Tennis Picks (December 31st)

It feels like yesterday we saw the end of the tennis season with both Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych helping the Czech Republic lift the Davis Cup a little under a week after Novak Djokovic had won the End of Year Championships at the O2 Arena.

It seems like the layers have been taking a casual approach to the first tournaments of the 2013 season, with some of the tournaments not having their outright winner prices up. That could be down to late withdrawals, while Andy Murray is the big favourite to retain his title in Brisbane.

All of that meant I am not going to make any outright selections to open this new season, but I will be making my picks from the action as always. At some point before the Australian Open, I will post a thread with things I am looking forward to in the 2013 season and also just updating how the 2012 season went, another profitable season from the tennis picks I made.

Let's hope for another wonderful season of action...


Jarkko Nieminen - 1.5 games v Julien Benneteau: Both of these players are likely to slip in the Rankings this season as their better days are behind them, but I like Jarkko Nieminen's chances as he has beaten Julien Benneteau in all 5 professional meetings.

Nieminen and Benneteau are similar players, but I do believe the Finnish player has had the better of the meetings because his form doesn't fluctuate as much as Benneteau's can.

Nieminen beat Benneteau in the Final in Sydney last season, winning that match 6-2, 7-5 and I think he has the mental edge to beat the Frenchman again.


Simone Bolelli v Daniel Gimeno-Traver & Victor Troicki v Bjorn Phau Double: The layers have not put up any of the handicap markets for the matches in Doha, so I'll stick these two players in a double.

Both should be too strong for their respective opponents, although I don't trust either player enough to make this more than a unit play. Simone Bolelli and Victor Troicki are the better hard court players than their opponents, although both are capable of playing stinkers. However, their opponents are also guilty of too many unforced errors and beating themselves so I'll chance this double.


MY PICKS: Jarkko Nieminen - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simone Bolelli & Victor Troicki Double @ 2.36 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2012

The last week of the NFL season is always a minefield to negotiate as you have to keep a real eye on incentive and whether Head Coaches are going to rest players ahead of the Play Offs.

The other factor is whether teams are still playing for their Head Coaches with Black Monday almost upon us. All of this adds up to taking a bit more care than usual in trying to negotiate Week 17.


New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I'll be taking the underdog in this one to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I am very surprised to see the Buffalo Bills as favourites of more than a field goal- This is a team that has lost 3 straight and shown very little Offensively in those games.

Second, it would be silly to ignore the fact that the Jets have won the last 6 in this Divisional series and they are 8-1 in the last 9. That run includes 4 wins on the road.

Third, I think the New York Jets players are still very much in line with what Rex Ryan wants to do at the club, while Buffalo have looked a little downbeat on how the season has developed.


Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: I think both of these clubs are locked into their positions and they won't be meeting one another in the Play Offs next week. However, I think the Coaches are taking a different stance on the game so I am taking the home favourites to cover for the following reasons:

First, the suggestion is that John Harbaugh will be resting players as he looks to get his Ravens side healthy... On the other hand, Marvin Lewis has been talking about how resting his starters did no good for the team last season and he will be playing his main men.

Second, the Bengals will want to prove themselves after knocking off the Steelers last week and they will want people to take them seriously by knocking off the other big boy in the AFC North.

Third, the Bengals did lose to Baltimore here last season, but they had beaten them in back to back games at home before that loss.


Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I'll back the Houston Texans in this game for the following reasons:

First, this game is much more important to the Texans than it is for the Colts- simply put, the Texans need to win to ensure they have home-field advantage in the Play Offs, while the Colts are definitely the Number 5 seed in the AFC.

Second, there is a real suggestion that Indianapolis will rest their starters- their Defense has stunk for the most part this season so I have little faith the second string will be able to stop the Houston starters. Without Andrew Luck, I don't see a backdoor cover.

Third, Houston have always played hard in Week 17 and they are 3-0-2 against the spread over the last 5 seasons in that spot.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: I'll back the underdog to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, I hate when a team needs to win- someone much more famous than me once said 'if you need to win, it's probably because you're a bad team'... The Giants need to win and hope a lot of good things go their way, but they have been playing badly in recent weeks so getting almost a touchdown head-start looks big.

Second, this is the Eagles Super Bowl- I think there is a lot of respect for Andy Reid and I believe the team will play hard for him even if they do come up a little short.

Third, the Eagles have owned the Giants in recent games in the series and they are 8-1 straight up in those games.


Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Chicago Bears are another that 'need' to win to give themselves a chance to make the Play Offs and I like their chances in this one for the following reasons:

First, the Detroit Lions just make far too many mistakes that kills their drives and they don't have any Offensive options outside of Calvin Johnson.

Second, injuries to the Defensive front four will make life a little easier for Jay Cutler to expose a soft Secondary.

Third, the Bears have owned this Divisional series, going 8-1 in the last 9 in the series. They did lose here last season, but had won 3 in a row on the road before that.


Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: The New England Patriots have a chance to wrap up one of the top two seeds in the AFC and I think they win this one in style for the following reasons:

First, I think Bill Belichick can scheme well enough to make it tough for the rookie Quarter Back Ryan Tannehill, while Tom Brady should be able to move the chains much more consistently.

Second, Miami are one of the best underdog teams to back in the NFL, but they are 1-4 against the spread in the last five seasons in Week 17, while going 0-3 as the underdog.

Third, New England won a close one last season at home against the Dolphins, but their previous 2 home wins were by double-digits.


Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: I like the Green Bay Packers in this one for the following reasons:

First, Green Bay have just as much motivation as Minnesota in this game with Play Off implications and they will want that bye next week in the first round of the Play Offs... Then I just believe they are the better team of the two.

Second, the Packers have won 5 straight in the series including back to back wins on the road at Minnesota.

Third, I expect Adrian Peterson to get some big numbers, but I also believe Christian Ponder will make a mistake or two that will be punished by Green Bay and allow them to win this game with the cover.


Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers Pick: I like the San Diego Chargers in this one for the following reasons:

First, Norv Turner is almost certainly going to lose his job as Head Coach of the Chargers at the end of the season, but the players do seem to like him and I think they give their all for him in this one.

Second, Oakland have just looked lethargic down the stretch and there are going to be some big personnel changes on the playing field and they look like a team that hasn't cared enough in recent games.

Third, the Raiders are also stating Terrelle Pryor in this one and I believe the San Diego Defense is good enough to take advantage of his inexperience and help the team to the win and cover


Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: Some of the line value has gone, but I still like the Dallas Cowboys with the points for the following reasons:

First, this looks like a very close game so getting the points is a big bonus to me. I think both teams will have a lot of success Offensively, so 3 points could be very big at the end of the day.

Second, the Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Washington and may have a better idea of what to expect from the Redskins the second time they play them this season.

Third, Dallas are 11-5 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons.

Fourth, the Redskins are just 4-10 against the spread as the home favourite in recent seasons.


MY PICKS: New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 3 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 3 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

College Football Bowl Games 2012

The first week of the Bowl Games are not the most interesting, but it is around ten days before the National Championship Game when things start picking up. This is the time when some of the bigger schools and the more interesting Bowl Games start taking shape.

I'll be making my picks throughout the next ten days and only when I think there is a school worth taking. My full reasons will be given with the picks, as always, but this has been a difficult year for me in the NCAA.


December 29th
Syracuse Orange v West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: I like the Syracuse Orange to keep this game close enough to cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the West Virginia Offense gets all the media attention, but the Syracuse Offense is under-rated and can certainly score a lot of points against this Mountaineers Defense.

Second, the Orange are well accustomed to seeing this West Virginia team and they have made life extremely difficult for Geno Smith in two previous meetings, only allowing 3 passing touchdowns but also creating 5 interceptions.

Third, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the spread in their last 3 Bowl Games when they have been set as the favourite.

Fourth, getting more than a field goal in this game looks fairly generous as the team that has the ball last could very easily win this game outright.


Oregon State Beavers v Texas Longhorns Pick: I like the Texas Longhorns to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, I think the Longhorns will rally together after a couple of their players were sent home for breaking curfew and with allegations of sexual assault floating around.

Second, I also believe the Texas Defense can make a couple of turnovers that will give them a chance to cover the spread even if they don't win outright.

Third, Oregon State have just begun to struggle down the stretch in the regular season and I am not sure they deserve to be more than a field goal favourite in this one.


January 1st
Michigan Wolverines v South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: I like the SEC's South Carolina Gamecocks to win and cover for the following reasons:

First, I think the SEC is faster and more athletic than the Big Ten and I believe South Carolina will find a way to slow down Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson and do something similar to what Alabama did on opening day of the season.

Second, I also believe the Gamecocks are better on both sides of the ball and have the playmakers to get things done.

Third, the Wolverines struggled against the best teams they played this season and South Carolina are in amongst those kind of schools and should do enough to take this game away from them.


Nebraska Cornhuskers v Georgia Bulldogs Pick: I like the Georgia Bulldogs to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, I think Mark Richt will have the Bulldogs fired up despite their heartbreaking loss in the SEC Championship Game.

Second, similar to what I said in the game above, I think the SEC are too athletic and too fast for the Big Ten teams.

Third, the Cornhuskers were crushed by the South Carolina Gamecocks in a Bowl Game last season and I don't have a lot of faith in a team that was crushed as comprehensively as they were against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.


Wisconsin Badgers v Stanford Cardinal Pick: I'll be backing the Stanford Cardinal to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I believe the Cardinal will have more success on both sides of the ball in this one and that should allow them to win this by a touchdown in my opinion.

Second, I also believe the consistency in the coaching staff at Stanford will see them home in this one.

Third, I am not a fan of the Big Ten and I do think Wisconsin will have a hard time in this one and likely to commit a key turnover late in the game that allow the Cardinal to cover this spread.


January 3rd
Oregon Ducks v Kansas State Wildcats Pick: Both of these schools are very similar in the way they their Offenses look to dictate games, but I just think there is enough about the Oregon Ducks to think they win and cover the spread.

I think this will have a similar feel to the Baylor-Kansas State game in which the Wildcats were just bludgeoned by a team that could score at will and I think Oregon will do the same here.

The added incentive in performing for Chip Kelly in what could be his final game at Oregon before moving into the NFL Head Coach ranks means I like the Ducks in this one.


January 4th
Texas A&M Aggies v Oklahoma Sooners Pick: It is such a shame that we have lost half a point on this line, but I am still going to back the Oklahoma Sooners with the head start in what looks like a really close game.

Johnny Manziel has been phenomenal this season, but there is a chance that Landry Jones can outshine him in this one as I think the latter will want to prove to NFL scouts that he is ready for the next level.

Oklahoma also have a strong recent record against the Aggies and I think Bob Stoops will have got a good game plan together with the time he has had to prepare for this game. I'd be surprised if the Sooners are blown out and the 3 points could be a lot at the end of the night.


January 7th
Notre Dame Fighting Irish v Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: Brian Kelly has openly talked about building his Notre Dame team in a similar manner to what he sees of Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide and they do look closely matched in the way they want to play this game.

Both teams will look to run the ball effectively and put their Quarter Back in a position to make some plays and manage the Offense to enough points and then let their Defense take over.

Both Defenses are amongst the best in the nation and at first glance, 9.5 points looks a big spread. However, I think the experience of Alabama and the fact that they are a lot more battle hardened having played in the SEC all season and I think they are going to win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

It'll likely be close for much of the contest, but I'll look for Alabama to make the plays that leads them to a 20-10 win.


MY PICKS: Syracuse Orange + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
South Carolina - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners + 3 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks (December 29-30)

So this is it... The final Premier League fixtures of 2012 are upon us and these are the final picks of 2012 from those set of games. I had an awful week last week which took away all of the profit earned this month with 7 straight losing picks as nothing quite went right.

It is best not too worry too much about that because it has still been a successful 5 months of the season and you just have to take the rough with the smooth.


Fulham v Swansea Pick: Martin Jol must be feeling the pressure somewhat as his Fulham side have been struggling for consistent results in recent weeks, but I do feel this game will present them with an opportunity to pick up three points and keep a nice buffer between themselves and the bottom three sides.

Fulham haven't been the same team of previous years, but that is unsurprising considering they loss the likes of Moussa Dembele and Clint Dempsey in the last transfer window. However, they have still got enough about them to win games like this even though they could only manage a 1-1 draw with Southampton here on Boxing Day.

One element in Fulham's favour is the fact that Swansea are likely missing Michu who has been an inspiring signing made by Michael Laudrup- without the Spaniard's feel for a goal, I think Swansea will struggle to get on the scoreboard and Fulham will sneak the win at odds against.


Manchester United v West Brom Pick: It was entertaining at Old Trafford on Boxing Day, but Sir Alex Ferguson will not want to be taken through the mill in this game and I expect Manchester United to come out with a little more control of this game.

West Brom have been very good this season and are a real surprise outfit, but they have lost 4 games away from home and 3 of those have come by a couple of goals at least and I fancy United will be the latest side to manage that against them.

United have beaten West Brom by at least 2 goals the last 4 times they have beaten them at Old Trafford and there are still plenty of goals in the side even without Wayne Rooney who won't be back in the line up until the second week of January.

I'll be looking for United to get on the front foot early and try and put this game to bed so they can then start thinking about the trip to Wigan Athletic on Tuesday.


Norwich City v Manchester City Pick: All is certainly not right at Manchester City and I truly believe that Pep Guardiola is being lined up to take over from Roberto Mancini who seemingly has lot the knack of getting the best out of a squad that cost multi-millions to put together.

Their loss at Sunderland hurt all the more with Manchester United's last winner against Newcastle United, but there is surely too much quality for them to continue failing to get the results they need desperately.

This won't be an easy game at Norwich City who have already beaten Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United here this season, although they were defeated by Liverpool and Chelsea. I think they can push Manchester City, but can they get a result?

Pinnacle are offering 2.63 that Norwich can get a result in this one and the current downbeat nature of City and their strangely lethargic performances makes that seem a big price to me.


Reading v West Ham United Pick: This is the biggest game of the season for Reading as I truly believe a failure to win could already signal the death knell for their Premier League future. A 0-0 home draw against Swansea on Boxing Day at least ended a run of 7 straight losses for the Royals, but that might be seen as two points dropped rather than one gained when it is all said and done in May.

I was surprised that Reading have now twice failed to score at home this season in the League, especially considering they have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their 11 home games in all competitions this season, including in losing efforts against Manchester United and Arsenal.

With the injuries in the West Ham United squad, there is every chance that Reading can reach that total again and I think the familiarity of playing West Ham may work to their favour. Reading beat West Ham 3-0 here and 2-4 at Upton Park last season as both were promoted from the Championship and I do think the 2.63 offered by Coral for at least 2 home goals looks a decent shout in this one.


Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: Alan Pardew has been put in his place by Sir Alex Ferguson in the latter's press conference on Friday, but the bigger issue may be a tiredness in the Newcastle United squad that would have come from putting in a big effort in the 4-3 loss at Old Trafford on Wednesday.

At the same time Arsenal would have been resting with their game against West Ham United being called off due to a planned tube strike and that should give the home side enough of an edge to see off Newcastle with a little more ease than Manchester United did.

I expect Arsenal's pace will expose a backline that struggled in that regards against Manchester United, and I also think the lack of creativity in the midfield will make it tough for Newcastle to keep hold of the ball for long enough to do any damage themselves.

Arsenal are 2.10 to win this game by a couple of goals at least and that is what I'll be picking in this one.


Everton v Chelsea Pick: This looks like being a tight, tense game and there won't be much between the sides when the final whistle is blown. In fact, I think it will be so tight that the game will end in a draw.

Everton have been one of those sides involved in a number of draws this season, including here at Goodison Park against Liverpool and Arsenal. I also am not convinced that Chelsea have definitely turned a corner and this looks the type of game where they would drop points.

Both sides would likely be happy with a draw when it is all said and done and it could become a vital point at the end of the season.


Queens Park Rangers v Liverpool Pick: Queens Park Rangers feel like they were very unlucky to lose their last game against West Brom at home and you have to think that Harry Redknapp will send them out with a point to prove knowing that the other sides down the bottom got some very good results on Saturday.

Liverpool are another side that may be looking at the transfer window in a bid to inject more life into a squad that looks a little tired at times. They do look ripe for the upset in this one having been beaten comfortably at Stoke City during the week.

This was also the game that got QPR the belief that they would survive last season and I think they look a big price to repeat those efforts in this one.


MY PICKS: Fulham @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet Fred (3 Units)
Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.63 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Reading Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.63 Coral (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Chelsea Draw @ 3.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Queens Park Rangers @ 4.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)



December Update: 15-19-1, + 0.21 Units (42 Units Staked, + 0.05 % Yield)

November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

NFL Week 16 Picks 2012

The last three weeks in the NFL, ever since Thanksgiving Day in fact, have been ridiculously hard to negotiate and each week I have had a few crappy things going against me which has made it even tougher.

It's just the way it has gone and what was proving to be a decent season has suddenly gone south very very quickly. Hopefully the next two weeks and the Play Offs will prove to be a better time period.

I will say that you need to be careful in trying to determine the motivation of teams and whether they are still playing hard or not at all when capping the last couple of weeks. Another factor to look out for is the teams that are secure in a certain spot in the Play Offs who decide that they are going to rest their starters or they are going to pull them in games.


Oakland Raiders @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I like the Carolina Panthers in this game to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Panthers are definitely playing better football of the two and are on a bit of a roll at the moment. On the other hand, Oakland have won just 2 of their last 8 games and both of those were against the awful Kansas City Chiefs.

Second, I don't like when teams travel from West to East to play an early afternoon game, but that is exactly the situation that the Raiders find themselves in for this game.

Third, Oakland are just 6-13 against the spread as the road underdog when playing non-Divisional teams.


Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I think the Green Bay Packers are going to be far too strong for the Tennessee Titans for the following reasons:

First, the Packers have a lot of motivation for this game as they can give themselves a real chance to still finish with the number 2 seed in the NFC and get the additional time off to rest in the Play Offs. Tennessee don't have a lot left to play for and may be more concentrated on beating Jacksonville at home in their final game of the season.

Second, Aaron Rodgers is 8-4 against the spread when favoured to win by double digits, going 1-0 in that spot this season.

Third, I don't like Tennessee's chances with the number of blow outs they have had against some of the better teams in the NFL and I just don't know how they slow down the Packers in this one.


Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I know the Dolphins had a big win last week, but I still don't like them as a home favourite and will be picking the Bills to keep this close enough to cover for the following reasons:

First, the Dolphins can still make the Play Offs so the pressure will be on them here and Buffalo would like nothing less than to put out one of their Divisional rivals so should play much harder than they did against Seattle last week in Toronto.

Second, the Dolphins are just 3-11 against the spread as the home favourite in a Divisional game.

Third, Miami are just 10-33-1 against the spread as the home favourite.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I like the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Steelers know they are drinking in the last chance saloon when it comes to their Play Off hopes, but they are the better team and Cincinnati have struggled when playing the best in the NFL.

Second, Andy Dalton is just 3-6 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.

Third, the Steelers knocked off the Bengals on the road earlier this season and have now won 5 games in a row in the series, including back to back blow outs at Heinz Field.


Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: I like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I think the Kansas City Chiefs have given up on this season judging by their horrible effort in a loss at the Oakland Raiders last weekend and the focus may be on the end of the season and hoping to pick up the number 1 pick in the Draft.

Second, Indianapolis can clinch a Play Off berth with a win in this one and I think Andrew Luck will make enough big plays to see the Colts pull away in this one.

Third, I know Brady Quinn has screwed me with his mixed performances over the last two weeks, but the guy is terrible and is struggling a lot more without Dwayne Bowe so I don't know how the Chiefs make enough plays to stay in this game if they fall into a big deficit.


New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: A lot of credit needs to go to the Dallas Cowboys for their late comebacks the past two weeks, but I still think they are a tough favourite to back so will be picking the New Orleans Saints for the following reasons:

First, as I say, I am not convinced Dallas are ready to be made the favourites in home games where they have disappointed so often. They are just 4-16 against the spread as the home favourite over the last three seasons.

Second, the New Orleans Saints have no pressure on their shoulders and they can match Dallas point for point as long as Drew Brees continues from where he left off last week. Brees should be fully motivated as he gets to play in his home State.

Third, the Saints have won 3 straight games in Dallas and they are 6-1 in the last 7 games overall.


Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: I am going to take the underdog Philadelphia Eagles to make this a tough game for the Washington Redskins for the following reasons:

First, it has been a horrible season for the Philadelphia Eagles, but I expect them to play really hard in their final two games against Divisional rivals as they would love to put the spanner in the works if at all possible.

Second, this is a new dynamic for the Redskins as it will be only the second time that they are favoured on the road- they lost the first time against St Louis and they may just take a breather now that Robert Griffin III has been cleared for them.

Third, Washington know they cannot afford to blow their beans in this one as they have a big game with the Cowboys on deck and I can see the Eagles at least putting in one big effort at home and even grabbing a back door cover.


New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I think the desperate New York Giants will do enough to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Baltimore have backed into the Play Offs, but they are in the Play Offs and may be looking to see how they can get things going for the post-season and not overly concern themselves with this game. On the other hand, the Giants are off a humiliating loss last week in Atlanta and can't afford a loss as wins for Dallas and Washington will see them out of the post-season.

Second, the Giants are 18-10 against the spread as the road favourite in recent seasons.

Third, Baltimore have rarely been set as the home underdog, but they are 2-6 against the spread in that spot when playing non-Divisional teams in recent seasons.

Fourth, the Ravens may be more concerned with their game at Cincinnati next week which could decide the Division and may be overlooking the Giants who need this game a lot more than Baltimore do.


Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I am going to back the Chicago Bears to get something going in their bid to reach the Play Offs and win this game with some room to spare for the following reasons:

First, both Offensive Lines have struggled but I would favour Jay Cutler over Ryan Lindley at the Quarter Back position.

Second, I think the Cardinals were very good at creating turnovers last weekend, but I do like Chicago's Defense a little more in this one and think they will  create enough short-fields to win this game going away.

Third, the Bears are a decent road favourite, going 8-3-1 against the spread in that spot over the last few years.


San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I'll have an interest in the Seattle Seahawks in this game to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Seattle have been a really tough home team for years, going 25-12 against the spread in that spot over the last few seasons.

Second, this game is more important to the Seahawks than it is for San Francisco and I think they are going to come out to show they are one of the best teams in the NFC and a real threat to reach the Super Bowl.

Third, San Francisco have not won 3 games in a row at any point this season and they are coming off an emotional win over New England when they were pulled back from a 28 point lead but still managed to find some reserves of energy to win.

Fourth, the home team has dominated the recent series by going 6-1 in the last 7 games in this series.


MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 7 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (3 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (3 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Weekend Football (December 22-23)

All I know about this time of the season is how busy it gets and fixtures come around thick and fast, but there has been another week between games and this is the final calm before the fast run of games that are coming our way in the next ten days.

The most notable news of the week has to come out of the Champions League with a number of eye-catching ties, particularly the one involving my Manchester United and Real Madrid- the media should have an absolute blast with that fixture as it involves the return of Cristiano Ronaldo, the relationship between Jose Mourinho and Sir Alex Ferguson and obviously the history of the two clubs that have won a combined 12 European Cups.

It was actually the one tie that I wanted to avoid until later in the tournament, but I have begun to look at it another way- either United are going to show they have the class to win the Champions League, something I have very much doubted this season, or they are going to go out of the tournament and won't have to worry about the strain on the squad that Manchester City will not be facing come the end of the season.


Anyway, get ready for a feast of football over this Christmas period... These are my picks for the weekend games in the Premier League.


Wigan Athletic v Arsenal Pick: On Monday night, I had recommended backing over 3.5 goals in the Reading-Arsenal game and that was never in doubt with the way Reading were defending in the contest.

This is another game that could go the same way as Wigan are really struggling for defensive numbers and the fixture is one that has routinely produced goals in the past. The last 4 League games at the DW Stadium have all ended with at least 4 goals scored and I think both sides are good for at least one in this contest.

Arsenal also can put all their attention on this game now that they managed to get their Boxing Day clash with West Ham United called off (despite Fulham and Queens Park Rangers playing home games in London on the same day). This could be a decent bit of entertainment for those who catch it on Saturday afternoon.


Manchester City v Reading Pick: Reading looked absolutely shocking defensively against Arsenal and even the way they played after leading Manchester United in a recent game was disappointing for them to say the least.

That kind of defending will absolutely be punished by Manchester City, a team that looked a lot better at Newcastle United last weekend when pairing Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez up front. City have the power and creativity to open Reading up in this one and anything less would be a surprise to me.

City will also want to up the pressure on Manchester United who won't be playing until Sunday. I just think they can get on the front foot here and put away a Reading side that could easily be more focused on their up coming games against Swansea and West Ham United at home over the next week.


Southampton v Sunderland Pick: Adam Lallana is missing for Southampton in this game, but I still think they can pick up a huge three points against a Sunderland side that have struggled away from home.

Goals have been a problem for Sunderland, but they have begun to find their way on that front. However, they have also looked like a side that will struggle for clean sheets and there is no doubting that Southampton create chances and cause problems for sides, particularly at their St Mary's Stadium.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise if both teams score in this one, but I think Southampton will be a little too strong and earn the three points that will see them move above Sunderland in the League table.


Tottenham Hotspur v Stoke City Pick: Tottenham Hotspur have struggled for consistency this season and they do concede a lot of late goals, but the 1-0 win over Swansea last Sunday will do a lot for their confidence. However, it won't be easy against Stoke who have been one of the toughest teams to beat in the League.

Stoke have also managed to pick up results at White Hart Lane in 2 of their 4 visits since returning to the top flight and they have scored at least one goal in all of those games. They have also found the next at Manchester United this season so I wouldn't be surprised if they did score in this one.

I still can't help but think that Spurs find a way to win and backing them to do so in a game where both sides score looks like the call from this one.


Liverpool v Fulham Pick: This might look a crazy pick at first sight, but there is no way in a million years that Fulham deserve to be 2.80 to avoid defeat at Liverpool. The home side have struggled to turn out wins at Anfield in the entire calender year and I know Fulham are not the best on their travels.

However, they have earned a result in 3 of their last 4 games at Anfield and Fulham can also point to draws at Arsenal and Chelsea to suggest they are capable of causing a surprise here.

Sometimes the layers look at a teams name and they automatically price them far lower than they should be and I really believe this is one of those occasions. In this calender year alone, the likes of Aston Villa (twice), Newcastle, Stoke (twice), West Brom, Fulham and Wigan have all got a result at Anfield so 2.80 looks remarkable value to me.


Swansea v Manchester United Pick: Swansea have been good enough so far this season to think they won't be going down this season, but they have also been a little streaky- however, they have been better at home and I expect them to cause Manchester United some real problems in this one despite losing 3-4 to Norwich City in their last home game.

One thing United have been good for this season is for entertaining the fans, although most will tell you they could do without United falling behind before they start playing this time. The away form has been brilliant again this season and it is important to note that United have won 7 of their 9 away games this season even though they have only kept 1 clean sheet.

The return of Nemanja Vidic should improve the defensive side of things for United going forward, but that might take a little time to settle. I still think United are going to be too good for Swansea in their current form, but don't be surprised if Swansea become the latest side to score against United in this one.


Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: There clearly wasn't really much of a jet lag issue for Chelsea as they brushed aside Leeds United in the Capital One Cup on Wednesday evening, but I expect this one to be a little tougher for them as Aston Villa have started putting some performances together.

Villa have also performed admirably in visits to Stamford Bridge in recent seasons and I definitely think the layers are under-estimating their chances of causing something of an upset here.

That is not to say that I think Chelsea won't win this game, just that I believe their defensive issues could be exposed and I think Aston Villa are capable of scoring at least one goal in the game, albeit in a losing effort.


MY PICKS: Wigan Athletic-Arsenal Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.63 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Southampton to Win and Over 2.5 Goals scored in the match @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Both teams to score and Tottenham Hotspur to win @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Fulham + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Both teams to score and Manchester United to win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Both teams to score and Chelsea to win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)



December Update: 15-12-1, + 8.21 Units (34 Units Staked, + 24.1 % Yield)

November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

NBA Picks December 2012

The first month of the NBA season went pretty well, although I have kept my powder dry in the last three weeks as I was just hitting a poor run of form and decided it was better to take a watching brief rather than going 'chasing'.

It has been a very interesting start to the new season, particularly for a New York Knicks fan as myself with the team currently having the best record in the Eastern Conference and already knocked off Miami twice this season, once without Carmelo Anthony.

The Heat have actually been a little lethargic at times to open the season with the knowledge that they can likely beat 85% of the teams in the NBA with a little burst of quality and they have sleep-walked through the majority of games and are doing just enough to win.

However, they are at least winning, while the LA Lakers have made a horrible start to the new season. Injuries are hurting them and exposing a roster that doesn't have a lot of depth and I think they will likely go through more teething problems before things settle down. I still think the Lakers will make the Play Offs, but they don't look the team to beat in the Western Conference... That remains the Oklahoma City Thunder who have suffered no noticeable hangover from losing in the NBA Finals last June and the fact that they have lost James Harden just days before the new season began.

This is still very early in the new season and the NBA is currently playing second fiddle to the NFL and the season won't settle down into a real shape until the new calender year.

December 11th

New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The New York Knicks may have the best record in the Eastern Conference at this early stage of the new season, but one result that would have grated on the management and the fans would have been the loss to the Brooklyn Nets earlier in the season.

The chance for redemption is high in this one for the Knicks as they are playing the better basketball of the two teams. I also think the Knicks will not be overlooking this game for the visit of the LA Lakers on Thursday night and they have won 3 of their last 4 road games since the loss in Brooklyn.

The Nets have just been off in recent games with 3 consecutive home losses, and I just think the scoring power of the Knicks carries them over in this one and level the season series at 1-1.


December 12th
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz Pick: The San Antonio Spurs are once again one of the hotter regular season teams a year after finishing with the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference and I think they will be too strong for the Utah Jazz in what is traditionally a difficult road game for teams.

However, the Spurs have won 3 of their last 4 games here in Utah and they have been scoring a lot of points coming into this one. Greg Popovich also seems to get the best out of his team when they are due to play on back to back nights, going 19-1 straight up in the first of those games, including winning 10 in a row.

San Antonio are 8-2 against the spread in that 10 game winning run and I think they improve that here.


December 14th
Both of the previous games I went with were a couple rolls of the ball away from being winners, but instead I got a push and a loser so decided to take off yesterday with the small choices I had.

Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic Pick: I like the Orlando Magic in the underdog role to keep this game close, even though they have been inconsistent all season.

However, I like the idea that Golden State Warriors could be on an emotional letdown spot following their shocking win over the Miami Heat a couple of nights ago. The Warriors have been very good this season, but it could be tough for them to keep their level up against a much weaker team than Miami.

Golden State have won 5 games in a row, but the last team to beat them was Orlando on the West Coast. The Warriors also have a shocking 1-10 run in the first of back to back nights play while Orlando are 7-4 in that same situation.


Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder seemed to be even more focused to right the wrongs of losing in the NBA Finals last season and are not missing James Harden nor suffering from any hangover from their defeat to the Miami Heat.

They have won 9 straight games, going 7-2 against the spread, and they have three days before they have to play again so they can focus completely on this game. The close win over the New Orleans Hornets will have focused them more and I think they take that out on the Kings.

Sacramento have been beaten comfortably in their last 2 games and I think the Thunder have too much scoring power for them. This is the last of a four game road trip and they may just be looking forward to playing at home and could be beaten with a bit of ease in this one.


Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Denver are one of the best home teams in the NBA so I was a little surprised that they are only giving up 1.5 points in this one against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has lost 3 of their last 5 games in a very promising start to the season.

Much of Memphis' promising start has come from their games at home and although they have won at Oklahoma City, defeats at San Antonio and the LA Clippers suggests this will be another tough ask for them.

Denver did lose their last home game against the Grizzlies, but are 18-2 straight up against them in the last 20 times they have hosted them, while also being 13-7 against the spread so I'll back them here.


December 15th
LA Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The LA Clippers are the best team in Los Angeles and it has been a long time since people could say that... They have been in very good form and the additional rest they have before this game should stand them in good stead for this one.

The Clippers have been playing very effectively defensively and I think they can make enough stops to let their Offense take over this game. The Bucks played last night and they are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games when playing the second of back to back nights play.

LA have not played well here in Milwaukee in recent games, but I think the Clippers have enough on both sides of the court to think they change that here.


December 20th
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The Miami Heat continue to sleep-walk through games at times this season, but they should be focused to play the short-handed Dallas Mavericks after losing the NBA Finals in 2011 to this team.

The Heat have beaten Dallas in the two games since those Finals, but the Mavericks are definitely a better team at home than they are on the road so it won't be easy. However, the spot looks a good one for the Heat to have a statement win on national TV and I think they cover the spread.


December 22nd
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat are in a good spot here as they managed to rest their starters in the blow out of the Dallas Mavericks and have a few days to prepare for their next game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Miami have been playing better defensively and I think they make life tough for Utah in this one, a team that may be looking forward to ending their Eastern road trip and heading back home.

Utah are also just 2-9 in their last 11 games when playing the first of back to back games and they are just 1-9-1 against the spread in those games.

LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The spread shows how close the layers think this game will be, although I am of the belief that the Golden State Warriors will be a little too good for the LA Lakers and win the game.

However, instead I am going to back the over 208.5 total points in this one- the over is 6-3 in the last 9 at Golden State between these teams and both have been scoring plenty of points but also struggling in defensive situations.

I am expecting both sides to crack the 105 point mark to see this one go over the total points.


December 23rd
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks Pick: I like the New York Knicks to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves who will be missing Kevin Love in this game.

The Knicks have been very strong at the Garden and I think the Minnesota team could be a little flat after snapping the Oklahoma City Thunder winning streak. This is also a road game between home games and I think New York's scoring power will be too much to overcome.


December 25th
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: I am taking a couple of underdogs to give themselves Christmas cheer in the NBA, starting with the Boston Celtics as they visit Brooklyn to take on the Nets.

Boston should be fired up after getting into a series of pushing matches with the Nets in their last meeting, one which saw Rajon Rondo ejected and then suspended. This veteran squad is also looking to avoid their longest losing run on the road since 2007.

I also don't trust Brooklyn who have struggled in the role of favourites and who are struggling to put teams away with consistency.


New York Knicks @ LA Lakers Pick: I am also backing my favourite team, the New York Knicks to at least push the LA Lakers in this game.

Carmelo Anthony will likely have a big game to 'impress' former Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni and I also think there is more chemistry in the New York team at this moment in time. Granted, the Lakers have won 4 in a row, but they could easily have lost the last 2 games and I think the Knicks impose their slower tempo on proceedings while also being able to deal with the Lakers Offense having seen it for some time in New York.

I would be surprised if this isn't close until the final buzzer so the points look healthy.


Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls: One of the hottest teams in the NBA at the moment, the Houston Rockets look like they are being given a lot of points in this one and I think the highest scoring team in the League keeps it close against one of the premier Defenses in the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago have been playing well despite laying an egg in the blow out loss at Atlanta, but that was a bad emotional spot for them. I think they will put in a huge effort in this one, but Houston are scoring too many points to be given this head start and I'll take them to cover.


December 26th
Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I like the home team's chances of covering the spread in this one as I think the personnel, particularly Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, do provide a match up problem for the Brooklyn Nets' best players in Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.

Brooklyn also took a bit of a beat down mentally from the Boston Celtics and have been awful against Milwaukee recently. In fact, they have lost 12 in a row in the series with 6 defeats in a row when they have visited the Bucks.

All of those 6 wins have come by at least double-digits and I think Milwaukee are too good for them here.


Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: This is a terrible spot for the Houston Rockets as the game is sandwiched between the Christmas Day game at Chicago and the visit to the San Antonio Spurs, but 5.5 points head start does look a touch high.

Houston are playing with a lot of momentum and they have the scoring power to at least keep this game close. They also have a decent record at Minnesota, despite losing their last game here, and I think the youthful nature of the Rockets team will be enough to see them through this one.

Hopefully the Rockets realise that beating a potential rival for a Play Off berth is enough to concentrate their minds between much more 'glamourous' games.


December 27th
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Dallas have been struggling all season and they are the kind of team that seems to drop their heads when they fall behind. That could be exposed by a powerful Offense like the Oklahoma City Thunder who will be looking to get back to winning ways.

The Thunder were involved in another loss to the Miami Heat on Christmas Day, but they have been very good at home and will be looking for their 11th win. I just think they have more chances to get things going in this one and I like their chances of covering this double-digit spread.


December 28th
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I just feel the absence of Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen will inspire LeBron James to take the Miami Heat on his back and he will help them continue their recent dominance of the Detroit Pistons.

The Heat are playing as well as anybody in the NBA at the moment and they will want to prove they can get things going on the road and win their 3rd in a row on their travels. The spread looks a reasonable one for them to cover, even on the road.

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Atlanta Hawks should be able to win their 4th straight at Cleveland in this one as they should have a big edge when it comes to the Center spot, while Josh Smith looked very comfortable in their win over the Detroit Pistons.

The Hawks should be a little more focused on the road against one of the poorer teams in the Eastern Conference than they were against Detroit and they will want to put the record straight after losing at home against Cleveland earlier this season.

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: This looks the perfect emotional let down spot for the Dallas Mavericks who should have beaten the Oklahoma City Thunder last night and now play a team that had won 3 straight at the American Airlines Center before their last meeting here.

Denver should be much more confident from their beating of the LA Lakers in their last gmae and I just feel the Nuggets will be able to bring that in here and maybe take advantage of a tired Dallas team.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The Golden State Warriors look like a team that will have too much scoring power for the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that may be over-rated from their one win over Memphis in their last game.

The 76ers have not been great on the road this season and could be short-handed which leaves me favouring the home side to cover.


December 29th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Pick: I just think this is a tough spot for the Houston Rockets who are playing their fourth game in five days and they are just off a tough loss at the San Antonio Spurs last night.

Oklahoma City haven't been playing that well, but they have players that can expose a Rockets Defense that allows a lot of points and they may just have enough to cover the spread.


December 31st
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Pick: I like the chances of the Miami Heat to turn around their recent road defeats in this one as they face a short-handed Orlando Magic team that are struggling to keep up with their opponents.

Orlando will make it a fight as this is an in-State rivalry, but there is too much in this Heat team to continue performing badly on the road and I like them to cover the big spread.


Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both of these teams are capable of putting up big points and I think this will certainly be a high-scoring game.

However, I like the Houston Rockets to cover as I think the Atlanta team have played a lot of basketball while being short-handed and they have regularly struggled in visits to this part of Texas.


Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Spurs have been playing as good basketball as anyone at the moment and I think they are too experienced for a Brooklyn Nets team that has struggled to find an identity.

The Spurs have dominated the Nets in recent games in the series and I think they get away from them in this one too.

MY PICKS: 11/12 New York Knicks - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/12 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/12 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 13 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/12 Denver Nuggets - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/12 LA Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/12 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/12 Miami Heat - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/12 Golden State Warriors-LA Lakers Over 208.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/12 New York Knicks - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 New York Knicks + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 Houston Rockets + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Houston Rockets + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/12 Atlanta Hawks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/12 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/12 San Antonio Spurs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Miami Heat - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
31/12 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

December Update: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units

November Final: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 2013: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units
Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NFL Week 14 Picks 2012

Sometimes you just have to take your medicine, but the last two weeks has really bothered me with the number of crappy things that have happened to my picks that has left me with two terrible weeks under the belt.

Last week was probably the worst of all as I only liked three picks and all three let me down in ridiculous ways: New Orleans lost by 10 in Atlanta, but should have covered and maybe even won the game as they managed to put up a lot more yards than the Falcons. Just to rub it in though, the Saints scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery in the 4th Quarter which was rightly taken away.

While that officiating was correct, the week before the officials screwed up the spot in the Baltimore Ravens win at San Diego and allowed the Ravens to win the game and beat out my pick again.

Back to last week, Dallas are up 11 points and have run the clock down to 30 seconds left and are punting the ball back to the Eagles who have no time outs left... All they have to do is not give up a punt return touchdown and the Cowboys will likely win the game as there isn't much Nick Foles has done in the last Quarter to suggest he can produce a scoring drive.

It was not to be as Dallas allow the punt return with at least 4 players in a position to make a tackle and it feels like the millionth time that the Cowboys have screwed up a cover by a lack on intensity in tackling and shooting themselves in the foot.

Then the final rub was in the New York Giants game where the Giants dominated the game in time of possession but kept killing themselves with penalties to prevent drives from turning into touchdowns- let me make this statistic clear... It was the most penalties given up by New York in TWO years and I would say the majority of them came on the Offensive side of the ball and the Giants ended up 1 point losers.


Anyway, I had to vent a little as that has ruined all the good work from Week 11 and these are the picks for the coming week.


Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins Pick: I like the underdog Baltimore Ravens to at least cover the spread for the following reasons:

First , Baltimore are a team that has regularly bounced back from losses and haven't lost 2 straight games since 2009. They are also 15-8 against the spread in their last 23 games following a home loss.

Second, I understand it was a tough emotional loss for the Ravens last week against Pittsburgh, but they are still in with a shot of finishing in one of the top two seeds in the AFC so I can't imagine they will overlook this game, while Washington are off 3 successive Divisional wins and could have a let down moment.

Third, I just don't trust Washington as the home favourite considering they are 1-7 against the spread in that spot in recent seasons.

However, Robert Griffin III is playing so well at the moment that I won't go too deep on this pick, especially with the Baltimore injuries to consider on the Defensive side of the ball.


San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: I'll back the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Steelers know they cannot afford to drop any games against AFC teams with their best route into the Play Offs likely going to come through the Wild Card spot. The return of Ben Roethlisberger makes them a more dangerous team going into the post-season.

Second, the Chargers are out of the Play Off race and have looked like a team that isn't focused at the moment with the expected Head Coach change up coming.

Third, San Diego also have a poor record in the Eastern Time Zone for an early game, going 5-8 against the spread in that spot in recent games.


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: I like the Indianapolis Colts to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Colts have dominated the recent series between these two Divisional rivals and have already knocked off the Titans on the road this season.

Second, I think Andrew Luck will make more big plays and less mistakes than Jake Locker and that could be the difference between a cover and not.

Third, Tennessee have struggled when playing teams with winning records under Mike Munchak, going 2-8 against the spread in that spot since the beginning of last season.

Fourth, this is the third Divisional game in a row for the Titans so they could be a little physically worn out, while the Colts should be on a high after their come from behind win against the Detroit Lions last week and with an AFC Wild Card spot within their grasp.


Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: This is a big Divisional game with Play Off implications, but I am backing the Chicago Bears to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, the Bears beat down the Vikings earlier this season at home and they have won 6 in a row in the series, including on their last 2 visits to Minnesota, while covering the spread in all of those games.

Second, the continuing absence of Percy Harvin is huge for the Vikings and even the fact that Chicago are missing Tim Jennings and Brian Urlacher from their Defense, I still think they can cause Christian Ponder to turn the ball over.

Third, after the fast start to the season, Minnesota have come off the pace in recent weeks and I think they are wearing down on both sides of the ball, although Adrian Peterson is playing at an exceptionally high level.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I like the home underdog to do enough to keep this close for the following reasons:

First, since Cam Newton has arrived at Carolina, the Panthers have been close in all 3 games against the Falcons including a 2 point loss earlier this season.

Second, I think the Panthers can also have more consistent success moving the ball in this one and I also think they are going to leave everything on the line with this being the last big home game they play this season in an otherwise disappointing season.

Third, Atlanta have virtually got the Number 1 seed in the NFC locked up, but I think they may also have motivated Carolina when Matt Ryan told them to 'get off his fucking field' earlier in the season in that 2 point win and I think it could be a tough day for him.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: I'll back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the spread in this one for the following reasons:

First, the Eagles are still giving up far too many big plays in the passing game and I think the likes of Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and Dallas Clark could all have big games in this one.

Second, how do Philadelphia get up for this game after putting in all they have in their loss to Dallas last week when they led for much of the game?

Third, these two teams are at opposite ends of the market when it comes to results against the spread with Tampa Bay covering a lot in recent weeks and the Eagles being on a 1-6 run.


Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I'll have a small interest in the Miami Dolphins to stay within the spread for the following reasons:

First, Miami are one of the better road underdogs in the NFL and this looks a lot of points to be giving them despite the trip out West. The Dolphins are 23-9-1 against the spread as the road underdog over the last few seasons.

Second, this game comes right in the middle of a tough set for the 49ers and it is easy to think they could overlook the Dolphins after back to back road games at New Orleans and St Louis (where they lost last week) and travelling to New England and Seattle following this game.

Not a lot of reasons for this pick, but it is easy to think the 49ers have a let down spot and not necessary go for a win that covers a big spread.


New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Pick: Drew Brees owes me after pretty much knocking me out of two Fantasy pools thanks to his performance at Atlanta last week and I think he can bounce back in this one for the following reasons:

First, both Defenses have struggled against the pass so I think this has all the makings of a game that could be decided by which team has the ball last in the contest... Getting more than a field goal in that situation looks very generous.

Second, New Orleans have played well against the Giants and seem to match up well against them, winning the last 3 in a row although 2 of those were in the Superdome.

Third, I just think the Brees performance against Atlanta will inspire him to have a big game against this New York Giants Secondary on Sunday and maybe even get close to pulling the upset outright.

Fourth, the Giants are a poor home favourite and are just 6-11-1 against the spread in that situation when playing non-Divisional opponents at home.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I am backing the road underdog to keep this game close for the following reasons:

First, Detroit have recently given Aaron Rodgers plenty of issues and they have a Defensive front that will cause this Offensive Line all sort of problems.

Second, the Lions have been putting up a lot of yards at the moment and I think they can expose a Green Bay Secondary that has given up a lot of yards, while Matt Stafford should have time to hook up with Calvin Johnson without Clay Matthews in the line up.

Third, the injuries on the Packers Defense will give the Lions a chance to even grab a backdoor cover in this one and this is the last game where they can have a real impact on the Division (Detroit play Chicago in Week 17, but the Bears could already have a Play Off place wrapped up by then and it wouldn't be as important as this game to the fans).


MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bwin (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Detroit Lions + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks (December 8-10)

Let's face facts here- there is only one game of importance to me this weekend and I am beginning to feel like a nervous wreck in anticipation of it.

It's the calm before the storm and I just know it is going to be a game that puts me through the wringer.

These are my picks from the weekend football after a pretty good start to December. Let us hope that continues as the month moves on.


Wigan Athletic v Queens Park Rangers Pick: This is a big game for both sides, especially for Queens Park Rangers who could be dead and buried in the Premier League with yet another defeat.

However, I think QPR will create chances in this game against a Wigan team that are down to their bare bones when it comes to defensive personnel in this one and they are not exactly a solid defensive team anyway with 7 of their last 8 home games in the Premier League seeing them concede at least 2 goals.

On the other hand, it is likely that Wigan will look to use the old saying of 'attack being the best form of defence' and I think they will also get opportunities as long as they not given another harsh sending off as they did at Newcastle United last Monday night.

Wigan have only failed to score against Chelsea and Manchester City this season at home and have beaten Reading and West Ham United here so this looks a game that has all the makings of goals and that will be my pick.


Sunderland v Chelsea Pick: Rafa Benitez did earn his first win as manager of Chelsea in the simple beating of Nordsjaelland during the week, but it will be a different test for them at the Stadium of Light. However, this does seem like a good time to play Sunderland as they have really been struggling for form and may be more interested in their big home game against Reading coming up during the week.

Chelsea have a good record here at Sunderland and I think they will likely have a bit too much for a team that has struggled to score goals all season. Sunderland have only scored 3 goals in their last 5 home games in all competitions, and even one of those was an own goal.

However, Chelsea haven't been the best defensively so I expect Sunderland to have some chances to up their goal tally in this one. It is hard to trust either one of these sides, but I just feel the added importance of Chelsea earning a win during the week, even in  a futile effort to remain in the Champions League, will help them get through here.

I can see Chelsea picking up the three points, but by the minimum of margins.


Southampton v Reading Pick: After watching Reading at first hand last week against Manchester United, it is clear that their defending leaves a lot to be desired, while they are effective going forward.

With Southampton having a similar policy, this looks like a game that could be one of the higher scoring ones over the course of the whole weekend.

Neither team is better defensively than going forward so neither will sit back, although sometimes a 'relegation six pointer' can be tense affairs that stifles the creative players as managers are scared to lose rather than going to win the game. In saying that, I don't think either Brian McDermott or Nigel Adkins fall into that category and I think there is every chance we see at least 4 goals shared in this one.

The corresponding fixture ended 1-3 to Reading last season when both were promoted to the Premier League and I'll be looking for goals in this one.


Manchester City v Manchester United Pick: The biggest game of the weekend comes from the Etihad Stadium and I am both not looking forward to it and asking what it to be brought on.

I would be surprised if either of these teams decide to go all out attack for this fixture and am particularly concerned that Sir Alex Ferguson will set out United to defend in a manner similar to the game in April that effectively handed City the inside track to the Premier League title.

If the performance is as tepid on that evening, it will be inevitable that City will find the breakthrough and likely win the game. However, their swagger is not the same as at this stage last season when they were blitzing teams off the park and Arsenal, Everton and Swansea City have all limited City to just 1 goal here.

I know all the talk ahead of the game will be the amount of attacking talent both teams possess, but even United with all that ability have been held goalless at Everton and Norwich City this season and I just think the chances for goals in this game are not as great as the layers seem to think.

I am actually expecting a tight game that may only be decided by a single goal or finish as a 1-1 draw... The last 6 League games here have all be low-scoring games and I think we see more of the same on Sunday.


Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of Tottenham Hotspur supporters I know seem to be upset with the team performances and it seems the results they are obtaining are a form of smoke and mirrors to whether the team actually deserves those points.

They face the draw specialists of the Premier League in Everton and will be missing the services of Gareth Bale, a big loss in a game where the counter attack could be effective as Everton push forward.

Everton have 8 draws from their League games this season and have drawn 3 of their last 4 at Goodison Park, but they have been unfortunate to an extent. They just haven't put teams away when they have them under the cosh, but I think they will be too strong for Spurs in this one.

I just feel Spurs are a touch vulnerable at the back and the likes of Maruoane Fellaini and Nikica Jelavic will be able to cause plenty of problems. Everton have also beaten Spurs the last 2 times they have visited Goodison and I like the home side at odds against for a small interest.


West Ham United v Liverpool Pick: West Ham United were really impressive against Chelsea in the second half last week and if they can take that form into this game, I really fancy them to beat Liverpool and I don't quite no why they are the underdogs in this game.

Liverpool are missing their one and only centre forward in Luis Suarez and I struggle to see how they will score the goals without his presence in the side. Suarez either creates or scores the majority of the goals that Liverpool have scored so his absence is huge and there is a chance that Liverpool will not be able to play with a recognised striker.

That could give West Ham the chance to get on the front foot and I think they have been playing really well in recent weeks and could ride the momentum of last week to another win in front of their own fans this week.

At the prices, it would be silly not to have a small interest in the home side to win this game.


MY PICKS: Wigan Athletic-Queens Park Rangers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chelsea to win by 1 Goal (English Handicap Draw) @ 3.80 Stan James (1 Unit)
Southampton-Reading Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Everton @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 3.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)



December Update: 9-7, + 3.70 Units (18 Units Staked, + 20.6 % Yield)

November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks (December 4-6)

This is the final round of games in the Champions League and the Europa League Group Stage and that does mean there are a number of teams that will rest players in anticipation of domestic League games with most of the scenarios for qualification already completed.

Therefore, you have to be careful in trying to second guess managers and what their policies will be and I would certainly suggest listening to as many press conferences as possible to get an idea as to what each manager is thinking ahead of their games.

Some teams also don't put so much faith in finishing top of their individual Groups as others, especially when you consider Real Madrid will be a 'second seed' when it comes to the draw which takes place on Thursday 20th December for the last 16. As Jose Mourinho said, it isn't much of a 'reward' to win a Group and potentially be drawn with Real Madrid who are certainly one of the leading contenders for the Champions League title this season.

While there are some games that will see much changed line ups, we also can see some strange results at this stage or convenient scores set up by teams... Shakhar Donetsk and Juventus could easily play out a draw which would send both sides through to the last 16 at the expense of Chelsea, regardless of what the current European Champions do in their final game against Nordsjaelland. The layers are aware of the situation so the draw is priced at odds on, prices you would never see in other games.


I have also updated the November final tally and you can see it was a disappointing month, but the season is still heavily in the black and the early results from December have been positive. This is going to be a busy month with the Christmas period meaning a lot of games going through a short period of time so let''s hope the first days of the month was a sign of things to come going forward.


Paris Saint-Germain v Porto Pick: This is one of the few games that has a real meaning behind it as top spot in the Group is up for grabs- Porto will win the Group as long as they avoid defeat in the French capital, while Paris Saint-Germain can steal top spot with a win.

Carlo Ancelotti is under a lot of pressure at Paris after a huge spending spree in the Summer has failed to ignite the results that would have been expecting in the French domestic League and that does mean he is looking for positives wherever he can find them. His side has won 7 of their last 9, but the 2 exceptions have been defeats and both of those have come in the last 4 games.

I think PSG have been a little vulnerable in recent games and that should lead to one of the more exciting games in the evening and I like the chances of goals in the game as both sides could create chances in this one.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: While all the talk in Madrid is about whether or not Jose Mourinho will be in charge of the club next Summer, Real Madrid are still concentrating on winning this Group game that doesn't have a great deal of meaning to them.

The side are locked into second spot in the Group no matter what happens in the final games, but that doesn't mean there will be sweeping changes to the first team and the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Kerim Benzema will be playing in this one.

Ajax were outclassed when they first met Real Madrid in Amsterdam and they have been comfortably beaten on their two previous visits to this ground in the last two seasons. Borussia Dortmund were also far too good for Ajax in their last game and I just think it will be a tough day in the office for the Dutch side.


Borussia Dortmund v Manchester City Pick: This might be a dead rubber for Borussia Dortmund, but both teams will still have pride to play for in what could be an entertaining game on Tuesday evening.

Both sides are certainly better going forward than they are defensively, and I think there is a reasonable chance that we will see space in this game and that could lead to a high-scoring contest.

Manchester City have been saying all the right things in the build up to this game and Roberto Mancini must be feeling some pressure from his superiors with another disappointing Champions League campaign under his belt.

Therefore, even getting the consolation prize of a Europa League spot is something that City will want to pick up and I wouldn't at all be surprised if there are at least 4 goals in the game at a decent price.


Montpellier v Schalke Pick: Montpellier may be knocked out of the Champions League and Europa League, but they will be playing for pride in this one as no one wants to end the Group Stage without a win.

They have lost both home games by the same 1-2 scoreline and Schalke certainly have the motivation and the form to think they may be the third side to manage that. However, the German side have lost 3 straight away games domestically which reduces my enthusiasm somewhat in backing them to win this one.

Schalke away games remain high-scoring affairs as they have conceded at least 2 goals in their last 3 games while they had scored at least 2 goals in 9 straight away games before only managing 1 in their last 2 games.

I think this could be the third high-scoring game of the evening and at odds against it looks worth chancing.


Chelsea v Nordsjaelland Pick: Rafa Benitez was a terrible choice as manager for Chelsea as far as I am concerned and the fans are still upset with the side performing really badly in their first 3 games under the Spaniard's watch.

However, this looks a perfect tonic to their woes which has seen them record just 1 win in their last 11 games in all competitions, despite the fact that Chelsea are very much looking like their defence of the Champions League ends at the Group Stage this season.

Nordsjaelland have conceded at least 4 goals in 3 of their 5 Group Stage games in the Champions League and they do look vulnerable at the back. I expect a strong side to take to the field to build confidence for Chelsea in this game and I think they will likely pull away to a convincing victory in this one.


Manchester United v Cluj: This is a tough game to read as Manchester United will be making wholesale changes to their team ahead of the Manchester derby this weekend. Cluj are a decent counter-attacking side that will likely cause problems for United during this game, but I expect Old Trafford will be a little daunting for them and it will be tough for them to pick up a result that could potentially see them through to the last 16.

I don't have a great angle and insight into the game with changes likely to make this is a 'bitty' game, but Sir Alex Ferguson has suggested Wayne Rooney will start and that is where I will focus my attention.

Rooney got a brace at Reading and he is the kind of player that goes on runs of really good form in front of goal and I think those goals at the Majedski Stadium will set him up over this Christmas period. He will be the designated penalty taker on Wednesday night and will also probably behind any free kicks within shooting range so he looks a lively contender to open the scoring in this one as long as United don't decide to fall behind yet again this season.


Bayern Munich v BATE Borisov Pick: Bayern Munich were embarrassed when they fell to a 3-1 loss in Belarus earlier on in the Group, but they have recovered to the point that a win in this one will ensure they top the Group.
So with revenge for the earlier loss and real motivation behind them to top the Group, I think BATE Borisov could be in a real spot of bother here. Remember when Basel stunned Bayern Munich with a 1-0 win in the last 16 last season? The Bavarians decided to teach them a lesson with a 7-0 home win and they also smashed 6 past Lille earlier this campaign.

I don't think Bayern will score 6 or 7 tonight, but can see them reaching 4 or 5 as BATE have looked a little suspect defensively in their last 3 Champions League games and have already secured a Europa League berth. The home side may be resting some players after a gruelling game with Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but I think the prize on offer to win the Group keeps them focused and revenge will be theirs.


Tottenham Hotspur v Panathinaikos Pick: This is the first pick of two from the Europa League and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be a little too strong for their Greek opponents and should be able to win the game with a little room to spare.

It is true that Spurs only need a point to progress, but it can be dangerous to play for that scoreline as a Panthinaikos win would see them through at Tottenham's expense.

However, Panathinaikos are not exactly the best travellers when it comes to European games and they have already lost 3-0 at both Maribor and Lazio in this Group already to make it three consecutive losses by that scoreline in this competition. They were also beaten 2-0 at Malaga in the Champions League Play Offs.

Gareth Bale is out, but Emmanuel Adebayor is back and this Spurs team still has goals in it. I also expect they could cause plenty of problems on the counter attack with the away side needing a win to go through and they could use the pace of Aaron Lennon and Jermaine Defoe to get away another killer goal.

All in all, the 2.35 that Spurs win by at least 2 goals looks a little too generous to me.


Udinese v Liverpool Pick: After playing a lot of fringe players for much of this competition, Brendan Rodgers has taken a strong side to Italy in a bid to help Liverpool achieve the result they need to progress through to the last 32 of the Europa League. It is simple for Liverpool in this one- win and they are through, draw and they need Young Boys to fail to beat an already qualified Anzhi Machachkala, lose and they are out.

Udinese have no permutations to worry about as they have already been knocked out of the tournament, but they are looking to build some momentum after a poor run of form saw them win their first game in 8 at the weekend.

They have insisted they will get on the front foot in this one and this does have the makings of a high-scoring game.

Udinese's last 4 home games in all competitions has seen at least 3 goals scored and 3 of their 5 games in this Group have also seen that number covered. Liverpool themselves have also played in high-scoring games in 3 of their 5 in the Group while 5 of their last 8 away in all competitions has seen goals.

With Liverpool needing to obtain the win to be sure of their place in the last 32, I expect them on the attack to ensure that is done and this could be a game with space to be exploited... However, we have to hope Anzhi don't take a big lead over Young Boys in the other game as that could be infiltrated to the players on the pitch and Liverpool may be more content to settle with whatever positive result they have at that time.


MY PICKS: PSG-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Borussia Dortmund-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Montpellier-Schalke Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wayne Rooney First Goalscorer @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Bayern Munich - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.35 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Udinese-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)



December Update: 4-3, + 2.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 26.1 % Yield)

November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)