NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)

We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers is played on Sunday night.

That does mean that the Western Conference Finals will begin first rather than the Eastern Conference Finals and Game 1-4 are played on alternate days.

All NBA fans have to be excited about the Western Conference Finals- the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs could build up a real rivalry over the next several years with two young rosters filled with some incredible talent.

The winner of the Western Conference Finals will be expected to be set as favourites in the NBA Finals, but the New York Knicks have produced some of the best basketball of this year's Playoffs and will certainly have something to say about that.

Twenty-seven years have passed since the Knicks last reached the NBA Finals and fifty-three since New York last won a NBA Championship, but they have won seven Playoff games in a row and mostly in supremely confident fashion.

Nothing can be taken for granted against whoever they face in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Knicks are going to be favourites and it is up to this team to manage the huge expectations that have been placed on their shoulders.

NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4

Monday 18th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: This is the Western Conference Finals that fans would have wanted to see and the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be favourites to move through to another NBA Finals.

They have breezed through the Playoffs without dropping a game, but this is going to be a significantly tougher Series.

However, that ability to make comfortable progress has meant the Oklahoma City Thunder are well rested and they are also expecting to have Jalen Williams available in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The depth of the Thunder has been a huge advantage over the rivals faced in the Playoffs so far, while Oklahoma City have been allowed to play with real physicality and that has seen them dominate the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers.

Both of those teams were shorthanded, but that is not going to be the case in the Western Conference Finals and the San Antonio Spurs have to believe their own depth helps them match up well with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Spurs may not have the MVP of the League on the roster, but they will believe Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the court all the same. Using the depth to keep themselves competitive when Wemby has to be given a rest is the key for the Spurs, and it remains an important factor that San Antonio won four of the five regular season meetings between the teams.

There has been nothing wrong with the Oklahoma City Defensive unit, but recent games have been tougher for them even if they should be stronger at home. They are going to need to play well on this side of the court against a San Antonio team that have been very strong Defensively and used that to wear down the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Second Round Series.

Some will like the fact that the Spurs have not lost a lot of rhythm by playing in the Second Round until Friday, but the Oklahoma City Thunder showed that rest will not bother them. You would expect the Thunder to find their rhythm at home pretty quickly, but the defending Champions will also want to make an early statement against a team that gave them so much trouble in the regular season.

This is the shortest spread that the Thunder will have faced in the post-season at home in 2026, but that is the kind of respect that the San Antonio Spurs.

In saying that, the Spurs may still feel they are being overlooked by having this many points given to them and the road team can be backed in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, which has all of the signs of being one that could potentially go all the way.

Tuesday 19th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Twenty-seven years have passed since the New York Knicks last reached the NBA Finals and multiple generations have failed to see the team win the NBA Championship.

After what had been something of an inconsistent regular season and falling 2-1 behind in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, the Knicks have found some of their best basketball. The momentum has grown as they have not only won seven straight Playoff games, but the Knicks completely overwhelmed the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers and fans will believe they won't have many better opportunities to reach the NBA Finals.

Last year the season ended in the Eastern Conference Finals after a Game 6 loss to the Indiana Pacers, but injuries had held the team back and the Knicks look to be heading into the 2026 Conference Finals in much better shape.

OG Anunoby missed some time in the Second Round sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers, but he has been back in full practice with the team giving him a big chance of recovering with the rest days they have had between Series. Karl-Anthony Towns is playing about as well as he ever has in the NBA, while Jalen Brunson is expected to enjoy this match up.

The Knicks have been underrated Defensively, while the three point shooting has been at historically strong levels in the previous two Rounds as the team have rallied together and found a really good rhythm.

One of the only concerns for the fans is that the long layoff between the end of the Second Round Series and the start of the Eastern Conference Finals could work against New York.

However, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come into the Conference Finals having had to dig in to beat the Detroit Pistons in Game 7 and that is the second Series in the post-season that has gone all the way. Donovan Mitchell stepped up to lead the Cavaliers into the Eastern Conference Finals, which is also the first time Mitchell will have been that far in the Playoffs, but the key starters who have all been so important for Cleveland have already had a lot of minutes in the post-season.

This is a Series that is also going to feel very different for the Cavaliers- this time they are facing an opponent that will believe they can match the Offensive firepower on the other side of the court. After seeing the barrage of three pointers that the Knicks have been connecting on, the pressure will be on Cleveland to find the energy to get out to those shooters, while a returning Anunoby gives the Knicks the kind of Defensive length and intensity to put plenty of pressure on the Cavaliers.

Big favourites and Game 1 home teams have struggled in recent Conference Finals Series, but in recent situations where the Number 3 Seed has been favoured by at least 3.5 points, those teams have tended to cover.

A number of adjustments are going to have to be made by the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals compared with what has come before, but this feels a tough spot for them with a day of rest between Game 7 of the Second Round Series and this opening contest.

It is a big spread, but the New York Knicks have a lot of momentum that could carry into the Eastern Conference Finals and they may find some three point shooting rhythm to cover at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

Wednesday 20th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: These two Western Conference rivals are expecting to battle one another for the next several years at the very top of the NBA and Game 1 suggests the Western Conference Finals could be an epic affair.

Double Overtime was needed before the San Antonio Spurs eventually prevailed thanks to a monster game from Victor Wembanyama.

For all intents and purposes, the Spurs fans will know the team have already achieved all they would have wanted from the first two games of the Series, but the players will feel there is an opportunity to really take control of this Conference Finals. Another win on the road would put the Spurs in a very strong position before returning home and they have shown they have what it takes to beat the defending Champions time and time again throughout this season.

Game 1 was won without De'Aaron Fox, who has to be considered Questionable for Game 2, but Wemby put the team on his back and had a big moment to level things up in the first Overtime played. His 41 Points alone would impress, but adding 24 Rebounds along with 3 Blocks and 3 Assists underlines the impact Victor Wembanyama had on the game as he became the youngest player to ever have at least 40 Points and 20 Rebounds in a Playoff game.

Asking for more of the same may be too much, but the San Antonio Spurs will feel Victor Wembanyama is the most impactful player on the court even if he did not win the MVP.

The player who did, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, produced an inefficient 24 Points in Game 1 as the Spurs crowded him, but that did mean the Oklahoma City Thunder had multiple open looks that were missed. Some will believe that is down to the fact they have won all eight Playoff Games and so had a lot of rest between the end of the Second Round Series and Game 1 of the Conference Finals, but you have to think the Thunder are confident that the shooters will be better when those looks come up again.

Oklahoma City's regular season record against the Spurs will put them under some pressure, but they are the defending Champions and a response is expected.

Once again they are being asked to cover a big spread, which has not been a good position for favourites in the Conference Finals, but teams playing after a loss are 34-19-1 against the spread at this stage of the post-season.

Big favourites have struggled in the Conference Finals, but Number 1 Seeds have a 21-14 record against the spread when favoured by at least 6.5 points and this Thunder team have the experience and the quality to find a way to bounce back.

The Spurs covered as a big underdog, but that has not always been a good spot for the Number 2 Seed in the Conference Finals and those teams being given at least 5 points are now 7-16 against the spread.

Opposing the Spurs is not easy considering how they have matched up with the Thunder all season, but Oklahoma City may be facing a team that could soon turn their attention to 'holding serve' at home having already stolen home court advantage away. If that is going to happen, Game 2 looks the spot and the Thunder should be a little more efficient with the looks they missed out on last time out, which should see them edge past this spread line set.

Thursday 21st May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: Most of the attention is going to be focusing on the New York Knicks after putting together a historic comeback that will have fans believing destiny is with them as they bid to return to the NBA Finals for the first time in twenty-seven years.

They were 22 points behind with less than eight minutes remaining and no one would have given the Knicks a shot at recovering.

Instead the team rallied to force Overtime and overwhelmed the Cleveland Cavaliers to produce the biggest comeback in the history of the New York Knicks as far as the post-season goes, while also being the second biggest deficit clawed back in the Fourth Quarter of any Playoff game in the last thirty years.

The number crunchers gave the Knicks a 0.1% chance of winning with a little over half of the Fourth Quarter remaining, but somehow it is New York who have a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Jalen Brunson put the team on his back and could not miss, but there were also key contributions from three point shooters who had been ice cold for the first three Quarters. Some of that is clearly down to the big gap between games, but the Knicks found their rhythm just in time and all of the momentum is with a team that have won eight straight Playoff games.

Credit has to be given to New York for the fight shown, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are rightly going to be facing criticism.

James Harden was exposed time and time again on the Defensive side of the court as the Knicks turned up the heat, which also impacted his level on the Offensive side as he was worn down. Donovan Mitchell had been playing really well, but drifted out of the game as the Cavaliers looked for someone to take control, although he has played down an injury concerns.

And Head Coach Kenny Atkinson has had to face the critics having failed to use his Timeouts in a bid to at least curtail the Knicks run in the Fourth Quarter when almost everyone else would have used them, even just to slow the clear momentum shift.

Adjustments will have to be made by the Cavaliers, but they have responded to adversity throughout these Playoffs and that makes them dangerous- yes, they did lose two in a row at the Detroit Pistons to open the Second Round Series, but the Cavaliers won road games in Game 5 and Game 7 to show they can come through difficult, hostile environments.

However, there has to be a concern about the way things went at the end of Game 1 and the relative lack of recovery time before the teams face off again in Game 2 at The Garden.

Open shooters will have to be more clinical with those opportunities, while Mitchell cannot allow himself to become a non-factor as he did in the second half of the Fourth Quarter and in Overtime in Game 1.

The challenge for the Cavaliers is knowing that this New York Knicks team had been completely out of sync for so long in Game 1 that they should have won on the road, while now they are dealing with a team that did find rhythm with their shots. The three point shooting has been eye-catching in this Playoff run, but the Knicks have so much room for improvement from the Tuesday efforts that they feel very, very dangerous if the Cavaliers do not come out with a point to prove.

Big favourites have found it tough in the Conference Finals, while teams playing after a loss have bounced back effectively, which are both trends favouring the road team.

Game 2s have tended to be very good for home teams after a win with those putting together an 8-5 run against the spread and the New York Knicks have to believe the manner of the opening win is going to have a hangover effect on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It is imperative the Knicks come out fast and use the emotion of the crowd to get on top of the Cavaliers as early as they can and, if they can do that, they should have a better shooting day with some of the looks they saw in Game 1 to believe they can win and take a 2-0 lead in the Series with a cover of the spread line set.

Friday 22nd May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: They did what they needed to during a two game road business trip to Oklahoma City, but it has come at a cost for the San Antonio Spurs.

De'Aaron Fox was already missing and another primary ball-handler in Dylan Harper suffered an injury in the Third Quarter of Game 2, which ultimately tipped things in favour of the defending Champions. Turnovers killed the San Antonio Spurs with Stephon Castle being most guilty and they are going to be desperate to have at least one of Fox or Harper available for Game 3 as the Western Conference Finals shifts to San Antonio for the next two in the Series.

Every team needs players who can bring the ball up the court and create plays and San Antonio are no different- after the Double Overtime win in Game 1 behind a monster game from Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs best player was not as influential a factor in Game 2 and some of that is down to the inability of those outside of De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper being able to set the tempo with turning the ball over.

Turnovers have long been situations from which the Oklahoma City Thunder shine and most would have expected a big response from this group after losing Game 1.

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander had a really efficient day from the field, even if his flopping on almost every shot taken is beginning to be noted more and more, while the intensity of the team meant they were not outgunned on the boards for a second time in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder were out-Rebounded in Game 2, but by a 4 board margin rather than the 21 more recoveries earned by the Spurs in Game 1.

It wasn't a perfect night for the Thunder, who may have lost Jalen Williams to another injury, while there have been plenty flagging up some of the physical, rough-housing the officials either missed or ignored against Victor Wembanyama.

On San Antonio's home court, those calls may end up trending in favour of the Spurs and it does make Game 3 that much more interesting for viewers.

In recent years, the Conference Finals have seen the zig-zag theory working really well with teams coming off losses producing strong numbers in the next game. The San Antonio Spurs will be hoping another day of recovery will help them here and you would expect De'Aaron Fox to suit up having been a game-time decision on Wednesday.

That will help, as will a few more positive calls from the officials, but this Oklahoma City Thunder deep have showcased the kind of depth they have.

Number 2 Seeds have been solid backs when favoured in Conference Finals games, while it should also be noted that Number 1 Seeds have not performed well as small favourites or underdogs, which is what the Oklahoma City Thunder have been set as in this important Game 3 battle.

Instead of picking a side, it may pay for this one to end up surpassing a total that has moved up a couple of points compared with Game 2.

That opening Double Overtime Game 1 has sapped some early energy and we saw signs of that in Game 2, while the officials may be more on top of some of the physicality we have seen where obvious fouls were not being called. Those have been highlighted nationally and it could be a Game 3 where whistles are more frequent, which in turn leads to drawn out Quarters as teams head to the Foul Line.

Three point shooting was more efficient in Game 2 as the Defensive players perhaps struggled to get out to those spot up shooters with tired legs recovering from the opening outing in the Western Conference Finals.

If that continues, this line may still be a touch low and it should be stated that Conference Finals games where the total has been set between 209 and 216 points have now finished with an 'over' in twenty-five of the last thirty-six occasions that has happened, including in Game 2 of this Series.

Turnovers lead to quick points too and the Spurs could be guilty of that again, but the home team are also showing they can break down this Oklahoma City Defensive scheme and this total may end up being surpassed in a Game 3 that really feels like it is finely balanced.

Saturday 23rd May

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3 Pick: There are recent Conference Finals trends that will give the Cleveland Cavaliers some confidence as they return home 0-2 behind in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals.

Teams that were blown out in Game 2 have been on a strong 9-2 run against the spread in Game 3, while this has usually been the time of the NBA Playoffs when those playing after a loss have recovered to cover in the next game.

Of course that did not happen for the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2, but you cannot ignore the fact that there was always going to be some kind of hangover having been on the wrong end of a historically big post-season collapse in Game 1.

The rally to win that game has given the New York Knicks confidence and they looked to be in much better rhythm all around in Game 2 as they took command of the Series and moved to two wins from returning to the NBA Finals in almost thirty years. There looked to be more energy in the New York legs in Game 2 as they produced a ninth straight Playoff win, but most impressive is that they won that one very differently compared with Game 1 and that makes the Knicks tough to stop.

Jalen Brunson took the team on his back in Game 1 and overpowered the Cavaliers down the stretch, but the best player on the Knicks team made the adjustments needed in Game 2. It was clear the Cavaliers were not going to allow Brunson to beat them again, but that did not stop the superstar having a huge impact on Game 2 with 19 Points and 14 Assists.

It was Josh Hart that the Cavaliers were allowing to have the open looks, but he punished them with a career best 26 Playoff Points and there was a strong balance from the five starters that ultimately proved too much for this Cleveland team.

The Cavaliers have been better at home, which will give them some belief they can return to Gotham with the Conference Finals tied up, but Donovan Mitchell looked to be playing through some kind of injury in Game 2 and his impact was not nearly as strong as it had been through three Quarters of Game 1.

Cleveland were better on the glass in Game 2 and they limited the Turnovers, but there was some tiredness in the legs of a team that have needed seven games to win the opening two Series and who had just blown the massive lead in Game 1 to fall behind. That tiredness was exposed in the second half and the Cavaliers did not shoot as well as they did in Game 1, while the New York Knicks were better from the Field as the rhythm returned to the shooters.

In the Second Round, Cleveland returned home having lost both games to the Detroit Pistons and they won the next three- the problem is that they are not facing an opponent who have been struggling Offensively, but instead they are up against a New York team that have impressed at both ends of the court.

You almost HAVE to expect better energy and intensity from the home team, but having a single day between games is tough in terms of the recovery time.

If Donovan Mitchell is not able to attack as normal, these Conference Finals may quickly get away from the Cavaliers and the last seven teams with a 2-0 lead at this stage of the post-season have produced a 4-3 record against the spread in Game 3.

All of the early money looks to be going on the home favourite, but the New York Knicks have the momentum and all of the talent needed to weather the expected early storm. Once again they could show off the power in the Fourth Quarter and the Knicks can be backed with a start with every reason to believe they can earn the 'upset' to move one game away from the Finals.

Sunday 24th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: Earning the Game 1 win in Double Overtime may have given the San Antonio Spurs the lead in this Western Conference Finals, but days later you do have to wonder if that victory came at a cost.

The defending Champions were never going to go away quietly, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have taken back to back games to regain home court advantage in the Western Conference Finals.

The Thunder will have taken plenty of confidence from recovering from 0-15 behind in the First Quarter of Game 3 and showing the greater depth on the roster. Four players came off the bench to score at least 11 points and the ability to use the rotation has helped the big names get plenty of rest since that Double Overtime defeat to open this Series.

It has been a different approach for the San Antonio Spurs who have struggled when Victor Wembanyama has had to go to the bench, while they will have noted that all of the starters reached double digits in terms of points, but there was simply not the same impact from the bench.

The star player has tried to take the blame for not putting his teammates into better positions to succeed, but Wemby does need support and the San Antonio Spurs will be hoping De'Aaron Fox has not re-aggravated an injury that saw miss the first two games. He did come back into Game 3 after hurting his ankle again, but Fox did not look quite right and the Spurs are going to be hoping one day of recovery is enough to get him ready to compete.

Both De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper will try and do what they can for the team, but the Spurs need to find a way to stay competitive when Victor Wembanyama is on the bench.

Adjustments will also have to be made Defensively having been punished by the role players, but the momentum is with the Oklahoma City Thunder who have found a good formula for success.

In all likelihood, the Spurs are going to shorten the rotation for this Game 4, which feels like 'must win'.

That may help, but you have to still favour the Oklahoma City Thunder to find a way with a host of options to use and potentially having Jalen Williams available after he sat out Game 3, but travelled with the team.

Both teams have very strong Defensive schemes, but the desire to attack the rim and some of the holding and grabbing has led to plenty of fouls and that means getting to the Foul Line very quickly. There were 66 Free Throws combined in Game 3 after just 41 in Game 2, but the officials may have noticed the grabbing issues that the media had focused on after the second game of the Series and they are looking to clamp down on those.

The total has moved upwards from Game 3 after the last two high-scoring contests, but this may be another with the Spurs likely emptying some of the tank to try and level the Series and both teams capable of racking up the Free Throw attempts.

Monday 25th May

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Pick: When they fell 2-1 behind to the Atlanta Hawks in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, the press and fans were sharpening their knives and ready to put the dagger into the New York Knicks.

They had lost back to back games by single point margins, but that has focused the team and the Knicks have not looked back.

Twenty-seven years have passed since the New York Knicks were competing in the NBA Finals and fifty-three since this team last lifted a NBA Championship, but the team have put together a ten game winning run through the post-season and now stand a single win away from returning to the Finals.

Most Knicks fans will still be keeping the emotions in check and that is largely down to the disappointments suffered over the years, but the 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals is one that teams have simply not been able to overcome. None have been beaten in a best of seven Series when moving into a 3-0 lead and the New York Knicks have dominated the last couple of games after breaking the hearts of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1.

Blowing that 22 point lead in the Fourth Quarter has haunted the Cavaliers and they have been outplayed in the last couple of games.

Head Coach Kenny Atkinson has made an effort to remind the media that his team have perhaps deserved more, but Cleveland have struggled at both ends of the court and Donovan Mitchell clearly looks to be playing through an injury. That has hindered a team that have been hugely reliant on the four key starters and it does feel like the long Playoff run has caught up with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Unlike the Knicks, the Cleveland Cavaliers have played every game possible in the Playoffs, while the limited recovery time between games has just worn them down.

You have to really worry about how much is left in the tank when you consider some of the Defensive work shown on the court in the Fourth Quarter of the defeat in Game 3.

Playing at home to avoid the sweep should offer motivation, but the Knicks have shown they have a greater depth and a team that is playing with freshness and confidence that cannot be understated. It has put them in a position to break the long wait to return to the NBA Finals and the New York Knicks may be able to weather the early push expected from the Cleveland Cavaliers before pulling away for another victory.

Teams that have faced a four game sweep in the Conference Finals are only 3-6 straight up in the last nine times this situation has come up, although 4-4-1 against the spread. However, this line is short enough to believe the New York Knicks do cover if they win and they can do that behind a balanced Offensive unit and a set of players looking to play with intensity on the Defensive side of the court.

Cleveland have to show more fight than they did in Game 3, but that may still not be enough to extend this Series back to The Garden.

MY PICKS: 18/05 San Antonio Spurs + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

20/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

21/05 New York Knicks - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

23/05 New York Knicks + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

24/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

25/05 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals: 7-1, + 5.42 Units (8 Units Staked, + 67.75% Yield)

Second Round: 5-8, - 3.45 Units (13 Units Staked, - 26.54% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 12th May-Monday 18th May)

The First Round produced a number of tough, gruelling Series, but it has been a different story in the Second Round.

My New York Knicks have continued to impress and have swept past the Philadelphia 76ers to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again and the experiences from last year are expected to help this team.

For most of the fans, the NBA Finals has to be the minimum aim and winning the NBA Cup earlier in the season raised expectations- the performances in the Playoffs have been even more impressive since falling 2-1 behind in the First Round and seven straight wins means the Knicks will be confident whether they play the Detroit Pistons or the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is a Series that is definitely reaching Game 5.

The Western Conference Series between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves is the only one that is definitely going to need a Game 6, at least at the time of writing.

A long Series likely benefits the Oklahoma City Thunder, even if they are forced into a Game 5 in their own Series against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they should be awaiting the winner of the other Second Round Series in the West and the defending Champions still look the team to beat.

The selections from Game 5-7 of the Second Round Series still being played will be placed in this thread and then a new thread will begin this weekend when the Conference Finals are hoping to begin.

Tuesday 12th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Playoff Games are always going to have factors that can determine the outcome of a contest, which are almost impossible to predict for the watching fans.

One is clearly injury related- losing a big name in the middle of a Playoff Game and within a Series can tip things one way or the other very quickly.

The other is teams beginning to get fed up of one another and a growing dislike leading to ejections.

Without a doubt, Game 4 of this Western Conference Series will have been massively impacted by the Victor Wembanyama ejection in the Second Quarter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves took advantage by attacking the rim and using their bigger players inside the paint as they rallied for a win over the San Antonio Spurs. Players in Timberwolves uniform admitted that the absence of Wemby on the court helped them game plan much more effectively and the momentum is back with Minnesota, even if they have to replicate Game 1 and win one on the road.

The expectation is that the League is not going to suspend Victor Wembanyama for another game, but will see the relatively early ejection in Game 4 as being enough punishment.  Even without him on the court, the San Antonio Spurs showed some of the depth on the roster with other stepping up and that will mean the Number 2 Seed should still be operating with a lot of confidence.

Head Coach Mitch Johnson was highly critical of the physicality the officials are allowing the Timberwolves to play with and he refused to blame Victor Wembanyama, although privately you have to expect him to try and make sure his superstar remains as composed as possible. The Timberwolves are going to feel they have found a chink in the armour of the Spurs' best player and you have to expect them to throw bodies at him again and hope to reel in another mistake.

Minnesota also have to be really happy with the level that Anthony Edwards is producing and it is important for the road team to find a way to get the supporting cast going on the road.

The last time they played in this building, Head Coach Chris Finch stated his team had been 'punked' and it is crucial for the Timberwolves to come out with real intensity.

You have to expect a fired up crowd, but more worrying is going to be the focus and threat of Victor Wembanyama who is going to want to dominate and make up for the error of judgment he had in Game 4.

Standing in the way of that is never an easy decision with superstars routinely making it their whole focus to bounce back when they feel they have not had their best outing or let their teammates down.

It is easy to see a situation in which the Spurs come out hard and fast and blow Minnesota away, but three of the four games have been highly competitive and the Timberwolves have won here already in this Series. They will need to make some adjustments to deal with the Wemby presence, but Minnesota have to be excited by what Anthony Edwards is bringing onto the court and that could see them keep this one competitive.

Big home favourites have not been the best to back in recent NBA Playoff Second Round Series, while those favoured by at least 5.5 points in Game 5 are on a run of 12-19 against the spread.

Any home team favoured by at least 8.5 points are now on a run of 11-23 against the spread in the Second Round (3-2 against the spread this season) and, while there are a couple of solid trends that land in favour of this angry San Antonio team, the Timberwolves can make use of the amount of points being handed to them in this Game 5.

Wednesday 13th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 5 Pick: Momentum is back with the Cleveland Cavaliers after holding serve twice at home, but they still have to do something they have not managed to do in the post-season to this point... Win on the road.

Six wins have been produced at home having taking Game 3 and Game 4 against the Detroit Pistons, but the two earlier road losses means the Cavaliers have lost all five road Playoff games played.

Simply put, the Cavaliers will not be able to progress without beating the Pistons at least once on the road and they have an attempt at doing that in Game 5.

Donovan Mitchell came alive in the second half of Game 4 to swing things back in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he will need some of the teammates to step up in these road atmospheres. It has long been a feature of the Playoffs that players have had vastly different experiences when playing at home and on the road, but that is especially the case for the role players who try and aid the superstar.

The Cavaliers have struggled in the main and the losses have piled up, but they will feel they have found a formula for success in the last two games at home and building on that is the key.

For the top Seed, two road losses in relatively close contests will hurt, but the Detroit Pistons have to believe there are 'easier' adjustments to be made when returning home.

The bench stepped up in Game 4, but the starters all had their problems and that should be easier to clean up in front of the home fans.

Cade Cunningham does need to see one or two of the other starters to pick up their level, but he will be encouraged by the support of the bench and the Detroit Pistons should feel more comfortable at home.

Perhaps more importantly, the officials are less likely to be overwhelmed by the atmosphere as the Pistons have felt they have been in the two road defeats.

Head Coach JB Bickerstaff made his feelings clear about what he felt was home officiating by mentioning the huge disparity in the Free Throw numbers awarded in Game 4 and it was clear that made a difference in the outcome of a close game. He even mentioned the fact that he feels the whistles against his team have become more frequent because of comments made by Cleveland Head Coach Kenny Atkinson, but the home crowd are going to be on top of the officials in this one and that could even things up.

If they are even on the Free Throw attempts, you have to give the Detroit Pistons a slight edge.

Defensively they have shown they can slow down this Cleveland team for long enough to hold them off and the Pistons are in a decent enough spot as a relatively small home favourite in Game 5.

It should also be noted that teams who lost Game 4 by at least seven points have bounced back in recent years to produce a 19-7 record against the spread in Game 5 and the Detroit Pistons can remind all about their prospects by winning and covering to take a lead in this Second Round Series with two games left to play.

Friday 15th May

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 6 Pick: Much like the Orlando Magic in the First Round Series, there is now going to be a question about the top Seed Detroit Pistons and how much they have left to battle back after blowing a big lead in Game 5 of this Second Round Series.

With time running down at the end of the Fourth Quarter and with a 9 point lead, the Detroit Pistons had to have felt that they were about to take a 3-2 lead in this back and forth Series.

Instead they went ice cold from the field and allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to not only rally to force Overtime, but then continue the momentum early into that period to take a lead that they were able to manage to the end of the game.

And just like that, the Cavaliers have won on the road for the first time in the Playoffs and return home on Friday with an opportunity to book their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the momentum is with the Cleveland Cavaliers who had 15 fewer shots than the Detroit Pistons in Game 5, but once again dominated the number of Free Throws being taken. The Cavaliers have rallied from a 2-0 deficit to take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and all of the adjustments have to be made by the Detroit Pistons.

The four key starters of the Cavaliers all had big outings in Game 5, but the team also had a big impact off the bench from Max Strus- the real concern for the Pistons was going to be trying to match the Offensive power Cleveland has on the court and that has proven to be the difference.

Cade Cunningham did all he could to help his team, but the other four starters had just 47 points combined to add to the 39 he was scoring himself. There was a hope that Jalen Duren would eventually produce his regular season form in the post-season, but he has continued to struggle and there is now a real question for the Pistons to answer about his suitability to start Game 6.

Something has to change for the Pistons if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home this weekend, but it is a big ask.

Underdogs have played well in Game 6 in recent Second Round Series, but three losses in a row have shifted all momentum to the lower Seed who will feel this is their one big opportunity to progress to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Top Seeds set as underdogs have a losing record in recent Second Round Series in that spot and the Pistons are 0-2 against the spread in that situation within this one.

The Pistons have shown all season how good they can be, but this may go down as a learning experience in the post-season and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the firepower to close things out in front of the home fans.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Pick: Everyone was expecting a big reaction from Victor Wembanyama after his Game 4 ejection, but seemingly the memo was not read by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Another slow start cost them Game 5 and Wembanyama had a dominant impact to help the San Antonio Spurs take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and look to close things out as soon as Friday.

Winning on the road is never easy, but the Spurs have done that once already in this Series and were beaten in the other outing in Minnesota when Wemby was ejected before the end of the first half.

Close out spots have tended to be more comfortable for road teams and the Spurs look to have the momentum to make sure they can do that here and avoid the pressure on a Game 7. Instead they will want to make sure they are as energetic as they can be for what is looking like becoming a top Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Timberwolves are going to have something to say about that and the extra day between games for the first time in this Series can only help them as they look to make some adjustments. Having that time for Anthony Edwards to rest his knee can only be a positive, but the Timberwolves need to find some solid, consistent support for the best player on the roster, much as San Antonio did in Game 5 to back up Victor Wembanyama.

Role players do tend to find things a bit more comfortable at home, while the Minnesota fanbase is going to be right behind a team that have earned Playoff upsets before and have the experience of overcoming the odds.

It certainly makes the Timberwolves dangerous, but the San Antonio Spurs have an experience of the atmosphere that is going to be facing them and they will feel they have been the better team in the Series since dropping Game 1. Having players like De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle producing some quality basketball without Wemby in Game 4 will only have given the Spurs that much more confidence and they have it within themselves to win for a second time on the road.

As mentioned, Game 6 of the Second Round Series have leaned in favour of the underdog, but like the Eastern Conference Series that has played out this far, the feeling is that the favourite in Game 6 may have broken the back of the Series with a Game 5 win.

Big road favourites have not always been the best to back in the Second Round Series, but those teams are 2-2 against the spread in 2026 and one of those defeats was Game 4 of this Series, which shifted significantly after the Wemby ejection.

Assuming he keeps his cool, Victor Wembanyama can erase memories of that Game 4 by leading the Spurs to a big win and a place in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2017 when they were swept by the Golden State Warriors.

Sunday 17th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: This has been an incredibly difficult Second Round Series to call and even when you think you have gotten to grips with it, something changes the narrative.

It really felt the big Game 5 comeback and win in Overtime had given the Cleveland Cavaliers all of the momentum in the Series with three straight wins behind them and a home game to earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers had not lost a home game in the post-season, but they were blown away by the top Seeded Detroit Pistons who have won an elimination game for the fourth time already in the 2026 Playoffs.

The Cavaliers also played a Game 7 elimination game in the First Round, but that was at home and this is going to be a tough spot for an experienced team.

Experience can also mean previous poor experience and that is the case for Donovan Mitchell who has been the focus of some of the criticism for the Game 6 defeat on Friday night- he has never been part of a team that has missed the Playoffs, but Mitchell has yet to reach the Conference Finals in either the East or West, while he has been on a team that has lost six straight Game 6s after the defeat at home.

James Harden was brought into Cleveland for situations like this, but Donovan Mitchell has long been the key for the Cavaliers and he has to have a big outing if the Number 4 Seed are going to earn the spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the questions will be posed for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons are trying to downplay the pressure that may still be on their shoulders.

The team continue to suggest the 2026 Playoffs are an experience builder, but they will be extremely disappointed if they were to lose the last two home games and fail to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.

Winning on the road in the manner they did on Friday has to give the team belief, while Cade Cunningham will be very happy to see a couple of key starting teammates find some form. The Pistons know what they are going to get from Cunningham, but the likes of Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson have to ride the momentum of Game 6 and bring some of that Offensive firepower into this deciding contest.

Doing that will put the Pistons in a strong position as they continue to show up Defensively and that may be the key in Game 7 on Sunday.

Favourites have struggled in Game 7 of recent Second Round Series, but the team that have won Game 6 have a 10-3 record against the spread in this 'winner takes all' game.

You have to expect a big reaction from the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons should have beaten them here in Game 5 and they may do just enough to do that in what should be a tense, loud atmosphere in the home Arena.

MY PICKS: 12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Detroit Pistons - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

15/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

15/05 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

17/05 Detroit Pistons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Second Round Update: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2022- Game 1-4 (May 17-24)

NBA Conference Finals 2022- Game 1-4

A quick look at the last four teams standing in the NBA would have most unsurprised to read the names of the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors still standing.

The Dallas Mavericks look to be the outlier, but they may have the best player left in the PlayOffs and are coming in off an upset of the Number 1 Seeded Phoenix Suns. The Western Conference certainly looked more open of the two and that has played out with both of the top two Seeds out of the West, but those two Seeds are facing one another in the East.

You could make a case for any of the four teams to win the NBA Championship from here and the first four games of both Eastern and Western Conference Finals will take place over the next eight days. There is little rest time for teams looking to make the adjustments from game to game and you do have to wonder how much of an impact there will be from the Conference Semi Final Series that saw the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics needing to win a Game 7 to earn their spots in the Conference Finals.

Both Series should be fun for different reasons- I think the Western Conference Finals will be a high-scoring one with the veterans of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson trying to keep Luka Doncic out, while the Eastern Conference Finals look like they could be tight, competitive and very physical games between the Celtics and the Miami Heat.

The NBA Picks have not had a very good Conference Semi Final run and I have been a little frustrated by that.

The Conference Finals can be tougher to get a read on with the oddsmakers usually right on top of the lines, but I am expecting better from myself.

As I have done previously, Games 1-4 selections will be contained in this thread, but I will have a new one for Games 5-7.

Tuesday 17th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: When the PlayOff bracket was put together, it felt the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics were rightly down as the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference. Both have backed that up with Series wins over the Atlanta Hawks/Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets/Milwaukee Bucks respectively, but it is clear that the Heat have had the kinder path through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

The two teams have both dropped just three games on their way to the Conference Finals, but the Heat have been off and preparing for a few days after the Celtics were forced to win a Game 7 at home on Sunday.

There are two schools of thought with how this will manifest in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals- the first is that the layoff can affect the rhythm and shooting consistency of the team that have been resting, especially against a focused opponent that hasn't had the same layoff; the second is that Game 7 will have taken something out of the tank of the team having to win a pressurised game and that they could be caught short with this Conference Finals beginning so soon after the Semi Final Series have ended.

In recent years it has been the second of the scenarios which has come true more often than not and teams playing off a Game 7 are winning just 39% of Game 1s in the next Series historically. That has to be a concern for the Boston Celtics who faced one tough opponent and now have to deal with another, one that beat them in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games inside the NBA Bubble a couple of years ago.

Things will feel different this time with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics both going to have to deal with tough road games, but I do think the Heat have the edge in Game 1, especially with the top Coaching they receive. Even though they only found out their opponent on Sunday, Miami would likely have planned for either the Celtics or Bucks and I do think the Heat will be ready to compete.

Overall I do think the Boston Celtics are the better team, but this opening spot is perhaps not ideal.

The Miami Heat are a very good Defensive team and have the depth and the shooting options to match the Boston Celtics in what feels a more superior way than the Milwaukee Bucks could without Khris Middleton in the line up. The Celtics do have an edge with their three point shooting and will take a lot of shots from long range which always gives them a chance, but the Miami Heat should be able to hold serve in Game 1 with their star players having had the rest an the Heat are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite.

Boston have continued to impress in their role as the road underdog, and that deserves plenty of respect, but Game 1 might see them just run out of gas in the Second Half to allow the Number 1 Seed to move into a lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Wednesday 18th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: After a couple of years when injuries have hurt the Golden State Warriors core, the likes of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Steph Curry all entered the post-season feeling pretty good. The Number 3 Seeded Warriors have long been amongst the very favourites to win the NBA Championship with that core together and the likes of Jordan Poole have stepped up their own level alongside the veterans to make Golden State extremely dangerous.

They have to be respected, although at the same time you cannot ignore the fact that the Warriors are not the same team they were when dominating the top of the NBA a few seasons ago. Those veteran players are perhaps not as consistent as they once were, but I am expecting Golden State to reach the NBA Finals as they face a Dallas Mavericks team that is looking to play a brand of basketball that the Warriors will recognise.

Some have compared the Mavericks to the Houston Rockets of the James Harden era and that was a team that did struggle to match up with the Golden State Warriors until they found the experience they needed to challenge Golden State.

I think that could let the Mavericks down in this Western Conference Finals Series even with Luka Doncic playing at an incredible level.

While he may be the best player on the court, the Dallas role players could be under a pressure to keep the scoring up and this time they are facing an opponent that can be clinical from the three point range. That lack of shooting hurt the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Semi Final Series, but the Warriors will feel they have a number of players that can heat up from long range which will give them the edge.

Dallas did win three of the four regular season meetings so won't be afraid of mixing it with the Golden State Warriors, but they are coming in off a Game 7 win over the Phoenix Suns. As I've mentioned in the preview for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, those teams coming off a Game 7 have struggled in the opening game of their next Series, although Dallas do have one more day of rest compared with the Boston Celtics.

The Mavericks have to be respected for how they have performed Defensively in their Series win over the Phoenix Suns, but they did struggle in the first three road games. The role players will have been given a boost by the blowout win in Game 7 on the road, but this Golden State Warriors team may have too much scoring power in this opening game of the Western Conference Finals if there is some lingering fatigue from the emotions of winning that last game in Phoenix.

Both teams have played well off a relatively long rest for the NBA season, while Golden State have been strong at home with a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine here.

Dallas were just 1-3 against the spread as the road underdog in their last Series and I think the manner of their win in Game 7 will see the team come back to the mean mark and that should be enough to give the Golden State Warriors the momentum to move clear in the Fourth Quarter.

Thursday 19th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: Marcus Smart was always trending towards missing out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the late scratch of Al Horford left the Boston Celtics shorthanded. It sounds like Al Horford will be out until this weekend when the Series heads to the TD Garden for the first time, but the return of Smart could be a huge boost for the team.

They actually outscored the Miami Heat in three of the four Quarters played, but the Heat changed the entire momentum of Game 1 in the Third Quarter when they finished with 25 points more than the Number 2 Seed. It was a lead that the Miami Heat were never going to relinquish at that point and they made enough plays in the Fourth Quarter to hold onto an 11 point win.

You could potentially blame the Game 7 that the Boston Celtics had to win on Sunday, but the reality is that they made too many mistakes in the Third Quarter with turnovers sparking fast break points, and ultimately the Boston Celtics were not able to stop the bleeding with a terrible effort from the field the other way.

Jayson Tatum admitted that he needs to be a lot better if the Celtics are going to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and there is room for improvement from the next star of the NBA. He had seven turnovers and a poor day shooting from the three point range, but Jayson Tatum has shown throughout the NBA PlayOffs that he can bounce back from underwhelming games.

You cannot expect Marcus Smart to be at full health, but his return should make things a bit tougher for the Miami Heat who shot 49% from the field in Game 1. Both teams struggled from the three point range, but the Heat had the deeper bench and that played out in Game 1 to give them the lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

I do think the Boston Celtics will be better with Marcus Smart in the line up though and the zigzag theory has been the play in recent Conference Finals games. Those teams coming in off a loss are 14-4-1 against the spread in the last nineteen games in that spot, while Number 1 Seeds have a poor 15-24-1 recent record against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points in the Conference Finals, although Miami have overcome that once already.

Opposing Miami is not easy considering how well they have played at home in recent weeks, while home teams who have won Game 1 of the Conference Finals Series have tended to win Game 2. With this being a short spread, the Heat will feel confident of covering if they are able to win, but I do think the Boston Celtics will make some adjustments that helps them back into the Series.

The Celtics have covered in their last four after a straight up loss and I will back the road team with the points in Game 2 to at least keep this one much closer than Game 1 ended up being.

Friday 20th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: It feels like the Dallas Mavericks have accepted that they are going to live or die by the three point shot and it is asking a lot of the role players to produce consistently on the road. Yes, they won a Game 7 in the Conference Semi Finals at the Phoenix Suns, but the Dallas Mavericks were beaten in the other three road games in that Series and suffered a couple of blowout losses when going cold from the distance.

Luka Doncic is going to be better in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals Series having had an inefficient Game 1, but the superstar for the Mavericks cannot win the Finals on his own. He knows his team-mates are going to have to be a lot better both with their open three pointers as well as their contested shots having hit just 23% from outside the arc in the blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors.

Despite the wide win, Golden State were not much stronger from three point range and actually hit fewer three pointers than the Dallas Mavericks, but they were a touch more efficient. The Warriors were also happier getting to the Free Throw line and challenge the Mavericks inside the paint, while Dallas attempted way over 50% of their shots from outside the arc.

You have to be wary of the Mavericks getting hot at any time, but they are playing a balanced Golden State team who shared out the points in Game 1. While you cannot expect Andrew Wiggins to have the same kind of Offensive output on any given night, you can look for Wiggins to at least pressure Luka Doncic and make him work for his points, while the rest of the team try to tire him out on the Defensive side of the court.

The line has moved somewhat between Game 2 and Game 1, but the Golden State Warriors still look more capable of keeping the momentum going with the approach they have taken. Big favourites have not been on a very good run in recent Conference Finals outings, but the Warriors covered easily in the first game and I think they can do the same here, even if I do believe this game is going to be closer than what we saw a couple of days ago.

Dallas are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games in the PlayOffs having been blown out last time out, and they did find themselves 2-0 down in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns.

The Warriors are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing off a double digit win.

I have to have a lot of respect for the Dallas Mavericks who showed plenty of character and heart in their Conference Semi Final Series success, but the Golden State Warriors look to match up well with them and know how to defend teams that have the style the Mavericks bring to the court. While closer, I still expect the Warriors to cover again.

Saturday 21st May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: The first two games have ended in big wins for the winning team, but the Boston Celtics will return home with a split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and holding all of the momentum in the Series. The Boston Celtics have outscored the Miami Heat in more than half of the eight Quarters played in the first two games, while the Heat have managed to put more points on the board in just the Third Quarter of Game 1.

Erik Spoelstra is going to have spent the last couple of days thinking of the adjustments he needs to make to turn things around for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. However, things will be much tougher for the Miami Heat if they have to go without PJ Tucker, Max Struse and Gabe Vincent in Game 3 with all three players listed as Questionable in the last Miami injury report.

I do think all will suit up in this pivotal Game 3 with the Series shifting back to Boston and the TD Garden.

However, the Miami Heat are going to be put under intense pressure from the Boston Celtics who looked much stronger all around with Marcus Smart and Al Horford back in the rotation. An improvement was expected, but the Boston Celtics were able to do what they liked on both ends of the court and it is perhaps no surprise that they are going to be heading into Game 3 as a big favourite.

It is hard to see things much differently when you think of how well the Boston Celtics played in Game 2 and they also were pretty strong outside of one Quarter in Game 1. The size and athleticism of the Celtics is tough to match, but I do like how well the Miami Heat have been Coached and the feeling is that they can make the adjustments to keep this one closer than the last game was.

Much will depend on whether the Heat can get closer to the shooters from the three point range in this one, but I do think the Miami Heat will make the adjustments to do that.

The Heat are now 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games when beaten by double digits, while they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog.

At the same time the Boston Celtics are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five in the Conference Finals.

Teams playing with the zigzag theory behind them are 15-4-1 against the spread in the last twenty in that spot. Another trend behind the Heat is that teams who have lost by at least ten points in Game 2 have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten games in that spot and I do think the Number 1 Seed should be respected and looked at as a team that can keep this well within the line set.

Miami did beat a strong Boston team here at the end of March and I think the Miami Heat can upset the odds and keep this one close.

Sunday 22nd May

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A barrage of three pointers helped Dallas Mavericks move up into 19 point lead over the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 and the underdog had a big lead at half time. However, there has been much criticism of the game management in the second half and a poor Third Quarter allowed the Warriors to get back into the game and eventually use the momentum to kick past the Mavericks.

Being 2-0 down will hurt the Dallas Mavericks who have had to face the music with their approach in the second half of Game 2. Even Head Coach Jason Kidd made it clear that his team had to look for another way to attack the Golden State Warriors when the three pointers dried up in the second half as the game slipped away from them.

In the cold light of day, Jason Kidd seems to have changed his mind and it sounds like the Dallas Mavericks are going to continue to look for the open shooter from the three point range. They have taken a lot more shots from the distance than the Warriors in this Western Conference Finals Series, but the Mavericks are not hitting as efficiently as they would have liked and it has left them in a tough position.

The Dallas Mavericks were in the same position in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns, but they were much better at home in that Series and won all three games played here. The role players have been more confident in hitting their shots at home, while the Dallas Mavericks are 25-10 against the spread in their last thirty-five games at home.

It may surprise some to see the Mavericks as the favourite in this Game 3 at home, but teams coming into Game 3 with a 0-2 deficit have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten times that situation has come up. As mentioned, the Dallas role players have been more confident at home and able to sustain their Offensive output here, and they will look to put the pressure on the Golden State Warriors as they continue to 'live or die by the three'.

There is no doubt that it is difficult to oppose the Golden State Warriors who have been shooting the ball with more efficiency than the Dallas Mavericks and are plenty experienced. They have a depth which means any of their starters could pick up the scoring slack, but the Warriors will know they are going to have to try and match the intensity that the Mavericks will likely be playing with on Sunday.

Golden State have not covered in any of their last four road games and I do think the Dallas Mavericks can be backed here.

The sharp money looks to be on the Mavericks and I think they can cover to reignite this Western Conference Finals Series.

Monday 23rd May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: This is being written out a little later than normal for a very simple reason.

Injuries.

Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics feel banged up ahead of Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and even now there is some uncertainty as to who will be available and who will be having to miss out.

Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are Questionable for this important game for the Boston Celtics, while Jimmy Butler is the big concern for the Miami Heat. It sounds like Butler will suit up despite missing the second half of the previous game, while Tyler Herro could be a big absentee for the Number 1 Seed.

Jayson Tatum looks to have escaped an injury having had an issue with his shoulder in Game 3, but now the attention will be turning to those on the court after the Miami Heat made a fast start and held onto a lead and a win to move 2-1 ahead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

In a strange turn of events, the Miami Heat have only won two of the twelve Quarters that have been played by these teams in this Series, but those have come by a 25 point margin in the Third Quarter of Game 1 and a 21 point margin in the First Quarter of Game 3. Both times it has proved to be the difference with the Boston rally coming up short in the last game, while the Celtics know they can clean up some of their own issues to at least level the Series before we all head back to South Beach.

Turnovers have been the critical issue in both of those Quarters that have seen the Miami Heat pull away and win by big margins. The expectation is that the Celtics have the edge if they can be a little more careful with their basketball handling and I do think they will come out with the intensity they showed in Game 2 after a disappointing defeat.

Boston showed that throughout the Series with the Milwaukee Bucks too and they are now 5-0 against the spread in their last five following a loss. Despite the loss in Game 3, the Celtics remain a solid favourite to back, although you have to respect the Miami Heat for the performances as a road underdog.

However, the Heat were pretty well beaten in road games at the Philadelphia 76ers in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think they could potentially exhale after taking back home court advantage. With a couple of players banged up and with the Boston Celtics likely to be much more focused and intense, I am not sure the Heat can rely on the home team turning the ball over as much as they have a couple of times in the Series, including to open Game 3.

The public look to be behind the Heat with the points, but I like the Boston Celtics to bounce and continue the zigzag trend in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Home teams that are not 0-3 down going into Game 4 of the Conference Finals are also on a 9-2 run against the spread and I think the Boston Celtics cover on their way to levelling up the Eastern Conference Finals.

Tuesday 24th May

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: After rallying in Game 2, the Golden State Warriors headed to the Dallas Mavericks with a strong lead in the Western Conference Finals, and another strong Third Quarter showing helped the Warriors move to the brink of returning to the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years.

For those who thought the good times for over, this has been a surprising season put together by the Warriors, but all associated with Golden State had much stronger belief in their own team. The veterans of the Championship teams continue to lead the way, but the Warriors are well backed up now and will be confident in securing a win in Game 4 and have plenty of time to prepare for the NBA Finals which begins next week.

However, the Warriors have not been at their best in close out spots with a 3-0 lead in the Series and they are just 6-4 in the last ten Game 4s when they have moved into this position. The Denver Nuggets beat the Warriors in that situation earlier in the PlayOffs, but it is hard to back against the Golden State Warriors.

For starters, teams in a 0-3 hole have struggled in Game 4 of the Conference Finals, while the Dallas Mavericks will also know that no team in NBA history has been able to win a Series when they have fallen into this position.

Luka Doncic continues to try and carry the Mavericks on his back, but he was not helped by the role players in Game 3 with the likes of Reggie Bullock and Max Kleber combining for a 0/15 effort from the field. It wasn't as if the two were having to hit contested shots, but they missed open looks and ultimately it made it very difficult for the Mavericks to break down the Warriors.

At this point I don't think the Mavericks are going to change the plan and I expect them to continue shooting the ball at a high rate from the three point line. You have to believe they are going to have a bounce back effort from the poor outing in Game 3 and we did see the Dallas Mavericks pick up their play in Game 2 after an underwhelming Game 1 effort already in this Western Conference Finals.

Stopping the Warriors will be a huge challenge for the Mavericks who have allowed their opponent to score at least 109 points in each of the wins in the Series. They have a balance Offensive approach and that saw five of their players reach double digits in terms of points in the last game.

Luka Doncic is likely to stay in attack mode as he looks to become the third player in the history of the NBA to score at least 40 points in three Conference Finals games, but the I am expecting better from his role players and that could see this Game 4 surpass the total points line.

It is hard to imagine this Dallas Mavericks team being able to shut down the Golden State Warriors, but with a better shooting effort expected from the hosts, I think Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals Series could hit the over.

MY PICKS: 17/05 Miami Heat - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

18/05 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

20/05 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

21/05 Miami Heat + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

23/05 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

24/05 Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors Over 215.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 5-1, + 3.55 Units (6 Units Staked, + 59.17% Yield)

Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)