NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Games 5-7 (Tuesday 26th May-Sunday 31st May)

Most New York Knicks will say there have been a lot more downs than ups in the last quarter of a century as a fan of this team.

There have been marked improvements since the signing of Jalen Brunson and some of the other trades/signings that have been made to push the New York Knicks back into contention just a few years after they finished with the worst record in the NBA (17 wins in 2019).

Years of poor decisions had caught up with a team that had barely challenged since the Eastern Conference Finals of 2000.

Last year the Knicks finally made it back to the Conference Finals before running out steam against the Indiana Pacers, but the moves made between 2019 and 2026 have to be hugely respected and the entire organisation deserves some credit for being patient, which has not really been a feature of the Knicks.

Even then, this current Knicks roster deserves so much respect- they were not considered as Eastern Conference favourites even after winning the NBA Cup, but the team have found a positive formula at a very good time and eleven straight wins have finally brought the NBA Finals back to Gotham.

The performances in those eleven wins will have raised expectations, but the Western Conference Champion will be favourite when those Finals begin next Wednesday.

As a Knicks fan, everyone will be praying for a seven game Series out West and there is every chance of that happening with the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder tied at 2-2 and with the momentum shifting from game to game.

Game 5 feels like it could be decisive and that is going to be played on Tuesday.

Hopefully the New York Knicks are getting themselves rested and ready for what could be a special June.

NBA Playoff Picks- Conference Finals Game 5-7

Tuesday 26th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Victor Wembanyama was hugely critical of himself after the Game 3 loss at home and he came out in Game 4 looking to make a statement for the San Antonio Spurs.

For the second time in the Western Conference Finals, Victor Wembanyama decided to take over a game and for the second time the Spurs won to level up the Series before heading back to the home of the defending Champions.

Game 4 adjustments saw the Spurs move away from double-teaming Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and force the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar to get the ball out of his hands.

This time the Spurs looked comfortable allowing different players to challenge the regular season MVP and make sure they were not going to allow the Thunder shooters to spot up and make uncontested shots. With both Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams out of the rotation, the Spurs clearly believed they could take whatever Shai-Gilgeous Alexander was able to put together and would simply make others miss.

It worked- the Thunder had four players contribute at least 10 points from the bench in Game 3, but that was reduced to just two in Game 4, while the contested shots meant the Thunder moved from 17 three pointers in Game 3 to just 6 last time out.

Expecting little reaction from the Oklahoma City Thunder would be a mistake and there will be adjustments made by the defending Champions in what feels like a hugely important Game 5 for both of these teams.

The blowout might actually not be a bad thing for either team in Game 4- after the Double Overtime of Game 1, that blowout has allowed the key players to have significantly less time on the court last time out and that can only be a positive, but for both teams.

There has to be a concern in the home ranks that they are losing those players who can handle the ball in place of SGA, but this is a team that has overcome adversity time and time again over the last eighteen months. That experience can help with just a day of rest between games again, while being back home should be more comfortable for the role players who struggled all around in Game 4.

San Antonio fans will want to see Wemby continue to dominate, but they will also feel there is room for improvement from the three point range after a 27% effort in Game 4- some of the shooters were wide open playing off of Victor Wembanyama, but those shots need to start falling if the Spurs are going to earn the upset.

If they are going to reach the NBA Finals, the Spurs need another win on the road and this Game 5 will feel like a really good time to do that.

Historically Game 5 of the Conference Finals has been dominated by the higher Seeds and the favourites, which is something that the Oklahoma City Thunder are in both categories ahead of this one. Teams that have lost Game 4 have also bounced back very well in Game 5, which all points to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but this may be a spread where we have to go against recent trends and back the San Antonio Spurs to cover.

An aggressive Victor Wembanyama will be needed for that to happen and the Spurs may have found something from their superstar in Game 4 that can carry over to this one and at least give the San Antonio Spurs a chance to cover, even if they cannot win outright.

Thursday 28th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game 6 Pick: When you look at Victor Wembanyama and the size he has over most in the NBA you can be forgiven for forgetting that he is still a young player in the League and one who has never played in the pressurised environment of the post-season before 2026.

With that in mind, it cannot be a surprise when the superstar has a 'learning game' and that is what Game 5 will feel like for Wembanyama and for the fans.

There is no doubting that Wemby has a real desire to be seen as the best basketball player in the world and he has all of the tools to become that- some have put pressure on the Frenchman to crown himself by helping the San Antonio Spurs reach the NBA Finals, but they are now a game away from elimination... And that has a lot to do with an awful outing from Victor Wembanyama.

He was bullied out of the paint and a 4-15 shooting day is not going to cut it, while the Spurs missed Victor Wembanyama's presence around the boards on both ends of the floor. The role players tried to keep the Spurs going, but San Antonio are well aware that Wembanyama needs to be operating at his best if they are going to win the Western Conference Finals.

It was a dud in Game 5 and the Spurs lost- the two best performances produced by Victor Wembanyama in this Series in Game 1 and Game 4 have both ended in San Antonio wins and they will need him to give all that he has to force this Series back to Oklahoma City for a decider.

Minor adjustments have to be made and you have to think the Spurs Coaching staff are going to encourage Victor Wembanyama to take more control at both ends of the court. It has been a tough, physical Series and there were signs of some wear and tear, but being back at home offers everyone on the San Antonio roster a boost.

The defending Champions Oklahoma City Thunder will be much more grateful for the poor effort produced by Wemby considering their own star Shai-Gilgeous Alexander also put together a below par effort. He still contributed plenty, but the Spurs would have looked at that SGA stat-line and feel they have missed an opportunity to get in front and close out this Conference Finals at home on Thursday.

Both Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell missed out- the latter is going to miss Game 6 and the former remans Questionable.

Despite those absences, the Oklahoma City Thunder will have been pleased with the way the bench kept the team in front of the San Antonio Spurs and held off some of the rallies.

Four of the five starters scored at least 12 points, while Alex Caruso recovered from a poor Game 4 to produce 22 points from the bench.

The Thunder have to expect a reaction and the role players have tended to find things more challenging on the road. Oklahoma City had the edges in terms of efficiency of the three point shooting and also won on the glass and that will give them encouragement, although the team will likely need more as they look to reach the NBA Finals and earn some rest before those begin next week.

Teams that have won Game 5 have tended to back that up in Game 6 and those in a close out spot are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven games when this situation has come up.

However, Number 1 Seeds have not been the best to back when they have been set as small favourites or underdogs and there is almost certainly going to be some kind of reaction from Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.

They missed an opportunity in Game 5, but the fans are going to be right behind the Spurs and that should help this team at least force a one game decider back out on the road this weekend.

Covering will be tough, but this is a Spurs team that will be listening to the criticism and they can come out with more authority from the opening tip as they did in Game 4 here.

Saturday 30th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: Every single New York Knicks fan out there will have been very happy to see the Western Conference Finals go to seven games for the first time in eight years.

Both Conference Finals reached seven games in 2018 and the Golden State Warriors ended up sweeping the Eastern Conference Champions Cleveland Cavaliers, but in 2026, the New York Knicks are going to be well rested as they await to see whether they are visiting San Antonio or Oklahoma City for Games 1 and 2 of the NBA Finals next week.

As expected, Victor Wembanyama came out in Game 6 with a chip on his shoulder and he produced a big First Quarter and dominant opening half to put the San Antonio Spurs in a position to win and force this Game 7 decider.

Of course you have to credit the other players around Wembanyama for their performances and it was a big run in the Third Quarter with Wemby on the bench that saw the San Antonio Spurs break the game open and eventually tie things up.

It is going to feel like the momentum is back with the San Antonio Spurs, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are defending Champions and they have been very good at home over the last two post-season runs. Last year the Thunder finished 11-2 at home in the Playoffs and they are 6-1 this season with a couple of comfortable wins recorded over the San Antonio Spurs in these Western Conference Finals.

Game 6 was another poor effort from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the role players struggled on the road, which has been a thing in the NBA in recent years.

The MVP is always going to be under pressure to lead the team, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 19 Points in Game 4 and 15 Points in Game 6... Those are numbers that are simply not going to get the job done.

However, in Game 5 back at home, SGA scored 32 Points and that was key, even if sixteen of those came at the Free Throw line.

Both teams are well aware that the role players are important, but this is a Conference Finals that will be decided by the two star players on either side of the court.

When Victor Wembanyama has played well, the Spurs have won, but the three games in which they have lost, the 22 year old has shown some of the inexperience of playing in a first NBA Playoff run. The Frenchman came out with a lot more energy and aggressive intent in Game 6 and that opened things up for the other San Antonio Spurs to step up and it is imperative for the road team that Victor Wembanyama comes out with a similar mindset.

It is a make or miss League though and not everyone will be comfortable with Wemby trying to line up three pointers instead of trying to dominate the paint and opening up those shooting lanes for others.

He was more active around the boards, which was hugely important for the Spurs, but there still has to be more to come from the likes of De'Aaron Fox if San Antonio are going to win for a second time on the road.

Oklahoma City welcomed back Jalen Williams for Game 6, but he offered limited minutes from the bench and also struggled when he was on the floor, which is not a big surprise. The Thunder will hope J-Dub can offer more in this 'win or go home' setting, while a deep bench has to win those moments when Victor Wembanyama is on the bench.

Both teams will have no excuses for fatigue after key players were withdrawn pretty early in Game 6 as things got out of hand for the Oklahoma City Thunder, but picking a winner is tough.

All respect has to be given to the Thunder for the way they have bounced back at home on two occasions already in the Western Conference Finals, while they can expect role players to be more comfortable in front of their own fans. This is an experienced team that won the NBA Championship eleven months ago and the Thunder are 17-3 at home over the last two post-season runs.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be more of an influence at home after a couple of below par efforts on the road, but the others around him have to find spacing and make their shots.

The Thunder have been better at doing that home, while recent Game 7s in Conference Finals offer little in terms of trends- they have tended to be lower scoring, but the line for this Game 7 is pretty tight in terms of the total, while the team that won Game 6 is only 3-3 both straight up and against the spread in this decider to reach the NBA Finals.

Both teams have won once on the road in this Western Conference Finals, but the lean for the selection is backing this Game 7 to end up over the totals line set.

Three point shooting has been something both teams have tried to use to open things up inside the paint, while fouls have led to a number of Free Throws. The last six Game 7s in Conference Finals have all finished 'under' the total, but four of the six games in the Western Conference Finals have ended with the total surpassed and that would have been the case in Game 6 if the starters had been on the court for longer than they were with that one ending a couple of points shy of an 'over' hitting.

Simply put it is hard to pick a winner- there is perhaps some value in picking the San Antonio Spurs to win outright, rather than backing them with this small number of points on the handicap. If they cover, it is more than likely going to be in a straight up win, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have likely got another punch in them and this may come down to which of the role players steps up for longest to back up the superstars, who have to also have big outings.

MY PICKS: 26/05 San Antonio Spurs + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/05 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

30/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-San Antonio Spurs Over 212.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals: 9-2, + 6.24 Units (11 Units Staked, + 56.73% Yield)

Second Round: 5-8, - 3.45 Units (13 Units Staked, - 26.54% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 12th May-Monday 18th May)

The First Round produced a number of tough, gruelling Series, but it has been a different story in the Second Round.

My New York Knicks have continued to impress and have swept past the Philadelphia 76ers to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again and the experiences from last year are expected to help this team.

For most of the fans, the NBA Finals has to be the minimum aim and winning the NBA Cup earlier in the season raised expectations- the performances in the Playoffs have been even more impressive since falling 2-1 behind in the First Round and seven straight wins means the Knicks will be confident whether they play the Detroit Pistons or the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is a Series that is definitely reaching Game 5.

The Western Conference Series between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves is the only one that is definitely going to need a Game 6, at least at the time of writing.

A long Series likely benefits the Oklahoma City Thunder, even if they are forced into a Game 5 in their own Series against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they should be awaiting the winner of the other Second Round Series in the West and the defending Champions still look the team to beat.

The selections from Game 5-7 of the Second Round Series still being played will be placed in this thread and then a new thread will begin this weekend when the Conference Finals are hoping to begin.

Tuesday 12th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Playoff Games are always going to have factors that can determine the outcome of a contest, which are almost impossible to predict for the watching fans.

One is clearly injury related- losing a big name in the middle of a Playoff Game and within a Series can tip things one way or the other very quickly.

The other is teams beginning to get fed up of one another and a growing dislike leading to ejections.

Without a doubt, Game 4 of this Western Conference Series will have been massively impacted by the Victor Wembanyama ejection in the Second Quarter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves took advantage by attacking the rim and using their bigger players inside the paint as they rallied for a win over the San Antonio Spurs. Players in Timberwolves uniform admitted that the absence of Wemby on the court helped them game plan much more effectively and the momentum is back with Minnesota, even if they have to replicate Game 1 and win one on the road.

The expectation is that the League is not going to suspend Victor Wembanyama for another game, but will see the relatively early ejection in Game 4 as being enough punishment.  Even without him on the court, the San Antonio Spurs showed some of the depth on the roster with other stepping up and that will mean the Number 2 Seed should still be operating with a lot of confidence.

Head Coach Mitch Johnson was highly critical of the physicality the officials are allowing the Timberwolves to play with and he refused to blame Victor Wembanyama, although privately you have to expect him to try and make sure his superstar remains as composed as possible. The Timberwolves are going to feel they have found a chink in the armour of the Spurs' best player and you have to expect them to throw bodies at him again and hope to reel in another mistake.

Minnesota also have to be really happy with the level that Anthony Edwards is producing and it is important for the road team to find a way to get the supporting cast going on the road.

The last time they played in this building, Head Coach Chris Finch stated his team had been 'punked' and it is crucial for the Timberwolves to come out with real intensity.

You have to expect a fired up crowd, but more worrying is going to be the focus and threat of Victor Wembanyama who is going to want to dominate and make up for the error of judgment he had in Game 4.

Standing in the way of that is never an easy decision with superstars routinely making it their whole focus to bounce back when they feel they have not had their best outing or let their teammates down.

It is easy to see a situation in which the Spurs come out hard and fast and blow Minnesota away, but three of the four games have been highly competitive and the Timberwolves have won here already in this Series. They will need to make some adjustments to deal with the Wemby presence, but Minnesota have to be excited by what Anthony Edwards is bringing onto the court and that could see them keep this one competitive.

Big home favourites have not been the best to back in recent NBA Playoff Second Round Series, while those favoured by at least 5.5 points in Game 5 are on a run of 12-19 against the spread.

Any home team favoured by at least 8.5 points are now on a run of 11-23 against the spread in the Second Round (3-2 against the spread this season) and, while there are a couple of solid trends that land in favour of this angry San Antonio team, the Timberwolves can make use of the amount of points being handed to them in this Game 5.

Wednesday 13th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 5 Pick: Momentum is back with the Cleveland Cavaliers after holding serve twice at home, but they still have to do something they have not managed to do in the post-season to this point... Win on the road.

Six wins have been produced at home having taking Game 3 and Game 4 against the Detroit Pistons, but the two earlier road losses means the Cavaliers have lost all five road Playoff games played.

Simply put, the Cavaliers will not be able to progress without beating the Pistons at least once on the road and they have an attempt at doing that in Game 5.

Donovan Mitchell came alive in the second half of Game 4 to swing things back in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he will need some of the teammates to step up in these road atmospheres. It has long been a feature of the Playoffs that players have had vastly different experiences when playing at home and on the road, but that is especially the case for the role players who try and aid the superstar.

The Cavaliers have struggled in the main and the losses have piled up, but they will feel they have found a formula for success in the last two games at home and building on that is the key.

For the top Seed, two road losses in relatively close contests will hurt, but the Detroit Pistons have to believe there are 'easier' adjustments to be made when returning home.

The bench stepped up in Game 4, but the starters all had their problems and that should be easier to clean up in front of the home fans.

Cade Cunningham does need to see one or two of the other starters to pick up their level, but he will be encouraged by the support of the bench and the Detroit Pistons should feel more comfortable at home.

Perhaps more importantly, the officials are less likely to be overwhelmed by the atmosphere as the Pistons have felt they have been in the two road defeats.

Head Coach JB Bickerstaff made his feelings clear about what he felt was home officiating by mentioning the huge disparity in the Free Throw numbers awarded in Game 4 and it was clear that made a difference in the outcome of a close game. He even mentioned the fact that he feels the whistles against his team have become more frequent because of comments made by Cleveland Head Coach Kenny Atkinson, but the home crowd are going to be on top of the officials in this one and that could even things up.

If they are even on the Free Throw attempts, you have to give the Detroit Pistons a slight edge.

Defensively they have shown they can slow down this Cleveland team for long enough to hold them off and the Pistons are in a decent enough spot as a relatively small home favourite in Game 5.

It should also be noted that teams who lost Game 4 by at least seven points have bounced back in recent years to produce a 19-7 record against the spread in Game 5 and the Detroit Pistons can remind all about their prospects by winning and covering to take a lead in this Second Round Series with two games left to play.

Friday 15th May

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 6 Pick: Much like the Orlando Magic in the First Round Series, there is now going to be a question about the top Seed Detroit Pistons and how much they have left to battle back after blowing a big lead in Game 5 of this Second Round Series.

With time running down at the end of the Fourth Quarter and with a 9 point lead, the Detroit Pistons had to have felt that they were about to take a 3-2 lead in this back and forth Series.

Instead they went ice cold from the field and allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to not only rally to force Overtime, but then continue the momentum early into that period to take a lead that they were able to manage to the end of the game.

And just like that, the Cavaliers have won on the road for the first time in the Playoffs and return home on Friday with an opportunity to book their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the momentum is with the Cleveland Cavaliers who had 15 fewer shots than the Detroit Pistons in Game 5, but once again dominated the number of Free Throws being taken. The Cavaliers have rallied from a 2-0 deficit to take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and all of the adjustments have to be made by the Detroit Pistons.

The four key starters of the Cavaliers all had big outings in Game 5, but the team also had a big impact off the bench from Max Strus- the real concern for the Pistons was going to be trying to match the Offensive power Cleveland has on the court and that has proven to be the difference.

Cade Cunningham did all he could to help his team, but the other four starters had just 47 points combined to add to the 39 he was scoring himself. There was a hope that Jalen Duren would eventually produce his regular season form in the post-season, but he has continued to struggle and there is now a real question for the Pistons to answer about his suitability to start Game 6.

Something has to change for the Pistons if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home this weekend, but it is a big ask.

Underdogs have played well in Game 6 in recent Second Round Series, but three losses in a row have shifted all momentum to the lower Seed who will feel this is their one big opportunity to progress to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Top Seeds set as underdogs have a losing record in recent Second Round Series in that spot and the Pistons are 0-2 against the spread in that situation within this one.

The Pistons have shown all season how good they can be, but this may go down as a learning experience in the post-season and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the firepower to close things out in front of the home fans.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Pick: Everyone was expecting a big reaction from Victor Wembanyama after his Game 4 ejection, but seemingly the memo was not read by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Another slow start cost them Game 5 and Wembanyama had a dominant impact to help the San Antonio Spurs take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and look to close things out as soon as Friday.

Winning on the road is never easy, but the Spurs have done that once already in this Series and were beaten in the other outing in Minnesota when Wemby was ejected before the end of the first half.

Close out spots have tended to be more comfortable for road teams and the Spurs look to have the momentum to make sure they can do that here and avoid the pressure on a Game 7. Instead they will want to make sure they are as energetic as they can be for what is looking like becoming a top Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Timberwolves are going to have something to say about that and the extra day between games for the first time in this Series can only help them as they look to make some adjustments. Having that time for Anthony Edwards to rest his knee can only be a positive, but the Timberwolves need to find some solid, consistent support for the best player on the roster, much as San Antonio did in Game 5 to back up Victor Wembanyama.

Role players do tend to find things a bit more comfortable at home, while the Minnesota fanbase is going to be right behind a team that have earned Playoff upsets before and have the experience of overcoming the odds.

It certainly makes the Timberwolves dangerous, but the San Antonio Spurs have an experience of the atmosphere that is going to be facing them and they will feel they have been the better team in the Series since dropping Game 1. Having players like De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle producing some quality basketball without Wemby in Game 4 will only have given the Spurs that much more confidence and they have it within themselves to win for a second time on the road.

As mentioned, Game 6 of the Second Round Series have leaned in favour of the underdog, but like the Eastern Conference Series that has played out this far, the feeling is that the favourite in Game 6 may have broken the back of the Series with a Game 5 win.

Big road favourites have not always been the best to back in the Second Round Series, but those teams are 2-2 against the spread in 2026 and one of those defeats was Game 4 of this Series, which shifted significantly after the Wemby ejection.

Assuming he keeps his cool, Victor Wembanyama can erase memories of that Game 4 by leading the Spurs to a big win and a place in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2017 when they were swept by the Golden State Warriors.

Sunday 17th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: This has been an incredibly difficult Second Round Series to call and even when you think you have gotten to grips with it, something changes the narrative.

It really felt the big Game 5 comeback and win in Overtime had given the Cleveland Cavaliers all of the momentum in the Series with three straight wins behind them and a home game to earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers had not lost a home game in the post-season, but they were blown away by the top Seeded Detroit Pistons who have won an elimination game for the fourth time already in the 2026 Playoffs.

The Cavaliers also played a Game 7 elimination game in the First Round, but that was at home and this is going to be a tough spot for an experienced team.

Experience can also mean previous poor experience and that is the case for Donovan Mitchell who has been the focus of some of the criticism for the Game 6 defeat on Friday night- he has never been part of a team that has missed the Playoffs, but Mitchell has yet to reach the Conference Finals in either the East or West, while he has been on a team that has lost six straight Game 6s after the defeat at home.

James Harden was brought into Cleveland for situations like this, but Donovan Mitchell has long been the key for the Cavaliers and he has to have a big outing if the Number 4 Seed are going to earn the spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the questions will be posed for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons are trying to downplay the pressure that may still be on their shoulders.

The team continue to suggest the 2026 Playoffs are an experience builder, but they will be extremely disappointed if they were to lose the last two home games and fail to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.

Winning on the road in the manner they did on Friday has to give the team belief, while Cade Cunningham will be very happy to see a couple of key starting teammates find some form. The Pistons know what they are going to get from Cunningham, but the likes of Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson have to ride the momentum of Game 6 and bring some of that Offensive firepower into this deciding contest.

Doing that will put the Pistons in a strong position as they continue to show up Defensively and that may be the key in Game 7 on Sunday.

Favourites have struggled in Game 7 of recent Second Round Series, but the team that have won Game 6 have a 10-3 record against the spread in this 'winner takes all' game.

You have to expect a big reaction from the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons should have beaten them here in Game 5 and they may do just enough to do that in what should be a tense, loud atmosphere in the home Arena.

MY PICKS: 12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Detroit Pistons - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

15/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

15/05 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

17/05 Detroit Pistons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Second Round Update: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2026- First Round Game 5-7 (Monday 27th April-Sunday 3rd May)

The First Round Series have provided plenty of drama and there are at least two Game 6s to be played in the Eastern Conference, while teams like the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets will be looking to push Series at least that far, even from 1-3 deficits to overcome.

Injuries are a crucial factor at this time of the season and we have seen a number of those really changing the narrative not only around the First Round Series to be played, but potentially much further into the Playoffs.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are reeling with both Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo expected to miss significant time and they will be looking to find a way past the Denver Nuggets. That likely means a Second Round Series against the San Antonio Spurs, who have just had Victor Wembanyama return from a concussion,

It might be the kind of situation that would suit the Spurs- if the Timberwolves can upset the Nuggets and move through, it is a more comfortable Series anyway, but a shorthanded Minnesota would be something San Antonio are really comfortable in facing before a potential Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City Thunder,

And if a healthier Los Angeles Lakers team moves into the Second Round, the Western Conference Bracket may actually shift in favour of the San Antonio Spurs.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are doing what they do best and look to be cruising through to the Second Round.

They have a big chance to finish the First Round Series in Game 5, while the likes of the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are all due to play a Game 6 at the minimum.

And that is if the Pistons are going to find a way to turn around a 1-2 deficit and make it through to the next Round.

Selections from the remainder of the First Round Series will be placed here as the Series come to a close, but those will begin on Tuesday after the Denver Nuggets were set as a big favourite to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves that have been ravaged by injury.

However, my concern is that the role players have a couple of big efforts in them to find a way to help the Timberwolves move through this Series.

If they are blown out, Minnesota might be set at a tempting line to cover as what is expected to be a home underdog in Game 6, but that is going to be answered following the Monday Game 4.

Tuesday 28th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The return of Joel Embiid will have given the Philadelphia 76ers a lift and there was nothing wrong with his performance in Game 4.

Unfortunately for Embiid and his team, the Boston Celtics have not changed the approach taken and that means bludgeoning the 76ers from the three point distance.

Over the last few seasons, it has become clear that the Celtics will be happy to live and die by the three pointer with the full belief in the shooters and making those plays often enough to win games and, ultimately, Series. That looks unlikely to change and this Game 5 really comes down to whether you believe the 76ers can either restrict the Boston Celtics from finding their rhythm or, more likely, whether Philadelphia can find enough shots to keep up.

Nothing we have seen from this Series suggests anything other than another comfortable win for the Boston Celtics and they can come through Game 5 with another big win and a cover of the spread set.

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Victor Wembanyama was back, but the San Antonio Spurs perhaps lost some focus in the first half of Game 4 as they looked to take control of this First Round Series.

There must have been words exchanged at half time because the Spurs came out with a lot more intensity in the second half and they crushed the Portland Trail Blazers at both ends of the court.

Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5s when it comes to the wins, but the cover rate is below 50%.

However, the Spurs are the second team liked in that spot and that is because they look like they are now settled into the post-season and the Portland Trail Blazers may struggle to be competitive enough at both ends of the court.

Respect has to be given to the Trail Blazers for the intensity, grit and determination taken into this season, the Play In Tournament and into this Series, but they are short of the required quality to match this deep Spurs team. Experience will give Portland plenty to take into the next season, but this one could come to a close as soon as Tuesday and the San Antonio Spurs may just end up pulling away as they have in the last couple of road wins to take control of this Series and for a place in the Western Conference Second Round.

Sunday 3rd May

Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: You do have to wonder if the Orlando Magic are going to regret going absolutely ice-cold from the field in Game 6 of this First Round Series just when it looked like they were going to eliminate the top Seed in the Eastern Conference. This side of the bracket could have become wide open if the Magic and Toronto Raptors are able to upset higher Seeds, but both have to win a Game 7 on the road.

A couple of minutes into the Third Quarter of Game 6 at home, the Orlando Magic led the Detroit Pistons by 24 points.

For whatever reason, Orlando began to struggle and the fightback from the Detroit Pistons must have overwhelmed them as a 42-10 run turned things around.

The Magic finished with just 79 points in Game 6 having scored 62 early into the Third Quarter and the key in this one is making the adjustments to slow down the flow if things begin to work against them again. They have already won on the road at the Detroit Pistons in this Series, while one of the defeats was only by a 7 point margin and that should give the Magic some confidence, even if they have to shake off what happened in the last game.

For the Number 1 Seed, the situation will feel much more manageable having overcome staring into the abyss in Game 6 and using the home fans is so important. The Pistons have some Playoff experience and they will certainly take heart in the fact that the favourites have tended to win Game 7 in the First Round of the Playoffs.

Franz Wagner's absence will favour the Pistons, who have won both games he has missed in the First Round Series, but Orlando have to believe they showed enough physicality to give the Detroit Pistons trouble.

In saying all that, the collapse in Game 6 is the one that can stick with a team for a long time and that does make it harder to trust the Orlando Magic with little time to recover mentally and physically.

All of the pressure is on the Detroit Pistons, even now, and that could help the road team who many will believe have missed their best chance to eliminate this top Seed.

The Pistons will likely find a way to win, but the Magic are being given a lot of points in this Game 7 and the underdog is 11-8-1 against the spread in recent games in this situation.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick: The manner of the opening two defeats in this First Round Series suggested the higher Seeds were right in identifying the Toronto Raptors as one of the weaker teams that could be faced in the opening Playoff Series.

The Cleveland Cavaliers may certainly have believed that, but it is the Raptors who have won three of the next four games to force a Game 7.

They were without Brandon Ingram in Game 6, but that did not stop Toronto and they forced Overtime and ultimately outlasted Cleveland to hold serve and force this Game 7 on the road.

If they want to progress, the Raptors have to be the first in this Series to win a road game.

Confidence won't be an issue, even if Ingram is unable to suit up again, and the Toronto Raptors have to believe they have shown enough about how well they are matching up in the Series. They have fewer adjustments to make as we reach the decider in this Series and all of the pressure is on the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is something that the Raptors have to look to exploit.

After signing Donovan Mitchell to a big contract and then trading for James Harden, it is clear that the Cavaliers are all in on this season and losing in the First Round of the Playoffs will lead to massive questions to answer. Both players have had moments, but you can feel the pressure that is building on both and that is also leading to more pressure on the role players to step up.

Being at home should give the Cavaliers enough of an advantage to find a way through, but they are giving plenty of points to a team that have the momentum.

Like the other Game 7 being played on Sunday, the Cavaliers will know favourites have tended to win these deciders in First Round Series, but they are just 8-11-1 against the spread.

After the two opening 'blowouts', the Raptors have covered in the last four in a row and they can do that again in Game 7 even if they are ultimately eliminated.

MY PICKS: 28/04 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/04 San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Orlando Magic + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Toronto Raptors + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoff Picks 2025- NBA Finals (Thursday 5th June-Sunday 22nd June)

Plans were being made to at least be in New York City IF the Knicks were to finally make it back into the NBA Finals, but the Indiana Pacers had other ideas and there are already some big changes being made in Gotham to get their team over the line.

Credit has to be given to the Pacers who reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year and who have moved through the Playoffs with some big wins over a former, recent Champion, the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and then getting the better of the New York Knicks for a second year in a row.

They look a potentially dangerous team and one that could have more to come, but they are facing the top Seed in the Western Conference and an Oklahoma City Thunder team that have looked the one to beat all season.

The Denver Nuggets almost secured the upset over the Thunder in the Second Round, but Oklahoma City have used that to fuel them and the crushing win over the Minnesota Timberwolves means they enter the Finals as a significant favourite.

It may not be the NBA Finals that some of the television executives would have hoped for, but there is a potential for it to be a fun Series with the way both the Pacers and Thunder approach their Basketball.

After a couple of strong Playoff runs for the NBA Picks, 2025 has proven to be more challenging. The Conference Finals selections were in a terrible position to open, but there is some momentum from turning things around and hopefully the NBA Finals Picks can at least turn a profit to round out the season.

All selections from the NBA Finals will be placed in this one thread.

NBA Finals 2025- Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder (June 5th-22nd)

Thursday 5th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals features two teams where both would have expected to be taking part in this Series, but only one that the public would have believed in.

For much of the last eighteen months, the Oklahoma City Thunder have looked like a developing team that were ready to move from potential into Champions.

However, they were upset in the Second Round of the Playoffs last season and the same almost happened in 2025- this time the Thunder found a way to progress in Game 7 and the comfortable Series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves means they will go in as favourites to win the NBA Finals.

Fans, and the layers, have believed in Oklahoma City all season and they were amongst the market leaders even before the first tip-off.

On the other side, the Indiana Pacers may have felt overlooked by outsiders and they were considered an underdog even when the Playoffs began with the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics seen as much more likely NBA Finalists. The Pacers had experience though having reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and this is a team and a Coaching staff that have full belief in what they are trying to do.

The Pacers have dropped just four games in beating Milwaukee, Cleveland and the New York Knicks in the Playoff run and the Offensive power has been really impressive. There is a depth to the rotation that makes them dangerous and this will give Indiana fans real hope that they can upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

Key players will have to perform at a top level and the Pacers are also going to be tested by an Oklahoma City rotation that can match their depth from the bench. There is no doubt that the Thunder can go score for score if needed, but the real difference between the teams may be on the Defensive side of the court where Oklahoma City have played at an elite level.

Unlike the teams that have been beaten by the Pacers, the Oklahoma City Thunder will feel they have the players that can rotate around and really put the clamp on this strong Offensive unit.

They did meet twice in the regular season and the Indiana Pacers will take encouragement from the fact they scored 111 and 114 points in those games, although they lost both, which underlines how tough it may be to find the balance needed to beat the top Seed coming out of the Western Conference.

The game hosted by the Thunder was played as recently as the end of March and resulted in a 19 point win for the home team.

Oklahoma City are being asked to cover a big number in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but they are in a position where recent hosts in the NBA Finals have produced dominant wins. In the last eleven, those hosts have a 9-2 record against the spread and have won by an average of over 13 points per game, while home favourites being asked to lay at least 4.5 points have a 21-10-2 record against the spread since 2013.

It is a big number for Game 1 considering what we have seen from the Indiana Pacers on the Offensive side of the court, but it does feel like the Thunder are significantly better and that could play out to lay an early marker down for the entire NBA Finals.

Sunday 8th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: For long periods of Game 1, it felt like the Oklahoma City Thunder were in complete control and almost certainly going to be picking up the win.

However, they were not quite able to kick clear of the Indiana Pacers and teams have found out throughout the post-season that allowing the Eastern Conference Champions to stick around has been very dangerous. They have already had a number of historical comebacks during the Playoff run and the Indiana Pacers became the first team to be trailing by at least 9 points with three minutes left in a Conference Finals game and still manage to secure the win.

All credit has to be given to a team that have quality, but also a depth and balance that has proven to be too much for so many to handle. There is a real belief in one another, which means looking to find the open man no matter who it is, and the three point shooting continues to be a solid pathway to keeping Indiana within range of striking.

Tyrese Haliburton made the headlines for his game-winning shot, but he will feel there is so much room for improvement after a game in which he had 14 Points, 10 Rebounds and 6 Assists.

The Offensive balance mentioned is underlined by the fact that none of the Indiana players managed to score 20 points, but six players all had at least 10 points. Winning a game on the road without someone dominating and with the heavy turnovers will have given Indiana so much belief and the pressure will have shifted onto the Oklahoma City Thunder having lost home advantage and desperate to avoid being in a 0-2 hole when travelling to Indiana next week.

The Thunder will be tasked with making adjustments and that may begin with a more consistent three point shooting game and just resetting the Defensive schemes. They began really well, but Indiana were not stopped in the second half and that ultimately proved to be an issue when the Thunder's own Offensive firepower lessened.

Indiana have to be respected having led 2-0 in each of the three Playoff Series that have been won and they will be focused as they look to take a firm grip of the NBA Finals.

However, hosts have tended to play well in Game 2 of the Conference Finals and those that have lost Game 1 of any Playoff Series have largely bounced back with big wins. The Pacers avoided that fate when beating the Cleveland Cavaliers for a second time in a row in the Second Round, but the Oklahoma City Thunder crushed the Denver Nuggets having been upset in Game 1 in the same Round.

Over the last four years, those teams are 21-7 straight up and the Thunder have shown all season that they can rally even after a disappointing result.

There has to be a respect for a Pacers team that have played hard over the last month and during a 2025 NBA Playoffs where so many big leads have evaporated. However, you cannot dismiss the Thunder after a single game and they may just rally for a strong win in Game 2 in front of the home fans.

Wednesday 11th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: There won't have been much surprise about the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder put up a big response to dropping Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the 16 point win in Game 2 was even more comfortable than the final score might have suggested.

The momentum may have swung back to the Western Conference Champions, and favourites to win the NBA Championship, but the Indiana Pacers have responded to setbacks right through the NBA Playoff run.

Ultimately the Pacers will be returning home feeling like they have achieved their most immediate goal and that is taking away home advantage from the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is the first time in the post-season that the Indiana Pacers are not leading 2-0 after the first two games, which is going to be challenging, but there is a real feeling amongst the Pacers players and staff that there are many adjustments they can still make.

With that in mind, the 1-1 score after two games is pretty good for Indiana who should have lost both games, but continue to show they can rally at key moments.

However, the adjustments that they need to make are clear and the Pacers are still in 'prove it' mode as they look to get the team on track in Game 3. Slow starts have been a feature of the opening two games, but the Pacers have not allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to pull too far away and they will be expecting role players to produce much better being back at home.

Tyrese Haliburton took the headlines for his game winning shot in Game 1, but he has only scored 31 points in the two games played and the Pacers have yet to have a single player reach 20 points. This has to change, as Haliburton has acknowledged, while the slow starts also cannot continue with Indiana being forced to fight out of holes.

They scored 45 first half points in Game 1 and just 41 points in Game 2, but the Pacers have found a stronger rhythm in the second half of both of those games. Unfortunately for Indiana, they were down in a deep hole in Game 2 and could not really force their way back into that one as a contest and so that is something Rick Carlisle and the team have to address if they are going to find a way back to Oklahoma City either 3-1 ahead or, at worse, at 2-2.

Indiana's depth has impressed, but those bench players have not been as effective as they need and there is some pressure on the starters to come out and fire. The Pacers have been in decent shape when the starting five have been on the court, but they just need to make some adjustments to try and put some pressure on a Thunder Defensive unit that have impressed all season.

It is tough to oppose Oklahoma City, but this is a team that have had more challenges when playing on the road and the Indiana Pacers should still have plenty of belief in what they are trying to do. With the home crowd behind them, Indiana should be able to make a faster start and some of the bench players should be more comfortable being back in their own Arena.

At the same time, perhaps the Thunder bench is not as effective now they are operating in a hostile environment and so the points on offer with the home team look appealing.

Teams that have been blown out in the NBA Finals have struggled in their next game, but that was not the case in the 2024 Series and the Indiana Pacer can bounce back. They can take comfort from the fact that teams that have won Game 2 have followed up with a 4-8 record against the spread in Game 3, while it cannot be ignored that the Oklahoma City Thunder are 0-7 against the spread as the road favourite in the NBA Playoffs this season, despite being 4-3 straight up in those games.

The Pacers are 6-2 straight up at home in the Playoff run in 2025 and they are 1-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog.

There are likely going to be moments when the Thunder look like they can pull away for another big win, but the Indiana Pacers have shown they can make the adjustments before and during games when things have gone against them. Those have seen the Pacers surprise at times and they may be able to keep this one competitive and potentially pull the upset outright.

Friday 13th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: There may have been some fans disappointed with the match up in the NBA Finals, but the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will not be worrying about that.

In reality the disappointment is really with the Eastern Conference Champions and the fact that the Indiana Pacers were largely outplayed in the opening two games backed up those criticisms, even if they were returning home at 1-1. The layers also believed that the Oklahoma City Thunder were going to roll past the Indiana Pacers having recovered from the heartbreaking Game 1 loss, but this is an Indiana team who have consistently produced and who have continued to defy the odds.

They were much better in Game 3 compared with the two road games and the Indiana Pacers won as the underdog and are 2-1 ahead in the NBA Finals. Game 4 is also being played in their home building and the Indiana Pacers will not be too concerned about being set as a big underdog again as they look to make use of the day of rest between games.

A Series that has little rest time would benefit the Indiana Pacers who looked to have worn down the Oklahoma City Thunder at the end of Game 3.

However, this young Thunder team deserve a lot of respect as being one that has consistently bounced back from setbacks all season and you have to believe that some adjustments will be made. The starting players may need to play a few more points after the bench and role players predictably struggled in a hostile environment and the Oklahoma City Thunder will look to clean up their own game with too many turnovers proving to be their undoing.

The concern for the Western Conference Champions is that the Indiana role players really showed up to the party in Game 3 and the likes of Tyrese Haliburton produced their best performance of the Finals. Being back at home will help them too and a real worry for the Thunder is they lost a game in which the Pacers hit just 9 three pointers.

Most would have predicted that a heavy scoring day from beyond the arc would be needed if the Indiana Pacers were going to win games and so managing to do that in Game 3 without makes the Pacers very dangerous.

They will continue to push the tempo and look to gas out the Thunder, as the Pacers have done to so many of the opponents faced already in this post-season and it is difficult to oppose Indiana with this amount of points being given to them.

As mentioned ahead of Game 3, the Oklahoma City Thunder's record as a road favourite in the Playoffs has to be a worry with the team dropping to 4-4 straight up and 0-8 against the spread. At the same time the Pacers improved to 7-2 straight up and they are 2-1 against the spread as the home underdog.

In recent years, teams who won Game 3 have a poor record at covering the spread in Game 4 (1-4 against the spread) and home teams are just 3-8 against the spread. We have seen the Thunder bounce back impressively from setbacks and those trends are going against the selection, but this Indiana Pacers team are unlikely to be bothered about a day of rest between games and they have the tempo and intensity to avoid the blowout and, potentially, earn the outright upset for a third time in the NBA Finals in 2025.

Monday 16th June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Two full days of rest has been given to the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals and some of that time will have been spent thinking about what may have been, especially for Indiana.

Before the NBA Finals started, Indiana would likely have accepted being at 2-2 and with every chance of winning a first NBA Championship.

However, the way we have got this scoreline will sting considering Indiana had been leading by 4 points with time ticking down in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 and with a 3-1 lead coming over the horizon. They scored just one point from that moment and some clutch basketball from the Oklahoma City Thunder, notably Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, helped them overcome the deficit and almost miraculously end up covering the spread.

They were helped by Bennedict Mathurin, who missed three Free Throws with the game in the balance at the end of the Fourth Quarter and then, inexplicably, made two fouls before the ball was inbounded to offer the Thunder a Free Throw AND possession.

Ultimately that was the clincher for the Thunder who did not play well in Game 4, but who will have taken a lot of belief out of the fact that they found a way to win.

It was perhaps surprising to see Indiana wilt in the final three minutes- they have been able to wear down so many opponents in those last few minutes, but this time it was the Pacers who struggled.

Both teams will benefit from having the days off to just recharge flagging batteries and that should see Game 5 improve in terms of the Offensive performances.

There is no doubt that the Thunder and Pacers are playing at a very high level Defensively, but there are some top playmakers on both sides of the court and those players will want to make a big impact in what feels like a pivotal game. With the Series at 2-2, this is a big opportunity for someone to step up and begin to write their name in NBA history and that pressure can either make, or break, a player.

All of that pressure feels like it is on the shoulders of SGA for the Thunder and Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers and both should log significant minutes as the Head Coaches perhaps begin to lose faith in some of the role players and bench to keep their team alive.

Out of the two teams, the Thunder looked much more tired in Game 3 and 4, but late buckets turned the tide in their favour.

Even then, it feels like they are being asked to lay a lot of points in this Game 5.

The number is not as high as the first two games hosted by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it is still significant and the Pacers have refused to go away easily in any game played.

Hosts favoured by 4.5 points have a strong record in the NBA Finals, but the Thunder are 1-1 against the spread in the spot this season.

They will feel the role players are going to be more comfortable at home and adjustments may be made to give Alex Caruso more playing time having been so important to the turnaround in Game 4. That makes Oklahoma City dangerous and the Pacers are going to have to mentally recover from what they will feel was a big chance blown last time out.

However, resiliency is what the Pacers have displayed all season and they can keep this one competitive with that rest helping the players recover. This is a team that has refused to go away all post-season and this may be too many points being given to them barring any more late game mental check outs as they produced in Game 4.

Thursday 19th June

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: This Pick comes out a little later than others during the NBA post-season and that is largely to get over the frustration of coming up 3 points short of back to back winners.

Instead, late turnovers or missed Free Throws have seen the selections go 0-2 and you do have to wonder how the Indiana Pacers can keep fighting through the adversity of giving games away. Instead of being ahead in the NBA Finals, like they perhaps should be, the Pacers return home for Game 6 looking to stave off elimination and the end of the season.

Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard have to be highlighted for late game blunders in Game 4 and Game 5 that have effectively cost the Pacers big opportunities. They were just 4 points behind in Game 4 and with every chance of rallying when Mathurin missed two Free Throws and then committed two fouls to allow the Thunder to pull away with possession of the ball.

In Game 5 the Pacers had rallied to within 2 points of the rocking Thunder with eight minutes left to play, but Nembhard was a big contributor to a run of four straight turnovers and that ultimately ended their hopes.

Those role players may take on added importance in Game 6 with Tyrese Haliburton struggling with a right calf issue- the top Indiana player has stated he will do all he can to suit up, but he was struggling in practice and it may be up to others to step up and try and take over this game and make sure the Pacers have one more shot at winning their maiden NBA Championship.

For Oklahoma City it will be a case of wanting more of the same from Game 5 having looked the stronger team for much of the night, but still struggling to put away the Pacers. This time they did not allow the fightback at the beginning of the Fourth Quarter to distract them and the Thunder were grateful for a huge night from Jalen Williams.

The key is to continue to create the turnovers and that may be something the Thunder can do if Tyrese Haliburton is unable to go for stretches of this game.

They have not been easy to trust as the road favourite, but the Thunder are 1-1 against the spread in the two games hosted by Indiana in the NBA Finals. Momentum is with them and the last seven teams that have had a chance to close out the Finals in Game 6 have produced a 6-1 record against the spread.

After what we have seen from the Pacers throughout the post-season, and even in the last couple of games, this feels like a lot of points to be laying with the road team. However, the uncertainty about Haliburton may just have shifted things in Oklahoma City's favour even if the Indiana role players are likely to be better at home.

Sunday 22nd June

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: Nine years have passed since the last Game 7 in the NBA Finals, but a poor display from the Oklahoma City Thunder has opened the door for another 'winner takes all' contest this Sunday.

They will be extremely disappointed with the entire performance- the role players struggled, turnovers absolutely crushed them and then a substandard display of shooting the three ball allowed the Indiana Pacers to surge clear and ultimately blow out the Western Conference Champions.

It has been a fun NBA Finals to watch, but it has been a huge frustration for the NBA Picks.

After blowing back to back covers by just three combined points, the Indiana Pacers had the perfect Game 6 performance.

Role players who had made critical mistakes in the Fourth Quarter in Game 4 and Game 5 played brilliantly in Game 6 and the momentum is now back with the Pacers.

However, it is a very tough Game 7 to call with the 'x factor' regarding turnovers almost impossible to call- the team that plays the cleanest game is likely going to win, but you can toss a coin and decide which of these two are most likely to do that in a hugely pressurised situation.

The Defensive schemes have been pretty good on both sides of the court and the adjustments made by the Indiana Pacers may just give them the edge, although the layers are well aware of the pressures on Game 7 with the total points line dropped by a huge amount between Game 6 and this one.

Picking a winner is not easy and you can make the case for both teams- the Oklahoma City Thunder have been a lot better at home than on the road, and they have controlled large parts of the three games they have hosted. Despite that, the Thunder have not really been able to put the Indiana Pacers away, although the spread is not nearly as high as the previous three games hosted by Oklahoma City.

It has been a very difficult post-season, the worst one since the Bubble of 2020, and so another disappointing late capitulation cannot be ruled out for the selection. The lean has to be with the Indiana Pacers, who have room for improvement from Game 6 even after the blowout win, and they have shown they can hang around.

Role players have to be careful with the ball and not kill the Indiana run with their turnovers as they did in Game 5 and it would not surprise anyone if the Thunder score a late bucket to win by 8 points, especially with the way things have bounced for the selections made.

However, the Indiana Pacers are a team that have fought hard throughout the Playoffs and one more big push should see them in a very competitive game and potentially pulling the outright upset.

The last three NBA Finals that have gone into a Game 7 have been won by the team that was victorious in Game 6, while teams that have won the previous game by double digits have produced a 8-4-1 record against the spread between Game 5 and Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

This all suggests Indiana can potentially win this one outright, but the recommendation is take the points and hope the late turnovers go in the right direction.

MY PICKS: 05/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

11/06 Indiana Pacers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

13/06 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

16/06 Indiana Pacers + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

19/06 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/06 Indiana Pacers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 2-4, - 2.24 Units (6 Unit Stakeds, - 37.33% Yield)

Conference Finals: 5-5, - 0.45 Units (10 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2025- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 13th May-Tuesday 20th May)

This has been a really difficult Second Round to negotiate, but it has not been a week in which there has been a lot of luck behind the selections either.

Whether it is some questionable late officiating, or teams blowing monster leads, it has been a Second Round where the NBA product has really been in the limelight and without necessarily interesting viewers as much as it should.

Living, or dying, by the three point shot has become such a feature of the sport, but there are times when it has produced truly ugly performances. On Sunday the Thunder and Nuggets combined to hit 2/33 three pointers taken in a horrible first half and you can see why ratings are down across the board when games are all played in very similar ways.

It also means relying on shooters to perform and that makes the NBA Picks that much more difficult to negotiate and it has been a real down period during this Playoff run.

Every Series is going to have a Game 5 to be played, so the Conference Finals are set to start next week, and we could see at least one upset through the Second Round after the Cleveland Cavaliers fell into a 1-3 hole.

The Oklahoma City Thunder may also be in some danger at 2-2 with the 2023 Champions Denver, although the Thunder have looked the better team and have got home advantage back following a split of two games hosted by the Nuggets.

NBA Playoffs 2025- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (May 13th-20th)

Tuesday 13th May

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 5 Pick: Just when you think you have an idea of where this Series is heading, the Cleveland Cavaliers came out and produced an embarrassing first half effort.

They had dominated the previous two games, albeit having to settle for a split, and the Cavaliers looked to have momentum with the injured trio of Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter and Evan Mobley back in the rotation.

None of those players covered themselves in glory and the task looks to have become even greater for the Cleveland Cavaliers after Donovan Mitchell was forced to miss the second half of Game 4. It has been Mitchell keeping the Number 1 Seed from completely unravelling, but without his Offensive firepower, Game 4 got away from the Cavaliers and they are now on the brink of elimination.

Returning home may give the team a boost, but the Cavaliers lost both games played here in the Series and all eyes are on Donovan Mitchell and whether he will be able to suit up.

The MRI will take place on Monday to determine his availability and it will be that much tougher for the Cavaliers if Donovan Mitchell is forced to sit out.

After a couple of poorer outings, the Indiana Pacers regained control of the Series by making the necessary adjustments and they continue to operated as a dangerous Offensive outfit. Spreading the ball around and exploiting the holes in the Defensive scheme helped the Pacers dominate from the opening tip on Sunday evening and they will have little fear of trying to win another road game.

Turnovers were critical in the win on Sunday and it may be asking too much for the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover this mark, especially if Donovan Mitchell is limited at best.

Favourites have not had the best time covering in Game 5 of the Second Round in recent years and those being asked to lay at least 5.5 points are just 11-17 against the spread in this situation.

Teams bouncing back from heavy losses have tended to play well in Game 5, but the Cleveland Cavaliers have been hit hard throughout this Series and they may have to battle right to the wire to simply win, with the cover looking that much tougher to achieve.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: Are there fatigue issues at play in this Series?

Playing in Denver is always tough, but back to back games hosted by the Nuggets and the early start for the Game 4 clash all factored into the performance of the two teams. There is a bit more rest time before Game 5, which is played back in Oklahoma City, and the top Seed in the Western Conference showed they can win 'clutch' games just as much as they can blow teams away.

This could be a pivotal moment for the Thunder who have to be very happy with how they are performing Defensively, especially with room for improvement on the Offensive side of the court. They have not found it easy against this Championship-hardened Denver team and aside from the Game 2 blowout, it has been an Offensive struggle for the Thunder.

They can thank their Defensive intensity for levelling up this Series and Oklahoma City have to be excited with the way they have controlled and contained Nikola Jokic. You are never going to shut him down, but the Thunder are forcing turnovers and not allowing Jokic to feel any kind of comfort on the court, which is leading to the Serb to push a little too hard.

Denver know they need Nikola Jokic at his best with the others around him contributing in fits and spots, but not showing the consistency that may be needed to win this Series.

The under has been the play in the last two games as the accumulation of basketball has built up and that may be the case again in Game 5.

You can never tell when the Oklahoma City Thunder are ready to produce an Offensive masterclass, but it has been a tough Series for the top Seed. Memories of 2024 are perhaps weighing them down a little bit too and both Defensive units will feel they can put enough stops on the board to give their team an opportunity of winning.

The total number has dipped significantly from Game 3, but it may not have gone far enough to avoid a third straight 'under' from coming through.

Wednesday 14th May

New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: No one can ever enjoy seeing an athlete go down with an injury and Jayson Tatum's MRI is going to determine how long the top Boston Celtics player is going to be missing. Not many expect him back for the Playoffs, never mind this Series, but the clearly suffering Tatum could be missing for several months if the injury is nearly as serious as it looked.

The Boston Celtics blew yet another big lead in the second half as they fell to 3-1 behind in this Second Round Series and the defending Champions return home looking to stave off elimination.

Being able to do that without Jayson Tatum is going to be extremely challenging, especially after Tatum was putting together the best performance in the Series in Game 4 and all of the pressure is on his team-mates. They did win eight of ten regular season games that were missed by Tatum and Boston also earned a win over Orlando in the post-season without him, but this is a much sterner test and the Celtics have to be much, much better Defensively if they are going to at least force a Game 6 back at Madison Square Garden.

That was the talk in the Boston locker room having failed to make any kind of stand in the second half of the Game 4 loss and allowing the New York Knicks to have their best Offensive performance of the Second Round by some distance. Losing Jayson Tatum will mean adjustments need to be made on this side of the court having given up too many Offensive Rebounds in Game 4 and the Boston Celtics have to use the energy of the home crowd to try and avoid becoming the latest defending Champion that has failed to reach the Conference Finals in the following season.

New York will feel they have the chance to close the Series as long as they still within touching distance of the Celtics going into the Fourth Quarter.

Clutch play has been the key for the Knicks throughout the Playoffs, but they will just have to be careful about thinking too far ahead or believing they have knocked the fight out of the Celtics, especially with Jayson Tatum expected to be sidelined.

Credit has to be given to the Knicks for fighting back as they have, but it does mean they have been at least 14 points behind in each of the four games played in the Second Round. They will accept that the Boston Celtics can get streaky, but the Knicks arrive here knowing that the favourite has struggled to cover the spread in Game 5 of the Second Round in recent years.

Hosts set as big favourites have had their issues, but the spread is down considerably from Game 1 and 2 after Tatum's injury. This has to be something that the Boston Celtics take inspiration from as they look to keep the Series alive and there remains a feeling that the Celtics will be in a position to have a big lead at some point in Game 5.

They have not been able to close the Knicks down, but you have to believe Boston will double down on the Defensive intensity in this one back at home. The Celtics have not allowed New York to score more than 100 points through the first three games of the Series (in regulation anyway) and the defending Champions may have one last big effort left in them.

Teams that have lost by at least 7 points in Game 4 have bounced back with an 18-6 record against the spread in the last twenty-four occasions that has happened and this Boston team is still good enough to force one more game at Madison Square Garden.

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 Pick: As soon as Steph Curry left Game 1 with a hamstring issue, the Series took a major shift in favour of the Minnesota Timberwolves. They may have lost the opening game, even with Curry playing just 13 minutes, but Minnesota have been the much better team in the last three games and now stand one win away from a return to the Western Conference Finals.

Draymond Green spoke about not wanting to rush Steph Curry back and instead for the Golden State Warriors to fight for as long as needed before their best player can return to the rotation.

There has been nothing wrong with the effort being put in by the Warriors, but without Curry, the Offensive side of the court has been a real struggle.

The final scoreboard has looked close in the last couple of games, but Minnesota Timberwolves had a 20 point lead in Game 4 moving into the Fourth Quarter and they were never in danger of dropping any of the last three games. Unlike Golden State, the team are looking healthy and in rhythm and the Timberwolves will be looking to close out another veteran, Championship team in five games having done the same to LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the First Round.

Being back at home to close the show gives Minnesota the edge and they have been much more comfortable than the Golden State Warriors on both sides of the court. Adjustments made in the second half in Game 4 saw the Timberwolves take complete control of the Series and it is very difficult to know what kind of changes Golden State Head Coach Steve Kerr can make now.

Minnesota just need to clean up some of the turnovers that were allowed in Game 4 and doing that should put them in a position to win this one in a similar manner as to how they crushed Golden State here in Game 2.

On that day, the Timberwolves showed off their depth and they will be keen to avoid having to go back out on the road and instead prepare for the Western Conference Finals. The other Second Round Series is heading for at least six games, so it is a good chance for Minnesota to earn some rest and they might have too much for the Warriors again.

You can never completely rule out the capabilities of a team with the experience that Golden State have, but it feels a tall task without Steph Curry and that has been evident through the last three games.

Thursday 15th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets Game 6 Pick: It has been a real battle of a Second Round Series with the Oklahoma City Thunder trying to show how much they have learnt from their exit in this Round of the Playoffs twelve months ago. With some of the top Eastern Conference teams struggling, a real opportunity has opened up for those in the Western Conference and the Thunder have long looked the team best equipped to win a Championship.

Proving that on the court is always the challenge and the Thunder are being given everything they can handle by the 2023 Champions Denver Nuggets, although the younger Oklahoma City team may feel they have broken the back of the Series with the pivotal Game 5 win.

That makes it back to back wins for the Thunder to take a 3-2 lead, but it is also the manner in which they were able to win Game 5 that feels very important. They were down double digits in the Third Quarter and as many as 8 points behind with less than eight minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter, while the Thunder then closed with a strong run to show they can come up trumps in the clutch for a second game in a row.

Oklahoma City have shown a real confidence in their depth and you do have to wonder how much the Denver Nuggets have left, even as they prepare to host Game 6 of the Series.

Having struggled at times in the Series, Nikola Jokic produced a massive game for the Nuggets with 44 points scored and 15 boards brought in, but the Thunder were happy to restrict those around the Serb. Jamal Murray played his part, but Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook were a combined 11/39 from the field with 27 points scored and all are going to need to be a lot better if the Nuggets are going to be able to force a Game 7 back in Oklahoma City.

The lack of rest and recovery between games makes that challenging and the two teams may not be as strong as they were Offensively in the last game. Even then, the total points came up short of the line set and we could see something similar in Game 6.

The last fourteen Game 6s played in the Second Round have finished 10-4 in favour of the 'under', while Denver may take some encouragement from the way they have been pushing the Thunder in the last three games. Stronger Defensive effort may be needed to slow down the three point efforts from the Number 1 Seed, which proved to be very important to the final outcome in Game 5, and we could see a bit more fatigue built up in this one.

It can only aid the chances of this Game 6 finishing below the total points line set and that is the play for a second straight time in this Series.

Friday 16th May

The Second Round of the Playoffs are coming to a close and it has been a frustrating Round for the NBA Picks.

It really hasn't helped that a meaningless bucket at the end of another Minnesota-Golden State game has turned a winning selection into a push or a losing selection. The numbers could have been considerably different with some late drama being avoided, but it is what it is and we have to focus on the two Series that are still being played with the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves waiting in the Conference Finals.

Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Game 6 Pick: It should not have come as a great surprise that the defending Champions Boston Celtics had a big response to falling 3-1 down in this Second Round Series and knowing that star player Jayson Tatum has a long recovery time in front of him.

Being at home would have helped the team rally together, but they now have to travel to Madison Square Garden for Game 6 on Friday evening and forcing a 'win or go home' game back at the TD Garden is going to be a huge challenge.

There was a lot to like from Game 5 with the likes of Jaylen Brown and Derrick White helping the team open quickly.

However, the spark really came from Luke Kornet from the bench who had 10 points and 9 Rebouns, while adding 7 Blocks that really got the crowd into the game. It is the kind of impact that players can produce in the Playoffs when playing at home, but the test for Kornet is going to be backing that up in a hostile environment.

There were other big contributors on the night as the Celtics completed their blowout, but now we will see how much the defending Champions really believe in their capabilities of going much further without Jayson Tatum.

New York will not be panicking with two more shots to close out the Series, although it does feel important to try and close out a Playoff Series at home for the first time this century. The Knicks had actually kept things very close in the first half and looked primed to strike, but Jalen Brunson produced five fouls in the Third Quarter and was gone in the Fourth Quarter, while the Knicks also had Karl-Anthony Towns on the bench for long stretches.

Players like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges struggled in Game 5, but they will feel much more comfortable in the home setting and that should help the Knicks. Keeping out of foul trouble is also very important for the Number 3 Seed who know they will be hosting the Indiana Pacers in a revenge Series in the Eastern Conference Finals if they can beat the Celtics.

Looking too far ahead is not something to you come to expect from the Coaching staff of the Knicks and this is a team that will want to try and avoid being down double digits again. They have shown their ability to fight back, but a Tatum-less Boston team should be more manageable for the New York Knicks to deal with now that some of the emotion has been used up.

Madison Square Garden can create some pressure on the home team when the expectations are high, as they will be on Friday, but it does feel like the Celtics role players will have a step back and that will afford the Knicks the opportunity to move through to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Sunday 18th May

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 Pick: The late regular season firing of Michael Malone raised eyebrows, but those involved in the decision making already felt justified when the Denver Nuggets came through a Game 7 success in the First Round of the Playoffs.

That does not mean the 2023 Champions would have been happy just to be here and they have played with a genuine belief that they could beat the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

Game 6 saw the Nuggets put together a solid performance having lost the last two games in the Second Round Series and they have forced this elimination game opportunity. With the way the Playoffs have been shaking out, the Nuggets may feel another Championship opportunity will open up if they can upset the odds on Sunday and the team will head back to Oklahoma City with a real confidence around them.

Aaron Gordon pulled up in the Fourth Quarter, but felt pretty confident that the hamstring issue will be dealt with and he will be ready to go. The Nuggets need everyone if they are going beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they will be playing with two days of rest, which is important for a veteran team, and that should also be enough time for Jamal Murray to come through the illness that almost ruled him out of Game 6 on Thursday.

There is plenty of pressure on the young Oklahoma City Thunder and they need a couple of players to come out of a relative slump as they bid to work their way into the Western Conference Finals. Another Second Round defeat in the post-season would be tough to swallow and that does build pressure around a team that missed the first close out opportunity that was available to them.

Adjustments can be made with two days between games, and the Thunder have shown they can come through tough moments to win important games. We may need to see all of that again if they are going to match expectations and surpass the Playoff run of 2024, but it may prove to be another game in which the Oklahoma City Thunder are pushed all the way.

One blowout has been recorded by the Thunder, but the rest of this Series has been incredibly competitive and that may not change.

The last twelve Second Round Series that have had a Game 7 has seen the Game 6 winner go 10-2 against the spread, while the favourite is just 4-8 against the spread. The scoring came thick and fast early in Game 6, which contributed to a relatively comfortable 'over', but Game 7s have tended to be tighter affairs and that makes the points being given to the Denver Nuggets all the more appealing.

Avoiding getting into a hole when the Thunder are rolling is key, but enough has been seen from the Nuggets to believe they can keep this competitive and have a late opportunity to perhaps even upset the odds outright.

MY PICKS: 13/05 Indiana Pacers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

13/05 Oklahoma City Thunder-Denver Nuggets Under 221 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

14/05 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

14/05 Minnesota Timberwolves - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

15/05 Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder Under 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

16/05 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

18/05 Denver Nuggets + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)