NBA Playoffs 2026- First Round Game 5-7 (Monday 27th April-Sunday 3rd May)

The First Round Series have provided plenty of drama and there are at least two Game 6s to be played in the Eastern Conference, while teams like the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets will be looking to push Series at least that far, even from 1-3 deficits to overcome.

Injuries are a crucial factor at this time of the season and we have seen a number of those really changing the narrative not only around the First Round Series to be played, but potentially much further into the Playoffs.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are reeling with both Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo expected to miss significant time and they will be looking to find a way past the Denver Nuggets. That likely means a Second Round Series against the San Antonio Spurs, who have just had Victor Wembanyama return from a concussion,

It might be the kind of situation that would suit the Spurs- if the Timberwolves can upset the Nuggets and move through, it is a more comfortable Series anyway, but a shorthanded Minnesota would be something San Antonio are really comfortable in facing before a potential Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City Thunder,

And if a healthier Los Angeles Lakers team moves into the Second Round, the Western Conference Bracket may actually shift in favour of the San Antonio Spurs.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are doing what they do best and look to be cruising through to the Second Round.

They have a big chance to finish the First Round Series in Game 5, while the likes of the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are all due to play a Game 6 at the minimum.

And that is if the Pistons are going to find a way to turn around a 1-2 deficit and make it through to the next Round.

Selections from the remainder of the First Round Series will be placed here as the Series come to a close, but those will begin on Tuesday after the Denver Nuggets were set as a big favourite to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves that have been ravaged by injury.

However, my concern is that the role players have a couple of big efforts in them to find a way to help the Timberwolves move through this Series.

If they are blown out, Minnesota might be set at a tempting line to cover as what is expected to be a home underdog in Game 6, but that is going to be answered following the Monday Game 4.

Tuesday 28th April

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The return of Joel Embiid will have given the Philadelphia 76ers a lift and there was nothing wrong with his performance in Game 4.

Unfortunately for Embiid and his team, the Boston Celtics have not changed the approach taken and that means bludgeoning the 76ers from the three point distance.

Over the last few seasons, it has become clear that the Celtics will be happy to live and die by the three pointer with the full belief in the shooters and making those plays often enough to win games and, ultimately, Series. That looks unlikely to change and this Game 5 really comes down to whether you believe the 76ers can either restrict the Boston Celtics from finding their rhythm or, more likely, whether Philadelphia can find enough shots to keep up.

Nothing we have seen from this Series suggests anything other than another comfortable win for the Boston Celtics and they can come through Game 5 with another big win and a cover of the spread set.

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Victor Wembanyama was back, but the San Antonio Spurs perhaps lost some focus in the first half of Game 4 as they looked to take control of this First Round Series.

There must have been words exchanged at half time because the Spurs came out with a lot more intensity in the second half and they crushed the Portland Trail Blazers at both ends of the court.

Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5s when it comes to the wins, but the cover rate is below 50%.

However, the Spurs are the second team liked in that spot and that is because they look like they are now settled into the post-season and the Portland Trail Blazers may struggle to be competitive enough at both ends of the court.

Respect has to be given to the Trail Blazers for the intensity, grit and determination taken into this season, the Play In Tournament and into this Series, but they are short of the required quality to match this deep Spurs team. Experience will give Portland plenty to take into the next season, but this one could come to a close as soon as Tuesday and the San Antonio Spurs may just end up pulling away as they have in the last couple of road wins to take control of this Series and for a place in the Western Conference Second Round.

Sunday 3rd May

Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: You do have to wonder if the Orlando Magic are going to regret going absolutely ice-cold from the field in Game 6 of this First Round Series just when it looked like they were going to eliminate the top Seed in the Eastern Conference. This side of the bracket could have become wide open if the Magic and Toronto Raptors are able to upset higher Seeds, but both have to win a Game 7 on the road.

A couple of minutes into the Third Quarter of Game 6 at home, the Orlando Magic led the Detroit Pistons by 24 points.

For whatever reason, Orlando began to struggle and the fightback from the Detroit Pistons must have overwhelmed them as a 42-10 run turned things around.

The Magic finished with just 79 points in Game 6 having scored 62 early into the Third Quarter and the key in this one is making the adjustments to slow down the flow if things begin to work against them again. They have already won on the road at the Detroit Pistons in this Series, while one of the defeats was only by a 7 point margin and that should give the Magic some confidence, even if they have to shake off what happened in the last game.

For the Number 1 Seed, the situation will feel much more manageable having overcome staring into the abyss in Game 6 and using the home fans is so important. The Pistons have some Playoff experience and they will certainly take heart in the fact that the favourites have tended to win Game 7 in the First Round of the Playoffs.

Franz Wagner's absence will favour the Pistons, who have won both games he has missed in the First Round Series, but Orlando have to believe they showed enough physicality to give the Detroit Pistons trouble.

In saying all that, the collapse in Game 6 is the one that can stick with a team for a long time and that does make it harder to trust the Orlando Magic with little time to recover mentally and physically.

All of the pressure is on the Detroit Pistons, even now, and that could help the road team who many will believe have missed their best chance to eliminate this top Seed.

The Pistons will likely find a way to win, but the Magic are being given a lot of points in this Game 7 and the underdog is 11-8-1 against the spread in recent games in this situation.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 7 Pick: The manner of the opening two defeats in this First Round Series suggested the higher Seeds were right in identifying the Toronto Raptors as one of the weaker teams that could be faced in the opening Playoff Series.

The Cleveland Cavaliers may certainly have believed that, but it is the Raptors who have won three of the next four games to force a Game 7.

They were without Brandon Ingram in Game 6, but that did not stop Toronto and they forced Overtime and ultimately outlasted Cleveland to hold serve and force this Game 7 on the road.

If they want to progress, the Raptors have to be the first in this Series to win a road game.

Confidence won't be an issue, even if Ingram is unable to suit up again, and the Toronto Raptors have to believe they have shown enough about how well they are matching up in the Series. They have fewer adjustments to make as we reach the decider in this Series and all of the pressure is on the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is something that the Raptors have to look to exploit.

After signing Donovan Mitchell to a big contract and then trading for James Harden, it is clear that the Cavaliers are all in on this season and losing in the First Round of the Playoffs will lead to massive questions to answer. Both players have had moments, but you can feel the pressure that is building on both and that is also leading to more pressure on the role players to step up.

Being at home should give the Cavaliers enough of an advantage to find a way through, but they are giving plenty of points to a team that have the momentum.

Like the other Game 7 being played on Sunday, the Cavaliers will know favourites have tended to win these deciders in First Round Series, but they are just 8-11-1 against the spread.

After the two opening 'blowouts', the Raptors have covered in the last four in a row and they can do that again in Game 7 even if they are ultimately eliminated.

MY PICKS: 28/04 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/04 San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Orlando Magic + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

03/05 Toronto Raptors + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull (Saturday 3rd May)

This is the second of three big cards that have been put together over the weekend with some of the very best names in Boxing involved in the different venues that are hosting.

On Saturday the eyes of the Boxing world shift from the unique event in Times Square, New York City to Riyadh where Canelo Alvarez headlines.

The fight will actually start very early in the morning on Sunday local time (reportedly around 6am) and that is to make sure that Canelo's fans back in Mexico and the United States are watching at a more regular viewing hour.

As has become the norm, a decent undercard has been put together and it should be another solid event before attention shifts to Las Vegas on Sunday and the card headlined by Naoya Inoue.

Big fights have reportedly been signed off by the pound for pound stars, but they have to make sure they avoid upsets this weekend before those fights can be made official.

Canelo Alvarez vs William Scull

Several months ago, Canelo Alvarez dropped the IBF World Title rather than be forced into a defence against William Scull as he searched for bigger paydays.

He continued to hold the other three World Titles in the Super Middleweight Division and continues to reign as King in this Division, even if one Belt has been dropped and the WBA have created yet another Interim World Champion in Caleb Plant.

That isn't something of concern for Canelo having beaten Plant previously and the Saudi backers have finally convinced him to head over to Riyadh for a bout.

They have also been keen to match Canelo Alvarez with Terence Crawford and the Mexican's resistance to having that bout has disappeared. One of the most open secrets in Boxing is that Canelo and Bud are set to meet in September as long as Alvarez can get through this Undisputed contest against William Scull.

Holding all of the Super Middleweight World Titles going into that contest with Bud only adds to what many are anticipating to be a Super Fight.

Canelo Alvarez is a considerable favourite to beat William Scull, a Cuban-born Boxer fighting out of Germany who remains unbeaten and who won the IBF World Title in what was a controversial Decision according to many observers.

The background has to be noted, but William Scull has not really passed the 'eye test' and that is an issue for him as he steps up several levels to face someone of the quality of Canelo Alvarez. There is almost nothing on the resume to suggest Scull is much more than an opponent that can help Canelo Alvarez impress before the potential announcement to face Terence Crawford is made.

A bigger question is whether Canelo Alvarez can end a six fight run and a four and a half year run since his last Stoppage win?

There is nothing wrong with the Canelo power in this weight class having put down each of his last four opponents and all before the bell for the Eighth Round has sounded. This has led to some negativity from opponents who would rather hear the final bell than take a risk to try and beat Canelo Alvarez, while the 34 year old Mexican with sixty-six professional fights under his belt has not really been too fussed about going through the gears to try and earn those Stoppages.

His output is not what it once was and that can make it tougher for those Stoppages to come, but William Scull has shown enough vulnerability to worry about him getting to the final bell without trying to mess up the contest.

The Canelo body work is expected to be key and William Scull is someone who might not be as slick as some of his compatriots, which should make it easier for the favourite to find a home for his big shots. There were moments in his last fight when William Scull was struggling and this not a fighter that has had a lot of experience fighting beyond the Eighth Round.

This one may not go much further than that and Canelo can make the difference in level count in this one, even if he has not pushed through the gears to make a statement in recent bouts. It has been partly down to the opponent being capable of getting through the tough moments, but Scull has shown he can be hurt and leaving his body open to be attacked is likely going to lead to a first Canelo Stoppage since 2021 and somewhere around the middle of the Twelve Rounds scheduled.

The undercard features a big Heavyweight contest between two fighters representing African nations who are now looking to move into the conversation with the elite in the Division.

Martin Bakole was certainly on a trajectory to the very top of the Division and him and his trainer were keen to point out how avoided the fighter had been. A big win over Jared Anderson pushed his credentials forward, and Bakole was set to fight in an eliminator to become the mandatory contender in the IBF Rankings.

All of that changed when Daniel Dubois fell ill just prior to his fight with Joseph Parker earlier in the year and Martin Bakole was happy to take two day notice, and a huge amount of cash, to fill in for the IBF World Champion.

This meant being pulled out of the IBF Rankings and Martin Bakole was Stopped int the Second Round and some of the aura around him has dissipated.

He can remind people of how much better he can be with a full training camp, although the weight was much higher than most anticipated- he weighs just 11 pounds less than when losing to Joseph Parker having only just left the couch and Martin Bakole is effectively a stone and a half heavier than when crushing Jared Anderson.

In saying that, he has fought at this weight pretty recently in the win over Carlos Takam and so Martin Bakole will struggle to make excuses if he was to lose. This may also mean Bakole is once again on the outside looking in and it is a pressurised spot for him.

Efe Ajagba once had a pretty good reputation as he was making his way up the World Rankings, but a loss to Frank Sanchez slowed things down and he was a fortunate Split Decision winner over Guido Vianello thirteen months ago. The Italian has been beaten much more effectively by Richard Torrez Jr since that performance and there are questions about Ajagba, which will be answered in this crossroads fight.

Both had plenty to say to one another in the last presser this week and it would be a surprise if it is hard to find the other in the ring.

Ultimately it feels like this will develop into something of a shoot out between the two fighters and the expectation is that Martin Bakole has the heavier hands. His Nigerian opponent has shown he can box through the Rounds, but keeping Bakole contained may be asking too much and it is the 'boogeyman' of the Division who can come through before the halfway mark of the contest is reached.

We know Martin Bakole is looking for some redemption after his last performance, but Jaime Munguia will be more desperate after a shocking loss to Bruno Surace.

It was supposed to be a homecoming event for Munguia in December and he put an early marker down when putting Bruno Surace down in the Second Round. Jaime Munguia had lost to Canelo Alvarez earlier in the year, but had lasted the distance and while fighting an unbeaten opponent, Bruno Surace's lack of Stoppages on his resume perhaps gave the Mexican too much belief.

A Second Round Knock Down was supposed to be lead to a pretty early night in the office, but Jaime Munguia was stunned in the Sixth when Stopped for the first time.

The rematch takes place in Riyadh and you do have to believe there is a lot of pressure on Munguia to right what went wrong in Tijuana.

Credit has to be given to Bruno Surace for taking the rematch, especially after such an upset that would have opened up plenty of doors of opportunity. The upset was truly stunning as there had been nothing on his resume to suggest the Frenchman was capable of that and making lightning strike twice may be asking too much.

This time you have to think Jaime Munguia will be a bit more respectful of what this opponent is capable of doing and that means being patient and not reckless. He has been a fighter who can carry power and Munguia may look to just go through the gears on his way to a return win, rather than looking to make such a statement to want to finish this fight in double-quick time.

Earning redemption will get Jaime Munguia back on track and ready to take on some big fights and he can power through in the second half of this contest.

The WBC World Cruiserweight Title is also being defended on the card when Badou Jack faces Norair Mikaeljan, but it feels strange that neither has been in the ring since November 2023.

That was when Mikaeljan won a vacant version of this Belt, but Badou Jack had won that same title months earlier and has remained the WBC Champion even after being inactive for over two years.

It is simply not a good look for the WBC and the hope is that the winner will be forced to face either one of the other two World Champions in the Division. Rumours suggest Gilberto Ramirez and Jai Opetaia are on a collision course for later in the year, but the winner of this one should have a mandatory to clear and fighters like Chris Billam-Smith might be able to step in and take on the Champion for this World Title.

Picking a winner is not easy- both are older fighters now and the inactivity of Jack and Mikaeljan makes it very difficult to know what to expect when they enter the ring. It may literally come down to who has enough in the tank to stay on their feet before the other fighter falls and the layers are also finding it difficult to split the two.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Martin Bakole to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.33 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Jaime Munguia to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 16-42, - 21.90 Units (71 Units Staked, - 30.85% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 3rd)

The last couple of days have been much more difficult for the Tennis Picks from the Madrid Masters, but I am hoping to get back to winning ways on Tuesday.

I have been able to update the season totals after the events in Estoril and Munich were concluded on Sunday, which you can see below.

There are plenty of matches scheduled to be played in Madrid on Tuesday, but the selections I've found can be read here. Some markets have yet to be put together with Second Round ATP matches set to be played on Tuesday as well as the conclusion of the First Round, and any additional Picks will be added here too.

Sara Sorribes Tormo v Daria Kasatkina: There are some very good looking matches on the WTA side of the Madrid Masters on Tuesday, but the layers seem to be on top of the prices for the most part.

One Third Round match where I feel they have gotten the prices the wrong way around is the one between the Sara Sorribes Tormo and Daria Kasatkina.

The home favourite crushed Naomi Osaka in the Second Round and Sara Sorribes Tormo has spoken about feeling burnout at the end of last season, but feeling much more renewed in 2022. She has not really played to the same level as 2021 so far this season, but the early performances on the clay courts are encouraging and the win over Naomi Osaka will have given her a huge boost.

With the fans behind her, Sara Sorribes Tormo should be able to back up that win in the Second Round, although she will know this is going to be a tough match against Daria Kasatkina. The latter has played well on the clay courts throughout her career, but the World Number 23 has never been a dominant player with a serve that can be vulnerable, which puts pressure on the return of serve.

Both of these players have struggled with the second serve, but Sara Sorribes Tormo has tended to get a much higher percentage of first serves into play. That could be to the outcome of this one, especially when you think the Spaniard has been the stronger return player in the limited sample of clay court matches in 2022.

Even a longer look at the last twelve months, Sara Sorribes Tormo has been the player with the superior second serve and return numbers on the clay courts and I think she can get the better of Daria Kasatkina as the slight underdog. These players have split two previous matches on the clay courts and I expect there to be plenty of break point chances in this one, but Sara Sorribes Tormo can use the energy of the crowd to take her through to the Quarter Final.

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 games v Hugo Dellien: There is only a small sample of clay court tennis played by Hubert Hurkacz in 2022 and this is only the second tournament has entered on the surface. However, the Polish player reached the Monte Carlo Masters Quarter Final before losing a tight match to Grigor Dimitrov and the next month could still be productive for Hurkacz who is perhaps looking forward to the grass court and hard court portions of the season to come.

In previous years, Hubert Hurkacz has not really enjoyed a lot of success on the clay and last season was a particularly difficult one for him. That makes the Monte Carlo performance important as he looks to find the confidence to put together strong runs on the surface and I think he will benefit from playing someone he has already beaten on the clay in 2022.

The First Round match against Hugo Dellien does look very winnable on paper, especially in the tough conditions in Madrid where you would expect the Hubert Hurkacz serve to make more of an impact than in other clay events.

Hugo Dellien has come through the Qualifiers in Madrid so the conditions are not going to surprise him, while has won plenty of clay court matches throughout the season. However, Hugo Dellien has seen the numbers take a serious drop whenever he has been faced with top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface this season.

In all matches on the clay, the Bolivian has held 78% of his service games played and broken in 39% of return games, but both numbers dip to 72% and 27% when Hugo Dellien has been up against top 100 Ranked opponents.

These two players met in Monte Carlo after Hugo Dellien had won a couple of Qualifiers, but he was not able to deal with the Hubert Hurkacz serve and the latter won 70% of points played behind that shot. With the conditions as they are in Madrid, I expect Hubert Hurkacz to be able to match that, while the top 20 Ranked player was also able to break serve in 27% of return games against the Dellien serve.

I expect Hubert Hurkacz to be able to frank the form in a tournament that should suit his tennis more than the events in Monte Carlo, Rome or Paris would. I would not be surprised if Hugo Dellien pushes him early, but eventually Hubert Hurkacz should be able to exert enough scoreboard pressure to pull clear for a good, solid First Round win.

MY PICKS: Sara Sorribes Tormo @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 9-8, - 0.26 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

Season 2022: - 9.36 Units (564 Units Staked, - 1.66% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (May 3-6)

The Premier League fixtures may be split across four days in the penultimate weekend of the 2018/19 season, but the Fantasy Deadline has been pushed forward to Friday evening for a third week in a row.

We are beginning to get some separation as far as the final positions are concerned and this could be the weekend when both the Premier League title race and the relegation battle come to a close. I would be surprised if the former was to happen, at least from a mathematical point of view, but the latter is more realistic with Cardiff City needing to beat Crystal Palace to stay alive going into the final weekend, and even then a Brighton win at Arsenal would be enough to confirm the bottom three places.

The top four could also be locked up if Arsenal and Manchester United fail to win and both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea earn the points they need, while Wolves can move into a very strong position to secure 7th place and a possible route into the Europa League.

It is all to play for in the Fantasy Football Leagues up and down the country as we hit GW37. Last week I found some solid differentials with the likes of Jamie Vardy scoring twice as well as Naby Keita and Youri Tielemens getting on the scoreboard in home wins for Liverpool and Leicester City.

Once again I will be searching out players owned by 15% or fewer of teams in the FPL Game that could make the difference in your individual Leagues. Next season I will have a slightly different look to the way I approach my Fantasy Football section of these threads, but for now you can read the section below where I am highlighting the players I have mentioned.


Everton v Burnley Pick: The final home game of the season for Everton should help produce one more big effort from a team who might not be wanting to see the season come to a close. It has to be said that Everton have been in fine form under Marco Silva in recent weeks and they are still chasing down a 7th place finish which may come with a European berth.

The side can put some pressure on their rivals for that place by winning on Friday night in front of the television cameras, but they can't underestimate Burnley who have been having a strong finish to the season.

Burnley have seemingly been very clinical in front of goal, while some last ditch defending has helped them preserve points they perhaps didn't completely deserve to pick up. Even in the defeat to Manchester City last Sunday, Burnley put bodies on the line and goal line clearances helped them to stay competitive.

It is possible they can play with more freedom with safety assured, but Burnley should be highly motivated to show they are stronger at the back having conceded five in the home loss to Everton earlier this season. They are facing Everton at a tough time, but Burnley can play their part here having scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 away games in the Premier League.

However I think Everton are playing with the confidence at home where they can edge out the win in this fixture. They have been creating plenty of chances in recent home games and the performances here against top six opponents suggests they can have too much for Burnley even if the latter are able to help play their part in the fixture.

Backing Everton to win a game where two or more goals are shared out is the selection from this live television fixture on Friday evening.

Fantasy Star: Gylfi Sigurdsson- everything good comes from the midfielder who is always likely to provide a goal or an assist.

Alternative: Chris Wood- Burnley will persist with a two man forward line and Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes can be very dangerous.


Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The first of the live televised Saturday games from the Premier League comes from the south coast as Bournemouth prepare to host a Tottenham Hotspur team who have proven to be far too good for them no matter where they have played one another.

Tottenham Hotspur hammered Bournemouth at Wembley Stadium earlier this season and this is just the latest of some one-sided wins for the London club.

However there is the additional factor of the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg in Amsterdam coming up this week which has to be given some weight. Tottenham Hotspur are still needing one more win to confirm their place in the top four, but they would likely settle for a point here which would mean a single point more would suffice and I am anticipating Mauricio Pochettino will make some changes to his first team to keep things fresh for Wednesday.

Those changes may still lead to a win, but Bournemouth should be ready to compete after fighting back for a 3-3 draw at Southampton last weekend. The home team have goals in the side and they should cause problems for Spurs despite being defensively vulnerable themselves.

The expected changes do make Tottenham Hotspur look a short price here and I was slightly tempted to recommend Bournemouth to upset them. Spurs have lost 7 of their last 8 away games and that includes the last 4 in a row and with the game against Ajax offering a distraction I do think they look short at odds on.

A draw wouldn't be a bad result for Tottenham Hotspur with Everton to come on the final day at home, but I think the recommendation has to be Bournemouth with the start on the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Callum Wilson- three goals and three assists in his last three games for Bournemouth who could be facing a distracted Tottenham Hotspur on Saturday lunchtime.

Alternative: Hueng-Min Son- must be chomping at the bit having been suspended for the Champions League Semi Final First Leg during the week. Scored twice against Bournemouth earlier this season.


West Ham United v Leicester City Pick: Neither team has anything to really play for with two games left of the Premier League season, but I think that could help these teams produce a fun game for the fans at the London Stadium.

Both Manuel Pellegrini and Ralph Hasenhuttl have been keen to see their teams getting on the front foot and creating chances and games between West Ham United and Southampton have tended to produce plenty of goalmouth action.

The teams have been creating enough chances to think they can be amongst the goals in this fixture and neither has shown a lot of defensive strength in recent games. West Ham United have conceded at least twice in 3 in a row at the London Stadium and Southampton have both scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 away from home.

In five of the last six seasons these two teams have played each other we have seen one of the fixtures produce at least four goals and that looks a big price in this one. I would be surprised if we see less than three goals and then it is the belief of the two managers to continue to play attacking football that may help produce at least one more goal on the day.

We would need to see a little more composure in front of goal from both teams, but the chances being created is encouraging and backing at least four goals to be shared out between the teams is the selection.

Fantasy Star: Michail Antonio- two goals in two games and should have chances against this Southampton defence to extend that.

Alternative: Shane Long- been in fine scoring form for someone who had a long run without scoring a goal. Got another last week, can add to that here.


Wolves v Fulham Pick: All credit has to be given to Scott Parker for guiding Fulham to three Premier League wins in a row and they are likely going to be results that mean he will be given the permanent job as manager as Fulham look to bounce back immediately from relegation.

It is going to be a tough season back in the Championship, but Fulham will be returning to that Division with some momentum picked up from wins in the last few weeks of the Premier League season.

Fortune has perhaps favoured Fulham who have been giving up chances and I think it will be difficult to contain a Wolves team looking like they are going to finish 7th in the Premier League. That is a big achievement for the club and potentially returning to European competition will only give the fans more to look forward to in the 2019/20 season, although Wolves would have to negotiate the tricky Europa League Qualifiers if they do get into that competition.

Wolves can take a big step to 7th place by winning this fixture and they have been very strong against Fulham at home. Recent performance at Molineux will only give Wolves more confidence and they create plenty of chances and usually score plenty of goals here.

Fulham's run of clean sheets have been surprising, especially with the underlying statistics suggesting they have been fortunate to earn those. I think some of that luck runs out this weekend and Wolves should have enough to break them down and earn a win on the day.

I will back Wolves to do that in a fixture featuring two or more goals with their recent home wins coming in games when Wolves have scored at least twice. Before the 0-1 win at Bournemouth, Fulham had conceded at least twice in 7 away games in a row at this level and were also beaten 2-0 here last season.

Fantasy Star: Diogo Jota- two goals in two games and Fulham's run of clean sheets have not come through strong defensive performances, but more down to the misfortune of attackers facing them.

Alternative: Matt Doherty- clean sheet potential and seems to be in and around the goals from his wing back position.


Cardiff City v Crystal Palace Pick: There isn't a lot of motivation that can be pointed out for Crystal Palace in this fixture and I do think that is the main reason that they are such an underdog in this one.

Cardiff City's motivation is much easier to understand as they have to win if they are going to realistically extend their stay in the Premier League. Even a draw is not good enough for the home team so they have to come forward and people looking at this game will make an obvious case for why they can win this game with that motivation behind them.

However I think it is a very difficult spot for The Bluebirds on Saturday as they are taking on a Crystal Palace team who have been much stronger away from home. That is down to the fact they can expose teams on the counter attack when they are committing men going forward and I do think that could be the situation in this live televised fixture.

At some stage Cardiff City will likely have to take risks against a Crystal Palace team who have been pretty sound defensively despite injuries in the backline. Those risks should see the visitors have some big gaps to exploit the longer this match goes and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection this week.

Neil Warnock's men have worked hard, but they have lost 8 of their last 10 Premier League games and that includes losing 4 of their last 5 at the Cardiff City Stadium. Crystal Palace being that much stronger away from home makes them the reasonable choice to back here with the draw returning the stake, especially as Crystal Palace have won 5 of their last 7 away from home in all competitions.

Fantasy Star: Aaron Wan-Bissaka- he has committed his future to Crystal Palace and has been a revelation from right back. Can get forward and cause problems, also every chance of a clean sheet.

Alternative: Wilfried Zaha- another who has been linked with a move away, I would expect Zaha to have some big gaps to exploit if Cardiff City are in a position where they need to chase this game.


Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: This game was originally scheduled to be played on Sunday, but has been moved forward because of Liverpool's Champions League Semi Final Second Leg against Barcelona which is played on Tuesday. The changes to the schedule has also shifted Manchester City's Premier League game to a Monday evening so Liverpool have the chance to play their penultimate League game before the defending Champions kick off as opposed to after as originally put together.

At this moment of time the only thing Liverpool can do is win their remaining two League games and hope Manchester City falter, but destiny is not in their own hands.

There is also some pressure on Jurgen Klopp to get his players to refocus after the 3-0 defeat to Barcelona in the Champions League First Leg. The scoreline might have been harsh on Liverpool who missed some glorious chances in the Nou Camp, but they can't let that result linger in their minds as they prepare for a difficult game in Newcastle United.

This is a ground on which Liverpool have struggled in recent years and the home fans would love to play spoiler as they look to persuade the board to back Rafael Benitez to remain as manager of Newcastle United. Rafael Benitez is a former Liverpool manager who is beloved at Anfield for helping secure a fifth European Cup, but he is not someone who will want his team to hand out favours to their visitors.

However it is a much tougher task for Newcastle United without Miguel Almiron and the likely absence of Ayoze Perez. That will remove big threats for The Magpies in this late Saturday evening kick off, but I expect the home team to be sound defensively for the most part and they will make life difficult for Liverpool.

Newcastle United have won 6 of their last 7 Premier League games at St James' Park which includes coming from behind to beat Manchester City. They are facing a Liverpool team who have scored plenty of away goals before the defeat in Barcelona, but I expect some tiredness to be on display after the tough fixture on a wide open pitch.

Will it be enough for Liverpool to drop points? I am not sure about that, but Newcastle United should be defensively sound enough to keep this competitive and backing the home team on the Asian Handicap is the call which will return a winner as long as they are not beaten by two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- had a huge miss which would have made it 3-1 at the Nou Camp on Wednesday, but might be the key to unlocking what is expected to be a solid Newcastle United defensive shape.

Alternative: Jordan Henderson- it might take an unusual source to break down Newcastle United and Henderson should take over from Naby Keita in the forward thinking midfield role.


Chelsea v Watford Pick: Playing Europa League Football on a Thursday and then having to compete in the Premier League has long proven to be a tricky test for clubs in England, but Chelsea have to find the right balance if they are going to achieve their goals for the season.

The main one was to return to the Champions League and Chelsea are very much in control of 4th place in the Premier League table with a 2 point lead over their nearest rivals and with two games left to play. At this moment you would say Chelsea will need to win both games if they are going to finish in the top four, and then they can concentrate on trying to win the Europa League as they go into their Semi Final Second Leg as favourites to see of Eintracht Frankfurt.

A big concern going into this Premier League fixture has to be the fact that Chelsea have not won any of their last 6 games following a Europa League game. They put in a lot of effort into the 1-1 draw in Germany on Thursday and they are playing a Watford team who have had a week to prepare for this fixture.

It is only Watford's relatively poor form which is leading me to doubt the visitors. The defeat last weekend at home to Wolves means Watford are almost certainly not going to be able to finish 7th in the Premier League table, while they have lost 2 of 4 Premier League games since earning their spot in the FA Cup Final.

Troy Deeney being back will be a boost for the squad as he is someone who will inspire a big performance from Watford and I do think they can make use of the fact that there will be some tired legs and minds in the Chelsea camp. I am not sure Watford have enough to earn a positive result here, but they have shown they can score goals against the top six clubs and backing both teams to score looks to be the play.

The last 5 between Chelsea and Watford have seen that outcome, while The Hornets have scored at least twice in their last 3 visits to Stamford Bridge. Keeping Chelsea out won't be easy with Watford's recent performances in mind, but backing both teams to score looks to be an angle that can produce a winner on the day.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- whenever Chelsea play it is the Belgian you think is going to be key. Didn't start on Thursday so should be ready to make an impact.

Alternative: Troy Deeney- has been missing through suspension and will be looking to make an impact on his own. Watford have scored plenty of goals in recent visits to Stamford Bridge.


Huddersfield Town v Manchester United Pick: Defeats to Everton and Manchester City without scoring a goal and then a mistake from David De Gea in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea has left Manchester United in a very difficult position to make the top four of the Premier League and return to the Champions League.

Only 4th place in realistic for Manchester United, but they are going to need to win both remaining League games by wide margins and hope Chelsea are beaten heavily in at least one of their remaining two League games. The side will also need Arsenal to fail to win both of their remaining two games or at least lose one of those and I think the majority of Manchester United fans will accept it is back to Europa League Football next season.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer won't want his team to go into the summer with a negative mindset despite the rumours of the changes that are going to be made in the squad. The players have seemingly gone back to the same mentality as when they were failing to perform under Jose Mourinho, but Manchester United could not really ask for a better opponent than a Huddersfield Town missing influential Aaron Mooy and who have been struggling under Jan Siewert.

Huddersfield Town have lost 8 in a row in the Premier League and that includes losing their last 3 at the John Smith's Stadium. The Terriers have conceded at least twice in each of those home defeats and only a late goal against Watford prevented Huddersfield Town from being beaten by two or more goal margins in each of those 3 defeats too.

In 3 of the last 4 Premier League games Huddersfield Town have conceded at least four times and I think even an underperforming Manchester United team can win here. Both Romelu Lukaku and Marcus Rashford could be missing, but Manchester United still have some very strong attacking players who should be able to produce a decent level against an opponent like the one in front of them.

Last season Manchester United did earn revenge over Huddersfield Town by beating them 0-2 in the FA Cup after a 2-1 defeat in the Premier League. I expect a scoreline more in line with the FA Cup tie considering the form of Huddersfield Town.

It is not easy to trust Manchester United at the moment, especially off 5 straight away defeats in all competitions, but they have played with more effort in the last two matches. That should be enough to see off Huddersfield Town who have been conceding goals for fun and I will look for Manchester United to win by a couple of goals at least on the day.

Fantasy Star: Marcus Rashford- is suffering with an injury, but has been training so would be a surprise if he didn't start. With Romelu Lukaku injured, Rashford could be the key to breaking down this Huddersfield Town team.

Alternative: Paul Pogba- on penalty duties and facing an overmatched opponent.


Arsenal v Brighton Pick: It took a lot of effort and determination for Arsenal to come from behind and beat Valencia 3-1 in the Europa League Semi Final First Leg on Thursday, but Unai Emery knows his team can't give up their chase of a top four finish in the Premier League just yet.

Unlike Chelsea in recent weeks, Arsenal have generally played pretty well coming out of their Europa League ties even if they were beaten in that situation 2-3 by Crystal Palace here last month. Prior to that, Arsenal had won 4 straight Premier League games following a Europa League game and that includes 3 wins in a row at the Emirates Stadium where they have been scoring plenty of goals.

The win over Valencia made it 10 straight home games in which Arsenal have scored at least twice, although Brighton are going to offer some resistance if their recent performances are anything to go by. Brighton earned a draw at Wolves and were undone by a late Christian Eriksen goal when going down to a 1-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur, although I do wonder if the players will mentally relax having moved 4 points clear of Brighton last weekend.

It will certainly be a possibility if Cardiff City have not beaten Crystal Palace on Saturday afternoon in what would effectively be a result that keeps Brighton in the Premier League for another season. If that has happened there is every chance that the Brighton players just relax a little bit which could give Arsenal the edge to win this fixture with a little more ease than the likes of Wolves and Tottenham Hotspur have found in recent games.

Arsenal were pretty comfortable winners over Brighton here last season and they have been strong at home with the Crystal Palace result being an exception to the rule. Defensively they have been vulnerable to set pieces and so Brighton may have their chances, but I think Arsenal will have a bit too much for them and keep their hopes of a top four finish alive going into the final day next Sunday.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- rotation is a concern, but the Frenchman might get another start to add to the two goals he scored against Valencia.

Alternative: Henrikh Mkhitaryan- has not really thrived at Arsenal like he would have wanted, but has the skills to perhaps be a key to unlocking what is likely to be two banks of four in front of Mat Ryan.


Manchester City v Leicester City Pick: With Liverpool kicking off forty-eight hours before Manchester City are due to play this weekend, there could be more tension on the defending Champions as they look to retain the top flight English title for the first time in their history. A Liverpool win would mean Manchester City are needing to match the results of their title rivals to stay ahead of them, but any other result could see Manchester City effectively win the title on Monday evening.

It is hard to know what kind of atmosphere we are going to see at the Etihad Stadium until after the Liverpool match at St James' Park has come to a conclusion- a win for Liverpool could mean there is some tension here as there was when Manchester City beat Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 a couple of weeks ago, but any other result and I think the fans and the players could be bouncing into the fixture.

Either way I don't think it is too difficult to know how Brendan Rodgers is going to ask his Leicester City team to approach things. During his time with Celtic Rodgers showed an ambition to get this teams to attack even when they were playing in Champions League and Europa League fixtures against superior teams and I think the former Liverpool manager is going to ask his Leicester City players to do the same here.

Brendan Rodgers would have noted the success Tottenham Hotspur had on the counter attack in both the Premier League and Champions League visits to the Etihad Stadium a couple of weeks ago. His Leicester City players are very much of the mould to play that style and look to expose any holes left behind by Manchester City and this is a team who have regularly found a way to score goals against the defending Champions.

Both games this season have seen both teams hitting the net, while that has also been the case in 7 of the last 8 between them overall. The last 3 at the Etihad Stadium has seen the same happen including in both games managed by Pep Guardiola, although in each of those Manchester City have had enough to see off Leicester City.

I think that could be the case again here despite the improved defensive performances Manchester City have put together. This Leicester City will look to get after their hosts and they have scored against each of the other members of the top six away from home this season.

Ultimately I still think Manchester City will do enough to win the game and backing them to win a fixture in which both teams score is the recommendation.

Fantasy Star: Sergio Aguero- scored the winner at Turf Moor and should have spaces to get into behind the Leicester City defence.

Alternative: Jamie Vardy- counter attack will be the key for Leicester City and I do think they can cause some problems led by Vardy.

Fantasy Football

I am looking for those players that are not owned in the large majority of teams so won't be recommending anyone who has more than a 15% ownership.

With that in mind this is not a section in which I will be picking the likes of Sergio Aguero, Mohamed Salah and Eden Hazard, but instead those players who I feel can have a big performance in GW37 and perhaps make the difference in your individual teams.

Goalkeeper 5 Million and Above

If you already own one of these high priced Goalkeepers I would hold onto them. There are better options at the lower values than here and that should mean a chance to use your funds elsewhere.

Goalkeeper 4.9 Million and Below

Bernd Leno (Arsenal- 4.9 Million, Owned by 4%): He is the League Goalkeeper for Arsenal who have kept four clean sheets in their last seven here. Facing a Brighton team who have been lacking goals.

Vicente Guaita (Crystal Palace- 4.3 Million, Owned by 2.3%): Three clean sheets in the last six Premier League games for Crystal Palace. Will be under pressure from Cardiff City chasing a win, but Crystal Palace are capable of another clean sheet if they defend the set pieces effectively.

Defender 5.1 Million and Above

Patrick van Aanholt (Crystal Palace- 5.5 Million, Owned by 5.6%): An attacking full back who could help spring any counter attacks that develop for Crystal Palace.

Shkodran Mustafi (Arsenal- 5.4 Million, Owned by 1.4%): Could be a potential rotation concern, but the injury to Laurent Koscielny reduces those worries. Every chance of another clean sheet at the Emirates Stadium this weekend.

Lucas Digne (Everton- 5.4 Million, Owned by 9.6%): Everton have four clean sheets in a row and Lucas Digne is a potential assist maker as well as a danger from set pieces.

Defender 5 Million and Below

Luke Shaw (Manchester United- 5 Million, Owned by 6.8%): Manchester United have been poor at both ends of the field, but you can't ask for much more than facing Huddersfield Town to change that.

Willy Boly (Wolves- 4.7 Million, Owned by 6.4%): A home game with Fulham and a threat from set pieces.

Midfielder 7.1 Million and Above

Leroy Sane (Manchester City- 9.3 Million, Owned by 7.2%): It is a risk considering he has not been a starter, but I think he will be involved and he is facing a Leicester City team that will look to come forward. That could mean spaces for the winger to exploit.

Mesut Ozil (Arsenal- 7.9 Million, Owned by 2.5%): Has tended to be picked for home games of late and can be the inspiration for any victory Arsenal have over Brighton.

Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton- 7.4 Million, Owned by 8.1%): Has been huge for Everton in recent weeks, especially at home, and can keep that going against Burnley on Friday evening.

Midfielder 7 Million and Below

Michail Antonio (West Ham United- 6.8 Million, Owned by 1.1%): Two goals in two games and facing a Southampton defence that has been anything but watertight.

Diogo Jota (Wolves- 6.3 Million, Owned by 9.4%): Should have chances against a Fulham team who have been giving up plenty without being punished. Diogo Jota has scored two in two for Wolves too.

Nathan Redmond (Southampton- 5.4 Million, Owned by 5%): 'Only' earned an assist in the 3-3 draw with Bournemouth, but Nathan Redmond continues to get into strong positions for Southampton.

Forward 6.4 Million and Above

Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal- 9.4 Million, Owned by 11.5%): A rotation risk, but the Frenchman scored twice on Thursday and may be asked to add to his tally before being given some rest.

Gonzalo Higuain (Chelsea- 9 Million, Owned by 1.5%): Should be starting after Olivier Giroud got the call on Thursday. Scored all three of his Chelsea goals at Stamford Bridge, including in the last League game against Burnley.

Forward 6.3 Million and Below

Ayoze Perez (Newcastle United- 6.2 Million, Owned by 2.4%): Scored in each of his last three Newcastle United starts. Looks like he will be fit to play against a Liverpool team that got the run around by Barcelona during the week.

Shane Long (Southampton- 4.7 Million, Owned by 3.8%): Been scoring goals for fun and should have more chances against West Ham United.

Vincent Jansson (Tottenham Hotspur- 4.5 Million, Owned by 0.1%): A real risky call considering he has played 26 minutes in the last couple of years for Spurs. However he may get the chance to lead the line between Champions League Semi Final ties with Ajax and facing a Bournemouth team who have conceded a shedload to Tottenham Hotspur in the last three years.

MY PICKS: Everton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred
Bournemouth + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
West Ham United-Leicester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.60 Betfair Sportsbook
Wolves to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Newcastle United + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365
Chelsea-Watford Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Betway
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.40 Betway

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (May 2-4)

The Champions League and Europa League Semi Final ties begin this week and I have my picks below from the four games to come over the next three days.


Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Pick: Games between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid have been highly competitive ever since the latter have made some significant improvements under Diego Simeone. Atletico Madrid have won the League title and reached two Champions League Finals under Simeone in recent years, but they have yet to get the better of Real Madrid in this competition.

1 defeat in 6 visits to Real Madrid would impress the biggest of European clubs and it will give Atletico Madrid the confidence to believe they can set themselves up for a huge Second Leg in front of their own fans.

However it is Real Madrid who have beaten Atletico Madrid in each of the last three seasons in the Champions League with two of those victories coming in the Champions League Final. There were chances for Atletico Madrid to win all four ties against Real Madrid in that time, but they have lost half of the games against Real Madrid including a 1-0 loss here in the 2015 Quarter Final.

It would be a huge surprise if this First Leg does not go the way that most of us will imagine- that is Atletico Madrid making things really difficult for Real Madrid and hoping to catch them on the counter while keeping the tie alive for the Second Leg. The players are very much aware of what their individual job is here and it is perhaps no surprise that the last 3 here between these teams have ended with fewer than three goals shared out.

I was very close to picking Atletico Madrid to avoid a loss here, and at odds against that was tempting. However I think that is almost certainly mutually exclusive with the chance of seeing less than three goals shared out and in that case I do have the 1-0 or 2-0 Real Madrid wins on my side.

6 of the last 7 overall between these teams have ended with less than three goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome of this First Leg.


Monaco v Juventus Pick: Both Monaco and Juventus have produced some top performances in the Champions League this season, but it still feels like a tie between the experience of the Juventus backline and the youth and pace Monaco bring in the final third.

Over the two Legs I am expecting Juventus might be able to 'vet' Monaco with their experience vital, but Monaco are playing with a freedom that is hard to ignore. They get after teams early and force them onto the back foot and that is going to be important for Monaco in this First Leg as they bid to have some sort of lead to take to Turin next week.

Having a lead is important for Monaco who have been a little more inconsistent away from home. They have won 13 in a row here in all competitions and Monaco have won 6 of their 7 home Champions League games while scoring at least twice in 5 of those.

Tiredness has been a factor in the second half of their games in this competition though and that has seen the weak defence exposed. I certainly think Juventus will show more attacking intent than Italian sides tend to in away European ties at this level, and I do think Juventus can create chances either on the break or when Monaco just slow down.

On the other hand, I do believe this Monaco team are being under-rated as the home underdog in another Champions League game. That happened against Borussia Dortmund and it was still a game Monaco were able to win with some comfort and I imagine Monaco will have their backers.

However I think the chance of seeing at least three goals looks under-rated because I do believe Monaco will create chances. As well as Juventus did to keep two clean sheets against Barcelona, most who saw that game will recognise the amount of clear cut opportunities the Catalan club had, and Monaco have shown they can be clinical in front of goal.

At some stage I would expect Juventus to get forward too and I am going to take the option of at least three goals to be shared out here in the first of what could be two cracking Semi Final Legs.


Ajax v Lyon Pick: This is a really interesting looking Semi Final with Lyon perhaps being a club that has underachieved in all competitions outside of the Europa League and now facing a well rested Ajax team who have to overcome the disappointment of likely losing the Dutch title in the final weeks of the season.

Both will see the Europa League as a truly winnable competition that will make it a successful season and I am anticipating two tight ties over the next eight days.

Lyon have been the second favourite to win the Europa League behind Manchester United almost as soon as they dropped out of the Champions League. They were looking pretty good a few weeks ago, but the last couple of months have been much more difficult for them and losing games at Roma and Besiktas shows some vulnerabilities.

Those two teams are better than Ajax, but the latter have won 20 out of 21 home games in all competitions including all 6 in the Europa League. The win over Schalke was particularly impressive and having two weeks of rest since the 1-0 loss at PSV Eindhoven will help the home team.

This has all the makings of a close tie, but I am favouring Ajax in the First Leg considering they have been stronger at home and will be pushing for a lead. Add in the fact Lyon have lost 6 of their last 12 away games in all competitions and have lost back to back away Europa League games and you can see why I want to back the Dutch side in this one.

I still have enough respect for Lyon to look to favour Ajax on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stakes if the First Leg does end in a draw. That is because Ajax have had a couple of tough losses and might have lost a bit of confidence, but they have been so good at the Amsterdam Arena that I do expect them to have some sort of lead to take to France next week.


Celta Vigo v Manchester United Pick: All four teams left in the Europa League should be fully focused on trying to win the competition and even favourites Manchester United look vulnerable. The injury issues in defensive positions leaves Manchester United in a tough spot as they try to get back into the Champions League and those issues are ones that Celta Vigo will feel they can fully exploit.

Playing attacking football at home will make Celta Vigo dangerous and I wouldn't be fooled by the British media writing them off nor their inconsistent domestic form. Recent results in Spain are based on a team making wholesale changes to keep the key figures ready for the Europa League, while Celta Vigo have beaten Barcelona 4-3 and drawn with Real Madrid 2-2 here.

The goals they can score have been evident in their wins over Krasnodar and Genk in the last two Rounds and I would think Celta Vigo know their best chance to win this Semi Final is putting Manchester United under pressure at home.

There are some tired legs in the Manchester United line up, and defensively they could have some real problems in the First Leg. However they have had three days rest this time and the younger players should give them the pace in the forward areas to cause problems of their own.

Jose Mourinho may be a 'safety first' kind of manager in these Knock Out ties in European competition and has experience of guiding teams to positive results away from home. I have a feeling he may have to be a little more proactive in this one with the defenders he will likely be missing for the fixture and that might see a very entertaining First Leg produced.

Both teams can play their part in that and the chance of seeing at least three goals seems to be underestimated by the layers in this one. The last 2 here in the Europa League have hit that number and Celta Vigo will likely offer enough going forward to challenge Manchester United, but also could be vulnerable to the counter attack.

The 1-1 is the one result that potentially scuppers the pick in my opinion, but I think one of the teams will have a lead in the Second Leg after a decent game is produced.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Monaco-Juventus Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ajax - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celta Vigo-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (May 2-4)

The Championship regular season comes to a close this weekend and the Premier League top four places look almost settled as the final month of the season comes into play.

It is an important month with relegation from the top flight decided, especially as Leicester City and Hull City have given themselves a huge shot in the arm to avoid the drop. The FA Cup Final will be played later in the month too as Aston Villa look to go into that game as a Premier League club and not one that has just been relegated, while the Finals in the Champions League and Europa League will also be set.

With games running out, every weekend has become a big one for the teams involved at the top and bottom of the Premier League.


Leicester City v Newcastle United Pick: John Carver is going to be meeting with some angry fans in the near future, but his meeting with Mike Ashley later this month is probably a lot bigger as his future as manager of Newcastle United is decided. It would be something special if Carver is able to survive as the permanent manager considering Newcastle United have lost 7 League games in a row and the players have the appearance of having 'downed tools' in some of their recent performances.

The improvement of Hull City, Aston Villa and Leicester City has dragged Newcastle United back into the relegation battle that has developed below them and another defeat on Saturday will certainly increase the tension at St James' Park. I would still be surprised if Newcastle United were to be relegated having a 5 point lead over Sunderland in the bottom three and just four games left to play, but a defeat coupled with a win for Sunderland over Southampton later in the day will certainly make it a nervy final month of the campaign.

It is hard to see how Newcastle United can turn around the form they have been displaying but John Carver will say they have mainly come against better teams, although the defeat at Sunderland is another painful blow to the temporary manager.

And they are in for a really tough test at the King Power Stadium as Leicester City only saw their 4 game winning run come to an end at the hands of Chelsea. Aside from a very bizarre post-match conference that Nigel Pearson was involved in, Leicester City have been winning the games they have needed to get out of the bottom three and give themselves every chance to avoid relegation back to the Championship.

The Foxes had beaten West Ham United and Swansea at home in recent games before the defeat to Chelsea and you have to be an 'ostrich with your head in the sand' if you haven't seen the improvement Leicester City have displayed. They look a team with more belief than Newcastle United and more heart in the performances and I do think they will beat the latter and extend their losing run to 8 games in a row.


Aston Villa v Everton Pick: Tim Sherwood was disgusted that the post-game interviewer dared to question him about relegation after Aston Villa had come very close to picking up a result at the Etihad Stadium last weekend. His side had fought back from 2-0 down to almost earn the draw, but a late decision went against Aston Villa and they were on the wrong side of a 3-2 defeat.

Sherwood was obviously impressed with the performance and the battling display Aston Villa produced, but wins for Hull City and Leicester City has really put Aston Villa back under pressure in the fight to avoid the drop. 

Only 2 points separates Aston Villa and Sunderland in the bottom three so it the question asked to Sherwood wasn't that out of order, although those performances in the last few weeks will have given the manager confidence his side can get remain out of trouble.

The consistency is still lacking in the Aston Villa game though and that is where some of the fans will remain concerned that they can't escape the bottom three as the teams below them continue to win. A few weeks ago, Aston Villa might have looked at this game as a winnable one, but Everton have improved greatly and come into Villa Park off the back of an impressive 3-0 win over Manchester United last weekend.

That win means Everton are unbeaten in their last 6 games in the Premier League and they have won 5 of those games. It has been more of struggle for Everton when they have played away from home, but they should have some room to employ the counter-attack that was so effective against Manchester United last weekend, especially as Aston Villa have been feeling more confident when going forward.

I do think Aston Villa will have their success in this game too though as they have been playing with a lot of confidence going forward under Tim Sherwood. The manager deserves a lot of credit for that, but defensively they remain vulnerable and I can see both teams scoring in this one.

Neither side should be sitting back feeling comfortable with the draw either and I am expecting goals in this game.

These teams have a habit of being involved in some high-scoring games and I am expecting both to score. I don't expect either to take a backward step with the win available and I can see this game ending with at least three goals.


Manchester United v West Brom Pick: Louis Van Gaal questioned the attitude of the Manchester United players following their 3-0 defeat at Everton last weekend and the away form remains sketchy to say the least. In all honest, Manchester United could have considered themselves unfortunate to be one goal down at half time last weekend, let alone two, although the second half display was far below the standards that this team have set over the last six weeks.

The danger for Manchester United was seeing the teams below them in the race for the Champions League places picking up points as they slumped to losses at Chelsea and Everton, but that has not been the case. Southampton, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool have dropped points themselves and Manchester United should not be feeling the pressure of losing a top four spot going into this weekend.

They also have the benefit of returning to Old Trafford where the form has remained very strong for the majority of this season, while the visit of West Brom may have come at the right time.

After slipping back towards the bottom three, West Brom have earned four points from their last couple of games and gone back to Tony Pulis basics by earning clean sheets in both wins. Those four points should be enough for West Brom to maintain their Premier League status for another season and they might come to Manchester United with a nothing to lose attitude.

However, the players were guilty of taking their eye off the prize just a couple of weeks ago when it looked like West Brom would survive in the Premier League and that will be the fear again on Saturday. Pulis will set his side up to be difficult to beat in the late Saturday kick off, but Manchester United have scored plenty of goals at Old Trafford and it is hard to see how West Brom will keep tabs on them.

The potential absence of Wayne Rooney is a blow, but that does mean Van Gaal doesn’t have to change his system either with Robin Van Persie back in contention. That familiarity should help Manchester United bounce back from a couple of disappointing losses and get back to winning ways at Old Trafford while taking another big step towards the Champions League for next season.

There have been plenty of goals scored by Manchester United at home and I think they will be too strong for a West Brom team that might breath a sigh of relief after a couple of positive weeks.

Relegation isn’t completely averted, but West Brom will feel comfortable in the position they are in and that should give Manchester United the onus to attack as Tony Pulis sets his team up to defend deep. 

I expect Manchester United to break them down and win this by a couple of goals. Even though West Brom won at Old Trafford last season, I still think that is a big ask for them at this moment and Manchester United looking to bounce back from two losses in a row.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: It has really bothered Jose Mourinho that his side were described as 'boring' by the Arsenal fans last weekend, while some of the pundits have also made it clear that they don't feel Chelsea are the most attractive side to watch. That might be the case, but Chelsea remain the best team in England and a win on Sunday will mean they are once again the Champions of the Premier League.

A come from behind win over Leicester City has put Chelsea on the brink of winning the title and another win on Sunday against Crystal Palace will be enough to secure another Premier League title. Their form at Stamford Bridge has played a huge part in getting Chelsea into this position in the Premier League and they might be facing Crystal Palace at the right time as Alan Pardew's men have just struggled of late.

Back to back home losses to West Brom and Hull City have been a bitter blow to Crystal Palace who had looked like they could finish in the top half of the Premier League table. There is still a real chance that Palace can end in those positions, but they might be up against the momentum on Sunday which can be tough to reverse.

There is pace in the forward lines for Crystal Palace and they have used that to their advantage away from home where the side have won 7 of their last 8 games in all competitions and only lost 1 of 10. However, I do wonder if they have called time on this season which has seen them earn another year in the Premier League, and now they face a team that can win the title this weekend.

That motivation can be tough to contain, although I remain concerned that Chelsea have failed to win by more than a solitary goal since the early part of January. However, everything seems to be going Chelsea's way at the moment and Jose Mourinho won't want to wait around to confirm their place as Champions of England and Crystal Palace may be in for a hard time on Sunday.

While they are not everyone's cup of tea, Chelsea have to be respected and I think they can win the Premier League title in style. Crystal Palace have just dropped their form at the wrong time of the season and I like Chelsea to win by a couple of goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: Any chances that Tottenham Hotspur have left in making the top four in the Premier League will be wiped out if they fail to beat Manchester City at White Hart Lane on Sunday. The 2-2 draw at Southampton last weekend did nothing for either of those sides and even a victory in the live game on Sunday might not be anything but a consolation for the team and a 'what might have been' for the fans.

When Spurs beat Arsenal 2-1 at White Hart Lane in a come from behind victory back in February, it looked like Mauricio Pochettino's men would be challenging for a Champions League spot going into the final month of the season. 

That would have been the minimum expectation for the team, but Tottenham Hotspur have been inconsistent and the home loss to Aston Villa two weeks ago might have dented all serious aspirations of playing in the Champions League next season.

Defeats at Liverpool and Manchester United didn't help Tottenham Hotspur to pick up the momentum they needed after the North London derby victory and 7 points to make up looks a huge task with just 12 left to play for. 

Tottenham Hotspur have at least been productive at White Hart Lane, but this is a team that concedes far too many goals and that is a problem against Manchester City who might just have turned a corner when it comes to their form.

Of course I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to cause Manchester City plenty of problems in this game too at home, especially as Manchester City have struggled on their travels of late.

Back to back home wins over West Ham United and Aston Villa, despite another wobble in the latter game, has eased the tension around Manchester City that they might fall out of the Champions League places. That would have been embarrassing considering Manchester City won the Premier League title last season and would have almost certainly cost Manuel Pellegrini his job despite the Chilean still sitting on a very warm seat.

Now they have to try and snap a five game losing run on the road which includes four away losses in a row including the heavy 4-2 defeat at Old Trafford in the Manchester derby. Manchester City have won 2 of their last 3 visits to White Hart Lane, but goals have not been in short supply in any of those games and that might be the case this weekend.

Prior to the 0-1 loss to Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur had scored at least twice in 6 straight home games in the Premier League, but they had also conceded at least twice in 4 of those games including the last three in a row.

The last three games at White Hart Lane between these teams have also seen at least four goals shared and Manchester City have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League.

Goals look like they could be on the cards in this one and backing at least four to be shared out by these teams could be the play in the second live game of Sunday afternoon.


Hull City v Arsenal Pick: A couple of weeks ago it looked like Hull City were in big danger of relegation, although they could be grateful that their relegation rivals were all struggling. However, the likes of Leicester City have begun to pick up wins and that put the pressure on Hull City who responded by beating Crystal Palace and Liverpool in the space of four days without conceding a goal.

That has given Hull City a real sense of being able to earn their survival in the Premier League with five games to go, but the big games keep coming. This week Arsenal visit the KC Stadium where Hull City have won 3 of their last 5 League games and only lost once at the hands of Champions elect Chelsea.

A 1-0 win over Liverpool here during the week has given Hull City a nice buffer to the bottom three in the Premier League, but there is still some work to be done on Monday Night Football. They will be given a severe test this time around against an Arsenal team that has exploited the mistakes made against them and who had scored at least twice in five games in a row on their travels before the Gunners beat Burnley 0-1 at Turf Moor.

Arsenal failed to break down Chelsea last week at the Emirates Stadium which effectively ended their title challenge, but they can still finish in the top three which means avoiding a Champions League qualifier next season. That is the primary goal for Arsenal who can wrap up the season with another FA Cup win as they take on Aston Villa at the end of the month.

There should be enough quality for Arsenal to show off their capabilities at the KC Stadium, but Hull City have momentum behind them. I just feel they have put in a lot of effort into those games and they might be lacking something here on Monday.

The Gunners have won all 3 games at Hull City over the last six seasons and they have the attacking talent to have a lot of success in this one. However, I can't overlook how well Hull City have done to win back to back Premier League games and give their survival hopes a shot in the arm.

Both teams should be on the attack which could lead to a more open game than some of the layers believe.

As long as Arsenal remain focused, they should have enough chances to win the game. However, I think the fixture will provide goals as it has in recent seasons and backing at least three goals at a little under odds against is the call.

MY PICKS: Leicester City @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hull City-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)