Boxing Picks 2025- Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas (Sunday 4th May)

Some have described the weekend as the Super Bowl of Boxing, but perhaps I am being harsh in being underwhelmed by the show in Times Square.

It did not help that the three main event fights were not as strong as some hoped, but there continues to be a lack of regard for fans and the poor atmospheres we have seen in some events hosted by Saudi Arabia continued with the invite-only attendance.

There is no doubt that a poor fight can be raised by those making noise in the crowd, but that was never going to happen in a crowd that were just pleased to be invited to be there.

No one will criticise any organiser for trying to do something different and the idea as a concept did sound really good- but as soon as it was announced that fans would not be allowed into the ring area, there was a concern and one that played out.

On Saturday it is the turn of Canelo Alvarez and the weekend will be rounded out by Naoya Inoue's return to the United States.

If things go right, we should have some big fight news very soon after those fights are completed and the weekend would then be seen in a very different light. The card in Saudi Arabia looks intriguing, while there is a solid chief support to The Monster in Las Vegas.

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas

There is no doubt who the King of the Super Bantamweight Division is and Naoya Inoue looks like a fighter on a mission.

While a 32 year old Heavyweight may be coming into the prime of his career, it has usually played out pretty differently for those in the lower weight classes. Time becomes even more pressing for a fighter who is moving up the Divisions to find a challenge worthy of his attention and the expectation is that 2025 will be all about tying up loose ends in and around this weight class before moving up to challenge one of the Featherweight Champions.

Nick Ball has been spoken about, but it sounds like Inoue is pretty much tied up through to September and he is then looking to have one more fight in December. The chances are that he will face compatriot Junto Nakatani in that bout before 2026 is about winning more World Titles in yet another Division.

Mistakes cannot be made and Naoya Inoue will not be overlooking Ramon Cardenas, even as a significant favourite.

The American has a single loss in twenty-seven bouts and is a top ten Ranked fighter with three of the four organisations, but it also should be noted that this is a serious step up in terms of level of opponent. Ramon Cardenas did get the better of an unbeaten rival last time out, but facing The Monster has proven to be a very, very different test for most and it may be very difficult for the home fighter to prevent the Champion from making a big statement to those who may not know who he is.

Of course most Boxing fans will just be excited to see Naoya Inoue back in the United States with the next two fights rumoured to be back in Japan and potentially in Saudi Arabia. It lasted Three Rounds when Naoya Inoue last fought in the USA and the feeling is that he is going to find the shots to get this opponent out of the way before the bell is rung for the Seventh Round.

The WBO World Featherweight Title is on the line as the chief support on this card.

Rafael Espinoza has the dimensions to fight at a higher weight, but the Champion continues to make Featherweight and is coming in off a second win over Robeisy Ramirez, the second time in a Stoppage.

He is big for the Division and the hope is that Espinoza will be able to at least attempt to Unify against some of the other Champions. Doing so may put him in line to face Naoya Inoue when The Monster is ready to move into the Featherweight Division, but first he has to get through this defence.

There has to be a respect for Edward Vasquez who has only been beaten twice by Raymond Ford and Joe Cordina and one was by a Split Decision and the other by Majority Division.

A couple of lower level wins has just given Vasquez this opportunity, but it is going to be tough against someone like Espinoza who punches plenty hard.

That power has been clear to see pretty early in fights and Rafael Espinoza will be looking to become the first man to stop Edward Vasquez.

The American has shown grit and determination and that has to be respected, but he may struggle to get near Rafael Espinoza and will be punished trying to dip in and get inside the longer reach. It feels like he could begin to be broken down midway through this Twelve Rounder and that is where Rafael Espinoza can continue his strong run of form since announcing himself as a major player in the Division.

MY PICKS: Naoya Inoue to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Rafael Espinoza to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.20 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 16-45, - 24.90 Units (74 Units Staked, - 33.65% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2025- First Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 29th April-Sunday 4th May)

NBA Playoffs 2025- First Round Picks Game 5-7 (April 29th-May 4th)

The post-season of any sport will have drama and controversy attached to it and every call at this time of the season can be critical.

At the end of a tough regular season, teams and Coaches want things to be decided on the field of play, or on the court in terms of NBA Basketball, but it does not always work out as planned.

My New York Knicks have been involved in the most controversy through four games of their First Round Series, but the calls have gone in favour of the Number 3 Seed and produced a 3-1 lead over the Detroit Pistons. Hearing about mistakes made in the officiating hours after the final score has been set will not do much for the Pistons right now and most of the Series have trended in the direction expected.

That does not mean the lower Seeds are all in trouble- the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors were seen as dangerous lower Seeds and both are leading their Series at the time of writing (the Warriors Game 4 with the Houston Rockets is played on Monday evening).

As expected, the tough Western Conference is where the majority of the drama now resides as we move into the back end of the First Round- the Oklahoma City Thunder swept through to the Semi Finals, but they may have to wait a while before knowing if they are going to be facing the 2023 Champions Denver Nuggets or the dangerous looking Los Angeles Clippers with that Series tied at 2-2.

Over in the East, the Number 1 Seed Cleveland Cavaliers have a chance to wrap up their own place in the Semi Finals on Monday evening, although even a defeat is not expected to delay progress too long, while the Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics and aforementioned Knicks are all one win away from moving through too.

It could all mean that the Eastern Conference Semi Final Series begin this weekend even while the West is yet to wrap up the opening Round, but this will all come out in the wash over the next few days.

The opening NBA Playoff Picks have been far too inconsistent and it has been a tough start, although there is still plenty of games to get through before the next NBA Champion is crowned.

A few of the selections have narrowly failed to get over the line, which can be frustration, but it is a long Playoff run and so nothing to get too panicked over.

Tuesday 29th April

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers Game 5 Pick: From the opening tip of this First Round Series, it has been a real slog for the Milwaukee Bucks and they may just have run out of any real hope of turning things around.

A strong Game 3 effort halved the deficit, but the Bucks were blown out in Game 4 and that in a game where Damian Lillard picked up a serious injury that is going to rule him out for a considerable period of time. After missing the end of the regular season, Lillard's return to the lineup offered a spark to Milwaukee, but they missed his Offensive output as Game 4 got away from them and the lack of depth has left Milwaukee on the brink of another disappointing early effort.

Twelve months ago they had the excuse of not having Giannis Antetokounmpo available, but the Greek superstar has played in this Series and has simply not been offered a lot of support from those around him. Once again there are going to be questions about his future with the team and whether the Milwaukee Bucks can really create a Championship-calibre team for the second time.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to need some serious answers, while Head Coach Doc Rivers has to be under pressure with the perception of another underachieving Playoff run looking destined for his team.

The Bucks will head to Indiana to try and win here for the first time in the Series and see if they can build some pressure on the Pacers, but all of this feels like a long-shot now.

The depth of the Indiana Pacers and the willingness to let the hot hand take over games has pushed them into a dominant position in this First Round Series and it is really difficult to imagine that changing. The Pacers crushed Milwaukee in Game 1 when Damian Lillard was missing for the road team and everything is pointing to a relatively comfortable win in front of the home fans again.

All of the pressure is on the Bucks to make the adjustments needed to create some uncertainty around the First Round Series.

It should be something that helps the Pacers who have been a steady and deep rotation and one that has controlled the Series. The confidence of having reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year should be just guiding this team forward and the Indiana Pacers look set to beat the Milwaukee Bucks and cover this spread.

All three wins in the Series have been by at least 8 points, but two of those wins have been double digit blowouts and the Indiana Pacers can use the depth of their rotation to break down the Milwaukee Bucks again.

Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: The officials have admitted they missed a big call at the very end of Game 4 of this First Round Series.

Now while there is no telling if Tim Hardaway Jr would have made two of the three Free Throws he should have gotten, there is a definite feeling that it would have happened. And that would have meant the Detroit Pistons heading to Madison Square Garden at 2-2 and with the momentum, rather than 3-1 down and facing elimination for the first time in this First Round Series.

What will anger the Pistons most is that they feel they should have been given a call at the end of Game 3 that may have seen them find a way to win or tie that one and there is another dimension where the Pistons would be leading 3-1. It counts for nothing in this one though and the young Detroit team that have achieved so much this season have to find a way to dust themselves down and try and force one more game at home.

This is going to be a huge challenge for a Pistons team that started Game 4 really poorly and did not finish with the kind of flourish that may have just seen them edge in front of the New York Knicks. Inexperience is perhaps showing, but the failure of the officials will really have stung the entire team with just one day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5.

New York will be feeling pretty good after seeing Karl-Anthony Towns make some huge Fourth Quarter plays and just remind those watching why the Knicks traded to bring him in. Jalen Brunson picked up a worrying injury, but also came out strong in the Fourth Quarter and the two deserve a lot of credit for keeping the Knicks in touch and ultimately find a way to secure the victory that takes them to the brink of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

Physicality has been a real feature of the Series, but the referees may be more ready to call fouls after allowing both teams to play as hard as they have. The fact they missed a big call at the end of Game 4 may mean wanting to take control of this game immediately and that could help this Game 5 move past the total line set.

All of the games have been competitive in this Series and we may just get one more of those, which makes the spread in favour of the Detroit Pistons look appealing.

Hosts of Game 5 are only 22-24 against the spread since 2017, while teams who have suffered a close loss have found a way to bounce back and cover the spread in their next game. You have to accept that backing an inexperienced team that has suffered two very close defeats is not a great spot, but the Pistons have shown they can compete with the New York Knicks all season and may do enough to avoid the heavy defeat as they put everything out on the court.

Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: It has been a tough, physical First Round Series and one in which a number of key Boston Celtics players have picked up ailments that have either seen them miss a Playoff game or fight through the pain to compete. They have not been completely convinced that everything that has been done to them should be legal, but the Boston Celtics are NBA Champions for a reason and the win on Sunday may just have broken the back of the Series.

Jrue Holiday is expected to miss out again, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have refused to let this Series get away from the Celtics.

A lot of credit has to be given to the Orlando Magic for making Boston play a game that suits them best- they have been able to harass the key players and simply not allowed the Celtics to get going from the three point arc as they have been accustomed to doing all season.

Doing that at home is always going to be easier though and the Magic were pretty well beaten in both opening games here in Boston. Paolo Banchero and Frank Wagner are trying to do all they can to drag this Series back in the favour of the Magic, but the role players will be challenged in a much tougher environment and it may be tough for Orlando to have the belief to keep up with the Celtics having lost Game 4 pretty late on.

The Magic will look to keep doing what they have, but the adjustments can be made by Boston to try and find a few more open lanes for the shooters. That should be easier to make at home where the fans will just help out those role players who have not really been at the races in the last couple of games.

And despite being dragged into scraps, the Boston Celtics have still looked the superior team by some distance and that may all come out to show on Tuesday as they look to close out the Series and take their place in the Semi Finals. Being set as a big favourite has tended to work out well for the Number 2 Seed in recent history and Boston could easily have covered in all four games played, even if they are 2-2 against the spread through this Series.

This is a big mark, but the feeling is that the Celtics have perhaps broken the spirit of the Number 7 Seed and they can cover a big mark set for Game 5.

LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: There have been so many big Playoff moments through four games of this First Round Series and that makes it very difficult to know exactly where the Series is heading. We are tied at 2-2 after the Denver Nuggets overcame blowing a huge lead, the biggest in their franchise history in the post-season, to score a bucket as time ran out to level things up.

Both teams have seen big leads whittled away within games through the Series and all but one game has been very, very competitive.

The Series shifts back to Denver and the Nuggets have been set as home underdogs with the feeling being that the LA Clippers have easier adjustments to make. Falling in love with the three point shot is not the plan for the Clippers and they showed in that Fourth Quarter of Game 4 that they have the tools to beat the Nuggets, even if they were eventually undone by an unbelievable play to end the game.

Defensively they have allowed Nikola Jokic to have his numbers, but trying to limit the damage others have done has been important for them.

Those same decisions were made by the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 as they decided to hound James Harden and Kawhi Leonard and force others to beat them. This looked to be working perfectly, but the Clippers showed their strength and why they finished the regular season as well as they did and that is going to be key for them in Game 5, which could be a vital one in this Series.

Both teams will be proud of what they have largely been able to do Defensively and this could be another game in the Series that ends with the 'under' coming out on top.

The 'under' is 4-0 and that includes in Game 1 that ended in Overtime, although the layers have dropped the total again.

However, the 'under' is on a 24-16 run in Game 5 of the First Round in the Playoffs, while this has been the play when the total line has been set below 218 total points. Overtime would prove to be an end for the selection, but the two teams may look for the Defensive efforts to secure a lead in the Series with a maximum of two games left and that is the outcome to be backed.

Wednesday 30th April

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 5 Pick: There has not been much love lost between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors throughout this First Round Series and the chippy attitude is set to continue with the teams moving back to Houston.

The opening win in Houston has helped push the Golden State Warriors to the edge of moving through to the Semi Finals after holding serve in both home games. The victory on Monday in Game 4 saw the Warriors come out extremely well in the Third Quarter to turn things around and the returning Jimmy Butler was key for Golden State as they narrowly won the game and took complete control of the Series.

Championship experience will mean Golden State are focused in trying to get the job done without having to return home for a Game 6 and they will also be keen to earn a few days of rest. There is every chance that the Series between Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves will also end on Wednesday evening and that will mean the Warriors will be keen on earning the same amount of rest before Game 1 of the next Series.

Draymond Green was in foul trouble on Monday so had minutes limited, but both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler played 40 minutes and that has to be a potential factor with just a day of rest between games.

The young Rockets team have shown some of the inexperience throughout this Series and they are under pressure with one more loss ending what has been a very good season. Trying to avoid that in front of the home fans will help, even if hosts have struggled in Game 5 of the recent First Round Series that have been played.

Number 2 Seeds that are set as favourites of at least 4.5 points have a very strong recent history of covering, while those Seeds playing after a defeat are on a 20-7 run against the spread.

As much as the Warriors would love to wrap up this Series, they may have to deal with one more big swing from the Houston Rockets, even if the higher Seeded team need to overcome the disappointment of not tying up this Series following two games at Golden State. The line is considerable if the inexperience shows, but a positive start from Houston could see them take control and have Golden State mentally preparing to complete the Series win later in the week.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 5 Pick: They may have players that have won NBA Championships and played in NBA Finals, but the Los Angeles Lakers will know they missed a trick by failing to win one of the two games played on the road over the last few days. Instead of returning home at least level, the Lakers are 3-1 behind and questions are being asked about the team and Head Coach JJ Redick.

He would have been given a lot of credit for making the in-game adjustments that had the Lakers motoring through the Third Quarter and moving into a position to control Game 4, but the failure to give those players any rest felt costly down the stretch. Even then, the Lakers frustration will have grown when officials admitted they had got a late call wrong, which may have given the Lakers a chance to have the last shot to win the game and tie the Series.

They had played well in Game 3 too before another late Fourth Quarter collapse and that will really disappoint a roster that has the likes of Luka Doncic and LeBron James to lead the team at critical moments.

Instead it has been Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves making the big late plays that have turned this Series in favour of the dangerous Number 6 Seed and they will be looking to close the show on Wednesday.

Doing so on the road will be challenging, but the Timberwolves can take confidence in how they have handled adversity in their last couple of games. They have also won Game 1 at Crypto.com Arena and Minnesota will be keen on extending what has been a poor covering spot for hosts in Game 5 of the First Round.

The Lakers will be grateful for an extra day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, but the noise around the team will have been deafening as they return home looking to keep the season alive. A short rotation has meant some of the players have had to spend considerable time on the court and that will wear down any team at this time of the season and especially when dealing with an opponent like the Minnesota Timberwolves who had ended the regular season in strong form.

Teams that are looking to close out a Series before Game 7 have a very strong record when either set as a favourite of less than 3 points or when they are down as the underdog like Minnesota are on Wednesday. Those teams are 14-6 against the spread in the last twenty occasions in that situation and the Timberwolves can make use of the points being given to them in this Game 5.

Thursday 1st May

New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Game 6 Pick: There has to have been some feeling that the New York Knicks had gotten the hard work out of the way by winning twice on the road to move into a 3-1 lead in this First Round Series. One more big effort would have been needed, but the Series continues to be hugely competitive, as anticipated when the Playoff bracket was set, and this time it was the Detroit Pistons who edged to the win.

Twelve points- that is the combined total that has decided the last four games in this Series and those have been split with two road wins each.

Seventeen years have passed since the Detroit Pistons have won a home Playoff game and they will be frustrated with how each of the first two games have ended at the Little Caesars Arena. Better officiating may have seen the Pistons win both, but those are in the past and Head Coach JB Bickerstaff is just focusing on making sure his team is able to return to Madison Square Garden for one more game.

They found some solutions to slow down Jalen Brunson in Game 5 to bring this game back home, but they will need Ausar Thompson to make sure he is as disciplined as he was the last time out. The Pistons may also benefit from this Game 6 being played with just a day of rest, especially if Brunson and Josh Hart are both banged up.

It led to a late game situation in Game 5 where both Brunson and Hart were waiting to check back into action, but the Knicks Head Coach Tom Thibodeau refused to call a timeout, or ask his team to foul, to bring both back in. Questions will be asked about that if the Knicks are eliminated in the First Round and so there is plenty of pressure on the Number 3 Seed who are looking to progress at the second time of asking.

They have shown a real determination to win here twice, but it may be asking a lot to do that for a third time in the Series.

New York do have a couple of historical trends in their favour- road teams have played well in Game 6, while those looking to close a Series on the road have been very strong against the spread. Small favourites, or underdogs, who are looking to close out a Series have been productive before the Game 7 decider and so there will be people ready to back the Knicks.

However, it may be tough if Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart are not playing at their top level and the momentum is back with the Detroit Pistons having hung on for a road win on Tuesday.

Another competitive game has to be expected, and the Pistons may be ready to force that Game 7 later this week.

Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers Game 6 Pick: After coming out shooting the ball as efficiently as they did, the Denver Nuggets were able to dominate Game 5 from the opening tip off and that has put them 3-2 ahead in this First Round Series.

Nikola Jokic is the best player the Nuggets have on the roster, but the LA Clippers know that too and so it was extremely important for Denver to have Jamal Murray at his peak Playoff level in the blowout win in Game 5.

Now they take aim at moving past the LA Clippers and get ready to face the top Seed Oklahoma City Thunder, but there has to be a reaction expected from the home team. James Harden struggled and the Defensive intensity was simply missing in the loss in Game 5 and the adjustments have to be made to ensure both factors are turned around when they meet back in the City of Angels.

Back to back losses will have dented the confidence of the LA Clippers, but they have plenty of Playoff experience and that is so important. Players will have suffered heavy post-season losses before and know how to handle those and you have to believe it is going to be easier for the LA Clippers to fight back in front of the home fans.

It has been a Series dominated by the underdog and that cannot be ignored when the teams meet on Thursday.

Both are familiar with what the other wants to do and it does come down to execution and the Nuggets have shown they can win games in different ways to turn this Series back in their favour.

They are in a positive spot with road teams doing really well in recent years in Game 6 of the First Round of the Playoffs, while the Nuggets are also falling into the historical trends mentioned in the New York Knicks preview of road teams having a positive record at closing Series in this situation.

The outright winner of Game 6 has dominated the spread over the last decade and the LA Clippers are very dangerous. However, it feels the momentum shift makes this number of points difficult for the home team to cover and the Denver Nuggets can backed here.

Friday 2nd May

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: Plenty of reporters have written about the blowout loss suffered by the Golden State Warriors in Game 5 and compared it with the performance in the Semi Final Series win over the Memphis Grizzlies in the exact same situation in 2022.

The Warriors not only rallied to win that Series 4-2, but they were able to move forward and win the NBA Championship and this is a veteran roster who will not be panicking about one loss.

However, the concern has to be that the likes of Draymond Green, Steph Curry are much older in 2025 compared with where they would have been in 2022 and there is a lack of rest being offered to them between games as the First Round Series winds down. Head Coach Steve Kerr was able to give his older players plenty of rest with Game 5 getting out of hand and he resisted bringing them back in after the backups helped the Warriors rally and make the final score much closer than the overall feel of that game.

There was some concern in the Houston Rockets ranks having had to bring back the starters to end the rally the Warriors had put together and yet the Series remains very chippy. Another player faced an ejection and the teams clearly are not getting on with one another, while Golden State have suggested that the Rockets are trying to injure Steph Curry by bending the rules and hitting his thumb after a shot has been released.

Houston are resisting all of that talk and instead will feel they have some momentum as the Number 2 Seed bids to avoid being eliminated in the First Round. Heading to Golden State for Game 6 is going to present a big challenge for Houston, but they have been competitive in both games hosted by the Warriors and that has to give the Rockets a huge amount of encouragement.

They know they are the younger and fresher team, although you cannot ever dismiss the value of experience that Golden State have, and Houston will look to use their legs to wear the Warriors down.

The feeling is that we are going to get one huge effort from the Warriors, but a team looking to close out a Series having failed once to do so have struggled against the spread in recent seasons. Hosting Game 6 has proven to be a tough spot in which to cover too and Houston look to be getting enough points in this one to keep this close, even if they were to be beaten and eliminated.

Opposing Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler and everything we have seen from these players in the post-season is not exactly a position in which you can feel comfortable, but the Rockets look capable of pushing all the way and this feels like enough points that can see the road underdog cover.

Saturday 3rd May

LA Clippers @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: One or two First Round Series really stood out as potentially needing all seven games to decide a winner and this would have been one of the leading contenders to do that. Big adjustments made by the LA Clippers put them in a solid position to keep control of Game 6 and at least force one more outing at the home of the Denver Nuggets for a place in the Western Conference Semi Finals.

Both teams have plenty of veteran experience to lean on, although the challenge may come in the next Round against the Number 1 Seed Oklahoma City Thunder who have been resting after sweeping past the Memphis Grizzlies. That is a story for another day and everything that has been put into the 2024/25 season will come down to this 'win or go home' setting for the Clippers and Nuggets.

Picking a winner is not easy and that is backed up by the oddsmakers who have effectively left this as a 'pick 'em' contest.

The Clippers may feel they have the momentum having won Game 6 and the adjustments they made for that victory will stand them in good stead. They will be keen for James Harden to make another fast start and the experience of Head Coach Tyronn Lue is very important as the Clippers look to avoid what would be a disappointing First Round Playoff exit.

Despite not having the same level of experience as Head Coach, David Adelman can lean on a group of players who were key in helping the Denver Nuggets win the 2023 NBA Championship. He will be looking for a cleaner game from his players with the turnovers in Game 6 proving to be a key part of the reason that the team were beaten, while Adelman will sit with the veterans and look to find a way to get Jamal Murray going again.

At this stage of the First Round, both Denver and the LA Clippers will be well aware of the capabilities of the other and there won't be too many surprises. The favourite has tended to prevail in recent First Round Game 7s and that is largely down to the fact that the layers have a pretty good idea about the capabilities of both teams by this point of the Series.

However, as mentioned, picking a winner is not easy and instead it may be wise to look for this game to follow the last two and move past the total set. The Clippers have certainly felt they need to sacrifice some Defensive work to score more points, while the Nuggets will believe they can be more efficient scoring than they were in Game 6, which finished at 216 points combined/

The total has actually slipped from Game 6 and it may be partly down to the one day between rest and the games in Denver trending towards the lower end of the total line that would be set. However, the last one here ended with both Offensive units flying and the teams are capable of combining to move past this total if both continue to believe that scoring needs to be improved.

Calls for more fouls to be punished may also lead to a longer Game 7 with teams heading to the Free Throw line and it should be noted that the last sixteen Game 7s in this Round of the post-season have finished with eleven surpassing the line set. With both teams showing what they can do Offensively in the last couple of games, this is another may end with the 'over' coming in.

Sunday 4th May

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Game 7 Pick: You may have thought the Playoff experiences of the Golden State Warriors would shine through, but the Fourth Quarter collapse against the Houston Rockets in Game 6 is a worrying sign. The First Round of the Playoff Series comes down to a winner takes all Game 7 in Houston and all of the momentum is with the Number 2 Seed having recovered from a 3-1 deficit and looked the much stronger team in Game 5 and Game 6.

The adjustments made by the Golden State Warriors have not made the impact they would have hoped- they have managed to control Jalen Green, but Fred VanVleet has Playoff experience and has been getting stronger as the Series has moved on.

It was VanVleet who made the big plays in Game 6 and the Houston Rockets have to be feeling very comfortable in the position they are in.

The Warriors will always feel they have good chances with the experience on the roster, but Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green have been putting in big shifts on the court and you do have to wonder if the veterans are running out of gas. They have not been helped by the relentless pressure that the Houston Rockets have been able to put on them on the Defensive side of the court and the lack of depth on the roster has shown up in the last couple of games in the Series.

Everyone in Houston has to be expecting at least one more big push from the Warriors, but the key for the Rockets is making sure they continue to force Golden State to work as hard as they have been for every bucket they are making.

It could see Houston wear down this opponent and complete the recovery from 1-3 to secure passage into the Second Round of the Playoff.

Favourites have been a solid team to back in Game 7 in recent First Round Series, although they have struggled to cover. However, this time the Houston Rockets look to have the majority of factors in their favour and they will certainly be inspired by the feeling that the layers still do not believe in them by setting them as a narrow home favourite.

Game 7 is a pressurised situation and that is where the Warriors experience may yet shine through, but it is hard to look past the momentum picked up by Houston and how much stronger they have looked in the last couple of games in this Series. That should eventually be seen again in this big game and the Houston Rockets may power through to the next Round.

MY PICKS: 29/04 Indiana Pacers - 8 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

29/04 Detroit Pistons + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

29/04 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

29/04 Denver Nuggets-LA Clippers Under 208.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

30/04 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

30/04 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

01/05 Detroit Pistons - 2 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

01/05 Denver Nuggets + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

02/05 Houston Rockets + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

03/05 Denver Nuggets-LA Clippers Over 204.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

04/05 Houston Rockets - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia (Saturday 4th May)

Upsets in Boxing really do make some major headlines and it was no surprise that many were talking about Ryan Garcia's win over Devin Haney after a tumultuous build up.

That confused many and there was a feeling that Ryan Garcia was not completely focused on the huge fight that was coming up, and even coming overweight was forgiven relatively quickly in light of his win.

It is unlikely to be the case with the news that has broken on Wednesday evening.

Failing a drugs test after coming in overweight should mean Ryan Garcia is hit hard by fans and the boxing commissions, and the win over Haney is now incredibly tainted. It should have been after missing weight deliberately, but Devin Haney's team should have pulled the plug on the event with his well-being in mind and ultimately they went ahead having been paid enough to do so.

However, it is not going to be the case when it comes to this drugs test failure and Ryan Garcia should be ashamed- he won't be having picked up a career payday and ultimately Boxing will know how big his next fight will become after all this controversy, but he should be battered from pillar to post for an absolute pathetic display of cheating.

What makes it worse is the amount of so called fans who will make excuses for fighters like this- the idea that someone is victimising the cheat is an incredible way to look at the evidence, but others have gone down that route over the last couple of years so there is no surprise that Garcia's approach will be the same.

Instead of hearing about a length of a ban, the anticipation is that Ryan Garcia will announce his retirement and serve his suspension under the cover of that blanket. Like others, he will then announce his return and give us some strange story about being 'self-cleared' as if the failed test was a mistake by the testers and Boxing will likely welcome back a potential needle-moving 'star'.

It is a story that we have seen time after time with some of the biggest names still operating in the sport and should not come as a surprise to anyone when it happens.

For Devin Haney, the plan will be to force a No Contest decision to remove the loss from the record, but social media makes things very different now.

Losing in that high profile spot and some of the images from the Knock Downs cannot be erased and there will also be some mental demons to exorcise going forward. He took some real punishment and that is a shame considering Haney was playing within the rules and suffered for that by someone willing to cut corners, act unprofessionally and ultimately cheat.

Expunging the result from the record may work when it is read out before fights, but Devin Haney is right to be furious and will have to change the narrative around that result in the ring, certainly as far as a certain portion of the fanbase are concerned.

This is a story that has legs and will likely be in the forefront of Boxing headlines for some time to come, but the hope is that this weekend will see those in the ring making the statements.

There are two big names heading out on Saturday in the United States and then on Monday in Japan.

Thoughts on Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery will be placed in a separate thread with the focus in this one being the return of Canelo Alvarez who takes on a young compatriot that has been calling for this fight for a long time.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia

Hours before the Ryan Garcia news broke, Oscar De La Hoya stood at the podium and made note of the failed drug tests that Canelo Alvarez had several years ago.

He might be regretting that now with Golden Boy's top star under the cloud of a failed test of his own, but De La Hoya is clearly trying to get into the head of Canelo Alvarez and hoping to rattle him enough to make mistakes.

Tension between the two, former promoter and star fighter, have been growing since Canelo Alvarez took the legal route to get out of his contract with Golden Boy. He managed to do that and there has been no love lost between Canelo and Oscar De La Hoya, which came to a head in the last presser and with two almost squaring up.

It could have been a bout several years ago, but that is not likely to happen now despite what Oscar De La Hoya has hinted at in recent times.

And while these two are jawing at one another, with some serious allegations being made by Canelo Alvarez against Golden Boy and De La Hoya, Jaime Munguia is quietly focusing on the biggest night of his career.

This has been a fight that Jaime Munguia has long been speaking about, but the question remains- how good is the unbeaten Mexican? Pulling out of World Title eliminators or when pushed into a Number 1 contender spot has raised eyebrows and it has felt like Munguia has been positioned to earn this fight without taking any serious risk.

Back in 2018, an unknown Jaime Munguia was close to stepping into the ring with Gennady Golovkin, but it was decided by the Nevada State Athletic Commission that the then 21 year old was not a suitable opponent. Instead he was given the chance to rip the WBO Light Middleweight World Title from Sadam Ali and Jaime Munguia announced himself in a big way with a Fourth Round Stoppage.

The resume since that win over Ali shows how carefully Jaime Munguia has been matched and you would find it tough to point out a stand out win. Beating Sergiy Derevyanchenko is perhaps that victory, but Munguia was very close to losing that one and needed a Twelfth Round Knock Down to secure a narrow victory on the cards, while the victory over John Ryder in January was against an opponent who has since retired.

Canelo Alvarez does look to be on the slide, but this is still a considerable step up for Jaime Munguia and the feeling is that it might have come a touch too early for him. The power is perhaps not quite there at Super Middleweight, but Canelo Alvarez is still a quality fighter who can impress in those spurts to put the Rounds in the bank.

The last three wins have all been on the cards against Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder and Jermell Charlo, although none of those performances can really be considered that impressive.

However, there is no doubting the Boxing IQ and Canelo's foot work is likely going to be the key to getting past his young compatriot, although the Champion will be pushed at times.

The work rate of Jaime Munguia will make him dangerous, but he can be outboxed and it feels like it will be very difficult for him to land something significant enough to completely change momentum within this Championship bout. Having his successes is one thing, but having enough to secure a win on the cards looks unlikely even if the expectation is that Jaime Munguia will offer much more of a positive approach than Jermell Charlo did.

The younger fighter will be able to come again, but the expectation is that Canelo Alvarez will have his hand raised after Twelve Rounds are completed. While this has the makings of an intriguing fight, the prices are less impressive and finding a good angle to approach this one is tough.

Canelo has Knocked Down three of his last five opponents to show he has the pop to hurt Jaime Munguia, although perhaps not to finish him. However, he is just about odds against to put Munguia down during the Twelve Rounds and this is going to be a fight to enjoy without picking a position in which I expect it to be concluded.

The most likely outcome feels like Canelo Alvarez will win this one on the cards, perhaps by a closer margin than some expect, and it would not be a surprise to me to see a 116/112 score across the board.

The undercard is featuring a number of fighters looking to push their careers forward, none more so than Eimantas Stanionis who is the WBA Regular Champion in the Welterweight Division.

The 147 pounders have been held up by Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr and things are still murky ten months after those two leading names met with Bud taking home Undisputed. He is set to move up to Light Middleweight and that should mean the World Titles are officially vacated with the likes of Stanionis and Mario Berrios likely being upgraded.

Despite the hold up, injuries both to the Regular Champion and his opponents has meant Eimantas Stanionis has been far too inactive in recent years.

He might be the WBA Regular Champion, but that sounds silly when you think Stanionis will be making his ring return for the first time in over two years. Inactivity is unforgivable and this will be just the third fight since April 2021, which could leave Eimantas Stanionis vulnerable, even against this level of opponent.

Gabriel Maestre is somehow Ranked at Number 4 by the WBA after just seven professional bouts and he holds a controversial win over Mykal Fox and a Split Decision draw with Taras Shelestyuk on his resume. He did win a couple of fights against veteran Devon Alexander and unbeaten Travon Marshall in 2023 and that activity may make him dangerous, but it is still a big ask of Maestre to rip the title from Stanionis.

The Champion should retain, but his inactivity really makes it very difficult to know what we are going to see- the only hope is that with Jaron Ennis soon to return, the Welterweight Division finally gets back to life after both Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr move on following long dominances in the weight class.

Both Eimantas Stanionis and Jaron Ennis have been given full titles with the WBA and IBF in the 147 pound Division, but Mario Barrios is an Interim WBC World Champion who will be upgraded if he retains this weekend. He goes up against Fabian Andres Maidana, who is the younger brother of Marcos Maidana, and retaining the Interim World Title will put Barrios in line to perhaps Unify with the likes of Stanionis and/or Ennis in the months ahead.

Terence Crawford moves into the Light Middleweight Division in early August, when the WBC are likely to make the winner of this fight the full World Champion, and so there is a lot on the line.

Mario Barrios lost back to back fights against Gervonta Davis and Keith Thurman, but he returned to win two fights in 2023, including the upset of former World Champion Yordenis Ugas in September to pick up this Interim Title. The dominance shown in that win will have given Barrios confidence as he prepares to face a name that is very familiar to those in the United States.

Instead of Fabian Andres, Marcos Maidana will be the name people are thinking of when seeing the opponent that is facing Mario Barrios and the hope for many is that the younger brother is as capable as Marcos showed he was during his pomp.

He is something of an unknown and the feeling is that Marcos' name will be a bigger selling point around this fight than anything that Fabian Andres has achieved. The majority of recent bouts have been in his home country and there are not many names that will stand out on the resume, which suggests this is a considerable step upwards.

Argentinian fighters are tough and Fabian Andres Maidana is very much expected to be the same, but this is an opportunity for Mario Barrios to show that he is ready to compete with the very best names left in the 147 pound Division.

Mario Barrios has shown he has pop that will give Maidana something to think about, although the big question in this bout is whether the Interim Champion can go through the gears and force the Stoppage.

The expectation is that Barrios can go wear down Maidana and ultimately that is likely going to lead to a late Stoppage. The underdog and Challenger will be a threat and may go for broke if he is behind, but that may mean more opportunities for Mario Barrios to find a big counter or two late on to eventually get the referee to step in and end this contest before the scorecards.

Fourteen months have passed since we last saw Brandon Figueroa in the ring and the current Interim WBC Featherweight Champion will be looking to defend that Belt against Jessie Magdaleno.

Cuts have perhaps contributed to the layoff, and in that time Rey Vargas has returned to the Division having defending the full WBC World Title in a controversial draw with Nick Ball, who should have perhaps earned the win. This result does leave Brandon Figueroa's future as Interim Champion a little uncertain, but the focus has to be on returning with a victory and then pursuing Vargas before eventually trying to Unify against other World Champions.

There is definitely some excitement about the return of Brandon Figueroa who is rarely in a poor fight and he will certainly feel he can hand Jessie Magdaleno a third career defeat.

The last time we saw Magdaleno he was coming up short against Raymond Ford, who has since come from behind in a World Title bid to become the new WBA Featherweight Champion.

He has had a similar lay off to Brandon Figueroa and the feeling is that the Interim World Champion will have too much work rate and too much power for Jessie Magdaleno to be able to stand up to all he faces.

There were times where Raymond Ford looked to have worn down Magdaleno, whose previous defeat was late in the fight against Isaac Dogboe.

Something similar may occur here when Brandon Figueroa shakes off some of the early ring rust and the body work that he puts in is likely going to pay dividends at some point just past halfway. Raymond Ford almost made that pay out against Jessie Magdaleno, but the feeling is that Brandon Figueroa has a bit more pop and ultimately I expect the Interim World Champion to force the Stoppage in around Nine Rounds.

MY PICKS: Mario Barrios to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Brandon Figueroa to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.60 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 17-27, + 10.92 Units (62 Units Staked, + 17.61% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 4th)

It was another mixed day for the Tennis Picks and I have been a little disappointed with my record in the Madrid Masters after the strong outcome of the Estoril/Munich events.

Things have been difficult so far, but the players left in the tournament should have begun to get to grips with the conditions in Madrid.

The markets have yet to be put together for some of the matches that are to come later in the day on Wednesday in the Second Round in the ATP Madrid event, but any selections from those will be added to this thread.

Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: All players that have reached the Quarter Final of a big tournament like the WTA Madrid event will be feeling pretty confident about their chances of going on and winning the title. With Ashleigh Barty retired and Iga Swiatek withdrawn from the event, the Madrid Masters looks pretty open and all of the players remaining in the draw are going to believe they can set a marker for the upcoming French Open.

Of course it also has to be noted that the Madrid Masters is played in much different conditions than those at Roland Garros and so the Champion here will still have something to prove. Next week the second Masters event on the clay in Rome will be beginning and that may be a tournament that gives us a better idea of the kind of players that may have a big impact at the next Grand Slam.

In saying that, Amanda Anisimova will be feeling good about her tennis having reached the Semi Final in Charleston before her run to the Quarter Final here in Madrid. The American has yet to really fulfil the kind of potential she has, but Amanda Anisimova has not had the best of times personally and I do think that has affected her tennis.

However, the former French Open Semi Finalist looks to be playing some strong tennis on the clay courts and she has been a player that has enjoyed playing on the clay courts. The wins in Madrid have rarely come easy this week, but Amanda Anisimova won well in the Third Round after a couple of tough victories and confidence has to be strong knowing she can weather the difficult moments.

Amanda Anisimova has been serving well and that will be important for her in the conditions, but she does have room for improvement having won just 43% of return points played. Break points have been created regularly in the tournament, but Amanda Anisimova will be looking to be a little better on the big points and especially in a match like this one.

Her Quarter Final opponent Ekaterina Alexandrova has come through the Qualifiers before winning three matches in the main draw, but there were one or two concerning signs at the end of her Third Round win. The Qualifier missed Match Points at 5-3 and 5-4 in the decider, and Ekaterina Alexandrova looked like she was running on fumes so the day off between matches is going to be key for the underdog.

In recent years Ekaterina Alexandrova has not had the best record on the clay courts, but in 2022 she has been playing really well and she could be dangerous. The serve has been setting her up through the tournament in Madrid and Alexandrova has won 49% of return points played, although only one of the five wins has come against a top 50 Ranked opponent.

Over the last twelve months, Ekaterina Alexandrova has struggled with her return and second serve when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent and I do think she is going to be a touch fatigued against a player who has a solid clay court game.

In their sole previous match, Amanda Anisimova had too much for Ekaterina Alexandrova on a hard court and the latter struggled with her return on the day. In these conditions in Madrid, I think the American can work her way past her opponent and I think she may be the fresher of the two players as this match develops, something that should see the American pull clear for a good win on her way through to the Semi Final.

Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ons Jabeur: Any player who starts a professional career in tennis and ends up winning two Grand Slam titles would look back with positives, but the feeling for Simona Halep is that there is still some meat on the bone. A former French Open and Wimbledon Champion has clearly made the decision to partner with Patrick Mouratoglou with the ambition to win more Grand Slams and her return to her favoured surface has been reaping rewards this week.

Beating Iga Swiatek looks like it will be the big challenge for every player on the WTA side of the Tour when the French Open begins, but the World Number 1 is not here this week and Simona Halep has knocked off the World Number 2.

The former World Number 1 is a three time Finalist at the French Open and her performances here in Madrid have been very encouraging with three strong wins behind her. Simona Halep has not dropped a set yet, and she has been able to serve very well with the first serve really proving to be a potent weapon for her.

Even the second serve has been well protected and this side of her game is backed up by a return which has seen Simona Halep win almost 49% of return points and break serve at least three times in all three of her wins.

This is another tough test for Halep when she meets Ons Jabeur in the Quarter Final and the top ten Ranked player has been in good form on the clay courts in each of the last couple of years. This season Ons Jabeur has reached the Final in Charleston and the Quarter Final in Stuttgart, while her run to the Quarter Final in Madrid has backed up the early performances on the clay with the French Open coming up later this month.

The key to this match may be the second serve for the two players- Ons Jabeur has struggled to protect that part of her tennis in Madrid, although the first serve has been in good shape. You have to expect Simona Halep to get on top of the second serve, and that is going to put some pressure on Jabeur to make sure she increases the number of first serves she gets in play.

Both of these players are returning well enough to mean that the first serve has to keep the other at bay and it does feel like Simona Halep is going to get more of those in play. The surface is one she favours over Ons Jabeur and I do think Halep has long been one of the best players on the clay courts and I am looking for her to secure her place in the Semi Final.

When these players met in Dubai earlier this year, Simona Halep was a comfortable winner and I think there is more of an edge for her on the clay courts. She can show that off and underline her place as arguably the second favourite to win the French Open with another impressive win in this Masters event.

MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

David Goffin @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Madrid Update: 11-11, - 2.62 Units (44 Units Staked, - 5.95% Yield)

Madrid Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 4th)

The Bank Holiday Weekend is behind us in the United Kingdom, but that has not been the reason that there have not been any Tennis Picks over the last three days.

The most simple reason is usually the right one- in this case there have literally not been any matches that have fit my criteria.

It is perhaps a surprise to read that, but some of the reasons were wanting to see what kind of form players are in, while a top tournament like the one being played in Madrid will have some very competitive matches that feel difficult to call.

Another reason is that the ATP Madrid event hadn't begun at the same time as the WTA one and so it is natural that there are fewer selections anyway.

Things look different on Tuesday 4th May and I do like the look of a number of matches on this day.

Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: A run to the Final in Istanbul and two solid wins in the main draw in Madrid will have given Elise Mertens plenty of belief in her ability to perform on the clay courts. However this is not a surface on which she has been able to produce her best tennis consistently and now she will be facing an opponent who is not only one of the best players on this surface on the WTA Tour, but one who has gotten the better of Mertens in their head to head.

Simona Halep is the current World Number 3, but she is entering one of her favourites part of the season. In general you would describe Halep has an all-court player, but her most consistent tennis has been played on the clay courts and she has looked strong in her two wins in Madrid after reaching the Stuttgart Semi Final.

I have little doubt that Halep will go into the French Open as one of the favourites, but this is still a match in which she will have to work hard to win. The serve has largely been working well for Halep, but the Romanian will be well aware of the returning qualities of Mertens which should fashion some break points for the latter and at least help her try and remain competitive.

Returning on the clay courts has been a huge strength for Simona Halep too and since 2017 she has produced four seasons in a row on this surface when she has won at least 50% of return points played in clay court matches. That is always going to exert a lot of pressure on opponents and it has been evident already this week having won two of the four sets played without losing a game.

Neither of these players have a dominant first serve, but the key for Simona Halep and Elise Mertens is to not allow the other to see too many second serves. That side of their tennis is going to be attacked by the other, but I do think Halep is the stronger all around player on the surface and also has the mental edge thanks to a 4-1 lead in their head to head matches.

The three previous head to head matches on the clay courts have all been won by Simona Halep and all in relatively routine fashion by the former World Number 1. Elise Mertens has really struggled in those matches and the numbers back that up with the Belgian struggling to protect the serve and not being able to get into the Halep service games as well as she would have liked.

There was at least some competitiveness to the last match they have played against each on the clay courts of Prague in 2020, but Simona Halep was still a fairly comfortable winner. I expect breaks of serve in this one for both players, but for Simona Halep to eventually showcase her superior comfort on the clay courts and break down Elise Mertens for a win and cover.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: After being a pretty solid, but unspectacular, clay courter, Aryna Sabalenka looks to have taken the next step in her development on the red dirt. We only have a small sample of matches played in 2021 on the clay, but Sabalenka reaching the Final in Stuttgart and producing two strong wins in Madrid should not be overlooked.

The run in Stuttgart is particularly impressive for the one-sided Semi Final win over Simona Halep, while Sabalenka took the first set against Ashleigh Barty before the former French Open Champion turned things around. While I have no doubt that Aryna Sabalenka will have been frustrated with her performance in the last two sets of the Final against Barty, I do think the Belarusian has picked up some valuable confidence and has looked really strong this week.

She takes on Jessica Pegula who has not really shown a lot of confidence when playing on the clay courts. A strong 2021 to this point is encouraging for Pegula, but there has been little clay court tennis played and her previous record on the surface offers little encouragement.

The win over Sorana Cirstea in the First Round is impressive considering Cirstea has won a title on the surface this season, but this is another level being stepped up by Jessica Pegula and she knows full well how tough it can be to beat Aryna Sabalenka on the clay before.

Last Autumn, Sabalenka crushed Jessica Pegula at the French Open for the loss of four games and she dominated the return of serve.

Jessica Pegula served well in her first win on the clay, but she did not return as well as she will need to in this match and I do think Sabalenka can put her under immense pressure in this Third Round match. It will be close with this spread being a pretty big one, but the Belarusian looks in very strong form and can get over the mark in a win.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jan-Lennard Struff @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Madrid Masters Update: 7-7, - 1.90 Units (28 Units Staked, - 6.79% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2019- Canelo Alvarez vs Danny Jacobs (May 4th)

The last two years in the Boxing world have been very fun with some big fight nights put together, but so far 2019 has been lacking a little bit. The top three Heavyweights splitting up and doing their own thing has been a real disappointment, while we have yet to get the really big Unification fights in the Light-Heavyweight, Light-Middleweight and Welterweight Divisions that most want to see.

At least the World Boxing Super Series has come through some of its difficulties to make sure their Semi Final and Finals from the three weight Division tournament that began at the end of 2018 are going to be completed. That means some big fights are coming up with multiple titles on the line, but the start of May could also be the beginning of a very strong run over the remainder of 2019.

Saturday's Unification in the Middleweight Division between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs is a definite top fight that could be the best fight of the year so far. It is the main event being shown live on Sky Sports in the United Kingdom and I am looking forward to this one.

On the same night Artur Berterbiev is back in action on a separate card which is also being shown live for the UK fans,


It has been a pretty miserable 2019 for my Boxing Picks too and that is the reason I've taken a couple of cards off from making those selections. I've had a slight bit of misfortune with a couple of selections which could have easily gone my way, but that is just the nature of the way things go and I am sure I had my fair share of luck in 2018.

Hopefully I can get back into a positive groove with these picks and the numbers can also begin to reflect in the weeks and months ahead.

Jerwin Ancajas vs Ryuichi Funai

Most fighters will not be questioned about how much is left in the tank at 27 years old, but there are some out there who have had plenty of Rounds on the body and who could be slipping even at this relatively young age.

One of those is Jerwin Ancajas who is a popular Boxer but one who looked short of where he once stood in his last fight. You can't take one fight as the rule for any Boxer, but the Rounds have added up for Ancajas and he owns a World Title in an incredibly competitive Division.

He can keep himself in line for some big fights in the months ahead by holding onto the IBF Title he barely escaped with from his last bout with Santiago Barrios which was ruled a Draw. A lot of observers think Ancajas lost that fight and was very lucky to get away with his Title, but this is a bout which looks to be one that get him back on track for some bigger tests ahead.

Ryuichi Funai is older than Ancajas and has simply not been operating at the same type of level. Being from Japan I would expect Funai to be a tough fighter who won't wilt easily, but three of his seven losses have come by stoppage and I think Ancajas can show off that there is still something left in him by becoming the latest to do that.

It won't be easy and it might take a bit of time to break down Funai who has been stopped in the latter stages of the fights in which he has been broken down. The telling factor will be how much Ancajas has left to give and whether he can show a much improved performance than the one he had against Barrios, but this is a level down from that I believe and I will look for the Filipino to earn the stoppage in the second half of this one.

Artur Berterbiev vs Radivoje Kalajdzic

The main event in California on Saturday 4th May is the return of Artur Berterbiev to defend his Light-Heavyweight Title in what is one of the hottest Divisions in Boxing. If the Russian can get through this test, Berterbiev has some huge Unifications that could be put together in the next few months and I do think he is going to be too strong for Radivoje Kalajdzic.

The Challenger will come in with the standout performance on his resume being a controversial Split Decision loss to Marcus Browne. The latter has gone on to win a World Title which has only increased the impressiveness of Kalajdzic's performance that day, but it was also a little over three years ago and Browne is much improved since then.

It is hard to know what kind of improvements Kalajdzic has made considering his three fights in that time have lasted a combined seven Rounds with his last two being ended in the First Round against overmatched opponents. One of those wins was against an unbeaten Travis Peterkin, but I don't know if Kalajdzic has done enough to think he can get the better of someone as strong as Beterbiev.

Issues outside of the ring have prevented Beterbiev from being a lot more active, but he showed he has lost none of his power in the shoot out with Callum Johnson. That has to be a concern for Kalajdzic who was put down by Marcus Browne in the First Round of the aforementioned bout and I think the Champion is going to get the better of this in a dramatic fight.

The reach and the height are with Kalajdzic, but I have a feeling that is going to be negated pretty early as he looks to fight fire with fire and ultimately that is where the raw strength of Beterbiev should make the difference. It is likely to be a fight that comes out before the Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs bout in Las Vegas so should provide fun fireworks for fans tuning in.

Artur Beterbiev is one of the best in this Division and he can make a statement with a first half stoppage in this one.

Canelo Alvarez vs Danny Jacobs

For most fans the Middleweight fight that most would still want to see the most is Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin trilogy and it is likely that will move a step closer for September if the former is able to get through this one.

He should be taking anything for granted though against Danny Jacobs who is the consensus Number 3 in the Division and who pushed Golovkin all the way two years ago. Many thought he was unfortunate not to be given the Decision that day and it is going to be just as difficult to be able to do that against Canelo in Las Vegas especially if you go by past judging of his fights in this City.

I like Jacobs and I think he has a fantastic story, but he has not looked that brilliant since that performance against Golovkin. Yes he has gone on to win a World Title and has won three fights since then, but Jacobs has been looking a little tired in the latter stages of his win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko which needed a Split Decision despite Jacobs putting him down in the First Round.

I am still not convinced about Jacobs' ability to take big shot or two either and he is going to be tested by Canelo. I am expecting the early Rounds to be competitive with Jacobs having the size advantage and the skill to give Canelo plenty to think about, but I do think Canelo is one of the finer body punchers out there and I am expecting the Mexican to just begin to slow down Jacobs at around the halfway mark.

Let's be honest for a moment, the most sensible selection for this is a Canelo win on points. I can see him beginning to get the better of the exchanges in the second half of the fight and I think Canelo may look the more aggressive of the two fighters on the night which is likely going to swing the judges towards him and that is not even accounting for the likely bias towards Canelo that we have seen in the past.

It would be foolish to ignore that and I do think it is going to be very difficult for Jacobs to win on the cards, but I also think there is a real chance that Canelo can do enough to force a stoppage and end any controversy calls that could come out of this one.

With Danny Jacobs showing some vulnerabilities in his recent wins and his slow down in the second half of the fight with Derevyanchenko, I do think Canelo is going to have some real success. It might be to the point where he is able to unload something unanswered in the second half of the fight once some wear has hit the Jacobs body and I do wonder if we are going to see if making the weight is affecting Jacobs too once those shots begin to land.

I think Canelo will take control of this one in the second half of the fight and like I said I think the most likely outcome is he wins on the cards. However there is that feeling I have that it might not get that far which makes it worth having a small interest on the Mexican finding the stoppage in the second half of this one.

MY PICKS: Jerwin Ancajas to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 7-12 @ 7.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2019: 5-17, - 11.44 Units (34 Units Staked, - 33.64% Yield)

Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)