French Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 9th June)

Iga Swiatek won a fourth Roland Garros title and there is every reason to believe she will end her career with the most on the WTA Tour side of the sport, although Rafael Nadal's overall record is expected to be safe.

She dominated after allowing Jasmine Paolini to find an early break, but the Men's Final is expected to be a lot more competitive on Sunday.

Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games: After making an out of court settlement regarding a trial for domestic abuse allegations, Alexander Zverev came from behind to cruise into his first French Open Final on Friday.

In seven previous Grand Slam Semi Finals, Alexander Zverev had been beaten six times so this is a big achievement for someone who might have felt the window had been closing when it comes to winning a maiden title at this level. He will need to erase memories of his only ever Grand Slam Final appearance when leading Dominic Thiem 2-0 in sets, but losing in the US Open Final in 2020.

Injury, off court issues and the German having some inconsistent performances at the business end of tournaments means it has been some wait for Alexander Zverev to return to a Slam Final. The performances here in Paris have been strong though and Zverev has also won the Rome Masters in the build up so he will not be lacking for confidence in this big match.

The opponent has won Grand Slam titles in New York City and London and Carlos Alcaraz can move into World Number 2 with a title win in Paris, meaning winning a Slam on all three surfaces used on the Tour. He will be opening Wimbledon as the defending Champion next month and this is an opportunity for the Spaniard to remind the Tour that he is still the man to beat of the next generation having had some of the shine taken away by Jannik Sinner.

The Italian was beaten in five sets in the Semi Final and Carlos Alcaraz will know that he will need to raise his level if he is going to see off Zverev in the Final.

Over the last twelve months, Carlos Alcaraz has gotten a little nearer to Alexander Zverev on the head to head with crushing wins in Madrid, at the US Open and in Indian Wells. However, during that run, Alexander Zverev holds wins over the Spaniard at the World Tour Finals and the Australian Open.

Two years ago Zverev beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Quarter Final at Roland Garros in what was an upset and there is a feeling that the underdog is a big price to win this title on Sunday.

Alexander Zverev has been serving well and that will put some pressure on Alcaraz, while the confidence will have been restored after two strong wins over Alex De Minaur and Casper Ruud. The wins at Grand Slam level means he will not be intimidated by the obvious talented player standing on the other side of the net, and this could be a really good Final.

There is a temptation in backing Zverev, but this is a Final that should need at least four sets to decide it when all is said and done.

With that in mind, the total games line looks a tad shorter than it should be- the US Open win that Carlos Alcaraz produced over Alexander Zverev last year ended in straight sets, but the other two Grand Slam meetings have gone at least four sets and needed 43 and 39 games played respectively before a winner could be determined and so backing the total to be surpassed might be the play with less stress compared with looking for a live underdog to come through.

The experience edge is surprisingly with the younger player in this one and Carlos Alcaraz will feel he can make that pay, but the form is with Alexander Zverev and the fans should be the ones who benefit the most on the day.

MY PICK: Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 22-9, + 16.98 Units (61 Units Staked, + 27.84% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2023 (June 9th)

The Women's Final at the French Open was set on Thursday and it features the World Number 1, despite a slight second set wobble, facing Karolina Muchova who has continued to surprise with a second top 10 win in the tournament.

You have to make Iga Swiatek a big favourite, but she has not been as dominant in the last couple of Rounds as earlier in Paris and there have been one or two nerves at big moments, which has been surprising considering Swiatek is a multiple time Grand Slam Champion.

I do think she will have a bit more in the tank and it would need a massive upset for Iga Swiatek to be beaten on Saturday, but the attention turns to the men's Semi Final matches on Day 13.

The first of the two Semi Final matches has to be one of the most anticipated tennis matches in 2023 when Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic finally meet in a Grand Slam. The winner is going to be a big favourite to win the French Open on Sunday, but more on the selection below.

I have been hugely frustrated by the last couple of days and the performance of the Tennis Picks.

The margins have been tight, but I have been on the wrong side of those and it has been a really poor end to the tournament.

The one positive is that the number is still in the black, but I need a solid end to the week to ensure a second Grand Slam of 2023 ending with a decent return.

Casper Ruud v Alexander Zverev: He has long been one of the better clay courters on the Tour and Alexander Zverev's most consistent Grand Slam results have come in the French Open. Some will point out that his very best result has been at the US Open when he was so close to winning a maiden Grand Slam title, but Alexander Zverev has reached the Quarter Final in Paris five times and this is the third season in a row that he is playing in the Semi Final.

No one will forget what happened to the German in the Semi Final last year when a devastating injury in a very close match against Rafael Nadal cost him several months of his career. Even in the build up to this year's French Open, Alexander Zverev had been struggling for the consistency on the clay courts of previous years with the confidence perhaps not as strong going into Roland Garros as it has been.

Winning five matches here will have rebuilt some of that shattered confidence and Alexander Zverev is looking to push ahead into his first French Open Final. The challenge is a tough one in the Semi Final as he faces Casper Ruud, the Runner Up twelve months ago and a player who also reached the US Open Final last year before coming up short against Spaniards Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz.

This only the fourth Grand Slam in which Casper Ruud has reached the second week, which is a massive surprise all things considered, and he has developed into one of the stronger clay court players on the Tour himself. The manner of his win over Holger Rune in the Quarter Final should have given the Norwegian a huge boost of confidence, while he has the mental advantage of finally beaten Alexander Zverev on the Tour in their last meeting in Miami in March 2022.

Casper Ruud admitted himself that he has not enjoyed the most productive build up to the French Open, while his numbers are stronger for the fact he has largely only been playing lower Ranked players. That is highlighted by the fact that his win over Holger Rune is only the second match against a top 20 Ranked opponent on the clay in 2023 and he has split those matches (the other ending in a loss to Rune in Rome), while Casper Ruud only holds a 15-14 all time record against top 20 Ranked opponents on clay courts.

Last year he did finish with a 5-3 record in those matches and two of those defeats were to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, but Casper Ruud will have to lift his tennis again if he is going to have a second straight shot at winning his maiden Grand Slam in Paris.

It does feel like it could be a good time to face Alexander Zverev who had lost all three top 20 matches on the clay before beating Frances Tiafoe in the Third Round. The performances in Paris have been solid, but there have been one or two signs that Alexander Zverev has perhaps peaked already in the tournament and that has been displayed with weakening service numbers.

In saying that, Casper Ruud has also not convinced behind his serve in this tournament and he can be grateful for some fortune on the Break Points in the wins over Holger Rune and Nicolas Jarry.

I don't think anyone is surprised that this is a match in which the layers are finding it very difficult to separate the two players, but I did think Casper Ruud should be going into the Semi Final as the favourite.

We know the capabilities of Alexander Zverev to serve very big, but in each of his last three matches I think he has just come off the boil at times and that could be dangerous against someone like Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has won plenty of big matches over the last twelve months compared with Alexander Zverev and that could play a mental advantage for Casper Ruud in key moments of this Semi Final.

This is going to be close and competitive, but Casper Ruud might just be a little too solid on the day and can edge his way past Alexander Zverev as the underdog.

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Novak Djokovic: There is little doubt that the match most wanted to see in the men's tournament at the French Open was between the top two players on the Tour.

The draw meant this could not happen in the Final with Novak Djokovic the World Number 3 after Wimbledon was stripped of its Ranking points last year, but he has reached the Semi Final at the French Open again. The World Number 1 and top Seed Carlos Alcaraz has done the same and this is the first time these two players will be meeting in a Grand Slam, which is quite remarkable seeing as they have combined to win the last three Slams played.

The winner is very much going to be the favourite on Sunday, but both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will have been mentally preparing for the ultimate test that the other will provide on Friday in the big Semi Final of the day.

My immediate thought is that Novak Djokovic is an absolutely massive price considering what we know about the Serb- I would be surprised if he doesn't know that he is a significant underdog and that will be an inspiration to him.

However, it is a price that I can't really get involved in and that is because of the standards that Carlos Alcaraz has set at the French Open and throughout this clay court season. The upset loss at Rome will not be remembered when you put up the title wins in Barcelona and Madrid and Carlos Alcaraz has brushed aside all opposition in Paris without breaking a sweat.

Carlos Alcaraz had won at least 50% of his return points in each of the first four wins at the French Open and that number 'dipped' to 47% in the Quarter Final destruction of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only a loss of concentration in the third set of that straight sets win saw his return numbers fall below 50% of points won for the first time in this Grand Slam and I do think the talented youngster will make things very difficult for Novak Djokovic.

It will mean Novak Djokovic needs to be on his game when it comes to the serve and he has shown in this tournament that he is getting plenty out of this side of this tennis. The serve kept him in his Quarter Final against Karen Khachanov after a slow start and Djokovic can ill-afford another to give Carlos Alcaraz any more confidence on the court.

And as strong as a return player that Novak Djokovic has been throughout his career, you do have to wonder if he has enough to deal with the way Carlos Alcaraz has been protecting his serve on the clay courts this season. The Spaniard has held 84% of his service games played against top 20 Ranked opponents prior to the French Open and in Carlos Alcaraz' wins over Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas, he has won at least 69% of service points played and only dropped serve three times as he has made comfortable progression at Roland Garros.

These two players have met just once before and that was on the clay courts of Madrid thirteen months ago- on that occasion they played out three tight, competitive sets in a match that was eventually won by Carlos Alcaraz and the Spaniard did have an edge on the return on that day.

My feeling is that we are going to see that happening in this Semi Final and I do think the clay courts will suit Carlos Alcaraz and his game compared with Novak Djokovic.

It is going to sound like a bizarre statement to make considering how good Djokovic has been on the clay, but I think he has not quite had the same impact in the last fifteen months. Anyone who has won the French Open twice before should be respected and Novak Djokovic is still playing about as well as anyone, but perhaps not as well as Carlos Alcaraz who looks to be the player to beat on this surface right now.

A player like Novak Djokovic is not going to be worried about the raw numbers, but I can't overlook how much stronger Carlos Alcaraz has looked on the clay in 2023 and here at the French Open. The 22 time Grand Slam Champion will have his moments, but I do think some will feel this is a 'passing of the torch' kind of moment with Carlos Alcaraz doing enough to win this one in four sets and that should see him cover this handicap mark.

Novak Djokovic is 6-5 in French Open Semi Finals in his career and his losses have been against Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem. His experience will mean he is unlikely to allow Carlos Alcaraz to have anything easy, while the latter is just 3-3 against top 10 opponents in Grand Slam events and was beaten in four sets by Alexander Zverev here at the French Open in the Quarter Final last season.

That does provide some pause for thought, but Carlos Alcaraz had not won a Grand Slam title before losing to Zverev and his level has gone up from 2022.

I don't doubt that Novak Djokovic will be pumped up to make a statement, but it feels like it is Carlos Alcaraz' time and he can move a step closer to a second Grand Slam title with an important win on Friday.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud to Win @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Update: 38-31, + 1.98 Units (138 Units Staked, + 1.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 9th)

Wet weather has forced a number of matches to be postponed until Thursday and it is vital for all of the tournaments being played that they get back on track.

Some of those events are starting earlier than usual in a bid to avoid having players forced to play twice in the same day to ensure we have a Sunday finish. The weather looks very good at all of the events going into the weekend, but Thursday could be another challenging day for players who have to wait around and hope there are enough windows of play to get their matches completed.

Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Alexander Bublik: After deciding to skip the majority of the clay court season, Andy Murray is back on the grass courts where he was once as good as anybody on the Tour. At this stage of his career, Andy Murray is no longer one of the favourites to win Wimbledon, but he does feel he can still have a big impact on a surface that is largely unfamiliar to many on the Tour.

With that in mind, Andy Murray has chosen to play as many tournaments as he can on the grass and that included taking part in a Challenger event in Surbiton last week. He reached the Semi Final there before a close defeat to Denis Kudla, but it also served as a reminder that Murray is not the force he once was on the Tour in general.

Needing as much court time as he can find, Andy Murray has decided to head out of Britain for a grass court appearance and reached the Second Round in Stuttgart behind a strong win. He will be the first to admit that the level of opponent moves up significantly in this Round, but Andy Murray will be familiar with what Alexander Bublik can bring to the table having played him twice already in 2022.

Those two previous matches have been split with one win apiece, but this match is being played on a grass court on which Andy Murray may feel he has a real edge.

However, Alexander Bublik has a game that can be dangerous on the grass courts and he was a very comfortable winner over the aforementioned Denis Kudla in the First Round thanks to the serve. He won 76% of points played behind serve and that built up the scoreboard pressure that eventually saw Bublik crack through and win in straight sets.

Alexander Bublik enjoyed a couple of solid grass court runs in 2021 too having held 88% of the service games played in the eleven matches played on the surface and I do think he will go as far as his serve can take him. It helps build scoreboard pressure and makes up for what has been a pretty limited return game.

There is enough from the return to give Andy Murray one or two things to think about, especially as the former Wimbledon Champion admitted he would like to serve better after his First Round win over Christoper O'Connell. In saying that, Andy Murray has been able to hold 90% of his service games in the two matches against Alexander Bublik in 2022 and will feel he can generate enough returns in play to showcase his superior grass court nous.

It certainly won't be an easy match for either player with the serve likely to be crucial to their chances, but I do think Andy Murray can win the big points this time thanks to his previous grass court appearances. Another first set tie-breaker would not be a surprise, but Andy Murray can nose in front and go on and win this Second Round match as he continues his build towards Wimbledon.

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics over 22.5 games: There had been very little suggestion that Hubert Hurkacz was going to be a genuine title contender going into Wimbledon 2021.

He had limited success on the grass courts through his career to that point and Hubert Hurkacz had been beaten in his opening match in Stuttgart and Halle, but he caught fire when he set foot in SW19. A run to the Semi Final is one thing, but Hubert Hurkacz enjoyed victories over the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer before losing in four sets in the Semi Final against Matteo Berrettini and the World Number 13 will be feeling much more confident playing on the grass courts in 2022 than he would have been going into 2021.

In saying that, I do think Hubert Hurkacz has to win the fine margins if he is going to have successes on the surface. We know the serve is a potent weapon for Hurkacz on the faster surfaces and he has shown improvements behind that shot in 2018, 2019 and 2021, while he has always held a huge amount of service games on the grass courts.

However, Hubert Hurkacz has struggled on the return and managed to break in 17% of return games played on the grass in 2021, which is an improvement on previous years. That isn't a number that will intimidate too many and you have to feel that Hurkacz will be under pressure to play perfect tie-breakers if he is going to replicate the success of Wimbledon 2021.

I do think Hurkacz could have a bit more of an opportunity against Marton Fucsovics, even though the former Boys' Singles Winner at Junior Wimbledon is comfortable on the grass courts.

The Hungarian is now 30 years old and he has struggled for consistency on the grass courts with a serve that can be vulnerable when offering up too many second serves to attack. While the return of serve is pretty effective on the grass courts, Marton Fucsovics has held only 79% of his service games on a surface which should favour the server and that is a concern when the scoreboard pressure is ramped up in this kind of match.

Marton Fucsovics did reach the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and he was a strong First Round winner in Stuttgart so he should not be lacking for confidence. The serve worked well in the First Round and that will be encouraging as Marton Fucsovics takes on an opponent he has beaten in their two previous matches, although those were played in 2018 and Fucsovics and Hubert Hurkacz may have crossed one another in terms of ability since then.

Both players should feel they can serve well enough to push the other and I would not be surprised to see this match needing at least one tie-breaker to begin to separate them. The limited returning of Hubert Hurkacz could mean this is a match that is dominated by each server and I think they can combine to surpass this total games line set.

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker over 22.5 games: A disappointing French Open is behind Stefanos Tsitsipas and there is little time to regret the relatively early defeat in the second Grand Slam of the season. Despite being in the weaker half of the draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas seemed to struggle with the pressure and he has dropped into World Number 5 after the tournament was concluded.

Now he has to go into the grass court season with the short build towards the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon and this has not been a very enjoyable time of the year for the Greek player.

The 2019 season on the grass has been the exception to the rule, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has largely had average numbers and results on the surface and his First Round defeat at Wimbledon last year was concerning. He may have been undercooked for the grass court Slam after finishing Runner Up at Roland Garros and not taking in any warm up events before Wimbledon began, but this year is looking to be different.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will get his Stuttgart campaign going in the Second Round having received a Bye in the First Round as the top Seed in the draw, while he is expected to play in Halle next week.

His serve is effective on the grass courts and I do think that will give him a chance to put wins on the board, but the big challenge for Stefanos Tsitsipas is improving the return. It is a part of his game that has shown some improvement on the hard courts, but Dominic Stricker can put Tsitsipas under pressure with his own serve that helped him through a difficult First Round match.

Dominic Stricker has served pretty well in his limited grass court matches and upset Hubert Hurkacz here in Stuttgart twelve months ago. He is facing an opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas who has broken in just 14% of return games in his career grass court matches and who will have some adjustments to make in his first grass court match in 2022.

The return game has been an issue for Dominic Stricker on this surface too and I do think this could be a relatively tight couple of sets played with the serve expected to be on top. If the match was played later in the grass court season, Stefanos Tsitsipas may be expected to really get on top of the return, but this may take some time to adjust on Thursday in the Second Round in Stuttgart and we may need a tie-breaker, or even two, to separate the two on the day.

The total game line isn't short, but it looks in a good place for these players to combine and surpass with the serves expected to be on top and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker Over 22.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 0.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 3.55% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2021 (June 9th)

Two of the four Semi Finals have been put together after a fun Day 10 at the French Open, but the remaining Semi Finalists will be looking to book their places in the last four on Wednesday.

This looks another day for some strong tennis, and I think the favourites to win the title on Saturday and Sunday will be the player that comes out of the top half of both the Men's and Women's tournament being played at the French Open.

We also have more grass court tennis being played in Stuttgart and Nottingham, the first grass court tournaments to be played in a couple of years as the short run to Wimbledon has already begun. A lot of big names are missing, but it is a good chance for those involved this week to get a head-start on the top players on the Tour by earning some experience on their return to the surface.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Matteo Berrettini: After being given a real scare in the Fourth Round by one Italian, Novak Djokovic now has to face the top player from that nation in order to secure a spot in the Semi Final at Roland Garros for yet another season. There was never a time he can say he played poorly in the Fourth Round win over Lorenzo Musetti, but Novak Djokovic may be a little frustrated that he was so loose on the big points in the first two sets which allowed his opponent to build a 2-0 lead in sets.

The moment he lost the second set Tie-Breaker, Novak Djokovic took control of the match and long before any injury issues were raised by Musetti who was forced to pull out when just two games away from losing anyway.

It does mean you can put a slight asterisk on the numbers, but Djokovic was very strong in the first two sets too and a similar level may give him every chance of not only winning this match, but making it a lot more comfortable than the last Round was. Novak Djokovic may feel that Lorenzo Musetti came into the match with nothing to lose, but expectations are much grander for the 25 year old Matteo Berrettini who has surged into the top ten of the World Rankings over the last eighteen months.

I will admit that I am a big fan of the Berrettini overall game, although there are still some weaknesses he will want to address if he is really going to win a Grand Slam. The return of serve is still a work in progress, but Matteo Berrettini should be very fresh for this match having received a walkover in the last Round when Roger Federer withdrew from the tournament.

Matteo Berrettini has played really well in Paris over the first week and the big serve and forehand combination has worked wonderfully for him. The Italian has dropped serve just twice in the French Open and it has allowed him to take chances on the return with at least ten break points created in each win, although you do have to factor in the level of those opponents.

This is a huge step up in class and it can't be ignored that Matteo Berrettini has built his strong clay court season in 2021 by beating those players lower down the World Ranking. Credit him for that, but also note he is 0-2 against top 20 Ranked opponents on the clay and that is the next step he needs to take in his career if he is really going to be challenging for the biggest prizes on the Tour.

Both defeats to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev have been relatively comfortable after a tight first set and you do have to feel that Novak Djokovic will build plenty of pressure with his return of serve. The World Number 1 has been playing at a very high level in the French Open and his return should be able to hurt Berrettini, especially with the backhand being largely predictable and attackable.

This match should be much tighter than the one they played at the ATP World Tour Finals in November 2019 which Novak Djokovic dominated for the loss of three games, but I do think the Serb will get on top of Matteo Berrettini over the two plus hours they are going to spend on the court.

As good as the clay court season has been for Berrettini, his numbers shrink drastically when he has come up against some of the top names on the Tour and now he is facing the best. Novak Djokovic is arguably the second best clay courter behind Rafael Nadal too and I think his return and improving serve will be too much for a second Italian in succession.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman + 9.5 games v Rafael Nadal: It is never easy going up against Rafael Nadal on a clay court and not when he is picking up his form as he looks to have done in the last three Rounds. While the long-time Champion in Roland Garros will feel there is still room for improvement on the serve, Rafael Nadal's serve is putting opponents under significant pressure and he will be confident of doing the same in this one.

Unsurprisingly Rafael Nadal is a big favourite to beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who had a tougher time in the Fourth Round than his own straight sets victory will suggest. The Argentinian will at least feel he has come into this match in as good a shape as he can though having needed a little over nine hours to make his way through the first four opponents and that at least gives Schwartzman some kind of chance for the upset.

It is a chance, but a very small one in reality despite the fact that it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who won when these two met in Rome last year. They did also meet in the French Open when Rafael Nadal recorded a very comfortable win over this rival, but that was also off the back of an epic match that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman had won against Dominic Thiem and even then he was able to keep things relatively competitive.

The main reason it is almost impossible to believe an upset will occur outside of an injury is because Rafael Nadal has loved playing return games against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. The Spaniard has a 10-1 record against Schwartzman and has won 47% of the return points played and broken in 44% of return games played meaning he is pretty much keeping this opponent under pressure every time he steps up to the line to serve.

In their six meetings on clay, those numbers are slightly better in favour of Rafael Nadal and their two meetings at the French Open has resulted wide margin wins for the top player on this surface.

While saying all that, this handicap looks plenty wide and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman can at least make his mark on the match. His service numbers might not suggest so, but Schwartzman has been able to win 40% of points on the Rafael Nadal serve in their two meetings at the French Open and that has led to breaks of serve in 25% of return games.

Rafael Nadal was broken four times in the last Round against Jannik Sinner so there is a potential opening for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman when getting this many games behind him.

The Spaniard has won all five of their Grand Slam meetings, but the widest margin was nine games between the players. That happened once, eight game margins happened twice and Rafael Nadal won the other two by seven and six game margins.

Another 'big' win is likely for Rafael Nadal, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is fresh enough to cause enough problems and scrape through enough service games to avoid a real hammering.

Barbora Krejcikova v Cori Gauff: The first of the Women's Quarter Final matches that take place on Day 11 at the French Open features two players who have taken their hot form on the clay courts onto those in Paris this week. Both Cori Gauff and Barbora Krejcikova are going to be experiencing new nerves as they play in a maiden Quarter Final and the layers are more confident in the 17 year old American to defeat Krejcikova.

However, it is not a deep confidence and I think Barbora Krejcikova has every chance of becoming the third player in the Women's draw that wins her Quarter Final as the underdog. She is a much slighter underdog than both Tamara Zidansek and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova were on Tuesday, while Barbora Krejcikova has played some of her best tennis on the clay courts over the last couple of years as a Singles player.

Cori Gauff matches up pretty well on her numbers in 2021 with her surprising successes on the clay courts despite the American suggesting she is still a work in progress on the surface. That hasn't looked the case in the last three sets played at the French Open as she has comfortably beaten Jennifer Brady and Ons Jabeur, the latter in particular looking in pretty good shape before being outplayed comprehensively.

The serve has been really working well for Gauff which is hugely important to any success she is going to earn at this tournament, while it has enabled her to step back and take some big swings at the return to build the momentum behind her. The younger player has not dropped serve since the Second Round, but Barbora Krejcikova is no slouch when it comes to her own service performance and it has felt slightly more consistent than Gauff's.

I do think both players will have success serving and this match is going to come down to the fine margins, but before the tournament was played Cori Gauff's numbers against top 50 opponents had not been as nearly as impressive as the ones that Barbora Krejcikova has been producing. I believe that could have the latter feeling pretty good about this match up, although Gauff has had an ability to outplay the numbers by really operating at a very high level when the key points come up.

Another point to note is that Barbora Krejcikova has looked the more comfortable on the way to build return points on the clay and the Czech player has been able to create more break points in the tournament. Her Doubles success should mean Krejcikova is also the more confident if this comes down to a game of skulls at the net and I think the slight underdog can reach her maiden Semi Final in what should be a really fun match to watch.

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Maria Sakkari: Both defending Champions from Roland Garros are still involved in the 2021 tournament and I don't think there will be a big rush to oppose either Rafael Nadal or Iga Swiatek from picking up the titles again this weekend.

The numbers produced by Iga Swiatek are very intimidating for opponents who will likely know how well she has been playing on the clay courts for months now. The 20 year old looks like someone who is going to have a lot of success in Paris in the years ahead and even when she has been pushed this week, Iga Swiatek has found the right responses to make relatively serene progress in a draw that has seen the Seeds tumble at an alarming rate.

This is anything but a walkover for Swiatek on Wednesday when she takes on Maria Sakkari who has reached her maiden Quarter Final as a Singles player at Grand Slam level. There was a time when the Greek player was one that I thought was largely overachieving and needed to make improvements if she was going to build up the World Rankings, but Maria Sakkari is up to a career high World Ranking and her numbers have improved to underline the progress being made.

However, Maria Sakkari will know how much she has to step up her level if she is going to beat the defending Champion in her current form. Wins over Elise Mertens and Sofia Kenin are solid ones to give Sakkari some confidence, but she will need to get a few more cheaper points from the serve if she is going to put Iga Swiatek under pressure.

Iga Swiatek was pushed pretty hard by Marta Kostyuk in the Fourth Round, but even then the scoreboard shows a relatively comfortable win for the Pole. It says something about the standard she has been setting on the clay that it was considered a tough win, but Iga Swiatek created the break points and she found a way to win enough of the key points to land a good win.

The clay court performances from the French Open last year through to the Quarter Final from Iga Swiatek have been extremely good and I do think she is going to have too much for the remaining players in the draw. This won't be an easy match for her, but Maria Sakkari has not really found the same kind of consistency and I think the Swiatek return game will eventually take control of this Quarter Final and move clear.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman + 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Update: 44-40, - 2.94 Units (168 Units Staked, - 1.75% Yield)

French Open Day 15 Tennis Picks 2019- Men's Final (June 9th)

Ever since Ashleigh Barty returned to tennis following a spell out of the game to take up professional cricket the Australian has been an improving player week by week on the Tour.

I still did not foresee a French Open Champion in the making going into this tournament, but Barty is a deserved winner and I think she has the potential to kick on and become a threat at the other Slams remaining in 2019.

A lot of the first time Slam winners have struggled to deal with the expectation and new found fame that has come with becoming a Grand Slam Champion, but I think Barty will have learnt a lot about herself when removing herself from professional tennis when things got on top of her when she was younger. It should stand her in good stead to back up her position as a Slam Champion and World Number 2 and I actually think Barty is a much better grass court player than a clay court player as we head into the grass court season.


We will next see Ash Barty out there in a couple of weeks as she gets a bit of time to rest and digest what she achieved in Paris and deservedly so. However a short lead up into Wimbledon means she will want to get some grass court tennis under her feet and I imagine she will be involved in the big event that is played in Birmingham.

Before the official move onto the grass courts is made on Monday with the start of the main Tour events on the surface we do have to conclude the French Open with the Men's Final.

Rafael Nadal takes on Dominic Thiem for a second year in a row for the title and you can read my pick from the Final below.

It has been a good, but not great tournament for the Picks with a relatively poor end to the event preventing some really strong numbers being produced. However I can't ever be overly worried when a profit is produced to add to the 2019 successes as the clay court season moves into the grass court portion of the year.

Those grass events begin as soon as Monday if you are not counting the Challenger event that was played in Surbiton last week, but for now I will concentrate on trying to finish the French Open with hopefully one more win.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Dominic Thiem: The Men's Final at the French Open is a repeat of the 2018 Final and it does feel it is going to be a real challenge for Dominic Thiem to really turn things around against Rafael Nadal.

The Austrian made history on Saturday by winning the interrupted Semi Final against Novak Djokovic and becoming the first player from that country to reach multiple Grand Slam Finals. Twenty-four years ago Thomas Muster won the French Open, but Thiem will be looking to match his compatriot although he has a tougher challenge than Muster did.

You have to credit Muster for beating a former French Open Champion in Michael Chang to take the title home in 1995, but Rafael Nadal is no mere former Champion. The Spaniard has dominated the French Open ever since he first played here and has written his name into history as being the finest player to play on the red dirt.

To be fair to Thiem he has beaten Nadal in four of their eleven previous matches on the clay courts including in Barcelona a couple of months ago. The win over Djokovic may have underlined his status as the second best player on clay, but Thiem has to overcome the tiredness of playing three long sets on Saturday and beating Nadal in a best of five set situation is not something he has done previously.

While the serve has been a potent weapon for Thiem on the clay courts, he is holding just 68% of his service games played on the surface against Nadal. This is the fourth meeting at Roland Garros and Thiem's holding numbers drop to 51% of service games played and it does feel like the kind of match where he will be under immense pressure if fatigue is an issue for him.

Dominic Thiem is yet to win a set against Nadal in Paris and in the last two years he has been beaten by the Spaniard which has to play on the mind. He has struggled to get into the Nadal service games and that has led to Thiem breaking in just 10% of return game played at the French Open and his return numbers against Nadal on the clay are not much better in general with breaks of serve in 16% of return games played.

Rafael Nadal continues to play at a high level on the clay courts, even if he has not matched 2017 and 2018, and he is performing better than his Austrian opponent. His level at the French Open has seen him outperform Thiem in every Round and I do think it is a big ask for the underdog considering the time spent on court and the lack of rest compared with the player who was strongly favoured to win the tournament before it all began.

Even the win in Barcelona might not have a huge impact on proceedings as Thiem beat Nadal in lead up events in 2017 and 2018 and still failed to put a dent on the Spaniard when it came to the French Open. In the last two years, the six sets played between these players have seen Nadal come through with a 6-4 scoreline (twice), 6-3 scoreline (twice), 6-2 and 6-0.

While I can see the adrenaline keeping Thiem competitive early on, at some stage the fatigue and the Nadal superiority on the surface will tell as it did when the Spaniard beat Roger Federer in the Semi Final. The conditions might not be 100% ideal for Nadal, but he should still be far too good on the day with the way the tournament has broken down and I think he can cover a big number.

The Rafael Nadal serve has been consistently strong throughout the tournament, but it will be the pressure exerted from the return of serve that can break down Dominic Thiem. With the lefty being able to produce his biggest shot into the Thiem backhand to open things up, I think Rafael Nadal will be the French Open Champion again behind another strong win over the Austrian.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 59-50, + 8.31 Units (217 Units Staked, + 3.83% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2018- Jeff Horn vs Terence Crawford (June 9th)

He's Back.

The Lineal Heavyweight Champion, which still means something whether the mainstream media want to admit it or not, is back from an almost three year lay off and Tyson Fury looks to have the motivation to go back to the top of the mountain.

For now it is all about shaking off the ring rust for Fury who is on the comeback trail against an overmatched Sefer Seferi. Any fight for the World Title has to wait but it is great to see Fury back although the big question is how long, if ever, it will take for Fury to reach the kind of standard he set in bamboozling Wladimir Klitschko in Germany.

It is a big fight night on Saturday but you have to be frustrated with two American cards being placed on the same date which means fight fans have to pick and choose what they want to watch. Of course we do have the chance to record one card and watch the other, but it is frustrating when promoters put on two good looking fights on the same night when noting a couple of weekends where there isn't any top boxing being put on.

On Saturday it is Jeff Horn vs Terence Crawford on one card and on another we have a potential 'Fight of the Year' candidate when Leo Santa Cruz faces Abnes Mares for a second time.

Earlier on Terry Flanagan goes to become a two time World Champion when taking on Maurice Hooker in Manchester while Jermell Charlo is back in action to defend his WBC Light-Middleweight Title which could lead to some huge fights later in the year in what is becoming a pretty stacked Division.

Tyson Fury vs Sefer Seferi

Some of the criticisms from the likes of Tony Bellew for Tyson Fury's comeback fight are almost laughable as if they expect the former World Heavyweight Champion to pick a top 10 contender having been out of the ring for almost three years.

In truth Fury needs to get some fights under the belt and he will be continuing to manage his weight which still has some way to go for the Lineal Champion to really feel like he is back to peak fitness.

This shouldn't be a big concern for Fury in this bout with Sefer Seferi who hasn't been anywhere near someone as good as Fury. It is no surprise that Fury has built up his opponent by even uttering Evander Holyfield's name in the same sentence as Seferi's but the only thing I see those two fighters having in common is 'The Real Deal' nickname.

In absolute truth all Fury is hoping for is that Seferi can offer some durability and he himself has predicted a Fifth Round stoppage here.

Fury isn't someone who will beat you with one punch concussive power but much depends on how much Seferi really believes in his own ability and I am not convinced he does. I think the fight may end a little sooner than Fury himself has predicted and I am not sure we will learn a lot about him here.

It's still good to have Fury back in a Heavyweight Division which looks to be thriving.

Jermell Charlo vs Austin Trout

This is the second time Austin Trout will have fought Charlo, although this time it is Jermall's twin brother Jermell Charlo who faces Trout at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

For most this is merely a stay busy fight for Charlo who puts his WBC Light-Middleweight Title on the line knowing there are some big money fights to come if he can defend it on Saturday.

The unification with Jarrett Hurd looks to be on the back burner for now, but the likes of Kell Brook, Jaime Munguia can offer big challenges for Charlo later in the year. Brook may be the target knowing the money Eddie Hearn can offer for that one and so Charlo has to make sure he doesn't lose his unbeaten record in an upset.

Austin Trout has proven to be a tough fighter having been the last one to take Jermall Charlo the distance, but he was beaten up and broken down by Jarrett Hurd since then. He is still slick enough to give Charlo problems early in this one, but Jermell Charlo has stopped his last four opponents and I think this is a chance for him to make a statement by matching what Hurd was able to do against the former Champion.

No one can dispute Trout's toughness especially when you think he has been the distance with Jermall Charlo and Canelo Alvarez, but he is older now and knows how to be stopped. With the punching power displayed by both Charlo Twins in their most recent fights I think Trout could be pulled out by his corner in this one as he was against Hurd, although the latter is a big powerful Light-Middleweight fighter and will be a tough out for anyone.

I do just wonder if Trout's best days are behind him now and I think Charlo has picked him as someone he can make a big statement against. While the odds on favourite 'method of victory' is Charlo winning on points, I think he may get a chance to show off some power and I think he can catch Trout with something big which hurts him.

That may see Charlo punish a tough Trout for a few Rounds before the corner decide their man has had enough for the evening and Charlo can make it five stoppages in a row.

Leo Santa Cruz vs Abner Mares

The first time these two got together in the brilliant Super Featherweight Division it was a classic fight and now they have the rematch in Los Angeles which should produce a fiery atmosphere for both fighters.

Abner Mares has bounced back from the defeat to Leo Santa Cruz by winning a couple of Decisions to get back into this position, and it was picking up the regular WBA strap that has given him the opportunity to have the rematch with the Super WBA Champion.

Santa Cruz has been much more active than Mares in the time since their first fight which includes two very tough fights with Carl Frampton which were split. Plenty have been hoping for a rubber bout between those two fighters but Santa Cruz has shown little willing to do that and has moved away from any potential fight in Northern Ireland which looked to have been the deal between him and Frampton.

The first fight was a very exciting affair, but Mares ran out of steam which means there could be more of a chess fight develop when they meet in Los Angeles. I am not sure that is going to be good enough for Mares to change the outcome as I think Santa Cruz is the better boxer of the two.

While both feel they have shown improvement since the first fight in 2015, Santa Cruz is the younger man and that should also make a difference as he keeps Mares at bay.

I don't doubt Mares has his moments and I am sure it is going to be a close fight on the cards with the way the two approach things. However I think Santa Cruz will be the slicker and able to control things from a distance and it is going to be difficult for Mares to find the right formula to maintain the tank and also put Santa Cruz under exceptional pressure.

It should still be a fun fight and I think it will be close on the cards, but I am looking for Santa Cruz to edge things and set himself up for some more intriguing bouts with the likes of Josh Warrington, Carl Frampton for a third time or the one most want to see against Gary Russell Jr.

Jeff Horn vs Terence Crawford

It has been eleven months since Jeff Horn stunned Manny Pacquiao with a controversial Decision win in front of his watching fans in Australia. Ever since then Horn has been fighting to command the respect of the fight fans as well as his fellow professionals and he won't have a better chance to announce himself as a legitimate contender in the loaded Welterweight Division than by winning this fight.

He takes on one of the pound for pound kings in Terence Crawford who is moving up from Light-Welterweight after unifying the Division.

The move up has got the fans salivating about potential bouts with the likes of Errol Spence and the winner of the upcoming Danny Garcia/Shawn Porter bout which is set to go in August. Terence Crawford himself is not looking past the bout with Jeff Horn although he is a huge favourite against a fighter who has been seen as someone who has got 'lucky' to be in the position he is in.

Crawford is going to be naturally the smaller man so it is up to Horn to try and pressure him and rough up the American, although I am not sure the referee will let him get away with the same type of game plan as he enjoyed against Pacquiao.

Even then Pacquiao, who has not shown considerable power in his latter years, almost stopped Horn in a tremendous Ninth Round. Age prevented the former pound for pound king from really taking over from there, but Crawford is not someone who is likely to run out of gas and instead I think he will be able to take Horn out there.

I am favouring Crawford to find a way to get this to a finish and six of the last seven fighters have not been able to go the distance against him. Yes Horn is a bigger man and may take more punishment, but I think Crawford will begin wearing him down after the first three Rounds and then really take over the fight by putting a beating on a fighter who will keep coming forward.

Some have compared this to when Ricky Hatton took on Floyd Mayweather and I have a feeling that Horn's work will be stymied by the refereeing like Hatton's was. If that is the case I have no doubt that Horn will still continue to push forward and try and change the way the fight is going and that could lead to Crawford picking him off and eventually stopping him at some point in the latter stages of this fight.

I did have a slight feeling this might be a coming out party for Crawford in a new Division by blowing past Horn, but I think the Australian will show toughness for the first half before being put away.

MY PICKS: Tyson Fury Win Between 3-4 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

Jermell Charlo to Win by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leo Santa Cruz to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Terence Crawford to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2018 Update: 14-31, - 1.37 Units (68 Units Staked, - 2.01% Yield)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (June 9-11)

The final game of the 2016/17 season for many football players in Europe will be played between Friday and Sunday this week as one last round of World Cup Qualifiers are scheduled.

For most it will then mean at least two months before any competitive football is played and a chance to go on their holidays before reporting back to their clubs in July.

I will have a number of picks from the Qualifiers which are to be played over the next three days which you can read below.


Andorra v Hungary Pick: When you see a match like this on the coupon most will immediately be wondering by how many goals will Hungary be able to beat Andorra. That is a reasonable way to begin when you think Andorra had lost 35 home Qualifiers in a row before the goalless draw with the Faroe Islands, but it may also be overestimating this current Hungary squad.

There is no doubt that Andorra do struggle to just match the better teams they face, but they have only suffered narrow losses to Latvia (0-1) and Switzerland (1-2) at home which suggests they can make life difficult for Hungary.

Add in the fact that Hungary have already failed to win in the Faroe Islands in this Group and had narrow wins against the likes of the Faroe Islands and Finland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers as well as one over Latvia in this Group. Hungary haven't won an away Qualifier by more than two goals in any of their last 13 away Qualifiers since beating Andorra 0-5 here.

That might encourage some to back Hungary for a big win here, but they have not been in good form since being beaten in the Euro 2016 Finals and I think Hungary will be content with any kind of win. Andorra's improvement means backing Hungary to win by either a one goal or two goal margin here at odds against can be taken on.


Gibraltar v Cyprus Pick: There won't be many times that Cyprus are such a big favourite to win an away Qualifier, but you can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from this Friday.

They simply don't want to give a lot away with Gibraltar who have been losing plenty of games at this level and who have also conceded goals for fun at home. While Cyprus have lost their 2 away World Cup Qualifiers, this is a national team who have won at Bosnia-Herzegovina, Andorra and Israel during the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

Gibraltar have lost heavily to the likes of Georgia (0-3) and Latvia (0-5) at home, while they were also beaten by a couple of goals when hosting Estonia. The Faroe Islands have also won by a three goal margin here and so I am going to back Cyprus to cover the Asian Handicap.

The only Qualifier Gibraltar have lost by less than three goals was the 3-1 defeat in Cyprus, but I can see Cyprus at least matching that margin again. With Gibraltar likely to be more attack minded at home, I can see Cyprus winning by a slightly larger margin this time and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Latvia v Portugal Pick: They might not always have been known for the clinical finishing in the final third, but Portugal have been hammering home the goals since their 2-0 loss in Switzerland in this World Cup Qualifying Group. Portugal have now scored 19 goals and conceded just 1 in their 4 World Cup Qualifier wins and that is a big reason they are favoured to win in Latvia by a comfortable margin.

That is an easy decision for the oddsmakers when you think Latvia have lost 5 straight home Qualifiers including both in this Group. However they have rarely been completely outclassed in front of their own fans and that factors into my pick for this fixture.

Latvia have only been beaten by more than three goals at home in 1 of their last 39 home Qualifiers and even that was in a game where they had a man sent off after just 11 minutes. On the other hand, Portugal's 0-6 win over Faroe Islands in this Group is the only 1 in 14 away Qualifiers that they have won by more than a two goal margin.

Now I have to respect the way Portugal have been playing and scoring goals in this Group and also the way Latvia have struggled. That still doesn't mean I am expecting Portugal to win this one by four or more and I think you can look to Dutch them winning by two or three goal margins to provide an odds against return.

Maybe Cristiano Ronaldo brings his Champions League form into this one and helps blow away Latvia, but I think the home team can remain competitive enough to avoid a real hammering.


Sweden v France Pick: I was a little surprised to see France at odds on to win this World Cup Qualifier, but that just indicates where Sweden are during their transition from the Zlatan Ibrahimovic era.

Sweden have played well in recent games and they have played well during the World Cup Qualifier Group which makes them a danger to France. The side have been unbeaten in 5 home Qualifiers, but they haven't played too many teams with the quality the French will bring to Stockholm.

The respect the layers have given to France may have come from the fact they have won 0-1 in the Netherlands but you can't ignore the fact they have won 3 of their last 7 away Qualifiers. They also don't have to push for the win here as they will remain firmly in control of the Group as long as France don't lose this game.

France do have a good record in Sweden over the years with 3 wins from their last 6 visits here, but I think the home side can battle for a result here. I would be surprised if Sweden were able to beat a team with the kind of talent France have, especially when France know the importance of avoiding a loss.

A small interest is warranted on this Qualifier finishing in a draw which may just be a result that both Sweden and France will ultimately be happy with and I will back that to happen.


Azerbaijan v Northern Ireland Pick: There is much on the line for both Azerbaijan and Northern Ireland on Saturday in the last World Cup Qualifier until September with the winning team likely to feel they can do enough to finish behind Germany in the Group.

The onus is on Azerbaijan more than Northern Ireland as they have already lost in Northern Ireland earlier in the Group and trail by 3 points. For Northern Ireland even a point here would be considered a positive as they look to secure a Play Off spot in the section.

We know that is likely the way Michael O'Neill will approach the fixture hoping that Northern Ireland can steal the points. He will make them tough to beat and try to frustrate the home team into mistakes, and Northern Ireland did win 3 of their 5 away Qualifiers in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group.

I can understand why Northern Ireland have been set as the favourite with that in mind, especially as Azerbaijan can be vulnerable at home. However Azerbaijan have also shown some toughness at times with decent results against nations like Russia and Croatia, while they have also beaten Norway here in the Group.

I think this match is going to be close, but I think Northern Ireland are good enough to avoid defeat. That could set them up nicely for the double header with San Marino and Czech Republic in September, but I think Northern Ireland will have to settle for a positive point here.

A small interest in the draw is where my money will be going in this one this weekend.


Scotland v England Pick: If you believe the bookmakers rarely get things wrong, you would probably understand why England are the favourites to win this match in Scotland. However they look plenty short to me despite the positive results in the Group and I think Scotland are going to give England plenty to think about.

Of course this is not a vintage Scotland squad with many of their players no longer competing for places at the very top clubs in the Premier League like we have seen over the last twenty years. The players at Celtic play for a big club, but not against competition of the level that England can send to the field.

In saying that, this is as close to a 'English style derby' you can get in international football and we have seen 'lesser' teams able to match up and compete with those teams that should be much stronger on paper. Scotland should most certainly be inspired from the fans in Hampden Park who would love nothing more than to beat England.

Scotland have played well in Qualifiers in front of their own fans and only Germany have recorded a win here, after an absolute battle, over the last 8 Qualifiers in Scotland. They have shown heart to earn a draw with a decent nation like Poland too and Scotland may be the first team to score against England in the Group.

England had won 6 away Qualifiers in a row before the goalless draw with Slovenia and they have shown defensive toughness in those games. They have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 7 away Qualifiers and so the layers have placed some big prices for goals in this one.

I think the layers may have got that wrong though with Scotland and England recent games ending up being high-scoring ones. Scotland can certainly trouble England here, while the latter will believe their quality can tell at the end.

I did consider backing England to win by a couple of goals at least, but Scotland have raised their game at home against the better nations they have faced and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out.


Slovenia v Malta Pick: No one is going to be rushing out to back Malta to win this one considering their generally poor run of results, especially when playing away from home.

Slovenia winning the three points won't surprise anyone, but I do think Malta have shown they can be very competitive at that has meant wide losses have not been as frequent as you may believe.

Only 3 of their last 17 away Qualifiers have seen Malta lose by three or more goals. In this World Cup Qualifying Group, Malta have lost 2-0 in England and Lithuania, while in the last European Championship Qualifying Group Malta were beaten 2-0 in Croatia and 1-0 in Italy.

This Slovenia team are also not one who are going to blow opponents away and so I think it may pay out to back the home team to win by either a one or two goal margin. 6 of their last 8 home Qualifier wins have come by that margin and Malta might be able to make life difficult enough as they have for those nations I have mentioned.

It would be a big upset if Slovenia were not able to turn this Qualifier into three points and I will look to Dutch the two margins mentioned which pays out at odds against.


Poland v Romania Pick: This is a big match for Romania to try and peg back Poland who look to be running away with the Group and I am not sure they are going to be able to do that. Poland have been scoring goals for fun at home and they have become a really dangerous team to visit with 6 wins from their last 7 home Qualifiers.

That includes wins over the likes of Germany and Denmark and the Romania run of 7 away Qualifiers is under threat.

When you look at the teams Romania have played in that time, they don't really match up to what Poland are capable of doing. Greece, Finland, Northern Ireland, Hungary, Faroe Islands, Armenia and Kazakhstan make up that unbeaten run for Romania, but Poland would be considered stronger than all of those and I expect them to show that this weekend.

Romania have also failed to score in their last 3 World Cup Qualifiers and I do believe Poland are going to be capable of not only winning, but winning by more than the one goal margin to cover this Asian Handicap.


Finland v Ukraine Pick: In a Group that contains four nations who all will truly believe they are good enough to Qualify for the World Cup Finals, the games against the bottom two nations cannot afford to be overlooked.

That is what Ukraine have to remind themselves as dropped points here in Finland would really ramp up the pressure in chasing down the nations above them.

Croatia have shown the way with a victory here, although Ukraine have not had the best away Qualifiers in recent seasons. They did beat the two bottom teams in their Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but Ukraine are a hard working team who might not necessarily have the quality to break down a resilient team if they are not able to do the same as Croatia and break down the door early.

Finland have also simply not been that strong at home and only a late goal against Northern Ireland prevented them losing all 3 home games in the last set of Qualifiers against nations who made it to France for the Euro 2016 Finals. I think they will make life tough for Ukraine in this one, but ultimately I do think Ukraine will find a way to secure an important three points for themselves to just keep track on the top two in this Group.

The 0-1 friendly loss to Malta is a concern, but that was only a friendly and I expect Ukraine to do enough to secure the win on Sunday.


Republic of Ireland v Austria Pick: This is a really important game for the Republic of Ireland and Austria as both bid to end a long wait for an appearance in the World Cup Finals. The Republic of Ireland haven’t played in a World Cup Finals since the infamous 2002 tournament when current Assistant Manager Roy Keane walked out on the squad days before the Finals would begin.

For Austria the wait has been four years longer, but they have underachieved in this Group so far and will need to really pick up their play in the second half of the section. A 4 point gap at this point is far from insurmountable, but Austria have yet to beat any of the three nations ahead of them in the Group and have already lost a home game to Ireland.

There is no doubt that makes this a more important game for Austria and also allows Martin O’Neill to set up his home team to be hard to beat. A draw will certainly look a good result in relation to a potential Play Off spot, but Ireland will be expected to also try and win this game to give themselves a chance of an automatic place in the World Cup Finals next summer.

It can be argued that a win for the Republic of Ireland would make them favourites to win the Group, but this is going to be a tough game.

Austria are far better than they have shown in the Group so far, and they are a team that can scored goals having managed two in each game other than the 0-1 loss to Ireland.

Generally the Republic of Ireland don’t give much away as is highlighted by 5 consecutive clean sheets in home Qualifiers. However this Austria team have shown they can create enough chances to be a danger and the layers could have underestimated the chance of seeing at least three goals in this one.

Austria have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 away Qualifiers and will be looking to attack. That may leave spaces for Ireland to expose too on the counter attack and a rare high-scoring game could be on the cards. The layers don’t think so and have left a big price out there, but I can see these teams combining for a better spectacle than anticipated and will back goals as Austria’s need to win opens up more spaces than this fixture may have done if played earlier in the Group. 


Iceland v Croatia Pick: My immediate reaction to the prices of this game was that Croatia looked a vulnerable favourite to win this World Cup Qualifier in Iceland. While Croatia have won both away Qualifiers during this Qualifying Group, those have come at the two weakest nations in the section and Iceland are definitely not one of those these days.

There has been a slight drift in the Croatia price over the last week and I do have to say that I have been keen to back Iceland to avoid defeat. That is still a decent price when you put together how these teams tend to play and the fact that Croatia would likely accept a draw now to remain 3 points clear of Iceland in 2nd place.

Croatia might be a very good team, but they have not travelled well in their recent away Qualifiers. The 3 straight away Qualifiers have been won against Malta, Kosovo and Finland and none of those teams have been playing at the same level as Iceland.

In the last three Qualifying Groups, Croatia have failed to win in Azerbaijan, Italy, Norway, Serbia, Scotland and Iceland.

Compare that with Iceland who hold home wins over the Netherlands, Turkey (twice) and Czech Republic during a 10 game home Qualifier unbeaten run and I think you can understand why I like the home team here.

My one concern is that Iceland push for a winner to the point of leaving themselves open to the counter from Croatia who are certainly good enough to punish overexposed teams. However I think Iceland may even earn the upset here to really open up the Group and backing them to avoid defeat at a decent price is my call.


Israel v Albania Pick: Immediately I will say that this is a pick where only a small interest should be had because of some of the uncertainty around both teams.

Neither Israel nor Albania will be competing for a place at the World Cup Finals barring a shocking and unforeseen collapse from Spain or Italy. However finishing 3rd in the Group can be important for future draws and there should be motivation at play here.

Out of the two teams, Israel have at least shown more positive form of late compared with Albania who have lost 5 matches in a row. I wouldn’t read too much into the 0-3 loss to Israel as Albania were reduced to ten men at 0-0, but confidence does look sapped in the Albania squad having lost a friendly game in Luxembourg earlier this month.

In saying that, Israel have been a really inconsistent performer in home Qualifiers in recent years and they are just as likely to win this game by two or three goals as lose by the same margin. That has reduced my confidence in them which is reflected by the minimum unit being placed on them to win this Qualifier.

However Israel have shown they can beat teams like this when beating Bosnia-Herzegovina during the Euro 2016 Qualifiers. They just haven’t done it enough for full belief they will produce on Sunday although the odds against quote is worth backing.

Albania have played well in recent away Qualifiers before the loss in Italy, but losing some confidence and already being out of the running suggests they could have a really poor remaining Qualifying campaign.


Serbia v Wales Pick: The 6-1 defeat in Belgrade back in September 2012 was supposed to be the end of the Chris Coleman era as manager of Wales. He has rebuilt his reputation since then and Coleman’s peak may have been taking Wales to the Euro 2016 Semi Final last summer.

Coleman won’t want to think like that and he remained Wales manager in a bid to guide them to their first World Cup appearance since 1958, but this has been a troubling Group. They may not have lost any games, but 4 consecutive draws has allowed the Republic of Ireland and Serbia to move 4 points clear in the section.

A draw would ordinarily be a decent enough result from this Qualifier, but I think Wales have to push for more and we could see yet another entertaining game in Serbia. The two previous Qualifiers here have ended with at least four goals shared out in each as Serbia have coupled attacking intent with poor defensive shape in a transition period.

Wales can certainly attack those vulnerabilities as they are likely to have the counter attacking options, although not through Gareth Bale, to make an impact on this fixture. You have to anticipate that Serbia will be progressive and attacking as they are playing in front of what is a passionate home crowd and that should suit Wales.

On the other hand, I think the Wales defensive shape which has been lauded over the last couple of years has not looked as strong in this Qualifying Group. That should mean an opportunity for Serbia to create chances too and it does feel like a big price to see at least three goals shared out in another fixture in this Group.

MY PICKS: Hungary to Win by One or Two Goals @ 2.02 Sporting Bet (2 Units) [Dutch Win by One Goal and Win by Two Goals for this price]
Cyprus - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 @bet365 (2 Units)
Portugal to Win by Two or Three Goals @ 2.08 Bet Fred (2 Units) [Dutch Win by Two Goals and Win by Three Goals for this price]
Sweden-France Draw @ 3.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Azerbaijan-Northern Ireland Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Scotland-England Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Slovenia to Win by One Goal or Two Goals @ 2.32 Bet Fred (2 Units) [Dutch Win by One Goal and Win by Two Goals for this price]
Poland - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Republic of Ireland-Austria Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.55 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iceland + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Israel @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Serbia-Wales Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Bet Victor (2 Units)