Tennis Picks 2026 (Friday 17th April)

The Quarter Final matches at the four big events being played this week have all been scheduled for action on Friday, but there are only two selections from the matches available.

After a 3-0 start to the week, the hope is that these two selections can continue the positive start to the clay court season.

One of those comes from  the ATP 500 tournament being played in Barcelona and the other from the WTA 500 tournament in Stuttgart.

Some of the top contenders for the French Open title can lay down an early marker at these 500 events, although there are still bigger events to be played in Madrid and Rome at the 1000 level.

However, as mentioned earlier this week, the Masters event in Madrid tends to have a very different feel to the other events during this European clay court run and may be one to keep a watching brief before the Rome event and the last run up into the second Grand Slam of the season.

Rafael Jodar - 3.5 games v Cameron Norrie: It was never going to be easy being the next player to break through in British Tennis during the Andy Murray era, but Cameron Norrie has put together a strong career. He continues to be a brilliant competitor every time he steps onto the court and there is something to be said about that.

At his peak, Cameron Norrie reached World Number 8, while he reached the second week at all of the Grand Slam events with his best effort being a Semi Final run at Wimbledon in 2022. This is an all-court player who reached the French Open Fourth Round for the first time just last year and Cameron Norrie has battled through a couple of Rounds to reach the Quarter Final here in Barcelona this week.

Later this year, Cameron Norrie is turning 31 and there was a feeling several months ago that his best tennis was now behind him.

No one will suggest this is a flashy player, but Norrie will grind every time he steps on the court and his numbers are pretty similar across the surfaces.

Cameron Norrie serves well enough on the clay courts and will get himself into the return rallies to remain dangerous, and the veteran is sure to have learned plenty out of the one-sided defeat suffered to Rafael Jodar on the hard courts of Acapulco in February.

On that day, the young Spaniard won 82% of his service points played and broke the Cameron Norrie serve three times and Rafael Jodar has continued his 2026 form on the clay courts with two solid wins at this event.

That comes after winning a title in Bucharest at an ATP 250 level and Jodar has looked comfortable at this 500 level, although he will respect the fact that he is facing the highest Ranked opponent on this surface so far this season.

Rafael Jodar was not at his very best in the Second Round, but he continues to serve really effectively and that is allowing him to build real pressure on the return. Those numbers on that side of the court are really impressive and it feels like the 19 year old is going to have enough to get past Cameron Norrie.

It should be closer than the meeting in Acapulco now that Norrie has had a proper look at the opponent, but Rafael Jodar is on track to really move up the World Rankings and this is a surface that should favour him to enough of an extent to earn the win and the over of the spread set.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The French Open Final was played in some incredibly difficult conditions, but credit has to be given to Coco Gauff for holding it together for longer than Aryna Sabalenka to win that Grand Slam in 2025.

She has long been very comfortable on the clay courts and Coco Gauff would have been confident of winning the French Open after recent experiences on the surface. Last year, Gauff put together another impressive year on the clay, although the one poor tournament was right here in Stuttgart.

A comfortable win in the Second Round will have given Coco Gauff early momentum and she is going to be happy with the match up in this Quarter Final.

Karolina Muchova is a former French Open Finalist, but she has not played too much clay court tennis over the last couple of years.

That takes away nothing from the ability Muchova has shown to play on all courts, but she has lost all six Tour meetings against Coco Gauff and this has proven to be a difficult opponent to work out.

Karolina Muchova has put together two solid wins in Stuttgart, but she has simply not been able to impose her serve on Coco Gauff in those previous six matches. That is going to be even tougher to achieve on the clay courts, while the World Number 3 has to be credited for getting more out of the first serve on this surface.

This could become an awkward spread where the line currently stands.

However, Coco Gauff's comfort on the clay courts gives her every chance of maintaining the advantage over Karolina Muchova with another win over this opponent.

MY PICKS: Rafael Jodar - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.54 Units (3 Units Staked, + 84.67% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 12th)

A solid return on Saturday has given me a chance to end the first grass court tournaments with a winning record, but there are four Finals to get through before these events can be placed in the books.

Much bigger events are coming up next week with the tournaments in London, Halle, Berlin and Birmingham offering up big Ranking points and deeper fields than we have seen this week. It is also the week when the majority of the top names will play their last events before Wimbledon begins later this month.

Matteo Berrettini v Andy Murray: If you were solely concentrating on the names in the draw, seeing Andy Murray and Matteo Berrettini in the Final of this grass court tournament in Stuttgart would be no surprise.

However, there are circumstances around both players that has perhaps led to this being a surprising Final.

Matteo Berrettini missed the entirety of the clay court season and there may have been some match rustiness to shake off when playing here in Stuttgart. He did reach the Final of Wimbledon after winning the big title in Queens last year, but even then you may have felt that the Italian would need a little bit of time to round back into the kind of form that has seen him become one of the top names on the Tour.

On the other side, Andy Murray chose to miss much of the clay court season in order to prepare for Wimbledon and he is very comfortable on the grass courts. He was a beaten Semi Finalist in a Challenger event in Surbiton last week and we have yet to see Murray really put the wins together as he has in Stuttgart, but he has upset a couple of opponents on his way to this Final.

It will give Andy Murray confidence and the serve has been improved since his wobble in the win over Alexander Bublik and it is so important for Murray to try and pick up cheaper points. He is facing someone who has not always been the most effective return player, but Matteo Berrettini has the kind of serve that can see him roll through service games and build scoreboard pressure to break down an opponent.

We all know how good a return player Andy Murray can be and his numbers have been stronger than Matteo Berrettini's this week, although he did only win 24% of return points against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Italian is a stronger server than Tsitsipas and he will feel he can put Andy Murray under more pressure and make enough returns on the second serve to win this match.

Last year Matteo Berrettini crushed Andy Murray at Queen's Club in London on this surface, and it was a day in which the former returned very well to back up his big serve.

This should be a close and competitive Final, but I have to give a very slight edge to Matteo Berrettini who looks very happy on the surface and he can win a match that could go the distance before both players head to London.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 19-15, + 3.62 Units (68 Units Staked, + 5.25% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 11th)

A late retirement in the final match in Stuttgart put a dampener on the day for the Tennis Picks and it would have helped considering the results that had come in.

The Andy Murray win over Stefanos Tsitsipas was impressive in that tournament and he sets up a big Semi Final against Nick Kyrgios, while the grass court season feels firmly underway as we are days away from the really big events starting before Wimbledon gets going.

We are down to the business end of the events in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart before that and I am looking for a strong close to the tournaments that have been played this week.

Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final in Stuttgart looks like it could be a serve-dominated outing and I am a little surprised that the layers are offering a total games line at the number they have.

My feeling was the line would be at least a game higher than where it stands right now and I would not have been massively surprised if it was set two games higher, but I think these two have the serving capability of covering this line even if one of the two were to win this match in straight sets.

Oscar Otte didn't have to pick up his racquet in the Quarter Final when given a walkover by Benjamin Bonzi, while Matteo Berrettini needed three sets for a second match in a row as he got the better of his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego. It does mean the top Seed here has spent more time of the court than Oscar Otte even though both have played two matches in the draw, but you can understand why Matteo Berrettini has been set as the favourite having played so well on the grass courts in 2021 and also looking like a much more effective return player in the two matches played in Stuttgart.

While the numbers don't bounce off the page, Matteo Berrettini did create at least six break points in both wins this week and he has broken serve at least twice. He has done that despite winning 33% of return points played, but shows a player who has been able to focus on the games he has needed to in order to make the break.

It is far more impressive than Oscar Otte's return numbers having broken in 4% of return games played compared with Berrettini's 18% mark, while the home hope has only won 24% of points against the serve.

The pressure will be on Oscar Otte to make sure he serves well and he has won 77% of his service points played in his two wins this week, while has only been broken once. That serve can be highly effective when Otte gets into a roll and I think he can force at least one tie-breaker which can only a long way to clearing this total.

Matteo Berrettini is still finding his way after a long absence from the Tour and has won 68% of service points played which has led to 92% of service games being held. The Italian has to feel he can contain Oscar Otte and have a go on the return games, but it feels like a match that will be dominated by two big servers and it may lead to a long match in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.

In their two previous matches, Matteo Berrettini has found a way to get into the Oscar Otte service games, but both of those were in Grand Slam tournaments and he still needed four sets to get past this opponent on both occasions. He has had a significant edge on the serve over this opponent in the head to head so I do favour Berrettini to come through, but it may be after two close sets are concluded.

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 22.5 games: Having a career best World Ranking of Number 175 would be pretty successful in most fields, but in tennis it means a player has not really been able to push on in their career as they would have liked.

At 25 years old, Tim Van Rijthoven may have felt his career was stagnating, but he did reach that career high World Ranking a couple of months ago.

And this week he is having the very best time in a home ATP event that will provide him with the Ranking points to push his personal Ranking up to Number 153 having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch. He has been serving lights out on the grass courts and I do think it is a part of his game that will give him a chance to push Felix Auger-Aliassime on this surface.

The Canadian is having another solid week on the Tour and I think reaching the ATP Finals in Turin has to be a real aim for Felix Auger-Aliassime who is finding more consistency in his level in each week. His serve has been a big weapon for him in his two wins in this tournament, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has struggled for an effective return and that is where Tim Van Rijthoven should have a chance of being competitive.

His own return has not been the most effective, but Tim Van Rijthoven has to be confident with the kind of serves has has been delivering.

It certainly suggests the two players can roll through service games and combine to cover this total games line, which is another that could have been set at least one game higher than where the line is.

Tie-breakers could be needed to separate the two players with both winning 74% of service points played this week which has led to 95% of service games behind held. Neither of these players have been in great form on the return, and Tim Van Rijthoven and Felix Auger-Aliassime have only given up thirteen break points combined.

Of course it will depend on how well they can deal with those pressurised moments and it can see the match quickly running away from one of these players. However, the two have combined for just thirteen break points so far this week with their largely limited return performances and I will look for this Semi Final in Hertogenbosch to have enough games to cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 22.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tereza Martincova @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-15, - 2.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 3.52% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 10th)

We should be able to complete the tournaments in the manner we would want this week with better weather expected this weekend.

Shuai Zhang v Tereza Martincova: The rain in all of the events being played this week means the line up for the Quarter Finals are still taking shape.

All of the events are hoping to be back on schedule by Friday, but it is not certain that will be the case and this Quarter Final in Nottingham may be on late in the afternoon. At least both Shuai Zhang and Tereza Martincova can prepare for this match knowing who they will be facing and both players are enjoying their return to Nottingham.

Both played here in 2021 and Shuai Zhang ended up as the Runner Up, while Tereza Martincova was beaten in the Quarter Final. After disappointing showings on the clay courts, both will also have welcomed the move into the grass court season after strong displays last season and neither player has dropped a set on their way to the Quarter Final.

It should be noted that Shuai Zhang has benefited from the draw a little more than Tereza Martincova.

While the Runner Up from last season has beaten two players that are Ranked 128 in the World Rankings or lower, Tereza Martincova has two top 85 wins. Her performances have been more impressive of the two as well with the Czech player only facing two break points in her two matches combined and that has helped Martincova build scoreboard pressure on her opponents.

The returning in the first match against Oceane Dodin wasn't very impressive, but Tereza Martincova was much better in her win over Magda Linette and it feels she could be the more battle-hardened for this Quarter Final.

Take nothing away from Shuai Zhang who has long been comfortable on the grass courts, but she did not back up her run in Nottingham in 2021 in the manner she would have wanted. She has looked very solid in Nottingham this year too and clearly enjoys playing this tournament, but Shuai Zhang has not been as convincing in her wins and I do think her second serve could be vulnerable to Tereza Martincova.

Shuai Zhang has been returning very well though and that has to be encouraging for her, while I think she can step up her performance against a better player. Her wins have been solid enough this week, and the returning aspect of her tennis makes her dangerous for Tereza Martincova who has won 37% of return points in her two matches compared with Shaui Zhang's 45% mark.

It will be a close and competitive Quarter Final and I would not be surprised if we need a decider to determine the winner, but I do think the underdog's returning ability can see her edge to the win.

MY PICKS: Shuai Zhang @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia + 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alison Van Uytvanck + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Caty McNally + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Gams @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.90 Units (50 Units Staked, + 5.80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 9th)

Wet weather has forced a number of matches to be postponed until Thursday and it is vital for all of the tournaments being played that they get back on track.

Some of those events are starting earlier than usual in a bid to avoid having players forced to play twice in the same day to ensure we have a Sunday finish. The weather looks very good at all of the events going into the weekend, but Thursday could be another challenging day for players who have to wait around and hope there are enough windows of play to get their matches completed.

Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Alexander Bublik: After deciding to skip the majority of the clay court season, Andy Murray is back on the grass courts where he was once as good as anybody on the Tour. At this stage of his career, Andy Murray is no longer one of the favourites to win Wimbledon, but he does feel he can still have a big impact on a surface that is largely unfamiliar to many on the Tour.

With that in mind, Andy Murray has chosen to play as many tournaments as he can on the grass and that included taking part in a Challenger event in Surbiton last week. He reached the Semi Final there before a close defeat to Denis Kudla, but it also served as a reminder that Murray is not the force he once was on the Tour in general.

Needing as much court time as he can find, Andy Murray has decided to head out of Britain for a grass court appearance and reached the Second Round in Stuttgart behind a strong win. He will be the first to admit that the level of opponent moves up significantly in this Round, but Andy Murray will be familiar with what Alexander Bublik can bring to the table having played him twice already in 2022.

Those two previous matches have been split with one win apiece, but this match is being played on a grass court on which Andy Murray may feel he has a real edge.

However, Alexander Bublik has a game that can be dangerous on the grass courts and he was a very comfortable winner over the aforementioned Denis Kudla in the First Round thanks to the serve. He won 76% of points played behind serve and that built up the scoreboard pressure that eventually saw Bublik crack through and win in straight sets.

Alexander Bublik enjoyed a couple of solid grass court runs in 2021 too having held 88% of the service games played in the eleven matches played on the surface and I do think he will go as far as his serve can take him. It helps build scoreboard pressure and makes up for what has been a pretty limited return game.

There is enough from the return to give Andy Murray one or two things to think about, especially as the former Wimbledon Champion admitted he would like to serve better after his First Round win over Christoper O'Connell. In saying that, Andy Murray has been able to hold 90% of his service games in the two matches against Alexander Bublik in 2022 and will feel he can generate enough returns in play to showcase his superior grass court nous.

It certainly won't be an easy match for either player with the serve likely to be crucial to their chances, but I do think Andy Murray can win the big points this time thanks to his previous grass court appearances. Another first set tie-breaker would not be a surprise, but Andy Murray can nose in front and go on and win this Second Round match as he continues his build towards Wimbledon.

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics over 22.5 games: There had been very little suggestion that Hubert Hurkacz was going to be a genuine title contender going into Wimbledon 2021.

He had limited success on the grass courts through his career to that point and Hubert Hurkacz had been beaten in his opening match in Stuttgart and Halle, but he caught fire when he set foot in SW19. A run to the Semi Final is one thing, but Hubert Hurkacz enjoyed victories over the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer before losing in four sets in the Semi Final against Matteo Berrettini and the World Number 13 will be feeling much more confident playing on the grass courts in 2022 than he would have been going into 2021.

In saying that, I do think Hubert Hurkacz has to win the fine margins if he is going to have successes on the surface. We know the serve is a potent weapon for Hurkacz on the faster surfaces and he has shown improvements behind that shot in 2018, 2019 and 2021, while he has always held a huge amount of service games on the grass courts.

However, Hubert Hurkacz has struggled on the return and managed to break in 17% of return games played on the grass in 2021, which is an improvement on previous years. That isn't a number that will intimidate too many and you have to feel that Hurkacz will be under pressure to play perfect tie-breakers if he is going to replicate the success of Wimbledon 2021.

I do think Hurkacz could have a bit more of an opportunity against Marton Fucsovics, even though the former Boys' Singles Winner at Junior Wimbledon is comfortable on the grass courts.

The Hungarian is now 30 years old and he has struggled for consistency on the grass courts with a serve that can be vulnerable when offering up too many second serves to attack. While the return of serve is pretty effective on the grass courts, Marton Fucsovics has held only 79% of his service games on a surface which should favour the server and that is a concern when the scoreboard pressure is ramped up in this kind of match.

Marton Fucsovics did reach the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and he was a strong First Round winner in Stuttgart so he should not be lacking for confidence. The serve worked well in the First Round and that will be encouraging as Marton Fucsovics takes on an opponent he has beaten in their two previous matches, although those were played in 2018 and Fucsovics and Hubert Hurkacz may have crossed one another in terms of ability since then.

Both players should feel they can serve well enough to push the other and I would not be surprised to see this match needing at least one tie-breaker to begin to separate them. The limited returning of Hubert Hurkacz could mean this is a match that is dominated by each server and I think they can combine to surpass this total games line set.

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker over 22.5 games: A disappointing French Open is behind Stefanos Tsitsipas and there is little time to regret the relatively early defeat in the second Grand Slam of the season. Despite being in the weaker half of the draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas seemed to struggle with the pressure and he has dropped into World Number 5 after the tournament was concluded.

Now he has to go into the grass court season with the short build towards the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon and this has not been a very enjoyable time of the year for the Greek player.

The 2019 season on the grass has been the exception to the rule, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has largely had average numbers and results on the surface and his First Round defeat at Wimbledon last year was concerning. He may have been undercooked for the grass court Slam after finishing Runner Up at Roland Garros and not taking in any warm up events before Wimbledon began, but this year is looking to be different.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will get his Stuttgart campaign going in the Second Round having received a Bye in the First Round as the top Seed in the draw, while he is expected to play in Halle next week.

His serve is effective on the grass courts and I do think that will give him a chance to put wins on the board, but the big challenge for Stefanos Tsitsipas is improving the return. It is a part of his game that has shown some improvement on the hard courts, but Dominic Stricker can put Tsitsipas under pressure with his own serve that helped him through a difficult First Round match.

Dominic Stricker has served pretty well in his limited grass court matches and upset Hubert Hurkacz here in Stuttgart twelve months ago. He is facing an opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas who has broken in just 14% of return games in his career grass court matches and who will have some adjustments to make in his first grass court match in 2022.

The return game has been an issue for Dominic Stricker on this surface too and I do think this could be a relatively tight couple of sets played with the serve expected to be on top. If the match was played later in the grass court season, Stefanos Tsitsipas may be expected to really get on top of the return, but this may take some time to adjust on Thursday in the Second Round in Stuttgart and we may need a tie-breaker, or even two, to separate the two on the day.

The total game line isn't short, but it looks in a good place for these players to combine and surpass with the serves expected to be on top and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker Over 22.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 0.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 3.55% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 8th)

Wet weather has meant some of the tournaments are struggling to remain on track this week, but for the most part the events in s'Hertogenbosch, Stuttgart and Nottingham are where they need to be.

Conditions look warmer towards the end of the week, but it could be another wet Wednesday which will mean rain delays and matches perhaps being held over to Thursday. As long as the Second Round matches are completed by Thursday evening, all of these events should be able to be completed without the need for anyone to win twice in a single day.

The format of some of the events being played this week means there have been Byes offered out to the top names that have chosen to take part in the days following the end of the French Open.

Some of those are due out on the courts on Wednesday, including a returning Matteo Berrettini who missed the entirety of the clay court season and who has not played since the Indian Wells Masters in March. The Italian is going to suffer a significant drop in the World Rankings in the weeks ahead having won the title at Queens Club last year and followed up with a Runner Up spot at Wimbledon, but his foremost focus will be to get healthier and return to his best tennis as soon as possible.

Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Injury forced Jan-Lennard Struff to miss the clay court season and he had last been in action at the Miami Masters in March. The clay courts have been a productive surface for the German so it would have been a blow to miss the last two months, but Jan-Lennard Struff returned in Stuttgart and battled very hard to win his First Round match in three tight sets.

His World Ranking has slipped back outside the top 100 after a 1-9 start to the season with Jan-Lennard Struff losing nine matches in a row before deciding he needed to reset before returning to the Tour.

Whatever had been ailing Jan-Lennard Struff saw him fail to complete his match in Miami and you have to imagine there has been a slight loss of confidence with the losses piling up.

The win in the First Round here will offer a boost, but Jan-Lennard Struff was forced to spend over two hours on the court and it will be a tough recovery time for someone who has been off the Tour for as long as he has.

Facing someone like Lorenzo Sonego will be an additional challenge after the Italian found a liking to the grass courts in 2019. He backed that up with an impressive 2021 on the grass too and Lorenzo Sonego has beaten Benoit Paire in the First Round, an opponent who should be well suited to the surface.

Jan-Lennard Struff has largely not enjoyed his time on the grass courts- he gets more out of the serve, but his return has really been impacted on the surface and Struff is not likely to get much change out of the Lorenzo Sonego serve.

The higher Ranked player has a considerable edge on the return of serve on this surface and I think that makes the difference for Lorenzo Sonego who can book his place in the Stuttgart Quarter Final.

Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: If you are solely basing Denis Shapovalov's ability to play on the grass courts from his attributes, you would think he has a pretty solid game to play on this surface.

After a couple of seasons where the lefty failed to make a big impact in grass court tournaments, Denis Shapovalov reached the Semi Final at both Queens Club and Wimbledon in 2021 having been a Quarter Finalist in Stuttgart. The defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final was after three hugely competitive sets and Denis Shapovalov may be looking forward to returning onto this surface after a disappointing First Round loss at Roland Garros.

Take away the upset over a limping Rafael Nadal in Rome and you would have to say the clay court season was a disappointment overall for the young Canadian who has yet to really deliver on the promise he has.

While the serve remains a big weapon for him, Denis Shapovalov has struggled with his return and the best approach to that part of his tennis and it is especially telling when you play on the faster surfaces. A first match back on the grass courts could also mean an adjustment period for Denis Shapovalov and I do thin he could have asked for an easier match than facing home player Oscar Otte.

The German was a deserved winner in the First Round against his compatriot and Oscar Otte reached the Second Round at Wimbledon last year after coming through the Qualifiers. That was the sole grass court tournament played by Otte, but he has improved his World Ranking over the last twelve months and that earned him direct entry into the Stuttgart main draw.

It was the serve that proved to be a big weapon for Oscar Otte in his run in SW19, and he will need to use that shot to try and put his higher Ranked opponent under pressure. Serving well could also frustrate Denis Shapovalov who has not been winning consistently and Oscar Otte has held 90% of his service games played on the grass over the last twelve months.

Last season it was Andy Murray who took five sets to end the Otte run and I do think his numbers have largely been produced against players Ranked much lower than Denis Shapovalov. However, he is facing someone who has had issues with his own return and a first match on the surface could leave Denis Shapovalov a little vulnerable if Oscar Otte serves anywhere near where he can.

I do think Shapovalov will be rolling through plenty of his service games too, and the feeling is that this Second Round match could go plenty long. With at least one tie-breaker expected, I think two strong servers can get through service games quickly enough to move into a position to cover this number of games set for the total.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Camila Giorgi - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kamil Majchrzak + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.88 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 7th)

The grass court season has begun and the Tennis Picks will be focused on those events for the remainder of the month and into early July.

Bigger events are going to be played next week, but there are a number of tournaments scheduled for this week as players look to get some experience under their belt in what is the shortest part of the year on a single surface.

Rain is the biggest threat to the tournaments this week with even a little amount making it a very slippery and dangerous surface on which to play. It does look a wet week at all of the events and that will force players to win two matches in a single day to keep the events on track.

Maxime Cressy-Dominic Stricker over 23.5 games: The courts in Stuttgart are playing pretty quickly in the early Rounds of the grass court season and this is a match that features two players that will be confident in their serve. Maxime Cressy is playing his first match back on the surface since the grass court season in 2021 and it is a dangerous time to face a Qualifier in Dominic Stricker who beat Aslan Karatsev in one of two wins to take his place in the main draw.

Last year the 20 year old Swiss player was given a direct spot in the main draw in Stuttgart and he reached the Quarter Final before losing to a grass court specialist in Sam Querrey. On his way, Dominic Stricker beat Radu Albot and Hubert Hurkacz with the latter win looking particularly impressive when you think the big serving Polish player reached the Wimbledon Semi Final just a few weeks later.

He was well beaten in Halle, but Dominic Stricker will feel pretty happy back on the grass having earned those two wins in the Qualifiers too. He has won 66% of his service points behind serve and that has led to 82% of service games being held on the surface and I do think the lefty will cause problems for Maxime Cressy who has struggled as a return player on the grass courts in his limited time on the surface.

The American has only won 31% of return points played in his nine previous grass court matches and Cressy has only broken serve in 13% of return games played. I expect Dominic Stricker to be able to have plenty of success behind his serve in this one, although the challenge for the Swiss player is trying to pressure the Maxime Cressy serve.

Maxime Cressy has been slightly more effective behind serve than Stricker with 68% of service points won in grass court matches and that has led to holds in 87% of service games played.

Like his opponent in the First Round, Dominic Stricker has had a tough time getting to grips with the return of serve and has only broken in 19% of his return games played in the six grass court matches played in his young career. That number has been significantly boosted by his strong player in the Qualifiers in this tournament, but I do think the server is going to be on top in this one.

Last season, Dominic Stricker played three matches in Stuttgart and the first two sets in each of those went to a tie-breaker. I think he will serve well enough to be competitive, but the same can be said for Maxime Cressy and it may lead to a First Round match that surpasses what is a big total line set for this one.

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: Two Frenchmen are coming off disappointing showings at their home Grand Slam, but there is a feeling that Ugo Humbert is going to be much happier being back on the grass rather than on the clay courts.

It has been a difficult season for Ugo Humbert who had been as high as Number 25 in the World Rankings twelve months ago, but who has slipped back to Number 48.

That means he will be under pressure in this grass court season considering Ugo Humbert reached the Quarter Final here in Stuttgart before winning a major title in Halle. That means he has plenty of points to defend to avoid another significant drop down the World Rankings, but Humbert has enjoyed playing on the grass courts where is serve and ability to get to the net are very effective.

He is much more experienced than Arthur Rinderknech who is playing in his third ever grass court match, but who is also only a few places behind Humbert in the World Rankings having had a more consistent season.

Last season Arthur Rinderknech went 1-1 in Halle and the numbers are from a very small sample and hard to really judge.

However, I do think Rinderknech has shown his serve can be effective on the hard courts and he should be able to earn plenty of free points on this surface, although the return is not one of any real note. It is the return where Ugo Humbert could be able to exert some scoreboard pressure by putting Arthur Rinderknech under the cosh when it comes to the returning aspect of his tennis and I do think Ugo Humbert can get off to a strong start.

The higher Ranked Frenchman is not exactly known for his own return on the grass courts, but I do think he will find the one break he may need to cover this mark and I will back him to do that in the First Round in Stuttgart.

MY PICKS: Maxime Cressy-Dominic Stricker Over 24.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Katie Boulter - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.36 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 6th)

The clay court swing has come to a close for a few weeks as the French Open was concluded this past weekend, but the Tour carries on and the grass court season has already begun.

Last week there were a couple of tournaments in the Challenger and ITF level that were played on the grass, but the main build towards Wimbledon will begin this week with tournaments in Stuttgart, Nottingham and s'Hertogenbosch all getting going.

Most of the very top names are not playing, but there are plenty who are getting their preparations for Wimbledon underway before the bigger events in London, Halle and Birmingham next week.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marcos Giron - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Soon Woo Kwon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Heather Watson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jodie Burrage + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 21st)

It really felt like a day when the Tennis Picks deserved a better return than they got, but things could have been worse on another day.

While I anticipated Wednesday to be a busy day, weather conditions and the strange way some of the tournaments are managing their schedules means Thursday is a busier day than expected. The Tennis Picks follow suit with a number of selections from the four tournaments being played this week and you can read my thoughts on a few of the matches below as well as the full Tennis Picks from another day on the clay.

In the Friday thread I will have a few thoughts about the decision made by Wimbledon and the LTA in banning players from Belarus and Russia from taking part in the grass court season in the UK.

Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: No one can beat Aljaz Bedene eight times in a row!

After seven straight losses to Fabio Fognini, Aljaz Bedene beat the Italian for the first time when they met on the clay courts of Cordoba in 2019, but a lot has changed in the last three years. Both of these players are now veterans of the Tour, while Aljaz Bedene has only made his return to the Tour last month after missing the rest of 2021 from July with injuries piling up.

As you can imagine, Aljaz Bedene has not really performed as well as he would have liked while trying to rebuild his match fitness, but the victory over Mikhail Kukushkin in the First Round in Belgrade will help. For a long time, Aljaz Bedene has saved his best tennis for the clay courts and the next six weeks could be important for a player that has slipped down to Number 164 in the World Rankings, even if this match up is a tough one for him.

Fabio Fognini is clearly coming to the end of a long, successful career, but he can still be very effective on the clay courts and that will encourage him in the lead to the French Open. Last week he was well beaten by eventual Monte Carlo Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, but Fabio Fognini may feel much more comfortable at the ATP 250 level on this surface and he has reached the Quarter Final in Buenos Aires and the Semi Final in Rio de Janeiro on the clay courts in 2022.

The numbers on the clay courts over the last twelve months have been largely average, but Fabio Fognini has been the superior return player of the two and I think that gives him an edge. He is also much more match hardened than Aljaz Bedene who has spent a number of months off the Tour and I expect that to also factor in favour of the Italian.

In their previous clay court matches that have largely been dominated by Fabio Fognini, the difference in the returning departments have been clear and I think that will be the outcome of this match in Belgrade too. I will be the first to admit that I rarely back Fabio Fognini because he can be an erratic player, but this is one of those moments where I think the veteran enigma can be looked at as a potential strong winner in the Second Round.

Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 games v Oscar Otte: 2021 was a special year for Aslan Karatsev, but 2022 has proven to be a much more difficult one through the first four months of the season. That may sound a little harsh considering Aslan Karatsev has won a title on the hard courts in January, but he has only reached one Quarter Final since Sydney and has suffered a number of disappointing early losses in recent weeks.

The World Ranking has slipped back to Number 30 and Aslan Karatsev has plenty of points to defend in Belgrade having reached the Final in 2021. That does increase the pressure on someone who has not really performed as well as he would like and who may be suffering with confidence issues, but Aslan Karatsev has to feel this is a winnable match.

The Second Round brings a match up against Oscar Otte who has reached a career high of World Number 67 earlier this month. You have to respect someone who is clearly raising his level of performance, but Oscar Otte has yet to take his game up from the Challenger level to the main ATP Tour with any real consistency and the same can be said for his clay court performances.

Oscar Otte was a strong winner in the First Round, but he was beaten twice in Monte Carlo having been given a reprieve for a Qualifier defeat to lose again as the 'Lucky Loser' in the First Round. Last year he did have some solid runs on this surface at the Challenger level, but Oscar Otte is just 2-2 against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months.

In those four matches, Oscar Otte has really struggled with his serve and held just 66% of service games played and I do think Aslan Karatsev can put him under some pressure in this one.

However, you do have to question whether Aslan Karatsev has the confidence to take advantage when the chances come his way, while the Russian has a serve which can be a little erratic. He has largely backed that up on the clay courts with success, but Aslan Karatsev has only broken in 19% of return games played on this surface over the last twelve months and I do think the confidence levels are a major concern.

At least Aslan Karatsev can use the fact he has beaten Oscar Otte twice before, once on the clay, to fuel his confidence in this one. With the strong run produced in Belgrade last year, you have to feel Karatsev will be happier in the surroundings and it can lead to a win over Oscar Otte here.

In their two previous matches, the Aslan Karatsev serve has been the more reliable of the two and I think he can use some heavy serving to move into another Quarter Final in Belgrade.

Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: Any player that has come through the Qualifiers and won three matches in a tournament has to be respected and there has to be a confidence in the Taro Daniel tennis that makes him dangerous. The last twelve months have been pretty solid for Taro Daniel who is edging back towards the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he has not always been at his best on the clay courts.

The come from behind win over Dusan Lajovic in the First Round will be a boost for Taro Daniel, although it was a tough match that would have taken something out of his legs. He needed almost a full three hours to win that First Round match and so the day off on Wednesday will have been welcomed, but Taro Daniel will need to be a little better all around if he is going to win this Second Round match too.

Over the last twelve months, Taro Daniel has produced some solid clay court numbers, although it should be pointed out the majority of those matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100. When you only look at his matches against the better players on the Tour, Taro Daniel has held 71% of service games played and broken in 23% of return games, numbers which dip significantly from his overall clay court performances in the last twelve months.

Now he has to face Holger Rune, an improving young player who has been very comfortable when playing on the clay courts. A narrow loss to Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo will only have boosted the confidence of Holger Rune who crushed Cristian Garin in the First Round for the loss of just four games.

The Danish player has served pretty well on the clay courts, but it is the return of serve where he has been most dangerous and I expect that to make the difference for him on Thursday.

In 2022, Holger Rune has broken in 37% of return games played on the surface and I do think he can impose his will on Taro Daniel. That was the case when he played Taro Daniel on the clay in 2021 and Holger Rune won that match in pretty routine fashion after holding in 81% of service games played compared with Taro Daniel's 60% mark.

Taro Daniel will take confidence from the fact he created more break points in that match Szczecin, but he won 57% of service points played compared with Holger Rune's 65% mark and I think the younger player will be fresher for the match too. Holger Rune looks to be the superior clay courter and I think he will be good enough to beat Taro Daniel by a good margin on his way through to the Quarter Final in Belgrade.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 4.54 Units (24 Units Staked, - 18.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (April 20th)

That was a poor day all around punctuated by the horrible Manchester United performance at Anfield.

I might have had a tough day in the office as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned, but I was largely happy with the selections and felt I deserved slightly better.

One player has moved onto my 'blacklist' and will not be selected over the next couple of weeks as I take a watching brief on their matches, but it was a frustrating day in the main with only Marton Fucsovics returning as a winner.

Wednesday is another extremely busy day of Tennis with the four tournaments getting into the meat of the events being played and it is hopefully a day in which the Picks can be much more productive.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Barnabe Zapata Miralles: These two players met here in Barcelona last year and it will be interesting to see how much Barnabe Zapata Miralles learned from the experience.

He was pretty well beaten by the experienced Pablo Carreno Busta and the higher Ranked player did reach the Quarter Final in Monte Carlo last week. I do have to admit that the numbers have largely been a little disappointing compared to what you may expect from Pablo Carreno Busta, but he is a battle hardened player and that means he has found a way to win close matches.

Much will depend on how effective the Pablo Carreno Busta serve will be and over the last twelve months it has been an inconsistent weapon on the clay courts. He will definitely feel there is an improvement to be made from his Monte Carlo performance, but this is a good chance to get into the tournament in Barcelona.

Being a higher Ranked and older player than his compatriot is something that has made an impact in matches throughout the history of the Tennis Tour and I think that may have been part of the reason that Barnabe Zapata Miralles was beaten pretty handily last season. The one previous match should mean Zapata Miralles is a bit more comfortable facing up to Pablo Carreno Busta, but he has had a mixed time on the clay courts in 2022.

Barnabe Zapata Miralles has come through the Qualifiers and his three wins in Barcelona have been very impressive, but he has struggled with his serve on the clay courts this season. That makes him vulnerable to Pablo Carreno Busta, although I do think the younger Spaniard will be able to have success with his own return.

That has been the strongest part of his game, but it may be under pressure if Barnabe Zapata Miralles is not able to produce strong serving on the day. It was the difference last season with Zapata Miralles struggling to hold onto his serve when they met here in Barcelona and I do think Pablo Carreno Busta can produce a similar kind of victory on Wednesday in this Second Round meeting.

I would like to see Pablo Carreno Busta just knuckle down quicker than he did in his matches in Monte Carlo last week, but he has enjoyed playing in Barcelona and I think he can win through to the next Round.

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v Ugo Humbert: You cannot ignore the fact that Alex De Minaur has not been at his most comfortable on the clay courts and so it is very difficult to back him as a favourite in any match on this surface.

That is the case even when facing someone like Ugo Humbert who has been struggling with his confidence in 2022- however, the Frenchman has won a match in Barcelona and should be plenty ready to deal with the conditions he is facing.

Ugo Humbert is another player who has been at odds with playing on the clay courts and I think that, coupled with his lack of confidence, will make him vulnerable to someone as solid as Alex De Minaur can be. This might not be his best surface, but De Minaur has been able to get a little bit more out of his serve compared with Ugo Humbert and the Australian also looks to have a real edge when it comes to the returning numbers on the surface.

Their two previous matches have both been played on the hard courts and have seen the two players split those one apiece, but the clay courts may just strengthen the edge in favour of Alex De Minaur.

Any player who has struggled on a surface as much as Alex De Minaur has done can be difficult to trust to cover such a spread as the one he is being asked to cover on Wednesday, but I do think he played well enough in Monte Carlo. Playing a first match in this ATP Barcelona event also means Alex De Minaur may need a bit of time to just get himself ready to compete, but I do think his numbers over the last twelve months suggest he is the stronger player on the clay courts and able to work his way to an edge.

In their two hard court matches, the Australian has had a slight edge too and I think he can earn enough break points to be in a position to cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tamara Zidansek - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-4, - 4 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 22nd)

There are always some difficult moments during the long Tour and that goes for players and those of us trying to make the right Tennis Picks.

I'm just having one of those trying times.

I have added at least two names to some of the others that are already on my list that have to be avoided at all costs- you can't really trust them to perform when you back them, but they will be unplayable the day you dare to oppose them (hi Kei Nishikori).

And no matter who I pick, it is never easy for them... At the moment the amount of break points and set points being missed or players serving for the match and then faltering massively that has been going on is laughable. If I pick an underdog though, they seem to a train-wreck that won't even think about competing.

I won't lie, it is nothing but frustrating when things like this happen and the worst thing part is you would prefer the train-wreck Pick rather than the one that is almost conspired against by the Tennis Gods.

I mean if your selection gets battered you put it down to one of those days- but what do you say when someone has a set and a break lead, fails to serve it out, misses match points and decides to lose six of seven games... Worst still, they will then win five in a row to win the match and miss the cover by one game (hi Filip Krajinovic).

Too often this has happened since the latter week of the Miami Masters and it has proved to be costly.

But how many times can it keep happening? I think Thursday will be a key day for me at least until the Madrid Masters.

If there are more of these types of weird things happening, I think I am going to take a short break and just hit the reset button. Over the last couple of days it has felt most of the big points have gone against my selections and that really is bad luck, because you can't keep picking players to get into a position where they are one point from crossing the line and falling short each time, just through sheer luck it won't keep happening.

BUT I am also not willing to have a bad run hurt me over and over- I regularly take those breaks between events to just settle things back to zero and then go again (just as I am writing this Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has lost the set 6-3 despite losing THREE more points- again that is almost statistically impossible seeing as you need two points more to win a single game). However, it is that kind of nonsense I refuse to accept as being a sign of a bad pick rather than a horrific turn of luck.

In saying that I have had some bad Picks too, but those are compounded by the others and I do need to be better.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Alex De Minuar: It has not been the most productive of seasons for Alex De Minaur up to this point and he is going to be entering what has regularly become a difficult portion of the Tour for him. The Australian did win a ATP Title early on in 2021, but he is just 4-7 since then and the win in the Second Round here snapped a poor run that the Australian had been on.

I have to say that he has not really enjoyed much fortune with some close losses before another narrow defeat in Monte Carlo last week, while Alex De Minaur will be going up against a player in confident form and one that has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts throughout his career.

Stefanos Tsitsipas missed a couple of opportunities for Titles already in 2021, but he is finally on the board with a Masters success in Monte Carlo. While Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will go into the French Open as the favourites, the Greek star may have overtaken Dominic Thiem as the player most likely to be successful if the top two clay courters do falter.

He isn't just winning matches at the moment, but Tsitsipas is blowing through opponents and it was more of the same in his Second Round win over a solid clay courter in Juame Munar. This opponent is not as comfortable on the red dirt and you do have to say that Stefanos Tsitsipas is deserving of his spot as a big favourite, even if the handicap mark is one that can be hard to surpass if playing a B or C level performance.

We just haven't seen any of those in short time back on the clay after reaching the French Open Semi Final last year and Stefanos Tsitsipas is arguably playing much better now. The serve has always been a big weapon for Tsitsipas, but he is most impressing with his bullying on the return and following that up by putting opponent's under significant pressure which has led to breaks in 47% of return games played since the start of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Stefanos Tsitsipas isn't just building his numbers against cannon fodder as half of his six wins on the clay have been against top 30 Ranked opponents.

Alex De Minaur is a player I respect, but he is just 2-7 on the clay courts since 2019 and his service numbers in particular have made for disappointing reading in those matches. In that time the Australian has won just 55% of his service points played and that has led to a hold of serve in less than 65% of his service games on the clay, numbers that a player like Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he can exploit.

There will be an additional reason for that confidence as Stefanos Tsitsipas has won six of the seven professional matches played between these two players. In those matches, the majority which have been played on surfaces that Alex De Minaur would favour, Tsitsipas has won 42% of return points played compared with De Minaur's 31% mark and there has been a considerable edge in holds of serve off the back of that.

They did play a competitive match Down Under in the ATP Cup, but that was on a hard court and was still won by Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-3, 7-5 a couple of months ago. On a surface that favours the Greek significantly more than Alex De Minaur, I do expect that gap to be slightly bigger at the end of this Third Round match.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 games v Bernabe Zapata Miralles: After dominating the first set, Bernabe Zapata Miralles may feel he was robbed of the biggest win of his career by Fabio Fognini's outburst that saw the fiery Italian Disqualified in the Second Round. He has never beaten a top 50 Ranked player on the clay courts and the 24 year old will be taking aim at that in the Third Round when taking on a compatriot in Barcelona.

This is a tough looking match for Bernabe Zapata Miralles as he gets set to take on Pablo Carreno Busta who has already won an ATP Title on the clay courts this season. It will perhaps surprise some to hear that I don't think the clay courts are Carreno Busta's best surface having had decent success playing on the hard courts, but the Spaniard is comfortable on the red dirt and his performances over the last couple of weeks have been encouraging.

He only needed a little over an hour to crush Jordan Thompson in the Second Round and Pablo Carreno Busta has produced some solid numbers in his limited time on the clay courts this season. Pablo Carreno Busta didn't play badly on the clay last season either and he has been a solid, if unspectacular, performer on the surface.

The level shown is certainly one that is going to test Bernabe Zapata Miralles, although the Qualifier has a number of wins under his belt that will mean he is confident. I also think the return game has to be respected in this match and Zapata Miralles will know that his opponent is one that can offer up chances on his own serve when he is not at his best, although Pablo Carreno Busta will also believe he can pressure someone who has won less than 60% of service points played on this surface in 2021.

That has largely come in matches against players Ranked outside the top 100 too and his numbers are dented when facing those players inside that number in the World Rankings. Bernabe Zepata Miralles might find the pressure produced from the other side of the net very difficult to deal with and if Pablo Carreno Busta is able to serve as well as he has been in his short time back on the clay he should have a real edge against his younger opponent.

I do think one of the sets will be quite competitive, but Carreno Busta should be able to create the majority of the break point chances and eventually wear down this opponent.

John Millman - 1.5 games v Taro Daniel: Neither of these two players has had a lot of success on the clay courts, but it is a good opportunity to earn a Quarter Final spot and put some vital World Ranking points in the bag. Both John Millman and Taro Daniel are likely to be very happy with the draw after solid First Round wins.

Both victories came in straight sets for these two players, but John Millman made arguably lighter work with his opponent than Taro Daniel. However, the latter is a Lucky Loser so Daniel will feel pretty comfortable in the conditions and also that he has nothing to lose having been beaten once already in Belgrade.

Even then it is hard to make much of a case for Taro Daniel who has long struggled on the clay courts and who has lost all three matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2021. Taro Daniel has struggled to protect his serve in those three defeats and that has put pressure on his return game, one that Daniel has not been able to handle as the Japanese player has been beaten pretty routinely.

He has held just 71% of service games played on the hard courts in 2021, but that number dips to 54% when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents.

John Millman may not be one of the elite clay courters in the world, but he is a top 100 Ranked player and I think the Australian will also lean on his past successes against Taro Daniel to give him some confidence. The veteran is a fairly steady player overall and John Millman has similar numbers as Taro Daniel both behind serve and return, although four of his five clay court matches have come against top 100 Ranked opponents compared with three of ten for Taro Daniel.

That has to be factored into the numbers, while Millman has a 3-1 lead over Daniel in the head to head. None of those matches have been on the clay courts, but John Millman has had a significant edge in the returning numbers and has created more break points than Taro Daniel in all four matches.

I expect that to be the case again in this Second Round match and I do think John Millman can get past Taro Daniel. His lack of feeling for the clay courts may make this closer than some of their previous matches have been, but I think John Millman should have the majority of chances and in general has been the better clay courter of the two and I expect that to show up by the time it is all said and done.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

John Millman - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 11.52 Units (42 Units Staked, - 27.43% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 21st)

I honestly don't know where the first two days of this week have gone and my time has largely been dominated by other aspects rather than having the time to put down full thoughts on the Tennis that has been played so far this week.

I will be disappointed if I don't get back on top things by Thursday, but for now I will add my selections from the day's play below.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nikola Milojevic + 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Albert Ramos - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jaume Munar + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (April 20th)

I did say I would have a fuller post for the Tennis Picks on Tuesday, but I had a busier day than expected on Monday and once again I will just have to place my selections here on what is a day filled with Tennis matches from the four tournaments being played.

Monday was a little frustrating, but I will have a longer post on Wednesday and will update the totals for the season and the week in that thread.

MY PICKS: Holger Rune + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Carlos Alcarez Garfia - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Federico Delbonis - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Laslo Djere - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 14th)

The rain is playing havoc across Europe and the tennis events this week have not really been able to avoid it either. For the most part the ATP Stuttgart tournament has stayed on schedule, but that is not the case elsewhere on what should have been Quarter Final day at all of the events being played.

It could mean some double duty for a few of the players on Friday, but the majority of the Quarter Finals have been set and will hopefully be completed on the day.


I was disappointed with the way the Thursday selections went and a bit frustrated with some of my decision making. The good news is that those poor decisions were recognised and hopefully will be turned around before the week is up.


Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 games v Denis Kudla: The grass court season is a good time for Denis Kudla and his record on the surface is perhaps not a complete indication of how well he can play. A Semi Final run in Surbiton ended with a harsh defeat to Victor Troicki, but the American has refused to let that get him down and he has played well on his way to a Quarter Final in Stuttgart.

A battling win over Gael Monfils saw Kudla dig deep and come through a final set tie-breaker in a match that lasted close to two and a half hours. I do wonder if that is going to play some part in this Quarter Final with no rest days between matches as you have in the Grand Slams, but the quicker points on the grass does help with any recovery.

Denis Kudla has always got a real bite out of his serve on the grass and over the last couple of seasons he has proved to be someone who can use that to pressurise opponents on the return. The American is going to need all of that returning ability when he takes on Matteo Berrettini who is an improving player on the Tour and moved into the top 30 of the World Rankings.

It should mean Berrettini is in a position to be Seeded at Wimbledon and his two wins in Stuttgart have not only been impressive for who he has beaten, but also the manner in which the Italian has won. Wins over Nick Kyrgios and Karen Khachanov have come in straight sets and Berretini has not faced a break point in either match as the big serve has set him up to control points from the off.

He is getting plenty out of the return too and I do think Berrettini can outhit Kudla in this big serving match. I am anticipating both players to run through some service games without too many issues, but Berrettini is someone who looks like he could be a comfortable grass courter and with the right draw at Wimbledon he may be able to earn plenty of Ranking points too.

Both players will be familiar with one another as they play for the sixth time since the Australian Open in January 2018. So far it is Kudla who leads 3-2, but the two matches in 2019 have been split and Berrettini has looked the better player without quite winning both matches.

Those two matches have come on different surfaces with Kudla winning a hard court match and Berrettini winning on the clay. Those results might have been expected, but it is Berrettini who looked stronger behind serve in both matches, but he was not able to deal with the pressurised break points as well as he would have liked. That could be a problem on the grass where it is so hard to retrieve breaks of serve, but I think Berrettini can edge past Kudla in this one and he may have enough to cover this number too.


Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After missing the entire clay court season, Milos Raonic must be happy that he is back and winning matches on the Tour. The next month is important for him to prevent a slide down the World Rankings with plenty of points to defend, and that includes a run to the Final in Stuttgart twelve months ago.

The Canadian has beaten Alexei Popyrin and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on his way to the Quarter Final, but both matches have taken three sets and Raonic has spent plenty of time on the court. That has to be a concern for a player who has been off the Tour for as long as Raonic has been, but he is serving very well and that is always going to put some pressure on opponents.

In this tournament Raonic has held 97% of the service games he has played and he is someone whose serve has always been the most effective on this surface. The only reason matches have not been that straight-forward for Raonic is his poor returning numbers so far, but he may get a few more chances against Marton Fucsovics.

All credit has to be given to Fucsovics who has beaten Jaume Munar and Nikoloz Basilashvili and who has held 85% of the service games he has played. However it should be noted that this number is far above his usual levels produced on the grass courts and I do think he will eventually see it come down to a more consistent standard that Fucsovics has been able to produce.

His returning is superior to Raonic's, but Fucsovics will have to show he has learnt plenty from the 6-4, 6-2 defeat suffered to the Canadian on this court twelve months ago. On that day Fucsovics could not get his teeth into the Raonic serve at all and it was the higher Ranked player who was more comfortable when it came to the return and I do think something similar could occur in this Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the amount of time Raonic has spent on the court on his return to the Tour, but I think the serve does make his life easier. If Raonic continues to find his marks as he has been, I think he will have the majority of break points and can have one of his more straight-forward wins of the week.


Borna Coric - 2.5 games v Christian Garin: There was a time when Borna Coric was perhaps not at his most comfortable on the grass courts, but in 2019 he is looking to follow on from his most successful year on the surface. I have mentioned before that the small sample from the three or four tournaments on the grass can make it difficult to really get a good read of how players can and have been performing on the surface, but the signs for the young Croatian are good.

Last year he reached the Final in Halle and I think it may be a positive sign that he has taken in the tournament in Hertogenbosch. My feeling is that Coric does believe he can perform well enough on the grass if he gives himself time to get a few matches under his belt and the come from behind win over Taylor Fritz will boost the mindset.

Borna Coric played well in that match and his serve proved to be a key weapon, while his return is always going to be one that can put opponents under pressure.

In this Quarter Final Coric is taking on Christian Garin who is another young, improving player on the Tour. In the last couple of years Garin has only played at Wimbledon with his Ranking giving him a place in the main draw, but defeats in the First Round each time suggested he might not be at his best on the grass.

I am still not quite sure how comfortable Garin is on the grass, but back to back wins in Hertogenbosch will help. His serve is perhaps not as effective as Coric's, but Garin has been returning very well in his two matches here with breaks of serve in 45% of return games played.

Again I will mention the relatively small sample and the percentage of points won on the return are markedly up on his previous performances on the surface. I am not sure Garin will have the same kind of success when he faces Borna Coric whose serve should set him up a little better than Garin over the course of this match.

It could be a fun match with both players capable on the return, but I think Coric is the superior grass courter and he can show that with a win and a cover of this spread.

MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-9, - 5.74 Units (32 Units Staked, - 17.94% Yield)