Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 20th June)

It has been a difficult couple of days for the Tennis Picks, but there is still every chance of ending this week on a positive.

All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday and this is the busiest day of the week for the Tennis Picks and one that may just determine whether it is a bounce back seven days for the selections or not.

Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: When this Quarter Final was set and the markets were released, Leylah Fernandez had been set as the underdog, but that is far from the case now.

It felt like the wrong way round considering the previous form these two players have displayed on the grass courts and Leylah Fernandez should have enough to reach the Semi Final in Nottingham.

She is a strange player- once in a while there is a big run, but Fernandez has struggled for consistency over the last twelve months and the 32-26 record highlights that. However, she is still the World Number 30 and the lefty has a decent game for the grass courts, although her best run at Wimbledon is reaching the Third Round last year.

During that summer on this surface, Leylah Fernandez also reached the Quarter Final in Birmingham and Final in Eastbourne, while her loss last week to Tatjana Maria at Queen's Club doesn't look nearly as bad considering the veteran went on to lift the title.

Both wins in Nottingham have been deserved, and Leylah Fernandez looks to be in good shape as she prepares to try and beat Dayana Yastremska for a third time on the pro Tour.

Any player that puts a couple of wins on the board at a tournament will be feeling confident, but Dayana Yastremska has bailed herself out of some tough spots. Continuing to face the Break Points and coming out on top is tough for any professional player and Yastremska is likely going to have to deal with a few more on serve in this Quarter Final.

In recent years Dayana Yastremska has been solid, if unspectacular, on the grass courts and this is a considerable step in terms of level of opponent compared with the Second Round win. Even in the previous two matches, the serve has been a little vulnerable and that should give the Canadian the edge in this Quarter Final and especially with the mental advantage of knowing she has beaten Yastremska twice previously.

Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina over 22.5 games: Would it surprise anyone if in three weeks time Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are the last two standing in the Ladies tournament at Wimbledon?

Both players have had plenty of success on the grass and they have all of the weapons needed for another deep run at SW19.

It is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line by winning the title at Wimbledon, but the motivation will be very high in the Aryna Sabalenka camp to see their player join her in the winner's enclosure. Both Grand Slam runs have ended in the Final in Melbourne and Paris and the World Number 1 will be desperate to have at least one major title under her belt before heading back to New York City in August.

The one grass court match played underlined Aryna Sabalenka's capabilities on the serve, but it is the return that will be tested.

We can the exact same for Elena Rybakina who has a huge serve for this surface, but who has not been returning as well as she would have liked in her matches on the grass in 2025. The returning numbers can be picked up a little bit, but the Rybakina serve has been important for her and helped the World Number 11 win three of the four matches played on grass this season.

Matches between these players are usually very competitive and this Quarter Final could very much trend in that direction.

All six of the wins produced by Aryna Sabalenka have been in three set matches, while the straight set wins have been earned by Elena Rybakina in three of her four wins in this rivalry. However, only two of the ten matches played between these players has ended with less than 23 games shared out and both have the capabilities of serving well enough to secure at least a set each or, at the very least, push this into two tight, competitive sets that perhaps need at least one tie-breaker.

Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: He made harder work of his win over Alexei Popyrin than anticipated, but Jack Draper did win and there will be a lot of hope and belief that the British Number 1 can enjoy a big two weeks at Wimbledon.

The draw will be key, but Jack Draper is a confident player on the grass and his numbers have been impressive over the last twelve months.

My one concern with backing Draper is that I can't remember being on the right side of too many of his matches, including that Second Round contest a couple of days ago.

He is a capable server and so Jack Draper will believe he can contain the threat of Brandon Nakashima and try and build some scoreboard pressure on the 23 year old American. Much like Draper, Brandon Nakashima has shown he can produce some real quality on the grass courts, although he has perhaps not had the big wins to really boost the confidence on the surface.

The serve can be a potent weapon for Brandon Nakashima too, but Alexander Zverev was able to string enough points together to break him twice in Stuttgart last week. Twelve months ago it was Jack Draper finding the breaks of serve at the same tournament to comfortably progress past Nakashima and the British player has won the last two matches between them on the Tour.

One poor service game let Jack Draper down as far as the handicap was concerned in the Second Round, but he may have a bit more success in this Quarter Final on the return and that could see him cover.

Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: The World Number 9 has only just turned 22 years old and that should mean we have yet to see the very best tennis from Holger Rune.

Last year he reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and Holger Rune has shown he has the tennis that is needed to be a successful grass court contender. That run was ended by Novak Djokovic, but Rune may be hoping for better in 2025 with a potentially clearer draw into the Quarter Final and from there his confidence will be in a good place.

Two solid wins have been put together at Queen's to reach the Quarter Final and Holger Rune deserves to be the favourite against veteran Roberto Bautista Agut.

A former top ten Ranked player in his own right, Roberto Bautista Agut has slipped outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and there has been a decline in his performances over the last twelve months. However, the Spaniard is coming into the grass court season still believing he can be competitive on this surface thanks to his experience and previous successes.

He was beaten early in Hertogenbosch, but Roberto Bautista Agut has come through two matches at Queen's in three sets and that does display some confidence.

Of course he is going to have to be better to beat someone like Holger Rune who has won all three of their previous matches on the Tour.

One of those wins came at the French Open last month and Holger Rune looks to be the superior return player of the two, which may be decisive on this surface. Both have been serving well, but the younger player will have more in the tank and that should see the Dane come through with a solid victory to take his place in the Semi Final in West London on Saturday.

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The United States have always been able to produce very effective grass court tennis players, even if the majority are built up on the hard courts. Movement is the one aspect that is perhaps hardest to understand, but the grass allows the big-serving American players to put plenty of pressure on the opponent.

It feels like 20 year old Alex Michelsen is going to be a solid grass courter in the years ahead having reached the Final in Newport twice in a row and picking up plenty of wins in the warm up tournaments being held in Europe ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season.

He has won two more here in Halle, including upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round and Alex Michelsen will feel he can frustrate Daniil Medvedev if he is serving as well as he can.

In his relatively short grass court career, Alex Michelsen has won 67% of the points played and that is always going to give him a chance to use the scoreboard to make the opponent feel under pressure. He will feel there is room for improvement when it comes to the return and that will be tested by someone like Daniil Medvedev, especially after producing two solid wins in the main draw.

There was a time when Medvedev did not like playing on this surface, but the last couple of years have been much stronger and his serve can be just as effective as the one that Michelsen will bring onto the court.

Daniil Medvedev is another player who will feel there is more to come from the return, but he has looked better in that aspect this past few days in Halle. He has the capabilities of coming through a tight first set to break the back of the match and Daniil Medvedev can reach the Semi Final with a solid win under his belt.

MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Aryna Sabalenka- Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 6-5, - 0.16 Units (11 Units Staked, - 1.45% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 19th June)

The majority of the selections made this week have followed the numbers- Joao Fonseca was a touch unfortunate, but Emma Navarro struggled for much of the defeat to Paula Badosa and that was reflected in the final score.

Jack Draper's failure to cover is the exception.

He had four Break Point chances in the first set, but failed to convert and was punished by dropping serve to lose that set 6-3... Even after winning the second set 6-2, Draper could not find a way to cover the handicap mark and it was a match where, once again, the dominant Break Point opportunities did not result in a successful outcome.

At least Alexander Zverev came through his First Round match, even if it was a disappointing day overall.

On Thursday the Quarter Final lineup will be completed at the four tournaments being played this week and so there are plenty of matches to get through with the remainder of the Second Round all to be played.

However, it looks like the research can only identify three selections- one from Nottingham, Halle and Queen's- that can be read below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: Back to back Wimbledon titles have been secured and there are no real concerns about the ability of Carlos Alcaraz when it comes to performing on this surface.

He is also a former Champion at Queen's Club in West London and so there were real reasons to consider withdrawing from the tournament and just using a couple of exhibition events to warm up for Wimbledon.

The main reason was recovering from the emotional and physical success in Paris earlier this month- Carlos Alcaraz defended the French Open title by coming from 2-0 down in sets to defeat Jannik Sinner and there was no doubt how much energy that was needed to do that in the manner it happened.

Eventually the decision was made to play at Queen's again, and Carlos Alcaraz made a comfortable start to the tournament with a routine straight sets win over Adam Walton. The scoreboard suggested a close match, but the World Number 2 was in complete control of the contest and he can build on that.

Carlos Alcaraz faces a compatriot in the Second Round and Jaume Munar is one of those Spanish players that has struggled to have an impact on the grass.

Jaume Munar came through the First Round when Jordan Thompson had to withdraw from the match after a single set was completed, but prior to the event, the World Number 59 had a career record of 3-13 when playing on this surface. Suffice to say it is a time of the season when Jaume Munar is not at his best and it will be tough for him to challenge someone of the confidence and quality of Carlos Alcaraz.

It would be a big challenge even on Munar's favoured clay courts, but on this surface it should be a bigger edge with Carlos Alcaraz, who should feel relatively comfortable in the match up.

He should be able to get into the rallies on the return and that should see Carlos Alcaraz exert his qualities over Jaume Munar- as long as Alcaraz serves as well as he can, he should have enough about him to earn the breaks of serve needed to cover what is a pretty big line for a best of three set match on the grass.

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Last year was a disappointment for Andrey Rublev as far as the grass courts were concerned, but he was a very confident winner in the First Round. This is a player who has performed pretty well on the grass courts in the past and that crushing win over Sebastian Ofner will only have given Rublev some belief in what has been an inconsistent season.

He is next up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Halle and the World Number 63 is not someone who has a lot of grass court experience or success to call upon. His First Round win over Pedro Martinez, another Spaniard who prefers not to play on this surface, saw Tomas Martin Etcheverry improve his career record to 4-9 on the grass, but Andrey Rublev had double that number of wins in just the 2023 season alone.

An early loss in Hertogenbosch backs up the issues that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has had on the grass, but there has to be some respect for a player who gets plenty out of his serve.

On a surface like this one, serving well can keep a player in any match being played and Martin Etcheverry will certainly look to see how Andrey Rublev handles his own frustrations if the lower Ranked player is able to keep the service games ticking over.

A loss of focus when things are not going his way have held Andrey Rublev back, but he has shown enough patience on a surface like this one to produce some solid returning numbers. The way he dealt with the Sebastian Ofner serve bodes well for Rublev, especially if he can continue to serve at the level he was showing in the First Round.

When these two met on the hard courts in Canada last summer in the build up to the US Open, Andrey Rublev did display that patience to come through a tough first set before moving clear in the second. He may need something similar in this match in Halle, but Andrey Rublev can eventually make his superior grass court qualities display that on the final scoreboard.

Sonay Kartal + 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: All credit has to be given to Sonay Kartal for the year she has put together, which means coming into this tournament as the World Number 50, her career best World Ranking mark. It also means direct entry into the main draw at Wimbledon, where she reached the Third Round last year and the 23 year old will feel there is more to come.

She will certainly want to get up to the kind of level that Katie Boulter has reached as the two British players prepare to face off in the Second Round in Nottingham.

Losing to Amanda Anisimova at Queen's last week will have been a blow for Sonay Kartal, although the form of the American cannot be dismissed. In the same tournament Katie Boulter was not able to build on taking the opening set against Diana Shnaider, but the World Number 39 looked pretty comfortable in her opening win here in Nottingham.

Both are pretty comfortable on the grass courts, which is no surprise, but it has been mentioned before that Katie Boulter has struggled for big wins on the surface.

That is not the case for Sonay Kartal, who beat the World Number 16 last week and who upset a couple of top 50 Ranked players in her run at Wimbledon last year.

Their sole previous match up on the Tour ended in a three set win for Katie Boulter on the grass courts of Surbiton a couple of years ago, but Sonay Kartal was much lower in the World Rankings on that occasion. There is not so much between them now and Sonay Kartal has the grass court qualities to at least keep this one competitive with the games being given to her.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Sonay Kartal + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 1.04 Units (8 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 11th)

A late retirement in the final match in Stuttgart put a dampener on the day for the Tennis Picks and it would have helped considering the results that had come in.

The Andy Murray win over Stefanos Tsitsipas was impressive in that tournament and he sets up a big Semi Final against Nick Kyrgios, while the grass court season feels firmly underway as we are days away from the really big events starting before Wimbledon gets going.

We are down to the business end of the events in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart before that and I am looking for a strong close to the tournaments that have been played this week.

Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final in Stuttgart looks like it could be a serve-dominated outing and I am a little surprised that the layers are offering a total games line at the number they have.

My feeling was the line would be at least a game higher than where it stands right now and I would not have been massively surprised if it was set two games higher, but I think these two have the serving capability of covering this line even if one of the two were to win this match in straight sets.

Oscar Otte didn't have to pick up his racquet in the Quarter Final when given a walkover by Benjamin Bonzi, while Matteo Berrettini needed three sets for a second match in a row as he got the better of his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego. It does mean the top Seed here has spent more time of the court than Oscar Otte even though both have played two matches in the draw, but you can understand why Matteo Berrettini has been set as the favourite having played so well on the grass courts in 2021 and also looking like a much more effective return player in the two matches played in Stuttgart.

While the numbers don't bounce off the page, Matteo Berrettini did create at least six break points in both wins this week and he has broken serve at least twice. He has done that despite winning 33% of return points played, but shows a player who has been able to focus on the games he has needed to in order to make the break.

It is far more impressive than Oscar Otte's return numbers having broken in 4% of return games played compared with Berrettini's 18% mark, while the home hope has only won 24% of points against the serve.

The pressure will be on Oscar Otte to make sure he serves well and he has won 77% of his service points played in his two wins this week, while has only been broken once. That serve can be highly effective when Otte gets into a roll and I think he can force at least one tie-breaker which can only a long way to clearing this total.

Matteo Berrettini is still finding his way after a long absence from the Tour and has won 68% of service points played which has led to 92% of service games being held. The Italian has to feel he can contain Oscar Otte and have a go on the return games, but it feels like a match that will be dominated by two big servers and it may lead to a long match in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.

In their two previous matches, Matteo Berrettini has found a way to get into the Oscar Otte service games, but both of those were in Grand Slam tournaments and he still needed four sets to get past this opponent on both occasions. He has had a significant edge on the serve over this opponent in the head to head so I do favour Berrettini to come through, but it may be after two close sets are concluded.

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 22.5 games: Having a career best World Ranking of Number 175 would be pretty successful in most fields, but in tennis it means a player has not really been able to push on in their career as they would have liked.

At 25 years old, Tim Van Rijthoven may have felt his career was stagnating, but he did reach that career high World Ranking a couple of months ago.

And this week he is having the very best time in a home ATP event that will provide him with the Ranking points to push his personal Ranking up to Number 153 having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch. He has been serving lights out on the grass courts and I do think it is a part of his game that will give him a chance to push Felix Auger-Aliassime on this surface.

The Canadian is having another solid week on the Tour and I think reaching the ATP Finals in Turin has to be a real aim for Felix Auger-Aliassime who is finding more consistency in his level in each week. His serve has been a big weapon for him in his two wins in this tournament, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has struggled for an effective return and that is where Tim Van Rijthoven should have a chance of being competitive.

His own return has not been the most effective, but Tim Van Rijthoven has to be confident with the kind of serves has has been delivering.

It certainly suggests the two players can roll through service games and combine to cover this total games line, which is another that could have been set at least one game higher than where the line is.

Tie-breakers could be needed to separate the two players with both winning 74% of service points played this week which has led to 95% of service games behind held. Neither of these players have been in great form on the return, and Tim Van Rijthoven and Felix Auger-Aliassime have only given up thirteen break points combined.

Of course it will depend on how well they can deal with those pressurised moments and it can see the match quickly running away from one of these players. However, the two have combined for just thirteen break points so far this week with their largely limited return performances and I will look for this Semi Final in Hertogenbosch to have enough games to cover this total set.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 22.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tereza Martincova @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-15, - 2.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 3.52% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 10th)

We should be able to complete the tournaments in the manner we would want this week with better weather expected this weekend.

Shuai Zhang v Tereza Martincova: The rain in all of the events being played this week means the line up for the Quarter Finals are still taking shape.

All of the events are hoping to be back on schedule by Friday, but it is not certain that will be the case and this Quarter Final in Nottingham may be on late in the afternoon. At least both Shuai Zhang and Tereza Martincova can prepare for this match knowing who they will be facing and both players are enjoying their return to Nottingham.

Both played here in 2021 and Shuai Zhang ended up as the Runner Up, while Tereza Martincova was beaten in the Quarter Final. After disappointing showings on the clay courts, both will also have welcomed the move into the grass court season after strong displays last season and neither player has dropped a set on their way to the Quarter Final.

It should be noted that Shuai Zhang has benefited from the draw a little more than Tereza Martincova.

While the Runner Up from last season has beaten two players that are Ranked 128 in the World Rankings or lower, Tereza Martincova has two top 85 wins. Her performances have been more impressive of the two as well with the Czech player only facing two break points in her two matches combined and that has helped Martincova build scoreboard pressure on her opponents.

The returning in the first match against Oceane Dodin wasn't very impressive, but Tereza Martincova was much better in her win over Magda Linette and it feels she could be the more battle-hardened for this Quarter Final.

Take nothing away from Shuai Zhang who has long been comfortable on the grass courts, but she did not back up her run in Nottingham in 2021 in the manner she would have wanted. She has looked very solid in Nottingham this year too and clearly enjoys playing this tournament, but Shuai Zhang has not been as convincing in her wins and I do think her second serve could be vulnerable to Tereza Martincova.

Shuai Zhang has been returning very well though and that has to be encouraging for her, while I think she can step up her performance against a better player. Her wins have been solid enough this week, and the returning aspect of her tennis makes her dangerous for Tereza Martincova who has won 37% of return points in her two matches compared with Shaui Zhang's 45% mark.

It will be a close and competitive Quarter Final and I would not be surprised if we need a decider to determine the winner, but I do think the underdog's returning ability can see her edge to the win.

MY PICKS: Shuai Zhang @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia + 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alison Van Uytvanck + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Caty McNally + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Nick Kyrgios - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Gams @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-11, + 2.90 Units (50 Units Staked, + 5.80% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 9th)

Wet weather has forced a number of matches to be postponed until Thursday and it is vital for all of the tournaments being played that they get back on track.

Some of those events are starting earlier than usual in a bid to avoid having players forced to play twice in the same day to ensure we have a Sunday finish. The weather looks very good at all of the events going into the weekend, but Thursday could be another challenging day for players who have to wait around and hope there are enough windows of play to get their matches completed.

Andy Murray - 1.5 games v Alexander Bublik: After deciding to skip the majority of the clay court season, Andy Murray is back on the grass courts where he was once as good as anybody on the Tour. At this stage of his career, Andy Murray is no longer one of the favourites to win Wimbledon, but he does feel he can still have a big impact on a surface that is largely unfamiliar to many on the Tour.

With that in mind, Andy Murray has chosen to play as many tournaments as he can on the grass and that included taking part in a Challenger event in Surbiton last week. He reached the Semi Final there before a close defeat to Denis Kudla, but it also served as a reminder that Murray is not the force he once was on the Tour in general.

Needing as much court time as he can find, Andy Murray has decided to head out of Britain for a grass court appearance and reached the Second Round in Stuttgart behind a strong win. He will be the first to admit that the level of opponent moves up significantly in this Round, but Andy Murray will be familiar with what Alexander Bublik can bring to the table having played him twice already in 2022.

Those two previous matches have been split with one win apiece, but this match is being played on a grass court on which Andy Murray may feel he has a real edge.

However, Alexander Bublik has a game that can be dangerous on the grass courts and he was a very comfortable winner over the aforementioned Denis Kudla in the First Round thanks to the serve. He won 76% of points played behind serve and that built up the scoreboard pressure that eventually saw Bublik crack through and win in straight sets.

Alexander Bublik enjoyed a couple of solid grass court runs in 2021 too having held 88% of the service games played in the eleven matches played on the surface and I do think he will go as far as his serve can take him. It helps build scoreboard pressure and makes up for what has been a pretty limited return game.

There is enough from the return to give Andy Murray one or two things to think about, especially as the former Wimbledon Champion admitted he would like to serve better after his First Round win over Christoper O'Connell. In saying that, Andy Murray has been able to hold 90% of his service games in the two matches against Alexander Bublik in 2022 and will feel he can generate enough returns in play to showcase his superior grass court nous.

It certainly won't be an easy match for either player with the serve likely to be crucial to their chances, but I do think Andy Murray can win the big points this time thanks to his previous grass court appearances. Another first set tie-breaker would not be a surprise, but Andy Murray can nose in front and go on and win this Second Round match as he continues his build towards Wimbledon.

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics over 22.5 games: There had been very little suggestion that Hubert Hurkacz was going to be a genuine title contender going into Wimbledon 2021.

He had limited success on the grass courts through his career to that point and Hubert Hurkacz had been beaten in his opening match in Stuttgart and Halle, but he caught fire when he set foot in SW19. A run to the Semi Final is one thing, but Hubert Hurkacz enjoyed victories over the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer before losing in four sets in the Semi Final against Matteo Berrettini and the World Number 13 will be feeling much more confident playing on the grass courts in 2022 than he would have been going into 2021.

In saying that, I do think Hubert Hurkacz has to win the fine margins if he is going to have successes on the surface. We know the serve is a potent weapon for Hurkacz on the faster surfaces and he has shown improvements behind that shot in 2018, 2019 and 2021, while he has always held a huge amount of service games on the grass courts.

However, Hubert Hurkacz has struggled on the return and managed to break in 17% of return games played on the grass in 2021, which is an improvement on previous years. That isn't a number that will intimidate too many and you have to feel that Hurkacz will be under pressure to play perfect tie-breakers if he is going to replicate the success of Wimbledon 2021.

I do think Hurkacz could have a bit more of an opportunity against Marton Fucsovics, even though the former Boys' Singles Winner at Junior Wimbledon is comfortable on the grass courts.

The Hungarian is now 30 years old and he has struggled for consistency on the grass courts with a serve that can be vulnerable when offering up too many second serves to attack. While the return of serve is pretty effective on the grass courts, Marton Fucsovics has held only 79% of his service games on a surface which should favour the server and that is a concern when the scoreboard pressure is ramped up in this kind of match.

Marton Fucsovics did reach the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and he was a strong First Round winner in Stuttgart so he should not be lacking for confidence. The serve worked well in the First Round and that will be encouraging as Marton Fucsovics takes on an opponent he has beaten in their two previous matches, although those were played in 2018 and Fucsovics and Hubert Hurkacz may have crossed one another in terms of ability since then.

Both players should feel they can serve well enough to push the other and I would not be surprised to see this match needing at least one tie-breaker to begin to separate them. The limited returning of Hubert Hurkacz could mean this is a match that is dominated by each server and I think they can combine to surpass this total games line set.

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker over 22.5 games: A disappointing French Open is behind Stefanos Tsitsipas and there is little time to regret the relatively early defeat in the second Grand Slam of the season. Despite being in the weaker half of the draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas seemed to struggle with the pressure and he has dropped into World Number 5 after the tournament was concluded.

Now he has to go into the grass court season with the short build towards the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon and this has not been a very enjoyable time of the year for the Greek player.

The 2019 season on the grass has been the exception to the rule, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has largely had average numbers and results on the surface and his First Round defeat at Wimbledon last year was concerning. He may have been undercooked for the grass court Slam after finishing Runner Up at Roland Garros and not taking in any warm up events before Wimbledon began, but this year is looking to be different.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will get his Stuttgart campaign going in the Second Round having received a Bye in the First Round as the top Seed in the draw, while he is expected to play in Halle next week.

His serve is effective on the grass courts and I do think that will give him a chance to put wins on the board, but the big challenge for Stefanos Tsitsipas is improving the return. It is a part of his game that has shown some improvement on the hard courts, but Dominic Stricker can put Tsitsipas under pressure with his own serve that helped him through a difficult First Round match.

Dominic Stricker has served pretty well in his limited grass court matches and upset Hubert Hurkacz here in Stuttgart twelve months ago. He is facing an opponent in Stefanos Tsitsipas who has broken in just 14% of return games in his career grass court matches and who will have some adjustments to make in his first grass court match in 2022.

The return game has been an issue for Dominic Stricker on this surface too and I do think this could be a relatively tight couple of sets played with the serve expected to be on top. If the match was played later in the grass court season, Stefanos Tsitsipas may be expected to really get on top of the return, but this may take some time to adjust on Thursday in the Second Round in Stuttgart and we may need a tie-breaker, or even two, to separate the two on the day.

The total game line isn't short, but it looks in a good place for these players to combine and surpass with the serves expected to be on top and I will look for that to be the outcome of this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz-Marton Fucsovics Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas-Dominic Stricker Over 22.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ilya Ivashka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-5, + 0.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 3.55% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 8th)

Wet weather has meant some of the tournaments are struggling to remain on track this week, but for the most part the events in s'Hertogenbosch, Stuttgart and Nottingham are where they need to be.

Conditions look warmer towards the end of the week, but it could be another wet Wednesday which will mean rain delays and matches perhaps being held over to Thursday. As long as the Second Round matches are completed by Thursday evening, all of these events should be able to be completed without the need for anyone to win twice in a single day.

The format of some of the events being played this week means there have been Byes offered out to the top names that have chosen to take part in the days following the end of the French Open.

Some of those are due out on the courts on Wednesday, including a returning Matteo Berrettini who missed the entirety of the clay court season and who has not played since the Indian Wells Masters in March. The Italian is going to suffer a significant drop in the World Rankings in the weeks ahead having won the title at Queens Club last year and followed up with a Runner Up spot at Wimbledon, but his foremost focus will be to get healthier and return to his best tennis as soon as possible.

Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Injury forced Jan-Lennard Struff to miss the clay court season and he had last been in action at the Miami Masters in March. The clay courts have been a productive surface for the German so it would have been a blow to miss the last two months, but Jan-Lennard Struff returned in Stuttgart and battled very hard to win his First Round match in three tight sets.

His World Ranking has slipped back outside the top 100 after a 1-9 start to the season with Jan-Lennard Struff losing nine matches in a row before deciding he needed to reset before returning to the Tour.

Whatever had been ailing Jan-Lennard Struff saw him fail to complete his match in Miami and you have to imagine there has been a slight loss of confidence with the losses piling up.

The win in the First Round here will offer a boost, but Jan-Lennard Struff was forced to spend over two hours on the court and it will be a tough recovery time for someone who has been off the Tour for as long as he has.

Facing someone like Lorenzo Sonego will be an additional challenge after the Italian found a liking to the grass courts in 2019. He backed that up with an impressive 2021 on the grass too and Lorenzo Sonego has beaten Benoit Paire in the First Round, an opponent who should be well suited to the surface.

Jan-Lennard Struff has largely not enjoyed his time on the grass courts- he gets more out of the serve, but his return has really been impacted on the surface and Struff is not likely to get much change out of the Lorenzo Sonego serve.

The higher Ranked player has a considerable edge on the return of serve on this surface and I think that makes the difference for Lorenzo Sonego who can book his place in the Stuttgart Quarter Final.

Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: If you are solely basing Denis Shapovalov's ability to play on the grass courts from his attributes, you would think he has a pretty solid game to play on this surface.

After a couple of seasons where the lefty failed to make a big impact in grass court tournaments, Denis Shapovalov reached the Semi Final at both Queens Club and Wimbledon in 2021 having been a Quarter Finalist in Stuttgart. The defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final was after three hugely competitive sets and Denis Shapovalov may be looking forward to returning onto this surface after a disappointing First Round loss at Roland Garros.

Take away the upset over a limping Rafael Nadal in Rome and you would have to say the clay court season was a disappointment overall for the young Canadian who has yet to really deliver on the promise he has.

While the serve remains a big weapon for him, Denis Shapovalov has struggled with his return and the best approach to that part of his tennis and it is especially telling when you play on the faster surfaces. A first match back on the grass courts could also mean an adjustment period for Denis Shapovalov and I do thin he could have asked for an easier match than facing home player Oscar Otte.

The German was a deserved winner in the First Round against his compatriot and Oscar Otte reached the Second Round at Wimbledon last year after coming through the Qualifiers. That was the sole grass court tournament played by Otte, but he has improved his World Ranking over the last twelve months and that earned him direct entry into the Stuttgart main draw.

It was the serve that proved to be a big weapon for Oscar Otte in his run in SW19, and he will need to use that shot to try and put his higher Ranked opponent under pressure. Serving well could also frustrate Denis Shapovalov who has not been winning consistently and Oscar Otte has held 90% of his service games played on the grass over the last twelve months.

Last season it was Andy Murray who took five sets to end the Otte run and I do think his numbers have largely been produced against players Ranked much lower than Denis Shapovalov. However, he is facing someone who has had issues with his own return and a first match on the surface could leave Denis Shapovalov a little vulnerable if Oscar Otte serves anywhere near where he can.

I do think Shapovalov will be rolling through plenty of his service games too, and the feeling is that this Second Round match could go plenty long. With at least one tie-breaker expected, I think two strong servers can get through service games quickly enough to move into a position to cover this number of games set for the total.

MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Camila Giorgi - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kamil Majchrzak + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.88 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 7th)

The grass court season has begun and the Tennis Picks will be focused on those events for the remainder of the month and into early July.

Bigger events are going to be played next week, but there are a number of tournaments scheduled for this week as players look to get some experience under their belt in what is the shortest part of the year on a single surface.

Rain is the biggest threat to the tournaments this week with even a little amount making it a very slippery and dangerous surface on which to play. It does look a wet week at all of the events and that will force players to win two matches in a single day to keep the events on track.

Maxime Cressy-Dominic Stricker over 23.5 games: The courts in Stuttgart are playing pretty quickly in the early Rounds of the grass court season and this is a match that features two players that will be confident in their serve. Maxime Cressy is playing his first match back on the surface since the grass court season in 2021 and it is a dangerous time to face a Qualifier in Dominic Stricker who beat Aslan Karatsev in one of two wins to take his place in the main draw.

Last year the 20 year old Swiss player was given a direct spot in the main draw in Stuttgart and he reached the Quarter Final before losing to a grass court specialist in Sam Querrey. On his way, Dominic Stricker beat Radu Albot and Hubert Hurkacz with the latter win looking particularly impressive when you think the big serving Polish player reached the Wimbledon Semi Final just a few weeks later.

He was well beaten in Halle, but Dominic Stricker will feel pretty happy back on the grass having earned those two wins in the Qualifiers too. He has won 66% of his service points behind serve and that has led to 82% of service games being held on the surface and I do think the lefty will cause problems for Maxime Cressy who has struggled as a return player on the grass courts in his limited time on the surface.

The American has only won 31% of return points played in his nine previous grass court matches and Cressy has only broken serve in 13% of return games played. I expect Dominic Stricker to be able to have plenty of success behind his serve in this one, although the challenge for the Swiss player is trying to pressure the Maxime Cressy serve.

Maxime Cressy has been slightly more effective behind serve than Stricker with 68% of service points won in grass court matches and that has led to holds in 87% of service games played.

Like his opponent in the First Round, Dominic Stricker has had a tough time getting to grips with the return of serve and has only broken in 19% of his return games played in the six grass court matches played in his young career. That number has been significantly boosted by his strong player in the Qualifiers in this tournament, but I do think the server is going to be on top in this one.

Last season, Dominic Stricker played three matches in Stuttgart and the first two sets in each of those went to a tie-breaker. I think he will serve well enough to be competitive, but the same can be said for Maxime Cressy and it may lead to a First Round match that surpasses what is a big total line set for this one.

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: Two Frenchmen are coming off disappointing showings at their home Grand Slam, but there is a feeling that Ugo Humbert is going to be much happier being back on the grass rather than on the clay courts.

It has been a difficult season for Ugo Humbert who had been as high as Number 25 in the World Rankings twelve months ago, but who has slipped back to Number 48.

That means he will be under pressure in this grass court season considering Ugo Humbert reached the Quarter Final here in Stuttgart before winning a major title in Halle. That means he has plenty of points to defend to avoid another significant drop down the World Rankings, but Humbert has enjoyed playing on the grass courts where is serve and ability to get to the net are very effective.

He is much more experienced than Arthur Rinderknech who is playing in his third ever grass court match, but who is also only a few places behind Humbert in the World Rankings having had a more consistent season.

Last season Arthur Rinderknech went 1-1 in Halle and the numbers are from a very small sample and hard to really judge.

However, I do think Rinderknech has shown his serve can be effective on the hard courts and he should be able to earn plenty of free points on this surface, although the return is not one of any real note. It is the return where Ugo Humbert could be able to exert some scoreboard pressure by putting Arthur Rinderknech under the cosh when it comes to the returning aspect of his tennis and I do think Ugo Humbert can get off to a strong start.

The higher Ranked Frenchman is not exactly known for his own return on the grass courts, but I do think he will find the one break he may need to cover this mark and I will back him to do that in the First Round in Stuttgart.

MY PICKS: Maxime Cressy-Dominic Stricker Over 24.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ugo Humbert - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Katie Boulter - 0.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.36 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2022 (June 6th)

The clay court swing has come to a close for a few weeks as the French Open was concluded this past weekend, but the Tour carries on and the grass court season has already begun.

Last week there were a couple of tournaments in the Challenger and ITF level that were played on the grass, but the main build towards Wimbledon will begin this week with tournaments in Stuttgart, Nottingham and s'Hertogenbosch all getting going.

Most of the very top names are not playing, but there are plenty who are getting their preparations for Wimbledon underway before the bigger events in London, Halle and Birmingham next week.

MY PICKS: Oscar Otte - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Marcos Giron - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Soon Woo Kwon - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Heather Watson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jodie Burrage + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 16th)

At this time it is going to be hard to put down my full analysis for the Tennis matches being played over the weekend.

After another positive day with Friday producing a positive return I have a few Tennis Picks for Saturday as we get to the Semi Final matches at the events being played this past week.


MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units

Weekly Update: 17-9, + 11.62 Units (52 Units Staked, + 22.35% Yield

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 15th)

After a mixed Wednesday, Thursday proved to be another effective day of Tennis Picks with the five completed matches returning four winners.

One of the matches, Kirsten Flipkens vs Kiki Bertens, was postponed until Friday in Hertogenbosch as the weather has affected the WTA tournament being played there. That is one of a couple of matches that has to be competed on Friday in the Second Round with the winning player scheduled to play again later in the day in the Quarter Final.

The rest of the tournaments being played this week have all reached the Quarter Final Round and there are plenty of matches scheduled for Friday as all of those tournaments reach the business end of the week.


Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: It is going to be very interesting to see the development of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the years ahead, but I think he is being priced up in this Quarter Final as someone who has already begun to prove himself on all surfaces.

All credit has to be given to Tsitsipas for what was a strong run on the clay courts which is an important step in his development, but he is yet to show he can consistently produce on the other surfaces. Playing on the grass courts are perhaps the steepest of the learning curves for players who are not accustomed to the surface and Tsitsipas is going to get a tough lesson from Richard Gasquet on Friday.

You have to also respect the fact that Tsitsipas has won two matches here, but both have come against players who are someway inferior to Gasquet on the grass courts and both wins were closer than the youngster would have liked. While it is important to show you can win matches when not at your best, but this is just the seventh match Tsitsipas will have played on grass and I think Gasquet exposes that.

While his opponent is learning and perhaps been a little fortunate to get past Malek Jaziri on Thursday, Gasquet was a dominant winner. Over the years it could be argued that the grass courts are the favourite surface for Gasquet who has a quality slice and strong numbers in both the serve and return department.

Gasquet won't be as strong as he was in his win over Evgeny Donskoy in every match, but he is someone who will feel he can produce enough variation on the grass to give Tsitsipas some tough looks to deal with. The Frenchman returns well enough to get more joy against the Tsitsipas serve than his last two opponents have, while Tsitsipas' 15% career break percentage on the grass courts have only been improved slightly by his 17% break percentage in his first two matches against players who simply don't play as well as Gasquet.

This could be a good looking match for the fans, but Gasquet should have the edge and I think he wins and covers a number I expected to be a little higher.


Denis Istomin-Lucas Pouille over 22.5 games: Two players who have enjoyed playing on the grass courts in their careers and who come into this Quarter Final with some solid wins behind them meet on Friday in Stuttgart.

The Denis Istomin wins over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Florian Mayer are made all the more impressive when you see the fashion in which he controlled the matches against two very good grass court players. You could say that both German veterans have declined in general, but on this surface they are not an easy out yet Istomin was the dominant winner in both matches.

Lucas Pouille is the defending Champion in Stuttgart and he was a strong winner as expected in the Second Round and I think these two players can combine for a very good match.

Istomin serves very well on the grass courts and his hold percentages have been very strong over the last few years. Where there can be some struggles for Istomin is on the returning side of the court, but if he serves as he can then it is going to be very tough for Pouille to break his game down on the grass.

That is down to the limitations that come with the Pouille returning game and is one of the main reasons I struggle to see him lasting in the top 20 of the World Rankings for the long haul. He has talent, but Pouille has to improve his break percentage to really take the next step in his career and I do think Istomin will be able to serve well enough to get through his games and into potential tie-breaker situations in the match.

The Frenchman's own serve has worked effectively on the grass in the last couple of seasons with 82% and 83% hold percentages in 2016 and 2017. With Istomin also having some problems in the returning aspect I think it will be tough for either player to retrieve a break position so there is every chance we will need a deciding set in this one.

One break may be enough to separate the two over two sets too and I will look for these two players to combine for enough holds of serve to cover the total games line, even if it is a touch on the high side.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denis Istomin-Lucas Pouille Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-7, + 9.26 Units (40 Units Staked, + 23.15% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 14th)

Yesterday was a really mixed bag for the Tennis Picks which saw all four Picks from Hertogenbosch come out on the wrong side, but the other four selections returning as winners which means it is a small loss for the day.

The week is still in a good position, but Thursday is another day to try and get on top with a number of matches looking like they fit into what I am looking for.

It isn't always the case on a week to week basis on the Tennis Tour, but the first three days have provided a number of options to back and Thursday is proving to be no different.

I've analysed the two men's selections and added the women's selections below.


Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Evgeny Donskoy: The return to the grass courts in a much healthier state than twelve months ago could be huge for Richard Gasquet who has always produced some solid results on the surface. Last season there were doubts about how he was feeling at this time of the season but Gasquet still managed to reach two Tour Semi Finals on the grass courts.

The first match on the surface can be a tough transition especially coming in off the clay courts, but Gasquet is very experienced on the grass and I don't expect it to take him too long to get his feet under him.

He can't really afford to take too much time against Evgeny Donskoy who had a very comfortable win in the First Round here. In recent years Donskoy has struggled for the consistency which could have him playing much higher up the Tour level, but he can be dangerous on the clay courts with some good looking numbers in his wins on the surface.

Donskoy has to still prove that he can bring his form from matches against players lower down the Ranking into those when he faces some of the better players around. His performance on the grass courts against opponents inside the top 100 of the World Ranking are significantly weaker than his overall numbers, while Donskoy does not get enough of the return to put his opponents under concerted pressure.

He may have some chances against the Gasquet serve which can be a little up and down especially if Donskoy sees a lot of second serves which he can attack from the off. However I would expect Gasquet to start picking the serve of Donskoy and forcing the Russian to beat him from the back of the court and I would give the Frenchman a significant edge in those rallies as they develop.

The spread is a funny number as a slow start from Gasquet could make it very difficult to cover. Donskoy also had two relatively competitive losses on the grass last year, but Gasquet could be the best player he has played on this surface and I think Gasquet will find a break more in each set of a straight sets win in this match.


Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: This is a Second Round match in Stuttgart and one in which I would have thought Feliciano Lopez would have been an even stronger favourite to win. His game is still perfectly suited to the grass courts and I would expect Lopez to have too much for Gilles Simon.

It is Lopez who leads the head to head between these players 4-2, but it more interesting to note that three of those wins have come on the grass courts including last year here in Stuttgart.

There is no doubting that Lopez is the superior player on the grass courts and his numbers have backed that up as well as the head to head between these two players. Both have had comfortable wins to get through the First Round here in Stuttgart, and it is Lopez' strong serving which has proven to be a key for him on the surface.

I do have to have some reservations about the poor returning Lopez generally displays, although 2017 was a stand out year for him on the grass courts. The Spaniard is facing an opponent who has struggled with his own return on the grass courts and I think Simon won't be able to bunt too many balls back into play with Lopez willing to get up to the net and cut off the loopy defensive shots.

The Simon serving numbers have slipped in each of the last four seasons in terms of hold percentage as well as points percentage won behind that shot. That has to be a concern for Simon who has been convincingly outplayed by Lopez in all three defeats to him on the grass courts throughout their careers.

It feels that Lopez will be able to get in front on the scoreboard and that can put enough pressure on Simon to see him crack behind his own serve a couple of times in this match. That should be good enough for Lopez to work his way to a win and a cover in this Second Round encounter as Lopez gets ready for another strong run during the grass court season.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 4.36 Units (30 Units Staked, + 14.53% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 13th)

I was out on Monday which meant I was unable to do the research I would have liked for the Tennis matches that were scheduled to be played on Tuesday and so there were no Picks yesterday.

That is not the case on Wednesday as I look to build on what was a very good Monday for the Tennis Picks which went 5-2.

With the World Cup kicking off in Russia on Thursday, I have automated my Outright Picks from that tournament to come out tomorrow and will then have the thread for the first round of Group games ready to go on Thursday with Picks added through the tournament.

At the same time I will continue to put the Tennis Picks together whenever I find matches that fit into my requirements and those will come throughout the grass court season in the build to Wimbledon.

Like Monday I will have the analysis of the men's matches I am picking from Hertogenbosch and Stuttgart and add the women's selections in the 'MY PICKS' part of the thread.


Yuichi Sugita v Marius Copil: Both men have got their grass court seasons off to strong starts with good looking wins on Monday and the layers are setting the line for this one as a pick 'em.

I can understand why Yuichi Sugita is the narrow favourite to win this match and I like the price enough to back him after doing the same in the First Round. I said at the time I leaned towards Marius Copil beating Aljaz Bedene, but I wasn't completely convinced by the relatively poor return numbers on the grass courts which were still on show in the win the big server had.

You can get carried away with how big Copil serves which should make him very tough to break down on the grass courts, but Sugita's returning is the key to this match. He has shown he can put opponents under pressure on the grass and actually beat Copil relatively comfortably on the surface last year in Surbiton.

The Sugita serve is also an underrated shot on the grass and I think he will be able to exploit the limited return game that Copil has. It should mean Sugita is going to get the better of the rallies once we get past the first couple of shots on the Copil serve and I think that does give him the edge in this Second Round match.

Scoreboard pressure could be the best way for Copil to find a way to beat Sugita but I would imagine it is the latter who has the majority of the break point chances in this match. I also think Sugita is the more effective overall player on the grass courts and he can do enough to beat Copil and move onto another Quarter Final on this surface.


Gilles Muller - 1.5 games v Matthew Ebden: The move off the clay courts and back onto the grass should be good for Gilles Muller, although the left hander could be overrated after an especially strong 2017 on the surface. Prior to that his numbers had not been as impressive, but the big serve will always make Muller dangerous.

Last year it was the returning numbers that really jumped off the page and helped Muller with a strong run at Wimbledon that saw him beat Rafael Nadal.

It was a special season for Muller on that front and I am not convinced he will replicate those on the grass courts in 2018. However the serve should remain a big weapon for him and it can be one that can put pressure on opponents to make sure they are holding onto their own serve.

Matthew Ebden will have to face that in the Second Round in Hertogenbosch, but his confidence could not be in a better place having reached the Semi Final in Surbiton last week. He played a lot of tennis and putting the wins together would have raised the belief going into a match of this magnitude for him.

The Australian had some decent numbers on the grass courts in 2017, but he was operating at a lower level than the one he is facing on Wednesday. Ebden doesn't have the best returning numbers which makes this a very tough match up for him and I do think it will be the scoreboard pressure which sees Muller get in front in this one with one break likely enough to see him through a set.

Muller's serve is also likely to be a difference maker in any tie-breaker situation which comes into the match and I like the big serving left hander to win this match and cover the number.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Fernando Verdasco: This is a very interesting grass court match, but I do think the improving youngster is perhaps a little underrated even as a convincing favourite in this match.

Daniil Medvedev didn't have a good clay court campaign, but he is much more at home on the grass courts and I expect some solid wins for him in the weeks head. He was a very good winner in the First Round when dismissing Yuki Bhambri in straight sets and getting his feet back on the grass should give him the edge over veteran Fernando Verdasco.

For the Spaniard it is a first match back on the grass courts and he has performed admirably on the surface over the years. However there has been a clear decline in the numbers over the last few years and I think that will be give Medvedev the edge in this Second Round match.

While the Verdasco serving numbers are still relatively strong, his hold percentage on the grass has dropped from 86% to 82% over the last four years to 2017 and that slippage can be very detrimental to a player whose return game has not been too hot on this surface. There was a relatively successful 17% break percentage in 2016, but the other three seasons where the serve has slipped has seen Verdasco breaking in less than 14% of games.

He may have a little more of a chance breaking the Medvedev serve, which is still developing into the kind of weapon he would like, but it is the return game from the Russian which really stands out. He has broken at 28% in 2016 and 30% in 2017 which is a very strong showing on the grass courts and Medvedev broke the Bhambri serve four times in the First Round.

Medvedev should have the edge on the returning side of the game and I think he can win this one and cover the handicap.


Maximilian Marterer - 3.5 games v Viktor Galovic: You have to be careful not to be backing Maximilian Marterer at a time when he could be potentially overrated after a strong showing at the French Open. The memorable third set performance against Rafael Nadal in the Fourth Round will have given Marterer some real confidence, but this is a new surface and a new tournament for the youngster searching for some consistency.

I do think he can get the better of Lucky Loser Viktor Galovic who is playing his third grass court match in his career. He didn't play badly in Qualifying which suggests this is going to be far from an easy match for Marterer, but I do think Galovic could have his problems against the lefty too.

Marterer had some decent performances on the grass twelve months ago and a strong serve can give him the chance to go on the attack on the return of serve. His opponent allowed Denis Kudla to create 19 break point opportunities in the final Qualifying Round here in Stuttgart and Golovic is likely to be put under some pressure from Marterer who had a decent 20% break percentage on the grass in 2017.

That was from a relatively small sample but Marterer will have the crowd support behind him which can see him come through this match.

He is also 3-0 against Golovic in previous matches including at the US Open Qualifiers last August and I think he can improve that record with a win on Wednesday.


Benoit Paire v Taylor Fritz: This is a virtual pick 'em in the First Round in Stuttgart but I am going to give the edge to the Frenchman to reverse his loss to Taylor Fritz from the Indian Wells Masters in 2017.

One concern is that this is the first match on the grass for Benoit Paire in 2018 compared with Taylor Fritz who won three matches in Surbiton last week as he came through the Qualifiers there. The American has a strong serve which has to be respected, but Fritz has yet to get to grips with the returning aspect on the grass courts and that could be an issue in this match against Paire.

It is Paire who has the stronger returning numbers on the grass courts, but he hadn't had a lot of success on the surface prior to 2017. Last season was a different story though as Paire produced a combined 107% hold/break percentage on the grass and he should have the edge over Fritz.

Fritz is now just 7-11 on the grass courts in his young career and I like Paire even if he can be a tough player to trust on any given day to perform at his best.

In this one Paire should be good enough to at least create the majority of the break point opportunities and I like him to win this match at a tournament where he reached the Semi Final last year.


Mischa Zverev + 4.5 games v Roger Federer: He's back.

Roger Federer skipped the clay court season to make sure he is at peak fitness for the Wimbledon and US Open tournaments where the Swiss superstar believes he can win and add to his tally of Grand Slam titles. There are a huge number of points for Federer to defend in the coming weeks, but he looks the favourite for another title at Wimbledon next month.

However it can't be ignored that Federer made a slow start to the grass court season in 2017 when he was beaten in the Second Round in Stuttgart which was his first match on the surface.

I don't think that happens here against Mischa Zverev, but the German is very effective on the grass courts with a strong serve and the ability to put balls away at the net. Not many would have forgotten the double bagel Federer handed out against Zverev in Halle a few years ago, but last year they played each other twice on the grass courts and both were very competitive matches.

If Federer is needing a little time to find his best form after the long lay off from the courts then someone like Zverev can make it very tough for him. The lack of rhythm you get against a player who will serve-volley can be difficult for a player with little court time to get very comfortable and Federer could be pushed here.

Ultimately I think Zverev's return game won't be good enough to earn the win, but he can give Federer something to think about. It should be a fun match for the fans to watch and I will back the veteran to serve well enough to get within the number in this Second Round match.

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