Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 19th June)

The majority of the selections made this week have followed the numbers- Joao Fonseca was a touch unfortunate, but Emma Navarro struggled for much of the defeat to Paula Badosa and that was reflected in the final score.

Jack Draper's failure to cover is the exception.

He had four Break Point chances in the first set, but failed to convert and was punished by dropping serve to lose that set 6-3... Even after winning the second set 6-2, Draper could not find a way to cover the handicap mark and it was a match where, once again, the dominant Break Point opportunities did not result in a successful outcome.

At least Alexander Zverev came through his First Round match, even if it was a disappointing day overall.

On Thursday the Quarter Final lineup will be completed at the four tournaments being played this week and so there are plenty of matches to get through with the remainder of the Second Round all to be played.

However, it looks like the research can only identify three selections- one from Nottingham, Halle and Queen's- that can be read below.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: Back to back Wimbledon titles have been secured and there are no real concerns about the ability of Carlos Alcaraz when it comes to performing on this surface.

He is also a former Champion at Queen's Club in West London and so there were real reasons to consider withdrawing from the tournament and just using a couple of exhibition events to warm up for Wimbledon.

The main reason was recovering from the emotional and physical success in Paris earlier this month- Carlos Alcaraz defended the French Open title by coming from 2-0 down in sets to defeat Jannik Sinner and there was no doubt how much energy that was needed to do that in the manner it happened.

Eventually the decision was made to play at Queen's again, and Carlos Alcaraz made a comfortable start to the tournament with a routine straight sets win over Adam Walton. The scoreboard suggested a close match, but the World Number 2 was in complete control of the contest and he can build on that.

Carlos Alcaraz faces a compatriot in the Second Round and Jaume Munar is one of those Spanish players that has struggled to have an impact on the grass.

Jaume Munar came through the First Round when Jordan Thompson had to withdraw from the match after a single set was completed, but prior to the event, the World Number 59 had a career record of 3-13 when playing on this surface. Suffice to say it is a time of the season when Jaume Munar is not at his best and it will be tough for him to challenge someone of the confidence and quality of Carlos Alcaraz.

It would be a big challenge even on Munar's favoured clay courts, but on this surface it should be a bigger edge with Carlos Alcaraz, who should feel relatively comfortable in the match up.

He should be able to get into the rallies on the return and that should see Carlos Alcaraz exert his qualities over Jaume Munar- as long as Alcaraz serves as well as he can, he should have enough about him to earn the breaks of serve needed to cover what is a pretty big line for a best of three set match on the grass.

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: Last year was a disappointment for Andrey Rublev as far as the grass courts were concerned, but he was a very confident winner in the First Round. This is a player who has performed pretty well on the grass courts in the past and that crushing win over Sebastian Ofner will only have given Rublev some belief in what has been an inconsistent season.

He is next up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in Halle and the World Number 63 is not someone who has a lot of grass court experience or success to call upon. His First Round win over Pedro Martinez, another Spaniard who prefers not to play on this surface, saw Tomas Martin Etcheverry improve his career record to 4-9 on the grass, but Andrey Rublev had double that number of wins in just the 2023 season alone.

An early loss in Hertogenbosch backs up the issues that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has had on the grass, but there has to be some respect for a player who gets plenty out of his serve.

On a surface like this one, serving well can keep a player in any match being played and Martin Etcheverry will certainly look to see how Andrey Rublev handles his own frustrations if the lower Ranked player is able to keep the service games ticking over.

A loss of focus when things are not going his way have held Andrey Rublev back, but he has shown enough patience on a surface like this one to produce some solid returning numbers. The way he dealt with the Sebastian Ofner serve bodes well for Rublev, especially if he can continue to serve at the level he was showing in the First Round.

When these two met on the hard courts in Canada last summer in the build up to the US Open, Andrey Rublev did display that patience to come through a tough first set before moving clear in the second. He may need something similar in this match in Halle, but Andrey Rublev can eventually make his superior grass court qualities display that on the final scoreboard.

Sonay Kartal + 3.5 games v Katie Boulter: All credit has to be given to Sonay Kartal for the year she has put together, which means coming into this tournament as the World Number 50, her career best World Ranking mark. It also means direct entry into the main draw at Wimbledon, where she reached the Third Round last year and the 23 year old will feel there is more to come.

She will certainly want to get up to the kind of level that Katie Boulter has reached as the two British players prepare to face off in the Second Round in Nottingham.

Losing to Amanda Anisimova at Queen's last week will have been a blow for Sonay Kartal, although the form of the American cannot be dismissed. In the same tournament Katie Boulter was not able to build on taking the opening set against Diana Shnaider, but the World Number 39 looked pretty comfortable in her opening win here in Nottingham.

Both are pretty comfortable on the grass courts, which is no surprise, but it has been mentioned before that Katie Boulter has struggled for big wins on the surface.

That is not the case for Sonay Kartal, who beat the World Number 16 last week and who upset a couple of top 50 Ranked players in her run at Wimbledon last year.

Their sole previous match up on the Tour ended in a three set win for Katie Boulter on the grass courts of Surbiton a couple of years ago, but Sonay Kartal was much lower in the World Rankings on that occasion. There is not so much between them now and Sonay Kartal has the grass court qualities to at least keep this one competitive with the games being given to her.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Sonay Kartal + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 5-3, + 1.04 Units (8 Units Staked, + 13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 18th June)

A couple of rolls of the ball or a mishit here or there may have led to a perfect 5-0 start to the week for the Tennis Picks, but it was not to be for Joao Fonseca, who had late Break Point opportunities to win and cover.

Instead he was beaten in a third set tie-breaker, but Andrey Rublev had already done all that was expected from him earlier in the day in Halle and that has prevented this week having the same slide as last week following a strong start for the selections.

Moving onto Wednesday means more big names are in action and the majority of the tournaments being played will be into Second Round action over the next couple of days. There some First Round matches to clear up in Halle as the organisers gave a couple of Finalists from the end of last week a bit more time to prepare for their event, but in the main it is onto Second Round action in what are the last really big events before the start of Wimbledon a week on Monday.

Emma Navarro v Paula Badosa: Both of these players produced very solid First Round wins in Berlin and previous form on the grass courts should mean Emma Navarro and Paula Badosa are set for decent impacts when Wimbledon gets underway.

The more matches that can be played now could pay off in SW19 and so this is an important Second Round match.

Last week Emma Navarro was beaten at the same stage at Queens Club in London, while Paula Badosa is playing her first grass court event of 2025, and the performances that have been produced in the opening wins should have given each plenty of confidence.

At the same time, both Navarro and Badosa have struggled for some consistency in the last few months and so they will be looking to rebuild some of the lost confidence by having a strong run in Berlin.

Emma Navarro was a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist last year, and that had followed a Semi Final run in Bad Homburg. She has yet to really find the same level on the surface in the opening three matches played, but all three have been against decent players on the Tour and going 2-1 will certainly help the American believe that her tennis is in a good spot.

In the same two events in 2024, Paula Badosa reached the Fourth Round in SW19 and Quarter Final in Bad Homburg, and she looked in strong shape in crushing home hope Eva Lys in the First Round. This is a significant step upwards in terms of a challenge having split two matches with Emma Navarro last year with the Badosa win being on a clay court and the Navarro win coming at the US Open on the hard courts.

Paula Badosa has all of the attributes to be a really strong grass court player- the serve can be a huge weapon and she showed that she can get her teeth into the return last year and in the strong First Round win.

However, that will be tested by Emma Navarro if the World Number 9 is anywhere near her best and the match up with the Spaniard has been one that she has enjoyed.

This has the makings of a close Second Round match between two players separated by one place in the World Rankings and Emma Navarro can secure the upset. It was something of a surprise that she has been set as the pretty strong underdog, and the American can make use of the games being given to her on the handicap.

Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: Over the last twelve months, Alexei Popyrin has perhaps picked up a better understanding of playing on the grass courts, although it is still a work in progress. He is going to be Seeded at Wimbledon later this month and Alexei Popyrin has won six of his last ten matches on the surface having gotten the better of compatriot Aleksandar Vukic in the First Round.

That followed an early loss in Hertogenbosch and there is little doubt that Alexei Popyrin is a very dangerous player on this surface as long as he serves as well as he can. Doing that makes it very difficult to get on top of him and Popyrin won a set in a Third Round loss to Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon last year, which will have given him a lot of confidence to perform on this surface.

Playing in London means it is tennis season and Alexei Popyrin has had previous experience of facing a British player at Queens Club when losing to Andy Murray in what turned out to be the last Singles win of the latter's very strong career.

This time he has to face the British Number 1, who is also the World Number 6, and Jack Draper has all of the tools needed to be a very successful player on the surface.

He won a title on the grass in Stuttgart last year, but Draper was disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon and so there has been a tweak of the schedule. This time Jack Draper decided to have some time off before Queens got underway and he was a very strong First Round winner.

Jack Draper's improvement on the Tour has been behind the strong lefty serve, and that is a weapon that is considerably more dangerous on a surface like this one. He should be able to largely contain the Alexei Popyrin threat when he is serving and that should allow Draper the freedom to try and attack the Australian, who has given up seventeen Break Points in two matches played on the grass this month.

When he is serving at his best, Alexei Popyrin can be very difficult to break- he held 89% of his service games on the grass courts in 2024. This is not an easy surface to break serve, but Jack Draper has had some decent numbers on the grass and he can use his own serve to put some scoreboard pressure on the lower Ranked player.

The home player can take some encouragement from the fact he was able to break the Alexei Popyrin twice on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season too and Draper may have enough to cover the spread in this one barring a significant serving improvement from the World Number 21.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: It was something of a surprise to not see Marcos Giron's name on the draw sheet at either of the two grass court events played last week.

In recent years, the 31 year old has been a comfortable grass court player and he has had some big wins and solid runs on the surface.

He arrives in Halle to face the home favourite, Alexander Zverev, who is also fresh off of reaching the Stuttgart Final before being downed by Taylor Fritz again. This is also a player who has regularly reached the business end at this tournament in the build up to Wimbledon, although Zverev will have plenty of respect for the kind of tennis that Marcos Giron can produce on the grass.

The serve was key for Marcus Giron last year and it helped him win the ATP title in Newport, as well as reaching the Quarter Final here in Halle. During that summer on the grass, Giron was able to take a set from Jack Draper and beat Andrey Rublev, which are impressive performances and his runs were ended by top ten Ranked players here and at Wimbledon.

The second of those defeats was to Alexander Zverev, who dismissed Marcus Giron at SW19 far more easily than anyone could have really imagined.

It is the kind of win that will give Zverev confidence as he heads out onto the court on Wednesday following the loss in Stuttgart on Sunday and the only real concern is whether he is that motivated for another long week with Wimbledon fast approaching. Having those wins in Stuttgart could be a distraction for Alexander Zverev, even if he is going to be well backed by the fans in the stands, although the match up is hard to ignore.

He has won all three previous matches against Marcus Giron and the two wins in 2024 both came in straight sets.

Overall it has been a real challenge for the World Number 41 to get into the Alexander Zverev service games and that has put too much pressure on his own serve.

It should be noted that Alexander Zverev is not the most convincing of return players on the faster surfaces, but he should have enough chances in this First Round match to win and go through with a cover of this handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.32 Units (5 Units Staked, + 46.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 17th June)

If last week is anything to go by, a good start doesn't mean much more than a positive start.

That is the case in this new week of tennis tournaments with the Monday selections returning a positive number, but building on that is important and there is a long way to go between today and the Final of the big events in Berlin, Halle and Queens.

We also have a WTA tournament being played in Nottingham, but the majority of the top names in action on that Tour have ended up in Berlin, which is highlighted by the fact that Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng is a First Round match.

That will be played on Tuesday, but the remaining First Round matches in Berlin look to have been priced up pretty well and instead the focus for the selections will be on the ATP 500 events being played.

All three selections were routine winners on Monday and the hope is that another stress-free, comfortable day for the Tennis Picks is had as we move to within two weeks of the start of Wimbledon.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Sebastian Ofner: It has been a difficult season for Andrey Rublev, but he will be hoping that the move back onto the grass courts can spark some kind of return to form.

The French Open was not a terrible tournament for Andrey Rublev, but he will be well aware that the grass is a much tougher surface for the majority of players on the Tour to deal with.

He has had previous successes on the surface, including reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and the Final in Halle as recently as two years ago, and Andrey Rublev has a big game which does suit the grass.

There is no doubt that Andrey Rublev is going to have to produce some of his strongest tennis as he goes up against Sebastian Ofner, a player who has won two matches in the Qualifying Round to get his grass court season underway. Last year, the Austrian reached the Final in Mallorca in the build up to Wimbledon and Sebastian Ofner will feel his serve gives him a chance to stay in this match.

Andrey Rublev has had plenty of serving success on the grass courts, but the key factor in this First Round match in Halle is that the World Number 14 has found a way to get into return games with a little more consistency compared with Sebastian Ofner.

The latter has had plenty of grass court wins under his belt in recent years, which again has to be respected, but his numbers suffer a significant dip when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked players.

Sebastian Ofner's serve can keep him in the match, but the feeling is that Andrey Rublev will find a way to earn a couple of breaks, and that may be enough for a win and a cover.

Joao Fonseca - 2.5 games v Flavio Cobolli: Very little grass court experience has been had by Joao Fonseca who played six matches on the surface in 2024 and was beaten in four of those.

It is no surprise that the surface is unfamiliar to an 18 year old who has really begun to make a big impact on the Tour, but who has spent his youth in South America where the clay courts are the go-to surface.

Despite the win-loss record, Joao Fonseca played pretty well on the grass in 2024 and the development over the last twelve months could make him much more effective this time around.

Nothing was wrong with the return game in those handful of matches, but Joao Fonseca was not able to get enough out of his serve and that is something that may change when he gets underway in Halle. There is no doubt that the serve is improving for him all of the time and Joao Fonseca can at least put Flavio Cobolli under pressure in this First Round match.

Much like Fonseca, Flavio Cobolli is much more comfortable playing on the clay courts, but the Italian has moved into the top 30 of the World Rankings and is set to be Seeded at Wimbledon.

He may be one of the more vulnerable Seeds in the early Rounds in SW19, but Flavio Cobolli did reach the Eastbourne Quarter Final last year. His 3-4 record on the grass in 2024 is nothing to write home about, but Flavio Cobolli made use of his serve and that is going to be an important factor in this match.

The return needed some work with the ball skidding through the court much more than Flavio Cobolli would be used to, but he served well in his seven matches in 2024.

It will be given another examination by Joao Fonseca and the lower Ranked player may just have enough to get through this match and progress into the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Joao Fonseca - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-0, + 2.41 Units (3 Units Staked, + 80.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 16th June)

After a positive start to last week, it took a historic failure from Ekaterina Alexandrova to help end the week with a negative number.

It was a hugely frustrating Friday and Saturday considering the chances that the players selected had created.

Sometimes you have to accept you've made a poor selection, but when those players picked have more than double the number of Break Points compared with their opponents, but can't convert, it really is a case of bad luck and that can be very frustrating and disappointing.

Over the last month, it has felt like some of the luck needed for any Pick has been missing, although I have to be happier that the read on the matches has been about right.

Again, if a player is creating two or three times as many Break Points as the opponent, it means they are playing well enough to win matches in the manner expected, rather than missing the majority of those and handing over breaks of serve to scupper the selections. You have to believe that will change back around as long as players are not finding ways to blow matches when having ELEVEN Match Points come and go.

It is a really big week on the grass with some of the very best names on the Tour playing in events to get themselves ready for Wimbledon.

The WTA draw in Berlin looks incredibly loaded with the top talents, while the two Men's Finalists at Roland Garros are also back in action ahead of the start of the third Grand Slam of the season.

There should be plenty of good tennis to watch for the fans, but I hope that is backed up by a decent week for the Tennis Picks, which have suffered over the last three weeks.

Emma Navarro v Marta Kostyuk: She may be the World Number 10, but it has not been a strong calendar year for Emma Navarro and she is looking for some consistency to take into Wimbledon.

There are plenty of World Ranking points to protect in SW19 after a surprising run to the Quarter Final in 2024 and Emma Navarro as shown a liking to playing on the grass.

However, her inconsistent season was all on display at Queens last week where Emma Navarro was able to get past Beatriz Haddad Maia in a tough match before losing to Amanda Anisimova, the eventual Runner Up. The first serve was not working as well as Navarro would have been hoping last week and that has put pressure on ther return.

She is at least going up against an opponent in the First Round in Berlin who has not played a grass court match this season and Marta Kostyuk has not always been at her most comfortable on the surface.

Her numbers over the last couple of years on the grass have been a little disappointing and the early exit at the French Open will have knocked the confidence of the World Number 26. Over the last twelve months, Marta Kostyuk has dropped ten places in the World Rankings and the match up with Emma Navarro has been a tough one for her.

Both previous matches have been played on the hard courts and Emma Navarro is leading the head to head 2-0 as she has been able to get her teeth into the return games with a little more consistency. On the grass, you would have to give Navarro a bit more of an edge and she can win this match in the opening Round in Berlin.

Katerina Siniakova - 4.5 games v Viktoriya Tomova: Qualifying for the main draw should stand Katerina Siniakova in good stead in this First Round match and the World Number 73 should be able to display all of her grass court capabilities in this contest.

Being a strong Doubles player certainly helps on this surface where getting up to the net and putting the finishing touch to rallies can be important.

Katerina Siniakova was beaten early in Hertogenbosch, which will have been a disappointment, but the two wins here in Berlin should have given her a lot of confidence. She has not only served effectively in those wins, but Siniakova has had her eye in when it comes to the return and she has been creating a lot of Break Point chances in those wins.

Viktoriya Tomova will know all about the qualities of her opponent having been beaten twice by her on the Tour, including earlier this season on a hard court.

Despite being Ranked lower than Siniakova, Viktoriya Tomova was not forced to go through Qualifying and that means her sole match on the grass was a defeat in Hertogenbosch to eventual Champion Elise Mertens. That defeat does not look so bad after Mertens went on to lift the title, but Tomova has been a little inconsistent on the grass courts over the last few seasons.

The handicap mark is a significant one and that will need to be respected, but the feeling is that Katerina Siniakova can use the momentum of Qualifying to get the better of this opponent.

She has been the significantly better server in the head to head matches too and Katerina Siniakova can come away with a solid First Round win.

Alexander Bublik - 2.5 games v Alexandre Muller: The surprising run at Roland Garros may have ended in a relatively one-sided defeat, but Alexander Bublik will have taken so much from that performance.

In recent years his numbers on the grass courts have been impressive, even if the win-loss record could, and perhaps should, have been improved and that confidence from the second Grand Slam could set Alexander Bublik up for a very good third Grand Slam of the season.

There may be an outside chance of earning a Seed for Wimbledon with a big run in Halle, but the reality is that Alexander Bublik is still going to be dangerous with his capabilities of playing on a surface that so many find alien.

He returns for the first time since the French Open and Alexander Bublik can get the better of Alexandre Muller in the First Round.

The latter enters the tournament as the World Number 40, which is above Alexander Bublik, but Alexandre Muller has not really not enjoyed the grass court season.

The Frenchman has a career 3-5 record on the surface, but Muller can serve pretty well at times and that should show up on the grass courts. In those eight previous matches, Alexandre Muller has only won 58% of his service points played, but two of those matches have been against top 5 Ranked players and he has had stronger returning numbers when facing opponents that are not Ranked that high.

Alexander Bublik can be tough to trust- he is certainly someone who has to have got out of bed the right side on the morning of his match- but he does have solid serving numbers on the grass. If he can stick to that kind of level, Bublik can keep this opponent under some pressure and that may see him find a break or two that is needed to win and cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Emma Navarro @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)

Katerina Siniakova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Bublik - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 93-79, + 6.75 Units (210 Units Staked, + 3.21% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (June 17th)

The first week on the grass courts was not a great one for the Tennis Picks, but at one stage it was looking a lot worse than it ended up being.

As I have mentioned at the time, the small sample of grass court statistics to back up the selections does make things a little more difficult to read, but that is something I am trying to factor into the Picks from this time of the season. There isn't a lot of time to get into rhythm on a grass court where matches can be won and lost very quickly, which is always a concern when you make any Picks, and it doesn't take a lot of breaks of serves to secure sets.

That is factored into some of the spreads that we will see over the next couple of weeks and it is something to consider.


This week we have the biggest events that are played before Wimbledon on the surface, but it looks like another potentially wet week all around. The usually warm June weather we expect to see in Europe has not materialised as most would have been hoping for and I do think there will be some delays in the days ahead.

In Halle those look like they will be coming later in the week, but in London and Birmingham we could see the early part of the tournament being affected by the weather. It will mean some players will be asked to play twice in a single day to maintain their push through the draw, which can be highly frustrating, but the hope is that better weather is to come by the time Wimbledon rolls around.


Monday does tend to be one of the slow burners at the start of the week in a new tournament, but there are quite a few First Round matches that have been scheduled with Qualifiers completed on Sunday. Below you can see my selections for the day as well as the updated season totals after a poor week for the Tennis Picks.


Steve Johnson v Philipp Kohlschreiber: The tournament being played in Halle comes in a week where a number of the bigger names on the Tour will be looking to get some competitive grass court tennis underneath their legs. Roger Federer is the top Seed in Halle, but it is a competitive draw and the chance for some really important Ranking points to be earned if putting a strong run together.

Both Steve Johnson and Philipp Kohlschreiber have to believe they are capable of performing effectively enough on the grass to have a chance of doing that. The winner is likely going to face Alexander Zverev in the Second Round, but that match looks as winnable as it can with the German being out of consistent form, and both Johnson and Kohlschreiber will have a lot of belief if they can get out of this match.

Neither had the week they would have liked in Stuttgart last week with an opening loss so there is some pressure for them to have a stronger week in Halle where there are more Ranking points available. I have to say I am a touch surprised with the prices and I do think the wrong player is being favoured in this First Round match, although it could be the factor of Kohlschreiber playing at home which is perhaps seeing him edge favouritism.

In their previous meeting on the grass it was Kohlscreiber who won too, but that was back in June 2017 and there has been some improvement in the Johnson game since then. Both players will be very keen to get plenty of first serves in play which will set them up to run through those games effectively, but it is Johnson who looks to be showing the superior returning that can make the difference in this one.

Returning serve on the grass has been ineffective from Kohlschreiber who won just 29% of points against the Miomir Kecmanovic serve last week. In 2017 the German broke in only 12% of return games and in 2018 that number slipped to 11%, while there has been a clear decline in Kohlschreiber's performances on that side of his game.

Over the last twelve months Johnson has broken in 21% of return games played on the grass and he was successful getting into the Gael Monfils service games last week. It won't be easy against the Kohlschreiber serve, but Johnson should have the slight edge when it comes to the return of serve and I think that makes the underdog an appealing player to back in this First Round match.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: Last week was a little disappointing for Gael Monfils in his Second Round defeat in Stuttgart, but the Frenchman is someone who is capable of playing on the grass courts. He will be expecting a lot better from himself when the Tour moves to Halle, although Monfils could have perhaps been hoping for a better First Round draw than facing compatriot Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

You would think Herbert's style would be well suited to the grass with his ambitions of getting to the net and being able to employ serve-volley tactics, but it hasn't really happened for him on the Singles court just yet. He was also beaten in the Second Round last week in his first grass court action of the 2019 season and Herbert needs to find a way to get a little more out of the serve.

In 2017 Herbert was holding just shy of 80% of the service games he played on the grass, but that number slipped a little bit in 2018 and he was broken too many times last week in Hertogenbosch. Breaks of serve on the grass courts should be a rarity if you are on top of your game, but Herbert was broken at least twice in each match played and that puts pressure on what is a limited returning game.

The two matches last week is a very limited sample as Herbert actually had some success on the return, but in the last couple of years it has not been a strength for him on the grass. I do think he could have some joy if Gael Monfils is not able to improve his own standards from what he showed in Stuttgart, but the higher Ranked Frenchman has also shown he can get his teeth in return games and I do think he can make enough balls back in play to put Herbert under pressure.

Last week might have just been a poor week for Monfils whose serve has been much more effective on the grass in 2017 and 2018. I think he should have more chances of getting through those games against an opponent like Herbert and Monfils' return should prove to be a decisive factor in being able to help him through to the Second Round with a good looking win on the board.


Robin Haase-Alexander Zverev over 21.5 games: The final match on the opening Monday in Halle sees the German Number 1 take to the court as Alexander Zverev tries to get his season turned back around. It has been a difficult couple of months for Zverev who has struggled with the kind of consistency we would have come to expect from him.

A defeat to Dustin Brown in Stuttgart last week is not a good look for Zverev as he is just having a difficult moment when the critical point in matches has been reached. He couldn't take the break points that he was creating in that match, but the serve has been a shot that has yet to really push on and give Zverev the chance to keep opponents off of him too.

Alexander Zverev has got plenty out of his serve on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but I would be concerned with the amount of break points Brown was able to earn last week. In this First Round match in Halle Zverev is taking on a limited returner in Robin Haase too which is why he is such a big favourite to progress to the Second Round, but Haase can't be coming into the match without any belief.

The Dutchman is a former title winner on the grass courts and he is someone who has given Zverev plenty to think about in previous matches between these two. In the last eighteen months Haase has won two of the three matches between himself and Zverev, and he has had enough joy in the return of serve to think he has a chance in this match.

Those previous matches have largely been competitive affairs too and I do think Zverev's current form is going to mean he is needing to dig deep to win the match. I would be a touch concerned with the relatively poor service numbers that Robin Haase has produced on the grass courts in recent years, but he is someone who can play very well on the surface when finding his best form and I can see both players being in a position to win the sets.

With every chance of seeing three sets I am going to look for the total games line to be surpassed. Even a competitive straight sets win for either player should see this number of games covered on a grass court and that is going to be my selection from this match.

MY PICKS: Steve Johnson @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Robin Haase-Alexander Zverev Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Joao Sousa @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco + 3.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 70.87 Units (1002 Units Staked, + 7.07% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 21st)

The Tennis tournaments this week are a little easier to prepare in the middle of the week as far as Tennis Picks are concerned with the Second Round split over two days.

That usually means the markets are out considerably earlier than they would be normally and I have got my Picks prepared before the results from the Wednesday Picks are completed.


Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: I guess you would have to make Daria Kasatakina favourite for this match because of her overall performances this season, but I have to say the prices don't factor in the poorer record she has on the grass.

Her win in the First Round will have given Kasatkina some confidence, but this is clearly still a learning curve for her and I do think someone like Lesia Tsurenko is comfortable enough on the surface to give the young Russian something to think about.

My concern with backing a small underdog on the WTA Tour is that you can see sets run away from them and then even a deciding set loss is not enough to get within the number. Someone who returns as well as Kasatkina makes me a little more wary when it comes to this pick, but I think Tsurenko should be able to have some joy on the return herself to keep this one close.

I also believe Tsurenko has every chance to win this match outright which makes backing her on the handicap a little more comfortable for me. Tsurenko is a decent grass court player without being a world beater on the surface and I do think she will be able to have her moments in this one which makes the underdog more appealing.

Having the safety of the games behind me when I believe she is capable of winning the match outright helps me get behind Tsurenko in this one as Kasatkina continues to prove to herself that she can play on this surface.


Julien Benneteau v Adrian Mannarino: This is expected to the final season on the Tour as a Singles player for Julien Benneteau but he is making the best of the situation with a strong run here at Queens Club. The Frenchman came through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw and Benneteau had a strong win over Tomas Berdych which will give him confidence as he gets set to face compatriot Adrian Mannarino in the Second Round.

Benneteau has always enjoyed playing on the grass and he has been in good form so far this week although I do wonder if he is playing above the level expected.

In 2017 Benneteau really struggled when it came to holding his serve, but he has been strong on that front in the three matches played to get into the main draw at Queens. However where Benneteau continues to pose a threat is off the return of serve and he will feel he can get the better of Adrian Mannarino despite the grass court pedigree the latter has displayed.

In recent seasons Mannarino has had some strong hold/break percentages on the grass courts although he has had a mixed start to 2018. A loss to Jeremy Chardy and a win over Daniel Evans is not bad form although I do worry about the head to head with the feeling it matters a lot when it comes to matches between French players.

Both players could find themselves under pressure when it comes to the service games and I would not be surprised if we see a number of breaks of serve even in the faster conditions in this part of West London. However I think it is Julien Benneteau playing the slightly better tennis at the moment and the head to head with Mannarino may be enough to make the difference at key moments of the match.

There will be some twists and turns along the way, but I like Julien Benneteau in what is almost a pick 'em contest.


Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: There are signs that Novak Djokovic is getting somewhere near to his best, but I think there is still some way to go for the former World Number 1 to really have the belief in his own game. You got a sense of that when going out of the French Open in disappointing circumstances and immediately questioning whether he will play at Wimbledon in July.

Taking a Wild Card into Queens is a good sign for Djokovic, but in reality he is still very much searching to get comfortable on the court. His numbers have been decent enough throughout 2018, but the aura around him has gone and that means players are less likely to capitulate at his feet if they fall behind in a set.

Novak Djokovic was a dominant winner in the First Round here over John Millman, but the level of competition goes up drastically when going up against Grigor Dimitrov in the Second Round. Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist and very comfortable on the grass courts, although I am not sure the Bulgarian is feeling his best tennis right now.

Playing someone like Djokovic on this surface should get the adrenaline pumping for Dimitrov but he was struggling for his best in the First Round and really needs to step up his play. An area of concern for Dimitrov fans is the decline in the service numbers on the grass courts in four consecutive years and now coming up a returner as strong as Novak Djokovic can be is going to put the higher Ranked player under some pressure.

Dimitrov should enjoy some success on the return of serve though, even if he is not the best returner on the Tour. That is mainly down to Djokovic still not having full faith in that shot after the wrist issues of twelve months ago, but generally the Serb has been a strong server on the grass courts and even his 80% hold percentage in 2018 is not to be sniffed at.

I think Djokovic has the edge in this match and the head to head only adds to that. While I expect the former World Number 1 to go through some challenging moments in the match, I think Djokovic will have the majority of the break point chances and I will look for Djokovic to win and cover in this big Second Round match.


Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber over 22.5 games: Two players who are very comfortable on the grass courts will meet in the Second Round in Halle and it has all the makings of a match that may need to go the distance to settle it. Philipp Kohlschreiber has not been putting the wins together he would have liked and he won't have nearly the same kind of confidence as Matthew Ebden.

Ebden has reached back to back Semi Finals on the grass courts and that has earned him a Special Entry into the main draw in Halle. He has deserved that, but it also has to be noted that very rarely has Ebden played someone with the quality that Kohlschreiber brings to the court, while he will also have to deal with the spectators who will want the home player to win.

Where Ebden can be confident is the way he has been serving and the 91% hold rate from eleven matches played on the grass over the last couple of weeks has to be respected. The opposition may not have been the best in that run, but Ebden will believe in his serve and he is facing an opponent here who is not exactly the greatest returner on this surface.

You can see that from Kohlschreiber's numbers on the return of serve, but he himself is possessed with a solid serve on the grass courts and I think it will be a challenge for Ebden facing it. Last week Ebden did break the Gilles Muller serve at will on the grass which is a huge achievement, but Kohlschreiber may have a little more all around game which can help him maintain his own strong numbers on the serve.

This has the feeling of a match where one or two breaks of serve will decide it but I won't be surprised to see at least one tie-breaker in this one. With the chances of this one going into a deciding set too I do think the total games can be surpassed although a straight sets win could be a concern if one of these players is not serving as well as expected.

I did also think Matthew Ebden is a big price to win the match considering how well he has been playing and especially returning on the grass courts, but it should be a close match and I will look at the total games line.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Benoit Paire: Whenever you see a spread of this size you have to be a little careful and that is especially so on the grass courts where breaks of serve are not obtained easily.

For all the obvious greatness of Roger Federer, who won yet another grass court title last week in Stuttgart, sometimes you can question the return of serve and whether it will be effective enough to cover this kind of number. In his five wins on grass Federer has broken at just 18% so far this season and his 2017 number of 43.5% is clearly an out-marker compared to his general numbers which have been much more similar to where he is this season.

It will be interesting to see how he copes against Benoit Paire who has had some solid grass court results over the last thirteen months compared to his general feel on this surface. His hold percentage has been markedly improved and that has allowed Paire to free himself up when it comes to the return of serve and the main reason the wins have been put together on this surface.

In usual circumstances I would not hesitate to move on from this match, but Paire has had some issues with Federer in their previous meetings and rarely been competitive. That has to be in his head against an opponent who is the best grass court player in the world at this time and I do think it will give Federer a chance to produce the break points needed to cover this number.

The head to head is 5-0 in favour of Federer and in eleven sets played the Swiss player has only given up four or more games three times. He hasn't dominated Paire completely on the numbers, but Federer fashions his break points and tends to take them against this opponent which may have as much to do with the Frenchman's emotional state at those pressurised moments which can be questioned.

That may be the case when they play in Halle and I think Federer has been serving well enough to have three more breaks of serve than Paire which should be good enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Lesia Tsurenko + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Julien Benneteau @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden-Philipp Kohlschreiber Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-7, + 7.58 Units (38 Units Staked, + 19.95% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 20th)

It was a mixed set of results on Tuesday for the Tennis Picks but it wasn't a completely unimportant day as we are always building data which can help going forward.

What I have realised is I am very unlikely to back Nick Kyrgios or Tomas Berdych again this season.

One player is too emotional for me and you simply don't know how he is going to feel from day to day, while the other is on a decline which is getting more and more rapid. I like Kyrgios but I have long found him a tough player to trust, especially as a favourite, while Berdych's return game has slipped considerably.

I was disappointed with the returns on Tuesday, but at least this week is still in a profitable position and I am looking to add to that on Wednesday. The selections look quite difficult to find on Wednesday as we move into the Second Round at the events being played this week, but I do have a number which can be read below.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Robin Haase: The First Round win over Joao Sousa was a lot harder work for Robin Haase than it perhaps should have been but it was another strong result on the grass courts for the Dutchman. The serve is an effective weapon for Haase and that is his best chance of putting Roberto Bautista Agut under pressure.

Over the last few years Haase has really been tough to break on the grass courts and he has continued that form so far in 2018. He has held serve at 85% or better in four of the last five seasons on the grass courts with 2016 being an exception as that number dropped down to 76%, but the consistency suggests he gets enough pop out of the serve which makes it tough for opponents to get into those games.

The main reason Haase has not produced as many wins as he would have liked is a limited return game and that was almost his downfall against Sousa in the First Round. It was the reason he was beaten in three tight sets by Roberto Bautista Agut earlier this season on the hard courts, although I am backing the Spaniard to win a little more comfortably in this Second Round match.

Bautista Agut may not have the same percentage of holds as Haase on this surface because he simply does not have as big a serve, but he has been very good on that side of his game. The edge goes to Bautista Agut when it comes to returning effectively enough and that helped him crush Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round after coming through some difficult moments in the first set.

The return has helped his combined hold/break percentage reach at least 100% in the last four seasons and I think Bautista Agut will get the better of Haase in this one. I like the way the latter has played on the grass courts but I think Bautista Agut will put him under more pressure on Haase's own serve and that can see him break him down over the course of this match and cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 1.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The last couple of years have seen Kei Nishikori's grass court season end with an injury problem both times, but he may be coming into the 2018 campaign as healthy as he has been. Last year's injury came in Halle and it was soon afterwards that Nishikori was out for the rest of the year to recover and there have been signs he is getting back to his best.

Nishikori is perhaps an underrated grass court player simply because he has not racked up the kind of wins he could have done without injury coming in to prevent him doing so. The numbers have remained very good from Nishikori and he was a solid winner in the First Round here which will have given him a chance to get used to the grass underneath the feet.

In 2017 Nishikori was forced to pull out of a match against Karen Khachanov and it is the same opponent standing in his way twelve months later.

There isn't a lot of data on Khachanov on the grass courts having only really begun to play on the surface in 2017, but unlike idol Marat Safin it looks like a surface on which the young Russian will be very comfortable. His win over Mischa Zverev in the First Round has to be given a lot of respect and Khachanov will believe he has the shot making and power to give Nishikori plenty to worry about in this match.

I think that is the case too, but Nishikori's combined hold/break percentage on the grass courts have been very impressive over the years. There is every chance this is going to be a good looking match with both players having their chances, but I think Nishikori's superior return game will prove to be a difference maker at key moments of this match and I do think he is the better grass court player.

At the moment he may be a little underrated on the surface and I will back Nishikori to win and cover the number in a victory.


Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey over 24.5 games: The grass courts at Queens Club in West London tend to be some of the faster ones on the ATP Tour and that gives players like Sam Querrey the chance to be very effective on the surface. His overall record on the grass is very good which is not a big surprise considering the serve the American has been blessed with and it will be a key weapon for him in this Second Round match.

Querrey may be 1-5 down in the head to head with Stan Wawrinka, which includes a heavy loss at Queens Club, but it is Querrey who comes in as favourite which says a lot about where Wawrinka is with his comeback from an injury.

Both players defeated lower Ranked British opponents in the First Round and both Wawrinka and Querrey were deserved winners having held serve throughout the match. Both players will understand the opponent they face in the Second Round is likely to get a lot more joy on the return of serve, although I still think serve will be king in this match.

Out of the two players it is Querrey who has shown a little more out of the return on the grass courts in the last couple of years, but Wawrinka is someone who will try and put pressure on Querrey with bunted returns and force the big man to win longer rallies than he is used to.

That has proved to be effective enough in beating Querrey for the majority of their matches against one another, but there are some doubts about the fitness of Wawrinka which can't be ignored. Instead I am looking for a match where both players can put a huge number of holds on the board and I would not be surprised if we needed a third set to decide the winner.

Even a tight two setter has every chance of covering the total games line in this one and I will back the two players to combine for enough games to surpass this line.


Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: With the courts traditionally playing pretty fast in this are of West London it automatically feels like a big spread for the Number 1 Seed to cover. Marin Cilic may be very comfortable on the grass courts as a former winner here in Queens and also a former Wimbledon Finalist, but he is going to be tested by Gilles Muller who pushed Cilic the distance both at Queens and at Wimbledon in 2017.

The raw numbers from those matches suggest Muller was perhaps a little fortunate to be able to have gotten so close to beating Cilic in both of those events. Any time a player can force a deciding set they will feel they have a chance to win the match, but Cilic will have been disappointed to have lost either when looking the stronger player both times but allowing one poor service game to make life much tougher than it should have been.

One thing that sticks out the most from their matches on the grass in 2017 is that Cilic won a very strong 43% and 45% of return points in those two matches. That is a pretty incredible return against someone like Gilles Muller who has a big left handed serve that has seen him win at least 71% points behind serve in four of the last five years on the grass courts.

His first match in 2018 saw Muller go down to a surprisingly easy defeat to Matthew Ebden and he did have some issues when it came to the serve that day. Playing against Marin Cilic will be a real challenge for Muller because he has the wingspan to get enough balls back in play and force Muller to hit more volleys than he is perhaps comfortable with.

Cilic is even more dangerous when looking at the stellar numbers produced by the Croatian on the grass courts since 2016. He dominated Fernando Verdasco in the First Round and playing a lefty will have given Cilic some idea of what to expect from Muller although the latter has a bigger first serve than Verdasco.

Last year Muller had an exceptional year when it comes to breaking on the grass courts but generally he is someone who has had issues when it comes to the return. If Cilic serves as he did in the First Round I think he can use the scoreboard pressure to find the two breaks of serve he will need to cover this number and I think he is capable of doing that.

Covering is priced up at odds against and I think Cilic can do that with his returning ability on the grass courts and someone who has had considerable success against the Muller serve.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Dalila Jakupovic: This is a big number for Naomi Osaka to cover when you think of the limited success she has had on the grass courts in the past. Her opponent Dalila Jakupovic has come through the Qualifiers in Birmingham after having a successful week in Nottingham which makes her a dangerous opponent.

Any player who has come through the Qualifiers in back to back weeks is clearly playing with some confidence and so Jakupovic has to be respected. She has had some good wins on the grass courts with perhaps the biggest coming in the First Round in Birmingham as Jakupovic came from behind to beat Elise Mertens.

However the one defeat came to a quality player in Johanna Konta and I think Jakupovic may be playing an opponent who is much improved on the grass courts.

Osaka reached the Semi Final in Nottingham last week and she had some very dominant wins on the grass courts in the last ten days which will have given her some confidence. The serve has always been a decent weapon for Osaka on this surface, but she is backing that up with some strong returning displays and I think that is going to be the key in helping her overcome this opponent and covering this number.

Jakupovic has some solid numbers behind serve and return, but they are slightly less effective than Osaka's numbers and I think that will show up in this match. It could have a similar feel to the way Jakupovic was beaten by Konta last week in Nottingham and I will back Osaka to cover here.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka-Sam Querrey Over 24.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 9-6, + 3.98 Units (30 Units Staked, + 13.27% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 19th)

After a positive week I didn't want a poor start to this new week and I have been fortunate enough to avoid that.

Monday proved to be a very effective day with the Picks making a strong start and on Tuesday I am looking to keep the momentum going.

This has been a busy evening, notably with England beginning their World Cup campaign, and so I will simply put down my Tuesday Picks below as the First Round is completed across the four tournaments being played.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matthew Ebden - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari + 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-2, + 5 Units (14 Units Staked, + 35.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (June 18th)

After a mixed French Open with some bad selections in the second week of the tournament it was good to get the grass court season off to a strong start last week.

With plenty of winners in the books the season totals have been turned back into a positive position for the year and I am looking to build on that when two big ATP 500 events take place in Halle and Queens Club, while the WTA Tour takes in a big event in Birmingham and Mallorca.

There are a lot of big names out on the courts this past week including the new World Number 1 Roger Federer having won the tournament in Stuttgart on Sunday. However the big story has to be the return of Andy Murray who has almost filled a full year on the Tour with an injury that has taken longer to clear up than it was first expected to.

In Tennis I am not sure your favourite players have to come from the country you are born in and for me it is almost certainly the case that the ones I admire most don't come from Great Britain. However I have a lot respect for Andy Murray who has had a fantastic career and who broke through barriers many felt he would not have been able to do.

We may never see Murray back to his very best and in all honesty I am not sure how many more years he will take to the grind of the Tour.

But it is great to have him back and I hope Murray can go out on his own terms by putting together a couple of really strong years on the Tour.


Andy Murray is expected back on the court on Tuesday, but for now the Tennis Picks will concentrate on the matches scheduled on Monday on what looks a busy day through the four tournaments being played this week. I will have analysis of a few of the matches below and then add the remaining Tennis Picks in the 'MY PICKS' section.


Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 games v Cameron Norrie: The lay off from the Tour was not as long as the one Andy Murray has been through but Stan Wawrinka has struggled to find his best tennis since his own enforced break from playing competitive tennis. He had a brief return in 2018 before a few more weeks off the Tour and the subsequent return has been difficult for a multiple time former Grand Slam Champion.

An early loss in Paris has meant Wawrinka has had a little break from the Tour but at least this time he should have been able to practice and try and rebuild his confidence. It is going to take some time and Wawrinka may not be at his happiest on the grass courts, but I am going to back him to get the better of Cameron Norrie.

I have little doubt the home fans will get behind Norrie, but I also have to accept that this is a player whose background may be British but he has not spent a lot of time in the country. While other British players would have a strong grass court pedigree in terms of experience, Norrie can't say the same and even Wawrinka in his current state of mind should be a little too good for him here.

Last week Norrie was beaten in the Challenger event run in Nottingham and that has dropped him to 2-6 on the grass courts in the last thirteen months. The learning curve on the grass courts can be a tough one and an in-form Wawrinka would have been a strong favourite to beat him.

You can't ignore the doubts about Wawrinka's fitness going into the match, but playing matches is the best thing for the former top five Ranked player. Wawrinka can be very effective behind serve on the grass courts and I think he can put Norrie under some pressure with power off the ground that Wawrinka can generate.

Norrie is still learning to get the best out of his serve on the grass and I think Wawrinka is going to prove to be a little too good for him on the day.


Jared Donaldson v Francis Tiafoe: This is a very close match to predict with neither Jared Donaldson or Francis Tiafoe in great form or comfortable on the grass courts, but I did think it was Donaldson who deserved to be the favourite to win the match.

He has certainly shown a little more than his compatriot on the grass courts and so I would have had Donaldson a number of ticks shorter in the prices than you can find in this one.

In saying that Donaldson is not exactly someone you can trust fully to produce his best when he can struggle to hold his serve, but the run at the French Open has to have given him some confidence to take into the grass court season.

And where the difference can be made is through Donaldson's return game which looks to be superior to Francis Tiafoe's on the grass courts. Tiafoe has limited experience on this surface and it may be seen as a time of the season to get through as quickly as possible before both players will feel much happier about North American hard court tournaments in the build to the US Open.

Tiafoe could be comfortable facing Donaldson, which would help, but his numbers are weaker on the grass courts compared to his overall record over the last twelve months. I am not sure he will turn that around and backing Donaldson here has to be right play at the prices being offered.


Sam Querrey - 4.5 games v Jay Clarke: Coming off the clay courts and onto the grass courts is a blessing for someone like Sam Querrey who has consistently produced strong results on this surface. It is no surprise when you consider the huge weapon of a serve he possesses and the former Queens Club Champion is rightly a big favourite against the promising Jay Clarke.

Clarke is still only 19 years old and he has been granted a Wild Card into the main draw at Queens Club this week but he is yet to show the consistency to really expect any kind of upset here. In fact I think it would be a real surprise if Clarke was to even win a set against Querrey on Monday especially when you think he has already lost both grass court matches he has played this season.

The numbers don't make for great reading in those two losses, but the bigger concern for someone like Clarke is the limited success he has had on the return of serve. That is unlikely to have changed much after facing someone like Querrey and Clarke's only real hope is the first match back on the grass courts means the American is perhaps a little undercooked for this First Round encounter.

It has to be said that Querrey did not serve as well as he would have wanted on the grass courts last season, but it is still a huge strength of his game and I am not sure Clarke will even earn a break point in this one. What is more interesting is whether Querrey can return anywhere like as effectively as he did last year on a surface where you would think his limited return game would not have a lot of success.

If he does then Querrey is going to have a big chance to breeze through this match, but I have a feeling his numbers will definitely slip back to the normal levels. However this is not an opponent who should cause too many problems for Querrey and Clarke will have to play a lot higher than his usual level to stay in this match.

Ultimately I am not sure he does that having lost to two players far below the level that Querrey can produce and I think the American breaks down the young British player and covers what does look a big number on paper.


Robin Haase - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: The last couple of times Robin Haase and Joao Sousa have met on the Tour have ended in wins for the Portuguese player, but the match on the grass courts in the First Round in Halle should favour Haase.

Neither player has a deep grass court pedigree which makes it tough to pick the winner, but Haase has had a couple of matches on the surface and generally plays better than Sousa does on this surface.

Since June 2017 Haase has produced some very strong serving numbers on the grass courts and that has to give him a chance to put some scoreboard pressure on Sousa. With an 88% hold percentage in those grass court matches Haase will feel he can make it very difficult for Sousa to break him especially with the way the latter has been returning on the grass courts in recent years.

One of the main reasons Haase has not been able to produce more wins is down to his own limited return game, but you do have to think he can have more joy against a vulnerable looking Sousa serve. You do have to give Sousa some credit for some strong numbers on the grass courts behind the serve, but there will be moments when he can put a few too many errors together and that should mean Haase has his chances to break the serve here.

The recent head to head has to be a concern but I think the surface is going to send the edge to Haase in the First Round match scheduled for Monday. Sousa has not bettered a combined 94% hold/break percentage over the last three years on the grass courts and that is a huge part of my selection which favours Haase who has played well without the results following on the grass.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: It was a difficult time for Roberto Bautista Agut who took to the courts in Paris just days after the passing of his mother in unexpected circumstances. You could see the emotion the Spaniard was playing with and he has had a couple of weeks to really come to terms with the loss of a parent.

This is a difficult moment for anyone in any walk of life but for athletes it is something that is played out on a worldwide platform as you have to perform in front of the paying public while dealing with a very private issue.

That is the case for Bautista Agut on his return to the Tour after the French Open but he seems to be a level headed player and I am backing him with the belief that he will be able to produce something like his best tennis. Bautista Agut has admitted he gets away from his real life when on the tennis court and his record on the grass courts suggests he can beat the home player Jan-Lennard Struff.

Bautista Agut did not have the best 2016 on the grass courts, but generally he has been very comfortable on the grass with some strong hold/break combined percentages in his matches. In 2018 Bautista Agut was back to the decent returning which makes him a tough out for anyone and I certainly think he is better on the grass than someone like Struff who was upset in the First Round in Stuttgart last week.

The defeat last week means Struff is just 3-13 on the grass courts since June 2014 and the main reason for that is the poor returning numbers he has produced. The German is still getting decent effort from the serve, but he has struggled with the combined hold/break percentage thanks to some subpar returning.

The Spaniard has won both previous matches between these two very comfortably and I think Bautista Agut's stronger grass court pedigree gets him through the First Round.


Denis Kudla - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: This is a rematch of a grass court match that took place in Surbiton a couple of weeks ago and I think Denis Kudla can frank that win against Lukas Lacko.

It was a dominant win the American produced against Lacko and his grass court numbers in 2018 have been very impressive as Kudla has racked up the wins.

The majority of the wins earned by Kudla have either come at the Challenger level or in the Qualifiers for the main ATP events. That is something to consider whenever Kudla plays the better opponents on the Tour, but Lacko is someone who is also very much on the same kind of level as the opponents Kudla has been beating.

Lacko has produced some strong numbers himself which makes him a dangerous opponent for Kudla, but the return game is a real weakness and that could be the difference on the day. The American has held 93% of service games on the grass courts in 2018 and that kind of success will put Lacko under some immense pressure which saw him collapse in their match in Surbiton.

I fully expect this match to be much closer than that one was, but I also like Kudla to frank his win with another one here and I think he can do enough to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jared Donaldson @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Robin Haase - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Denis Kudla - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 12.72 Units (891 Units Staked, + 1.43% Yield)