Tennis Recap (June 11-17)

Another week has gone by on the Tour and we are now just seven days from the start of the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon. That means we have the last of the grass court events starting this week before Wimbledon and most of the top players will be playing exhibition events rather than proper tournaments.

It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!


David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.


I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.


I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?


I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.


It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.


I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.


The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.


I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.


Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)




The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.


I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.


There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.


Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.


All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.




Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.


Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.


Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.




Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.


This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.


Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.


The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.


If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.




Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap (French Open)

The second Grand Slam of 2012 is over with Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the two events and it won't be long until the third Major starts at Wimbledon towards the end of the month.

While the daily picks only produced a small profit by the end of the tournament, catching both winners in the outright markets have really upped the profits at the end of the tournament. I only received a bonus by picking the Men's Champion to lose less than 3 sets at the tournament and Rafael Nadal's serene progress through the draw has also brought that pick in.

Below are a few thoughts from the event and I will also update the profit/loss from the French Open and the overall season results.


Putting Maria Sharapova's Grand Slam in perspective: All of the hype, particularly on the British channels, about Maria Sharapova's completing the career Grand Slam is absolutely ridiculous if you ask me.


It is a great achievement, there is no doubt about that, but it seriously needs to be put into perspective compared to some of her peers including the Williams sisters. First things first, the surfaces no longer have the differences that they used to and that makes it easier for players to make the adjustments when moving from the hard to the clay and then to the grass courts, well at least easier than they used to.


Secondly, this is only the fourth Major that Sharapova has now won and that is far short of the expectations people had when she won Wimbledon at 17. Compare that to players like Justine Henin (7 Grand Slams), Venus Williams (7 Grand Slams) and Serena Williams (13 Grand Slams) and you see there is plenty of room for the Russian before she can be considered alongside the greats of yesteryear.


I also wasn't impressed with some of the commentators comparing Sharapova's achievement to Serena Williams when she won the 'Serena Slam'... The BIG difference is Serena won all 4 Majors consecutively, not over the space of 8 years and that has to be stated- of course, I would revise this whole thing if Sharapova goes on and wins Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open and then we could start speaking about this achievement at the same level as Serena's.




Rafael Nadal is the 'King of Clay': Rafael Nadal completed his seventh win at the French Open and he remains the ultimate player on the surface and I think he has underlined his position as the best player to have played on the dirt in the history of the game.


However, he can consider himself a touch fortunate that the match was called off when it was on Sunday evening as he was completely on the ropes despite being up 2-1 in sets... That break gave him the chance to find his place mentally and allowed him to get back to what he wanted to do.


I still think he needed to finish the match in four sets, something he did do in the end, as I would have favoured Novak Djokovic heavily if it had gone the distance. It was a shame that he couldn't have forced a tie-break to prolong the drama, while a double-fault was the most disappointing ending to the Final.


However, there was enough in the match to suggest that Djokovic should be the favourite to win the event at Wimbledon depending on the draw of course.




Is Roger Federer suffering with some sort of injury: I have said during the French Open that Roger Federer has not looked himself and he did mention that he had a niggle before the event in Rome... My question would be how much is actually suffering?


Federer is not the kind of player that will openly say what is bothering him, but it will be interesting to see how he goes at Halle before making any judgements on how he will perform at Wimbledon.


He is still one of the top players on the grass and he is going to be a real threat if he is fit, but I want to see him remove my doubts before he is under consideration to possibly win Wimbledon.




Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be a real dark horse at Wimbledon: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga surprised many, including me, with his run to the French Open Quarter Finals and he was so close to beating Novak Djokovic that I think the Frenchman could be a real threat at Wimbledon if he has not allowed that defeat to mentally linger.


Tsonga proved last year when he beat Roger Federer in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon that he can really beat the big players on this surface and I think he could take advantage if he gets a decent draw.


His mental resolve will be tested at Queens this week and it will give me an insight into how he is feeling. I also hope Tsonga does not go to Eastbourne as he did last season and instead takes the week off to get ready for Wimbledon and make sure his batteries are recharged... If he does that, I think Tsonga is ready for a deep run.






French Open Daily Picks: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)


French Open Outright Picks: + 18.11 Units (14 Units Staked)


French Open 2012: + 21.47 Units (89 Units Staked)




Season 2012 Update: + 57.98 Units (492 Units Staked, 11.78% Yield)

US Open Day 6 Picks

What could go wrong yesterday, did go wrong as my picks fell to a disappointing 0-4.

Lucie Safarova's start to the day (winning 1 game) set the tone, but things got worse from there. Andy Murray had a chance to secure the cover but blew a 4-0 lead in his final set against what looked like a deflated Haase.

James Blake had a break advantage against David Ferrer in sets 2 and 3 but couldn't get over the line and Sam Stosur had plenty of chances in her match against Nadia Petrova but couldn't do the same.

Still, I won't complain about a lack of luck as I have had my fair share too this week and I will hopefully bounce back with a bit of style today.

Day 6 Picks:

Janko Tipsarevic vs Tomas Berdych: This will be a small play on the Serb as I think he is being vastly underestimated against a 'bigger name' in Tomas Berdych.

Tipsarevic can certainly play good tennis and normally thrives against the better players, pushing Roger Federer to 5 sets in Australia in 2008 and beating Andy Roddick when early losses for the American were still a surprise.

To further his credentials, Tipsarevic has beaten Berdych, in the Czech Republic no less, in a Davis Cup tie- and not a meaningless Rubber either, but Rubber 1 in a Semi Final.

Neither player has been pushed too hard in the tournament so far, but Tipsarevic leads the head to head 3-2, including a straight sets win in Montreal last month, and he is worth chancing.


Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Marcel Granollers: This has been set as a pick 'em because of the two 5 setters Juan Carlos Ferrero has played so far in the tournament, but the veteran Spaniard is the better hard court player of the two and I can see him coming through.

Ferrero's win over Gael Monfils, from 2-1 down in sets, shows he is in good form and the former Finalist here will fancy his chances against Granollers who he has beaten in all 3 meetings they have played, including Stuttgart in July.

Granollers has won both his matches in straight sets, but this could be a step too far against a player he would have grown up watching and I think Ferrero will come through in 4.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games vs Marin Cilic: Big hitters have given Roger Federer plenty of problems in the last 6 weeks with both Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych beating him on the hard courts, but I struggle to believe Marin Cilic has the consistency to do the same.

It is true that Federer is not the player of old and he may have even lost half a step, yet he still has too much consistency for the erratic Croatian.

There are some real positive signs coming from Cilic in the last 2 months since really struggling in 2011, but his 2nd serve remains a little problem, while the inconsistent forehand will struggle against Federer's biggest weapon.

Federer has won both previous meetings in straight sets against Cilic, and I think this could be his statement match of the tournament so far.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets vs Fernando Verdasco: This has to be the 'popcorn' match of the day as two players who can play some electric tennis meet in the late evening- the match has all the credentials to be a classic and I expect the atmosphere will be special.

Tsonga gets the clear edge considering his recent form, but he is yet to beat Verdasco having lost the 2 previous meetings while winning 1 set and losing 5.

However, the Spaniard's game is not of the level of early 2010 and I think Tsonga has bypassed him comfortably now.

Verdasco is still  capable of the sublime though, and I can see him taking a set, but not stopping Tsonga's march to a very interesting match with Mardy Fish (his most likely opponent).


Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games vs Nikolay Davydenko: Go back a couple of seasons and I would have jumped all over the Davydenko + 9.5 games, but the form of the Russian is so far removed from then, while Novak Djokovic is playing some lights out tennis.

They met recently in Montreal and I picked Djokovic to cover 5.5 games in that match, which he went on and won 7-5, 6-1.

That showed me Davydenko is capable of playing some of his old tennis, but not with anything like the consistency of old. I think we will see something similar today where he pushes Djokovic for a set, but will be well beaten by the end of the match as it is the Serb's consistency and power that overwhelm him.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games vs Victoria Azarenka: Serena Williams is playing some exceptional tennis and will surely feel she can go all the way if she can negotiate this tough 3rd Round match.

Maria Sharapova's exit yesterday has made Williams the clear favourite to win the tournament, but Azarenka is no pushover.

Williams beat Azarenka 6-3, 6-3 in Toronto and I think her power will overwhelm her opponent again tonight. She has won her last 2 tournaments she has contested, and has only lost 3 games in 2 matches at Flushing Meadows and looks to be playing close to her best.

Azarenka did well to beat Gisela Dulko in straight sets in the last Round, but did give up a few opportunities on her own serve and that could lead to her downfall in this match.


MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic @ 3.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 1.90 Stan James (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)




US OPEN UPDATE: 12-7, + 10.29 Units

Tennis Picks August 13th

After a horrendous start to the week and looking like I was going to struggle to a heavy loss, things turned around yesterday as all 5 picks came in as winners.

I really felt I deserved that change in fortune after having a few really close losses earlier in the week that added up to my struggles. Now I am back in profit for the daily picks with the Semi Finals tonight and the Finals tomorrow from the events in Montreal and Toronto.

On to the Picks:

Sam Stosur vs Agnieska Radwanska: I am going to back the Australian in this one to come through as the underdog.

Stosur has played well in her last 3 matches after struggling in Round 1, and I really think she has an excellent chance of making the Final. She is one of the few players on the WTA Tour that plays with a lot of heavy spin on her shots and that may make life difficult for a defensive player like Radwanska.

The other issue is the amount of matches Radwanska has had to play recently and fatigue must be an issue. Unlike a 2 week Grand Slam, the Pole has had very little rest after coming in from the West Coast of America on Monday following a win in San Diego.

This will eventually tell on Radwanska, and I think it is Stosur who will take advantage.


Mardy Fish - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: This may look a risky play after Mardy Fish decided to lose his mind when serving in the 2nd set against Stanislas Wawrinka yesterday, but I think he has the edge over Tipsarevic on the hard courts of North America.

Janko Tipsarevic is a very good player, but still is very inconsistent when following strong performances with very poor ones. His serve is effective on the faster surfaces, but I think Fish attacking the net will eventually pay dividends and allow the American to move through in 2 sets.

The first set could be a tight affair before Fish takes complete control, and the fact he has won their last 3 meetings on different surfaces should give the American additional confidence and reach yet another Masters Final on North American soil.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is playing some of the best stuff in his career over the last couple of months and has transferred his form from Wimbledon onto the hard courts here in Montreal.

He will receive a lot of support from the French-speaking residents of this city and I think he is playing well enough to at least pose problems for Djokovic.

What can I say about the Serb that hasn't been said already this season? He has lifted his level to such a high standard and to lose just 1 match all season in this period of Men's tennis is something very very special.

In saying that, I think Tsonga has the game to give anyone problems, and if he is hitting as clean as he has been this week, I really feel the Frenchman will give Djokovic his biggest test of the tournament this week.


MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 2.20 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mardy Fish - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 4.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (1 Unit)




WEEKLY UPDATE: + 2.65 Units

Tennis Picks August 12th

The most frustrating element of this week has been how close some of these picks have been to winning, yet I find myself in a very bad position.

Both tournaments in Toronto and Montreal have seen a huge number of surprise results, and I guess that has to be expected considering a lot of the players are playing in their first events since Wimbledon. Still, I expect better from myself and am hoping I can have a strong end to the week to salvage some pride.

Now on to the Picks:

Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: If you had blindly backed Roberta Vinci in every match this week, you would have + 8.52 Units for every 1 Unit you have staked- it has been more than a surprise to see Vinci still participating in a tournament after struggling on the hard courts for much of her career.

I backed Ana Ivanovic to beat Vinci yesterday, but I am going back to the well with Sam Stosur, a player that looked in fine fettle in her win over Na Li yesterday.

Stosur plays her game with a lot of spin and that could cause problems for the 5 foot 4 inch Vinci, especially if she gets as much off the court as the Australian did yesterday. The hard courts should favour Stosur's game much more and I will expect her to come through in straight sets, 7-5 6-3.


Agnieska Radwanska vs Andrea Petkovic: I am a little concerned with the amount of tennis Radwanska has played recently, but she showed she is in fine form after winning the tournament in San Diego last week. The Polish Number 1 beat Petkovic en route to the trophy and I expect her consistent game will be too much for the German again.

Petkovic took advantage of an error-ridden game from Petra Kvitova yesterday, but she has lost all 3 previous meetings with Radwanska and finds it hard to break down the defence the Pole employs.

This could go the distance, but I think the edge will be with Radwanska at the end of the day.


Mardy Fish - 2 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Mardy Fish has been in fine form during the US hard court swing, winning the tournament in Atlanta before reaching the Final in LA, and I think he is favourite to come through the bottom half of the draw since Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal exited early.

Wawrinka has done well to reach this Quarter Final, but I can't shake the feeling he has taken advantage of a very straight forward draw especially after Murray went out.

I expect Fish will have a little too much for Wawrinka in this match, although it is possible it goes the distance. His serve is a little more solid, while he has the knowledge to end points quickly at the net. I would guess the pressure of keeping up with Fish will eventually be the difference and Fish will get through.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games vs Nicolas Almagro: While we saw Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson falter after knocking out players in the top 4 of the World Rankings, I do not expect the same of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is finally beginning to play with the belief that he should be much higher in the rankings himself.

Many would have been watching out for Juan Martin Del Potro as a dark horse for the US Open, but I have now been converted into thinking Tsonga can do enough to make a serious splash at that event.

His win over Roger Federer showed his serve is working very effectively while his returning game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 8 months.

Nicolas Almagro is a tough competitor, but one who is much happier with the clay under his feet. He has a big serve, but his groundstrokes can be inconsistent and I think that is where Tsonga will have the edge.

Importantly, Tsonga has also won all 4 of their previous meetings, the last 3 all being on clay courts which I would have expected to suit Almagro a little more. I think Tsonga will come through tonight 6-3, 6-4 with a break in each set.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Galina Voskoboeva: Galina Voskoboeva is having a huge week- after qualifying for this event, she has gone on to beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova and has lost just 2 sets in her 5 matches this week.

This could be her toughest test of the week against Victoria Azarenka who has been playing some good stuff this week, losing just 3 games in 4 sets played. I expect the World Number 4 to have too much for Voskoboeva, and to run away with the match after a tight first set.


MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 6.41 Units

Wimbledon Day 11 Picks- Men's Semi Finals

It was a good day yesterday and today I don't feel like giving too much back to the enemy... The Men's Semi Finals are very difficult matches to predict but I will have minimum stakes on both matches and see where it leaves us.


Now on to Day 11 Picks:


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 vs Novak Djokovic: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga created one of the biggest shocks in recent Wimbledon history as he came back from 2 sets down to defeat Roger Federer in the Quarter Finals. Now the question is whether he can back up that performance against the man who has lost just once in 2011.

Novak Djokovic looked flat and out of sorts in his win over Bernard Tomic and it seems clear that the grass is not his favourite surface. The Serb has had a pretty decent tournament all things considering, but the performances against Tomic and Marcos Baghdatis has worried me.

There is also the added pressure on Djokovic of reaching the World Number 1 spot with a win here, something that is almost impossible to ignore for the player regardless of what they say.

Tsonga will need to continue playing the offensive tennis that has taken him this far. He will need to serve big and take it to Djokovic when he sees second serves.

The big man also holds a 5-2 head to head record over Djokovic, although he was fortunate to take advantage of an ill opponent when they last played at the Australian Open in 2010.

If Tsonga can serve big, he may just replicate Tomas Berdych by beating Federer and Djokovic in consecutive rounds to reach the Wimbledon Final.


Rafael Nadal win 3-1 vs Andy Murray: This match represents a huge chance for Andy Murray to make history and reach the Wimbledon Final, the first time for a British player in the Open era.

Rafael Nadal did have an injury scare in the competition, but he looked like he was moving free enough in his win over Mardy Fish and rightly is the favourite to take home the Wimbledon crown for the 3rd time. However, he knows how difficult it will be to beat Murray after overcoming him in Paris in a match where he saved a huge number of break points and played the big points brilliantly.

Nadal has won their 2 previous meetings at Wimbledon without dropping a set, but this match looks certain to be closer with the way Murray is playing.

Unfortunately for British hopes, Murray's second serve is still a liability that could be exposed by Nadal, while the Scot also seems to play within himself at the crucial times in sets.

I look to see Nadal take control of the rallies when Murray has to serve a second, and I also believe the Spaniard has more belief in his game on this slow surface.

I do expect Murray to take a set this time, but Nadal to prove too strong again and break British hearts.


MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 @ 7.5 BetFred (1 Unit)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 17.67 Units (+ 3.86 Units Day 10)

Wimbledon Day 6 Picks

Day 5 was yet another good day for us with the picks going 3-1 and Tomas Berdych well on his way to clearing the handicap before the rain came. Hopefully that wont disrupt the big Czech too much and he should grab the couple games he needs to move through the draw in straight sets.

The tournament is now beginning to heat up as the 4th Round takes shape- personally I am looking forward to the Andy Murray-Richard Gasquet match, although there are possibilities of seeing Rafael Nadal-Juan Martin Del Potro and Marion Bartoli-Serena Williams which makes Monday a great day for ticket holders.

Hopefully the form of the last couple of days can continue before we get to Middle Sunday. On that day I will recap the last week, giving my opinion of the big stories of the week as well as updating the progress of the last week's daily and outright picks.


Now on to Day 6 Picks:


Roger Federer -  7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: If this match had taken place in 2005, it would have been a real test for Roger Federer. Unfortunately for us David Nalbandian fans, our man has not really been in the best of form although I do expect him to raise his game against his old rival.

Federer has been serving magnificantly in recent weeks since the French Open began, and that could negate the pressure that Nalbandian will be able to put on the serve with his excellent returning game.

I expect the Argentine to keep it close for a while, but his game can break down when he gets behind and I believe Federer will get a 6-1/6-2 set under his belt to ensure this spread is covered.

Nalbandian's serve has always been a weak point of his game and I dont think he is consistent enough off the ground at this moment in time to cause problems for long enough in this match.


Michael Llodra - 4.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Yen-Hsun Lu has once again shown he can play on the grass courts after beating Viktor Troicki in the last Round in what was considered a big upset. This comes only a year after he reached the Quarter Final here after beating Andy Roddick in 5 sets.

However, Lu now faces a huge test in the form of Michael Llodra, a serve-volley player that is more than comfortable on the grass. Llodra has taken advantage of the draw to reach this stage and will be confident he can beat Lu.

That confidence comes from a 3-1 head to head record for Llodra against Lu. 2 of those wins took place on grass courts, Llodra winning all 4 sets competed for the loss of just 6 games.

Llodra will continue to put pressure on Lu throughout the match with his chip-charge on returns and I expect he will get through while covering the spread.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets vs Fernando Gonzalez: I have said it before on my twitter feed, but I will say it again here- it is really great to see Fernando Gonzalez back in action and making inroads in a Grand Slam. The Chilean has missed the majority of the last 10 months through injury and he had barely played before this tournament began.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came through a tough 4 setter against Grigor Dimitrov and was surprisingly insightful when admitting he is struggling to keep his composure to close out games. It was particularly surprising considering he reached the Final at Queens just 2 weeks ago.

Tsonga does go through some ups and downs during his matches and he has the tendency to lose concentration and thus lose sets, especially in these longer formats at Grand Slam level.

Gonzalez won their only previous meeting at the US Open in 2009 in 4 sets, but this is his toughest test since returning from injury so it would be a real shock if he gets through.

However, he can take advantage of any lapses in concentration by Tsonga and steal a set in the process of exiting the tournament.


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Petra Cetkovska: Petra Cetkovska fought valiantly to beat Agnieska Radwanska in the last Round, but she now faces another tough test in the form of Ana Ivanovic.

Ivanovic is definitely restoring her confidence since the lows of last season, and she has come through the first 2 Rounds with the loss of just 4 games. She has the big serve that gets her a number of free points and her heavy groundstrokes makes it hard for the Women who are ranked below her.

Cetkovska has needed 6 sets to get through her first 2 Rounds and could be a little fatigued after fighting back against Radwanska.

She also has to erase the memory of her 1 and only meeting with Ivanovic- they met in the 4th Round of the 2008 French Open and Ivanovic handed out 2 bagels.

While Ivanovic is not at that same level now, I do expect her to get through while covering the spread.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units) Still Running from Day 5 with Berdych leading 6-2, 6-4, 4-3 (*15-0)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 12.41 Units (+ 5.38 Units Day 5)

French Open Day 1 Picks

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 8.5 games vs Jan Hajek: This is obviously the home Grand Slam for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he is going to begin the tournament on the main show court against an opponent he has dominated in 1 previous meeting.

Tsonga has also showed some decent form in the last 2 Masters tournaments on clay courts in Madrid and Rome and faces a journeyman opponent that has struggled in the last 4 Grand Slams at this level.

Tsonga did struggle in the early rounds here last year, but this is the perfect draw for his game to grow into this tournament.


Marin Cilic - 8.5 games vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo: This looks like a mismatch as Ramirez Hidalgo is in the twilight of his career and has been struggling to win matches, just gaining the W in 2 of his last 8 matches.

Cilic is a solid player that has not had the best of seasons, but his game should be too big for the Spaniard here and I expect the big server to come through in 3 fairly easy sets.


Ernest Gulbis vs Blaz Kavcic, Adrian Mannarino vs Guillermo Rufin Double: Both of these guys are a little inconsistent with their play, but they are facing much weaker oppositiona and there looks to be enough about their games to come through, even if it takes 5 sets to do so.


MY PICKS DAY 1: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 (3 Units)
Marin Cilic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 (3 Units)
Ernest Gulbis and Adrian Mannarino Double @ 2.33 (2 Units)