Tennis Picks 2016 (August 1st)

The Canadian Masters is in the books and put a strong July to a close having made a big dent in the season totals. The 2016 season has been a difficult one for my tennis picks, but July has helped to trim the deficit by almost 50% and that is the kind of momentum I am looking to take into August when we have two major tournaments at the Olympic Games and Cincinnati before the final Grand Slam of the season begins at the US Open on Monday 29th August.

The Olympic Games tennis tournament begins next Saturday, but there are still Tour events being played through this week with events in Nanchang, Florianopolis and Atlanta. The middle event is being played in Brazil and will actually come to a close on Friday so nothing interferes with the Olympic Games being held in Rio de Janeiro, although the other two events will end as they usually do at the weekend.

Finding picks this week from the tournaments which are weaker fields than they would be in a non-Olympic season is going to be difficult. On Monday I really couldn't find anything from the tournaments being played and this post is just updating the season totals after last week.

Perhaps there will be picks from tomorrow if I find anything that appeals, but Monday is going to be a 'rest day' with nothing that leaps off the page.

Season 2016: - 22 Units (1281 Units Staked, - 1.72% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 7th)

This is going to be a very short post because I am seriously pissed off with what has happened over the last month and I try and keep things as civil as possible on here.

The amount of times I have made picks and seen players get into winning positions and then lose or play like shit is just taken its toll on me and I refuse to play along any more.

For four seasons my picks have produced a healthy plus margin and a decent enough yield, but the last month has been absolutely horrific, the worst run in all that time and perhaps the worst run most people would have seen.

There are only so many times you can accept bad luck as part and parcel of things, but this looks like being my worst season by a million miles on the tennis Tour thanks to a run since Wimbledon that has seen 35 positive units erased.

How many times can a pick be in a position like 76, 52 and lose? How many times am I going to deal with a player losing a set 61, but then winning 62, 60 and failing to cover because of that shit set to start?

Players like Nicolas Almagro and Steve Johnson that will lose every other match they play, but somehow bring out their A++++++ matches when I am against them or F----------- matches when I have backed them, it is those kinds of rubbish that have addled my brain. Players who will break with the one chance they get, but then save three thousand break points, or players that will miss their chances by missing the most basic of shots.

Yes, things go up and down, but it has been embarrassingly one-sided against me in the last month with rubbish after rubbish after rubbish... I'd love to just say the picks have been poor, but that would be a lie as there have been plenty that have just about to win before crumbling away like they never had such a positive start.

Just too many things are taking the piss at the moment and I've had enough.

The football season in both England and America will be beginning soon and I'll be focusing on that, but I am not sure when I will be back making tennis picks. Maybe I'll look at the Canadian Masters/Premier Event, maybe I will decide to be back at the Cincinnati Masters, but I've had too many body blows to be interested in the next few days.

It stinks to be honest, but it is the way it goes and possibly I will wait until the US Open and call it a day for the season after the final Grand Slam with whatever the outcome is from that event.

For now, I've simply had enough. I'm not one to bullshit the results, they are there for all to see and I am sure most will understand that this really has been a unique time where literally everything has gone the wrong way when finely balanced.

Weekly Final: 4-13, - 18.34 Units (34 Units Staked, - 53.94% Yield)

Season 2015: - 2.57 Units (1260 Units Staked, - 0.02% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Note: On July 20th, the season total was + 35.25 Units with an almost 4% Yield which just proves how horrendous the last three weeks have been.

I'm also calling both Nicolas Almagro and Steve Johnson lose their matches on this day in embarrassingly one-sided fashion just to prove that luck is really conspiring against me.

Tennis Outright Picks 2015 (February 2-8)

The first Grand Slam of the 2015 season is in the books with the two favourites both succeeding in their aims to win the Singles events that were run at the Australian Open.

Serena Williams looks like she has put down a marker for the season, although all the talk of the her completing a sweep of all the Grand Slam events seems a little premature. Once again there were signs early in the tournament where Serena Williams did look vulnerable and I do think there will be chances for players to perhaps beat her when she is not completely on her game.

Some were also talking about whether Novak Djokovic will be able to win the remaining three Grand Slam events to be played, but that is even more unlikely than Serena Williams doing it. Djokovic played well through the last couple of weeks, but the Australian Open has always been his favourite Slam and there will be big challenges to overcome if he is to go on and win either of the next two Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon.


It is no surprise that the big names are not in action this week after the efforts of playing at the Australian Open, but the Tour doesn't stop and there are stops in Montpellier, Quito and Zagreb on the ATP Tour. The Fed Cup gets underway so there are no main Tour events on the WTA Tour.

The tournament being run in Quito is a new one which takes over from Vina del Mar and is the beginning of the 'Golden Swing' in South America and the first clay events of the season. Plans are always changeable, but Rafael Nadal is expected to play one of the bigger events during this part of the season, while other names like Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will return to action later this month.

The highest Ranked player to take part in the tournaments this week is Number 14 Feliciano Lopez who is taking in the event in Quito, and that also is shown with the big prices being offered in every tournament being played this week.

Without the big names, it is a good chance for someone to add a title to their CV this week and also pick up vital Ranking points that can help see players get into main draws of the bigger events down the line.


I didn't make any picks in the first two weeks of the tennis season after looking at the records over the last few seasons and realising I didn't have a good read of the form of players coming off a relatively long absence.

The off-season means new tactics, perhaps new motivation for players and others are still trying to peak for the Australian Open.

It turned out to be very much the correct decision after a pretty awesome two weeks at the Grand Slam to give the 2015 season a perfect start.

Hopefully February turns out to be another successful month to back up the Australian Open success.


ATP Zagreb
I am concentrating on the tournament being played in Zagreb for my outright picks this week because I feel the two players at the top of the Montpellier draws, Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils, are a little short considering the lack of form they have displayed.

The event in Quito looks wide open considering the top Seed is Feliciano Lopez and his struggles on clay courts, while the other players involved have been inconsistent to say the least.


Zagreb looks a wide open tournament which has been dominated by home players in recent years- 5 of the last 6 winners here have been Croatian, although Marin Cilic is not fit enough to return to the Tour and try and win here for the third time in a row.

Ivo Karlovic leads the way as the Number 1 Seed and I can imagine that he might have a few supporters this week, but he hasn't been beyond the Quarter Final in Zagreb before. He has also been given a pretty tough draw with a potential Second Round match against Marcos Baghdatis in the offing and Mikhail Youzhny, a former Champion here, a potential Quarter Final opponent.

That might open the door for someone like Victor Troicki to breakthrough in the top half of the draw and he has plenty of supporters this week which has seen him backed down to joint-favourite to win the event.

Troicki has returned with new motivation from his ban and he already has one title this season as be bids to move back up the Rankings. while the draw looks a good one for him. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is a tough potential Quarter Final opponent, but you would think the indoor hard court conditions would favour Troicki in that potential match up and he is worth backing this week.


However, I also want to back Ivan Dodig from the bottom half of the draw as a former winner of this event and with the trend that has favoured a Croatian winner in Zagreb. Dodig has a Quarter Final under his belt this season and he did push Kei Nishikori, while I expect the indoor hard court will favour the booming serve and aggressive play that Dodig likes to demonstrate.

He has reached the Quarter Final in three consecutive appearances in Zagreb since winning the event, but a defeat to eventual Champion Marin Cilic last season isn't a disappointing result. Dodig won't have a lot to fear in the bottom half of the draw until the Semi Final stage at least and can keep up the proud record the Croatian players have in front of their own fans.

As a former winner here, I think Dodig looks a pretty big price to earn a title again and make a positive move up the Rankings from his current position of 85th.

MY PICKS: Victor Troicki @ 6.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)
Ivan Dodig @ 13.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)

Australian Open Daily Picks Final: 36-23, + 29.35 Units (111 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
Australian Open Outright Picks Final: 1-3, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20 % Yield)


Season 2015: + 27.35 Units (121 Units Staked, + 22.60% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 28th)

It wasn't the best of weeks for the picks last week, but the John Isner win in Atlanta at least reduced some of the losses... However, I much prefer when a little is put into the season totals not taking some out of those and I will be looking for improved results this week.

I didn't bother with the outright picks this week with both the ATP events looking far more open than I would like, while the WTA events are bringing together some of the best players on their Tour. However, a lot of those players haven't played much, or at all, since Wimbledon so it is better to take a watching brief for the tournaments as a whole.

Next week will be the first of the two Masters/Premier Events of the summer leading into US Open which is now only four weeks away. That means the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Maria Sharapova all will be making their return to the Tour after a few weeks off and the events will certainly begin to feel more and more important.


Most people will have turned their attention to the hard court season already with events in Washington and Stanford this week, although some players are just trying to pick up a few more Ranking points by competing in the ATP event in Kitzbuhel, the final clay court event of the season.

I'll be hoping the new game this week brings in more success than last week.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Kimiko Date-Krumm: This summer, we have seen a number of teenagers on the ATP Tour really begin to make an impact in main Tour events, but the WTA still has a 43 year old competing with all the younger players on their Tour.

Kimiko Date-Krumm has begun to slip down the Rankings and it is getting harder and harder for her to hold off the tide of younger players that are making an impact on the WTA Tour. It is tough to see how she will deal with Karolina Pliskova who is much improved from the player that was beaten in three sets by Date-Krumm two years ago in Dubai.

Pliskova can make a real move up the Rankings over the next few weeks with limited points to defend and she has been performing well on the hard courts this season. She also has more competitive tennis recently than Date-Krumm who hasn't played since Wimbledon and back to back Quarter Finals since the third Slam of the year should have given Pliskova confidence.

My only concern for her is that she can be a little erratic and doesn't change a losing game plan, but I do think she can find the win in this one, even if it takes three sets, and I like Pliskova winning 62, 46, 64.


Caroline Garcia v Varvara Lepchenko: I don't think I agree with Andy Murray in his forecast for Caroline Garcia to be a future World Number 1 on the WTA Tour, but she is certainly capable of moving far above her current Ranking of 44.

The Frenchwoman has shown some signs of being a top player on the Tour, but she is still lacking some consistency which shouldn't surprise considering she is still only 20 years old. She hasn't had the most success on the hard courts either, but I still believe Garcia can beat Varvara Lepchenko.

Lepchenko has struggled for the last eighteen months and it does seem her 2012 season might be a career-high. The worry for the American is the poor form on the hard courts, although Lepchenko did reach the Quarter Final in Stanford last season.

She has a powerful game, but inconsistencies have seen her throw in a lot of errors in matches and Garcia also holds a mental edge with two wins over Lepchenko on the main Tour. That includes last month at Wimbledon, and I think that edge may prove to be the difference in a three set win.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 12-15, - 7.26 Units (54 Units Staked, - 13.44% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 1-1, + 4 Units (3 Units Staked, + 75% Yield)

Season 2014: + 48.58 Units (1185.5 Units Staked, + 4.10% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (July 21-27)

There are another five tournaments scheduled for this week with three men's events and two women's events, although I am not going to be making any outright picks from the latter two. The way I see it, if Shuai Peng and Sorana Cirstea are the two Number 1 Seeds, those tournaments really aren't bringing the best talents to the court.

It is also still that time of the year when the biggest names in the men's game are also still getting ready for the North American hard court swing and the majority of those won't be back until Toronto in a couple of weeks time. The hard court tournament in Atlanta is dominated by the home players, while we still have a couple more European clay court events in Gstaad and Umag taking place this week.


Last week was a mixed one, but the Saturday helped to ensure it wasn't going to be a losing week with a 4-1 day in the Semi Final picks made. It's been an average couple of weeks since the end of Wimbledon, but maintaing the season totals can't be ignored especially as this can be a portion of the year when I have struggled before the hard court season begins.


ATP Atlanta
This is the fifth edition of the ATP 250 event in Atlanta which signals the official beginning of the US hard court swing and it has been a tournament dominated by the home players with all four previous titles being won by an American.

John Isner is the top seed in Atlanta this week and comes in as defending Champion, while he has also been a Runner Up twice here- Isner gets plenty of support at the event having attended the University of Georgia and I can understand why he is the favourite to win the event again this week.

He had a disappointing loss in Newport a couple of weeks ago, but Isner receives a bye into the Second Round and looks by far the strongest player in his mini-section. I would expect Isner to get into the Semi Final with few problems and then I think he is capable of getting the better of Gael Monfils or Denis Istomin.

Last year's Runner Up Kevin Anderson and Sam Querrey from the bottom half of the draw may also feel very comfortable on the hard courts with their big games working on this surface. Both will go deep into the draw I can imagine, but the trend is to back an American in this event and I think John Isner is the call this week.


ATP Umag
The two Finalists from this tournament twelve months ago are the top two seeds in Umag this week as Fabio Fognini and Tommy Robredo bookend the draw, but neither player has been in the kind of form that will get them back to the Final.

Last summer Fabio Fognini enjoyed a lot of success on the clay at this time of the year, but he hasn't produced the same in exiting the Stuttgart Quarter Final and Hamburg Second Round. Tommy Robredo is another that has struggled for form and I think that could open the door for someone like Marin Cilic who is the Number 3 Seed.

Cilic would have been the defending Champion last year, but was off the Tour serving a ban for misreading a supplement he had used. Now he is back in front of his home fans where Cilic has reached the Final in 2011 and 2012.

He has been playing well and Cilic won't be intimidated in having to go through a player like Lukas Rosol despite the form the latter has shown over the last month. Cilic doesn't shy away from the clay courts where his aggressive return of serve can pay dividends.

In all honesty, the Croatian is in the harder half of the draw and I think he would have been a much stronger favourite if he was in the top half. However, Cilic has all the tools to reclaim the title he couldn't defend last season and I will have a small interest in him doing that.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: John Isner @ 3.50 Coral (2 Units)
Marin Cilic @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)

Weekly Final: 14-13, + 2.04 Units (54 Units Staked, + 3.78% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2014: + 51.84 Units (1128.5 Units Staked, + 4.59% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (July 14-20)

The last grass court event of the season came to an end last week and the Tour moves onto the biggest clay court event held in the summer with the ATP 500 tournament in Hamburg. We also get to see the first signs of the summer hard court swing with Bogota in the men's and Istanbul in the women's Tours getting underway this week.

The big names won't be in action until the tournaments held in Canada in two weeks time, but that doesn't mean there aren't some big titles to be won and the players in action will certainly feel they can pick up vital Ranking points that might set them up for a decent few weeks heading into the US Open.


ATP Bogota
This is the second year that this ATP 250 tournament in Colombia is being held and the altitude of the stadium made it a server's paradise a year ago. On that occasion, big servers like Vasek Pospisil, Kevin Anderson and Ivo Karlovic all made the Semi Finals along with home favourite Alejandro Falla and three of those four players are back to compete for the title again.

It was Ivo Karlovic who won the title twelve months ago and is the Number 2 Seed this time which means he has a bye to the Second Round, but Karlovic is also coming off a big week in Newport where he has reached the Final (playing Lleyton Hewitt as I write this).

The big man has been placed in the 'weaker' half of the draw as he looks to defend his title, although his biggest threat could be Radek Stepanek who is a potential Semi Final opponent and who has won four of their five previous meetings.

Stepanek has been in decent form over the grass court season, but he would likely have to beat a couple of home hopes to reach the Semi Final and I do think Karlovic has every chance of at least reaching the Final again. However, I will look elsewhere simply because he has had a long week in Newport and there is no telling how much energy the 35 year old will have left after making the journey down to Colombia.

This isn't the deepest draw in terms of talent so looking at the Number 1 Seed Richard Gasquet is not a surprise with his previous hard court success. He could have a difficult match against the big-serving Samuel Groth in the Second Round, his first match here, but if the Frenchman can negotiate that, I would fancy him to get to the Final at the very least.

Gasquet could also be fortunate to take on whoever comes out of the second section of the draw as they are likely to have had a number of tough matches to that point. Both Falla and Pospisil are in this mini-section, but are joined by the likes of Bernard Tomic and Adrian Mannarino who will believe they can make their way into the Semi Finals.

Tiredness may become a factor for them and backing Gasquet, who does look the cream of the talent in Bogota, is going to be my call from this tournament.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 6-4, + 4.04 Units (20 Units Staked, + 20.20% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2014: + 51.80 Units (1072.5 Units Staked, + 4.83% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (July 7-13)

The men's Final at Wimbledon was one of the better tennis matches I have seen, but I will admit that I didn't put it on the same pedestal as a lot of people seemed to be after the conclusion of Novak Djokovic's win over Roger Federer.

For instance, it wasn't anything close to the drama of the Rafael Nadal versus Roger Federer Final of 2008 and even the Andy Roddick five set loss to Roger Federer 2009 at Wimbledon seemed to have more drama attached to it.

If I am being brutal, I think Novak Djokovic would have been kicking himself if he had lost this match as he had a set point in the tie-break in the first set, on his own serve no less, and should have completed the victory in the fourth set. The other two Finals I mentioned had more dramatics about it and more shifts of momentum where you couldn't really pick a winner until the final shot had been played.


That isn't taking anything away from the Final on Sunday as Roger Federer almost found the will to turn around the match and win a record eighth title at Wimbledon and also put another Grand Slam trophy into his cabinet. A lot of people will begin wondering if we will ever see Federer in another Slam Final, although the great Champion feels the last two weeks are a 'stepping stone' for better things to come.

In my opinion, Federer took advantage of a very kind draw in terms of scheduling and opponents at this tournament and whether he gets that 'perfect storm' again is hard to know. I'd always consider the Rafael Nadal match up a terrible one for Federer, but he could come through if on the other half of the draw to the Spaniard even if there are other players that do feel they can take out Federer if bringing their best to the court.

It was interesting to hear Federer speak about the 'new generation' and describing them as 'interchangeable' at the moment and feeling he can take them all on at his best. The US Open are the kind of courts that will work well for Federer's aggression and will remain, along with Wimbledon, the best chance for the former World Number 1 to win another Grand Slam.


I made my thoughts on what I will be expecting of Petra Kvitova going forward after she won her second Wimbledon title, but she has to back that up in the coming weeks and really try and put in a strong showing at the US Open. With doubts about the health of Serena Williams and a slight opening between the veterans and the new faces on the WTA Tour, Kvitova has a chance to exploit those gaps with her own experiences and pick up more major titles.


As sad as it is to see a Grand Slam come to a close, the Tour doesn't stop moving forward during the year and that is the case this week. While the biggest names in both men's and women's Tours all having a week of recuperation, this is a chance for others to get back into tournament play and try and pick up a title.

The final grass court tournament of the season is played in Newport, while European clay court events are held in Budapest (WTA), Bad Gastein (WTA), Bastad (ATP) and Stuttgart (ATP) this week. It will be all change next season with Stuttgart moving into a grass court event in preparation for Wimbledon which would have got through the first week of the event in twelve months time.


ATP Bastad
The tournament in Bastad has been dominated by Spanish players in recent years with six of the last nine winners coming from that country and it is hard to look elsewhere when considering the top three Seeds this week are from Spain.

However, it won't be as clear cut as that with doubts about the fitness of David Ferrer who leads the players at the top of the draw. He didn't look himself at Wimbledon and I am not sure if there is a nagging fitness issue that is preventing Ferrer battling as much as he has in the past, but whatever the reason is has to put off backing him this week.

Tommy Robredo has won this title two times in the past, but he hasn't had the best season to this point and suffered some early losses at this time of the season twelve months ago.

That leaves Fernando Verdasco who was a Finalist here last season and who has won a title in Houston and reached the Fourth Round of the French Open on the clay courts this season. Unlike last season, Verdasco is coming into Bastad off a poor Wimbledon campaign, but the draw looks a kind one with a bye in the First Round.

Inconsistencies blight Verdasco's game, but he should have enough to get through to the Semi Final before facing either Robredo or Jeremy Chardy which will be a tough match, but I do think Verdasco has a few big shots and could be very confident by this point.

Another player that will feel he can go deep into the tournament is the defending Champion Carlos Berlocq, and he has won a title already this season on the clay or Oeiras, but that has been an exception to his 2014 season so far. Therefore I will back Verdasco to go one better than last season and take the title home in Bastad to become the latest Spaniard to win at this tournament.


ATP Newport
It has always felt a little weird to me that the ATP Newport tournament is the final one played on grass and comes after Wimbledon comes to a close, but it represents the chance for someone to pick up a title. The top Seed this week is John Isner and he is also a pretty healthy favourite to win the title, something that I can't disagree with.

Isner won the title here in 2011 and 2012, while his Semi Final defeat last year came after withdrawing from Wimbledon with an injury after playing just two games in the First Round. The draw has been kind to the big-serving American who will begin with a qualifier and won't have many names in the top half of the draw that would intimidate him.

One of those could be Lleyton Hewitt who has been a Runner Up in Newport in the last two seasons, but who is no guarantee to get to the Semi Final stage to take on Isner as he comes up against Ryan Harrison in the First Round. Hewitt also lost to big-servers at Queens and Wimbledon and I think his win over Isner last season came thanks in part to the injury that the American was coming back from.

The lower half of the draw would provide a real challenge for Isner if he does reach the Final with names like Adrian Mannarino, Ivo Karlovic, Sergiy Stakhovsky and defending Champion Nicolas Mahut all capable of playing on this surface.

Picking which of those players is going to come out of the bottom half is a difficult task and there could be some tiredness in those legs that John Isner takes advantage of.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Fernando Verdasco @ 8.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)
John Isner @ 3.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Daily Final: 38-29, + 20.94 Units (125 Units Staked, + 16.75% Yield)
Wimbledon Outright: 1-6, - 6 Units (13 Units Staked, - 46.15% Yield)

Season 2014: + 51.76 Units (1048.5 Units Staked, + 4.94% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2014 (June 16th)

Last week is usually the time when the big names from the men's game take to the court for their sole preparation for Wimbledon in competitive grass court action and this week it is the biggest names in the women's game that get going. Aside from Serena Williams, Na Li and Maria Sharapova, most of the stars of the WTA Tour head down to Eastbourne including Victoria Azarenka who has recovered from an injury that saw her miss out on the French Open.

I tend to stay away from the outright picks in the final week before a Grand Slam tournament because I do feel that factor alone makes it hard to get a total read on motivation for players. That is especially the case if a player is down a set and how much desire they have to fight back and expend energy they might want to reserve for the next big tournament which begins in seven days time.


Last week also looked to be a terrible one for the picks as I just couldn't seem to catch a break from the picks I was making, but both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer won tournaments as they helped recover the losses and actually end the week with some more positive results to add to the season. Hopefully this week won't see my picks having such a torrid time, especially with no outright picks to save the week, but it is a new game and will bring some momentum into the third Grand Slam of the season.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Alison Riske: The grass courts have certainly been a surface that Alison Riske has enjoyed with her decent serve and power shots really skidding off the court and enabling her to win plenty of matches.

She had a run to the Third Round in Birmingham last week and should give Angelique Kerber plenty to think about, although I do think the German's defence will extract enough errors from Riske's game to help her move through to the Second Round.

Kerber isn't solely a defensive player as she too also has a decent serve and penetrating groundstrokes, so it is something of a surprise to me that so many breaks of serve were achieved when they met at the Australian Open back in January.

I am guessing the grass courts will mean we don't see as many breaks as in that match, but I still think Kerber can win another one against Riske and come through 64, 64.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: After reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon last season, and previously also playing in her sole Grand Slam Final on the grass courts, Agnieszka Radwanska should be feeling confident she can have another big run at the next Grand Slam beginning next week.

It would be nice for Radwanska to get some tennis under her feet on the surface, although her early exit didn't bother her a year ago in Easbourne, and I do think the match up with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is a good one for the Pole.

Radwanska can frustrate Pavlyuchenkova and that leads to errors with the Russian trying to play that much closer to the lines. I also think the grass courts can expose some of the limited movement of Pavlyuchenkova and I really don't think she is as comfortable on this surface as the other ones we see on the Tour during the season.

With that in mind, I expect a tight first set to be won by Radwanska who can then pull away in the match for a 64, 62 win.


Tamira Paszek v Su-Wei Hsieh: Tamira Paszek still loves playing on the grass and she has come through the qualifiers in Eastbourne which should just help her feel a little more confident of winning this First Round match against fellow qualifier Su-Wei Hsieh.

Out of the two players, you would have to say that Paszek has the better grass court pedigree as this is probably her favourite portion of the season and I was surprised that the layers only make a small favourite to win the match outright.

Hsieh has also qualified for the event so can't be totally disregarded, but Paszek should have too much in the locker to move through to the Second Round.


Ivo Karlovic v Jeremy Chardy: This isn't a match that I would be predicting to see too many breaks of serve, but Eastbourne is a venue where Ivo Karlovic has won the title before and he has been playing some good tennis over the last couple of months.

The conditions should favour the big serving of Karlovic and we all saw how Jeremy Chardy couldn't hand that when losing to Sam Querrey at Queens last week. The Frenchman is a solid player on grass, but his return game can be erratic and it may be tough for him to really get involved if Karlovic is serving to the level he has been of late.

Karlovic did suffer a loss in Halle in straight sets when losing two tie-breakers, but I think his serve is 'safer' than Chardy's and that may make the difference in critical moments in the match.

We could see three tie-breakers in this one, but Ivo Karlovic's ability to get to the net may win the match for him.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Tamira Paszek @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Daily Final: 10-19, - 18.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 32.31% Yield)
Weekly Outright Final: 2-2, + 23 Units (11 Units Staked, + 209% Yield)

Season 2014: + 51.86 Units (876.5 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (June 9-15)

The second Grand Slam of the season is only just in the books, yet the attention quickly turns to the third coming up at Wimbledon which begins in two weeks on Monday. From next season, players will have the luxury of an extra week between the French Open and Wimbledon which should mean more of the big names will be taking part in the warm up events, especially as Queens and Halle will both be converted into ATP 500 events.

We now move surfaces too for the next month as the grass court tournaments earn the most attention in the coming weeks with the end of the clay court season (main season at least, there are still some more tournaments on the surface following Wimbledon).


It was a very strong second Major of the season with shocks in both tournaments early in the event which opened the door for new faces at the latter end of a tournament, especially in the women's draw, but the two Champions will be very familiar to fans. Maria Sharapova had to dig incredibly deep within herself to beat Simona Halep, but I think the latter has announced herself on the big stage and will be a challenger for a few years to come for the big prizes.

The likes of Garbine Muguruza and Eugenie Bouchard join Halep and Sloane Stephens as the faces of a new generation that will be looking to replace the likes of Sharapova and Serena Williams, although the latter two remain leading contenders to add to their Slams in the remaining months of this season.


Ernests Gulbis was the surprise Semi Finalist from the men's draw and he is clearly hungry for more, but the expected Final did come together as Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic served up another treat for the watching public. The win for Nadal was an incredible ninth success at the French Open and not many will be betting against him making it ten next season after the Spaniard went off as the second favourite two weeks ago.

By the time the Final rolled around, Nadal was once again the favourite to win the title, but I don't think too many layers will be risking him as a second favourite at Roland Garros for at least another three years.


I had to feel for Novak Djokovic in the manner he was defeated as he seemingly had nothing left in the tank and it was the crucial second set and being broken in the twelve game that ended up costing him the match in my opinion. He seems to have put so much into winning the French Open over the last three seasons and recovering from this defeat is going to be tough mentally, especially with Wimbledon just around the corner.

Big losses in big matches have become something of a feature for Djokovic over the last twelve months with two devastating losses in the French Open to Nadal, while also losing the Wimbledon Final and the US Open Final, the latter again coming at the hands of Nadal. With the Australian Open crown slipping earlier in January, the next two Majors are a huge deal for Djokovic as he looks to snap a run of eighteen months without a Slam, a mental burden that will get heavier and heavier with each passing tournament.

Djokovic is extremely talented, but concentration has let him down at times with matches going further than they need to when he drops silly sets and I think that drained energy ahead of the Final on Sunday (dropped set to Gulbis from two sets up and dominating the match it seemed) and at Wimbledon last year (dropped fourth set to Juan Martin Del Potro in a tie-break despite serving for the match).

He needs to keep something in the tank and has to come through matches with a little more comfort when he is dominating, but the World Number 2 remains a favourite to win any Slam he enters. However, the fact remains that he is now 6-7 in thirteen Slam Finals contested and that says there is either something mental blocking him from really accelerating into position as the top player in the World or he is not giving himself enough energy in reserve to finish off against one of the other powerhouses of the men's game.


With three days left of the tournament, I wrote on here that I believed this was not going to be a great tournament for the picks despite the success the last three years have been at the French Open. Things certainly turned around from then with four straight winners in both men's and women's Finals as well as the two men's Semi Finals.

Add Rafael Nadal's success of winning the tournament and the outright picks also produced a profit and actually meant the last two weeks went better than I was expecting.

There is no rest for the wicked though as a new game begins on Monday and I will be having a couple of outright picks from the tournaments that are taking place at Queens Club, Halle and Birmingham.

ATP Halle

Even before the draw had been made in Halle, I figured it was going to be a big ask for Rafael Nadal to take his place at the head of the draw despite the long-term contract he has signed with the tournament. As soon as the Spaniard reached the French Open Final, it seemed to be that Nadal may not be ready to go in this event, very much as he couldn't twelve months ago following his eighth title win.

There is the chance that Nadal will travel to Germany with that long-term contract in mind, but I can't imagine he will be set for a long week in Halle on a new surface- Nadal has won the title at the Queens Club in preparation for Wimbledon before, but hasn't been beyond the Quarter Final in his five other appearances at Halle/Queens during this week and I think it'll be tough for him to pass that stage from a physical point of view this time.

So who is the player most likely to take advantage of a Nadal exit from the top half of the draw? The leading contenders seem to be Philipp Kohlschreiber, Richard Gasquet and Milos Raonic.

I would rule out Gasquet simply because he was still complaining about his back at Roland Garros and openly admitted he was only playing because he didn't want to miss his home Grand Slam and I can see the Frenchman not being quite ready this week to go deep into the event. Jerzy Janowicz, last year's Wimbledon Semi Finalist, is also in the top half but has been incredibly out of form in 2014 and it would be a remarkable turnaround for him to reach the Final, even with that huge serve that should work beautifully on the grass courts.

Philipp Kohlschreiber is a former winner in Halle and definitely gets a lot of respect from me, but Andreas Seppi is a difficult First Round opponent and that may be the banana skin that slips the German up early on this week.

This all leaves Milos Raonic- he is a two time former Quarter Finalist in Halle, although the Canadian surprisingly struggled on the grass courts last year with three surprisingly early exits, and he can't complain about the draw with a bye through to the Second Round.

Raonic hasn't won a title in 2014, but had an unexpectedly successful clay court season so should have the confidence for a big week in Germany. He can play his way into the tournament and may take advantage of the factors that could affect the week that either Nadal or Gasquet can have as the big threats in the top half of the draw in normal circumstances.

An each-way interest on Milos Raonic is recommended, but the player most likely to win the tournament is one of those that have beaten the Canadian in Halle at the Quarter Final stage, Roger Federer.

It was a disappointing French Open for Federer, but he remains in love with the grass courts and his preparation for Roland Garros was probably not to the high standard that Federer would normally prepare for a Slam. With an extra week to spend with the new twin family members, Federer should be raring to go in Halle where he has won many titles in the past and is defending Champion.

The seeds in the bottom half have a couple of doubts about their ability to beat Federer as both Tommy Haas and Kei Nishikori have niggling injuries, while Mikhail Youzhny has never beaten Federer and lost all seven previous matches on grass including the Final in 2013.

Change of surface can lead to some doubts, but Federer has regularly managed to do that effectively in Halle and I think the former World Number 1 can give himself a shot of confidence before returning to Wimbledon where he has been so successful in the past.

ATP Queens

It has been nine years since someone has managed to defend the title at London Queens Club, but Andy Murray has proven himself to be arguably the best grass court player in the world over the last two seasons and will surely come close to managing to do that this year.

Murray employed Amelie Mauresmo as his new coach this weekend and the Frenchwoman will be in his corner for the grass court season before deciding whether they will take the relationship on from there and the draw means the team can make a perfect start.

He is a three time former winner at this tournament, although has had early exits the year after winning the previous two titles so Murray must be looking to avoid that fate again. A strong Roland Garros will have given Murray more confidence and being placed in the 'weaker' half of the draw is yet another benefit.

Even those players that will be considered the most dangerous in this half of the draw are in the final quarter and will have to battle amongst themselves to meet Murray in a potential Semi Final and I would expect the home favourite to beat Kevin Anderson in any potential Quarter Final.

Those players including Lleyton Hewitt, Ernests Gulbis, Feliciano Lopez and Tomas Berdych would all pose problems, but Murray would be a healthy favourite to beat any of those and I like backing him to win for the fourth time at this tournament.

Murray will also be fortunate to see some of the top grass court players at the event also being placed in the other half of the section- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has had a lot of success at Queens, but he is in the same quarter of the draw with the top seed Stanislas Wawrinka and the extremely dangerous Marin Cilic who are all amongst the leading contenders to win the title here.

The player that could potentially take advantage and be in a good physical place to take advantage is Grigor Dimitrov who has reached the Semi Final here before and has the game that naturally suits the grass courts I feel. Dimitrov had a poor French Open with a surprising First Round exit against Ivo Karlovic, but he is making strides on the Tour and can reach another Tour Final.

The big threat make be the serve-volleying skills of Nicolas Mahut who had a huge grass court season last year and has reached the Final here before. Mahut is a very confident player on the surface and won't be an easy Third Round opponent if both the Frenchman and Dimitrov reach that stage, but the latter did beat him on his way to the Semi Final at Queens in 2012.

I'd expect Dimitrov to beat either Dmitry Tursunov or Alexandr Dolgopolov on the grass which could mean the Bulgarian can quietly make his way to the Semi Final and potentially pick off whichever player reaches that stage from the difficult first quarter.

Dimitrov is a big price at a couple of layers, reaching double digits, and could be worth an each-way investment on a surface where I do believe we could see big things from him through his career.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.75 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Milos Raonic @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Andy Murray @ 3.00 Bet Fred (3 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 15.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)

French Open Daily Final: 30-26, + 10.88 Units (107 Units Staked, + 10.17% Yield)
French Open Outright Final: 2-4, + 2.02 Units (12.5 Units Staked, + 16.16% Yield)

Season 2014: + 47.60 Units (807.5 Units Staked, + 5.89% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Monte Carlo Tennis Picks 2014 (April 14th)

My holiday coincided with the first of the clay court tournaments in 2014 and also with the Davis Cup Quarter Finals, but it was good to see Switzerland making it through to the Semi Final in that competition.

I picked the Swiss to win the Davis Cup at the start of the season and they will be big favourites, as long as they steer clear of injuries to Stanislas Wawrinka and Roger Federer, to beat Italy and make it through to the Final now.


I am a big fan of the clay court season and really enjoyed my time at the French Open last year, but the tournaments are going to be dominated in terms of favouritism by Rafael Nadal in the men's draws and that is no different this week. The draw will always be important, but Nadal has also benefited in that department this week and it would be a surprise if he doesn't make it through to the Final and have a chance to reclaim the title he lost last season.

That could all depend on who he faces in the Final, but Novak Djokovic looks a little short with the likes of Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer and Fabio Fognini in his side of the draw and I would like to see how he negotiates that draw.


With that in mind, I didn't make any outright picks this week, but I will be making picks from the matches that will be played through the week, beginning on Monday (although some First Round matches were played on Sunday).


Benoit Paire v Albert Montanes: Benoit Paire hasn't played a lot of tennis since the Australian Open, but he beat Albert Montanes last week in Casablanca and I believe he is worth backing to do that again this week.

The clay courts may be Montanes' favourite surface and he may have the confidence that comes with winning a couple of qualifiers here in Monte Carlo, but the support should be behind Paire and I think he has the tools that will make this match swing in his direction.

While there will be breaks of serve, Paire certainly has the bigger shot in that department and could earn a few more 'cheaper' points that should help him come through the match. Last week that shot proved to be the difference in the three set win for Paire and I think there is every chance this match goes the distance too.

However, the little more stability behind serve should give Paire the chance to move through to the Second Round as long as he hasn't reacted negatively to the first bit of competitive tennis he played in months last week.

MY PICKS: Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Miami Weekly Picks: 13-11, + 1.76 Units (48 Units Staked, + 3.67% Yield)
Miami Outright Picks: 1-3, - 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, - 15.63% Yield)

Season 2014: + 38.05 Units (519 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Miami Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (March 17-30)

This is the part of the season where we see a quick turnaround from the first Masters/Premier Event to the second as the Tour moves from California to Florida. Indian Wells is usually the more 'surprising' event of the two and I expect Miami to have a more familiar feel come the end of the week.

It is another important event for the top players and the returning Serena Williams gives the WTA draw a real favourite after the Flavia Pennetta win last week in an open draw. Victoria Azarenka is not going to take part this week, but I believe Serena Williams is the player that really gives the women's draw legitimacy.


The men's draw has turned upside down this week too with the likes of Roger Federer and Andy Murray placed in Novak Djokovic's side of the draw instead of with Rafael Nadal like last week.


It should be another decent week of tennis, the last before the clay court season kicks off on the road to the French Open. The picks also had another nice week and keeps the season profit ticking along in the right direction.

WTA Premier Event Draw

As I said above, the return of Serena Williams has given the women's draw a real favourite and the way the names have come out suggests she is the right choice to win the tournament having done so twelve months ago.

My biggest concern for Williams is some of the stories suggesting all is not well in her personal relationship with Patrick Mouratoglou and that can have an effect on any player on the Tour when they are not comfortable off the court. It may also be the reason that Serena has failed to win the last two tournaments she has entered as she tries to match the high standards set in 2013.

When you look at the players in this half of the draw, some would perhaps make a case for the likes of Maria Sharapova, Ana Ivanovic, Flavia Pennetta, Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber but it would be a real surprise if any of those find themselves too good for Serena Williams before the Final.

Ivanovic may be in the best position to do so, but she is so inconsistent that it would take a brave person to pick the Serbian former World Number 1 to reach any potential Semi Final against Williams.

The other players are either returning from lay offs, have struggled for their own consistency or are coming off a long week to think they can beat a fresh Williams before the Final.

The bottom half of the draw is interesting, although I would run a line through Agnieszka Radwanska immediately after she was struggling with an injury by the end of the tournament in Indian Wells.

Venus Williams showed some real form in winning the tournament in Dubai and will have her backers, but she is in the same mini-section as the likes of Simona Halep and Dominika Cibulkova and the feeling for me is that the player coming out of it could have something taken out of their legs.

Eugenie Bouchard is an interesting player to keep an eye on, but I still want to see how she responds to her run in Australia and a new found attention on her game before I think of her as a potential winner at these Premier Events.

Na Li is another that has to perform much better than she did in Indian Wells despite reaching the Semi Final there and so someone like Jelena Jankovic could make an interesting choice to come out of the bottom section.

Jankovic has been playing well for the better part of twelve months now and has landed in a decent portion of the draw that could see her go deep into the tournament. She will likely have to close out a couple of tough matches to reach the Final, including a likely Quarter Final against the Australian Open Champion Li, but she can certainly surprise a few with a decent run again this week.

ATP Masters Draw

After a disappointing early exit at Indian Wells, Rafael Nadal has a few more questions to answer about his back and how healthy that is following the Australian Open. The World Number 1 himself refuses to answer those now and I think he will be very happy with the draw in Miami as he looks to win the tournament here for the first time.

Last week, Nadal had the likes of Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka in his side of the draw, but the first two of those players won't be seen until the Final, while Wawrinka has admitted he isn't feeling great mentally.

Juan Martin Del Potro is still not over his wrist issues and while there is a chance that someone like Milos Raonic serves through Nadal, you have to like the Spaniard's chances this week to reach the Final here at least.

There are other dangers lower down in his half of the draw, but Nadal has a strong record against Tomas Berdych and might see Marin Cilic run out of gas by the time we reach the Semi Final despite how well the Croatian has been playing. John Isner is another obvious danger with the way he serves and having a strong run in Indian Wells that pushed him into the Top Ten of the World Rankings, but Nadal can certainly show his doubters that he is ready for a strong clay court campaign by displaying some of his best tennis here.

I can imagine there will be a few backers of Novak Djokovic looking for him to complete the Masters double here in Miami, but he has a brutal draw and that would really worry me- he will likely have to beat Ernests Gulbis, Andy Murray and Roger Federer in consecutive matches just to reach the Final and I am not convinced his confidence is fully restored just yet.

That could have been shown by his failure to serve out the match twice against John Isner in the Semi Final last week and also once in the Final against Roger Federer and there is a real chance that Djokovic is surprised before the Final.

Instead of worrying about his quarter of the draw, the top quarter looks like one that Roger Federer will enjoy, especially if he continues playing at the level that he has started 2014 in.

You can't tell how some of the older players will produce from week to week, but Federer is about as fit as they come even if he has lost a slight step in getting around the court. He was serving brilliantly to end the week at Indian Wells and his aggressive brand of tennis should be successful in Miami.

Federer's route to any potential Semi Final looks less fraught with danger than Djokovic's and I think he is playing well enough to see off Richard Gasquet and Grigor Dimitrov who are likely to be the big threats in his section. The former World Number 1 could then be picking the bones of whoever comes out of the Fourth Quarter and Federer has a strong chance of making his third Final in a row, although he is probably hoping that anyone but Rafael Nadal is waiting for him at that moment.

It sounds boring with some of the surprise Finalists we have seen already in 2014, but I went with the bigger priced outsiders last week and at the end of the day it is about finding the right Finalists/Winners. With the way the draw has gone down, I am backing the favourite from the WTA draw, but am using two players against the favourite in the ATP draw.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (3 Units)

Jelena Jankovic @ 26.00 Sky Bet (0.5 Units E/W)

Rafael Nadal @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Roger Federer @ 7.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)

Weekly Picks: 26-20, + 8.10 Units (92 Units Staked, + 8.8% Yield)
Outright Picks: 1-3, + 2 Units (7 Units Staked, + 28.57% Yield)

Season 2014: + 37.54 Units (463 Units Staked, + 8.11% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Indian Wells Tennis Outright Picks (March 5-16)

The Grand Slams are the biggest events in tennis, but Indian Wells is the first of the ATP Masters/WTA Premier Events that take place during the course of the season which means that every big name that plays on the Tour will be in action over the next ten days.

Well, almost all of them- Serena Williams had suggested she was going to end her own absence from the tournament since an incident over ten years ago, but decided against that and will not be back in action until Miami which begins a few days after this tournament ends.

The absence of Williams also opens up the WTA draw, while it may be a surprise to some to see Na Li heading the draw and the likes of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova outside of the top two seeds.


Last week was a very good one for the picks which produced a strong profit and put the season record in a very strong position at the start of the season. The idea is to build on that start from the first two months, but not to get too excited as there will be as many negative weeks as there will be positive and the only thing to do is to try and minimise the former and maximise the latter. It has worked in the past few seasons so hopefully that will be maintained this season too.


The men's draw was to take place on Tuesday afternoon with the First Round action beginning on Thursday, although the women's draw will get underway on Wednesday and the television cameras will pick up the action from Saturday.

Indian Wells WTA Draw

As I have mentioned above, the absence of Serena Williams will always make the women's draw seem wide open as the American remains head and shoulders above the field despite falling short in the last two tournaments she has played.

Without Williams, I truly believe more players will have the confidence that they can take advantage and pick up some decent prize money as well as strong Ranking points, while also developing the confidence to take into the rest of the season when it comes to the Majors.

Na Li is the Number 1 seed for this tournament, but I still think there are some doubts as to how she will react to winning her second Grand Slam title of her career at Melbourne Park six weeks ago. She has lost a surprise match already in Doha and it has to be remembered that Li went 6-9 in her next 15 matches after winning the French Open in 2011 as the rest of the season slipped away.

I don't think that will happen to her this season, but it does bring some doubts about her chances to win the tournament here, especially with the potential of an awkward Second Round clash against Jie Zheng in her way.

However, it has also to be said that getting through that match would open things up for Li who would be favoured to beat Ekaterina Makarova, Petra Kvitova, Dominika Cibulkova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the top quarter of the draw.

Makarova has a bad record against Li, Kvitova is struggling through too many matches that could leave her fatigued by the Quarter Final and Cibulkova might not be able to match the power of the Chinese World Number 2. Of all those players, Pavlyuchenkova could be the most interesting candidate to knock off Li if she can bring in the form that took her to a title in Paris last month.

An interesting choice from the top half of the draw would be the defending Champion Maria Sharapova but she has also got a few doubts to overcome after taking time out to commentate on the Winter Olympics. Coming back off a long lay off to deal with a shoulder injury was always going to be tough, but I think Sharapova would have expected more than a couple of Semi Finals and a Fourth Round loss at the Australian Open.

Indian Wells has been kind to Sharapova in the past and she has reached the Final twice in a row, including winning the event last season.

The biggest problem for Sharapova is there is no easy way to play herself into the draw as she could potentially play Julia Goerges in her first match and the likes of Sorana Cirstea, Flavia Pennetta, Ana Ivanovic and Angelique Kerber will all test the lack of tennis that the Russian has played over the last month.

Another player returning from an absence is Victoria Azarenka who has been placed in the bottom half of the draw. Like Sharapova, it is tough to know what to expect of a player that has not played since the Australian Open and who has been suffering from a foot injury and whether she is really healthy to compete to her usual standard.

To be perfectly honest, Azarenka doesn't have the most taxing draw until the Quarter Finals and I would usually expect her to make that stage without too many issues, except that foot injury and her fitness being hard to shake. The likes of Simona Halep, who won her biggest tournament in her career in Doha in February, and Eugenie Bouchard will hope to take advantage of Azarenka's lack of matches, but it may take someone like Caroline Wozniacki to make it through the draw into the Final.

Wozniacki has shown some signs of improvement with her run to the Semi Final in Dubai, but the former World Number 1 is still to back, especially if she has to beat Agnieszka Radwanska and any of Azarenka/Halep/Bouchard in back to back matches.

I think Radwanska could be there for the taking considering she is coming into the tournament off back to back losses, both surprise results, in Doha and Dubai, but other players like Alize Cornet and Jelena Jankovic will also feel they can go deep into the draw with the form they have displayed over the last month or so.

I know I have pointed out the poor record that Na Li had following her win at the French Open in 2011, but I do think she could have learned from that and her early defeat in Doha could perhaps be forgiven. If Li gets through her Second Round match, I do think she can get on a roll and go all the way to her second big title of 2014 to follow up the Australian Open win.

The doubts mean I can only play a one unit each-way on Li to come through the top half of the draw, but I think the second favourite could be the player to back this week.

I also think a small interest on Caroline Wozniacki is warranted considering she has won the tournament in 2011 and reached the Final in 2010 and last season. There have been signs of improvement in her game and the draw looks a decent one for the most part and she may be the player that takes advantage of out of form/returning players like Agnieszka Radwanska and Victoria Azarenka.

Wozniacki is a big price considering her success at Indian Wells in the last four years and I will keep her onside this week too.

Indian Wells ATP Draw

Immediately, the first thing that sticks out when looking at the Indian Wells draw on the ATP side is how top-heavy it seems to be with Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Roger Federer all in this half of the draw as well as the Australian Open Champion Stanislas Wawrinka.

There are a couple of other guys who have shown form in this half of the draw, but I would be more than a little surprised if one of the four players I have mentioned above are not playing in the Final a week on Sunday.

But which one of the four are most likely? Rafael Nadal is seemingly behind the back issues that affected him in the Final at the Australian Open and is the defending Champion here where the slower hard courts will favour his game.

I am less excited about Andy Murray's chances as he is still not quite at full strength since his back surgery and has had a couple of disappointing losses already in 2014. He should be comfortable getting through to the Quarter Finals here, but I wouldn't fancy his chances against Nadal unless the form displayed in the next week or so is more encouraging.

Roger Federer did win the tournament in Dubai, but also looked a little vulnerable at times. He is given a kind draw here in Indian Wells that should see him make the Quarter Finals without too many issues, but the spectre of Nadal in the Semi Finals will always make it difficult for Federer to make the Final without the Spaniard being knocked out early.

And Federer can't sleep on the current Swiss Number 1, Stanislas Wawrinka, who is unbeaten in 2014- the big question for Wawrinka backers is how is he going to react after winning his first Grand Slam title and the fact he hasn't played since winning at Melbourne Park. That is hard to answer, although the draw is one that I think he would usually negotiate and could set up that big Quarter Final against compatriot and friend Roger Federer.

The bottom half of the draw looks much clearer for Novak Djokovic who has had a disappointing start to 2014 and his partnership with Boris Becker. He has lost to the eventual winner at the Australian Open and Dubai, but the majority of the threats to him at this tournament are on the other side of the draw.

One player who will be an issue is Marin Cilic who has reached three consecutive Finals over the last month and won the title in Zagreb and Delray Beach so is clearly getting back to the form he was showing prior to his three month ban off the Tour. However, it has to be said that most of those tournaments didn't see the top players face Cilic, even if he does hold wins over Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in that time.

That could be a blockbuster Fourth Round encounter if both players come through the draw and the winner has every chance of going all the way to the Final this week. Players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Juan Martin Del Potro have either not shown the form or the injury health to think they can beat either Djokovic or Cilic, even if Del Potro did reach the Final twelve months ago.

Tomas Berdych has made a strong start to 2014 and could be a player that takes advantage in this side of the draw if Djokovic or Cilic are out of form and beaten early, although playing Djokovic has rarely ended well for the Czech player. Other players that have shown some really good form over the last month include Ernests Gulbis and Grigor Dimitrov but both are set to meet each other in the Round before they potentially play Berdych which makes it that much more difficult picking the player to come through the section.

When you look at the draw, you would initially look at the Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal Final as being the most likely match a week on Sunday, but the top half of the draw is perhaps the more insecure of the two.

He might not be in the greatest of form to open 2014, but it has taken some special tennis to beat Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open and Dubai and I think he is the best choice to win the event, even as the favourite.

However, he has only won 1 of the last 4 Indian Wells tournaments, but has interestingly been beaten by the Finalist in the other 3 events including surprise losses to Juan Martin Del Potro and John Isner in the Semi Finals in the last two years. The year before Djokovic won the title, he was beaten by Ivan Ljubicic who won the event so I think a small interest on Marin Cilic could be worth risking.

The Croatian has been in strong form and will be going for his fourth Final in a row thanks to an improved serve. If he beats Djokovic in the Fourth Round, Cilic will have the confidence to at least make the Final here and he could be the latest big priced player to do that in the last few years.

MY PICKS: Na Li @ 6.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)

Caroline Wozniacki @ 67.00 Paddy Power (0.5 Units E/W)
Novak Djokovic @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Marin Cilic @ 81.00 Boyle Sports (0.5 Units E/W)

Weekly Picks: 14-6, + 17.52 Units (39 Units Staked, + 44.92% Yield)

Season 2014: + 27.44 Units (364 Units Staked, + 7.54% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (January 5-12)

It wasn't the best start to the season for the picks after at least three players missed their chance to earn the cover of the spread when serving for the match. That was only compounded by Roger Federer failing to win the Final at Brisbane in a three set loss to local favourite Lleyton Hewitt.

This will we have three events taking place across the two Tours, but remember the Australian Open begins next week so there could be some strange results as players perhaps focus ahead to that tournament. It also makes the favourites for the tournaments all look vulnerable as they may just want to get a couple of matches under their belt ahead of the Grand Slam.

With that in mind, I have only made the one outright pick this week from the ATP tournament in Auckland and will make picks from the matches when, and only if, there are some I like as the week goes forward.

ATP Auckland
The tournament prior to the Australian Open has been dominated by the Number 1 seed, David Ferrer, who is looking to pick up the title for a fourth year in a row. The layers are confident in his chances to do that and the draw hasn't been a bad one for the Spaniard, but I have a few doubts about Ferrer this year and I have a feeling he will be taking a step back.

The problem for Ferrer is that he looks like his grinding style of play is finally catching up with him and being forced to work so hard to hold on to serve is a tough mental game to do time after time.

Ferrer can't complain about the draw with the seeded players in his section all having doubts surrounding their chances to win through to the Final. Robin Haase is extremely inconsistent, Kevin Anderson was forced out of Brisbane with a virus and could be under-cooked, while Gael Monfils reached the Final in Doha last week and will have to put a lot of travelling in his legs to play in New Zealand, while already perhaps looking ahead to the Australian Open.

So while Ferrer is the most likely player to come out of the top half of the draw, especially with his record on these courts, I can't back him with confidence after his own defeat to Daniel Brands last week in Doha. He looks too short in the market and I will instead look at the bottom half of the draw for a potential winner.

To that end, I am going to have a small interest in Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the Final, at the least, for the second year in succession. The German reached the Semi Final in 2012 and is also a former winner of the event in 2008 and he could build up some momentum through the draw this week.

Kohlschreiber can't be disappointed with the opening two matches he is likely to face here in Auckland, while he is seeded to meet John Isner in the Quarter Final. However, Kohlschreiber has beaten Isner in each of the last two matches they have played, while the big American was also forced out of the Hopman Cup with an ankle injury and may not be focused here with the Australian Open in mind.

A potential Semi Final against either Benoit Paire or Tommy Haas is a tough match for Kohlschreiber, especially the former of those players, but he could have enough confidence at this stage to get back to the Final. Kohlschreiber has lost his last 4 matches against his likely opponent in any Final, David Ferrer, but I still think an each-way interest on him is worth it at the 10.00 being offered by Ladbrokes.

That price has actually come in since a popular website in the United Kingdom also picked Kohlschreiber in Auckland this week, but it is still decent enough to have an interest.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 10.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)

Weekly Picks: 8-9, - 1.47 Units (31 Units Staked, - 4.74% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2014: - 4.47 Units (34 Units Staked, - 13.15% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks Cincinnati 2013 (August 12-18)

Back to back Masters tournaments means the Tour is moving from Canada into the United States and the annual stop in Cincinnati as the roads start leading to the US Open.

This is the last time we will see some of the best names on both Tours before Flushing Meadows as most of them will take a week off after this tournament to get their preparations completed for the final Grand Slam of the season. The results in Canada last week were surprising at times, but Cincinnati generally has a much more settled feel to it as players are just a little more focused, especially the biggest names, as they look to take some momentum in the important month ahead.


It was the second poor week when it came to the tennis picks in a row last time out as I couldn't avoid the shocks that had taken place all week in Canada. The biggest disappointment was Novak Djokovic's defeat to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final- I have no idea where his double fault issues came from in that match as that cost him the first set in a match where Nadal completely overplayed from where I had estimated his game.

However, the errors made by Djokovic at a lot of crucial times, plus a poorer return of serve than I am used to has to be a a factor. Even with that in mind, there is some real pressure being placed on Djokovic's shoulders going into the final Grand Slam of the season as there is a slight, very slight, suggestion that he is struggling to come through in big matches at the moment.

Losing to Nadal at the French Open and Andy Murray at Wimbledon are not terrible losses in the grand scheme of things, but I just feel the World Number 1 needs to win one of those matches sooner rather than later just to keep himself in a good place mentally.


Men's Tournament
It is quite weird to see that only two active players have won the Masters tournament in Cincinnati and both Roger Federer and Andy Murray would like to have a big week under their belt ahead of the US Open and I do think one of them will add their name to the winner's list once again.

Of the two, it is Andy Murray who I think can come out of the bottom half of the draw and perhaps pick up the title next Sunday and once again underline why he is set as the favourite to win the title for the second time in a row at Flushing Meadows.

The draw this week is slightly more comfortable for Murray, although he will likely have to get some revenge on Ernests Gulbis in the Second Round after being beaten by the talented Latvian last week in Montreal. If the World Number 2 can get past Gulbis, I would guess Murray would be a strong favourite over Fabio Fognini and Tomas Berdych who he could face in the next two Rounds.

Both Fognini and Berdych have to overcome some question marks as to how competitive they can be on the hard courts against the very best players on the Tour. Berdych is a very dangerous player of the two, but he needs to serve a lot better than he has been recently and the match up could certainly pose some problems for him as Murray can extract errors from his game.

There are some big names that could potentially face Murray in the Semi Final with the likes of Roger Federer, Tommy Haas and Rafael Nadal in the third quarter of the draw, but I have doubts about all three players this week.

Federer is coming in off a couple of really poor showings on the clay courts and is using a new racquet, while I don't know how much his back issue is giving him trouble at the moment. Tommy Haas retired last week in Montreal, while Rafael Nadal went deep in Montreal and back to back Masters events on the hard courts is not something his body is going to be used to since he returned from injury.

Andy Murray does look like a player that is very happy with where he is with his game, even after the early exit last week, and I do think he can go all the way this week.


However, I also want to keep Novak Djokovic in my staking plan as he looks to make history by becoming the first player to win all of the Masters tournaments on the calendar. He came close to doing that last season when he was beaten in the Final here by Roger Federer and I am not so concerned that the World Number 1 had a long week in Montreal as he has shown he is capable of putting back back tournaments together on the hard courts.

He really couldn't have asked for a much better draw through to the Semi Final and I don't foresee too many problems for Djokovic up to that point. The likes of Vasek Pospisil and Milos Raonic had a strong week in their home Masters last week, but tiredness and a couple of tough draws could put pay to their chances. If Richard Gasquet gets to the Quarter Final, I would expect Djokovic to knock him out fairly comfortably too.

A potential Semi Final against David Ferrer, Jerzy Janowicz or Juan Martin Del Potro could certainly cause some problems for Djokovic, although again I would suggest there are enough doubts to think the World Number 1 is not able to come through.

Janowicz and Del Potro haven't been at full strength in the last week and while both can keep themselves in a match with their serve, Djokovic is one of the best returners of all time and will certainly make enough balls to force both players to earn a win. Del Potro has been struggling with a back injury and he may already have one eye on getting to full fitness before the US Open, and David Ferrer has a bad match up against Djokovic.

The draw has certainly been kind to Djokovic this week so I have to keep him on board again.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andy Murray @ 4.50 Bet 365 (1 Unit)


Tennis Outright Picks (August 5-11): 0-2, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (August 5-11): 12-12, - 3.88 Units (45 Units Staked, - 8.62% Yield)

Season 2013: + 13.10 Units (1030.5 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (August 5-11)

It was one of the strangest weeks I have had on the Tour this week as so many picks got down to the wire and ended up on the wrong side. While the results turned out to be terrible, luck was clearly not on my side this last week as highlighted by the pick I made for the Final in Kitzbuhel.

I had picked Juan Monaco in the outright market and decided to pick Marcel Granollers with a 2.5 game head start for the Final as I felt the Spaniard could at least keep things close. What happened from there summed up the bad fortune of the week as Monaco won the first set with a bagel before Granollers came back to win 76, 64 and ensuring this was one of the rare moments where the favourite covers the spread but loses the match meaning both picks were losers... Incredible(!)

Once again, so often I had players in strong positions this week, but they couldn't complete the job, while some picks put themselves behind the black ball before coming back to win a closer match than they should have.

You always need a little bit of luck to get ahead when making regular picks, but when it has deserted you in the fashion it did for me over the last seven days, it can only lead to frustration. It should have been a much stronger week than it has turned out to be and a huge loss, the worst of the season, is vastly disappointing considering how the matches panned out.


This week the big tournaments on the ATP and WTA Tour have moved on to Toronto and Montreal where the Masters/Premier Events take place ahead of the US Open. Both tournaments will be missing one of the big names as both Roger Federer and Maria Sharapova have pulled out ahead of the event.

The absence of Roger Federer is a strange call from the 17 time Grand Slam winner and it makes me question the motivation for playing in Hamburg and Gstaad in July. He has been complaining of a back issue since the loss to Daniel Brands in Switzerland, although the suggestion is that Federer will return for the defence of his title in Cincinnati.

Either way, both Federer and Sharapova will want to get some tennis in ahead of the US Open which begins on August 26 although it would be a real surprise if the former is able to put together seven strong matches to win the final Grand Slam of the season.


I am not making a pick from the WTA tournament in Toronto this week as the draw looks very much in favour of the favourite Serena Williams, but the layers are taking no chances by offering the American at odds on. This is her first tournament back on the hard courts so there is a chance, albeit an extremely small one, that she is surprised early.

Even picking someone from the other half looks tricky as I feel Victoria Azarenka is the player to beat beside Williams this week. However, she has played a long week in Carlsbad and has to travel from Southern California to Canada and has been placed in a quarter where the likes of Sam Stosur, Petra Kvitova and Jelena Jankovic all reside.

ATP Montreal
The big names are back in action on the ATP Tour this week as we begin preparation for the US Open and the good news is that Rafael Nadal will also be involved in Montreal after missing seven months of the Tour last season following a surprising defeat at Wimbledon in June. I am ignoring the manner of his defeat at Wimbledon this season as he had performed well on his return and he also has one hard court title to his name this season when winning at Indian Wells.

I am not convinced that Nadal will be able to grab his second hard court title of the season here, even as a winner on this court in 2005, as there are a couple of really dangerous players in his section that can spring a surprise if the Spaniard is not confident in what he can bring to the table. The likes of Jerzy Janowicz and Tommy Haas have the big games to disrupt Nadal and keep the match off his racquet if they get hot, although Nadal is capable of reaching the Semi Final here as long as he is feeling healthy.

That is where I would favour the World Number 1 and top seeded Novak Djokovic to be waiting for him and I expect the Serb to earn a measure of revenge for his French Open Semi Final defeat earlier this season.

Djokovic has won this tournament in back to back years, including the last time it was played in Montreal, and he has been given a draw that he probably couldn't have hand-picked any better. He does have a potentially awkward first match against the winner of Bernard Tomic and Florian Mayer, but the Serb will be able to play himself into the tournament and I expect he would be too strong for Nadal in a potential Semi Final.

The World Number 1 has won their last five meetings on surfaces that aren't clay courts, including three on the hard courts, and I would expect Djokovic to win that battle if it comes to fruition.


We will also see the return of current US Open and Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray to a Masters tournament he has won in the two years preceding Djokovic's run, but I don't think the British player will be too happy with the draw he has received.

Just to get to the Semi Final, there is every chance that Murray will have to beat Grigor Dimitrov, Ernests Gulbis and Washington Champion Juan Martin Del Potro and there is no telling how Murray is feeling after his exploits at Wimbledon. While he will know how to deal with the exposure that comes after winning a Grand Slam, Wimbledon held a different pressure after the long period without a British Champion and it wouldn't surprise me if he is a little under-cooked here this week and perhaps surprised early.

Del Potro does look a little short in the market as far as I am concerned, especially with a long week under his belt in a winning effort in Washington and he has yet to surpass the Second Round since reaching the Final in 2009. In fact, outside of that one appearance in the Final, Del Potro has a 1-3 record in three other visits to Canada to play this Masters.

With the big two both having a few question marks surrounding their ability to perform this week, we could see a surprise Finalist come out of the bottom half of the draw... Well a surprise Finalist to the layers.

David Ferrer won his first Masters tournament in Paris at the end of last season and he has reached his first Grand Slam Final this season, although there have been a few signs that he could be slowing down a touch. However, he comes into the week at his highest Ranking of Number 3 and he also is very comfortable on the North American hard courts as proved by a Semi Final appearance at the US Open as well as a Runner Up finish in Miami in March.

He is in a nice little section of the draw and I expect him to reach the Quarter Final where his first test will likely be either Tomas Berdych or John Isner. The latter has reached back to back Finals in Atlanta and Washington, but Ferrer has a strong head to head against both of those players, but I do have a concern that Ferrer has never won back to back matches at the Canadian Masters.

If he can do that this week he could be tough to stop and he looks in a section where he could make a mockery of the prices being offered by the layers.


MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.63 Bet Fred (3 Units)
David Ferrer @ 26.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)

Tennis Outright Picks (July 29-August 4): 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Tennis Daily Picks (July 29-August 4): 13-18, - 10.64 Units (60 Units Staked, - 17.73% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.98 Units (980.5 Units Staked, + 2.24% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units