The tennis Finals in Montpellier, Zagreb and Quito are all set for this Sunday as the next stops in Rotterdam, Sao Paulo and Memphis get set to begin on Monday. It was a pretty disappointing week for the picks with a couple of games here and there making, or breaking in this case, what would have been a decent week otherwise.
The fact that both outright picks also disappointed hasn't helped matters but it is the nature of a long tennis season that you are going to have to take the rough with the smooth when it comes to winning and losing weeks. Obviously the idea is to limit the losing weeks and maximise the winning ones, but you can't always get what you want and I just have to try and do my best in picking the right winners.
Jerzy Janowicz + 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: These two players had a tight Semi Final twelve months ago and both are in decent form heading into the Final of the event in Montpellier. Richard Gasquet has produced the better performances of the two in my opinion, but Jerzy Janowicz is feeling the confidence surging through him after overcoming a difficult First Round match against Dustin Brown.
In that match, Janowicz had to fend of match points before moving through, but he is still struggling with the consistency to put together a full match of the standard he wants. Aside from the win over Gilles Simon, Janowicz hasn't been as dominant behind serve as he would have liked, but Richard Gasquet will have to be more aggressive than he has shown at times if he is to win this match easily and cover this number of games.
I do think Gasquet is the more likely winner with the way he has been playing this week and he has the ability to block back returns and hope Janowicz shoots himself in the foot. However, the aggression of the Polish player has unsettled Gasquet in the past and there is every chance he can take at least a set.
If Janowicz can put together a couple of really solid return games and take the break points he creates, this should be a competitive Final which will make the 3.5 games look a big head-start.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: Two players who have made very good starts to their 2015 seasons will be looking to underline the positives by taking home a title when they meet on Sunday in Zagreb. Out of the two players, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has come through more comfortably than Andreas Seppi, but the Italian has never previously been beaten by Garcia-Lopez.
Both players have similarities in that they don't have dominant serves and look to battle hard on the court for every point they will win. Unlike a lot of matches on the indoor hard courts, I think this one will feature a few breaks of serve for both men, especially as the conditions in Zagreb have perhaps been slower relatively with other other indoor hard courts.
I think it would also be fair to say that Garcia-Lopez has come through the more difficult draw to reach the Final, but Seppi feels he had his best performance of the week in the Semi Final win over Marcel Granollers.
There will be a few really testing rallies for both players and the winner of the majority of those is going to hold the edge- I give that to Andreas Seppi over their performances on the season and his head to head dominance over Garcia-Lopez and I like the Italian to come through 75, 64.
MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.48 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.38% Yield)
Showing posts with label Zagreb Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zagreb Picks. Show all posts
Sunday, 8 February 2015
Saturday, 7 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 7th)
After both outright picks went out earlier in the week, it looks like being a tough one to follow the Australian Open as we reach the Semi Finals in Montpellier, Quito and Zagreb.
The draw for the tournament in Rotterdam next week has already been made as some of the bigger names return to the Tour, but the events in Sao Paolo and Memphis have yet to set their line up. The WTA Tour will also be returning next week following Fed Cup action and there is a big tournament in Antwerp that will also be played.
Jerzy Janowicz - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: Jerzy Janowicz is scheduled to go to Rotterdam next week, but he isn't going to have to play any qualifiers and will be looking to back up what he considers to be his best performance of the season so far. I'd go a little further and say it is the best Janowicz has played for a lot longer than that as he dismissed Gilles Simon in the Quarter Final and the big Polish player looks like someone who will thrive on the confidence he has picked up.
That could be bad news for Joao Sousa despite his own strong run to the Semi Final, especially as Sousa has lost his two previous matches against Janowicz. The match they played at Winston-Salem last season was actually a close one decided on a final set tie-breaker, but Janowicz was serving very well in his win over Simon and bringing that into this Semi Final will make it tough for Sousa to overcome.
Out of the two players, Sousa is going to have to work a lot harder to hold onto serve and that pressure may eventually be part of the reason Janowicz is able to come through. It isn't just the power that makes Janowicz so dangerous, but the fact he has a lot of touch and feel which makes drop shots and volleys a big part of his game.
That can mean a lot of silly errors coming out of his racquet, but Janowicz' confidence has to be in a good place and he may work through to produce a 62, 76 win in this one.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: Andreas Seppi had a chance to serve for the match against Ricardas Berankis in the Quarter Final, but failure to do that meant he had to come through a third set tie-breaker to reach the Semi Final. The Italian's failure to serve it out did mean my pick was lost yesterday, but I am going to back Seppi to recover and beat Marcel Granollers in this Semi Final.
Both players have come through some tough moments to reach this stage of the tournament, although I think Seppi's has been more down to his own making. Seppi should have beaten James Ward and Berankis in better fashion than he did, while Granollers perhaps rode his luck to come through against Ivan Dodig and Igor Sijsling.
That mental pressure is harder to recover from in my opinion, even if you think you are playing with 'house money' in a tournament you should have been knocked out from. Fatigue is a bigger concern for Granollers who is going to have to work through some long rallies to win this match and I think Seppi will be in better physical shape if this goes into the later stages of the match.
Matches between these players have been tight affairs in the past with two of the last three going the distance and both won by Granollers in that case. However, I think the physical fitness will be on the side of Seppi and he will come through with a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 3.48 Units (22 Units Staked, - 15.82% Yield)
The draw for the tournament in Rotterdam next week has already been made as some of the bigger names return to the Tour, but the events in Sao Paolo and Memphis have yet to set their line up. The WTA Tour will also be returning next week following Fed Cup action and there is a big tournament in Antwerp that will also be played.
Jerzy Janowicz - 3.5 games v Joao Sousa: Jerzy Janowicz is scheduled to go to Rotterdam next week, but he isn't going to have to play any qualifiers and will be looking to back up what he considers to be his best performance of the season so far. I'd go a little further and say it is the best Janowicz has played for a lot longer than that as he dismissed Gilles Simon in the Quarter Final and the big Polish player looks like someone who will thrive on the confidence he has picked up.
That could be bad news for Joao Sousa despite his own strong run to the Semi Final, especially as Sousa has lost his two previous matches against Janowicz. The match they played at Winston-Salem last season was actually a close one decided on a final set tie-breaker, but Janowicz was serving very well in his win over Simon and bringing that into this Semi Final will make it tough for Sousa to overcome.
Out of the two players, Sousa is going to have to work a lot harder to hold onto serve and that pressure may eventually be part of the reason Janowicz is able to come through. It isn't just the power that makes Janowicz so dangerous, but the fact he has a lot of touch and feel which makes drop shots and volleys a big part of his game.
That can mean a lot of silly errors coming out of his racquet, but Janowicz' confidence has to be in a good place and he may work through to produce a 62, 76 win in this one.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: Andreas Seppi had a chance to serve for the match against Ricardas Berankis in the Quarter Final, but failure to do that meant he had to come through a third set tie-breaker to reach the Semi Final. The Italian's failure to serve it out did mean my pick was lost yesterday, but I am going to back Seppi to recover and beat Marcel Granollers in this Semi Final.
Both players have come through some tough moments to reach this stage of the tournament, although I think Seppi's has been more down to his own making. Seppi should have beaten James Ward and Berankis in better fashion than he did, while Granollers perhaps rode his luck to come through against Ivan Dodig and Igor Sijsling.
That mental pressure is harder to recover from in my opinion, even if you think you are playing with 'house money' in a tournament you should have been knocked out from. Fatigue is a bigger concern for Granollers who is going to have to work through some long rallies to win this match and I think Seppi will be in better physical shape if this goes into the later stages of the match.
Matches between these players have been tight affairs in the past with two of the last three going the distance and both won by Granollers in that case. However, I think the physical fitness will be on the side of Seppi and he will come through with a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jerzy Janowicz - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 3.48 Units (22 Units Staked, - 15.82% Yield)
Friday, 6 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 6th)
I can only describe it as a frustrating Thursday afternoon with one pick coming in but two losing from what looked like very strong positions. Gilles Muller won the first set 63 and was 42 up in the second set tie-break and looked set to move through to the Quarter Finals, but fell apart from that position and was eventually beaten in the third set.
Ivan Dodig seemed to be creating break point after break point from the end of the first set through to the middle of the second set- unfortunately he couldn't win the first set and then made far too many errors in the decider and was knocked out of the event.
Fernando Verdasco is completing his match against Gerald Melzer in the early hours of the morning so hopefully he can at least split the picks for Thursday.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: Denis Istomin was the beneficiary of one of the most controversial retirements you are likely to see through the 2015 season- Malek Jaziri pulled out after taking the first set because the winner was due to play Dudi Sela and the Tunisian has previous in trying to avoid meeting an Israeli player on the Tour.
That is pretty disgusting that sport can't overcome prejudices, but Istomin has taken advantage by moving through to the Quarter Final against home hope Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has enjoyed playing in Montpellier in the past and he was an easy winner in the Second Round.
After a down 2014, Gasquet has opened 2015 with some renewed confidence that comes from feeling a lot better with the back which had been giving him some problems. He should get the better of the rallies in this one unless Istomin brings his absolute best to the court, but that has been a rare sight in recent months.
Gasquet has dominated the head to head and beat Istomin three times last year despite not being at his best. I would imagine he can secure a 63, 76 kind of win in this one.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: One of my reasons that I wasn't interested in backing Gael Monfils to defend his title in Montpellier is the slow start he has made to the 2015 season, but I do think the Frenchman has too much talent and athleticism for Steve Darcis.
Darcis will always be remembered for his victory over Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon a few seasons ago, but that really hasn't been backed up by him and the majority of his success has been in the levels below the main ATP Tour.
It has been a good week for Darcis who has come through qualifiers to reach this Quarter Final, but he hasn't had to beat someone as good as Monfils and I just think the frustration of trying to hit through Monfils is too much. There will be times Darcis has success doing that, but the mental pressure of having to hit one more shot will likely eventually break him in my opinion.
After a tight first set, I expect an early break to set Monfils on his way and to move through to the Semi Final with a 64, 63 win behind him.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: Ricardas Berankis had to dig deep to knock out one of the Seeds in the draw, but he has to go back to well to try and beat Andreas Seppi in the Quarter Final. Seppi was largely disappointed with his performance against James Ward in the Second Round, but did get through and backed up his strong showing at the Australian Open.
I'd expect Seppi will be able to get more out of his return of serve than Muller did in the last two sets of his match against Berankis and that should give him a good chance of winning this match. The Italian will be looking for more out of his serve though, especially if he wants to make this an easier day in the office than he had on Thursday.
There will be some long rallies in this one and it might even come down to which of these players have recovered the best from their efforts on Thursday. At least Seppi got a few more hours to get his recovery going and I think his added experience comes through.
This is the time of the season when Seppi has to take advantage of his good form to try and move up the Rankings and earn 'easier' draws as the Tour moves forward. As well as Berankis did to come back and beat Muller, he could easily have been out of the tournament in the second set tie-break and I look for Seppi to come through 64, 67, 64.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.54 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.14% Yield)
Ivan Dodig seemed to be creating break point after break point from the end of the first set through to the middle of the second set- unfortunately he couldn't win the first set and then made far too many errors in the decider and was knocked out of the event.
Fernando Verdasco is completing his match against Gerald Melzer in the early hours of the morning so hopefully he can at least split the picks for Thursday.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: Denis Istomin was the beneficiary of one of the most controversial retirements you are likely to see through the 2015 season- Malek Jaziri pulled out after taking the first set because the winner was due to play Dudi Sela and the Tunisian has previous in trying to avoid meeting an Israeli player on the Tour.
That is pretty disgusting that sport can't overcome prejudices, but Istomin has taken advantage by moving through to the Quarter Final against home hope Richard Gasquet. The Frenchman has enjoyed playing in Montpellier in the past and he was an easy winner in the Second Round.
After a down 2014, Gasquet has opened 2015 with some renewed confidence that comes from feeling a lot better with the back which had been giving him some problems. He should get the better of the rallies in this one unless Istomin brings his absolute best to the court, but that has been a rare sight in recent months.
Gasquet has dominated the head to head and beat Istomin three times last year despite not being at his best. I would imagine he can secure a 63, 76 kind of win in this one.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Steve Darcis: One of my reasons that I wasn't interested in backing Gael Monfils to defend his title in Montpellier is the slow start he has made to the 2015 season, but I do think the Frenchman has too much talent and athleticism for Steve Darcis.
Darcis will always be remembered for his victory over Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon a few seasons ago, but that really hasn't been backed up by him and the majority of his success has been in the levels below the main ATP Tour.
It has been a good week for Darcis who has come through qualifiers to reach this Quarter Final, but he hasn't had to beat someone as good as Monfils and I just think the frustration of trying to hit through Monfils is too much. There will be times Darcis has success doing that, but the mental pressure of having to hit one more shot will likely eventually break him in my opinion.
After a tight first set, I expect an early break to set Monfils on his way and to move through to the Semi Final with a 64, 63 win behind him.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: Ricardas Berankis had to dig deep to knock out one of the Seeds in the draw, but he has to go back to well to try and beat Andreas Seppi in the Quarter Final. Seppi was largely disappointed with his performance against James Ward in the Second Round, but did get through and backed up his strong showing at the Australian Open.
I'd expect Seppi will be able to get more out of his return of serve than Muller did in the last two sets of his match against Berankis and that should give him a good chance of winning this match. The Italian will be looking for more out of his serve though, especially if he wants to make this an easier day in the office than he had on Thursday.
There will be some long rallies in this one and it might even come down to which of these players have recovered the best from their efforts on Thursday. At least Seppi got a few more hours to get his recovery going and I think his added experience comes through.
This is the time of the season when Seppi has to take advantage of his good form to try and move up the Rankings and earn 'easier' draws as the Tour moves forward. As well as Berankis did to come back and beat Muller, he could easily have been out of the tournament in the second set tie-break and I look for Seppi to come through 64, 67, 64.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-4, - 2.54 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.14% Yield)
Thursday, 5 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 5th)
It was another mixed day of results with the picks going 1-1 for the second day in a row, but I was a little disappointed in myself for scaring off of a couple of other players. I quite liked Jerzy Janowicz to see off Benoit Paire and felt Ivan Dodig would be too strong for Mate Delic, but perhaps overthought things there and I do think I missed a couple of matches I shouldn't have.
That can happen though and there was better news when considering the top Seed in Zagreb, Ivo Karlovic, was knocked out of the tournament. He was also the favourite to win the event prior to the start of the matches here and will have shortened the price on both Victor Troicki and Ivan Dodig who I had backed in the outright markets.
However, this is still very early in the week in determining who will be playing for the title on Sunday and both Troicki and Dodig will have to win three matches on consecutive days if they are to pick up the trophy.
Victor Troicki - 4.5 games v Go Soeda: Go Soeda has been a player that has produced his best tennis on the Challenger circuit, but has been unable to take that onto the main Tour events for much of his career. There is little doubt that he doesn't quite have the power and consistency to keep up with the best players in the world, while Soeda's serve is not a big weapon and is something that opponents will look to attack.
He can put together some solid tennis which will help Soeda win some games, but I can see Victor Troicki keeping him under pressure in this one with clear chances to get a lot of balls back in play.
Troicki will have to be more efficient with the chances he does create in this match after missing far too many break point opportunities in his First Round win a couple of days ago, but the forcing of break points will be a big key to this match.
As long as the Serbian player doesn't push too hard in this one, he should have more chances to break serve than Soeda and I think that will help him produce a clearer win than the final set tie-break he had to win in the First Round. A 63, 64 win for Troicki wouldn't be a surprise in this one.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: I was hoping this was perhaps a game smaller of a spread than it actually is, but I still believe Gilles Muller has enough about him to see off Ricardas Berankis.
Muller should enjoy the indoor hard court conditions if he brings his serving from the Australian Open and I think that scoreboard pressure will eventually produce cracks in the Berankis game. There is no doubt that Berankis has a lot of talent and he brings some of that to the court, but I think he still struggles to know exactly what to do with that talent.
It is one thing being able to produce every shot on the court, but it is completely another to hit the right shot at the right time in a match environment. That is where Berankis can struggle at times, while his serve isn't the biggest shot and will give Muller a chance to attack it.
If Muller is serving well, I can see Berankis keeping up for a while but throwing in a sloppy service game in each set and allowing the Number 4 Seed to progress with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Ivan Dodig - 3.5 games v Marcel Granollers: Being on his home courts should be an advantage for Ivan Dodig who can win this match as long as he puts a solid game together. Marcel Granollers did beat Jurgen Melzer in his first match, but the Austrian hasn't been feeling great in recent days and I think the Spaniard was fortunate with the draw he had been given.
Granollers hasn't had the best of endings in the 2014 season and he didn't have a great start to the beginning of the 2015 season and I think playing on the indoor hard courts should favour Dodig's game as a previous winner here.
The pressure will be put on Granollers to do more than just chip returns back into play as Dodig will get forward at every opportunity to volley away winners. He is one of the better Doubles players on the Tour and their experiences against each other have mainly come on that Tour.
However, Dodig did beat Granollers fairly comfortably in their one previous match here and I think the extra-aggrestion that the Croatian will play with ends up producing a win for him. The Granollers serve can be erratic to say the least and I think Dodig will have opportunities to break serve if he can get on top of the second serve. That may end up producing a 76, 63 win for Dodig and a place in the Quarter Final.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Gerald Melzer: I have to admit that Fernando Verdasco isn't always the most trustworthy player to back on the Tour, especially outside of the Grand Slam events, but he should still be too good for Gerald Melzer. Both are left-handers so no one should have an advantage from the angles that southpaws can produce on the court, but it is Verdasco who is the more talented player and that should be shown on the court.
The conditions in Quito does mean the ball is flying through the air and the fact that this is Verdasco's first match here might have a negative impact on his game. On the other hand, Melzer has already won a match here, but generally competes on a much lower level than the World Number 32.
Verdasco still gets plenty out of his groundstrokes and might just begin to dominate this match once he gets a feel for the conditions he is seeing. He still has a decent first serve and as long as he isn't taking this tournament easy and once where the appearance fee is more important than winning a title, I expect Verdasco to be fully concentrate on the match.
My concern is that Verdasco throws in a sloppy set which makes this a lot of games to cover, but I think his talent difference pays off in an eventual 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Victor Troicki - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivan Dodig - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.74 Units (8 Units Staked, - 9.25% Yield)
That can happen though and there was better news when considering the top Seed in Zagreb, Ivo Karlovic, was knocked out of the tournament. He was also the favourite to win the event prior to the start of the matches here and will have shortened the price on both Victor Troicki and Ivan Dodig who I had backed in the outright markets.
However, this is still very early in the week in determining who will be playing for the title on Sunday and both Troicki and Dodig will have to win three matches on consecutive days if they are to pick up the trophy.
Victor Troicki - 4.5 games v Go Soeda: Go Soeda has been a player that has produced his best tennis on the Challenger circuit, but has been unable to take that onto the main Tour events for much of his career. There is little doubt that he doesn't quite have the power and consistency to keep up with the best players in the world, while Soeda's serve is not a big weapon and is something that opponents will look to attack.
He can put together some solid tennis which will help Soeda win some games, but I can see Victor Troicki keeping him under pressure in this one with clear chances to get a lot of balls back in play.
Troicki will have to be more efficient with the chances he does create in this match after missing far too many break point opportunities in his First Round win a couple of days ago, but the forcing of break points will be a big key to this match.
As long as the Serbian player doesn't push too hard in this one, he should have more chances to break serve than Soeda and I think that will help him produce a clearer win than the final set tie-break he had to win in the First Round. A 63, 64 win for Troicki wouldn't be a surprise in this one.
Gilles Muller - 3.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: I was hoping this was perhaps a game smaller of a spread than it actually is, but I still believe Gilles Muller has enough about him to see off Ricardas Berankis.
Muller should enjoy the indoor hard court conditions if he brings his serving from the Australian Open and I think that scoreboard pressure will eventually produce cracks in the Berankis game. There is no doubt that Berankis has a lot of talent and he brings some of that to the court, but I think he still struggles to know exactly what to do with that talent.
It is one thing being able to produce every shot on the court, but it is completely another to hit the right shot at the right time in a match environment. That is where Berankis can struggle at times, while his serve isn't the biggest shot and will give Muller a chance to attack it.
If Muller is serving well, I can see Berankis keeping up for a while but throwing in a sloppy service game in each set and allowing the Number 4 Seed to progress with a 64, 64 win behind him.
Ivan Dodig - 3.5 games v Marcel Granollers: Being on his home courts should be an advantage for Ivan Dodig who can win this match as long as he puts a solid game together. Marcel Granollers did beat Jurgen Melzer in his first match, but the Austrian hasn't been feeling great in recent days and I think the Spaniard was fortunate with the draw he had been given.
Granollers hasn't had the best of endings in the 2014 season and he didn't have a great start to the beginning of the 2015 season and I think playing on the indoor hard courts should favour Dodig's game as a previous winner here.
The pressure will be put on Granollers to do more than just chip returns back into play as Dodig will get forward at every opportunity to volley away winners. He is one of the better Doubles players on the Tour and their experiences against each other have mainly come on that Tour.
However, Dodig did beat Granollers fairly comfortably in their one previous match here and I think the extra-aggrestion that the Croatian will play with ends up producing a win for him. The Granollers serve can be erratic to say the least and I think Dodig will have opportunities to break serve if he can get on top of the second serve. That may end up producing a 76, 63 win for Dodig and a place in the Quarter Final.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games v Gerald Melzer: I have to admit that Fernando Verdasco isn't always the most trustworthy player to back on the Tour, especially outside of the Grand Slam events, but he should still be too good for Gerald Melzer. Both are left-handers so no one should have an advantage from the angles that southpaws can produce on the court, but it is Verdasco who is the more talented player and that should be shown on the court.
The conditions in Quito does mean the ball is flying through the air and the fact that this is Verdasco's first match here might have a negative impact on his game. On the other hand, Melzer has already won a match here, but generally competes on a much lower level than the World Number 32.
Verdasco still gets plenty out of his groundstrokes and might just begin to dominate this match once he gets a feel for the conditions he is seeing. He still has a decent first serve and as long as he isn't taking this tournament easy and once where the appearance fee is more important than winning a title, I expect Verdasco to be fully concentrate on the match.
My concern is that Verdasco throws in a sloppy set which makes this a lot of games to cover, but I think his talent difference pays off in an eventual 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Victor Troicki - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Muller - 3.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ivan Dodig - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.74 Units (8 Units Staked, - 9.25% Yield)
Tuesday, 3 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 3rd)
There are three ATP tournaments taking place this week and I have got a couple of outright picks, although both of come from the same event in Zagreb. Those picks can be read here.
Any picks from the tournament in Quito will be added once the schedule of play is released.
Marsel Ilhan + 2.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: The opening match on Tuesday in Montpellier is between two players who will hope their serves are going to be magnified by the indoor hard court conditions.
Neither player is one that is going to be challenging for Grand Slam titles, and both are now ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. That makes this match extra important for both Kenny de Schepper and Marsel Ilhan as a couple of wins here may at least give them the chance to avoid having to play qualifiers for main Tour events going forward.
In the early stages of the season, it is de Schepper who has shown the better form of the two, although he is limited as a player. He has a huge serve, but doesn't really back that up that effectively and I do think he looks a short favourite in this one.
Ilhan will have to serve well and play the big points better than he did when these players met on the clay courts of Barcelona last season. It does feel a match that is going to be decided by a tie-breaker in the final set and I think the Turkish player can do enough to stay within these games as he has every chance of winning the match outright.
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: Moving to Zagreb and I like Andreas Seppi to beat Robin Haase in the last match scheduled to be played on the main court at that event.
The Italian showed some good form at the Australian Open where he finally beat Roger Federer, although Seppi might be disappointed that he couldn't convert his opportunities to beat Nick Kyrgios in the Fourth Round. Seppi had match points in that Fourth Round match and I think he will have the confidence to see off Haase in this one.
It is important for Seppi to make the best of the positive form he is showing to try and get back into the top 32 in the World Rankings which means he would be Seeded at future Grand Slam events. His serve can be something of a weakness at times, but he was using that to good effect in Australia and now faces an out of form Haase who is dangerously close to slipping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings.
Haase has been losing a lot of matches since the end of July and has yet to win a match in 2015, while he seems to be a player that can lose focus at times. There is every chance he can throw in a sloppy couple of service games in each set and I just feel Seppi will be too consistent for him.
I'd be expecting Seppi to earn a break more in each set to come through with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Marsel Ilhan + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Any picks from the tournament in Quito will be added once the schedule of play is released.
Marsel Ilhan + 2.5 games v Kenny de Schepper: The opening match on Tuesday in Montpellier is between two players who will hope their serves are going to be magnified by the indoor hard court conditions.
Neither player is one that is going to be challenging for Grand Slam titles, and both are now ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings. That makes this match extra important for both Kenny de Schepper and Marsel Ilhan as a couple of wins here may at least give them the chance to avoid having to play qualifiers for main Tour events going forward.
In the early stages of the season, it is de Schepper who has shown the better form of the two, although he is limited as a player. He has a huge serve, but doesn't really back that up that effectively and I do think he looks a short favourite in this one.
Ilhan will have to serve well and play the big points better than he did when these players met on the clay courts of Barcelona last season. It does feel a match that is going to be decided by a tie-breaker in the final set and I think the Turkish player can do enough to stay within these games as he has every chance of winning the match outright.
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 games v Robin Haase: Moving to Zagreb and I like Andreas Seppi to beat Robin Haase in the last match scheduled to be played on the main court at that event.
The Italian showed some good form at the Australian Open where he finally beat Roger Federer, although Seppi might be disappointed that he couldn't convert his opportunities to beat Nick Kyrgios in the Fourth Round. Seppi had match points in that Fourth Round match and I think he will have the confidence to see off Haase in this one.
It is important for Seppi to make the best of the positive form he is showing to try and get back into the top 32 in the World Rankings which means he would be Seeded at future Grand Slam events. His serve can be something of a weakness at times, but he was using that to good effect in Australia and now faces an out of form Haase who is dangerously close to slipping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings.
Haase has been losing a lot of matches since the end of July and has yet to win a match in 2015, while he seems to be a player that can lose focus at times. There is every chance he can throw in a sloppy couple of service games in each set and I just feel Seppi will be too consistent for him.
I'd be expecting Seppi to earn a break more in each set to come through with a 64, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Marsel Ilhan + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monday, 2 February 2015
Tennis Outright Picks 2015 (February 2-8)
The first Grand Slam of the 2015 season is in the books with the two favourites both succeeding in their aims to win the Singles events that were run at the Australian Open.
Serena Williams looks like she has put down a marker for the season, although all the talk of the her completing a sweep of all the Grand Slam events seems a little premature. Once again there were signs early in the tournament where Serena Williams did look vulnerable and I do think there will be chances for players to perhaps beat her when she is not completely on her game.
Some were also talking about whether Novak Djokovic will be able to win the remaining three Grand Slam events to be played, but that is even more unlikely than Serena Williams doing it. Djokovic played well through the last couple of weeks, but the Australian Open has always been his favourite Slam and there will be big challenges to overcome if he is to go on and win either of the next two Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon.
It is no surprise that the big names are not in action this week after the efforts of playing at the Australian Open, but the Tour doesn't stop and there are stops in Montpellier, Quito and Zagreb on the ATP Tour. The Fed Cup gets underway so there are no main Tour events on the WTA Tour.
The tournament being run in Quito is a new one which takes over from Vina del Mar and is the beginning of the 'Golden Swing' in South America and the first clay events of the season. Plans are always changeable, but Rafael Nadal is expected to play one of the bigger events during this part of the season, while other names like Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will return to action later this month.
The highest Ranked player to take part in the tournaments this week is Number 14 Feliciano Lopez who is taking in the event in Quito, and that also is shown with the big prices being offered in every tournament being played this week.
Without the big names, it is a good chance for someone to add a title to their CV this week and also pick up vital Ranking points that can help see players get into main draws of the bigger events down the line.
I didn't make any picks in the first two weeks of the tennis season after looking at the records over the last few seasons and realising I didn't have a good read of the form of players coming off a relatively long absence.
The off-season means new tactics, perhaps new motivation for players and others are still trying to peak for the Australian Open.
It turned out to be very much the correct decision after a pretty awesome two weeks at the Grand Slam to give the 2015 season a perfect start.
Hopefully February turns out to be another successful month to back up the Australian Open success.
ATP Zagreb
I am concentrating on the tournament being played in Zagreb for my outright picks this week because I feel the two players at the top of the Montpellier draws, Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils, are a little short considering the lack of form they have displayed.
The event in Quito looks wide open considering the top Seed is Feliciano Lopez and his struggles on clay courts, while the other players involved have been inconsistent to say the least.
Zagreb looks a wide open tournament which has been dominated by home players in recent years- 5 of the last 6 winners here have been Croatian, although Marin Cilic is not fit enough to return to the Tour and try and win here for the third time in a row.
Ivo Karlovic leads the way as the Number 1 Seed and I can imagine that he might have a few supporters this week, but he hasn't been beyond the Quarter Final in Zagreb before. He has also been given a pretty tough draw with a potential Second Round match against Marcos Baghdatis in the offing and Mikhail Youzhny, a former Champion here, a potential Quarter Final opponent.
That might open the door for someone like Victor Troicki to breakthrough in the top half of the draw and he has plenty of supporters this week which has seen him backed down to joint-favourite to win the event.
Troicki has returned with new motivation from his ban and he already has one title this season as be bids to move back up the Rankings. while the draw looks a good one for him. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is a tough potential Quarter Final opponent, but you would think the indoor hard court conditions would favour Troicki in that potential match up and he is worth backing this week.
However, I also want to back Ivan Dodig from the bottom half of the draw as a former winner of this event and with the trend that has favoured a Croatian winner in Zagreb. Dodig has a Quarter Final under his belt this season and he did push Kei Nishikori, while I expect the indoor hard court will favour the booming serve and aggressive play that Dodig likes to demonstrate.
He has reached the Quarter Final in three consecutive appearances in Zagreb since winning the event, but a defeat to eventual Champion Marin Cilic last season isn't a disappointing result. Dodig won't have a lot to fear in the bottom half of the draw until the Semi Final stage at least and can keep up the proud record the Croatian players have in front of their own fans.
As a former winner here, I think Dodig looks a pretty big price to earn a title again and make a positive move up the Rankings from his current position of 85th.
MY PICKS: Victor Troicki @ 6.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)
Ivan Dodig @ 13.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)
Australian Open Daily Picks Final: 36-23, + 29.35 Units (111 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
Australian Open Outright Picks Final: 1-3, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20 % Yield)
Season 2015: + 27.35 Units (121 Units Staked, + 22.60% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Serena Williams looks like she has put down a marker for the season, although all the talk of the her completing a sweep of all the Grand Slam events seems a little premature. Once again there were signs early in the tournament where Serena Williams did look vulnerable and I do think there will be chances for players to perhaps beat her when she is not completely on her game.
Some were also talking about whether Novak Djokovic will be able to win the remaining three Grand Slam events to be played, but that is even more unlikely than Serena Williams doing it. Djokovic played well through the last couple of weeks, but the Australian Open has always been his favourite Slam and there will be big challenges to overcome if he is to go on and win either of the next two Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon.
It is no surprise that the big names are not in action this week after the efforts of playing at the Australian Open, but the Tour doesn't stop and there are stops in Montpellier, Quito and Zagreb on the ATP Tour. The Fed Cup gets underway so there are no main Tour events on the WTA Tour.
The tournament being run in Quito is a new one which takes over from Vina del Mar and is the beginning of the 'Golden Swing' in South America and the first clay events of the season. Plans are always changeable, but Rafael Nadal is expected to play one of the bigger events during this part of the season, while other names like Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will return to action later this month.
The highest Ranked player to take part in the tournaments this week is Number 14 Feliciano Lopez who is taking in the event in Quito, and that also is shown with the big prices being offered in every tournament being played this week.
Without the big names, it is a good chance for someone to add a title to their CV this week and also pick up vital Ranking points that can help see players get into main draws of the bigger events down the line.
I didn't make any picks in the first two weeks of the tennis season after looking at the records over the last few seasons and realising I didn't have a good read of the form of players coming off a relatively long absence.
The off-season means new tactics, perhaps new motivation for players and others are still trying to peak for the Australian Open.
It turned out to be very much the correct decision after a pretty awesome two weeks at the Grand Slam to give the 2015 season a perfect start.
Hopefully February turns out to be another successful month to back up the Australian Open success.
ATP Zagreb
I am concentrating on the tournament being played in Zagreb for my outright picks this week because I feel the two players at the top of the Montpellier draws, Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils, are a little short considering the lack of form they have displayed.
The event in Quito looks wide open considering the top Seed is Feliciano Lopez and his struggles on clay courts, while the other players involved have been inconsistent to say the least.
Zagreb looks a wide open tournament which has been dominated by home players in recent years- 5 of the last 6 winners here have been Croatian, although Marin Cilic is not fit enough to return to the Tour and try and win here for the third time in a row.
Ivo Karlovic leads the way as the Number 1 Seed and I can imagine that he might have a few supporters this week, but he hasn't been beyond the Quarter Final in Zagreb before. He has also been given a pretty tough draw with a potential Second Round match against Marcos Baghdatis in the offing and Mikhail Youzhny, a former Champion here, a potential Quarter Final opponent.
That might open the door for someone like Victor Troicki to breakthrough in the top half of the draw and he has plenty of supporters this week which has seen him backed down to joint-favourite to win the event.
Troicki has returned with new motivation from his ban and he already has one title this season as be bids to move back up the Rankings. while the draw looks a good one for him. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez is a tough potential Quarter Final opponent, but you would think the indoor hard court conditions would favour Troicki in that potential match up and he is worth backing this week.
However, I also want to back Ivan Dodig from the bottom half of the draw as a former winner of this event and with the trend that has favoured a Croatian winner in Zagreb. Dodig has a Quarter Final under his belt this season and he did push Kei Nishikori, while I expect the indoor hard court will favour the booming serve and aggressive play that Dodig likes to demonstrate.
He has reached the Quarter Final in three consecutive appearances in Zagreb since winning the event, but a defeat to eventual Champion Marin Cilic last season isn't a disappointing result. Dodig won't have a lot to fear in the bottom half of the draw until the Semi Final stage at least and can keep up the proud record the Croatian players have in front of their own fans.
As a former winner here, I think Dodig looks a pretty big price to earn a title again and make a positive move up the Rankings from his current position of 85th.
MY PICKS: Victor Troicki @ 6.00 Coral (1 Unit E/W)
Ivan Dodig @ 13.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)
Australian Open Daily Picks Final: 36-23, + 29.35 Units (111 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)
Australian Open Outright Picks Final: 1-3, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20 % Yield)
Season 2015: + 27.35 Units (121 Units Staked, + 22.60% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Friday, 7 February 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 7th)
It certainly has been one of those bad weeks that you will see during the course of an eleven month season as the third player this week has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Federico Delbonis had match points in the third set against Taro Daniel but couldn't find the winning shot, although a fairer reflection of the match would have seen him close it out in two sets.
Instead he ends up on the wrong side of a 16, 76, 76 loss and that kind of sums up the way the picks have landed for me in what has been a miserable run of bad luck.
I am the first to admit bad picks, but I also would be very harsh on myself to think Kenny de Schepper, Andrey Golubev and now Delbonis should not have ended in the winner's enclosure and actually put a much better spin on the week.
The only positive result to take from the week so far is Richard Gasquet making it through to the Quarter Final in Montpellier, although the dangerous Gael Monfils remains in the draw in what has become a much more comfortable bottom half of the draw.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The long absence from tennis came to an end for Marin Cilic at the end of last season following his ban from the Tour, but he is yet to really have an impact as he looks to recover his form.
The chance to play in front of his own fans at an event where he has enjoyed plenty of success may help him get back to the form that we expect of him and I think he is going to be too strong for his compatriot Ivan Dodig in this Quarter Final.
Cilic has dominated the head to head between the players and has come through two matches here without dropping a set, albeit against players ranked much lower than Dodig, and those wins should give him some confidence. He enjoys the indoor hard courts in Zagreb and has the serve to at least keep Dodig on his heels a little and not allow the latter to come forward to attack.
His opponent may have come through in straight sets against Ivo Karlovic, but Dodig will be aware that he needs to serve better in this one after giving up 7 break point chances yesterday. Dodig hasn't had the best starts to 2014 himself, but is another former winner here so this should be a fairly close match.
However, Cilic may be playing a little more solid tennis at the moment and should have enough to come through 76, 64.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Daniel Evans: At first glance, I did feel this was a lot of games for the German player to be giving up in this match, but I think Philipp Kohlschreiber should be able to cover against Daniel Evans.
The reason I believe that is because Evans does have the tendency to lose sets comfortably at times, including losing the first set 61 to Michael Berrer in his Second Round win yesterday.
Evans has a high-risk kind of game and even being slightly off means he can produce a glut of errors, although he is playing with a little more belief in his own game and can cause upsets as shown in his run to the Third Round at the US Open last season.
Having to play three qualifiers may also have taken something out of his energy tank too and I think Kohlschreiber has an effective enough return to cause problems. If Evans isn't serving well, Kohlschreiber should prove a little too experienced and move through to the Semi Final with a 62, 64 win under his belt.
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Marc Gicquel: A battle between two veterans for a place in the Semi Finals should be won by the higher ranked Jarkko Nieminen in my opinion, although Marc Gicquel has been able to upset two players in a row.
Gicquel's win over Gilles Simon yesterday could at least be put down to the fact that the latter has had a few issues with his health to open 2014 and we may not see the best of Simon until the clay court season or perhaps beyond.
I just feel Gicquel has a lot of tennis in his legs already this week and Jarkko Nieminen, while not blowing out his opponents, has been playing solid enough to beat this opponent for the fifth time in his career.
There will likely be breaks of serve both ways, even if both players have been serving pretty well this week, but I believe Nieminen will have more chances to earn those breaks of serve and can come through 75, 64.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: One of the stranger players on Tour when it comes to consistency, Denis Istomin can fluctuate between someone who would look comfortable in the top 20 to someone who would struggle to beat a player outside of the top 100 at times.
To beat Gael Monfils in front of his home support, Istomin will have to serve much better than he did in the second set against Dmitry Tursunov yesterday when he was broken three times.
Monfils is another player that can be hard to get a real read on, but he has been a little more aggressive from what I have seen in 2014 and this could be a very productive year for the former top 10 player. He should be much higher in the Rankings than his current position of 30 and he has served fairly effectively again this week.
He will need to do that in this tough Quarter Final, but I do believe Monfils has the edge in the match when it comes to the serve and I expect him to force mistakes from the Istomin game with his defensive skills.
Monfils matches are rarely straight-forward, but I think he can come through 75, 63.
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Taro Daniel: I don't like backing players that are coming off long lay offs like the one that Nicolas Almagro has had thanks to a shoulder injury, but he looked solid enough in his first match that I think this match up is one he should be able to dominate.
I backed against Taro Daniel yesterday too, but the Japanese youngster showed enough battling spirit, coupled with Federico Delbonis throwing things away, to come through in three long sets.
With qualifiers played as well this week, it will be interesting to see how much Daniel has left, particularly if he is offering as many opportunities on his own serve as he did in the Second Round.
Almagro served well through his own three set win and my only concern is how sore he is feeling following his first match in three months. He has been given the full time to recover with this match last on court on Friday in Vina Del Mar, but that is the only nagging doubt I have.
If Almagro is feeling as good as yesterday, it will be tough to break his serve and I believe he will reach the Semi Final with a 62, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-6, - 9.3 Units (12 Units Staked, - 77.5% Yield)
Instead he ends up on the wrong side of a 16, 76, 76 loss and that kind of sums up the way the picks have landed for me in what has been a miserable run of bad luck.
I am the first to admit bad picks, but I also would be very harsh on myself to think Kenny de Schepper, Andrey Golubev and now Delbonis should not have ended in the winner's enclosure and actually put a much better spin on the week.
The only positive result to take from the week so far is Richard Gasquet making it through to the Quarter Final in Montpellier, although the dangerous Gael Monfils remains in the draw in what has become a much more comfortable bottom half of the draw.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The long absence from tennis came to an end for Marin Cilic at the end of last season following his ban from the Tour, but he is yet to really have an impact as he looks to recover his form.
The chance to play in front of his own fans at an event where he has enjoyed plenty of success may help him get back to the form that we expect of him and I think he is going to be too strong for his compatriot Ivan Dodig in this Quarter Final.
Cilic has dominated the head to head between the players and has come through two matches here without dropping a set, albeit against players ranked much lower than Dodig, and those wins should give him some confidence. He enjoys the indoor hard courts in Zagreb and has the serve to at least keep Dodig on his heels a little and not allow the latter to come forward to attack.
His opponent may have come through in straight sets against Ivo Karlovic, but Dodig will be aware that he needs to serve better in this one after giving up 7 break point chances yesterday. Dodig hasn't had the best starts to 2014 himself, but is another former winner here so this should be a fairly close match.
However, Cilic may be playing a little more solid tennis at the moment and should have enough to come through 76, 64.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Daniel Evans: At first glance, I did feel this was a lot of games for the German player to be giving up in this match, but I think Philipp Kohlschreiber should be able to cover against Daniel Evans.
The reason I believe that is because Evans does have the tendency to lose sets comfortably at times, including losing the first set 61 to Michael Berrer in his Second Round win yesterday.
Evans has a high-risk kind of game and even being slightly off means he can produce a glut of errors, although he is playing with a little more belief in his own game and can cause upsets as shown in his run to the Third Round at the US Open last season.
Having to play three qualifiers may also have taken something out of his energy tank too and I think Kohlschreiber has an effective enough return to cause problems. If Evans isn't serving well, Kohlschreiber should prove a little too experienced and move through to the Semi Final with a 62, 64 win under his belt.
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Marc Gicquel: A battle between two veterans for a place in the Semi Finals should be won by the higher ranked Jarkko Nieminen in my opinion, although Marc Gicquel has been able to upset two players in a row.
Gicquel's win over Gilles Simon yesterday could at least be put down to the fact that the latter has had a few issues with his health to open 2014 and we may not see the best of Simon until the clay court season or perhaps beyond.
I just feel Gicquel has a lot of tennis in his legs already this week and Jarkko Nieminen, while not blowing out his opponents, has been playing solid enough to beat this opponent for the fifth time in his career.
There will likely be breaks of serve both ways, even if both players have been serving pretty well this week, but I believe Nieminen will have more chances to earn those breaks of serve and can come through 75, 64.
Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: One of the stranger players on Tour when it comes to consistency, Denis Istomin can fluctuate between someone who would look comfortable in the top 20 to someone who would struggle to beat a player outside of the top 100 at times.
To beat Gael Monfils in front of his home support, Istomin will have to serve much better than he did in the second set against Dmitry Tursunov yesterday when he was broken three times.
Monfils is another player that can be hard to get a real read on, but he has been a little more aggressive from what I have seen in 2014 and this could be a very productive year for the former top 10 player. He should be much higher in the Rankings than his current position of 30 and he has served fairly effectively again this week.
He will need to do that in this tough Quarter Final, but I do believe Monfils has the edge in the match when it comes to the serve and I expect him to force mistakes from the Istomin game with his defensive skills.
Monfils matches are rarely straight-forward, but I think he can come through 75, 63.
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Taro Daniel: I don't like backing players that are coming off long lay offs like the one that Nicolas Almagro has had thanks to a shoulder injury, but he looked solid enough in his first match that I think this match up is one he should be able to dominate.
I backed against Taro Daniel yesterday too, but the Japanese youngster showed enough battling spirit, coupled with Federico Delbonis throwing things away, to come through in three long sets.
With qualifiers played as well this week, it will be interesting to see how much Daniel has left, particularly if he is offering as many opportunities on his own serve as he did in the Second Round.
Almagro served well through his own three set win and my only concern is how sore he is feeling following his first match in three months. He has been given the full time to recover with this match last on court on Friday in Vina Del Mar, but that is the only nagging doubt I have.
If Almagro is feeling as good as yesterday, it will be tough to break his serve and I believe he will reach the Semi Final with a 62, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-6, - 9.3 Units (12 Units Staked, - 77.5% Yield)
Thursday, 6 February 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 6th)
That was an embarrassing day as all three picks fell through the floor, but it makes it worse when you see how close things have come and how silly some of the things that happen that kill the picks. For example, Andrey Golubev serves for the match at 53 in the third set, loses serve but still manages to come through in a tie-break but misses covering the games.
The Christian Garin defeat may look one-sided, but I have never seen anyone miss as many ridiculously easy balls as this kid did- now don't get me wrong, it is tough for a 17 year old to play against a top 50 player on the Tour, but that does not give someone a free pass from missing balls from the middle of the court.
Some of the shot selection was pretty ridiculous too with Garin preferring to go for the fabulous shot that would get the crowd going than trying to put away simple volleys. Again, you have to give some leeway for picking a young player, but I did expect much more of the basics to be completed by him and Garin missed far too many 'easy' shots to get away with beating a player as solid as Jeremy Chardy.
At the end of the day, the worst thing I can say for Garin is that Chardy barely had to get out of first gear as he was being presented with error after error, even from some of the most basic positions of the court. It was clear that Chardy was going to simply keep the ball in play at times and that did lead to him losing his initial break advantage in the first set. However, that was a temporary reprieve for Garvin as he then fell apart.
So that means I haven't picked a winner this week but both Andrey Golubev and Kenny de Schepper couldn't have got much closer to covering without doing so and that is the slight bit of luck that would have turned a big loss into a small one. Outside of the Australian Open, the start of this season has followed a very close trend to the end of last season where that slight bit of good fortune that every one needs has deserted me.
To say I was extremely frustrated watching the way the last two picks went down is an under-statement, but you have to think that bit of luck with come because the players are seemingly in the right positions yet not quite getting over the line when the opportunity presents.
Ivan Dodig v Ivo Karlovic: This will be the fifth meeting between these two Croatian players and the second time that they have played on the indoor hard courts of Zagreb following their clash last season.
At the moment, it is Ivan Dodig who has controlled the matches with four straight wins, but Ivo Karlovic will always give himself a chance with his serve, especially if it is as effective as it was in the First Round when he fired down 44 aces in the win over Daniel Brands.
Dodig himself has a decent serve and is comfortable getting forward to the net and will keep the pressure on Karlovic to make passes, while he will also attempt to attack the second serve by getting forward to the net.
Their matches have been close, even the straight sets win for Dodig at the Australian Open, but I think the younger player is a little too athletic and will find a way to come through this in three sets.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: The young player from Japan caused a surprise in the First Round when he beat Thomaz Bellucci in straight sets, but I think Taro Daniel will find it tough to back that up against Federico Delbonis.
Delbonis made his breakthrough on the ATP Tour by reaching the Final in Hamburg last summer, which included a win over Roger Federer in the Semi Final, and he looked good in the First Round too.
His clay court pedigree should prove to be the difference in this Second Round match with this being Delbonis' favourite surface. He served well in the First Round and anything similar to that will keep the pressure on Daniel in this match too and should produce opportunities for Delbonis to break serve.
I believe Delbonis may take a few games to get into the match as he probably hasn't seen much of Daniel before, but I think he will prove too strong and come through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Ivan Dodig @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-5, - 9 Units (9 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
The Christian Garin defeat may look one-sided, but I have never seen anyone miss as many ridiculously easy balls as this kid did- now don't get me wrong, it is tough for a 17 year old to play against a top 50 player on the Tour, but that does not give someone a free pass from missing balls from the middle of the court.
Some of the shot selection was pretty ridiculous too with Garin preferring to go for the fabulous shot that would get the crowd going than trying to put away simple volleys. Again, you have to give some leeway for picking a young player, but I did expect much more of the basics to be completed by him and Garin missed far too many 'easy' shots to get away with beating a player as solid as Jeremy Chardy.
At the end of the day, the worst thing I can say for Garin is that Chardy barely had to get out of first gear as he was being presented with error after error, even from some of the most basic positions of the court. It was clear that Chardy was going to simply keep the ball in play at times and that did lead to him losing his initial break advantage in the first set. However, that was a temporary reprieve for Garvin as he then fell apart.
So that means I haven't picked a winner this week but both Andrey Golubev and Kenny de Schepper couldn't have got much closer to covering without doing so and that is the slight bit of luck that would have turned a big loss into a small one. Outside of the Australian Open, the start of this season has followed a very close trend to the end of last season where that slight bit of good fortune that every one needs has deserted me.
To say I was extremely frustrated watching the way the last two picks went down is an under-statement, but you have to think that bit of luck with come because the players are seemingly in the right positions yet not quite getting over the line when the opportunity presents.
Ivan Dodig v Ivo Karlovic: This will be the fifth meeting between these two Croatian players and the second time that they have played on the indoor hard courts of Zagreb following their clash last season.
At the moment, it is Ivan Dodig who has controlled the matches with four straight wins, but Ivo Karlovic will always give himself a chance with his serve, especially if it is as effective as it was in the First Round when he fired down 44 aces in the win over Daniel Brands.
Dodig himself has a decent serve and is comfortable getting forward to the net and will keep the pressure on Karlovic to make passes, while he will also attempt to attack the second serve by getting forward to the net.
Their matches have been close, even the straight sets win for Dodig at the Australian Open, but I think the younger player is a little too athletic and will find a way to come through this in three sets.
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: The young player from Japan caused a surprise in the First Round when he beat Thomaz Bellucci in straight sets, but I think Taro Daniel will find it tough to back that up against Federico Delbonis.
Delbonis made his breakthrough on the ATP Tour by reaching the Final in Hamburg last summer, which included a win over Roger Federer in the Semi Final, and he looked good in the First Round too.
His clay court pedigree should prove to be the difference in this Second Round match with this being Delbonis' favourite surface. He served well in the First Round and anything similar to that will keep the pressure on Daniel in this match too and should produce opportunities for Delbonis to break serve.
I believe Delbonis may take a few games to get into the match as he probably hasn't seen much of Daniel before, but I think he will prove too strong and come through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Ivan Dodig @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-5, - 9 Units (9 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (February 5th)
Thanks to the tube strike in London, I have a day where I can actually watch some of the tennis being played at the events in Montpellier, Zagreb and Vina Del Mar, although I hope the players I pick can put in a better effort than they did in the two losing efforts on Tuesday.
It was a strange day considering Kenny de Schepper seemingly dominated the first two sets of his match but couldn't put it away in the tie-breaker in the second set before going down in a close three set loss. Michael Llodra was another disappointment with a laissez-faire attitude in his loss to Marc Gicquel despite creating more chances in the match to break serve.
These things happen at times and there isn't a lot you can do about it, even if the markets for Vina Del Mar came out a little too late and there was at least two players there I would have recommended. Hindsight is 20-20 though and I will hope this Wednesday produces better results in what has been a very mixed start to the 2014 season.
Jan Hajek v Daniel Evans: I don't particularly rate Jan Hajek as a top quality player on the Tour, but I have no idea why he is considered the underdog in this First Round match against Daniel Evans so I have to have a small interest in the Czech player.
Hajek is most comfortable on the clay courts, but he did reach the Quarter Final in Montpellier last season having won back to back matches as the underdog and his experience will make life difficult for Evans.
The run to the Third Round at the US Open was Evans' big breakthrough on the Tour last season after he had enjoyed some success in the Davis Cup ties for Great Britain. However, he is only in the main draw in Zagreb after earning a 'Lucky Loser' spot when he lost in the final round of qualifying as the favourite.
Evans has qualified for the event here before and was beaten in the First Round, and he has lost a number of matches he was expected to win over the last few months since the US Open run. He might not have anything to lose having already 'lost' in the qualifiers, but I think Hajek may just have a little too much know-how and come through in three sets.
Andrey Golubev - 1.5 games v Victor Hanescu: This is a First Round match that should give the edge to Andrey Golubev in the contest, especially with some confidence boosting wins in the Davis Cup that led Kazakhstan to the Quarter Finals of that tournament.
Out of the two players, Golubev has shown much more comfort on the faster indoor hard court surfaces than Victor Hanescu who favours the clay courts despite having a decent serve himself. I think the movement issues of Hanescu are most exposed on the faster surfaces where the ball travels through the court and I am also unsurprised that these two have split their two previous matches with Golubev winning on the indoor hard court and Hansecu winning on clay.
Hanescu also lost both Davis Cup rubbers on an indoor hard court over the weekend in contrast to Golubev winning his two rubbers.
There is likely to be decent serving on both sides of the court in this one, but I think Golubev proves to be a little too good at the critical moments and move through 76, 64.
Christian Garin + 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: This is a repeat of a match played at this tournament last season with local hope Christian Garin taking on one of the seeded players this week in Jeremy Chardy.
Garin is still only seventeen, but he showed a decent serve and forehand when pushing Chardy the distance last season, although the pressure of the Frenchman ended up being too much as the match developed a year ago. However, Garin will be growing and should be stronger this time around although perhaps not quite ready to cause an upset.
We know what to expect from Chardy as he has a pretty solid game all around and I expect that is going to be what separates the players at the end of the match as his level won't fluctuate as much as Garin's will. The youngster may be still developing his game, but the home crowd may help him make this one a little closer than last season and I will take the games on offer.
MY PICKS: Jan Hajek @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andrey Golubev - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Christian Garin + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
It was a strange day considering Kenny de Schepper seemingly dominated the first two sets of his match but couldn't put it away in the tie-breaker in the second set before going down in a close three set loss. Michael Llodra was another disappointment with a laissez-faire attitude in his loss to Marc Gicquel despite creating more chances in the match to break serve.
These things happen at times and there isn't a lot you can do about it, even if the markets for Vina Del Mar came out a little too late and there was at least two players there I would have recommended. Hindsight is 20-20 though and I will hope this Wednesday produces better results in what has been a very mixed start to the 2014 season.
Jan Hajek v Daniel Evans: I don't particularly rate Jan Hajek as a top quality player on the Tour, but I have no idea why he is considered the underdog in this First Round match against Daniel Evans so I have to have a small interest in the Czech player.
Hajek is most comfortable on the clay courts, but he did reach the Quarter Final in Montpellier last season having won back to back matches as the underdog and his experience will make life difficult for Evans.
The run to the Third Round at the US Open was Evans' big breakthrough on the Tour last season after he had enjoyed some success in the Davis Cup ties for Great Britain. However, he is only in the main draw in Zagreb after earning a 'Lucky Loser' spot when he lost in the final round of qualifying as the favourite.
Evans has qualified for the event here before and was beaten in the First Round, and he has lost a number of matches he was expected to win over the last few months since the US Open run. He might not have anything to lose having already 'lost' in the qualifiers, but I think Hajek may just have a little too much know-how and come through in three sets.
Andrey Golubev - 1.5 games v Victor Hanescu: This is a First Round match that should give the edge to Andrey Golubev in the contest, especially with some confidence boosting wins in the Davis Cup that led Kazakhstan to the Quarter Finals of that tournament.
Out of the two players, Golubev has shown much more comfort on the faster indoor hard court surfaces than Victor Hanescu who favours the clay courts despite having a decent serve himself. I think the movement issues of Hanescu are most exposed on the faster surfaces where the ball travels through the court and I am also unsurprised that these two have split their two previous matches with Golubev winning on the indoor hard court and Hansecu winning on clay.
Hanescu also lost both Davis Cup rubbers on an indoor hard court over the weekend in contrast to Golubev winning his two rubbers.
There is likely to be decent serving on both sides of the court in this one, but I think Golubev proves to be a little too good at the critical moments and move through 76, 64.
Christian Garin + 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: This is a repeat of a match played at this tournament last season with local hope Christian Garin taking on one of the seeded players this week in Jeremy Chardy.
Garin is still only seventeen, but he showed a decent serve and forehand when pushing Chardy the distance last season, although the pressure of the Frenchman ended up being too much as the match developed a year ago. However, Garin will be growing and should be stronger this time around although perhaps not quite ready to cause an upset.
We know what to expect from Chardy as he has a pretty solid game all around and I expect that is going to be what separates the players at the end of the match as his level won't fluctuate as much as Garin's will. The youngster may be still developing his game, but the home crowd may help him make this one a little closer than last season and I will take the games on offer.
MY PICKS: Jan Hajek @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andrey Golubev - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Christian Garin + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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