Tennis Picks 2014 (February 7th)

It certainly has been one of those bad weeks that you will see during the course of an eleven month season as the third player this week has managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Federico Delbonis had match points in the third set against Taro Daniel but couldn't find the winning shot, although a fairer reflection of the match would have seen him close it out in two sets.

Instead he ends up on the wrong side of a 16, 76, 76 loss and that kind of sums up the way the picks have landed for me in what has been a miserable run of bad luck.

I am the first to admit bad picks, but I also would be very harsh on myself to think Kenny de Schepper, Andrey Golubev and now Delbonis should not have ended in the winner's enclosure and actually put a much better spin on the week.


The only positive result to take from the week so far is Richard Gasquet making it through to the Quarter Final in Montpellier, although the dangerous Gael Monfils remains in the draw in what has become a much more comfortable bottom half of the draw.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Ivan Dodig: The long absence from tennis came to an end for Marin Cilic at the end of last season following his ban from the Tour, but he is yet to really have an impact as he looks to recover his form.

The chance to play in front of his own fans at an event where he has enjoyed plenty of success may help him get back to the form that we expect of him and I think he is going to be too strong for his compatriot Ivan Dodig in this Quarter Final.

Cilic has dominated the head to head between the players and has come through two matches here without dropping a set, albeit against players ranked much lower than Dodig, and those wins should give him some confidence. He enjoys the indoor hard courts in Zagreb and has the serve to at least keep Dodig on his heels a little and not allow the latter to come forward to attack.

His opponent may have come through in straight sets against Ivo Karlovic, but Dodig will be aware that he needs to serve better in this one after giving up 7 break point chances yesterday. Dodig hasn't had the best starts to 2014 himself, but is another former winner here so this should be a fairly close match.

However, Cilic may be playing a little more solid tennis at the moment and should have enough to come through 76, 64.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 games v Daniel Evans: At first glance, I did feel this was a lot of games for the German player to be giving up in this match, but I think Philipp Kohlschreiber should be able to cover against Daniel Evans.

The reason I believe that is because Evans does have the tendency to lose sets comfortably at times, including losing the first set 61 to Michael Berrer in his Second Round win yesterday.

Evans has a high-risk kind of game and even being slightly off means he can produce a glut of errors, although he is playing with a little more belief in his own game and can cause upsets as shown in his run to the Third Round at the US Open last season.

Having to play three qualifiers may also have taken something out of his energy tank too and I think Kohlschreiber has an effective enough return to cause problems. If Evans isn't serving well, Kohlschreiber should prove a little too experienced and move through to the Semi Final with a 62, 64 win under his belt.


Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 games v Marc Gicquel: A battle between two veterans for a place in the Semi Finals should be won by the higher ranked Jarkko Nieminen in my opinion, although Marc Gicquel has been able to upset two players in a row.

Gicquel's win over Gilles Simon yesterday could at least be put down to the fact that the latter has had a few issues with his health to open 2014 and we may not see the best of Simon until the clay court season or perhaps beyond.

I just feel Gicquel has a lot of tennis in his legs already this week and Jarkko Nieminen, while not blowing out his opponents, has been playing solid enough to beat this opponent for the fifth time in his career.

There will likely be breaks of serve both ways, even if both players have been serving pretty well this week, but I believe Nieminen will have more chances to earn those breaks of serve and can come through 75, 64.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Denis Istomin: One of the stranger players on Tour when it comes to consistency, Denis Istomin can fluctuate between someone who would look comfortable in the top 20 to someone who would struggle to beat a player outside of the top 100 at times.

To beat Gael Monfils in front of his home support, Istomin will have to serve much better than he did in the second set against Dmitry Tursunov yesterday when he was broken three times.

Monfils is another player that can be hard to get a real read on, but he has been a little more aggressive from what I have seen in 2014 and this could be a very productive year for the former top 10 player. He should be much higher in the Rankings than his current position of 30 and he has served fairly effectively again this week.

He will need to do that in this tough Quarter Final, but I do believe Monfils has the edge in the match when it comes to the serve and I expect him to force mistakes from the Istomin game with his defensive skills.

Monfils matches are rarely straight-forward, but I think he can come through 75, 63.


Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 games v Taro Daniel: I don't like backing players that are coming off long lay offs like the one that Nicolas Almagro has had thanks to a shoulder injury, but he looked solid enough in his first match that I think this match up is one he should be able to dominate.

I backed against Taro Daniel yesterday too, but the Japanese youngster showed enough battling spirit, coupled with Federico Delbonis throwing things away, to come through in three long sets.

With qualifiers played as well this week, it will be interesting to see how much Daniel has left, particularly if he is offering as many opportunities on his own serve as he did in the Second Round.

Almagro served well through his own three set win and my only concern is how sore he is feeling following his first match in three months. He has been given the full time to recover with this match last on court on Friday in Vina Del Mar, but that is the only nagging doubt I have.

If Almagro is feeling as good as yesterday, it will be tough to break his serve and I believe he will reach the Semi Final with a 62, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jarkko Nieminen - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-6, - 9.3 Units (12 Units Staked, - 77.5% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 6th)

That was an embarrassing day as all three picks fell through the floor, but it makes it worse when you see how close things have come and how silly some of the things that happen that kill the picks. For example, Andrey Golubev serves for the match at 53 in the third set, loses serve but still manages to come through in a tie-break but misses covering the games.

The Christian Garin defeat may look one-sided, but I have never seen anyone miss as many ridiculously easy balls as this kid did- now don't get me wrong, it is tough for a 17 year old to play against a top 50 player on the Tour, but that does not give someone a free pass from missing balls from the middle of the court.

Some of the shot selection was pretty ridiculous too with Garin preferring to go for the fabulous shot that would get the crowd going than trying to put away simple volleys. Again, you have to give some leeway for picking a young player, but I did expect much more of the basics to be completed by him and Garin missed far too many 'easy' shots to get away with beating a player as solid as Jeremy Chardy.

At the end of the day, the worst thing I can say for Garin is that Chardy barely had to get out of first gear as he was being presented with error after error, even from some of the most basic positions of the court. It was clear that Chardy was going to simply keep the ball in play at times and that did lead to him losing his initial break advantage in the first set. However, that was a temporary reprieve for Garvin as he then fell apart.


So that means I haven't picked a winner this week but both Andrey Golubev and Kenny de Schepper couldn't have got much closer to covering without doing so and that is the slight bit of luck that would have turned a big loss into a small one. Outside of the Australian Open, the start of this season has followed a very close trend to the end of last season where that slight bit of good fortune that every one needs has deserted me.

To say I was extremely frustrated watching the way the last two picks went down is an under-statement, but you have to think that bit of luck with come because the players are seemingly in the right positions yet not quite getting over the line when the opportunity presents.


Ivan Dodig v Ivo Karlovic: This will be the fifth meeting between these two Croatian players and the second time that they have played on the indoor hard courts of Zagreb following their clash last season.

At the moment, it is Ivan Dodig who has controlled the matches with four straight wins, but Ivo Karlovic will always give himself a chance with his serve, especially if it is as effective as it was in the First Round when he fired down 44 aces in the win over Daniel Brands.

Dodig himself has a decent serve and is comfortable getting forward to the net and will keep the pressure on Karlovic to make passes, while he will also attempt to attack the second serve by getting forward to the net.

Their matches have been close, even the straight sets win for Dodig at the Australian Open, but I think the younger player is a little too athletic and will find a way to come through this in three sets.


Federico Delbonis - 3.5 games v Taro Daniel: The young player from Japan caused a surprise in the First Round when he beat Thomaz Bellucci in straight sets, but I think Taro Daniel will find it tough to back that up against Federico Delbonis.

Delbonis made his breakthrough on the ATP Tour by reaching the Final in Hamburg last summer, which included a win over Roger Federer in the Semi Final, and he looked good in the First Round too.

His clay court pedigree should prove to be the difference in this Second Round match with this being Delbonis' favourite surface. He served well in the First Round and anything similar to that will keep the pressure on Daniel in this match too and should produce opportunities for Delbonis to break serve.

I believe Delbonis may take a few games to get into the match as he probably hasn't seen much of Daniel before, but I think he will prove too strong and come through 64, 63.

MY PICKS: Ivan Dodig @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-5, - 9 Units (9 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (February 5th)

Thanks to the tube strike in London, I have a day where I can actually watch some of the tennis being played at the events in Montpellier, Zagreb and Vina Del Mar, although I hope the players I pick can put in a better effort than they did in the two losing efforts on Tuesday.

It was a strange day considering Kenny de Schepper seemingly dominated the first two sets of his match but couldn't put it away in the tie-breaker in the second set before going down in a close three set loss. Michael Llodra was another disappointment with a laissez-faire attitude in his loss to Marc Gicquel despite creating more chances in the match to break serve.

These things happen at times and there isn't a lot you can do about it, even if the markets for Vina Del Mar came out a little too late and there was at least two players there I would have recommended. Hindsight is 20-20 though and I will hope this Wednesday produces better results in what has been a very mixed start to the 2014 season.


Jan Hajek v Daniel Evans: I don't particularly rate Jan Hajek as a top quality player on the Tour, but I have no idea why he is considered the underdog in this First Round match against Daniel Evans so I have to have a small interest in the Czech player.

Hajek is most comfortable on the clay courts, but he did reach the Quarter Final in Montpellier last season having won back to back matches as the underdog and his experience will make life difficult for Evans.

The run to the Third Round at the US Open was Evans' big breakthrough on the Tour last season after he had enjoyed some success in the Davis Cup ties for Great Britain. However, he is only in the main draw in Zagreb after earning a 'Lucky Loser' spot when he lost in the final round of qualifying as the favourite.

Evans has qualified for the event here before and was beaten in the First Round, and he has lost a number of matches he was expected to win over the last few months since the US Open run. He might not have anything to lose having already 'lost' in the qualifiers, but I think Hajek may just have a little too much know-how and come through in three sets.


Andrey Golubev - 1.5 games v Victor Hanescu: This is a First Round match that should give the edge to Andrey Golubev in the contest, especially with some confidence boosting wins in the Davis Cup that led Kazakhstan to the Quarter Finals of that tournament.

Out of the two players, Golubev has shown much more comfort on the faster indoor hard court surfaces than Victor Hanescu who favours the clay courts despite having a decent serve himself. I think the movement issues of Hanescu are most exposed on the faster surfaces where the ball travels through the court and I am also unsurprised that these two have split their two previous matches with Golubev winning on the indoor hard court and Hansecu winning on clay.

Hanescu also lost both Davis Cup rubbers on an indoor hard court over the weekend in contrast to Golubev winning his two rubbers.

There is likely to be decent serving on both sides of the court in this one, but I think Golubev proves to be a little too good at the critical moments and move through 76, 64.


Christian Garin + 4.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: This is a repeat of a match played at this tournament last season with local hope Christian Garin taking on one of the seeded players this week in Jeremy Chardy.

Garin is still only seventeen, but he showed a decent serve and forehand when pushing Chardy the distance last season, although the pressure of the Frenchman ended up being too much as the match developed a year ago. However, Garin will be growing and should be stronger this time around although perhaps not quite ready to cause an upset.

We know what to expect from Chardy as he has a pretty solid game all around and I expect that is going to be what separates the players at the end of the match as his level won't fluctuate as much as Garin's will. The youngster may be still developing his game, but the home crowd may help him make this one a little closer than last season and I will take the games on offer.

MY PICKS: Jan Hajek @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andrey Golubev - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Christian Garin + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)