The final day at the Australian Open is headlined by the men's Singles Final and this year it is Marin Cilic taking on Roger Federer for the title.
While the women's Final was contested by the top two players in the World Rankings, the men's Final is between the Number 2 and Number 3 Ranked players.
Roger Federer has been in fantastic form so far this week and has yet to drop a set, but Marin Cilic is perhaps the most dangerous opponent he has faced. I do think this will be a good Final with the way both players have been playing and I am looking forward to the early Sunday start as we close the first Grand Slam of the season.
So what is next for the tennis picks after this weekend? The ATP Tour actually has a free week with the Davis Cup ties in the opening Round of the World Group being played next weekend.
I will look out for any picks from the WTA St Petersburg event that is being played this week with some of the top players on the Tour taking part in that event. However with just the one tournament of note up until Friday it may not be a lot of options available and so the tennis picks this week are likely to be out without the consistency of day to day picks.
On Friday I should have some picks from the Davis Cup to add to any selections from the WTA St Petersburg event.
The week after this one we will get to see three ATP events beginning with the 'Golden Swing' in South America, the indoor European season and the North American hard court events all beginning. That means a busy month is ahead before we get to the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells which begins in early March after the first ATP 500 events have been placed in the books in February.
Marin Cilic-Roger Federer over 38.5 games: The feeling was that we were heading towards a repeat of the 2017 Australian Open Final when Rafael Nadal took a 2-1 lead over Marin Cilic in their Quarter Final. However it was not to be for the World Number 1 who suffered an injury in the fourth set and Marin Cilic took full advantage to reach another Grand Slam Final.
The run to the Final here in Melbourne also means Cilic is going to reach a career high of World Number 3 whether he wins or loses here. The all around game that Cilic possesses does make him a very dangerous opponent for anyone he plays with the big serve and the heavy groundstrokes able to dictate rallies to his liking.
Redemption will also be on the mind of Cilic going into Sunday's Final.
Last year at Wimbledon was perhaps the lowest point of Cilic's career as an injury taken into the Final almost forced him to pull out of the match. He tried hard to compete, but emotionally it was all too much for Cilic who openly shed tears on Centre Court and then battled against all odds to at least complete the Final.
That would have gotten Cilic a lot of sympathy, but it is never easy to have the crowd support you over Roger Federer who was also his opponent at Wimbledon on that day.
Federer has moved through to the Final without dropping a set in the Australian Open and he should be well rested after Hyeon Chung pulled out of their Semi Final when trailing 6-1, 5-2. That could be important for Federer, although I don't doubt his fitness, and I don't think either Cilic or the defending Champion will feel they could come into this Final in much better condition.
A healthy Cilic has also been a tough test for Federer to deal with even if the Swiss player has gotten the better of the head to head. When Cilic is serving to his maximum level, Federer can struggle to get a look in and the match Tomas Berdych played against Federer in the Quarter Final has to be on the mind of Cilic going into this Final.
Berdych has perhaps been the closest player to take a set from Federer this week and he made a fast start which put Federer under pressure. He even served for the first set and Cilic is arguably a similar player, but superior in most departments these days. Cilic will be able to set his points up with the big serve, if it is firing, and he is securer with his movement and groundstrokes than Berdych, while I also think Cilic is a little more comfortable at the net.
Suffice to say I don't imagine this Final going the same way as the one at Wimbledon, especially with Cilic much healthier coming into this match.
Matches between these players may have generally ended in favour of Federer, but Cilic has beaten him at the US Open on the way to winning the title there and also held a 2-0 lead in sets at Wimbledon in 2016 before missing a huge chance to beat Federer there too.
In fact Cilic has taken at least one set in four of the last five matches between him and Federer including at the ATP Finals a few months ago. Yes he has only won one of those matches, but I would be massively surprised if Cilic is able to record another straight sets win over Federer at a Grand Slam with the way the latter is playing.
However Cilic is playing well enough to take a set and he is serving well enough to make Federer dig deep to turn this back around. It would be a surprise if Federer is not able to win at least one set and I can see this Final being another classic Down Under with at least four sets needed.
I can't see either player falling away easily in the match and the serving both have produced suggests this is a match that is going to feature four tight sets at the least. That should give the Final every chance of covering this number of games set in the total games market.
A tiebreaker or two can't be ruled out and I think three competitive sets will be enough to cover the number as long as neither player wins this match in straight sets. The numbers being produced by both men suggests that is unlikely to be the case barring something unforeseen happening and I am looking for the total games to be surpassed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic-Roger Federer Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 35-38, - 4.84 Units (125 Units Staked, - 3.87% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Marin Cilic. Show all posts
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Saturday, 27 January 2018
Monday, 29 August 2011
US Open Day 1 Picks
The schedule for Day 1 of the US Open was revised on Sunday evening as the effects of Hurricane Irena are still being felt up and down the East Coast.
Now on to the Day 1 Picks as the final Grand Slam of the year gets underway:
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: Marin Cilic had one of his best Grand Slam performances at this tournament when reaching the Quarter Final in 2009, but he has not progressed as much as he would have liked since then yet I do fancy him to get his US Open campaign off to a strong start against the young American.
Harrison has shown some real promise over the Summer by reaching Semi Finals in LA and Atlanta, but a heavy defeat at the hands of Mardy Fish and Victor Troicki suggest he still has some work to do against the bigger guns.
Harrison did surprise Ivan Ljubicic at this stage last year, but I think Cilic will be too strong and should cover the spread even if it takes 4 sets to win the match.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Richard Gasquet is having a decent season on the tour and has shown his class against the lesser opponents he has faced and I feel he will be able to do the same thing here.
Stakhovsky has not had a great season and his serve is erratic and can let him down in sets. He has been beaten in straight sets when exiting the last 2 Grand Slam events, although finished as a 3rd Round loser here last year.
Gasquet should have too much all around game for Stakhovsky and I expect him to come through in 3 sets with a break in the first 2 before running away with the 3rd to cover the handicap.
Treble; Michael Llodra vs Victor Hanescu, Ivo Karlovic vs Fernando Gonzalez and Radek Stepanek vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek have strong records against their opponents and have also been in stronger form than them.
Michael Llodra and Stepanek have also won matches against their respective opponents in the US Open and the treble looks value at over 2-1.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Treble; Michael Llodra, Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek @ 3.17 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Now on to the Day 1 Picks as the final Grand Slam of the year gets underway:
Marin Cilic - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: Marin Cilic had one of his best Grand Slam performances at this tournament when reaching the Quarter Final in 2009, but he has not progressed as much as he would have liked since then yet I do fancy him to get his US Open campaign off to a strong start against the young American.
Harrison has shown some real promise over the Summer by reaching Semi Finals in LA and Atlanta, but a heavy defeat at the hands of Mardy Fish and Victor Troicki suggest he still has some work to do against the bigger guns.
Harrison did surprise Ivan Ljubicic at this stage last year, but I think Cilic will be too strong and should cover the spread even if it takes 4 sets to win the match.
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Richard Gasquet is having a decent season on the tour and has shown his class against the lesser opponents he has faced and I feel he will be able to do the same thing here.
Stakhovsky has not had a great season and his serve is erratic and can let him down in sets. He has been beaten in straight sets when exiting the last 2 Grand Slam events, although finished as a 3rd Round loser here last year.
Gasquet should have too much all around game for Stakhovsky and I expect him to come through in 3 sets with a break in the first 2 before running away with the 3rd to cover the handicap.
Treble; Michael Llodra vs Victor Hanescu, Ivo Karlovic vs Fernando Gonzalez and Radek Stepanek vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek have strong records against their opponents and have also been in stronger form than them.
Michael Llodra and Stepanek have also won matches against their respective opponents in the US Open and the treble looks value at over 2-1.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Treble; Michael Llodra, Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek @ 3.17 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tuesday, 16 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 16th Cincinnati
A good start to the week as 3 of the 4 picks came up trumps yesterday and the form from the back end of last week has continued. I am hoping to ride this hot hand a little further, as we have a lot of options to choose from today.
On to the Picks:
Florian Mayer vs Ivo Karlovic: This is more a back against Ivo Karlovic than it is a back of Florian Mayer as I don't think the big Croatian should be favoured too often these days.
He has improved his overall game, but the serve is not as potent as it once was and Karlovic's new found belief in his ground game means he is giving more chances for the opponent to win tie breaks against him.
Mayer's awkward style will also aid the German player and he will draw confidence having beaten Karlovic on the hard courts of Miami earlier this season.
Marin Cilic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Marin Cilic looks to be returning to some sort of form and looked impressive in his straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro last week in Montreal.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has really raised his game over the last 3 months and his win over Roger Federer last week will have got people taking notes for the US Open.
However, Tsonga has been suffering with a bicep problem and I can't see him wanting to aggravate that just 2 weeks before Flushing Meadows- he may not be playing at full power and that may just shift the advantage to Cilic.
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Janko Tipsarevic had a big week in Montreal last week and while it has been written that those going deep in Canada struggle at this tournament, I can only see one winner here.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin has come through 2 qualifying rounds to get here, but he is far too inconsistent and I can't see him doing enough to trouble Tipsarevic.
Tipsarevic himself is inconsistent else he would be higher in the rankings so there is a concern backing him as a short priced favourite to cover handicaps, but he has beaten Roger-Vasselin twice before with enough comfort to suggest he will do it again.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Juan Monaco: Tomas Berdych has already beaten Juan Monaco twice this season, both on the Argentinian's favoured clay courts, and both in straight sets without too many concerns.
Berdych is not at the level of last season when he reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros and the Final at Wimbledon, but it is the better players that remain his issue and I expect him to swat aside this challenge.
The Czech Number 1 has won all 5 previous meetings with Monaco and he does everything Monaco does but only better and I expect a 6th win.
Roger Federer - 3 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: I know Roger Federer had a hard time in Montreal last week, but he loves this tournament and I think he can restore his confidence with a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro.
The Argentinian is getting better and better since his wrist injury, but he still is a little short of the top 4 and I think we will see that here.
I think the odds have been skewed by Federer's disappointing loss last week, but I expect him to make a mockery of them.
Nadia Petrova - 2 games vs Roberta Vinci: I think the odds here are all wrong because of Vinci's good run in Toronto but Nadia Petrova should be a bigger favourite in my humble opinion.
Petrova was beaten by Vera Zvonareva last week, but there is no shame in that, and she has been in good form by winning in Washington before that.
Vinci lost recently to Jie Zheng and was beaten convincingly by Petrova on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games vs Chanelle Scheepers: Petra Kvitova exited the tournament in Toronto in disappointing fashion last week but I expect she can bounce back against her South African opponent, even though Scheepers has done well to win 3 matches here already this week.
However, Scheepers has been comfortably beaten when playing the better players on the tour and was recently routed by Heather Watson of Great Britain, form that will not see her last too long against someone as good as Kvitova.
The Wimbledon Champion has also won easily enough in their 2 previous meetings, winning all 4 sets and not losing more than 6 games in either.
MY PICKS: Florian Mayer @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 2.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nadia Petrova - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.52 Units
On to the Picks:
Florian Mayer vs Ivo Karlovic: This is more a back against Ivo Karlovic than it is a back of Florian Mayer as I don't think the big Croatian should be favoured too often these days.
He has improved his overall game, but the serve is not as potent as it once was and Karlovic's new found belief in his ground game means he is giving more chances for the opponent to win tie breaks against him.
Mayer's awkward style will also aid the German player and he will draw confidence having beaten Karlovic on the hard courts of Miami earlier this season.
Marin Cilic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Marin Cilic looks to be returning to some sort of form and looked impressive in his straight sets win over Juan Martin Del Potro last week in Montreal.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has really raised his game over the last 3 months and his win over Roger Federer last week will have got people taking notes for the US Open.
However, Tsonga has been suffering with a bicep problem and I can't see him wanting to aggravate that just 2 weeks before Flushing Meadows- he may not be playing at full power and that may just shift the advantage to Cilic.
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin: Janko Tipsarevic had a big week in Montreal last week and while it has been written that those going deep in Canada struggle at this tournament, I can only see one winner here.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin has come through 2 qualifying rounds to get here, but he is far too inconsistent and I can't see him doing enough to trouble Tipsarevic.
Tipsarevic himself is inconsistent else he would be higher in the rankings so there is a concern backing him as a short priced favourite to cover handicaps, but he has beaten Roger-Vasselin twice before with enough comfort to suggest he will do it again.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Juan Monaco: Tomas Berdych has already beaten Juan Monaco twice this season, both on the Argentinian's favoured clay courts, and both in straight sets without too many concerns.
Berdych is not at the level of last season when he reached the Semi Final at Roland Garros and the Final at Wimbledon, but it is the better players that remain his issue and I expect him to swat aside this challenge.
The Czech Number 1 has won all 5 previous meetings with Monaco and he does everything Monaco does but only better and I expect a 6th win.
Roger Federer - 3 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: I know Roger Federer had a hard time in Montreal last week, but he loves this tournament and I think he can restore his confidence with a big win over Juan Martin Del Potro.
The Argentinian is getting better and better since his wrist injury, but he still is a little short of the top 4 and I think we will see that here.
I think the odds have been skewed by Federer's disappointing loss last week, but I expect him to make a mockery of them.
Nadia Petrova - 2 games vs Roberta Vinci: I think the odds here are all wrong because of Vinci's good run in Toronto but Nadia Petrova should be a bigger favourite in my humble opinion.
Petrova was beaten by Vera Zvonareva last week, but there is no shame in that, and she has been in good form by winning in Washington before that.
Vinci lost recently to Jie Zheng and was beaten convincingly by Petrova on the hard courts of Doha earlier this season.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games vs Chanelle Scheepers: Petra Kvitova exited the tournament in Toronto in disappointing fashion last week but I expect she can bounce back against her South African opponent, even though Scheepers has done well to win 3 matches here already this week.
However, Scheepers has been comfortably beaten when playing the better players on the tour and was recently routed by Heather Watson of Great Britain, form that will not see her last too long against someone as good as Kvitova.
The Wimbledon Champion has also won easily enough in their 2 previous meetings, winning all 4 sets and not losing more than 6 games in either.
MY PICKS: Florian Mayer @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 2.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nadia Petrova - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.52 Units
Friday, 29 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 29th Umag and Gstaad
This has to be a fairly quick post although there is time to get on the picks. Due to the late arrival of markets from the bookmakers, I don't have time to put all my analysis down, but take my word that I have been studying the form last night.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games vs Carlos Berlocq
Double; Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Albert Ramos
MY PICKS: Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Still Running from yesterday
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 0.24 Units
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Julien Benneteau
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games vs Andreas Haider-Maurer
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games vs Carlos Berlocq
Double; Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi and Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Albert Ramos
MY PICKS: Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Still Running from yesterday
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 4.5 games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Carlos Ferrero - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Marin Cilic and Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 2.36 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 0.24 Units
Thursday, 28 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 28th Umag and Gstaad
It was a good day without picks in Umag for followers of the blog as Juan Carlos Ferrero moved through the the Quarter Finals after coming from a set behind to beat Ivan Ljubicic. That puts him through to a meeting with Carlos Berlocq in the next Round and I think Ferrero will be considered the favourite to get through to the Final from the position he is in.
I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.
Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.
Now on to the Picks:
Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.
The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.
Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.
Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.
Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.
However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.
Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.
I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.
Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.
Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.
I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.
I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.
MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
I was a little surprised at the start of the week when I noticed the Racing Post had highlighted Tommy Robredo as a good e/w shot at 12-1. Robredo has been suffering with a number of injuries and is clearly not the player of old and I would not have recommended him at 3 times the price.
Unsurprisingly, Robredo pulled out of this tournament, as he had last week in Hamburg, and this was all without hitting a ball in the 2nd Round.
Now on to the Picks:
Julien Benneteau vs Matthias Bachinger: Now before I say anything else, I know Julien Benneteau has been in bade form, but I am still surprised that he is considered the underdog in this match.
The Frenchman has struggled on the main tour in clay events this season, but it has been a different story in the level below that and he is now facing a player that is more used to playing Challenger and qualifying events.
Bachinger has only played 5 matches on clay all season, and really took advantage of Pablo Andujar who has been playing quite a bit of tennis of late. Bachinger has struggled on clay for the last couple of seasons and I am not ready to see him as the favourite in this match.
Double; Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I have a couple of doubts over both of these favourites but I do think both are capable of coming through their tests.
Nicolas Almagro has reached the Semi Final in Bastad and the Final in Hamburg over the last couple of weeks and must feel happy he has had days off since Sunday to recover his fitness. However, the rain has affected play in Gstaad and he will have to win 4 matches in 4 days if he wants to take home the trophy.
However, Almagro has a 3-1 head to head record over Jarkko Nieminen and is the better clay court player. He has won their last 3 meetings, winning 7 sets to 1, and I expect he will be good enough to come through.
Feliciano Lopez followed helping Spain win their Davis Cup tie against the USA by winning a Challenger event on the clay in Colombia and he will feel he can go deep in this tournament. His compatriot has struggled all season and only just scraped through against Steve Darcis in the last Round in a match he should have lost.
I have a couple of concerns that Lopez could be tired from all the travelling of late, but he does have the game to beat Gimeno-Traver and I hope he will show that here.
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Frederico Gil: Fernando Verdasco has been out of form for much of the season, but he showed he might just be turning around a corner when reaching the Semi Final in Hamburg last week and he faces a player that has won just 3 of his last 12 matches.
Verdasco is a little more effective in everything he does and already holds a comfortable 2 set win over Gil from earlier this year when he beat him in Portugal on a clay court. If Verdasco is motivated, he should come through with few problems.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Robin Haase: Marin Cilic was my outright pick last week and he was definitely showing signs of improvement after a few months of sub-standard performances and results.
Cilic will be backed by the home crowd in this match and also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Robin Haase although they last played in 2008.
I cant help oppose Haase here as he has been inconsistent of late while struggling with a knee problem- his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Carlos Berlocq last week is troubling and he had a few problems against Simone Vagnozzi in the 1st Round.
I expect Cilic will come through in straight sets after keeping the pressure on the Haase serve and being a little more consistent and getting the Dutchman moving around the court.
MY PICKS: Julien Benneteau @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Nicolas Almagro and Feliciano Lopez @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG & GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
Thursday, 21 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 21st ATP Hamburg
It was a very good day for the picks I made yesterday as well as for the majority of the favourites that played in Germany yesterday. In fact only Nikolay Davydenko lost as a favourite, going down to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe for the 2nd week in succession.
My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.
There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.
Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.
Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.
On to the Picks:
Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.
I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.
Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.
There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.
Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.
Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.
The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.
Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.
Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.
Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)
My outright pick on Marin Cilic looked solid for his first 2 sets yesterday, but the serve once again lost its way and he was struggling to win anything on his 2nd serve in the final set. However, I was pleased to see him fight back from a break behind in that set to go on and win the match.
There are bigger and tougher tests waiting for Cilic if he wants to at least reach the Final, but the recovery he made in that final set yesterday may just give him a little bit more confidence after a poor season all round.
Good news also comes in the form of television pictures beginning from tomorrow. It is hard to understand why a tournament that is considered a 500 Event does not have TV coverage for the first 3 days of the event. This is even more baffling when considering the majority of 250 Events get some sort of coverage throughout and the fact Hamburg is a former Masters Event and should have no problem bringing in some sort of audience.
Least now I wont have to sit there with my phone checking the live scores during my breaks from working.
On to the Picks:
Marin Cilic vs Tobias Kamke: It seems the German players are really enjoying their time in the home tournaments and Tobias Kamke is just 1 of 5 players still involved in the singles tournament.
I have picked Cilic to win this match because I think he has been underestimated by the bookmakers following his final set struggles against Bastian Knittel. While Cilic clearly was having problems, it seems to be forgotten that he had dominated the first 2 sets and should have been home and dry earlier than he was.
Kamke had a huge win over Juan Ignacio Chela in the last Round, a real shock considering Kamke's general record on the clay. His 2 wins this week means he has improved his record to 3-4 on the season in main tour matches on the surface, but it is hard to ignore the likes of Jan Hayek, Joao Sousa and Guillermo Olaso have all recently beaten Kamke on clay courts.
There is no sign of anything hampering Cilic right now and I think the prices are far too high for him to move through this Round.
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: Fernando Verdasco has really fallen off the level that gave him his career season in 2009 and he has been struggling to put together wins all season. However, he secured a good solid win over Pablo Andujar in his first match in the tournament and should have too much experience and nous for his young German opponent in this match.
Stebe has had another solid week on the main tour and recorded yet another win over Nikolay Davydenko. Last week he reached the Quarter Final before being handily beaten by Pablo Andujar and I expect we may see something similar in this match.
Verdasco's serve has not been that effective of late, but I expect him to do enough to come through this one in straight sets.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Fabio Fognini: Any follower of my blog for any length of time will know I am not the biggest fan of Fabio Fognini, even though he is ranked at Number 38 in the World.
The Italian is very erratic and can mix some sublime stuff in with some extreme garbage and his form is a little hard to judge considering the level of opponents he has met since the French Open. A defeat to Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week does not exactly fill me with confidence.
Jurgen Melzer has not been in great form all season, but he did bring home the prize against Daniel Gimeno-Traver yesterday. The win was more impressive considering he lost the 2nd set before wrapping up the 3rd 6-1.
Melzer will need to serve a little better than today, but he does have the capabilities to do that here and secure a Quarter Final berth.
Melzer has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini when he beat him in Auckland last season. I expect him to make it 2-0 after this match is completed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4 games @ 2.00 10Bet (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 1.95 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.66 Units (Not including July 20th ATP Atlanta Picks)
Tuesday, 19 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Hamburg
I have decided to split my Hamburg picks and Atlanta picks into two separate posts as the schedule for tomorrow's tennis in the USA wont be released until much later, while the prices are only really available in the morning, albeit several hours before the first game is due to start.
I will continue to update the weekly picks on both threads, but I find it is the easiest way to make any picks assuming there are some from both tournaments.
Hamburg used to be one of the top Masters events on the clay courts and while it does not have the big names entering anymore considering its place on the schedule, a good field has still turned up this week.
Yesterday we had a couple of surprises as Juan Carlos Ferrero, Phillip Petzschner and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all lost as short favourites.
The last of those results looks like being a bit of good news for my outright pick of the week- Marin Cilic is yet to play but has seen the likes of Garcia-Lopez and Juan Ignacio Chela fall out of the draw in his section and he looks like he has a decent look at getting to the Quarter Finals now.
I was hoping Carlos Berlocq would have put out Mikhail Youzhny too, but that would be getting greedy and I just hope Cilic can take advantage of the draw opening up for him. He has dropped 8 points at the bookmakers without hitting a ball, so lets just hope he has come to play this week.
Now on to the Picks:
Treble; Marin Cilic vs Bastian Knittel, Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro vs Lukas Rosol: None of the three players I am picking are the most trustworthy when it comes to being priced as short priced favourites in their matches but all three should have enough of an edge over their opponents to get through.
Marin Cilic was my outright pick this week, but he has struggled for form this season with his serve being particularly erratic in recent weeks. However, he plays against a German qualifier that had not won a match on the main tour on a clay court in the last few seasons before he beat Ivan Dodig.
Bastian Knittel is only 14-14 on clay in Challenger events and qualifiers this season and should not really have the level to trouble Cilic.
Gael Monfils is underachieving in his professional career considering all the talent he has- he may be in the top 10, but has failed to win tournaments on a consistent basis and still loses far too many silly matches.
Monfils was a disappointing loser in Stuttgart last week to Victor Hanescu, but he is a decent clay court player and that loss could be put down to his exertions in the Davis Cup a few days prior.
He meets a player that must play around 99% of his matches on the clay courts and one that performs very well on the Challenger circuit and when qualifying for main tour events. However, Ramos has never really transferred that form to the main tour, and I feel Monfils will be too consistent for him if he plays like he can.
Nicolas Almagro is the favourite to win this tournament and is likely to be glad he is playing Lukas Rosol rather than Potito Starace. Almagro is a very strong clay court player and one that has a proven track record of winning tournaments on the surface. His overall game should be too strong for Rosol, although it could be a tight first set.
Double; Florian Mayer vs Marsel Ilhan and Juan Monaco vs Janko Tipsarevic: Both of these players are favourites to win and I believe they can both do so.
Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.
Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.
Marsel Ilhan is beginning to make an impact on the Challenger tour but he has not quite transferred that form onto the main tour. Ilhan did reach a Final on the surface a couple of weeks ago in Holland, but this should represent a hurdle too far here in Hamburg.
Janko Tipsarevic has not played since Serbia won their Davis Cup tie with Sweden and, judging by his statements since, he has enjoyed partying it up with his friends to celebrate. Tipsarevic is usually a tougher opponent on the faster surfaces and last Summer decided to play in Atlanta rather than in the clay tournaments after Wimbledon.
Juan Monaco is a clay court expert and it seems he has got over the foot injury that saw him withdraw at Bastad last week. The Argentine holds a win over Tipsarevic on the clay courts from 2 years ago, and I think he may have a little more motivation for this match.
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is a rematch from Madrid, a match that Gimeno-Traver won in straight sets, but I really feel Melzer can turn the form around this time.
Melzer had won their 2 previous meetings before that match in Madrid, including once on clay, and had won all 4 sets they had competed in. The Austrian might be ranked Number 12 in the World, but he has been struggling for form in recent weeks.
However, he did reach the Final here in Hamburg last year and Gimeno-Traver has been struggling himself this season with only 6 wins from the 24 matches he played this year.
If Melzer can serve well, I think he can put another pressure on Gimeno-Traver to get a break in each set and cover this spread.
MY PICKS: Treble; Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro @ 2.26 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Double; Florian Mayer and Juan Monaco @ 2.39 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units
Thursday, 9 June 2011
Tennis Picks 9th June 2011
Another really quick post here with my picks for the upcoming days play at Queens Club, London.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: Marin Cilic definitely has the tools to be a success on this surface and is perhaps being underestimated to win this match with a bit to spare. The serve was beginning to work much better in the latter stages of his win over Clement in the last Round, and Cilic also has a decent grass court pedigree.
Thomaz Bellucci struggled to beat Ilhan in the last Round, being forced to go the distance, and his lack of grass court experience seems to have hurt him. Bellucci was also fortunate to get past Gregor Dimitrov in the 1st Round and I think he struggles to contain Cilic here.
Sam Querrey - 4.5 games vs James Ward: The defending Champion against a British Wild Card entry looks like a mismatch to me but the bookmakers dont seem to think so. Sam Querrey has shown how difficult it is to contain his serve on grass and I really think he wins in straight sets.
James Ward was impressive in beating Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round, but this is an altogether different test. The win over Wawrinka was the best success Ward has had in his career, but I struggle to believe he can pull a surprise in this match.
A break in each set could be enough to cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.29 Units (+ 0 Units yesterday)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Thomaz Bellucci: Marin Cilic definitely has the tools to be a success on this surface and is perhaps being underestimated to win this match with a bit to spare. The serve was beginning to work much better in the latter stages of his win over Clement in the last Round, and Cilic also has a decent grass court pedigree.
Thomaz Bellucci struggled to beat Ilhan in the last Round, being forced to go the distance, and his lack of grass court experience seems to have hurt him. Bellucci was also fortunate to get past Gregor Dimitrov in the 1st Round and I think he struggles to contain Cilic here.
Sam Querrey - 4.5 games vs James Ward: The defending Champion against a British Wild Card entry looks like a mismatch to me but the bookmakers dont seem to think so. Sam Querrey has shown how difficult it is to contain his serve on grass and I really think he wins in straight sets.
James Ward was impressive in beating Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round, but this is an altogether different test. The win over Wawrinka was the best success Ward has had in his career, but I struggle to believe he can pull a surprise in this match.
A break in each set could be enough to cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.29 Units (+ 0 Units yesterday)
Wednesday, 8 June 2011
Tennis Picks 8th June 2011
I have been extremely busy at work over the last few hours meaning I didn't have a lot of time to put up my picks for today.
I do have two for you, the first of which is starting within an hour and the other later on in the day:
Queens
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Arnaud Clement: Cilic has not been having a great season but I do expect his game to work well on the grass and I expect him to take care of the veteran.
Clement has done well this week, qualifying for the main draw and winning his 1st Round match. The Frenchman has always had a decent grass court pedigree, but has been struggling to win matches before this week.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.29 Units (+ 3.87 Units yesterday)
The head to head is 2-2 between the players. Clement won their only meeting on grass at Wimbledon 3 years ago, but Cilic has won their 2 recent encounters and I expect him to do the same again.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 games vs Igor Kunitsyn: Juan Martin Del Potro is still looking to hone his grass court game, but I expect him to have far too much for Igor Kunitsyn today.
Del Potro has won their only 2 meetings, including on a grass court, and I think his power will be too much for the Russian when it is all said and done.
I do have two for you, the first of which is starting within an hour and the other later on in the day:
Queens
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games vs Arnaud Clement: Cilic has not been having a great season but I do expect his game to work well on the grass and I expect him to take care of the veteran.
Clement has done well this week, qualifying for the main draw and winning his 1st Round match. The Frenchman has always had a decent grass court pedigree, but has been struggling to win matches before this week.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 8.29 Units (+ 3.87 Units yesterday)
The head to head is 2-2 between the players. Clement won their only meeting on grass at Wimbledon 3 years ago, but Cilic has won their 2 recent encounters and I expect him to do the same again.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 5.5 games vs Igor Kunitsyn: Juan Martin Del Potro is still looking to hone his grass court game, but I expect him to have far too much for Igor Kunitsyn today.
Del Potro has won their only 2 meetings, including on a grass court, and I think his power will be too much for the Russian when it is all said and done.
Sunday, 22 May 2011
French Open Day 1 Picks
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 8.5 games vs Jan Hajek: This is obviously the home Grand Slam for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he is going to begin the tournament on the main show court against an opponent he has dominated in 1 previous meeting.
Tsonga has also showed some decent form in the last 2 Masters tournaments on clay courts in Madrid and Rome and faces a journeyman opponent that has struggled in the last 4 Grand Slams at this level.
Tsonga did struggle in the early rounds here last year, but this is the perfect draw for his game to grow into this tournament.
Marin Cilic - 8.5 games vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo: This looks like a mismatch as Ramirez Hidalgo is in the twilight of his career and has been struggling to win matches, just gaining the W in 2 of his last 8 matches.
Cilic is a solid player that has not had the best of seasons, but his game should be too big for the Spaniard here and I expect the big server to come through in 3 fairly easy sets.
Ernest Gulbis vs Blaz Kavcic, Adrian Mannarino vs Guillermo Rufin Double: Both of these guys are a little inconsistent with their play, but they are facing much weaker oppositiona and there looks to be enough about their games to come through, even if it takes 5 sets to do so.
MY PICKS DAY 1: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 (3 Units)
Marin Cilic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 (3 Units)
Ernest Gulbis and Adrian Mannarino Double @ 2.33 (2 Units)
Tsonga has also showed some decent form in the last 2 Masters tournaments on clay courts in Madrid and Rome and faces a journeyman opponent that has struggled in the last 4 Grand Slams at this level.
Tsonga did struggle in the early rounds here last year, but this is the perfect draw for his game to grow into this tournament.
Marin Cilic - 8.5 games vs Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo: This looks like a mismatch as Ramirez Hidalgo is in the twilight of his career and has been struggling to win matches, just gaining the W in 2 of his last 8 matches.
Cilic is a solid player that has not had the best of seasons, but his game should be too big for the Spaniard here and I expect the big server to come through in 3 fairly easy sets.
Ernest Gulbis vs Blaz Kavcic, Adrian Mannarino vs Guillermo Rufin Double: Both of these guys are a little inconsistent with their play, but they are facing much weaker oppositiona and there looks to be enough about their games to come through, even if it takes 5 sets to do so.
MY PICKS DAY 1: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 (3 Units)
Marin Cilic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 (3 Units)
Ernest Gulbis and Adrian Mannarino Double @ 2.33 (2 Units)
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