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Showing posts with label Michael Llodra. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Llodra. Show all posts

Monday, 29 August 2011

US Open Day 1 Picks

The schedule for Day 1 of the US Open was revised on Sunday evening as the effects of Hurricane Irena are still being felt up and down the East Coast.

Now on to the Day 1 Picks as the final Grand Slam of the year gets underway:

Marin Cilic - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: Marin Cilic had one of his best Grand Slam performances at this tournament when reaching the Quarter Final in 2009, but he has not progressed as much as he would have liked since then yet I do fancy him to get his US Open campaign off to a strong start against the young American.

Harrison has shown some real promise over the Summer by reaching Semi Finals in LA and Atlanta, but a heavy defeat at the hands of Mardy Fish and Victor Troicki suggest he still has some work to do against the bigger guns.

Harrison did surprise Ivan Ljubicic at this stage last year, but I think Cilic will be too strong and should cover the spread even if it takes 4 sets to win the match.


Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Richard Gasquet is having a decent season on the tour and has shown his class against the lesser opponents he has faced and I feel he will be able to do the same thing here.

Stakhovsky has not had a great season and his serve is erratic and can let him down in sets. He has been beaten in straight sets when exiting the last 2 Grand Slam events, although finished as a 3rd Round loser here last year.

Gasquet should have too much all around game for Stakhovsky and I expect him to come through in 3 sets with a break in the first 2 before running away with the 3rd to cover the handicap.


Treble; Michael Llodra vs Victor Hanescu, Ivo Karlovic vs Fernando Gonzalez and Radek Stepanek vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek have strong records against their opponents and have also been in stronger form than them.

Michael Llodra and Stepanek have also won matches against their respective opponents in the US Open and the treble looks value at over 2-1.


MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Treble; Michael Llodra, Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek @ 3.17 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Saturday, 25 June 2011

Wimbledon Day 6 Picks

Day 5 was yet another good day for us with the picks going 3-1 and Tomas Berdych well on his way to clearing the handicap before the rain came. Hopefully that wont disrupt the big Czech too much and he should grab the couple games he needs to move through the draw in straight sets.

The tournament is now beginning to heat up as the 4th Round takes shape- personally I am looking forward to the Andy Murray-Richard Gasquet match, although there are possibilities of seeing Rafael Nadal-Juan Martin Del Potro and Marion Bartoli-Serena Williams which makes Monday a great day for ticket holders.

Hopefully the form of the last couple of days can continue before we get to Middle Sunday. On that day I will recap the last week, giving my opinion of the big stories of the week as well as updating the progress of the last week's daily and outright picks.


Now on to Day 6 Picks:


Roger Federer -  7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: If this match had taken place in 2005, it would have been a real test for Roger Federer. Unfortunately for us David Nalbandian fans, our man has not really been in the best of form although I do expect him to raise his game against his old rival.

Federer has been serving magnificantly in recent weeks since the French Open began, and that could negate the pressure that Nalbandian will be able to put on the serve with his excellent returning game.

I expect the Argentine to keep it close for a while, but his game can break down when he gets behind and I believe Federer will get a 6-1/6-2 set under his belt to ensure this spread is covered.

Nalbandian's serve has always been a weak point of his game and I dont think he is consistent enough off the ground at this moment in time to cause problems for long enough in this match.


Michael Llodra - 4.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Yen-Hsun Lu has once again shown he can play on the grass courts after beating Viktor Troicki in the last Round in what was considered a big upset. This comes only a year after he reached the Quarter Final here after beating Andy Roddick in 5 sets.

However, Lu now faces a huge test in the form of Michael Llodra, a serve-volley player that is more than comfortable on the grass. Llodra has taken advantage of the draw to reach this stage and will be confident he can beat Lu.

That confidence comes from a 3-1 head to head record for Llodra against Lu. 2 of those wins took place on grass courts, Llodra winning all 4 sets competed for the loss of just 6 games.

Llodra will continue to put pressure on Lu throughout the match with his chip-charge on returns and I expect he will get through while covering the spread.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets vs Fernando Gonzalez: I have said it before on my twitter feed, but I will say it again here- it is really great to see Fernando Gonzalez back in action and making inroads in a Grand Slam. The Chilean has missed the majority of the last 10 months through injury and he had barely played before this tournament began.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came through a tough 4 setter against Grigor Dimitrov and was surprisingly insightful when admitting he is struggling to keep his composure to close out games. It was particularly surprising considering he reached the Final at Queens just 2 weeks ago.

Tsonga does go through some ups and downs during his matches and he has the tendency to lose concentration and thus lose sets, especially in these longer formats at Grand Slam level.

Gonzalez won their only previous meeting at the US Open in 2009 in 4 sets, but this is his toughest test since returning from injury so it would be a real shock if he gets through.

However, he can take advantage of any lapses in concentration by Tsonga and steal a set in the process of exiting the tournament.


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Petra Cetkovska: Petra Cetkovska fought valiantly to beat Agnieska Radwanska in the last Round, but she now faces another tough test in the form of Ana Ivanovic.

Ivanovic is definitely restoring her confidence since the lows of last season, and she has come through the first 2 Rounds with the loss of just 4 games. She has the big serve that gets her a number of free points and her heavy groundstrokes makes it hard for the Women who are ranked below her.

Cetkovska has needed 6 sets to get through her first 2 Rounds and could be a little fatigued after fighting back against Radwanska.

She also has to erase the memory of her 1 and only meeting with Ivanovic- they met in the 4th Round of the 2008 French Open and Ivanovic handed out 2 bagels.

While Ivanovic is not at that same level now, I do expect her to get through while covering the spread.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units) Still Running from Day 5 with Berdych leading 6-2, 6-4, 4-3 (*15-0)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 12.41 Units (+ 5.38 Units Day 5)

Thursday, 23 June 2011

Wimbledon Day 4 Picks

The first 3 days of this tournament have been hard work to say the least, with matches being delayed thanks to the weather, while a few shocking results have hit the picks. That does not mean we are falling behind, but the profit margin is hardly worth writing home about.

I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.

On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.

Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.


Now on to Day 4 Picks:


Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.

Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.

Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.


Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.

Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.

On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.

Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.


Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.

Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.

Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.


Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.

Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.

Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.

A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.


Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.

Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.

Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.


MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)

Tuesday, 7 June 2011

Tennis Picks June 7th 2011

So it was a good day yesteday with all both picks coming in thanks to all the players winning in straight sets.

There was some good news for the Queens tournament with the confirmation that both Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will take part, but Halle lost Roger Federer to the disappointment of the tournament director.

That once again shows the minefield in picking outright winners a week after a Grand Slam, especially with the short time between the French Open and Wimbledon.

Talking about Roger Federer, did anyone else find it amusing when he essentially said if he 'plays well', he beats Rafael Nadal. Now I am not downplaying what Federer has achieved in his career, but it is clear that he can be a little condescending to other players. Maybe someone will have the nerve to ask him if he has played badly in 6 of the 8 Grand Slam Finals where he has played Nadal, considering he has not beaten the Spaniard on such an occasion since 2007!

I will update my overall profit/loss at the end of the week rather than every day, but I will update weekly profit/losses when making new picks.


Queens
TREBLE: Andy Roddick vs Feliciano Lopez, Michael Llodra vs Julien Benneteau and Sam Querrey vs Rainer Schuettler: This is a pretty risky treble for the day at Queens club.

Andy Roddick has not played much competitive tennis in recent weeks, choosing to rest his shoulder during the clay court season so he could be right for the grass. He has been honing his grass court game in London for a few days now and also holds a 6-0 head to head over the dangerous Feliciano Lopez.

Michael Llodra's serve-volley game should fit perfectly with the grass courts and he did win Eastbourne last year and reached the Quarter Finals here in London. Julien Benneteau can certainly play on the surface, but has struggled for form in recent weeks.

Sam Querrey made a solid start to the defence of his title with an easy enough win over the talented Kei Nishikori, and I think he will have too much for the veteran Rainer Schuettler. Querrey leads the head to head 3-1 and also beat Schuettler here last year.


Kevin Anderson win vs Ivo Karlovic: Now I will say that Ivo Karlovic has the perfect game to be a danger on the grass courts, but I just feel Kevin Anderson is being underrated here.

Karlovic missed the grass court season last year, but has a 22-6 record in previous years. He has reached the last 8 in each of the last 3 times he has played at Queens so the question remains why am I picking Anderson?

The first reason is Karlovic has not been in the best of form this season since coming back from his injury and I am beginning to wonder if he has much left in the tank.

Add to this the fact Anderson is having his best season on the main tour and has the weapons to be effective on this surface and he has a live chance in a match that could be decided by 1 or 2 points in a tie break.


MY PICKS: Andy Roddick, Michael Llodra and Sam Querrey Treble @ 3.42 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Kevin Anderson win @ 2.45 Canbet (1 Unit)


WEEK UPDATE JUNE 6-12: + 4.42 Units