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Showing posts with label Radek Stepanek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Radek Stepanek. Show all posts

Monday, 29 August 2011

US Open Day 1 Picks

The schedule for Day 1 of the US Open was revised on Sunday evening as the effects of Hurricane Irena are still being felt up and down the East Coast.

Now on to the Day 1 Picks as the final Grand Slam of the year gets underway:

Marin Cilic - 4.5 games vs Ryan Harrison: Marin Cilic had one of his best Grand Slam performances at this tournament when reaching the Quarter Final in 2009, but he has not progressed as much as he would have liked since then yet I do fancy him to get his US Open campaign off to a strong start against the young American.

Harrison has shown some real promise over the Summer by reaching Semi Finals in LA and Atlanta, but a heavy defeat at the hands of Mardy Fish and Victor Troicki suggest he still has some work to do against the bigger guns.

Harrison did surprise Ivan Ljubicic at this stage last year, but I think Cilic will be too strong and should cover the spread even if it takes 4 sets to win the match.


Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Richard Gasquet is having a decent season on the tour and has shown his class against the lesser opponents he has faced and I feel he will be able to do the same thing here.

Stakhovsky has not had a great season and his serve is erratic and can let him down in sets. He has been beaten in straight sets when exiting the last 2 Grand Slam events, although finished as a 3rd Round loser here last year.

Gasquet should have too much all around game for Stakhovsky and I expect him to come through in 3 sets with a break in the first 2 before running away with the 3rd to cover the handicap.


Treble; Michael Llodra vs Victor Hanescu, Ivo Karlovic vs Fernando Gonzalez and Radek Stepanek vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek have strong records against their opponents and have also been in stronger form than them.

Michael Llodra and Stepanek have also won matches against their respective opponents in the US Open and the treble looks value at over 2-1.


MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 6.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Treble; Michael Llodra, Ivo Karlovic and Radek Stepanek @ 3.17 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 17th Cincinnati

It was a mixed bag yesterday in terms of the picks, and it leaves us with a slight deficit as we reach Day 3 of the tournament.

Only one of the big 4 has been in action so far, and that was Roger Federer with his impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro last night.

The former World Number 1 has opened up his section with that win and has shortened considerably in the outright market. Federer was impressive behind serve, one of the elements that let him down against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week, and it was clear he enjoys the conditions at this venue.

Today we will see the rest of the top 4 players in action in what looks like another busy day of tennis action:

Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs David Nalbandian: I am going to back the British Number 1 to make a much better start to the week than he did in Montreal and come through with a bit to spare.

Murray will be able to get a much better feel for this match than he did against Kevin Anderson as he won't be getting big bombs served at him and will be involved in many more rallies.

David Nalbandian is not the force of old and looked bad in losses against Stanislas Wawrinka and James Blake over the last couple of weeks. He has won a match here already this week, but I think he will give Murray too many chances and lose 6-3, 6-4.

Some may prefer backing Murray with a - 4 game headstart, but I think the price on - 4.5 games is tempting enough to give it a shot.


Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Barring a bad first service game, Feliciano Lopez showed how effective his serve can be on this surface when beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in 3 sets in the last Round.

He faces a difficult opponent in Kohlschreiber that can be erratic- one match he will look like a top 20 player, in others you struggle to see how he got into the top 100.

Lopez has a 3-0 head to head record against the German and I have a feeling we may see a flat performance from Kohlschreiber following his 3 set win over Andy Roddick in the last Round.


Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games vs Andrey Golubev: Radek Stepanek has shown he is clearly still in decent form, beating John Isner in the last Round and recently winning a hard court event in Washington.

He faces Andrey Golubev who stopped a 15 match losing run on the main tour in the last Round when beating Stanislas Wawrinka. I think Golubev took advantage of the Swiss mans exertions from Montreal and he will not get that luxury against Stepanek who is adept at playing on hard courts and has the variation and character to both frustrate and anger opponents.

Stepanek has a 3-1 head to head record over Golubev and his wins have been relatively straight forward. I think we may see a 6-4, 6-4 win for him tonight.


Gilles Simon - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: I am backing Gilles Simon to win this match as he faces an opponent that looked a little fatigued in his win in the 1st Round following a run to the Semi Finals in Montreal last week.

We have seen in the past those players that do well in Canada and then falter in Cincinnati and I think Tipsarevic may be ripe for the taking here.

Simon has the winning mentality recently, albeit in a clay court event, and has beaten Tipsarevic in their 2 career meetings.


Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Francesca Schiavone is one of the toughest competitors on the WTA Tour and I feel her ability to chase down a lot of balls (excuse me?!!) gives her the edge to break down the Kirilenko game.

That seems to stand up to the 4-1 head to head record Schiavone holds over Kirilenko and the fact that Kirilenko has had a slight injury in recent weeks will not aid her cause.

Schiavone has won their last 2 meetings without dropping a set, including in Kirilenko's home country, and I think she will prove too strong again.


Serena Williams - 2.5 games vs Sam Stosur: The odds here are clearly much lower because Serena Williams was showing signs of fatigue following her recent successes when beating Lucie Hradecka in the last Round.

However, the best Women's player in the World said in her press conference that she had arrived in Cincinnati the night before and she expects to play better today.

Stosur is another who played a lot of tennis in reaching the Final in Toronto last week but she was easily beaten on that occasion following a tight first set. The Australian has also been suffering with a slight wrist problem, especially when hitting her backhand strokes, and I think Williams will confirm her superiority over her today.


Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games vs Jie Zheng: I am going to back the former World Number 1, Jelena Jankovic, to come through this test against a player that has fallen from her best level that took her to a Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009.

Jie Zheng has won 3 Rounds here already so she is in form and she did push Serena Williams to 3 sets last week, but Jelena Jankovic has an impressive 4-1 head to head record against her opponent and she has won the last 3 meetings without dropping a set.

Jankovic has not had a good time on the hard courts this Summer so far, but she does adapt well to the faster surfaces and I expect her to come through tonight.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 0.48 Units

Tuesday, 9 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 9th

It was a decent enough day yesterday for the picks, although the happenings in London are both frustrating and angering me beyond belief. I really hope it will be the last night I am glued to my television watching the News channels rather than the tennis in Montreal or the football.

On to the Picks:

Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: I actually took something similar when they played in a Davis Cup match after Wimbledon, and I still cannot believe I failed to collect on that occasion.

Richard Gasquet is the stronger hard court player and his serve is perhaps a little more consistent than Mayer's. The lack of playing time since that Davis Cup tie is a real concern when it comes to backing Gasquet, but Mayer has not been in great form and I expect the Frenchman will come through in straight sets.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: The first match after a long break can be tough for players, but I think Andy Murray will take full advantage of Kevin Anderson if the South African plays like he did yesterday against Pablo Andujar.

Murray is a far better returner than the Spaniard, yet Andujar was creating plenty of opportunities on the Anderson serve, and it is also true that Anderson has been struggling in recent weeks.

There is a slight worry that Murray will be a little 'cold' coming in from a lack of competitive tennis, but I fancy him to grab a double break in one set as he goes on to win in straights.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games vs Marin Cilic: Juan Martin Del Potro was serving big yesterday and I expect he will put a lot of pressure on Marin Cilic, and especially the serving problems the Croatian has been having.

I fancy Del Potro to win with a break of serve in each set and he should cover this spread if he is serving first.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games vs Nikolay Davydenko: The simple reason for this pick is the Serbian is far too good defensively and offensively off the ground for the Nikolay Davydenko of today and I expect him to win with a bit to spare. Davydenko has struggled to win matches this season and his serve gives far too many chances for his opponent so I can see a 6-4, 6-2 win for Djokovic here.


Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games vs Tobias Kamke: Fernando Verdasco is not the most trustworthy of players at the moment and he has failed to reach the heights of 2009, but I expect he will have far too much for Tobias Kamke here.

I can see Verdasco winning this with a double break in the 2nd set after winning a tight 1st set and securing a 6-4, 6-1 win.


Radek Stepanek vs Feliciano Lopez: The head to head is 8-1 in favour of Stepanek and the Czech player is coming in off a morale boosting title win in Washington. Feliciano Lopez has been playing a lot of clay court tennis and could be caught out on the faster surface against a player that is clearly on form.

My one concern is whether Stepanek has enough left in the tank to pull the win here after a long week in Washington. However, he was not as affected by the adverse weather as others, so I expect he should have enough to win this match, although it could be a tight one.


MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.71 Units

Sunday, 7 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 7th Washington and San Diego

Agnieska Radwanska reached the Final so we have a 9.00 pick running on her today to win the tournament against Vera Zvonareva.

John Isner just failed to get through to the Final in Washington as he lost a final set tie break to Gael Monfils but fortunately we covered the outright pick by taking Monfils yesterday.

I only have a couple of Picks today, and one of those is a cover:

Vera Zvonareva vs Agnieska Radwanska: I would only recommend taking this if you were on Radwanska outright at the start of the week. We have already covered our stake with the Polish player reaching the Final, but I am going to play 4 Units on Zvonareva to take away some of the profit on a Radwanska win.

Zvonareva has a strong head to head record against Radwanska and I have a feeling she will win today and at least this way we can earn some profit from the match regardless of the outcome.


Gael Monfils - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: As I said yesterday, whoever won the match between Monfils and John Isner was bound to be the favourite in this Final and I do believe Monfils will go on and win the tournament.

He has been serving well and is used to playing the awkward style of Radek Stepanek so there should not be any surprises for him here. Stepanek is playing well himself this week, but this is by far the biggest test he will face and I can see Monfils' speed grinding him down in straight sets.

Monfils has won the last two matches between the players in straight sets and holds a 5-2 overall record. I imagine that will be 6-2 after the Final.


MY PICKS: Vera Zvonareva @ 1.53 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 2.1 Units

Wednesday, 3 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 3rd Washington and San Diego

I couldn't help but feel a little disappointed in following the David Nalbandian loss to James Blake last night- Nalbandian was my favourite player in the early part of the last decade and one that I felt has not quite reached the heights that his talent has deserved, either through injury or not quite finishing the job at key times.

His biggest moment came in 2005 when he overturned a 2 set deficit against Roger Federer in the ATP End of Year Championships, a remarkable feat when considering where Federer was in his career.

Nalbandian remains the best player I have seen in my lifetime that failed to win a Grand Slam, which is a real disappointment considering how close he came in a couple of different tournaments.

He should have won the US Open in 2003 when leading Andy Roddick 2-0 in the Semi Final before the American fought through and went on to win his only Grand Slam title.

Nalbandian was also a Finalist at Wimbledon in 2002, perhaps a little too early in his career at that time,  and in 2004 he was the big favourite to beat Gaston Gaudio in the Semi Final at the French Open before losing to the eventual winner.

Time looks to have passed Nalbandian by when it comes to a singles Grand Slam win, but I will be cheering on Argentina in the Davis Cup and hope he has one more big achievement left in him. Twice he has helped lead Argentina to the Final, but this year he will have the additional support of Juan Martin Del Potro.

He still remains an exceptional player to watch and I have been fortunate to see him in action live on a couple of occasions this year- hopefully he will be back in the UK for tournaments next season too.

Now on to the Picks:

Double; Radek Stepanek vs Wayne Odesnik and Jurgen Melzer vs Donald Young: There is a lot of choice today from the ATP tournament in Washington, but there were too many question marks for me to make too many picks.

This is one double I picked out from the coupon which I feel should come in- Radek Stepanek was serving very well in his 1st Round win over Philipp Petzschner and perhaps should have won the match in straight sets and he faces a player that has only returned to the tour in recent months and comes into the tournament as a 'Lucky Loser'.

Wayne Odesnik has recently won a Challenger event on the hard courts but was beaten in straight sets by Rajeev Ram in the qualifying here and Stepanek represents a significant step up of recent competition.

Stepanek is coming to the end of his career but he remains competitive and has had a good time on the hard courts in previous years. He also holds a winning record over Odesnik in the head to head and I think his chances have been underestimated by the layers.

Jurgen Melzer has not had a great season following last years exploits and he also had the additional problem of having to move from the clay to the hard courts. These first matches on a new surface can be tough, but I think Melzer can take down the underachieving Donald Young.

Young took advantage of an overmatched opponent in the 1st Round, but recent defeats to Michael Russell and Alex Bogdanovic do not really inspire confidence in him.

Melzer has also won both previous meetings with Young, one of those on a hard court, and I think the Austrian will be too strong here.


Ryan Harrison vs Victor Troicki: Ryan Harrison has played a lot of tennis, with success, in the last couple of weeks and was forced to go the distance in beating Mischa Zverev yesterday. However, he plays an opponent that has only played a couple of Davis Cup ties since Wimbledon and he could catch him cold.

Troicki is having a good season and it took Novak Djokovic to stop his runs at Miami and Indian Wells earlier this year. He didn't have a great Summer Swing here last year and was beaten in this Round in Washington when falling to Mardy Fish.

Harrison has not beaten someone of the level of Troicki over the last couple of weeks, but I will have a small interest that he can cause a surprise against an undercooked opponent.


Sofia Arvidsson vs Alberta Brianti: This is a pick for the minimum stakes but I think the wrong player has been set as the underdog in the match.

I think Alberta Brianti has been set as the favourite after she beat Flavia Pennetta in the last Round, but I actually think Sofia Arvidsson has the better hard court pedigree.

Brianti has lost matches against Sophie Ferguson, Heather Watson and Noppawan Lertcheewakarn on the hard courts this year and she was beaten in the 1st Round of a Challenger tournament in the Bronx last year, a tournament in which her opponent reached the Final.

Arvidsson has won both previous matches against Brianti in straight sets, and that includes a win on the hard courts in Miami last year.

Arvidsson is not someone to back with any kind of certainty but, as I said above, I think she should be the favourite in this match.


MY PICKS: Double; Radek Stepanek and Jurgen Melzer @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sofia Arvidsson @ 2.18 Pinnacle (1 Unit)




WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 2.5 Units