US Open Tennis Outright Picks (Women's Tournament)

All those affected on the East Coast of the US by Hurricane Irena, please keep yourselves and your families safe.

I decided to split my Men's outright picks and Women's outright picks into two different posts as the length may have been a little too long and I hope this makes it easier reading. The Men's tournament looks like being the more interesting one as to how it will develop, but I still think there could be something to find from the Women's draw.

Women's Tournament

I don't think I was close to being the only person whose first thought when the draw was released was to find where the favourite, and Number 28 seed, Serena Williams had landed. After a year out of the game, her ranking plummeted to 175 after her exit at Wimbledon, but she has played nothing short of being the best female player on the planet as she won back to back tournaments in Stanford and Toronto.

That meant she pushed herself up to one of the 32 seeded places, but her lower ranking meant there was going to be a couple of unfortunate players that would have to meet Williams far earlier than they would have wanted.

Serena landed in the 2nd quarter of the draw and her unfortunate 3rd round opponent will be Victoria Azarenka, a player that would have been considered one of the favourites before the draw. Azarenka was beaten comfortably when they met in Toronto a couple of weeks ago and she has lost 5 of the 6 times she has met Williams and I cannot see that changing.

A potential match with Ana Ivanovic in the 4th round would hold no fears for Williams if she does overcome Azarenka, although Ivanovic's fellow Serb, Jelena Jankovic, is a potential Quarter Final opponent for Williams.

Williams and Jankovic are 4-4 in their previous 8 meetings, although Williams did win when they met in the Final here in 2008. Jankovic has been in good form having reached the Final in Cincinnati last time out, but she is so inconsistent and there is a chance she will not make it through to an awkward Quarter Final for Williams.

The top half of Williams' section is where the Number 1 seed Caroline Wozniacki sits, but there is no way I can back the Danish player to have enough to beat Serena in a Semi Final and there may even be enough to suggest she doesn't make it out of the quarter.

Na Li is also in this section, but she has not been the same player since winning the French Open as expectations have increased on her and opponents have been raising their games against her. The likes of Andrea Petkovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Daniela Hantuchova may all have an impact in this part of the draw, but I don't trust too many of those players so will move on.

The Number 2 seed in the draw is Vera Zvonareva and she will be hoping to go one better than last year when she lost in the Final against Kim Clijsters. I expect the Russian to get through the first 3 rounds, but things definitely get murkier for her there.

Players she can meet in the 4th round include Venus Williams, Dominika Cibulkova or Sabine Lisicki- all 3 of those players have doubts surrounding their ability to reach that stage. Williams has been suffering with a viral infection meaning she has not played since Wimbledon, and could be vulnerable in her potential 2nd round match with Lisicki.

Lisicki has played a lot of tennis recently having won in Dallas last week so it could be interesting to see how she goes. However, she has lost all 3 meetings with Zvonareva so last year's runner up could be in line to make her way through to the Quarter Final.

There is enough doubt about Zvonareva, even though she has pretty well over the Summer US hard court swing and the prices are plenty short on her chances that I would suggest avoiding her.

The final section of the draw has 3 top players that could go deep in the draw- Petra Kvitova, Maria Sharapova and Agnieska Radwanska.

Kvitova has not been the same player since her maiden Grand Slam win at Wimbledon in July and she has not performed that well over the last couple of tournaments that suggests Lucie Safarova could cause plenty of problems for her in the 3rd round.

One player who could take advantage of that is Agnieska Radwanska, as long as she can beat her sister in the 1st round. Radwanska has proven her ability to perform on the hard courts by reaching the Semi Final in Toronto and winning in San Diego and I am not too concerned with her early exit at New Haven last week.

Radwanska will face a tough 3rd round match with Yanina Wickmayer, but the Belgian has not been in great form and lost her last match against Radwanska. The 4th round match with Kvitova/Safarova is one I think the consistent Radwanska could win and then she would have to face a big Quarter Final against Maria Sharapova.

Sharapova has won 6 matches in a row against Radwanska and would be the big favourite in the contest, but I think the odds are just on the side of the Pole in the outright market to take advantage if Sharapova exits the tournament early.

It is hard to look beyond Serena Williams for the tournament and I will make her my big outright pick. She looked far and away the best player when winning in Stanford and Toronto and I don't think her early opponents are capable of stopping her.

Victoria Azarenka may be one who could surprise her, but she was easily beaten in Toronto by Williams and I can't see things changing too much over the next 2 weeks.

The other player I will pick is a small interest on Agnieska Radwanska who has looked in fine form in recent weeks and could be the latest surprise finalist in the Women's tournaments at Grand Slam level. She is ultra-consistent, but lacks the weapon that can hurt opponents and I fear for her match with Maria Sharapova if she reaches that stage.

In saying that, the odds in the outright market look a little wrong and I think the Pole is worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams @ 2.63 Paddy Power (5 Units)

Agnieska Radwanska @ 41.00 BetFred (0.5 Unit e/w) E/W pays out at 0.5 the odds if Radwanska reaches the Final

Tennis Picks August 12th

The most frustrating element of this week has been how close some of these picks have been to winning, yet I find myself in a very bad position.

Both tournaments in Toronto and Montreal have seen a huge number of surprise results, and I guess that has to be expected considering a lot of the players are playing in their first events since Wimbledon. Still, I expect better from myself and am hoping I can have a strong end to the week to salvage some pride.

Now on to the Picks:

Sam Stosur - 3.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: If you had blindly backed Roberta Vinci in every match this week, you would have + 8.52 Units for every 1 Unit you have staked- it has been more than a surprise to see Vinci still participating in a tournament after struggling on the hard courts for much of her career.

I backed Ana Ivanovic to beat Vinci yesterday, but I am going back to the well with Sam Stosur, a player that looked in fine fettle in her win over Na Li yesterday.

Stosur plays her game with a lot of spin and that could cause problems for the 5 foot 4 inch Vinci, especially if she gets as much off the court as the Australian did yesterday. The hard courts should favour Stosur's game much more and I will expect her to come through in straight sets, 7-5 6-3.


Agnieska Radwanska vs Andrea Petkovic: I am a little concerned with the amount of tennis Radwanska has played recently, but she showed she is in fine form after winning the tournament in San Diego last week. The Polish Number 1 beat Petkovic en route to the trophy and I expect her consistent game will be too much for the German again.

Petkovic took advantage of an error-ridden game from Petra Kvitova yesterday, but she has lost all 3 previous meetings with Radwanska and finds it hard to break down the defence the Pole employs.

This could go the distance, but I think the edge will be with Radwanska at the end of the day.


Mardy Fish - 2 games vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Mardy Fish has been in fine form during the US hard court swing, winning the tournament in Atlanta before reaching the Final in LA, and I think he is favourite to come through the bottom half of the draw since Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal exited early.

Wawrinka has done well to reach this Quarter Final, but I can't shake the feeling he has taken advantage of a very straight forward draw especially after Murray went out.

I expect Fish will have a little too much for Wawrinka in this match, although it is possible it goes the distance. His serve is a little more solid, while he has the knowledge to end points quickly at the net. I would guess the pressure of keeping up with Fish will eventually be the difference and Fish will get through.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games vs Nicolas Almagro: While we saw Ivan Dodig and Kevin Anderson falter after knocking out players in the top 4 of the World Rankings, I do not expect the same of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is finally beginning to play with the belief that he should be much higher in the rankings himself.

Many would have been watching out for Juan Martin Del Potro as a dark horse for the US Open, but I have now been converted into thinking Tsonga can do enough to make a serious splash at that event.

His win over Roger Federer showed his serve is working very effectively while his returning game has come on leaps and bounds in the last 8 months.

Nicolas Almagro is a tough competitor, but one who is much happier with the clay under his feet. He has a big serve, but his groundstrokes can be inconsistent and I think that is where Tsonga will have the edge.

Importantly, Tsonga has also won all 4 of their previous meetings, the last 3 all being on clay courts which I would have expected to suit Almagro a little more. I think Tsonga will come through tonight 6-3, 6-4 with a break in each set.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Galina Voskoboeva: Galina Voskoboeva is having a huge week- after qualifying for this event, she has gone on to beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova and has lost just 2 sets in her 5 matches this week.

This could be her toughest test of the week against Victoria Azarenka who has been playing some good stuff this week, losing just 3 games in 4 sets played. I expect the World Number 4 to have too much for Voskoboeva, and to run away with the match after a tight first set.


MY PICKS: Sam Stosur - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 2 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 6.41 Units

Tennis Picks August 7th Washington and San Diego

Agnieska Radwanska reached the Final so we have a 9.00 pick running on her today to win the tournament against Vera Zvonareva.

John Isner just failed to get through to the Final in Washington as he lost a final set tie break to Gael Monfils but fortunately we covered the outright pick by taking Monfils yesterday.

I only have a couple of Picks today, and one of those is a cover:

Vera Zvonareva vs Agnieska Radwanska: I would only recommend taking this if you were on Radwanska outright at the start of the week. We have already covered our stake with the Polish player reaching the Final, but I am going to play 4 Units on Zvonareva to take away some of the profit on a Radwanska win.

Zvonareva has a strong head to head record against Radwanska and I have a feeling she will win today and at least this way we can earn some profit from the match regardless of the outcome.


Gael Monfils - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: As I said yesterday, whoever won the match between Monfils and John Isner was bound to be the favourite in this Final and I do believe Monfils will go on and win the tournament.

He has been serving well and is used to playing the awkward style of Radek Stepanek so there should not be any surprises for him here. Stepanek is playing well himself this week, but this is by far the biggest test he will face and I can see Monfils' speed grinding him down in straight sets.

Monfils has won the last two matches between the players in straight sets and holds a 5-2 overall record. I imagine that will be 6-2 after the Final.


MY PICKS: Vera Zvonareva @ 1.53 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 2.1 Units

Tennis Picks August 6th Washington and San Diego

One down, two to go- that is how the outright picks are going as we get down to the Final 4 in both of these tournaments this week.

Marcos Baghdatis was a huge disappointment yesterday as he fell in straight sets to Donald Young. I warned myself that it could be one of those weeks for Young, but did not heed that advice and still fancied Baghdatis to get the job done. He had 3 set points in the 2nd set but failed to convert- more disappointing was the fact he failed to get the ball in play on any of those points before falling in the tie break.

It was more frustrating considering he faced Radek Stepanek in the Semi Final if he had got through and he could have really boosted the coffers as a 19.00 shot outright at the start of the week.

Now we have John Isner and Agnieska Radwanska left in the outright as the tournaments come to a close.

The Picks:

Andrea Petkovic vs Agnieska Radwanska: Anyone who followed my outrights at the start of the week know we will win 4 units if Radwanska makes it through to the Final, but the Polish player had called for a trainer in her last match with Daniela Hantuchova and has since admitted that she considered pulling out of the match.

Petkovic has become a popular figure in the stands as she follows victories with the 'Petko Dance' that became famous when she did it for a joke last year. She has been solid on the hard courts and has had a routine path through to the Semi Final, but generally has faltered when coming up against the better players on the tour with losses to Maria Sharapova, Na Li and Marion Bartoli on the hard courts this year.

Radwanska is a solid hard court player herself and reached the Final here last year so obviously must like the conditions. She came back from a horror start against Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round by overturning a 0-6 first set to win in 3 sets. However, I am still concerned about her shoulder and whether she wants to fight through.

Radwanska also holds a 2-0 head to head over Petkovic, winning both matches on the hard courts of Tokyo in the last 2 seasons. Personally, I thought Radwanska would be the favourite, but the injury has  me concerned and I will cover my outright here.


Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games vs Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic is apparently still having a little bit of trouble with her wrist, and she now faces a real competitor in the form of Vera Zvonareva.

The Russian is in good form having won a hard court tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of weeks ago and her 3 set win over Sabine Lasicki is impressive, especially the focus she had in the match.

Ivanovic has won through in straight sets in every match this week, but she is still capable of throwing in a stinker and she will be under more pressure against a quality opponent today.

The head to head is 4-4, but it is Zvonareva that has won the last 2 meetings, although they have not played since March 2009. Zvonareva remains the stronger player and I think she will come through with a break in each set to record a straight sets victory.


Gael Monfils vs John Isner: This is another pick for those that followed the outright picks at the start of the week- we took Isner at 10.00 to win the tournament so will be due 4.5 Units if he makes it through to the Final.

I am going to put a couple of units on Monfils here to cover the outright as the Frenchman has played well this week and the lottery of tie breaks is not worth the stress. Whoever wins this match will be the big favourite to win the tournament on Sunday.

As for personal opinion, I think Monfils is overestimated in the match to win, especially the way Isner can serve in tie breaks. If I had no outrights running, I would suggest the value is on the American.


MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.72 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 1.66 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.58 Units

Tennis Outright Picks August 1st-7th

The US Open series continues this week with the ATP 500 Event in Washington and the WTA Tour moves to San Diego, while over in Europe the last of the clay events following Wimbledon begins in Austria.

We still await the big players on the ATP tour to make their first appearances in the Summer, but with the Montreal Masters beginning next week, we can be sure their preparations are going strong.


ATP Washington
With most of the top 10 MIA for this tournament, it leaves it wide open for a few players to make a run at a tournament worth quite a few ranking points. The favourite for the tournament is unsurprisingly Mardy Fish, a player that has recently won in Atlanta and is in the Final in Los Angeles tonight.


I won't be backing the Number 1 American this week simply because of the amount of tennis he has played this week and I am not sure if he will even travel the length on the country with bigger fish (pardon the pun) to fry in the next few weeks.


Still, just because I won't be backing Fish this week does not mean I will be finding someone in his section to back instead. The likes of Fernando Verdasco, Nikolay Davydenko and Jarkko Nieminen are all seeded in this section and make their hard court debuts this Summer yet none of those can be trusted on recent form.


One player who may make the most of the Fish half of the draw is the Number 7 seeded Marcos Baghdatis although he is yet another player that has a few question marks surrounding him. Baghdatis was knocked out in his first match last week in LA to Yen-Hsun Lu and has been an early loser in previous matches in the States this season at Miami and Indian Wells. 


Baghdatis has course form here in Washington as he finished Runner Up last season and he might be able to make hay if he can get through a potential 2nd Round meeting with Somdev Devvarman, a player that beat Baghdatis in straight sets at Indian Wells.


The route through to the Semi Final would see him face Thomaz Bellucci in the 3rd Round and a potential Quarter Final with either Xavier Malisse or Jurgen Melzer.


On the other half of the draw, there doesn't seem like a lot of choices to be had with the best players all seeming to have been placed in the bottom section.


There we have John Isner, another former player that has reached the Final here in Washington before although he does have a tough looking draw in the early Rounds.


Isner is seeded to avoid Round 1, and then faces a very winnable match. The 3rd Round is where the potential problems arise as he is down to meet either last years Champion, David Nalbandian, or the in-form James Blake. The former will present more problems for Isner with his superior returning game, but has not played any tennis since Wimbledon, while Blake and Isner had a tight match in Atlanta recently that was won by Isner in 3 sets.


It is slightly concerning that Isner had a few issues with his shoulder in Atlanta, but he has had a few days off and will have a couple more before his 2nd Round match.


Overall, this looks like a tough tournament to pick outright, but I will back those two players I have mentioned and hope one of those can give us a run.




WTA San Diego
This is quite a solid field this week fresh off Stanford and there are a number of players that will feel they can have a big week.

The market is being dominated by a few single priced favourites and I am going to pick one of those as an each way shout.

My pick is in what I consider to be the weaker 2nd half of the draw and is going to be Agnieska Radwanska, last years beaten Finalist.

Radwanska is the Number 3 seed here this week and was a Quarter Finalist in Stanford last week before being beaten by Sabine Lisicki in 3 sets.

The Polish player should be able to negotiate the 2nd and 3rd Rounds of the tournament without too many issues before a potential Quarter Final with Daniela Hantuchova- again Radwanska should have the edge over a player she has beaten 3 of the last 4 times they have met and she also holds a win over Hantuchova from this tournament last year.

The potential Semi Final opponent is less clear as that is a tough section to pick from, and whoever she meets could have had to play a lot of tennis up to that point in hot weather.

The other side of the draw provides some big threats in the forms of Vera Zvonareva, a recent winner in Baku, Sabine Lisicki, a Semi Finalist last week in Stanford, and Dominika Cibulkova. All 3 of those players are in a section meaning only 1 will make the Semi Final and it looks like a tough section to predict again.

In saying that, the odds on Zvonareva and Lisicki look plenty short considering their opposition and I would rather be on Radwanska at the same odds in what looks like a clearer path through.


MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 19.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)
John Isner @ 10.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)