This has to have been one of the more 'headline-making' days during the course of the entire tennis season so far as news story after news story made the rounds before the surprise exit of Rafael Nadal in the Second Round of the tournament.
The day began with the sports pages all talking about Gilles Simon who had made the comment that Women do not deserve equal pay at the Grand Slams as he felt the Men were bringing in more coverage and thus should be reflected in the payroll scale. It was interesting as the Frenchman has just been elected to join the ATP Player Council for the next two years so is clearly someone that has the respect of his peers.
You got the normal reaction from some who will criticise anyone that is not 'politically correct' in any statements they make (these same people are also the ones most vocal about the lack of characters in sports these days, yet won't want anyone to rock the boat with anything they have to say to the press). Others shrugged their shoulders, while it was obvious that Simon was going to be grilled in his Press Conference following his match with Xavier Malisse.
Simon has also been criticised by some of the female players on the Tour, but he has been fighting his corner and openly stated that every other male player actually feels the same way.
What's my take on the matter? I actually semi-agree with Simon if I am honest... I don't think there should be level pay on the Grand Slam level as the Men play best of five sets and so should be given more money for essentially doing more work. HOWEVER, I do think some of the Masters events, like Miami and Indian Wells for example, that have Men and Women events should actually make the prize money the same as they do the same amount of work.
Some of the players suggested that TV ratings should determine which of the two Tours deserve more money, but that makes no sense as it swings in roundabouts where both have the edge at different times.
I do think the WTA Tour should be pushing for their matches to be extended to best of five at the Grand Slam level though to make this argument moot. I keep hearing how the Women work just as hard as the Men, so I don't think there will be a fitness issue, although it may be tough for tournaments to be completed on time if there are too many matches going the distance and lasting for a few hours.
That shouldn't be an argument against extending the Women matches to best of five though, and I think it would make a lot of sense for them to do so for the Grand Slams. It would differentiate the Slams from the other tournaments, as it does for the ATP Tour currently, and I actually think it would make the Women matches more exciting as more momentum shifts means more drama.
This is just a personal view, but this sounds like an issue that may just be under the spotlight again.
Andy Murray got through to the Third Round today and later drama means there will be growing expectation on the British Number 1 to reach his first Wimbledon Final. However, the biggest story coming out of his match was the Press Conference given by Ivo Karlovic in which he essentially said he was 'cheated' out of a win by a number of foot faults that were called against him.
There were 11 foot faults in all and, as Karlovic told the media, they all seemed to come at big moments in the match and this is a definite controversy that needs to be nipped in the bud immediately if the reputation of the tournament is going to be kept intact.
Someone needs to view the video of the foot faults ASAP and prove that they were made- the big issue is that foot faults are generally ignored these days so something needs to be done as to why so many were called today.
I am sure someone will have checked the video by the time you read this, but the 'integrity' of the tournament will be at stake if it is proved that the line judges were making mistakes in calling them over and over... What can they do if that was the case anyway?
There may be fines and there may be suspensions, but a player has been knocked out of the tournament now and this has to be settled so there are no other issues like this going forward. It was a stunning comment by Karlovic today and one that will need to be resolved- I also cannot wait for the reaction he gets when he goes out to play doubles tomorrow morning.
Finally, the drama I talked about above was the fact that Rafael Nadal has been knocked out of the tournament by a player ranked at Number 100 in the World- this is also the lowest ranked player that has beaten Nadal on the Tour and it was a stunning achievement from Lukas Rosol.
Nadal was outhit by Rosol, but he must have been cursing his misfortune of having to play in an indoor court against an opponent that was hitting monster serves and playing some lights out tennis. It was simply some stunning tennis from Rosol and he didn't seem to think about what he was about to achieve as he served out in the fifth set with two aces to wrap up the game.
The tennis played was once-in-a-lifetime stuff and this was probably the biggest surprise I have witnessed in the Grand Slams (in the Men's draw) since Robin Soderling beat Nadal at the French Open in 2009.
There were plenty of similarities to that match in my mind as I continued to wait for the moment when Rosol would make a couple of mistakes and open the door for the Spaniard, but it didn't come and Rosol was a worthy winner.
The expectations on Andy Murray will have increased as that seems to have opened up the bottom half of the draw, but I think the real beneficiary may be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has nothing to fear from his Quarter of the draw.
Murray still has a couple of tough matches to negotiate before he gets to the Semi Finals, while Tsonga seems to have a clear run in all honesty and the Frenchman may just get a chance to prove he was right in saying he can beat Novak Djokovic on grass having pushed him so hard at the French Open.
Random thought: After seeing how the Nadal match finished, how much will Roger Federer be begging for rain on Semi Final day next Friday if he has Novak Djokovic as his opponent?
Day 5 Picks:
Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Janko Tipsarevic has lost his last two matches against Mikhail Youzhny, but the last of those came back in 2010 and I think the careers of these two players have gone in opposite directions since then and the Serb World Number 8 is likely to be too strong this time.
Tipsarevic has been serving pretty effectively during this tournament and I think he is enjoying the faster conditions that seem to be in operation at the moment. He has also played on this court before in the event and should be used to his surroundings unlike Youzhny who has been placed off the show courts.
The Russian is still a tough prospect and has moved through the draw without any real worries so far, but this is a marked rise in quality of opponent and Youzhny has also had an issue in protecting his own serve so far this season.
It wouldn't be a massive surprise if the match did indeed go into four sets, but I do like Tipsarevic coming through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Nicolas Almagro: My big concern about this match is the fact that Nicolas Almagro has a 3-0 head to head record against Richard Gasquet and I know the Frenchman can sometimes find it tough to escape the mental aspect of matches.
However, I think Gasquet is definitely the better grass court player of the two and I think he will eventually be able to show that off.
Both have been effective behind serve for much of the tournament so far, but it is Almagro who has been forced to spend more time on the court and that can come back to haunt a player especially if they are to fall behind in the match.
The players are likely to be showing off two of the best backhands on the court (expect the commentators to cream over that fact at least ten times during the course of the match), but Gasquet is a former Semi Finalist here and I think the grass court pedigree he has will be the difference.
This is possibly going to four sets, but I will look for Gasquet to be the player making his way into the Fourth Round on Monday.
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is a fascinating match, but it is one that I think Sabine Lisicki can come through.
Sloane Stephens is an up and coming player on the WTA Tour, but the young American doesn't have the same grass court pedigree as the German who reached the Semi Final here last season and that may just make the difference in this one.
Stephens has performed well this season as she looks to get up the Rankings, but I think she has come up a little short against some of the better players and Lisicki, on a grass court, does fall into that category as far as I am concerned.
Some may be concerned that Lisicki had to win a long third set to get to this match, but take a look at what she did last year- Lisicki had to come from a set behind to win 8-6 in the third against Na Li and then went on and comfortably won her Third Round match.
I don't expect it to be that easy, but a 6-4, 6-4 win for Lisicki would not be a big surprise.
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games v Arantxa Rus: I am going for the occasion to be a little too much for Arantxa Rus in this one having caused one of the surprises of the tournaments when she beat Samantha Stosur in three sets.
Shuai Peng is a decent grass court player, reaching the Fourth Round here last season, and I think the Chinese player can be a little too consistent for Rus in this one.
It wouldn't be the first time that a player causing a surprise is then beaten in the next match they play, while Rus has not really had a deep run in any of the grass court tournaments she has previously played.
The lefty serve may cause Peng a few early problems in all honesty, but I think she can get in front once she has the hang of that and come through possibly 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets @ 1.85 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 9-7, + 5.72 Units (31 Units Staked)
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Showing posts with label Gilles Simon. Show all posts
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Friday, 29 June 2012
Wednesday, 17 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 17th Cincinnati
It was a mixed bag yesterday in terms of the picks, and it leaves us with a slight deficit as we reach Day 3 of the tournament.
Only one of the big 4 has been in action so far, and that was Roger Federer with his impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro last night.
The former World Number 1 has opened up his section with that win and has shortened considerably in the outright market. Federer was impressive behind serve, one of the elements that let him down against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week, and it was clear he enjoys the conditions at this venue.
Today we will see the rest of the top 4 players in action in what looks like another busy day of tennis action:
Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs David Nalbandian: I am going to back the British Number 1 to make a much better start to the week than he did in Montreal and come through with a bit to spare.
Murray will be able to get a much better feel for this match than he did against Kevin Anderson as he won't be getting big bombs served at him and will be involved in many more rallies.
David Nalbandian is not the force of old and looked bad in losses against Stanislas Wawrinka and James Blake over the last couple of weeks. He has won a match here already this week, but I think he will give Murray too many chances and lose 6-3, 6-4.
Some may prefer backing Murray with a - 4 game headstart, but I think the price on - 4.5 games is tempting enough to give it a shot.
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Barring a bad first service game, Feliciano Lopez showed how effective his serve can be on this surface when beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in 3 sets in the last Round.
He faces a difficult opponent in Kohlschreiber that can be erratic- one match he will look like a top 20 player, in others you struggle to see how he got into the top 100.
Lopez has a 3-0 head to head record against the German and I have a feeling we may see a flat performance from Kohlschreiber following his 3 set win over Andy Roddick in the last Round.
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games vs Andrey Golubev: Radek Stepanek has shown he is clearly still in decent form, beating John Isner in the last Round and recently winning a hard court event in Washington.
He faces Andrey Golubev who stopped a 15 match losing run on the main tour in the last Round when beating Stanislas Wawrinka. I think Golubev took advantage of the Swiss mans exertions from Montreal and he will not get that luxury against Stepanek who is adept at playing on hard courts and has the variation and character to both frustrate and anger opponents.
Stepanek has a 3-1 head to head record over Golubev and his wins have been relatively straight forward. I think we may see a 6-4, 6-4 win for him tonight.
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: I am backing Gilles Simon to win this match as he faces an opponent that looked a little fatigued in his win in the 1st Round following a run to the Semi Finals in Montreal last week.
We have seen in the past those players that do well in Canada and then falter in Cincinnati and I think Tipsarevic may be ripe for the taking here.
Simon has the winning mentality recently, albeit in a clay court event, and has beaten Tipsarevic in their 2 career meetings.
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Francesca Schiavone is one of the toughest competitors on the WTA Tour and I feel her ability to chase down a lot of balls (excuse me?!!) gives her the edge to break down the Kirilenko game.
That seems to stand up to the 4-1 head to head record Schiavone holds over Kirilenko and the fact that Kirilenko has had a slight injury in recent weeks will not aid her cause.
Schiavone has won their last 2 meetings without dropping a set, including in Kirilenko's home country, and I think she will prove too strong again.
Serena Williams - 2.5 games vs Sam Stosur: The odds here are clearly much lower because Serena Williams was showing signs of fatigue following her recent successes when beating Lucie Hradecka in the last Round.
However, the best Women's player in the World said in her press conference that she had arrived in Cincinnati the night before and she expects to play better today.
Stosur is another who played a lot of tennis in reaching the Final in Toronto last week but she was easily beaten on that occasion following a tight first set. The Australian has also been suffering with a slight wrist problem, especially when hitting her backhand strokes, and I think Williams will confirm her superiority over her today.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games vs Jie Zheng: I am going to back the former World Number 1, Jelena Jankovic, to come through this test against a player that has fallen from her best level that took her to a Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009.
Jie Zheng has won 3 Rounds here already so she is in form and she did push Serena Williams to 3 sets last week, but Jelena Jankovic has an impressive 4-1 head to head record against her opponent and she has won the last 3 meetings without dropping a set.
Jankovic has not had a good time on the hard courts this Summer so far, but she does adapt well to the faster surfaces and I expect her to come through tonight.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 0.48 Units
Only one of the big 4 has been in action so far, and that was Roger Federer with his impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro last night.
The former World Number 1 has opened up his section with that win and has shortened considerably in the outright market. Federer was impressive behind serve, one of the elements that let him down against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week, and it was clear he enjoys the conditions at this venue.
Today we will see the rest of the top 4 players in action in what looks like another busy day of tennis action:
Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs David Nalbandian: I am going to back the British Number 1 to make a much better start to the week than he did in Montreal and come through with a bit to spare.
Murray will be able to get a much better feel for this match than he did against Kevin Anderson as he won't be getting big bombs served at him and will be involved in many more rallies.
David Nalbandian is not the force of old and looked bad in losses against Stanislas Wawrinka and James Blake over the last couple of weeks. He has won a match here already this week, but I think he will give Murray too many chances and lose 6-3, 6-4.
Some may prefer backing Murray with a - 4 game headstart, but I think the price on - 4.5 games is tempting enough to give it a shot.
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Barring a bad first service game, Feliciano Lopez showed how effective his serve can be on this surface when beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in 3 sets in the last Round.
He faces a difficult opponent in Kohlschreiber that can be erratic- one match he will look like a top 20 player, in others you struggle to see how he got into the top 100.
Lopez has a 3-0 head to head record against the German and I have a feeling we may see a flat performance from Kohlschreiber following his 3 set win over Andy Roddick in the last Round.
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games vs Andrey Golubev: Radek Stepanek has shown he is clearly still in decent form, beating John Isner in the last Round and recently winning a hard court event in Washington.
He faces Andrey Golubev who stopped a 15 match losing run on the main tour in the last Round when beating Stanislas Wawrinka. I think Golubev took advantage of the Swiss mans exertions from Montreal and he will not get that luxury against Stepanek who is adept at playing on hard courts and has the variation and character to both frustrate and anger opponents.
Stepanek has a 3-1 head to head record over Golubev and his wins have been relatively straight forward. I think we may see a 6-4, 6-4 win for him tonight.
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: I am backing Gilles Simon to win this match as he faces an opponent that looked a little fatigued in his win in the 1st Round following a run to the Semi Finals in Montreal last week.
We have seen in the past those players that do well in Canada and then falter in Cincinnati and I think Tipsarevic may be ripe for the taking here.
Simon has the winning mentality recently, albeit in a clay court event, and has beaten Tipsarevic in their 2 career meetings.
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Francesca Schiavone is one of the toughest competitors on the WTA Tour and I feel her ability to chase down a lot of balls (excuse me?!!) gives her the edge to break down the Kirilenko game.
That seems to stand up to the 4-1 head to head record Schiavone holds over Kirilenko and the fact that Kirilenko has had a slight injury in recent weeks will not aid her cause.
Schiavone has won their last 2 meetings without dropping a set, including in Kirilenko's home country, and I think she will prove too strong again.
Serena Williams - 2.5 games vs Sam Stosur: The odds here are clearly much lower because Serena Williams was showing signs of fatigue following her recent successes when beating Lucie Hradecka in the last Round.
However, the best Women's player in the World said in her press conference that she had arrived in Cincinnati the night before and she expects to play better today.
Stosur is another who played a lot of tennis in reaching the Final in Toronto last week but she was easily beaten on that occasion following a tight first set. The Australian has also been suffering with a slight wrist problem, especially when hitting her backhand strokes, and I think Williams will confirm her superiority over her today.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games vs Jie Zheng: I am going to back the former World Number 1, Jelena Jankovic, to come through this test against a player that has fallen from her best level that took her to a Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009.
Jie Zheng has won 3 Rounds here already so she is in form and she did push Serena Williams to 3 sets last week, but Jelena Jankovic has an impressive 4-1 head to head record against her opponent and she has won the last 3 meetings without dropping a set.
Jankovic has not had a good time on the hard courts this Summer so far, but she does adapt well to the faster surfaces and I expect her to come through tonight.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: - 0.48 Units
Saturday, 23 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 23rd Hamburg Semi Finals
A very good week was close to becoming an excellent week as it looked like my outright pick on Marin Cilic (33-1 before the tournament started) was going to reach the Semi Finals as he had 2 match points in his match with Mikhail Youzhny.
Alas, it was not to be as both were saved and then a very lucky net cord led to Youzhny taking the final set tiebreak 8-6.
I dont think I will be making many more picks from Hamburg this week as the matches are beginning to get very tight to call and I dont think its correct to risk making picks when I am not sure how the matches will develop.
The final pick from this tournament this week is:
Mikhail Youzhny vs Gilles Simon: Both players can be a little hit and miss and they never make matches easy for themselves, but I think the play has to be the outsider in this one.
Mikhail Youzhny is very much at home on the clay courts and has had a decent week so far with the possibility to reach his first Final this season. He was erratic in his win over Cilic in the last Round but Youzhny has the capability to play with plenty of variation, a key for his success on the clay courts.
Gilles Simon is also a solid clay court player and will look to defend well to keep himself in points and grind down his opponents. He has tried to play with a little more aggression this season and that does leave him prone to making a lot more unforced errors, an area where Youzhny could take advantage.
It is also interesting to note that Youzhny has a 7-1 head to head record against Simon, although the last match was the first time Simon had won a match against the Russian. None of the matches have taken place on clay, but the fact Simon has struggled against him on the other surfaces shows that Youzhny has the consistency to break down the Simon game.
It could be a close one, but I think Youzhny can come out on top and I was surprised to see him as the underdog.
MY PICK: Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.38 Units (All picks completed from July 22nd)
Alas, it was not to be as both were saved and then a very lucky net cord led to Youzhny taking the final set tiebreak 8-6.
I dont think I will be making many more picks from Hamburg this week as the matches are beginning to get very tight to call and I dont think its correct to risk making picks when I am not sure how the matches will develop.
The final pick from this tournament this week is:
Mikhail Youzhny vs Gilles Simon: Both players can be a little hit and miss and they never make matches easy for themselves, but I think the play has to be the outsider in this one.
Mikhail Youzhny is very much at home on the clay courts and has had a decent week so far with the possibility to reach his first Final this season. He was erratic in his win over Cilic in the last Round but Youzhny has the capability to play with plenty of variation, a key for his success on the clay courts.
Gilles Simon is also a solid clay court player and will look to defend well to keep himself in points and grind down his opponents. He has tried to play with a little more aggression this season and that does leave him prone to making a lot more unforced errors, an area where Youzhny could take advantage.
It is also interesting to note that Youzhny has a 7-1 head to head record against Simon, although the last match was the first time Simon had won a match against the Russian. None of the matches have taken place on clay, but the fact Simon has struggled against him on the other surfaces shows that Youzhny has the consistency to break down the Simon game.
It could be a close one, but I think Youzhny can come out on top and I was surprised to see him as the underdog.
MY PICK: Mikhail Youzhny @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 14.38 Units (All picks completed from July 22nd)
Tuesday, 19 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 19th
I was hoping all the picks had been decided before I made any more for Tuesday, but unfortunately the rain arrived in Atlanta to curtail James Blake's momentum and it may just reinvigorate Ernests Gulbis in the match.
It was a much better start to the week than I had last week as I look to get back to picking winners- it has been a tough couple of weeks for me, but hopefully this week represents a turning point.
If the James Blake match is anything to go by, I might just be getting some luck back that seemingly deserted me recently. Blake was a set down and Gulbis was serving for the match and only 2 points from victory when Blake fought back for the break.
He then found himself 0-4 down in the tie break and I had all but accepted that this pick was going to falter, but Blake once again fought through adversity and won the set.
As I said, I felt the luck that had not been with me recently may just have returned when Blake saved 4 break points in the early part of set 3 before going on to get the break and the lead. Hopefully he can come out of the rain delay and finish the game off and book a match with John Isner in the next couple of days.
Now on to the July 19th Picks:
Marcel Granollers vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Marcel Granollers is one of these players that seems to play a lot better when you have picked against him, yet plays like a club player when you pick him to win, but I still feel there may be a spot of value on picking him to win this match.
Granollers has not really set the world alight this season, but his best stuff is usually played on the clay courts. He has had some solid wins over the likes of Nikolay Davydenko and Victor Troicki on clay this season, although both of those players have their own issues.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver has struggled on the main tour this season, winning just 5 of his 23 matches, and he is surprisingly been struggling on the clay, a surprise because the Spanish are generally pretty good on the red dirt.
Gimeno-Traver has lost to some really average players on clay this season, and his 2-2 head to head record with Granollers is a little misleading as he has lost his last 2 matches, both on clay, without winning a set.
Victor Crivoi vs Fabio Fognini: I dont really have a lot to say about this match except I am making the pick because I want to oppose Fabio Fognini has a short priced favourite.
Fognini was surprisingly beaten by Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week in Stuttgart and the Italian has been a little bit hit and miss all season on the clay. He had a good run at the French Open, but has also lost to the likes of Federico Del Bonis and the aforementioned Stebe.
Victor Crivoi was forced to qualify here and then beat Guillermo Olaso in the 1st Round to reach this stage. That was his 1 and only win on the main tour this season, but Crivoi does play the majority of his tennis on clay courts.
He also has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini- he beat the Italian on clay in Italy in 2009.
As a bigger priced underdog, Crivoi could be worth small stakes.
Double; Pablo Andujar vs Julien Benneteau and Gilles Simon vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Both of these players I have picked have a couple of issues surrounding them, but they are playing opponents that have been struggling.
My doubts about Pablo Andujar come from the fact that he reached the Final in Stuttgart on Sunday and I am a little concerned that he may be short of energy for this week. However, he plays Julien Benneteau who is struggling on all surfaces in recent weeks and someone who lost to Andujar on the clay courts of Nice a few months ago.
Gilles Simon blew a big chance to go deep in the draw at Stuttgart last week when losing in 3 sets to Albert Montanes, but he should still have too much for Sergiy Stakhovsky. The Ukranian player has been struggling for form and has not really been able to put too many back to back wins together in recent weeks.
Simon has also won both previous meetings with Stakhovsky and I think he will do so again this time.
MY PICKS: James Blake @ 1.83 (2 Units) Still in running at time of writing with Blake leading 5-7, 7-6, 3-2 *15-0
Marcel Granollers @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victor Crivoi @ 2.70 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Pablo Andujar and Gilles Simon @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.4 Units
It was a much better start to the week than I had last week as I look to get back to picking winners- it has been a tough couple of weeks for me, but hopefully this week represents a turning point.
If the James Blake match is anything to go by, I might just be getting some luck back that seemingly deserted me recently. Blake was a set down and Gulbis was serving for the match and only 2 points from victory when Blake fought back for the break.
He then found himself 0-4 down in the tie break and I had all but accepted that this pick was going to falter, but Blake once again fought through adversity and won the set.
As I said, I felt the luck that had not been with me recently may just have returned when Blake saved 4 break points in the early part of set 3 before going on to get the break and the lead. Hopefully he can come out of the rain delay and finish the game off and book a match with John Isner in the next couple of days.
Now on to the July 19th Picks:
Marcel Granollers vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Marcel Granollers is one of these players that seems to play a lot better when you have picked against him, yet plays like a club player when you pick him to win, but I still feel there may be a spot of value on picking him to win this match.
Granollers has not really set the world alight this season, but his best stuff is usually played on the clay courts. He has had some solid wins over the likes of Nikolay Davydenko and Victor Troicki on clay this season, although both of those players have their own issues.
Daniel Gimeno-Traver has struggled on the main tour this season, winning just 5 of his 23 matches, and he is surprisingly been struggling on the clay, a surprise because the Spanish are generally pretty good on the red dirt.
Gimeno-Traver has lost to some really average players on clay this season, and his 2-2 head to head record with Granollers is a little misleading as he has lost his last 2 matches, both on clay, without winning a set.
Victor Crivoi vs Fabio Fognini: I dont really have a lot to say about this match except I am making the pick because I want to oppose Fabio Fognini has a short priced favourite.
Fognini was surprisingly beaten by Cedrik-Marcel Stebe last week in Stuttgart and the Italian has been a little bit hit and miss all season on the clay. He had a good run at the French Open, but has also lost to the likes of Federico Del Bonis and the aforementioned Stebe.
Victor Crivoi was forced to qualify here and then beat Guillermo Olaso in the 1st Round to reach this stage. That was his 1 and only win on the main tour this season, but Crivoi does play the majority of his tennis on clay courts.
He also has a 1-0 head to head record over Fognini- he beat the Italian on clay in Italy in 2009.
As a bigger priced underdog, Crivoi could be worth small stakes.
Double; Pablo Andujar vs Julien Benneteau and Gilles Simon vs Sergiy Stakhovsky: Both of these players I have picked have a couple of issues surrounding them, but they are playing opponents that have been struggling.
My doubts about Pablo Andujar come from the fact that he reached the Final in Stuttgart on Sunday and I am a little concerned that he may be short of energy for this week. However, he plays Julien Benneteau who is struggling on all surfaces in recent weeks and someone who lost to Andujar on the clay courts of Nice a few months ago.
Gilles Simon blew a big chance to go deep in the draw at Stuttgart last week when losing in 3 sets to Albert Montanes, but he should still have too much for Sergiy Stakhovsky. The Ukranian player has been struggling for form and has not really been able to put too many back to back wins together in recent weeks.
Simon has also won both previous meetings with Stakhovsky and I think he will do so again this time.
MY PICKS: James Blake @ 1.83 (2 Units) Still in running at time of writing with Blake leading 5-7, 7-6, 3-2 *15-0
Marcel Granollers @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victor Crivoi @ 2.70 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Double; Pablo Andujar and Gilles Simon @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.4 Units
Monday, 11 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 11th
The first day of a new week are generally much quieter as the Qualifying matches are completed and there usually are only a couple of matches to pick from.
With Bastad being a 28 player main draw this season, it means there are even fewer matches scheduled on the opening day from the main draw- today we will only have Tommy Robredo vs Filippo Volandri.
Stuttgart is a bigger draw so we have a couple more matches taking place from that draw and it is from Germany that I will make my first pick of the week:
Gilles Simon vs Albert Montanes: This is a pick I will make even though I have taken Simon to win the tournament in the outright market as I feel the Frenchman is being slightly underrated to come through.
Simon has been in much stronger form than Montanes this season, with the latter looking like he might be slowing down against the better players on the tour.
That is not to say that Montanes should be underestimated, especially considering he is the defending Champion at the tournament this season. However, Montanes has not had the best clay court season so far this year and has already been beaten by Simon in straight sets on the surface.
Simon is a very consistent player and I think that will be the difference between the two players again. He has a 3-1 head to head record against Montanes and I think he will at least move on to the next Round with a win on Monday.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon to win @ 1.60 Pinnacle (2 Units)
With Bastad being a 28 player main draw this season, it means there are even fewer matches scheduled on the opening day from the main draw- today we will only have Tommy Robredo vs Filippo Volandri.
Stuttgart is a bigger draw so we have a couple more matches taking place from that draw and it is from Germany that I will make my first pick of the week:
Gilles Simon vs Albert Montanes: This is a pick I will make even though I have taken Simon to win the tournament in the outright market as I feel the Frenchman is being slightly underrated to come through.
Simon has been in much stronger form than Montanes this season, with the latter looking like he might be slowing down against the better players on the tour.
That is not to say that Montanes should be underestimated, especially considering he is the defending Champion at the tournament this season. However, Montanes has not had the best clay court season so far this year and has already been beaten by Simon in straight sets on the surface.
Simon is a very consistent player and I think that will be the difference between the two players again. He has a 3-1 head to head record against Montanes and I think he will at least move on to the next Round with a win on Monday.
MY PICKS: Gilles Simon to win @ 1.60 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sunday, 10 July 2011
Tennis Outright Picks July 11th-17th
The ATP Tour returns to its usual format this week as the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are behind us and we have a couple of tournaments running in Bastad, Sweden and in Stuttgart, Germany.
Both of these events are played on clay courts and it is seen as a good chance for some of the players to build points before the hard court season kicks off in August. The likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are not likely to have any action until the Montreal Masters that begins on August 8th, but that is not to say we dont have some strong fields this week.
There are a couple of doubts over the participation of players, but it should be a quality filled week of tennis on the circuit.
ATP Bastad
This tournament in Sweden sees 4 players from the top 15 taking part in the event and should be one of interest for the spectators as the top seed is Robin Soderling. Soderling pulled out of the Davis Cup tie against Serbia over the weekend and was ill the last time he took to the court when being defeated by Bernard Tomic at Wimbledon.
Soderling has really developed into a top class clay court player after it was considered his worst surface for much of his early career. This season it has taken the very best players to beat him on the surface and he has definite claims. However, he will likely have to face Tomas Berdych in the Semi Finals, although the Czech player has not been in the same form as last season.
The reason for Soderling's absence for the Davis Cup tie is also a concern, but the Swede does have a good recent record in this tournament, reaching the Final last year and finishing as Runner Up the year before.
The concerns surrounding Robin Soderling's health and Tomas Berdych's form means I will instead look at the bottom half of the draw for my pick.
David Ferrer's draw particularly stood out to me and it looks like the Number 2 seed has a fairly good chance of reaching the Final. However, the Spaniard was in the midst of a battle against Mardy Fish in the Davis Cup as I write this (Fish has just taken this match into a 4th set and we have already seen over 3 hours of tennis) and I am a little concerned that he will not take part in the tournament. Even though he has been given a bye into the 2nd Round, the mental energy being used in the Davis Cup may just work against him this week.
Ferrer has reached the Semi Final twice in his last 2 visits to the tournament, and was the Winner before that, but the issues surrounding his mental state, plus the long travel from Texas to Sweden makes the 2.75 being offered look extremely short.
Instead I will look at Ferrer's compratiot in the form of Nicolas Almagro in the outright market. Almagro is the Number 4 seed this week and is extremely comfortable on the clay courts.
Almagro is up to Number 13 in the World Rankings and has already won 3 titles this season, all the titles coming on clay courts. He too will be given a bye into the 2nd Round where he is scheduled to meet a Qualifier. The Spaniard is then seeded to meet Andrey Golubev, but either of the 4 possible opponents should be no match for him.
The biggest obstacle could be a potential Semi Final with Ferrer, a player that has beaten Almagro on all 7 occasions they have played, but there is no telling whether Ferrer is mentally ready to play this tournament and it could be another opponent on the line.
Another factor to help me feel a little more confident in backing Almagro is that he is the defending Champion here and has also reached the Quarter Final and finished as Runner Up in his last 2 appearances at the event.
Almagro is the 4th favourite to win the event, but he could find his path much clearer than the likes of Berdych and Soderling, especially if Ferrer is not quite up to his usual standards, and could be in line to win his 4th title of the season.
ATP Stuttgart
This tournament is headed up by Gael Monfils and it is no real surprise to see him at the top of the outright market too. However, Monfils has been handed a real tough 1st Round assignment against Victor Hanescu, even though the Frenchman has a 3-1 head to head record over him. Hanescu should provide problems, and actually beat Monfils the last time they played on a clay court.
The other seeds in the top half all have question marks against them- Florian Mayer was clearly suffering with some sort of injury during his Davis Cup defeat to Richard Gasquet so could have a couple of problems despite the relative ease of his draw through to the Quarter Finals.
Mikhail Youzhny has been handed a tough opener against Phillip Petzschner and also sees a potential clash with Juan Carlos Ferrero in the next Round, while Andreas Seppi has had a poor clay court season.
Therefore it seems best to concentrate on the bottom half of the draw where some significant players are in action.
Jurgen Melzer is the 2nd seed this year and is the 3rd favourite at the oddsmakers, but he has not had the best seasons so far. I do expect the Austrian to get through the early Rounds without too many problems but he does face a potentially tough Quarter Final regardless of who he meets there.
It seems the best section to pick a winner from could be the one where Nikolay Davydenko and Gilles Simon reside.
Now Nikolay Davydenko has always been a favourite of mine to watch, a player who is extremely consistent with his groundstrokes... Unfortunately, injury and lack of form has seen Davydenko fall away from the heights of around 18 months ago when he was one of the real dark horses in the Australian Open after winning the ATP End of year Championships.
There have been one or two signs that Davydenko may be coming back to form after he won in Munich on the clay earlier this season, but he seems to have taken a step back with 1 win from his last 4 tournaments played.
Davydenko has reached the Semi Finals here on a couple of occasions in the past, but the last 2 visits have been less memorable with a Quarter Final exit and a 2nd Round exit last season.
That leaves Gilles Simon as the player I like the look of the most. Simon is another player that has slipped from a career high ranking of 6 in January 2009 thanks to injury, although it looks like he is on the way back after moving back up to Number 18. It is unlikely that Simon reaches the dizzy heights of late 2008/early 2009 again, but he is once again competitive.
Simon does have 3 career titles on clay courts from the 8 he has won, and he did have a decent time during the clay court season and at the French Open.
The draw has also given Simon a chance to go deep in the tournament- he faces Albert Montanes in the 1st Round, but does hold a 3-1 head to head record against him with all the matches played on clay.
The Frenchman will then likely face Pablo Andujar, a clay court specialist, but one who should not have the consistency to derail Simon. He will then face Davydenko, a player he has beaten 5 times in a row before a potential Semi Final with Melzer.
Melzer leads the head to head with Simon 2-1, and did beat him in 5 sets on the clay in a Davis Cup match, but it is not exactly clear that Melzer will reach this stage with a tough Quarter Final in his way.
I believe if Simon can get through the Final, he will have the confidence to take on all of his prospective opponents, and he could make these odds on him winning his 2nd title of the season look silly.
OUTRIGHT PICKS: Nicolas Almagro to win Bastad @ 6.5 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Gilles Simon to win Stuttgart @ 8.0 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
E/W is 0.5 the odds for the win and will pay out if the player reaches the Final
Both of these events are played on clay courts and it is seen as a good chance for some of the players to build points before the hard court season kicks off in August. The likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are not likely to have any action until the Montreal Masters that begins on August 8th, but that is not to say we dont have some strong fields this week.
There are a couple of doubts over the participation of players, but it should be a quality filled week of tennis on the circuit.
ATP Bastad
This tournament in Sweden sees 4 players from the top 15 taking part in the event and should be one of interest for the spectators as the top seed is Robin Soderling. Soderling pulled out of the Davis Cup tie against Serbia over the weekend and was ill the last time he took to the court when being defeated by Bernard Tomic at Wimbledon.
Soderling has really developed into a top class clay court player after it was considered his worst surface for much of his early career. This season it has taken the very best players to beat him on the surface and he has definite claims. However, he will likely have to face Tomas Berdych in the Semi Finals, although the Czech player has not been in the same form as last season.
The reason for Soderling's absence for the Davis Cup tie is also a concern, but the Swede does have a good recent record in this tournament, reaching the Final last year and finishing as Runner Up the year before.
The concerns surrounding Robin Soderling's health and Tomas Berdych's form means I will instead look at the bottom half of the draw for my pick.
David Ferrer's draw particularly stood out to me and it looks like the Number 2 seed has a fairly good chance of reaching the Final. However, the Spaniard was in the midst of a battle against Mardy Fish in the Davis Cup as I write this (Fish has just taken this match into a 4th set and we have already seen over 3 hours of tennis) and I am a little concerned that he will not take part in the tournament. Even though he has been given a bye into the 2nd Round, the mental energy being used in the Davis Cup may just work against him this week.
Ferrer has reached the Semi Final twice in his last 2 visits to the tournament, and was the Winner before that, but the issues surrounding his mental state, plus the long travel from Texas to Sweden makes the 2.75 being offered look extremely short.
Instead I will look at Ferrer's compratiot in the form of Nicolas Almagro in the outright market. Almagro is the Number 4 seed this week and is extremely comfortable on the clay courts.
Almagro is up to Number 13 in the World Rankings and has already won 3 titles this season, all the titles coming on clay courts. He too will be given a bye into the 2nd Round where he is scheduled to meet a Qualifier. The Spaniard is then seeded to meet Andrey Golubev, but either of the 4 possible opponents should be no match for him.
The biggest obstacle could be a potential Semi Final with Ferrer, a player that has beaten Almagro on all 7 occasions they have played, but there is no telling whether Ferrer is mentally ready to play this tournament and it could be another opponent on the line.
Another factor to help me feel a little more confident in backing Almagro is that he is the defending Champion here and has also reached the Quarter Final and finished as Runner Up in his last 2 appearances at the event.
Almagro is the 4th favourite to win the event, but he could find his path much clearer than the likes of Berdych and Soderling, especially if Ferrer is not quite up to his usual standards, and could be in line to win his 4th title of the season.
ATP Stuttgart
This tournament is headed up by Gael Monfils and it is no real surprise to see him at the top of the outright market too. However, Monfils has been handed a real tough 1st Round assignment against Victor Hanescu, even though the Frenchman has a 3-1 head to head record over him. Hanescu should provide problems, and actually beat Monfils the last time they played on a clay court.
The other seeds in the top half all have question marks against them- Florian Mayer was clearly suffering with some sort of injury during his Davis Cup defeat to Richard Gasquet so could have a couple of problems despite the relative ease of his draw through to the Quarter Finals.
Mikhail Youzhny has been handed a tough opener against Phillip Petzschner and also sees a potential clash with Juan Carlos Ferrero in the next Round, while Andreas Seppi has had a poor clay court season.
Therefore it seems best to concentrate on the bottom half of the draw where some significant players are in action.
Jurgen Melzer is the 2nd seed this year and is the 3rd favourite at the oddsmakers, but he has not had the best seasons so far. I do expect the Austrian to get through the early Rounds without too many problems but he does face a potentially tough Quarter Final regardless of who he meets there.
It seems the best section to pick a winner from could be the one where Nikolay Davydenko and Gilles Simon reside.
Now Nikolay Davydenko has always been a favourite of mine to watch, a player who is extremely consistent with his groundstrokes... Unfortunately, injury and lack of form has seen Davydenko fall away from the heights of around 18 months ago when he was one of the real dark horses in the Australian Open after winning the ATP End of year Championships.
There have been one or two signs that Davydenko may be coming back to form after he won in Munich on the clay earlier this season, but he seems to have taken a step back with 1 win from his last 4 tournaments played.
Davydenko has reached the Semi Finals here on a couple of occasions in the past, but the last 2 visits have been less memorable with a Quarter Final exit and a 2nd Round exit last season.
That leaves Gilles Simon as the player I like the look of the most. Simon is another player that has slipped from a career high ranking of 6 in January 2009 thanks to injury, although it looks like he is on the way back after moving back up to Number 18. It is unlikely that Simon reaches the dizzy heights of late 2008/early 2009 again, but he is once again competitive.
Simon does have 3 career titles on clay courts from the 8 he has won, and he did have a decent time during the clay court season and at the French Open.
The draw has also given Simon a chance to go deep in the tournament- he faces Albert Montanes in the 1st Round, but does hold a 3-1 head to head record against him with all the matches played on clay.
The Frenchman will then likely face Pablo Andujar, a clay court specialist, but one who should not have the consistency to derail Simon. He will then face Davydenko, a player he has beaten 5 times in a row before a potential Semi Final with Melzer.
Melzer leads the head to head with Simon 2-1, and did beat him in 5 sets on the clay in a Davis Cup match, but it is not exactly clear that Melzer will reach this stage with a tough Quarter Final in his way.
I believe if Simon can get through the Final, he will have the confidence to take on all of his prospective opponents, and he could make these odds on him winning his 2nd title of the season look silly.
OUTRIGHT PICKS: Nicolas Almagro to win Bastad @ 6.5 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Gilles Simon to win Stuttgart @ 8.0 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
E/W is 0.5 the odds for the win and will pay out if the player reaches the Final
Thursday, 26 May 2011
French Open Day 5 Picks
The tournament at Roland Garros is hotting up and its only going to get better as Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro set up a 3rd Round clash on Friday. My initial thoughts on that game is Del Potro has the game to push the Serb if the conditions remain warm, but I do think Djokovic will be too consistent right now.
The biggest issue will be if Del Potro forces Djokovic into a long match, something that may have an affect as the tournament progresses into its 2nd week.
Roger Federer looked solid enough although his challenger was not really up to par here.
The Women's draw saw Julia Goerges play solid tennis to progress against Lucie Safarova, although the German will have to up her game if she wants to pose a genuine threat in this tournament. Still, I would rather be backing her than Caroline Wozniaki, surely one of the worst World Number 1's in recent times.
In terms of the picks, it was the best day of the tournament so far as 4 of the 5 picks identified came in as winners. To make it more productive, the lowest priced winner was priced at 2.00.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez almost blew the Men's treble I had picked out, being forced to win 13-11 in the 5th set to get through.
Now on to the 5th Day Picks:
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Robin Haase: I actually like Haase as a player, even before he took Rafa Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon last year, but I think the Dutchman is playing one of the most improved players on a clay court in the form of Mardy Fish.
Fish has also famously lost 14kg of weight which can be seen with the way he moves on the court. The faster conditions will also aid him here, and I think he wins the match. There is the danger he drops 1 set here, but I think otherwise Mardy should be able to come through in 3 or 4 sets.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets vs Sam Querrey: The big serving American has not had the best of seasons so far but is unlikely to perform under better conditions on a clay court. Querrey had an impressive 4 set win over Philip Kohlschreiber to reach the 2nd Round but now plays a much more dangerous opponent.
I am not usually a big fan of backing Ivan Ljubicic as he usually plays a lot better when I am NOT backing him to win. However, I feel he has a distinct advantage in the match up on this surface and I do expect him to move forward while dropping possibly just 1 set in the match.
Gilles Simon - 6 games vs Jeremy Chardy: This is yet another all-French match and will be last on the Phillipe Chatrier court on Day 5. I was a little surprised that Simon was not favoured even more as Chardy has struggled this season so far.
Chardy likes to hit his winners but that can be a problem against someone like Simon who can make a lot of balls. With a lack of consistency from Chardy, I expect Simon will get through while covering the spread.
If Simon wins by exactly 6 games, we will get our stake back.
As you can see, I don't have as many picks as yesterday simply because I cant find enough value in the Day 5 games. Hopefully the 3 picks I have identified can bring in another tidy profit.
MY PICKS: Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 8.90 Units
The biggest issue will be if Del Potro forces Djokovic into a long match, something that may have an affect as the tournament progresses into its 2nd week.
Roger Federer looked solid enough although his challenger was not really up to par here.
The Women's draw saw Julia Goerges play solid tennis to progress against Lucie Safarova, although the German will have to up her game if she wants to pose a genuine threat in this tournament. Still, I would rather be backing her than Caroline Wozniaki, surely one of the worst World Number 1's in recent times.
In terms of the picks, it was the best day of the tournament so far as 4 of the 5 picks identified came in as winners. To make it more productive, the lowest priced winner was priced at 2.00.
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez almost blew the Men's treble I had picked out, being forced to win 13-11 in the 5th set to get through.
Now on to the 5th Day Picks:
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Robin Haase: I actually like Haase as a player, even before he took Rafa Nadal to 5 sets at Wimbledon last year, but I think the Dutchman is playing one of the most improved players on a clay court in the form of Mardy Fish.
Fish has also famously lost 14kg of weight which can be seen with the way he moves on the court. The faster conditions will also aid him here, and I think he wins the match. There is the danger he drops 1 set here, but I think otherwise Mardy should be able to come through in 3 or 4 sets.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets vs Sam Querrey: The big serving American has not had the best of seasons so far but is unlikely to perform under better conditions on a clay court. Querrey had an impressive 4 set win over Philip Kohlschreiber to reach the 2nd Round but now plays a much more dangerous opponent.
I am not usually a big fan of backing Ivan Ljubicic as he usually plays a lot better when I am NOT backing him to win. However, I feel he has a distinct advantage in the match up on this surface and I do expect him to move forward while dropping possibly just 1 set in the match.
Gilles Simon - 6 games vs Jeremy Chardy: This is yet another all-French match and will be last on the Phillipe Chatrier court on Day 5. I was a little surprised that Simon was not favoured even more as Chardy has struggled this season so far.
Chardy likes to hit his winners but that can be a problem against someone like Simon who can make a lot of balls. With a lack of consistency from Chardy, I expect Simon will get through while covering the spread.
If Simon wins by exactly 6 games, we will get our stake back.
As you can see, I don't have as many picks as yesterday simply because I cant find enough value in the Day 5 games. Hopefully the 3 picks I have identified can bring in another tidy profit.
MY PICKS: Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 6 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 8.90 Units
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