Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 28th January)

There really isn't much to complain about when you make three selections from the opening four Quarter Final matches played at the Australian Open and all return as winners.

Making it most pleasing is the ease in which the three selections came in- Alexander Zverev did need to win a fourth set Tie-Breaker, but should have won the second set Breaker and things would have been even more comfortable for him.

He has set up another Grand Slam meeting with Carlos Alcaraz, while Elina Svitolina's comprehensive win over Coco Gauff means the Ukrainian is back in the top 10 of the World Rankings and looking like she is playing at a level to finally win a Grand Slam title.

Of course, she only has the World Number 1, the top Seed and the three consecutive time Australian Open Finalist to beat to reach the showpiece event on Saturday evening.

This has not been a tournament of too many surprises, but that does mean there are four more good looking Quarter Final matches heading out on the Rod Laver Arena on Wednesday as we hit Day 11 of the Australian Open.

The two women's Quarter Finals look exceptionally strong, while wins for Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner would mean the men's event is going to be concluding with the top four players on the Tour facing off, although neither should assume that Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton are going to be willing to roll over easily.

On Day 11, three more selections are made from the matches scheduled to be heading out onto the courts as the first Grand Slam of 2026 gets closer and closer to crowning Champions.

Iga Swiatek v Elena Rybakina: When the draw was made a little under two weeks ago, most fans would have been hoping that Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina were going to be on a collision course.

For moment Iga Swiatek fans may have been wondering if the former World Number 1 was going to be able to come through an awkward Third Round match that headed into a deciding set, but these two players have been untroubled for the majority of the tournament.

The numbers have been most impressive on the side of Elena Rybakina.

Not only has she won all four matches in straight sets, but Elena Rybakina has been serving at a really high level and that will always make her dangerous on the faster surfaces on the Tour. The first serve is about as good as any on the WTA Tour and Rybakina will know that she needs to land plenty of those if she is going to put Iga Swiatek under pressure.

However, it is the way Elena Rybakina has protected her second serve in the tournament which has really caught the eye, although there is no doubt that her opponent is going to offer a real test of that shot.

Before the tournament began, there were some question marks about Iga Swiatek and whether she had really prepared as well as hoped in the off-season.

Those concerns look to have been put to bed with her level in the event, although Swiatek has benefited from a kind draw with the toughest match being the Third Round contest against Anna Kalinskaya and that needed a deciding set.

The World Number 2 has been returning really well with over half of the return points being won by Swiatek, and that always puts an opponent under pressure. It is very unlikely that she will be able to do that against this Rybakina serve, but Iga Swiatek has tended to be able to get into the return games and eventually prove to have too much for the former Wimbledon Champion.

Elena Rybakina was able to break the mental hold that Swiatek may have had over her when beating this opponent at the WTA Finals a couple of months ago, but there is a feeling that the higher Ranked player was not quite at her best in Riyadh.

Another competitive match has to be expected, but Iga Swiatek may have the edge on the return of serve and that could see her through to the Semi Final.

Amanda Anisimova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: These two compatriots last met in the Final of the Canadian Masters in August 2024 and it was Jessica Pegula who got the better of Amanda Anisimova in three sets to win the title.

Fast forward to January 2026 and so much has changed for the latter, who is going into this Quarter Final as the favourite.

When Amanda Anisimova last faced Jessica Pegula, she was the World Number 132 and still making her way back onto the Tour after taking a break from the sport.

Now it is Anisimova who will go into this Quarter Final as the higher Ranked of the two players and she has also reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, which has given the World Number 4 a huge amount of confidence. The performances here in Melbourne have been from a player who has total belief in what she needs to do on the court and there is a consistency from Amanda Anisimova that will make her very dangerous.

Of course she has to respect Jessica Pegula who has been a consistent feature of the top 10 in the World Rankings and who has just beaten the defending Champion in the Fourth Round.

Prior to the win over Madison Keys, Jessica Pegula had been crushing all opponents behind some spectacular performances, but that is partly down to the draw opening up for her. The win over Keys was solid enough, although it was a match that could have seen the momentum swing at a couple of key moments and Pegula may feel that she has to find another level when facing someone like Amanda Anisimova.

She has never been beaten on the Tour by Anisimova, which has to be noted, but Jessica Pegula will also be aware that this may be the best version of her compatriot to date.

Over the last twelve months there has been contrasting results when these two have faced top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts- Amanda Anisimova has won seven out of ten in that spot, while Jessica Pegula has lost seven out of eleven.

Throughout her career, Jessica Pegula has just found things a bit too tough at the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments and that has happened more often than not. She can cause problems with her returning ability, but Anisimova may just have the slight edge at key moments and she can move through to the Semi Final at the Australian Open for the first time.

Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Lorenzo Musetti: It is not going to surprise anyone that 38 year old Novak Djokovic has produced declining numbers on the hard courts over the last couple of seasons.

However, all credit has to be given to the twenty-four time Grand Slam Champion that he continues to produce at a level that most mortals would consider very high.

The drop from the previous level is hard to ignore and makes it easy to not see Djokovic at the same light as previously, but this is a player that continues to look after himself very well and has all of the experience to deal with adversity.

He has yet to be given a real challenge at the Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court and receiving a walkover in the Fourth Round can only be a positive for him. It has been some time that Novak Djokovic has been making it openly known that he feels he has run out of steam at the business end of Grand Slams and not had the energy to beat Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, while also feeling that he would have to beat both to win a twenty-fifth Slam title.

Lacking energy cannot be an excuse when not having to go out on the court in what have been tough conditions over the last few days in Melbourne and Novak Djokovic is the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Lorenzo Musetti just crushed Taylor Fritz and so will be playing with a lot of confidence, while the Italian has easily had his best year on the hard courts. His opening to 2026 suggests Musetti can build on that, while he took a set from Novak Djokovic on the hard courts for the first time when facing him in the Final in Athens at the back end of the 2025 season.

Despite that, Lorenzo Musetti came up short and has lost all four hard court matches played against the former World Number 1 and so will have something to prove.

Here at Melbourne Park, Lorenzo Musetti has been serving pretty well and he is going to have to keep Novak Djokovic from taking control of rallies by producing a strong opening shot.

This has been a challenge for him against this opponent and that may show up over the course of the three plus hours that these two players will likely need to spend on the court.

Novak Djokovic will know that while he is struggling to keep up with the top two players in the world, like many on the ATP Tour, that there is also a closing of the gap between some of those climbing the World Rankings.

However, he still has some real aura on the court and Novak Djokovic can serve well enough to get out of one or two more jams compared with the World Number 5 and that should see the Serb come through in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 33-19, + 14.48 Units (106 Units Staked, + 13.66% Yield)

NFL Championship Games PlayOff Picks 2024 (January 28th)

There was one 'upset' in the Divisional Round of the NFL PlayOffs when the Kansas City Chiefs got the better of the Buffalo Bills, but fans of the Green Bay Packers will be wondering how their young team blew a huge opportunity to knock off the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Jordan Love's mistake at the end was costly, and one that he would love to have back. A turnover in desperation time is one thing, but throwing a Pick across your body with time on the clock and a couple of Time Outs was maddening and something Love and the Packers will think about in the off-season.

He showed enough to be rewarded with a new contract and there are plenty of positives for Green Bay to take into the 2024 season.

However, it is the two Number 1 Seeds who will be hosting the Championship Games on Sunday and conspiracy theorists will believe they know who will be facing off in the Super Bowl.

Over the last couple of seasons, the preview for the Super Bowl has featured two distinct colours which have ended up representing the two teams involved. For this year, the colours are red and purple and so many believe that means the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are 'scripted' to meet in Vegas in a couple of weeks from now.

Others suggest the NFL are desperate for Taylor Swift to be at the Super Bowl, and not as the Half Time show in this case, but Football is played on the field and it is no surprise the top Seeds are both favoured having home field advantage and also having been through one Bye in the PlayOffs.

After a 3-1 Divisional Round for the NFL Picks, a very strong season has already been secured for the selections made on the page.

Three more games are to come though and the ambition is to finish up with three more winners, beginning with the selections from the Championship Games which can be read below.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The AFC Championship Game is not being hosted at Arrowhead Stadium this season, but the Kansas City Chiefs are there again and that experience makes them very dangerous.

While there were some question marks about Patrick Mahomes and how his Chiefs would handle playing a road PlayOff game for the first time in the Divisional Round, all were answered positively as they got the better of the Buffalo Bills in a big game again.

After taking out the Number 2 Seed, the Kansas City Chiefs are now travelling to the Number 1 Seeded Baltimore Ravens, who had a much easier time of it in the Divisional Round as they crushed the Houston Texans. Playing the early game on Saturday compared with the Kansas City Chiefs going out last on Sunday will certainly tip some of the favour towards the Baltimore Ravens, but there is an immense amount of respect for the Chiefs and all they have achieved.

There are other factors in their favour- the Ravens have not left home since Christmas Day, while the Chiefs are in the tough spot of having to play back to back road games in the PlayOffs. For all of their experience and achievements, this is a first for Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City since he took over as the starting Quarter Back and it will be a considerable challenge.

Winning in Buffalo was huge, but it has come at a cost for Kansas City who will be without Joe Thuney on the Offensive Line. There is still a minor hope that Thuney will be able to suit up, but he is not trending in the right direction and that would be a huge blow to the Chiefs Offensive Line and Mahomes himself.

Andy Reid is not a massive fan of running the ball over and over, but the Chiefs showed they are willing to do what is needed when they beat the Bills in the Divisional Round. It has been one of the weaknesses of this very strong Baltimore Defensive unit and the importance of being able to establish the run will not be lost on anyone associated with Kansas City.

They have the capabilities of running the ball, although the absence of Joe Thuney will obviously have an impact on that. Losing their Left Guard may also mean the Chiefs are not able to keep the four man pass rush pressure generated by the Ravens from penetrating into the backfield and forcing Patrick Mahomes to get off his spot and have to move around before targeting Receivers down the field.

Unlike last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are not going to be facing a banged up Secondary in the Championship Game- Marlon Humphrey is back in practice and should be ready to go for the Ravens. This is going to put some pressure on the Receivers, who have been inconsistent all season, especially as they are facing a Baltimore Secondary who have been as good as any in the NFL over the course of the season.

So once again it comes back to running the ball effectively and at least giving Patrick Mahomes an opportunity- he will make all of the throws needed, but his Receivers are likely to be more confident in converting those short yardage positions than having to set longer routes and keeping concentration amongst a lot of contact.

The Baltimore Defensive unit have been very good at creating turnovers in contact and so it could be a potentially challenging day Offensively for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Unlike previous seasons, the Chiefs can rely on on the Defensive unit a lot more to make up for the Offensive struggles we have seen throughout the season.

Lamar Jackson had some PlayOff negatives to address last week in the Divisional Round and he and the Ravens did that very well against the Houston Texans. As well as the Texans had been playing Defensively, this is another test for the Baltimore Ravens as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are one of the top Defensive units in the NFL, but you may not always appreciate that with the Offense making the headlines. However, they have had real issues when it comes to stopping the run, including last week against James Cook, and this could be a real problem against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Injury has robbed the Ravens of their top two Running Backs, but they have still found a way to pound the rock behind this Offensive Line. Having someone like Jackson at Quarter Back helps and it will have been noted that Josh Allen was plenty effective when tucking the ball and running with it, which is what the Baltimore Quarter Back will do on designed plays too.

Running the ball should mean it is harder for Chris Jones and the Kansas City pass rush to impact the game, while also making it easier for Jackson when he does drop back to throw the ball down the field. The Ravens may not have the stand out names in the Receiving corps, but Zay Flowers has shown his worth and another week of practice should have Mark Andrews back on the field.

This is a huge boost for the Ravens and the home team can win this game.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is not an easy decision- he has won eight of eleven starts when set as the dog, including last week, while Mahomes is 5-0 against the spread when given more than a Field Goal worth of points.

A backdoor cover orchestrated by one of the best at Quarter Back cannot be ruled out, but the injury to Joe Thuney does really hurt this Chiefs team Offensively. They also match up poorly with the Ravens on the other side of the ball and Lamar Jackson's win over the Houston Texans will have just eased the PlayOff pressure he may have felt before the game was played.

Lamar Jackson has looked after the ball when throwing in recent games, but turnovers are likely going to be very important and Baltimore cannot afford to fumble their place in the Super Bowl.

The Ravens have enjoyed their schedule with this being a fourth consecutive home game and with a Bye Week thrown in too- this has not been that uncommon in recent years heading into the Championship Games and the previous eight teams are 5-3 against the spread with only one outright loser.

It will be close and competitive throughout with both teams looking to impose themselves on the line of scrimmage. However, the injury suffered by Joe Thuney could be key to separating the Ravens and Chiefs and Baltimore can do enough to get the better of the dominant AFC team and earn passage into the Super Bowl behind a cover.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: 1991.

That is the last time the Detroit Lions have played in the NFC Championship Game, but Dan Campbell and the management deserve a lot of credit for the way they have turned this franchise around. It would have been easy to move on from a Head Coach who had overseen a 3-13 record in his first season and then begun the next year at 1-6.

A strong end to the 2022 season saw the Lions only just miss out on the PlayOffs having won eight of ten games, but that run also gave the players and the entire franchise belief that they were heading in the right direction. They won the NFC North for the first time (they last won a Division when playing in the NFC Central), and the Detroit Lions have dismissed the challenge of the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take their place in the Championship Game.

Confidence will not be an issue, but the Lions are not nearly as experienced as the San Francisco 49ers, who only just beat the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round last weekend. Winning is all that matters, and the 49ers will lean on the experience of now playing in their fourth NFC Championship Game in five seasons.

The 49ers have lost the last two NFC Championship Games, but both were on the road and they did reach the Super Bowl in 2019 after crushing the Green Bay Packers in the Championship Game at home.

Eight of the last ten NFC Championship Games have been won by the home team and the San Francisco 49ers are playing with an extra day of rest. This is perhaps contributing to the fact that the 49ers are strong favourites to win this game and move onto Las Vegas in a couple of weeks time, but it is unlikely to be plain-sailing.

When San Francisco have the ball, the line of scrimmage is going to be a huge part of how successful the 49ers are going to be. Kyle Shanahan wants his team to be able to run the ball effectively as it opens up the playbook, and he will be willing to give the Detroit Lions a different look up front and have Receivers carry the ball to make sure the team is always in front of the chains.

Any team that has Chrsitian McCaffrey in the backfield behind this Offensive Line will be very confident, but the Lions are not without hope. All season we have seen the Defensive Line step up and stop the run and they have held their last three opponents to an average of just 80 yards per game on the ground.

Teams have been able to pick up some big chunks at times, which will encourage the 49ers, but it is going to be a key part of the game as the strength of the 49ers Offense goes up against the strength of the Lions Defense.

If the Lions can continue to be as stout as they have been all season, they will certainly feel they can rattle Brock Purdy at Quarter Back. Injuries in the Lions Secondary does mean it is possible to throw the ball against them and the 49ers have a number of quality weapons that can be used, but keeping the 49ers in third and long will allow the Detroit pass rush to get into Purdy's face and perhaps produce an errant throw or two.

Brock Purdy should have been picked off at least once last week by the Green Bay Packers, but the weather looks more to the Quarter Back's liking on Sunday. This should mean he has a better day passing the ball, but that pass rush pressure could still be a major problem and it will give the Lions a chance to stall drives.

After playing home games indoors, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will have been keen to see the weather report- he has played in California with the Los Angeles Rams, but it is Goff's time with the California Golden Bears that should mean he is happy enough in the outdoor conditions at Levi's Stadium.

Detroit will not want to put all of the pressure on their Quarter Back, but they will want to dominate on the ground with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs giving the Lions a dangerous duo behind Jared Goff. Both have been important to the Lions in their two PlayOff wins, while Gibbs is someone that can be a major threat whenever he gets a touch of the ball, although there is room for improvement.

They will certainly be encouraged by the performance of Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers and the Lions will be hoping to pick up from where their NFC North rivals left off in the Divisional Round. It is very important to establish the run to keep Jared Goff in positive field posiition and just give the Lions the kind of balance that will offer them every chance of earning the upset.

The Lions Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have also been very effective when it comes to protecting Jared Goff.

This feels really important to the outcome of the game- the Lions will have noted that there are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if they can keep Nick Bosa and Chase Young relatively quiet in the pass rush. Another important aspect of Jared Goff's play is that he has largely steered clear of turnovers and it was those mistakes from Jordan Love that cost the Green Bay Packers the opportunity of the upset.

Jared Goff will feel he has the weapons to win this game, even on the road. The numbers show that Goff has been more effective indoors, but the weather forecast is not a negative one for him and his time in California should mean that he cannot use playing outdoors as an excuse for underperforming.

His teams are 14-9 against the spread when set as an underdog of at least 5 points, while Goff and the Lions have really played well against the spread when facing the best teams in the NFL. They are also 12-7 against the spread as the road underdog since Dan Campbell took over as Head Coach and the Lions are being given plenty of points in this one.

The 49ers have been favoured in every game played this season, but they dropped to 3-6 against the spread as the home favourite in 2023 having failed to cover against the Green Bay Packers.

However, the biggest impact on this game has to be the status of Deebo Samuel- he has avoided a season ending injury having been knocked out of the Divisional Round game against the Packers, but he is questionable at best for Sunday.

While the 49ers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, Samuel looks to be the key to all they want to achieve Offensively. His ability to be a key part of the passing and the rushing side of the Offensive unit cannot be underestimated and it is telling that the 49ers are 10-3 against the spread in games that Deebo has started and finished, but amazingly 0-5 against the spread without him.

It may help the Lions slow the 49ers sufficiently enough to stay competitive throughout this one. Turnovers are likely going to be key for the team that reaches the Super Bowl, but Detroit certainly have a chance to win this one outright and so taking the points on offer looks to be the right play.

Of course there are a couple of practices to get through and Samuel is likely to be a game time decision, but the Lions can still be given an edge with this many points on their side.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 1.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 78-57-4, + 16.11 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 28th January)

It has been a good tournament for the fans to enjoy with plenty of drama throughout the fortnight.

Of course it has been much tougher to make predictions when there have been as many erratic results as we have seen in Melbourne in 2024.

While the Grand Slam tournaments will shut down until the end of May, there are plenty of big tournaments to be played between now and the French Open. I have set myself a target to achieve between now and then, but it will require some patience and better decision making, although also hoping that some of the margins lean back towards the selections having had so many Picks come close, but ultimately fail to cross the line over the last two weeks.

First off we have to round out this tournament and my thoughts about the Men's Final can be read below.

Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Daniil Medvedev: It was a stunning Friday of tennis at the Australian Open and it will be a big surprise to many that Novak Djokovic is not playing for yet another title in Melbourne.

He had never lost a Semi Final at the Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic was crushed by Jannik Sinner, a player who so many have tipped up to win a major. Some will have believed that could happen in 2024, but Jannik Sinner deserves a lot of credit for making his way into his maiden Grand Slam Final.

The World Number 1 felt he had played his 'worst' Grand Slam match, but take nothing away from Sinner who served big and rallied from the disappointment of dropping the third set. The Italian became the first player to prevent Novak Djokovic from earning a single Break Point in a completed Grand Slam match and it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner is going into the Final as the favourite.

Inexperience is perhaps an issue, but Daniil Medvedev has invested so much of himself to make his third Australian Open Final as he looks to finally win a title here. A former US Open Champion, Daniil Medvedev will be hoping a day of rest is enough to have him ready to compete in the Final after needing over 4 hours, especially having invested so much physical and emotional energy to come from 2-0 down in sets to beat rival Alexander Zverev.

It is the second time in the Australian Open that Daniil Medvedev has come back from two sets down and the third time he has needed all five sets to be played before progressing. That has to have an impact, although Medvedev has shown a warrior spirit to battle through matches even when things are seemingly beyond him.

All of that will be needed if he is going to win his second Grand Slam title, but it is going to take a special effort.

Simply put, Daniil Medvedev has not found his best form at the Australian Open and it has been his mental strength that has really proven to be the difference. He served really well in the last three sets in the Semi Final, but making as slow a start will be punished by Jannik Sinner, who really has impressed in his run to the Final.

Only one set has been dropped and the serve has proven to be an immense weapon for the World Number 4, which is likely going to be the case again in the Final.

If this match was played at the US Open, you would have had to worry about the head to head- at that time, Daniil Medvedev had won all six previous matches against Jannik Sinner, including two wins in 2023. However, it is Jannik Sinner who has won three in a row against Medvedev since the end of the last Grand Slam of 2023 in Beijing, Vienna and Turin.

All of those have been in indoor hard court events, but it will give Sinner plenty of belief and this is a player who has massively improved in leaps and bounds.

In those three wins, Jannik Sinner has held 90% of service games played, which is significantly better than his 74% overall mark against Daniil Medvedev. And with a potentially very tired opponent in front of him, Jannik Sinner will feel he can get enough balls back in play and really exert a lot of pressure on the World Number 3.

Handling the nerves will be key, but Sinner looks more than capable of doing that and the accumulated fatigue on Daniil Medvedev may just catch up with him in this match.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 23-49, - 57.34 Units (144 Units Staked, - 39.82% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Artur Beterbiev vs Anthony Yarde (January 28th)

The Boxing Picks had a strong return in 2022, but I have had a few weeks away from the selections in a bid to improve the win-loss rate.

A profit was secured in 2022, although the actually rate of successful winners was way below the mark I would have hoped. Narrowing the selections worked last year, but I still think there needs to be a little more done to close that further to try and improve the number of winners to losers.

Of course we are hitting markets that can produce big winners and that covers those losing selections, as proven last year, and balancing that approach with a stronger win-loss is the challenge to produce massive positive results.

We are already at the end of January, but I chose to avoid making selections from the first three cards of the year.

Much of that was down to trying to fine-tune the selection method, but practice is one thing, and reality can be much different.

There have been some solid fights already put together for the first half of the 2023 season and I will have a longer thread in the next Boxing Picks thread, which will hopefully be before the big Leigh Wood vs Mauricio Lara card set for mid-February. Much will depend on what kind of angles I can find, if any, but for now the focus is on the big fight taking place in London on Saturday.

Artur Beterbiev vs Anthony Yarde

There are one or two names in Boxing that may only be loved by the purists, but who are complete monsters of the sport.

One of those is Artur Beterbiev and as soon as it was announced he would be coming to London, this was an occasion that all Boxing fans should be looking to attend.

I will be there on Saturday evening as home hope Anthony Yarde has a second crack at winning a World Title after coming up short against Sergey Kovalev. That fight took place in Russia and Yarde was perhaps a punch or two away from ripping the World Title from the long time World Champion, but ultimately an Eleventh Round stoppage ended Yarde's hopes.

That bout was in August 2019 and it is disappointing to see that Anthony Yarde has only been out six times since then- one of those was a losing effort against Lyndon Arthur, although Yarde won the rematch decisively, and the Londoner has been guilty of long lay offs considering he has fought just once in 2022.

Anthony Yarde looks the part and I don't think anyone will doubt his power, but this is a massive step up compared with recent opponents and Artur Beterbiev has been operating at a much higher level.

Yes, he is 38 years old, and yes, he has not fought since June last year when blitzing Joe Smith Jr and that is largely down to Beterbiev dealing with injury.

However, there has been little sign this massive puncher has lost a step and Artur Beterbiev is looking to Unify the Light-Heavyweight Division over the next twelve months. All eighteen previous professional fights have ended in stoppage in favour of Beterbiev and he has been able to deal with any approach that opponents have brought into the ring.

If you want to box and move and stay out of trouble, Artur Beterbiev has shown his ring craft to closing off spaces and systematically broken opponents down and stopped them late.

On the other hand if you want a firefight, Artur Beterbiev has been happy to engage and ultimately closed the show very early.

My feeling is that Anthony Yarde believes plenty in his own power and I expect him to engage as early as he can.

Only Sergey Kovalev has avoided being stopped by Anthony Yarde and that kind of record means Yarde is unlikely to take an approach that he feels proved to be his downfall in narrowly losing the first fight with Lyndon Arthur. He returned to type in Knocking Out Arthur in Four Rounds in December 2021, and it feels like it would be a surprise to see this bout enter the second half of the contest with the styles of the two likely to blend very nicely.

Some have completely ruled out Anthony Yarde's chances, but everyone has a shot at the Light Heavyweight weight class. Callum Johnson did put Artur Beterbiev down early in his Fourth Round loss to the Russian in October 2018 and it felt like Johnson did hurt him that day (or angered him considering how soon Beterbiev closed the show).

Anthony Yarde showed some resiliency against Sergey Kovalev, but I think Artur Beterbiev is at a higher level than his compatriot right now and the World Champion may find the big punches in a shoot out to close this one inside the first half of the fight.

In other bouts on the card, I do think Artem Dalakian can make a strong return to the ring.

Inactivity can be an issue for any fighter and it may take a couple of Rounds to get back into the groove, but the Ukrainian may have enough to just about wear down David Jimenez in the second World Title bout on this card and Dalakian can earn a late stoppage.

I would be very surprised if Moses Itauma is not able to secure a win inside three minutes on his debut, while his brother Karol should also secure an early victory.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Artem Dalakian to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Moses Itauma to Win in the First Round @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karol Itauma to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Pick- Women's Final 2023 (January 28th)

The Fourth Round and Quarter Final Tennis Picks were pretty disappointing as far as I am concerned, although the key was that I did not have one of those truly bad days to knock off the early positive numbers produced.

That has been really important and ensured the perfect 4-0 run in the Semi Final selections has meant a solid winning effort at the Australian Open.

Even with that in mind, I am looking to keep the momentum going with my Tennis Pick from the women's Final on Saturday, one that features the two best players in the tournament by some distance. Picking a winner looks a tough challenge with so many external factors that could impact the two, namely nerves and tension at key moments, but I think it could be a good Final for the fans to enjoy and I am not anticipating a straight-forward win for either.

My Pick from the men's Final should be posted in the hour after the women's Final is concluded.

Elena Rybakina-Aryna Sabalenka over 22.5 games: The two best players at the Australian Open, in the women's draw, are meeting in the Final on Saturday and I do think this could be a really fun watch.

Some people have suggested that tennis matches tend to be 'too long', but I am not sure how many rallies are going to be played by Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka. Both are aggressive, first strike players who have massive serves that can set up the points right from the off, while they will also be well aware that the other is likely going to take some big swings with every second serve that will be seen.

Tension in the arm and the magnitude of the situation can lead to a lot of mistakes from players who want to swing freely. There will also be a lot of pressure to up the first serve percentage with Elena Rybakina getting 55% of first serves in play compared with 58% for Aryna Sabalenka, a number that may not seem like much between them, but one that may give the higher Ranked player a slight edge.

Of course Elena Rybakina has a real mental edge of having won a Grand Slam title before, even if she feels she is not a Champion after the Wimbledon Ranking points were scrubbed last year. That would have meant going into the next two Grand Slams as a top ten player and perhaps a higher profile than being bunted out into one of the outside courts to open her tournament in Melbourne.

The Kazakhstan player is not one to let something like that bother her and the way she has cut a pathway through the draw underlines the point.

However, the raw numbers at this tournament suggest the layers have got the right favourite for this Final in Aryna Sabalenka. Getting more first serves in play is obviously huge, but Sabalenka has also has slight edges in terms of points won behind the second serve and on the return, even if the Elena Rybakina first serve feels the best shot on the court.

Aryna Sabalenka has also won all three previous matches against Elena Rybakina- all three have needed a deciding set with one or two errors capitalised on by the opponent.

I very much feel that could be the case again in the women's Final at the Australian Open.

Both players should feel they can contain the threat the opponent brings by producing big first serves, but I also think aggressive returns will see some swings in momentum. You can't really account for how players will deal with nerves of the occasion, but I do think the chance of being able to settle down with big serving will help and I think they are very closely matched, which could produce a tight and competitive Final.

There is a chance that just two sets will be needed to clear the total games mark set for the Final- I am noted that the money has come in for Elena Rybakina to narrow the odds, but picking a winner is difficult with my narrow edge going with Aryna Sabalenka, my pre-tournament selection to win the opening Grand Slam of 2023.

However, going over the total games line looks the play here considering how close their previous matches have been and I do think a decider might be needed.

Of course you cannot discount the chances of nerves overwhelming one of the players on the day- that is more likely to be on Aryna Sabalenka's side of the court now that Elena Rybakina has won a Grand Slam title before. Those nerves can quickly see a match run away from a player, but I think the serving capabilities of both and the performance level at the Australian Open should mean a close, competitive match is produced.

MY PICK: Elena Rybakina-Aryna Sabalenka Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 43-30, + 14.08 Units (142 Units Staked, + 9.92% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2022 (January 28th)

Winners in the two Women's Semi Final matches on Day 11 has just turned the Australian Open back around, but a couple more are going to be needed to come away from the opening month of the 2022 season with a positive start.

The Men are going to take centre stage on Day 12 with the two Semi Finals scheduled to be played on the same day, although the Australian Open have followed the French Open path in putting one in a Day Session and one in a Night Session. It doubles up the fee that spectators will have to pay to watch both Semi Final matches, but I still believe it is exploitative of the fans and much prefer the Wimbledon approach of paying for the day when both are scheduled to be competed.

That is for another day and I guess these Grand Slams are making up for losing out on revenue over the last couple of years, but I simply don't like it.

What I do hope to like is the two selections from the Men's Semi Final matches which are to be played on Day 12 at the tournament.

Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Matteo Berrettini: I am not entirely sure what happened to Rafael Nadal midway through the Quarter Final win over Denis Shapovalov, but you have to imagine the day of rest between matches is very important to the player chasing 21 Grand Slam titles. He looked to be cruising through another Round when leading 2-0, but Rafael Nadal didn't convert early opportunities in the third set and surprisingly went missing physically and mentally in the match.

He will be hoping the conditions are not as brutal as they were on Day 9 when Nadal wilted a little bit, but I also think it is a big bonus that Matteo Berrettini was forced into a fifth set decider on the same day. Like Rafael Nadal, the Italian looked to be well on the way to the Semi Final when leading 2-0 in sets against Gael Monfils, but instead had to expend unnecessary energy in winning a fifth set decider.

It has been a tough tournament for Matteo Berrettini, but he has underlined his position as a threat on all surfaces and now is looking for a really big win at a Grand Slam. The Italian has been a little fortunate in three of the five matches he has won at Melbourne Park and he has spent a considerable amount of time on the court already.

Rafael Nadal did need over four hours in tough conditions to win his last match, but he has not really been pushed too hard prior to that and I do expect that to make a difference in this Semi Final. He is a player that has struggled at the business end of the Australian Open too many times since winning the title here in 2009, but I think the match up is one that Rafael Nadal should be comfortable with.

He will know he is going to be bludgeoned by some huge serving and big forehands, but Rafael Nadal's natural position is to go into the Matteo Berrettini backhand and we all saw the damage that was done by a loopier shot Gael Monfils was playing into that wing. Rafael Nadal won't just use that loopy approach, but his ball will be spinning plenty and it may make it tough for Berrettini to control.

Despite the tough nature of the Quarter Final, Rafael Nadal is producing much better numbers than Matteo Berrettini in this tournament. His serve has largely been effective and Nadal is the superior return player.

You can't rule out Matteo Berrettini as we have seen players capable of overpowering Rafael Nadal on the hard courts and there is no doubting the power that Berrettini possesses. He may not be breaking at the same rate as the Spaniard, but Matteo Berrettini is building pressure with a serve that he has held 91% of the time in the Australian Open.

Even then, that is a number below Rafael Nadal's mark at Melbourne Park and the biggest unknown is how the former World Number 1 is feeling physically. With the day of rest I am expecting Rafael Nadal to be as close to his best as he can be at 35 years old and although he is playing an opponent who is much younger, I think Nadal's experience can see him close the door on Matteo Berrettini in a three or four set win.

I do expect a closer match than when these two met in the US Open Final in 2019, but I also think Matteo Berrettini has to be much better than we have seen in this tournament to win two or more sets.

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Stefanos Tsitsipas: It was a tough, gruelling Quarter Final and Daniil Medvedev had to fight back from 2-0 down to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in almost close to five hours on the court.

The World Number 2 has an opportunity to move past Novak Djokovic with a win at the Australian Open, but admitted he tried to get into the same mindset as the great Champion in a bid to turn around a match that had gone completely against him through the first two sets. The numbers back up the fact that it feels like Felix Auger-Aliassime missed a big opportunity to move past Daniil Medvedev and the big question for the Russian is how much time he has had to recover for this Semi Final.

Is one day going to be enough for a player that has not really reached the heights we know he is capable of at Melbourne Park? At least the schedulers have helped by placing Daniil Medvedev in the second Semi Final on Day 12 at the tournament, but he is going to have to be a lot better if he is going to get the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas, who enjoyed a much more comfortable passage through to the Semi Final.

It has been a tough tournament for Stefanos Tsitsipas at times, but he will be receiving an overwhelming support and may not have a better chance to get one over on his rival on the hard courts. In their previous matches, it is Daniil Medvedev who has been the much superior player and that includes a very easy win here at the Australian Open in the Semi Final in 2021.

Both have served really well in the Australian Open and that is going to be a major factor in this match- the player who can get behind their rhythm the best on serve is going to be the player dominating rallies and ultimately winning this match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has the better returning numbers of the two players in the Australian Open this year, but he seems to have played the big points better than Daniil Medvedev. While both have won around 36% of return points played, it is the Greek star who has broken in 22% of return games compared with Daniil Medvedev's 18% mark.

However, you can't help feel there is more room for improvement for Daniil Medvedev and he has broken in 23% of return games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas on the hard courts. That is much better than the 11% mark produced by Tsitsipas and I do think the match up is one that the World Number 2 enjoys.

Much is going to depend on how fit Daniil Medvedev feels, but I think he is capable of winning this match and will likely have to get the job done relatively quickly after the effort needed in the Quarter Final. He is capable of doing that as long as he serves better than he did against Felix Auger-Aliassime, and I think Daniil Medvedev can be backed in this second Semi Final to continue his dominance over Stefanos Tsitsipas on a hard court.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 39-31, + 6.38 Units (140 Units Staked, + 4.56% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2020 (January 28th)

The plan for the day was all set up- I was going to watch the United FA Cup tie and by around 8, 8:30 in the evening I would have finished my research and been able to produce the Day 8 Picks for the Australian Open.

And then the news hit me.

Kobe Bryant was gone. Along with his 13 year old daughter Gianna as Kobe accompanied her to a basketball practice.

I'm not a Lakers fan, but I am a basketball fan and for a long time I could enjoy the PlayOffs for what they were as the New York Knicks have long failed as an organisation.

More importantly I am a fan of individual players in a sport where one player can carry a franchise and not many have done that better than Kobe Bryant.

A five time NBA Champion and his 'Mamba Mentality' saw Kobe come up big at the very biggest moments- he was the generational talent between Michael Jordan and LeBron James and he put his name alongside the very finest to play the game.

A legend who was certain to enter the Hall of Fame in 2020, Kobe transcended the NBA having had an impact on sportsmen and women around the world.

Everyone knows Kobe the same way everyone knows Michael Jordan and LeBron.

And in his post-basketball career Kobe continued to achieve things no one could have predicted with an Oscar win, while no one will ever doubt the devotion he had to his family.

I honestly can't believe he is gone.


Things like this put everything else into perspective and I will be honest that I couldn't feel the energy to pick the laptop up and write down thoughts for Day 8 at the Australian Open. The unexpected passing of a legend who I had grown up watching and reading about made it hard to focus on anything but feeling for his fans and his family.

Even now I can't quite believe he has gone, but time will begin to heal all. Replacing a husband/father and a daughter/sister is impossible for the family, and the NBA won't be the same going forward with the impact Kobe had on so many in the League.

It hurt very much on Sunday night hearing the awful news, but life does slowly begin to return to some normality. People can be guilty of taking things too seriously, but Kobe put it best- 'life is too short to get bogged down and be discouraged. You have to keep moving. You have to keep going... Just keep on rolling'.


After all this it does feel 'meaningless' to write down my thoughts on the Quarter Final matches at the Australian Open. However we have to keep going and appreciate the greatness we enjoy as sports fans around the world.

Ultimately this should be nothing but a bit of fun- there are more important things in life without a doubt. You can read my thoughts on the four Australian Open Quarter Finals scheduled for Tuesday below.


Sofia Kenin - 3.5 games v Ons Jabeur: This has to be the most surprising Quarter Final at the Australian Open in 2020 as Sofia Kenin and Ons Jabeur have put a number of upsets in the books to reach this Round of the tournament. Actually all of those upsets have been produced by Ons Jabeur who has been the underdog in three of her four matches at the event and that is the case for her again on Tuesday.

It should not be a big problem for her mentally, but the pressure is increasing on both players who are not used to being involved at this stage of a Grand Slam. Both will look at this match up as a wonderful chance to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final and I do think it could come down to which of the two players handles the occasion best.

I do think nerves are going to be at play on both sides of the court, although Sofia Kenin may have a mental advantage having won three previous matches against Ons Jabeur. That has to be important, while Kenin has also been playing at a superior level to the Tunisian who has done very well to reach the Quarter Final but also won some close games to just about edge past opponents.

The serve has been a big part of the successes for Jabeur and she has been able to just about keep herself in matches through some close moments to take advantage despite not having the best return numbers. Ons Jabeur has taken her chances when they have been presented which does make her dangerous, but I also like the way Sofia Kenin has been playing on the return.

For the most part in this tournament the American has also served well and I do think it is going to be the reason she edges through to the Semi Final. Her superior return game should also show up and was the reason Kenin was able to beat Jabeur in their sole previous hard court match and I will look for the favourite to cover the line.


Ashleigh Barty - 1.5 games v Petra Kvitova: In 2019 Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty became very familiar with one another having met five times on the hard courts over the course of the season. The first two of those matches were played in Australia where Kvitova was able to get the better of the home hope on both occasions including a thumping win at the Australian Open twelve months ago.

They met at the same stage of the 2019 Australian Open and that was the most one-sided of the five matches played as Kvitova perhaps took advantage of some of the Barty nerves.

Those should be easier to deal with, although not completely out of play, by Ashleigh Barty who has won a Grand Slam since that meeting twelve months ago. Perhaps even more important is the fact that Barty has won the last three matches between these players on the hard courts and there has been a real edge in the return numbers across those matches that will give the World Number 1 real confidence and rightly has her down as the favourite.

Making it a closer match is the levels the two players have produced so far in this tournament with Petra Kvitova definitely operating at the higher level. The last Round was perhaps tighter than it should have been, but the Czech player will largely be very happy with the serving and that has allowed her to take big swings off the return to put herself in a strong position to win matches.

On the other hand Ashleigh Barty had a really difficult win over Alison Riske, although that has been a bad match up for her in the past. Finding a way to bounce back from a miserable second set has to give the World Number 1 further confidence as she looks to be come the first Aussie to win the home Grand Slam since 1978.

The return has largely been good enough too and over the last twelve months Ashleigh Barty does have a slight edge over Petra Kvitova. The fact she has found the win in the last three hard court matches between these players and has a considerable edge on the return in those three wins is another positive factor for the top Seed.

I do think we are going to see a top quality match, but I like Ashleigh Barty as the narrow favourite to progress to the Semi Final and earn a measure of revenge over Petra Kvitova for the defeat twelve months ago.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: Two years ago Tennys Sandgren came out of left field to have a strong run at the Australian Open as he reached the Quarter Final. That was only the third time he had played in the main draw of any Grand Slam and since that run Sandgren has reached just a single Fourth Round in seven Slams played.

That all changed over the last few days as the American has once again managed to work his way into the Australian Open Quarter Final. Two years ago Tennys Sandgren was beaten in straight sets by Hyeon Chung, but this time the challenge is even tougher as he takes on Roger Federer.

The Swiss superstar has not been at his best in this tournament, but the performance in the Fourth Round was very encouraging and the hope is that Federer is peaking at the right time. There are clearly still some areas to improve if Federer is going to win the Australian Open yet again, especially when it comes to the serve and being in a position to prevent as many break points as he has been giving up.

Where Roger Federer has excelled is on the return of serve and that is going to be key for him in this Quarter Final to make things easier for himself. It does have to be said that Tennys Sangren possesses a serve that can be very difficult to break when at his best, and he has been able to play the big points very well in the tournament so far.

In each of the last three matches played by Tennys Sandgren it is the opponent who has managed a lot more break points than himself, but where the American has been clinical when chances are presented he has also been good enough to save the majority of break points being faced.

I would not be massively surprised if one set is very competitive in this Quarter Final, but ultimately you have to believe Roger Federer is going to eventually take command. I just can't see Tennys Sandgren continuing to raise his level when the break points come up as he has been so far at the Australian Open and not when Roger Federer has been knuckling down and playing those big points efficiently too.

This is a big spread without a doubt, but I do think Roger Federer can work his way to the cover.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Milos Raonic: This has been a big tournament for Milos Raonic who is looking to move back up the World Rankings with a solid set of results behind him. It has been something of a surprise when you think the Canadian was beaten in his only match prior to the start of the tournament, but he has been in monstrous form as far as his serve is concerned and that has put opponents under intense pressure to stay with Milos Raonic.

Even then it will take a special effort from Raonic to beat Novak Djokovic as the World Number 2 and defending Champion in Melbourne continues to make easy work of his draw. The Serb did drop a set in the First Round, but he has been largely dominant and Novak Djokovic has only been broken once in his last three matches.

You do have to say that Djokovic has perhaps not hit the heights you would expect from the return of serve, but he has managed to produce at least four breaks of serve in each of the matches played here. There is perhaps some room for improvement in the amount of points being won on the return of serve, but Novak Djokovic has been looking very good so far.

It will be interesting to see how he can do against the Milos Raonic serve which has yet to be broken in this tournament. In previous matches between these players Novak Djokovic has broken in 30% of return games played against the Canadian on the hard courts, although their last match up was eighteen months ago.

That was a very close match and Milos Raonic has continued to be a very strong server over the last twelve months on this surface. His return continues to be a little limited and that has shown up in the last couple of matches even though Raonic has found a way to earn the breaks he has needed to win sets.

Novak Djokovic has been very confident looking after his serve though and I do think he is going to be able to wear down Milos Raonic. When they met at the Australian Open in 2015 it was Novak Djokovic who won the match and he got stronger and stronger in a straight sets win.

This one might be closer, but I think the Serb will prove too strong and test the Milos Raonic to a level that has yet to be faced in this tournament so far.

MY PICKS: Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 29-26, + 1.34 Units (112 Units Staked, + 1.20% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (January 28th)

The first Grand Slam of the 2019 Tennis season entered the books on Sunday with Novak Djokovic joining Naomi Osaka as the Singles Champions at the Australian Open.

January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.

With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.

Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.


Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.

He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.

Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.

The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.


Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.


When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.

The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.

Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.

For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.


The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.

Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.

Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.

In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.


Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.

Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.

In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.

Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.

I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.


Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.

An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.

I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.

The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.

The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.

Tennis Picks 2019

The Australian Open added to a very good start for the Tennis Picks in 2019 with plenty of profits to add to the first month of the season.

Twelve months ago it was a difficult tournament, but the last six months of the Tennis Picks in 2018 ensured that season finished with a profit and 2019 has begun in a very promising way.

This week the WTA Tour moves to Hua Hin in Thailand and St Petersburg in Russia. At the end of the week the Davis Cup Finals Qualifying ties are played over Friday and Saturday with the new format of that competition set to go for the 2019 season and I should have some Picks for most of the days this week.

Next week the ATP Tour returns with three stops on the calendar as we get to see some indoor tennis and also the start of the Golden Swing in South America.

MY PICKS: 

Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2018- Men's Final (January 28th)

The final day at the Australian Open is headlined by the men's Singles Final and this year it is Marin Cilic taking on Roger Federer for the title.

While the women's Final was contested by the top two players in the World Rankings, the men's Final is between the Number 2 and Number 3 Ranked players.

Roger Federer has been in fantastic form so far this week and has yet to drop a set, but Marin Cilic is perhaps the most dangerous opponent he has faced. I do think this will be a good Final with the way both players have been playing and I am looking forward to the early Sunday start as we close the first Grand Slam of the season.


So what is next for the tennis picks after this weekend? The ATP Tour actually has a free week with the Davis Cup ties in the opening Round of the World Group being played next weekend.

I will look out for any picks from the WTA St Petersburg event that is being played this week with some of the top players on the Tour taking part in that event. However with just the one tournament of note up until Friday it may not be a lot of options available and so the tennis picks this week are likely to be out without the consistency of day to day picks.

On Friday I should have some picks from the Davis Cup to add to any selections from the WTA St Petersburg event.

The week after this one we will get to see three ATP events beginning with the 'Golden Swing' in South America, the indoor European season and the North American hard court events all beginning. That means a busy month is ahead before we get to the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells which begins in early March after the first ATP 500 events have been placed in the books in February.


Marin Cilic-Roger Federer over 38.5 games: The feeling was that we were heading towards a repeat of the 2017 Australian Open Final when Rafael Nadal took a 2-1 lead over Marin Cilic in their Quarter Final. However it was not to be for the World Number 1 who suffered an injury in the fourth set and Marin Cilic took full advantage to reach another Grand Slam Final.

The run to the Final here in Melbourne also means Cilic is going to reach a career high of World Number 3 whether he wins or loses here. The all around game that Cilic possesses does make him a very dangerous opponent for anyone he plays with the big serve and the heavy groundstrokes able to dictate rallies to his liking.

Redemption will also be on the mind of Cilic going into Sunday's Final.

Last year at Wimbledon was perhaps the lowest point of Cilic's career as an injury taken into the Final almost forced him to pull out of the match. He tried hard to compete, but emotionally it was all too much for Cilic who openly shed tears on Centre Court and then battled against all odds to at least complete the Final.

That would have gotten Cilic a lot of sympathy, but it is never easy to have the crowd support you over Roger Federer who was also his opponent at Wimbledon on that day.

Federer has moved through to the Final without dropping a set in the Australian Open and he should be well rested after Hyeon Chung pulled out of their Semi Final when trailing 6-1, 5-2. That could be important for Federer, although I don't doubt his fitness, and I don't think either Cilic or the defending Champion will feel they could come into this Final in much better condition.

A healthy Cilic has also been a tough test for Federer to deal with even if the Swiss player has gotten the better of the head to head. When Cilic is serving to his maximum level, Federer can struggle to get a look in and the match Tomas Berdych played against Federer in the Quarter Final has to be on the mind of Cilic going into this Final.

Berdych has perhaps been the closest player to take a set from Federer this week and he made a fast start which put Federer under pressure. He even served for the first set and Cilic is arguably a similar player, but superior in most departments these days. Cilic will be able to set his points up with the big serve, if it is firing, and he is securer with his movement and groundstrokes than Berdych, while I also think Cilic is a little more comfortable at the net.

Suffice to say I don't imagine this Final going the same way as the one at Wimbledon, especially with Cilic much healthier coming into this match.

Matches between these players may have generally ended in favour of Federer, but Cilic has beaten him at the US Open on the way to winning the title there and also held a 2-0 lead in sets at Wimbledon in 2016 before missing a huge chance to beat Federer there too.

In fact Cilic has taken at least one set in four of the last five matches between him and Federer including at the ATP Finals a few months ago. Yes he has only won one of those matches, but I would be massively surprised if Cilic is able to record another straight sets win over Federer at a Grand Slam with the way the latter is playing.

However Cilic is playing well enough to take a set and he is serving well enough to make Federer dig deep to turn this back around. It would be a surprise if Federer is not able to win at least one set and I can see this Final being another classic Down Under with at least four sets needed.

I can't see either player falling away easily in the match and the serving both have produced suggests this is a match that is going to feature four tight sets at the least. That should give the Final every chance of covering this number of games set in the total games market.

A tiebreaker or two can't be ruled out and I think three competitive sets will be enough to cover the number as long as neither player wins this match in straight sets. The numbers being produced by both men suggests that is unlikely to be the case barring something unforeseen happening and I am looking for the total games to be surpassed.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic-Roger Federer Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 35-38, - 4.84 Units (125 Units Staked, - 3.87% Yield)