Australian Open Day 13 Picks 2015- Women's Final Live Blog

I am considering doing a live blog for the women's Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams which takes place on Saturday morning and will use this post if I am going to do that.

First of all is my pick for the Final:


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: There is a real feeling that Maria Sharapova won't have a better opportunity to snap her 15 match losing run against Serena Williams than in the Final of the Australian Open when they meet on Saturday.

The form of the two players suggests Sharapova has every chance of finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season, but there is some real mental pressure on the Russian having to overcome all the losses she has taken.

Serena Williams hasn't been at her best in the tournament, but she was producing arguably her best tennis in the last two Rounds and she has only lost one set from the last TWENTY-FOUR that these two have competed against one another. That is another huge mental barrier for Maria Sharapova to break through and she will need Williams to be short of her best if she is going to win this Grand Slam title.

Both players have similarities with the way they approach their tennis- both will look for a big serve to set their points up and have heavy returns off the ground. The forehand and backhands are powerful shots and both players look to dictate the points with those heavy shots to keep their opponent's on the back foot.

So why has Serena Williams dominated the head to head? It does look like Serena has the more consistent serve and won't serve the double faults at the rate that Sharapova does, while her second serve has a little more on it and is tougher to attack. The movement is also in favour of the American who is the slightly better defensive player and even these slight issues give her the edge in the contest.

There is also the added fire that Serena seems to bring to the court when she sees Maria Sharapova on the other side of the net and that has shown up in the head to head. Sharapova will have her chances in this one if she can play first strike tennis, but I do believe Williams is the one that is going to dictate the majority of the rallies and come through this match with a 63, 63 win and add her 19th Grand Slam trophy into the cabinet at home.


It is sod's law that my internet has been playing up a little this morning so I have had to join the live updates after the match has started. Just hit refresh on your browser for the updates.

Serena Williams 4-2* Maria Sharapova: Most people spent the rain delay talking about the illness that Serena Williams has been dealing with and how the delay was going to upset her rhythm.

Coming back out at 30-30 after a short delay is tough to do, but Serena Williams bangs down one big serve and one heavy shot down the line to move ahead by two games.


Serena Williams *5-2 Maria Sharapova: So much for the rain delay being a huge problem for Williams to deal with! Instead it is Sharapova who has been cooled off and who loses 4 straight points on serve to go down a double break.


Serena Williams 5-3* Maria Sharapova: A double fault is followed by a couple of big shots from Maria Sharapova to bring up three break points to save the set.

The first two are saved by big serves from Williams, but another double costs her one of her breaks.


Serena Williams *6-3 Maria Sharapova: I was wondering if that break would be a spark for Sharapova in this set, but Williams brings up three set points and then takes advantage of a net cord to take the first of those chances and put up the first set.

As well as Sharapova has played in that set, you have to wonder what her mind set is going to be as she drops another set against Serena Williams.

Big 'come on' from Williams to end that set too so I guess the coughing and illness is still very much at the back of her mind.


Serena Williams 6-3, 1-0* Maria Sharapova: The pressure is going to begin to build and build if Serena Williams continues serving like this- first game is comfortably held thanks to three big serves and then a big forehand down the line on the run.


Serena Williams *6-3, 1-1 Maria Sharapova: The commentators have just been wondering whether Maria Sharapova 'believes she can win' and are adamant that she does until the final point because of the competitor she is. The problem is that no matter how well you compete, the stats of losing 15 straight times to someone is going to play a part and to put that aside mentally is so tough to do.

Serena Williams has Maria Sharapova on the run again in this service game and the match is taking on a familiar pattern when these two players meet on the court as the heavier hitting from the American takes a toll.

Two more break points for Williams- the first is saved by an ace and the second saved by an unreturnable serve!

Another ace and a big forehand gets Sharapova out of the game and potentially a turning point in the match.


Serena Williams 6-3, 2-1* Maria Sharapova: Big serving has Maria Sharapova guessing a little bit about the direction it is coming in from and it is an easy hold to love for Serena Williams.

Sharapova is going to feel like she is constantly serving the way Serena rolled through the first two service games of this set. That brings its own pressure when you are playing catch up on the scoreboard too.


Serena Williams *6-3, 2-2 Maria Sharapova: Big mistake from Maria Sharapova to not play a Serena Williams mishit that hits the baseline to bring up 15 all.

Another error opened the door for Williams, but big time tennis from Sharapova to stay on serve.


Serena Williams 6-3, 3-2* Maria Sharapova: A huge return winner from Sharapova brings up 0-30 and opens the door for the break which is shut by two aces and an unreturned serve.

Another ace from Serena Williams wins the game and another huge 'come on' from the American which is clearly a response to the Sharapova 'come on' which followed the return winner to bring up 0-30.

If you didn't believe me when I said these two don't get on, that game perhaps highlighted a little of the animosity between them.


Serena Williams *6-3, 3-3 Maria Sharapova: It looks like this could be one of the easier service holds that Sharapova has had in the match as she quickly moves 30-0 up, but Serena Williams is going nowhere.

Some solid defensive play coupled with heavy aggressive ground strokes brings up another break point for the Number 1 Seed.

A very brave second serve prevents Williams from really attacking that break point and Sharapova holds on at the moment.

Serena missed a big chance to bring up a second break point when it looked like her defensive skills had paid off, and another unforced error keeps this match on serve.


Serena Williams 6-3, 4-3* Maria Sharapova: You have to admire the Sharapova mindset to come out of that game when it looked like the break was going to go against her.

A huge error from Serena Williams brings up 0-30 again on serve, the second service game in a row that has happened. A sense of deja vu for Sharapova as two big serves, one unreturned and one ace, levels the game and another ace moves Serena in front.

This time it won't be four straight points for Williams though- and then something completely strange has happened where it looks like Serena has game point but is forced to replay way after the fact.

That leads to a break point for Sharapova, but again it is two big serves that has turned the game around and an ace to wrap up the game.

It turns out Sharapova got the point for hindrance, which was surprising because I didn't notice anything in particular Williams did, but she didn't even make a move to argue the case. Still on serve in the second set, but the scoreboard pressure has to be building on Sharapova who continues to play catch up.


Serena Williams *6-3, 4-4 Maria Sharapova: Tremendous game from Sharapova, even if she did get away with a shocking volley to open it. Hold to 15 at the business end of the set is impressive.


Serena Williams 6-3, 5-4* Maria Sharapova: Anything you can do... Big serving from Serena Williams produce a hold to love and now she is on the brink of winning the Australian Open for the first time since 2010.

Been saying it all set, but pressure on Sharapova serving to stay in the match. She has handled playing from behind so well, but I can't help thinking how the match would have felt right now if Sharapova had forced Williams to serve out the first set rather than being broken.


Serena Williams *6-3, 5-5 Maria Sharapova: The way Sharapova has been handling this second set is impressive- from 0-15, a big second serve helps win one point and a huge forehand down the line helps her move in front.

Lack of first serves is an issue and a double fault means Williams is just two points from the title.

The defence of Williams, which I identified as being one of the key differences between the players that has led to this 15 match winning run for the American against Sharapova, forces an error and match point.

Absolutely stunning tennis from Sharapova has kept her in this set and it was only right that it took that kind of tennis for the Russian to save that match point.

Sharapova has gotten away with another drop shot and holds on- she might not be everyone's cup of team, but Sharapova has played so well and has to be admired no matter how this ends up.


Serena Williams 6-3, 6-5* Maria Sharapova: Some solid defence from Williams again, but eventually she can't keep the ball in play and a sniff of a chance for Sharapova at 30-30.

Take a guess what happens next? Yep, another ace at a big time for Williams to move ahead in the game, but Sharapova not done with this game just yet.

More big serving from the American, this one followed by a heavy forehand down the line, and then an ace to move back to the brink of the title.

This has been a set full of stunning tennis. Engrossing stuff for the play and also the way the two players are trying to dominate with their personalities with the 'come on' shouts.


Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: It would be disappointing if Sharapova was to break down here and lose the match- she deserves the chance to play a tie-break after the effort she has put into the set.

But it does mean coming through one more service game- two errors from Williams' racquet and an ace bring up three game points and it is a comfortable hold for the Russian.

Really good tennis from both.


Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: Clean winner from Maria Sharapova to open the tie-breaker, but the mini-break doesn't last very long after an error from the Number 2 Seed.

Williams returns the favour for the clean winner off serve to move up a mini-break in the breaker and uses a big ace and then a strong forehand to move clear for the first time in this set.

The two switch ends with Williams 4-2 up in the breaker, although Serena will feel she missed a big chance to earn a double mini-break in the final point there. How much more fight does Sharapova have in her?

Mistakes from Serena Williams has kept Sharapova in this breaker, and she does look a little tight at the moment.

There is so much emotion on the court and it is fascinating to see both of these players trying to keep a lid on things! Serena battles through a tough point to move 5-3 up, but another tight forehand error which is very wide of the court and we are back on serve with two to come from Sharapova.

Clean winner off the second serve from Serena Williams and that brings up two match points... Total respect for Sharapova in the manner she saves the first off a huge second serve-forehand combination.

But Serena is serving for the match.

Add to the drama with a let cord preventing the ace winner and a stare at the umpire from Serena Williams who had dropped her racquet! Same serve, another ace and Serena Williams has beaten Maria Sharapova for the 16th in a row to win her 19th Grand Slam title.


Serena Williams 6-3, 7-6: I have so much respect for the way that Maria Sharapova hung in during that second set when she was behind throughout and the battling she displayed in the tie-breaker, but it raises some tough questions for her.

The first is how can Maria Sharapova turn the tide after 16 straight losses to Serena Williams? She produced arguably her best tennis, but still couldn't take a set from the American and there is too much motivation for Serena when she steps on the court against Sharapova.

Williams has been caught cold in Grand Slam tournaments over the last two seasons, but Sharapova won't be someone that will ever have that benefit with their meetings likely to come at the business end of events. Add to that the motivation that Serena Williams clearly has behind her when she sees Sharapova on the other side of the court and it is tough to see this trend changing.

Again it was the defensive ability that Williams has compared to Sharapova and the bigger and more consistent serve that saw her come through. The rest of the game is similar, but those slight edges are enough for Williams to hold the key to winning these head to head matches.

It was a great Final and I hope the rest of the Slams live up to it.

MY PICK: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)

Australian Open Update: 34-23, + 23.66 Units (107 Units Staked, + 22.11% Yield)

French Open Women's Final 2013- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova (June 8th)

The second Saturday of the French Open is the day reserved for the Women's Final and I do wonder if the fans will have been able to recover from the emotional rollercoaster they were taken on during the Men's Semi Finals on Friday night.

The first of those Semi Finals was between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal- it wasn't the best Semi Final for the first three sets, with Djokovic's form particularly fluctuating too much to make it a real contest and an early break for Nadal in the fourth looked to have ended the match.

However, from that moment on, the match took a number of turns as momentum shifted both ways and it was a couple of moments that eventually cost Djokovic the match. The first was his constant frustration with the dried out court not being watered and the second was the moment he ran into the net when the point was almost certainly won at 4-3, 40-40 in the final set... The World Number 1 himself admitted that the match was decided at that moment and I would go a step further and say it was that moment that prevented him holding serve and putting himself just a game away from winning the match, something which I believe he would have done.

One question Djokovic has to have is what happened to him in set three- he almost broke Nadal in the first game, but then proceeded to lose the set 6-1 as he struggled with his form and it did seem that Djokovic had some sort of physical problem. While he hasn't discussed that moment yet, it is something to keep in mind with the third Grand Slam of the year just three weeks away.

The crowd were a little flat for the second Semi Final on Friday, even with home hope Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in action and that did lead to a limp performance from the charismatic Frenchman. Playing David Ferrer was always going to be a much bigger challenge than most in the media made out, especially as Ferrer is very comfortable on the clay courts and Tsonga is certainly better on other surfaces.

Ferrer dominated the match for the most part and didn't make the errors that Roger Federer made in the Quarter Final against Tsonga and it was a very straightforward straight sets win.

Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: If you listened to some of the commentary during the last couple of weeks on both ITV and Eurosport, you would be forgiven for thinking that Maria Sharapova is the dominate player on the WTA Tour in this generation.

However, if you follow tennis for more than just the Grand Slam events, you would be very aware that the Alpha Female is Serena Williams, a player that is very likely to go down as one of the true legends of the Tour.

Serena has dominated Sharapova ever since losing back to back matches against her back in 2004 at Wimbledon and Los Angeles and even the Russian is the first to admit that she has to do something different to change the outcome in this one. Their recent matches have been fairly comfortable wins for Williams when it is all said and done and Sharapova has won just 1 of the last 18 sets they have competed against one another.

It says a lot that she has got to 6-4 or better in 5 of the last 18 sets as Williams has totally outplayed her- Williams hits the ball better than Sharapova, has more power and has the more consistent serve and all of this points to a win for the American, her second in Roland Garros. Sharapova isn't likely to get forward and attack the net and I can't see what she is capable of doing different to change the outcome of this match.

The problem for Sharapova is that she won't feel comfortable doing what she needs to change this match and I think Serena has had her one slip in this tournament that she seems to have in Grand Slams when coming through against Svetlana Kuznetsova. While I think the Russian will have some success at times in this one, it is hard to see how she can do enough consistently to hurt Serena and I like Williams to come through fairly comfortably.

6 of the last 7 matches between these players has seen Serena Williams win very easily and she can add to that with a 62 64 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 19-14, + 8.68 Units (64 Units Staked, + 13.56% Yield)

Tennis Recap (French Open)

The second Grand Slam of 2012 is over with Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the two events and it won't be long until the third Major starts at Wimbledon towards the end of the month.

While the daily picks only produced a small profit by the end of the tournament, catching both winners in the outright markets have really upped the profits at the end of the tournament. I only received a bonus by picking the Men's Champion to lose less than 3 sets at the tournament and Rafael Nadal's serene progress through the draw has also brought that pick in.

Below are a few thoughts from the event and I will also update the profit/loss from the French Open and the overall season results.


Putting Maria Sharapova's Grand Slam in perspective: All of the hype, particularly on the British channels, about Maria Sharapova's completing the career Grand Slam is absolutely ridiculous if you ask me.


It is a great achievement, there is no doubt about that, but it seriously needs to be put into perspective compared to some of her peers including the Williams sisters. First things first, the surfaces no longer have the differences that they used to and that makes it easier for players to make the adjustments when moving from the hard to the clay and then to the grass courts, well at least easier than they used to.


Secondly, this is only the fourth Major that Sharapova has now won and that is far short of the expectations people had when she won Wimbledon at 17. Compare that to players like Justine Henin (7 Grand Slams), Venus Williams (7 Grand Slams) and Serena Williams (13 Grand Slams) and you see there is plenty of room for the Russian before she can be considered alongside the greats of yesteryear.


I also wasn't impressed with some of the commentators comparing Sharapova's achievement to Serena Williams when she won the 'Serena Slam'... The BIG difference is Serena won all 4 Majors consecutively, not over the space of 8 years and that has to be stated- of course, I would revise this whole thing if Sharapova goes on and wins Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open and then we could start speaking about this achievement at the same level as Serena's.




Rafael Nadal is the 'King of Clay': Rafael Nadal completed his seventh win at the French Open and he remains the ultimate player on the surface and I think he has underlined his position as the best player to have played on the dirt in the history of the game.


However, he can consider himself a touch fortunate that the match was called off when it was on Sunday evening as he was completely on the ropes despite being up 2-1 in sets... That break gave him the chance to find his place mentally and allowed him to get back to what he wanted to do.


I still think he needed to finish the match in four sets, something he did do in the end, as I would have favoured Novak Djokovic heavily if it had gone the distance. It was a shame that he couldn't have forced a tie-break to prolong the drama, while a double-fault was the most disappointing ending to the Final.


However, there was enough in the match to suggest that Djokovic should be the favourite to win the event at Wimbledon depending on the draw of course.




Is Roger Federer suffering with some sort of injury: I have said during the French Open that Roger Federer has not looked himself and he did mention that he had a niggle before the event in Rome... My question would be how much is actually suffering?


Federer is not the kind of player that will openly say what is bothering him, but it will be interesting to see how he goes at Halle before making any judgements on how he will perform at Wimbledon.


He is still one of the top players on the grass and he is going to be a real threat if he is fit, but I want to see him remove my doubts before he is under consideration to possibly win Wimbledon.




Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be a real dark horse at Wimbledon: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga surprised many, including me, with his run to the French Open Quarter Finals and he was so close to beating Novak Djokovic that I think the Frenchman could be a real threat at Wimbledon if he has not allowed that defeat to mentally linger.


Tsonga proved last year when he beat Roger Federer in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon that he can really beat the big players on this surface and I think he could take advantage if he gets a decent draw.


His mental resolve will be tested at Queens this week and it will give me an insight into how he is feeling. I also hope Tsonga does not go to Eastbourne as he did last season and instead takes the week off to get ready for Wimbledon and make sure his batteries are recharged... If he does that, I think Tsonga is ready for a deep run.






French Open Daily Picks: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)


French Open Outright Picks: + 18.11 Units (14 Units Staked)


French Open 2012: + 21.47 Units (89 Units Staked)




Season 2012 Update: + 57.98 Units (492 Units Staked, 11.78% Yield)

French Open Woman's Final Pick (June 9th)

We have got down to the final two ladies in the Women's event and while one of the players will not have surprised too many people, the other is a big story.

Maria Sharapova has a chance to win her first French Open and also complete a career Grand Slam, but I think this is more important for her for another reason. I think a win for Sharapova will give her even more confidence that she can join some of the more illustrious names in the history of the Women's game by winning a few more Grand Slams.

Even if Sharapova wins, it will mean she has four Grand Slam titles and that is still a long way short of Serena Williams and a few short of Venus Williams and I think the Russian has the desire to be in the same bracket as those two players. She has lost the last two Grand Slam Finals she has contested in Australia this year and at Wimbledon last year, so there is a mental hurdle for her to overcome.

On the other hand, Sara Errani would be a big surprise as the player to come out of the top half of the draw. Don't be mistaking it as a fluky run as she has beaten some big names like Ana Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Sam Stosur and she is clearly comfortable on clay having won the Women's Doubles title with Roberta Vinci.

Errani has had a wonderful season on the clay and she deserves this opportunity and it will be interesting to see how she handles the nerves that will surely accompany her on to the court, especially early in the contest. It will be key for the Italian to try and hang tough early as Sharapova is a great front runner and she doesn't want to find herself down by a set in double quick time because that is a long road back.

I am hoping it will be a fun Final.


However, I won't lie and will be hoping Maria Sharapova doesn't make the Final too much fun. Anyone who followed the outright picks at the start of the tournament will know we have already picked up 4 units thanks to Sharapova reaching this stage and now we have her at 9.00 to win the title.

Some may want to steady their position by putting a few units on Errani to cover all eventualities, but I think Sharapova is probably going to be too strong so I am going to keep the outright as it is.


MY PICK: No pick- Got Maria Sharapova in the outrights so no need to go back in


FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)

Australian Open Women's Final Live Updates

If you keep refreshing this thread, the updates should come up... Slightly later than planned, as the match has started but let's get it going...

Victoria Azarenka v Maria Sharapova

Victoria Azarenka *2-2 Maria Sharapova

I just saw the end of the last hold for Azarenka, and she takes that form into the next game by breaking Maria Sharapova to love... It was a big hold in the game before as it settles someone down into the match, although she was helped out massively by some unforced errors from the Russian.

Game on

Victoria Azarenka 3-2* Maria Sharapova

Azarenka follows up the break with a very good service game to hold to 15... It was very important that she got on the board early and there are plenty of positives for her in that game as she was hitting the ball hard enough to cause Sharapova plenty of problems.

I am looking for her consistency to continue here and keep the pressure on. This is a big service game for Sharapova to stop the mini-run of games against her.

Victoria Azarenka *3-3 Maria Sharapova
Sharapova wins the first point of the game, but another unforced error (9th of the match) and a powerful backhand off the ground gives Azarenka the sniff of another chance.

Strong serving from Sharapova under pressure, not for the first time this tournament, gives her game point, but another unforced error sends the game to deuce.

There seems to be a pattern developing her- Sharapova is struggling to win the point if the point is extended into a rally.

Two big serves from Sharapova to hold to 40.

Victoria Azarenka 4-3* Maria Sharapova
Another one of those tough long rallies is won by Azarenka to move up 30-0... It definitely feels that the younger player has the edge here when the rallies are extended.

I think Sharapova needs to continue playing the aggressive tennis, but the court is not helping her as there is still enough time for Azarenka to play defence and force the Russian to play one more ball.

Pressure point at 30-30 for the server, but Sharapova fails to return the ball and Azarenka goes on to hold serve after yet another extended rally, finishing with a nice lob after bringing Sharapova into the net.

Victoria Azarenka *5-3 Maria Sharapova
After a double fault leaves the game at 15 all, some impressive defence from Sharapova allows her to move ahead in the game.

The first serve is clearly the key for Sharapova here as the second is liable to breaking down during the pressure moments in game- that is backed up with a second double fault to pull the game back to deuce.

It had looked a comfortable service game as she moved 40-15 before that, but all of a sudden Azarenka has a break point... However, Sharapova brings out a big serve and does very well in dictating the rally and putting away the chance.

Sharapova has found her serve at just the right time at key moments throughout this tournament, particularly in the third set of her Semi Final against Petra Kvitova, but the pressure is still on in this game... So much so that Azarenka has earned another break point- the game lasted 9 minutes as Azarenka once again uses the drop shot to full effect and puts away an easy chance at the net to now get a chance at serving for the set.

Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 0-0* Maria Sharapova
This Final has really been one full of quality tennis in my opinion, with both players hitting the ball sweetly and also defending very well.

Azarenka moves through her game and brings up two set points- she only needs one as another unforced error from Sharapova hits the middle of the net. First blood to the youngster and remember that Sharapova has never gone the distance in her previous Grand Slam Finals, whether she has won or lost.


It seems clear to me here that the court is very much favouring Azarenka here as she is the better mover and the better defender of the two players. With it being a lot slower than many hard courts out there, it means Sharapova is having to do MORE to win points and is making too many errors. Sharapova gets to serve first in this set and needs to stay in front on the scoreboard and see whether that creates any additional pressure in Azarenka's mind and gets her to become a little tight.


Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *1-0 Maria Sharapova
A great statistic pops up to say Sharapova is winning just 18% of the baseline rallies- I am assuming that means shots of more than 5 shots... I did have a feeling the extended rallies were going in favour of Azarenka, but not to that extent.

A huge point now for Sharapova, even early in the set, as she goes 15-30 down on serve. It just seems she can't punch through Azarenka in these conditions and that is two break points for Azarenka.

A HUGE mistake from Sharapova on the first one gives her opponent the chance to pass, which is gratefully accepted, and there is big trouble brewing for the Russian... Now how does Azarenka's mind hold up as she gets close to her maiden Grand Slam win.

Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 2-0* Maria Sharapova
A little nervy start to the game for Azarenka as she opens with a double fault and then a mistake to fall 0-30 down... That is all forgotten as Sharapova dumps another simple ball into the net, before Azarenka dictates another punishing rally to move level.

Best return I have seen from Sharapova since the start of the match and she earns a break point- she dictates the point, but seems to take a backward step in the rally that allows Azarenka to take control and force another error.

Far too many mistakes coming from the Sharapova racquet and perhaps the Russian is looking a bit short of ideas as to how to win this match. A couple more errors and Azarenka holds serve.

Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *3-0 Maria Sharapova
I might be speaking far too early, but there seems to be very little thought in what Maria Sharapova wants to do to win this game other than hitting the ball harder and harder... That is leading to more errors on a court where the ball does not fly through.

Unfortunately for Sharapova fans, I don't think she has a lot more to her game other than hitting the ball hard, and if that isn't working she is in trouble. There are not enough slices in her game, while her net play is poor at best. Maria has always struggled with her movement, and I just don't see how she can get back into this.

Errors give Azarenka a huge chance with another two break points- again she needs just one of those and now Azarenka is in absolute control of this Grand Slam title and the World Number 1 Ranking.

Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 4-0* Maria Sharapova
Big moment here for Sharapova- she needs to find something on the Azarenka serve if she truly has desires to make this a contest.

There is no chance for the former World Number 1 to get into this contest and she is going for far too much. Errors are coming thick and fast, and she looks a little clumsy when being moved around the court- Azarenka is now just 2 games from the title with a double break advantage.

Victoria Azarenka 6-3, *5-0 Maria Sharapova
Another great example of getting Sharapova to move around and winning the point from Azarenka as she moves two points away from a triple break and a chance to serve for the Championship.

This must be frustrating the life out of Sharapova as she gives up another two break points because she cannot penetrate the Azarenka defences and eventually concedes another error.

The first of those is saved after a big serve, but the pattern that has been going on for the last hour continues with solid defence and the eventual Sharapova error giving Azarenka the chance to serve for the title.

Victoria Azarenka 6-3, 6-0 Maria Sharapova
There is no way Sharapova goes anywhere without a fight at least as she crunches a forehand down the line to bring this back to 15 all.

Another crunching groundstroke, this time off the backhand, and Sharapova has a sniff of a chance to extend this match.

Great one-two combination from Azarenka to level the game, but a lucky net cord gives Sharapova a break point... That is missed with another error off the ground from the Russian.

Another wonderful one-two punch gives Azarenka her first Championship point- that's all she needs as another Sharapova backhand goes into the net and we have a new Grand Slam winner and a new World Number 1.

Congratulations to Victoria Azarenka, the 2012 Australian Open Champion and the new World Number 1




It is actually an exciting time for Women's tennis as far as I am concerned now that Azarenka has won her first Grand Slam... With Petra Kvitova at World Number 2, there are finally a couple of Women who will deserve their place at the top of the Rankings, players who have won the biggest tournaments and ones who will clearly be in the consideration for the rest of the Grand Slams this year.

I had a feeling before this match that those two players could have a monopoly on the Grand Slams this season, with Azarenka likely to do better at the French Open, while Kvitova will love the faster surfaces at the US Open and is the defending Wimbledon Champion.

I am looking forward to the rest of the WTA Tour this season, the first time I can say that for a good few years now.

Australian Open Day 13 Pick- Azarenka v Sharapova

So we are in the final couple of days of the Australian Open and it does seem strange that the first Grand Slam of the season is almost over.

I think this has been a pretty solid tournament on both sides of the draw and bodes well for another strong season on the tennis circuit in 2012. With most of the top players now just about ready to take a couple weeks off, I think we are going to be treated to a couple of solid Finals to whet our appetite for the rest of the year.


Women's Final Pick
Victoria Azarenka v Maria Sharapova: I am really looking forward to this Final as I think the two best players in the draw this year are taking their rightful place, while the additional bonus of the winner being crowned the new World Number 1 is brilliant news for the Women's game.

This should be a fascinating match between two players that very much like to dictate the points from the back of the court, and it could be the more consistent of the two that wins the Grand Slam.

I think Victoria Azarenka is the more consistent of the two players and I think her movement is going to be the key to the match as the slower courts in Australia should allow her to get involved in more rallies and also force Sharapova to hit one shot more than she may want to on the vast majority of occasions.

The other real issue here is the Sharapova serve that can break down, especially giving away far too many double-faults and that could mean the Russian is under pressure against her younger opponent for much of the match.

The intangibles here are how Azarenka copes with playing in her first Grand Slam Final, but I think she has a lot of belief in her game and that she can cope with Sharapova.

It is telling that the younger player has won 2 of the last 3 meetings against one another, the other being a Sharapova win when Azarenka was forced to retire. More importantly, it says something that Azarenka has won the last 5 full sets that these players have competed in.

Now I already backed Azarenka in the outright markets so I see no need to load up on her again here- I also feel she is the more likely winner of this match so I will not be laying her price or backing Sharapova to cover the outright pick.

With that in mind, I am actually thinking that I will have a small interest in Azarenka to get the better of her nerves and win this match in straight sets... Sharapova's last 5 Grand Slam Finals has ended in straight sets, either with her winning or losing, while Azarenka has won the last 5 sets they have played.

I think there will be a few breaks of serve in this one, but I believe Azarenka will come through 6-4, 6-2.

I am considering doing a live blog during the Final tomorrow and see how it goes... I will post a link to the thread on my Twitter if I decide to go forward with that and I do hope a few of you viewers will join me.


It will just be a few of my thoughts jotted down with live updates of how the match is going. Hope a few of you guys grab a read tomorrow, even if the majority of you will have access to watch it on TV yourselves.


MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka win 2-0 in sets @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


Australian Open Update: 20-15, + 14.76 Units

Give Heather Watson a chance to shine

It has been a significant overreaction from those involved in the British media following Heather Watson's performance against Maria Sharapova in the 1st Round of the US Open last night.

I would like to begin by saying Watson played solid tennis, but she was helped significantly by a very poor Sharapova performance, yet the British teenager could not finish off the 2nd favourite for the tournament.

There is no shame in that, but to tout her as a potential top 20 player on ONE performance is unbelievably sensationalist.

Personally I would warn Watson that there is still a lot of hard work ahead of her if she wants to progress up the rankings. She is a hustler on the court, but with no real weapons to hurt opponents so it is no real surprise to see her ranked outside of the top 100.

Watson will not be the first teenager to have an standout match at Grand Slam level against a top 20 player to lose her way and disappear of the map. I would not want to happen, but it does and she cannot believe the hype around one performance.

It was only last week she was being dismantled by Petra Cetkovska while winning only 2 games in a heavy straight sets defeat.

For further warnings, she should only look at the American 19 year old, Melanie Oudin, who had a much greater impact at this event in 2009 and was touted as the next big thing but who is now ranked lower than Watson.

In 2009, Oudin reached the Quarter Final here as a 17 year old, beating Sharapova as well as Elena Dementieva and Nadia Petrova before falling to Caroline Wozniacki.

She actually fought back from a 1 set deficit to defeat all 3 of the ladies I mentioned, but her career has been on a downward spiral since then as the weight of expectation has been heavy on her young shoulders. Oudin's best efforts at Grand Slam level since that Summer of 2009 has been to reach the 2nd round at Australia and in this event in 2010.

While Watson is enjoying the limelight, she has to be aware of what is in front of her in terms of hard work if she doesn't want her career to follow the path that Oudin's has taken- the American was exiting the tournament at the first stage on Monday night as a warning to young players what can happen once the limelight is no longer shining as brightly on your prospects.

Tennis Picks August 19th Cincinnati Quarter Finals

It was a mixed bag in terms of results yesterday, but there was brighter news now Roger Federer and Andy Murray have moved into the Quarter Finals to keep my outright picks intact.

The biggest disappointment for me yesterday was Petra Kvitova and I have accepted the Wimbledon Champion is likely to struggle for the rest of the season as the expectation is far greater than she would have experienced before and it does take a little bit of time to get used to that.

The likes of Ana Ivanovic, Na Li and Svetlana Kuznetsova have all had down periods following their first Grand Slam win and Kvitova looks to be joining those ranks.

As far as the US Open goes, I cannot look beyond Serena Williams at this moment in time in the Women's draw as she looks far and away the best player in the World, even with her withdrawal from this tournament. The American looks to be reaching her best and she will be very difficult to stop.

On to the Picks:

Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs Gilles Simon: Andy Murray was brilliant in the first set yesterday as he dismissed Alex Bogomolov, but he will have to keep concentration up for the duration of this match if he wants to make serene progress into the Semi Finals.

Gilles Simon had his third tough match of the week yesterday and has been struggling with a foot injury that required treatment last night as he struggled to serve in the final set.

The Frenchman has struggled against Murray in their recent meetings, losing 6 in a row against him including twice this season, and the fast hard courts should favour the Scot even more.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games vs Tomas Berdych: One year ago, I would have been all over Tomas Berdych with this headstart, but the Czech player's form has really dropped off this season and I can see Federer winning with a bit to spare.

Federer has played very well so far this week and his easy win over Juan Martin Del Potro has stamped that form, while Berdych has regularly got to this stage of a tournament before falling to the better players he faces.

Berdych could cause problems if he is serving well, but I think he is too mentally fragile at the moment and an early break could see this match going in one direction.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games vs Gael Monfils: Novak Djokovic is definitely feeling the pace from playing so much tennis over the last 10 days and looks ready to be taken on, but I don't believe Monfils is the man to do so.

They met last week in Montreal and it led to an extremely easy win for the World Number 1 and I cannot see how things will change this week.

Monfils had an easy win yesterday but that was thanks to a huge assist from Philipp Kohlschreiber who was making far too many unforced errors- this is something Djokovic will not be so generous with.

With the match starting in the evening, Djokovic should be able to prevail with a 6-4, 6-2 scoreline.


Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games vs Sam Stosur: Maria Sharapova has won all 8 meetings with Sam Stosur, the last 4 without losing a set and I think the hard courts favours her game.

Sharapova looked good in beating Kuznetsova yesterday and Sam Stosur has played a lot of tennis recently so fatigue could be an issue.

Sharapova is also losing an average of just over 2 games per set in the last 4 matches they have played against one another and I think she will come through by running away with a 2nd set following a tight 1st.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.16 Units

Tennis Picks July 29th Stanford and LA

Please dont ask me what went wrong with Alejandro Falla last night because I was left scratching my head at his performance and am not sure whether it was down to Falla being terrible or Thomaz Bellucci playing well.

That means I will be taking a watching brief when Bellucci takes on Alex Bogomolov tonight to see where the Brazilian, who has struggled on the hard courts over the last 18 months, is with his game.

It was more doom and gloom for me when Victoria Azarenka lost from a set up in her 2nd Round match with Marina Erakovic- Azarenka took to her twitter page to say that she doesn't know what went wrong with her game.

Now on to the Picks:

Maria Sharapova vs Serena Williams: I have picked the form player here as she is the underdog and I am not quite sure if Serena Williams is back to her best after being taken to 3 sets yesterday by Maria Kirilenko.

Serena has played in Stanford twice before and it is telling that she is yet to go beyond the Semi Final so the tournament is clearly used to perhaps fine tune her game a little before the US Open at the end of next month.

On the other hand, Maria Sharapova was the Runner Up here last year and has played plenty more tennis than Williams in the last 12 months while reaching the Semi Final at the French Open and finishing as Runner Up at Wimbledon in the last 3 months.

The head to head is clearly in favour of Serena Williams, but I just think the lack of tennis and the fact Sharapova has been playing well makes it hard for me to see the Russian as the underdog here.


Ryan Harrison vs Yen-Hsun Lu: I am going to take the American youngster who is playing the best tennis of his career so far to come through and reach another Semi Final on the ATP tour following his efforts in Atlanta last week.

I think the prices are a little closer than they may have been because of Yen-Hsun Lu's impressive win over Marcos Baghdatis, but you could excuse Baghdatis for a lack of tennis and already having a tough time on the hard courts this season. The fact Lu had played in Atlanta last week was also an advantage.

Harrison has looked good this week, and showed glimpses of some real talent last week while I havent quite shaken the belief that Lu is on the other side of the hill and coming down the rankings.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.18 Units

Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA

Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.

I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.

Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:

Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.

Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.

Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.


Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.

Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.

Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.

However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.

He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.

Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.

Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.


James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.

Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.

They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.


MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units

Wimbledon Day 10 Picks- Women's Semi Finals

The Men's Quarter Finals saw what could be one of the biggest surprises in recent Wimbledon history when Roger Federer lost from 2 sets up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

A lot of people are talking of this as being an 'end of an era' for Federer, but I still think the Swiss Master has a Grand Slam in him with the right kind of draw. Tsonga is one of these players that can be tough to knock off when he is playing his 'A' game and I think Federer was unfortunate to run into him in such form.

Tsonga played the big points well in the final 3 sets- just take a look at the games where he broke the Federer serve! Federer was also at 0-30 on the Tsonga serve on at least 4/5 occasions in the final 3 sets but could not manage to move on to a break point, another disappointment for the former World Number 1.

I was surprised to see how much Federer was still able to smile in his press conference and I do believe he will be right back up there when the US Open rolls around in August/September.


The loss for Federer also meant one of my outright picks, the top 4 making the Semi Finals, was also scuppered. However, on a brighter note, my pick for Rafael Nadal to win the Men's event has shortened considerably.


Thursday is the day the Women's event sets up the Final for Saturday. Both Semi Finals look interesting on paper so lets move on to Day 10 Picks:


Petra Kvitova to win vs Victoria Azarenka: Victoria Azarenka has been on the brink of making a really big move on the tour in recent seasons and has now made her first Grand Slam Semi Final. However, Azarenka is in for one tough battle against Petra Kvitova.

Kvitova is clearly at home on the grass and she has come on leaps and bounds on the WTA Tour since reaching the Semi Final here last year. That result clearly gave her the belief that she can compete at this level and she is now having her best year and has moved into the World's top 8.

Kvitova reached the Final at Eastbourne in the lead up to Wimbledon and she has impressed me with the way she is controlling matches using her serve and heavy groundstrokes off both wings.

The Czech player has dropped just 1 set in the tournament, but she has not given up more than 3 games in any of her other sets competed.

Azarenka is also a big hitter, but it is a shame that she is more known for her very annoying noises she makes while hitting a shot rather than her skills on court. While she too has only dropped one set in this tournament, I do think Azarenka has shown mental frailties in the past and that could be a factor in this match.

Kvitova definitely has the more reliable serve, in my opinion, while both are capable of hitting big shots of the ground. The match could come down to which of the players is able to unleash their big shots first, and that is where Kvitova's serve could make the difference.

Azarenka and Kvitova have a 2-2 head to head, but it is the Czech who may have an additional edge there as she has won their last 2 meetings including at Wimbledon last year.


Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets vs Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki has had a brilliant tournament but I feel this is going to be a step too far for the Wild Card. The German has won 11 matches in a row on grass this year, dropping just 2 sets in those wins, but this match will clearly be her toughest challenge.

Lisicki does have a great first serve and will also look to move Maria Sharapova around the court with the use of the drop shot that hurt Marion Bartoli so much in the last Round. However, she has not had a lot of matches on the main tour before the grass court season and plays arguably the most in form player on the WTA Tour.

Sharapova could do nothing wrong in her win over Dominika Cibulkova on Tuesday, but this will be a tougher test. The Russian will need to serve well and try to dominate the rallies with her heavy groundstrokes.

Sharapova has had few problems throughout this tournament and is yet to drop a set. She will be given further confidence from her 6-2, 6-0 crushing of Lisicki earlier this year in Miami and I think she feels this tournament is hers for the taking.

Both of the sets could be close, but ultimately I see Sharapova prevailing and going through to the Final in straight sets.


MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova win @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova win 2-0 in sets @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 13.81 Units (- 0.18 Units Day 9)

Wimbledon Day 8 Picks- Women's Quarter Finals

Awful. Disgraceful. Disappointing... These are some of the words I used to describe my picks from yesterday in my worst day of the tournament so far. Anything that could have gone wrong did go wrong and we have lost a little of the profit we had made during the first week of the tournament.

To make matters worse, my outright picks from the Men's draw are looking in serious trouble as it seems there is a real chance that Rafael Nadal will be forced to withdraw from the tournament. I am hoping he has just got heavy bruising and the shock of the injury affected him more than anything else during his won over Juan Martin Del Potro and I will be keeping my fingers crossed that the MRI Scan comes back negative.

One bright note of the day was the Maria Sharapova pick's position has been strengthened as Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Caroline Wozniacki all exited the tournament on Miserable Monday (I have dubbed it that for this year after the picks seemingly all fell apart). There is still a long way to go in the tournament, but even Sharapova must feel this is her best chance to add to her Grand Slam tally.


Now on to Day 8 Picks as the Women's Quarter Finals take centre stage:


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Dominika Cibulkova: Maria Sharapova has been in good form over the last 6 weeks or so and she was a trendy pick to win the tournament before it began. She is serving pretty well while her groundies look in good shape- they will have to be performing if she wants to get through this match.

Dominika Cibulkova surprised Caroline Wozniacki in the last Round by overpowering the Number 1 seed. The Slovakian's first serve is decent enough, but she can sometimes lack consistency with her groundstrokes and her forehand is particularly vulnerable to breaking down.

This should be a big hitting game but Sharapova has the edge in serve and groundstrokes that should help her overcome this challenge. Cibulkova is definitely the better mover, but she does present more opportunities for her opponents to break her serve and that may make all the difference.

They are tied 2-2 in the head to head, with Cibulkova winning 2 in a row, but all matches have been played on clay courts. The grass should favour Sharapova more.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games vs Tamira Paszek: Victoria Azarenka is a real threat to win this tournament as her penetrating groundstrokes work effectively on this surface. She has come through the draw with little problems outside of Daniela Hantuchova, and may just be ready to make her Grand Slam breakthrough.

Tamira Paszek is having a dream tournament, fighting through the first 4 Rounds. Paszek has been forced to go the distance in 3 of those Rounds and I just feel she has taken advantage of a weak section of the draw.

She has surpassed her run here from 2007 when reaching the 4th Round, but I just feel this is a challenge too far for the young player.

Azarenka is far too consistent as far as I am concerned and should take advantage of a player that had won just 2 matches on the main WTA Tour before the last 2 weeks at Eastbourne and Wimbledon.

Azarenka also holds a 1-0 head to head record when beating Paszek in straight sets in Montreal. That match took place in 2008 and I feel Azarenka is markedly improved since then and will make the Semi Finals with a little room to spare.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 10.33 Units (- 5.18 Units Day 7)

Wimbledon Ladies Tournament Outright Picks and Preview

The Women's tour has really suffered this year in terms of quality, but it does mean that the prices for their tournaments are generally larger than for the Men's. The return of the Williams sisters after several months off is the story as we head into Wimbledon but there are other issues that will be determined in the next fortnight.

Will Maria Sharapova continue her resurgence and recapture the Wimbledon crown?

Will Caroline Wozniacki show why she is the World Number 1?

Will the likes of Petra Kvitova, Julia Goerges and Victoria Azarenka win a Grand Slam for the 'new generation'?

Will any British Women make the 2nd Round of the tournament?


First Quarter
Caroline Wozniacki sits on top of the draw as the World Number 1, but she has been written off in a number of places as a winner of Wimbledon. It is interesting to note she decided to play in an indoor hard court tournament rather than taking any time on the grass and we will see if that was the correct decision soon.

Wozniacki should be able to get through the first 3 Rounds here in the tournament but that is where her tournament could draw to a close as she is likely to face Dominika Cibulkova or the dangerous Julia Goerges. Cibulkova is less likely to provide the problems that will lead to victory, but Goerges can hit through the ball and that will be a problem for Qozniacki who relies more on her defence to win matches.

Even if Wozniacki is still around by the time the Quarter Finals come around, it is then she will potentially see her biggest hurdle in the form of Maria Sharapova. The Russian may have a couple of problems before she reaches the Quarter Finals, most notably in the forms of Lucie Safarova and Sam Stosur.

Safarova is a big hitting left hander that can play at an exceptionally high level when she is on her game and could be a danger in the 3rd Round. Safarova has won the only previous meeting with Sharapova, but doesnt have the same grass court pedigree and I would expect the latter to get through.

Sam Stosur could cause problems with her solid serve for Sharapova, but the Russian has won all 8 previous meetings with her before and I would expect Sharapova to get the job done again.

Sharapova, I would expect, would be too strong for any of her potential Quarter Final opponents and I think she will be one of the Semi Finalists.


Second Quarter
This section is highlighted by Serena Williams, but she has not been given the kindest of draws if I am honest. A potential 2nd Round meeting with Bojana Jovanovski is not as straight forward as it may look, especially considering the lack of court time Serena has had.

Furthermore, a 4th Round match with Marion Bartoli, the winner in Eastbourne, is not to be overlooked. Serena may have won both meetings with the Frenchwoman, but Bartoli has plenty of hitting power and could definitely cause one or two problems for the American.

To make the path a little more complicated, Serena will eventually have to face either Na Li, the French Open Winner and Australian Open Runner Up, Agnieska Radwanska, a former Junior Champion at Wimbledon, Ana Ivanovic, a former World Number 1, or one of the most dangerous unseeded players in Sabine Lisicki, a recent winner on grass in Birmingham.

Na Li is scheduled to meet Sabine Lisicki in the 2nd Round and that could be one of the matches of the day. Lisicki has won their only previous meeting and has shown some solid grass court pedigree as a former Quarter Finalist here at Wimbledon.

Ana Ivanovic has not had the best of times when playing on grass, and I think the 4th Round meeting from this section could be Agnieska Radwanska and Sabine Lisicki.

I feel Lisicki would provide more of a problem for Serena Williams in the Quarter Final with her hitting ability whereas Radwanska is more of a defensive minded player that looks to frustrate opponents into mistakes.

Serena Williams may just get through to the Semi Final meeting with Maria Sharapova, but this is going to be tough for her throughout.


Third Quarter
Victoria Azarenka may be the highest rated seed in this section of the draw, but she could not have been over the moon to see a possible 3rd Round clash with Daniela Hantuchova on the horizon. Both players should get through their first 2 Rounds to set up a mouth watering clash.

Daniela Hantuchova (I have a definite soft spot for her) is one of the form players on the WTA Tour, reaching the Final in Birmingham and the Semi Finals in Eastbourne coming into this tournament. She beat Caroline Wozniacki in the French Open and a recent win over Venus Williams shows she is mentally in a good place.

With a 2-0 head to head record against Azarenka, and arguably the better grass court pedigree, I feel a surprise here.

If Hantuchova can win that match, it will really open the door to a Quarter Final spot.

There her opponent is likely to come from Francesca Schiavone, Andrea Petkovic or the dangerous Ekaterina Makarova. Schiavone has not really had the best time on grass in recent years and I am sure Makarova will feel she can reverse the loss in their only other meeting.

Makarova won at Eastbourne last year before losing to Venus Williams and definitely can play on the grass. Andrea Petkovic should be her 4th Round opponent, but she too has not had the best record on grass courts and Makarova could reverse her only loss to the German too.

The winner of this Quarter is very much likely to come from the Daniela Hantuchova-Victoria Azarenka 3rd Round match. I think the Slovakian is in brilliant form and could achieve her best result at Grand Slam level this year.


Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the draw really has some special players in the mix with Petra Kvitova, Vera Zvonareva and Venus Williams all likely to have realistic ambitions of winning the title.

Vera Zvonareva should get through the first 2 Rounds with little problems but then faces a tough looking match against Tsvetana Pironkova. Pironkova will present problems after reaching the Semi Finals here last year (losing to Zvonareva) and also pushing Serena to 3 sets in Eastbourne last week.

However, the Russian may prove a little too strong in the end and should move on to a 4th Round match with Venus Williams.

Venus Williams will first have to beat Jelena Jankovic in the 3rd Round, a tough match for the elder Williams who has lost to Jankovic on the grass at Wimbledon before. They have a 6-6 head to head record and Jankovic actually won their last meeting in Rome last year while losing just 1 game.

Regardless who gets through that tie, I would favour Zvonareva to get through to the Quarter Finals.

Petra Kvitova should move through to the 4th Round as she has been given a kind draw. Her biggest threat comes from Roberta Vinci, a winner of the Unicef Open in Holland last week, but I feel Kvitova's power will overwhelm the Italian.

In the 4th Round, Kvitova is likely to face the winner of the Yanina Wickmayer-Svetlanta Kuznetsova match. The Russian has won both meetings with Wickmayer in the past, but both have the same kind of level on grass courts.

At this stage, I would favour Kvitova, the Wimbledon Semi Finalist of last year, to come through and play Zvonareva.

This Quarter Final should be an excellent one to watch. Both Kvitova and Zvonareva have 2 wins apiece against one another, but I think the Russian will be the stronger player and get through in 3 tough sets.


Semi Finals and Beyond
The first Semi Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams could determine the winner of the tournament. Both have beaten the other 1 time on grass, although Serena has won 5 in a row on all surfaces.

Serena also beat Sharapova in the 4th Round in a very good match last year, but the fortunes of the two players are reversed this time. Sharapova is the player in form while Serena is the one on the road to recovery.

This could be another intense battle between the two, but if Sharapova can keep her serve in check, I think she will once again be playing in the Wimbledon Final.


The second Semi Final will be seen by the two participants as perhaps their last real chance to win the big prize. Zvonareva has won 4 of the 6 meetings with Hantuchova, but the last 3 have been tight affairs with Daniela winning 2 of those.

Hantuchova is in the form of her career, but it is hard to take her as a serious contender to win the title considering she can get the touch of the nerves. However, Hantuchova may just have been given the final confidence boost to do well after beating Venus Williams in Eastbourne during the course of the week.

Zvonareva has the mental boost of making it to the Final here last year and that may be what tips this Semi Final in her favour.


The Final, as I said, was likely to be decided in the first Semi Final and I believe that will be the case here. Sharapova has the better grass court game, and also enjoys a strong head to head over Zvonareva.

There will be nerves, but reaching the Semi Final at Roland Garros would have helped Sharapova no end, and I think she will win her 2nd Wimbledon title this year.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova win @ 5.5 Various (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva win @ 21.0 BetFred (1 Unit E/W)
Daniela Hantuchova win @ 51.0 Victor Chandler (0.5 Units E/W)

French Open Day 12 Picks- Women's Semi Finals

Day 11 proved to much better and I can now forget the memories from Day 10 when I couldn't catch a cold let alone a pick.

The Men's draw could not have shaped up much better with Federer-Djokovic being joined by Murray-Nadal on what should be a fascinating Friday of tennis.

Rafael Nadal looked back to his imperious best for 2 sets against Robin Soderling, and then showed his strength of character in refusing to buckle for the Swede when the pressure was put on in the 3rd set.

It is also telling that Nadal said he felt he played much better today and we have seen this from him before at the business end of tournaments.

He will meet Andy Murray who made a little harder work of Juan Ignacio Chela than he would have wanted. The injury to the ankle is still not fully healed, while Murray has too many lapses in concentration that will cost him against Nadal.

5 breaks of his own serve in the first 2 sets today must also be a concern for the Murray camp.


The Women's tour has been crying out for a star in the absence of the Williams sisters for almost a year- now they might be getting another familiar face back in the form of Maria Sharapova who looked absolutely dominating in her win over Andrea Petkovic.

Sharapova has not played in a Grand Slam Semi Final for 3 years and her return will be welcome for the WTA Tour. The Russian also became favourite to win this tournament but will have to beat the tough Chinese star Na Li.

I have underestimated Li for much of the tournament, and fully expected both Petra Kvitova and then Victoria Azarenka to beat her, but I have been put in my place both times. Li has reached a Grand Slam Final already this season and obviously feels she can take a step further in this tournament.


Day 12 is all about the Ladies as it is their Semi Final day so on to the picks:


Na Li + 3.5 games vs Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned above, I have underestimated Na Li twice already this tournament and now would much prefer to be on her side in what looks like a winnable Semi Final if I am honest.

Li has played very well against Kvitova and Azarenka in the last 2 Rounds here and obviously feels comfortable on the clay after suggesting it is others who think she is troubled on this surface.

Maria Sharapova showed the very best of her game today against Andrea Petkovic, but it was clear the latter was a little overawed by the occasion and that is something I dont expect from Li. This is also the first Semi Final at Grand Slam level that Sharapova would have competed in for 3 years and so there is a chance she is the more nervous of the two players.

Li also has won the last 2 meetings with Sharapova, both on the Russian's favoured grass, and also pushed Sharapova to 3 sets here at Roland Garros in 2009.

It is possible it goes the distance again tomorrow and hopefully having the games on our side will make the winner of the contest a moot point.


Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Marion Bartoli: Marion Bartoli might be the last French hope here in Paris, but this looks like a tough match up against the defending Champion on the red dirt, Francesca Schiavone.

Bartoli has shown a lot of heart in this tournament as she progressed past her previous career best of the 4th Round to the delight of her home crowd. Bartoli has beaten some tough opponents to get this far, none more so than Julia Goerges and Svetlana Kuznetsova, but Schiavone poses a different type of threat.

It has been blustery in Paris the last couple of days, and Schiavone's touch tennis is likely to make things additionally difficult for Bartoli whose movement is perhaps her biggest issue.

This has been a special tournament for Bartoli, but I remain concerned about her previous lack of success on the surface where bad movement can be exposed (Bartoli is 13-17 on the main tour in clay court events in 2008-2010).

Schiavone also holds a 4-1 head to head record against the French Woman, with their last meeting coming at Wimbledon in 2009. This will be their first clay court match.


MY PICKS: Na Li + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 17.17 Units (+ 4.9 Units Day 11)

French Open Day 11 Picks

Ouch!! That is the only way I can describe Day 10 for my picks which was the worst day of the tournament so far. Both Andu Murray and Roger Federer missed covering the spread by 2 games combined, while Francesca Schiavone fought back wonderfully well to win in 3 sets.

These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.

The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.

The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.

That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.


Now on to Day 11 Picks:


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.

It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.

Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.

Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.

Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.

Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).

Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.

Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.


Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.

Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.

Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.

I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.

Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.

Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.

However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.


I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.

I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.

Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)