NBA Play Offs Semi Final Preview

At the time of writing, we are still to see which two Semi Final line ups we are going to get in the Western Conference, but I think the long nature of the Clippers-Grizzlies and the Lakers-Nuggets definitely gives the edge to the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder who both swept through the First Round and have had plenty of rest, while also having home court advantage.

The Eastern Conference saw the demise of the Chicago Bulls in the most awful of circumstances as Derrick Rose was injured in the first game of their series with the Philadelphia 76ers. The only positive I can take is that the medical advances means an ACL injury like the one Rose suffered is not the destructive force of old and I have full faith the best Point Guard in the NBA will be back to his best after a long, arduous recovery.

Rose seems to have the character to really focus, work hard and the will to get back to being the very best he can- I might not know him personally, but you can see what Rose is all about from his on court demeanour and the way he conducts himself with the press.

With the Bulls out, it looks like the path has really opened up for the Miami Heat to at least get back to the NBA Finals. I was a little surprised to hear them saying that this season is a successful one even if they don't win the NBA title, but that is so far wrong it is ridiculous- the Heat need to win this year to take away all the angst from 'The Decision', otherwise there could be some major work going on in South Beach in the off-season, starting with Eric Spoelstra as the Head Coach.

Eastern Conference Semi Finals

Miami Heat (2) v Indiana Pacers (3)

This was the series that most people would have expected as both the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers came through in five games in the First Round. That is where the agreements will end, as many are then split down the middle as to whether this is a tough series for Miami or another walkover.

Most will still agree that this is going to be a Miami series win (personally I can't see any team in the Eastern Conference that wins a best out of seven game series against the Heat now that the Bulls are done), but the manner could be all important.

You just know Indiana want to make this a tough, physical series- Miami were expecting that and saying as much after game five was concluded against the New York Knicks, while Frank Vogel has fired the first shots for the Pacers by calling the Heat the 'biggest floppers in the League' and also putting some pressure on the officials by openly wandering what kind of series they are going to allow.

The likes of Roy Hibbert and David West will cause big problems in Miami's interior, while the Pacers also have the perimeter shooters that the Heat have generally struggled to defend all season. The three point has been particularly problematic to defend for Miami and that is an area the Pacers will look to exploit by banging the ball down the middle with their bigs and kicking it out to the likes of Danny Granger, Darren Collison and Paul George.

Indiana's biggest problem is that they don't always shoot well from the field and that is going to be magnified against one of the best defensive teams in the League... Then they have to deal with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the offensive side of the court.

Miami won the season series 3-1, blowing out the Pacers in the first two games before recording a close win in Miami and losing in Indiana by 15 points (the last of those was on a back-to-back play).

Prediction: Not going to be easy, but I think the Heat pull it out in 6 games.

Boston Celtics (4) v Philadelphia 76ers (8)

The Philadelphia 76ers are the biggest surprise at this stage of the Play Offs (writing before game seven of the series between the LA Lakers and the Denver Nuggets), but they still have a lot to prove with murmurings of them being 'lucky' to face a Chicago Bulls team that missed Derrick Rose after game one and was also missing Joakim Noah for the last three games.

Both of these teams needed six games to knock off the Atlanta Hawks and the Bulls, and this series is bound to be fascinating as both are Atlantic Division rivals.

Boston looked good at times in their series with the Hawks, but they have been dealing with injuries and fatigue is also an issue for the Big Three. Paul Pierce played through an injury on Thursday night as they closed out the Atlanta Hawks, but he won't have much time to rest with this game set for Saturday to open the Semi Finals.

Ray Allen at least is back in the fold, but Kevin Garnett had to put in a huge shift and tiredness could indeed be a major factor. This is where the Philadelphia 76ers need to try and steal home court advantage as the first two games of the series are scheduled for Saturday and Monday.

I just don't know how much belief the 76ers have that they can get through this series, but they can at least point to the fact that they have won 2 of the 3 games the teams played in the regular season. However, I think the Celtics have too much talent and too many game changers that can score quickly when the going gets tough.

When I look at Philadelphia, I don't know who is going to take a game by the scruff of the neck when they are struggling, while they are far too hot and cold from the field. The 'eye test' says they struggled to beat a Bulls team missing not one, but two key components and I think they will do well to extend the Celtics in this one.

Prediction: Philadelphia need to get one of the first two games scheduled in Boston, else they could be given gentleman's sweep out of the Play Offs- if games one and two are split, Boston in 6, if not, Boston in 5.

Western Conference Semi Finals

San Antonio Spurs (1) v LA Clippers (5)

The San Antonio Spurs are well rested, playing some of the best basketball in the NBA and have home court advantage in this series... Can I make a case for the LA Clippers to spring a surprise in this one? Errr, no!

I think the Spurs have the depth in their rotation that is going to make them extremely tough to beat by any team, and I think the banged up Clippers will see this as a bridge too far in their first post-season since 2006.

The real question should be how far the Clippers can push the Spurs ahead of their Western Conference Finals appearance and I think they are good enough to get to game 6 before going down. I might not think they are going to win 4 of the 7 needed to go through, but I don't want to underestimate a team that has Chris Paul playing the way he has been.

I was impressed with the manner they out-gutted the Memphis Grizzlies in the First Round, but the scoring potential of this Spurs team looks too high and I just think they are likely to be far too strong with their experience.

Prediction: Can't see beyond the San Antonio Spurs here, but I am going to respect the Clippers enough to think it may get to game 6 before the series is decided.

Oklahoma City Thunder (2) v LA Lakers (3)

These two teams have reached the Semi Final stage of the Western Conference Play Offs in contrasting fashion. The Oklahoma City Thunder will be well rested following their sweep of the defending Champion Dallas Mavericks in the First Round, while the LA Lakers just scrambled over the line in a seven game series with the Denver Nuggets.

The Lakers are the older team, but more experienced, although it is going to be interesting to see how they cope with the schedule that has them down to play the Thunder 5 times in the space of 8 days. They will also not have home court advantage in a series that is likely to be played with a lot of emotion after their last regular season meeting when Metta World Peace decided to lay out James Harden with a vicious elbow to the back of his head.

Denver did show Oklahoma City that the Lakers struggle with their defence in transition and I think the likes of Harden, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are going to cause a multitude of problems for Kobe Bryant and his team.

It took a magnificent shooting night from Steve Blake and Metta World Peace to help the Lakers over the line in game seven against the Nuggets and that is not something that is likely to happen too often. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum also cannot afford the sloppy games they had in the First Round series and I think the Thunder are ready to make a big statement of their intentions in the Western Conference this season.

The condensed schedule is unlikely to help the Lakers and I think the Thunder will progress to the Western Conference Finals

Prediction: After watching plenty of these teams in the First Round, I think the Thunder will be too strong and get through in 6 games

MLB Picks May

I can't complain too much about the start to the regular season in the baseball, with a nice healthy profit to end April.

As with last month, I will post all the May picks, whenever I have any, on this one thread to keep a record of the results and let us hope for more of the same from April.


May 1st
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14043-Baltimore-Orioles-at-New-York-Yankees.htm)

Minnesota Twins @ LA Angels Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14044-Minnesota-Twins-at-LA-Angels.htm)

May 2nd
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14070-Kansas-City-Royals-at-Detroit-Tigers.htm)

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14071-Baltimore-Orioles-at-New-York-Yankees.htm)

Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14072-Oakland-Athletics-at-Boston-Red-Sox.htm)

May 9th
It was a bad end to April, and a pretty shocking start to May, that led me to think I need to take a mini-break from the baseball and have a look at my methods of making picks. April as a whole was a successful month and I did wonder if I had perhaps taken my eye off the ball and perhaps started ignoring vital statistics that I had used to make the month so profitable. With that said, I took a week to analyse my picks and feel pretty good coming off that break.


Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14185-Colorado-Rockies-at-San-Diego-Padres.htm)

May 10th
A miserable May so far, although it is still very early in the month... To be honest, the picks have been poor since the last few days in April so hope today brings a turnaround.


Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14194-Cleveland-Indians-at-Boston-Red-Sox.htm)

Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14197-Washington-Nationals-at-Pittsburgh-Pirates.htm)

May 12th
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14223-Seattle-Mariners-at-New-York-Yankees.htm)

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14224-Cleveland-Indians-at-Boston-Red-Sox.htm)

Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14225-Atlanta-Braves-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

May 14th
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14255-Cincinnati-Reds-at-Atlanta-Braves.htm)

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14256-Detroit-Tigers-at-Chicago-White-Sox.htm)

Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14257-Chicago-Cubs-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

May 15th
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14264-Chicago-Cubs-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14269-New-York-Yankees-at-Baltimore-Orioles.htm)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14271-Pittsburgh-Pirates-at-Miami-Marlins.htm)

May 16th
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14280-Minnesota-Twins-at-Detroit-Tigers.htm)

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14281-Cincinnati-Reds-at-New-York-Mets.htm)

May 19th
I took a few days off from the Major Leagues as I just felt the rub of the green was not going for me... The final straw was the FOUR errors that led to FIVE runs against the Detroit Tigers, and that was a sure sign I needed a break from the bad luck.


Hopefully I can end the month in strong fashion and bring the loss back down to a respectable level.


Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14315-Chicago-White-Sox-at-Chicago-Cubs.htm)

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14316-Boston-Red-Sox-at-Philadelphia-Phillie.htm)

LA Angels @ San Diego Padres Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14317-LA-Angels-at-San-Diego-Padres.htm)

May 20th
Just when you think it can't get any worse than a 4 error, 5 unearned run performance, the Philadelphia Phillies decided to out-hit the Red Sox, but leave 9 runners on base, 8 in scoring positions, ground into 3 rally killing double plays, and Joe Blanton gave up 4 Home Runs after allowing 2 in his first 8 starts... That is called pissing somebody off and getting absolutely no luck, urghhh.


I didn't have time to write full previews today as the late finish of the Lakers-Thunder game last night meant I was catching up on sleep, and the Major Leagues are starting early. Still, there is at least 3 hours till the first match starts and the picks can be found in the section below... Here's hoping for a change of fortunes.

May 21st
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14323-Washington-Nationals-at-Philadelphia-Phillie.htm)

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14324-San-Francisco-Giants-at-Milwaukee-Brewers.htm)

May 22nd
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14329-Boston-Red-Sox-at-Baltimore-Orioles.htm)

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14330-Detroit-Tigers-at-Cleveland-Indians.htm)

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14331-Atlanta-Braves-at-Cincinnati-Reds.htm)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14332-Toronto-Blue-Jays-at-Tampa-Bay-Rays.htm)

May 23rd
'Miserable May' continues to taunt me... These four picks will make me decide if I am to take a break for the rest of the month or whether I am still looking at things in the correct manner, but just not getting the rub of the green.


Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14334-Boston-Red-Sox-at-Baltimore-Orioles.htm)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14335-Toronto-Blue-Jays-at-Tampa-Bay-Rays.htm)

LA Angels @ Oakland Athletics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14336-LA-Angels-at-Oakland-Athletics.htm)

San Diego Padres @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14337-San-Diego-Padres-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

May 24th
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14339-Detroit-Tigers-at-Cleveland-Indians.htm)

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14340-San-Diego-Padres-at-New-York-Mets.htm)


MY PICKS: 01/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
01/05 LA Angels - 1.5 Runs @ 2.38 Sky Bet (2 Units)
02/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/05 Boston Red Sox - 1.5 Runs @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/05 San Diego Padres - 1.5 Runs @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
10/05 Cleveland Indians @ 2.38 Pinnacle (2 Units)
10/05 Washington Nationals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
12/05 Cleveland Indians @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
12/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.75 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/05 Atlanta Braves - 1.5 Runs @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
14/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
14/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
15/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
15/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
15/05 Miami Marlins - 1.5 Runs @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
16/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
16/05 New York Mets - 1.5 Runs @ 2.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
19/05 Chicago Cubs - 1.5 Runs @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
19/05 Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
19/05 LA Angels - 1.5 Runs @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 Milwaukee Brewers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 Chicago White Sox @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 San Francisco Giants - 1.5 Runs @ 2.60 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/05 Washington Nationals @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/05 San Francisco Giants @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
22/05 Boston Red Sox - 1.5 Runs @ 2.38 Pinnacle (2 Units)
22/05 Detroit Tigers @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
22/05 Atlanta Braves - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
22/05 Toronto Blue Jays @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/05 Baltimore Orioles @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/05 Tampa Bay Rays - 1.5 Runs @ 2.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/05 LA Angels - 1.5 Runs @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
23/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
24/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
24/05 New York Mets-San Diego Padres Under 8 Runs @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)



MAY UPDATE: 11-25, - 22.52 Units

APRIL FINAL: 26-22, + 25.60 Units

NBA Play Offs First Round Preview

The regular season is over and we have eliminated, well, errr less than half of the teams in the NBA, but this is when the excitement really kicks in as the Play Offs begin.

This will also mean teams are able to get sufficient rest between games and there will be no back-to back-to back schedules which saps energy and entertainment for the fans.

The Eastern Conference looks a little top heavy to me with the likes of Miami, Chicago and Boston rightly the favourites to represent the East in the NBA Finals. Indiana have a good solid team, but lack the real big time player that could turn a close loss into a win.

Atlanta have routinely failed at this spot, although a healthy Al Horford would make them much more dangerous. However, it seems almost clear that the big man is not going to be ready at this stage.

Then we have the likes of Orlando, New York and Philadelphia- of those three teams, the most dangerous is easily the New York Knicks. However, they have been seeded to face the Miami Heat who I believe they match up the worst against and that looks tough for them.

I rule out Philadelphia as they have struggled when playing the better teams all season, while an Orlando Magic team without Dwight Howard is one that would struggle to get into the Play Offs, let alone cause an upset now they are here.

The Western Conference looks a little more loaded with talent and some real dark horses that could cause a surprise.

Like the East, you have to look at three teams when deciding who will be representing the West in the NBA Finals- the Oklahoma City Thunder, the LA Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs.

All three teams have the squads to go all the way, the latter two with a number of years of experience and the Thunder with the experience of reaching the Western Conference Finals last year and having a very good rotation.

San Antonio are the biggest surprise as many thought the shortened season would be hard on their ageing legs, but they have shown a deep rotation and Gregg Popovich has worked wonders to keep all his players fresh.

When you look a bit deeper, the winner of the Memphis/LA Clippers First Round clash look like they could perhaps cause a surprise and reach the Finals of the Western Conference, but a lack of experience and real big time players could account for both. The LA Clippers just don't have the same depth as the best three teams, while Memphis are a solid team yet don't have someone who can really grab the bull by the horns when needed.

It would be unwise to count out the defending Champions, the Dallas Mavericks, but they have had a transitional season and I think they will be much more of a threat once they sign Deron Williams in the off-season (I am 90% sure they will get this done).

Denver and Utah are both good solid teams, the Jazz being particularly young which bodes well for their future, but I can't see either of them performing well enough to win a best of seven series against the best teams in the First Round, let alone going all the way.

Below I will write a few words about the individual First Round match ups and who I think will progress in the series.

Eastern Conference First Round

Atlanta Hawks (5) v Boston Celtics (4)

The Boston Celtics have been on an absolute tear since the All-Star break as they shot up the Atlantic Division to take that title and ensure they finished with one of the top four seeds in the Eastern Conference.

Rajon Rondo has really found his mojo, while the injury to Ray Allen as unearthed a real talent for the Celtics in Avery Bradley. With the likes of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett playing great basketball, Boston are an absolute threat in the Eastern Conference.

However, the Atlanta Hawks have players like Josh Smith and Joe Johnson who match up well with this Celtics team.

The key to this entire series in how many games Rajon Rondo can take over- not just in terms of dimes he dishes out, but if he has his shooting up to par. Every time he does that, I will expect the Celtics to win the game and I think they will eventually get this series, but it will be the closest one in the East.

Prediction: Boston Celtics in 6 games

Chicago Bulls (1) v Philadelphia 76ers (8)

The Chicago Bulls wrapped up the Number 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and I think they will be very pleased with their First Round match up against the Philadelphia 76ers.

The injury to Derrick Rose has given their second unit players the chance to shine and that experience could really help them in the Play Offs beyond this series, but don't overlook the fact that the Bulls are only going places if Rose is healthy.

Philadelphia don't have the star player in their line up, but they have a solid enough team- however, they have really struggled when playing teams with winning records this season and would absolutely need to play at their maximum, with Chicago a little off their own game, for them to extend this series too far.

Just in case the Bulls were not focused, Chicago native Evan Turner was quoted as saying Philadelphia had drawn the 'easier' team in the East compared with having to face Miami, something that seemed to amuse some of the Bulls players ahead of this one.

Prediction: Can't look beyond the Bulls in 5 or less games

Miami Heat (2) v New York Knicks (7)

The New York Knicks were one of the danger teams in the Eastern Conference, but I have always maintained that they needed to avoid the Miami Heat in the First Round as this team is capable of hurting the Knicks on both sides of the court.

The only real hope for the Knicks is that their three point game heats up (pardon the pun) and can get on a roll for more than one or two games. Defending the three point shot has been one of the Achilles heel for the Heat defence all season and the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire can provide the penetration to leave them open for JR Smith and Steve Novak to knock down threes and keep the Heat off balance.

Miami won't be too concerned with the match up having swept the Knicks in the regular season, and they have the likes of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade who will cause New York all kinds of problems.

As a Knicks fan, I didn't want this First Round match up, although the players, like Tyson Chandler, have been vocal in bigging up their own chances- just can't see beyond a relatively easy Heat progression.

Prediction: Miami in 5 games

Indiana Pacers (3) v Orlando Magic (6)

This could have been a really interesting series if not for one major problem for the Orlando Magic- no Dwight Howard... Superman has caused Indiana so many problems in the past, particularly for Roy Hibbert, but his absence is going to be huge for Orlando and I really don't think this is a Play Off team without Howard playing most of the season.

Other issues are surrounding Stan Van Gundy who is likely to be fired even if they get out of this First Round series and all is not well in this part of Florida.

Indiana have a strong team ethic and will be very pleased with this First Round meeting and a chance to feel their way into the Play Offs after pushing Chicago at the same stage last season. There is a strong rotation here and I think they are going to dominate this series with Hibbert and David West dominating inside.

The Pacers actually lost the season series 3-1, but that was an Orlando team that had Howard in the line up- the Magic have always lived and died by the three pointer too, so there is every chance they take a game and maybe two if they get hot from beyond the arc, but the Pacers are likely to be far too strong.

Prediction: Indiana Pacers in 5/6 games

Western Conference First Round

San Antonio Spurs (1) v Utah Jazz (8)

The San Antonio Spurs have to erase some painful memories from a year ago when they were beaten as the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference by the Memphis Grizzlies, but I don't think the Utah Jazz have the same kind of dangerous talent as the Grizzlies and I expect the Spurs to progress.

They had been ruled out as a genuine contender in this shortened season due to some of the ageing legs of their better players, but Gregg Popovich has found the right balance in giving the likes of Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker enough rest, while they have also shown off some of the depth they have in their rotation, making their second unit pretty dangerous too.

All the experience the Spurs have could make a real difference in this series as they are facing a Utah Jazz team that is very young and most of the players are in their first Play Off series. This all bodes well for the future of the Jazz who are just one year removed from trading away Deron Williams.

The likes of Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors gives them size, but they struggled against the Spurs in the regular season, particularly in San Antonio, and I think they will do well to extend this beyond 5 games.

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs in 5 games

Oklahoma City Thunder (2) v Dallas Mavericks (7)

This is an interesting series as it is between the young, up and coming power in the West and the old, jaded Champions who are perhaps looking forward to a new season already.

Dallas were always under pressure when they allowed Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea to leave in the off-season having won the Championship last year and it could a lot worse for them when Lamar Odom did not play anything like the 'sixth man of the year' he was last season.

The Mavericks were clearing space in anticipation of a big off-season this year so this was considered a transitional season for them- they are sure to get Deron Williams, in my mind at least, in the Free Agency market and I expect Dallas to be a real threat again next year.

Oklahoma City can gain revenge for losing in the Western Conference Finals last year and they have two bright stars in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant that can take games away from opponents when they are on form. With Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, and James Harden (as long as there is no long-term effect from the elbow he took from Metta World Peace), but they can blow a little hot and cold.

That shouldn't effect them in this series, but it is something to consider down the line, especially with the potential Semi Final against the LA Lakers on deck.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 6 games

LA Lakers (3) v Denver Nuggets (6)

Metta World Peace is going to be suspended for the next six games and the cynic in me thinks the LA Lakers will deliberately extend this series to at least that amount of game with full confidence that they can beat the Denver Nuggets in either a Game 6 or a Game 7 in this series.

At lot of what the LA Lakers are about starts and finishes with Kobe Bryant, but it is Andrew Bynum who has dominated the Nuggets this season, while the Lakers size is a huge advantage for them in this match up.

The signing of Ramon Sessions has also given them a new look at the Point Guard position and all around I think this is a tough series for the Denver Nuggets.

Denver don't rely on one start any more since trading Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks last season, and they will cause the Lakers problems with the speed they can play at- I just don't think they will be able to dictate the tempo in more than a couple of games and I think the Lakers will be happy to see this go to 6 games before getting the job done.

Prediction: LA Lakers in 6 games

Memphis Grizzlies (4) v LA Clippers (5)

This is perhaps the best series of the First Round in either Conference as both teams are ridiculously closely matched.

The Memphis Grizzlies are a tough, hard nosed team that has the Play Off experience after last season when they surprised the San Antonio Spurs in this Round before pushing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Semi Finals- the issue for Memphis is that they will always hang around in games, but conversely will allow teams to stay close which can be tough to deal with mentally in a long series, something this has the potential of being.

Chris Paul will try and help out his supporting cast at the Clippers as this franchise has not been in this spot for some time, while Blake Griffin, Randy Foye and DeAndre Jordan have not been in this position in their careers.

However, they do match up well with the Grizzlies and I am not sure how much home court advantage will mean in this series considering all three regular season games was won by the road team.

The whole key to the series could be how the Clippers handle their free throws- they are in the lower regions of the NBA, particularly Blake Griffin who is under 60% from the line. Griffin is likely to be fouled every time he tries to posterize an opponent, and even when he doesn't, and that could cost the Clippers the entire series if they don't fix those issues.

Prediction: Toughest series by far, but Memphis in 7 perhaps

That's my thoughts for the First Round of the Play Offs for both Conferences... I will also be making picks for the Play Off series so check those out too.

College Football Week 9 Picks and Previews

The great start to the season always meant I was a little wary that I was going to have a 'down' week at some point and Week 8 proved to be that week as the picks went 2-4.

A couple of the picks were a little unfortunate, but I think I put myself in trouble by offering my 'advice' to a friend, who proceeded to put a lot more money than I recommended on a 4 team accumulator.

Unfortunately, Arkansas were the team that let him down after I had mentioned how they were the one team I was most confident about this week (ooooops).

The top 10 also had a disappointing week compared to the early stages of the season, while we saw some big upsets as Wisconsin and the Oklahoma Sooners both lost their unbeaten records. This has blown open the BCS National Championship game and has left the path clear for some surprising schools like Stanford, Boise State and most importantly the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The Cowboys probably have their destiny in their own hands if they can run the table and win the Big 12, but they have some huge tests in their way, starting with Baylor this week.

And I have still not ruled out Oklahoma being one of the teams to play in the National Championship Game if they can run the table from now and win the Big 12.

This week is a bye week for the top 2 teams in the nation as the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers both get ready for the biggest game of the season so far when they meet in Tuscaloosa on November 5th.

As always, I will update this post as I lock in my picks from the action this week and you can follow me on Twitter where I will add a link whenever I have updated these picks:

Purdue Boilermakers @ Michigan Wolverines Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12217-Purdue-Boilermakers-at-Michigan-Wolverines.htm)

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12222-Arkansas-Razorbacks-at-Vanderbilt.htm)

Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12224-Baylor-Bears-at-Oklahoma-State.htm)

Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12226-Oklahoma-Sooners-at-Kansas-State.htm)

Georgia Bulldogs @ Florida Gators Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12258-Georgia-Bulldogs-at-Florida-Gators.htm)

Clemson Tigers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12259-Clemson-Tigers-at-Georgia-Tech.htm)


MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 13 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks - 10 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 14 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)



WEEK 8: 2-4, - 2.16 Units
WEEK 7: 5-3, + 1.8 Units
WEEK 6: 6-1, + 4.66 Units
WEEK 5: 3-3, - 0.21 Units

WEEK 4: 4-2, + 1.80 Units

WEEK 3: 5-1, + 3.60 Units

WEEK 2: 3-0, + 2.82 Units

WEEK 1: 4-0, + 3.74 Units


SEASON UPDATE: 32-14, + 16.05 Units

English Football Weekend Picks (September 17th-18th)

I am not going to lie- September has not been a very good month so far for me and my picks from the English football coupon, but hopefully things will begin turning around this week.

Below I have my picks from the weekend coupon for games to be played on Saturday and Sunday. If you open the links, you can read my reasoning behind the picks.

I will update the results in my 'Things we learned' post that should on the blog on Monday before I crack on him with Carling Cup picks.


Blackburn Rovers v Arsenal (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11638-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Arsenal.htm)

Aston Villa v Newcastle United (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11640-Aston-Villa-v-Newcastle-United.htm)

Swansea v West Brom (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11641-Swansea-v-West-Brom.htm)

Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11652-Tottenham-Hotspur-v-Liverpool.htm)

Fulham v Manchester City (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11662-Fulham-v-Manchester-City.htm)

Manchester United v Chelsea (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11651-Manchester-United-v-Chelsea.htm)

Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11663-Crystal-Palace-v-Middlesbrough.htm)

Leicester City v Brighton (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11664-Leicester-City-v-Brighton.htm)

Reading v Doncaster Rovers (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11665-Reading-v-Doncaster-Rovers.htm)


MY PICKS: Robin Van Persie to score anytime @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Aston Villa @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Brom @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.70 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Fulham-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace @ 3.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Reading-Doncaster Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)




SEPTEMBER FOOTBALL UPDATE: 6-10, - 3.94 Units

NFL NFC Breakdown

With the NFL just days away, and with our own football currently in the middle of an international break, this seems like a good time to get writing about the upcoming American Football season.

I was worried we wouldn't see any games played this season, but thankfully the labour dispute was resolved and the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints will be good to go on Thursday night.

I have decided to have a brief look at the two Conferences in different posts, just to get an idea of how teams are likely to play this season and I will post my ante-post picks on Thursday morning.

NFC
NFC EAST
Where else to start but what was recently the most competitive Division in the NFL let alone the NFC. This year it doesn't seem to be the case with one team looking head and shoulders above their rivals.


Philadelphia Eagles: If you don't know what the Philadelphia Eagles have been doing this off-season, you need to get your head back in the NFL game. They have made some big plays in the free agency market as they get a team together that is geared for winning now and the SuperBowl is the aim.


Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have come in to sure up the iffy Secondary from last season while Jason Babin is sure to help providing the burst to attack opposition QBs. The Defense may have to play aggressively to cover up the short comings that remain in the middle of the field, with the weakness being at Linebacker and Safety.


Michael Vick will be under a different sort of pressure this season with expectations vastly increased following his performances last season. The Eagles will be hoping he can steer clear of injury, something he is susceptible to with his style of play. Vince Young will be backing him up, while Ronnie Brown has come in from Miami to back up LeSean McCoy.


The Eagles look the team to beat in this Division.


New York Giants: I would have been favouring the New York Giants to be the closest team to the Eagles, but injuries have decimated the Defense during the pre-season. Eli Manning may be a SuperBowl winning QB, but I am not convinced with him and he seems a little too erratic in terms of performances for me.


The Giants could have a decent season if they avoid any further injuries, but the NFL is not that forgiving and I think they will fall away come November.


Dallas Cowboys: This is an interesting team that does not have the expectation of last season that crushed their Play Off hopes before the season got to November.


Tony Romo is back at QB and I expect Dez Bryant will improve on last years rookie performance. The biggest problem for the Cowboys last season was their suspect Secondary and they don't seem to have improved in that department.


However, Rob Ryan comes in as Defensive Co-Ordinator and I expect he will use enough variations and schemes to confuse the opposition enough that they cannot take full advantage of their shortcomings.


I expect the Cowboys will go close for a Wild Card spot at best.


Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan's rebuilding of this once proud franchise will continue this season and I expect things will not improve their 6-10 record from last season.


There are signs that things are on the way up for Redskins fans, but seeing either John Beck or Rex Grossman lead the Offense is enough to put anyone off. Donovan McNabb was traded to Minnesota so I don't really expect this team to be one to hang 30-40 points on teams.


The Defense is likely to keep the team in some games, but I think the Skins will find it tough in this Division to keep up with some high octane Offenses and they are destined to finish bottom of the East this season... However, things are at least beginning to look brighter for the future.




NFC North
Green Bay Packers: The SuperBowl Champions may not have made a lot of free agency moves, but they have got a lot of players back from injury and look more than capable of making another run for the big one. Aaron Rodgers is an exceptional QB and he has plenty of weapons on the Offensive side of the ball that I can see them putting up lots of points.


The Defense is still solid, although they did miss out bringing in Nnamdi Asomugha in the off-season. The Pack look an all round good team and I expect they will be participating in the postseason and they could go deep.


Chicago Bears: The Chicago Bears had a better season than expected last season but the reigning North Champions are not being touted as having the same impact this year. The Defense is now another year older, while doubts remain over the abilities of Jay Cutler to lead the team on the Offense.


The trade of Greg Olsen to the Carolina Panthers was a strange move, and they may be hoping the Mike Martz Offense can spark a revival in Roy Williams who came in after spending time with the Dallas Cowboys.


This is a tough Division and it may be hard for Lovie Smith's troop to make it back to the postseason.


Detroit Lions: For the first time in an absolute age, the Lions look like having a really bright future. The Defense has been upgraded again from last season, when they shut down the Packers in both Divisional matches, and they have a real chance to make some noise in the NFC IF they can keep Matt Stafford healthy.


Stafford looks like a quality QB in the making, but his first 2 seasons have been decimated by injury. He showed enough promise in the games he did play to suggest the Lions have a good future to look forward to, especially with Calvin Johnson as one of the top WRs in the game.


I see an improvement for the squad this season, but whether that is good enough to get a Wild Card spot is yet to be determined and could rest on Stafford's injury issues.


Minnesota Vikings: A turbulent 2010 for the Vikings shows no real sign of improvement this season in my opinion. Donovan McNabb looks like a QB that doesn't have a lot left in the tank, while Sidney Rice has moved on to Seattle.


The Defense is a year older and there will be a lot of pressure on Adrian Peterson to keep the team driving forward.


The Vikings were built to 'win now' when bringing in Brett Favre in 2009, and that window has now closed with a transitional season in the offing.




NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons: The Atlanta Falcons' deficiencies were shown up by the Packers in the Play Offs last season and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back. The team won a lot of close games and that means a slight change in fortune could see them taking several steps back.


There is a lot of talent in the team from QB Matt Ryan to WR Roddy White to DE John Abraham. However, Michael Turner may just have lost a half-step this season at RB, and I think the Falcons will do well to repeat as the NFC South Champions, let alone finishing as the Number 1 seed in the NFC.


New Orleans Saints: The Saints managed to reach the postseason last year as the defending SuperBowl Champions, but a shocking defeat to the Seattle Seahawks kind of summed up their season.


They have made a few moves in the off-season, releasing Reggie Bush and bringing in Darren Sproles to freshen up the RB position, while signing Olin Kreutz and Shaun Rodgers look like good moves.


The team was blighted by inconsistent performances last season, but I think they will win the South this year.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccs were the surprise package of the NFC last season and they were a little unfortunate to miss the postseason as they are in the toughest Division in the Conference (in my opinion).

However, they are a young team and I think they are still a little short of making a splash, and I actually feel they may have a drop off in performance as Defensive Co-Ordinators will have a better feel of what to expect.


Carolina Panthers: Ron Rivera is putting together the Panthers and all eyes will be on Number 1 Draft Pick Cam Newton- I think he has the potential to be a top QB, but his lack of playing time in College along with the long lockout means it will be tough for him this year.


We can expect a lot of running from this team, but it is hard to imagine they will score enough points to win a lot of games... In saying that, I expect them to improve a little from last year although not enough to move out of the basement in this Division.




NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks: Seattle managed to win this Division with a losing record last year and then reached the Divisional Round of the Play Offs after stunning the Saints in the Wild Card Round.


It is hard to get excited about a team that has Tavaris Jackson as the starting QB, although he will at least have the benefit of playing with Sidney Rice, his team-mate from Minnesota.


Will they improve on their 7-9 record? I don't think so this year as the Division looks to be a little better now the St Louis Rams are a year older and Arizona Cardinals have a QB.


St Louis Rams: I am expecting some good things from the Rams this season, especially if Sam Bradford plays like he did last season.


Steve Spagnuola has already got the Defensive unit playing well and I think they are the best team in the Division, although it will be interesting to see how they play with a lot more expectations on their shoulders.


They came close to winning the Division last year, and I think they will this year.


Arizona Cardinals: I liked the move to bring in Kevin Kolb, even at what looks like a high price on first glance, because he gives this team at least a chance of winning, something John Skelton and Derek Anderson did not.


The signing also persuaded Larry Fitzgerald to stay in the desert and I think they will be much improved from last year. However, they have lost some key players like Steve Breaston on the Offense and the Defense is a definite weak point.


This team needs to be going in the right direction if Ken Whisenhunt is still in a job in January.


San Francisco 49ers: It's so hard to feel confident in this squad when they continue to use Alex Smith as their QB- Smith has been given numerous chances over the years since being drafted as the Number 1 Pick overall, and he hasn't been helped by a number of different Offensive schemes to learn in that time, but he looks far too inconsistent to build a team around.


The Defense is a tough unit, but they can only do so much to keep the 49ers in games.


Jim Harbaugh will need time to turn the team around after a decade of decadence- I expect they will look good in a few games but still fail to reach 0.500 for the season.




WINNERS
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Green Bay Packers
NFC South: New Orleans Saints
NFC West: St Louis Rams


Wild Cards: Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys

Tennis Picks June 6th 2011

I am not making any outright picks from the tournaments at Queens, Halle, Birmingham and Copenhagen simply because it can be a bit of a minefield determining which players will pull out of events the week after a Grand Slam. There is also an additional problem of players trying not to peak too early with another Grand Slam due to start in 2 weeks time.

Therefore, I will mainly stick to making a few plays a day (where possible) as I try to keep the bank going before Wimbledon starts.

Queens, Halle and Birmingham are all grass court tournaments, Copenhagen will be played on an indoor hard court.


Queens
TREBLE: Feliciano Lopez vs Dmitry Tursunov, James Ward vs Daniel Cox, and Sam Querrey vs Kei Nishikori: All 3 of these Men picked should come through their individual tests tomorrow, although I am limiting this to a 1 unit pick as all of the players can have their off days.

Feliciano Lopez meets a good player on the grass courts, but one who has struggled with injury in recent seasons and also on the main tour this season.

James Ward has far more experience of playing in these types of matches than Daniel Cox and I expect him to show that.

Sam Querrey is the defending Champion here and has all the tools to make himself a tough grass court player. He has also picked up a little bit of form of late and has had plenty of time to get used to playing on the surface since being knocked out of the French Open.

Nishikori is a tough player, but has lost his way a little this season and is still trying to learn what Brad Gilbert is telling him.


Halle
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets vs Potito Starace: Neither one of these players has a strong grass court pedigree, but Starace's is far worse. In fact the Italian has lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface over the last few seasons, his only win coming courtesy of a retirement.

Igor Andreev can at least say he has reached the 4th Round at Wimbledon before, and he also holds a 6-1 head to head record over Starace.

Andreev has won the last 4 meetings between the two players, taking 9 sets and losing 1, while 5 of the wins have come on clay, Starace's favourite surface.

The first set could be tight, but I think Andreev has all the tools to beat Starace here. If he takes the first set, the Italian may just begin looking forward to ending this small part of the calender on the ATP Tour.


MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez, James Ward and Sam Querrey Treble @ 3.02 BetFred (1 Unit)
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets @ 2.2 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Overall Season Profit/Loss: + 37.02 Units

French Open Day 12 Picks- Women's Semi Finals

Day 11 proved to much better and I can now forget the memories from Day 10 when I couldn't catch a cold let alone a pick.

The Men's draw could not have shaped up much better with Federer-Djokovic being joined by Murray-Nadal on what should be a fascinating Friday of tennis.

Rafael Nadal looked back to his imperious best for 2 sets against Robin Soderling, and then showed his strength of character in refusing to buckle for the Swede when the pressure was put on in the 3rd set.

It is also telling that Nadal said he felt he played much better today and we have seen this from him before at the business end of tournaments.

He will meet Andy Murray who made a little harder work of Juan Ignacio Chela than he would have wanted. The injury to the ankle is still not fully healed, while Murray has too many lapses in concentration that will cost him against Nadal.

5 breaks of his own serve in the first 2 sets today must also be a concern for the Murray camp.


The Women's tour has been crying out for a star in the absence of the Williams sisters for almost a year- now they might be getting another familiar face back in the form of Maria Sharapova who looked absolutely dominating in her win over Andrea Petkovic.

Sharapova has not played in a Grand Slam Semi Final for 3 years and her return will be welcome for the WTA Tour. The Russian also became favourite to win this tournament but will have to beat the tough Chinese star Na Li.

I have underestimated Li for much of the tournament, and fully expected both Petra Kvitova and then Victoria Azarenka to beat her, but I have been put in my place both times. Li has reached a Grand Slam Final already this season and obviously feels she can take a step further in this tournament.


Day 12 is all about the Ladies as it is their Semi Final day so on to the picks:


Na Li + 3.5 games vs Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned above, I have underestimated Na Li twice already this tournament and now would much prefer to be on her side in what looks like a winnable Semi Final if I am honest.

Li has played very well against Kvitova and Azarenka in the last 2 Rounds here and obviously feels comfortable on the clay after suggesting it is others who think she is troubled on this surface.

Maria Sharapova showed the very best of her game today against Andrea Petkovic, but it was clear the latter was a little overawed by the occasion and that is something I dont expect from Li. This is also the first Semi Final at Grand Slam level that Sharapova would have competed in for 3 years and so there is a chance she is the more nervous of the two players.

Li also has won the last 2 meetings with Sharapova, both on the Russian's favoured grass, and also pushed Sharapova to 3 sets here at Roland Garros in 2009.

It is possible it goes the distance again tomorrow and hopefully having the games on our side will make the winner of the contest a moot point.


Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Marion Bartoli: Marion Bartoli might be the last French hope here in Paris, but this looks like a tough match up against the defending Champion on the red dirt, Francesca Schiavone.

Bartoli has shown a lot of heart in this tournament as she progressed past her previous career best of the 4th Round to the delight of her home crowd. Bartoli has beaten some tough opponents to get this far, none more so than Julia Goerges and Svetlana Kuznetsova, but Schiavone poses a different type of threat.

It has been blustery in Paris the last couple of days, and Schiavone's touch tennis is likely to make things additionally difficult for Bartoli whose movement is perhaps her biggest issue.

This has been a special tournament for Bartoli, but I remain concerned about her previous lack of success on the surface where bad movement can be exposed (Bartoli is 13-17 on the main tour in clay court events in 2008-2010).

Schiavone also holds a 4-1 head to head record against the French Woman, with their last meeting coming at Wimbledon in 2009. This will be their first clay court match.


MY PICKS: Na Li + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 17.17 Units (+ 4.9 Units Day 11)

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Prediction

Then there were two... Many would have picked the Miami Heat to be one of those two left standing, but the Chicago Bulls were the surprise team of the NBA this season. Derrick Rose has carried this team on his back and was deservedly the MVP, but this is a huge challenge in the form of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

People feel this could be a really close series, but I think the Heat have a clear edge and the young Bulls will struggle under the pressures Miami can create.

I know the Bulls won all 3 regular season meetings, but Miami are playing much better now and all 3 losses came by a combined 8 points. Where the Heat were fallen down towards the end of games in the regular season, they have been closing strongly throughout this Play Offs.

Derrick Rose causes a matchup problem for the Heat, but I struggle to see how the Bulls contain both James and Wade who had big games against the Boston Celtics.

For the Bulls to win 4 of 7 games, they need to shoot very well from the 3 point range and also take advantage of their depth when the benches are on the court. Derrick Rose needs to be more efficient with the ball and the Defense needs to play at their regular season level rather than Play Off version.

For the Heat, it will all be won and lost in the hands of their Big Three. When these guys are on, the Heat are very hard to stop. The likes of Joel Anthony continue playing very effectively, but the series could come down to how many shots the likes of Mike Bibby, James Jones, Mario Chalmers and Mike Miller can make when they are open from the 3 point line.

The series should be fun to watch, but I cant look beyond the Miami Heat who are playing some really good stuff. With the Bulls having home court advantage, it is entirely possible the Heat will look to win just 1 of the first 2 Games of the series in the Windy City, and then close the show at home.

I'll pick the Miami Heat to come through in 6 Games

MY PICK: Miami Heat - 1.5 Games in the Series @ 2.1 (Ladbrokes)

NBA Play Offs- 1st Round Predictions

Finally the 82 games in the regular season are finished and the Play Offs are here. There are a number of intriguing series in the 1st Round, while many will also be salivating at the prospect of some very interesting Semi Finals and Finals over the next 2 months.

Who will win? I don't really know at the moment, there are many teams with real potential. A dark horse could be the young and very talented Oklahoma City Thunder, but they must first negotiate a tough 1st Round series with the flying Denver Nuggets.

The LA Lakers and Boston Celtics cannot be ruled out even though they limped into the Play Offs, while both Number 1 seeds in Chicago and San Antonio should be live players.

And then there is the Miami Heat...

But first, all teams have to negotiate their way through to the latter stages and that means it is time for 1st Round Predictions!


Eastern Conference 1st Round Predictions
Chicago Bulls (1) v Indiana Pacers (8): This should be a clear cut series for the Chicago Bulls if they can hold their nerves together and play up to the expectations the fans now have on the team. The likes of Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah should be too strong for Indiana, the only team with a losing record in the Play Offs.

The Pacers may be able to get a split in the 2 games played on their home court, but the Bulls should come through in 4 or 5 games.


Miami Heat (2) v Philadelphia 76ers (7): The Miami Heat have negotiated the regular season with one goal in mind and that was to be getting ready to really play some ball in the Play Offs. They have won all 3 games against the 76ers in the regular season, but 2 of those game during Phili's tough start to the season.

The 76ers will need Lou Williams back in the rotation sooner rather than later to help them out, but eventually Miami's class will tell and the Heat will get warmed up with a series win in 5 games.


Boston Celtics (3) v New York Knicks (6): Boston's end to the season made their decision to trade away Kendrick Perkins look even more surprising and could cost them the chance to reach the Finals for the 2nd year in succession. However, while many are tipping this as the surprise of the 1st Round, I think the Celtics still have a little too much know-all for the new look Knicks.

The acquisition of Carmelo Anthony makes the Knicks an attractive team to watch, and he and Amare Stoudemire can take games away from teams, but Defense wins Championships and that is an area that will let them down. I can see the Knicks pushing Boston to 6 games before bowing out.


Orlando Magic (4) v Atlanta Hawks (5): The Atlanta Hawks beat the Magic 3-1 in the regular season, but must still have a few nightmares of their 4-0 Semi Final loss last season to these same opponents.

Atlanta have really been struggling down the stretch and there are plenty of accusations of players quitting in games. Orlando themselves have been a Jekyll and Hyde team since blowing up their roster and bringing in the likes of Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas and it is hard to take them completely seriously when the latter gets as many minutes as he does.

This is the hardest series to call in the East in my opinion, and I have a sneaky feeling the Hawks may take this in 7 games.


Western Conference 1st Round Predictions
San Antonio Spurs (1) v Memphis Grizzlies (8): The West is loaded with a string of strong series, but this could be the one that has most people shocked. San Antonio only just fell short of the best record in the NBA, but people are beginning to worry that they are showing their age as key players like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all struggled with injuries down the stretch.

Add to that the fact that they play a young, fast, athletic team like the Grizzlies and the potential for a 1st Round shock is definitely in play.

Memphis were so confident of this match up that they deliberately tanked games down the stretch to ensure they play the Spurs... That confidence may just see them push San Antonio all the way here to 7 games.


LA Lakers (2) v New Orleans Hornets (7): The LA Lakers went on a 17-1 run after the All Star break which had people effectively crowning them as the Western Champions- however, they have not been so dominating to close the season and now the doubters are out in force again.

The Lakers should be happy to face the New Orleans Hornets, arguably the weakest team in the Western Conference Play Offs. LA won the season series 4-0 and the Hornets are missing David West... Lakers take this in 4 games.


Dallas Mavericks (3) v Portland Trail Blazers (6): Another team that is happy with their match up is the Portland Trail Blazers who play a Dallas team that they beat in their regular season series. With the Rose Garden being a really tough arena to visit, Portland definitely will feel they have the beating of a Dallas team that finished a little up and down in the regular season.

The Mavericks have lost in this Round in 3 of the last 4 Play Off appearances they have had, and their deep squad could be well matched by Portland's.

Much like the San Antonio series, this one may just be decided in 7 games... This time the underdog Portland team comes up trumps, winning in Dallas to secure the series.


Oklahoma City Thunder (4) v Denver Nuggets (5): As you may know, I am pretty high on the Thunder and really believe they can go deep if they handle the pressure of being the favourites in a series rather than the loveable underdogs. The trade for Kendrick Perkins looks an inspired decision and makes Oklahoma City a tough series for any team in the West.

Denver are another who made a big decision by trading away Carmelo Anthony and they too have fired since then as they have a number of high quality players, even if none of them are quite up to the Superstar label just yet. The Nuggets have the third winningest record since the trade deadline, but notably they have lost 2 times to Oklahoma City in that time.

The Thunder are likely to have one too many questions for Denver here and will come through in 6 games.


The next couple of weeks will show us how the 1st Round pans out and I will be back for an update in to my Semi Final feels.

Remember to check out http://www.goonersguide.com/ where I will be putting up my NBA picks for individual games throughout the Play Offs. I have over 11 Units of profit from the last 2 months of the regular season and hope to build that up further before a potential lockout season next year.