Tennis Picks July 12th

It was disappointing to see Gilles Simon lose out to Albert Montanes last night as that ended my outright interest in the Stuttgart tournament at the first hurdle and also saw the picks begin badly this week.

Hopefully, tomorrow brings a better reward so on to the Picks:


Double: Potito Starace vs Julian Reister and Igor Andreev vs Diego Junqueira: I am picking these two men as they have far more clay court experience, and play at a higher level on a consistent basis respectively.

Potito Starace's main body of good work comes on the clay courts and 85% of his wins in the last 4 seasons have been on clay courts. He has also won 74% of his matches on clay in that time and comes in off the back of Davis Cup success with Italy.

Reister has lost 10 of his last 11 matches on all surfaces, but does favour the clay. Unfortunately, the main tour looks a little too good for him at this time and he now plays a player that does the majority of his damage on this surface.

Igor Andreev has never really fulfilled the potential he clearly has, but the majority of his success remains on the clay courts. He might not have had to go through 3 Rounds of Qualifiers as his opponent has, and that is a slight concern as he has not played since the first week of Wimbledon.

In saying that, Diego Junqueira has not won on the main tour in 2 years and has been mainly playing on the Challenger tour. While he has grown up on the clay, I expect Andreev will be too strong.


Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe: This looks a mismatch on paper, but Nikolay Davydenko is not the player of 18 months ago and faces a young hungry German player here.

Davydenko has won in Munich already this season, but comes in to the match in poor form and will need to pick his game up early. However, Stebe has not played an opponent like Davydenko, a player that can out hustle and grind down the best of opponents.

I just think Davydenko will eventually be too consistent for the novice and pull away for a 2 set win.


Jeremy Chardy vs Tobias Kamke: I should have learnt my lesson in backing short priced French players after Richard Gasquet and Gilles Simon have let me down in the last few days, but I am going to the well again, mainly because I want to oppose Kamke.

Kamke will have been travelling back from the United States after reaching a Semi Final on the grass of Newport so it could be an adjustment for him mentally in this game.

Add to these factors the issue of Kamke struggling on clay so far in his career, and the pendulum swings towards Chardy here.

Chardy himself has struggled a little bit on the slower surface in his last 2 seasons, but has previously found success on the clay courts.

As I said, I am not the biggest fan of short priced French players, but the odds are just tempting enough on this occasion.


MY PICKS: Potito Starace and Igor Andreev Double @ 1.82 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nikolay Davydenko - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 1.61 Stan James (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units

Tennis Picks June 6th 2011

I am not making any outright picks from the tournaments at Queens, Halle, Birmingham and Copenhagen simply because it can be a bit of a minefield determining which players will pull out of events the week after a Grand Slam. There is also an additional problem of players trying not to peak too early with another Grand Slam due to start in 2 weeks time.

Therefore, I will mainly stick to making a few plays a day (where possible) as I try to keep the bank going before Wimbledon starts.

Queens, Halle and Birmingham are all grass court tournaments, Copenhagen will be played on an indoor hard court.


Queens
TREBLE: Feliciano Lopez vs Dmitry Tursunov, James Ward vs Daniel Cox, and Sam Querrey vs Kei Nishikori: All 3 of these Men picked should come through their individual tests tomorrow, although I am limiting this to a 1 unit pick as all of the players can have their off days.

Feliciano Lopez meets a good player on the grass courts, but one who has struggled with injury in recent seasons and also on the main tour this season.

James Ward has far more experience of playing in these types of matches than Daniel Cox and I expect him to show that.

Sam Querrey is the defending Champion here and has all the tools to make himself a tough grass court player. He has also picked up a little bit of form of late and has had plenty of time to get used to playing on the surface since being knocked out of the French Open.

Nishikori is a tough player, but has lost his way a little this season and is still trying to learn what Brad Gilbert is telling him.


Halle
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets vs Potito Starace: Neither one of these players has a strong grass court pedigree, but Starace's is far worse. In fact the Italian has lost 6 of his last 7 matches on the surface over the last few seasons, his only win coming courtesy of a retirement.

Igor Andreev can at least say he has reached the 4th Round at Wimbledon before, and he also holds a 6-1 head to head record over Starace.

Andreev has won the last 4 meetings between the two players, taking 9 sets and losing 1, while 5 of the wins have come on clay, Starace's favourite surface.

The first set could be tight, but I think Andreev has all the tools to beat Starace here. If he takes the first set, the Italian may just begin looking forward to ending this small part of the calender on the ATP Tour.


MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez, James Ward and Sam Querrey Treble @ 3.02 BetFred (1 Unit)
Igor Andreev win 2-0 in sets @ 2.2 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Overall Season Profit/Loss: + 37.02 Units