Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 13th August)

The Tennis Gods must have read my complaints about the number of players retiring when about to bring in a winning selection for these pages after Jakub Mensik withdrew from his match when well on the way to losing on Tuesday.

The imbalance is still there, but it made a change after what has been happening over the last few days and Mensik was clearly not going to be able to compete any better than those who have decided to retire mid-match.

Conditions have been very tough in Cincinnati and that has impacted some of the quality of tennis- Tuesday night ended with a deluge of rain and Wednesday is supposed to be another potentially wet day, which will help, although it is still very hot in this part of the world and the temperatures will be very high over the weekend into the Monday scheduled Final.

We have seen players struggling with the North American heat at this event and at the US Open in the past and that obviously makes it tougher to make Picks- you just don't always know who will handle the heat the best and be able to put their best tennis on the court on any given day, especially when conditions have been as brutal as they have at this Masters event.

Wednesday was supposed to have all of the ATP Fourth Round matches played on one day, and so the winner of the Alexander Zverev-Brandon Nakashima match will have to play twice, rain permitting. They conclude the match earlier in the day with Zverev needing to serve out the match, but the break in play will have snapped the momentum he had picked up.

The total from the tournament will be added to the Thursday thread once the final two selections are completed- Zverev needs to serve out the match to ensure a profitable return from the day, while Jessica Pegula needs a 6-2 or better set to cover her own handicap mark having won the second set after losing an opening tie-breaker.

There is one selection from the matches that have been scheduled for the day and that is from the ATP Masters Fourth Round.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 2.5 games v Benjamin Bonzi: There has not been much to write home about when it comes to the hard court tournaments played by Benjamin Bonzi this year, but that is not the case in Cincinnati.

After coming through a couple of tight matches and perhaps being on the right side of some fortune, Bonzi produced his best match against Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Backing that up is the challenge as he prepares to face Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has quietly moved through the draw and deserves to be set as a favourite in this Fourth Round match.

The Canadian was clearly the better player against Arthur Rinderknech in the last Round, even if the latter was struggling the conditions, and the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve should be the difference maker in this match up. He was wasteful when it came to converting the Break Point chances, as was Tsitsipas against Benjamin Bonzi in the last Round, but the sheer number of opportunities eventually was beginning to tell on the scoreboard.

Doing the same here should give the higher Ranked player the edge and his overall hard court performances through the course of the year suggest Felix Auger-Aliassime should be able to move through to the Quarter Final.

Benjamin Bonzi is playing with confidence, which will help, but he is likely to be put under pressure by the Auger-Aliassime serve and that could eventually see his own game snap at key times.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Premier League Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 2 (August 13-15)

That truly was a disappointing Sunday at Old Trafford.

Losing is one thing, but seeing nine of the eleven starters from last season underlined the terrible transfer window that Manchester United have sleepwalked through and I do think Erik ten Hag may be regretting ever taking over and not listening to Louis Van Gaal who was prepared to warn him about the state of the club.

I will have more on Manchester United ahead of GameWeek 3 and the big fixture against the old rivals from down the M62.

Premier League Picks GameWeek 2

Aston Villa v Everton Pick: Two former England international midfield team-mates will be managing against one another for the first time when Steven Gerrard's Aston Villa host Frank Lampard's Everton.

While both have been given early chances with big name English clubs, there is a pressure building on both.

Steven Gerrard has spent quite a lot of money as manager of Aston Villa, but his win-loss-draw record is pretty poor and the 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth last weekend has to be concerning. Losing is one thing, but Aston Villa looked really poor on the day and it is imperative they bounce back and earn a victory this weekend.

Tougher games are going to be coming up for Aston Villa and so another setback could really see things begin to spiral. The fallout of removing Tyrone Mings as Captain and then leaving the English World Cup hopeful on the bench will be felt by Gerrard if his team keep failing to produce consistent winning efforts, while Aston Villa's poor home record last season will also add to the pressure.

Frank Lampard is not going to have it any easier- he is in charge of an Everton team that barely avoided relegation and who look to have serious questions to answer in the final third. Bringing in Conor Coady and Amadou Onana look like shrewd bits of business, but the injury prone Dominic Calvert-Lewin means Everton are short in the final third and may have to go with a 'false nine' system again.

It didn't really work against Chelsea and Lampard will be feeling the pressure if Everton make a poor start to the season.

The television cameras will arrive at Villa Park looking for some drama and I do think this has the makings of a tense clash.

However, I have to still believe that Aston Villa will be improved this season with the signings they have made and I expect a much better performance all around than the one produced in the defeat at Bournemouth. The home team have attacking talent that should be able to cause problems for injury-hit Everton and I do think Aston Villa were secure enough defensively to be able to contain their visitors.

Most believed Chelsea were not quite at their best last week, but they still managed to create plenty of chances against Everton and that has to be a concern. Conor Coady will give the team a solid partner for James Tarkowski at the heart of the defence, but there are still some problems in the squad and Aston Villa may have just enough to secure the three points behind their own attacking threats.

Aston Villa do look slightly short in the market, but I think that is much more down to the problems Everton are having and I do expect The Villains to be able to expose some of the softness associated with this current group of players in the Everton squad.

Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: A couple of seasons ago you would have likely seen many predict that Leicester City would finish above Arsenal at the beginning of a campaign, but those times have changed.

A strong summer of recruitment to back up their 5th place finish in the Premier League was followed by a good 0-2 win at Crystal Palace last week and that will have given Arsenal fans plenty of positive vibes to take into the first home game of the campaign. Mikel Arteta is getting a tune out of his young players and the fixture list is one that could see Arsenal build momentum into the campaign.

With their two main London rivals facing one another this weekend, Arsenal can get an early leg up on either Chelsea or Tottenham Hotspur. And after winning 13 home Premier League games last season, Arsenal will certainly feel they have the quality and the attacking output to hurt a Leicester City squad that has missed being able to add fresh faces.

Brendan Rodgers implied they needed to do that at the end of a disappointing season, but it sounds like Leicester City are balancing the books and even keeping the current players will be a challenge. Both Wesley Fofana and James Maddison have been linked with big money moves away from the King Power Stadium and these rumours will hurt all the more after the 2-2 draw with Brentford last Sunday.

Leicester City were 2-0 up that day, but conceded twice in the second half and the defensive vulnerabilities remain. They conceded the most goals in the top half last season and only six teams conceded more than Leicester City in the entire Premier League, which adds to the concerns of blowing the lead in the manner they did in their opening fixture.

Poor away performances hurt Leicester City throughout the 2021/22 campaign and Arsenal have really gotten the better of them in their most recent League fixtures.

You don't want to make sweeping statements from one League fixture played, but I do think Arsenal are the stronger of the two teams going into this season. While the transfer window is open, Leicester City fans may remain a little worried about the potential make up of the squad, but this would be a tough game anyway considering how well Arsenal have played at home over the last twelve months.

Arsenal have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 8 Premier League games overall, while they managed to reach that total in 12 of 19 home League fixtures last season. Facing this vulnerable Leicester City defence should only help and I think the home team likely win in a fixture that should feature at least two goals.

Brighton v Newcastle United Pick: When the England international job is next available, you have to figure the likes of Graham Potter and Eddie Howe will be high on the shortlist put together by the Football Association.

Two English managers continue to produce teams that play very eye-pleasing football, but both Potter and Howe have also produced the results needed to put Brighton and Newcastle United in strong positions.

Graham Potter has been doing a fantastic job with Brighton for some time and you would hope that some of the 'boos' heard after a few of the home games last season will all but disappear. The manager wasn't happy about those, but the fans were well and truly behind Potter in the 1-2 win over Manchester United to open the season and the first home game of the season should produce a very positive atmosphere for Brighton.

They have not won three home Premier League games in a row since November 2019, but Brighton will feel it is entirely possible to do that here. However, they will have plenty of respect for a much improved Newcastle United team who were very comfortable winners last weekend when hosting Nottingham Forest.

Eddie Howe has really turned things around for this group of players by improving those who had been here under the previous manager, but also adding the right talent and character to the first eleven. Since he arrived, Newcastle United have produced top six form in the Premier League and they have won 5 of their last 10 away League games.

It makes them dangerous and deserving of plenty of respect and I do think Newcastle United will cause problems for Brighton. While the win at Old Trafford has to be given every credit in the world, you cannot ignore the fact that Manchester United did create some strong openings and Newcastle United have a player in Callum Wilson who can punish the home team.

Losing a couple of key performers from the defensive side of their football last season will hurt Brighton and Newcastle United have only failed to score in 3 of their last 11 away Premier League games. Two of those failures were at Stamford Bridge and the Etihad Stadium so Newcastle United will feel they can do enough to breach the Brighton defences, although 3 away clean sheets all season will offer the home team plenty of encouragement when getting forward too.

When these teams met at St James' Park in March, it was a really entertaining, attacking game of football and I do think this one can follow suit. The expected heat-wave about to hit Falmer this weekend is a concern when it comes to the attacking side of the game as energy is potentially sapped a little quicker than normal, but I do think the managers both approach their football with the same forward thinking ideas.

An early goal could spark the fixture and see at least three goals produced for the fourth time in five Premier League games between Brighton and Newcastle United.

Manchester City v Bournemouth Pick: For those that like to make predictions as to how the Premier League may shape up next May, most would likely have Manchester City inside the top two places and most would have placed Bournemouth inside the relegation zone.

Scott Parker's men will hope the 2-0 win over Aston Villa to open the season will have had some pundits revising those predictions, but this is a much tougher game than the first one. For starters it is being played away from home and the defending Champions looked every bit the title favourites in comfortably winning 0-2 at West Ham United last Sunday.

Erling Haaland is off the mark and Manchester City are a team that could make Bournemouth work very hard in extremely hot conditions expected on Saturday. Keeping the ball and forcing Bournemouth to chase will be the approach used by Manchester City, although an early goal will be the key to making things comfortable.

Otherwise you can imagine Scott Parker will ask his players to sit very deep and just look to close the door on the Manchester City attack. His Fulham team were beaten 2-0 here a couple of seasons ago, while Bournemouth have not rolled over on their last two visits to the Etihad Stadium, which may encourage the very defensive approach.

You cannot really blame Parker for that either, although I do think Bournemouth are short of numbers and could be exposed by a team with the quality of Manchester City. Last weekend they created plenty of chances against a deep-sitting West Ham United who have a higher quality of player compared with Bournemouth and I do think it will be very difficult to contain Manchester City following that victory.

This is a very wide handicap mark for Manchester City to cover- at their best they are more than capable of doing that, but it is also hard to ignore that only 15 of their last 38 home Premier League games have ended in wins by three or more goal margins. Last season they managed that in 9 of 19 home League games, although 4 of those wide victories came against the teams that finished in the bottom five places in the Premier League.

Manchester City scored 22 home goals in those games against the bottom five last season and they only conceded once. A narrow loss would likely be seen as a win for Bournemouth fans, but I think it will be very difficult for Scott Parker's players in the heat and eventually the pressure may tell for the home team.

Wolves v Fulham Pick: A disappointing result would have been an understatement as to how Wolves were feeling after the 2-1 loss at Leeds United, especially as they had led that game very early on. Some of the defending was not really good enough, while Wolves continue to lack the bite in the final third that is going to be crucial for their chances of avoiding the drop.

I have not really seen Wolves mentioned too many times as a potential relegation candidate, but you cannot ignore the miserable final three months of the 2021/22 season. Norwich City, Watford and Southampton were the only clubs with a worse record in that time and the lack of goals has to be a real worry for the Wolves fans.

Goncalo Guedes has been signed to help out and could make his debut, but Wolves will be hoping Raul Jimenez can return as soon as possible. The side created chances at Elland Road, which will be encouraging, and Wolves are going to feel they can do the same against a Fulham team who are likely going to bring in at least one new face in their defensive backline.

However, Marco Silva is also likely going to be encouraged by what he saw from his Fulham team in their 2-2 draw with Liverpool last Saturday. Seeing Aleksander Mitrovic score twice will be a huge boost after the Serbian international's previous struggles in the top flight compared with his prolific form in the Championship.

I expect there will be plenty more service coming Mitrovic's way and Wolves will have to defend better than they did last week. On the other hand, I do think Wolves will feel they can get on the front foot and cause plenty of problems of their own and the feeling is that this is the kind of fixture that Bruno Lage and his players would have targeted for the full three points.

That does mean dealing with the additional pressure, but Wolves have a strong recent record against Fulham and can edge to the three points in this one.

Brentford v Manchester United Pick: There have been plenty of promises made by the new Manchester United board, but the proof is in the pudding and the failures of this summer's transfer window have once again reminded the fans how far the club have fallen.

Once again there are calls for the owners to sell up and allow someone with the love for the club to turn things back around. Protests have been organised before the defeat against Brighton, but the defeat followed by links with some seriously sub-par players in the aftermath have only increased the irritation within the fanbase.

Nine of the eleven starters last Sunday were a part of the squad that saw Manchester United end the season in miserable form. 5 losses in their last 7 Premier League games is a major concern for Manchester United, but they have embarrassingly been beaten in 6 away Premier League games in a row.

Losing is one thing, but Manchester United have conceded goals for fun in those games. Last Sunday the defending did not offer any encouragement that the new manager and coaching team have been able to have an impact like they would have wanted and this is a very difficult test for Manchester United in what are expected to be very hot conditions.

Brentford will miss Christian Eriksen, who could line up against them on Saturday, but they showed they can build on last season in their 2-2 draw at Leicester City last Sunday. The Bees came from 2-0 down that day, while they have won 3 of their last 5 Premier League games here and will be confident they can hurt their more illustrious visitors.

Last season Thomas Frank felt his Brentford team 'destroyed' Manchester United in the game played in West London, but the visiting team showed the composure to secure the 1-3 win. Confidence looks to be shot at Manchester United right now and Brentford may feel they can take advantage of that, although I do think the away team will create chances too considering some of the defensive injuries in the Brentford squad.

Manchester United look plenty short for a team that has lost 6 away Premier League games in a row.

Instead it may be best to back at least three goals being shared out by the two teams on Saturday in the second live televised offering from the Premier League. Last season both League games between the teams ended with at least three goals shared out, while both Brentford and Manchester United were involved in high-scoring games on the opening weekend.

I cannot ignore the fact that Manchester United have scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games, but this feels like a game in which the attacking players can get on top. Brentford's style could lead to an open fixture with chances created at both ends and I do think we will see a relatively high-scoring game even in the heatwave that will be hitting London very hard on Saturday afternoon.

Nottingham Forest v West Ham United Pick: It would be a big mistake to judge a team on a single performance, but I have no doubt that Steve Cooper knows how much work it will take to keep Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. They have followed the Fulham route of two seasons ago by adding a lot of new faces to the dressing room, but that could mean it takes a bit of time for those players to buy into the culture and style that Cooper has put together.

Losing at Newcastle United will have stung, but the manner of the performance was most worrying for Nottingham Forest fans. They were well beaten on the day and the margin could have been much greater if Newcastle United had produced better finishing, but that fixture was played away from home.

The City Ground can be a tough venue for opponents to be able to express themselves and I do think the fans will be right behind their team in the hot weather expected on Sunday. Turning up the heat on The Hammers could see the visitors melt, and I do think Nottingham Forest's record here in the second half of the last season is encouraging.

Liverpool won here in the FA Cup last season, but Nottingham Forest had previously beaten both Arsenal and Leicester City and those results have to be respected.

The Tricky Trees are also facing a West Ham United team who had been well beaten on the opening weekend and one that has lost 6 of their last 8 away Premier League games. Most of those have been against top ten opponents though and I do think West Ham United's record against the bottom five away from home is more encouraging for David Moyes and his men as they look to get their Premier League campaign up and running.

West Ham United won't be the only team to be well beaten by Manchester City this season, but this is a squad with plenty of quality. The last two seasons have seen West Ham United improve under their current manager and I do think they have enough to secure a win here.

Playing at a newly promoted club in their home opener is always a big challenge to negotiate, and I do think West Ham United will have to weather some of the early storm. I cannot expect Nottingham Forest to be nearly as poor as they were last weekend, but this is a West Ham United team whose entire seven away League wins last season came against clubs that finished in the bottom half.

The Hammers drew 2 and lost at Brentford in the exceptions, but it shows that West Ham United are able to exert their quality at clubs they are expected to beat. This should be the mindset on Sunday in the first live game of the afternoon and I think West Ham United will edge to the three points.

Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: When these two teams met in January, the third straight win for Chelsea over Tottenham Hotspur in the space of eighteen days saw a frustrated Antonio Conte suggest there was a huge gap between the quality of the two squads.

The former Chelsea manager made it clear to his Tottenham Hotspur board that they needed better numbers and Antonio Conte cannot complain with how he has been backed. The winter deadline day signing of Dejan Kulusevski has been a huge boost for Tottenham Hotspur and more solid recruitment this summer means this is a team that is ready to compete on a much leveller playing field.

Chelsea have also spent plenty in the summer transfer window and yet more signings could be made before the close on September 1st.

Without a doubt there will be a real difference in the starting elevens compared with their last fixture in mid-January and I do think this is a big game for both Chelsea and Spurs. We should know a lot more about their capabilities for the next ten months at the end of this game, although Chelsea may be bolstering the squad further.

Both teams won on the opening weekend against opponents they would have expected to beat, but this is a much tougher test.

Those 4 wins for Chelsea last season will give them a mental edge and they have won 4 of their last 5 at Stamford Bridge against Tottenham Hotspur. However, I do think Tottenham Hotspur are much improved in the last eight months and Antonio Conte's men have earned a win at Manchester City and a draw at Liverpool since their last fixture at Stamford Bridge.

Antonio Conte's approach has seen Tottenham Hotspur get on the front foot and create chances and you cannot ignore the amount of goals they have scored against fellow 'Big Six' rivals since the close of the January transfer window. Tottenham Hotspur have scored nine goals in 4 games against those rivals since February and I do think they will pose problems for Chelsea in this one.

However, it cannot be ignored that Tottenham Hotspur have only kept a single clean sheet in those 4 games too and I do think Chelsea showed enough in the final third last weekend to be a threat in this one. The fans will expect better from the likes of Mason Mount after a quiet opening weekend performance, but this is a Chelsea team with plenty of talent in the forward positions and will be expecting to score at least once in this game.

I did consider backing Tottenham Hotspur with a start on the handicap, but their poor record here is a little concerning. I do think Antonio Conte has already had a massive impact on the players at the club and Spurs have been one of the better performing teams of the last five months of the previous campaign and so I expect them to challenge Chelsea much more than they did last season.

Both teams should be able to hit the back of the net, while the attacking approach of the two teams may lead to this fixture producing at least three goals, even in the expected very hot conditions in West London on Sunday afternoon.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: The last Premier League game of the weekend will be played on Monday night and the conditions are expected to be much more favourable compared with the Saturday and Sunday heatwave across much of England.

Thundery outbursts in Liverpool could mean a wet playing field, but there will be no excuses for Jurgen Klopp who complained that the surface at Craven Cottage was 'too dry' last week.

Perhaps it will be too wet this time, but Liverpool fans will know the team need to bounce back and end this one with the three points in the bag. It does feel two points were dropped in the 2-2 draw with Fulham, but the second half display was much stronger than the first and so Liverpool may feel they have some momentum to take into this opening League fixture at Anfield.

The opponent could be a good one for Liverpool who have won 10 Premier League games in a row against Crystal Palace, including the last 5 at home. Liverpool have managed to keep Crystal Palace at arm's length in those home wins having produced 4 clean sheets and they will feel they can largely do the same in this one.

The side are one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League and Liverpool will be disappointed with the way both goals were conceded last week. I do think they will be much better in this one, while Liverpool were the only Premier League team who conceded fewer than 10 goals at home through the entirety of last season.

There was enough to see from Crystal Palace in their 0-2 defeat to Arsenal to think they will pose a threat in this one. However, the finishing is going to have to be a lot more decisive if they are going to break down Liverpool and Crystal Palace did fail to score in 7 of their 19 away League games.

Crystal Palace failed to get on the scoreboard against 4 of the top six last season and I do think they will struggle to do so on Monday evening. I am not that concerned about how the season will go for Palace under Patrick Vieira and these are the games in which any points earned will be considered a bonus.

Ultimately I think Crystal Palace will be on the back foot more often than not in this fixture and Liverpool are likely to beat them with a clean sheet for the fourth season in a row at home.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arsenal & Over 1 Total Goal @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brighton-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Brentford-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

West Ham United @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Chelsea-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Liverpool Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August 2022: 2-6, - 8.88 Units (16 Units Staked, - 55.50% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 2

The first GameWeek of the official fantasy game is in the books and I think it was a pretty good weekend for most players.

With some of the big hitters coming through with good returns, the only people who may have suffered were those that decided to pick Harry Kane ahead of Erling Haaland.

Surprising results are par for the course early in the season so my decision to double up on the Liverpool defence turned out to be a bad one, although Luis Diaz failed to sparkle and so ultimately it was not one to regret.

This was my team after GameWeek 1 was concluded:

A return of 68 points was slightly above average, but I did feel it was a squad that wouldn't need too many changes in GW2 and ultimately that was the reason I had selected Haaland ahead of Kane.

I did leave some points on the bench with Robert Sanchez outscoring Danny Ward, while Andreas over either Liverpool defender would have also produced one extra point, but I am happy with the choices made.

Marcus Rashford missed a couple of big opportunities to put up some points as a player that was not selected by so many, while I am not surprised to see some jump off the Gabriel Jesus bandwagon after a relatively quiet GW1.

I am not planning any transfers in GW2 and have likely decided to go with Erling Haaland over Mohamed Salah as the Captain this week.

My goalkeeper will be switched around with Sanchez facing Newcastle United at home and Ward travelling to Arsenal, while I will likely have Andreas as first sub after a promising debut for Fulham against Liverpool.

Holding a transfer feels important with the likes of Leon Bailey, Marcus Rashford having something to prove, while injuries cannot be accounted for and having an extra transfer in GW3 means having a bit more data to look into.

Unlike last week, the majority of my players will be playing at home in GW2 so I am looking for the team to top the 68 points produced last week.

It will be a fuller post in GW3 with transfer decisions on the mind, but good luck to all in GW2.

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 1 Picks 2021 (August 13-15)

The last month has been something of a blur and I really can't believe that the new Premier League season is set to get underway this weekend.

It feels like it has come around very quickly following the Euro 2020 delayed Finals, but it is a time for excitement up and down the country. There is always a positive feeling on the eve of a new season, but it feels different this season as for many match-going fans it will be the chance to return to grounds for the first time in around seventeen months.

I will be at Old Trafford for the Saturday lunch time kick off and I do think Manchester United have all of the tools to have a very successful season. Making a strong start is so important to clubs at the top of the Premier League after the kind of standards that have been set in recent campaigns and so there can't be a feeling out process or any excuses for poor results.

You can read my thoughts on the opening weekend fixtures below before I get onto the Fantasy Football portion of the thread.

Brentford v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League returns on Friday night as Brentford become the 50th club to play at this level since the start of the 1992/93 season.

In recent years Brentford have proved to be one of the best run clubs in England with a business model that has forced outsiders to respect the methods being used. This is a data driven club, but it has proved to be very effective as Brentford have overcome losing some big name players and found the right replacements to keep the club developing in a positive manner.

It has also led to Brentford moving to a new home and the idea was that the Brentford Community Stadium would be ready for Premier League Football as soon as it opened. The Covid-19 pandemic has ensured that dream has come true, albeit in a round about way, and Brentford fans will be piling into the Stadium on Friday to produced an intense atmosphere from the start.

Home advantage was somewhat lost last season as clubs played in front of empty stands, but I do think the return of fans will be a big boost for teams up and down the country. Brentford played well at home last season anyway, but they did have too many draws for Thomas Franks' liking and having the fans pushing the players on should help.

Of course Brentford are playing at a higher level now and they were beaten here by Leicester City in the FA Cup. However, Brentford also reached the League Cup Quarter Final with wins over Southampton, West Brom (Penalties), Fulham and Newcastle United and that should let the players know they are capable of performing against Premier League clubs.

First up is an Arsenal team that will not have European Football on the calendar for the first time in 25 years and who look to have hit a low point in their recent history. They did end the Premier League season in good form which will be encouraging for Mikel Arteta, while Arsenal won 10 of their 19 away Premier League games last season.

Ben White is the only signing of note to this point, but Arsenal have some quality younger players that look to have taken a step forward in their development over the last twelve months. The Gunners still have the quality of Alexandre Lacazette, Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the final third too and they were a pretty stubborn team to break down in the Premier League last season before adding Ben White to the mix.

Arsenal were unbeaten away from home at the seven clubs that made up the bottom of the Premier League last season and they won 6 of those games. While I do think Brentford are capable of surviving at this level, Arsenal finished with a top four away defence according to the underlying stats last season and they are capable of opening up with an important win here.

This will be far from easy, especially when you consider how tough Brentford are at home, but the jump in level and the expected improvement of Arsenal gives them an edge here. The Gunners won 0-3 at newly promoted Fulham on the opening weekend of last season and, while the odds on quote is far from appealing, I do think they can open this Premier League campaign with a victory.

It won't be as comfortable as it was in a different part of West London last September, but Arsenal can do just enough to secure the points.

Manchester United v Leeds United Pick: When the fixtures were produced for the 2020/21 season, the one that a lot of Manchester United fans would have most been looking forward to was renewing the rivalry with Leeds United. There is no love lost between the Lancashire-Yorkshire rivals and a real sense of disappointment would have developed when seeing the large majority of the season played behind closed doors.

Things change on Saturday with a full Old Trafford ready to welcome Leeds United back into the big time and there is a real sense of belief that Manchester United are ready to compete for the Premier League title. Buying an experienced, quality defender like Raphael Varane and adding the talent of Jadon Sancho has only improved the starting eleven, although both players will likely begin their Manchester United careers on the bench.

Some doubt is raised by the return of key players from major international tournaments this summer and that does mean Manchester United may have to utilise the squad against one of the tougher teams to face in the Premier League. After finishing 9th in the Premier League table, Leeds United proved the Marcelo Bielsa style can be highly effective in the top flight and the strong end to the season curtailed any concerns about whether the squad could cope with the demands placed on them by the manager.

Leeds United won their last 4 Premier League games and they did win 10 of 19 away League games last season which is an impressive number for a newly promoted club. However, they were beaten in 6 of the 8 away games played at clubs that finished above them in the Premier League table and that includes the heavy defeat at Old Trafford last December.

Marcelo Bielsa showed he learned from some of the early experiences when his Leeds United team were perhaps far too open and they closed out the campaign with a single loss in 11 League games. That was the sole game in which Leeds United conceded more than one goal in that run and they held the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester City below two goals in that time too.

In that time Leeds United also played out a goalless draw with Manchester United and I do think the change in philosophy made Leeds United much tougher to deal with.

I expect they will take that into the opening weekend of the season after losing 4-3 at Anfield in their opening game of the 2020/21 Premier League campaign. The balance between attack and defence helped Leeds United finish up very strongly last time out, and that has to be a concern for Manchester United who will not be able to call on some key players to open this fixture.

An early goal could really spark this fixture, but I think it will be a tight, tough game for both Manchester United and Leeds United. The visitors were vastly more secure defensively in the second half of last season as they got to grips with the Premier League, while Manchester United were tough to break down at times too.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer knows the importance of a strong start and I think it will see him look to make life difficult for Leeds United who will be intense and full of energy. That means making sure Manchester United are not overly progressive and looking to take advantage of set pieces, a weakness for Leeds United defensively last season, and I think this might be a low-scoring fixture with neither looking to give too much away.

4 of the last 6 Leeds United Premier League fixtures against clubs that finished above them in the standings finished with fewer than three goals shared out and that may be the case at Old Trafford too.

Burnley v Brighton Pick: Both Burnley and Brighton have to be very happy with the fact they have kept hold of their managers through the summer and both Sean Dyche and Graham Potter are going to be massively important for their respective clubs over the course of the season.

It was so important for Burnley to keep hold of Sean Dyche who has shown he has all of the ability to extract everything out of this squad. He has largely kept Burnley clear of the relegation fight, but Dyche has not been as backed in the transfer market as he would have hoped since the takeover of the club was confirmed.

The January window may have come too soon, but only Nathan Collins has arrived so far in the summer and Burnley are a couple of serious injuries away from struggling. At least they are going into the season with the key players available and with Chris Wood back from the Olympic Games after representing New Zealand.

A strong start will be important for Burnley who ended last season in miserable form. They suffered some heavy defeats at home and the form at Turf Moor will have to be improved significantly if Burnley are going to avoid the drop, but having the fans returning will be a boost.

Brighton are a tough opening fixture for Burnley and one that may give the fans some concern as to the direction the season could be heading. Last season Brighton only finished 2 points above Burnley, but this is a progressive team who would likely be much higher up the League standings if they can find someone to put a clinical touch to all of the build up play.

It may be possible for Brighton to find the improvement in the final third within the squad, but I do think they need to buy a striker who can push Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck. The latter is too injury prone and will miss out this week and this has proved to be a difficult ground for Brighton to secure the full points.

They certainly look plenty short in the market as one of the 'trendy' picks to finish much higher up the League standings this time around. You can't argue with the quality of chances Brighton can create, but over the second half of the season they did have some difficulties being as effective going forward away from home as they were at The Amex Stadium.

Burnley will have their tried and tested backline together for the opening fixture and I think they can do enough to earn a positive result. It should be another tight fixture with 6 of the last 8 between these clubs ending with fewer than three goals shared out, but Burnley may have enough to at least earn a point in this one.

Brighton should be stronger overall this season, but they had a poor end to the last campaign on their travels and that may show up here.

Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: Two years ago Liverpool won the Champions League and followed up by winning the Premier League the following season and it is a path that Chelsea fans believe their team can tread under Thomas Tuchel. The Champions League success in Porto in May was a surprise, but it underlined the kind of improvement Chelsea made when their new manager took over from Frank Lampard and extracted a lot more from a squad that had been struggling.

Romelu Lukaku looks to be added to the mix and that only strengthens Chelsea further, but Thomas Tuchel will be looking for his team to make a strong start to the season. The fixture list has been far from kind to Chelsea who will face Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City in their first six Premier League fixtures and it does mean they can ill afford an opening weekend disappointment.

It is far from ideal that Chelsea had to play in the European Super Cup on Wednesday and even picking up a trophy would not have made up for the fact they needed Extra Time and Penalties. That comes after many of their top players would have been late returning to the club after playing in the major international tournaments this summer and that does leave Chelsea potentially vulnerable.

However, they do benefit from facing a Crystal Palace team that will be learning new methods under the guidance of Patrick Vieira who has taken over from Roy Hodgson. It was something of a left field appointment and the last time Crystal Palace tried that they lost their first 4 Premier League games under Frank de Boer without scoring a goal.

Patrick Vieira has experienced the Premier League as a player and he had links with Manchester City which should have kept him up to date with the League. He is going to be changing the philosophy of the Crystal Palace squad that has been accustomed to being set up to be hard to beat, but there has been some upheaval with plenty of experience leaving the club this summer.

The former Arsenal Captain has had a mixed time as manager of New York City and Nice and I do think Crystal Palace will need time under Vieira's guidance. The learning curve means they are vulnerable to a Chelsea team that scored four goals in both Premier League wins over Crystal Palace last season and who have beaten this London rival 4 times in succession at Stamford Bridge.

A huge effort on Wednesday might mean Chelsea have to rotate their squad, but they have the quality at both ends of the field to break down this Crystal Palace team. With big away games at Arsenal and Liverpool to come before the first international break, Thomas Tuchel should motivate a big performance from his team to get this Premier League campaign off to a winning start and I think Chelsea will take advantage of some of the uncertainty that will surely be in the visitor's camp.

Chelsea should be strong enough to win by a couple of goals on the day and I think they will cover the Asian Handicap as they get their title challenge going.

Everton v Southampton Pick: There are more questions than answers about the state of Everton and Southampton ahead of the opening fixture in the 2021/22 season.

Rafa Benitez has come in as manager of Everton, but his arrival has been anything but universally approved by the fans and that puts the Spaniard on the back foot from the off. Not many have forgiven Benitez for calling Everton a 'small club' when managing across Stanley Park at Liverpool and that means a slow start is not really going to be tolerated by the returning fans.

He does benefit from a good looking fixture list through the first two months, but Rafa Benitez could be without some big name players on Saturday and that is far from ideal. Richarlison is a doubt having only just returned from international duty, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Moise Kean are both doubts and you do wonder if they can take advantage of the poor form Southampton were displaying in the second half of the last campaign.

Ralph Hasenhuttl will be given time by the Southampton board, but he is another manager that needs a positive start to the campaign. Losing Danny Ings to Aston Villa is a massive blow and Southampton conceded goals for fun away from St Mary's last season which saw them drop alarmingly towards the bottom three.

The squad looks much weaker than last season with Ryan Bertrand another who has moved on, but Southampton did make a positive start to the last campaign and they could take advantage if there are some nerves in the home camp. Southampton have only lost 2 of their last 5 visits to this ground and the long injury list to end last season contributed to their overall poor form.

James Ward-Prowse looks to be absent and that is a miss for The Saints, but the back four should be more settled and Everton's forwards look like they will either be short of training time or perhaps a little fatigued having played at the Olympic Games in Tokyo.

It could mean a lack of goals in the home team and you do wonder how the atmosphere will turn if Southampton can get their noses in front. They can certainly do that despite the horrific away form to end last season and I think Everton look like one of the more vulnerable home favourites on the opening weekend of the season.

Leicester City v Wolves Pick: The opening of a new season will always bring new hope and optimism in any fan base, but it feels like things are a little more uncertain for those who support Wolves. After a successful era under Nuno Espirito Santo, Wolves decided the time was right to move on and change direction after finishing 13th last time out.

Much is going to depend on how quickly Bruno Lage finds his feet as the new manager of the club.

The fans are not entirely sure what they can expect after Lage's previous job with Benfica saw him win the Portuguese title, but then also oversee some of the poorest runs of results that the former European Champions have experienced for over a generation. He has some previous experience of English Football and Bruno Lage has promised to bring more attacking football to Molineux, but finding the right blend and balance will be a challenge.

Wolves have some quality players, but they are dealing with a long injury list as they get set to visit Leicester City.

The Foxes impressed in their 1-0 win over Manchester City in the Community Shield last week and they started the Premier League very strongly last season. That is encouraging as Leicester City were trying to bounce back from a disappointing final day defeat to Manchester United at the end of the 2019/20 season which cost them Champions League Football and now Leicester City have to try and do the same following the final day defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in May which left them in 5th place.

Brendan Rodgers knows his team have to improve at home, but they were not helped down the stretch with injury costing them key players. Harvey Barnes and James Maddison both missed out on England duty over the summer because of those injuries, but that may be to Leicester City's benefit and they can get their season off to a strong start.

Leicester City did score at least twice in their last 4 Premier League games at the King Power Stadium and they created some good chances in their win over Manchester City last week. A more positive Wolves team may also be a little more vulnerable than they usually are and I think Leicester City can take advantage on the opening weekend.

Games between these clubs have been tight over the last two seasons, but the last two have not lacked for chances. Leicester City have won 3 of their last 4 at home against Wolves and I think they are good enough to score at least two goals here which should be enough for an opening three points in the 2021/22 campaign.

Watford v Aston Villa Pick: Losing 'one of their own' has felt inevitable for Aston Villa fans for some time, but Jack Grealish's decision to leave for Manchester City has helped the club bring in some real quality as they look to improve on their 11th place finish in the Premier League last season.

Dean Smith will be without John Terry this season, but the manager has to be given a huge amount of credit for the improvement Aston Villa have made under his watch. Last season was their highest League finish in a decade and Aston Villa have bolstered the squad by bringing in quality like Emiliano Buendia, Leon Bailey and Danny Ings.

Between the three of those players, Aston Villa are confident they can make up for the absence of Grealish. It will be a test for the club considering how much weaker they looked in matches where Jack Grealish was absent last season, but Aston Villa will head into the opening weekend as the favourite when taking on a newly promoted club.

Watford are back in the Premier League after spending a season in the Championship, but Xisco Munoz will be under pressure from the off considering how often this club will change managers. The Pozzo family have been successful in making the decision to replace managers in their time running Watford, but two seasons ago four names were not able to keep the team in the Premier League.

The squad has plenty of experience at this level, but Watford will be quite happy to finish 17th in the Premier League table and just consolidate their place back in the top flight. They did win 19 of 23 home League games in the Championship and the form at Vicarage Road is going to be vital for Watford if they are going to avoid another relegation.

Their underlying stats at home were pretty decent last season, but much was based on being difficult to break down. Against the added quality of Premier League opponents it will be difficult, and Watford need to win more than the 6 home wins managed in the Premier League two seasons ago if they are going to avoid finishing in the bottom three of the Division.

Having the home fans back should only aid Watford and they are facing an opponent who struggled to break down those teams they were likely to be considered favourites to beat. Since the turn of the calendar year, Aston Villa failed to beat the likes of Newcastle United, Brighton and West Brom, while losing to Sheffield United, Burnley and Crystal Palace.

Dean Smith will want his team to show more creativity against those teams willing to defend deep against his team, but Aston Villa could be missing Emiliano Buendia, Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey on the opening weekend. They will still be dangerous with Danny Ings leading the line, but Watford look like an underdog that could ride the momentum of their end to last season to earn a positive result to open this one.

Watford have a decent record at home against Aston Villa in recent seasons and they may just have enough to avoid defeat if their visitors are not able to call upon their most creative and attacking players this weekend.

Aston Villa had one of the weaker away defences in the League in terms of chances being allowed during this calendar year and Watford could earn an 'upset' here with the fans finally back to support them.

Norwich City v Liverpool Pick: An immediate return to the Premier League saw Daniel Farke fulfil his requirements as manager of Norwich City last season, but it will be his experiences of two seasons ago that will determine how well The Canaries deal with the top flight this time around.

Two years ago Norwich City finished bottom of the pile and earned just 21 points while they seemingly accepted their fate far earlier than they should have. The squad is arguably not as good as it was in the 2019/20 season, but they are more experienced and the manager is being asked to consolidate Norwich City's place in the top flight while still dealing with the financial purse strings remaining in the same place as they were.

Home form was disappointing a couple of seasons ago and Norwich City have been given a very tough start to the 2021/22 season as they look to build some momentum following another Championship winning campaign. Injuries and Covid-19 issues could see Daniel Farke's men going into the opening weekend short of numbers, but they can't expect much sympathy from Liverpool.

Last season it was a pile up of defensive injuries that saw Liverpool finish 17 points behind Champions Manchester City as their defence of the Premier League title went off the rails at the turn of the calendar year. At one point it looked like Liverpool may not even finish in the top four, but the likes of Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez are back and that should give Liverpool a solid base on which to get much closer to the top of the Division.

Andrew Robertson will miss the first couple of games, but having the key centre halves back in action should enable Liverpool to play with a much stronger attacking style. There were some concerns that their front three have lost a little of their edge, but Diogo Jota should offer another spark and Liverpool can extend what is a very strong record at Carrow Road.

They have won their last 7 visits to this ground including a 0-1 win two seasons ago, and Liverpool have won 6 of their last 7 away Premier League games. Norwich City should be given a huge boost by the returning crowds, but there is a considerable gap for them to bridge to what is expected to be a title challenger in the Premier League.

Norwich City did not give any team an easy ride at home in their last Premier League campaign and did beat Manchester City here. Narrow losses to Chelsea and Liverpool and a draw with Tottenham Hotspur shows what Norwich City may be capable of in front of their own fans, but they could be short of numbers in this opening fixture and I think Liverpool will take advantage by securing a wide win on the day.

Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: The first live Sunday Premier League fixture of the 2021/22 season will be played out in front of a full St James' Park and I am not sure that privately Steve Bruce is perhaps feeling a little anxious about the occasion.

There is no doubt that Bruce and Mike Ashley are considered the enemies by the Newcastle United fans and it feels a protest or a surge of momentum against the club is never far away from the stands. Even a 12th place finish in the Premier League last season is unlikely to have appeased the fans who feel Newcastle United are stuck in purgatory under Mike Ashley's stewardship, while players have seemingly revolted against Steve Bruce pretty recently.

Despite that, Newcastle United did end the last season in solid form with 5 wins from their last 8 games which pushed them up the standings. A fast start may give Bruce the breathing room he desires, but a lack of transfer activity looks to have left Newcastle United short of quality behind the first eleven.

Keeping Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson fit and firing will be key for Newcastle United who won just 6 games at St James' Park last season.

Avoiding long-term injuries has to be the same ambition for West Ham United after David Moyes led them to their highest League finish since 1998/99. The 6th place means Europa League Football will be played at the London Stadium this season, but West Ham United have not really given Moyes the depth to the squad he would have wanted and they are still hugely reliant on Michail Antonio with little behind him.

Transfer business is likely to go down to the wire for West Ham United, but they will at least open the season with the vast majority of their key players ready to go. Jesse Lingard has returned to Manchester United, but West Ham United have some decent attacking options and they will certainly feel they can test this Newcastle United defence.

You can get at West Ham United defensively too though and I think that will be encouraging to Newcastle United who beat The Hammers 3-2 here in April. That meant completing the League double over West Ham United and was the latest in what has become a high-scoring fixture.

7 of the last 9 between these clubs have finished with three or more goals shared out. That includes each of the last 5 between the clubs at St James' Park and this feels like an attacking game with both teams looking stronger in the final third than they do in their own defensive third.

Most are expecting West Ham United to finish much lower than their 6th place last season with the current squad they have, but in August they should be able to concentrate on their Premier League form. Playing the Europa League Group games will add to the stresses for the players, but for now they are only playing one fixture per week and I think West Ham United have a fixture list they will feel they can negotiate effectively.

Winning here won't be easy though and the feeling is that both teams will find a way to hit the net in the latest high-scoring game played between Newcastle United and West Ham United at St James' Park.

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: The opening fixture of a new season is always an exciting time for fans, but even more so this season after seventeen months where they have largely been absent due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

It should be no different for Tottenham Hotspur fans who have not really enjoyed their new Stadium as they would have wanted, but this is a fixture that is being overshadowed by the Harry Kane story. The England international and Spurs legend has asked to leave the club believing he would be allowed to do so this summer, but Daniel Levy has dug in and Kane is clearly unhappy.

To add to the drama, Harry Kane's desire is to join Champions Manchester City who happen to be the opponent for Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday.

A new manager makes things a little more blurry for Tottenham Hotspur fans, but Nuno Espirito Santo is well accustomed to managing in the Premier League and has made it clear that Harry Kane will be available for selection. Some transfer business has given the manager a few more options, but Tottenham Hotspur look like a team in transition and it has to be a concern that Leicester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester United were all able to win here last season.

One team that couldn't were Manchester City who have lost all 3 visits to this new Stadium and who could perhaps be vulnerable in the first month of the season. Pep Guardiola has admitted that the summer international tournaments have had an impact on his preparation and he will also be without Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden.

Those two are hugely influential, while Manchester City had an inconsistent start to the last campaign. They did win 1-3 at a Wolves team managed by Nuno Espirito Santo on the opening weekend of last season, but both De Bruyne and Foden were on the scoresheet that day and Tottenham Hotspur may have the familiarity with one another to make life difficult for the Champions.

In the main it feels like it will be a difficult transitional season for Tottenham Hotspur, but having the fans back and facing Manchester City at this stage may give them nothing to lose. Most will expect Spurs to roll over and lose, but I think they have enjoyed facing Manchester City here and the visitors are without some key names for this trip to North East London.

Some of the other top teams in the Premier League won here last season, but Nuno Espirito Santo has regularly made his Wolves team stubborn against the elite in his time in the Black Country. He will likely set Tottenham Hotspur up to be dangerous on the counter attack and the home underdog could be backed with the start which can only return a loser if Spurs are beaten convincingly.

Manchester City might be considered good enough to do that in a month or two, but right now they could be a little short of fitness to earn anything easily. It may lead to a surprising opening result that will give the other title challengers something to motivate them further than the additions made at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford already.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester United-Leeds United Under 2.5 Goals

Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Southampton + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Leicester City & Over 1.5 Total Goals

Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals

Tottenham Hotspur + 1 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 1 2021/22

The return of the Premier League means the return of the Fantasy Premier League game which is becoming more and more popular in each passing season.

At this stage I think it can be difficult to really create a squad that you are going to be happy with throughout the season but you have to learn from previous experiences.

For example, I am not keen on bringing in too many new signings who may be eased into the starting line ups, while I am not going to invest big money on players that are massive rotation risks. After the international summer of football, the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea are going to have some big names returning from short holidays and that should see the squads utilised in the first month of the season.

Neither team has the most appealing of opening fixtures either, but they are two of the leading contenders to win the title and so at some point you will want to bring in players from those teams. It might be a situation where you can wait for things to settle a little bit before you do, while risky to go without from either of those squads.

Liverpool and Manchester United look to be offering the best premium options ahead of Week 1, while the likes of Aston Villa, Leeds United and West Ham United have mid-priced options that could spark.

Of the newly promoted teams you do have to like how Brentford approach things, while both Norwich City and Watford are experienced in the Premier League and should have learnt from their 2019/20 seasons.

Norwich City have an awful set of fixtures to open the season, but Brentford could be a decent team to get behind with the likes of Ivan Toney priced very competitively.

Getting behind someone with the potential to streak like Toney early in the season could see a massive price rise as we saw for players early last season and that can be very important for those looking to finish very high up the standings.

Home form should also be stronger this time around compared with the Covid hit 2020/21 season that was played behind closed doors. It will be interesting to see how some teams that impressed last season cope with what has been a demanding fan base (West Ham United come to mind), while others should be much stronger (Liverpool are unlikely to lose 6 in a row at Anfield with their fans backing them as they did without them last season).

Over the last couple of seasons I have made a poor start to the Fantasy game and I am looking for much better this time around. Taking fewer 'punts' has to be the plan, although I am likely going to be working on my team right up until the deadline on Friday evening.

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (August 13th)

This is going to be a busy week at the Cincinnati Masters with the tournament getting straight into the meat of the event on Tuesday.

We have a number of Second Round matches already scheduled to be played alongside the remainder of the First Round and the weather looks pretty good for the rest of the week to ensure the tournament stays on the right path. It is a big chance for some to lay down a marker for the US Open and on Tuesday we have Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Serena Williams all set to play on the main show court in Cincinnati.


Monday saw just one pick made and Guido Pella managed to overcome Casper Ruud although he did have some fortune on his side in what was a very close match.

We also saw the return of Andy Murray to the Singles court and I always had faith that the Australian Open's 'goodbye' message was going to be premature. You could see from Murray's face that day that he was far from convinced he had played his last match and eight months later he is back on the courts as a Singles player.

No one will be that surprised that Murray was beaten as it is going to take some time to get back to full match fitness no matter how many Doubles matches he gets under his belt. The former World Number 1 is considering taking a Wild Card into an event in Winston Salem next week and he has already added a couple of events on the Asian swing to his schedule after the US Open is completed.

However it feels like the US Open is going to come too soon for Murray who is not ready to play best of five set matches, but there are plenty of positive noises coming from the Brit. He has mentioned being close to full strength in the next three months which means Murray could be ready to make a big impact at the Australian Open, although we have seen a number of players struggle when trying to make their way back onto the Tour considering it becomes a case of 'luck of the draw' in the early tournaments in which they return.


A good start to the week with the Pella pick is positive news, but Tuesday looks to be a busier day with the number of matches scheduled. There look to be a few more options for sure and I you can read my selections below.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Juan Ignacio Londero: I know I have made a point of not wishing to back Roger Federer when it comes to the large handicap marks when playing a best of three set match. A declining return of serve means it is becoming more and more difficult to expect the Swiss superstar to break multiple times that it takes to cover these sorts of numbers, but I do think he is someone I can look to in the Second Round in Cincinnati.

This has long been one of the favourite tournaments Federer plays and he has won seven titles here while reaching the Final twelve months ago before falling short to Novak Djokovic. In his last three appearances in Cincinnati Roger Federer has reached the Final every time and it was only the defeat to Djokovic last year that prevented him from securing the title in each of those runs.

All that means is that it would be a huge upset for Federer to lose this match, but I do think the prolonged break since reaching the Wimbledon Final will have done him some good. There is no doubt that Federer has to be seen as one of the favourites to win the US Open that begins later this month and his serve continues to be a deadly weapon on the hard courts having won 74% of points played behind that shot on this surface. Unsurprisingly he is very difficult to break.

A question remains about his capability to break serve with only 23% of return games played on the hard courts resulting in a break for Federer over a twelve month period. Those numbers don't even markedly improve when Federer faces players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings, but I do think he should have a considerable edge over Juan Ignacio Londero who doesn't have a deep hard court pedigree.

2019 has been a stunning year for Londero who is up at a career high Number 55 in the World Rankings, but the foundation for that improvement has been laid in the performances on the clay courts. The Argentinian played his first hard court match of the year in Los Cabos a couple of weeks ago and Londero didn't play one match on the surface in 2018 and I include the Challenger and Qualifying events in that too.

His numbers have been decent from the very small sample we can see and Londero did earn a good looking win over Matteo Berrettini in the First Round. However this is a big step up against a confident hard court player and I do think the Londero serve will be put under pressure by the scoreboard pressure Roger Federer should be able to build up with his own serve throughout this match.

Juan Ignacio Londero has only played two top 10 Ranked opponents in his career and both on his favoured clay courts. He managed to hold onto just 50% of his service games played against Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev and he struggled to make an impact on the return of serve.

While I expect the faster surface to aid Londero, I do think Federer will be able to get his teeth into the return games and much will depend on how efficient he is at the big moments. At odds against I will back Federer to find the breaks of serve he needs and to cover this mark.


Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 games v Joao Sousa: From the moment Fabio Fognini ended his match with Rafael Nadal at the Canadian Masters last week it was clear that his participation in Cincinnati would be doubtful to say the least. He was entered into the draw for the final Masters event before the US Open, but the Italian unsurprisingly withdrew and that has given Joao Sousa a lifeline as he enters the main draw as a Lucky Loser.

Joao Sousa was beaten in the Qualifiers by Yoshihito Nishioka, but the latter has already won his First Round match here which shows he is in decent form. It was also the first hard court action for Sousa of the summer in the Qualifying tournament here and the move from the European clay courts onto the US hard courts can be difficult with the speed and conditions much different to face.

2019 has been a tough year on the hard courts for Sousa who has regularly had a miserable time on the US hard court swing following Wimbledon. He did reach the Fourth Round of the US Open in 2018, but Sousa has had a limited impact on the two Masters events played in August and he has struggled with his return of serve on the surface all year.

The Portuguese Number 1 has broken in just 14% of return games on the hard courts in 2019 and it is only the improvement in his hold numbers that have helped Sousa produce a 6-7 record. He may need to have a big serving day to keep Denis Shapovalov under pressure, although the Canadian is still capable of playing his best tennis on this surface.

Overall it has been a difficult year for the youngster as Shapovalov has slipped back down to Number 34 in the World Rankings. The serve continues to be a big weapon for Shapovalov with 85% of his service games played on the hard courts resulting in a hold, but he has made minimal improvement on the return and that is going to be a key to whether he can push back up the World Rankings.

In saying that, Shapovalov is breaking in 20% of return games which is a significantly better number than Sousa. Denis Shapovalov has also had a couple of very solid runs on the hard courts in Rotterdam and Miami in 2019 and I do think he can earn a measure of revenge for a three set defeat to Sousa back in early January in Auckland.

Conditions on the North American hard courts should be much more to Shapovalov's liking compared with those in Australia and New Zealand and I do think he can edge out Joao Sousa here. The latter can be a dangerous opponent when at his best, but he is only 4-6 in Cincinnati in the past before this tournament and I think Shapovalov can be backed to win and cover.


Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Maria Sakkari: A lingering forearm issue is preventing Petra Kvitova from playing as much tennis as she would have liked over the last three months. It was an injury that forced her out of the French Open and also meant she missed the majority of the grass court season before reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon.

Since then Kvitova has forced to take another withdrawal in Toronto last week, but the Czech left-hander has arrived in Cincinnati and has been on the site for a few days. Being given a bye through to the Second Round means Kvitova has had plenty of days to test the forearm to see how she feels and it does look like she will be ready to go.

She showed at Wimbledon that she can get right to things even off a relatively long lay off and Kvitova has been very strong on the hard courts throughout 2019. If she was fully healthy Kvitova would be one of the strong favourites at the US Open coming up, but the forearm problems do present one or two doubts both for her backers and for Petra Kvitova herself.

Over the last twelve months Kvitova has continued to build her platform for success on the hard courts behind a strong serve. Her return numbers have been relatively consistent with 43% of points won against the opponent's serve both in the longer twelve month look and in just the 2019 matches played.

Petra Kvitova will need to serve well against the still very average Maria Sakkari who continues to produce results that exceed her numbers. The Greek player is improved on the clay courts, but her hard court numbers remain average.

At her best Maria Sakkari can be capable of taking it to the very best players on the Tour with an aggressive game backed up by good movement. However Sakkari had a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 and she is just 9-9 on the surface in 2019 having comfortably beaten Camila Giorgi in the First Round.

Over the last twelve months Sakkari has continued to produce a decent serve and has won 44% of points on the return of serve on this surface. Those numbers take a sharp dip when considering how Sakkari has done against top 20 Ranked opponents in the same time period and I do think Petra Kvitova holds the mental edge having beaten the Greek player for the loss of five games in Miami earlier this year.

As long as Petra Kvitova is feeling reasonably comfortable taking to the court, I will back her to beat Maria Sakkari and cover this number.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 1-0, + 1.82 Units (2 Units Staked, + 91% Yield)