The opening three days of the 2026 Wimbledon tournament were difficult for the Picks, but the Day 4 selections provided something of a bounce back, although with plenty of work still to do.
Two Rounds have been completed and the test for the players is going to increase significantly over the coming days as the heat begins to pick up in London and that means those who have been involved in tough opening matches could be lacking some energy.
Focus is going to be key as the tournament concludes the first week of the tournament over the next two days- Middle Sunday is no longer a tradition here so the Fourth Round will begin on that day rather than the Manic Monday that used to be arguably the best day in the sport.
Most of the top names have managed to work their way through the opening couple of matches, but the level of competition will ramp up from the Third Round.
There are some good matches scheduled on Friday when the Third Round begins, but we are now down to using four courts as the number of Singles matches are reduced across both Men's and Women's tournaments.
Hopefully that also means the momentum from Day 4 can kick the Tennis Picks forward on Day 5 when it all goes again.
Joao Fonseca - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullon: The first big breakthrough at Grand Slam level was made at the last Major when Joao Fonseca reached the French Open Quarter Final and he is one win away from reaching the second week at Wimbledon for the first time. The teenager has a big reputation, but it should be remembered he is relatively inexperienced, despite being high enough in the World Rankings to earn a Seed, and Joao Fonseca is continuing to learn a little more with each tournament played.
He does not have an extensive resume on the grass courts, but Joao Fonseca has made casual work of the first two opponents in the draw and has yet to drop a set. The wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Jesper de Jong both deserve respect for the manner in which they were put together, while Joao Fonseca has already matched the run to the Third Round here that was achieved last year.
Taking advantage of the draw was key for Joao Fonseca was beaten in the Third Round by a Qualifier Ranked outside of the top 100, but one who had been much higher in the Rankings previously before injuries saw Nicolas Jarry drop down.
A similar challenge has cropped up for Joao Fonseca in 2026 as he takes on a Qualifier in Roman Safiullon who is the World Number 132, but who had been inside the top 40 in January 2024.
Five sets had been needed for Roman Safiullon to come through the Third Qualifying Round and he has needed four hours in each of the opening two wins in the main draw, which have both ended in final set tie-breakers. One of those was an upset over Andrey Rublev, but it should be noted the amount of work that Roman Safiullon has had to put into the tournament already and you do have to wonder if he will have the energy required to see off a talent like Fonseca.
Roman Safiullon has always served pretty well on the grass, but the return game has held him back and that is going to be an issue in a match like this one.
The heat is picking up in London, which brings another challenge for the lower Ranked player to face having invested so much to reach the Third Round of this Grand Slam.
Joao Fonseca should have plenty of respect for the upset that Roman Safiullon has already had in the draw to knock out one Seed, but the former should be much fitter when this Third Round match gets underway and that should see the teenager find a way to get through without the need for Roman Safiullon to be involved in another final set decider.
Hubert Hurkacz-Tommy Paul over 40.5 games: Barring a change in mind regarding his retirement, the answer to who beat Roger Federer in his final Grand Slam match will be Hubert Hurkacz, who upset the dominant Wimbledon Champion in a match right here in SW19 in 2021.
Hubert Hurkacz reached the Semi Final that year where he was beaten by Matteo Berrettini, but he was surprisingly beaten early in 2022 and 2024 and the best run the Pole has had at Wimbledon since 2021 is a single appearance in the Fourth Round. For a player with the serve that he possesses, Hubert Hurkacz will feel he should have had more success at Wimbledon and he remains dangerous.
Injuries have meant Hubert Hurkacz entered the main draw as the World Number 96 and so the two wins on the board feel important to just reverse a trend that saw him slipping out of the top 100. That would have meant having to go through Qualifiers for the biggest events on the Tour and it may have been a challenge for a 29 year old to want to dig in and go again.
Hubert Hurkacz has beaten both Casper Ruud and Sebastian Ofner without dropping a set, but he will be the first to admit that this Third Round match represents a significant step up in class.
In warm up events, Hubert Hurkacz was beaten in the First Round in Hertogenbosch and Second Round in Halle and now has to take on the Queen's Club Runner Up in Tommy Paul.
The American comes into the Wimbledon tournament as the Number 21 Seed, but Tommy Paul has not really ripped things up in SW19 as you may have thought. He does have one Quarter Final under his belt, but Paul won Queen's Club last year and was beaten in the Second Round at Wimbledon a couple of weeks later and so there will be a feeling that he has not achieved as much as he perhaps should have in this Grand Slam.
Tommy Paul is another player who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and he is a win or two away from cracking back into the top 20 of the World Rankings and having a real lift ahead of the US Open, which begins in late August. Much like Hubert Hurkacz, the Tommy Paul numbers show a player who has long been comfortable on the grass courts and so this has the makings of a competitive match.
Whoever serves closest to their best will win and conditions in London should see both rolling through those service games against largely limited returners.
Out of the two, the clear edge is with Tommy Paul as far as the returning goes, but Hubert Hurkacz will feel he can get into tie-breakers and then it just takes one or two good returns to win a set.
In the previous matches on the Tour against one another, Tommy Paul has shown that superior returning to hold a 3-1 advantage, although the two hard court matches have been split (the other two have been on clay). They are meeting for the first time on the grass, but the feeling is that Tommy Paul is playing at a higher level and should eventually come through.
However, Hubert Hurkacz can use the hotter conditions to make sure he is serving with effectiveness to at least win a set and there is every chance the players can combine for enough service games to eventually surpass this total line set.
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Playing back to back five setters with the last of those carrying into another day is far from ideal for 36 year old Jan-Lennard Struff and he is going to have to find some serious energy ahead of this Third Round match. The only positive is that he will not have been taxed in many long rallies in a Second Round match that featured well over 80 Aces between himself and Brandon Nakashima, but that does mean having to battle through some tough moments that can both tax a player mentally and physically.
Jan-Lennard Struff will use all of his experience to try and prepare for this Third Round match as well as he can, while he is well aware of the qualities of Daniil Medvedev, which should mean plenty of clarity as to what he must do to make this competitive.
Serving well is the absolute key and it has been the Struff serve that has helped him move through the opening two Rounds in the main draw. It is a weapon that can make things that much easier for the German, but Jan-Lennard Struff has twice tried to take down Daniil Medvedev at Wimbledon before and lost in very similar fashions both times.
In 2021, Jan-Lennard Struff had beaten Daniil Medvedev on the grass courts of Halle, but lost in the First Round at Wimbledon to the same opponent after being outplayed in the first two sets, rallied to win the third set 6-4 and then losing in a fourth set tie-breaker.
That players met at Wimbledon again in 2024, but this time in the Third Round, and Daniil Medvedev outplayed Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening two sets, dropped the third 6-4, and then came through in a fourth set tie-breaker.
Daniil Medvedev recorded two wins over Jan-Lennard Struff on the hard courts in 2025 and in the career meetings, it has been the former who has tended to get a much better read on the return of serve and that has ultimately led to a lot more wins than defeats.
In this tournament, Daniil Medvedev has played one sloppy set, but largely been in control of both matches and he is quietly going about his business. A couple of decent, if unspectacular, runs in warm up events will have just reminded Daniil Medvedev of his ability to compete on the grass courts and he should have much more energy for much longer compared with the World Number 74.
Serving well will just keep the pressure on Jan-Lennard Struff and Daniil Medvedev may do enough to cover this handicap mark as he would have done with the scoreline produced in the two wins over this opponent at this Grand Slam event. It may take a bit of time to really take control if Jan-Lennard Struff is able to come out with some energy, but Daniil Medvedev looks to be playing at a level that can continue his dominance of this opponent.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: Winning the Boys Title at Wimbledon does not always mean that those names will go onto the senior Tour and have the same success at this Grand Slam in the Men's event.
For every Pat Cash, Stefan Edberg and Roger Federer, there are a host of names who have won the Boys Title without having a big impact at the main Wimbledon tournament.
Two of those former Boys Champions are facing one another in the Third Round in 2026 and it is a big match for both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Marton Fucsovics- between these players, there has only been one previous appearance in the second week at Wimbledon and that was in 2021 when Marton Fucsovics went on to reach the Quarter Final.
The record here will disappointment both players, but it does feel like Fucsovics has missed his opportunities to better that Quarter Final run, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina arrived at Wimbledon as a grass court title winner in Mallorca. It is a reminder of his ability on the surface and the Spaniard has made easy work of the first two matches as he has pushed through without dropping a set.
Marton Fucsovics had little success in warm up tournaments for Wimbledon, but he has benefited form injury issues for his previous two opponents to reach the Third Round again. His First Round match only made it through four games of the second set, while Learner Tien was having a host of issues in the Second Round as he fell in four sets and that does mean there is a bit more uncertainty surrounding the current level being produced by Marton Fucsovics.
He is going to need to find another level to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who will feel that the Marton Fucsovics serve is vulnerable having allowed 18 Break Point chances in the win over Learner Tien. A healthier Tien might have won that match and Davidovich Fokina is unlikely to let Marton Fucsovics off the hook in this Third Round match.
Pressure can do a funny thing to players and there is pressure on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who has only reached the Quarter Final at Grand Slam level once before and who has not made the second week in 17 of the last 19 Majors he has competed in. The World Number 23 will expect to win this match and so will have to deal with the emotions around it, but Davidovich Fokina can do what is required to eventually pull through and cover this potentially awkward looking line on the way into the Fourth Round.
MY PICKS: Joao Fonseca - 1.5 Sets @ 1.70 William Hill (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Tommy Paul Over 40.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 21-19, - 5.92 Units (78 Units Staked, - 7.59% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment