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Showing posts with label July 3rd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label July 3rd. Show all posts

Friday, 3 July 2026

Wimbledon Tennis Day 5 Picks 2026 (Friday 3rd July)

The opening three days of the 2026 Wimbledon tournament were difficult for the Picks, but the Day 4 selections provided something of a bounce back, although with plenty of work still to do.

Two Rounds have been completed and the test for the players is going to increase significantly over the coming days as the heat begins to pick up in London and that means those who have been involved in tough opening matches could be lacking some energy.

Focus is going to be key as the tournament concludes the first week of the tournament over the next two days- Middle Sunday is no longer a tradition here so the Fourth Round will begin on that day rather than the Manic Monday that used to be arguably the best day in the sport.

Most of the top names have managed to work their way through the opening couple of matches, but the level of competition will ramp up from the Third Round.

There are some good matches scheduled on Friday when the Third Round begins, but we are now down to using four courts as the number of Singles matches are reduced across both Men's and Women's tournaments.

Hopefully that also means the momentum from Day 4 can kick the Tennis Picks forward on Day 5 when it all goes again.


Joao Fonseca - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullon: The first big breakthrough at Grand Slam level was made at the last Major when Joao Fonseca reached the French Open Quarter Final and he is one win away from reaching the second week at Wimbledon for the first time. The teenager has a big reputation, but it should be remembered he is relatively inexperienced, despite being high enough in the World Rankings to earn a Seed, and Joao Fonseca is continuing to learn a little more with each tournament played.

He does not have an extensive resume on the grass courts, but Joao Fonseca has made casual work of the first two opponents in the draw and has yet to drop a set. The wins over Roberto Bautista Agut and Jesper de Jong both deserve respect for the manner in which they were put together, while Joao Fonseca has already matched the run to the Third Round here that was achieved last year.

Taking advantage of the draw was key for Joao Fonseca was beaten in the Third Round by a Qualifier Ranked outside of the top 100, but one who had been much higher in the Rankings previously before injuries saw Nicolas Jarry drop down.

A similar challenge has cropped up for Joao Fonseca in 2026 as he takes on a Qualifier in Roman Safiullon who is the World Number 132, but who had been inside the top 40 in January 2024.

Five sets had been needed for Roman Safiullon to come through the Third Qualifying Round and he has needed four hours in each of the opening two wins in the main draw, which have both ended in final set tie-breakers. One of those was an upset over Andrey Rublev, but it should be noted the amount of work that Roman Safiullon has had to put into the tournament already and you do have to wonder if he will have the energy required to see off a talent like Fonseca.

Roman Safiullon has always served pretty well on the grass, but the return game has held him back and that is going to be an issue in a match like this one.

The heat is picking up in London, which brings another challenge for the lower Ranked player to face having invested so much to reach the Third Round of this Grand Slam.

Joao Fonseca should have plenty of respect for the upset that Roman Safiullon has already had in the draw to knock out one Seed, but the former should be much fitter when this Third Round match gets underway and that should see the teenager find a way to get through without the need for Roman Safiullon to be involved in another final set decider.


Hubert Hurkacz-Tommy Paul over 40.5 games: Barring a change in mind regarding his retirement, the answer to who beat Roger Federer in his final Grand Slam match will be Hubert Hurkacz, who upset the dominant Wimbledon Champion in a match right here in SW19 in 2021.

Hubert Hurkacz reached the Semi Final that year where he was beaten by Matteo Berrettini, but he was surprisingly beaten early in 2022 and 2024 and the best run the Pole has had at Wimbledon since 2021 is a single appearance in the Fourth Round. For a player with the serve that he possesses, Hubert Hurkacz will feel he should have had more success at Wimbledon and he remains dangerous.

Injuries have meant Hubert Hurkacz entered the main draw as the World Number 96 and so the two wins on the board feel important to just reverse a trend that saw him slipping out of the top 100. That would have meant having to go through Qualifiers for the biggest events on the Tour and it may have been a challenge for a 29 year old to want to dig in and go again.

Hubert Hurkacz has beaten both Casper Ruud and Sebastian Ofner without dropping a set, but he will be the first to admit that this Third Round match represents a significant step up in class.

In warm up events, Hubert Hurkacz was beaten in the First Round in Hertogenbosch and Second Round in Halle and now has to take on the Queen's Club Runner Up in Tommy Paul.

The American comes into the Wimbledon tournament as the Number 21 Seed, but Tommy Paul has not really ripped things up in SW19 as you may have thought. He does have one Quarter Final under his belt, but Paul won Queen's Club last year and was beaten in the Second Round at Wimbledon a couple of weeks later and so there will be a feeling that he has not achieved as much as he perhaps should have in this Grand Slam.

Tommy Paul is another player who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and he is a win or two away from cracking back into the top 20 of the World Rankings and having a real lift ahead of the US Open, which begins in late August. Much like Hubert Hurkacz, the Tommy Paul numbers show a player who has long been comfortable on the grass courts and so this has the makings of a competitive match.

Whoever serves closest to their best will win and conditions in London should see both rolling through those service games against largely limited returners.

Out of the two, the clear edge is with Tommy Paul as far as the returning goes, but Hubert Hurkacz will feel he can get into tie-breakers and then it just takes one or two good returns to win a set.

In the previous matches on the Tour against one another, Tommy Paul has shown that superior returning to hold a 3-1 advantage, although the two hard court matches have been split (the other two have been on clay). They are meeting for the first time on the grass, but the feeling is that Tommy Paul is playing at a higher level and should eventually come through.

However, Hubert Hurkacz can use the hotter conditions to make sure he is serving with effectiveness to at least win a set and there is every chance the players can combine for enough service games to eventually surpass this total line set.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Playing back to back five setters with the last of those carrying into another day is far from ideal for 36 year old Jan-Lennard Struff and he is going to have to find some serious energy ahead of this Third Round match. The only positive is that he will not have been taxed in many long rallies in a Second Round match that featured well over 80 Aces between himself and Brandon Nakashima, but that does mean having to battle through some tough moments that can both tax a player mentally and physically.

Jan-Lennard Struff will use all of his experience to try and prepare for this Third Round match as well as he can, while he is well aware of the qualities of Daniil Medvedev, which should mean plenty of clarity as to what he must do to make this competitive.

Serving well is the absolute key and it has been the Struff serve that has helped him move through the opening two Rounds in the main draw. It is a weapon that can make things that much easier for the German, but Jan-Lennard Struff has twice tried to take down Daniil Medvedev at Wimbledon before and lost in very similar fashions both times.

In 2021, Jan-Lennard Struff had beaten Daniil Medvedev on the grass courts of Halle, but lost in the First Round at Wimbledon to the same opponent after being outplayed in the first two sets, rallied to win the third set 6-4 and then losing in a fourth set tie-breaker.

That players met at Wimbledon again in 2024, but this time in the Third Round, and Daniil Medvedev outplayed Jan-Lennard Struff in the opening two sets, dropped the third 6-4, and then came through in a fourth set tie-breaker.

Daniil Medvedev recorded two wins over Jan-Lennard Struff on the hard courts in 2025 and in the career meetings, it has been the former who has tended to get a much better read on the return of serve and that has ultimately led to a lot more wins than defeats.

In this tournament, Daniil Medvedev has played one sloppy set, but largely been in control of both matches and he is quietly going about his business. A couple of decent, if unspectacular, runs in warm up events will have just reminded Daniil Medvedev of his ability to compete on the grass courts and he should have much more energy for much longer compared with the World Number 74.

Serving well will just keep the pressure on Jan-Lennard Struff and Daniil Medvedev may do enough to cover this handicap mark as he would have done with the scoreline produced in the two wins over this opponent at this Grand Slam event. It may take a bit of time to really take control if Jan-Lennard Struff is able to come out with some energy, but Daniil Medvedev looks to be playing at a level that can continue his dominance of this opponent.


Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: Winning the Boys Title at Wimbledon does not always mean that those names will go onto the senior Tour and have the same success at this Grand Slam in the Men's event.

For every Pat Cash, Stefan Edberg and Roger Federer, there are a host of names who have won the Boys Title without having a big impact at the main Wimbledon tournament.

Two of those former Boys Champions are facing one another in the Third Round in 2026 and it is a big match for both Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Marton Fucsovics- between these players, there has only been one previous appearance in the second week at Wimbledon and that was in 2021 when Marton Fucsovics went on to reach the Quarter Final.

The record here will disappointment both players, but it does feel like Fucsovics has missed his opportunities to better that Quarter Final run, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina arrived at Wimbledon as a grass court title winner in Mallorca. It is a reminder of his ability on the surface and the Spaniard has made easy work of the first two matches as he has pushed through without dropping a set.

Marton Fucsovics had little success in warm up tournaments for Wimbledon, but he has benefited form injury issues for his previous two opponents to reach the Third Round again. His First Round match only made it through four games of the second set, while Learner Tien was having a host of issues in the Second Round as he fell in four sets and that does mean there is a bit more uncertainty surrounding the current level being produced by Marton Fucsovics.

He is going to need to find another level to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who will feel that the Marton Fucsovics serve is vulnerable having allowed 18 Break Point chances in the win over Learner Tien. A healthier Tien might have won that match and Davidovich Fokina is unlikely to let Marton Fucsovics off the hook in this Third Round match.

Pressure can do a funny thing to players and there is pressure on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who has only reached the Quarter Final at Grand Slam level once before and who has not made the second week in 17 of the last 19 Majors he has competed in. The World Number 23 will expect to win this match and so will have to deal with the emotions around it, but Davidovich Fokina can do what is required to eventually pull through and cover this potentially awkward looking line on the way into the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Joao Fonseca - 1.5 Sets @ 1.70 William Hill (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Tommy Paul Over 40.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 21-19, - 5.92 Units (78 Units Staked, - 7.59% Yield)

Sunday, 28 June 2026

2026 World Cup- Last 32 Knock Out Round Picks (Sunday 28th June-Friday 3rd July)

The 2026 World Cup has felt like it has made a relatively low key start- there have been some strong stories with the likes of Cape Verde and South Africa pushing into the Knock Out Rounds, while some of the leading names in the sport have made a big impact in the Group Stage.

However, it has also felt like there has been a lack of jeopardy in the Group Stage, although don't mention that to the very disappointing Marcelo Bielsa and his Uruguay squad, and that has perhaps meant there is not nearly the same sense of drama as in previous tournaments when only two out of the four teams in each Group would be progressing to the latter stages of the competition.

The hope is that the Last 32 Knock Out ties will begin to raise the temperature around the matches, although those in London and the UK may have had just about enough of the heat in recent days, and that intensity increase should make the games a little more appealing all around.

Before the tournament began, there would have been some criticism of this extra Round in the Knock Out Bracket, but there are some good looking matches to be played with the most notable being the Netherlands facing Morocco and Portugal taking on Croatia.

Once this Round is in the books, the Last 16 has the potential to put together some very high quality teams and that should really get this World Cup Finals moving in a very positive direction for fans in the Stadium and those watching on from back home.

In three weeks time, the team holding the World Cup crown for the next four years will be confirmed and all involved in the Knock Out Bracket will give themselves a moment to dream.



2026 World Cup Last 32 Picks

Sunday 28th June
South Africa vs Canada Pick: Two of the three co-hosts finished top of their World Cup Groups and that has meant having home advantage for the next two Knock Out Round ties if they can keep winning.

The exception is Canada after they were beaten 2-1 by Switzerland in the final Group game and that means having to move out of Vancouver and head into the United States.

First up is a match against surprising South Africa who were beaten in the opener by Mexico and then needed a very late equaliser to avoid virtual elimination against Czechia. An upset over South Korea helped South Africa reach the Knock Out Rounds of the World Cup for the first time, but they will need to be more composed in the final third if they are going to keep those upsets going.

South Africa have taken plenty of shots in the last couple of games, but they are not always making the best decisions in the final third and that is likely going to let them down.

This Canada team have come through what looks a weak Group and there is still a concern that they do not score enough goals having managed eight in the Group Stage, but six against Qatar. Scoring once in each game against European opponents Bosnia-Herzegovina and Switzerland is an issue, even if Canada created the better chances in both games and perhaps were a little unfortunate to only earn a single point.

The hope, and expectation, is that this South Africa team is one of the more manageable Last 32 opponents that Canada could have asked for and they should have the superior firepower in the final third to make the difference.

Credit has to be given to South Africa for finding a way out of the Group Stage, but it was a weak section that only provided two teams in the Last 32 and Canada can win this one in normal time.


Monday 29th June
Brazil vs Japan Pick: Topping the Group ahead of Morocco has given Brazil the opportunity to face a Runner Up, but this fixture against Japan has every chance of becoming very awkward for the five time former World Champions.

Twenty-four years have passed since Brazil last won the World Cup and this squad and manager is under pressure to deliver.

A Last 32 exit would be a huge blow and Brazil are very reliant on the superstar forwards to make up for what has been a vulnerable midfield and a defence that can be attacked out wide. There are other elements to the Brazil team that are to be admired with a solid goalkeeper and two centre halves who played in the Champions League Final, but Scotland and Morocco showed in the Group that there is still a vulnerability about this team and Japan will offer a stern test.

Despite the absence of a couple of key attackers, Japan have scored in all of their Group games and have produced some very good football to create solid openings.

One clean sheet is a concern though and these two nations shared out five goals when they met in an international friendly last October- Brazil were leading 0-2 in Tokyo before Japan's epic fightback to win 3-2 and there is a feeling that this Last 32 tie could be a pretty entertaining affair.

Knock Out Football can sometimes lead to tension, but both Brazil and Japan will believe they are best on the front foot and backing at least three goals to be shared out in normal time is the play.

The lean is with Brazil to find a way through, but Japan should offer plenty of resistance and threat and 2-1 to the favourites feels the most likely conclusion to this fixture.


Germany vs Paraguay Pick: Julian Nagelsmann has been far from happy with the schedule faced by his Germany team ahead of the Last 32- as one of the Group Winners that were facing a third placed team, Nagelsmann was upset that his team may have to wait until Saturday night to know the opponent for a Last 32 tie scheduled for Monday.

However, it has been looking like Paraguay would be the opponent for a while and so there will be no excuses if Germany fail to beat the South American nation and move through to the Last 16.

The last two World Cup tournaments since winning it all in 2014 having ended in embarrassing Group Stage exits and so Germany have achieved the first aim of getting out of their section. The defeat to Ecuador was disappointing, but Germany have played pretty well and will certainly feel they hold the edge over a Paraguay team that were thumped by the United States and somehow managed to hang on for a 1-0 win over Turkiye despite being outplayed.

A wasteful display from Turkiye helped after Paraguay had scored with the first real shot of the game, but the attacking numbers have to improve if there is going to be an upset in this one.

Paraguay have created a total of 1.04 XG across the first three matches at the World Cup and they have had a total of five shots on target.

It is hard to imagine that being good enough against arguably the best team they will have faced in the tournament and one that has scored ten goals already.

Germany did score seven of those against Curacao, but two against Ivory Coast and one against Ecuador suggests they will have the quality needed to break down a Paraguay team that have kept two consecutive clean sheets. However, Turkiye created so many good chances against them that they could have matched the four goals the United States managed against Paraguay and the best approach to this Last 32 tie may be backing the Germans to win with a clean sheet at an appealing price.


Netherlands vs Morocco Pick: This looks to be one of the best ties in the Last 32 and there is going to be a lot of interest in this fixture, although the timing of the game could not be much worse for those back home in Netherlands and Morocco.

Both teams earned seven points in the Group Stage and impressed in different ways, but Netherlands topped their section and Morocco finished behind Brazil in their own.

There is going to be a real familiarity with one another, even if they have not played each other very recently, and it has been a tie that has opened up a discussion about identity- Morocco are the first nation to ever field a full starting eleven that have been born outside of the country when they lined up to play Brazil.

A number of the Morocco squad have come through the Dutch footballing system and it feels like this is going to develop into a tense, competitive fixture between two nations Ranked at Number 7 and Number 8 in the FIFA World Rankings (Morocco are just ahead of Netherlands).

With that in mind, would it really be a big surprise if this was the first of the 2026 World Cup matches that needed to go into Extra Time and perhaps Penalties?

Morocco have not been the most creative going forward, but they are very solid defensively and the approach is likely going to be one that looks to contain the Netherlands and hit them on the counter.

Ronald Koeman's team have scored at least twice in each World Cup match, but the fixture against Japan was notable for the lack of clear chances created- both teams produced strong finishing in the 2-2 draw, but Netherlands may struggle to create a lot against this Morocco defence that largely had Brazil at arm's distance in the Group Stage.

There is so much beyond the football field that will be motivating both sets of players and it may end up being a tense game with little between them- one goal could be enough to separate the teams either way, but it would not be a surprise if we end up with a 1-1 scoreline and the need for at least Extra Time and perhaps Penalties to be used to find out which of the teams is playing in the Last 16 on Saturday afternoon.


Tuesday 30th June
Ivory Coast vs Norway Pick: The format for the 2026 World Cup does mean there are a couple of ties in the Last 32 which involve teams that have finished Runners Up in the Group Stage.

One of those is Ivory Coast facing Norway after the teams finished behind Germany and Brazil respectively.

Both teams have impressed during the Group Stage with only defeats against the top teams in each section, but wins over the other two teams faced.

Norway should take particular encouragement from beating Senegal 3-2, but Ivory Coast's win and performance against Ecuador is one that should be given ample amount of respect too.

There is very little between these teams, but Norway do have the extra firepower in the final third that could make the difference. You would consider Ivory Coast the stronger defensive team considering some of the chances that Norway have allowed in this tournament, but the latter have Erling Haaland putting the finishing touches to some smart attacking play and that may give them the narrow edge when all is said and done.

However, Ivory Coast are more than dangerous enough to play their part and it could end up being a fixture that finishes up 2-1 either way, and backing goals certainly feels more comfortable than trying to pick a winner. The feeling is that Norway will do enough, but if they defend as they have in the Group Stage, this Ivory Coast team is more than good enough to hurt them the other way and the expectation is for a relatively attacking contest to develop, even in a Knock Out environment that can breed tension.


France vs Sweden Pick: They came into the tournament as one of the favourites and France finished top of their Group with maximum points and ten goals scored having put at least three past each of Senegal, Iraq and Norway.

However, despite that, you could argue that France have yet to put in a full ninety minute display and that is very worrying for those that look to stop them winning a second World Cup in three runnings of the tournament.

The attacking options available to the French looked impressive on paper and those players all look to be playing with the confidence that will make them very dangerous.

It is going to take some effort from Graham Potter's Sweden to prevent France from working their way through to the Last 16 and the 5-1 loss to Netherlands is hard to ignore. They were also struggling against Japan before Anthony Elanga's cross-shot provided an equaliser for Sweden, but this is a team that will have to defend so much better to contain the France attack.

Getting the ball into the likes of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak will be difficult for Sweden and it looks like the European nation that got into the World Cup via the Play Offs are going to have the run ended and ended emphatically.

Sweden will feel they can cause some problems if they are able to counter with clear execution, while they will be looking to exploit any tension in the French camp with the burden of pressure on their shoulders, but it feels like the Swedes will need plenty of fortune to help them past this opponent.

Ultimately France are too good in that final third to believe Sweden can contain the threat for long enough and another comfortable win for one of the favourites is expected.


Mexico vs Ecuador Pick: Goals will change games and especially in the Knock Out Rounds of any tournament, but this one between Mexico and Ecuador looks like it will be very competitive and another that may need to move through Extra Time and Penalties to determine a winner.

Ecuador needed a late goal to turn things around against Germany and win the final Group match to move through as one of the best third place teams. They had arrived in North America as a 'dark horse', but the challenge for them now is building on finding a way to get through the Group having been beaten by Ivory Coast and then failing to score against Curacao in the opening two games in that section.

This is a team that have looked pretty composed defensively, but the long-term concern is that Ecuador have perhaps not found the right system in the attacking third.

Nothing has been wrong with the chances created at this tournament, but Ecuador have perhaps lacked some quality in those areas and now they have the challenge of playing an away game in the Knock Out Stages as they are forced to travel to Mexico City for the Last 32 tie.

It is where co-hosts and Group A Winners Mexico will be waiting for Ecuador and the challenge for the home team is proving that they are better than merely a team that took advantage of a weak Group.

Mexico beat South Africa, South Korea and Czechia without conceding a goal, but all of those teams are already on the way home.

The fans will certainly give Mexico a push, but the fixture against South Korea was pretty closely contested and these two nations played out a goalless draw when they met in the Copa America two years ago.

It is hard to imagine there will be much between them in this Last 32 tie and there is a real belief that one goal could be all it takes to provide the Last 16 nation.

Picking a winner looks very tough, but it would be a surprise if this is a goal-filled contest and backing the defences to be on top for the majority of the game is the pick.


Wednesday 1st July
England vs DR Congo Pick: Functional football has helped England through to the Knock Out Rounds of the World Cup, but Thomas Tuchel is under pressure to deliver more.

Injuries to the right back position has frustrated the media and the fans, who all felt this was an issue waiting to come up, but Tuchel will only be concentrating on trying to find a way to help England into what looks a massive test when facing Mexico in the Azteca in the Last 16.

It will be a fixture that is not going to be needed to be played if England are upset on Wednesday, but that looks unlikely.

DR Congo deserve credit for getting here, but they have not defended with a lot of authority against Colombia and Portugal and England should have far too much in the final third. The defenders will be well used to facing Yoane Wissa, who has impressed, while the attacking players will see this DR Congo defence as one that can be broken down.

Of course the same could have been said about Ghana, but DR Congo have not shown the same organisation as their fellow African nation and England should have the difference makers in the final third to eventually do enough to move through with another clean sheet.


Belgium vs Senegal Pick: Both of these teams need to improve significantly if they are going to have a deep run at the World Cup, but Belgium and Senegal have shown enough attacking football to believe they could play one of the more high-scoring fixtures of the Round.

Neither defence can expect to contain the other and both Belgium and Senegal have created some big chances in the Group Stage.

The key to the outcome in this one is the composure that the attackers are able to show, but Belgium might have turned a corner in the last fixture and Senegal also produced plenty in the attacking third to believe they can win this one.

Another European vs African nation ending a 2-1 scoreline would not surprise, although the lean is that Senegal may be ready for the upset.


United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Pick: This is not going to be an easy game for the United States, but the Bosnia-Herzegovina team have lacked a bit of quality at the World Cup.

That has been the case at both ends of the pitch and the co-hosts should have all of the qualities needed to make sure they move through to the Last 16 without too many issues.

It should be said that United States came through a weak Group, but Bosnia-Herzegovina were clearly second best against Canada and Switzerland in their own section and can be grateful that Qatar made up the section.

Bosnia-Herzegovina did earn a draw with one of the co-hosts, Canada, but they were second best on the day and the United States have looked a different level to the northern neighbours.

It also should be said that Bosnia-Herzegovina looked a little tired at times in the Group Stage, but they will be asked to work hard from the very outset of this one and USA can move through to the Last 16 behind another good looking win.


Thursday 2nd July
Spain vs Austria Pick: The two Finalists from the 2022 World Cup have both been making the big headlines in the 2026 tournament and that may actually suit Spain a little bit.

Luis de la Fuente guided Spain to the Euro 2024 success and this has been one of the top teams on the European continent over the last three years, but the World Cup has proven to be an unhappy hunting ground more often than not. They won in 2010 in South Africa, but performances in 2014, 2018 and 2022 have been disappointing and so it is perhaps a good thing that Spain have not peaked in the Group Stage, but are warming up to the task at hand.

The level quickly increases in the Knock Out Rounds and Spain are without Nico Williams, but they should still have too much for Austria in this Last 32 tie.

Austria only just made it through after scoring with seconds remaining against Algeria, and they were pretty well beaten by Argentina in the Group Stage. Ralf Rangnick likes his team to press from the front, but that may play into Spain's hands and the absence of Christoph Baumgartner has hurt Austria in the final third.

Breaking down Spain is one challenge, but Austria will have to defend a lot better than what has been shown in this tournament if they are going to contain this attack.

Spain have only scored five goals in the Group Stage, but they have created plenty of chances and the expectation is that this experienced squad will grow as the tournament progresses. There is a potentially awkward Last 16 tie coming up, but Spain cannot think too far ahead and the style of Austria may just allow them to remind everyone that they are the current European Champions and a big threat to win a second World Cup.


Portugal vs Croatia Pick: The favourites for this Last 32 tie are Portugal and that may be simply down to the fact that the starting eleven only has one player that looks like his best is a long way behind him, while Croatia are still relying on a few more.

Croatia finished second in the Group behind England, but have not really impressed and it is does feel like a major tournament too far for some of their top names.

They narrowly edged out Panama and Ghana in wins, but Croatia have to be a lot better when taking on another top European nations having been crushed 4-2 by England. They have not defended as well as they would have hoped and this Portugal team are very capable going forward, even if they are still searching for Cristiano Ronaldo for too long and far too often.

It has made Portugal a little predictable, but they should have the majority of the ball and the fresher midfield belongs to them.

Portugal are likely to dominate the shot count and Croatia may struggle to contain them, although the former are a team that have been used to making hard work of major tournament football in recent years. In the last European Championship, Portugal drew with both Slovenia and France in Knock Out ties that went all the way to Penalties and they are perhaps too short in this Last 32 tie, even if they ultimately prevail.

It would be a significant surprise if Croatia were to win this one game inside regular time, but the value here is with the draw and a fourth Knock Out tie in this Round that does need Extra Time to find a winner.


Switzerland vs Algeria Pick: After only barely getting themselves over the line to reach the Last 32 of the World Cup, there are plenty out there who will believe that Algeria's time in the tournament will soon be coming to an end.

However, Algeria have been much better since the 3-0 opening loss to Argentina when the tactics were wrong as they allowed the World Champions to build into the game.

More familiar tactics and team selections helped Algeria beat Jordan and then draw 3-3 with Austria and that kind of level will make them dangerous.

Of course it should be noted that Switzerland topped Group B ahead of co-hosts Canada and this is a team who have got some momentum behind them having beaten Bosnia-Herzegovina before that win over one of the hosts. That means the opening draw with Qatar is behind them, but both of these teams will be slightly concerned with the defensive performances in the tournament.

There has been little wrong with the attacking side of Switzerland and Algeria and that may mean the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals in this one.

Knock Out ties have a tendency to be more cautious, but that may be the case later in the tournament when teams are more closely matched up.

At this stage, both Switzerland and Algeria will fancy taking on the other and that could be reflected in the approach of the managers and the players and goals could follow.


Friday 3rd July
Australia vs Egypt Pick: Credit has to be given to Australia for getting out of the Group Stage, but Asian Qualifiers have disappointed in the 2026 World Cup and this is another one of those that may have reached the end of the line.

An upset over Turkiye set Australia on their way, but a functional team has struggled for goals and that is always going to be a problem.

Egypt have won a first World Cup match at this tournament and have reached the Knock Out Rounds for the first time after finishing behind Belgium in the Group.

There is talent in the forward areas that gives Egypt the edge in this Last 32 tie and they look most likely to move through to the Last 16 and can be backed to do that.


Argentina vs Cape Verde Pick: Nothing will ever erase the memories that Cape Verde have created at the 2026 World Cup and the fact is that these players will never forget having faced the European Champions and World Champions in the same tournament.

They held Spain, but Cape Verde have had to ride their luck against the Spanish and Uruguay and you have to believe that fortune will run out against Argentina.

The underdog will give it a go, but Argentina's qualities and experience should guide them through without too much drama. Lionel Messi has been making all of the headlines, but Lautaro Martinez has been plenty involved for Argentina and backing the striker to 'score or assist' in an Argentina win looks a decent price.

Even if he is replaced, the likelihood is that Julian Alvarez will come in for Martinez and this 'sub play on' option gives the selection every time of coming out on top.


Colombia vs Ghana Pick: The team managed by Carlos Queiroz have shown plenty of resilience in this tournament and Ghana can make things difficult for Colombia, even if the latter are going to have the majority of the ball.

DR Congo did their best to keep Colombia at bay, but Ghana may feel they are a bit more organised than their African rivals and that can help.

However, Colombia's attacking qualities cannot be ignored and they will put Ghana under pressure throughout this one- the team will take shots from all angles and that makes it tougher for defenders to reset and get into blocking positions.

In the win over DR Congo, Colombia had 9 shots on target and they can put up at least 6 here against a Ghana team that will be looking to hit them on the break. Ghana have been pretty solid, but they will allow shots to be taken against them, but from range, and it may allow Colombia to fill up the stat sheet in this one.

MY PICKS: Canada @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)
Brazil-Japan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Germany Win to Nil @ 2.25 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Netherlands-Morocco Draw @ 3.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Ivory Coast-Norway Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
France - 1 English Handicap @ 1.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mexico-Ecuador Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.40 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
England Win to Nil @ 1.80 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Belgium-Senegal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
United States - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Spain - 1 English Handicap @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Portugal-Croatia Draw @ 3.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Switzerland-Algeria Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Egypt to Qualify @ 1.61 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Argentina to Win & Lautaro Martinez to Score or Assist @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Colombia Over 5.5 Shots on Target @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Last 32: 10-6, + 4.38 Units (16 Units Staked, + 27.38% Yield)

Group Stage MD 3: 11-11-1, - 1.29 Units (23 Units Staked, - 5.61% Yield)
Group Stage MD 2: 16-8, + 7.44 Units (24 Units Staked, + 31% Yield)
Group Stage MD 1: 12-12, - 0.30 Units (24 Units Staked, - 1.25% Yield)

Tuesday, 2 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 3rd July)

Everyone wants to be able to finish a career on their own terms and that is especially the case for athletes and even more so when it comes to the individual sports.

Unlike Boxing, we don't see our heroes beaten down in the same manner as a fighter who goes on too long, but it doesn't make it any easier for Tennis players to be able to accept their own mortality.

Andy Murray has made it clear for several months that this is going to be his last year on the Tour as his body has failed to shake off the injuries that would have allowed to compete as he would like. He made it clear that it will either be at Wimbledon or at the Olympic Games when time would need to be called, but a cruel twist of fate meant Murray picked up an injury at Queen's Club and ultimately that has meant he is not going to play the Singles tournament for the last time.

A two time former Wimbledon Champion, Andy Murray is not the only loved player that has failed to be able to leave this tournament on his own terms.

Ultimately that is the issue with Tennis- you cannot make any plans when an injury in the later stages of a career are that much more impactful.

There is no way Roger Federer would have wanted his last memory on Centre Court being on the end of bagel at the end of a straight sets defeat to Hubert Hurkacz, while seven time Wimbledon Champion Pete Sampras was beaten in the Second Round on Court Two in what turned out to be his last appearance here.

At least Sampras was able to win the US Open a couple of months later and he eventually decided he had nothing left in the tank so could end on a 'high', although without the celebrations that accompanied the likes of Serena Williams.


This was always the issue with Andy Murray putting a final end date on his time on the Tour, unlike Rafael Nadal who continues to insist he is unsure if he has played his last match at the French Open.

It is a real disappointment for the fans, who would have wanted to show their appreciation for Andy Murray's efforts, although they will have another opportunity when he lines up next to brother Jamie for the Men's Doubles.

Maybe there is still room for a perfect sign off at Wimbledon after all!


Day 3 moves into the Second Round of the tournament and that means the top half of the Men's draw and the bottom half of the Ladies draw are in action again.

Aryna Sabalenka's late withdrawal has really opened the bottom half up and it would not be a surprise if we are to get a surprising Finalist once again.

Coco Gauff will be the clear favourite to plow her way through the draw, but she has suffered some upsets on the surface and it really could be any of a handful of players that take advantage.

The late withdrawal has certainly hurt the draw with the Ladies top half looking extremely loaded in comparison and that is a shame.

However, it is also an opportunity for players to have a big impact at the third Grand Slam of the season and also means there is a new pressure that many will be dealing with in anticipation of having a strong run.

The Men's draw is largely intact in the top half, but there is also one mouthwatering Second Round match coming up on Day 3 which should be on a big show court for the fans to enjoy.


Coco Gauff - 6.5 games v Anca Alexia Todoni: She may have admitted to feeling some nerves ahead of the First Round match at Wimbledon having lost in the opening Round twelve months ago, but you would not have guessed that was the case for Coco Gauff.

A dominant First Round win saw the World Number 2 through to the next Round and the withdrawal of Aryna Sabalenka has certainly opened the bottom half of the draw.

Coco Gauff will not want to think too far ahead and leave herself vulnerable to an upset, but it would be a surprise if she is not able to make the second week at Wimbledon again. That was the outcome in her first two appearances at Wimbledon in 2019 when announcing herself to a wider public and in 2021, although Coco Gauff has been disappointingly beaten in the last couple of years before the Fourth Round.

She has already reached the Semi Final at the first two Grand Slams of the season having won the US Open last year, and Coco Gauff has to believe that is the least she should achieve at Wimbledon.

Next up is young Romanian Anca Alexia Todoni, the World Number 142 who is set for a new career best World Ranking at the end of this tournament. Four wins in a row, three in Qualifiers, will be a boost for Todoni who is playing in just her second grass court tournament, but this is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of competition.

For starters Anca Alexia Todoni has beaten four players who are all Ranked outside the top 100, and she has yet to face a top 50 Ranked opponent.

There is some potential here when you think Anca Alexia Todoni is 6-1 against top 100 Ranked opponents, although the majority of those matches have been on the clay courts. This time she will be playing on a big show court and against a player who has the qualities to add to the Grand Slam won at the US Open and Coco Gauff should make that tell in this match.

It is a big handicap mark, but Coco Gauff is capable of winning a set with a couple of breaks of serve more than Anca Alexia Todoni and that should put her in a position to cover even with a more competitive second set. The American will want to just remind the rest of the bottom half of the Ladies draw that she is the player to beat without Aryna Sabalenka in the draw and Gauff can win well.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Yafan Wang: The type of tennis that Madison Keys is able to play is always going to make her a threat on the faster surfaces and she has had plenty of successes on the grass courts. Twelve months ago she was a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon having won the title in Eastbourne, while she was a Semi Finalist in Eastbourne prior to this Grand Slam beginning.

In saying all that, Madison Keys might be a touch disappointed with the competitiveness of the First Round win over Martina Trevisan, who is a clay court specialist.

Ultimately the key, pardon the pun, is winning and the American will believe the bottom half of the draw is very much open for her to have a really deep run at Wimbledon again.

There are one or two challengers in her section, but Madison Keys has to believe she can at least reach the Quarter Final where the likelihood is that Coco Gauff will be waiting.

However, to do that, Madison Keys has to just knuckle down and she will not want to overlook Yafan Wang who won thirteen grass court matches in 2023.

This year has been more challenging for Yafan Wang who had lost all three matches prior to Wimbledon before beating Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in the First Round. It was a real battle for Yafan Wang who had lost all six grass court sets played prior to the third Grand Slam of the season and so there is still a real gap to bridge to someone as comfortable on this surface as Madison Keys.

Getting enough first serves in play will at least put Madison Keys under some pressure, but the real key to the outcome of this Second Round match is how well Yafan Wang is able to return. In her three matches on grass last month, Wang was only able to win 32% of return points played and she could be put under immense pressure by Madison Keys, which may lead to scoreboard pressure to build up.

When these players met on a hard court back in September 2018, it was Yafan Wang's inability to get her teeth into the Madison Keys serve that saw the American come through with a comfortable win. While things have changed in the almost six years since they last met, Yafan Wang is perhaps still vulnerable to the big serving that Madison Keys can produce and that may see the World Number 13 come away with a relatively comfortable win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Juncheng Shang: It was perhaps a tougher First Round win than expected by the layers, but Grigor Dimitrov was pretty comfortable all things considered.

He is going to be favoured in this Second Round match and will be looking to build on the performance against Dusan Lajovic.

Limited grass court matches in preparation for Wimbledon can be a concern for some players, but Grigor Dimitrov is very experienced on the surface and has all of the tennis tools needed to be effective. At his best, the serve can be a very dangerous weapon and Dimitrov has the movement and balance to really hurt opponents on the return.

All of that will be needed to see off Juncheng Shang, the World Number 91 who has put plenty of grass court wins on the board over the last month.

The 19 year old left hander was a straight sets winner in the First Round and did reach the Quarter Final in a Challenger in Nottingham before doing the same at Eastbourne in an ATP tournament in the lead up to Wimbledon. Juncheng Shang suffered a competitive defeat to Taylor Fritz, although he will appreciate the fact that Grigor Dimitrov is a more dangerous return player on the surface.

The serve has been effective for Juncheng Shang, which will make him dangerous, but he was pretty comfortably beaten by Billy Harris and Jacob Fearnley in matches played over the last month. Those defeats are difficult to shake off and the feeling is that Grigor Dimitrov might have a bit too much all around quality on the grass for a young player who is still finding his feet on the Tour.

Nothing ever comes easily for Dimitrov and it will be important to make a strong start to prevent Juncheng Shang from building his way into the match through increased confidence.

If he can do that, the Bulgarian should have enough to wear down this opponent on his way through to the Third Round on Friday.


Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini over 38.5 games: As soon as the draw for the Wimbledon tournament was made, the match that stood out as a potentially huge one for the Second Round involved two Italians right at the top of the draw.

It is Jannik Sinner who arrives at Wimbledon as the World Number 1 and top Seed in the draw, but he will be well aware of the quality and the threat that his compatriot will pose. Matteo Berrettini may not be in the Seeded positions, but this is a player who has loved playing on the grass and has won titles and reached the Wimbledon Final before in his career.

Injuries and a loss of form have been an issue, but Berrettini was impressive in his First Round win and he will be very comfortable playing on Centre Court. He had little grass court preparation last year, but Matteo Berrettini was still able to reach the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and took the opening set against eventual Champion Carlos Alcaraz before going down in four sets.

This time around, Matteo Berrettini has reached the Final in Stuttgart before a relatively disappointing early loss in Halle, but he continues to showcase grass court pedigree that made him a dangerous floater in this draw. Serving well will be the key for Berrettini who has held 94% of service games played on the grass before Wimbledon and he will need to find a way to put Jannik Sinner under pressure.

Winning the title in Halle will have given Sinner real belief and he did reach the Semi Final here last season when losing a much more competitive match than the straight sets defeat to Novak Djokovic would have suggested.

The World Number 1 was a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon in 2022 before the Semi Final run in 2023 and Jannik Sinner will certainly be targeting to go at least one better this time around. He did surprisingly drop a set against Yannick Hanfmann in the First Round, and Sinner will know that he needs to just increase the level of the return if he is going to win a Grand Slam here.

Serving has not been a problem with 97% of games held in winning the title in Halle and that is likely going to be key for Jannik Sinner to just contain the threat Matteo Berrettini is able to bring onto the court.

Jannik Sinner did beat Matteo Berrettini in straight sets on the hard courts of the Canadian Masters last August, but the latter will feel it came down to the Break Point performances on the day.

Matteo Berrettini was able to win 68% of service points played in that defeat and the grass courts are expected to aid him that much more.

The former Finalist does have all the tools needed to win at least a set in this match and Jannik Sinner will be plenty confident too so there is a feeling that this Second Round contest is every bit as good as anticipated.

If both players are able to win at least one set as expected, the two players should serve well enough to move into a position to surpass the total games line set.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jasmine Paolini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 4-4, - 0.30 Units (16 Units Staked, - 1.88% Yield)

Monday, 3 July 2023

Wimbledon Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (July 3rd)

The short grass court season between the French Open and Wimbledon means there is very little time for the players to take in events at the second Grand Slam of a season before the third one begins.

Unlike the clay courts, the grass courts are still seen very much as a 'work in progress' for many on the Tour and there is a feeling that the majority of players struggle to adapt to a surface that has about a six week season.

While Wimbledon remains a very important tournament, it does mean the contender list always feels a lot shorter than for the other Grand Slams and this year looks to be no different.

You would find it very difficult to look past Novak Djokovic as a big favourite to win an eighth title here considering he has not been beaten in SW19 since 2017 when he was forced to retire in his Quarter Final against Tomas Berdych. The last time Novak Djokovic lost a completed match at Wimbledon was in 2017 in the Third Round having won the French Open, but he won both of those Slams in 2021 to become part of a very select few male players who have won both titles in the same year.

That is perhaps the biggest challenge for Novak Djokovic, but if he has an aura in most events, the ones in Melbourne and London might be the hardest to break at Slam level. And we have already seen his biggest challenger in this draw, Carlos Alcaraz, lose his way physically when facing Novak Djokovic at the French Open last month to suggest that the second Seed is very much the clear favourite.

There are not a lot of names in the draw who you would feel could even push Novak Djokovic, but it will need someone to serve at an exceptionally high level. We have also seen Djokovic under the cosh when trailing 2-0 in sets to Jannik Sinner last year so nothing in tennis a foregone conclusion, although it would be a big upset if he is not a part of the Final at the very least in two weeks time.

It feels like the draw has been a good one for Carlos Alcaraz to have a deep run in the tournament too after winning the title at Queen's Club last month, but he is still learning his trade on the grass.

This could leave the door open for someone like Daniil Medvedev or, if the home fans are granted their wish, Andy Murray to make a real impact in the tournament. Daniil Medvedev has shown he can play on the grass effectively and he might be the player who can 'fly under the radar' while Djokovic and Alcaraz steal the headlines.


Once again the Ladies draw might be the one that really offers up an upset or two- defending Champion Elena Rybakina would likely have had a strong run, but it is hard to know where she is with her tennis having had a lingering virus that forced her out of the French Open and in Eastbourne last week.

Aryna Sabalenka is back at Wimbledon this year, but may have to deal with some hostility from the crowds compared with Roland Garros. If she can handle that, the Number 2 Seed should have a strong run in the bottom half of the draw as the third favourite, although it is the tougher half of the Ladies draw this year.

The ATP Tour had the 'Big Three' era and the hope is that Rybakina, Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek can create that rivalry on the WTA Tour which will take the sport forward. Those three players have combined to win the last five Grand Slam titles and it has given the women's side of the sport some consistency which has been lacking through Serena Williams and Ashleigh Barty's retirements in the last eighteen months.

Iga Swiatek is heading up the draw and looks to be in the weaker half, but this is a player that has not had an impact on the grass and looks to be at her most vulnerable in this Grand Slam out of the four played each year.

Picking someone to come through and challenge the World Number 1 is the question in a half of the draw missing a number of consistent grass court players, but the standout name looks to be Coco Gauff. The American is the fifth favourite in the draw and looks a big price for a deep run having long been very comfortable on this surface and it does feel like it could be Gauff's time to win a maiden Grand Slam and get a little closer to the top three names on the WTA Tour.

She is in the same Quarter as Iga Swiatek, but there is no real guarantee that the World Number 1 will be there to meet her having only reached the second week at Wimbledon on one previous occasion.

Much like the French Open, the Ladies draw at Wimbledon could be a lot of fun to watch and I do think there will be some surprising names reaching the business end of the tournament.


This all makes for a potentially fun two weeks coming up before the majority of players pack up their grass court shoes for another season and begin to think about the US Open that begins at the end of August.

The weather looks to be a little inconsistent in the first week of the tournament, which could cause problems, but Middle Sunday is no longer a 'day off' for the players and staff and that should keep the tournament firmly on schedule.

Personally it does feel like the tournament has made the right decision to remove the blanket ban they had on those from Russian and Belarusian nationalities last year, even if many won't think the same. I think it was a nonsensical decision a year ago in all honesty, but made to look a lot worse when the other tournaments refused to back up a decision made by one nation.

There will be those who believe Wimbledon should have maintained the blanket ban and others who disagree and will be wondering why other nations that have been involved in wars have not had their players banned previously. A reversal or a ban was not going to be popular either way, but it feels like the decision made without consultation was never going to be one that could be maintained beyond the 2022 season and especially not with the Tours threatening to remove licences from build up events and having stripped Ranking points.


For the majority of the fans, the focus will be on the tennis being played on the courts over the next fortnight before the Tour will move on.

Day 1 will see the defending Men's Champion open on Centre Court and that means the bottom half of the draw will be scheduled on the day. For the Ladies, Elena Rybakina will open Centre Court on Day 2, assuming she is healthy enough to compete, and so the top half of the draw will be out on Monday.


The Australian Open was a strong one for the Tennis Picks and the French Open finished with a winning record- however, a difficult second week at the second Slam of the season meant it was a very small number compared with Melbourne back in January.

However, a positive number is a good thing and I mentioned that I would be having a break through the warm up events on the grass before returning for Wimbledon.

Below you will be able to read some of my thoughts on a few of the selections being made on Day 1, which looks like it will be a good one weather wise for the players. Another strong start will be welcomed to lay the foundation for the event and hopefully that all gets underway from the opening selections.


Novak Djokovic - 10.5 games v Pedro Cachin: The number next to his Seeding may say 'two' at this tournament, but there is no doubt that Novak Djokovic is still the best player in the world and he is a massive favourite to win a third Grand Slam title in 2023.

The win in Paris has only strengthened his claims to being the best player of all time, but there are still records that could tumble by the end of this season to back up those statements. He could join Roger Federer on eight Wimbledon titles, and not many would be willing to back against Novak Djokovic doing that, while another Grand Slam title would mean the Serb has matched the total Margaret Court has set to lead all others.

It would be a remarkable achievement as the defending Men's Champion opens up proceedings on Centre Court on the first Monday in SW19 and this is something that has become a familiar sight to those who attend Wimbledon. Novak Djokovic has not been beaten in the tournament since 2017 when he was forced to retire in the Quarter Final against Tomas Berdych and he will be looking for a fifth title in a row in this part of London.

An opening match on the grass can be challenging and conditions might be a little difficult throughout the next fortnight, while Novak Djokovic has actually dropped a set in the First Round against Jack Draper in 2021 and Soon Woo Kwon last year. He has been known for working his way into the Grand Slam events, but those two opponents look to be of a considerably higher level than Pedro Cachin who has little experience of this level.

The Argentinian has faced two top 20 Ranked opponents in the Australian Open and French Open, but has little grass court experience with this being his sixth career match on the surface. Four losses in five matches won't have given him Chacin a lot of hope in this First Round match, while this is only the second main draw match in a grass court tournament.

Last month Pedro Cachin was crushed by Yannick Hanfmann on a grass court in Spain and he is not going to be given a lot of free points from Novak Djokovic.

Make no mistake that this is a very big spread for a best of five set match- however, Novak Djokovic has won half of his last ten First Round matches at Wimbledon by a margin that would have covered this number. Pedro Cachin served pretty poorly in the loss to Hanfmann and he will need to find his absolute best in that department to keep this one competitive, but Novak Djokovic has all of the tools to make an early statement and roll through this match with something like a 6/4, 6/2, 6/1 win.


Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Max Purcell: Despite making it clear he was against the war being waged by his nation against Ukraine, Andrey Rublev was one of a host of top players that were banned from competing at Wimbledon last year.

With the lifting of those restrictions, Andrey Rublev will arrive as the World Number 7 and he has shown that he has the tennis that can have an impact on the grass courts. Last month Rublev managed to work his way into the Halle Final before coming up short against Alexander Bublik, but that should mean that Andrey Rublev is pretty well prepared to play his First Round match at Wimbledon on Monday.

Andrey Rublev put a couple of wins together in an exhibition event just outside of West London last week too and he should be feeling pretty confident as one of the top Seeds at Wimbledon. He did reach the second week in 2021 and that has to be the minimum of aims for Andrey Rublev who has yet to play in a Grand Slam Semi Final, despite the strong World Ranking he holds.

The serve is an important weapon for Andrey Rublev and he has found a way to get into a rhythm on his return on the grass courts in the last three years. It helps that he is an aggressive player with that really having an impact on the grass and Andrey Rublev is a pretty solid favourite in the First Round when he faces Max Purcell.

In the past Australian players have tended to enjoy playing on the grass courts and Max Purcell has reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne in the past. Last year he won three Qualifiers to take his place in the main draw at Wimbledon before losing a to pretty solid grass court player in Adrian Mannarino, but Max Purcell was beaten by Feliciano Lopez in a disappointing performance in the lead up to the third Grand Slam of the season.

Before his win over Jordan Thompson at the French Open, Max Purcell had not won a First Round match at a Grand Slam before, although you have to credit the Aussie for heading to Wimbledon at his career best World Ranking mark.

Unfortunately he is stepping up a level by a considerable distance and Max Purcell has struggled when facing top 50 Ranked opponents. He is 2-7 in those matches, while his rise in the World Rankings from outside the top 200 at the Australian Open to his current Number 62 mark has been built on strong form on the Challenger circuit.

Max Purcell was beaten pretty comfortably by Andrey Rublev when these two players met on the grass of Eastbourne back in 2019 in the Qualifiers and the latter should have too much for him here. All credit has to be given to the Aussie player with the form shown, but stepping that up to the main Tour level is going to be the challenge and Andrey Rublev should have a little too much quality all around to come through and win this First Round match fairly comfortably by its conclusion.


Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 games v Albert Ramos: Over the last year it has felt like veteran Albert Ramos is coming close to an end in his career and he has certainly slipped off the level he once had.

At his best he was able to win some matches at Wimbledon, but Albert Ramos has suffered four consecutive First Round exits at this tournament, while his overall recent record on the grass courts has been pretty poor. He was beaten in the First Round at a warm up tournament, although Albert Ramos is not someone who will capitulate on the court and the Spaniard will have to be worn down in this one.

Pressure can be built by Hubert Hurkacz who is a former Semi Finalist at Wimbledon and who will go down as the player that beat Roger Federer in his last match, which was also here in this tournament. The Pole had a really disappointing First Round defeat in SW19 last year and his form on the grass has been a touch inconsistent over the last month, although Hurkacz continues to serve very well on the surface.

It is that serve which will be key for him here and Hubert Hurkacz is facing an opponent who has won 30% of return points played in grass court matches since 2017 and who has broken in just 10% of return games. Albert Ramos has an even poorer number when facing the Hurkacz serve having broken in just shy of 8% of return games played and that includes facing the higher Ranked player on a clay court when breaks are a little easier to create.

The clear concern with this spread is the Hubert Hurkacz return, which is pretty average in general, and the grass courts are not a surface on which an average return player can expect to have a lot of success. His numbers have proven that to be the case, even in the year when he made his run to the Semi Final, but Hurkacz has to believe he can find enough returns to put the pressure on Albert Ramos in this First Round match.

Hubert Hurkacz has broken in 23% of return games played against Albert Ramos and he should be able to have enough moments to find those he needs to cover this mark.


Harriet Dart - 3.5 games v Diane Parry: Young players do take a little bit of time to make adjustments when moving from the Juniors to the full Tour and inconsistent results are the norm.

Diane Parry is a former World Number 1 at Junior level and the 20 year old made a fast start to her professional career having gotten very close to breaking into the top 50 in the World Rankings. The last twelve months have been a touch more difficult and Parry is now edging towards an exit from the top 100, while she has had little preparation for Wimbledon where she reached the Semi Final in the Juniors tournament.

The Frenchwoman made her first appearance at the main draw at Wimbledon last year and Diane Parry did reach the Third Round so she deserves a lot of respect. However, Parry was beaten in Qualifiers last week ahead of Eastbourne and her recent form has perhaps seen the young player lose some confidence.

Handling that loss of confidence could be much tougher on Day 1 at Wimbledon when Diane Parry has to take on one of a host of British players that are involved in the main draw. Harriet Dart has reached the Quarter Final at events in Nottingham and Birmingham last month, while a loss to Jelena Ostapenko in the Second Round in Eastbourne last week will not have dented the Harriet Dart belief ahead of what looks to be a winnable First Round match.

This is a match scheduled for one of the bigger courts so both players will need to deal with the bigger crowd that is likely to be around these two as Wimbledon opens. You have to believe both have had enough experiences before to be able to play their tennis and Harriet Dart looks to have the edge on this surface at this stage of their careers.

It feels like the Harriet Dart serve is going to have a bit more success than Diane Parry's, while the British player may also have a slight edge when it comes to the return of serve. Nothing comes easy for British players with the raised expectations at Wimbledon and Dart is the lower Ranked player in this match, but that mark can take a positive jump with a win on Monday and the feeling is that Harriet Dart will do enough to cover this mark in a straight sets win.


Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Sofia Kenin: The first breakthrough that Coco Gauff made on the Tour was as a 15 year old at Wimbledon in 2019 when she reached the Fourth Round after coming through the Qualifiers. The American beat Venus Williams in that run to really make an early statement and Gauff reached the Fourth Round in 2021 at SW19 before a disappointing Third Round exit last year.

Coco Gauff will be playing as one of the favourites to win the title at Wimbledon this year and she has been placed in what looks to be the weaker half of the Ladies draw. However, that does raise expectations and Coco Gauff will not be overlooking her First Round opponent even if Sofia Kenin has fallen out of the top 100 in the World Rankings.

It feels crazy to say that considering Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open in 2020 before the Covid pandemic shut down the sport and much of the world. Injury and a loss of confidence has seen Sofia Kenin struggle to get close to that level again having been Ranked as the World Number 4 in March 2020, but three wins in Qualifiers has to be encouraging for Kenin.

Playing on the grass has not been the best experience for Sofia Kenin who has been beaten in the Second Round in each of her previous appearances at Wimbledon. She has also failed to win a match at a Grand Slam since Wimbledon in 2021, but Sofia Kenin did beat Coco Gauff at the Australian Open on her march to the title and the lower Ranked player has to believe she has nothing to lose and all of the pressure is on Coco Gauff.

In saying that, Coco Gauff has been a solid grass court player and she has the serve that can be a big weapon on the surface and that may make the difference in this match.

Coco Gauff did beat Sofia Kenin earlier this year in Auckland in a match that was played indoors and there has been enough from Gauff over the last month to make her a strong favourite against a former Slam Champion. The key to the cover is just showing a bit more controlled aggression on the return of serve, but Gauff should be able to do that against Sofia Kenin who has lost a couple of matches to players she would have expected to beat before the run in the Wimbledon Qualifiers.


Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 games v Caroline Dolehide: Some of the French Open crowd were clearly not aware of the kind of person Daria Kasatkina is when they were booing her leaving the court at the end of her loss to Elina Svitolina. The misunderstanding was thinking that a Russian national was refusing a handshake, but Daria Kasatkina was clearly respecting Svitolina's views even though she has been arguably the most vocal player on Tour speaking up against the war in Ukraine.

Daria Kasatkina's personal life is her own business, but it is something that her country would oppose and so this is clearly a person with character and strength to be as vocal as she has been. The expectation is that the Wimbledon crowd will be a bit more aware of Kasatkina's actions over the last several months and the Number 11 Seed should be given a bit more support than those in Paris offered.

She has also shown that she continues to be an effective grass court player and Daria Kasatkina's run to the Eastbourne Final will have given her plenty of confidence to take into the Wimbledon main draw. The last couple of showings at Wimbledon have been disappointing, but Daria Kasatkina is a former Quarter Finalist here and has a good looking First Round match in front of her to open this event.

Conditions might not be ideal for a player that does not have the best serve on the Tour and who will be looking to use plenty of variation in her tennis, but Daria Kasatkina is still expected to be too strong for Caroline Dolehide. The latter is the World Number 100 and reached her career best Ranking of 99 in May, but Caroline Dolehide has lost both of her grass court matches played over the last month and those have been against opponents Ranked outside of the top 100.

This is a big step up in terms of quality of opponent and it will be difficult enough for Caroline Dolehide who has lost six straight grass court matches. The 24 year old has lost all eight career meetings against top 20 Ranked opponents and you have to feel that Dolehide is going to be under pressure to get a lot of her first serves in play if she is going to upset Daria Kasatkina.

The Daria Kasatkina serve can be vulnerable and make it tough to cover the bigger handicap marks, but she is the stronger player in this match. Last week in Eastbourne, three of the four wins Kasatkina earned would have covered this handicap number and she can wear down an inexperienced Caroline Dolehide in the First Round in SW19.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 10.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 6.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Harriet Dart - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Dan Evans @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Harold Mayot @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Coral (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sara Sorribes Tormo - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)