2026 World Cup- Last 32 Knock Out Round Picks (Sunday 28th June-Friday 3rd July)

The 2026 World Cup has felt like it has made a relatively low key start- there have been some strong stories with the likes of Cape Verde and South Africa pushing into the Knock Out Rounds, while some of the leading names in the sport have made a big impact in the Group Stage.

However, it has also felt like there has been a lack of jeopardy in the Group Stage, although don't mention that to the very disappointing Marcelo Bielsa and his Uruguay squad, and that has perhaps meant there is not nearly the same sense of drama as in previous tournaments when only two out of the four teams in each Group would be progressing to the latter stages of the competition.

The hope is that the Last 32 Knock Out ties will begin to raise the temperature around the matches, although those in London and the UK may have had just about enough of the heat in recent days, and that intensity increase should make the games a little more appealing all around.

Before the tournament began, there would have been some criticism of this extra Round in the Knock Out Bracket, but there are some good looking matches to be played with the most notable being the Netherlands facing Morocco and Portugal taking on Croatia.

Once this Round is in the books, the Last 16 has the potential to put together some very high quality teams and that should really get this World Cup Finals moving in a very positive direction for fans in the Stadium and those watching on from back home.

In three weeks time, the team holding the World Cup crown for the next four years will be confirmed and all involved in the Knock Out Bracket will give themselves a moment to dream.

2026 World Cup Last 32 Picks

Sunday 28th June

South Africa vs Canada Pick: Two of the three co-hosts finished top of their World Cup Groups and that has meant having home advantage for the next two Knock Out Round ties if they can keep winning.

The exception is Canada after they were beaten 2-1 by Switzerland in the final Group game and that means having to move out of Vancouver and head into the United States.

First up is a match against surprising South Africa who were beaten in the opener by Mexico and then needed a very late equaliser to avoid virtual elimination against Czechia. An upset over South Korea helped South Africa reach the Knock Out Rounds of the World Cup for the first time, but they will need to be more composed in the final third if they are going to keep those upsets going.

South Africa have taken plenty of shots in the last couple of games, but they are not always making the best decisions in the final third and that is likely going to let them down.

This Canada team have come through what looks a weak Group and there is still a concern that they do not score enough goals having managed eight in the Group Stage, but six against Qatar. Scoring once in each game against European opponents Bosnia-Herzegovina and Switzerland is an issue, even if Canada created the better chances in both games and perhaps were a little unfortunate to only earn a single point.

The hope, and expectation, is that this South Africa team is one of the more manageable Last 32 opponents that Canada could have asked for and they should have the superior firepower in the final third to make the difference.

Credit has to be given to South Africa for finding a way out of the Group Stage, but it was a weak section that only provided two teams in the Last 32 and Canada can win this one in normal time.

Monday 29th June

Brazil vs Japan Pick: Topping the Group ahead of Morocco has given Brazil the opportunity to face a Runner Up, but this fixture against Japan has every chance of becoming very awkward for the five time former World Champions.

Twenty-four years have passed since Brazil last won the World Cup and this squad and manager is under pressure to deliver.

A Last 32 exit would be a huge blow and Brazil are very reliant on the superstar forwards to make up for what has been a vulnerable midfield and a defence that can be attacked out wide. There are other elements to the Brazil team that are to be admired with a solid goalkeeper and two centre halves who played in the Champions League Final, but Scotland and Morocco showed in the Group that there is still a vulnerability about this team and Japan will offer a stern test.

Despite the absence of a couple of key attackers, Japan have scored in all of their Group games and have produced some very good football to create solid openings.

One clean sheet is a concern though and these two nations shared out five goals when they met in an international friendly last October- Brazil were leading 0-2 in Tokyo before Japan's epic fightback to win 3-2 and there is a feeling that this Last 32 tie could be a pretty entertaining affair.

Knock Out Football can sometimes lead to tension, but both Brazil and Japan will believe they are best on the front foot and backing at least three goals to be shared out in normal time is the play.

The lean is with Brazil to find a way through, but Japan should offer plenty of resistance and threat and 2-1 to the favourites feels the most likely conclusion to this fixture.

Germany vs Paraguay Pick: Julian Nagelsmann has been far from happy with the schedule faced by his Germany team ahead of the Last 32- as one of the Group Winners that were facing a third placed team, Nagelsmann was upset that his team may have to wait until Saturday night to know the opponent for a Last 32 tie scheduled for Monday.

However, it has been looking like Paraguay would be the opponent for a while and so there will be no excuses if Germany fail to beat the South American nation and move through to the Last 16.

The last two World Cup tournaments since winning it all in 2014 having ended in embarrassing Group Stage exits and so Germany have achieved the first aim of getting out of their section. The defeat to Ecuador was disappointing, but Germany have played pretty well and will certainly feel they hold the edge over a Paraguay team that were thumped by the United States and somehow managed to hang on for a 1-0 win over Turkiye despite being outplayed.

A wasteful display from Turkiye helped after Paraguay had scored with the first real shot of the game, but the attacking numbers have to improve if there is going to be an upset in this one.

Paraguay have created a total of 1.04 XG across the first three matches at the World Cup and they have had a total of five shots on target.

It is hard to imagine that being good enough against arguably the best team they will have faced in the tournament and one that has scored ten goals already.

Germany did score seven of those against Curacao, but two against Ivory Coast and one against Ecuador suggests they will have the quality needed to break down a Paraguay team that have kept two consecutive clean sheets. However, Turkiye created so many good chances against them that they could have matched the four goals the United States managed against Paraguay and the best approach to this Last 32 tie may be backing the Germans to win with a clean sheet at an appealing price.

Netherlands vs Morocco Pick: This looks to be one of the best ties in the Last 32 and there is going to be a lot of interest in this fixture, although the timing of the game could not be much worse for those back home in Netherlands and Morocco.

Both teams earned seven points in the Group Stage and impressed in different ways, but Netherlands topped their section and Morocco finished behind Brazil in their own.

There is going to be a real familiarity with one another, even if they have not played each other very recently, and it has been a tie that has opened up a discussion about identity- Morocco are the first nation to ever field a full starting eleven that have been born outside of the country when they lined up to play Brazil.

A number of the Morocco squad have come through the Dutch footballing system and it feels like this is going to develop into a tense, competitive fixture between two nations Ranked at Number 7 and Number 8 in the FIFA World Rankings (Morocco are just ahead of Netherlands).

With that in mind, would it really be a big surprise if this was the first of the 2026 World Cup matches that needed to go into Extra Time and perhaps Penalties?

Morocco have not been the most creative going forward, but they are very solid defensively and the approach is likely going to be one that looks to contain the Netherlands and hit them on the counter.

Ronald Koeman's team have scored at least twice in each World Cup match, but the fixture against Japan was notable for the lack of clear chances created- both teams produced strong finishing in the 2-2 draw, but Netherlands may struggle to create a lot against this Morocco defence that largely had Brazil at arm's distance in the Group Stage.

There is so much beyond the football field that will be motivating both sets of players and it may end up being a tense game with little between them- one goal could be enough to separate the teams either way, but it would not be a surprise if we end up with a 1-1 scoreline and the need for at least Extra Time and perhaps Penalties to be used to find out which of the teams is playing in the Last 16 on Saturday afternoon.

Tuesday 30th June

Ivory Coast vs Norway Pick: The format for the 2026 World Cup does mean there are a couple of ties in the Last 32 which involve teams that have finished Runners Up in the Group Stage.

One of those is Ivory Coast facing Norway after the teams finished behind Germany and Brazil respectively.

Both teams have impressed during the Group Stage with only defeats against the top teams in each section, but wins over the other two teams faced.

Norway should take particular encouragement from beating Senegal 3-2, but Ivory Coast's win and performance against Ecuador is one that should be given ample amount of respect too.

There is very little between these teams, but Norway do have the extra firepower in the final third that could make the difference. You would consider Ivory Coast the stronger defensive team considering some of the chances that Norway have allowed in this tournament, but the latter have Erling Haaland putting the finishing touches to some smart attacking play and that may give them the narrow edge when all is said and done.

However, Ivory Coast are more than dangerous enough to play their part and it could end up being a fixture that finishes up 2-1 either way, and backing goals certainly feels more comfortable than trying to pick a winner. The feeling is that Norway will do enough, but if they defend as they have in the Group Stage, this Ivory Coast team is more than good enough to hurt them the other way and the expectation is for a relatively attacking contest to develop, even in a Knock Out environment that can breed tension.

France vs Sweden Pick: They came into the tournament as one of the favourites and France finished top of their Group with maximum points and ten goals scored having put at least three past each of Senegal, Iraq and Norway.

However, despite that, you could argue that France have yet to put in a full ninety minute display and that is very worrying for those that look to stop them winning a second World Cup in three runnings of the tournament.

The attacking options available to the French looked impressive on paper and those players all look to be playing with the confidence that will make them very dangerous.

It is going to take some effort from Graham Potter's Sweden to prevent France from working their way through to the Last 16 and the 5-1 loss to Netherlands is hard to ignore. They were also struggling against Japan before Anthony Elanga's cross-shot provided an equaliser for Sweden, but this is a team that will have to defend so much better to contain the France attack.

Getting the ball into the likes of Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak will be difficult for Sweden and it looks like the European nation that got into the World Cup via the Play Offs are going to have the run ended and ended emphatically.

Sweden will feel they can cause some problems if they are able to counter with clear execution, while they will be looking to exploit any tension in the French camp with the burden of pressure on their shoulders, but it feels like the Swedes will need plenty of fortune to help them past this opponent.

Ultimately France are too good in that final third to believe Sweden can contain the threat for long enough and another comfortable win for one of the favourites is expected.

Mexico vs Ecuador Pick: Goals will change games and especially in the Knock Out Rounds of any tournament, but this one between Mexico and Ecuador looks like it will be very competitive and another that may need to move through Extra Time and Penalties to determine a winner.

Ecuador needed a late goal to turn things around against Germany and win the final Group match to move through as one of the best third place teams. They had arrived in North America as a 'dark horse', but the challenge for them now is building on finding a way to get through the Group having been beaten by Ivory Coast and then failing to score against Curacao in the opening two games in that section.

This is a team that have looked pretty composed defensively, but the long-term concern is that Ecuador have perhaps not found the right system in the attacking third.

Nothing has been wrong with the chances created at this tournament, but Ecuador have perhaps lacked some quality in those areas and now they have the challenge of playing an away game in the Knock Out Stages as they are forced to travel to Mexico City for the Last 32 tie.

It is where co-hosts and Group A Winners Mexico will be waiting for Ecuador and the challenge for the home team is proving that they are better than merely a team that took advantage of a weak Group.

Mexico beat South Africa, South Korea and Czechia without conceding a goal, but all of those teams are already on the way home.

The fans will certainly give Mexico a push, but the fixture against South Korea was pretty closely contested and these two nations played out a goalless draw when they met in the Copa America two years ago.

It is hard to imagine there will be much between them in this Last 32 tie and there is a real belief that one goal could be all it takes to provide the Last 16 nation.

Picking a winner looks very tough, but it would be a surprise if this is a goal-filled contest and backing the defences to be on top for the majority of the game is the pick.

Wednesday 1st July

England vs DR Congo Pick: Functional football has helped England through to the Knock Out Rounds of the World Cup, but Thomas Tuchel is under pressure to deliver more.

Injuries to the right back position has frustrated the media and the fans, who all felt this was an issue waiting to come up, but Tuchel will only be concentrating on trying to find a way to help England into what looks a massive test when facing Mexico in the Azteca in the Last 16.

It will be a fixture that is not going to be needed to be played if England are upset on Wednesday, but that looks unlikely.

DR Congo deserve credit for getting here, but they have not defended with a lot of authority against Colombia and Portugal and England should have far too much in the final third. The defenders will be well used to facing Yoane Wissa, who has impressed, while the attacking players will see this DR Congo defence as one that can be broken down.

Of course the same could have been said about Ghana, but DR Congo have not shown the same organisation as their fellow African nation and England should have the difference makers in the final third to eventually do enough to move through with another clean sheet.

Belgium vs Senegal Pick: Both of these teams need to improve significantly if they are going to have a deep run at the World Cup, but Belgium and Senegal have shown enough attacking football to believe they could play one of the more high-scoring fixtures of the Round.

Neither defence can expect to contain the other and both Belgium and Senegal have created some big chances in the Group Stage.

The key to the outcome in this one is the composure that the attackers are able to show, but Belgium might have turned a corner in the last fixture and Senegal also produced plenty in the attacking third to believe they can win this one.

Another European vs African nation ending a 2-1 scoreline would not surprise, although the lean is that Senegal may be ready for the upset.

United States vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Pick: This is not going to be an easy game for the United States, but the Bosnia-Herzegovina team have lacked a bit of quality at the World Cup.

That has been the case at both ends of the pitch and the co-hosts should have all of the qualities needed to make sure they move through to the Last 16 without too many issues.

It should be said that United States came through a weak Group, but Bosnia-Herzegovina were clearly second best against Canada and Switzerland in their own section and can be grateful that Qatar made up the section.

Bosnia-Herzegovina did earn a draw with one of the co-hosts, Canada, but they were second best on the day and the United States have looked a different level to the northern neighbours.

It also should be said that Bosnia-Herzegovina looked a little tired at times in the Group Stage, but they will be asked to work hard from the very outset of this one and USA can move through to the Last 16 behind another good looking win.

Thursday 2nd July

Spain vs Austria Pick: The two Finalists from the 2022 World Cup have both been making the big headlines in the 2026 tournament and that may actually suit Spain a little bit.

Luis de la Fuente guided Spain to the Euro 2024 success and this has been one of the top teams on the European continent over the last three years, but the World Cup has proven to be an unhappy hunting ground more often than not. They won in 2010 in South Africa, but performances in 2014, 2018 and 2022 have been disappointing and so it is perhaps a good thing that Spain have not peaked in the Group Stage, but are warming up to the task at hand.

The level quickly increases in the Knock Out Rounds and Spain are without Nico Williams, but they should still have too much for Austria in this Last 32 tie.

Austria only just made it through after scoring with seconds remaining against Algeria, and they were pretty well beaten by Argentina in the Group Stage. Ralf Rangnick likes his team to press from the front, but that may play into Spain's hands and the absence of Christoph Baumgartner has hurt Austria in the final third.

Breaking down Spain is one challenge, but Austria will have to defend a lot better than what has been shown in this tournament if they are going to contain this attack.

Spain have only scored five goals in the Group Stage, but they have created plenty of chances and the expectation is that this experienced squad will grow as the tournament progresses. There is a potentially awkward Last 16 tie coming up, but Spain cannot think too far ahead and the style of Austria may just allow them to remind everyone that they are the current European Champions and a big threat to win a second World Cup.

Portugal vs Croatia Pick: The favourites for this Last 32 tie are Portugal and that may be simply down to the fact that the starting eleven only has one player that looks like his best is a long way behind him, while Croatia are still relying on a few more.

Croatia finished second in the Group behind England, but have not really impressed and it is does feel like a major tournament too far for some of their top names.

They narrowly edged out Panama and Ghana in wins, but Croatia have to be a lot better when taking on another top European nations having been crushed 4-2 by England. They have not defended as well as they would have hoped and this Portugal team are very capable going forward, even if they are still searching for Cristiano Ronaldo for too long and far too often.

It has made Portugal a little predictable, but they should have the majority of the ball and the fresher midfield belongs to them.

Portugal are likely to dominate the shot count and Croatia may struggle to contain them, although the former are a team that have been used to making hard work of major tournament football in recent years. In the last European Championship, Portugal drew with both Slovenia and France in Knock Out ties that went all the way to Penalties and they are perhaps too short in this Last 32 tie, even if they ultimately prevail.

It would be a significant surprise if Croatia were to win this one game inside regular time, but the value here is with the draw and a fourth Knock Out tie in this Round that does need Extra Time to find a winner.

Switzerland vs Algeria Pick: After only barely getting themselves over the line to reach the Last 32 of the World Cup, there are plenty out there who will believe that Algeria's time in the tournament will soon be coming to an end.

However, Algeria have been much better since the 3-0 opening loss to Argentina when the tactics were wrong as they allowed the World Champions to build into the game.

More familiar tactics and team selections helped Algeria beat Jordan and then draw 3-3 with Austria and that kind of level will make them dangerous.

Of course it should be noted that Switzerland topped Group B ahead of co-hosts Canada and this is a team who have got some momentum behind them having beaten Bosnia-Herzegovina before that win over one of the hosts. That means the opening draw with Qatar is behind them, but both of these teams will be slightly concerned with the defensive performances in the tournament.

There has been little wrong with the attacking side of Switzerland and Algeria and that may mean the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals in this one.

Knock Out ties have a tendency to be more cautious, but that may be the case later in the tournament when teams are more closely matched up.

At this stage, both Switzerland and Algeria will fancy taking on the other and that could be reflected in the approach of the managers and the players and goals could follow.

Friday 3rd July

Australia vs Egypt Pick: Credit has to be given to Australia for getting out of the Group Stage, but Asian Qualifiers have disappointed in the 2026 World Cup and this is another one of those that may have reached the end of the line.

An upset over Turkiye set Australia on their way, but a functional team has struggled for goals and that is always going to be a problem.

Egypt have won a first World Cup match at this tournament and have reached the Knock Out Rounds for the first time after finishing behind Belgium in the Group.

There is talent in the forward areas that gives Egypt the edge in this Last 32 tie and they look most likely to move through to the Last 16 and can be backed to do that.

Argentina vs Cape Verde Pick: Nothing will ever erase the memories that Cape Verde have created at the 2026 World Cup and the fact is that these players will never forget having faced the European Champions and World Champions in the same tournament.

They held Spain, but Cape Verde have had to ride their luck against the Spanish and Uruguay and you have to believe that fortune will run out against Argentina.

The underdog will give it a go, but Argentina's qualities and experience should guide them through without too much drama. Lionel Messi has been making all of the headlines, but Lautaro Martinez has been plenty involved for Argentina and backing the striker to 'score or assist' in an Argentina win looks a decent price.

Even if he is replaced, the likelihood is that Julian Alvarez will come in for Martinez and this 'sub play on' option gives the selection every time of coming out on top.

Colombia vs Ghana Pick: The team managed by Carlos Queiroz have shown plenty of resilience in this tournament and Ghana can make things difficult for Colombia, even if the latter are going to have the majority of the ball.

DR Congo did their best to keep Colombia at bay, but Ghana may feel they are a bit more organised than their African rivals and that can help.

However, Colombia's attacking qualities cannot be ignored and they will put Ghana under pressure throughout this one- the team will take shots from all angles and that makes it tougher for defenders to reset and get into blocking positions.

In the win over DR Congo, Colombia had 9 shots on target and they can put up at least 6 here against a Ghana team that will be looking to hit them on the break. Ghana have been pretty solid, but they will allow shots to be taken against them, but from range, and it may allow Colombia to fill up the stat sheet in this one.

MY PICKS: Canada @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)

Brazil-Japan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Germany Win to Nil @ 2.25 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Netherlands-Morocco Draw @ 3.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Ivory Coast-Norway Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

France - 1 English Handicap @ 1.75 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mexico-Ecuador Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.40 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

England Win to Nil @ 1.80 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Belgium-Senegal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

United States - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Spain - 1 English Handicap @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Portugal-Croatia Draw @ 3.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Switzerland-Algeria Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Egypt to Qualify @ 1.61 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Argentina to Win & Lautaro Martinez to Score or Assist @ 1.66 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Colombia Over 5.5 Shots on Target @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Last 32: 10-6, + 4.38 Units (16 Units Staked, + 27.38% Yield)

Group Stage MD 3: 11-11-1, - 1.29 Units (23 Units Staked, - 5.61% Yield)

Group Stage MD 2: 16-8, + 7.44 Units (24 Units Staked, + 31% Yield)

Group Stage MD 1: 12-12, - 0.30 Units (24 Units Staked, - 1.25% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 20-22)

I have not really ever been a fan of the way the Last 16 of the Champions League is played over four weeks, but I guess it does allow for fans to see more of the Second Round ties.

It might have something to do with waiting until last for Manchester United to get their Second Round First Leg underway- patience is a virtue, but not when you just want to get the Champions League going again after waiting two months.

The English clubs all had a good first week back in European action with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured a place in the next Round after recording thumping away wins. Tottenham Hotspur are also the favourites to see off Juventus after coming from 2-0 down in Turin, but now the attention turns to Chelsea and Manchester United.

Both teams face difficult challenges from Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and these two are involved in the stand out ties of the week in the Champions League.

On Thursday the attention will turn to the completion of the Europa League Last 32 Round with the draw for the Last 16 made on Friday.

Monday night proved to be of huge significance in England as Wigan Athletic shocked Manchester City by beating them in the FA Cup yet again. That's the third time in six seasons The Latics have beaten Manchester City in this Cup and it ended all talk of the Quadruple for the latter.

It just goes to show how big an achievement it was for the Manchester United 1998/99 team to go on and win 'The Treble' (I mean the real Treble too) and Manchester City are under some pressure now to add to the Premier League that they have had in control for a couple of months.

This weekend they face Arsenal in the League Cup Final and another defeat in a domestic Cup competition can't be contemplated by the fans.

I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the decisions Jose Mourinho has to make to get the best out of his top players. That can be read here and was written in the days after the 1-0 loss to Newcastle United.

Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.


Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.

The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.

The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.

Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.

However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.

Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.

I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.


Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.

Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.

There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.

No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.

Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.

Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.

Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.

Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.

Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.

Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.


Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.

The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.

Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.

That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.

Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.

However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.

Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.

Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.

It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.

They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.

Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.

If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.

Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.

The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.

They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.

AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.

It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.


Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.

It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.

However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.

This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.

It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.


Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.

Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.

It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.

Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.

All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.

With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.

Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.

I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.

The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.

However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.

I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.

I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.


Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.

The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.

That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.

We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.

Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.

Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.


Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.

It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.

What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.

Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.

My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.

There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 13-15)

The Champions League and Europa League Knock Out Rounds begin this week and that means the excitement level for the fans begins to raise.

Many of the fans of the English clubs have to feel confident of their chances to go deep in both competitions especially as the Europa League has taken on a new importance for Arsenal now they are looking off the pace of the top four in the Premier League.

The five English clubs in the Champions League will all feel they have winnable ties, although the most vulnerable looks to be Chelsea when they face Barcelona having hit a poor patch of form at just the wrong time.


Before the Weekend Football Picks post I will have my latest 'United Corner' focusing on recent poor performances and a lack of direction that Manchester United have seemingly had when going forward. That should be posted by Thursday ahead of three huge games for United to end February.


Basel v Manchester City Pick: The Champions League Second Round has put together some very interesting ties, but this is perhaps one of the least appealing ones.

Much of that is down to the fact that it feels like a mismatch and I think it would be a big surprise if Manchester City are not able to beat Basel over two Legs.

The First Leg has a few more question marks attached with Basel hosting the game and Manchester City just not looking at their dominant best away from home in recent Premier League games. However Basel's own form has not been that convincing and some changes in the January transfer window will take time to blend in with the rest of the squad.

Basel have speed which can be a big factor against Manchester City on the counter attack, but containing this City attack is a big ask.

Some are taking confidence from the 1-0 win over Manchester United here in the Group Stage, but Manchester United created many chances in that fixture. Unlike United, Manchester City are playing with a lot more confidence in the final third and have a striker in Sergio Aguero who is in stunning form in front of goal.

Manchester City scored four times in wins over Feyenoord and Napoli in the Group Stage and I think a strong team will begin here and put Pep Guardiola's team in a position where they will feel they have more than one foot into the Quarter Final. While Basel can cause some problems, I think they are going to really have problems keeping Manchester City out at the other end and I am expecting the Premier League leaders to win by a healthy margin on Tuesday.

There is a pressure that comes with Knock Out football, but this is a Manchester City team with experience of playing in these Rounds even if they have not been as successful as they would have liked in recent years. However confidence is high in the Manchester City camp and I think they win by a couple of goals, at least, on the night.


Juventus v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is one of the better looking Second Round ties in the Champions League and I would be surprised if there isn't everything to play for when Juventus and Tottenham Hotspur meet at Wembley Stadium in the Second Leg next month.

The First Leg has the makings of a tight contest with Juventus in stunning form, while Tottenham Hotspur have beaten both Manchester United and Arsenal and drawn with Liverpool in their last 3 Premier League games. Those results will have given Tottenham Hotspur a big shot of confidence as they head into more big games and it perhaps has raised some questions as to the outcome of this match.

One of the big criticisms of Tottenham Hotspur have been performances in big games, but those results coupled with the 1-1 draw in Real Madrid and 1-2 win in Borussia Dortmund shows what they are capable of. They did have to ride their luck a little bit in Madrid though and Tottenham Hotspur have tended to be a little more vulnerable on their travels against the top teams.

While they deserved their draw at Anfield ten days ago, Tottenham Hotspur have lost pretty comfortably at Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City in the Premier League.

I do think they will have to ride out some rough patches to earn a positive result here especially with the way Juventus have been playing.

8 consecutive clean sheets at home in all competitions and 11 straight wins in all competitions overall means Juventus are coming in with plenty of form of their own. Serie A is the priority for the club and Juventus are in a real battle back home against Napoli, but this is a team who have plenty of momentum behind them and I think that is going to lead to a narrow lead from the First Leg.

Odds against quotes for a Juventus win look too big as far as I am concerned especially when you think of how Tottenham Hotspur have tended to play away from home in 'big' games. I do think Spurs can be tough to break down defensively which will give them a chance in this First Leg, and the likes of Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane will pose a threat to Juventus too.

However home advantage should be a key difference maker in this match and I do like Juventus to come out with a narrow advantage. It is a bigger price than I anticipated for the Juventus win and I think they are worth backing at odds against to come out with the lead.


Porto v Liverpool Pick: You have to feel this First Leg is vital for Porto if they have real ambitions of beating Liverpool in the Champions League Second Round. This has notoriously been a difficult ground for teams from England to visit and Porto have to believe they need a lead to take to Anfield next month in the Second Leg.

Confidence shouldn't be a problem for Porto who have a long unbeaten record to protect and who have won their last 8 home games in all competitions. They have won 4 of their last 6 at home in the Champions League too, although some will question the standard of the teams they have faced compared with the Liverpool one they will play this week.

There is much to admire about the approach Liverpool have, but defensively they remain a team who can be very vulnerable. That is what Porto have to look to exploit, although finding the balance between attack and defence is going to be the challenge they face on Wednesday.

Juventus, Besiktas and Monaco have all scored at least twice as 3 of the last 4 teams to visit Porto in the Champions League. That will encourage Liverpool to go in search of one or two away goals which could prove highly valuable in the context of the tie, and they are a team who have been scoring a fair few goals in recent away games.

Liverpool also scored at least twice in 3 of their 4 away Champions League games so far this season and I have to say I am expecting to see goals in this fixture.

With the onus on Porto to attack, I think there could be spaces to exploit for both teams who will want to get forward. That could see opportunities at both ends and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out when the teams play in the First Leg.

All 3 Porto home Champions League games featured at least three goals and 3 of 4 Liverpool away Champions League games have done the same. I don't think Liverpool will stray from their philosophy which should mean an attacking game develops and backing at least three goals looks the most likely outcome.


Real Madrid v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This has to be considered the tie of the Second Round of the Champions League by some distance with both Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain the leading favourites to win the Champions League alongside Barcelona, Manchester City and Bayern Munich.

Only one of these teams can progress to the Quarter Final though and I think there are big repercussions in play for the losing team to add to the pressure of the occasion.

Neither club is going to be satisfied by a Second Round exit and I think there will be sweeping changes at Real Madrid and huge coaching changes at Paris Saint-Germain in the months ahead if their team is beaten in this tie.

That will be on the minds of the management staff, but you have to think the players are keen to show off the array of talent that will take to the field. Both Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain look like huge threats when going forward with confidence, but defensively there is room for improvement and there is every chance they gel together to produce two memorable fixtures much like Barcelona and PSG did twelve months ago.

It is hard to believe this tie will come close to the drama that was provided, but goals were not in short supply in that tie and I expect this one to follow suit.

Both teams look very comfortable with the ball and the attacking players on show should be able to create some big openings for some of the best footballers in the world. It is hard to see those chances not being converted into goals and I think it is no surprise the layers are offering pretty short odds for four or more goals.

However I think there is every chance of that number being reached even if their two matches in the 2015/16 Group Stage produced a grand total of one goal. The last 5 Paris Saint-Germain away games in the Champions League have produced four or more goals, while Real Madrid have looked very vulnerable defensively and dangerous going forward in recent games.

Some times these fixtures can disappoint, but I am not sure Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain know another way to play except getting forward and scoring goals. I will look for that to mould into a top class Champions League game, at least from an attacking point of view, and at least four goals to be scored on Wednesday in the First Leg.


Ludogorets v Milan Pick: Most will be expecting Milan to get past Ludogorets over the two Legs of this Last 32 Europa League tie to be played in the next eight days. However this First Leg looks a tougher fixture than the layers believe as Milan are going in as strong favourites to secure a lead in Bulgaria.

That could be down to the fact that Ludogorets have not played a competitive fixture since December while Milan are on an 8 game unbeaten run. There are definite signs that Milan are feeling more confident than they have been in weeks, but Ludogorets have been a tough test for teams visiting Bulgaria and will know how important the First Leg is to them.

Ludogorets have shown they can play some decent attacking football at times and I think they are going to challenge Milan at times. They have been involved in some high scoring games at home in European competition this season as Ludogorets have looked to get forward which has ultimately left them exposed defensively too.

They have played 6 home European games this season and both teams have scored in 5 of those and Ludogorets have to know their best chance of the upset will come if they can earn a First Leg lead. Milan's away games in Europe have tended to trend the opposite way with tight games produced, but they could be forced into a more entertaining game by the approach of their hosts.

The 1-1 scoreline could be the biggest blow to this pick, but I think both Ludogorets and Milan will have their chances to combine for at least three goals at odds against in this First Leg.


Nice v Lokomotiv Moscow Pick: There are a few fixtures in the Champions League and Europa League over this period where some of the teams involved are resuming competitive action after Winter Breaks domestically.

That can make it tougher to get a read on how they are going to perform with fitness perhaps a concern when facing a team who have been playing plenty of competitive football.

That is the case when Nice host Lokomotiv Moscow on Thursday in the First Leg in France and I think that has contributed to the home team being an odds on favourite to win this fixture. However Nice have not been in great form and that makes it much harder to trust them to win this game.

Nice have been better at home though and have won 6 of their last 9 in front of their own fans, while also winning 2 of 5 European games here this season. That makes them dangerous, but Lokomotiv Moscow are also a tough team having lost just 1 of their last 8 away Europa League ties.

The defeat did come last season in the Last 32 of the Europa League though and I think Nice may have enough to secure a narrow advantage from the First Leg. I will keep my interest in this game to a minimum though with Nice not exactly firing on all cylinders, but I think they have played well enough at home to secure a First Leg lead against an opponent that perhaps may run out of energy in the second half off the long Winter Break.

I don't think it will be a decisive lead with the Second Leg in the Russian capital to come, but I will take a small interest in Nice having a lead from the First Leg.


Ostersund v Arsenal Pick: On paper this looks to be a tie that should be dominated by Arsenal and the layers are anticipating the same with the English side short odds to win the First Leg in Sweden.

I don't think Ostersund will be too concerned about being the underdog having spent the entire Europa League campaign surprising teams who should have beaten them on paper. The likes of Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin have all lost to Graham Potter's team in Sweden, while Athletic Bilbao needed an 89th minute goal to earn a 2-2 draw here.

The long lay off since December is a concern for Ostersund against a Premier League club like Arsenal but I do think they can pose problems for a team who have been travelling poorly of late.

A much changed Arsenal team have won at BATE Borisov and Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League, and I am second guessing Arsene Wenger by suggesting a strong team could be played in this First Leg.

That makes Arsenal more dangerous with the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Jack Wilshere and Mesut Ozil supporting Danny Welbeck. It should be something Wenger considers with the Europa League increasing in importance in each passing Premier League week, and the fact that Arsenal are not playing this weekend means the players will have plenty of time to recharge the batteries following this fixture.

A strong team will cause Ostersund problems like Athletic Bilbao did, but Arsenal still look vulnerable defensively and I think the home team will cause problems of their own.

I was tempted to pick Ostersund with the start on the Asian Handicap considering how well they played at home against teams in the Europa League. However the attacking qualities of Arsenal makes it hard to oppose them in this kind of fixture.

It does make me want to back at least three goals to be shared out though because all of the attacking quality of Arsenal is almost matched by the defensive vulnerabilities. I won't be surprised if both teams score in this one and I am expecting an attacking display from both clubs with the expected teams they are going to pick.


Celtic v Zenit St Petersburg Pick: Both Celtic and Zenit St Petersburg will feel this is the kind of opponent they would have potentially met in the Champions League and that should mean both Brendan Rodgers and Roberto Mancini will be reminding their players of the size of the task in front of them.

It is Zenit St Petersburg who will come into this Europa League Last 32 tie as the favourites to go on and progress to the next Round, especially if they can head away from Glasgow with an away goal or two behind them.

Zenit St Petersburg have scored plenty of goals in the Europa League this season which will make them a real danger to a Celtic team who have not made Glasgow as much of a fortress in Europe as they would have liked. Celtic have lost 5 of their last 8 home European ties including all 3 in the Champions League Group Stage this season.

That means the pressure is on Celtic to find the right balance to earn a lead that they will be able to defend in St Petersburg. Injuries may make it more difficult for Celtic, but Rodgers will ask his team to play one way and that is to attack their visitors and try and force their way into a lead.

Attacking football like the way Rodgers wants his team to approach things does make Celtic a little more vulnerable defensively and teams have been able to come to Celtic Park and score goals. This Zenit St Petersburg team will believe they can do the same and these two teams could combine for three or more goals ahead of the Second Leg in St Petersburg next week.

Goals have flown in recent Celtic home European games and I think both teams will have chances in this one. There may even be the potential for late goals if Celtic are chasing or if Zenit St Petersburg get a little tired coming out of the Winter Break and I will look for three or more goals to be shared out in this one.


Lyon v Villarreal Pick: One of the best looking Last 32 ties in the Europa League is played between Lyon and Villarreal, two clubs who have had success in the Champions League in recent memory.

However both have become a little more accustomed to the Europa League and will be looking for a strong run in the competition as perhaps a strong path back into the Champions League. Both have reached the Semi Final in the last couple of years with Villarreal doing that in 2016 and Lyon last season, while the latter have the added motivation of knowing the Final will be played in their home Stadium in May.

I am finding it tough to separate these teams with both Lyon and Villarreal showing what they are capable of with recent League wins over Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain respectively. However both teams have come off the boil and come in with losing trends in recent games which makes it tougher to work out the outcome of the tie.

However I do think home advantage is key for Lyon in the First Leg and I think they can use that to have a lead to defend in Spain. Villarreal have been strong away from home in the Europa League since their Semi Final loss to Liverpool in April 2016, but Lyon have won 6 of 7 home Europa League ties over the last twelve months which has to give them confidence.

It will be tight and I do think both teams will have everything to play for in the Second Leg in seven days time, but I am going to back Lyon to have the lead by winning this First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juventus @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Porto-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Real Madrid-Paris Saint-Germain Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Ludogorets-Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Ostersund-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Celtic-Zenit St Petersburg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lyon @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)