Boxing Picks 2026- Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia (Saturday 21st February)

You never want to make a lot of assumptions, but there is clearly a feeling amongst those who follow Boxing that something has changed for the United Kingdom Promoters who had been in lockstep with Riyadh Season over the last couple of years.

That has meant a lot of the big fights have ended up in Saudi Arabia, but Turki Alalshikh has joined forces with Dana White and TKO to produce a new 'Boxing League' and that has perhaps meant less interest in partnering up with the likes of Frank Warren and Eddie Hearn.

The latter of those Promoters is still having some work together with the Saudis, but there seems to have been a real breakdown between Turki Alalshikh and Frank Warren.

Of course nothing has been said, but it is interesting that the WBO World Heavyweight Title will be defending in Manchester, while Callum Smith vs David Morrell heads up a card in Liverpool.

That fight and Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois are the kind of bouts that have not really been seen over in the United Kingdom over the last eighteen months and rumour will continue to swirl that all is not well between the big parties involved.

Ultimately it matters little to fans of the sport as long as the big fights are being made and there are several big cards taking place between April and May.

Before all that, we have a big fight taking place in Las Vegas this weekend when the WBC World Welterweight Title is on the line- the Division is still looking for a dominant force to come through and take over from the likes of Terence Crawford and Jaron Ennis who had been the leading names in the 147 pound Division.

And while the headliner in Nottingham is between two fighters who are perhaps past their best and the days when they won World Titles, fans have to be really excited about seeing Leigh Wood vs Josh Warrington for the second time.

Two weeks ago, Britain lost a World Champion when Nick Ball was Stopped in the final Round by Brandon Figueroa and it was a missed opportunity for the Boxing Picks.

My feeling was that Figueroa might not have gotten a fair crack if the fight went to the cards, but he was someone that I wrote I would have backed in any neutral setting.

The last twelve months have been a little like that when not quite having the full conviction to follow through with a Pick and being disappointed at missing out.

2026 is still a long year and there are plenty of opportunities in front so you cannot be thinking backwards and instead have to stick to the plan and look for that to reap its own rewards.

Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia

There is a huge amount of controversy around Ryan Garcia- he has been Stopped by Gervonta Davis and the win over Devin Haney is massively tainted after Garcia failed a drugs test.

The last time we saw Ryan Garcia he was being dropped in the Second Round and putting in a listless performance in losing to Rolly Romero.

Of course that has been seen as good enough for the WBC to allow their Champion to fight Ryan Garcia having kept the latter in the top four of the Rankings(!)

The Welterweight Division is lacking real star power, although Devin Haney is now holding the WBO World Title and there is a natural rivalry with Garcia that can be explored further if the 27 year old is able to win the WBC World Title.

It is hard to know what to expect from Ryan Garcia who has won one of the last four fights if you consider the Devin Haney bout a No Contest.

He does feel like a fighter who has a big reputation without actually having proved he deserves that in the ring and Ryan Garcia is going to have a tough day in the office if he is not fully prepared.

However, it has long been stated that Mario Barrios may be one of the weakest World Champions in ANY Division and he has only managed to earn two Draws since being upgraded from Interim to full World Champion.

To say his run has been underwhelming would be an understatement and the last time anyone saw Mario Barrios, he had just drawn with Manny Pacquiao who had not fought in four years.

Prior to that, Mario Barrios had been given another Draw with Abel Ramos in a controversial Decision and that was against an opponent who had lost three of the previous five bouts.

So many people have thought about targeting Barrios for an 'easy' World Title bid, but he has managed to retain the support of the WBC and this will be just the third defence of this Title since October 2024.

Both fighters have come up short when they have stepped up their level and that makes the World Title clash tougher to call, but you have to feel that Ryan Garcia has the higher ceiling. He cannot afford to think he can coast to a win though and will have to put together a lot more intensity than he showed in the loss to Romero last year, while inactivity has been a real issue for both (at least Ryan Garcia had an 'excuse' of being given a ban after his failed test following the Devin Haney clash).

The winning fighter may be presented with a few opportunities, but you have to imagine most at the top of the sport would prefer that to be Ryan Garcia.

He does have the faster hands and the flashier combinations, while Mario Barrios will want to dig in and make this a rough fight.

Ryan Garcia does carry some power though and that may end up being the difference in the Championship Rounds of this World Title fight, although he needs to put together a really strong effort to impress and erase the memories of some of those recent outings.

There will be some expectation on Ryan Garcia to make a statement and perhaps push through the gears and Stop Mario Barrios, but he may have to settle in becoming World Champion thanks to the Judges.

This is a card being headed up by Riyadh Season and The Ring Magazine, which means there is a healthy looking undercard that has been put together.

Young prospect Amari Jones can continue his move up towards the top of the Middleweight Division, which could soon have a number of vacant World Titles available if Janibek Alimkhanuly is banned after failing a drugs test.

He is facing a veteran in Luis Arias who has only been Stopped once before.

However, Arias has become a fighter used to give prospects Rounds and has lost two in a row against unbeaten opponents, but taking both to the cards.

His best days are behind him and Amari Jones has shown a bit more spite than most as he has moved up the Rankings and he can become the second fighter to force a Stoppage against Luis Arias after Erickson Lubin managed that in 2023.

We should also see Bektemir Melikuziev continue his winning run as he takes a step back in level of opponent in the wide open Super Middleweight Division.

Recent outings have not been the most impressive, but Bully is facing an opponent who has been out of the ring for fifteen months and who had been Stopped very early in back to back fights before a blowout in his most recent outing.

Sena Agbeko has not been able to handle the early power and that may be the case again in this bout.

One of the intriguing undercard bouts features a returning Frank Martin who is back out just two months after ending a year long layoff.

He is now operating at the Light-Welterweight level, but he looks a very short favourite against Nahir Albright.

The underdog was only beaten by Keyshawn Davis in a Majority Decision in the Lightweight Division, but upset his brother Kelvin Davis last June. That victory was marred by a backstage scrap with the other Davis brothers, but Nahir Albright has shown he is a tough out and his style could make things very tough for The Ghost.

On paper the Gary Antuanne Russell World Title defence against Andy Hiraoka looks like an appetising support for the main event.

Combined they have suffered just one defeat between them, while thirty-seven of the forty-two combined wins have been in Stoppages.

It most definitely feels like the Champion has been in with the higher calibre of opponent, while there has to be some serious doubts about Andy Hiraoka's decision to arrive in the United States just a couple of days before the fight is due to take place.

At one point it sounded like he would not be given a Visa to travel, but the late arrival is not going to be ideal in what could develop into a really good fight.

You would not describe Gary Antuanne Russell as the most active fighter out there, but he may just outlast the Challenger and he can force the Stoppage after an entertaining battle.

Another who may earn a Stoppage in defence of his World Title is Richardson Hitchins who will be defending the IBF Light-Welterweight Title for the second time.

His Promotional team have asked Hitchins to move through the gears and impress fans by putting his shots together and the Stoppage of George Kambosos Jr in his first defence has given the Champion a real boost.

There is a dangerous opponent in front of him as Oscar Duarte Jurado is unbeaten in four fights since losing to Ryan Garcia to earn this shot.

The Mexican earned a couple of wins in 2025 to earn this opportunity, but it does feel like this is a step up compared with recent opponents and the toughest fight since he was beaten by Ryan Garcia.

In the main Richardson Hitchins has been happy to rack up the points and use the cards to remain unbeaten, but the performance against Kambosos Jr showed a bit more.

An open Division is going to be calling for Unifications soon and Hitchins will want to remind the fans of his own quality by matching the Stoppage earned by Ryan Garcia against this opponent.

Leigh Wood vs Josh Warrington II

There is no love lost between these fighters, but there is also a healthy respect having shared the ring once before.

October 2023 was the first time Leigh Wood and Josh Warrington faced off and it was not the first time that Wood had seemingly been losing a fight before turning it around by displaying his huge punching power.

Josh Warrington has seemingly been haunted by the defeat and felt the referee had let him down by Stopping things right at the end of Round Seven instead of allowing him to have that minute between Rounds.

In fairness Warrington looked done in the fight having dominated, but then caught by some huge shots from the gloves of Leigh Wood.

He is the underdog in this fight back in Nottingham, although not at the City Ground as Leigh Wood would have liked, and both fighters know that this could be a career-ender for the loser.

The defeat to Wood was the second of a three fight losing run for Josh Warrington, which culminated in a defeat on the cards by Anthony Cacace- that took place in September 2024 and Warrington left his gear in the ring to suggest he was calling time on his career before surprisingly returning in 2025 and shaking off the ring rust in a Ten Round Decision win.

Leigh Wood has only had one fight since the win over Warrington and that was also a defeat to Antony Cacace, although this time it was in a Ninth Round Stoppage in May last year.

There is no doubt that both have moved past their primes, but that should mean we are in for another barnstormer with some of the punch resistance gone and the two at a similar stage in their careers.

Plenty of leather was thrown in the original bout and that ended in the Seventh Round.

The pattern is likely to be the same when Leigh Wood and Josh Warrington meet again and it would be a surprise if this one goes the distance.

It will either be Josh Warrington wearing out Leigh Wood or the latter finding another combination of big punches, but the wear and tear on both fighters at 35 and 37 years old respectively should be shown up in the ring on Saturday.

Ultimately the fans should be getting their money's worth when these two face off with neither looking like they will settle for taking a backwards step.

The chief support sees the British Light Middleweight Title on the line.

Ishmael Davis won the that Title and the Commonwealth Light Middleweight Title in a close victory over Sam Gilley in November and he has won two fights in a row having suffered three straight defeats.

Those came in contests when Davis was willing to step in on short notice, but he impressed enough to be given more opportunities and he is the favourite.

However, Bilal Fawaz has to be respected having beaten a highly touted prospect in Junaid Boston- he had to fight the youngster twice after a controversial Draw the first time around, but Fawaz deserved the Decision in the rematch and he has been signed by Matchroom, which underlines the potential they still see in a 37 year old who has been held back in his career as his immigration status has been fought out in the courts.

In another life Fawaz would have competed for Great Britain in the Olympic Games and there is some momentum in his career right now and an opportunity you feel he can grasp.

This is a tough step up and Ishmael Davis has overcome plenty of disadvantages in his own life, while also operating against a higher level of opponent.

Beating Troy Williamson is impressive and Davis certainly gave Josh Kelly and Caoimhin Agyarko real tests, which also look more impressive especially after Kelly has moved on to become a World Champion.

Both are tough, grizzled and with everything to gain and so it does feel like the Judges will be needed.

Bilal Fawaz is hugely motivated, but Ishmael Davis has shown he can do enough to win fights against this kind of level of opponent and it makes for fascinating viewing.

The undercard is littered with a number of one-sided women fights with the A side names all expected to come out on top.

There is still a real lack of depth in the women's side of the sport, which means Sandy Ryan is able to fight for a World Title just one fight removed from back to back defeats. She should be able to get a Belt back around her waist and both Molly McCann and Tiah Mai Ayton are also expected to continue their development towards the top of the Rankings with wins.

One fighter who is expected to impress is Dave Allen who returns and is expected to make short work of Karim Berredjem.

The latter is experienced and only been Stopped in three of his ten defeats, but those have come in the Fourth, Third and First Round and Allen should be able to come in and just get back to winning ways pretty quickly.

MY PICKS: Ryan Garcia to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Amari Jones to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.61 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Bektemir Melikuziev to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Gary Antuanne Russell to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.75 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Richardson Hitchens to Win Between 7-12 @ 10.50 William Hill (1 Unit)

Leigh Wood-Josh Warrington Fight to Go Distance- No @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

David Allen to Win Between 1-3 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2026: 2-7, - 6.66 Units (16 Units Staked, - 41.63% Yield)

European Tour 1- Poland Darts Open Day 2 Picks 2026 (Saturday 21st February)

The first European Tour event of the 2026 began with an excited crowd on Friday as the First Round in Poland was completed, but the atmosphere should be even better on Saturday when some of the very best players on the Tour join the party.

Some quality matches have been set out ahead of the final day and the opening selections returned a slight profit.

Backing that up is the key across the two sessions set for Saturday with eight Second Round matches in the best of eleven format to be completed in both.

Nathan Aspinall to win & most 180s v Darryl Pilgrim: The early performances at the Players Championship have been solid enough for Nathan Aspinall, but he would have wanted at least one deeper run this past week.

He remains one of the big maximum hitters on the Tour and Nathan Aspinall is looking to put together a year that does earn him a return to the Premier League.

The likelihood is that the scoring power is going to be key for Aspinall against Darryl Pilgrim who upset Dave Chisnall, as well as one of the selections made on these pages on Friday.

However, that was not exactly a strong performance from Pilgrim and he is going to have to find a higher level, while also unlikely to be afforded as many chances as Chisnall allowed him to have in the First Round.

You have to expect Nathan Aspinall to have the majority of maximums in the match and that should set him up for a place in the Third Round.

Wessel Nijman v Gary Anderson: It has been made clear over the first seven weeks of the 2026 season that Gary Anderson is one of the favoured players, but he may struggle to contain Wessel Nijman.

Big hitting gives Anderson a chance to win any match he plays, but a couple of Third Round losses at the opening two Players Championship tournaments have continued an inconsistent start to the season.

He is well rested having skipped the two Players Championship tournaments played earlier this week, but that may leave Gary Anderson a little short against an extremely confident player.

Wessel Nijman was far from at his best in the First Round win here in Poland, but he has been putting together plenty of wins on the floor.

The numbers are impressive and it is Nijman who can be backed just ahead of Connor Scutt and Daryl Gurney as the strongest looking underdog to be able to make it through to the next day.

Jonny Clayton to win & over 2.5 180s v Adam Gawlas: The underdog came through the First Round with a solid win, but this is a step up in level if Jonny Clayton gets near to the form he has been producing in the Premier League.

The Night 3 Winner has admitted how much he enjoys playing in that Premier League tournament, but he is also keen to impress on the European Tour.

Jonny Clayton is finishing well enough and has been producing some very high scoring and that may give him the edge in this one.

The World Number 5 has not played Adam Gawlas in a few years, but he will have noted the maximum hitting that the latter produced on Friday. Jonny Clayton will have to match that in any winning effort, but he has been pounding the treble 20 bed with real regularity and can hit at least three on his way through to the Third Round.

Joe Cullen v Michael Smith: The withdrawal of Gerwyn Price allowed Michael Smith to not only travel to Krakow, but to take the Welshman's place in the Second Round.

Bully Boy lost a Qualifier to Micky Mansell that really upset him earlier this month, but he has earned six wins this week that has earned Smith places in European Tour 3 and 4 events to be played.

Those will have given him confidence, but Michael Smith has to be aware that Joe Cullen looks to be rounding into real form after some underwhelming months on the Tour.

A strong First Round win has to have given Cullen a boost, while he has also gotten the better of Michael Smith in a Players Championship meeting.

Both played well on that day, but the money has been coming in on Joe Cullen who has now become the favourite, which looks about right.

Luke Humphries to win & over 2.5 180s v Krzysztof Ratajski: The fans are going to be loud and boisterous for this Second Round match as the home favourite takes on the World Number 2.

However, Krzysztof Ratajski is going to need Luke Humphries to have an off day if he is going to earn the upset.

The Polish Number 1 has lost the last seven matches against Luke Humphries and has struggled to match the scoring power that the latter can produce. That has led to some one-sided wins for Humphries, including two last year on the Tour, and the challenge is all the greater for Ratajski when you consider how well Luke Humphries has been playing of late.

His results have not reflected that in the Premier League, but only three dates have been played, while Luke Humphries won a Players Championship earlier this week.

The scoring has been there and Luke Humphries should have too much for Krzysztof Ratajski even if the home crowd can inspire the underdog to push this one closer than some of the recent matches against the World Number 2 have played out.

MY PICKS: Nathan Aspinall to Win & Most 180s @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wessel Nijman @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jonny Clayton to Win & Over 2.5 180s @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Joe Cullen @ 1.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Luke Humphries to Win & Over 2.5 180s @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Poland Open: 3-2, + 0.77 Units (5 Units Staked, + 15.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 21st February)

It was a mixed bag of results on Thursday as we move into the final three days of the tournaments that have been playing this week.

The WTA Dubai and ATP Doha events are set to be concluded on Saturday, which means it is Semi Final day on Friday, while the ATP Rio tournament has reached the Quarter Final Round.

Any selections from Rio will be added to this thread, but the focus is once again on the tournament in Doha with both WTA Semi Finals quite difficult to call. The odds reflect that with those two matches featuring a couple of pick 'em contests, while there isn't much separating the players in the ATP Doha Semi Finals, but the angles to approach those matches feel more comfortable.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Andrey Rublev over 23.5 games: The run through to the Semi Final of an ATP 500 event could not have been much more comfortable for Felix Auger-Aliassime and he may still be figuring out the conditions in Doha.

He had to battle through the First Round, but received a walkover in the Second Round before Felix Auger-Aliassime benefited from facing an ill Daniil Medvedev, who had to retire at the end of the first set played.

The Ranking points will be appreciated, but the form is hard to factor even if Felix Auger-Aliassime was serving well before Medvedev called time on the match prematurely in the Quarter Final.

This is going to be another tough challenge for the Canadian when going up against Andrey Rublev, who upset Alex De Minaur in the Quarter Final and who looks to be rounding into some better form. The World Number 10 has been returning with a bit more confidence and authority, although that will be tested by a big Felix Auger-Aliassime serve, and Andrey Rublev has maintained his level behind the serve.

There will be plenty of 'blink and you miss it' kind of rallies in this match with both likely going to get on the front foot behind the first serve with some big groundstrokes to rip past the opponent.

Matches between the pair have largely ended in favour of Andrey Rublev, who has won five of the six previous meetings, but they have been competitive and there is every reason to believe this one will be too.

Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime last met on the hard courts twelve months ago in Rotterdam and it was the former who rallied from a set down to get past the Canadian in the Second Round.

In their previous matches on the hard courts, Felix Auger-Aliassime has held 88% of his service games and Andrey Rublev has managed to do the same in 87% of his own service games. All but one of their previous six matches have gone the distance and you have to feel the two players can put the serving together to help surpass this total games line set in what should be a close, competitive match.

Felix Auger-Aliassime's level in Doha is more difficult to judge this week, but Andrey Rublev has been serving well to see both push through the games and there is every chance that even a straight sets win for either player would still see this total games mark covered.

Jack Draper - 1.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: It was the last match on court and Jack Draper had to battle and dig to recover from a set down and get the better of Matteo Berrettini to move through to the Semi Final.

Spending over two hours on the court is not ideal for the British player, especially considering the issues he has had with injury in his relatively young career. The World Number 16 is only just back on the Tour after being forced to withdraw during his Fourth Round match at the Australian Open against Carlos Alcaraz and there is always a concern when Draper has spent a lot of time on the court.

In saying that, Jack Draper may actually benefit from the time he had to really get through a tough match after coming through the first two Rounds without facing too much pushback.

He has been serving really well this week and Jack Draper has given himself an opportunity to play with a lot of aggression on the return. That was evident in his win over Matteo Berrettini having created 13 Break Points against the big serving Italian and should also bode well for Jack Draper against another solid server.

Jiri Lehecka upset Carlos Alcaraz in the Quarter Final and backing that victory up will be the challenge in front of him.

A strong start has been made to the 2025 season and Jiri Lehecka is going to crack the top 20 in the World Rankings sooner than later- it could happen on Monday if he is able to secure the title here in Doha, but that would mean coming through a couple of tough tests.

Beating someone like Carlos Alcaraz will have given Jiri Lehecka a lot of confidence and he has been able to maintain the very solid returning numbers being produced in 2025. That step up has really helped his tennis and this is another match that is going to be dominated on serve, but with two players who have been returning better than would be expected of them.

It will be close and competitive and it is no surprise that Lehecka and Draper split two hard court meetings in 2024.

At the start of that season, Jiri Lehecka was the higher Ranked player when he beat Jack Draper in the Adelaide Final, but their last meeting was at the Paris Masters in late October and by that time, it was Draper who had moved into the top 20 of the Rankings and he was a routine winner over the Czech player.

Jack Draper actually created more Break Points in both matches and he has held 92% of his service games compared with an 84% mark for Jiri Lehecka.

Both are playing with a lot of confidence right now, but those edges will give Jack Draper the advantage and he can come through with a solid win in this Semi Final and continue his own push towards the top 10 of the World Rankings.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime-Andrey Rublev Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.83 Units (12 Units Staked, - 6.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Wednesday 21st February)

The first three days in Dubai are always extremely busy with the tournament looking for a Saturday finish, despite having a big field entering, and the entire Second Round was played on Tuesday.

All eight Third Round matches are scheduled for Wednesday in what is another busy day at the tournament, while the ATP events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro are moving into Second Round action.

There were a number of selections from the Tuesday action in Dubai, but the Wednesday matches look much tougher to predict.

Any Picks from the two ATP tournaments played in South America and Central America will be added to this thread on Wednesday, as will the week's totals.

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: A poor end to 2023 looked to be behind Maria Sakkari when playing at the United Cup in January, but a disappointing Second Round exit at the Australian Open would have knocked some of the confidence.

Opening losses in Abu Dhabi and Doha have just increased the pressure around Maria Sakkari and it is no surprise that the World Number 11 has decided to make changes. It was announced that a six year Coaching arrangement with Tom Hill was to be ended and Sakkari is now looking for a new voice to take her forward.

Julien Cagnina looks to have taken over the role for now and Maria Sakkari was able to beat Emma Navarro in the Second Round on Tuesday. That is a pretty solid win for someone who had lost three matches in a row and Sakkari has to be very happy with the level she produced in that victory.

Backing it up will be the big challenge for Maria Sakkari, but she looks to have a decent enough match up in front of her in the Third Round against Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian has upset Beatriz Haddad Maia and Leylah Fernandez to make it through to the Third Round and so there has to be plenty of respect given to Jasmine Paolini. However, it should also be noted that she has been a touch fortunate at key times within those matches and Jasmine Paolini had also been beaten in three matches in a row before the wins Dubai to restore some confidence.

Both of these players will be happy with their return abilities, but the key to the outcome of the match could be the Maria Sakkari second serve. This is a shot that she has looked after a little more effectively than Jasmine Paolini has been able to do with her own second serve and may see them separated in this Third Round contest.

Maria Sakkari did win their sole previous match at the French Open in 2021, but that is not really relevant to this one.

You have to respect the fight that Jasmine Paolini is likely to bring to the court, but the hard court should favour Maria Sakkari who can find a way to cover this spread on her way to a spot in the Dubai Quarter Finals.

Alexander Bublik v Marton Fucsovics: The only selection from Dubai is followed by the only selection from the ATP Doha Second Round.

All of the matches in that Round are scheduled to be played on Wednesday and there was almost enough in the Jakub Mensik price to beat Andy Murray to entice that selection.

However, the favourite has been switched in that match and the selection comes from this pick 'em match.

It is never easy to trust Alexander Bublik because he is a player that will choose poor shot selections if it means rattling an opponent or exciting a crowd. Sometimes it works and Bublik did win a title in Montpellier earlier this month, but he has had some poor losses already in 2024.

While he is erratic, Marton Fucsovics is a solid competitor on the Tour even if he has dropped down into World Number 80. The Hungarian produced a strong First Round win, but this has not been a great match up for him and Marton Fucsovics has lost his last three matches against Alexander Bublik and not been nearly as competitive as he would have hoped.

The last of those was in 2022 so may not mean as much right now, but Alexander Bublik is playing at a slightly stronger level on the returning side of his tennis and that may end up working him through to the Quarter Finals.

In the previous head to head, Bublik has had a returning edge over Marton Fucsovics, while he has had a slight edge on the hard courts over the last twelve month period.

Nothing will be easy in this match and the fine margins will decide it, but Alexander Bublik can get on top of the biggest points to earn a path through to the next Round of the ATP Doha event.

Rain meant one of the Tennis Picks from the tournament in Rio had to be postponed until today, but there is also a case to add another couple of selections from that event which is moving into the Second Round.

One of those is backing Jaume Munar to get the better of home player Thiago Seyboth Wild- the Spaniard has won all three previous meetings and looks to be playing the superior tennis, although the home crowd will be firmly behind Seyboth Wild.

However, the latter is going to have to be a lot better than in the First Round if he is going to find a way through and Munar has beaten Thiago Seyboth Wild on a Brazilian clay court before.

The expectation is also that Cameron Norrie, the defending Champion, can cover another pretty wide spread as he moves into the Quarter Final. His opponent Tomas Barrios Vera has not been in very good form through the South American Golden Swing and has not faced opponents of this level very often of late.

The entire Second Round of the Los Cabos tournament is to be played on Wednesday with another Saturday Final scheduled.

While the markets took a while to be put up, the only match of interest for me was the one involving Jordan Thompson.

The Australian has been in fine form in Dallas and Delray Beach and is making a solid habit of beating those he is expected to, as will be the case in the Second Round here.

Serving as well as he has been will put considerable pressure on Emilio Nava and Thompson has been returning well enough to give him a chance of covering this mark.

I also liked Marcos Giron to get the better of Casper Ruud, who has not been playing much competitive tennis since the exit at the Australian Open. However, the layers are anticipating the upset and so the sole selection from this event is one the highlighted.

MY PICKS: Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jordan Thompson - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week Update: 12-6, + 9.30 Units (36 Units Staked, + 25.83% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Men's Final (February 21st)

A lot of people didn't think we would get here, but all credit has to be given to Tennis Australia for being able to put on the first Grand Slam of the 2021 season.

Others have helped, but it goes to show that authorities can manage the major sporting events that are set to take place in 2021 despite the continued havoc that Covid-19 is creating on communities around the globe. The Tennis Tour is probably one of the harder ones to manage with the tournaments that are set to be played in various countries through the course of the season, but there are positive signs that it can work, even if events have to be scheduled within one country for sustained periods.

On Saturday Naomi Osaka picked up a fourth Grand Slam title and you have to believe the world is at the feet of the 23 year old superstar. I would love to see an improvement on the clay and grass court events, but Osaka will be favourite going into any hard court tournament at the moment and she has the kind of ability that could see her win multiple more Slams through the years.

It wasn't as easy a win as the scoreboard would say with the pivotal tenth game of the first set changing the entire course of the match, but Naomi Osaka is a deserved Champion. I think Jennifer Brady will come again, although she won't enjoy the kind of draw she got in Melbourne on a regular basis in the Grand Slam events, but the Semi Final run at the US Open previously suggests the American can challenge for a Major.

Her game could be well suited to the grass courts later this year and I do think Women's Tennis is in a healthy place with a number of quality operators on the Tour already and with younger, fresher faces ready to deliver too.

The Tour will move on from Melbourne at the end of the Australian Open with a single WTA event being held in Adelaide and the ATP Tour having three events on three different continents beginning too.

There are some big names returning to main Tour level with Andy Murray back this week and Roger Federer close to his own return, while players are seemingly taking in more events than they may have in usual times. The Golden Swing in South America will begin, as will the early indoor hard court season in Europe, while the Middle East will soon have their annual big events hosting both the ATP and WTA Tour.

Before all that we have to decide the first Grand Slam of the season for the men and it looks about as good a Final as anyone could have hoped for.

Novak Djokovic will likely go in as a narrow favourite, but Daniil Medvedev may be playing as the best player in the world right now and this is a fascinating Final for us to look forward to.

My thoughts on that are below.

Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev over 39.5 games: The eight time Australian Open Champion taking on arguably the hottest player on the ATP Tour looking for a first Grand Slam title anywhere is a perfect way to sign off at the Australian Open in 2021. The layers are not taking any chances with the odds with very little separating World Number 1 Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the markets.

There has never been much between the players in previous meetings with Novak Djokovic leading the head to head 4-3, but Daniil Medvedev having the confidence of winning three of the last four between them. That includes a very comfortable straight sets win at the ATP Finals which were won by Medvedev and the Russian player has heaped the pressure on Novak Djokovic ahead of the Final with his belief that the sense of expectation could weigh heavily on his opponent's shoulders.

A strong Semi Final win suggests Novak Djokovic is not suffering with any injury issues that have lingered from the Third Round win over Taylor Fritz, although I do think that is factoring into the price for the match. Picking a winner is not going to easy considering the form that Daniil Medvedev has been showing since the Paris Masters and I think the layers have got things right with the pick 'em prices being used.

This is a court that Novak Djokovic has loved playing on through his career, but Daniil Medvedev is well suited to the conditions and the only feeling I really have is that this is going to be a long match.

The World Number 1 has not looked his best in this tournament, but Novak Djokovic is coming off arguably his best performance at the Australian Open. It will offer encouragement, but the numbers definitely lean towards Daniil Medvedev's performances not only here in this event, but in Australia over the last month.

Both have been serving well, but it is the Medvedev return of serve which has really impressed the most and I think that could be crucial on the day.

Nothing will be handed to him, but in the last three matches between these players on the hard courts the numbers do slightly lean towards Daniil Medvedev. In those matches it is the Russian who has earned more break points than Novak Djokovic in two of the three, while the other saw them both produce eleven break points on the day, and I do think there are plenty of signs that suggest that we will have a new Grand Slam Champion.

Novak Djokovic did beat Daniil Medvedev in Australia at the ATP Cup last year, but that was another close match and I do think we are going to see at least four sets played in this Final.

With the returning ability of both players it would perhaps not be a major surprise if the total games line is a touch too high, especially as Djokovic has only held 76% of his service games against Medvedev in the last three hard court matches between them. At the same time Daniil Medvedev has held 84% of his own service games so he could be very difficult to peg back if getting in front, but it looks like a match that will come down to the fine margins.

Previous matches have suggested that this could be a match that needs five sets to cover the total line with the way both have been able to return. That is something that is something that is on the mind, but the conditions are pretty quick in Melbourne, even under the lights, and it may mean there has to be at least one tie-breaker played and that will put the match well on the way to covering this line as long as it goes four sets.

I think it is going to be an exceptional Final with the experience with Novak Djokovic, although I expect Daniil Medvedev to have learned a lot from his defeat to Rafael Nadal in the 2019 US Open Final when he came from 2-0 down to almost pull off the comeback.

There are likely to be twists and turns throughout the Final, but I think it will be tight and competitive and we can see the two players produce enough games to surpass this total games line set.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 47-43, - 3.78 Units (180 Units Staked, - 2.10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (February 21st)

The first couple of days of this week have gone pretty well for the Tennis Picks and we move onto the Second Round matches on Wednesday.

Time has been an issue on Tuesday evening which means I will just place the Tennis Picks for Wednesday below. It feels like a day where the favourites in the WTA Dubai tournament are going to have a lot of success and any Picks from Rio de Janeiro and Delray Beach will be added on Wednesday.

I will also update the weekly totals at that time.


MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 20-22)

I have not really ever been a fan of the way the Last 16 of the Champions League is played over four weeks, but I guess it does allow for fans to see more of the Second Round ties.

It might have something to do with waiting until last for Manchester United to get their Second Round First Leg underway- patience is a virtue, but not when you just want to get the Champions League going again after waiting two months.

The English clubs all had a good first week back in European action with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured a place in the next Round after recording thumping away wins. Tottenham Hotspur are also the favourites to see off Juventus after coming from 2-0 down in Turin, but now the attention turns to Chelsea and Manchester United.

Both teams face difficult challenges from Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and these two are involved in the stand out ties of the week in the Champions League.

On Thursday the attention will turn to the completion of the Europa League Last 32 Round with the draw for the Last 16 made on Friday.

Monday night proved to be of huge significance in England as Wigan Athletic shocked Manchester City by beating them in the FA Cup yet again. That's the third time in six seasons The Latics have beaten Manchester City in this Cup and it ended all talk of the Quadruple for the latter.

It just goes to show how big an achievement it was for the Manchester United 1998/99 team to go on and win 'The Treble' (I mean the real Treble too) and Manchester City are under some pressure now to add to the Premier League that they have had in control for a couple of months.

This weekend they face Arsenal in the League Cup Final and another defeat in a domestic Cup competition can't be contemplated by the fans.

I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the decisions Jose Mourinho has to make to get the best out of his top players. That can be read here and was written in the days after the 1-0 loss to Newcastle United.

Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.


Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.

The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.

The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.

Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.

However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.

Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.

I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.


Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.

Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.

There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.

No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.

Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.

Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.

Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.

Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.

Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.

Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.


Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.

The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.

Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.

That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.

Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.

However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.

Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.

Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.

It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.

They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.

Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.

If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.

Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.

The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.

They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.

AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.

It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.


Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.

It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.

However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.

This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.

It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.


Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.

Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.

It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.

Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.

All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.

With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.

Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.

I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.

The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.

However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.

I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.

I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.


Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.

The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.

That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.

We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.

Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.

Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.


Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.

It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.

What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.

Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.

My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.

There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)