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Showing posts with label February 20-22. Show all posts
Showing posts with label February 20-22. Show all posts

Tuesday, 20 February 2018

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (February 20-22)

I have not really ever been a fan of the way the Last 16 of the Champions League is played over four weeks, but I guess it does allow for fans to see more of the Second Round ties.

It might have something to do with waiting until last for Manchester United to get their Second Round First Leg underway- patience is a virtue, but not when you just want to get the Champions League going again after waiting two months.

The English clubs all had a good first week back in European action with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal virtually assured a place in the next Round after recording thumping away wins. Tottenham Hotspur are also the favourites to see off Juventus after coming from 2-0 down in Turin, but now the attention turns to Chelsea and Manchester United.

Both teams face difficult challenges from Spain on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively and these two are involved in the stand out ties of the week in the Champions League.

On Thursday the attention will turn to the completion of the Europa League Last 32 Round with the draw for the Last 16 made on Friday.


Monday night proved to be of huge significance in England as Wigan Athletic shocked Manchester City by beating them in the FA Cup yet again. That's the third time in six seasons The Latics have beaten Manchester City in this Cup and it ended all talk of the Quadruple for the latter.

It just goes to show how big an achievement it was for the Manchester United 1998/99 team to go on and win 'The Treble' (I mean the real Treble too) and Manchester City are under some pressure now to add to the Premier League that they have had in control for a couple of months.

This weekend they face Arsenal in the League Cup Final and another defeat in a domestic Cup competition can't be contemplated by the fans.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United and the decisions Jose Mourinho has to make to get the best out of his top players. That can be read here and was written in the days after the 1-0 loss to Newcastle United.

Now onto the European Picks from this midweek's action.


Bayern Munich v Besiktas Pick: After finishing 2nd in their Champions League Group, Bayern Munich had to be over the moon when they were paired with Besiktas in the Last 16 of the competition. That isn't to say anyone at the club are going to be taking anything for granted in this tie, but Bayern Munich could have had a much bigger test in this Round having finished behind Paris Saint-Germain.

The German giants look in much better shape now than they did back in September when crushed in the French capital by Paris Saint-Germain. 13 straight wins has given Bayern Munich some momentum and the squad looks as healthy as it has at any stage in the 2017/18 season.

The First Leg is played at home this week and Bayern Munich have been scoring goals for fun in recent weeks in front of their own fans. Defensively they have looked a little suspect which is a concern the further they progress in the Champions League, but the goals being scored means Bayern Munich have to feel they can put themselves in a commanding position in the tie before the Second Leg in Istanbul.

Besiktas will be looking to avoid that fate on Tuesday in the First Leg and they will travel to Bayern Munich with some confidence having won 4 of their last 5 away Champions League ties including all 3 played this season. In that time Besiktas have won in Napoli, Porto, Monaco and against Bundesliga's own Leipzig.

However playing Bayern Munich feels like another step up for Besiktas as they take on one of the favourites to win the Champions League. The lack of away clean sheets has to be a concern for Besiktas too, and Bayern Munich have scored 11 goals in their 3 home games following the Winter Break.

Bayern Munich also scored three times in each of their home wins in the Champions League Group Stage and they have been very strong in this Round of the competition in recent years. I favour the home side to dominate much of the play and create chances as they have been, while moving into a strong position in the tie ahead of the Second Leg.

I will back the home team to win and cover the big Asian Handicap in the First Leg.


Chelsea v Barcelona Pick: This looked to be the toughest of the assignments for the five English clubs left in the Champions League when Chelsea take on Barcelona over the next month. Recent form for Chelsea may have depleted much of the optimism that the fans may have been feeling, but Antonio Conte has seen his players respond to some difficult results.

Chelsea at least come in with back to back wins and they have only lost 1 of their last 18 home games in all competitions. The home Leg is always going to be very important for Chelsea who were the only English club who failed to win their Group and thus had to face one of the tougher fixtures they could have been drawn with in the Last 16.

There should be some confidence in the Chelsea ranks considering the squad is well rested and looks about as healthy as Conte could have asked. However the draws with Roma and Atletico Madrid in home Group games is a bit of a concern for Chelsea who will have to be significantly better to beat the Spanish League leaders Barcelona.

No one will dispute the talent Barcelona have in their ranks, but it does have to be noted that they are not at the same level as the team that won the Champions League in 2015. This team certainly doesn't travel as well as the odds would suggest with Barcelona coming into the First Leg as pretty strong favourites to beat Chelsea.

Barcelona have only won 1 of their last 5 away Champions League games having drawn 0-0 at both Sporting Lisbon and Juventus in the Group. They have also lost their last 3 away Knock Out ties in the Champions League without scoring and Chelsea have shown they can be very good defensively at Stamford Bridge.

Take away the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth and Chelsea have conceded one other goal in their last 9 at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. The 3-3 draw with Roma and 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Group Stage is a concern, but I think a rested team who can call upon their first choice back three will feel they can at least contain Barcelona and the damage the away side can produce.

Keeping them out is a challenge, but Barcelona have scored 1 goal in their last 5 Champions League away games and that doesn't inspire confidence in short odds to win here. Historically they have struggled at Stamford Bridge with 4 losses in 6 previous visits to this ground and Barcelona have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 at Stamford Bridge.

Even that was the controversial equaliser in injury time of the 2011 Semi Final which took Barcelona through to the Final on away goals.

Recent form has dented some of my confidence in Chelsea, but I think they can earn a positive result in this one. As good as Barcelona are, they are not the greatest travellers and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Chelsea had some sort of lead to protect at the Nou Camp next month.

Backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat against a short odds favourite is the call for me. I was almost tempted to have a small interest in Chelsea winning with their history against Barcelona, but ultimately a low-scoring draw could also be the outcome and I will just look for Chelsea to earn some kind of positive result.


Sevilla v Manchester United Pick: The last four Europa League titles have been won by either Sevilla (3 times) or Manchester United and these teams meet in a big Last 16 tie in the Champions League with the First Leg to come this week.

The home Leg is very important for Sevilla who have shown improvement since Vincenzo Montella took over as manager at the end of December and this is a team who have proven to be tough to beat on their own patch. They have won 4 of their last 5 games here including beating Atletico Madrid, and Sevilla also have a strong home record in the Champions League where they have won 6 of their last 9 fixtures.

Twelve months ago Sevilla dominated Leicester City in the home Leg of their Last 16 tie but could not take their chances in what ended up being a narrow 2-1 win. That saw Sevilla exit the Champions League having lost in England, while Manchester City won here in 2015/16 and Liverpool were leading 0-3 here in the Group Stage before self-destructing in the 3-3 draw.

That has to give Manchester United confidence especially as they showed they can produce the goods in Knock Out Football in the Europa League last season. Manchester United won at St Etienne and Celta Vigo in those Knock Out Rounds and led late at Anderlecht, while they have won in CSKA Moscow and Benfica in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season.

Recent form does reduce some of the optimism for Manchester United in this Last 16 tie, especially with losses at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United recently. The failure to score in both of those defeats is an issue for Manchester United, but I think they will have chances here and can cause some problems for Sevilla.

However I also think Sevilla will have their opportunities against a Manchester United defence that has not looked as strong as Jose Mourinho would have liked. While I do think Mourinho will want to set his side up to be tough to beat, I think they will struggle to contain Sevilla and the layers may be caught out with their odds against quotes for at least three goals to be shared out here.

Sevilla home games in the Champions League have been high scoring with their last 7 home Champions League games featuring at least three goals. In all 5 previous home games Sevilla have played against English opposition there have been three or more goals shared out including in the 2-1 win over Leicester City last season and I think their style of play and desire to have a lead from the First Leg will produce an attacking game of football.

Both teams can create their chances in this one and I will back at least three goals to be shared out, even if as a Manchester United fan I would happily take a 0-1 or 0-2 win ahead of the Second Leg back at Old Trafford early next month.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Roma Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Roma have to view this Last 16 Champions League tie as a major opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition and I think there won't be a lot between them over two Legs.

It is always a tough task for those clubs in Eastern Europe who are coming in off a long Winter Break when European competition resumes. Shakhtar Donetsk are playing just their second game since the Winter Break and that has been problematic in the past, although this is a team who have played very well at home through this season.

They showed what they can do with 3 wins over Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City in the Group Stage and Roma have notoriously been poor travellers in the Champions League. However Roma will point to their fightback at Stamford Bridge in the 3-3 draw against Chelsea and their 1-2 win over Qarabag as proof that this current squad have a little more about them.

Roma have been in decent enough form in recent weeks to feel confident about this trip, although previous Roma teams have lost here in 2006 and 2011. This team have won back to back away games, but winning in the Ukraine against Shakhtar Donetsk has been a challenge for better teams than Roma and I think the home team deserve their favouritism.

If this match had been played in a few weeks with more football under Shakhtar Donetsk's belts, I would really favour them at the prices to earn a victory and have a lead on their visit to the Italian capital. However I think the prices are factoring in Shakhtar Donetsk's long Winter Break and the limited football they have played and so it may pay off to back them on the Asian Handicap which returns the full stake if this fixture ends in a draw.

Napoli, who are 16 points clear of Roma in Serie A, lost here earlier this season and Roma do have their difficulties away from home in the Champions League. I wouldn't be surprised if Roma scored here, but I think Shakhtar Donetsk can win this First Leg and I will take them on the Asian Handicap to do that.


Dynamo Kiev v AEK Athens Pick: The 1-1 draw in Greece has put Dynamo Kiev in the driving seat in this Last 32 tie in the Europa League and I expect they are going to have enough to not only see off AEK Athens, but win this Second Leg too.

The onus is on AEK Athens to head to Kiev and to score at least once if they have any chance of making it through to the next Round. That could be a big ask for a team who have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away European ties.

They are now going to the home of Dynamo Kiev where they have been very strong at the Europa League level even if they have not managed to take that into the Champions League in recent years. However this is a fixture more like what Dynamo Kiev expect to face in the Europa League and I think they will be able to exploit any spaces AEK Athens leave the longer this game goes on.

AEK Athens have to be respected for the fact they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 4 away Europa League ties including at Milan and Austria Vienna. However those goalless draws earned AEK Athens the points they needed to get through to the Last 32 and a goalless draw here means defeat and an exit from the competition.

It should mean more risks are taken by the away team and I will back Dynamo Kiev to exploit that by recording a home win in the Second Leg.


Lazio v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The 1-0 win for Steaua Bucharest in the First Leg of this Europa League tie puts them in a strong position, although Lazio should still feel confident of turning things around in front of their own fans.

It's definitely feeling like a tight situation for Lazio knowing how much an away goal will dent their chances of progressing, while recent form has been really poor for a side chasing a Champions League spot.

However they did earn a confidence boosting 2-0 win over Verona on Monday night and Lazio have generally performed well at home where they have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions. Even in the Europa League Group Stage Lazio managed 2 wins from 3 home Group games and they are facing a Steaua Bucharest team who have not travelled well when visiting Italy in the past.

This Steaua Bucharest team have played well this season though, and won 2 out of 3 away Group games in the Europa League while also drawing 0-0 at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League Play Off Round. I imagine they will look to frustrate the home crowd in this one too by not leaving too many spaces for Lazio to exploit, but I am favouring the home side to work their way through this Second Leg.

It won't always be easy for Lazio, but the home performances have to give the players confidence in keeping two avenues into the Champions League open for next season. The first goal will be absolutely critical and I think if Lazio can get that, they will be able to grind down Steaua Bucharest for a win by a couple of goals that will take them through to the Last 16 of the Europa League.


Leipzig v Napoli Pick: This tie looks like it is already over after Leipzig came from a goal down to beat Napoli 1-3 in Italy last week.

Most will look at that result and think it is probably the best thing for Napoli to exit the Europa League and concentrate on the Serie A title challenge, but manager Maurizio Sarri was not that impressed with the performance and I think he will be looking for a reaction.

It does make Napoli dangerous as we all know the kind of attacking talent they have in the squad and there is every chance Leipzig may decide to sit on the lead they have. However that is not really in the nature of this Leipzig team and the Second Leg could produce fireworks much like the first.

Napoli are chasing at least three goals here so they can't really afford to start slowly and that should leave spaces for Leipzig to try and exploit. There is every chance the game could be really open going into the final 20 minutes with Napoli capable of scoring the goals to at least worry Leipzig, although the bigger concern may be trying to keep the back door shut.

All 3 Napoli away games in the Champions League Group ended with at least three goals shared out as they were beaten 2-1 each time at Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City and Feyenoord. The Leipzig home games in the Champions League Group Stage saw both teams score in each game and the last 2 produce three or more goals.

With the situation as it is, I can see these teams combining for another high-scoring game. I do think both teams will score in the Second Leg and I think the spaces at the end of the fixture should mean there are plenty of chances for the third goal to be scored in this one.

Last week the First Leg came to life in the second half with all four goals scored in those last 45 minutes, but there is every chance this one picks up from where that game was left off. Backing at least three goals looks to be the sensible play in this one.


Zenit St Petersburg v Celtic Pick: There were enough chances for both teams to produce a higher scoring game than they did last week, but I am going back to the same market when Zenit St Petersburg and Celtic meet in Russia in the Second Leg of this Europa League Last 32 tie.

I do think Zenit St Petersburg will have benefited from the outing having not played competitive football since December, and they will be confident of turning around a 1-0 deficit as they did against Utrecht in the Europa League Qualifiers earlier this season.

The home form has been very good for Zenit St Petersburg in this competition having won 17 of their last 19 here which includes winning their last 4 this season. They scored at least twice in each of their 3 home games in the Group, although there has to be a slight concern that Celtic created as many chances as they did last week especially as Zenit St Petersburg did not keep a clean sheet at home in the Group Stage.

However Celtic have been poor travellers in European competition and have lost 3 of their last 4 on their travels this season. The exception was a stunning 0-3 win over Anderlecht, and I think Brendan Rodgers is going to set his team up to try and score what could be a critical away goal in this tie.

I have to expect better from Zenit St Petersburg all around after what was a disappointing performance for the most part in Glasgow. The game under their belt will have helped and Celtic are not as dangerous away from home as they are in front of their own fans, while this is a side who have generally struggled in recent years when the European competition has ramped up in the Group Stage.

I also have to think Zenit St Petersburg will be a little better when the chances do come their way, while the defence will give Celtic some opportunities too. The situation of Knock Out Football could also see this Second Leg really open up if there is an early goal to get things going and I like the chances of seeing better finishing to produce three or more goals in this one.


Arsenal v Ostersund Pick: This Europa League Last 32 tie is almost certainly over after Arsenal won 0-3 in Sweden last week and that means Arsene Wenger will likely rotate his squad to keep key players fresh for the League Cup Final on Sunday. A much changed team have played well at the Europa League level before Christmas so there won't be a lot of concern that Arsenal are somehow going to fail to win their first Knock Out tie in European Football for many a year.

The home team will still likely call upon the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Danny Welbeck to pose an attacking threat in this one, but I am also expecting a lot more from Ostersund than what they produced in the home Leg.

That is slightly harsh as I think Ostersund played really well after self-destructing to fall into a 0-2 hole early in the First Leg and they were unfortunate not to score. This week they will be facing a less experienced Arsenal team and I do think Ostersund are capable of scoring a famous goal that their visiting supporters will appreciate.

We have seen the Arsenal 'Cup' team struggle at times this season even if they did win 2 of 3 home Europa League Group games. They had narrow wins over the likes of Doncaster Rovers and Norwich City in the League Cup though and Ostersund showed plenty of promise on the attack last week and were a penalty kick away from scoring in the home tie.

Ostersund have scored in Galatasaray, PAOK and Hertha Berlin in the Europa League this season and I think another week under their belt will mean better fitness and a little more composure when the chances do come their way.

Ultimately Arsenal will still likely be a little too good on the day with the attacking players they are expected to use, but I can see Ostersund playing their part in this one. I will look for both teams to score in a decent game of football on Thursday evening as Arsenal put their name into the Last 16 draw to be made on Friday.


Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund Pick: If this Second Leg is anything like the First, fans are in for a treat when Atalanta try and turn around their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Borussia Dortmund.

It is relatively easy to make a case for both sides in the Second Leg with Atalanta being a strong home team who won all 3 Europa League games here earlier in the season, while Borussia Dortmund have shown a real upturn in form since returning from the Winter Break.

What looks almost certain to occur is for this Second Leg to produce goals and I am going to back at least four to be scored for the second game in a row between these teams.

Atalanta can be patient knowing they need a single goal to win this fixture as long as they keep a clean sheet, but that looks a long shot having conceded in 6 of their last 7 here in all competitions. They are also facing a Borussia Dortmund side who have scored in 15 consecutive away games in all competitions including at Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in the Champions League.

On the other hand it is hard to see Atalanta failing to score at least once having done that in 15 of their last 17 home games in all competitions. Once again I expect Borussia Dortmund to help having been far from watertight, while an early goal in this one should really ramp up the attacking football.

My gut feeling is that Atalanta can win this game and progress through to the Last 16, but Borussia Dortmund's form has been the superior of the two teams going into the Second Leg which puts me off the home win. However backing at least four goals to be scored looks a very big price with this fixture potentially going the same way as last week thanks to the situation both teams find themselves in.

There is the potential for both teams to be a little more wary of what the other can produce and thus focus a little more on the defensive side of the game, but an early game could throw those plans out of the window. Both teams have shown attacking threat coupled with defensive vulnerability in recent weeks and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: Bayern Munich - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dynamo Kiev @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lazio - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leipzig-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal-Ostersund Both Teams to Score @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atalanta-Borussia Dortmund Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Saturday, 20 February 2016

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (February 20-22)

How many more body blows can Louis Van Gaal and Manchester United take before they decide to make the move on the manager? A 2-1 defeat in Midtjylland is not a decisive result in that Europa League tie, but it was yet another shocking performance and it looks clear that the players are no longer really responding to what Van Gaal wants.

Aside from after the defeat to Stoke City on Boxing Day, this has got to be the closest moment that Ed Woodward looks at the situation and is perhaps preparing to make a move. You would think two more Cup defeats in the coming week will be enough to push Van Gaal over the edge of the cliff on which he has been teetering for months.

However my overriding feeling continues to be that Van Gaal has a minimum goal of reaching the Champions League and the decision to sack him might not be made until Manchester United are confirmed to be out of that competition. That is what happened when David Moyes was given his marching orders, but I can't help feel that this season can still be salvaged if Manchester United do decide to sack Van Gaal.

I don't think anyone can doubt that his tenure has to be considered a failure as Manchester United have regressed over the past nine months and I actually think the last thing the manager needs is an FA Cup tie at a lower League club like they face on Monday. They do look a vulnerable team going into that one, but Manchester United have responded to a crisis situation once this season and beating Shrewsbury Town and Midtjylland during the next few days will ease things for Van Gaal.

I already think his position is untenable beyond this season no matter how it ends barring winning the Europa League and even then I would be surprised if Van Gaal is kept on. With Pep Guardiola rocking up at Manchester City this summer, it is also a big one for Manchester United who can't afford to be left behind in the League especially not by their local rivals.


Arsenal v Hull City Pick: The FA Cup is a random draw, but this will be the third season in a row that Arsenal and Hull City will meet after The Gunners won the FA Cup Final against them in 2014 and then beat Hull City in the FA Cup Third Round in 2015. This time around it is a Fifth Round tie and Arsenal are rightly the favourites, although the unknown of the kind of side Arsene Wenger will pick means the layers are seeing a drift on the home win price.

I don't think anyone can doubt that Arsenal will be far shorter to win many Premier League games at The Emirates Stadium this season, but a big Champions League game against Barcelona is looming. However I think it has been underestimated the chances of Hull City making a number of changes with Steve Bruce's focus on getting back into the Premier League.

Hull City will be asked to play four games in an eleven day period and this looks a fixture that Bruce will utilise his squad.

With that in mind I think a changed Arsenal team will be too strong for a changed Hull City team and will likely come through this tie at the first time of asking. There should still be enough quality in the home squad to create chances in front of their own fans and I think both Arsenal and Hull City will give this a go as they look to avoid a replay that does neither side any favour.

An open game could develop, but I fancy Arsenal to have a little more pace in the forward areas to cause Hull City more problems than the other way around. At the end of it I think Arsenal win this by a couple of goals and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Everton Pick: There continue to be too many inconsistent performances from Everton which are beginning to frustrate the fans, but those in attendance on the south coast may see a familiar line up this weekend. That might not be the case for the Bournemouth fans as Eddie Howe is likely to rest players for the vital Premier League games to come and the manager has made wholesale changes for both FA Cup games to date.

That doesn't mean he can't change his mind with the next League game a week away, but Howe is likely to give his team a chance to recharge batteries after consecutive home losses. He will employ his squad for this FA Cup Fifth Round game and I think that gives Everton a significant edge.

Defensively Bournemouth have struggled and Everton did score three times here earlier this season and also in 3 of their last 4 games on their travels. The Premier League game might have ended 3-3, but Everton were winning 0-2 with ten minutes left and also scored in the 95th minute to go ahead 2-3 which should have earned them the win.

Roberto Martinez has previous in guiding a team to a FA Cup success in his time at Wigan Athletic and I think he will recognise the importance of trying to win this competition. I expect a strong Everton team to continue their solid away form through the course of this season and I like them to win this one.

At odds against Everton have to be worth chancing against a Bournemouth team that might not be as recognisable and who might already be focusing the mind on the Premier League relegation battle which is ahead.


Blackburn Rovers v West Ham United Pick: It might be Championship versus the Premier League, but Blackburn Rovers showed last season they are not to be underestimated in these one off games. They beat Swansea City and Stoke City in the FA Cup at Ewood Park and they gave Liverpool all they could handle in a 0-1 defeat.

It is also the kind of tie that would have proved to be a big banana skin for West Ham United in the past so anyone who thinks it is easy to pick the winner might be in for a surprise.

In saying all that, I do think West Ham United have enough of an edge to warrant being backed at odds against in the first of the Sunday live FA Cup games. There is enough attacking talent here to give Blackburn Rovers something to think about, while Paul Lambert has to find the goals to replace Jordan Rhodes who was sold to Middlesbrough last month.

Blackburn Rovers have been beaten by Burnley, Brighton and Hull City at home in the League, teams that are in the top four of the Championship. Now they face one of the better teams in the Premier League and I can see the quality of a player like Dimitri Payet proving to be the difference maker as West Ham United move to within a game of Wembley Stadium.


Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: Mauricio Pochettino has already ruled out Hugo Lloris for this FA Cup Fifth Round tie, but I have to believe the manager when he says he will play a strong team in the Cup. I was surprised by the team selection in the Europa League at Fiorentina during the week and the 1-1 draw in Florence makes Tottenham Hotspur favourites to progress to the Last 16 as the big games keep coming.

A home tie with Crystal Palace represents a good chance for Tottenham Hotspur to reach the Sixth Round and this has been a very good season to this point. Ending it with silverware has to be the aim for the fans at this point, especially as they are very much involved in three competitions including challenging for the Premier League title.

They might also be getting Crystal Palace at the right time as The Eagles form has dropped off considerably in recent weeks. However this is a competition Alan Pardew has really been focusing on and I think perhaps that has filtered through to the players who have been performing better in the Cup matches.

The counter attacking style should suit them away from home and I think this could be quite an entertaining game between the London rivals. I fancy Tottenham Hotspur will have a little too much on current form, but I think Crystal Palace will play their part and I would not at all be surprised if Emmanuel Adebayor scored for the away team.

With the Cup situation, I can see both teams pushing for the winner in this one and Tottenham Hotspur could play the game knowing they don't want another replay to put into a busy schedule. Goals could be the outcome and I will back at least three to be shared out by these teams in the one game on Sunday that won't be live.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: This is a really big game for Chelsea as they focus on the FA Cup, but Manchester City are still in a position to win all four trophies they entered this season. However, Manuel Pellegrini has admitted that he has to play a weakened team with the priority being the Champions League and the refusal to see this game moved forward has forced his hand.

There are a lot of injuries in the Manchester City squad which means Pellegrini's options have been stretched and you have to believe the manager when he says he will make changes.

On the other hand Chelsea can play a strong team with the FA Cup too important for them to drop although they do have to overcome the fact they were in action during the week. That was a tough game for Chelsea in Paris, but a more recognised starting eleven than their visitors will produce is likely to be a difference maker.

Chelsea have definitely been playing better under Guus Hiddink although defensively they have still looked a little too messy. However I don't think a weakened Manchester City will be able to exploit those vulnerabilities and I do like the home team to win this one.

Before the defeat to Bradford City last season, Chelsea's previous 2 FA Cup runs had been ended by Manchester City, but this is a chance for revenge.


Shrewsbury Town v Manchester United Pick: The defeat in Midtjylland was another bitter pill for Louis Van Gaal to swallow and now Manchester United have a really big test ahead of them. It hasn't been too often through the years that Manchester United going to a League One club would be seen as a cause for concern, but the injuries in the squad as well as a battered confidence does make it look like the club are in a vulnerable position.

A similar side to the one that took to the field against Midtjylland will likely be picked as Van Gaal decided to trim the squad last summer and now the injuries have limited his options. That team should have been good enough to win in Denmark in all honesty, but they will have to defend better than they did on that day if they are going to prevent Shrewsbury Town from being encouraged in this one.

It also has to be remembered that Shrewsbury Town are not just a League One club, but one that has been struggling towards the bottom of the table. The win over Sheffield Wednesday deserves a lot of respect in the FA Cup Fourth Round, but Shrewsbury Town have lost Barnsley, Oldham Athletic and Southend United around that victory.

They might have 'nothing to lose' but Shrewsbury Town could also believe they have a chance for the upset and that changes the mentality a little bit. This is still a Manchester United team with a lot of quality in it in the forward areas and better composure in front of goal than they showed against Midtjylland will give Manchester United the chances to win this game.

It has been hard in the immediate aftermath of the loss to Midtjylland to believe in Manchester United. However a few hours digesting that result and knowing the chances and control Manchester United had early in the second half makes me believe the side can bounce back here.

Shrewsbury Town have had a good Cup run, but they are not a very good team in realistic terms and I think Manchester United give Van Gaal a morale boosting victory here and ease the pressure that is clearly building on the manager.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Everton @ 2.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.40 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

February Update: 20-11-1, + 19.52 Units (62 Units Staked, + 31.48% Yield)

January Final: 19-13, + 17.56 Units (61 Units Staked, + 28.79% Yield)
December Final: 15-23, - 9.32 Units (64 Units Staked, - 14.56% Yield)
November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)
October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 87-128-5, - 38.37 Units (467 Units Staked, - 8.22% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)