NFL Week 3 Picks 2026 (Thursday 24th September-Monday 28th September)

Playing two games out of a seventeen game schedule is not going be a time when you can declare one team a Super Bowl contender nor another being one that is on the brink of elimination, but those starting at 0-2 will be feeling some pressure.

A team like the Miami Dolphins have very low expectations and so the record is not as important as developing young players and then looking to add important names in the next NFL Draft.

However, for others like the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, the 0-2 start is a big disappointment and there will be some pressure building on them as they have failed to meet the kind of expectations that so many had for them. The Chargers have very few excuses having lost to the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders and something will need to change pretty quickly for a team that plays in the same Division as the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.

Injuries will also dictate how fans feel about their team- the Washington Commanders losing Jayden Daniels to another serious looking injury means the 0-2 position feels that much worse.

Much like last season, injuries have dominated the NFL headlines over the last week with a number of starting Quarter Backs expected to miss time, although the defending Champions Seattle Mariners could have Sam Darnold back behind Center in Week 3 having escaped what had the potential of being a serious injury in Week 1.

The key for teams is steering clear of the injuries that can severely disrupt a season, while there have also been plenty of upsets over the first couple of weeks of the season that suggest the 2026 season could potentially play out similar to 2025.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins Pick: All eyes were on Patrick Mahomes as he returned to action in Week 1 following a serious injury at the end of the 2025 season,

184 passing yards with a couple of Touchdowns and an Interception would not have impressed, but the Quarter Back led the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) to a win and has followed up by dissecting the Indianapolis Colts to keep his team unbeaten. Patrick Mahomes threw for 382 yards in the Week 2 win over the Colts and added 3 Touchdowns without throwing an Interception and Kansas City did what they had to do to remain unbeaten and looking like one of the real contenders to bounce back and earn a Playoff spot the season after missing out completely.

An early Bye Week is coming up for the Kansas City Chiefs who have opened the 2026 season with two home wins, but now have to play back to back games on the road.

Overlooking the Miami Dolphins (0-2) after coming through an Overtime victory may be the biggest obstacle for the Kansas City Chiefs to overcome- they do have to play the surprising Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 4 who are a Divisional rival and one that is also sitting at 2-0. That can be a problem for teams, even this early in the season, but it feels like something drastic will have had to change for both the Chiefs and Dolphins for this to be anything other than a road win.

The layers feel the same with the Chiefs being asked to lay a lot of points on the road, but it cannot be a surprise considering Miami have lost both games by double digits and have looked every bit as bad a team as many anticipated they would be.

The Dolphins have shifted some of the big contracts, but that has meant having to deal with dead money on the salary cap and also a change in philosophy with a young group being asked to try and lift the fanbase. In reality Miami will be targeting a very high selection in the next NFL Draft and the early performances suggest they could be the prime contender to pick up the Number 1 selection.

Malik Willis has been signed to play Quarter Back, but the Offensive Line have really had a hard time making any plays for Willis or for Running Back De'Von Achane and that has made it very tough for the Dolphins all around. Running the ball would have been the main ambition for the Dolphins as they look to make use of the best Offensive player left on the roster, but the Offensive Line have not had much success early and now face a Chiefs Defensive Line that have opened 2026 looking strong up front.

Playing from behind the chains has made things tough for Malik Willis, but it also should be said that he does not have the best supporting cast in the skill positions. This has perhaps been part of the reason Willis has been holding onto the ball longer than would be expected and that has led to the Sacks piling up and the Miami Dolphins showing very little consistency when it comes to moving the chains.

The heat of South Florida can be a leveller and that may help the Dolphins if the pass rush is slowed by increasing fatigue, but it is perhaps asking a lot of this Miami team to pile up enough points to earn the upset, despite the number of those already seen in the NFL.

It will be that much tougher to score enough points if the Kansas City Chiefs pick up from where they left off in Week 2 as a balanced Offensive unit takes to the field.

Kenneth Walker III earned the Super Bowl MVP before leaving Seattle to sign with the Chiefs and he has been part of a team that have been rushing for 5.6 yards per carry early in the season. Two games is a small sample, but the Chiefs are making use of having a Running Back that teams will respect and especially one playing behind a Quarter Back like Patrick Mahomes.

The Quarter Back is capable of moving the ball with his legs too and he will be pretty happy with the early season form shown by the Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection as well as run blocking. Patrick Mahomes is facing a Miami team that have struggled to get any pressure up front, which has exposed the inexperienced Secondary, and you have to believe Kansas City will be able to do what they like when they do have the ball.

The Chiefs beat Miami twice in the 2023 season, including in the Playoffs, while they also won on their last trip to Miami back in December 2020.

Laying this kind of number with a road favourite is never a great position to be in, but Miami could be a team that struggles to win more than once this season and the Kansas City Chiefs have the momentum that could see them pull clear in the second half.

Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Both of these teams enter this non-Conference game in Week 3 with the same 1-1 record having bounced back from Week 1 losses.

The Carolina Panthers (1-1) really impressed by going into Atlanta and crushing the NFC South rivals, while the Cleveland Browns (1-1) upset the odds as a big underdog when beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. These wins are impressive considering the way the Panthers and Browns were beaten in Week 1 and Cleveland will be looking to build on the success in the home opener.

That brings motivation, but the Browns have to make sure they are focused and not thinking to the Week 4 game against AFC North rivals Pittsburgh Steelers, which is set to be played on Thursday Night Football.

Deshaun Watson remains the starter for the Cleveland Browns, but the Quarter Back will be aware that there are plenty of critics ready to call for him to be removed as soon as he hits a rough patch. In the win over the Buccaneers, Watson had almost 240 passing yards to go with the 2 Touchdowns thrown, while avoiding an Interception is a huge positive for the Quarter Back and the Cleveland Browns.

He will be confident heading into the first home game of the 2026 season, but Deshaun Watson will be keen to see the Offensive Line pick up their play and start opening up significant running lanes to keep him in positive field position. An injury on the Line does not help, but Cleveland are facing a Panthers Defensive Line that had been gashed in Week 1 and that will offer them some encouragement.

It will help Deshaun Watson, who is going to be facing a Carolina Secondary that have performed pretty well through the opening two weeks.

They have been helped by the pass rush pressure that the Panthers have been able to generate and the Cleveland Offensive Line have struggled when it comes to giving Watson the time he may need at the Quarter Back position. This is going to be important for the Panthers as they bid to get the ball in the hands of Bryce Young and an Offensive unit that has impressed through the opening two games, even if the record says those games have been split.

Balance is the key for the Carolina Panthers and they have found that Offensively with the team able to run the ball as well as Bryce Young has been able to throw the ball.

The Carolina Offensive Line will believe they can impose themselves on this Browns Defensive Line and keeping the Quarter Back in third and manageable spots will give the Panthers the edge. It will mean slowing down any pass rush that the Cleveland Browns can generate and Bryce Young has shown that he has grown into the system with his own performance in the opening two games having helped the Panthers into the Playoffs last season.

Cleveland could be without a couple of key Secondary performers if they do not want to risk those with issues ahead of a Thursday Night Football, and that should give Bryce Young an opportunity to continue his strong start to the year.

Conditions should be comfortable for the Carolina Panthers and the added balance on the Offensive side of the ball should be the key to giving the road team the edge.

The Panthers have not always been the best on the road with Bryce Young under Center, but the win last week in Atlanta should have given them plenty of momentum and they may do enough Offensively to give Deshaun Watson and the Browns too much to do.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Carolina Panthers - 2 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 2: 3-4, - 1.31 Units (7 Units Staked, - 18.71% Yield)

Week 1: 2-4-1, - 2.23 Units (7 Units Staked, - 31.86% Yield)

College Football Week 5 Picks 2025 (Saturday 27th September)

The last three weeks have been something of a frustrating time for the College Football Picks and there have been a number of late scores that have been given up to flip the spread.

Last week it was the USC Trojans who were on their way to a cover, but allowed a long Touchdown pass to be completed with less than three minutes left on the clock to give up a second backdoor cover in three games.

Backing them this week may feel a little risky with that in mind, but they should be ready to show the rest of the Big Ten that they are a genuine contender within the Conference and perhaps for even more.

Moving into Week 5 does mean the Conference schedules are really underway and there are some big, big games over the weekend.

All eyes will be on the Penn State-Oregon and Georgia-Alabama games, but those are very tough to predict and instead the focus is on other games as far as the selections go.

The majority of selections are from games in the first two windows of action on Saturday with the last being a late, late night show from the Big 12.

USC Trojans @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Some will argue that the Big Ten may be the toughest Conference in College Football with the Ohio State Buckeyes the National Champions and the likes of the Oregon Ducks, Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana Hoosiers all looking capable of matching the Playoff runs from 2024.

Add the USC Trojans (4-0) to the mix after they continued their perfect start to the season with a big home win over the Michigan State Spartans. That victory also means USC are leading the way in the Big Ten Conference with the 2-0 record in the books, although this is a team that is still going to learn a lot more about themselves in the weeks and months ahead.

Wins over the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans are decent enough, but the Trojans will be set for a challenge in Week 5 when visiting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1).

Granted, there may have been a really different feel around the game if the Fighting Illini had not just been crushed by 53 points at the home of the Hoosiers.

Losing is one thing and the Fighting Illini will be aware that they still have time to turn the perceptions around, but the bigger impact is the number of injuries suffered in the Secondary both before the loss to the Hoosiers and during the defeat. In the Big Ten you need your best players and Illinois are going to be without some hugely influential players that will make it tough to slow down a USC Offensive unit that have begun the season incredibly brightly.

The early Saturday kick off time is an issue, but USC did not let that bother them in the road win over Purdue.

There will be a real feeling on the Offensive side of the ball that the Trojans can do much of what they like considering how well the Offensive Line are playing. They should be able to establish the run very efficiently and this is just going to make things as comfortable as possible for Quarter Back Jayden Maiava, even if Ja'Kobi Lane has to miss another game.

With the injuries in the Secondary and the likelihood of the Trojans running the ball very well, Jayden Maiava should have his way as he continues to be well protected and it should mean the USC Trojans can pile up some points.

The pressure will subsequently be on Luke Altmyer and the Illinois Fighting Illini Offensive unit to at least be able to control the tempo of this game and to try and keep up with the Trojans on the scoreboard.

There are very little positives to take out of the beat down in Indiana and Luke Altmyer struggled with less than 150 passing yards thrown.

Problems began right up front as the Offensive Line struggled to open up holes in the running game and the grand total of 2 rushing yards last week was clearly a big issue. Despite the three wins secured early, the Fighting Illini had been inconsistent on the ground and they are not likely to see much change out of this strong looking USC Defensive Line.

It wasn't just run blocking, but the Illinois Offensive Line struggled in pass protection and there is every chance that the Quarter Back is going to be under siege for a second game in a row. Seven Sacks were produced by the Hoosiers and this Trojans pass rush are going to feel they are in and around Luke Altmyer all day if the Fighting Illini have struggled to run the ball.

As teams have chased big deficits, the Trojans have allowed some passing yards to be given up, but this looks another big test for the Fighting Illini Offensively having failed as comprehensively as they did in Week 4.

The Trojans are just 3-12 against the spread in the last fifteen games in which they have been set as the road favourite and that does temper some enthusiasm to back them here.

However, they look the stronger team on both sides of the ball and this feels like a very tough spot for Illinois after all they suffered last week.

Head Coach Bret Bielema has a good record after a loss and he has been a solid underdog to back, but his Illinois team are just 2-3 against the spread as the home underdog in the last couple of seasons. They will be better than last week, which is not going to be too difficult, but the USC Trojans can do enough Offensively to pull away and then allow the pass rush to force the stops needed to secure a win by double digits for a fifth time in five outings in 2025.

Utah State Aggies @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: As a former player, Head Coach Clark Lea was always going to take the job with the Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0) and the only way was up after the team had finished 0-9 in the 2020 season.

With that being said, the Commodores finished 2-10 in two of the first three seasons under this Head Coach and 5-7 in 2022, while Vanderbilt had not had a winning record since 2013.

All that changed in 2024 with the team winning a Bowl Game to end the season at 7-6 and that includes Clark Lea leading the team to a first ever win against a top five Ranked opponent when upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide. They finished 3-5 within the tough SEC, and Vanderbilt have brought back 19 starters from the team that achieved so much last time around, which has in turn sparked this 4-0 start.

Week 6 sees the rematch with the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, but all of the focus this week is on Vanderbilt beating the Utah State Aggies (3-1).

Three straight losing seasons have been placed in the books, but Utah State are being led by Bronco Mendenhall in his first season as Head Coach and they are one win away from matching the total from last season. There is a huge amount of respect for Mendenhall in the Vanderbilt Coaching ranks, including Clark Lea who has described the veteran as a 'mentor'.

Utah State have an upset win on the board against the Air Force Falcons, but they were well beaten in the sole road game played at Texas A&M Aggies.

Healthy respect aside, this is a big chance for Vanderbilt to conclude September as an unbeaten team and playing with confidence before heading into Alabama where the home team will be desperate for revenge. They will accept that the Aggies can cause problems with a dual-threat at the Quarter Back position, but this Commodores Defensive Line have clamped down on the run early this season and they will be looking to do the same here.

Quarter Back Bryson Barnes has put up some solid numbers in the first four games of the season, but he will be under a lot of pressure if the Aggies are not able to run the ball. His Offensive Line have not been nearly as productive when it comes to pass protection and Barnes will be aware that this Vanderbilt pass rush is going to be coming for him.

That pressure up front has protected the Secondary and Bryson Barnes will just need to be aware of turning the ball over under pressure.

These issues were on display when Utah State were beaten at Texas A&M earlier this season and the road team are going to have to work hard to shut down what has been a very confident Vanderbilt Offensive unit.

Like the Mountain West team, Vanderbilt have a dual-threat playing from the Quarter Back position in Diego Pavia and he has almost 900 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards already this season. In the defeat to fellow SEC team Texas A&M, Utah State were not able to slow down the ground attack and this Commodores Offensive Line are going to believe they can set the team up in manageable spots throughout the game.

It should open things up for Diego Pavia, who has been very well protected when dropping back to throw the ball, and the Quarter Back can have success moving the chains with his arm.

The Commodores are not a team who have been set as the home favourite too often in recent seasons and they have generally underperformed when they have. However, this Vanderbilt team is extremely confident and experienced and they have covered as the home favourite twice, while blowing out the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road as a narrow underdog.

There is a chance that Clark Lea calls off the dogs if they have a big lead with the game against Alabama in mind, and that could allow a backdoor cover.

However, there is a feeling around this part of Nashville that hasn't been around for a long time and the Head Coach will want his team to ride to Alabama with a huge amount of belief. That should mean allowing the Offensive players to do their thing for long enough to win this game and cover the mark set as the Commodores continue to fly and try to prove themselves as something truly special this season.

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies Pick: They may have lost two games last season, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) ran through the Playoff without being pushed and they ended the year as National Champions.

Once again they are amongst the favourites to win the National Championship and the win over the Texas Longhorns in Week 1 has only strengthened the claims.

Head Coach Ryan Day is preparing his team for the opening Big Ten Conference game and it looks a real test for the Buckeyes in a true road setting.

The Washington Huskies (3-0) have also made a perfect start to the 2025 season and Head Coach Jedd Fisch is looking for much better having guided the Huskies to a 6-7 record in 2024. He was in a tough spot when taking over from Kalen DeBoer who had taken the Huskies to the National Championship Game in 2023 and had helped the team win twenty-five games across two years.

It was also a season in which Jedd Fisch was taking a team that was moving into the tough Big Ten Conference and the Huskies finished 4-5 in those games, which makes this home opener something of a statement game for the underdog as much as the Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Offensive Line let the Washington Huskies down last season, but that has been a unit that they have actively looked to improve. The early signs are better, but the Huskies are going to be tested up front by this Ohio State pass rush and especially if the home team are not able to establish the run.

It will be the Line of Scrimmage that is massively important on this side of the ball and the Buckeyes Defensive Line have to be confident having had at least one really difficult match up with the Texas Longhorns. The overall performances have been very good when it comes to playing the run and the Buckeyes will feel they can shift the pressure onto Demond Williams Jr at Quarter Back, although they will have to be wary of his ability to move the ball with his legs as much as his arm.

Demond Williams Jr is going to be up against a top Ohio State Secondary and care will have to be taken that he is not pushing the envelope so far to end up making costly mistakes.

The Huskies have won their last twenty-two games at home, but the Buckeyes represent as tough a visiting team that they will have hosted in that time.

We will also learn a lot more about the Washington Defensive unit, which has started the season very well, when they go up against this Buckeyes team.

Once again the Line of Scrimmage is going to be hugely important and the Buckeyes Offensive Line will look to impose themselves on the Washington Defensive Line. This is where the early scheduling can make a difference and the Huskies have simply not faced any team with the power of the Buckeyes, while the latter have already earned that win over Texas which has been mentioned above.

The strength to open up running lanes has also been backed up by very good pass protection and that should give Quarter Back Julian Sayin an opportunity to keep the chains moving. There have been one or two holes in the Washington Secondary that will excite the talented Receivers that the Buckeyes have and they will feel they can win their battles and give Sayin places to throw the ball.

Interceptions have been something of an issue for Julian Sayin, but he has plenty of talent around him to make up for any mistakes and the Ohio State Buckeyes can really display their superiority, even on the road.

The Huskies just feel like a team that have more to prove, and this is a significant step up in class compared with the three teams beaten.

Ohio State are also playing after a Bye Week and they are 10-7 against the spread with rest under Head Coach Ryan Day- he should have the Buckeyes really well prepared and they were also 5-2 against the spread as the road favourite in 2024, a number that they can improve in Week 5.

Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: There was plenty of controversy attached to the Auburn Tigers (3-1) losing their unbeaten record in a road loss at the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 4, but the team has to move on. The SEC admitted that the officials had made a mistake when allowing a Sooners Touchdown to stand and that will have made the 7 point loss sting, especially for a Head Coach who has had two losing seasons and can ill-afford a third.

Recent years have been tough for Auburn as they have slipped behind the standards of some of the other top schools in the SEC and losing records have become the norm. Hugh Freeze was appointed as Head Coach to turn that around, but he has an 11-14 record in the first two seasons.

There have been things to like about Auburn through the first four weeks of the season, but the loss last week means they need to show immediate recovery powers as they face an opponent that will be targeting a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M Aggies (3-0) have an upset win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish under their belt and they are playing for the first time since then.

An opening SEC game is always going to present a new challenge, but the Aggies are at home and there is a feeling that Texas A&M have shown something very positive in winning on the road at Notre Dame. Head Coach Mike Elko is trying to keep things in perspective by pointing out the team are 0-0 in SEC play this season, but the Aggies have been noted with a move into the top ten of the early Rankings.

This is the first of three consecutive home Conference games and the experienced Aggies should have taken full advantage of the Bye Week by focusing on the tape from the Oklahoma win over Auburn.

The key will be up front as the Aggies Defensive Line looks to control the Line of Scrimmage and clamp down on the Auburn rushing attack- this is a team that only allowed 3.5 yards per carry on the season last year and Texas A&M have picked up from where they left off with a strong beginning to this campaign.

Slowing down the run and forcing Jackson Arnold to beat them with his arm will be seen as a big win for the Aggies, especially when you factor in the pass protection issues that were on display in the loss to the Sooners. Some of that has been put on the Quarter Back, but the Offensive Line should take a fair portion of the blame for the Sacks racking up and now they have to deal with a very productive Texas A&M pass rush.

Issues in pass protection have limited the numbers that Jackson Arnold has been able to produce, although there has to be some credit for the fact that the Quarter Back has yet to throw an Interception, despite the pressure being put on him.

Even then, it looks like it will be another difficult day moving the ball with any consistency and that will put the pressure on the Tigers Defensive unit.

There hasn't been much going wrong for the Aggies Offensive plans early in the season, although they may feel that this is the toughest Defensive unit they will have to face.

Both teams will be well aware of the battle at the Line of Scrimmage- last season the Aggies finished second in the SEC in terms of rushing yards per game, and they have begun this season with strong ground numbers, but they are facing an Auburn Defensive Line that prides itself on being able to slow the run. In 2024 the Tigers only allowed 3 yards per carry, and they limited the Sooners to just 35 ground yards last season with this Line looking even tougher this season.

You know that neither will want to take a backwards step and so there will be plenty of runs called by the home team to try and break through, while Quarter Back Marcel Reed is capable of moving the ball with his legs.

However, it is the arm that has been impressing through three games and Marcel Reed has one edge over Jackson Arnold and that is he is playing behind an Offensive Line that has offered him time in the pocket. Keeping the Auburn pass rush at bay will be a challenge, but Reed is also going to have noted some of the holes that have been evident in the Tigers Secondary and he is going to have talented Receivers finding a way to get open and give the home team an opportunity to move the chains.

This is where the Aggies may end up having the edge and they can earn revenge for the very narrow defeat to Auburn at the back end of the 2024 season.

It was a dramatic game won in a Fourth Overtime, while the Tigers had pushed the game into Overtime by scoring a Field Goal with 5 seconds remaining in regulation.

This will not have been forgotten by the Aggies, who have a 6-0 record against the spread when set as Conference favourites of less than 16 points and with the revenge angle on their side.

Auburn have bounced back from defeats pretty well against the spread under Head Coach Hugh Freeze, but they are 0-5 against the spread when facing an opponent playing with revenge and the Texas A&M Aggies can display they are a serious Playoff contender with a solid home win in Week 5 of the season as the SEC schedule gets underway at College Station.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: Once again the Georgia Bulldogs have found a way to get the better of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-1), but there is still so much for the Volunteers to play for through the remainder of the regular season. One defeat is not going to keep them out of the College Football Playoff and the team responded to the heartbreaking defeat to the Bulldogs by crushing the UAB Blazers in Week 4.

However, there is a pressure on Tennessee to get back on track in the SEC having dropped the opening Conference game and they are facing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) who lost all eight SEC games played last season.

Credit has to be given to the Bulldogs in the fact they have already doubled the win total of 2024 through the first four games, but the schedule has been relatively comfortable. The narrow win over the Arizona State Sun Devils, a team that made the Playoff Bracket last season, will have given Mississippi State a lot of belief, especially as they had been set as the home underdog in that game.

It is a win that could look very good come the end of the season, but this is the start of a run of eight SEC games in succession and that is when the schedule does look extremely challenging.

The Bulldogs do have some experienced players on the roster, although the team lost valuable players from last season in the transfer portal. Despite those losses, the start made to the 2025 campaign will have given the Bulldogs a huge amount of belief, even if they are about to step up a level or two in terms of competition.

Running the ball against this Volunteers Defensive Line has proven to be a huge challenge in recent years and everything points to this being a strength of the unit once again. The Mississippi State Offensive Line have begun the season very well, but the schedule has helped and the expectation is that Quarter Back Blake Shapen is going to have to make plenty of plays with his arm to keep things moving.

Blake Shapen was the understudy at the position last season so the system is not something that will be unfamiliar to him and he has made a strong start. 884 passing yards with 7 Touchdown passes has to be respected, but playing from behind the chains will be a different test for the Quarter Back, as will the fact that he is likely to be under pressure from this Tennessee pass rush.

There have been one or two spaces to exploit in the Secondary, which will give Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs something to attack, but finding the consistency will be the test for the home underdog.

Mississippi State have produced some early solid numbers on the Defensive side of the ball, but the level of competition cannot be ignored.

In Week 5 they are facing one of the stronger teams in the SEC who are being led very competently by Quarter Back Joey Aguiar.

Everything begins on the Offensive Line though and this Volunteers team have piled up the yardage on the ground and while playing stronger opponents than they one they face on Saturday. Stopping the run was a huge issue for the Bulldogs Defensive Line last season and the Tennessee Volunteers are likely to pummel them in this one and make sure Joey Aguilar is in a much more comfortable position to make plays against the Secondary.

If they are playing in front of the chains as expected, the Bulldogs Secondary are going to find it very difficult to make the same kinds of plays as they have against weaker opponents. This should give Tennessee the opportunities to move the ball pretty comfortably for much of the afternoon and they can win this game and cover the spread.

In recent years the Bulldogs have been a pretty poor home underdog with a 3-9-1 record against the spread since the beginning of the 2021 season. They are 2-3 against the spread in that spot under Head Coach Jeff Lebby, while Tennessee finished 3-1 against the spread as the road favourite last season.

This is the first true road game of the season, which is always going to be a test of character, but the Volunteers are going into a Bye Week following this one and they can put everything into this game.

Being 0-1 in the SEC means there is some urgency too and the Volunteers are unlikely to overlook the hosts, who have made a perfect start to the 2025 season, which should lead to a Tennessee win by double digits.

BYU Cougars @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: These two teams were involved in a rare Conference Bowl Game at the end of last season and the BYU Cougars (3-0) blew out the Colorado Buffaloes (2-2). Head Coach Deion Sanders has downplayed the revenge angle and instead is motivated by trying to help the Buffaloes move back above 0.500, while this is also an important game for Colorado in the Big 12 having dropped their opening Conference game.

So much has changed for the Buffaloes from 2024 with some key players Drafted to play in the NFL and most expected a step back for the team after the 9-4 finish last time around. Only tie-breakers prevented the Buffaloes from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and perhaps even the College Football Playoff, but matching that record and run looks much more uncertain with the team in something of a transition.

The Buffaloes improved from 4 wins in Coach Prime's first season in charge to 9 wins in 2024, but a winning record might be seen as a success in 2025.

A home loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackes and a blowout road loss to the Houston Cougars has been the outcome for the Buffaloes when playing Power 4 Conference teams. While the BYU Cougars have not exactly had the toughest of schedules to open the season, this is going to be another stiff test for Colorado considering how good the Big 12 Conference contenders have looked.

Last season BYU were another team who finished 7-2 in Big 12 play, but they also missed out on the Championship Game on tie-breakers.

Motivation is high to go at least a step further in 2025 and the Cougars have some key Offensive players back, and that experience makes them a considerable threat.

The Offensive Line have ripped open some big running games in this unbeaten start to the season and they will be hugely encouraged by the yardage that the Buffaloes have given up on the ground. It looks like the Colorado Defensive Line is set for a step backwards compared with 2024 and the Cougars should be able to establish the ground game, which in turn should makes things that much more comfortable for Quarter Back Bear Bachmeier.

He will have time in the pocket and Chase Roberts has begun 2025 from where he left off last season and the road team will feel they can move the chains with plenty of consistency over the course of this game.

One of the key reasons the Cougars were able to have such a successful 2024 was the play of the Defensive unit and the early signs is that the 2025 unit is going to be just as tough.

They have clamped down on the run through the opening three games and that is going to be key for them against the Buffaloes as they look to force the Quarter Back to make the big plays for the home team. There has been an uncertainty around the position early in the season and so the Cougars will be really confident if they can have Colorado backed up into third and long spots.

Kaidon Salter is almost certainly going to be given the start, but Deion Sanders is not going to be worried about having to shift him out if the game plan is not being executed. The Quarter Back will have picked up some confidence from his play against the Wyoming Cowboys last time out, but Salter is facing a Cougars Secondary that has played the pass very well.

BYU have also gotten plenty of pass rush pressure up front and Colorado's Offensive Line may not allow Kaidon Salter, or any other Quarter Back, to have the time needed if they are in third and long spots. Throwing under pressure is very dangerous against the Cougars Defensive Backs and a turnover or two may just set the road team on the way to a win and a cover.

Deion Sanders is a huge motivator for the Colorado players and they are 9-5 against the spread when set as the underdog, although 0-2 this season.

They are 8-2 against the spread playing with the revenge factor and the Bowl Game defeat will not have been forgotten by anyone in Boulder.

However, this BYU team look like genuine Big 12 Championship contenders and they are 4-2 against the spread in the last six games when set as the road favourite. Imposing themselves at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball should give the Cougars the edge and they can win this one by at least a converted Touchdown margin.

MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Vanderbilt Commodores - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Texas A&M Aggies - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

College Football Week 5 Picks 2024 (Friday 27th September-Saturday 28th September)

Another Week in College Football is set to begin with an important Friday night game, while the majority of teams are beginning to get into Conference action.

Despite having four weeks of information, this still feels like a learning point of the season now that teams are moving out of the non-Conference setting and playing opponents of a higher level than they would have seen previously.

There are one or two of the spreads that came very close to being selected, but there is still a considerable amount of Football to be played and so having another week of information feels more important than taking any unnecessary risks.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC looks to have lost one of the pre-season contenders and some of the dark horses have failed to bolt out of the gate.

With that in mind, fans of the Conference will perhaps already looking ahead to a potential Championship Game involving the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes (4-0), although both of those teams know the importance of remaining focused.

Miami will be heading into a long road trip in Week 6 when visiting the California Golden Bears, but they are hosting a rival in Virginia Tech Hokies (2-2) who would love to play spoiler. Unfortunately for the Hokies, they have been beaten by Vanderbilt and Rutgers already this season and this is a huge step up with only the potentially poor playing conditions a likely equaliser on the night.

Hurricane Helene is not expected to make landfall in this part of Florida, but it could still be tougher conditions than usual for the Miami Hurricanes, especially in a game they are hosting. Excuses will not be made and especially not when so many others will be worrying about much bigger things than Football in other parts of the State, and all Miami can do is make sure they focused on producing their best efforts on the field.

They will have to be focused with the first four wins of the season coming against non-Conference opponents and none of those have really been that impressive. Blowing out the Florida Gators would have made the fans very happy, but the Gators have looked poor and Miami still have plenty to prove.

The Hurricanes do look solid on the Defensive side of the ball all things considered and the key to their success is right up front on the Defensive Line, which has been able to clamp down on the run and force Offenses to become a little predictable in their play.

It has been so important keeping teams in third and long spots and allowed the Hurricanes to unleash a fierce pass rush that has disrupted the passing game. Pressure up front is only good news for the Defensive Backs who do not have to lock down Receivers for too long and the Miami team have complemented one another on this side of the ball.

Virginia Tech have been a bit too inconsistent on the Offensive side of the ball to believe they are going to have a lot of success in this game. Looking after the ball and trying to play the field advantage will be an important approach to take, but Kyron Drones will know he is going to be throwing under pressure and into a Miami Secondary that has turned the ball over.

Any turnovers could really see the Miami Hurricanes take control of the game, but even long fields may not intimidate Cam Ward and an Offense making big headlines through the first month of the season.

The Quarter Back has shown he can make some plays with his legs, but has impressed with his arm and it does help that he is playing behind a Hurricanes Offensive Line that has been bullying opponents up front. They have helped Miami pile up some big yards on the ground and rip open some big runs, which is only going to bode well against this Hokies Defensive Line that has struggled against weaker Offensive Lines than the one they will be facing in this Conference game.

Pushing the ball on the ground should open up play-action opportunities for Cam Ward and he will likely have enough time to make his plays down the field. The Virginia Tech Secondary numbers have not been bad early in this season, but that is partly down to an inability to stop the run with a lot of consistency and the fact they have not faced a Quarter Back like the one they are dealing with on Friday.

Cam Ward has 14 Touchdown passes already this season with just 2 Interceptions and the Hokies have not made enough plays against the pass to believe the latter of those numbers is changed significantly. It should mean Ward has a chance to showcase his Heisman winning potential in a prime spot in Week 5 and the Miami Hurricanes may end up pulling away for a big win and cover.

Games between these rivals have been very competitive in recent years, but Miami had a couple of big wins over Virginia Tech in 2017 and 2018 and this Hurricanes team can make a statement and show why they should be in the National Championship contenders conversation.

Stanford Cardinal @ Clemson Tigers Pick: They may be holding the same record after three games and both the Clemson Tigers (2-1) and Stanford Cardinal (2-1) have opening ACC Conference wins on the board, but the overall outlook for these two teams still feels very different.

Despite the shellacking at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, the Clemson Tigers are amongst the favourites to reach the ACC Championship Game and push for a place in the College Football PlayOff later this year. The Miami Hurricanes may be their closest rival in the Conference and the Tigers are at home after a big win over the NC State Wolfpack, but they will not want to overlook the Cardinal, even if they are not as strong as other teams produced by Stanford in recent years.

Leaving the Pac-12 to join the ACC, the Stanford Cardinal have bounced back from a loss to the TCU Horned Frogs and they ended the Syracuse Orange unbeaten start to the season in Week 4.

It will give the team confidence, although they are facing an even stronger opponent and in a true road game, which can be tough for any team.

Ashton Daniels has taken over at Quarter Back for the Stanford Cardinal, but he will be keen to see the Offensive Line dictate things up front and then make things all the more comfortable for when Daniels drops back to throw. The numbers have not been that impressive when it comes to establishing the run, but Stanford may have a bit more joy against this Clemson Defensive Line and that will be important to ease some of the pressure on their Quarter Back.

It has been a mixed start to the season for Ashton Daniels who has thrown 4 Touchdown passes, but also 3 Interceptions. Being in third and manageable would just make sure Daniels does not feel he has to win this game on his arm and there are enough vulnerabilities in this Secondary to believe he can keep Stanford ticking over.

Third and long would be that much more difficult to convert for Ashton Daniels when you consider the turnovers that he has thrown and factor in the turnovers that the Clemson Defensive unit have been able to create.

The Cardinal will certainly want to make this a grind it out kind of game and keep a powerful Clemson Offense on the sidelines to stew. After the horrible overall performance against the Georgia Bulldogs, Clemson have looked very good with Cade Klubnik leading the way at Quarter Back.

He has already shown his character by now allowing the underpar Week 1 performance define him and Cade Klubnik is likely to have a very big game statistically. The Tigers match up pretty well with the Stanford Defensive unit and Klubnik should be able to exploit that by leading his team to another victory.

Last week the Tigers came in for us with a winning performance against the NC State Wolfpack and Clemson are likely going to find plenty of balance from their Offensive unit in this one. While the Stanford Defensive Line have been able to play the run pretty well, they will not have come up against a team with this kind of Offensive unit too often and so the Tigers have to feel they can establish the run effectively.

This would just make things that much easier for Cade Klubnik considering the massive holes that have been in the Secondary of the Cardinal. Teams are averaging almost 300 passing yards per game against them and it would not be a surprise at all if Klubnik was to reach that milestone.

He has been able to play turnover free Football and that is likely going to lead to another big win for the Tigers.

However, covering might be more challenging with a game against the Florida State Seminoles next up on deck, which is a natural Conference rival compared with Stanford even if the Seminoles have had a horrible start to 2024.

The Cardinal also look like they may be able to sustain a few Offensive drives and that may just chew up the clock for enough time to prevent a defeat by four scores. Avoiding turnovers will be important to the road team, but if they can do that, they can avoid a really embarrassing loss against one of the Conference favourites.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: It might only be Week 5 of the College Football season, but the stand out game comes from the SEC where so many of the leading National Championship contenders all face off.

While the Texas Longhorns may be the Number 1 Ranked team right now, the Georgia Bulldogs (3-0) and Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) have a huge rivalry within the SEC and one that has seen the victor go on and win the National Championship.

It is the Crimson Tide who have dominated the series of late, but Head Coach Nick Saban is no longer with the team and this is the first real test they will have faced in 2024. The blowout win at the Wisconsin Badgers is impressive, especially on the road, but the Georgia Bulldogs have a long unbeaten regular season record to protect and their blowout win over the Clemson Tigers in Week 1 is looking better and better week after week.

Motivation is on the side of Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs players who lost the SEC Championship Game against the Alabama Crimson Tide last year and that ultimately cost them the chance to win another National Championship. It is a decision that still bother fans of Georgia and they will be looking for redemption when playing in Tuscaloosa.

Both teams are coming into this one behind a Bye and it will have been important to get the preparation right.

You know the Defensive units will give any opponent problems, but the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are filled with talented, NFL calibre players on the Offense and that usually means they will find a way to scheme to success.

As mentioned, Alabama have had the better of the Georgia Bulldogs and have won eight of the last nine between them.

But it should also be mentioned that this is not simply the case of the Crimson Tide being the stronger team, because their last two wins over the Bulldogs have been as a significant underdog. This time they are not an underdog being given almost a Touchdown start, but Alabama are not used to being a home underdog in any situation and you just have to believe it will have been motivating them over the last fortnight.

Jalen Milroe had one or two questions to answer last year as he just struggled, but he made a strong end to the year and the Quarter Back has begun 2024 with a new found confidence. He has thrown 8 Touchdown passes and rushed for 6 more and it will be a tough task for the Bulldogs to control Jalen Milroe, even if the Defensive Line have been playing at a very strong level.

Like with so many of these top games, the Line of Scrimmage is going to be extremely important whoever is Offensively on the board. The Crimson Tide Offensive Line has played well, as has the Georgia Offensive Line, but it may be the Bulldogs who have a bit more success making big plays against the run.

Of course that alone will not slow down Jalen Milroe and the Quarter Back will just have to make sure he is focused on identifying where the Bulldogs pass rush pressure is coming from. Being a little stronger against the run can be backed up by the pass rush pressure generated and it may just lead to one or two Alabama drives stalling without being able to add seven points to the scoreboard.

The feeling is that the Bulldogs might be able to offer their own Quarter Back, Carson Beck, a bit more time all around.

Georgia's Offensive Line may be able to do just enough to keep the team in a position to be in front of the chains and that may give Carson Beck the chance he needs to make plays against this Secondary. Throwing the ball against this Alabama Secondary has been tough work for the opening three opponents, but Beck should be given time by his Offensive Line and that may just see the Bulldogs moving into a position to win and cover, while earning revenge for the SEC Championship Game defeat in 2023.

Carson Beck has been efficient rather than spectacular and that could mean Georgia are happy to play the field position at times, but it may be what they need to start turning this series back in their favour and to push towards the College Football PlayOff.

The struggles against the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 3 might have actually done Georgia a favour to remind them of the hard week needed every week, and Kirby Smart can win this battle against Kalen DeBoer, who has yet to face a test like this in his very early career as the Head Coach of Alabama.

MY PICKS: Miami Hurricanes - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Stanford Cardinal + 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Utah Utes - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

NFL Week 3 Picks 2021 (September 23-27)

Another Thursday Night Football has come around much quicker than anticipated and it is a week in which I am not able to write out a long post for the Week 3 selections in the NFL.

I should have better analysis for the games to be played on Sunday and Monday if there are any Picks to be made from those, but the posts should be getting much longer once this weekend is out of the way.

Week 2 was at least not a losing one in terms of the selections, but some late drama did go against the selections which have meant it was not the kind of bounce back week I wanted. Hopefully there will be a little more bounce of the ball in my favour with the Week 3 Picks as I look to get back to winning ways.

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Pick: Before the season started, many would have tipped up the Houston Texans (1-1) to be one of the weaker teams in the NFL. They may have benefited from the early schedule which allowed the Texans to beat Divisional rivals Jacksonville at home, but Houston were not able to stay with the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and have had a massive setback to their team out of that defeat.

Losing the game was not a major surprise, but it was disappointing for Houston and Tyrod Taylor that he has picked up yet another injury when earning the starting job in the NFL. It has proved costly for him at his last two teams, but Houston have made a decision that they will not be using Deshaun Watson and it means the Texans will be putting in Davis Mills at Quarter Back.

A rookie going in at Quarter Back having been selected early in the Draft is one thing, but Davis Mills is seen as a project and he struggled in his limited time on the field in Week 2. To make matters tougher, Mills is not surrounded by a lot of talent and the Thursday Night Football slot means there is not a lot of time for Houston to get him up to speed.

Davis Mills is not going to be helped by going up against the Carolina Panthers (2-0) Defensive unit that has shut down the New York Jets, expectedly, and then the New Orleans Saints as the home underdog. Like Houston, expectations are not that great in Carolina, but the team have made a positive start to the season and they are likely going to head into this Week 3 game knowing they have a big opportunity in front of them.

It is the Defensive unit that is making big plays for the Panthers and it is very difficult to imagine Houston being able to break the shackles that they have put onto opponents in the early stage of the NFL season. Davis Mills is unlikely to be given a lot of support on the ground and the pressure will be on him to make plays against a Secondary which has been in top form, while the Carolina Defensive Line has caused havoc in the backfield for the two opponents they have beaten.

The strong performances on this side of the ball have meant Carolina have not needed to score a lot of points, but Sam Darnold has played well enough and I am not too worried that this is the first road game he is playing for the Panthers. The Quarter Back will be glad to be out of New York and he is young enough to stamp his spot somewhere in the NFL, although Sam Darnold is going to have to show some growth with his new team.

This looks a good match up for Carolina Offensively and they should be able to get Christian McCaffrey going from Running Back despite the early Offensive Line issues. The Panthers have been strong enough in pass protection, but they are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry as a team on the ground, although this feels a good chance to get back on track considering how ineffective the Texans Defensive Line has been,

Christian McCaffrey is also a serious threat catching the ball out of the back field and I do think he will have a very big game. Sam Darnold can use the Running Back to open the field up and he should have plenty of time to hit Receivers and light up the scoreboard, relatively speaking at least.

There is no doubting that it is difficult to back the Carolina Panthers as a road favourite, let alone one with this many points to cover. They have a 7-0 record against the spread in their last seven road games, but the Panthers have been a dog in a large majority of them and they have a poor record when set as the road underdog.

In saying that, I do think Thursday Night Football favours the better team and I have little reason to believe that the Panthers are significantly stronger than the Texans. Having a rookie Quarter Back who doesn't look ready for this level is a major problem for Houston who are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve Thursday night games.

Sam Darnold is a Quarter Back with a pretty terrible early record as a favourite, but he helped the Carolina Panthers cover in that spot in Week 1 and I think his Defensive unit can spark another strong win here.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Pick: Two desperate teams will be meeting in Week 3 in the NFL and avoiding falling into a 0-3 hole has to be the only thing on the mind for the players. The New York Giants (0-2) suffered an agonising defeat to Divisional rivals Washington in Week 2 when an offside call gave their hosts a second chance to hit a game winning Field Goal.

It feels like the Giants have been in this position far too often in recent seasons and there is some pressure on Head Coach Joe Judge as they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons (0-2). The Falcons are off a defeat to a Divisional rival too, but they played much better in Week 2 compared with the opening loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, although the Super Bowl window looks to have closed for Matt Ryan with this team.

Both teams are off losing records, but there is more pressure on the home team with the Falcons feeling like they are going to have a transitional year after losing some key players. Matt Ryan still has some talent around him, but nothing like the year the Falcons reached the Super Bowl and somehow blew the chance to beat the New England Patriots.

Injuries on both sides of the ball have not been helping Atlanta and the Offensive Line has been struggling which makes it hard to believe they are going to be able to run the ball consistently, even against the Giants Defensive Line which has allowed 5 yards per carry. Matt Ryan has faced some pressure up front too with teams able to pin back their ears without a strong running game to complement the Quarter Back and that has seen Ryan rushed into making some bad throws.

There are some holes in this New York Secondary which could be exposed by Matt Ryan and the Giants pass rush has not been as strong as the home team would have liked. That should encourage Atlanta who do have the likes of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts to catch those passes and at least help the Falcons push the ball down the field.

At the same time, it would be a big disappointment for New York fans if the Giants are not able to have considerable success on the Offensive side of the ball and they have had a few more days to prepare for this Week 3 game. The likes of Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay should be ready to play and the Giants are off a big Offensive outing against the Washington Football Team.

Saquon Barkley had a solid day and having a few extra days to prepare his body for this one should see him have another big game. The Falcons Defensive Line have struggled to clamp down on the run and I expect Barkley to set the Giants up in third and manageable spots throughout this game which will help Daniel Jones out no end.

The Quarter Back has yet to throw an Interception, but Daniel Jones has had ball security issues, although I am not anticipating too much of that in this game with Barkley setting the Offense up. Daniel Jones should have more time to step back and make his plays with the team in third and short spots and the Atlanta Secondary is banged up and giving up far too many big plays.

Jones should be the latest to do that and I think it gives the Giants the edge in this game between two teams looking to win their first game in 2021. The balance on the Offensive side of the ball and the additional rest between Week 2 and Week 3 benefits the Giants over the Falcons.

It is not exactly encouraging trying to back Daniel Jones to Quarter Back a favourite to a victory, but this looks a good opportunity to do that. Atlanta are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games where they have been set as the underdog, while the New York Giants are 11-1-1 against the spread in their last thirteen after a Thursday Night game.

Laying less than a Field Goal with the home team looks the way to go.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Super Bowl win with Peyton Manning at Quarter Back feels a long time ago for the Denver Broncos (2-0) and this is a franchise which has become used to losing seasons. Having a competent Quarter Back would have helped a Broncos team known for their Defensive strength and Teddy Bridgewater has made a good start for them with the pressure on Head Coach Vic Fangio to make progress in his third season with the Broncos.

Denver would have been expected to beat the likes of the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars and they have performed really well on both sides of the ball to do that. Now they face a New York Jets (0-2) team who have dropped both games played this season and who are once again in a transitional part of their history having fallen into the basement of the AFC East.

This is also the opening home game of the season for the Denver Broncos so there has to be a focus on the game which may have been lacking considering how much stronger they have looked than the New York Jets. It is the only concern I really have for the Broncos who should have the Defensive unit to give rookie Quarter Back Zach Wilson plenty to think about.

Zach Wilson had a really hard game against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now has to face someone with the Defensive mindset of Vic Fangio which suggests another learning experience is heading the Quarter Back's way. He has not been helped by the fact that the Jets Offensive Line has struggled to get team ahead of the chains by finding room for the team to move the ball on the ground.

They are unlikely to have a lot more success against this Denver Defensive Line who have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry so far this season.

It doesn't help that the New York Jets have offered little protection to Zach Wilson and I expect the Broncos to put plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back throughout this game. The Denver Secondary will be even tougher to throw against with Wilson facing different looks up front as the Broncos bring some pressure on him and it will be difficult for the New York Jets to score more than the 14 points they scored against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1.

However, this is a big spread and the big question has to be how likely Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Offense can score the points needed to beat out a double digit spread. Unlike his counterpart, Teddy Bridgewater is likely to be supported by Melvin Gordon running the ball behind the Denver Offensive Line and I do think that will give Bridgewater the confidence to throw the ball down the field.

Teddy Bridgewater avoids making big mistakes and running the ball effectively should mean he has time to expose the Jets Secondary, while his Receivers are likely to be good enough to make the big plays for him. The Broncos Defensive unit could set up some short fields for the Offense and I do think they can score 23 or more points for a third game in a row, which should be good enough to earn the win and the cover.

The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in the series between these teams.

Denver are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite, covering twice this season in that spot, while the New York Jets are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the road underdog.

The Jets are also 4-18 against the spread when they are playing with revenge against a non-Division opponent, while they are 1-15 against the spread in their last sixteen when set as the road underdog of less than 17 points against an opponent who has won straight up and covered the spread in their last game as Denver have done.

The spread would have been 5.5 points if you had selected this game to bet on in Vegas before the season started, but I think it has moved as it should have done and Denver can underline their strong start to 2021.

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: The early season schedule suggested it would be difficult for either of these AFC teams to make a perfect start to 2021, but the Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) have done that by beating two AFC North teams. On the other side, the Miami Dolphins (1-1) have split two Divisional games and will be looking to bounce back behind a back up Quarter Back in Week 3.

Tua Tagovailoa continues to be a divisive figure for the Miami fans who have yet to see the second year Quarter Back prove that he can stay healthy, let alone become a franchise Quarter Back at a position Miami have struggled to fill ever since Dan Marino retired. Jacoby Brissett will be given the keys to the Offensive unit instead of Tagovailoa this week with the latter banged up and the Dolphins are looking to recover from the big loss to the Buffalo Bills.

This will be a big test for Jacoby Brissett if only because the Miami Offensive unit has looked really inconsistent. The Offensive Line has struggled massively and the Las Vegas Defensive Line will feel they can at least get after the big Quarter Back, although I do think Brissett is a capable mover with the ball in his hand which just spark something of a rushing attack.

It has been possible to run the ball against the Raiders and this may at least give the Dolphins a chance to get something going in this one, which can only aid the back up behind Center. Jacoby Brissett has plenty of starting experience at Quarter Back with the Indianapolis Colts to believe any kind of rushing Offensive help will get a big game from him.

The Raiders will be able to get some pressure if Miami are in third and long spots, but the Secondary has struggled at times and the Dolphins have a strong Receiving corps that are waiting for some consistent throws to come their way. Las Vegas do not have the same kind of Defensive unit as New England and Buffalo and I do think the Miami Dolphins may also be able to take advantage of the spot.

What I mean by that is that the Raiders are off two very good looking wins as the underdog and the expectation is now on their shoulders as favourites to win this one in their new Stadium. They are also facing a Divisional game on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and so you have to wonder if they are going to perhaps overlook their opponent in Week 3.

You can only respect the way the Raiders have won their opening two games, but Derek Carr and company have not faced a Defensive unit as good as the one they will be seeing this time around. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers units are banged up, but the Miami Dolphins are still playing at a high level on this side of the ball even if the 35 points given up to Buffalo in Week 3 suggests otherwise.

Las Vegas have struggled to run the ball all season and Josh Jacobs may not be able to playin Week 3, and I am sure Miami would love to see Derek Carr taking his chances throwing in their strength in the Secondary. The Quarter Back has played well early in the season and there is some talent in the Receiving corps which cannot be underestimated, but the Dolphins may be able to at least pressure Derek Carr and the Secondary has not allowed teams to throw against them without the fear of turning the ball over.

The Raiders should be motivated after losing late in the season here to the Miami Dolphins last season and they will want to set the record straight, but it is not an ideal spot for them having won their first two games.

Miami are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven against the Raiders, while they have very strong trends off a straight up loss as well as being 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the road underdog.

As I mentioned, this is the first time the Raiders will be favourites this season which changes their mindset compared to the opening two games. Las Vegas are 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the favourite and I think the Miami Dolphins can be backed to cover.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The big bounce back took a little more time than they may have imagined, but the Green Bay Packers (1-1) have got back to 0.500 in what looks like a weak NFC North. They are back in front of the primetime cameras again on Sunday after the Monday Night Football win, but this should be a much tougher game than the win over the Detroit Lions.

This time the Packers have to head out West to take on the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) who have a perfect record in a much tougher Division, although their two wins have been against the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. The yardage suggests there has been a little bit of fortune behind the 49ers and you also can't ignore the fact that San Francisco have a very big Divisional game coming up in Week 4 against the Seattle Seahawks.

In saying that, not many would have forgotten how the Green Bay Packers came to this Stadium in 2020 and crushed the 49ers who had been banged up considerably. That is going to give San Francisco plenty of motivation ahead of this game, but there is some similarities with last season as they are missing key players on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco have gotten the better of Green Bay plenty of times in recent seasons and much of that has come down a strong running game, but it will be interesting to see if this team can take the same advantage. The Packers Defensive Line have struggled, but San Francisco's Running Back corps have been hurt by the loss of Raheem Mostert and they have only produced 3.8 yards per carry behind this Offensive Line.

Kyle Shanahan is a fine Offensive mind so I would not be surprised if he looks to make short passes and quick screens to the fast Receivers San Francisco have, and use that instead of the rush. The Packers Secondary haven't played too badly, but they have allowed some big throws to be made against them so this is an opportunity for Jimmy Garropolo at Quarter Back.

Being banged up Offensively is one thing, but San Francisco are also hurt on the Defensive side of the ball and that may not be good news against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who looked much better on Monday Night Football. However, Green Bay's Offensive Line have been hurt and I do think Rodgers is going to struggle to get a lot of time in the pocket if Aaron Jones cannot help by setting Green Bay up on the ground.

The Packers have not rushed the ball nearly as effectively as they would have liked so you do wonder if they can take advantage of the 49ers issues on the Defensive Line. I do think Jones could a threat catching the ball out of the backfield though, as he was when scoring three Receiving Touchdowns on Monday, and this San Francisco Secondary have taken a step back from last season.

San Francisco have managed to get the better of Green Bay in recent times, but they are a pretty poor home favourite to back and I think Aaron Rodgers will not want to lay a dud on the road as they did in Week 1. Last season the 49ers were 0-5 against the spread as the home favourite, while Green Bay are 5-3 against the spread as the road underdog with their current Head Coach.

Having a full Field Goal start may be enough for the Green Bay Packers here and I think they can be backed on Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: In recent years the NFC East has lost some of the power which saw teams from this Division win Super Bowl titles, but the four all remain very popular and it is no surprise to see a Divisional game placed in one of the primetime slots. On Monday Night Football in Week 3 we have the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) hosting the Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) with the winning team taking the lead in this Division.

The Dallas Cowboys have had back to back road games to open the season so this is the home opener for the team. The narrow loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then the narrow win over the Los Angeles Chargers has helped the Dallas Cowboys back up to 0.500, while their opponents Philadelphia have opened the season with a big win on the road at the Atlanta Falcons before losing to the San Francisco 49ers after making far too many mistakes in Week 2.

Injuries have piled up for the Eagles since then, but they are still expected to have enough talent to keep this close even if they are not able to win the game outright. They are helped by the fact that the Dallas Cowboys are pretty banged up early in the season too, although home advantage with the fans back in big numbers in this Stadium for the first time in just shy of two years has to be a huge motivation for the Cowboys players.

Dak Prescott missed much of 2020, but he has come back and looked like has not missed a beat, while he was given a huge amount of support by Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard on the ground in the win over the Chargers. That balance is key for the Cowboys considering they are without Michael Gallup and have a less than 100% Amari Cooper taking the field for Dak Prescott to find with his passes when he does step back to throw.

Running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line has been difficult so far this season, but they have lost some key players with the most notable being Brandon Graham. Others on this side of the ball could also be missing on Monday Night Football and that may see the Dallas Offensive Line, which is also not at full health, able to pick up from where they left off last week.

I expect the Dallas Cowboys to have success Offensively though and they have managed to do that against the Buccaneers and Chargers who both look to have decent Defensive units. With the Eagles being without some key players on this side of the ball, the Dallas Offensive Line could win in the trenches and at least see the home team moving the ball with some consistency.

However, I still think it is difficult to back the Dallas Cowboys to cover this number and that is largely down to the fact that they have not been in this situation so far this season. Both games have come under little pressure as they have been set as the underdog, but the fans will arrive with some real expectations in Week 3 and the Cowboys Defensive unit is one that has only been able to slow teams down when making some big plays.

Turnovers are an important part of any NFL game and Dallas have been able to make some huge Defensive plays which have kept them in games they have played. Even then, games have been very close with just 5 points combined deciding the first two games Dallas have played and the Eagles Offense has moved the ball well enough to believe they can score enough points in this one.

Injury is also playing a part on this side of the ball for the Eagles who could be down a couple of Linemen, but they will feel still believe there is enough paths for them to travel to keep the ball moving. The Cowboys have some issues on the Defensive Line which has seen them give up some big yards on the ground and I think the Eagles will be able to at least establish the ground Offense to give Jalen Hurts some strong support.

Jalen Hurts is now the starting Quarter Back in Philadelphia, but the fans will turn on him if he has another outing like the one in Week 2 when his mistakes proved costly in a narrow loss. He should have a better day in this one against this Dallas Secondary, but Hurts has to be aware of the turnovers the Cowboys are creating and has to make sure he is not telegraphing his throws.

The Quarter Back should have plenty of time in the pocket with the Eagles likely to have some success moving the ball on the ground and that should give Philadelphia every chance of keeping this one close even if they lose.

A backdoor cover would not be a massive surprise, but they will have to snap the streak in this series which has seen the home team cover in each of the last five between Dallas and Philadelphia.

Dallas were only 1-7 against the spread in their eight games in that spot under Mike McCarthy in 2020, and you do have to wonder if this is going to increase the pressure on them to perform. The Eagles have covered as the road favourite in a straight up win in Week 1 and I think Philadelphia can make enough plays to keep this Divisional game close in front of the wide television audience that will tune in to Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Detroit Lions + 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)