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Boxing Picks 2026- Johnny Fisher vs Michael Pirotton (Saturday 26th September)

After the back and forth over a number of weeks and months, an announcement was made that Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua would finally be mee...

Showing posts with label September 20th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label September 20th. Show all posts

Sunday, 20 September 2026

World Series of Darts Finals Day 4 Picks 2026 (Sunday 20th September)

The title will be handed out in Amsterdam on Sunday and that means the Quarter Finals are played in the Afternoon Session before the Semi Final and Final is played later in the day.

Eight players are still competing and all will believe they have what it takes to win this event and use the momentum to kick onto the big Ranking events coming up.

However, Luke Littler remains the player to beat after sneaking through the Second Round with a final Leg decider win over Nathan Aspinall.

Any selections from the Semi Final matches will be added to this thread.


Ross Smith-Josh Rock both over 4.5 180s: This looks a really good Quarter Final on the form shown over the last couple of days, although it is no surprise that Ross Smith has been placed as the favourite.

His form has been stronger for some time compared with Josh Rock, although the latter is a Premier League participant and looks to be peaking as we get into the final quarter of the season.

This should make for a very competitive contest and two big maximum hitters can both produce at least five each on the day.

All players will want to keep something in the tank for the remainder of the tournament to be completed later, but these two are capable of pushing one another and that could lead to a high quality match.


James Wade v Gerwyn Price: We all know how good Gerwyn Price is and the layers will never underestimate him, but it is James Wade who has gotten the better of the 2026 meetings.

A couple of those wins have been across a longer format and the Englishman looks a good underdog to back considering his recent form.

Gerwyn Price may feel he can outscore James Wade, but the latter sticks around and the superior finishing can see him swing this Quarter Final in his favour.

Nothing ever comes easy against either of these players, but Wade looks an underdog who can show his bite is just as effective as his bark.


Luke Littler to win & over 6.5 180s v Jonny Clayton: Scraping through the Second Round makes Luke Littler that much more dangerous as the World Series of Darts Finals wind down on Sunday.

Once again Littler has shown he can produce under intense pressure, while opponents have perhaps not had the belief they need in order to upset the World Number 1.

Jonny Clayton may have more than most having picked up wins over Luke Littler in the Premier League, but the more recent head to head has swung back in favour of the youngster.

It is incredibly difficult to beat Luke Littler over the longer formats and he can do enough to secure both parts of this double put together.

MY PICKS: Ross Smith & Josh Rock Over 4.5 180s Each @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
James Wade @ 2.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Luke Littler to Win & Over 6.5 180s @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

World Series Finals: 7-6, + 0.73 Units (13 Units Staked, + 5.62% Yield)

Thursday, 17 September 2026

NFL Week 2 Picks 2026 (Thursday 17th September-Monday 21st September)

No one will be placing too much stock into a Week 1 performance, but there is no doubt that teams will be feeling much better at 1-0 rather than 0-1.

Week 2 offers an opportunity to bounce back, but it is also a developing season and that means the key is to avoid falling too far behind those who are going to be pushing for the Playoff.

Thursday Night Football kicks off Week 2 with a big non-Conference game, but there are plenty of good looking games to be played across the weekend.


Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Thursday Night Football is a feature of the NFL regular season and Week 2 of the 2026 season will see the Buffalo Bills (1-0) open their new home against the Detroit Lions (1-0).

Both teams earned wins in Week 1, although they came in very different fashion.

The Buffalo Bills won on the road against the Houston Texans who are another AFC team expected to push towards the Playoff and it is all the more impressive when you think of the issues Josh Allen has had when facing Houston in the past.

New Head Coach Joe Brady has to be really happy with what he saw from the Bills Offensively, but he will also be aware that there has to be some improvement Defensively if Buffalo are finally going to crack through and reach the Super Bowl.

The Detroit Lions were bigger favourites than the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, but they needed Overtime and then a stop on a two point play to earn the victory against the New Orleans Saints. This is a team that has played well under Head Coach Dan Campbell and one that steps up when they are set as the underdog, but a short week after an Overtime game to open the season places the Lions in a difficult spot.

However, they have to be happy with the way the Offensive Line played in opening up the running lanes and the Lions are going to look to keep the Bills quiet on the sidelines by handing the ball to Jahmyr Gibbs.

Last season the Bills Defensive Line struggled to stop the run, but they have made an encouraging start to the 2026 season. This is a big test for that Line to see where they stand, but failing to stop or slow the run would open up the Secondary to be attacked by Jared Goff and the Detroit passing game.

If the Bills can rush the Quarter Back as they did last week, that will help, but the Detroit Lions should feel they can have some success in Buffalo's new home.

Of course you have to expect plenty of success from Josh Allen and the Buffalo Offensive unit.

There was little wrong with the way the Lions Defensive Line played up front against the run in the win over New Orleans, but the Secondary were banged up last season and Detroit's Defensive Backs struggled in Week 1. Allowing the Saints to put up almost 400 passing yards is not ideal preparation for the Buffalo Bills, although the Lions will feel the pass rush can get into the backfield and at least force the Quarter Back to go through his reads that much quicker than he may want.

Even then, Josh Allen and company should be comfortable moving the ball and this could end up being another shootout as was the case when the teams met in December 2024.

That ended with both teams surpassing the 40 point mark in a game played in Detroit and both Offenses have to believe they can move the ball with confidence in this Week 2 clash in 2026.

The short week should make it that much more difficult for the Defensive units to make the adjustments needed after the issues in Week 1 and that should allow Jared Goff and Josh Allen to lead their team to plenty of successful drives and these two teams may end up surpassing the total points line set.


Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: Week 1 of the NFL season concluded with three NFC North teams opening at 1-0 and the Minnesota Vikings (1-0) are the reason that the Green Bay Packers were the only team that failed to open with a win.

Since then, the Detroit Lions have dropped to 1-1 and that does mean either the Vikings or the Chicago Bears (1-0) can finish up Week 2 leading the Division as the only unbeaten team (assuming this game will not finish in a tie).

The Vikings were perhaps a little fortunate that the Green Bay Packers capitulated as they did in Week 1 and they will be aware that they will need to be a lot better to beat a Chicago Bears team that have been speaking excitedly about the Offensive unit before the season had begun. An early statement was made by Caleb Williams and the Bears when scoring 59 points in a road win over 2025 NFC South Champions Carolina Panthers, while also putting up over 550 Offensive yards.

No one associated with the Bears can expect to see that kind of output every week, but the Quarter Back has been speaking confidently about the standards Chicago want to set.

They did whatever they wanted against the Carolina Panthers, but this should be a more challenging game against a Minnesota team that had focused on improving the Defensive personnel. Last week the Vikings Defensive Line were able to win at the Line of Scrimmage and prevent the Green Bay Packers from getting consistency from the run game and they will be looking to at least slow a Chicago team that were picking up huge yards on the ground.

However, Caleb Williams will have taken note of the holes that Jordan Love attacked in the Vikings Secondary and the Quarter Back can pick up from there.

Caleb Williams is likely going to be put under some pressure if the team are not able to keep him in third and manageable positions on the field, but he has shown he can move out of the pocket and continue to make plays down the field. Avoiding turnovers is key, but the Bears should be confident they can move the ball with some consistency and that will put the pressure on Minnesota to try and keep up on the scoreboard.

Brian Flores will have his Defensive unit make some plays, but they will need those turnovers to make things easier for an Offense that is going to be led by Carson Wentz rather than Kyler Murray.

A concussion has forced Murray out, but the Minnesota Vikings have an inexperienced Quarter Back coming into the lineup and one who had over 1200 passing yards with 6 Touchdown passes last season.

239 total yards were produced by the Vikings last week as they took advantage of the mistakes made by the Green Bay Packers, but that is asking a lot for that to happen again.

Carson Wentz did have a good game at Quarter Back and the Vikings have talented Receivers who will have seen the Chicago Secondary struggle to make plays last week and that will offer the road team encouragement. The Vikings can also expect a bit more balance in the Offensive play as they are expected to establish the run against a Bears Defensive Line that struggled last season and who have opened up the 2026 season by allowing the Panthers to pick up big yards on the ground.

The Bears will be playing with some revenge on their mind having lost the home opener at Soldier Field to the Minnesota Vikings last year, but they will have a lot of respect for this Divisional rival.

Nothing ever comes easy in the NFL and Chicago cannot expect to be as strong as they were in Week 1, but they may still do enough to force a couple of mistakes from this Vikings Offense and stall some drives. That may be enough to give the Bears the edge and they may just edge past this spread set to move to 2-0 in the Division.


Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: If you know anything about Baker Mayfield, you can guarantee that he has been looking forward to this Week 2 game as soon as the schedule came out in May.

He was the incumbent Quarter Back with the Cleveland Browns (0-1) when the team decided to make a huge trade to bring in Deshaun Watson and that led to Baker Mayfield leaving the team and then ultimately end up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1). The Quarter Back has led Tampa Bay to the Playoffs in 2023 and 2024, but injuries made it very tough for Baker Mayfield in 2025, although the decision made by the Browns continues to be one that has them on the wrong side of the trade.

Both teams are looking to bounce back and Baker Mayfield vs Deshaun Watson will be leading the headlines, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a lot more competitive in the Week 1 defeat than the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns Defense may have lost Myles Garrett, but they still have a lot of quality on that side of the field, although winning games will mean needing more from the Quarter Back.

Time definitely feels like it is ticking on the Watson era at Cleveland and it would not be a huge surprise if there is a Quarter Back change during this game if he continues to struggle. Poor decisions were made in the loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars and you do have to wonder if Deshaun Watson will ever reach the levels he had shown with the Houston Texans before the controversy from his personal life ended up impacting his play on the field.

Deshaun Watson has to be better, as he will admit, but he will need support after the Offensive Line struggled in Jacksonville- that was not solely the case in pass protection, but the Browns did not open up the running lanes like the Quarter Back would have wanted and that puts all the pressure on Watson.

Failing to hold onto the ball is on Deshaun Watson, as is the Interception thrown, but there will be some opportunities for him to make plays against this Secondary. However, that will also need his supporting cast to step up and it could be a tough day again on the road for the Cleveland Browns.

They can at least point to the Defensive unit as being able to keep them in this game, but a balanced Tampa Bay approach could still keep Cleveland on their toes.

Last week the Buccaneers showed that balance against the Cincinnati Bengals, although they made too many mistakes on this side of the ball and that ultimately cost them. Cleaning those up should make things easier for the home team, although they will also want to see improvement from the Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Baker Mayfield.

Piling up the points against this Browns team will not be easy, but creating short fields would help and you just know Baker Mayfield is not going to want his team to ease off the throttle if they are in a position to score.

Cleveland cannot really be expected to be as poor as they were in Week 1, but even some improvement may not be enough to keep this game much more competitive when all is said and done. The whole of the Buccaneers team should be motivated as they bid to bounce back from an opening defeat and led by a Quarter Back with a point to prove and that should give Tampa Bay a chance to cover this wide spread.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titans Pick: The opening schedule for the Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) looks pretty testing, but this perhaps the game that looks 'easiest' on paper and it is really important for the team to find a way to motivate themselves.

After opening with a Divisional win, the Eagles will be facing the Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams and then travel to London after Week 2 and that means playing in three high-profile spots. With that in mind, it can be easy for players to overlook a team like the Tennessee Titans (0-1) who finished with a 3-14 record in 2025 and who have already been beaten at home by the New York Jets.

A new Head Coach will be hoping he is going to be given some time to help turn things around for the Titans, but Robert Saleh will know he needs some positive signs to just ensure the team back him. In recent years, the Titans have not really been patient with the Head Coach employed, and back to back three win seasons will be hard to surpass considering the schedule and the Division in which they play.

Robert Saleh will need more from Cam Ward at Quarter Back if he is going to guide Tennessee to at least four wins to show some progress, but the sophomore player has to develop quickly. Last season saw some mixed performances from Ward in his rookie season, but there will be a real disappointment about the Week 1 performance from the Quarter Back who threw for just 140 yards against the Jets.

There had been some help offered by the Offensive Line when they set up to run block- the Titans will want to have more than the fourteen attempts from Week 1, but have to be encouraged by picking up almost 5 yards per game. Doing that against this Eagles Defensive Line will be challenging, especially if Cam Ward does not give Philadelphia something more to respect in the passing game.

Last week the Eagles Secondary began the season in good form and it may be difficult for Cam Ward to have a much stronger game than he managed in the loss to the Jets. One positive is that Ward may have more time in the pocket when he does step back to throw, but even that may not be enough reason to believe he can lead the Titans to a lot more successes than they had in the opening defeat.

Philadelphia will definitely be more confident in their ability to establish the run with consistency, although they have lost a key piece of the Line when Landon Dickerson was placed on IR. Those changes will perhaps take some time bedding in and that could allow the Titans to have success at the Line of Scrimmage having rebuilt that part of the Defense around Jeffery Simmons.

Despite that, the Jets were able to get things going on the ground and the Eagles will feel they still have enough about them to do the same.

Jalen Hurts can move the ball with his legs from the Quarter Back position and is still backed up by Saquon Barkley and that may keep the Eagles in front of the chains.

The Quarter Back will be aware that the passing game will be another work in progress after the Eagles traded away AJ Brown, although this whole part of the Offense can be opened up by establishing the run. DeVonta Smith is a very solid Receiver, but it is important for the Eagles to find a consistent performer opposite him if they are going to have a big season.

There should be opportunities for the Eagles to make plays in the passing game and that gives them the edge on the road.

Tennessee will be expecting a much stronger performance after the disappointing effort in Week 1, but they may not be able to get that burst from the Offensive side of the ball that will be needed to earn an upset.

Instead it is perhaps where the Titans will come up short again and that could allow the Philadelphia Eagles to win this one by around a Touchdown mark.


Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: If you were to say that one of these AFC West teams would be heading into the Week 2 Divisional clash at 1-0, most would have suggested the Los Angeles Chargers (0-1) would be that team. Instead it is the Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) who travel to the City of Angels unbeaten thanks to a comfortable success over the Miami Dolphins on the same day the Los Angeles Chargers were inexplicably losing at home against the Arizona Cardinals.

The Division is one of the most competitive in the NFL and so the defeat suffered by the Chargers will have really hurt.

The next four games ahead of the Bye Week will see the Los Angeles Chargers face Buffalo, Seattle, Denver and Kansas City and so there is a real pressure on the team to bounce back immediately from the disappointment of Week 1. Back to back eleven win seasons meant the Chargers came into the 2026 season with big expectations on the shoulders of the players to take the next step and have a deep impact in the Playoffs, and that does mean the team need a response.

Las Vegas will make the short journey to Los Angeles in confident mood, but this is a team that is transitioning and that means avoiding throwing Fernando Mendoza straight into action in his rookie season. He was the top Pick in the NFL Draft, but the Raiders will begin the season with Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back and new Head Coach Klint Kubiak has to be really happy with the start made by his team.

This is a big step up for the Raiders who have won seven games across the last two seasons, but who will be looking to surpass the three wins secured in 2025.

Running the ball is going to be tough against this Chargers Defensive Line and that will put a bit more pressure on Kirk Cousins, who had a much more comfortable match up last week.

It is expected that Brock Bowers will miss another game, which is a significant blow for the Raiders passing game, while it is not being disrespectful to say the team are missing a lot of standout Receivers outside of the Tight End. This did not matter against the Dolphins, but Kirk Cousins did not have to do a lot from the Quarter Back position and the veteran may find it tough to exploit the Chargers Secondary without consistent players to throw to.

Kirk Cousins made a couple of mistakes in the win over Miami, and those could be much more costly in a game like this one.

The Raiders have to be prepared to be facing a Chargers team that will have had criticism ringing in their ears following the Week 1 defeat to the Cardinals, but the home fans will expect a reaction.

Justin Herbert leads the Offensive unit that has a new Co-Ordinator in Mike McDaniel, but they did not seem to be in sync in Week 1, which was a real disappointment.

Everything begins at the Offensive Line after the Chargers struggled to establish the run with any consistency in the opening game and that has to change to just open up the playbook for the new Offensive Co-Ordinator to get the best out of the Quarter Back. Much more will be expected of Omarion Hampton and the Offensive Line and they can show a lot more life in this game.

Doing so should make things pretty comfortable for Justin Herbert and the Quarter Back will be looking to take more care of the ball.

One concern for the home team has to be the performance of the Offensive Line to give Justin Herbert time to allow routes to develop down the field and that has to be improved. This is especially the case against the Raiders, who were able to break into the backfield relentlessly in the win over the Dolphins, although it should always be pointed out how poor Miami looked.

There should be some urgency about the Los Angeles Chargers performance and they have won the last four games against this AFC West rival.

It would be a huge surprise if Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has not gotten into his players and cannot extract a reaction from them, while the Las Vegas Raiders are missing the best Receiver and may struggle to move the ball with a lot of consistency. That could come together to see the Chargers secure a solid win and get themselves ready for a four game run that may determine how this season will shape up for them.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills-Detroit Lions Over 54.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 1: 2-4-1, - 2.23 Units (7 Units Staked, - 31.86% Yield)

Friday, 19 September 2025

College Football Week 4 Picks 2025 (Saturday 20th September)

The majority of teams in the College Football ranks will really be getting their Conference part of the schedule moving as we progress into Week 4 and over the next several weeks the pretenders will begin to be separated from the contenders.

There are teams that have already suffered losses that could end their hopes of making the twelve team Playoff- Notre Dame Fighting Irish have lost twice and they really have no margin for error the rest of the way, while also needing other results to land their way, while the Clemson Tigers are also in early trouble at 1-2.

However, for others like the Tennessee Volunteers, a close defeat against a quality opponent like Georgia will not be a fatal blow and they will still have plenty of reasons to believe the rest of the way.


More movement within the College Football Ranks will be expected once the Week 4 action is completed, but one news story of interest this week was the report that a game will be played at Wembley Stadium, London next season.

In Week 0, the Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa State Cyclones met in Dublin, but College Football has yet to follow the NFL to England and that is expected to change.

Perhaps most interesting is that the game is rumoured to be played in Week 3 rather than the unofficial opening week of action as has been the case in the past for any international game. It may lead to more games being played in England going forward, although that may depend on how Conferences set up their schedules as not many College teams will be willing to give up home field like they do in the NFL.

That is something to keep an eye on with Kansas Jayhawks and Arizona State Sun Devils rumoured to be the participants at Wembley Stadium in 2026.


It was a better week for the College Football Picks, although still not quite good enough to begin to turn things back around after a poor Week 1 showing.

As we move into Week 4, hopefully a winning set of games can be found with those selections seen below.


Purdue Boilermakers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Ryan Walters looked to be coming into a good situation with the Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), but the 1-11 record in 2024 was never going to be good enough for him to remain as Head Coach.

Unsurprisingly most would have felt the Boilermakers could only go up under Barry Odom, who had been doing a fine job as Head Coach of the UNLV Rebels. He has already helped double the wins from 2024, while the Boilermakers offered some resistance before losing to the USC Trojans at home in the Big Ten last week.

That makes it ten straight Conference defeats for the Boilermakers, but they are heading out to South Bend for this non-Conference game in Week 4.

Motivation will be high against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-2) with just 110 miles separating the campuses, while Purdue fans will remember the shellacking handed out by Notre Dame in 2024. That was on the way to National Championship Game, but this Fighting Irish team have already lost two close games to the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies and even making the post-season could be beyond them four weeks into the new season.

Head Coach Marcus Freeman has overseen a solid few seasons with the Fighting Irish, but he will be under pressure if the team are to slip to a third straight defeat in 2025.

There is room for improvement for the Fighting Irish ahead of this game- they have struggled for Offensive consistency and some of that is down to the Offensive Line issues. Notre Dame have not been able to run the ball with real authority, while the Fighting Irish Offensive Line have not been nearly as effective in pass protection as young Quarter Back CJ Carr would have liked.

It has put some pressure on Carr by having to be forced to throw from third and long spots and that has contributed to the Quarter Back opening this season with 3 Touchdown passes along with 2 Interceptions.

He should be able to have success against this Purdue team, although credit has to be given to Barry Odom who has made his reputation as a Defensive Coach and who has already shown he can toughen up this team. Last season the Boilermakers could not make stops, but the Defensive Line has made an encouraging start to the season and could keep the underdog competitive.

Winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so important in any American Football game and Purdue may struggle on the Offensive side of the ball when it comes to establishing the run. They may have some success slowing down the Fighting Irish on the other side, but the Boilermakers are not expected to have much success on the ground and that is going to put the pressure on the Quarter Back.

However, Ryan Browne may have some spaces to exploit considering the early issues Notre Dame have had in the Secondary, although the 4 Interceptions thrown is a problem. The Fighting Irish will also expect a step down compared with the Offensive power of the Hurricanes and Aggies, but there is an opportunity for Browne and the Boilermakers to have some gaps to exploit.

Turnovers are going to be important, but the spread is a big one and Barry Odom's record as an underdog is to be respected.

Notre Dame just need to win and the Purdue Head Coach was 6-3 against the spread as the road underdog with the Rebels.

The 59 point home loss to the Fighting Irish last season gives the road underdog a bit more motivation and the points on offer look appealing enough here.


Florida Gators @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The 10-3 overall record and the 6-2 Conference record saw the Miami Hurricanes (3-0) come up just short of the College Football Playoff spots.

They did win at least ten games for the first time since 2017, but the pre-season chatter was all about Head Coach Mario Cristobal and whether he could help the Hurricanes meet the new expectations around them.

Despite losing Cam Ward to the NFL as the Number 1 Overall Pick, the Hurricanes have been able to bring in Carson Beck at Quarter Back and the experience of this player cannot be underestimated. Coming through an early test to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, last year's National Championship Runners Up, will have raised the expectations further and the ACC looks a pretty open Conference at the very top.

A blowout win over the South Florida Bulls keeps the good times going, but everyone associated with Miami are expected a much tougher test against another in-State rival and one that is already in a desperate position.

Billy Napier may have finished last season by leading the Florida Gators (1-2) to a winning record, but 8-5 is not going to cut it again and the early results have already put the Gators behind the eight ball. Losing at the LSU Tigers is somewhat forgivable, but Florida were also beaten by the aforementioned Bulls and the Head Coach has to be feeling the pressure in his fourth season at the helm.

It is the Offensive side of the game that has been letting Florida down and they will need to put a solid Defensive unit in a better spot.

DJ Lagway is experienced having had to come in for Graham Mertz last season, but it was his 5 Interceptions in the loss to the Tigers that made the difference.

He has to be more careful against this tough Hurricanes Defense and the problem begins right up front with the Florida Offensive Line expected to find it difficult to establish the run. This will automatically mean the Quarter Back is having to force plays from third and long spots, which is a problem when noting 4 of the 6 Interceptions thrown in 2025 have been right out of that spot, and DJ Lagway is also going to be dealing with what has been a solid Miami Secondary.

Pressure can be produced up front and everything is pointing to another tough Offensive day in the office for the Florida Gators.

However, the key for the Gators has to be playing a clean game and at least being able to lean on the Defensive unit to continue to produce at the level they have been. It is a level that will give Florida a chance in every game played as long as they not being forced to protect short fields and the Gators just need Lagway to avoid the Interceptions that can put them on the back foot.

In saying that, Carson Beck is very experienced at Quarter Back and he has enjoyed his two previous games against the Florida Gators when a member of the Georgia Bulldogs. He did throw 3 Interceptions in the win against them last season, but has 4 Touchdown passes and Beck will believe the Hurricanes have the talent to find a way to move the chains.

A lot of the heavy handling may have to be done by Carson Beck considering how well the Florida Defensive Line have been performing early this season. They are going to be tested by the Hurricanes Offensive Line, but it may mean Beck is in a position where he will have to show off all of the experience he has in College Football.

Throwing successfully against this Florida Secondary will not be easy and Carson Beck has to avoid the Interceptions that could swing the game away from Miami. However, the feeling is that Beck can call upon some of his Receivers to win their battles and this is a big opportunity for Miami to show they are a genuine contender to reach the Playoff and perhaps even more.

Last season Florida were embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Miami Hurricanes at home and that will give them plenty of motivation this week.

Back to back road games are very difficult and it does feel like a game that the Miami Hurricanes can win and cover.

Respect has to be given to Billy Napier whose team has a winning record against the spread when playing with revenge, while the Head Coach has a 7-1-1 record against the spread when his team have a losing record. These stats cannot be dismissed, but DJ Lagway may not play a clean enough game for the Florida Gators and they may suffer yet another defeat by double digits when facing a Carson Beck-led opponent.


California Golden Bears @ San Diego State Aztecs Pick: The poor start made by the Clemson Tigers seems to have opened up the ACC and the California Golden Bears (3-0) will certainly feel they can exploit any gaps that have developed at the top.

Last season they finished with a 6-7 record, but there were enough close defeats in that time to believe that better was to come.

Non-Conference results are not always the best indication, but California have beaten Oregon State and Minnesota and they are set as big favourites to beat San Diego State Aztecs (1-1).

In 2024, California were 21 point winners against San Diego State at home and they are a significant favourite on the road. You can understand the reasoning for that considering how well the Golden Bears have begun this season, but they will have to be careful that they are not overlooking this opponent with the first ACC game on deck at Boston College set for Week 5.

The Golden Bears Offensive Line should be able to have some success on the ground as the Washington State Cougars did in their game with the San Diego State Aztecs, although the majority of the pressure will be on Quarter Back Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

He beat out Devin Brown, a transfer from Ohio State, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has impressed with 6 Touchdowns and a single Interception. After watching Jaxson Potter carve up the San Diego State Secondary, Sagapolutele and the Offense will certainly feel they can pick up where Washington State left off.

One challenge for the Golden Bears is that they are facing a team out of a Bye Week and with adjustments that will have been made. Even then, you have to believe California continue to roll and they can certainly pile up the yards and then see if the Aztecs have enough about them to make this competitive.

They were not able to do that in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars and San Diego State will be facing a California Defensive unit that have opened the season looking in very strong form.

San Diego State will want to lean on the Offensive Line and Running Back Lucky Sutton, but that is not going to be easy considering what we have seen from the Golden Bears Defensive Line. The road team will be aware that Sutton is the best player on this side of the ball for the Aztecs, and the home team are not going to be shying away from continuing to pound the rock, but it could be tough to move the chains with any consistency.

That will mean pressure on Jayden Denegal at Quarter Back, who struggled in the road loss at the Cougars.

He has been relatively well protected by the San Diego State Offensive Line, but Denegal has struggled for consistency and that may be the case against this California Secondary. There will be moments of success, but it could be another tough day in the office for this Offense and that could see the California Golden Bears eventually pull clear.

In recent years, the Golden Bears are 8-0 against the spread when playing non-Conference road games, while they are 14-7 against the spread in non-Conference games overall.

The spread is not going to be an easy one to deal with, but the Golden Bears can do enough to secure a two Touchdown win.


Michigan State Spartans @ USC Trojans Pick: Lincoln Riley is in his fourth year as Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0) and there is pressure on him to get things moving in a positive direction. His team won 11 games in his first season in charge, but that has dropped to 8 games in 2023 and 7 games in 2024 and the move to the Big Ten Conference means a much tougher route to earn a spot in the Playoff.

The positive is that four Big Ten teams were invited into the twelve team College Football Playoff last season and the USC Trojans have made a positive start to the season. They have already secured a road win in the Conference, which is that much tougher considering the vast range covered within the Conference schedule, and the Trojans are playing with real confidence.

However, there will be no doubt that this game represents the toughest test so far this season when the USC Trojans host the Michigan State Spartans (3-0).

Being in the Big Ten means the Trojans have a very tough schedule beginning this week, but the benefit of hosting is that this late kick off time should give the home team another advantage.

They will have plenty of respect for Michigan State Head Coach Jonathan Smith and USC fans will be familiar with his work with the Oregon State Beavers. After the team won 11 games in 2021, the last three years have been difficult, but the first season under Smith in 2024 showed plenty of positive signs and three straight wins to open this season means expectations are beginning to be increased at Michigan State.

Last season they finished 3-6 in Big Ten play, while the Spartans have not faced any team of real note before this huge statement test.

Like any team in the Conference, Michigan State will have a tough run of games coming up and they have to hope that the three games played are enough preparation for the kind of opponents they will be facing in the Big Ten.

The Spartans will find it tough to run the ball with any consistency against this Trojans Defensive Line and that will mean having to lean on Quarter Back Aiden Chiles to try and keep the team moving. Michigan State have not really impressed when facing weaker opposition compared with the USC Trojans, and so it will make it tough to believe that the road team can have a lot of consistent success when it comes to pounding the ball on the ground.

Aiden Chiles has opened the season with some positive numbers, but he did have 13 Touchdown passes and 11 Interceptions last season and this is going to be the first game where the pressure is on his shoulders. Playing out of third and long is tough and that will only be more difficult when you think of the pass rush pressure the Trojans have been able to generate early this season.

He will also be trying to throw against a ball-hawking Secondary and there is a feeling that Chiles could be forced into a turnover or two that really allows the USC Trojans to break the game open.

Once again all eyes will be on the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball... And the Trojans have to be very confident in what they are running out.

Credit has to be given to the Spartans Defensive Line for the early successes put on the board, but they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one that the Trojans will be trotting out. In the first three wins, USC have crushed teams on the ground and they have picked up 7 yards per carry, which in turn has made things very comfortable for Jayden Maiava at Quarter Back.

Jayden Maiava will be encouraged by the numbers being allowed by the Michigan State Secondary and he has been given plenty of time by the USC Offensive Line when dropping back to throw the ball. With the Receivers around him, Maiava is expected to have another quality showing and he can help the USC Trojans push forward and put a statement win on the board.

Since the start of the 2024 season, USC are 6-0 against the spread as the home favourite.

In recent years, the Michigan State Spartans are 1-7-1 against the spread as underdogs of more than 17 points and they may struggle to keep up with the hosts in this Week 4 clash.

MY PICKS: Purdue Boilermakers + 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Friday, 20 September 2024

College Football Week 4 Picks 2024 (Friday 20th September-Saturday 21st September)

The College Football season has produced plenty of storylines already and the expanded PlayOff means more teams remain interested in the post-season push even if they have suffered a defeat.

Conference play is slowly getting going and there are some big games in Week 4, although the Picks are limited to just five different games.


Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: There is a very deep history of strong Football being played by the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0), but more recent times have been extremely disappointing for fans of the school.

Thirty years ago, Nebraska were entering a season that would end with a National Championship and the Cornhuskers would win three of four National Championships in this time. Getting up to or close to double digit wins per season became the norm, but the last decade has been tough and the Cornhuskers have finished with a losing record in nine of the last ten years.

Mike Riley and Scott Frost have failed to turn things around and the first season under Head Coach Matt Rhule finished at 5-7, but the Cornhuskers believe things will turn around under his guidance. Opening up this season with a perfect 3-0 record will give the team confidence, but Rhule is the first to admit that the real challenges lie ahead with Nebraska about to play their first Big Ten Conference game and in a prime time spot.

They are hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) on Friday evening and both teams are Ranked inside the top 25.

It has been a much longer length of time that has passed since Illinois Fighting Irish were finishing as National Champions and they have had just a single winning season in twelve. Much like their hosts, the start made to the season will offer the fans encouragement that better is to come in 2024 with that one winning record produced under Head Coach Bret Bielema.

Despite finishg with two losing records in three seasons at the helm, Bielema has overseen an improvement in the Fighting Illini performances and winning eighteen games in three seasons is the best three year run since the turn of the century. And with three wins to open this season, Bret Bielema is looking to keep things ticking over and improving with this team, although this is just as much a testing point for his team as it is for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Both teams will be looking to pound the rock and try and get in front of the chains to allow their Quarter Backs to then make plays.

Bret Bielema has always been someone who wants his team to dominate at the line of scrimmage and his Illinois Offensive Line has begun the season playing well. However, they will also know they have yet to face a Defensive Line has solid as the one that Nebraska have been running out on the field and so it could be tough for the Fighting Illini to impose themselves as wll as they would like.

The Head Coach has challenged his Offensive Line and Running Back corps to find a way to establish the run in this game, but that looks challenging. This could make things a little tougher for Luke Altmyer at Quarter Back, even if he has performed well so far this season, and he could be faced with some pass rush pressure from the Cornhuskers, which could lead to mistakes against this ball-hawking Secondary.

Matt Rhule will be looking to keep the pressure from off his young Quarter Back and the feeling is that the Cornhuskers are going to have more success running the ball. It is not only the fact that their Offensive Line has been in good shape to open the season, but the Fighting Illini Defensive Line have had one or two gaps that have been breached and it is very important for Dylan Raiola to be given an opportunity from third and manageable spots on the field.

The freshman Quarter Back has impressed early, but this is arguably his toughest test against a Secondary that will give him unfamiliar looks. Trying to work that out and allow routes to develop from behind the chains would be tough for Dylan Raiola, but if the Cornhuskers can pound the rock as they have been, he should have a much more comfortable evening.

Turnovers have inspired the Fighting Illini this season and so Raiola will have to be careful, but he is being well protected by his Offensive Line and the Quarter Back has had a knack for feeling the pass rush and moving away from it.

Ultimately the Cornhuskers can put Dylan Raiola in the best position to succeed by running the ball effectively and they will feel they can beat an Illinois team that was seen off in 2023 on the road. That snapped a three game losing run for Nebraska in the series, but they can back up the 2023 win as long as the team are not overawed by being put in a spotlight situation on Friday night as Week 4 of the College Football season gets underway.


Houston Cougars @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: Two seasons ago, the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) and Houston Cougars (1-2) finished with winning records as they played out their last season as members of the American Athletic Conference before moving into the Big 12.

Both schools would have known the competition was going to ramp up, but even then, the struggles might have come as a surprise.

Cincinnati finished with a 1-8 Conference record and Houston finished with a 2-7 Conference record, but that means expectations are not nearly as great as they would have been in the 2023 season. Now both are prepared to begin Big 12 play after starting the season with three non-Conference opponents and both the Bearcats and Cougars have suffered a close loss to a Power 4 opponent.

For the Bearcats it was a 1 point loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers, while for the Houston Cougars it was a 4 point loss to the Oklahoma Sooners, who are now a member of the SEC having left the Big 12.

It is the blowout loss to the UNLV Rebels that may be particularly disappointing for the Houston Cougars and this is a tough road game considering the amount of injuries they are dealing with early in the 2024 season. To make matters tougher, it is not just the fact they are dealing with those injuries, but it is the fact that Houston have suffered major injuries that will keep some starters out for the remainder of the year.

And it not just one side of the ball, but the Cougars have been hit hard on both sides and so it is going to be tough to earn revenge against the Cincinnati Bearcats, whose sole win in the Big 12 was against Houston in 2023.

Houston did beat the Rice Owls last week so there is something positive to bring into this game, but the Cougars Offensive Line have struggled as they have needed backups to step up. This is not a team that have been able to run the ball nearly as well as they would have liked and it is tough to imagine they will have a lot more success even if the Bearcats Defensive Line have had issues.

Donovan Smith is a dual-threat Quarter Back for Houston, but the Offensive Line has been collapsing around him and that is impacting him both when he looks to scramble and when he wants some time to throw. If he does have that time, this is a Cincinnati Secondary that can struggle to stop the pass, but the Bearcats have picked up some significant pass rush pressure and can expose the injury hit Houston Offensive Line to try and stall drives.

While the Offensive unit have had some problems, the Houston Defensive unit have overcome the injuries that have been felt on this side of the ball. Linebacker Torren Coppage-El is the latest to go down through and this is going to be a significant test against a Cincinnati Offensive Line that has opened up holes for 6.2 yards per carry.

It will be strength vs strength in the trenches, but the Bearcats have to be feeling pretty confident they can keep their Quarter Back in front of the chains, which is also very significant as Brendan Sorsby looks to make good reads before throwing the ball. Overall it has been a good start to the season for Sorsby and he has avoided mistakes, which should be something he can continue to do as long as the Bearcats Offensive Line can just impose themselves up front.

They have been good in pass protection to offer their Quarter Back the time to make his plays when dropping back to pass and the Houston pass rush has not been the most effective. Strong Secondary play has to be respected, although it was the rushing numbers produced by the Bearcats which helped them upset the Cougars in November 2023.

That victory means Cincinnati have won four in a row in the series, including the last two at home, and the Bearcats may have the edge on the Offensive Line to just lean on that group to help to another win and cover against Houston.


NC State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers Pick: A long-time National Championship contender, the Clemson Tigers (1-1) had a miserable 2023 season and finished with a 4-4 record within the ACC. Betwen 2015 and 2022, the Tigers won seven Conference Championships and also the National Championship twice, but that does not mean the fanbase is completely happy with Head Coach Dabo Swinney.

Last season plenty of that frustration was voiced by the fans and the Head Coach defended his team and his position vigorously, although there is little doubt the pressure will have increased this time around.

The Tigers had been a regular name in the College Football PlayOff when only four teams were involved, so missing out on the new expanded format of the post-season would be a huge blow. That would be an even bigger issue when playing in a Conference where the Florida State Seminoles look significantly weaker than the team that won the Championship last season, and it will feel like reaching the Championship Game is the bare minimum for Clemson.

Some of the stronger feelings about this team may have been tempered in the Week 1 blowout to the Georgia Bulldogs- at first glance you understand losing to a major National Championship contender, but the nature of the defeat is the worry, even if the Tigers have bounced back to crush Appalachian State.

With a Bye Week behind them, the fans will be arriving at Memorial Stadium expecting the Tigers to make a very positive start to ACC Conference play as they host the NC State Wolfpack (2-1).

The Wolfpack have beaten a couple of opponents they have been expected to beat, although they have perhaps not impressed as much as some would have hoped. Like Clemson, NC State have been embarrassed by a team from the SEC which has been the meat in the sandwich of those wins over Louisiana Tech and an opponent from the FCS.

After being crushed by the Tennessee Volunteers, this will feel like a 'prove it' kind of game for the Wolfpack and the Offensive Line will be hoping to find a way to establish the run. We have a limited sample, but it should be noted that the Tigers Defensive Line have been struggling to stop the run in their first two games and so the first ambition for the Wolfpack will be to establish the ground game.

It is perhaps more important with the Wolfpack losing their starting Quarter Back and having to turn to an inexperienced CJ Bailey in what is the first road game for NC State this season. That only adds to the pressure and this Tigers Defensive unit will want to show they are much better than the one that was badly outplayed by the Georgia Bulldogs.

Generating a stronger pass rush will help, but it is also looks a good chance for Clemson to bounce back with a Bye Week to prepare and having an inexperienced Quarter Back facing them,

Cade Klubnick has plenty of experience and he is going to feel that personally he has to show a lot more after that defeat to the Bulldogs in a prime time spot. After seeing the young Tennessee Quarter Back Nico Iamaleava help the team crush the Wolfpack, Klubnick has something to aim at and this NC State Defensive unit looks vulnerable.

Straight away it has to be noted that the Defensive Line has struggled to contain the run and now they have to face this Clemson Offensive Line which is capable of breaking open lanes for big gains on the ground. That will be music to the ears of the Clemson Quarter Back who is likely going to be given plenty of time in the pocket with the Tigers playing in front of the chains.

This should allow Cade Klubnick to have his way with this NC State Secondary and the Clemson Tigers look to have an edge, especially with extra preparation time.

Revenge is another motivational tool for the Tigers who were beaten by NC State in 2023 and this feels like an opportunity for Clemson to produce a very good home win to just remind people of their own National Championship capabilities.


California Golden Bears @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: They came into the season with a huge point to prove having been an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion that was left of the College Football PlayOff. Injuries had been the factor cited, but the Florida State Seminoles (0-3) still felt snubbed and that they deserved an opportunity to play for a National Championship.

So there was plenty expected from an 'angry' team, even though some key players had left.

Perhaps the blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in the Bowl Game should have highlighted the lack of depth in the Seminoles locker room, but even with that in mind, it has been an embarrassing start to the season.

Three games against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Boston College Eagles and Memphis Tigers looked like a positive opportunity for the Seminoles to at least get off to a strong start. However, it has been anything but and the team are struggling in almost all aspects of their Football.

Next up for the Florida State Seminoles is a third ACC Conference game and this time it is against one of the new members of the Conference with the California Golden Bears (3-0) playing their first game in the ACC after leaving the Pac-12.

Unlike professional teams, this is going to feel strange for the Golden Bears in having to travel so far for a road game in the Conference and you do have to wonder if that is going to be a factor. The start made to the season will give California plenty of confidence, but the travel is going to be a potential issue and they will not want to overlook Florida State despite the turmoil in the home camp.

Winning at the Auburn Tigers will prove that the Golden Bears can handle a tough road atmosphere, and this one might not be as difficult with the Florida State fans likely more frustrated by what their own team is doing.

The Golden Bears Offensive Line will look to establish the run and there is every chance they will be able to do that, which is key to just making sure the Offensive unit can move the chains with some consistency. It will certainly be important to just ensure the pass rush pressure is not going to stall drives and running the ball well enough will mean Fernando Mendoza can just make the plays needed to keep things ticking over.

Ultimately it is not going to be a game in which the California Golden Bears are going to have dominant Offensive numbers considering how well the Seminoles Defense have played for the most part. The bigger issue for the Seminoles is that they have struggled when they have had the ball and mistakes on that side of the ball have intensified the pressure on that Seminoles Defense.

The inability to run the ball has been a major problem for Florida State and they are not expected to have a lot of space to exploit in the trenches, which is only making things very difficult for DJ Uiagalelei who has transferred back into the ACC with the Seminoles having previously played as a Clemson Tigers.

The Quarter Back struggled in his time with the Tigers before rebuilding away from the limelight, and the Seminoles are making it clear that their start is not down to poor play from DJ Uiagalelei. He has simply not been given a lot of support by those around him, including the Offensive Line, who have also struggled when it comes to pass protection as well as run blocking.

Playing from behind the chains is never an easy place to be for any Quarter Back and especially if being given enough time is a problem.

In this game DJ Uiagalelei has to be concerned with the strong play of the Golden Bears Secondary, both in terms of yards given up through the air and with the fact the Defensive Backs have made the big plays to turn the ball over. If the Golden Bears can do that here, they are going to be able to become the fourth team to upset the Florida State Seminoles as the underdog.

Simply put, it is very hard to back the Seminoles here and California are playing well enough early in the campaign to earn the upset.

It is a long trip for California, but they have won at the Auburn Tigers and the Golden Bears look worth backing with the points being given to them.


Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls Pick: Conference play will tell us a lot more about the Miami Hurricanes (3-0), although there is every reason to be excited about the potential of this team after the start made to 2024.

A crushing win at SEC Florida Gators will have had everyone excited, although Billy Napier's team look terrible and it is not a win that has aged that well for Miami. Big wins have been secured over the last couple of weeks, but this is a signifciant step up in class compared with the last two opponents and with ACC Conference play beginning on Friday night.

Overlooking the South Florida Bulls (2-1) would be a mistake and people who point to Alabama's big win over the Bulls in Week 2 would also do well to remember that was on the road and South Florida should be a much tougher challenge in their own environment.

South Florida will also state they were only down one score mid-way through the Fourth Quarter before falling away against Alabama, so this is a big test for the Miami Hurricanes.

Everything will come down to the line of scrimmage when the Bulls have the ball and they need the Offensive Line to be able to impose themselves on this very good looking Miami Defensive Line. While the Hurricanes have been able to clamp down on the run, the Bulls have been effective when looking to establish the run and you feel the entire success South Florida will have is right here.

If they are not able to run the ball, the Offensive Line will have a real problem- they have been strong when it comes to run blocking, but pass protection has been a major issue and one that the Miami Hurricanes can exploit from what they have shown already this season. Byrum Brown has been relying on the strong run support and the Quarter Back could have a tough day in the office if he is being forced to throw from third and long situations.

The Bulls Defensive Line will be looking to show they can help their entire unit by shutting down the run, but this is a tough, tough Miami Offensive Line to push back.

They have helped the Hurricanes find a really good balance Offensively and the road favourite will be expecting to establish the run and just make things that much easier for Cam Ward at Quarter Back. Transferring over to the Miami Hurricanes from the Washington State Cougars has been huge for Ward and the team and performing at this level in this market is going to be pushing his Heisman credentials forward all of the time.

Cam Ward has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball and that has allowed him to pick apart the Secondaries he he faced. He should be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 3 and that should see Ward find a way to exploit this South Florida team and ultimately put the Hurricanes in a position to pull away for a very impressive win.

The last time these in-State rivals met was back in September 2013 and it was the Miami Hurricanes who left with a big road win.

They look to have all of the tools to do the same in Week 4 of the 2024 season and really make a big statement before beginning Conference play next week.

MY PICKS: Nebraska Cornhuskers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 18 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 17 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Sunday, 20 September 2020

NFL Week 2 Picks 2020 (September 17-21)

It still doesn't feel right that the NFL has begun considering all of the problems that have been occurring in the United States around the pandemic, but credit to the sport for getting things going as long as they can keep their players and fans protected as far as possible.

Life can't really be put completely on hold and so I am not surprised things have gotten going.

A long week means this thread is not as full as I would have liked, but below you can read my thoughts on Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season.


Week 2 Picks
Week 1 is in the books an it was a good solid start for the NFL Picks. I didn't make a selection from the Thursday Night Football AFC North battle, but I have a number of Picks from the remaining games to be played on Sunday and Monday which you can see below.

I will have analysis of some of those games and Picks from the others that have caught my eye.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The AFC East might not look like the playground of the New England Patriots as it has through the last twenty years and the team that looks most likely to take over has to be the Buffalo Bills. A comfortable win over the New York Jets in Week 1 is followed by another Divisional game in Week 2 and the Bills will feel they can't afford to slip against one of the other weaker teams in the AFC East.

They are up against a Miami Dolphins team which is definitely progressing in a positive direction, but who most fans will know are still at least a year away from really competing. They were beaten at the New England Patriots in Week 1 thanks to some poor Quarter Back play from Ryan Fitzpatrick, but there is yet to be a move made towards the rookie Tua Tagovailoa who has so much expectation on his shoulders.

I don't blame the Coaching staff for wanting to give Tagovailoa as much time as possible to acclimatise to the NFL having suffered that bad injury in his final year with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Add in the fact that the Dolphins are more than a Quarter Back away from really competing and it makes little sense to throw the rookie in with the wolves.

That is certainly what the Dolphins would be doing if they were to start him against the Bills Defensive unit which figures to be amongst the very best in the NFL. Last week they rattled Sam Darnold throughout the game with the Jets and the Defensive Line forced the Jets to drop back and have to throw the ball by shutting down the run.

It is unlikely that the Dolphins will have much success on the ground either which means the pressure will be on Ryan Fitzpatrick who may have to do without DeVante Parker at Receiver. That is a huge blow for a Miami Offensive unit that may not have much rushing support and it will only mean the Buffalo Defensive Line can pin their ears back and get after Fitzpatrick having had a lot of success doing that against the Jets Offensive Line last week.

Moving the ball is going to be a big challenge for the Miami Dolphins, but I don't think you can say the same about the Buffalo Bills. Last week only Josh Allen's mistakes at Quarter Back prevented the Bills from cracking the 30 point mark, but the young signal caller should have things his own way again for much of this Week 2 game.

One area of improvement that Sean McDermott will be demanding from his team is the way they run the ball in this game after being restricted by the New York Jets last week. Josh Allen has the wheels to help the team out, while they are going up against a Miami Defensive Line that were not able to slow down the New England Patriots on the ground in Week 1 and have to be more away of the threat the Bills have through the air compared with the long-time Divisional stand outs.

If Buffalo are running the ball effectively it may leave more one on one chances on the outside, but it can't be ignored the amount of investment Miami have made in the Secondary. John Brown is a potential absentee for the Bills having crushed Miami last season, but the Dolphins have had Xavien Howard banged up and it may all be a moot point if Buffalo are running the ball like they should be able to.

Josh Allen will still look to move around the pocket and see if he can hit Brown, if available, and Stefon Diggs down the field and I do think Buffalo can move to 2-0.

Running the ball should control the clock and the Defensive unit can make the big plays to really move things in favour of the Bills who have won five of their last six against this Divisional rival.

The Bills have won two of their last three visits to South Florida and they would have covered this number in both of those successes. Brian Flores has really got his Miami team playing well as the underdog and that has to be respected, but Buffalo are 7-2-1 against the spread in their last ten road games and I think they will have too much on both sides of the ball for the progressing Dolphins.

A Thursday Night Football game can also be a distraction for teams and that is another factor that the Miami Dolphins will have to deal with ahead of a big Week 2 home opener.


Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I will put my hands up here and admit I backed the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 to beat the Green Bay Packers, but perhaps I should have put more stock into the amount of anger Aaron Rodgers is going to be playing with in the 2020 season. This is not a man who is capable of letting go of perceived slights and Rodgers had arguably his best game since 2018 when absolutely crushing the Vikings on the road.

It might not have the same feel as usual, but the home opener is always a big deal in Green Bay as the Packers look to move 2-0 for the season and within the competitive NFC North. The Division might not be as close if the Detroit Lions cannot pick themselves up from their collapse in the Fourth Quarter against the Chicago Bears in Week 1 which is only going to increase the pressure on the Coaching staff.

Matt Patricia is perhaps a little fortunate to still be the Head Coach for the Lions having compiled a 9-22-1 record in his three seasons and the manner of the defeat to the Bears will have really stung the entire organisation. The Lions go into their Bye Week in Week 5, but there has to be a real fear that they could be 0-4 at that point and that is when Patricia may finally be let go.

Two tight wins for the Green Bay Packers over the Detroit Lions in the 2019 season should keep the home team focused, while the visitors will head to this famous Stadium knowing they may actually match up with the Packers on the Offensive side of the ball.

In Week 1 the Lions really did have a good time running the ball with Adrian Peterson leading the way for them. As good as the Packers were Offensively in the win over the Vikings, they did allow Minnesota to rack up 134 yards on the ground and at 6.1 yards per carry and I do think the Detroit Lions will look to pound the ball to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines and tire out this Defensive unit.

All Day showed there is still something left in the tank after leaving the Washington Football Team, while having Matthew Stafford behind Center means the Packers can't sell out to stop Adrian Peterson. D'Andre Swift is another dangerous weapon coming out of the backfield for the Lions and that should at least mean the team are able to move the chains.

Matthew Stafford will miss the presence of Kenny Golloday though and especially against the Green Bay Secondary which is the strength of the Defensive unit. They did give up some yards in garbage time as they protected a big lead and the Vikings were forced to throw, but the Packers are a dangerous team who can create turnovers and have pressure up front that might be able to rattle Stafford if he doesn't trust the remaining Receivers he will be forced to turn to.

The Lions should have a chance to move the chains, although the same can be said of the Green Bay Packers especially if Aaron Rodgers continues to play angry. He decimated the Minnesota Vikings and the really bad news for the Detroit Lions is how banged up their Secondary are ahead of this Week 2 game.

They allowed Mitchell Trubisky to look pretty decent in the Fourth Quarter in Week 1 and dealing with Aaron Rodgers fresh off a 364 yard, four Touchdown day will be a huge challenge for a banged up team. To make matters even more difficult for the Lions is that they were not really able to control the line of scrimmage which means the likes of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are able to rip off some big gains on the ground to keep things pretty open for the other Aaron standing behind the Offensive Line.

I am surprised the Packers haven't been asked to cover a bigger spread than this one even though their two wins over the Lions came by a combined four points last season. They look healthier of the two teams and in a shoot out you have to favour Aaron Rodgers after the performance in Week 1 and with the huge chip on the shoulder that he is currently playing with.

The Lions have not covered in their last four road games as the underdog and you do have to wonder if the players are still playing for Matt Patricia. Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite, and the favourite in this series has compiled a 12-4 record in the last sixteen games between these Divisional rivals.

Detroit also have a pretty poor record covering when they are set as an underdog of 6 or more points and I do think the Green Bay Packers can move to 2-0 in what I figure to be another big Aaron Rodgers day.


Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The opening game of Tom Brady's career outside of Foxboro might not have gone to plan, but there has to be elements of the first start that will please the future Hall of Famer and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Some poor mistakes have to be eradicated by Brady, which I am sure he will be able to do, but the game time with his new Receivers will build the chemistry in each of the next few weeks, particularly as they have not had the usual pre-season reps to do that.

Tom Brady is likely going to have to make do without Chris Godwin who is in the concussion protocol, but that should not be a major problem for a team with as many weapons as the Buccaneers have around their star Quarter Back. There is no doubt that Godwin is a top player, but Mike Evans is set to go and Tampa Bay are facing a Carolina Secondary which is not the same as previous years.

In fact the entire Panthers Defensive unit has taken a step back as injuries, age and transitions are taking place at this NFC South team. They gave up 34 points in a defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 and the argument could easily be made that the Buccaneers are a much stronger team Offensively than Jon Gruden's club.

There should not be the same type of pressure around Brady that we saw in their Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints and having a bit more time should mean making less mistakes. The Buccaneers would love to get something going on the ground too so they can ease some of the pass rush pressure and keep Tom Brady in third and manageable spots at the very least and there was enough positive running from Ronald Jones to think they can do that.

Last week the Offensive Line struggled with their consistency, but in Week 2 they are not facing a Defensive front like the one the Saints bring to the field and that should be music to the ears of their veteran signal caller.

The Panthers haven't just made changes on the Defensive side of the ball, but a new Coaching staff is in and the Offense is now being run by Teddy Bridgewater rather than Cam Newton. There isn't a rookie pressurising Bridgewater who has shown he can manage teams very well, although the the Panthers may need him to do more in games like this one to get them over the line.

That might be surprising to hear about a team that will lean on Christian McCaffrey, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Line did well against Alvin Kamara in Week 1. In the two games between these Divisional rivals in 2019, the Buccaneers managed to restrict the Carolina Panthers to fewer than 60 yards and that will be encouraging for Tampa Bay looking to bounce back from a loss.

It does mean Teddy Bridgewater will have to deal with the Buccaneers pass rush pressure from third and long spots at times. He might look to get the ball into the hands of his playmaker McCaffrey as much as possible, but the Tampa Bay Secondary are coming off a decent performance against a much more powerful Offensive unit and that should see one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl bounce back with the victory.

Some of the injuries around Tom Brady is a concern, but the Panthers are learning on the job having not had the chance to learn from a new Coaching staff as they would have had in usual circumstances. There is an additional factor that Carolina Head Coach Matt Rhule has previously gone in and seen Bruce Arians work to learn more about NFL Offenses in the past, although I am not sure that will be enough for the Panthers to keep this competitive.

Breaking in a new Quarter Back won't have been easy for the Buccaneers either, but Tom Brady is vastly experienced and I do expect that to show up. The Panthers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog, while Tom Brady is usually pretty strong coming in off a loss and I expect that all comes together here.


Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This is a huge NFC game even in Week 2 of the 2020 season as two teams coming off losses look to bounce back and move back up to 0.500 for the year. Both the Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys will be disappointed with their defeats in Week 1, but they will believe they have the strengths to get past their opponent in this game.

Injuries are always a critical factor in NFL games and in this one you do have to worry about the Dallas Cowboys who look to be down key personnel on both sides of the ball. That has seen the sharp money come down on the side of the Atlanta Falcons, but they may still be worth backing while the spread is above a Field Goal mark.

Leighton Vander Esch has suffered another injury and the Dallas Cowboys were not at their best at stopping the run at key points of the defeat to the Los Angeles Rams last week. This might be a problem further down the line, but in this game I am not sure Todd Gurley and the Falcons Offensive Line is going to open up enough holes to get the former Rams Running Back going like they would hope.

He will still have his moments and the key is keeping the Offensive unit in front of the chains and making sure the Dallas pass rush is not able to get after Matt Ryan in obvious passing situations. The Quarter Back may not be one of my favourites, but Ryan is coming off a strong showing and he is facing a Dallas team who do have questions in the Secondary and looked rusty in Week 1.

With Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones as big time targets to aim at, Matt Ryan should have a strong day although he has to avoid the big mistakes which can sometimes blight his game. I do think this is a good match up for the Falcons who had a strong end to the 2019 season and I believe Matt Ryan and company are going to force Dallas to try and beat them in a shoot out.

Dallas can certainly have some success in that situation, although they could be missing both starting Tackles on the Offensive Line which has to be a worry. Last week the Cowboys were not able to keep Dak Prescott upright as they would have liked and there was enough out of the Falcons Defensive Line when it came to rushing the passer to believe they can take advantage of the injuries on the Dallas Offensive Line.

Getting Ezekiel Elliot going on the ground could be a huge boost for Prescott to ease some of the pressure he will likely see otherwise. The Running Back had a strong Week 1 and I do think he can have another good outing against the Falcons Defensive Line which is better when pinning their ears back to get after the Quarter Back than clamping down on the run.

Dak Prescott will likely have a very good day too if he is given time in the pocket having seen Russell Wilson decimate the Falcons Secondary in Week 1. With the Receiving corps he has and with Ezekiel Elliot showing his own pass catching ability out of the backfield last week, Dak Prescott won't have too many excuses if he is not able to have a strong day in the office in the Dallas home opener.

Both teams are expected to have a very good Offensive day and I do think this will be one of the higher scoring games of the Week 2 schedule. Getting the hook with the Falcons still looks enough to back the road team especially if the Dallas Offensive Line is not able to protect Dak Prescott, while I do think Matt Ryan is going to have a strong day too.

The Atlanta Falcons have covered in their last four games as the road underdog and both teams coming off a loss should keep the game competitive throughout this one. Even if Matt Ryan is trailing late, I would not be surprised if he can lead the Falcons down the field to get within this number even though the mark would have looked so much more appealing if it had stayed where it was at the start of the week.


Washington Football Team @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: It was all change in the summer at the Washington Football Team which finally removed the nickname that had been a controversy for a number of years, but it seemed like being the same old story on the field. They were behind by three scores in Week 1 to NFC East rivals Philadelphia, but the Football Team rallied in the second half and are the only team within the Division who have a 1-0 record.

They face another 1-0 team who are coming in off a big upset in Week 1 when they take on the Arizona Cardinals in the desert, but there are much bigger expectations around the Cardinals in Kyler Murray's second year at Quarter Back.

That might be a surprise considering the 5-10-1 record in 2019, but the Cardinals did look very good at times and I do believe Murray is going to be a very strong Quarter Back at this level. He will also benefit if the Offensive Line can take a step up in their own level and offer much better protection than they did a year ago and give Murray time to find his new weapon DeAndre Hopkins down the field.

Last week the Offensive Line played well against a powerful San Francisco Defensive Line, although they are missing one of the starters on the line this time around. That will present a challenge for the Arizona Cardinals against another red-hot Defensive Line that the Washington Football Team have and one coming in off a dominating performance against the Eagles.

I do think Murray's ability to scramble will help the Offensive Line and it will just ease the pass rush that Washington are able to send towards him. That scrambling did help the Cardinals rip off some big runs against the 49ers who had a strong Defensive Line against the run in 2019 so I do think Arizona will have success against the Washington Football Team too.

Establishing the run should also open up the field for Murray to exploit with his arm and I do think the Cardinals will be able to move the chains and score the points to back up their upset win on the road in Week 1.

The Washington Football Team and Dwayne Haskins are coming off a big win of their own, but I do think there were other factors in play which gave them the chance for the upset. I had backed the Football Team with the start on the handicap and at one stage felt it was going to be a long day in the office, but the Defensive unit stepped up and really gave Washington the chance to not only cover, but win outright.

Offensively they did struggle and it is hard to imagine that is going to drastically change after a single week of Football is in the books. They didn't run the ball well and Haskins struggled with the pass and now has to face an Arizona team that looks better all around on the Defensive side of the ball.

The Cardinals were not able to completely shut down the San Francisco 49ers, but that is the team that reached the Super Bowl a few months ago while the Washington Football have long been a struggling organisation. And while Washington should have some success with their pass rush, the Football Team's Offensive Line has plenty of holes that can be exploited by a strong Arizona pass rush which should be able to rattle Dwayne Haskins and perhaps force him into a couple of errant throws to turn the ball over.

For me the Arizona Cardinals are clearly the better team, although their 1-5 record against the spread the last six times they have been favoured at home has to be a worry. I just don't believe Washington can have the same Offensive impact on this game as the Cardinals can and that should give Arizona the better chances to move to 2-0.

If they can play a relatively clean game, Arizona should be able to cover too.


New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Two teams coming into Week 2 off Week 1 wins meet in the Sunday Night Football game, although a lot has changed since the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks met in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2014 season. The Legion of Boom have all moved on, while the Patriots are no longer led by Tom Brady at Quarter Back.

Even then both teams will feel they can have a strong 2020 season and look to be challenging for PlayOff spots and potentially even more. They both impressed in different ways in Week 1 of the 2020 season, but I do feel the Seattle Seahawks are the better all around team and can show that at home, even if the 12th Man is not going to be in attendance.

The Seahawks look to have changed some of their Offensive direction if Week 1 is anything to go by as they allowed Russell Wilson to 'cook' in their big win on the road at the Atlanta Falcons. He destroyed what is a weak Secondary, but that is not the case in Week 2 against the New England Patriots whose main Defensive strength is in that part of the field.

It may mean Seattle go back to something of a more familiar Offensive plan which is to run the ball down the throat of the Patriots and then use play-action to rip off chunks of yards through the air. That won't be an easy game plan against this Patriots Defensive Line, but it may be possible for the Running Backs to come out of the backfield and at least pick up short passes from their Quarter Back and move the chains that way.

Russell Wilson is also a big upgrade on Ryan Fitzpatrick which is another reason I do imagine this Seattle team have more successes through the air than the Miami Dolphins did in Week 1 and the Patriots having to travel across the country is also another factor in play.

While people in New England are trying to get used to their new look Offensive plans, the Seahawks will be very familiar with Cam Newton at Quarter Back and that should aid them when formulating a plan on the Defensive side of the ball.

It is clear what has to be expected from the Patriots- they will try and run the ball and keep control of the clock and Newton in manageable positions, but I also would not be surprised if they try and loosen the Seattle Defensive Line with some early throws. The Secondary gave up some big numbers to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, but Newton isn't the same kind of thrower as Matt Ryan nor does he have those big weapons in the Receiving corps that Ryan can focus on.

With Seattle looking stronger on the Defensive Line I do think they will make a much job of clamping down on Cam Newton and his Running Backs to try and force New England to rely on the Quarter Back's arm. That is not really ideal for the Patriots and I do think Seattle are rightly favoured and in a position where they can win this game and cover the spread.

Bill Belichick's teams have to be respected as the underdog and I think that does raise some questions about the way this game will go. Seattle can sometimes be over-rated as the home favourite too and without crowds this Stadium may have a very different feel about it, but even then I think Russell Wilson can outplay Cam Newton and help his team win and cover the mark.

It is the first time the teams are meeting since 2016 when Seattle won on the road and I think this time they win at home by around a Touchdown margin.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)