The College Football season has produced plenty of storylines already and the expanded PlayOff means more teams remain interested in the post-season push even if they have suffered a defeat.
Conference play is slowly getting going and there are some big games in Week 4, although the Picks are limited to just five different games.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: There is a very deep history of strong Football being played by the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0), but more recent times have been extremely disappointing for fans of the school.
Thirty years ago, Nebraska were entering a season that would end with a National Championship and the Cornhuskers would win three of four National Championships in this time. Getting up to or close to double digit wins per season became the norm, but the last decade has been tough and the Cornhuskers have finished with a losing record in nine of the last ten years.
Mike Riley and Scott Frost have failed to turn things around and the first season under Head Coach Matt Rhule finished at 5-7, but the Cornhuskers believe things will turn around under his guidance. Opening up this season with a perfect 3-0 record will give the team confidence, but Rhule is the first to admit that the real challenges lie ahead with Nebraska about to play their first Big Ten Conference game and in a prime time spot.
They are hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) on Friday evening and both teams are Ranked inside the top 25.
It has been a much longer length of time that has passed since Illinois Fighting Irish were finishing as National Champions and they have had just a single winning season in twelve. Much like their hosts, the start made to the season will offer the fans encouragement that better is to come in 2024 with that one winning record produced under Head Coach Bret Bielema.
Despite finishg with two losing records in three seasons at the helm, Bielema has overseen an improvement in the Fighting Illini performances and winning eighteen games in three seasons is the best three year run since the turn of the century. And with three wins to open this season, Bret Bielema is looking to keep things ticking over and improving with this team, although this is just as much a testing point for his team as it is for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Both teams will be looking to pound the rock and try and get in front of the chains to allow their Quarter Backs to then make plays.
Bret Bielema has always been someone who wants his team to dominate at the line of scrimmage and his Illinois Offensive Line has begun the season playing well. However, they will also know they have yet to face a Defensive Line has solid as the one that Nebraska have been running out on the field and so it could be tough for the Fighting Illini to impose themselves as wll as they would like.
The Head Coach has challenged his Offensive Line and Running Back corps to find a way to establish the run in this game, but that looks challenging. This could make things a little tougher for Luke Altmyer at Quarter Back, even if he has performed well so far this season, and he could be faced with some pass rush pressure from the Cornhuskers, which could lead to mistakes against this ball-hawking Secondary.
Matt Rhule will be looking to keep the pressure from off his young Quarter Back and the feeling is that the Cornhuskers are going to have more success running the ball. It is not only the fact that their Offensive Line has been in good shape to open the season, but the Fighting Illini Defensive Line have had one or two gaps that have been breached and it is very important for Dylan Raiola to be given an opportunity from third and manageable spots on the field.
The freshman Quarter Back has impressed early, but this is arguably his toughest test against a Secondary that will give him unfamiliar looks. Trying to work that out and allow routes to develop from behind the chains would be tough for Dylan Raiola, but if the Cornhuskers can pound the rock as they have been, he should have a much more comfortable evening.
Turnovers have inspired the Fighting Illini this season and so Raiola will have to be careful, but he is being well protected by his Offensive Line and the Quarter Back has had a knack for feeling the pass rush and moving away from it.
Ultimately the Cornhuskers can put Dylan Raiola in the best position to succeed by running the ball effectively and they will feel they can beat an Illinois team that was seen off in 2023 on the road. That snapped a three game losing run for Nebraska in the series, but they can back up the 2023 win as long as the team are not overawed by being put in a spotlight situation on Friday night as Week 4 of the College Football season gets underway.
Houston Cougars @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: Two seasons ago, the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) and Houston Cougars (1-2) finished with winning records as they played out their last season as members of the American Athletic Conference before moving into the Big 12.
Both schools would have known the competition was going to ramp up, but even then, the struggles might have come as a surprise.
Cincinnati finished with a 1-8 Conference record and Houston finished with a 2-7 Conference record, but that means expectations are not nearly as great as they would have been in the 2023 season. Now both are prepared to begin Big 12 play after starting the season with three non-Conference opponents and both the Bearcats and Cougars have suffered a close loss to a Power 4 opponent.
For the Bearcats it was a 1 point loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers, while for the Houston Cougars it was a 4 point loss to the Oklahoma Sooners, who are now a member of the SEC having left the Big 12.
It is the blowout loss to the UNLV Rebels that may be particularly disappointing for the Houston Cougars and this is a tough road game considering the amount of injuries they are dealing with early in the 2024 season. To make matters tougher, it is not just the fact they are dealing with those injuries, but it is the fact that Houston have suffered major injuries that will keep some starters out for the remainder of the year.
And it not just one side of the ball, but the Cougars have been hit hard on both sides and so it is going to be tough to earn revenge against the Cincinnati Bearcats, whose sole win in the Big 12 was against Houston in 2023.
Houston did beat the Rice Owls last week so there is something positive to bring into this game, but the Cougars Offensive Line have struggled as they have needed backups to step up. This is not a team that have been able to run the ball nearly as well as they would have liked and it is tough to imagine they will have a lot more success even if the Bearcats Defensive Line have had issues.
Donovan Smith is a dual-threat Quarter Back for Houston, but the Offensive Line has been collapsing around him and that is impacting him both when he looks to scramble and when he wants some time to throw. If he does have that time, this is a Cincinnati Secondary that can struggle to stop the pass, but the Bearcats have picked up some significant pass rush pressure and can expose the injury hit Houston Offensive Line to try and stall drives.
While the Offensive unit have had some problems, the Houston Defensive unit have overcome the injuries that have been felt on this side of the ball. Linebacker Torren Coppage-El is the latest to go down through and this is going to be a significant test against a Cincinnati Offensive Line that has opened up holes for 6.2 yards per carry.
It will be strength vs strength in the trenches, but the Bearcats have to be feeling pretty confident they can keep their Quarter Back in front of the chains, which is also very significant as Brendan Sorsby looks to make good reads before throwing the ball. Overall it has been a good start to the season for Sorsby and he has avoided mistakes, which should be something he can continue to do as long as the Bearcats Offensive Line can just impose themselves up front.
They have been good in pass protection to offer their Quarter Back the time to make his plays when dropping back to pass and the Houston pass rush has not been the most effective. Strong Secondary play has to be respected, although it was the rushing numbers produced by the Bearcats which helped them upset the Cougars in November 2023.
That victory means Cincinnati have won four in a row in the series, including the last two at home, and the Bearcats may have the edge on the Offensive Line to just lean on that group to help to another win and cover against Houston.
NC State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers Pick: A long-time National Championship contender, the Clemson Tigers (1-1) had a miserable 2023 season and finished with a 4-4 record within the ACC. Betwen 2015 and 2022, the Tigers won seven Conference Championships and also the National Championship twice, but that does not mean the fanbase is completely happy with Head Coach Dabo Swinney.
Last season plenty of that frustration was voiced by the fans and the Head Coach defended his team and his position vigorously, although there is little doubt the pressure will have increased this time around.
The Tigers had been a regular name in the College Football PlayOff when only four teams were involved, so missing out on the new expanded format of the post-season would be a huge blow. That would be an even bigger issue when playing in a Conference where the Florida State Seminoles look significantly weaker than the team that won the Championship last season, and it will feel like reaching the Championship Game is the bare minimum for Clemson.
Some of the stronger feelings about this team may have been tempered in the Week 1 blowout to the Georgia Bulldogs- at first glance you understand losing to a major National Championship contender, but the nature of the defeat is the worry, even if the Tigers have bounced back to crush Appalachian State.
With a Bye Week behind them, the fans will be arriving at Memorial Stadium expecting the Tigers to make a very positive start to ACC Conference play as they host the NC State Wolfpack (2-1).
The Wolfpack have beaten a couple of opponents they have been expected to beat, although they have perhaps not impressed as much as some would have hoped. Like Clemson, NC State have been embarrassed by a team from the SEC which has been the meat in the sandwich of those wins over Louisiana Tech and an opponent from the FCS.
After being crushed by the Tennessee Volunteers, this will feel like a 'prove it' kind of game for the Wolfpack and the Offensive Line will be hoping to find a way to establish the run. We have a limited sample, but it should be noted that the Tigers Defensive Line have been struggling to stop the run in their first two games and so the first ambition for the Wolfpack will be to establish the ground game.
It is perhaps more important with the Wolfpack losing their starting Quarter Back and having to turn to an inexperienced CJ Bailey in what is the first road game for NC State this season. That only adds to the pressure and this Tigers Defensive unit will want to show they are much better than the one that was badly outplayed by the Georgia Bulldogs.
Generating a stronger pass rush will help, but it is also looks a good chance for Clemson to bounce back with a Bye Week to prepare and having an inexperienced Quarter Back facing them,
Cade Klubnick has plenty of experience and he is going to feel that personally he has to show a lot more after that defeat to the Bulldogs in a prime time spot. After seeing the young Tennessee Quarter Back Nico Iamaleava help the team crush the Wolfpack, Klubnick has something to aim at and this NC State Defensive unit looks vulnerable.
Straight away it has to be noted that the Defensive Line has struggled to contain the run and now they have to face this Clemson Offensive Line which is capable of breaking open lanes for big gains on the ground. That will be music to the ears of the Clemson Quarter Back who is likely going to be given plenty of time in the pocket with the Tigers playing in front of the chains.
This should allow Cade Klubnick to have his way with this NC State Secondary and the Clemson Tigers look to have an edge, especially with extra preparation time.
Revenge is another motivational tool for the Tigers who were beaten by NC State in 2023 and this feels like an opportunity for Clemson to produce a very good home win to just remind people of their own National Championship capabilities.
California Golden Bears @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: They came into the season with a huge point to prove having been an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion that was left of the College Football PlayOff. Injuries had been the factor cited, but the Florida State Seminoles (0-3) still felt snubbed and that they deserved an opportunity to play for a National Championship.
So there was plenty expected from an 'angry' team, even though some key players had left.
Perhaps the blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in the Bowl Game should have highlighted the lack of depth in the Seminoles locker room, but even with that in mind, it has been an embarrassing start to the season.
Three games against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Boston College Eagles and Memphis Tigers looked like a positive opportunity for the Seminoles to at least get off to a strong start. However, it has been anything but and the team are struggling in almost all aspects of their Football.
Next up for the Florida State Seminoles is a third ACC Conference game and this time it is against one of the new members of the Conference with the California Golden Bears (3-0) playing their first game in the ACC after leaving the Pac-12.
Unlike professional teams, this is going to feel strange for the Golden Bears in having to travel so far for a road game in the Conference and you do have to wonder if that is going to be a factor. The start made to the season will give California plenty of confidence, but the travel is going to be a potential issue and they will not want to overlook Florida State despite the turmoil in the home camp.
Winning at the Auburn Tigers will prove that the Golden Bears can handle a tough road atmosphere, and this one might not be as difficult with the Florida State fans likely more frustrated by what their own team is doing.
The Golden Bears Offensive Line will look to establish the run and there is every chance they will be able to do that, which is key to just making sure the Offensive unit can move the chains with some consistency. It will certainly be important to just ensure the pass rush pressure is not going to stall drives and running the ball well enough will mean Fernando Mendoza can just make the plays needed to keep things ticking over.
Ultimately it is not going to be a game in which the California Golden Bears are going to have dominant Offensive numbers considering how well the Seminoles Defense have played for the most part. The bigger issue for the Seminoles is that they have struggled when they have had the ball and mistakes on that side of the ball have intensified the pressure on that Seminoles Defense.
The inability to run the ball has been a major problem for Florida State and they are not expected to have a lot of space to exploit in the trenches, which is only making things very difficult for DJ Uiagalelei who has transferred back into the ACC with the Seminoles having previously played as a Clemson Tigers.
The Quarter Back struggled in his time with the Tigers before rebuilding away from the limelight, and the Seminoles are making it clear that their start is not down to poor play from DJ Uiagalelei. He has simply not been given a lot of support by those around him, including the Offensive Line, who have also struggled when it comes to pass protection as well as run blocking.
Playing from behind the chains is never an easy place to be for any Quarter Back and especially if being given enough time is a problem.
In this game DJ Uiagalelei has to be concerned with the strong play of the Golden Bears Secondary, both in terms of yards given up through the air and with the fact the Defensive Backs have made the big plays to turn the ball over. If the Golden Bears can do that here, they are going to be able to become the fourth team to upset the Florida State Seminoles as the underdog.
Simply put, it is very hard to back the Seminoles here and California are playing well enough early in the campaign to earn the upset.
It is a long trip for California, but they have won at the Auburn Tigers and the Golden Bears look worth backing with the points being given to them.
Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls Pick: Conference play will tell us a lot more about the Miami Hurricanes (3-0), although there is every reason to be excited about the potential of this team after the start made to 2024.
A crushing win at SEC Florida Gators will have had everyone excited, although Billy Napier's team look terrible and it is not a win that has aged that well for Miami. Big wins have been secured over the last couple of weeks, but this is a signifciant step up in class compared with the last two opponents and with ACC Conference play beginning on Friday night.
Overlooking the South Florida Bulls (2-1) would be a mistake and people who point to Alabama's big win over the Bulls in Week 2 would also do well to remember that was on the road and South Florida should be a much tougher challenge in their own environment.
South Florida will also state they were only down one score mid-way through the Fourth Quarter before falling away against Alabama, so this is a big test for the Miami Hurricanes.
Everything will come down to the line of scrimmage when the Bulls have the ball and they need the Offensive Line to be able to impose themselves on this very good looking Miami Defensive Line. While the Hurricanes have been able to clamp down on the run, the Bulls have been effective when looking to establish the run and you feel the entire success South Florida will have is right here.
If they are not able to run the ball, the Offensive Line will have a real problem- they have been strong when it comes to run blocking, but pass protection has been a major issue and one that the Miami Hurricanes can exploit from what they have shown already this season. Byrum Brown has been relying on the strong run support and the Quarter Back could have a tough day in the office if he is being forced to throw from third and long situations.
The Bulls Defensive Line will be looking to show they can help their entire unit by shutting down the run, but this is a tough, tough Miami Offensive Line to push back.
They have helped the Hurricanes find a really good balance Offensively and the road favourite will be expecting to establish the run and just make things that much easier for Cam Ward at Quarter Back. Transferring over to the Miami Hurricanes from the Washington State Cougars has been huge for Ward and the team and performing at this level in this market is going to be pushing his Heisman credentials forward all of the time.
Cam Ward has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball and that has allowed him to pick apart the Secondaries he he faced. He should be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 3 and that should see Ward find a way to exploit this South Florida team and ultimately put the Hurricanes in a position to pull away for a very impressive win.
The last time these in-State rivals met was back in September 2013 and it was the Miami Hurricanes who left with a big road win.
They look to have all of the tools to do the same in Week 4 of the 2024 season and really make a big statement before beginning Conference play next week.
MY PICKS: Nebraska Cornhuskers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 18 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 17 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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