College Football Week 4 Picks 2024 (Friday 20th September-Saturday 21st September)

The College Football season has produced plenty of storylines already and the expanded PlayOff means more teams remain interested in the post-season push even if they have suffered a defeat.

Conference play is slowly getting going and there are some big games in Week 4, although the Picks are limited to just five different games.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: There is a very deep history of strong Football being played by the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0), but more recent times have been extremely disappointing for fans of the school.

Thirty years ago, Nebraska were entering a season that would end with a National Championship and the Cornhuskers would win three of four National Championships in this time. Getting up to or close to double digit wins per season became the norm, but the last decade has been tough and the Cornhuskers have finished with a losing record in nine of the last ten years.

Mike Riley and Scott Frost have failed to turn things around and the first season under Head Coach Matt Rhule finished at 5-7, but the Cornhuskers believe things will turn around under his guidance. Opening up this season with a perfect 3-0 record will give the team confidence, but Rhule is the first to admit that the real challenges lie ahead with Nebraska about to play their first Big Ten Conference game and in a prime time spot.

They are hosting the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) on Friday evening and both teams are Ranked inside the top 25.

It has been a much longer length of time that has passed since Illinois Fighting Irish were finishing as National Champions and they have had just a single winning season in twelve. Much like their hosts, the start made to the season will offer the fans encouragement that better is to come in 2024 with that one winning record produced under Head Coach Bret Bielema.

Despite finishg with two losing records in three seasons at the helm, Bielema has overseen an improvement in the Fighting Illini performances and winning eighteen games in three seasons is the best three year run since the turn of the century. And with three wins to open this season, Bret Bielema is looking to keep things ticking over and improving with this team, although this is just as much a testing point for his team as it is for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Both teams will be looking to pound the rock and try and get in front of the chains to allow their Quarter Backs to then make plays.

Bret Bielema has always been someone who wants his team to dominate at the line of scrimmage and his Illinois Offensive Line has begun the season playing well. However, they will also know they have yet to face a Defensive Line has solid as the one that Nebraska have been running out on the field and so it could be tough for the Fighting Illini to impose themselves as wll as they would like.

The Head Coach has challenged his Offensive Line and Running Back corps to find a way to establish the run in this game, but that looks challenging. This could make things a little tougher for Luke Altmyer at Quarter Back, even if he has performed well so far this season, and he could be faced with some pass rush pressure from the Cornhuskers, which could lead to mistakes against this ball-hawking Secondary.

Matt Rhule will be looking to keep the pressure from off his young Quarter Back and the feeling is that the Cornhuskers are going to have more success running the ball. It is not only the fact that their Offensive Line has been in good shape to open the season, but the Fighting Illini Defensive Line have had one or two gaps that have been breached and it is very important for Dylan Raiola to be given an opportunity from third and manageable spots on the field.

The freshman Quarter Back has impressed early, but this is arguably his toughest test against a Secondary that will give him unfamiliar looks. Trying to work that out and allow routes to develop from behind the chains would be tough for Dylan Raiola, but if the Cornhuskers can pound the rock as they have been, he should have a much more comfortable evening.

Turnovers have inspired the Fighting Illini this season and so Raiola will have to be careful, but he is being well protected by his Offensive Line and the Quarter Back has had a knack for feeling the pass rush and moving away from it.

Ultimately the Cornhuskers can put Dylan Raiola in the best position to succeed by running the ball effectively and they will feel they can beat an Illinois team that was seen off in 2023 on the road. That snapped a three game losing run for Nebraska in the series, but they can back up the 2023 win as long as the team are not overawed by being put in a spotlight situation on Friday night as Week 4 of the College Football season gets underway.

Houston Cougars @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: Two seasons ago, the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) and Houston Cougars (1-2) finished with winning records as they played out their last season as members of the American Athletic Conference before moving into the Big 12.

Both schools would have known the competition was going to ramp up, but even then, the struggles might have come as a surprise.

Cincinnati finished with a 1-8 Conference record and Houston finished with a 2-7 Conference record, but that means expectations are not nearly as great as they would have been in the 2023 season. Now both are prepared to begin Big 12 play after starting the season with three non-Conference opponents and both the Bearcats and Cougars have suffered a close loss to a Power 4 opponent.

For the Bearcats it was a 1 point loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers, while for the Houston Cougars it was a 4 point loss to the Oklahoma Sooners, who are now a member of the SEC having left the Big 12.

It is the blowout loss to the UNLV Rebels that may be particularly disappointing for the Houston Cougars and this is a tough road game considering the amount of injuries they are dealing with early in the 2024 season. To make matters tougher, it is not just the fact they are dealing with those injuries, but it is the fact that Houston have suffered major injuries that will keep some starters out for the remainder of the year.

And it not just one side of the ball, but the Cougars have been hit hard on both sides and so it is going to be tough to earn revenge against the Cincinnati Bearcats, whose sole win in the Big 12 was against Houston in 2023.

Houston did beat the Rice Owls last week so there is something positive to bring into this game, but the Cougars Offensive Line have struggled as they have needed backups to step up. This is not a team that have been able to run the ball nearly as well as they would have liked and it is tough to imagine they will have a lot more success even if the Bearcats Defensive Line have had issues.

Donovan Smith is a dual-threat Quarter Back for Houston, but the Offensive Line has been collapsing around him and that is impacting him both when he looks to scramble and when he wants some time to throw. If he does have that time, this is a Cincinnati Secondary that can struggle to stop the pass, but the Bearcats have picked up some significant pass rush pressure and can expose the injury hit Houston Offensive Line to try and stall drives.

While the Offensive unit have had some problems, the Houston Defensive unit have overcome the injuries that have been felt on this side of the ball. Linebacker Torren Coppage-El is the latest to go down through and this is going to be a significant test against a Cincinnati Offensive Line that has opened up holes for 6.2 yards per carry.

It will be strength vs strength in the trenches, but the Bearcats have to be feeling pretty confident they can keep their Quarter Back in front of the chains, which is also very significant as Brendan Sorsby looks to make good reads before throwing the ball. Overall it has been a good start to the season for Sorsby and he has avoided mistakes, which should be something he can continue to do as long as the Bearcats Offensive Line can just impose themselves up front.

They have been good in pass protection to offer their Quarter Back the time to make his plays when dropping back to pass and the Houston pass rush has not been the most effective. Strong Secondary play has to be respected, although it was the rushing numbers produced by the Bearcats which helped them upset the Cougars in November 2023.

That victory means Cincinnati have won four in a row in the series, including the last two at home, and the Bearcats may have the edge on the Offensive Line to just lean on that group to help to another win and cover against Houston.

NC State Wolfpack @ Clemson Tigers Pick: A long-time National Championship contender, the Clemson Tigers (1-1) had a miserable 2023 season and finished with a 4-4 record within the ACC. Betwen 2015 and 2022, the Tigers won seven Conference Championships and also the National Championship twice, but that does not mean the fanbase is completely happy with Head Coach Dabo Swinney.

Last season plenty of that frustration was voiced by the fans and the Head Coach defended his team and his position vigorously, although there is little doubt the pressure will have increased this time around.

The Tigers had been a regular name in the College Football PlayOff when only four teams were involved, so missing out on the new expanded format of the post-season would be a huge blow. That would be an even bigger issue when playing in a Conference where the Florida State Seminoles look significantly weaker than the team that won the Championship last season, and it will feel like reaching the Championship Game is the bare minimum for Clemson.

Some of the stronger feelings about this team may have been tempered in the Week 1 blowout to the Georgia Bulldogs- at first glance you understand losing to a major National Championship contender, but the nature of the defeat is the worry, even if the Tigers have bounced back to crush Appalachian State.

With a Bye Week behind them, the fans will be arriving at Memorial Stadium expecting the Tigers to make a very positive start to ACC Conference play as they host the NC State Wolfpack (2-1).

The Wolfpack have beaten a couple of opponents they have been expected to beat, although they have perhaps not impressed as much as some would have hoped. Like Clemson, NC State have been embarrassed by a team from the SEC which has been the meat in the sandwich of those wins over Louisiana Tech and an opponent from the FCS.

After being crushed by the Tennessee Volunteers, this will feel like a 'prove it' kind of game for the Wolfpack and the Offensive Line will be hoping to find a way to establish the run. We have a limited sample, but it should be noted that the Tigers Defensive Line have been struggling to stop the run in their first two games and so the first ambition for the Wolfpack will be to establish the ground game.

It is perhaps more important with the Wolfpack losing their starting Quarter Back and having to turn to an inexperienced CJ Bailey in what is the first road game for NC State this season. That only adds to the pressure and this Tigers Defensive unit will want to show they are much better than the one that was badly outplayed by the Georgia Bulldogs.

Generating a stronger pass rush will help, but it is also looks a good chance for Clemson to bounce back with a Bye Week to prepare and having an inexperienced Quarter Back facing them,

Cade Klubnick has plenty of experience and he is going to feel that personally he has to show a lot more after that defeat to the Bulldogs in a prime time spot. After seeing the young Tennessee Quarter Back Nico Iamaleava help the team crush the Wolfpack, Klubnick has something to aim at and this NC State Defensive unit looks vulnerable.

Straight away it has to be noted that the Defensive Line has struggled to contain the run and now they have to face this Clemson Offensive Line which is capable of breaking open lanes for big gains on the ground. That will be music to the ears of the Clemson Quarter Back who is likely going to be given plenty of time in the pocket with the Tigers playing in front of the chains.

This should allow Cade Klubnick to have his way with this NC State Secondary and the Clemson Tigers look to have an edge, especially with extra preparation time.

Revenge is another motivational tool for the Tigers who were beaten by NC State in 2023 and this feels like an opportunity for Clemson to produce a very good home win to just remind people of their own National Championship capabilities.

California Golden Bears @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: They came into the season with a huge point to prove having been an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion that was left of the College Football PlayOff. Injuries had been the factor cited, but the Florida State Seminoles (0-3) still felt snubbed and that they deserved an opportunity to play for a National Championship.

So there was plenty expected from an 'angry' team, even though some key players had left.

Perhaps the blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs in the Bowl Game should have highlighted the lack of depth in the Seminoles locker room, but even with that in mind, it has been an embarrassing start to the season.

Three games against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Boston College Eagles and Memphis Tigers looked like a positive opportunity for the Seminoles to at least get off to a strong start. However, it has been anything but and the team are struggling in almost all aspects of their Football.

Next up for the Florida State Seminoles is a third ACC Conference game and this time it is against one of the new members of the Conference with the California Golden Bears (3-0) playing their first game in the ACC after leaving the Pac-12.

Unlike professional teams, this is going to feel strange for the Golden Bears in having to travel so far for a road game in the Conference and you do have to wonder if that is going to be a factor. The start made to the season will give California plenty of confidence, but the travel is going to be a potential issue and they will not want to overlook Florida State despite the turmoil in the home camp.

Winning at the Auburn Tigers will prove that the Golden Bears can handle a tough road atmosphere, and this one might not be as difficult with the Florida State fans likely more frustrated by what their own team is doing.

The Golden Bears Offensive Line will look to establish the run and there is every chance they will be able to do that, which is key to just making sure the Offensive unit can move the chains with some consistency. It will certainly be important to just ensure the pass rush pressure is not going to stall drives and running the ball well enough will mean Fernando Mendoza can just make the plays needed to keep things ticking over.

Ultimately it is not going to be a game in which the California Golden Bears are going to have dominant Offensive numbers considering how well the Seminoles Defense have played for the most part. The bigger issue for the Seminoles is that they have struggled when they have had the ball and mistakes on that side of the ball have intensified the pressure on that Seminoles Defense.

The inability to run the ball has been a major problem for Florida State and they are not expected to have a lot of space to exploit in the trenches, which is only making things very difficult for DJ Uiagalelei who has transferred back into the ACC with the Seminoles having previously played as a Clemson Tigers.

The Quarter Back struggled in his time with the Tigers before rebuilding away from the limelight, and the Seminoles are making it clear that their start is not down to poor play from DJ Uiagalelei. He has simply not been given a lot of support by those around him, including the Offensive Line, who have also struggled when it comes to pass protection as well as run blocking.

Playing from behind the chains is never an easy place to be for any Quarter Back and especially if being given enough time is a problem.

In this game DJ Uiagalelei has to be concerned with the strong play of the Golden Bears Secondary, both in terms of yards given up through the air and with the fact the Defensive Backs have made the big plays to turn the ball over. If the Golden Bears can do that here, they are going to be able to become the fourth team to upset the Florida State Seminoles as the underdog.

Simply put, it is very hard to back the Seminoles here and California are playing well enough early in the campaign to earn the upset.

It is a long trip for California, but they have won at the Auburn Tigers and the Golden Bears look worth backing with the points being given to them.

Miami Hurricanes @ South Florida Bulls Pick: Conference play will tell us a lot more about the Miami Hurricanes (3-0), although there is every reason to be excited about the potential of this team after the start made to 2024.

A crushing win at SEC Florida Gators will have had everyone excited, although Billy Napier's team look terrible and it is not a win that has aged that well for Miami. Big wins have been secured over the last couple of weeks, but this is a signifciant step up in class compared with the last two opponents and with ACC Conference play beginning on Friday night.

Overlooking the South Florida Bulls (2-1) would be a mistake and people who point to Alabama's big win over the Bulls in Week 2 would also do well to remember that was on the road and South Florida should be a much tougher challenge in their own environment.

South Florida will also state they were only down one score mid-way through the Fourth Quarter before falling away against Alabama, so this is a big test for the Miami Hurricanes.

Everything will come down to the line of scrimmage when the Bulls have the ball and they need the Offensive Line to be able to impose themselves on this very good looking Miami Defensive Line. While the Hurricanes have been able to clamp down on the run, the Bulls have been effective when looking to establish the run and you feel the entire success South Florida will have is right here.

If they are not able to run the ball, the Offensive Line will have a real problem- they have been strong when it comes to run blocking, but pass protection has been a major issue and one that the Miami Hurricanes can exploit from what they have shown already this season. Byrum Brown has been relying on the strong run support and the Quarter Back could have a tough day in the office if he is being forced to throw from third and long situations.

The Bulls Defensive Line will be looking to show they can help their entire unit by shutting down the run, but this is a tough, tough Miami Offensive Line to push back.

They have helped the Hurricanes find a really good balance Offensively and the road favourite will be expecting to establish the run and just make things that much easier for Cam Ward at Quarter Back. Transferring over to the Miami Hurricanes from the Washington State Cougars has been huge for Ward and the team and performing at this level in this market is going to be pushing his Heisman credentials forward all of the time.

Cam Ward has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball and that has allowed him to pick apart the Secondaries he he faced. He should be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 3 and that should see Ward find a way to exploit this South Florida team and ultimately put the Hurricanes in a position to pull away for a very impressive win.

The last time these in-State rivals met was back in September 2013 and it was the Miami Hurricanes who left with a big road win.

They look to have all of the tools to do the same in Week 4 of the 2024 season and really make a big statement before beginning Conference play next week.

MY PICKS: Nebraska Cornhuskers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 18 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

California Golden Bears + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 17 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2019 (September 20-21)

The last two weeks have been very difficult as far as the College Football Picks have gone with back to back losing weeks hurting the pride.

It is a very long season so there is no reason to panic just yet, but I do want a much better performance all around in Week 4 which gets underway on Thursday.

This has been a busy week for myself so the NFL Picks will be out either late Friday or early Saturday as I don't have a play for Thursday Night Football. Instead the College Football Week 4 Picks post is up in that place with further picks to be added to this thread.

Hopefully the turn around begins in Week 4. Below I have also updated the season stats with Week 3 results added to the numbers.


Utah Utes @ USC Trojans Pick: Schools like USC are not used to missing out on the big New Year's Day Bowl Games, let alone the post-season entirely so the pressure is increasing on Clay Helton as Head Coach of the Trojans day by day. Losing to the BYU Cougars in Week 3 means the Trojans are not expected to be challenging for a PlayOff berth, but they are coming in off a 5-7 season and you would have to wonder what the plan will be if USC are beaten at home by the Utah Utes on Friday.

Things are not being helped by the fact that JT Daniels has been lost for the season and the starting Quarter Back Kedon Slovis was fourth on the depth chart a few months ago. Slovis showed some real promise in the win over the Stanford Cardinal, but his inexperience was on display in the Week 3 loss to the BYU Cougars and now has to face the very strong looking Utah Defensive unit.

In most cases you would think a team would try and protect a Quarter Back like Slovis by running the ball, but that looks a very difficult task for the Trojans in this game. The Utes Defensive Line has only given up 2.7 yards per carry for the season and they will feel keeping Slovis in third and long spots will be a win for them.

At that point they can unleash something of a pass rush to try and get after Slovis and force the young Quarter Back to make errors. The Utah Secondary might be amongst the very best in College Football and this does feel like a very difficult test for the USC Trojans and especially if the players have perhaps lost faith in their Head Coach.

For Utah things could not have gone much better in their 3-0 start to 2019 and the blow out win at rivals BYU will only have increased the confidence and belief around this team. This is an experienced team on both sides of the ball and being able to call on a veteran Quarter Back and Running Back gives the Utes an edge and the chance to win their first road game at the USC Trojans in over 100 years.

I expect Zack Moss will be able to help establish the run with the Utah Offensive Line looking like one that will expect to push around the Trojans Defensive Line. Moss and Quarter Back Tyler Huntley have both had strong showings on the ground and it should keep the Utes in a good position to move the chains, while it will also be important to open up play-action for Huntley.

The USC Secondary has not really played up to the level you would expect, but they did lose key players from that unit in the NFL Draft and Utah can take advantage. If they are throwing out of third and short you would really like the chances of Utah moving the chains throughout this game and I do think they are capable of winning it.

A poor record in Los Angeles to face USC has to be a concern when backing Utah, especially as they are favoured to win this game. However USC have been a poor home team under Clay Helton when it comes to the spread, while they are a miserable 2-7 against the spread as the underdog.

USC are also 0-11 against the spread when set as the underdog of less than 8 points and I am going to back Utah to not only win this game, but make a statement they are ready to compete for a spot in the College Football PlayOffs.


LSU Tigers @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: I was not really fully convinced by the LSU Tigers and thought they might have some difficulties when visiting the Texas Longhorns in a legit road game in Week 2. They didn't just the win the game, but the Tigers won well and now you have to see a team that could potentially gatecrash the College Football PlayOffs. The schedule is not the most straight-forward and could be the biggest test for the Tigers, but they can open SEC play by laying down a marker to the likes of Alabama and Auburn.

To be fair to the Crimson Tide, they did win very well at South Carolina in Week 3 so the Tigers have to travel to Nashville focusing on themselves as they have been given a very big spread to cover. It is an exact number that the Georgia Bulldogs beat the Vanderbilt Commodores by in Week 1 of the 2019 season, but the Commodores are coming into this one off a Bye.

Head Coach Derek Mason will be hoping it has given his team a chance to just hit the reset button after back to back blow out defeats to open the season. In his time as Head Coach here, Vanderbilt have not played well coming out of a Bye Week and I think that has to be a concern when you think of the level that LSU have been operating at to move to 3-0.

Ed Orgeron has to be very happy with what he has seen from his Tigers team, but this is not a Head Coach who is going to be easily satisfied. The Offense is working well overall, but Orgeron will be looking to establish the run and ask the Offensive Line to open much bigger holes than they have through the first three games of the season.

LSU certainly have a chance of doing that because the Commodores Defensive Line has been giving up huge chunk plays and allowing 6.3 yards per carry from their first two games. If the Vanderbilt Defensive Line can't clamp down a little bit, this is going to be a very long day for them as they face a Tigers team that may finally have an elite Quarter Back running things.

Joe Burrow didn't quite reach 3000 passing yards in 2018, but the experience has clearly helped the Quarter Back take the next step. He is helping the Tigers average way over 400 passing yards per game and Burrow has been well protected which has allowed him to decimate Secondaries. Now he will be licking his lips at facing a Vanderbilt Secondary that has allowed 332 passing yards per game and who have been unable to generate any pressure up front.

I fully expect to see the Tigers moving the ball very comfortably whenever the Offensive unit has it in their hands and Burrow can have another big game. However I do think the LSU Defensive unit has a point to make having not really started off in the manner you would expect when you see they have yet to play one of the top teams from the SEC.

The win at Texas was clearly a challenging test for the Secondary, but the Tigers will be disappointed with the amount of passing success teams have had against them so far. This is an area that they will need to improve to achieve their aims in 2019, but they should have a much better statistical day when facing the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Up front it has proven to be very difficult to run the ball against LSU and the Commodores Offensive Line have also had issues opening holes for any of the Running Backs. I expect the Tigers to keep Vanderbilt in third and long spots, but Riley Neal at Quarter Back has thrown for over 250 passing yards per game in 2019 and might exploit one or two holes that LSU have left.

Unfortunately for Neal, he is not going to have an easy day waiting for those holes to open up if the Offensive Line can't protect him better than they have. From third and long the Tigers should be able to get after Neal and force errant throws and I think that will lead to LSU pulling away and blowing out this SEC opponent.

LSU have been very strong in the SEC under Ed Orgeron with a 12-4 record against the spread in the last two seasons while Vanderbilt are 1-6 against the spread in their last two seasons as the home underdog. The Tigers are also 7-1 against the spread as road favourites of more than 12 points when their opponent is coming in off a straight up loss.

There is no doubt this is a big spread if Vanderbilt have fixed some issues through their Bye Week, but the Tigers look like a very good team at the moment and I will look for Joe Burrow to make enough plays to move them clear over the course of the game.


Auburn Tigers @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: The SEC looks to be as competitive a Conference as ever and in Week 4 we have a very big game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Auburn Tigers. These two teams are both in the same SEC West Division which is headed up by Alabama and LSU so the losing team will already be behind the black ball, while the winning team will move forward and expect to compete for a Division title.

The Auburn Tigers come in with a 3-0 record and their biggest victory is the one over the Oregon Ducks. The Tigers rallied from 15 points behind to earn the victory which has given the players a shot of confidence after a relatively disappointing 8-5 record in 2018 and Auburn will feel very good about their chances of being unbeaten going into the game against LSU if they can win at Kyle Field for the third time in a row since the Aggies joined this Conference.

Texas A&M are 2-1 having beaten two overmatched opponents, but falling to the Clemson Tigers on the road. The Aggies did not really compete against Clemson so this is a big test for them, but the experience of Kellen Mond could be a real factor in the battle of the Quarter Backs.

The teams have a similar style of play as they look to establish the run to open up the passing game and so far both teams have been successful doing that. However Clemson held the Aggies to 2 yards per carry in the win over them in Week 2 and that will be music to the ears of the Tigers of Auburn whose Defensive Line is amongst the very best in College Football.

Auburn will be looking to stop Texas A&M up front and force Mond to beat them through the air. The pass rush pressure generated by the Tigers could also help slow down the Aggies in this one, although Mond has shown enough in his young career to believe he can make some big plays and try and put his team in a position to win the game.

This is an Auburn Defensive unit that has played well though and I expect the Tigers to try and control the clock when they have the ball in the hands of their own Offense. Bo Nix is a young Quarter Back so Auburn have to try and help him as much as possible by giving the ball to JaTarvious Whitlow and have him try and establish the run.

The Aggies Defensive Line have produced some strong numbers up front in their first three games, but some of those are down to the level of opposition faced. They did play well against Clemson though and that means the Aggies have to be respected and both trenches are going to be the key to the outcome of this game.

Whitlow should have some successes though with the way the Auburn Offensive Line has been playing and that should slow the Texas A&M pass rush and give Nix a bit more time at Quarter Back. It is a tough road environment to play in for any young player, but the Auburn Defensive unit can help the Quarter Back and I think this has the makings of a close game and thus having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks very appealing with the underdog.

There are some nice trends in favour of Texas A&M that does just cloud things, but the road team is 6-1 against the spread in the last seven between these teams. Texas A&M have been a strong home favourite under Jimbo Fisher, but I think Auburn will use the motivation of being a dog to better effect than they have in recent years and I think the can keep this close and potentially win outright.

I expect the Auburn Offensive Line to just perform slightly better than their Texas A&M counterparts and that can be the reason the Tigers are able to cover on the day.


Oregon Ducks @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: It is not very often you will see the Stanford Cardinal down as a home underdog and this is a team that usually has thrived in the spot by going 5-0 against the spread on the last five occasions it has happened. However I am going to look for that streak to end when they face Pac-12 North rivals Oregon Ducks on Saturday in Week 4 of the 2019 season.

Injuries have crippled the Stanford Cardinal who have opened up with a 1-2 record having suffered blow out defeats to USC and UCF in back to back weeks. They have never won fewer than eight games under David Shaw, but even that mark looks like one that may be beyond Stanford with one of the more difficult schedules on paper.

KJ Costello was back at Quarter Back last week, but the Offensive Line is down a couple of starters and all of the pressure is on Costello to make the plays needed to move the chains. Bryce Love has moved on to the NFL and it was always going to be difficult to replace his production at Running Back, but the injuries on the Offensive Line are also contributing to Stanford's struggles to establish the run.

They are not expected to have a lot of joy in this one as they try and move the ball against an Oregon Defensive Line holding teams to under 3 yards per carry. That adds to the pressure on Costello at Quarter Back who is trying to build some chemistry with young Wide Receivers on an Offense that returned just 4 starters from 2018.

Costello is not expected to have a lot of success throwing into this Secondary from third and long spots and he will also be under pressure by the Oregon pass rush. With the Ducks slowing down the Stanford Offense, Justin Herbert and the Oregon Offensive unit could have a very good day putting up strong numbers with field advantage likely going to be won by them for much of the day.

Justin Herbert surprisingly turned down the chance to enter the NFL Draft to stay in school with Oregon for one more year and it will be a good decision if he can take the Ducks to the Pac-12 Championship. The defeat to the Auburn Tigers will likely prevent Oregon from making the College Football PlayOff, but they should have won that game and bounced back to move to 2-1 heading into Week 4.

He will be hoping that there is some consistent support from the running game to help keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots, That has been the biggest problem for the Oregon Offense so far, but Herbert has been lighting up the scoreboard and looks to be facing a Secondary that can't help but give up some big plays.

The Stanford pass rush has not been as effective as they would like and the Secondary have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game. It should be a good chance for Herbert to show what he is capable of at a reasonable kick off as far as Eastern Time viewers are concerned and I think the Ducks can snap their run of losses to the Cardinal.

Stanford did have a strong trend as a big underdog, but that was snapped last week and the favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series. This feels like a game in which Stanford have too many injuries on the Offensive Line to beat an Oregon team playing with triple revenge and I will look for the Ducks to produce a statement win with a cover of a very big number.


UCLA Bruins @ Washington State Cougars Pick: Most were expecting the Washington State Cougars to take a step backwards having won 20 games in the last two seasons while having Quarter Backs who are now starting in the NFL (through injury, but still). However Mike Leach has got his system firmly in place in Pullman and Anthony Gordon looks to become the latest Quarter Back to come in and have a big season through the air.

The Cougars are 3-0 as they enter Pac-12 play and this is a team who will certainly feel they are a contender in the North Division. The schedule is tougher so it is hard to imagine Washington State reaching the 11 wins they earned last season, but the start has built confidence and they are big favourites to see off the UCLA Bruins in Week 4.

While the Cougars have begun 3-0, UCLA have lost all three games played and they have been blown out at home by the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 3. Chip Kelly needs time to get his system entrenched here, but most were hoping for a quicker fix than what they are seeing as the Bruins struggle on both sides of the ball.

The fans have been hoping some changes would be made with the most logical being the starting Quarter Back after Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to struggle. Some of the problems have to be attributed to the Offensive Line which has not opened up running lanes as they would like nor protect Thompson-Robinson at the Quarter Back position.

There is a chance that the Bruins get on track in this one as Washington State have allowed 4.7 yards per carry, but any third and long spots are going to be tough for UCLA to convert. The Cougars Secondary has played well thanks to an effective pass rush up front and Thompson-Robinson has to be wary of the turnovers which have been blighting his performances in the first three weeks of the season.

Moving the ball could be tough for the UCLA Bruins, but the same can't be expected of the Washington State Cougars. Max Borghi has begun things on the ground with the Running Back helping Washington State to some big chunk plays on the ground which opens up the passing game for Anthony Gordon.

Borghi and the Cougars are picking up 5.1 yards per carry and will be running into a UCLA Defensive Line which has struggled to bring down runners. It will mean Anthony Gordon has play-action and short yardage situations in front of him and so far the young Quarter Back has been pretty special with 12 Touchdown passes thrown along with just 2 Interceptions.

Washington State are averaging almost 500 passing yards per game which is clearly not sustainable, but I do think the Cougars will have a lot of success in this one too. UCLA's Secondary have allowed a little under 280 passing yards per game and I do think the Cougars will have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball that allows them to move the ball up and and down the field with a lot of success all day.

These schools are playing one another on the Football field for the first time since 2016 and in that time UCLA have slipped back and Washington State have become much more competitive.

This is a massive number for Washington State to cover, but I do think they are playing well enough to do that. They can't overlook UCLA with a big game against the Utah Utes on deck, but I don't think that will be the case at home and I think the Cougars will have too much Offense on the day.

MY PICKS: Utah Utes - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 24 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Season 2019: 11-14, - 4.08 Units (25 Units Staked, - 16.32% Yield)