Boxing Picks 2023- Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo (September 30th)

It feels like every weekend in Boxing we have some solid Knock Outs and some controversy and we got some of both last week.

Zhilei Zhang has put himself in a very strong position to earn a major World Title fight after beating Joe Joyce for a second time.

A damaged eye forced Joyce out of the first fight, but there was no questioning the manner of the second loss as Zhang made true of his nickname 'Big Bang' when catching The Juggernaut with a perfectly timed right hook for a Knock Out of the Year contender.

I expected more from Joyce, but this could simply be an opponent who has his number.

Faster hands and from the southpaw stance is going to the problem for many, and it was quickly clear in the rematch that Joe Joyce simply did not know how to deal with the challenge in front of him.

At 38 years old you can understand why many are talking about Joe Joyce perhaps needing to consider retirement- he is going to find it is a long road back to the top from here and Joyce has enough tape to suggest that many will believe he is in the 'who needs him' club.

Others may feel the chin is no longer the 'weapon' Joe Joyce thought it was and that he could be set for more big losses like the one suffered on Saturday, but the Heavyweight deserves to be given a chance to try and climb up off of the floor if he chooses to move in that direction.

Plotting that route back up to the top is going to be difficult- the likes of Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua are unlikely to want to go in with Joyce, but the rematch with Daniel Dubois could do decent business. In the Heavyweight Division, you are always just a couple of semi-decent wins away from being talked about as a potential World Title contender and Joyce may feel he deserves to give it one more crack to see if he can get into position for that kind of bout.

Controversy had already been courted by DAZN and Matchroom when adding Conor Benn to the card in Orlando (he did not look the best after the long layoff, but Benn did enough to win his fight), but the judging on the night was pretty pathetic.

Sandy Ryan somehow could only earn a Draw in a fight where she did the basics of Boxing- hit and don't get hit- effectively for at least seven of the Ten Rounds scheduled. Even the home fans were booing and Jessica McCaskill almost looked embarrassed with the 97/93 card given in her favour, while it is another case of Boxing hurting itself.

Some close Decisions can frustrate, but it is much more difficult to accept what the Judges claim they are seeing when 99% of viewers only see one winner.

It is expected that Sandy Ryan will get her rematch and ultimately beat the former Undisputed Champion later this year, but it is not ideal that she cannot move past Jessica McCaskill into Unification fights of her own thanks to the poor judging we continue to see.

We have been treated pretty well as Boxing fans in 2023 with big fights being signed and delivered and this weekend is another with the Undisputed vs Undisputed Super Middleweight World Title fight in Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Jermell Charlo.

Matchroom are running a card in London too so it is a good day for DAZN subscribers in the United Kingdom having had confirmation that the Canelo-Charlo fight will be shown on that channel too.

It is the Cruiserweight King Jai Opetaia who will be headlining in London against Jordan Thompson before the big card from Las Vegas. This looks a decent main event, although it has perhaps gone under the radar with its place in the Boxing schedule and the winner could go onto some big Unification nights.

Just as I was ready to post this thread, news broke that Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk have signed contracts to finally put the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship together. Unsurprisingly it is going to occur in Saudi Arabia at some point between December 2023 and March 2024, but this can only be good news for fans and ultimately the rest of the Division.

Assuming a rematch has also been agreed, the Heavyweight jam might finally begin to clear up over the next eighteen months and some big fights could soon be put together. It would not surprise me if both Fury and Usyk retire at the end of the double header if there has been a clear winner produced, and that should soon open things up for the next generation of Heavyweights to really get into the World Title mix.

It does leave some of the current generation scrambling around- the Deontay Wilder vs Anthony Joshua negotiations have broken down again- but there are some big nights to be made involving those two, Zhilei Zhang, Andy Ruiz Jr, Filip Hrgovic and potentially even Joe Joyce and Daniel Dubios.

Out of those fighters, Dubois is the one with a bit more time to rebuild, but the rest need to get active in what has been a slower than expected year for the Division.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo

When Canelo Alvarez signed a three fight deal with PBC, most anticipated that he would be fighting Charlo first up.

However, the feeling was that Middleweight Champion Jermall Charlo would return after a long time out of the ring to challenge the Undisputed Super Middleweight King. Instead it is Jermell Charlo, the Undisputed Light Middleweight Champion, who is moving up two weight Divisions to take on Canelo for all of the marbles in the 168 pound Division.

While he has not had a layoff nearly as long as his twin brother, Jermell Charlo's bid for the Undisputed Super Middleweight crown surprised the majority of fans and those inside of Boxing circles. It has been sixteen months since we last saw Jermell in the ring and in that time he has delayed the mandatory World Title fight with Tim Tsyzu on a couple of occasions too.

No one is going to blame Charlo for taking on a bigger challenge and he has long sounded pretty confident of being able to hand what Canelo Alvarez could bring into the ring. The latter has been operating at a much higher weight class for some time, but the head to head photos have shown that there is little in terms of size between these two and and some may even say that Jermell Charlo has some of the size advantages.

Fighting at 168 for the first time will be challenging of course, but Jermell Charlo has shown he has decent stamina and enough pop to be worthy of the shot.

He has lost before, but Jermell Charlo has made up for that with a strong win over Tony Harrison in the rematch, while also beating Brian Castano in a rematch after a draw the first time around. The skills are there to win a fight like this one, while any of the suggested decline in Canelo Alvarez may leave the Mexican a little vulnerable to an upset.

Suggestions have also been made that Canelo Alvarez has shied away from fighting Afro American fighters since his loss to Floyd Mayweather and that has to be on the mind of the long time pound for pound superstar. There is plenty of motivating factors for Canelo who has not looked himself in his last three fights and a long career could be catching up with him.

Opposing Canelo Alvarez in Vegas is never easy- he has had some very close Decisions there a couple of times in his career. Even what looked like a clear loss to Dmitry Bivol was very close on the cards and there is a feeling that Jermell Charlo could have some difficulties winning this one in the eyes of the judges.

Canelo has looked like he wants to make a point this week and Jermell Charlo has been out of the ring for quite a while, which makes the upset harder to believe in.

Of course we have all heard Charlo talk about the vulnerabilities of Canelo, something that the latter has been mentioning this week, and so there is pressure on the fighter coming up two Divisions to be more than competitive. However, winning on the cards looks like it will be tough and Canelo Alvarez is not going to be someone that is easy to stop having taken shots from much bigger opponents than Jermell Charlo.

It has been a couple of years since Canelo last produced a Stoppage.

However, the length of Jermell Charlo might offer Canelo chances to work the body, where he has been so effective, and the seventeen month layoff for the Undisputed Light Middleweight World Champion is a long one that could be tough to deal with.

An angry, motivated and healthier Canelo Alvarez is still one of the top Boxers in the world and the feeling is that he wants to make a statement by forcing a Stoppage in this one. The question is whether his hand injury has taken away some of that power hitting and especially over the full Twelve Rounds.

I do think there will be some worrying moments for Jermell Charlo down the stretch as Canelo looks to put an exclamation mark down on the fight, especially with Charlo having been out of the ring for as long as he has. It may perhaps seen Jermell Charlo begin to think about a 'win' merely of getting to the cards and Canelo Alvarez is likely to have his hand raised in that fashion.

No one should be doubting the quality of the main event in Las Vegas and it is a card with some big names to back up the headline act.

I am really looking forward to Jesus Ramos vs Erickson Lubin in what feels like something like a crossroads fight at this stage of their respective careers. The veteran is Lubin who has operated at a higher level than Ramos, but the latter has a bit of momentum and is stepping up as a favourite in this fight.

Jesus Ramos does hold a win over Brian Mendoza, which looks even better now Mendoza is holding the Interim WBC World Title, and at 22 years old is still growing as a fighter.

Unsurprisingly Erickson Lubin thinks this is coming too soon for Ramos and this could be a really fun fight with both carrying plenty of power. The edge might be with the younger, unbeaten fighter, but it might depend on what Erikson Lubin has left in the tank.

Both fighters might take some time getting into their rhythm in the southpaw vs southpaw stance, but this should catch fire and one of the two may be forced to be saved by the referee or the corner in the second half of the Twelve Rounder.

Yordenis Ugas is also returning on the main card and it will be the first time we have seen him since the brutal loss to Errol Spence Jr in April 2022.

It will soon be seen as to how much Ugas has left in the tank with a tough match up against Mario Barrios.

Losses to Gervonta Davis and Keith Thurman might suggest that Barrios is not quite up to the very top level, but he has a fight under his belt this year as he got back to winning ways following those back to back defeats.

Despite only recently coming up to Welterweight, Mario Barrios has size to cause problems for Yordenis Ugas, who will have to use all of his experience to win this one on the cards.

The main card will feature four fights, but those in Las Vegas will also benefit from seeing Frank Sanchez making sure he is ticking over as the unbeaten Heavyweight continues to search for a big fight, and they will also have The Nail Oleksandr Gvozdyk continuing his return after retiring in the aftermath of a defeat to Artur Beterbiev.

Both should win early in their respective bouts before looking for bigger fights in 2024.

There are a couple of rival cards going head to head in the United Kingdom and the biggest fight looks to be the World Cruiserweight Title on the line in London.

Jai Opetaia upset Maris Breidis to become the King of the Division, but injury has meant he has been out of the ring since July 2022.

Some big Unifications were spoken about, but those have not come off and Matchroom have instead looked to begin their new partnership with the Champion by having him come to London to take on an unbeaten British fighter in Jordan Thompson.

The latter is a big Cruiserweight and has passed all tests so far, but he is taking a big leap into this one and the feeling is that he will eventually break down.

Jordan Thompson can come again, but Matchroom are looking to showcase the talent of Jai Opetaia and the Australian can warm to his task and earn the Stoppage.

One of the fighters who has given Jordan Thompson his biggest scare is Vasil Ducar and he is on the undercard of the main event.

He dropped Thompton in the Tenth Round of their fight, but Ducar was pretty well beaten on the cards.

There is no doubting his toughness and it could be difficult for Cheavon Clarke to force a Stoppage, although the unbeaten Cruiserweight should have far too much on the cards. The layers expect Clarke to find the Stoppage having put away five of his six previously defeated opponents inside the distance, but Ducar can just show some veteran experience to hear the final bell in this Ten Rounder.

A fight that has flown under the radar features Murat Gassiev and Otto Wallin at Heavyweight.

The former has been very inactive since losing to Oleksandr Usyk in the World Boxing Super Series Final of a Cruiserweight tournament in July 2018. This is only the fifth fight Gassiev has had since then after the move to Heavyweight and he has totalled just eight Rounds in a little over five years.

Otto Wallin is best known for almost stopping Tyson Fury on cuts, but out of the ring issues have meant the Swedish Heavyweight has not been able to build on that unexpected performance. He has won five fights in a row with some solid veterans seen off and it is a big surprise to see the southpaw as the wide underdog in this one.

Perhaps something has already been decided, but Otto Wallin is the superior fighter at this weight and Murat Gassiev was well beaten by southpaw Usyk in the aforementioned Final. The underdog looks a very big price and almost has to be taken on, even if the price smells fishy.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jesus Ramos-Erickson Lubin to End Between 7-12 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Yordenis Ugas to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)

Oleksandr Gvozdyk to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Jai Opetaia to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Cheavon Clarke to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Otto Wallin to Win @ 3.75 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2023: 40-78, - 29.72 Units (221 Units Staked, - 13.48% Yield)

College Football Week 5 Picks 2023 (September 30th)

We might still be in the 'jockeying' stage of the long run up to the College Football PlayOffs, but there are one or two teams that are already facing a massive climb if they are going to get back into contention.

The Clemson Tigers suffered a second loss of the season and that likely means curtains for their chances of reaching the PlayOffs, even if we have yet to reach October. The Big Ten East Division looks loaded with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all looking strong, but they are likely to feast on one another which means only one of those three teams is likely going to be invited into the mix for the National Championship.

Teams like Oklahoma and Texas will want to finish their time in the Big 12 with a flourish, while the USC Trojans might be the best of a pretty good looking Pac-12 Conference.

And you have to consider the Georgia Bulldogs the favourites right now having a long unbeaten run behind them and with the rest of the SEC still playing catch up.

Things can change very quickly in the College Football ranks and the Buckeyes almost fell to an important loss in Week 4. A late Touchdown helped them overcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with just one second left in the Fourth Quarter, but the Fighting Irish fans will be sickened by the mistakes made by the Coaching Staff at the end of that game as they played Defense with one player short of the eleven allowed on the field.

It happened in back to back plays at the end of the game and that is absolutely on the Coaching staff- it is also a moment that many other teams around the College Football ranks will have felt regret on behalf of the Fighting Irish as a loss for the Buckeyes would have made it very difficult for Ohio State to potentially be considered as a PlayOff team without winning the Big Ten Championship.

Week 5 will really see the Conference games getting going and that likely means big changes in the Rankings in the weeks and months ahead. Right now the feeling is that the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines, Texas Longhorns and USC Trojans are leading the way for the final four positions to compete for the National Championship, but those teams have to negotiate a long and winding road filled with obstacles before we get into the December Bowl Games.

All of those teams, and plenty others, have to keep focused on a game by game basis and make sure they avoid the pitfalls that can await at every turn.

USC Trojans @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: You can never get too carried away about Rankings in September, but the Pac-12 Conference looks like it is going out with a bang in 2023.

Next year the Conference is going to have a very different feel, if it can survive the fact that only two schools are currently a part of the Pac-12 for 2024, but this looks to be a loaded one in 2023 and one that could potentially send two teams to the PlayOffs.

We are still a long way away from that outcome, but you also cannot ignore the fact that twelve teams are playing in the Pac-12 this season and five of them are unbeaten through the first month of the College Football regular season.

One of the teams that have fallen are the upstart Colorado Buffaloes (3-1) who had been unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the season before being thumped by the Oregon Ducks. Head Coach Deion Sanders won't be too downbeat about the loss, but he will also be looking for a reaction from his players, which will be challenging considering the USC Trojans (4-0) are coming to town.

The Trojans are lead by Caleb Williams, who many are tipping to be the Number 1 Overall Pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and he is the Quarter Back of a USC Offensive unit that is piling up the yards and points. They did need a big Fourth Quarter to avoid the upset when visiting the Arizona State Sun Devils in Week 4, but the feeling is that the Trojans would have been circling this game at the Buffaloes considering the noise around a team being led by Coach Prime.

It may have served as a distraction for the Trojans, but ultimately they did win by 14 points on the road and remain unbeaten for the season. There are some tough opponents to negotiate between now and the end of the season for USC if they are going to make the PlayOffs, which has to be the aim, but it does feel they are going into Boulder at the right time.

A 36 point loss at Oregon will have just tempered some of the enthusiasm which has built up around the Buffaloes, especially as this is very early into the project for the new Head Coach and his team. They have overachieved by moving into a 3-0 position, and the headlines generated by the Buffaloes have certainly gotten under the skin of other Head Coaches.

It will likely mean more are trying to run up the score on the Buffaloes and this feels like a big opportunity for the USC Trojans to have a very big Offensive day. Travis Hunter is a huge loss for the Colorado Buffaloes, who could also be without Shilo Sanders in Week 5 and it makes it very difficult to imagine a scenario in which Caleb Williams and the USC Offense is not able to have a big day.

The Offensive Line is opening up some big lanes for the Running Backs, and this Colorado Defensive Line is allowing 5.3 yards per carry, while the absence of Hunter and potentially Shilo Sanders is going to leave the Secondary vulnerable. The Buffaloes are already allowing almost 270 passing yards per game and Caleb Williams is likely to be given ample time to surpass that average in this game.

USC are averaging 55 points per game so the challenge for the Buffaloes is going to be trying to match them on the other side of the ball. Shedeur Sanders is the Quarter Back of the team and has some Draft talk around him, but Coach Prime is adamant that his son will not be heading to the NFL at the end of this season and instead should follow the Caleb Williams route of earning a bit more experience before perhaps moving up into the pros as the top Draft Pick.

As good as Shedeur Sanders has looked, he has been impacted by the absence of Travis Hunter, a two way player, and the fact he is playing behind a shaky Offensive Line. That Colorado Offensive Line has really struggled to do much in the run game all season and are unlikely to get much change out of this USC Defensive Line, but they have also struggled mightily in pass protection and that has led to way too many hits on Sanders at Quarter Back.

Seven Sacks were taken against the Oregon Ducks in the loss in Week 4 and the Trojans have a fierce pass rush which is only going to be emboldened if they are getting the Buffaloes into third and long situations. Shedeur Sanders will have some successes, but he is going to face plenty of pressure all day and it could be another tough day in the office for the Colorado Buffaloes, even if they have two more wins in 2023 than they managed in the whole of 2022.

In November 2022, the USC Trojans blew out the Colorado Buffaloes by 38 points at home, while the previous year they won by 23 points here in Boulder.

Lincoln Riley knows this will be a tough game for the Trojans, but they look to have a clear edge on both sides of the ball and USC can put a statement win on the board in this road game, which will have plenty of eyes tuning in.

Clemson Tigers @ Syracuse Orange Pick: It has felt like there was very little room for error for the Clemson Tigers (2-2) since the opening week upset to the Duke Blue Devils. Losing to the Florida State Seminoles in Week 4 will have really hurt considering the statistical edge that the Tigers had in that game and it has dropped Clemson to 0-2 within the Conference leaving them with a long road back to even make the Championship Game, never mind the PlayOff.

Losses to the Seminoles and Blue Devils makes it that much more difficult for the Clemson Tigers and they are facing another unbeaten Conference opponent in Week 5 of the season.

This time it is the Syracuse Orange (4-0), who have benefited from a largely weak schedule to open the season. Head Coach Dino Babers will be reminding his team that while the Clemson Tigers are 2-2, this is clearly the toughest test that Syracuse will have faced this year ahead of big games against the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.

Winning will certainly give the Orange confidence to take into those games, but they will have to be better than what we have seen this season if they are going to beat a team as good as the Clemson Tigers. The latter certainly have a Defensive unit that is capable of shutting down Syracuse and the game is likely to be decided in the trenches on this side of the ball.

While the Syracuse Offensive Line have helped the team rip off some big gains on the ground, the Clemson Tigers Defensive Line has been very good at clamping down on the run all season. This is going to be strength versus strength on this side of the ball, but the Tigers have been improving this season and the feeling is that they can win out and force Syracuse to beat them through the air.

Garrett Shrader has not played badly at Quarter Back, but you do have to consider the level of competition and this time he is playing a decent Clemson Secondary. He certainly should have some time to make his plays, although the Offensive Line might have to hold off the pass rush longer than usual if Clemson are able to lock down on the run and force the Orange to operate from third and long.

Avoiding third and long will be the key for the Clemson Tigers too as they look to impose their will in the trenches on the Offensive side of the ball. The early season form of the Syracuse Defensive Line has been strong, but you cannot ignore the level of competition and this Clemson Offensive Line has shown it can bully opponents up front.

Cade Klubnik is showing that he can be very good at this level having thrown almost 300 yards with a passing Touchdown in the loss to the Florida State Seminoles. Fumbles were an issue for the Quarter Back in that defeat, but he looks like someone who will improve as this season goes on.

The Offensive Line has given Cade Klubnik time to make his plays and the numbers have followed. It has been a good start for the Syracuse Orange Secondary, but Klubnik will feel his Offensive team-mates have the edge over the Defenders and that could show up in this game.

Clemson might have a strong winning run to protect against the Orange, but the last couple of wins have been by a combined 9 points.

It does raise some doubt about the Tigers covering this spread mark, especially if Clemson are still trying to pick themselves up emotionally from the defeat to the Florida State Seminoles. The upcoming game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons is unlikely to be a distraction though and Syracuse may struggle to cope with the expectation of being unbeaten ahead of facing a tough Conference rival.

Nothing will come easy in this game, but the Clemson Tigers might do enough to win by a Touchdown to overcome the spread set.

Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: Being successful in the College Football ranks means a high turnover of personnel from season to season as players choose to move onto the NFL.

That is the case for the Georgia Bulldogs (4-0), but the defending Champions are creating a dynasty around Athens and they have made another strong start to the season. Not many would be betting on the Bulldogs missing the College Football PlayOff, but Head Coach Kirby Smart will be keen to remind his players that tough tests are around every corner in the SEC.

The tough, tight win over the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 3 will have just been an eye opener for the players and the Bulldogs will also know that every road game in the Conference will be challenging. This week they are facing the Auburn Tigers (3-1) who were dominated in their own opening SEC game against the Texas A&M Aggies last week as the Tigers ended up on the wrong side of a blowout loss.

It really doesn't help Auburn's cause that they are still not sure who should be the starting Quarter Back- last week they used three different players in that position. None of those players impressed enough to believe they have taken control of the Quarter Back position, but it does sound like Payton Thorne will begin this game.

No matter who gets the call, facing the Georgia Defensive unit is going to be a daunting task for Auburn's Quarter Back.

We have yet to see the Bulldogs get into the kind of form that would take them to a National Championship again, but they do match up pretty well with the Tigers. While the Auburn Offensive Line will want to control the clock by establishing the run, which also eases the pressure on Thorne at Quarter Back, the Georgia Defensive Line have been stout up front.

They have lost some key players on the Line who made big contributions as pass rushers last season and Georgia have yet to generate the same pressure up front, but this is a Secondary that has played the pass very well. If they can at least clamp down on the run up front, the Bulldogs will believe they can force a mistake or two from Payton Thorne and ultimately move into a position to set up short fields for their own Offensive unit.

It is important for Georgia as they continue to improve under the guidance of Carson Beck at Quarter Back having taken over as the starter. He played some snaps in the National Championship Game last season, and Beck has some strong passing numbers to start this year's push to win it all.

The whole Offensive unit had some difficult moments in the win over the South Carolina Gamecocks, but Carson Beck may be facing a weaker Defensive unit in this one. For starters the Quarter Back is likely to get some solid support from his Offensive Line as they grade the road for some big running plays and that should mean Carson Beck is playing in front of the chains.

Last week the Tigers could not contain the Texas A&M running attack and still gave up almost 200 passing yards in the contest. This could be an issue for the home team again in Week 5 and the defending Champions may end up cruising past Auburn, even on the road.

A big game against the Kentucky Wildcats is next on deck for the defending Champions, but they are still likely to put plenty of stock into beating Auburn. The Bulldogs have dominated Auburn in recent games between the schools and the last three wins have been in dominant fashion, something Georgia can do again in Week 5 of the 2023 season.

Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Any slip in the Big Ten East is likely going to be costly for the top teams and last week the Ohio State Buckeyes got themselves out of a very difficult jam in winning at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

That might have focused their main rivals in the Conference, who happen to be in the same Division, and both the Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines (4-0) are big road favourites in Week 5.

Out of the two, the Michigan Wolverines are perhaps in a better position to cover, even if they are facing a Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-2) team that has won two in a row. Both of those wins have been in non-Conference games and the Cornhuskers remain a work in progress having already lost to Minnesota Golden Gophers in Big Ten play.

Jeff Sims missed out again at Quarter Back for the Cornhuskers and has missed both victories, and there is little doubt that this is going to be a much sterner test for Heinrich Haarberg. You have to expect the latter will get another opportunity having led the Cornhuskers to a couple of wins, but all of the pressure is going to feel like being on Haarberg's shoulders.

While the Cornhuskers Offensive Line have opened up some big running lanes this season, they have not faced a team like the Michigan Defensive unit. Through the four wins on the board, the Wolverines have dominated on this side of the ball and holding teams to fewer than 6 points on average, while shutting down the run and making it very difficult for Quarter Backs to find holes in the Secondary.

These are all factors that are likely to show up on Saturday and it will give the Michigan Wolverines an opportunity to cover.

However, there is a feeling that they need to find a bit more from the Offense if the Wolverines are going to be called up to compete in the College Football PlayOff again.

The Wolverines Offensive Line will be tested in the run game more than they have for much of the season and that will mean the best Michigan player, Blake Corum, could be limited. There is not a team out there that you would expect to completely contain Corum, but the Cornhuskers may feel they can get enough of a push up front to prevent the Running Back from dominating and also putting pressure on JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back.

JJ McCarthy does not have bad numbers with almost 1000 passing yards already under his belt this season with an 8-3 Touchdown-Interception ratio. He will be throwing into a Nebraska Secondary that has had issues when attacked through the air and McCarthy is likely to be well protected when he does step back to throw as Nebraska perhaps focus on closing down the run.

Despite the record and the positives around Michigan, the team are averaging just shy of 32 points per game so there is room for improvement Offensively. We may not see it all this week, but the Defensive unit are capable of doing enough to just keep the foot down on Nebraska and help Michigan cover here.

MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 17 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 16 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Maryland Terrapins - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 27 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2020 (September 30th)

The expected rain has not affected the French Open to the extent that it felt like it might when the tournament first begun and that does mean we are on schedule when we reach the middle of the week.

The First Round was played over three days and I actually think that benefited the tournament to make sure none of those are left over for Wednesday when the Second Round will begin. The bottom half of the Men's draw and the top half of the Women's draw are in action on Wednesday with matches scheduled through the day.

I do think there is a chance we will have a couple of delays during the day, but at least the next couple of days look a little drier. It is a bit overcast, but the weather is a little warmer and that should at least give the players a bit more of a chance to hit through courts that have been very difficult to do in the first three days.

We will get to see whether the slightly warmer conditions do make any difference to the way the courts have been playing, but the players have a match under their belt and so they have to take it how it comes now.

Yesterday was a much stronger day for the Tennis Picks, although in each of the last two days I have been frustrated by players having a chance to cover and missing game points or failing to serve things out when the chances have come up for them. Thankfully the Day 3 results have turned the tournament around, although there are plenty of days to come before we know which direction this Grand Slam is heading in for the Tennis Picks.

It does feel like a day with plenty of options like Tuesday did and I would be very happy to return the same record and keep the positive numbers ticking along.

Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: On first glance this looks a massive number and especially after Rafael Nadal had to dig deep to win the first two sets of his First Round match.

The long time dominant French Open Champion may not be appreciating the conditions as much as he would in May, but beating Nadal on the clay courts remains one of the big challenges on the ATP Tour. It is that much greater to try and knock him off in Paris at the French Open in the best of five set format and I do think this is a comfortable looking match for him.

Where Egor Gerasimov had the power to hit through Rafael Nadal at times and a big serve that could set up some easy points, I am not sure Mackenzie McDonald is going to benefit in the same way. The American had a solid First Round win over Qualifier Steven Diez, but this is a significant step up for him and the conditions are going to make it very difficult for McDonald throughout this one.

There is no doubting that Rafael Nadal would love to see the temperatures pick up in the days ahead, but it is going to be a match in which he should be firmly involved in every game played. Mackenzie McDonald doesn't have the best clay court pedigree, but his numbers are really below average when he has faced up against top 100 Ranked opponents and now he has to take on arguably the best clay courter of all time.

Last year McDonald was beaten by Yoshihito Nishioka in the First Round here at Roland Garros, although he did push the opponent to five sets. Even then he was beaten by a ten game margin and I do think Rafael Nadal will be able to break serve regularly in this one.

He broke the Gerasimov serve five times in the First Round and this is a serve that is going to be much more comfortable to deal with. As I said above, this is not an easy number of games to cover, but Rafael Nadal should be able to make a statement like Novak Djokovic did and that is brushing aside Mackenzie McDonald with the loss of just seven games over the course of the match.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: If you look at the head to head between every player on the Tour you do find some funny ones where one player has the advantage over the other. One of those might be the 3-1 lead Pierre-Hugues Herbert holds over Alexander Zverev despite the former never having reached the top 30 in the World Rankings and the latter being a feature in the top 10 for some time.

A part of the reason is that these players have not met since 2016 at Roland Garros when Alexander Zverev snapped his losing run to the home hope. Since then it is Zverev who has really kicked on with his career, although there are still some vulnerabilities in his game.

I am not sure Herbert is going to have enough to expose those vulnerabilities though with his limited return game unlikely to pressure Zverev's serve. Pierre-Hugues Herbert is definitely a stronger Doubles player than he is a Singles player, but the Frenchman is comfortable on the clay courts and his good win in the First Round will have given him some confidence.

However the wins have largely come against some of the weaker players on the Tour and Herbert is just 13-21 when playing against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay. His numbers take a serious dent and I am not sure the Frenchman is going to be helped by the heavier conditions we have seen at the French Open over the last few days.

It might just dent the serve, which is a huge part of the Herbert game, and that should mean Alexander Zverev is able to get his teeth into those return games. When they met here in 2016 the German only broke in 18% of return games played and he only won 37% of return points played, but Alexander Zverev created plenty of break points and I do think he is a better player now having produced some of his best tennis at Grand Slam level.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert will cause problems if he gets into a rhythm behind his serve, but I do think the heavier conditions may make it difficult to avoid a set where Alexander Zverev is able to pull away with a couple of breaks of serve. That should set him on the road to covering this number as he moves through to the Third Round of the last Slam of the season.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: Another Grand Slam tournament ended in frustration for Serena Williams who reached the business end of the US Open before losing to Victoria Azarenka in the Semi Final. She looked to be suffering physically by the end of that tournament as Williams continues to try and match Margaret Court's record of 24 Singles Grand Slam titles, but the American has arrived in Paris and looked to move through the gears in her First Round win.

Serena Williams beat Kristie Ahn in the First Round, a player she saw off at the US Open, and now she faces another player that she played at Flushing Meadows. She needed three sets to beat Tsvetana Pironkova at the US Open, but Serena Williams may feel her superiority on the clay courts should give her a clearer edge.

The match at the US Open was a close, competitive one before Serena Williams began to pull away and that means the former World Number 1 has won all five previous matches against the Bulgarian.

We had not seen Tsvetana Pironkova play on the Tour for a number of years as she left to raise a family, but she didn't miss a step in her run at the US Open. The Quarter Final loss to Serena Williams wouldn't have dented the confidence too much, and Pironkova was a strong winner in the First Round in her first match on the clay courts for three years.

She was never the best on the clay courts and I do think that has to play a part against an opponent that Pironkova has struggled to deal with throughout her career.

I would think the slower conditions are going to be an issue for Serena Williams the longer this tournament progresses, but in this match I can see the serve giving her a few more cheaper points than Tsvetana Pironkova will be able to get on her own serve. Her serve began to wear down when Pironkova played Serena Williams at the US Open and I do think the latter is going to be able to time some big winners which should give her the edge in the match.

It is hard to trust a declining Serena Williams to cover the bigger numbers these days, but I think she will find the breaks of serve to cover the mark in this one. I do think Pironkova has to be respected for the way she has played in her time back on the Tour over the last month, but Serena Williams should have a bit too much for her in the Second Round.

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: There has been talk about the lack of fans potentially releasing some of the pressure on the French players at the French Open this year. In the past we have seen players struggle to put their best tennis on the clay courts with the sense of expectation which comes from the crowd, and Caroline Garcia has already shown how tough she can be in the current climate.

She found a way to motivate herself in her tough First Round match against Anett Kontaveit in a three set win over an opponent who beat her at the Rome Masters earlier this month. That is a very big win for Caroline Garcia who has not always found the consistency needed to fulfil the potential that many felt she had.

The Frenchwoman is a solid clay courter, but it would need something special for her to go on and win the French Open. With that in mind, I do think Garcia has opened the draw for herself to at least reach the second week of the tournament and this is an opponent she has matched up well with in the past, although all three previous wins over Aliaksandra Sasnovich have come on the hard courts.

Like Garcia, Aliaksandra Sasnovich had to dig deep and win her First Round match in three sets and she has reached two Quarter Finals in clay court tournaments since the Tour returned back in August. That has to give her confidence, although it would be foolish to ignore the fact that the majority of those matches were played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

In general Sasnovich has struggled when it comes to competing with top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts and I do think Caroline Garcia can put her under pressure in this one.

My only concern with backing Garcia is that she has not really been playing with a lot of consistency and there will be a different pressure on her in the Second Round. She was the underdog in the First Round win over Anett Kontaveit, but there is a different pressure on her now and Garcia is not the best at coping with the expectation around her.

Having limited fans allowed onto the grounds may help Garcia and I do think the match up is one that won't worry her too much. I do think Aliaksandra Sasnovich can play some very high level tennis, but that may not be seen for long enough to win this match and instead I will look for Garcia to dig deep and move into the Third Round while covering the handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Yulia Putintseva - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Stan Wawrinka-Dominik Koepfer Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Yoshihito Nishioka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Norbert Gombos - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (September 29-October 1)

It has been an up and down September for the Football Picks but there is still one more round of fixtures to be played this month.

This is the last week before we enter the second international break of the 2018/19 season but there are some big matches to come with two rounds of domestic fixtures in the top flights of European Leagues as well as Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League.

Managers will be beginning to feel the pressure as we enter the third month of the season when the domestic Leagues begin to take shape and they will recognise that the international break could be seen as a time when changes can be made if things have not gone as expected.

That is a fear for me at Manchester United with the continued fall out between Paul Pogba and Jose Mourinho leading the headlines in the Premier League. It makes Saturday afternoon a huge game for Manchester United who open the Premier League weekend with a trip to the London Stadium against an improving West Ham United, while the big game of the week will take place in West London as two of the top three meet.

With that in mind, let's get on with the Weekend Football Picks.

West Ham United v Manchester United Pick: To say all is not well at Manchester United may be the biggest understatement of the year as the club lurch from one poor result to another. Surprisingly it has been the form at Old Trafford which has been letting them down, while the reality show drama between Paul Pogba and Jose Mourinho is beginning to divide the supporters into two camps.

The majority of match going Reds are still very much behind the manager ahead of a player who has not found the consistency expected of him as he is involved in his third season since returning to Manchester.

However the toxic atmosphere is not going to aid the players and I do worry about where this season is going.

In saying that, Manchester United have performed better away from home where there seem to be more room for the team to operate in the counter attacking style preferred by the manager. With the home teams expected to get forward, Manchester United have scored at least twice in every away game they have played this season and have won their last 3.

West Ham United won't roll over for Manchester United after earning a goalless draw with Chelsea last weekend and then beating Macclesfield Town 8-0 in the League Cup. A key for the home team is getting Marko Arnautovic back, but they will have to be better defensively than they were last weekend when only poor finishing cost Chelsea the chance of taking away the three points.

The Hammers can play their part against a Manchester United team lacking some confidence at the moment, but I do like the visitors winning at the London Stadium. Manchester United have found their attacking moves a little easier to put together away from home and are creating chances in those games.

They will likely need to score at least twice to win here so backing Manchester United to win a game featuring two or more goals looks much more appealing than backing them to win at odds on quotes.

Arsenal v Watford Pick: A real rivalry has built up between Arsenal and Watford over the last couple of years mainly thanks to comments made by Troy Deeney when he accused the Arsenal players of 'lacking cojones'. He is sure to get a huge 'welcome' on Saturday afternoon as these teams meet in the Premier League at the Emirates Stadium.

Watford will make the short journey to Arsenal in confident mood after a very strong start to the new season, but they are also facing a team with more momentum having put together 6 straight wins in all competitions.

It has to be said that Arsenal have not always been convincing and last Sunday could have been a different story if Everton had taken the lead when creating some decent chances. The home side will have to be a lot better from the off to avoid giving Watford the chance to get a foothold into the game, although I do worry for The Hornets who have lost some key players to injury and suspension in defensive areas.

They have already allowed teams to create some good chances against them and this Arsenal team have scored at least twice in 4 straight games at the Emirates Stadium. With the attacking players Unai Emery can call upon I do think Arsenal are going to be a little too much for Watford to handle especially with the defensive injuries they have at the moment.

I wouldn't be surprised if Watford cause problems for Arsenal with the two up front different to what other teams will use against them. However I think Arsenal will create the chances that will help them win and cover the Asian Handicap in this Saturday afternoon fixture.

Everton v Fulham Pick: This looks like it could produce one of the better Premier League games of the weekend with both Everton and Fulham looking decent going forward, but defensively vulnerable.

The layers have picked up on that by shortening the price of seeing at least three goals shared out here, but I will keep goals in mind when it comes to the pick.

I am confused by some of the reports that the players at Everton are not completely on board with the Marco Silva training methods, but that does happen when the results have not been as strong as expected. The manager should be given time and the return of Richarlison is a boost for a team who could have earned more from the Emirates Stadium with a bit more fortune last Sunday.

Being back at home should be a big help for Everton who will be able to create chances against this Fulham team and I do give them a narrow edge to beat out their visitors.

You have to respect Fulham for the chances they create and against a defensively vulnerable Everton they should have successes. However Fulham will need to ride their luck somewhat to get a result here and I think the best way to go forward with a selection here is picking Everton to win a game featuring two or more goals.

Huddersfield Town v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The last month has been tough for Tottenham Hotspur but the win at the Amex Stadium last Saturday is a huge boost for the confidence of the players. The losses to Watford and Inter Milan in previous games had been very unfortunate as Tottenham Hotspur led in both and should really have done enough to avoid defeat at the least, but I think they will be feeling much better after winning at Brighton.

They should be good enough to back that up with a win at out of form Huddersfield Town who are having a very difficult time at both ends of the field. Defensively they have not been good enough, but Huddersfield Town struggle for goals too and all together it is the perfect storm for relegation.

David Wagner won't have given up after six Premier League games have been played, but the poor form Huddersfield Town have displayed goes back to February. They won't be expected to get too much out of this one, but there may be an opportunity if Tottenham Hotspur are distracted.

Key players were rested in the penalty shoot out win over Watford in the League Cup, but Tottenham Hotspur have a huge Champions League game with Barcelona to come during the week. The pressure on that game has been intensified by losing to Inter Milan on Match Day 1 and a distracted Tottenham Hotspur could be punished by unexpectedly dropping points here.

Personally I think the back to back Premier League losses at Watford and at home to Liverpool would have focused Tottenham Hotspur and they won't want to lose more ground to the leaders before the end of September. They were very strong at Brighton and Huddersfield Town are not as good as Chris Hughton's men so I would expect Spurs to have too much for them here.

Tottenham Hotspur won both League games against Huddersfield Town by at least two goals last season. The Terriers have also taken two heavy losses to Manchester City and Chelsea this season and I will back Tottenham Hotspur on the Asian Handicap to win here.

Manchester City v Brighton Pick: The key for Manchester City this weekend is not overlooking the opponent in front of them and focusing on the big games with Hoffenheim and Liverpool coming up.

In reality a focused Manchester City should have far too much for Brighton and I expect they will come out strongly and ensure a comfortable win is produced.

The worry for Brighton has to be the way they have been defending with some big chances created against them and now facing an attacking team like Manchester City you would have to think those defensive issues will be magnified.

Manchester City may not have a 100% Premier League record, but they have been looking very good going forward and I expect they will win this by a comfortable margin on the day. The Asian Handicap is a big one, but Manchester City have looked like they could score three or more in this one and that will give them every chance of covering the number.

Brighton will look to be organised, but they have conceded far too many goals to open the 2018/19 season and I expect Manchester City to secure a big win.

Newcastle United v Leicester City Pick: It is something of a surprise to me that Newcastle United have been set as the favourites to win this fixture when you think of the form that the two teams have been in.

There was always a worry that Newcastle United would struggle for goals this season with the signings made in the forward areas, but the bigger concern for the fans has to be the defensive performances. The goalless draw at Selhurst Park might suggest a corner is being turned, but Newcastle United were very, very fortunate there and will have to be a lot better to beat Leicester City.

You can't ignore the fact that Leicester City have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the Premier League.

However this is a team who have looked capable of creating chances on their travels and who have enjoyed coming to St James' Park in the last couple of visits. On both occasions Leicester City have scored three times and they are playing well enough to avoid defeat here.

Newcastle United have had a week to prepare for this game which will make it tougher for Leicester City, but I will back the away side with a start on the Asian Handicap.

Wolves v Southampton Pick: As well as Wolves have played this season I do think they are still finding their feet in the final third in the Premier League and that has seen them struggle to score the goals that their chances created would have expected to produce. At some point you would think they will put the composure together to find the right final ball or the right shot to start putting teams to the sword, but at the moment it makes the odds on quotes for a home look very short.

They are also facing a Southampton team who are well rested having seen their League Cup tie moved to next Tuesday. Add in Danny Ings' availability and Southampton could be a dangerous opponent this weekend.

Defensively they have had their issues and teams have created good chances against them which will encourage Wolves who like to get forward. It does make it hard to imagine the home team not scoring in this one, although Southampton have been very good on the counter attack away from home and have players in Ings and Charlie Austin who can score goals.

Picking a winner is thus a little more difficult and Southampton will likely play their part in a good football game.

I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals shared out with the way Wolves and Southampton have played at home/away respectively. Much will depend on whether the teams have the right shooting boots on for this one, but if they do I can see at least three goals shared out in a decent, entertaining fixture on Saturday.

Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: Two stronger than expected teams played in the League Cup Third Round tie between Chelsea and Liverpool on Wednesday and that may mean Chelsea have the slight mental edge going into this big Premier League game on Saturday afternoon.

However I don't think you can read too much into things as both teams will also make some key changes to this one.

Instead I do think you can take on board the style of play both clubs produced in the League Cup tie and expect to see more of the same on Saturday. Both Chelsea and Liverpool want to get forward and score goals and I think they do match up well with each other.

The amount of chances created in the League Cup tie may have been contributed by the defensive changes made by the two managers, but the attacking style of both teams should mean there are more to come in this one.

I am a little surprised to see Chelsea as the home underdog and I did consider backing The Blues with a start on the Asian Handicap. However that is a similar price to the one for at least three goals to be shared out here and that will be my selection from the fixture.

Cardiff City v Burnley Pick: This may not be the 'Super Sunday' fixture people would have signed up for despite the advertisement every week by the television companies, but it is a big one for both Cardiff City and Burnley.

Points in matches between these teams could be key in determining the bottom three places and both Neil Warnock and Sean Dyche will have circled it as a fixture their team can win.

Cardiff City might be in a poor run of results, but facing Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City in 3 straight Premier League games would be a tough run for any team to manage. They didn't perform too badly in the first couple of those games, but Cardiff City will have had some of the confidence knocked out of them by the amount of goals they have conceded.

However Cardiff City have shown in games against Newcastle United and Arsenal that they can get into good positions and Burnley have not played well away from home. It would not be a big surprise if Cardiff City were to score here, but I think the layers have underestimated the chances of seeing both teams score when you consider some of the chances Burnley have created in their recent matches too.

You can't deny Cardiff City can be vulnerable defensively and backing both teams to score in a tight fixture looks a price worth getting involved with.

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace Pick: The last game of the Premier League weekend comes from the Vitality Stadium on Monday evening and this could be a good one between Bournemouth and Crystal Palace.

The home team should make the running in the fixture and that should produce an open game. Bournemouth have been winning plenty of games and scoring goals for fun at the Vitality Stadium which is making up for some of the defensive issues they have continued to have under Eddie Howe.

The Cherries have won 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions and they have scored at least twice in each of their 5 games played here in the 2018/19 season. However Bournemouth have also conceded at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 home games in all competitions which should encourage Crystal Palace who will be looking to strike on the counter attack.

I would be a little worried about the lack of goals Crystal Palace have produced in recent games, but the chances have been coming and I do think they can get involved in this one. Roy Hodgson's team have played well away from home so they could be dangerous for Bournemouth, but goals is my biggest expectation in this one.

Backing at least three to be scored between the teams on Monday Night Football looks the way to go with the 2-1 scoreline either way looking the most likely result. Another 2-2 can't be ruled out either having seen both Premier League games between these clubs end with that scoreline in the 2017/18 season so backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a decent way to approach this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Leicester City + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wolves-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Chelsea-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cardiff City-Burnley Both Teams to Score @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Bournemouth-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

September Update: 20-20, + 0.02 Units (80 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

NFL Week 4 Picks 2018 (September 27-October 1)

It was never going to be about maintaining the level of success I had with the NFL Picks through the first couple of weeks because those were winners at an unsustainable level for anyone.

The key was to make sure I didn't hit a really poor week and at least I avoided that for the most part in Week 3.

I am a little irritated with myself for the unit on the Minnesota Vikings having reminded myself all week as to why I didn't want to back them, but it is a mistake I won't be looking to repeat. The other selections were ones that I would have made again and things could have been a lot worse in Week 3 than they turned out to be.

Going into the late Sunday afternoon games it looked like being another decent week to be fair, but the Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears both missed out on the cover despite having some real chances to do that.


Hopefully Week 4 is going to be better and I am beginning this week's selections with Thursday Night Football. It is one of the better Thursday Night Football games of the season and one that could be repeated in the Play Offs in January, while my remaining selections will be added to this thread in the next couple of days.


Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: It was one of the biggest upsets in the last thirty years as the Minnesota Vikings were beaten as an almost three Touchdown home favourite in Week 3. A lack of intensity was clear in the opening minutes of the First Quarter against the Buffalo Bills and it was a bad loss to take to drop the team to 1-1-1 in 2018.

Now they face what many consider to be the team to beat in the NFC as they head to Los Angeles to take on the unbeaten Rams who improved to 3-0 with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3. While that was a solid win for the Rams, this is a team who have not exactly beaten any team of serious note so far in 2018 and facing this Minnesota Vikings team is a whole different story to playing Oakland, Arizona and the Chargers.

The Rams have improved their Offensive output in each passing week having scored 33 points in Week 1, 34 points in Week 2 and then 35 points in Week 3. They will be looking to keep that power scoring going against one of the best NFL Defenses, but I do think things will be tougher all around for them even though Head Coach Sean McVay has proven to be an Offensive mastermind.

Everson Griffen is absent for the Vikings which is a big blow to their ability to get pressure on Jared Goff, but Minnesota are making the right decision in helping Griffen improve his life. He has been struggling to cope of late and the Vikings should be more ready to go without him in the weeks ahead than they may have been on Sunday when Griffen's problems hit the public domain.

Goff has been well protected by his Offensive Line anyway and the McVay play calls are inventive to say the least so I do expect the Rams to have their success moving the chains. However I don't think the Vikings will make as many poor decisions in coverage as they did against the Bills especially with a Secondary as good as the one they have.

Todd Gurley may not have a lot of success running the ball, but he should be a factor out of the backfield and Goff may also make some plays with his legs like Josh Allen did against the Vikings last week.

The question then becomes whether Kirk Cousins can bounce back from a rough outing against the Buffalo Bills when his two early fumbles put his team in a big hole in the First Quarter. He would be much happier if Dalvin Cook is passed fit for this game having been held out against the Buffalo Bills as it has been possible to run the ball against a fierce Los Angeles Defensive Line, but the pressure will mainly be on the Quarter Back to make the correct decisions.

I do think Cousins' chances will be bolstered by the injuries to the two starting Corner Backs the Los Angeles Rams would usually play. Both Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters are expected to sit out on Thursday Night Football and that means Sam Shields is going to be the best of the Corner Backs the Rams can put on the field.

Cousins has a decent set of Receivers who should be able to find gaps in the Secondary, but the Quarter Back wants to be protected by the Offensive Line better than he has. With the power the Rams have on the Defensive Line Cousins will have to move around the pocket before finding his Receivers, but he has to make sure he keeps a handle on the ball much better than he did against the Bills when getting strip Sacked twice in the First Quarter.

He has shown in the past he is capable of doing that and this looks a lot of points for the Minnesota Vikings to be receiving. The number has been affected by the poor performance against the Buffalo Bills, but I think Minnesota are much better than what they showed in Week 3.

The Rams have been a very strong home favourite to back under Sean McVay, but I do think this is a lot of points for the visitors to be getting. Kirk Cousins was poor in Week 3, but the absence of the two Los Angeles Corner Backs should mean he has every chance to bounce back and being able to get more than a converted Touchdown in terms of points looks too many for the Vikings.


Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: These two NFC teams may both be coming into Week 4 with a 1-2 record, but the momentum will be with the Detroit Lions who won their first game of the 2018 season in Week 3. It was an impressive win too as they beat the favourites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots, in the prime time game on Sunday evening while the Dallas Cowboys had been beaten at the Seattle Seahawks earlier in the day.

Both teams will recognise the importance of winning this game as they both reside in Divisions where most will expect at least one better team to be involved in. At this moment the NFC North and the NFC East have not had a team come flying out of the blocks which will ease some pressure on the Lions and Cowboys, but it is a big game regardless.

Losing the likes of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten was always going to be a problem for the Dallas Cowboys, but injuries on the Offensive Line have weakened what has been one of the stronger units in the NFL in the last couple of years. Most of the attention will be on the loss of the Receivers as no one else has stepped up yet, but it is important for Dallas to try and control the clock and make sure they are using Ezekiel Elliot as much as possible.

Despite the injuries on the Offensive Line, Dallas have actually run the ball for 6.0 yards per carry in 2018 and the Detroit Defensive Line has not performed well against the run. They may sell out and look to prevent Elliot from getting loose and force the pressure on a struggling pass game, but Dak Prescott is also capable of making plays with his legs and the Cowboys should have success on the ground as long as they remain in the game.

It is very important for Dallas who have struggled to move the ball in the air and who have had issues protecting Prescott at Quarter Back. The Lions have been able to get a pass rush going which will be slowed down if Dallas can run the ball effectively and that will also open things up for Prescott to try and make plays with a little more time.

There have been issues for Dallas Offensively, but the Defensive unit have stepped up to try and help them through games as much as possible. The Defensive Line has been very strong against the run and making Detroit a little one-dimensional would be huge for the Cowboys if they are going to win this home game.

Matthew Stafford is a Quarter Back who can have huge statistical games in the air which has to be respected, but the Dallas Secondary haven't played too badly. They have restricted the Carolina Panthers to 16 points and held the New York Giants to 13 points so there will be a confidence they can make the big plays to prevent Stafford from overwhelming them through the air.

Stopping the run will allow Dallas to unleash what has been a strong pass rush to this point of the season although Stafford is a Quarter Back who will look to get the ball out of his hands very quickly. However keeping Detroit in third and long down and distance would mean Stafford could need slightly more time and this could be a chance for the Cowboys to pick up their first Interception of the 2018 season.

I do like the Cowboys having a chance to control the clock on the ground and having that open things up for Dak Prescott through the air. The Lions are off a big win as the home underdog, but they have gone 2-4-1 against the spread after winning a game as the underdog. The Lions are also a poor 8-16-1 against the spread as an underdog of 3 points or less, while Dallas may have a poor home record as the favourite, but are 6-2-1 against the spread as a favourite by 3 or fewer points.

Ezekiel Elliot could have one of his better games in Week 4 and I will back the Dallas Cowboys to win and cover.


Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The 1-1-1 record for the Green Bay Packers will be a slight worry for the fans, but there are still some question marks about Aaron Rodgers and the knee injury he suffered in Week 1. The idea is for the Packers to get through the next three or four weeks and then hope the bye week is enough for Rodgers to get healthier as Green Bay will only go as far as their star Quarter Back can carry them.

They will want to avoid the pitfalls that befell their Divisional rivals the Minnesota Vikings who perhaps overlooked the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and fell to a heavy home loss despite being an almost three Touchdown favourite to win. It is the first win for the Buffalo Bills in the 2018 season which didn't look very promising after the first couple of losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers which saw the Offense turned over to top Draft Pick Josh Allen.

The Quarter Back played well enough in his first NFL start last week in Minnesota, but he was helped by the poor performance from the Vikings and won't be expecting the Green Bay Packers to shoot themselves in the foot as convincingly as their hosts did in Week 3.

Allen was able to make some plays with his legs to help keep the chains moving last week, but he would have been much happier if LeSean McCoy was available at Running Back. Without their star player the Bills have struggled to open holes up front and that may be the case again in Week 4 even though they are facing a Green Bay Defensive Line who lost Muhammed Wilkerson last week.

The Packers have given up 4.7 yards per carry so far this season, but I think they will look to lock down up front and make sure Allen is having to try and beat them through the air. That could be a problem for the Bills whose Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection and need to be kept in third and manageable spots to make sure they are able to move the chains with consistency.

There are some holes in the Green Bay Secondary that can be exploited, but Allen could find himself facing significant pressure from the pass rush if the running game is not able to get on track. The other problem for the Bills is they are not a team built to be involved in shoot outs but could find themselves having to throw to keep up with the Packers in this one.

Aaron Rodgers is clearly not as healthy as he would want to be but he has still managed to make big plays down the field and even the absence of Randall Cobb is unlikely to slow him down. He is not able to move around the pocket as he would if his knee was at 100% which has led to an increase in Sacks taken, but Rodgers has shown he is still a competent Quarter Back even on one leg.

This game may be on his arm because the Packers may not get a lot of room to run the ball with consistency in this one unless Buffalo are dropping more men into coverage. I don't think they will change their schemes too much even if the Secondary have given up some big yards, but slowing down the Green Bay Offensive unit may be too much for them.

Green Bay are off a loss as the favourite and they have tended to bounce back effectively in the past. Add in the fact that Buffalo have really struggled off the back of an upset win with a 6-22-2 record agains the spread in the game following an upset win as the underdog and I do like the Green Bay Packers to cover this big number.

The number is 8 points fewer than last week and I don't think the Packers are that much worse than the Minnesota Vikings having come close to beating them here already this season if not for a bogus 'roughing the passer' call against Clay Matthews. However it is still a big number and that has to be respected and the key for the Packers is to make sure they are not overlooking Buffalo as their Divisional rivals did, while a banged up Aaron Rodgers has to keep himself clear of the big hits.

I do like the Packers to bounce back from the loss to the Washington Redskins in Week 4.


Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: The Houston Texans looked to have found a franchise Quarter Back in the 2017 season when Deshaun Watson showed off the kind of talent he possessed. The season ended with an injury, but there was much excitement in Houston that their team could take a positive step forward when he returned in time for the 2018 season.

It has been disappointing so far as the Texans are 0-3, but they can only look at themselves and accept they have shot themselves in the foot. They are still in the AFC South Division which has two leaders with 2-1 records, but the Texans will also know a defeat to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4 could mean the 2018 season is going to be a lost one for them.

The Colts have a returning Quarter Back leading the way with Andrew Luck back behind Center, but he has yet to show he is back to his very best. The Colts are 1-2 having narrowly been beaten by the Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles last week, but it was the Offensive struggles that really let them down.

Any questions about how strong Luck's shoulder is was answered by the fact he was not used for the Hail Mary throw at the end of the game that may have seen Indianapolis upset Philadelphia. Luck is only just averaging over 200 passing yards per game and that has seen the Colts struggle to move the ball with any consistency when you add those numbers to the poor rushing attack.

A lack of run game means the Colts are relying on Luck to make plays and I think he will have some success with the short crossing routes and I can see TY Hilton picking up his yards. However Luck is also going to be put under pressure by the Houston pass rush which should beat out the Indianapolis Offensive Line and that could lead to the Texans finally creating a turnover or two in this one.

There have been some aspects of the Indianapolis Defensive unit that you have to admire with a couple of solid Draft picks looking they can make a big impact in the NFL in the years ahead. However they are going to have a hard time shutting down a Houston Offense that have a number of playmakers and look like the are on the right road to getting things turned around in 2018.

With Watson at Quarter Back the Texans have a player capable of running to make First Downs himself and he has helped Houston produce some decent numbers on the ground. They will be looking to keep Watson in manageable down and distance which can give the Quarter Back the chance to make some big plays down the field as well as giving the Offensive Line more of a chance to protect Watson better than they have.

Indianapolis will get after Watson if they are able to pin back their ears in obvious passing situations, but otherwise I would expect a big game from the Quarter Back in this one. The Colts Secondary have given up some big plays through the air and I like Houston moving the chains and being in a position to earn the 'upset' on the road.

Taking care of the ball is key for the Quarter Back and you would think the Red Zone issues will begin to fix up with the more Football they get under their belts. The Houston Texans can also extend the run of the road team in the recent games between them and Colts with that team being 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight.

Houston have earned more yards than each of their last two opponents and that is a positive sign considering they have suffered close losses. You have to think that will be turned around sooner rather than later and I think Houston can out-score an Indianapolis Offensive unit that have not been consistent enough in the 2018 season.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Pick: These two NFC teams come into Week 4 with a 2-1 record and they are both going to be heading into a bye week following this game. Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears have shown flashes of overachieving this season, but the momentum is with the home team Chicago who have won two in a row while the Buccaneers were losing on Monday Night Football six days ago.

There are going to be some questions for Tampa Bay to answer having seen Ryan Fitzpatrick produce three huge statistical games at Quarter Back in relief of Jameis Winston. The latter has been suspended but is back and Fitzpatrick has just seen his grip on the Quarter Back job loosened by his turnovers which proved so costly in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.

This is going to be a tough place to try and bounce back for Fitzpatrick as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit have stepped up their level since bringing in Khalil Mack in a trade from the Oakland Athletics. Mack has been a disruptive force on the Defensive Line and the rest of the Bears are playing with confidence to think they can give Fitzpatrick and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a real challenge to move the ball with the consistency they have shown through the first three weeks.

It is all going to be on Fitzpatrick as the Buccaneers have not really offered much of a run game to support the Quarter Back. That is not likely to change against the Bears Defensive Line who have given up just 3.4 yards per carry and so Fitzpatrick will have to make sure his Offensive Line can protect him from the likes of Mack throughout this game.

I would be surprised if Mike Evans is not able to make some big plays for Fitzpatrick in the passing game, but the Quarter Back's protection in the pocket has not been as strong as he would have liked. Ryan Fitzpatrick can make some plays with his legs, but he should find himself under immense pressure throughout much of the afternoon and has to be wary of the Chicago Secondary who have been able to turn the ball over.

Tampa Bay will have generally been happy with their passing game, but the Chicago Bears know they need to see more from Mitchell Trubisky if they are going to be a dark horse for Super Bowl success. The young Quarter Back is only in his second year in the NFL, but Trubisky has struggled although this could be the weakest Defense he has faced.

It will be up to Trubisky to make some big plays if the Bears are going to win this game because the Tampa Bay strength on the Defensive unit is up front where they have been strong against the run and able to produce a strong pass rush. That means the Quarter Back won't be able to rely on Jordan Howard pounding the ball, although Chicago will stick with the game plan and perhaps even ask Trubisky to make some plays with his legs to avoid the pressure the Buccaneers have been able to bring.

The Offensive Line has not been that strong in protection, but Trubisky could still have a strong game against a banged up Tampa Bay Secondary who have given up some huge yards. You can't blame them for that when considering they have faced Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger already this season, two Quarter Backs levels above Trubisky, but Nick Foles also made some strong plays and so I do think the young Chicago signal caller can have a good game.

He may be supported by the Defense creating turnovers and perhaps even adding a score or two and I do like the Bears to make it three wins in a row. The short week for the Buccaneers makes it tougher for them and I am not sure Fitzpatrick is capable of having a huge game against this Defensive unit but instead this is the kind of game in which he would make those back breaking turnovers.

It's not the biggest spread of the weekend as the layers are not convinced by Mitchell Trubisky, but I like the Bears to cover.


Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: In the last fifteen years you would say the New England Patriots have been there or thereabouts when it comes to representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. A great dynasty has been built by Bill Belichick with Tom Brady as his Quarter Back, but 2018 has not started in the manner that most would have expected.

Back to back heavy losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions has dropped the Patriots to 1-2 in the AFC East, but they remain the team to beat and the Miami Dolphins will be the first to admit that. The Dolphins head to Foxboro with a 3-0 record, but they have not exactly faced the toughest of opposition and Miami fans all of the world will know this is a real test of Adam Gase and his players to show if they are for real or not.

Over the last few years the Patriots have dominated their Divisional rivals and the Dolphins have been no different. However this New England team may be the weakest it has been in a long time and that has to encourage the Dolphins even though they have to play on the road.

Rex Burkhead has gone down with an injury and that means New England will lean on Sonny Michel to try and establish the run. It won't be easy for the rookie Running Back considering how well the Miami Dolphins have stopped the run and that is even though they cut Ndamukong Suh in the off-season.

The Dolphins Defensive Line have held their first three opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and they will be looking to make New England have to make plays from third and long. Tom Brady has lost some key weapons in the passing game and New England have yet to give Josh Gordon the green light to be involved and that has meant there hasn't been the consistent Receivers to make plays as in previous years.

Julian Edelman has been a big miss for the Patriots but he is back from suspension for this game and that is a huge plus for Brady. I do think he will make it easier for Brady to make plays through the air, but he will have to have better protection from the Offensive Line to keep the Miami pass rush from disrupting things.

I have little doubt Brady will have his successes though as Miami try to find a way to replace William Hayes up front. The Dolphins Secondary is far from watertight and the only way they can expect to slow down New England is by making sure they are at least forcing Brady to move in the pocket and begin to feel the phantom pressure.

Another way for Miami to protect the Secondary is to put together some long drives with the power running coupled with Ryan Tannehill looking after the ball being a success for them so far. Miami will feel they can establish the run against the Patriots who are allowing 4.7 yards per carry on the season, especially as Tannehill has looked strong off an ACL injury and been able to make some plays with his legs as well as his arm.

Tannehill may not be the most popular Quarter Back Miami have had, but he is a level above Jay Cutler and Adam Gase has been working very well with him. The Dolphins have a strong record with Tannehill and Gase together and they will feel they can make plays against this Patriots Secondary as long as the run is established.

That would open up play-action and also slow down the New England pass rush, but so far Tannehill has been well protected and he has made the right decisions with the ball. Playing a clean game is key for the Dolphins if they want to upset what has become the annual AFC East Champions on the road and that would also see the Dolphins open up a commanding lead in the Division.

Miami are 5-3 against the spread as the road underdog under Adam Gase and with Ryan Tannehill Quarter Backing the team. New England do have some strong numbers as the home favourite in their Divisional games, but they are back in action on Thursday Night Football, which can be a distraction, and this Patriots team may not be as strong as past versions.

Edelman's return may be the spark that helps the Patriots win this game, but I am going to have a small interest in Miami covering.


Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 and look like a genuine Super Bowl contender which means the other three teams in the NFC West are likely going to be fighting for a Wild Card spot. None of those three teams have a winning record, although the Seattle Seahawks did win their first game in the 2018 season in Week 3 and will be looking to move back to 0.500 on the season.

They certainly look in a better place than their hosts the Arizona Cardinals who are 0-3 and have had enough of watching Sam Bradford check the ball down and then make mistakes to prevent the Offensive unit getting anything going. The decision has been made by Steve Wilks to turn the Offense over to Josh Rosen, but it feels like this is going to be a tough learning curve for the rookie Quarter Back who was caught yawning on the sidelines two weeks ago.

Arizona's big hope is that Rosen can spark something Offensively which can at least get the Cardinals moving in the right direction. It is not an easy match up for him against the Seattle Defense which has got a number of players back from injury despite the famous 'Legion of Boom' breaking up over the last ten months.

Earl Thomas continues to show he is one of the premier Safeties in the League, while Bobby Wagner is expected to play and the Seahawks will feel they can put the clamps on David Johnson trying to run the ball for the Cardinals. I expect the game plan will be to make sure Johnson is accounted for on every play and then force Rosen to make the big plays in his first start in the NFL.

Rosen will be hoping he gets better protection than Sam Bradford had been enjoying because the Seahawks have found a way to get to the Quarter Back up front. That has helped the passing numbers and has also meant Quarter Backs are likely to make mistakes throwing into this Secondary with players swarming around them.

That could be a big issue for Rosen in this one and I do think the Seahawks can hold the Cardinals Offense like many others have so far.

Seattle look like they are potentially getting healthier on the Offensive side of the ball too with Doug Baldwin approaching a return to the team. That is so important for the team as Baldwin is clearly the most trustworthy Receiver they have and will always be a big target for Russell Wilson.

Wilson is going to have all the pressure on his shoulders this week as he won't be expecting to have a lot of support from Chris Carson at Running Back. Carson had a surprisingly good week running against the Cowboys in Week 3, but this Arizona Defensive Line is playing well up front and the Seattle Offensive Line are not likely to win those battles.

It also means Wilson is going to have to scramble to make plays with the pass rush led by Chandler Jones likely to be in Wilson's face throughout this one. However Wilson has shown he can make some big plays on the run and the Arizona Secondary is not as strong as it was a couple of years ago so a returning Baldwin could have a big game or at least offer a distraction to open things up for one of the other Receivers.

With the potential of Rosen turning the ball over a couple of times in this game, I do like the Seattle Seahawks to win and cover here. The Seahawks have a strong 4-0-1 record against the spread in their last five games in Arizona and the Cardinals are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as a home underdog in a Divisional game.

Backing a road favourite in the NFL can be a haphazard living, but I like the Seahawks to give the rookie Quarter Back some real exotic looks and that should lead to a couple of key turnovers to win and cover.


New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants Pick: The New York Giants earned their first win of the season in Week 3 and that moves them back to 1-2 and looking to get a little closer to the Divisional leader and Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. They are going to be at their best to compete with the New Orleans Saints in Week 4, although the Saints have yet to convince in 2018 despite coming into the season as one of the favourites to challenge for the Super Bowl.

The Saints are 2-1, but they could easily be 0-3 if Cleveland had hit any of a number of Field Goals to beat them in the SuperDome, while they needed Overtime in Week 3 to edge out the Atlanta Falcons.

All credit has to be given to New Orleans for finding wins in those games, but this is a team who have notoriously struggled when playing outdoors and have to do that this week for the first time in 2018. Any team who has Drew Brees leading the Offensive unit are going to be tough to beat, but New Orleans have missed Mark Ingram who completes his suspension in Week 4.

Alvin Kamara remains a dynamic option for New Orleans coming out of the backfield as a Receiver, but the Saints have not been able to run the ball as well as they would have liked in Ingram's absence. That hasn't prevented Drew Brees putting up some huge numbers, although he has yet to play outdoors and that is where this Hall of Fame Quarter Back can have some problems.

Brees should be able to connect with Michael Thomas against a New York Giants Defensive unit that have given up 232 passing yards per game and who have not faced a Quarter Back up to the level of the one they are facing in Week 4. The Giants will try to get some pressure up front to at least give Brees something to think about, but they will need a below par effort from the New Orleans Saints Offense to give them a chance.

If they get that then the Giants will feel they can pick up from where they left off against the Houston Texans in Week 4 and can keep the Offense rolling. Eli Manning has had the look of a Quarter Back whose best years are behind him, but he had his best game last week and Manning is facing a New Orleans Defensive unit that have taken a step back from where they were performing in 2017.

Saquon Barkley has been strong for the Giants since being picked ahead of Sam Darnold, but the Offensive Line has yet to really open the holes for him that they would have liked. It won't be much easier to do that against the Saints who have played the run well and seen teams instead look to exploit the problems in the Secondary.

You can't ignore the Receiving weapons Manning has with the Giants although he will have to hope the Offensive Line can give him time to find them down the field. So far the Giants have struggled to protect Manning, but last week they looked a little better after making changes on the Offensive Line, although the Saints have found pressure easier to come by than the Houston Texans.

Even the pressure has not been enough for the New Orleans Saints to protect a young Secondary who have just taken a step back from the level they showed in 2017. The numbers have been ugly and the Giants will believe in the likes of Odell Beckham Jr winning their battles to give Manning the chance to keep the chains moving with some consistency.

I do think that ability to score points is going to help the Giants as the home underdog and I like their chances of pushing the Saints all the way. Back to back road games is tough in the NFL, while the first outdoors game of the season is going to be a different factor for the Saints to deal with.

New Orleans look to be the better team which makes it dangerous to oppose them, but getting over the key number of 3 in this one makes the home underdog appealing to back.


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: None of the teams in the AFC North have a losing record after three weeks of the 2018 season, but there is plenty on the line when the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers renew their rivalry on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.

The Ravens come in with a 2-1 record while the Steelers are 1-1-1 after tying with the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Both teams recorded very important wins in Week 3, but that won't mean a lot when these two play on Sunday as the focus will be completely on this game.

In years gone by this would have been considered a Defensive battle with both teams looking to pound the ball down the throat of the other and then look for their Quarter Backs to make one or two big plays to turn the tide in favour of one or the other.

That may not be the case in 2018 as the pass has been a huge weapon for the Ravens and the Steelers and I do expect the teams to try and air things out on Sunday.

Baltimore will be comfortable with Joe Flacco running things for the Offensive unit as the Super Bowl winning Quarter Back looks to have been inspired by the selection of Lamar Jackson in the 2018 Draft. The Ravens have needed Flacco playing at the level he has because they have not been able to run the ball as well as they would have liked, but that could potentially change this week too.

While the Ravens have not played well enough from the Running Back position, they are facing a Pittsburgh Defensive Line that has given up 4.6 yards per carry. Part of the problem for the Steelers is that they have struggled against the pass and so may have to drop more men into coverage which makes the draw play a potentially big one for the Ravens as they try and establish the run.

It will be important for the Baltimore Offensive Line as they have struggled in pass protection and now face a decent Pittsburgh pass rush. Running the ball may help give Flacco a little more time to dissect a Steelers Secondary which has given up 288 passing yards per game including over 400 to Ryan Fitzpatrick who came up just short of the comeback on Monday Night Football.

Flacco has helped the Ravens just shy of 300 passing yards per game and I do think he can help Baltimore make some big plays in the air in what could be a potential shoot out with the Steelers in Week 4.

The absence of Le'Veon Bell has been the big story around the Pittsburgh Steelers throughout the 2018 season, but Antonio Brown has also been frustrated as the Steelers have not come out of the gates as quickly as they would have liked.

James Connor has actually played well enough in the absence of Bell and the Running Back should have some success against this Baltimore Defensive Line which has not been as stout as they have been in recent years. So far the Ravens have given up 4.2 yards per carry and so it is feasible that the Steelers get the run established to try and east the burden on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back.

Roethlisberger has been forced to cover up the deficiencies of the Pittsburgh Secondary by getting involved in a couple of shoot outs and that has seen the passing numbers look huge from a statistic point of view. However this week he is facing a Baltimore Secondary that has played the pass very well and who have gotten some strong pressure up front which may make it that much more difficult for Big Ben to move the chains through the air.

The Quarter Back has not been protected as well as he would have liked, while Interceptions have been an issue for Roethlisberger. There will be times where Pittsburgh get their yards through the air, especially with the Receivers they have, but overall it looks a tough game for them and I do like the Baltimore Ravens with the start.

Baltimore are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four visits to Pittsburgh, while the underdog is now 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven in this series. I just feel the better Defensive unit can make the key plays on the day and that should see the Ravens have every chance to cover when they play on Sunday Night Football against their hosts who are also on the short week.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 3 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)