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Showing posts with label July 10th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label July 10th. Show all posts

Friday, 10 July 2026

European Tour 10- European Darts Open Day 1 Picks 2026 (Friday 10th July)

A couple of Players Championship events were held earlier this week, but in the main, the PDC Tour has been on a little hiatus moving into the second half of the year.

This is when things really begin to ramp up though with more European Tour events and a Tour that has a second half that is filled with Ranking events after the field for the World Matchplay was confirmed.

That begins in mid-July on the same weekend as the World Cup Final is scheduled, but that also means the Matchplay will be gaining plenty of attention once the football has concluded and the tournament heats up.

Before that, the European Tour 10 event is to be played across this weekend in the format that has become very familiar to all.

Seeds will be joining the tournament on Saturday, but the First Round will be played across two Sessions on Day 1 on Friday before the event is concluded across a couple of Sessions on Sunday.


Andrew Gilding - 1.5 legs v Rob Owen: Beating Rob Owen is never going to be easy, but Andrew Gilding has something he likes about the match up and he can get through this First Round tie at the latest European Tour event.

Both players have been in decent form on the floor, but the Gilding experience is an important factor that gives him the edge.

Goldfinger will have noted the early losses suffered by Rob Owen at the Players Championship events played earlier this week and Andrew Gilding can back up his solid performance at European Tour 9 by making sure he gets into the weekend here.

The World Matchplay draw will be something that Andrew Gilding will be interested in seeing once it is released, but the focus is to have some momentum ahead of the trip to Blackpool and he can get the better of his Welsh opponent yet again.


Kim Huybrechts to win & most 180s v Samuel Price: These two players met on the floor earlier this year, but the key here is whether Kim Huybrechts can overcome the disappointment of missing the World Matchplay.

That does not take away from how well he has played in 2026, but it is important to keep building forward.

Kim Huybrechts is the favourite against Samuel Price who has lost his last eight Players Championship matches and the heavier scoring should come from the Belgian.

This is another step in the development for Price and his career, but Kim Huybrechts should overpower him on his way through to the Second Round.


Joe Cullen to win & over 1.5 180s v Charlie Manby: These two met in a high quality match on the Tour earlier this season and it was Joe Cullen who edged to the victory 6-4 in a Quarter Final at Players Championship 08.

Charlie Manby looked in decent shape on the floor in Players Championship 23, but Joe Cullen wasn't playing badly and just needs to get his doubling back up to par.

He has admitted that the scoring is not really an issue, but Cullen cannot afford to give away too many chances if he is going to have a decent run in this event.

You would expect Joe Cullen to put at least two maximums on the board, but this is going to come down to whether he can withstand the push that Charlie Manby will have and whether the former can hit his big doubles. That is hard to guess, but Joe Cullen should be motivated in a match like this and that is usually when we see his best efforts.

MY PICKS: Andrew Gilding - 1.5 Legs @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kim Huybrechts to Win & Most 180s @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Joe Cullen to Win & Over 1.5 180s @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 94-120, - 13.83 Units (211 Units Staked, - 6.55% Yield)

Thursday, 9 July 2026

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2026 (Friday 10th July)

The opening Ladies Semi Final was something pretty special, but Karolina Muchova's opponent is yet to be determined at the time of writing.

Once the second Semi Final is completed, I will update the Wimbledon numbers from the tournament, but this thread is focusing on the two Semi Finals to be played on Friday.

It was something of a surprise to read that the bottom half Semi Final will be played first, especially as they were on court on Wednesday and not Tuesday, but it is a positive for Novak Djokovic to have that slightly longer time to prepare for another big match on Centre Court.

Both favourites look very likely to come through, but matches are played on grass and not screens/paper, while dismissing Novak Djokovic to win any tennis match would be very foolish indeed.


Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: As soon as the Wimbledon draw was made two weeks ago, most fans would have been hoping for the latest battle between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic with the winner expecting to be favourite to win the title on Sunday.

Over the last couple of years, it has felt like Jannik Sinner has gotten on top of Novak Djokovic and the World Number One had beaten the Serb in five straight matches.

That alone would not have been an issue for someone like Novak Djokovic, but three of those wins had been earned at Grand Slams, including beating Djokovic at the Australian Open in 2024 and Wimbledon in 2025. Those are two tournaments that Novak Djokovic has loved throughout his career and to be beaten in the manner he had been would have certainly had some wondering if Djokovic would ever win another Grand Slam.

He admitted himself that beating both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz at the same tournament would be a considerable challenge, but the latter has been absent from the last couple of Grand Slam events. That means Novak Djokovic 'only' has to beat Jannik Sinner and he will have taken a great amount of confidence from the Australian Open Semi Final win over the Italian back in January.

Not only did it snap the losing run to Jannik Sinner, but Novak Djokovic will have taken great heart from outlasting the Italian in that Semi Final that lasted over four hours and needed to go the distance to determine a winner.

Novak Djokovic needed over five hours to win his Quarter Final, but the match was played on Tuesday and that means this is a situation where the former seven time Wimbledon Champion has had two days of recovery, rather than the usual one day between matches that would be the case at Grand Slam events. Beating Felix Auger Aliassime in the manner he did is a reminder that Novak Djokovic still has something in the tank, but he will be aware that he needs to find another level to beat the defending Champion on Centre Court.

Serving well has been the key for Novak Djokovic, but he is not the same returner as he was at his peak and that will offer plenty of encouragement to Jannik Sinner who has not won any of the last three Grand Slam tournaments played. He is the World Number One, but Sinner has yet to make a Grand Slam Final in 2026 and there is pressure on his shoulders, which perhaps contributed to a tougher than expected Quarter Final win.

Jannik Sinner has spent considerably less time on the court than 39 year old Novak Djokovic and that is going to be a potential factor, while the top Seed has been serving at a consistently high level.

He would like to show a bit more on the return of serve to really feel like his rhythm is in a good place, but Jannik Sinner should be happy enough with the match up and beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets in the 2025 Wimbledon Semi Final.

This one should be a bit more competitive, but Jannik Sinner should still have the qualities needed to find the breaks of serve at key times and eventually win with room to spare in this last four meeting on Centre Court.


Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Arthur Fery: An incredible performance in the Quarter Final has helped Arthur Fery into the Wimbledon Semi Final and he will be sitting alongside three Grand Slam Champions as the youngster looks to prevent the clock hitting midnight on his Cinderella run.

A straight sets win in the Quarter Final would have been just what the doctor ordered if Arthur Fery wants to put his best foot forward in this Semi Final.

Earlier in the tournament, Arthur Fery has invested so much time and energy on the court as he has battled out of very difficult spots to continue to make this unexpected run. The fans are firmly behind him and the British player is going to be moving just outside the top 32 positions in the World Rankings even if he is beaten on Friday.

The World Rankings will look after themselves and all Arthur Fery and his supporters will be thinking about is this Semi Final against the French Open Champion.

Alexander Zverev has never been able to put it all together at Wimbledon, but there was an immediate feeling that winning the French Open could see this player kick on and add Grand Slam titles to his collection really quickly. He knows he can get over the line on the biggest stage and Zverev has moved through the Wimbledon draw with a lot of confidence, although he did beat a Taylor Fritz suffering with an injury in the Quarter Final.

It may have been a factor, but Alexander Zverev will also believe he has been playing well enough to deserve his spot in the Semi Final and the serve has been a huge weapon for him. Serving well is going to be key in this one to offer the crowd little to get behind, while also reminding Fery of the kind of level he is facing, and it is no surprise that the Number 2 Seed is the big favourite.

Arthur Fery served well in the Quarter Final, but he had been put under pressure on that shot in the previous two wins and Alexander Zverev can do the same to him here.

Centre Court is going to be firmly behind the 24 year old who has come out of nowhere to put this run together at Wimbledon, but it would be a big surprise if it is a run that can continue onto the Final on Sunday.

You would have to say that Alexander Zverev is going to have to show improvement on the return of serve if he is going to complete the French Open-Wimbledon double that has proven to be so difficult for players down the years. Considering Zverev had never made the Quarter Final in SW19 before this tournament, a title here would really be a big surprise, but the German could not have hoped for a better Semi Final opponent and Alexander Zverev can wear down the upstart.

On current form, Arthur Fery can make a set or two competitive, but you would have to imagine that all of the emotions and physical exertions of the last two weeks will eventually get on top of the British player. He is playing with little to lose, but Fery does have something to aim at here and Alexander Zverev can use a big serve to keep him under pressure and ultimately come through with a solid scoreboard victory that sees him cover this handicap mark laid out.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 38-34, - 5.54 Units (142 Units Staked, - 3.90% Yield)

Wednesday, 9 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Thursday 10th July)

Four days remain at Wimbledon in 2025 and that means we are down to the last eight players at the tournament as the third Grand Slam of the season draws to a close.

By the end of Thursday, we will have the Ladies Final and the next Champion will be a step closer to achieving their aim.

Both favourites are rightly favoured in the Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11, although conditions are going to be far from easy with the temperature soaring in London.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: The Quarter Final proved to be a very exhausting occasion for Aryna Sabalenka, both mentally and physically, but she remains a part of the Wimbledon draw. After the win over Laura Siegemund, the World Number 1 admitted her thoughts had turned to leaving another Grand Slam without the trophy as the lower Ranked player's style bamboozled Sabalenka.

There were a lot of spins and slices, a change of rhythm between points and just the all-around grass court tennis style that so few play with these days.

Allowing her frustration to build, Aryna Sabalenka showed plenty of character and resolve to eventually come through in almost three hours on the court and the day of rest between the Quarter Final and Semi Final will do her good.

You can guarantee that Amanda Anisimova will emphasise with the Belarusian having reached the Final at Queen's Club last month before being beaten by veteran Tatjana Maria and all of the grass court nous that the older player had. That has not stopped Amanda Anisimova from building her confidence on this surface and a strong run through to the Semi Final will have added to her belief.

This is also a match up that Amanda Anisimova has enjoyed- she has won five of the eight previous matches against Aryna Sabalenka, although the World Number 1 will point out that three of the last four have been won by herself. That includes revenge wins over the American at the Australian Open in 2024 and French Open in 2025 having lost at both of those Slams to Amanda Anisimova in 2019.

Aryna Sabalenka will appreciate that she will enjoy this match up much more than the Quarter Final in that she is going to be opposed by someone who will want to hit through the ball as much as she will herself. That should mean an 'easier' rhythm to understand, although Sabalenka will be well aware of the threat that Amanda Anisimova will bring onto the court.

Both are going to be well aware of the importance of serving well- on what is expected to be a hot day, the ball is going to be tough to deal with if the server is playing at a top level.

The consistent serving at the tournament has been with Anisimova, but there is little doubt that the higher level can come from Aryna Sabalenka and that is where the World Number 1 may prove to have an edge. She has not always looked at her most convincing this year at Wimbledon, but Sabalenka has shown plenty of character to come through difficult moments and she may also be a bit more battle-hardened having had a tougher pathway into the Semi Final.

When they met at Roland Garros last month, Amanda Anisimova was being given a couple more games on the handicap and she was able to cover, despite a straight sets defeat. This time the spread looks a bit more manageable for Aryna Sabalenka to win and cover, just as long as the top Seed can deal with the nerves and tension she has displayed at the business end of Slams throughout her career.

A first Wimbledon Final will mean a lot to Aryna Sabalenka and she can win a big-hitting Semi Final.


Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Belinda Bencic: The second Semi Final in the Ladies tournament is the one occasion in this Grand Slam where players are actually scheduled to play on back to back days.

Both winners came through in straight sets on Wednesday, which will help, although there was a slight concern about Belinda Bencic's health having called for the trainer towards the end of the second set.

However, it is the Wimbledon Semi Final and that is going to mean the adrenaline will be used to push Bencic through.

A bigger test may be the opponent standing on the other side of the net, even if Iga Swiatek is playing in her first Wimbledon Semi Final too.

The Quarter Final win over Liudmila Samsonova was another solid one for Swiatek, although she will know that she needs to improve her serving having faced ten Break Points in that win. She saved eight of those, but Iga Swiatek had been much more dominant behind serve before that victory and she will look for that to be a big weapon for her against Belinda Bencic.

In previous meetings between the players, the Iga Swiatek serve has been a big advantage for her, although Belinda Bencic has shown her own qualities behind that shot. It was the key to getting past youngster Mirra Andreeva and the Swiss player is going to be well aware of the importance of trying to keep the former World Number 1 under the pump.

Playing on the grass should help, but Belinda Bencic is going to need to be healthy and it is important to note that Iga Swiatek has beaten her here at Wimbledon before.

That was in July 2023 and it will give the multiple time Grand Slam Champion a little more belief in her ability to make it through to a maiden Wimbledon Final. It is Iga Swiatek who has dominated the break points in recent matches against Belinda Bencic and she has been playing well enough to put the pressure on the World Number 35 if there is any lingering injury concern.

Matches between the pair have been competitive, but it is Iga Swiatek who is playing at a good enough level to work her way through to the Final behind a solid win.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 3-2, + 0.66 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.60% Yield)

Wednesday, 10 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 10th July)

The tournament might have been affected by the ridiculous amount of rain that has been around in London over the last couple of weeks, but at least the Singles events are right on schedule.

The roof may not be needed on either show court on Day 10 of Wimbledon when the rest of the Semi Finalists are confirmed.


Taylor Fritz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There is a big opportunity for both Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti on Day 10 of The Championships as they bid to reach a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.

It was supposed to be a quarter of the draw where the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev would have made a big impact, but both were upset early on in the tournament.

Take nothing away from Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz, especially not the latter who came from two sets down to beat a top four player in Alexander Zverev in the Fourth Round on Monday, but you can also make a strong guess at the fact that both players in this Quarter Final are very comfortable with the match up presented to them.

The two players both enjoyed strong grass court tournaments in the build up to Wimbledon, which means both Musetti and Fritz should be playing with a lot of confidence on the surface. The former was a beaten Finalist at Queen's Club, while Taylor Fritz won the Eastbourne title and has now won eight matches in success on the grass.

Taylor Fritz looks to be the more battle-hardened of the two players having secured two top 20 wins already at Wimbledon and both against solid opponents. On the other side of the net, Lorenzo Musetti's best win in SW19 is against the current World Number 37 and the way he was handled by Tommy Paul in the Queen's Final will certainly be something that Fritz will have noted.

A couple of years ago, Taylor Fritz was able to beat Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets at Wimbledon and you have to give the American a big edge on the serve. Throughout this run, Fritz has really put opponents under significant pressure thanks to his serving numbers and this match is likely going to be placed on Court One, which is the quicker of the two show case courts.

It should further enable Fritz to rattle through some of his service games and keep the pressure on Lorenzo Musetti, despite the fact the Italian has been serving well in the last three matches. His win over a big server in the Fourth Round will have given Musetti plenty of belief ahead of the Quarter Final, even if Taylor Fritz is an all around superior player to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

The grass court defeats to Matteo Berrettini and Tommy Paul last month are perhaps more of an indicator as to how this match may develop.

Lorenzo Musetti did win his last match against Taylor Fritz, but that was on a clay court and the faster surfaces should really give the American a significant edge.

The line is not an easy one to cover if Lorenzo Musetti is playing his best, but you have to believe the Taylor Fritz serve may just force a couple of capitulations thanks to scoreboard pressure and that will see the World Number 12 move through.

Taylor Fritz has played in three previous Grand Slam Quarter Finals, including one at Wimbledon, and that experience edge may also help in an event where he looks to be playing the superior tennis compared with his opponent.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: There are still a number of the grass court title winners playing in the Men's draw at Wimbledon this week, even as we move into the Quarter Final Round.

Those players will have a lot of confidence and belief in their tennis having also won four matches at Wimbledon and one of those is Alex De Minaur who has somewhat flown under the radar. That may have something to do with benefiting from a walkover in the Third Round, but a title winner on the grass courts of Hertogenbosch will be given plenty of respect.

The home fans may want to get behind him anyway seeing as De Minaur is in a relatively high-profile relationship with British women's number one Katie Boulter, although the crowd may be a little more aware of how they made sound to seven time Champion Novak Djokovic.

After cruising past Holger 'RUUUUUUNE' in the Fourth Round, Novak Djokovic's on-court interview suggested that the fans were perhaps happier to use this as cheer for his opponent as an opportunity to boo him. There were some tense exchanges and it is perhaps clear that Novak Djokovic continues to feel underappreciated despite moving past both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on the all-time Grand Slam Winners list.

Once again it is likely to be his opponent who receives more of the support with his connections to British Tennis, but Djokovic might just come out with a bit more fire, which is when he plays his best tennis.

As mentioned before the tournament began, Novak Djokovic is still one of the top grass court players in the world if he is healthy and the four wins here suggests he is capable of going all the way for an eighth time in SW19.

He is a favourite in this Quarter Final, but Novak Djokovic will know that it could be tougher to shorten the points as he has been trying to do all week. The defensive skills of Alex De Minaur makes him dangerous, although the Australian has a vulnerable serve and that is where the former World Number 1 can really come into his own.

Alex De Minaur has reached a career best World Number 7 and he is on course to actually break new ground at the end of this tournament. However, his lack of Grand Slam experience could be an issue with this being his third ever Quarter Final at this level compared with Novak Djokovic who has made it through to his fifteenth Wimbledon Quarter Final alone.

The key to this Quarter Final is the way that Novak Djokovic is serving and the feeling is that he is going to earn a few cheaper games than his opponent.

There are positives for Alex De Minaur to take away from his grass court successes this summer, but the serve is a bit more vulnerable and Novak Djokovic may just be able to find a way to cover even in a match where he may drop another set.


Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: After barely having any main draw Grand Slam experience as a Singles player, Barbora Krejcikova surprisingly won the French Open in 2021 and followed up with three decent runs at the next three Grand Slams played.

At the end of the Australian Open in 2022, Barbora Krejcikova had reached World Number 2, but it has been a tough time for her since then and she was fortunate to earn a Seeding for Wimbledon.

Twelve months ago, the Czech player arrived here just outside the top 10 of the World Rankings and that should underline how difficult the last twelve months have been for a player now down at World Number 32. Her four wins at Wimbledon will be a huge boost though and another win or two would see Barbora Krejcikova move back into the top 20, while also alleviating any fears of falling out of the Seeding positions for the US Open.

She did reach the Australian Open Quarter Final earlier this season, but Barbora Krejcikova had failed to progress beyond the Second Round in four of her previous five Grand Slams before her surprising run under the radar here at Wimbledon. With top names falling all around, there may be a feeling in the Krejcikova camp that she has the tennis to secure a second upset Grand Slam title.

Performances early in the draw at Wimbledon were not very impressive, but Krejcikova looks to have improved her level in the last couple of matches. One of those was against an injured opponent so cannot be given the same respect as the one in the Fourth Round when the Czech player got the better of Danielle Collins.

Next up is a former Wimbledon Juniors Champion in Jelena Ostapenko who also had limited Grand Slam experience before surprisingly surging to the French Open title in 2017. She is still only 27 years old, but Ostapenko has not had the kind of impact as a Singles player that was threatened with that run to the French Open title as a teenager.

She did reach the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2018 before losing to eventual Champion Angelique Kerber, but Jelena Ostapenko was not able to progress past the Fourth Round of any Grand Slam until Melboune in January 2023. Later in the year she reached the Quarter Final at the US Open too, so recent experiences may just settle the Latvian who will go for all of her shots without any hestitation.

After a pretty poor grass court campaign over the last month, Jelena Ostapenko has blitzed the competition at Wimbledon and is playing about as well as anyone left in the draw. Not only has she yet to drop a set, but no player has managed to win more than three games in any of the sets played and Jelena Ostapenko's numbers are very impressive.

With three wins in a row over Barbora Krejcikova behind her, including beating her in the Birmingham Final on a grass court last year, Jelena Ostapenko has to be feeling confident about her tennis. She is a player that will go for big shots, which can lead to a host of errors, but the serve has been working well and an aggressive return might keep her fellow former French Open Champion under the cosh.

It has been an easy tournament for Jelena Ostapenko so far, but that is rarely the case for her over stretches of periods- however, the Latvian is playing with a real sense of belief and expectation that can see her progress and cover this handicap mark set by the layers.


Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: After winning her Fourth Round match due to Anna Kalinskaya being forced to retire, Elena Rybakina was asked if she is feeling any additional pressure as the highest Seed left in the Wimbledon Ladies tournament and as a former Champion here.

The World Number 4 made it clear that she is not thinking about anything but the next match and that has to be the right approach with matches still to be won on the grass and not on paper.

Arguably this is the toughest match that Elena Rybakina could face out of the players remaining in the last eight of the draw and Elina Svitolina showed twelve months ago how good she can be on the grass courts of SW19.

Added motivation is there to give her compatriots something to cheer them up as Ukraine continues to deal with the Russian offensive in a war that has lasted well over two years already. Elina Svitolina wore a black ribbon in support of those affected by a major Russian strike on the eve of her Fourth Round match and the World Number 21 has admitted that she is finding it tough to focus on her tennis.

Despite that, Elina Svitolina is performing at a high level when she is on the court and she has been serving very effectively, which makes things all the easier on the grass. Three of the four wins have been against opponents that Svitolina would have expected to beat, but the victory over Ons Jabeur in the Third Round is very impressive, especially in the manner that win was put together.

Beating a two time Runner Up is one thing, but beating a former Wimbledon Champion is another and that is the challenge that Elina Svitolina will be facing in this Quarter Final. When the two players met at the French Open, you may have thought the surface would have aided Svitolina, but it was Elena Rybakina who came through with a strong win and is now on a much more favoured court.

Neither player can point to a deep grass court run in preparation for Wimbledon, but the level within the tournament has to be respected.

Elena Rybakina has certainly enjoyed the benefit of being a top four Seed with the way the draw has panned out for her and so there is some concern that she is not going to be ready for a big step up in class. Being familiar with the Elina Svitolina game will help, but Rybakina will know that she will need to serve well and avoid a rash of unforced errors if she is going to edge past this opponent.

The competition level has to be considered, but even then the 2022 Wimbledon Champion has played really well in working her way through the tournament.

Elina Svitolina will offer resistance, but she was pretty well beaten in her Semi Final here last season and the World Number 4 might just wear her down with big serving and aggressive groundstrokes through the course of this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 17-17, - 3.94 Units (68 Units Staked, - 5.79% Yield)

Monday, 10 July 2023

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2023 (July 10th)

I've had a frustrating weekend at Wimbledon, but nothing would have prepared me for Sunday when nothing went right almost from the off.

It does frustrate, but there is nothing you can do about it when those minor inches gang up to cause a tidal wave of issues.

The day before I had one Pick lose in straight sets despite losing a total of 3 points more than the opponent (Alexander Zverev), and then you can just see how Hubert Hurkacz was able to save a Break Point in the second set to sum up the Sunday plays.

Days like this happen, but it is hard not to be irritated by them.

Inches matter so much in tennis and a couple of points here and there would have changed things around. Instead I had to sit through watching matches get really close, almost within two points of finding some winners, but ultimately seeing those crumble all around the courts.


There is still a week to go before we get to the end of Wimbledon so time to turn things back around and that has to be the focus after a really poor Day 7.

Fourth Round action is completed on Monday, as long as the organisers get a little luck and avoid seeing really long matches on their main show courts, and there are some quality matches scheduled for The Championships.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Holger Rune: Any time you see a player battle as hard as Holger Rune has done to win his Third Round match you have to give that player a lot of credit. However, in the Grand Slam setting, it is also very difficult to ignore the fact that he would have invested a lot of effort, emotionally and physically, to win a five setter which lasted a minute shy of a full four hours.

Holger Rune had little grass court expectation going into the 2023 season having lost all of his previous matches on the surface, but he played well at Queen's Club when reaching the Semi Final and has won three matches at Wimbledon to enter the second week for the first time. The manner of his win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Third Round will have been a huge boost for the young player, especially as Holger Rune had to fight back from tough positions in the final set, but this is another big challenge for him.

Not many would have tipped up Grigor Dimitrov for a huge run considering his drop in standards over the last couple of years and most will feel his chances of winning a Grand Slam have perhaps passed him by.

The Bulgarian has long been a comfortable grass court player and this is a time when there are not many players that feel that good on this surface. Winning the tournament is never going to be easy while Novak Djokovic is around, but Grigor Dimitrov is in the other side of the draw and there may be some confidence building towards reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final.

Carlos Alcaraz ended Grigor Dimitrov's run at Queen's Club, but he has won all nine sets at Wimbledon and the win over Frances Tiafoe was impressive. While he did have to finish that off on Sunday, Dimitrov did not need a lot of time on the court and it would be quite amazing if he is going to use fatigue as any excuse in this match.

Despite being a lot younger, Holger Rune has invested a lot in his Third Round match and there is a feeling that he could come out a little flat.

We saw that in Paris when Holger Rune won a tough five setter in the Fourth Round and did not start playing in the Quarter Final until he was two sets down against Casper Ruud and there is a feeling that we could see something similar here. Casper Ruud is clearly very good on the clay and on Monday Holger Rune will be playing someone who is comfortable on the grass and Grigor Dimitrov may be able to have a bit too much know-how for his opponent in the bid for a Quarter Final place.


Christopher Eubanks-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 42.5 games: There may be some frustration with the way the Wimbledon organisers have handled his matches as Stefanos Tsitsipas seemingly has played a Singles match every day of the tournament so far. Once again the World Number 5 has been placed on an outside court as the event moves into the second week, but the expectation is that it will be a dry and warm day in order to complete this Fourth Round match.

Those conditions are perhaps not ideal for Stefanos Tsitsipas as he faces the huge serving Christopher Eubanks who won a grass court title in the lead up to Wimbledon as he reached a new career high World Ranking, while he has moved past the Second Round in a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.

Reaching the second week is going to mean another jump in the World Ranking so Christoper Eubanks will be playing with a lot of confidence. His serve has proved a potent weapon having held 92% of his service games played on the grass before the tournament and Eubanks has dropped his serve just four times at Wimbledon.

Now he comes up against someone in Stefanos Tsitsipas who has found it tough to get into a rhythm on the return on most surfaces outside of the clay courts and who has been pushed to five sets twice already in three wins. Beating Laslo Djere in straight sets is a huge boost for Tsitsipas, but he won just 28% of return points on the day and was simply able to win the big points at critical times throughout the match.

Like his opponent, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be very pleased with his serving numbers even if he has dropped four sets already in three matches in SW19. The Greek player has faced just eight Break Points in those matches, but it has seen him drop serve three times and the poor returning ability has meant those breaks have ended up being costly in terms of sets won and lost.

It will be the case in this match and the feeling is that two strong servers will make it very difficult to have their serve broken with any kind of consistency throughout this Fourth Round match. Neither Stefanos Tsitsipas nor Christopher Eubanks will be that convinced about his return, and it does suggest that this match going at least four sets will put the total game line under threat.

They are meeting for the first time, but that may mean a little more time is needed to get into the rhythm of the serve that each player is facing.

Both won in straight sets in the Third Round, but Christoper Eubanks and Stefanos Tsitsipas have been forced into a fourth set in each of the other four matches played at Wimbledon. Two tie-breakers might be needed to get over this high total set, but the serving power of both coupled with relatively limited returns means anything other than a straight sets win for Eubanks or Tsitsipas has every chance of moving over this number.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Christopher Eubanks-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 42.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Jiri Lehecka Over 37.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 49-45, - 2.98 Units (188 Units Staked, - 1.59% Yield)

Friday, 9 July 2021

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2021- Ladies Final (July 10th)

The two Wimbledon Finals will be played over the weekend with the first being the Ladies Final on Saturday before the Men take centre stage on Sunday.

My thoughts on the Ladies Final can be read below:


Ashleigh Barty-Karolina Pliskova over 21.5 games: Only one of the last thirteen Ladies Singles Finals played at Wimbledon have needed a final set decider and all of the last seven have been won in straight sets. It has been a long time since there has been a truly competitive Ladies Wimbledon Final, but the performances of both Ashleigh Barty and Karolina Pliskova over the last fortnight have been encouraging.

They have previously been involved in many competitive matches against one another with four of their seven matches needing a deciding set to determine a winner. Ashleigh Barty has gotten the better of the majority of those matches, and the Australian rightly goes into the Final as the favourite having previously won a Grand Slam title and with a strong love of the grass courts.

Karolina Pliskova has played in a Grand Slam Final before which will offer her some experience to fall back upon, but her run at Wimbledon has arguably been stronger than the one Ashleigh Barty has produced and her game is also very well suited to the grass courts. She has won titles on the surface before and there has been a confidence about her serving which is going to make Karolina Pliskova very dangerous.

However, Ashleigh Barty has also been producing solid serving and she gets plenty from that shot on this surface. There are one or two issues with the Pliskova serve that were highlighted by big hitting Aryna Sabalenka in the Semi Final, but in the main the Czech player will feel she is getting into the return games this week and I would not be surprised if this is the most competitive Ladies Final we have seen at Wimbledon for some time.

In their previous matches both players have gotten plenty out of their serve against the other and I think that could be evident in this Final too. I think the two players will be looking to serve well and try and make sure they look after that element of their tennis and it could mean a competitive match which sees the total games line surpassed.

Karolina Pliskova has really been thriving behind the serve and she has only dropped her serve four times in her six Wimbledon wins and I think that is key for the Czech underdog. If she can serve as well as she has, I think Pliskova can make this very close and she may even be able to upset the odds, but Ashleigh Barty has long been a tremendous grass court player and I would be surprised if she was to fall away.

The Australian has not been as consistent behind serve as Karolina Pliskova, but Ashleigh Barty might be the more stable when it comes to the big points and it just feels like a match that is going to go long.

MY PICK: Ashleigh Barty-Karolina Pliskova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tuesday, 9 July 2019

Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2019 (July 10th)

The women's Semi Final line up was put together on Tuesday at Wimbledon and it was more disappointment for Johanna Konta.

After a tough few months I do think Konta has a lot to be proud of after reaching the Semi Final at the French Open and now the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but there is obviously some room for improvement to take the next step in her career. I wasn't impressed with some of the questioning from the media which was as patronising as Konta felt it was, but the British Number 1 should look at the last two months as a big positive to take into the North American hard court swing which begins later this month.


While the tournament is over as far as British hopes go in the Singles events, the four players in the Ladies Semi Final should produce a good end to Wimbledon. I think all four will be confident they can win the title here, but Serena Williams is rightly the favourite considering her successes on the surface compared with the other three left. Simona Halep, Elina Svitolina and Barbora Strycova have all had strong tournaments, but Williams is the stand out player and I do think she is going to end up tying Margaret Court's record number of Slams on Saturday afternoon.


Now it is the turn of the men who play their Quarter Final matches across Centre Court and Court One on Wednesday. Most fans will have their fingers crossed that we are going to see Rafael Nadal versus Roger Federer on Friday in what has the making of a blockbuster Semi Final, but Novak Djokovic looks to have the path in front of him to be in great condition to defend the title he won twelve months ago.

After a 3-1 Day 9 for the Tennis Picks, I do think Wednesday is going to be the day for the favourites as I look to add to the numbers for the week. All four have some big numbers to cover, but I do believe they are in the better form than their opponents and can find the breaks of serve to get into a position to beat the handicap marks set.

You can see my thoughts and breakdowns below and also the updated record from Wimbledon 2019.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Guido Pella: The top half of the men's draw at Wimbledon always felt like one from which Novak Djokovic was going to emerge for the Final. Outside of the defending Champion, the upsets have come thick and fast through the rest of this half of the draw and that means there is a massive opportunity for Roberto Bautista Agut and Guido Pella to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final when they meet in this Quarter Final on Wednesday.

Guido Pella should be given a lot of respect as someone who has managed to work through three Rounds as the underdog. His wins over Andres Seppi, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic have all come from that spot and more impressive is the fact that in the last two Rounds he has beaten two former Wimbledon Finalists.

It has not been an easy road for Pella with two five set wins in four matches played and the accumulated fatigue has to be an issue for him even with the day of rest between the Fourth Round and Quarter Final. While not having the best grass court pedigree, Pella has to be respected for some of the results achieved in the last twelve months on the surface as he also can add Marin Cilic's name to Anderson and Raonic as former Wimbledon Runners Up he has beaten at the tournament.

Any player who wins four matches in a row has to be considered in good form, but I will have to point out that Pella has not been dominant in any of his wins and three of the matches could have easily gone another way. The Argentinian is serving about as well as he can, but he has faced at least nine break points in each of his last three matches and I do wonder if he can continue to bite down and produce so much quality in those big moments.

If there is an issue with accumulated fatigue, this may not be an ideal opponent for Guido Pella. Roberto Bautista Agut is someone who will be happy to get involved in the longer rallies and the Spaniard has been producing numbers at a considerably higher level than Pella in the tournament so far.

The Spaniard was in good form in Halle in the only grass court tournament he took in before Wimbledon began and he has worked his way through the draw here without breaking too much of a sweat. Roberto Bautista Agut is yet to drop a set in the tournament and he has only been broken twice in four matches which isn't a surprise when you think of how well he he has been serving both here and in Halle.

It has allowed Bautista Agut to open up on the return of serve and he has created at least nine break points in each match played at Wimbledon. He has converted at least three in each match too and Bautista Agut is someone who is going to put the Pella serve under severe examination compared to returners like Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic.

These two players have met twice before and Bautista Agut has been able to break in 55% of return games against the Pella serve which is likely going to be something that the two players are somewhat aware of. On a grass court it is very unlikely that Bautista Agut will get to that number, but there should be a confidence in the Spaniard's mind that he can get to the Pella serve.

Roberto Bautista Agut has also held in 84% of service games played against Guido Pella and his serving here this past ten days suggests he can keep that going. It is unlikely to be a match that quickly runs away in one direction, but I think the constant pressure is going to be provided by Bautista Agut and he can break down and wear down Guido Pella as he moves into a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final and also covers this number on the handicap.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v David Goffin: The defending Champion was always likely to be heading into Wimbledon as the favourite, but that position was only strengthened when the draw for the tournament was made. Novak Djokovic has not been pushed too far in the first four Rounds of the event and he is very much expected to come out of the top half of the draw to make the Final on Sunday.

This might be the more awkward of the potential matches left for Novak Djokovic when he meets David Goffin, a former top 10 player who has impressed over the last month on the grass courts.

The Belgian has not had as routine a path through to the Quarter Final as Djokovic, but the fact that Goffin has reached this Round will be a boost for a player that has had an inconsistent 2019 so far. It follows on from his run to the Halle Final in June, although I would worry about needing five sets in the Third Round and four sets in the Fourth Round when it comes to how much tennis Goffin is likely going to need to play to win a match like this one.

David Goffin is going to be very happy with his serving through the first four matches, but there is little doubt that this is going to be the biggest test of that weapon. Daniil Medvedev put Goffin under pressure with the return in the Third Round which needed five sets to separate them, but now he has to deal with Novak Djokovic who has consistently won at least 40% of return points on the grass since June 2017.

The match up has been a good one for Djokovic against Goffin too with breaks of serve in 30% of return games against the Belgian. That is significantly better than Goffin's number of 16% in the same category against Djokovic and I do think the difference in returning and serving will be a crucial difference on the day.

So far in the tournament Djokovic has shown the serve is working very effectively with at least 71% points won behind serve in each of the four matches played. In the last two Rounds Novak Djokovic has not been broken and he has created at least nine break points in each of the matches played and I do think it is going to be difficult for Goffin to really challenge those numbers.

He is the best returner Djokovic has faced in the tournament so Goffin should have his successes, but the latter has not played any tennis on the big two courts at Wimbledon and the conditions have been different there. Novak Djokovic is well used to the surroundings and that is also going to be a factor as I think the World Number 1 is going to be able to pull clear for a good looking win in this Quarter Final.

There will be some quality tennis on show and I do think Goffin will play his part, but the Belgian is 2-10 in matches against top 20 players on the grass and he is 1-7 when facing top 10 opponents. In the matches against top 10 players, Goffin has held in only 73% of his service games and broken in 12% of return games played. There have been some competitive losses, but I think the match up looks a tough one for him and Novak Djokovic should be able to win one set with two more breaks of serve than David Goffin which can set him up for a win and a cover in this Quarter Final.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The chance has presented itself for Kei Nishikori to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final outside of the US Open as he reached the Quarter Final at a fifth Slam in a row. It is far from an easy opportunity for Nishikori as he takes on Roger Federer for a place in the Friday Semi Final, and I am not surprised that Federer is a clear favourite to make it past the Japanese star.

I do think Nishikori will come into the match with some confidence having dropped a single set in the tournament so far. He should have made life easier in the fourth set of his win over Mikhail Kukushkin in the Fourth Round, but Nishikori should have plenty of belief in his chances of upsetting Roger Federer.

In the first three Rounds Nishikori had been dominant behind the serve which set up three comfortable wins, but Kukushkin pushed him in the last Round. Kei Nishikori is going to need to produce his best serving effort to have a chance of the upset in this match, but he is going up against Roger Federer playing some of the best tennis out there at Wimbledon.

Since dropping the first set against Lloyd Harris, Roger Federer has won twelve sets in a row and he has largely been very, very dominant. There still have to be some questions about the returning Federer is able to produce, but he has found his best form on that side of his game in the tournament and the bigger positive for him has to be the efficient way he has been dealing with the break points that have been produced.

It is going to be that kind of returning that could put Nishikori under huge pressure especially as Federer is serving as well as anyone left in the draw. Roger Federer has only been broken in two games in four matches played at Wimbledon and I do think it will be very difficult for Nishikori to get into some of those games despite the form he has shown in his return games over the last ten days.

That is especially the case when you think Kei Nishikori has broken in just 13% of return games played against top 10 Ranked players on the grass. In those matches he is holding just 76% of service games played too and I think the Roger Federer serve is going to open things up for the former eight time Champion to have a really free look at the return of serve.

Kei Nishikori did stun Roger Federer on an indoor court at the ATP Finals last November in their last match, but in general he has struggled to match the former World Number 1. They have met ten times previously and Nishikori has held just 72% of his service games played compared with Federer's 84% number and I think we will see a difference between them in this Quarter Final too.

Their sole previous match on the grass came in 2014 in Halle that Federer won in straight sets. It was a competitive match with Federer's serve making the slight difference on the day and I think he is in the form to back that up here. With the serving seeing Federer come through more difficult moments than Nishikori, I can see the eight time Wimbledon Champion eventually pulling away for a strong win.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Sam Querrey: Yet another competent grass courter from down the years is standing in front of Rafael Nadal as Wimbledon reaches the Quarter Final Round in the men's draw. So far Nadal has handled the tough opponents with wonderful aplomb, but Sam Querrey is playing with plenty of confidence having reached the Final in Eastbourne just a couple of days before Wimbledon began.

The American missed the entirety of the European clay court season, but it has turned out to be an effective decision as he has rolled through Wimbledon with just two sets dropped. It does have to be said that Sam Querrey has benefited from the kind of draw that I would have expected him to negotiate, but now the step up in level of competition won't be lost on him.

Much will depend on how big Querrey can serve on Wednesday as that continues to be the foundation on which his successes are built. In Eastbourne he held 92% of his service games through the tournament and that enables Querrey to free his arms when it comes to having a go at breaking an opponent's serve which he had been doing fairly regularly on the south coast of England.

The serve has continued to be a huge weapon for Querrey at Wimbledon as he has won at least 73% of service points played in each of the four matches here. In the last three Rounds the American has improved that number each time from 73 to 74 to 75 and he will be aware that a strong serving day is needed here. Sam Querrey should be confident having been broken just once in four matches, although he has faced at least four break points in three of those wins.

Now he has to take on Rafael Nadal who has been returning very effectively throughout the tournament except when he played Nick Kyrgios. That is the blueprint for Querrey if he is going to upset the odds, but Kyrgios played a care-free brand of tennis that I am not convinced the American will in yet another Grand Slam Quarter Final for him.

Rafael Nadal has broken each of his opponents at least twice at Wimbledon and the way he managed to break down Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has to be the way he wants to approach this one. Once he gets into rallies of four or more shots, Nadal will feel the edge is very much with him and the Spaniard has returned at a high level on the grass since June 2017.

It is the Nadal serve that should build the pressure in this one as he has won at least 78% of service points played in each of the last three Rounds after opening up with a 70% number in his win over Yuichi Sugita in the First Round. The performances have been such that Nadal has not even faced a break point in the last two Rounds and I think it will be a factor in helping him cover this big handicap mark against a player who has wins over Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray at Wimbledon before.

It was Sam Querrey who won their last match back in 2017, but the overall numbers show that he has been able to hold 74% of his service games compared to Rafael Nadal at 87%. If you take their three matches not played on the clay courts, which all came on the hard courts, those numbers change to 80% and 89% with Rafael Nadal the latter number.

The challenge for Sam Querrey is to make sure he can keep the pressure on Rafael Nadal with the huge serving he can produce. If he gets into a rhythm it will be a very tough match for the Spaniard, but effectively we have seen he is able to exert enough control from his return of serve to force Querrey to beat him on the ground and eventually I would think Nadal is too much for him.

This is a huge number of games to cover if Sam Querrey is serving to his very best level, but I think Rafael Nadal might be the best performer at Wimbledon in the men's tournament. He looks to be peaking towards the Final and Nadal has come through a much tougher set of matches than anyone else and with a dominant set of results behind him.

In previous matches, Rafael Nadal might have dropped sets to Sam Querrey but he has eventually worn down the American and found the breaks of serve to turn those matches in his favour. I think something similar could happen in this Quarter Final and I will look for Rafael Nadal to make it four from four for the favourites in this Quarter Final Round.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 50-37, + 19.12 Units (174 Units Staked, + 10.99% Yield)

Tuesday, 10 July 2018

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2018 (July 10th)

The World Cup has really overshadowed the Wimbledon Tennis Grand Slam tournament for me and I am sure for many others which has meant we have quietly reached the business end of the third Slam of the season.

On Tuesday the focus is on the women's draw with the four Quarter Final matches all played on the same day and it has been a strange tournament that has seen the top TEN Seeds all exit the tournament. While the upsets have been coming thick and fast there are still three former Grand Slam Champions still in the draw and they are separated from one another which should mean there is still a strong winner of the tournament.

Of course we have seen a number of the WTA players pick up a maiden Slam in the last twelve months with the last three all being won by a player that hadn't won a Slam before. With that in mind it would not be a huge surprise if there is another first time winner here at Wimbledon, although Serena Williams looks a strong favourite to me going into the final five days of the event.


Manic Monday was almost an amazing day for the Tennis Picks but I will settle with a strong return of winners compared with losers. However I wasn't far away from having a truly tremendous day with a couple of points here and there hurting me from having a much stronger winning record.

In saying that I won't complain about a successful day for the Tennis Picks with Gilles Simon another likely winner as long as one of the players don't pull out of a match that is entering a fourth set on Tuesday after light called off play.

On Tuesday the main focus will be on the women's Quarter Finals though as all four matches take up the schedule on Centre Court and Court One on the day.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: With the top ten Seeds in the women's tournament at Wimbledon out of the event before the Quarter Final line up was completed it has been left to Angelique Kerber to be the highest Seeded player in the draw.

It would be foolish to read too much into that and Kerber as a two time former Grand Slam Winner as well as a former Wimbledon Finalist is all too aware of that. She has already had to come through some difficult matches to reach the Quarter Final and Kerber will be well aware of the talent that Daria Kasatkina possesses.

Matches between these players have been very close and both Kerber and Kasatkina have had their moments where they dominated the other. The most recent of those matches came in Eastbourne on the grass in the days before the tournament at Wimbledon began and it was Kerber who deserved her victory even if the last two sets needed tie-breakers to separate them.

This Quarter Final is likely to be a close match too because both players are very good returning players and neither possesses a serve that is going to be offering up a lot of cheap points even on the grass courts. Out of the two players I would suggest the Kasatkina run to the Quarter Final has come out of left field a little more than Kerber's just because the young Russian has yet to really show her best tennis on this surface.

However the win over Ashleigh Barty is about as good as any win that Kerber can put up alongside that one. That will have given Kasatkina confidence even if her numbers on the grass courts have not been the best in the last couple of years, while her Quarter Final defeat to Sloane Stephens at the French Open in June would have given Kasatkina vital experience to help her in this match.

Even then I think the Kerber numbers have been very strong on the grass courts and she has always looked comfortable here at Wimbledon. I think she will be the player who is able to turn a few more defensive rallies into strong offensive ones and I think Kerber will get the better of a number of break points that both players will create in this one.

It won't be a surprise if there are a few breaks of serve in this one, but I will look for Kerber to get the better of Kasatkina and make it through to the Semi Final.


Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: There is every chance this could end up being the best of the four Quarter Final matches to be played on Tuesday with both Jelena Ostapenko and Dominika Cibulkova showing fine form over the past nine days at Wimbledon.

Both are competent grass court players and neither has dropped a set in the tournament although I have to give Cibulkova the slight edge when it comes to the level of opponent she has beaten so far this week. The win over Johanna Konta is the stand out performance either player has produced, but I have to respect the way Ostapenko has fought back from a couple of difficult moments too.

It is Cibulkova who has won the two previous meetings between these players, but the last of those came before Ostapenko won her maiden Grand Slam title at the French Open in 2017. Her early exit in the defence of her title would have hurt the Latvian, but she has bounced back with some strong results on the grass courts.

The key for Ostapenko is making sure she gets plenty of first serves into play and is not overcommitting to her groundstrokes which can lead to a number of unforced errors flying off her racquet in quick succession. Someone like Cibulkova will lap up those kind of mistakes, but she will also be concerned that she doesn't allow Ostapenko to see too many second serves against which the younger player should have a lot of success.

You do have to factor in the obvious motivation Cibulkova has been playing with after seeing Wimbledon decide to bump her from the Seedings to incorporate Serena Williams. That makes her dangerous especially with the strong returning numbers being backed up by decent serving displays and I would not be massively surprised if we see a third set decider in this one.

However I think it is Ostapenko who has shown the more consistent performances on this surface over the last few seasons and I think she will get through this match and reach a Semi Final in another Grand Slam event.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: After having an issue with her shoulder which made serving an almost impossibility for Serena Williams at the French Open there wouldn't have been a huge rush to back the American to win the title here at Wimbledon.

Being a multiple time former Wimbledon Champion always made Serena Williams a threat, but the feeling was that somebody would get the better of a player that has not been on the Tour very much in the last twenty months.

Instead the women's draw has seen the top names falling all around Serena Williams and her own performances have remained steady enough to think she gets the better of the enigmatic Italian Camila Giorgi.

I like the way Giorgi plays at times, but she is inconsistent to say the least although I have rarely seen her overawed in matches. I don't think Giorgi will hold much trepidation in taking on Williams on the show courts at Wimbledon and she hits the ball big enough to give Serena plenty to think about.

Ultimately I do worry about the Double Faults and whether Giorgi will be able to hold her game together for a couple of sets to earn the upset. Instead I think one set will be quite competitive but I would fear for Giorgi if she falls behind after giving a big effort and from there I would look for Serena Williams to take over the match.

The Williams serve should keep Giorgi at bay for long enough to cover a big number while I do think any gifts will be accepted without any issues by the American. Giorgi has done very well to reach the Quarter Final which makes her dangerous, but Serena Williams has been a comfortable winner in her matches without always looking at her best and the aura around the former World Number 1 is still helping overcome opponents.

I don't think Giorgi will be scared to take on Williams at Wimbledon, but ultimately I think it is the inconsistency which costs the former in this one.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 37-36, - 1.52 Units (146 Units Staked, - 1.04% Yield)

Monday, 10 July 2017

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2017 (July 10th)

The biggest difference between Wimbledon and the rest of the Grand Slams on the Tennis Tour is clearly 'Middle Sunday' which has been left as a 'rest day' traditionally.

It also means the best day on the Tennis calendar is played on Monday when the entire Fourth Round of Wimbledon is played which means we have sixteen top matches on the same day. That is great for those at the grounds with big time matches going on around the various courts and the improvement in television coverage means the fans at home get to enjoy a number of quality matches going on at the same time.

Having cameras on all the courts means people at home can pick and choose the matches with some of the more competitive ones being played away from the show courts.

It is a great day having attended the last two years in a row and one I would highly recommend for tennis fans everywhere.


The first week of the Grand Slam is in the books and it is good news that all of my outright picks have managed to negotiate the first three Rounds at Wimbledon. This is when the challenges get much greater though and I just have to hope that those I have picked are ready to peak in the second week.

With the players remaining in the Fourth Round, Wimbledon has every chance of ending on a high with some huge matches potentially in front of us.

The weather has certainly been pretty incredible over the first week, but Monday and early in the second week it looks like it could be wetter. Hopefully the forecast has got that wrong and we can get through the Fourth Round on Monday in what looks a great day of tennis.


While the French Open Picks proved to be a big one for the season totals, the first week at Wimbledon has been a little up and down and I have been a touch unfortunate at times. Players losing deciding sets or seeing opponents retire when in a really strong position has been the reason I am slightly down on where I would have wanted to be.

Hopefully I will begin the second week with a lot more positive results and get this tournament back on track.


Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This is perhaps not the Fourth Round match that most would have expected, but Roberto Bautista Agut was able to upset Kei Nishikori on Friday to earn his place in the second week at Wimbledon again. It was a surprise to see the Spaniard play the big points as well as he did considering his poor record against top ten opponents, but now Bautista Agut has to face another one.

While there are some questions for Nishikori on the grass which perhaps showed up in his loss in the Third Round, Marin Cilic is someone who has shown he loves playing on the grass. The return games that Cilic has played in the last week highlights a real danger in the draw and I am not at all surprised he is the fifth favourite to win the title behind the 'Big Four' although none of those players will take a win over the Croatian for granted.

Playing as a top ten player has clearly given Cilic confidence in the Grand Slam events and he has a strong 22-3 record in Grand Slam matches when ranked amongst the best and facing those players outside of the top ten. That records become 7-0 at Wimbledon having won his three matches this week and the fact Cilic has won at least at least 42% of return points in each of those wins shows a dangerous player for Bautista Agut to face.

The Cilic serve has been a very big weapon for him, although he will want to avoid continuing to give up the gift break of serve as he has done in the last two matches. This is arguably the best returner Cilic has faced, but Bautista Agut does struggle when facing the best players, while his own serve is one that can be attacked by someone as aggressive and confident as Cilic seems to be.

Bautista Agut does not have great numbers when facing up to top ten Ranked opponents in the Grand Slams and I think he will have a much greater test than when he faced Nishikori. He has beaten Marin Cilic at the Australian Open in 2016 which will give him confidence, but Cilic is a much tougher proposition on the grass and I think he will prove to be a solid 6-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 kind of winner in this one.


Sam Querrey-Kevin Anderson over 44.5 games: The layers are finding it hard to separate these two players who could be in line to face home favourite Andy Murray in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon. This time last year, Sam Querrey would have been coming in off a win over Novak Djokovic and he did go on to reach the Quarter Final, but the American is going to be facing another big server in Kevin Anderson who had a 2-0 lead in sets against Djokovic here a couple of years ago in a Fourth Round loss.

Both players have a chance to reach just their second Grand Slam Quarter Final and that should mean there is some tension in the air. Of course it is much easier to deal with that by laying down a huge serve and I think breaks of serve will be at a premium when they play on Monday.

With the heat in London, both Querrey and Anderson should be able to punish the other with the serves producing cheap points. Both have strong numbers behind serve through the first week with Kevin Anderson's numbers being particularly impressive having lost just under 19% of points behind his serve.

Querrey hasn't been returning badly, but he is someone who will be heavily reliant on his own serve too and this feels like it could be a long match. Overall I am giving the edge to the underdog Querrey who might just be the slightly superior grass court player, but Anderson is not going to give this one up easily.

I would be surprised if either player is able to win this one in straight sets with the way the other has been playing over the first week at Wimbledon. The layers aren't giving much away there, but I do think this is match will surpass the total games number if it does go into a fourth set.

With the serving numbers both have produced and the relatively limited returning stats, I can't see too many breaks of serve. A couple of tie-breakers could take a chunk out of the numbers and this match going into a fourth set should see this number surpassed with a chance of an even longer outing that goes deep into the fifth set not being ruled out.


Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Benoit Paire: The Third Round win over Fabio Fognini was a solid one for Andy Murray and it is the kind of match that will give the World Number 1 some confidence to take into the second week. Having the weekend off will be good for Murray to just get some rest into what was considered to be a troubling hip prior to the tournament, while the draw does look like it has opened up for the defending Champion.

Some will say the talent of Benoit Paire is another step up in class for Murray to deal with, especially with the three solid wins the Frenchman has had this week. However he is someone who has struggled on the grass courts throughout his career and playing the elite players on the Tour has been a tough task for him too.

Where Paire could be a threat is the way he has been returning over the last month on the grass, far better than he has in his career having show clear disdain for the surface. The last two matches have been against some decent servers too so Paire has to be respected, although the fact he is 3-14 in matches against top five players has to be a concern.

There have been good signs from Murray in his own returning games and I am not sure Paire is serving as well as the raw numbers considering his last two opponents returning issues. That is highlighted by more difficulties in the First Round and Paire is someone who will look to use the drop shot and other dubious shot selections which won't get it done against the top players on the Tour.

Losing heart could be a real problem for Paire in this one and I think that may be the reason Murray is able to pull away and cover in this one. Murray has an impressive 41-0 record against opponents Ranked outside the top 20 at Wimbledon and he is able to find the effective returning which can see him crack those players both emotionally and on the scoreboard.

In this one I am looking for Murray to ease to a 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 kind of win to move through to yet another Wimbledon Quarter Final.


Tomas Berdych v Dominic Thiem: This is one of those Fourth Round matches where you are likely to hear an almost 50-50 split in which of the players people will be backing to progress. The layers are no different with this match being set as a pick 'em in a number of places and I can understand the argument for both.

This might not be Dominic Thiem's favourite surface as he continues to learn about the timing of the ball, but I do think the hot weather has helped. Now the courts have been playing more like a hard court, Thiem becomes more dangerous, but he will still need to show improvement in his return game, especially converting break points when they come his way.

He can't expect to have the host of chances like Thiem managed to create against Vasek Pospisil and Gilles Simon because Tomas Berdych has been serving at a very high level this past week. While the serve has not been unbreakable, the numbers have very much favoured him and I am not surprised he has made his way through the draw in the fashion he has.

This isn't the Berdych of old though with his own return numbers not as strong as he would like, while the Czech player is a player with a losing record against top ten Ranked players at Wimbledon. However he will feel his serve will give him every chance to keep Thiem under pressure in this one as Jiri Vesely did when beating the Austrian last year at Wimbledon.

Berdych's return game is a worry, but I think he still has enough to win a match like this on this surface. His best days may be behind him and there is a decline in the performances that is evident to most, but Thiem has yet to conquer the grass and he hasn't played too many of the big names on this surface.

The Austrian is just 4-3 when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface which becomes 1-1 when playing the top 20. The win did come against Roger Federer in Stuttgart last year, but I think Thiem is still not comfortable enough to beat someone like Berdych over a best of five sets on the grass courts of SW19.


Milos Raonic - 1.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I am a fan of Alexander Zverev and you can see the improvements he is making in his game on a week by week basis. In my mind there is little doubt that this is a future Grand Slam Winner, but the future is unlikely to begin at Wimbledon this week.

As well as Zverev is playing in 2017, this is the first time he will be playing in a Grand Slam going into the second week of the tournament. That inexperience could be a factor in this match, while the other factor has to be the losing record the young German has against the top ten players in the World Rankings over the last eighteen months.

In Rome there were clear sings that Zverev is getting used to playing and beating the biggest names on the Tour, but doing that over a best of five set match is still the next step needed in his development. Zverev is 0-3 against top ten players at the Grand Slams and he has just had some issues in both the serve and return department that he has not shown against players in general tournaments.

Now facing Raonic is a big challenge considering the Canadian is a former Semi Finalist and Finalist at Wimbledon. The Raonic return game has been working pretty well at Wimbledon so far, although he will be the first to admit that he has to be a little more clinical when the break points come.

They won't come easy in this one against the Zverev serve, but I do think the German can play one or two really poor service games which may prove to be very costly in this one. I think Raonic will just have the edge at the key moments of a fascinating match and he might just have enough veteran know-how to manage his way through in four sets.

I can see Zverev just offering up a couple of breaks of serve which may be the key factor in a 6-4, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4 win for Milos Raonic.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Gilles Muller: It won't be considered as big an upset by the oddsmakers as in 2005 when Gilles Muller was able to beat Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, but on current form the general public may not see it that way. All of the focus will be on Nadal who looks to be playing the best tennis of his impressive career, but the casual fan may not realise how well Muller has been playing on the grass.

The big serving Muller is not purely about the speed of his serve, but the placement he has been getting has been fantastic and put plenty of pressure on his opponents. The numbers have remained strong over the past week at Wimbledon, but Muller will be hoping the two day rest this weekend has been enough to refill what has to be an energy tank that has been depleted.

It will certainly be tested by Nadal in the Fourth Round with the Spaniard being in fine form when it comes to his return and that has sparked the strong tennis he has shown. You can't ignore that this is the best server that Nadal would have faced at Wimbledon, but the Spaniard was impressive against Karen Khachanov and will believe that he can get the better of the rallies if he is able to make enough returns.

Playing a left hander at a Grand Slam won't bother Nadal who has gone 25-1 against them in the Slams since his loss to Muller at Wimbledon in 2005. That includes beating Muller twice including once at Wimbledon, and he has not dropped a set in either of those wins against the veteran.

Muller has lost his last four matches against left handers in the Grand Slams and this feels like a match in which he will be worn down by the clear quality Nadal has been playing with. While I do think Muller can run through some games simply with the way he can serve, I do think Nadal is going to pick up a read on the serve at some point and start to pile up the pressure on his opponent.

The Spaniard has been starting matches very quickly but he may have to wait a little longer as he breaks down Muller 7-6, 6-4, 6-2.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: Playing back to back five set matches in a Grand Slam is a tough ask for any player, but a daunting one for a player who is facing Novak Djokovic in his next match. If the match had been on Friday for Adrian Mannarino, maybe he would have had enough time to recover physically, but this is the normal rest time between matches at a Slam for the Frenchman.

This is a surface on which Mannarino would feel he can give Djokovic problems as he did when they played in the First Round at Wimbledon in 2016. However the accumulated fatigue is likely to be an issue at some point and Djokovic has played well through the first week of the tournament to suggest he is on the right road back after what has been a torrid twelve months relative to the standards he has set for himself.

Djokovic has been returning as well as at any point in 2017 although his supporters will know there are going to be some big challenges ahead for him in the second week at Wimbledon. He played well when winning the title in Eastbourne and Djokovic's numbers have been even better in his two completed matches at Wimbledon.

He has also been serving very well which is going to make it tough for Mannarino to find the physical energy and the emotional intensity to stay with the former World Number 1. It is Djokovic who has won six in a row against left-handed players at Wimbledon and he has produced some really good numbers in those matches, while he has won ten in a row against left-handers in Grand Slam tournaments.

At some point the time spent on court is going to catch up with Mannarino and I can see him being worn down by Djokovic in this one. Perhaps the rain can come and give the Frenchman more time to recover from the exertions of the last two Rounds, but I still think Djokovic will work his way through to a 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 win as he shows he is rounding into form going into the business end of the tournament.


Roger Federer - 5.5 games v Grigor Dimitrov: The television companies and those on Centre Court will be very pleased with the match up they will have in the Fourth Round as Roger Federer takes on Grigor Dimitrov. While there will be hope for a really competitive match, I think Dimitrov has to really produce some of his best tennis to have a chance against Roger Federer who has eased through the first week.

Give the Bulgarian some credit though, he has been playing spectacularly through the first week at Wimbledon. A former Semi Finalist makes Dimitrov a threat, but his numbers have looked strong against overmatched opponents and that has not been the case when having to step up to take on the best on the Tour.

The numbers Dimitrov has produced in his three matches this week have been similar to his career numbers when facing the lower Ranked players on the grass. Dimitrov is 1-1 against top five players on the grass of Wimbledon, but that was in 2014 when surprising Andy Murray before being beaten by Novak Djokovic, while Dimitrov is now 1-5 against top five Ranked players at the Grand Slams.

Dimitrov just simply doesn't return as well as he would like against the top players when he does run into them at the Grand Slams. That has contributed to his overall 9-26 record when facing the top five players on the Tour and he may have some difficulty in getting after the Roger Federer serve consistently enough to be able to shock the favourite.

It is Federer who has won all five previous matches against Dimitrov which includes a four set win over him at the Australian Open where he would have covered this number. The Federer serve has been very strong this week in his two wins and that has allowed him to take a few swings at the return and get into a position to break opponents and come through fairly comfortably.

Federer does tend to handle those who are outside of the top ten in the Rankings when facing them at Wimbledon and he does return well against those players. I think he will be able to get into the Dimitrov service games at key times in the sets which should see Federer come through with a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win.


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: In their careers, Agnieszka Radwanksa has been more comfortable on the grass courts than Svetlana Kuznetsova and their overall body language will tell you that. It is the tournament in which Kuznetsova has had her fewest Grand Slam wins and Radwanska has had her most, but this might be the right time for the Russian to make another Quarter Final in SW19.

This week the two players have progressed through the draw in contrasting fashion and the Kuznetsova performances have been so strong that it feels like should be able to get the better of Radwanska. The returning numbers have been very strong from the Russian who has been serving pretty well too.

In contrast it has been a battle for Radwanska to come through the last couple of Rounds where she has had to come through a third set decider to progress. She has managed to ease through the decider to be fair to her, but Radwanska has to feel the amount of tennis she has had to play and her serve is one that Kuznetsova should be able to attack with confidence.

These two players are 1-1 when they have met on the grass and you have to take note of the fact that Kuznetsova has never beaten a top ten player on the grass in six previous attempts. However those have come when Kuznetsova has really struggled with her return but I am not sure Radwanska is playing well enough on her serve to keep the Russian at bay in this one.

The declining numbers of Radwanska in 2017 should come home to roost in this one and I think Kuznetsova is able to come through with a 7-5, 6-4 win.


Elina Svitolina v Jelena Ostapenko: There is much to admire about the French Open Champion Jelena Ostapenko, but backing that success up with a win at Wimbledon would arguably be an even bigger surprise than her win in Paris. This is one of the more difficult doubles to pull off in Tennis in either the men's or women's game, but Ostapenko has come through a couple of sticky moments to reach the Fourth Round.

No one can doubt her ability to play on the grass considering Ostapenko is a former Junior Champion at Wimbledon. She is playing with confidence and abandon and that makes Ostapenko very dangerous for any opponent she has left to play at this tournament.

The match with Elina Svitolina is one that Ostapenko will believe she can win simply because the former hasn't shown a lot of positive form on the grass courts in her career. The run to the Fourth Round might have changed Svitolina's feeling on the grass though as she has produced three very strong performances and her more steady game might be enough to weather the storm against her opponent on Monday.

Svitolina has been serving effectively, but the key to her wins has been the aggressive returning which has put her in a position to reach her second Grand Slam Quarter Final in a row. This is already the best performance Svitolina has produced at Wimbledon and I think the numbers means she has every chance of winning a close one against Ostapenko.

As well as Ostapenko has returned, her serve can be attacked and that is where Svitolina's returning could be a deciding factor. I can see Ostapenko earning her break points, but Svitolina can serve well enough to put Ostapenko in a difficult position in rallies which can see Svitolina come through in a tight match.


Venus Williams - 3.5 games v Ana Konjuh: It has been a good week for Venus Williams in that she has made the second week at Wimbledon yet again and it looks like a fatal car crash that she was involved in will not be blamed on her. While she may still feel the pain of being involved in an incident like that, the fact the police look to be moving away from blaming her thanks footage released has to be a huge weight off of the shoulders of the American.

She will be looking for another Quarter Final at a tournament Venus has been playing in since before Ana Konjuh was even born. That is an amazing testimony to how long Venus Williams has been able to stay at the top of her game and her performances this week suggest she can go deeper into the tournament.

I do think Venus will want to make life easier for herself by returning better earlier in matches which has been the only negative about her wins so far. Overall she has been the dominant player with the serve being very effective and her returning numbers solid enough, although this will be a test for her.

There is a lot of talent in the Ana Konjuh racquet and the question is whether she can cope with the occasion having only once made it through to the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam event. That did come last year at the US Open and Konjuh was an eventual Quarter Finalist there, but I think there is a gap to bridge here with her own service numbers not as strong as what Venus Williams has been able to produce.

The strong returning has helped Konjuh come through her matches with the last two needing a deciding set to get the job done. That could mean there is a touch of fatigue with emotional and physical tanks lacking a little bit of energy Konjuh may have had. If she continues to just have a few issues on the serve, Venus Williams should be able to take advantage and I will look for her to cover in a 6-4, 6-4 win.


Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Caroline Garcia: The bookmakers have installed Johanna Konta as the favourite to win Wimbledon in the light of both Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova exiting the tournament before the Third Round. While some players could have been affected by that, Konta showed she can put that to the back of the mind after dominating her Third Round match.

This is a bigger test for Konta against Caroline Garcia who was playing wonderfully in Paris at the last Grand Slam. She has backed that up with some solid wins in her first three matches here, but I think there are a couple of areas where she has struggled that could be highlighted in this match.

Both Konta and Garcia are very reliant on the serve with both producing solid numbers behind that shot. However it is the British player who has shown a little more consistency when it comes to the return game and I think that proves to be the key factor in deciding who moves on to the Quarter Final.

To be fair to Garcia, she hasn't returned badly this week, but her opponents have not been of the quality of Konta. Her returning numbers when facing players Ranked in the top ten have not been that good and that is the reason she has lost ten of her last eleven matches in that situation.

Garcia is just 1-4 against top 20 Ranked players on the grass courts and you can see her serve is one that those players have found a way to attack. It has been all the tougher for the Frenchwoman to retrieve the breaks on this surface and I think Konta is able to come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win if she can control the nerves of going into the second week of Wimbledon as the favourite.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Sam Querrey-Kevin Anderson Over 44.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 33-37-5, - 5.86 Units (135 Units Staked, - 4.34% Yield)