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Showing posts with label August 30th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 30th. Show all posts

Saturday, 30 August 2025

US Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 30th August)

It has not been a good day for American tennis, at least on the men's side of the tournament, with the likes of Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe exiting the US Open before the second week is set to begin.

The Third Round at the final Grand Slam of the season is scheduled to be concluded on Saturday and there are some potentially big matches coming up.

As the tournament progresses and with the majority of the top names still going strong at the event, the matches that will matter most to the fans should be taking place more frequently. There are one or two portions of the draw that have begun to look wide open for a surprise name to have a very big impact at this Grand Slam, but the top contenders are still flying and it is hard to look past someone familiar picking up both Singles titles.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Some very late drama was attached to the win over Jacob Fearnley when the underdog decided to produce tennis of a ridiculous level, but Alexander Zverev was never in any danger of being pushed too much further.

The 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win has continued comfortable passage through the US Open draw and it is clear that Alexander Zverev is pretty happy for most people to talk about the 'big two'.

The World Number 3 is a former Finalist here and has done the same in Melbourne and Paris and so Alexander Zverev has to be confident in his ability to beat anyone and everyone he faces.

Next up is a match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who has yet to drop a set at the US Open and who has been playing some of his best hard court tennis of recent years over the course of the season. However, the Canadian did blow a two set lead in being dumped out of the Second Round at the Australian Open, while Auger-Aliassime has lost his last four hard court matches when facing a top 20 Ranked opponent.

Felix Auger-Aliassime certainly serves well enough to offer some resistance and he has had competitive matches when facing the best players, at least in the main. He was crushed by Jannik Sinner at the Cincinnati Masters, but that feels like an exception to the rule so Alexander Zverev will have to be very focused in what looks a quality match.

The German has been much more solid in the bigger matches compared with Felix Auger-Aliassime, while Alexander Zverev will hold the mental advantage.

The sole Grand Slam match between these players was won by Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon in 2021, but Alexander Zverev has won three of the four matches played against one another since then.

He has also won four of the five hard court matches, including a crushing win at the Miami Masters in 2024.

This should be more competitive than that match, but it is Alexander Zverev who looks more capable of coming out on top at key moments and the expectation is that he will progress in either three or, more likely, four sets.


Alex De Minuar - 7.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: After going 2-1 down in sets and losing serve very early in the fourth set, Daniel Altmaier could have easily begun to think about his exit plans from New York City.

Instead he battled back to win that set and then came through a really tough fifth set to upset Stefanos Tsitsipas and earn himself another match at the US Open.

He is also playing in the Doubles in this final Grand Slam of 2025, but the real challenge for Daniel Altmaier is going to be recovery. For the second match in a row, he has spent well over four hours on the court and that is going to accumulate within the body.

Making matters worse is the opponent.

Alex De Minaur has the movement and the defensive skills to really punish any fatigue that Daniel Altmaier is going to be feeling and this is going to make those hours spent on the court hurt for the underdog.

The World Number 8 won the title in Washington in the build up to this Grand Slam and he has been very comfortable through the first couple of Rounds.

Over the course of the season, Alex De Minaur has shown improvement in both service and returning numbers on the hard courts and he did reach the Quarter Final in his home Grand Slam before running into Jannik Sinner. The very top players look like they will have too many weapons for the top Australian player, but Alex De Minaur is very comfortable when facing opponents he is expected to beat as highlighted by the 24-4 record against players Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface in 2025.

One of those victories was against Daniel Altmaier on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam back in February and it was a strong win for the favourite.

Alex De Minaur dropped just five games in getting past this opponent on that day and you have to believe he can pull away from Daniel Altmaier in the second and third set once tiredness and the scoreboard really turn against the World Number 56.


Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Coleman Wong: The last twelve to eighteen months have been quite difficult for Andrey Rublev as he looks to avoid wasting unnecessary energy on the courts.

Most of that was through open frustration and he has admitted that it had been holding him back.

Consistency had seen Andrey Rublev reach six of seven Grand Slam Quarter Finals between May 2022 and January 2024, but he has now failed to progress beyond the Fourth Round in six straight Majors. With that in mind, the Quarter Final runs in Toronto and Cincinnati will have given the World Number 15 some confidence and he has looked pretty solid in the tournament so far.

The draw has opened up a little bit and Andrey Rublev next faces Coleman Wong who is the World Number 173.

Credit has to be given to Coleman Wong for coming through the Qualifiers and then upsetting Aleksander Kovacevic and Adam Walton. He has played a lot of tennis over the last week, but winning will have given him a lift, although Wong will be well aware that this is a big leap in level compared with the opponents he has beaten in the run to the Third Round.

The Coleman Wong serve could be a key weapon for him, but he has struggled when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents faced on the hard courts.

Focus will be key for Andrey Rublev.

If he can just not allow himself to become overly frustrated, Andrey Rublev should have the majority of Break Point chances in this match and it could lead to a routine win.

This has sometimes been Andrey Rublev's downfall, but he has looked better all around over the last month on the North American hard courts. He should have enough quality on the court to eventually break down and wear down this opponent and reach the Fourth Round for the sixth time in nine main draw appearances in New York City.


Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This has been a really productive month of tennis for Naomi Osaka and she is a very dangerous player in the women's draw at the US Open.

A two time former Champion here, Naomi Osaka's game is perfectly suited to the hard courts.

However, her return to the Tour has perhaps not been as smooth as hoped because Naomi Osaka has sometimes struggled to deal with expectation that will have been heaped on her shoulders. Everyone knows the level that Osaka can produce and the pressure has been on to reach that once again, which has perhaps contributed to some of the inconsistent results.

Things look a bit different right now and Naomi Osaka's confidence looks in a good place.

She will tested by Daria Kasatkina who has been a solid hard court player this season, but one who has struggled to get over the line in recent matches.

Two wins in New York City will have given her some confidence and Daria Kasatkina reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open so is clearly happy playing on the hard courts.

However, this is a match that feels like it will be played on the Naomi Osaka racquet- if she serves well, Osaka should find plenty of short runs to attack, while the heavier groundstrokes could see her push Daria Kasatkina onto the back foot.

In their two previous meetings on the Tour, Naomi Osaka has dominated the outcome and that includes on the clay courts in Rome 2024. That may be a surface on which Daria Kasatkina would have felt she could compete best with this powerful opponent, but that was not the case and her own serve has vulnerabilities that Naomi Osaka can exploit in this Third Round match.


Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Magdalena Frech: The first couple of wins at the US Open have not been as straight-forward as Coco Gauff would have hoped and she was in an emotional mood in the Second Round.

The former Champion in New York City, Coco Gaiff perhaps feels more pressure to impress the home fans and that was perhaps part of the reason she was feeling how she was the last time out.

She has faced a couple of awkward opponents, but Coco Gauff has to be more comfortable facing Magdalena Frech considering the two victories and manner of those against this opponent.

The World Number 33 had lost three hard court matches in a row before the two victories at the US Open, but Magdalena Frech has played really well here. The two wins have to give her confidence, although it should be stated that the draw has been a decent one for the Seeded player and this is a considerably tougher test.

Magdalena Frech will be hoping that Coco Gauff has something of an off day, but the reality is that the American is the better player and should be much more comfortable on this surface.

The match up has been one that Coco Gauff has enjoyed previously and it should mean this is one of the more routine wins in the Third Round.


Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Beating one American player may have upset the home crowd, but Jaqueline Cristian was doing the same in the Second Round.

Now she takes aim at a third American player in a row, although Cristian will be very much aware that Amanda Anisimova is the best of the three home hopes that she will have faced in the US Open.

The run to the Third Round has been a little surprising when you think Jaqueline Cristian had lost three hard court matches in a row, including early defeats in Cincinnati and Monterrey. All three of those defeats were in routine fashion and it could be a difficult challenge containing someone like Amanda Anisimova who is very keen to build on reaching the Wimbledon Final.

The defeat in the Final would have stung, but Amanda Anisimova is very confident on the hard courts and has looked good in the first two Rounds in New York City.

In matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, Cristian has really struggled to have much of an impact.

Amanda Anisimova has not been a dominant player, even if she has racked up the wins to move into the top 10 of the World Rankings.

There is definitely some room for improvement in the hard court numbers, although the confidence looks to be flowing through the American right now. She has picked up two very solid wins at Flushing Meadows and Amanda Anisimova has all of the qualities to secure another one, while doing just enough to cover the line that has been set for the match.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 15-9, + 6.44 Units (47 Units Staked, + 13.70% Yield)

Friday, 30 August 2024

US Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2024 (Friday 30th August)

The Third Round at the US Open is scheduled to get underway on Day 5 of the tournament and the intensity of the matches should begin to build.

There are some very good looking matches set to take to the courts and it looks to be the busiest day for the Tennis Picks so far this week. It means Day 5 is an important one to try and set this tournament on a positive path to a winning event for the selections being made.


Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Juncheng Shang: A withdrawal in Canada and an early loss in Cincinnati meant Casper Ruud arrived in New York City as a vulnerable Seed. He is a former US Open Finalist, so clearly is very capable of playing on the hard courts in front of a vociferous crowd, but there were some doubts with the build up for the tournament being far from ideal.

Wins in the first two Rounds will have given him confidence, and he looked to be in pretty good nick in the Second Round when beating veteran Gael Monfils. He was out on the court for just shy of three hours, although not in the heat of the day when conditions in New York City have proved to be tough for many other players performing.

Conditions should be better for tennis when this Third Round match is played, but it is likely to be humid and we are moving into that time of the Grand Slam when matches become that much more difficult.

Now you are facing opponents who have also won a couple of matches in the main draw and Juncheng Shang has already eliminated one Seed in his run to the Third Round. The five set win over Alexander Bublik was backed up perfectly with a routine win in the Second Round, and Shang has shown he has an ability that is perhaps much higher than his World Ranking would suggest by putting a 9-5 record on the board against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.

The layers are not underestimating the capabilities of the World Number 72, especially as Juncheng Shang reached the Semi Final in Atlanta in the hard court tournaments used to build towards the US Open. The 19 year old also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open before finding Carlos Alcaraz too much to handle, and Shang is not going to be that worried about having to face someone like Casper Ruud.

Confidence and a left handed serve makes him dangerous, but Ruud has looked in good shape through the first couple of Rounds. He is a perfect 8-0 on the hard courts in 2024 when facing players Ranked outside the top 50, and Casper Ruud has been able to dominate behind his own serve in those matches.

Juncheng Shang is capable in his own return, but the serve is perhaps not quite as reliable as the one Casper Ruud has at this stage of their respective careers. That could prove to be key in this good looking Third Round match and it may see the former US Open Finalist push through for a solid win as he progresses through to the second week here again.


Ben Shelton - 1.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Twelve months ago, Ben Shelton arrived at the US Open knowing he had already made a big impact on the Tour when he reached the Australian Open Quarter Final.

Not many would have picked the young American to surpass that, but he did by reaching the US Open Semi Final where his run was ended by eventual Champion Novak Djokovic.

However, Ben Shelton had upset compatriot Frances Tiafoe on his way to the Semi Final with a four set win in the Quarter Final and this time around Shelton will be playing in New York City as a Seeded player. The World Number 13 was Ranked down at Number 47 last year, although it does mean Shelton is playing under the pressure of having to defend a Semi Final run.

He doesn't really strike anyone as a player who will worry about external pressure though and Ben Shelton will have big ambitions for himself. Solid results through the course of the season have pushed him close to the top ten in the World Rankings, while he had plenty of wins in hard court matches while preparing for the US Open.

Wins over veterans Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut without dropping a set will have given Ben Shelton some real confidence, but this is a significant step up in terms of class of opponent.

Frances Tiafoe has admitted that it has been a tough twelve months for himself, but he reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters in the lead to the US Open. It was a run that came out of left field considering the form Tiafoe has produced over the course of the year, and his wins in the main draw will have furthered his belief.

As the World Number 20 would say himself, Frances Tiafoe has suffered a lot of tough losses, but this is a player that is more than capable of the 'upset'. In the last two years, Tiafoe has reached the Semi Final and the Quarter Final at his home Grand Slam and there is little doubt that he will be hugely motivated when playing in front of these fans.

We do know that Ben Shelton is perhaps not the strongest return player on the Tour, but he is a player with a monster serve and that makes him dangerous at all times. He looks especially dangerous against someone like Frances Tiafoe, who has struggled with his return through the course of the season, although both players were able to break serve a number of times when they played in the Quarter Final here last year.

There will be some swings in momentum through the course of this big time Third Round match, but the Ben Shelton serve can come through at key moments. It will put pressure on Frances Tiafoe, who has a 4-4 record when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

However, that would have read 1-3 before his run to the Cincinnati Final and Ben Shelton may just prove to have the right shots at the right time to pull clear of his compatriot again.


Alexei Popyrin + 7.5 games v Novak Djokovic: This is the third Grand Slam in 2024 where Alexei Popyrin will be forced to face Novak Djokovic and it is the former World Number 1 who has won the previous meetings at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Credit has to be given to Popyrin for winning a set each time and remaining competitive in those defeats, but winning the biggest title of his career in Canada earlier this month should mean he is playing with higher ambitions than merely being competitive.

This is a tough match up for Alexei Popyrin- his aggressive style behind a big serve has been working well enough to take him into the top 30 of the World Rankings for the first time, but it is tough to be able to do that against a defensive master like Novak Djokovic. You can for a set, but to do so for three or four hours is where it becomes very challenging and that has been clear in his two Grand Slam defeats against the Serb.

Alexei Popyrin has overcome some tough numbers to keep things close- he saved 8/11 Break Points faced in Melbourne and 6/8 Break Points faced in London and those numbers will have to be repeated in this one.

Ultimately he has also not been able to get into the Novak Djokovic service games as effectively as he would like and Popyrin has managed just three breaks in the two Grand Slam matches played.

Novak Djokovic admitted he was not serving at his best in the Second Round win over his compatriot Laslo Djere, but he was still comfortable enough and looks very focused on attempting to win a maiden Grand Slam title in 2024. The Gold Medal earned in Paris has bolstered the confidence and Djokovic remains one of the top players in the world on this surface.

The feeling is that Novak Djokovic will accept those hot streaks that Alexei Popyrin has been able to produce and by looking after his own serve, the Number 2 Seed will feel his opportunities will come.

Most of the pressure will still be on Alexei Popyrin to find a way to at least give Djokovic something to think about when returning. He played well on the return in winning the Canadian Masters, but Popyrin was beaten early in Cincinnati and the New York City heat may have subsided a little, which may mean his own serve is impacted a little more.

However, in saying all that, Alexei Popyrin has shown he can produce the tennis needed to challenge Novak Djokovic and this time he will be playing as a Masters Champion. That confidence cannot be understated and Popyrin may be able to make use of the games that are being given to him in this Third Round match.


Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Yafan Wang: A severe migraine looked like it could be very difficult to overcome, but Victoria Azarenka showed off her veteran experience in earning a spot in the US Open Third Round.

A former two time Australian Open Champion and three time US Open Finalist, Victoria Azarenka has seen her best tennis days. The numbers have remained impressive, but the Belarusian former World Number 1 lacks the consistency that saw her reach the top of the WTA Tour.

Even reaching the second week of a Grand Slam has become a challenge for Victoria Azarenka, but she did manage that at the Australian Open earlier this year. This is a player that is comfortable on the hard courts and Azarenka will be pleased with the draw having beaten Yafan Wang in the preparation events for the final Grand Slam of the season.

Over the last several weeks, Yafan Wang has had some mixed results on the hard courts, but she was able to take advantage of Maria Sakkari's injury issues in the First Round in New York City. She had won just two of the eight matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to that win over Sakkari and it may be tough to close the gap between the two players.

There were a couple of concerns about Victoria Azarenka heading into the tournament considering the last time she had played had ended prematurely in Toronto. Her performances in the first two Rounds should have the player and her fans feeling better and she can frank the victory she had over Yafan Wang in Washington during the hard court tournaments building up to this Grand Slam.

Serving more efficiently will help make things easier, but this is likely going to be a match in which a number of breaks of serve are shared out. Ultimately you have to believe Victoria Azarenka can get the better of the opportunities and she can produce a solid Third Round win.


Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: There is little doubt that the continued war between Russia and Ukraine remains on the forefront of many minds, but it is so much harder for athletes from Ukraine. Many of the tennis players have made it clear how much they support their compatriots and it does mean fans are going to be behind them.

The biggest name may be Elina Svitolina and she has received massive support since returning to the Tour.

Her heart is worn on her sleeve and the fans have responded, but it will be tough to win the support from the stands when facing Coco Gauff, the American defending Champion. Form prior to the tournament has been erratic, but Gauff is going to feel very comfortable in New York City and on the courts where her maiden Grand Slam title has been won.

Coco Gauff began the season very well on the hard courts and also reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open, but she has suffered early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati. This perhaps meant Gauff was coming into the tournament as a vulnerable higher Seed, but she has looked more comfortable in this setting and this is a match up that should not be one that concerns her too much.

Of course there will be a respect for Elina Svitolina, but Coco Gauff has to believe her serve is the more effective of the two players and that can give her the edge in the match. It was the case in their most recent match in Auckland earlier this year as the higher Ranked player was able to exert her control, even in a match that ended up going the distance.

The previous match between the two was at the Australian Open back in 2021 when the Rankings were switched.

On that occasion Elina Svitolina won the match, but it was a close, competitive affair and Coco Gauff is a much improved player now. The return is likely going to put Elina Svitolina under pressure over the course of this Third Round match and it may be one that Gauff ends up winning with some relative comfort.

MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexei Popyrin + 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emma Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 10-8, + 1.08 Units (36 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)

Wednesday, 30 August 2023

US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (August 30th)

The first two days at the US Open has seen a number of upsets and the crowd once again playing their part in getting on top of players when they feel they have someone rattled.

Even then, it is sad to see veterans like Laura Siegemund feel like they are not being respected as they should be by the fans arriving to watch the tennis and it is little surprise that so many players do not enjoy this atmosphere compared to much more serene events throughout the course of the year.

Personally the US Open has been a Slam I have really enjoyed and two previous visits to the ground have been enjoyable.

Sometimes it might pay to take the Daniil Medvedev approach to the crowd, but it can be difficult for those with different personalities.


Moving into the Second Round on Day 3 at the tournament should mean players are a little more accustomed to the conditions and the atmosphere that will have to be dealt with.

Some top names will be out on the courts on Wednesday and it is also a day when there are a lot more selections compared with the first couple of days of the tournament.


Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 sets v Borna Gojo: On paper it may have felt like a significant upset, but there were plenty of people who called for Mackenzie McDonald to upset the out of form Felix Auger-Aliassime in the First Round at the US Open. It was a result that was also expected here, but the price was plenty short considering McDonald had to withdraw during his last match in Cincinnati.

After solid runs in both Canada and Cincinnati, Mackenzie McDonald must have been a little bit frustrated that he may not have been at full health going into the US Open. While all credit has to be given to him for the four set win over Auger-Aliassime, there are still one or two questions about the McDonald overall level of fitness and the feeling is that the oddsmakers are not entirely sure either.

A competent hard court player, Mackenzie McDonald played the big points well in the First Round, although it should also be noted that he had to fend of twelve Break Points, which is a total number higher than the overall number of Break Points the American created on the day.

The serve can be vulnerable at times, but McDonald does have an 11-2 record on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 50, while he has won 65% of points played behind serve and held onto almost 85% of service games played in those thirteen matches.

It will give the home fans some confidence that this American player can make it through to the US Open Third Round, although Borna Gojo will need to be respected having worked his way through the Qualifiers. Much like Mackenzie McDonald, Borna Gojo will have been pleased with the way the early draw has shaped up for him and he has not had to beat any opponent Ranked higher than World Number 121 in his four wins in New York City.

Winning does give players momentum though and the Croatian has a serve that can help out of difficult situations, which is always a boost. However, Borna Gojo has not cracked the top 100 in his career and this should be a much tougher test than he has faced so far at the US Open, as long as Mackenzie McDonald is good to go.

Borna Gojo has yet to really get to grips with facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career and that is largely down to poor return numbers. His serve may see him force a tie-break or two, but Mackenzie McDonald is expected to be the stronger player on the court and is capable of winning this one in three or four sets.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Dominic Stricker: It looked like it might have been a genuinely awkward First Round draw for one of the top Seeds at the US Open when Stefanos Tsitsipas was paired with Milos Raonic, but all credit has to be given to the Greek player for making relatively easy work of things.

A straight sets win early in the Grand Slam tournaments is always welcomed by those looking for a deep run in the draw, but doing so against someone with the obvious weapons that Milos Raonic has is very good news for those who support Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The first two Grand Slams in the calendar year have tended to be where Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed most of his successes and he has shown he can perform on the hard courts having reached the Semi Final three times at the Australian Open before finishing Runner Up earlier this year. However, Tsitsipas has never reached the second week at the US Open and had been upset in the First Round last year, which makes the win on Monday that much more impressive.

A rematch with Christopher Eubanks will certainly draw plenty of eyes if both the American and Stefanos Tsitsipas are able to win their Second Round matches, but it would be foolish to overlook the young opponent in front of the Seeded player here.

Dominic Stricker is 21 years old and representing Switzerland, which brings pressure considering he is following in the footsteps of players like Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka. It will be something that Stricker will have to handle, but he will have built up some confidence having come through the Qualifiers before upsetting Alexei Popyrin in the First Round.

Of course this is a different level of test for the young player, who has lost his last four matches against top 20 Ranked players since upsetting Hubert Hurkacz on the grass courts of Stuttgart. Dominic Stricker failed to take a set in Grand Slam losses to Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe at the French Open and Wimbledon respectively this year, while Stefanos Tsitsipas beat him in straight sets on his worst surface, grass, last year.

A lefty serve could cause problems and Stricker will want to get to the net to put Stefanos Tsitsipas under pressure, but the lower Ranked player has really had a hard time with the return against the elite players on the Tour. This is going to be another tough returning day in the office if Tsitsipas comes out like he can and the feeling is that the Number 7 Seed at the US Open will prove too good in this Second Round match.

While it is a spread that looks big considering the return issues that Stefanos Tsitsipas can have, the performance in the First Round against a big server is encouraging and he can cover the line set for this one.


Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 sets v Benjamin Bonzi: After losing early in a Challenger event played on the grass courts, Christopher Eubanks was Ranked at World Number 75 and admitted that he hated playing on the surface.

The best decision he made was to speak to Kim Clijsters and whatever the former Australian Open and US Open Champion said seemed to work.

Three impressive weeks saw Christopher Eubanks win the title in Mallorca before reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and his charisma and style certainly won him plenty of fans. It also helped push into the top 30 of the World Rankings and there is a different kind of pressure on the Eubanks shoulders right now as one of the more prominent American faces at his home Grand Slam.

He looks like someone who will thrive in those conditions, but it should also be noted that Christopher Eubanks is just 4-4 on the hard courts since his amazing run at Wimbledon. Each of the four losses will feel disappointing for Christopher Eubanks, but his First Round win at the US Open was much better and this looks more than a winnable Second Round contest for him.

No one will doubt the talent of Benjamin Bonzi, who has also been an effective hard court player, but he has yet to show his best form since injury earlier in the season. That caused him to miss almost the entirety of the clay court season, including his home Grand Slam at Roland Garros, and the Frenchman is just 3-8 in all matches since returning to the Tour.

Before his First Round win in New York City, Benjamin Bonzi had won a single hard court match in a Challenger event in Winnipeg and another hard court match last week in Winston Salem. However, his numbers have not been impressive on his return with Bonzi struggling for effectiveness on the return, which in turn has added to the pressure on the serve.

The First Round win over compatriot Quentin Halys saw Bonzi edge the narrow margins, but this is a significantly tougher test for him as he will likely have to deal with the home crowd as much as the opponent on the other side of the net. Christopher Eubanks used that to his advantage in beating Benjamin Bonzi in Washington last year and the former is now much more confident about his abilities on the court.

Overall his hard court numbers are not that impressive, but Christopher Eubanks has a serve that can really build scoreboard pressure on his opponent, as we saw at Wimbledon. If Benjamin Bonzi was at his healthiest and in better form, he would be a real threat, but Christopher Eubanks is expected to deal with this opponent in his current situation and he can win this match in three or four sets.


Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullin: A win over Carlos Alcaraz in one of the two Masters events played ahead of the US Open will have given Tommy Paul a real boost in confidence as he looks to surpass his best ever performance at his home Grand Slam event.

He had never played beyond the First Round before reaching the Third Round in 2022 and Tommy Paul backed up that run by reaching the Semi Final at the Australian Open in January. The two solid runs in Canada and Cincinnati underlines his development into a solid hard court player and Tommy Paul is very much in the midst of his best year on the Tour with high hopes of cracking the top 10.

The American did not play as well as he would have hoped in Paris and London in the other two Grand Slam events played this year, but Paul will have the home crowd behind him and will be keen on putting together a strong run here.

He might have hoped for a better Second Round match than facing Roman Safiullon who reached a career high World Ranking last month following a run to the Wimbledon Quarter Final. If Roman Safiullon had played a bit more tennis in the time between Wimbledon and the US Open, he may even have pushed his way into the Seeding spots at the tournament, but two losses is all that Safiullon has had to show for his efforts since London.

Roman Safiullon is capable of performing on the hard courts, but he has not really played many of the best players on the Tour on this surface. In his career, Safiullon is just 2-8 when it comes to matches against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts, including being 0-2 in 2023 and this is a big test for him in front of a crowd that will be supporting the opponent.

The struggles have been on the return of serve in those matches and it is the return where Tommy Paul is expected to have a big enough edge to win this Second Round match.

You have to respect how dangerous Roman Safiullon could potentially be at his best, but we have not seen that consistently on the hard courts.

He would have been very welcoming of the First Round draw, but Safiullon will know this is a considerable step up in class and Tommy Paul is expected to work his way through without the need for a deciding set.


Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 games v Sebastian Ofner: A relatively disappointing build towards the US Open has perhaps allowed Frances Tiafoe to fly under the radar somewhat with a number of other American players perhaps stealing the headlines.

That might not be the worst thing in the world for Frances Tiafoe who reached the Semi Final here twelve months ago and will be looking to quietly get on with his business. He was given a pretty routine First Round match and Frances Tiafoe is a considerable favourite to beat Sebastian Ofner in the Second Round on Wednesday.

On paper this does not feel like a straight-forward match against someone who had a good run at the French Open and who is very close to cracking the top 50 in the World Rankings, but suffice to say that Sebastian Ofner is not at his most comfortable on the clay courts.

The Austrian was beaten in his sole build up match for the US Open in Winston Salem and Sebastian Ofner had lost four hard court matches in a row before his First Round win. Add in the fact that Ofner is just 2-11 in his career against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and he had lost eleven matches in a row against those opponents, while dropping 22/23 sets, before his win over Nuno Borges in the First Round and you begin to realise what kind of a gap Sebastian Ofner needs to bridge in this match.

Frances Tiafoe can be guilty of sometimes playing down to the level the opponent is showing and he can be a little erratic with shot choices as he bids to entertain the crowd. That isn't too bad in most cases, but Tiafoe needs to make sure he is not spending too long on the court in the early Rounds at this Grand Slam if he is going to have a chance to go at least one step further than 2022.

A couple of disappointing losses to players Ranked outside the top 50 in the World Rankings in Canada and Cincinnati will be a concern, but prior to that Frances Tiafoe had a 13-1 record against those opponents this year on the hard courts. His numbers in the sixteen matches played against opponents outside of the top 50 have been very strong ahead of the US Open and Frances Tiafoe was a strong First Round winner over another of those.

This match is expected to be more competitive, but the home player can use the energy from the stands to work his way to a relatively comfortable place in the Third Round of the final Grand Slam of the season.

MY PICKS: Mackenzie McDonald - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Laura Davis - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 5-4, + 0.20 Units (18 Units Staked, + 1.11% Yield)

Tuesday, 30 August 2022

Premier League Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 5 2022/23 (August 30-September 1)

The intense schedule for the top clubs in the top European Leagues will really begin this week with most of those teams playing twice a week through to mid-November when the break for the World Cup will begin.

Only a September international break cools things down a touch, but for most clubs that just means their players are on the field twice a week for their country rather than for their club.

It is going to mean a lot of rotation and that will impact the Fantasy Football selections, more of which is below.


Premier League Picks GameWeek 5

This has not been a very good start to the Premier League Picks as multiple moments that can change the entire feeling of a match have seemingly gone against my selections.

Penalty misses, early sendings off, or goals being conceded within five minutes of the start of a match have hurt.

World class finishing to erase winning selections with minutes remaining have also been a part of the deal and teams have also blown two goal leads.

It stings, but you have to believe some of those moments will naturally begin to turn back around.

Crystal Palace v Brentford Pick: It has been a difficult opening to the Premier League selections as late goals and Penalty misses sting, but the quick turnaround into a full midweek set of games will hopefully see a change in fortune.

A London derby will open the ten Premier League games to be played between Tuesday and Thursday and both Crystal Palace and Brentford will be feeling a little sore after the results on Saturday.

Patrick Vieira's team had travelled to Manchester and led the Champions 0-2, but capitulated in the last 37 minutes in an eventual 4-2 defeat. It will be tough to pick up the Crystal Palace squad after that result and they will be hoping that Wilfred Zaha can return to give them a boost in the build up to this one.

Thomas Frank's team came from behind to earn a point, but the manager believed wastefulness in the final third was costly for Brentford. The woodwork was hit multiple times in the 1-1 draw with Everton and Frank will be keen to see his strikers show a touch more composure when the big chances come their way.

Brentford have been creating plenty of chances in the first month of the season, but the defensive vulnerabilities on display at the end of last season continue to be an issue for the team. They have conceded at least twice in each of their last 4 away Premier League games, but scoring goals has not been a problem and Brentford have scored at least twice in each of their last 4 on their travels in all competitions.

I do think they can pose problems for a Crystal Palace team who have yet to earn a clean sheet this season and who have looked a little unsure of themselves at the back. However, Patrick Viera's team have scored in each of their last 3 Premier League games and have looked pretty good going forward in all of their fixtures played in August.

I can't ignore the fact that both League games between these teams finished goalless last season, but the underlying numbers of the defences early in this campaign has suggested there is some vulnerability about both Brentford and Crystal Palace. The 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous against the selection, but I do think there will be at least three goals shared out between the teams on Tuesday.


Fulham v Brighton Pick: Both Marco Silva and Graham Potter have to be pleased with the Premier League performances from their respective teams in August, but there is still one more game to negotiate before moving in September.

They are heading into this fixture in slightly different form- Fulham have lost back to back away games in all competitions, while Brighton have won their last 3 in a row. However, Fulham's setbacks have been away from Craven Cottage and I do think they have been strong at home in their two Premier League games played here.

Defensively there are some questions, but Fulham have looked really good going forward and have been creating plenty of chances. Alexander Mitrovic has struggled at this level in previous years, but the Serbian striker has been in strong form to open this season including scoring the winning goal against Brentford.

In both games at Craven Cottage, Fulham have started really well and have scored the first goal which has been the key to picking up 4 points from a possible 6. However, there are some questions for a team who have conceded two goals in 4 of their 5 games played in all competitions this season and now have to face a Brighton team who finished last season in fine form.

Losing Marc Cucurella and Yves Bissouma will have hurt, but the squad have rallied behind Graham Potter and Brighton are playing with confidence. They have looked strong at both ends of the field over the first month of the season and Brighton are unbeaten in 10 in all competitions.

The away form has been particularly impressive and Brighton have won 5 of their last 7 away Premier League games. In 4 of those 7 away League games, Brighton have scored at least twice and I do think they can cause problems for Fulham as long as they can weather the expected early storm.

Both teams may hit the back of the net in this one, but I have to give the lean to Brighton with their long-term form away from home. The goals being conceded by Fulham is a concern, and Brighton have a pretty decent record at Craven Cottage in recent years which has seen them lose 1 of their last 5 visits.

Brighton have won 3 times in that stretch of games and I think on current form The Seagulls may have enough to leave West London with three more points on Tuesday evening.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Deep squads are going to be important for all Premier League clubs in the lead up to the World Cup, but it is especially the case for clubs competing in European competition who will have to become used to playing every three or four days until mid-November.

Thomas Tuchel has a couple of injuries in the squad which are making things difficult, but he will be frustrated by the sending offs that have led to suspensions. Conor Gallagher will be missing out on Tuesday, while Wesley Fofana may not be signed in time despite the fact that the transfer has moved forward.

At least Kalidou Koulibaly is back and Chelsea are coming in behind a victory over Leicester City.

However, you do have to question whether that win has sapped some of the energy in the Chelsea legs- they spent over 70 minutes playing with ten men on Saturday and a tough away game at St Mary's will present a real challenge for the visiting team.

Southampton are coming into the fixture off a home defeat and the team have struggled for performances at home going back to last season. They have lost 4 of their last 5 home Premier League games and Southampton are struggling for consistency under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

I do think Southampton showed enough on Saturday to be considered a threat and they will feel they can outwork Chelsea if there is any tiredness in the away dressing room. The Saints have created some decent openings in their fixtures played this month, but Southampton have yet to really convince defensively and I do think Chelsea are strong enough in the final third to find the goals to win this fixture.

Chelsea have won 6 of their last 7 games at St Mary's and they have scored at least twice in each of those victories. They are likely going to need to score at least two goals to win this Premier League game and I think Thomas Tuchel's men have shown they can find a way to scoring the goals to secure the victory.


Leeds United v Everton Pick: Two big clubs in English Football both flirted with relegation last season from the Premier League and Leeds United and Everton must be thinking about consolidation at this level over the next nine months.

The start made by Leeds United will have their fans believing they can achieve much more than that, but Jesse Marsch will want to keep his players focused on each match. The defeat at Brighton may be a reminder to the players and the fans that there is more work to do, but Leeds United have every chance of bouncing back in front of their own fans.

Last season was a challenging time for Leeds United at Elland Road, but they have won all three games played here this month and have scored at least twice in each victory. Jesse Marsch looks to have found a strong balance between attack and defence and that has shown up at home.

He will certainly feel his Leeds United team can do enough to beat Everton who have struggled for clean sheets and simply have not scored enough goals. Dominic Calvert-Lewin continues to be a big miss, while Neal Maupay will be making his debut having signed from Brighton knowing he has some big boots to fill.

I do think Maupay can make an impact for Everton who have been creating chances, but just lacked a finishing touch to some of the football played. However, Everton continue to look vulnerable at the back and I do think Leeds United are playing well enough to exploit that, especially at home.

Brentford should have beaten Everton on Saturday and I think this game will follow a similar path with the home team having the majority of the stronger chances. Frank Lampard's men have shown they can be pretty stubborn to beat, but Everton have not faced the toughest fixture list over the last two weeks and have still had to ride their luck at times.

The first goal will be important, but Leeds United can get that and that could lay the foundation for another three points at home.


Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: Three wins from three relatively decent fixtures did not tell us too much about Arsenal, but the character shown in coming from behind to beat Fulham will have more people taking notice. There is no doubt that Mikel Arteta and the board have put together a strong squad and one that is young enough to grow together, but the manager will be the first to admit that bigger tests are yet to be faced.

At the start of the season some may have felt Aston Villa could provide that test, but Steven Gerrard's team have been underachieving all season. There are suggestions that Gerrard is not very happy and that the players are also not on the same page as the manager and these are the kind of stories that usually prelude a change in direction at a club.

I don't think the fans will be too disappointed if Steven Gerrard does leave the club as many are complaining that the football is as turgid as you will ever get to see. Some have even pointed out that the team looks to have gone backwards since the Sacking of Dean Smith and that despite the huge investment that has been made in the last two transfer windows.

The defeats to Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and West Ham United are made all the worse when you think those teams are a combined 0-1-8 when not playing Aston Villa this season.

There is quality in the squad that has to be respected, but if the players have fallen out with the manager, it can be difficult to imagine Aston Villa causing too many problems for Arsenal. Defensively they have been struggling and could be without Tyrone Mings and Diego Carlos for this one, while Arsenal are a team who are flying at home and playing with a swagger we have not seen for a long time.

Last season Arsenal beat Aston Villa 3-1 at the Emirates Stadium and I would not be surprised if The Gunners are able to match that margin of victory if they can score the first goal this weekend. The chances being created at home and Aston Villa's poor recent away record in the Premier League suggests Arsenal are going to be on the front foot for much of the fixture and they can win well.


Bournemouth v Wolves Pick: A month ago you would have seen plenty of predictions of how the Premier League will shake up over the course of the next few months and many would have tipped up Bournemouth for an immediate return to the Championship.

Plenty of others would have suggested that Wolves could slip into trouble too, especially as they had a miserable end to the last campaign.

Bruno Lage has to be a little worried considering the early season form, but the Wolves board have backed their manager with some signings made to strengthen the team. Holding onto Ruben Neves will be a huge achievement, but Wolves are still struggling for goals and they have now failed to win any of their last 11 Premier League games.

They have created some chances, but Wolves have not defended as well as they would have liked even if it took a world class strike to secure point against them on Sunday. Newcastle United did enough to deserve that result and Wolves will be under pressure in what should be a tough away game.

Bournemouth are another who are trying to recover from a disappointing result this past weekend and the 9-0 defeat at Anfield will have embarrassed all associated with the club. Scott Parker continues to let all know that he needs more help, but Bournemouth are unlikely to have new faces involved in this one on Wednesday.

The Cherries have beaten Aston Villa at home this season so have to be respected, but they are not a team that have looked as good going forward as they would have liked. Some of that may be down to the fact that Bournemouth have faced some of the toughest teams in the Division after the opening game against Aston Villa, but this is a much more winnable fixture.

The first goal feels like it will be massive- Bournemouth's poor defensive performances are a worry against a Wolves team that do have pace and some quality in the final third. However, Wolves have lost the winning feeling and this could be a close match.

I don't think there will be much between them on the night, but Wolves may have just enough to steal the points and I think they can be backed on the Asian Handicap.

UPDATE: I wrote this before the news of Scott Parker's departure from Bournemouth was being confirmed. It could impact the players in a positive way- they will feel the previous manager has thrown them under the bus with some of his comments and it may produced a big reaction from them.

I still think Wolves will edge to the points on quality alone, but the dynamics are a little different now.


Manchester City v Nottingham Forest Pick: Wins are all that matters at the end of the day, but Manchester City will not want to continue having to fight back from two goals down as they have been in each of their last two Premier League fixtures. Some late misses prevented Manchester City coming back to beat Newcastle United, but that was not the case on Saturday as they fought back in a 4-2 win over Crystal Palace.

Pep Guardiola will be demanding more control from his players before the Champions League Group Stage begins next week and Manchester City also have some tougher games coming up.

The manager will be demanding that control begins on Wednesday when hosting Nottingham Forest, a team who have looked really open at the back and yet to show a consistency in the final third.

Nottingham Forest played attractive football against Tottenham Hotspur, but they were not able to create great openings and were perhaps a little fortunate to only lose by two goals on the day. Dean Henderson saved a Penalty for a second home game in succession, but the Manchester United player on loan at the City Ground is going to be a busy player on Wednesday.

The Tricky Trees will need Henderson at his best, but Nottingham Forest were well beaten at Newcastle United in their first away game. Everton created a lot of chances against Nottingham Forest too and that has to be a major concern for Steve Cooper ahead of a game against the Champions who have scored at least three goals in their last 3 Premier League games.

At home Manchester City have been very dominant and scored at least three goals in 4 of their last 5 at the Etihad Stadium, while banging in four in both home games against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace this month. I expect some changes to be made to the starting eleven, but Manchester City should have plenty of quality on the field and they are capable of covering this big Asian Handicap mark.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: An early London derby between two teams who will be chasing European places in the Premier League come the end of the season will be played on Wednesday as the first month of the campaign draws to a close.

It has been a more productive month for Tottenham Hotspur, although Antonio Conte will be looking for improved performances even if the results have been pretty good. The win at Nottingham Forest will have given Tottenham Hotspur some confidence, but Antonio Conte will be asking his players to just show a bit more composure all around.

He will be the first to remind the squad that this is going to be a much tougher test against a West Ham United team who have finally won a Premier League game for the first time this season. It was far from a vintage performance from David Moyes' team, but they did enough to beat Aston Villa and will be looking to back that up.

New signings are still bedding in though and West Ham United look short of defensive numbers with injury issues meaning there are vulnerabilities that can be exploited by the visiting team. The attacking side of their football has not really been firing as the manager would have hoped either and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can snap their run of consecutive losses at the London Stadium.

You have to believe Tottenham Hotspur can create the chances to do that as long as they can weather what could be an early West Ham United storm. David Moyes had set his team up to be very effective against the top teams last season, but West Ham United have been well beaten by Manchester City and Brighton at the London Stadium this month and I do think Tottenham Hotspur are playing well enough to secure another away victory in the space of less than a week.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: Eddie Howe is doing a very strong job as manager of Newcastle United, but there will be a frustration with some key injuries that have been picked up.

They lost Callum Wilson last week, while Allan Saint-Maximin picked up an injury against Wolves that is likely going to keep him out of this one. Alexander Isak could be involved for the first time since being signed from Real Sociedad, but Newcastle United may not have the same bite going forward as they did when facing Manchester City a couple of weeks ago.

I expect Newcastle United to be a threat from set pieces and their counter attack could hurt a Liverpool team that have played a high line under Jurgen Klopp. They have been able to do that with confidence previously, but injuries have left Liverpool a little more vulnerable and I do think Newcastle United can have some success.

However, Liverpool are going to be a lot more confident having thumped Bournemouth on Saturday and I do expect the home team to get forward and create chances. They have done that all season and Newcastle United are a team that allowed Brighton and Manchester City to create plenty against them.

Only an inspired Nick Pope has prevented Newcastle United from falling to defeat already this season, but they are likely going to need him at his best again. The Liverpool squad will begin to look much stronger in the next couple of weeks, but they have shown there is still enough quality to win matches.

Things have just seemed to conspire against Liverpool early in this season, while Newcastle United have perhaps had fortune on their side. However, I think Liverpool kick on from the win over Bournemouth and the injuries in key attacking areas may leave Newcastle United short in this one as Liverpool perhaps win by a big enough margin to cover this Asian Handicap line.


Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: Winning at St Mary's will have given the Manchester United players another shot of confidence, especially when you consider how poorly they have played away from Old Trafford for a number of months. 7 straight away losses underlines the point, but a gritty win at Southampton along with the clean sheet will keep the momentum going under Erik ten Hag.

Antony has been signed and that is a move endorsed by the manager, although he is unlikely to be playing on Thursday.

It will mean the starting eleven have to impress ten Hag with the likes of Casemiro and Cristiano Ronaldo others pushing for starts and I do think Manchester United have a few more options now. Regardless, Erik ten Hag has shown that reputations mean nothing and only form and doing what is expected on the field will be good enough to keep players in the starting line up.

Manchester United have not had the best of recent visits to the King Power Stadium, but they may not have a better chance to get the better of Leicester City.

Brendan Rodgers has seen his team look very vulnerable defensively and they have lost 3 Premier League games in a row. The last defeat came at Stamford Bridge despite the fact that Chelsea were reduced to ten men early on, while Leicester City have looked weak at both ends of the field in their opening three League games before the loss last Saturday.

Even in that one Chelsea created enough chances against Leicester City, which is going to be encouraging for Manchester United when noting that The Blues were down to ten men for 70 minutes.

James Maddison is a doubt and his absence would be a big blow for Leicester City, while Manchester United will feel they have the momentum behind them anyway. This is never an easy place to visit, but Leicester City have conceded two goals to both Brentford and Southampton here and Manchester United look a big price at odds against to win.

This won't be easy and I expect there will be tense moments to ride out for the visitors, but I am looking for the quality in the final third to just about give Manchester United the edge to earn the full points on offer.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-Brentford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brighton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea to Win & Over 1 Total Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leeds United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2022/23: 12-22, - 20.48 Units (68 Units Staked, - 30.12% Yield)


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5

Patience is always the key in playing any type of Fantasy game and not making any rash decisions when things have not gone to plan early is the absolute state of mind you have to maintain.

That isn't easy when big priced players are underperforming, but GameWeek 4 was a much stronger one.

In saying that, I am still not sure how my Captain failed to return even a single assist in a game in which his team managed to score NINE goals. The only saving grace is that many would have selected Mo Salah as their Captain for the week and the rest of my team made up for the lack of production from the Liverpool forward.


The couple of players that are of real concern are Leon Bailey and Gabriel Martinelli.

The latter has at least returned early and his price point has moved up markedly, but a couple of games in which he has not been as effective is something I have noted.

Arsenal have a solid squad of players and the likes of Emile Smith Rowe will be pushing Martinelli, although for now he is a keeper with other issues to address.

I have already mentioned how intense the schedule is between now and November and that is likely going to mean rotations- that means a strong bench is needed to make up for any players that are surprisingly rested.

With that in mind, my transfers this week are pretty easy having held one on GameWeek 4 to use ahead of the midweek fixtures. Leon Bailey has to leave the squad with the upcoming games and being out of favour under Steven Gerrard, while Zinchenko could miss out on Wednesday and then has a difficult game at Old Trafford to come, assuming he is back by the weekend.

I am looking to bring back Nico Williams of Nottingham Forest who has a good set of fixtures coming up after the visit to Manchester City and who looks like he could offer plenty of attacking returns. The Leeds United fixtures also look pretty appealing before the trip to Manchester United next month and so downgrading Zinchenko into a £4.1 million Williams opens the door to move Bailey into Rodrigo or Jack Harrison.

Patrick Bamford continues to miss time so Rodrigo looks the superior short-term choice and also is a potential player that can help to rebuild the bank after the drop in prices for both Bailey and Marcus Rashford hurt me early.


The Captain choice is a tough one this week- Erling Haaland's performance against Crystal Palace is obviously catching the eye, while Nottingham Forest have looked really weak defensively in the system being played by Steve Cooper. However, Pep Guardiola has already begun to troll the Fantasy players around the world by suggesting he will be rotating Haaland as soon as Manchester City have to play twice a week and this would be the perfect game to give Julian Alvarez the start.

It is enough to put me off Erling Haaland and give Mo Salah another chance- as disappointing as his return was on Saturday, he had a couple of great chances to score and I think he will have more against Newcastle United. Eddie Howe's team is much improved, but Brighton and Manchester City have created plenty of chances against them already this season and only an inspired Nick Pope has prevented defeat.

He will need to be as inspired on Wednesday and I think Mo Salah edges out Gabriel Jesus for the armband.

Good luck to all over the coming three days before GameWeek 6's deadline hits on Saturday morning.

US Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2022 (August 30th)

There have already been some big upsets at the US Open and we have not even completed the First Round yet.

In recent years it has been a tournament filled with surprise runs, but I also think the ball they are using at the US Open is one that is largely alien to players and so levels the playing field between the very best and the rest.

This is going to be something to keep an eye on as a wide open tournament moves into Day 2.


A really poor start had me watching the remainder of the Tennis on Day 1 through gaps in the hands and I am feeling almost fortunate to escape a really bad start to the event.

Some of the picks were poor, but I was also a touch unfortunate with a couple of them and I am looking for an improvement on what looks a difficult Day 2 for the selections.


Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 games v Sebastian Baez: You have to remember that Carlos Alcaraz is still a very young player on the Tour with his first real breakthrough coming at the US Open in 2021. He was Number 55 in the World Rankings ahead of the final Grand Slam last season, but Carlos Alcaraz reached the Quarter Final in fine style and this year he comes into the event as the World Number 4.

However, the fact that he is still relatively young has been highlighted by some of the comments made in recent events.

Carlos Alcaraz has admitted that he has not always coped very well with being a favourite in big events like the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters and it has led to some tougher matches than expected. There is no doubt that Carlos Alcaraz is not playing as well as he was earlier in the year and some may even suggest he is not quite over his French Open Quarter Final loss to Alexander Zverev as Carlos Alcaraz was looking to back up the expectations that had built on his shoulders in the lead up to that event.

The 19 year old may actually benefit from the relatively early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati and you should remember that Carlos Alcaraz has won the Miami Masters already this season. His hard court numbers look very impressive with a strong serve being backed up by a very strong return game and I do think Carlos Alcaraz can impress in this First Round as long as he can play the match with the aggression needed for a hard court.

I think that is the only way Carlos Alcaraz will want to play and it will also mean keeping Sebastian Baez running and preventing the clay court specialist from being able to defend as well as he would like. I really like how Sebastian Baez has played this season, but he is still learning his craft on the hard courts and I am not sure he has the tools to keep Carlos Alcaraz at bay.

Sebastian Baez has not won a hard court match since the First Round at the Australian Open and it should be said that he has largely been uncompetitive in the three losses suffered on the surface this summer. He has not won a set in any of those defeats and three of the six sets lost have been by the same 6/1 scoreline, which is a major concern for Sebastian Baez fans.

The World Number 37 is holding fewer than 70% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2022 and Baez has not been able to get into return games nearly as well as he can on the red dirt.

These two players met on a hard court at the Nxt Gen Finals last November, which are played in a different format to usual set tennis (first to four games to win a set for example), and it was a match dominated by Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard faced three break points in that match and managed to avoid being broken, while Carlos Alcaraz broke serve in 44% of return games played.

Barring the expectation getting on top of him, I think Carlos Alcaraz can get on top of this opponent on this surface in the First Round and he should be able to pull clear for a solid win.


Cameron Norrie - 8.5 games v Benoit Paire: Much of his formative years have been spent in the United States as Cameron Norrie decided to take the College route before entering the professional ranks. While many have chosen to turn professional as soon as possible, Cameron Norrie is the latest to come through the US College system to show that it is another effective avenue to success.

The conditions and courts in the United States should be very comfortable for Cameron Norrie who is the British Number 1 and a top ten player in his own right. Hard courts in general have been enjoyed by Cameron Norrie who has won a title and reached two more Finals on the surface, while he was a Semi Finalist at the Cincinnati Masters to underline his own credentials as a potential US Open Champion.

There will be plenty of challenges to overcome if Cameron Norrie is going to win this Slam, but the run to the Wimbledon Semi Final should have motivated him further. He will know it is important to try and get through the early Rounds as quickly as possible, especially in the hot conditions you tend to find at the US Open, and that means trying to get on top of Benoit Paire early and force the Frenchman to perhaps check out of the match.

It has been a big criticism of Benoit Paire throughout his career and I do think the Frenchman has underachieved, while he now sits well outside the top 150 in the World Rankings. I don't think Benoit Paire is someone who will regret his decisions, but all of the time he spent travelling the world and openly admitting that he was not bothered about winning matches has come back to bite him with the World Ranking dropping to where it currently stands.

Benoit Paire did Qualify for the Canadian Masters, but failed to do the same in Cincinnati and also had very early losses in Atlanta and Washington. The Frenchman has not had a winning record on the hard courts since 2018 and is on his way to another losing season, while Benoit Paire has pretty average numbers on both the serve and return.

Over the last twelve months, Benoit Paire has really struggled when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I do think he will struggle to be competitive in this one if he drops the first set.

The sole previous match between Cameron Norrie and Benoit Paire was won comfortably by the former and that was in January 2019- Cameron Norrie is much improved since then and I think he will have far too much for Benoit Paire, despite the talented Frenchman likely asking one or two questions of the top ten Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 8.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 4-5, - 3.64 Units (18 Units Staked, - 20.22% Yield)