US Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2025- Men's Final (Sunday 7th September)

Over the last couple of years, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have moved clear of the pack in men's tennis and they are set to meet for a third Grand Slam Final in a row.

One or the other has dominated the Grand Slam titles since the beginning of the 2024 season and this is the Final that the majority of supporters would have wanted to see when the US Open draw was made.

Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz over 40.5 games: The Wimbledon Final ended in four sets in favour of Jannik Sinner and he could have easily beaten Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets at the French Open Final instead of eventually being downed in five.

This perhaps explains the reason the World Number 1 is favourite to win the US Open title again, even if Carlos Alcaraz has tended to find a way to get the better of the head to head more often than not.

The win at Wimbledon snapped a run of five straight losses that Jannik Sinner had suffered against Carlos Alcaraz, although matches have tended to be close. Beating the World Number 2 at a Grand Slam where Alcaraz had been a double defending Champion can only further the belief that the Sinner team has ahead of this Final.

Some doubts may have been raised by potential injury that Jannik Sinner could be dealing with in the Final- he was off for a medical timeout in the win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Semi Final, while Sinner has dropped a couple of sets in his run to the Final compared with Carlos Alcaraz who has won all six matches in straight sets.

Carlos Alcaraz has been serving really well at the tournament and that is going to be key for him.

In the Wimbledon defeat, Carlos Alcaraz did struggle a little bit with his consistency on the serve and he cannot afford to do that here.

All signs suggest he will be much stronger in New York City, although he is also going to be facing a Jannik Sinner serve that can be very tough to deal with when at his best. There were times in the Semi Final win that Sinner's serve lost some speed and he gave up more Break Points than could be imagined, but there is a day of rest between matches and the World Number 1 has made it clear that there is 'nothing to worry about' as far as what the injury is.

It does raise some doubts, as it should, but this has the makings of another competitive match between the two best players in the world.

Early breaks in the sets played at Wimbledon made it tough to cover the total games line set, but the speed in New York City should help the players to get through a few more service games.

We will need to see at least four sets, but that feels very likely with what we have seen from Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in their head to head and the quality that both can produce on the hard courts.

The lean is with Jannik Sinner to find a way to win this Grand Slam title if he is at full speed, but that is a bit more doubtful and backing the two players to put a solid scrap on the board looks the best play.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 6th September)

The Women's Final is set for Saturday and it looks like it could be a really competitive one. even if there are some doubts about the nerves of the two players involved.

A disappointing Semi Final run for the Tennis Picks has stung, especially with a couple of selections being a point or two away from swinging back in our favour, but hopefully the Final Weekend can provide a couple of winning selections.

Aryna Sabalenka-Amanda Anisimova over 21.5 games: The last time Amanda Anisimova reached a Grand Slam Final, nerves clearly got the better of her and she did not even win a game.

The fact that was in the last Grand Slam and the American has become the first player to lose 6-0, 6-0 at a Major and then reach the Final at the next Slam speaks volumes about the belief Amanda Anisimova must have in her own game.

It helps that she has a strong record against Aryna Sabalenka having upset the World Number 1 in the Wimbledon Semi Final, although it was Sabalenka who won when the two met at Roland Garros in the second Grand Slam of the season.

Nerves have been an issue for Aryna Sabalenka at the business end of Grand Slams this season and it will not be lost on her that all three previous runs have been ended by players representing the United States.

She is the defending Champion here, and Aryna Sabalenka is capable of taking the racquet out of any opponent's hands.

Fatigue should not be an issue for either player, although there are some concerns about the fact that Amanda Anisimova's Semi Final ended in the early hours of Friday morning. That can be tough to recover from, especially with this Final scheduled for middle of the day on Saturday, but the head to head is a big boost for Amanda Anisimova and it should lead to a competitive Final and one that could easily see both players win a set.

There is potential for any straight sets win to also surpass this total set and that looks to be the best play in the women's Final at the fourth Grand Slam of the season.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka-Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 25-19, + 3.30 Units (87 Units Staked, + 3.79% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2025 (Friday 5th September)

The US Open Semi Final features the top three men's players in the sport and so it is a real surprise that a match featuring two of those is not set to be played in the primetime spot on Friday evening.

Instead Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz will be up first and this could be another quality match between the pair.

Later on Jannik Sinner is expected to move forward through to another Grand Slam Final having done that at the previous three Slams played this season and he remains the favourite to win the title.

Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz over 37.5 games: The Semi Final line up has been set and Novak Djokovic has to be privately thinking that the US Open has panned out exactly as he would have expected.

The former World Number 1 has made it clear in multiple interviews that he feels his pathway to winning a 25th Grand Slam title will feature him having to beat both of the top two players in the Rankings.

Barring an upset in the other Semi Final, Novak Djokovic is almost certainly going to have beat Jannik Sinner IF he is able to find a way past Carlos Alcaraz in the final four.

The key for Novak Djokovic is trying to make sure he has enough left in the tank to take on the the top two players at the business end of a Grand Slam. He has not looked at his best in the early Rounds and did drop a couple of sets he should not have, while Novak Djokovic has come through a tough Quarter Final against Taylor Fritz and so there are plenty of questions for him to answer.

He is taking on Carlos Alcaraz, the World Number 2 who won the title in Cincinnati and who has yet to drop a set at the US Open.

The draw has been kind as far as the Spaniard is concerned with none of the previous wins being against players Ranked inside the top 20 as things opened up. This is without a doubt the toughest test that Carlos Alcaraz will have faced at the US Open, but he has been placed as a significant favourite all things considered and Novak Djokovic will take plenty of motivation from that.

Carlos Alcaraz does have two Grand Slam Final wins over Novak Djokovic, both at Wimbledon, but it was the Serb who came through in a four set Quarter Final at the Australian Open earlier this year. That means Novak Djokovic has won the last two matches between the players, including in the Gold Medal match at the Paris Olympics, and it does feel like the veteran is being dismissed a bit too easily by the layers.

Novak Djokovic is going to have to be at his best to find a way to earn the upset.

He did play well against Taylor Fritz, a player that Djokovic has dominated, and it would be a surprise if the World Number 7 is not able to win at least one set.

It is going to be tough at times against a confident Carlos Alcaraz, and the expectation is that the World Number 2 will find a way to win this match, but Novak Djokovic can make it a competitive Semi Final.

Both men should have the capabilities to win a set and that should push this match past the total games line in this big match.

For Novak Djokovic it is key to at least split the first two sets in this match if he is going to earn the upset and the experience of the veteran should allow him to do that.

Winning the match will be tough though and Carlos Alcaraz is expected to be too strong over four sets.

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Barring a set and a half against Denis Shapovalov, Jannik Sinner has looked very comfortable at the US Open as he looks to defend the title won last year in New York City.

A crushing win over compatriot Lorenzo Musetti has kept the World Number 1 on track and he is expected to have too much for Felix Auger-Aliassime.

The latter can take inspiration from compatriot Denis Shapovalov, who had Jannik Sinner in a spot of bother earlier in the tournament, while Felix Auger-Aliassime has racked up the upsets to earn a spot in the Semi Final. Wins over Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Alex De Minaur have all been in a spot of being an underdog and Felix Auger-Aliassime has won two of those matches after dropping the first set.

It does mean having to spend more time on court than is perhaps ideal ahead of a match up against the World Number 1, but Auger-Aliassime has to be pretty confident in his tennis.

Of course, the Canadian is going to have to forget what happened the last time he faced Jannik Sinner.

In Cincinnati, Felix Auger-Aliassime was only able to win two games against the top Seed at the US Open and his serve was simply not working to a level that is needed.

Falling short of the standards that need to be set will put Felix Auger-Aliassime under a huge amount of pressure and it is very difficult to look past Jannik Sinner.

His hard court numbers have been ridiculous in 2025, and Sinner has cruised through the last couple of Rounds.

The returning part of his game is very dangerous and Jannik Sinner is capable of building up scoreboard pressure and breaking down his opponent.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is going to have to change that narrative to make this a competitive Semi Final, but that may be asking too much from him. He has had a really good tournament and the World Ranking is going to take a significant jump upwards when the new Rankings are released on Monday, but it looks like Felix Auger-Aliassime's time in New York City is set to come to a conclusion and in what may end up being another routine defeat to the World Number 1.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic-Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 4th September)

The last four days of the US Open begin with the spotlight on the final four women with both Semi Final matches scheduled for the night session.

They will then have a day of rest before the Final on Saturday and it will be the men who play the two Semi Final matches on Friday before the last Grand Slam of the season is completed at the end of the weekend.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula was the US Open Final and they meet again in New York City, albeit a Round earlier than in 2024.

Out of the two players, Jessica Pegula has been more impressive in her run to the Semi Final, but this has been a tough match up for in recent meetings against the World Number 1 and that is hard to ignore.

The Final was a tight, competitive battle ending 7-5, 7-5, but Aryna Sabalenka was a more comfortable winner in the Miami Final earlier this year. She dominated the number of Break Points created in that latter Final and the top Seed is very comfortable in New York City, even if the fans are likely to be firmly behind the American player.

Jessica Pegula has been serving very well in her run to the Semi Final and that is going to be important for her in this match.

She has to try and keep the pressure on Aryna Sabalenka and not be forced into a position where the World Number 4 has to attack what is a big serve.

The expectation is that Jessica Pegula will have some returning success considering the slightly underwhelming performances we have seen from Aryna Sabalenka in this tournament. Having a walkover in the Quarter Final may mean Sabalenka needs a bit more time to just settle down, and the feeling is that the first set is going to be another tight, competitive battle and four of the last five sets played between these two players have all ended 7-5.

However, it should be noted that Aryna Sabalenka has won all of those sets and she can do the same here, while then taking a similar route to the title win in Miami to cover this big mark.

Naomi Osaka-Amanda Anisimova over 21.5 games: There is so much to admire about the performances of both Naomi Osaka and Amanda Anisimova during this US Open and the winner is going to be very deserving of a place in the Final on Saturday.

After reaching the Wimbledon Final, Amanda Anisimova has to be given credit for backing that up and having such a strong run at her home Grand Slam tournament.

She was crushed without a winning a game in that Wimbledon Final, but Amanda Anisimova my have exorcised any demons by getting revenge on Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final in New York City. The World Number 9 has long been seen as a player with a huge amount of potential, and Anisimova is now making sure she is fulfilling some of that through her performances at the Majors.

Naomi Osaka is a two time former Australian Open and US Open Champion and is looking to complete a 100% conversion of rate at Major tournaments when reaching the Quarter Final- she has won all of the Grand Slams in which she has reached the last eight and Osaka will certainly feel good about moving through the Quarter Final without needing a deciding set.

Both of these players are serving effectively and that is going to be key to the outcome of this Semi Final.

It does feel like Naomi Osaka has a very slight edge when it comes to the serve and that may ultimately prove to be the difference in this match up.

Dismissing the chances of Amanda Anisimova will be a mistake, especially with the confidence she would have picked up in London and backed up here in New York City.

However, the American is going to have to serve really well to keep the pressure on Naomi Osaka, a player who has been playing with a lot of confidence of her own following the run to the Montreal Final last month.

It would not be a huge surprise if this is a match that needs at least one tie-breaker and there is every chance that both players can find a hot streak within a set to push this into a decider. The lean may be with Naomi Osaka, but the overriding feeling is that this could be a match that surpasses the total line set.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka-Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 24-16, + 7.86 Units (79 Units Staked, + 9.95% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 3rd August)

The US Open is set to bring together the very best players as we reach the business end of the tournament and there is much to look forward to.

The Semi Final lineup is set to be completed on Day 11 in New York City and the matches are now all scheduled to be played on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

We should see more competitive matches as the tournament comes to a conclusion, but the last couple of days have seen players move in front and ultimately hold onto their positions. The expectation is for one potentially long match on Day 11, but the favourites look pretty strong all around and that could show up on the scoreboard when all is said and done.

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: The level that Jannik Sinner has been producing on the hard courts over the last season and a half on the Tour makes questions about him pretty easy... Can the opponent win enough games to give the World Number 1 something to think about, especially against the spread that has been set in these Grand Slam tournaments?

Jannik Sinner himself is barely being pushed and the numbers are quite frankly ridiculous.

Beating Alexander Bublik in the fashion he did in the Fourth Round had his opponent laughing at the end of the match and it is going to take a monumental effort to stop Jannik Sinner from defending the title he won here last year.

The challenge goes to his compatriot in the Quarter Final when Lorenzo Musetti steps onto the court and the latter has had Grand Slam successes in the past that will give him the confidence to compete. He has not enjoyed the best of hard court preparation results, but Lorenzo Musetti has looked pretty comfortable in New York City and he has won the last eleven sets played and completed.

Last year, Lorenzo Musetti beat Alexander Zverev on the hard courts of Vienna, but he is just 3-11 when going up against top 10 Ranked players on this surface. That includes a defeat to Novak Djokovic in Miami earlier this year when winning just four games and Lorenzo Musetti will know more than most about the development and improvement in the Jannik Sinner game.

The problem for Lorenzo Musetti when going up against the very best players on the Tour on the hard courts is that he has not been able to get enough out of his serve. If he struggles on that front again, Jannik Sinner is going to dominate the direction of this Quarter Final and it makes it very difficult to see how the World Number 1 is going to be stopped.

A bigger question is the spread, but you have to feel that Sinner is going to find a set with a couple of breaks of serve in his favour and that could be enough to see him surpass the number where it currently stands.

In the two previous matches between the players on the Tour, Jannik Sinner has held 100% of his service games which is compared with Musetti's mark of 61%.

That will need to be closed dramatically for this Quarter Final to be much more competitive and that seems unlikely right now.

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: For the first time since January 2021 and the first time since returning to the Tour, Naomi Osaka has reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam tournament.

She has 'only' managed to do that four times in her career... However, it is the conversion rate that stands out with Naomi Osaka winning the title each time she has reached the last eight in a Grand Slam with two of those successes being here in New York City and the other two at the Australian Open.

There is no doubt that Naomi Osaka is very comfortable on the hard courts and reaching the Final in Montreal in the build up to the US Open has clearly given her a lot of confidence. The performances in the tournament have backed that up and the crushing victory over Coco Gauff in the Fourth Round will just have reminded Naomi Osaka of her capabilities both on this court and in general.

She will certainly respect her next opponent.

Twelve months ago, Karolina Muchova beat Naomi Osaka in the Second Round at the US Open and she was clearly the better player. Things did change when they met in Melbourne earlier this year as Naomi Osaka rallied and was comfortably the stronger player in a three set win in the Second Round at the Australian Open, but Osaka will appreciate the threat posed by the opponent on the other side of the net.

Karolina Muchova has shown her character by winning every match at the US Open in three sets and she has shown she can deal with crowd support being against her having overcome Venus Williams.

There hadn't been much form shown in the preparation tournaments for the US Open and Karolina Muchova's overall hard court numbers this year have been pretty average. The World Number 13 was just 4-7 against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to the US Open, although Muchova does have a couple of wins over that level of opponent within this run.

She will need to step things up if Naomi Osaka continues to play at her current level, but you cannot completely dismiss Karolina Muchova.

It is that respect that gives pause for thought, and this is a player that is rarely beaten easily.

However, Naomi Osaka will take plenty of confidence out of handling Muchova at the Australian Open and has proven to be a player that can be very tough to stop when she has picked up momentum within a tournament.

Karolina Muchova has to play her game with all the spins and slices to try and disrupt Naomi Osaka, but if the latter is serving at the level she has produced in this tournament, she should have too much for the higher Ranked player.

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There are going to be plenty of talk about the Wimbledon Final ahead of this US Open Quarter Final and you can completely understand why that will be the case.

It is the only time Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova have met on the Tour and it was the former who won the title in London without dropping a single game.

Credit has to be given to Amanda Anisimova for the way she has been able to recover and put some solid results on the board since that defeat, while credit has to be given to the American for making the Final at Wimbledon. However, there is going to be a significant mental hurdle to overcome in this Quarter Final against a player who won the Cincinnati title in the days before the US Open begun.

Iga Swiatek has not been at her absolute best in the tournament, but she was a dominant Fourth Round winner and she has only dropped a single set in New York City. The World Number 2 is also a former Champion here in 2022 and that is the kind of confidence that could make her very difficult to shift, no matter how well the home player has been playing for a number of months.

Amanda Anisimova was also a very comfortable Fourth Round winner and she has also only dropped a single set in her run to the Quarter Final here.

However, the American was only 2-2 in the build up to the US Open and her overall hard court numbers in 2025 will need to be significantly improved if Anisimova is going to find a way to the upset.

She is now a member of the top 10 in the World Rankings, but Amanda Anisimova has a 6-16 record against those players on the hard courts in her career. Last year she was 1-4 in those matches, but confidence will come from the fact that Anisimova holds a 2-0 record in that spot in 2025.

This is a much tougher test than facing Paula Badosa or Mirra Andreeva though and Iga Swiatek is not someone who is going to be overwhelmed by the crowd noise. The atmosphere can be pretty hostile when the crowd really get into the match, but Amanda Anisimova will have to make a fast start otherwise memories of Wimbledon will come flooding back, both for the player and those watching on.

Iga Swiatek's 6-1 record against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2025 cannot be ignored and she would have covered this spread in four of those seven matches. You have to feel that the World Number 2 is going to eventually get in control during this match and that ultimately is going to lead to her pulling away from one of the last two American players left in the women's draw.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Alex De Minaur over 38.5 games: He has been the producing a couple of upsets, which have also pushed a couple of the Tennis Picks into a losing spot, and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be going for a third in a row.

Wins over Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are impressive enough, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has dropped a single set in those matches.

He will certainly not be in awe of facing Alex De Minaur in this Quarter Final, even if the latter is the higher Ranked player, and it is Felix Auger-Aliassime who is the only one of these two competitors that have reached the Semi Final of any Grand Slam.

Alex De Minaur has become very consistent and he has reached the Quarter Final in four of the last six Grand Slam events played, although back to back events had ended before that Round. Getting over the line has proven to be a difficulty for someone like Andrey Rublev and there is a lot of pressure on Alex De Minaur to reach the last four considering the way the draw has fallen for him.

He will know that and that is going to build pressure against an opponent who has a serve that can take the racquet out of the hands of any opponent.

That is key for Felix Auger-Aliassime and it has been the reason he has been able to beat the last two opponents as scoreboard pressure has built up.

The Canadian will also be well aware that he is facing an opponent that does not serve as big as the previous two players beaten in the US Open and that should mean Felix Auger-Aliassime can expect to continue the successes he has had.

However, he is also facing an opponent that is not likely to beat himself and this has all of the makings of being one of the more competitive matches at the latter end of the men's tournament.

We have not seen too many of those in the last Round, but both players in this Quarter Final should be full of belief and the expectation is that we will need at least four sets and, potentially, have a match that goes the distance.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Alex De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 2nd September)

This is it, the final Grand Slam of the 2025 season has reached the Quarter Final Round and every player left in the draw has to feel they can win the tournament.

I do feel some meat has been left on the bone after Day 9 at the tournament, but there is time to turn things back in our own favour and that can begin on Tuesday as the Grand Slam continues.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Ten matches have been played between Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz on the professional Tour and it is Djokovic who has won every one of those previous matches.

The four time former US Open Champion may not be as beloved as some of his peers in Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and that can mean facing some hostile crowds.

It would be a real surprise if Novak Djokovic was going to be enjoying even half of the crowd supporting him for this US Open Quarter Final against the top Ranked American player.

Taylor Fritz finished as Runner Up here in New York City twelve months ago, and he remains one of the top performers on the hard courts. A Quarter Final defeat in Washington was followed by a Semi Final and Fourth Round run at the Masters, but Taylor Fritz is going to have focused on finding a way to win a Major and ensuring he peaks at the right time.

The head to head has to give Taylor Fritz pause for thought- losing all of those matches against Novak Djokovic is a factor that is hard to shift, while Taylor Fritz has lost Grand Slam matches to the former World Number 1 at both the Australian Open (twice) and US Open.

Losing here to Novak Djokovic would have really hurt Taylor Fritz two years ago, especially in the manner it happened.

He has simply not been able to compete with Novak Djokovic as well as he would have liked and it is tough to see how that changes.

There is room for improvement in the Novak Djokovic game and he is going to need that against Taylor Fritz in the form the home player is producing.

However, it is tough to know what Taylor Fritz is going to do in order to change the current tide that Novak Djokovic has built up against him.

Since their match at the Australian Open in 2021, Novak Djokovic has dominated the head to head and the former World Number 1 should have enough in the tank to find a way to secure a solid win in this one.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: There really isn't much to say about this selection.

Jiri Lehecka has enjoyed a couple of solid runs at the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters events building into the US Open, and he has looked pretty solid through the opening four Rounds at this Grand Slam event.

The draw has worked out pretty well for Jiri Lehecka, who has not beaten anyone Ranked higher than the World Number 59 position, but he has dropped too many sets in his run and this is a big step up for him.

Much will depend on how well Jiri Lehecka is able to serve.

If he can put his best foot forward, he has shown in previous matches against Carlos Alcaraz that he can serve well enough to put the pressure on the World Number 2.

Without a doubt, that is going to be key to making this a competitive Quarter Final.

Jiri Lehecka is going to be under pressure to serve well and that could be challenging over the course of a best of five set format.

Arthur Rinderknech showed that you can keep the sets competitive if serving at your best against Carlos Alcaraz, and that has to give the underdog some confidence. However, the Alcaraz serve is capable of building up plenty of scoreboard pressure and he has shown he can wear down Jiri Lehecka, even if the latter has the sole win when they have met on the hard courts.

This is expected to be the toughest test for Carlos Alcaraz through a couple of sets, but there is also every chance that the World Number 2 will break the spirit of Jiri Lehecka and that could see him pull away in another set with a couple of breaks. That may be enough for the favourite to eventually cover this big mark, although it is likely going to go down to the wire.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The upset over Elena Rybakina will have given Marketa Vondrousova the blueprint to what she has to do in order to reach the US Open Semi Final.

A similar performance is going to be needed in what is going to feel like a similar match up against Aryna Sabalenka, although the Czech player has lost her last four hard court matches against the World Number 1.

She was beaten in Cincinnati, but Marketa Vondrousova will take some confidence out of a match in which she created 12 Break Points against the Aryna Sabalenka serve. That is four times as many as she allowed and Vondrousova has played well in her matches at the US Open to believe that she will be able to convert more opportunities after failing to produce a single break of serve against Sabalenka in Cincinnati, despite the chances created.

Of course there will be some mental obstacles to overcome with this losing streak on the hard courts against Aryna Sabalenka to deal with.

However, Marketa Vondrousova has wins over Aryna Sabalenka on the clay courts and grass courts over the last eighteen months and the former Wimbledon Champion has Major success to give her confidence.

Aryna Sabalenka has not looked her dominant best since a disappointing Wimbledon- most players would think a Semi Final run is something to celebrate, but the World Number 1 will have greater expectations on herself.

Losses in the Australian Open and French Open Finals really have hurt too, but Aryna Sabalenka is the defending Champion in New York City and she has had a solid level in her run through to another Quarter Final.

There is no doubt that Aryna Sabalenka has to find another level if she is going to end 2025 with another Grand Slam title in the trophy cabinet, but there should be room for her to do that. Serving well is going to be key against an opponent who will be happy to slice and dice her way into those return games, but Aryna Sabalenka is familiar with Vondrousova's game and that should benefit her in this good looking Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 20-14, + 4.98 Units (67 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2025 (Monday 1st September)

It has been a busy day, but the focus is to get the Day 9 Picks out from the US Open.

The top players have continued to find their way into the business end of the tournament and that has to be exciting for all fans of the sport in the final Grand Slam of the year.

The drama will continue on Monday when the Quarter Final lineup is completed, but some of the matches have been priced up right on a tough margin and that leaves us with just two selections from the Day 9 schedule.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Alexander Bublik: There are not many players that can say they have given Jannik Sinner much to think about on a hard court, but Denis Shapovalov may have woken up with some regret having been moving into a position to secure an upset.

At 1-1 in sets, the Canadian moved into a 3-0 lead in the third set, but sparked Jannik Sinner into life and the World Number 1 won six straight games and continued the momentum into the fourth set.

In any Grand Slam run, even the very best players will have those matches that could easily derail them, but it is rare for those to have multiple lacklustre performances and expect to win a tournament.

With that in mind, Jannik Sinner should be a lot better in this Fourth Round match.

He will also be a little more focused knowing how awkward Alexander Bublik can be, especially as Jannik Sinner was beaten by the World Number 24 on the grass courts of Halle before the Italian won the Wimbledon title.

Alexander Bublik had an unexpected run at the French Open when reaching the Quarter Final and he will remember that it was Jannik Sinner who got the better of him on that day.

However, it should be noted that Alexander Bublik has used that run as motivation for plenty of successes in the last couple of months. Titles won on the clay courts over the last several weeks will have given him further confidence in the performances he is producing, and to the extent that Bublik has reached the Fourth Round at the US Open.

He has previously made it pretty clear that he does not enjoy the North American hard courts and Bublik skipped both Masters events in the build up to the US Open, but that has not slowed the momentum.

All five sets were needed for Alexander Bublik to finally get the better of Tommy Paul in the Third Round and that could be a potential problem. It wasn't a particularly long match, but it is the emotional back and forth that those five setters represent and the accumulation of fatigue that can see players struggle.

Prior to the US Open beginning, Alexander Bublik had a 7-10 record on the hard courts and his numbers will have to be far better than his usual level if he is going to push the top Seed and defending Champion.

The two wins that Alexander Bublik has over Jannik Sinner will give him some belief, but both were on grass courts that Sinner had not always been at his best before his own success at Wimbledon.

On this surface, Jannik Sinner should have too much for Alexander Bublik and he can cover what is a potentially awkward line.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Andrey Rublev over 41.5 games: The upset of Alexander Zverev has just opened up a pathway to the US Open Semi Final and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be under the pressure of backing up that victory over the World Number 3.

There were signs of the confidence that Felix Auger-Aliassime is playing with in his run at Cincinnati, but even then, the manner of his loss to Jannik Sinner would have meant few people backing the Canadian to have a big impact in New York City.

He has dropped down the World Rankings, which means there are increased chances of having to face some of the top names earlier in the Grand Slam draw than would have been hoped. Credit has to be given to Felix Auger-Aliassime for playing with the intensity he did against Alexander Zverev with the match turning in the second set tie-breaker which was only just won by Auger-Aliassime.

The Fourth Round match is against an opponent who made hard work of his Third Round win, although Andrey Rublev did win.

In recent months the World Number 15 may not have had the mentality to battle through a match where things had not gone his way and so Andrey Rublev has to be ready to reach the Quarter Final at the US Open again.

Both players have very similar numbers on the hard courts, although the mental edge is clearly with Andrey Rublev who has won seven of the previous eight matches between the players. That includes two wins in 2025, one of those being on the hard courts, and so you can understand why the layers have made the Russian a slight favourite, despite similar levels of performance on the surface.

Felix Auger-Aliassime's sole win over Andrey Rublev has been on a hard court, while he will point out how competitive all of those matches have been.

Only one of the five hard courts matches between these two players has been won in straight sets and this has all of the makings of going at least four and potentially five.

Both are capable of rolling through the service games on the hard courts against the opponent they are facing and backing this Fourth Round match to surpass the total line looks the right approach.

Tie-breakers cannot be ruled out during this contest and just one of those would put the match on the way to a cover as long as each player takes a set, which looks pretty likely on current form.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Andrey Rublev Over 41.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2025 (Sunday 31st August)

A number of the Day 7 matches have yet to begin at the time of writing, but there is Fourth Round action scheduled for Sunday and the selections from those matches can be read below.

The quality of the matches should ramp up as we move into the second week of this Grand Slam and especially with so many of the leading contenders still fighting their way through the draw.

It looks like it could be a special US Open compared with recent seasons when the final Grand Slam of the season has been negatively impacted by too many players not feeling at their best.

There are still some question marks about the way the two Masters events were scheduled this year, and that may be something that is forced to change in the years ahead, but in general this has been a tournament which has produced plenty of quality and that can only be a positive for the fans and the organisers.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Two veterans of the Tour meet for a place in the US Open Quarter Final, but the Jan-Lennard Struff run to the Fourth Round really has come out of left field.

He is the younger player in this match and the German will take confidence out of the fact he was Qualifying matches before upsetting two Seeded players. That includes Jan-Lennard Struff beating Frances Tiafoe, a home player who has had considerable success at the US Open in recent years, and so there will be nothing wrong with the belief in the 35 year old's camp.

There has been little sign of the run after early losses in Cincinnati and Cancun so all credit has to be given to Jan-Lennard Struff.

His World Ranking will be back inside the top 100 at the end of the tournament, which is very important and Struff will feel there is nothing to lose for him in this Fourth Round match.

Another Seed stands in his way and Novak Djokovic looks to be doing just enough to progress through the Rounds.

There have been some concerns around Novak Djokovic who has looked a little vulnerable physically, but the overall match up in this Fourth Round clash should not be too concerning. The rallies are not expected to be extended and that should help Novak Djokovic, as will the familiarity with the opponent he is facing.

He has won all seven previous Tour meetings between the players and six of those have been on the hard courts.

The numbers have been heavily skewed in favour of Novak Djokovic with 87% of service games ending in holds, while also breaking in 42% of return games.

The former World Number 1 swept Jan-Lennard Struff aside at the US Open in 2020, although Novak Djokovic has not faced this opponent for a number of years.

It may mean needing a bit of time to just get a reading of the Struff serve, but you have to believe that Novak Djokovic will eventually begin to wear down this opponent and move into a position to cover a line that is in an awkward position.

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Ann Li: One more win will see Ann Li move into a career best World Ranking, but the 25 year old deserves plenty of praise for reaching the Fourth Round at a Grand Slam for the first time.

This is after making the Cleveland Final last week and the confidence has to be flowing after early defeats in Montreal and Cincinnati.

Ann Li has always been a competitive performer on the hard courts and she has put together a decent year on the surface. She is likely to receive plenty of support from those in the stands, while Ann Li gave Madison Keys a serious test at the Australian Open earlier this year.

All of the pressure is on Jessica Pegula, who reached the Final at the US Open last year, and the World Number 4 will have plenty of respect for her compatriot. When they met at the French Open earlier this year, Jessica Pegula was perhaps a little wasteful when it came to converting the Break Points that she was able to create and that made it a tougher win than it perhaps should have been.

Ultimately it was a win and Jessica Pegula is a quality hard court player, even if she is going to be an underdog if facing any of the former Grand Slam Champions that are still lurking in the draw.

Jessica Pegula has been playing really well in New York City and clearly enjoys the atmosphere at the event having reached the Final eleven months ago.

She will need to serve well to try and keep the threat at bay and Ann Li is someone that will put every bit of effort on the line. This makes her a threat, and always capable of finding a way to cover the bigger lines, even in a losing effort, and Pegula will just have to be aware that she does not offer too much encouragement to her opponent.

If she can avoid doing that, Jessica Pegula should be the player with the majority of the Break Points and that should give her every chance to secure a pretty solid victory.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The dominant win over Emma Raducanu has to have given Elena Rybakina a real boost in her bid to finally have a big impact at the US Open. Despite her obvious talent and the way she can play on the hard courts, Elena Rybakina has never before reached the Fourth Round in New York City.

She is into that Round this year, although faces another former Grand Slam Champion as Elena Rybakina did in the previous Round.

An injury hit twelve months has been the main reason Marketa Vondrousova has dropped down to World Number 60, while she suffered a couple of relatively early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati.

The lefty has not had much of an impact at the Grand Slam tournaments this year, but Marketa Vondrousova is a former Quarter Finalist at the US Open and the win over Jasmine Paolini in the Third Round is going to fill her with confidence. She has also beaten McCartney Kessler, another player Ranked higher than the Czech player, and so Vondrousova has to enter this match with the belief she can reach the last eight at Flushing Meadows again.

Marketa Vondrousova was pretty well beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati though and she will need some help from Elena Rybakina.

While not being at her absolute best throughout the first three Rounds, Elena Rybakina has a serve that will always set her up when she is producing her best from the line. She is also an aggressive return player with heavy groundstrokes pushing opponents back behind the baseline and Elena Rybakina did earn a very strong win over Marketa Vondrousova in their last meeting on the clay courts in 2023.

This is not going to be an easy match and facing a lefty serve can always be a challenge, but Elena Rybakina might just do enough to find a way to earn a maiden Quarter Final in New York City with a cover of this line.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 17-12, + 3.54 Units (57 Units Staked, + 6.21% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 30th August)

It has not been a good day for American tennis, at least on the men's side of the tournament, with the likes of Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe exiting the US Open before the second week is set to begin.

The Third Round at the final Grand Slam of the season is scheduled to be concluded on Saturday and there are some potentially big matches coming up.

As the tournament progresses and with the majority of the top names still going strong at the event, the matches that will matter most to the fans should be taking place more frequently. There are one or two portions of the draw that have begun to look wide open for a surprise name to have a very big impact at this Grand Slam, but the top contenders are still flying and it is hard to look past someone familiar picking up both Singles titles.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Some very late drama was attached to the win over Jacob Fearnley when the underdog decided to produce tennis of a ridiculous level, but Alexander Zverev was never in any danger of being pushed too much further.

The 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 win has continued comfortable passage through the US Open draw and it is clear that Alexander Zverev is pretty happy for most people to talk about the 'big two'.

The World Number 3 is a former Finalist here and has done the same in Melbourne and Paris and so Alexander Zverev has to be confident in his ability to beat anyone and everyone he faces.

Next up is a match against Felix Auger-Aliassime who has yet to drop a set at the US Open and who has been playing some of his best hard court tennis of recent years over the course of the season. However, the Canadian did blow a two set lead in being dumped out of the Second Round at the Australian Open, while Auger-Aliassime has lost his last four hard court matches when facing a top 20 Ranked opponent.

Felix Auger-Aliassime certainly serves well enough to offer some resistance and he has had competitive matches when facing the best players, at least in the main. He was crushed by Jannik Sinner at the Cincinnati Masters, but that feels like an exception to the rule so Alexander Zverev will have to be very focused in what looks a quality match.

The German has been much more solid in the bigger matches compared with Felix Auger-Aliassime, while Alexander Zverev will hold the mental advantage.

The sole Grand Slam match between these players was won by Felix Auger-Aliassime at Wimbledon in 2021, but Alexander Zverev has won three of the four matches played against one another since then.

He has also won four of the five hard court matches, including a crushing win at the Miami Masters in 2024.

This should be more competitive than that match, but it is Alexander Zverev who looks more capable of coming out on top at key moments and the expectation is that he will progress in either three or, more likely, four sets.

Alex De Minuar - 7.5 games v Daniel Altmaier: After going 2-1 down in sets and losing serve very early in the fourth set, Daniel Altmaier could have easily begun to think about his exit plans from New York City.

Instead he battled back to win that set and then came through a really tough fifth set to upset Stefanos Tsitsipas and earn himself another match at the US Open.

He is also playing in the Doubles in this final Grand Slam of 2025, but the real challenge for Daniel Altmaier is going to be recovery. For the second match in a row, he has spent well over four hours on the court and that is going to accumulate within the body.

Making matters worse is the opponent.

Alex De Minaur has the movement and the defensive skills to really punish any fatigue that Daniel Altmaier is going to be feeling and this is going to make those hours spent on the court hurt for the underdog.

The World Number 8 won the title in Washington in the build up to this Grand Slam and he has been very comfortable through the first couple of Rounds.

Over the course of the season, Alex De Minaur has shown improvement in both service and returning numbers on the hard courts and he did reach the Quarter Final in his home Grand Slam before running into Jannik Sinner. The very top players look like they will have too many weapons for the top Australian player, but Alex De Minaur is very comfortable when facing opponents he is expected to beat as highlighted by the 24-4 record against players Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface in 2025.

One of those victories was against Daniel Altmaier on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam back in February and it was a strong win for the favourite.

Alex De Minaur dropped just five games in getting past this opponent on that day and you have to believe he can pull away from Daniel Altmaier in the second and third set once tiredness and the scoreboard really turn against the World Number 56.

Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Coleman Wong: The last twelve to eighteen months have been quite difficult for Andrey Rublev as he looks to avoid wasting unnecessary energy on the courts.

Most of that was through open frustration and he has admitted that it had been holding him back.

Consistency had seen Andrey Rublev reach six of seven Grand Slam Quarter Finals between May 2022 and January 2024, but he has now failed to progress beyond the Fourth Round in six straight Majors. With that in mind, the Quarter Final runs in Toronto and Cincinnati will have given the World Number 15 some confidence and he has looked pretty solid in the tournament so far.

The draw has opened up a little bit and Andrey Rublev next faces Coleman Wong who is the World Number 173.

Credit has to be given to Coleman Wong for coming through the Qualifiers and then upsetting Aleksander Kovacevic and Adam Walton. He has played a lot of tennis over the last week, but winning will have given him a lift, although Wong will be well aware that this is a big leap in level compared with the opponents he has beaten in the run to the Third Round.

The Coleman Wong serve could be a key weapon for him, but he has struggled when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents faced on the hard courts.

Focus will be key for Andrey Rublev.

If he can just not allow himself to become overly frustrated, Andrey Rublev should have the majority of Break Point chances in this match and it could lead to a routine win.

This has sometimes been Andrey Rublev's downfall, but he has looked better all around over the last month on the North American hard courts. He should have enough quality on the court to eventually break down and wear down this opponent and reach the Fourth Round for the sixth time in nine main draw appearances in New York City.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This has been a really productive month of tennis for Naomi Osaka and she is a very dangerous player in the women's draw at the US Open.

A two time former Champion here, Naomi Osaka's game is perfectly suited to the hard courts.

However, her return to the Tour has perhaps not been as smooth as hoped because Naomi Osaka has sometimes struggled to deal with expectation that will have been heaped on her shoulders. Everyone knows the level that Osaka can produce and the pressure has been on to reach that once again, which has perhaps contributed to some of the inconsistent results.

Things look a bit different right now and Naomi Osaka's confidence looks in a good place.

She will tested by Daria Kasatkina who has been a solid hard court player this season, but one who has struggled to get over the line in recent matches.

Two wins in New York City will have given her some confidence and Daria Kasatkina reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open so is clearly happy playing on the hard courts.

However, this is a match that feels like it will be played on the Naomi Osaka racquet- if she serves well, Osaka should find plenty of short runs to attack, while the heavier groundstrokes could see her push Daria Kasatkina onto the back foot.

In their two previous meetings on the Tour, Naomi Osaka has dominated the outcome and that includes on the clay courts in Rome 2024. That may be a surface on which Daria Kasatkina would have felt she could compete best with this powerful opponent, but that was not the case and her own serve has vulnerabilities that Naomi Osaka can exploit in this Third Round match.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Magdalena Frech: The first couple of wins at the US Open have not been as straight-forward as Coco Gauff would have hoped and she was in an emotional mood in the Second Round.

The former Champion in New York City, Coco Gaiff perhaps feels more pressure to impress the home fans and that was perhaps part of the reason she was feeling how she was the last time out.

She has faced a couple of awkward opponents, but Coco Gauff has to be more comfortable facing Magdalena Frech considering the two victories and manner of those against this opponent.

The World Number 33 had lost three hard court matches in a row before the two victories at the US Open, but Magdalena Frech has played really well here. The two wins have to give her confidence, although it should be stated that the draw has been a decent one for the Seeded player and this is a considerably tougher test.

Magdalena Frech will be hoping that Coco Gauff has something of an off day, but the reality is that the American is the better player and should be much more comfortable on this surface.

The match up has been one that Coco Gauff has enjoyed previously and it should mean this is one of the more routine wins in the Third Round.

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 games v Jaqueline Cristian: Beating one American player may have upset the home crowd, but Jaqueline Cristian was doing the same in the Second Round.

Now she takes aim at a third American player in a row, although Cristian will be very much aware that Amanda Anisimova is the best of the three home hopes that she will have faced in the US Open.

The run to the Third Round has been a little surprising when you think Jaqueline Cristian had lost three hard court matches in a row, including early defeats in Cincinnati and Monterrey. All three of those defeats were in routine fashion and it could be a difficult challenge containing someone like Amanda Anisimova who is very keen to build on reaching the Wimbledon Final.

The defeat in the Final would have stung, but Amanda Anisimova is very confident on the hard courts and has looked good in the first two Rounds in New York City.

In matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, Cristian has really struggled to have much of an impact.

Amanda Anisimova has not been a dominant player, even if she has racked up the wins to move into the top 10 of the World Rankings.

There is definitely some room for improvement in the hard court numbers, although the confidence looks to be flowing through the American right now. She has picked up two very solid wins at Flushing Meadows and Amanda Anisimova has all of the qualities to secure another one, while doing just enough to cover the line that has been set for the match.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 15-9, + 6.44 Units (47 Units Staked, + 13.70% Yield)