US Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 4th September)

The last four days of the US Open begin with the spotlight on the final four women with both Semi Final matches scheduled for the night session.

They will then have a day of rest before the Final on Saturday and it will be the men who play the two Semi Final matches on Friday before the last Grand Slam of the season is completed at the end of the weekend.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula was the US Open Final and they meet again in New York City, albeit a Round earlier than in 2024.

Out of the two players, Jessica Pegula has been more impressive in her run to the Semi Final, but this has been a tough match up for in recent meetings against the World Number 1 and that is hard to ignore.

The Final was a tight, competitive battle ending 7-5, 7-5, but Aryna Sabalenka was a more comfortable winner in the Miami Final earlier this year. She dominated the number of Break Points created in that latter Final and the top Seed is very comfortable in New York City, even if the fans are likely to be firmly behind the American player.

Jessica Pegula has been serving very well in her run to the Semi Final and that is going to be important for her in this match.

She has to try and keep the pressure on Aryna Sabalenka and not be forced into a position where the World Number 4 has to attack what is a big serve.

The expectation is that Jessica Pegula will have some returning success considering the slightly underwhelming performances we have seen from Aryna Sabalenka in this tournament. Having a walkover in the Quarter Final may mean Sabalenka needs a bit more time to just settle down, and the feeling is that the first set is going to be another tight, competitive battle and four of the last five sets played between these two players have all ended 7-5.

However, it should be noted that Aryna Sabalenka has won all of those sets and she can do the same here, while then taking a similar route to the title win in Miami to cover this big mark.

Naomi Osaka-Amanda Anisimova over 21.5 games: There is so much to admire about the performances of both Naomi Osaka and Amanda Anisimova during this US Open and the winner is going to be very deserving of a place in the Final on Saturday.

After reaching the Wimbledon Final, Amanda Anisimova has to be given credit for backing that up and having such a strong run at her home Grand Slam tournament.

She was crushed without a winning a game in that Wimbledon Final, but Amanda Anisimova my have exorcised any demons by getting revenge on Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final in New York City. The World Number 9 has long been seen as a player with a huge amount of potential, and Anisimova is now making sure she is fulfilling some of that through her performances at the Majors.

Naomi Osaka is a two time former Australian Open and US Open Champion and is looking to complete a 100% conversion of rate at Major tournaments when reaching the Quarter Final- she has won all of the Grand Slams in which she has reached the last eight and Osaka will certainly feel good about moving through the Quarter Final without needing a deciding set.

Both of these players are serving effectively and that is going to be key to the outcome of this Semi Final.

It does feel like Naomi Osaka has a very slight edge when it comes to the serve and that may ultimately prove to be the difference in this match up.

Dismissing the chances of Amanda Anisimova will be a mistake, especially with the confidence she would have picked up in London and backed up here in New York City.

However, the American is going to have to serve really well to keep the pressure on Naomi Osaka, a player who has been playing with a lot of confidence of her own following the run to the Montreal Final last month.

It would not be a huge surprise if this is a match that needs at least one tie-breaker and there is every chance that both players can find a hot streak within a set to push this into a decider. The lean may be with Naomi Osaka, but the overriding feeling is that this could be a match that surpasses the total line set.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka-Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 24-16, + 7.86 Units (79 Units Staked, + 9.95% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 15th May)

Another mixed day of results at the Rome Masters means the Picks for the tournament remain in the black, although not been able to add to some of the earlier successes.

There are just four days remaining in the Italian capital and then there will be a short break until the French Open begins on Sunday 25th May- the tournaments next week will be left for watching purposes as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned and the full focus will have turned to the second Grand Slam of the season.

Soon enough the Tour will move onto the grass courts and the build towards Wimbledon, but so many are going to be heading to Paris believing they can win a major tournament and that can only be good news for the fans. Grass remains a specialist surface and so the real contenders may be contained to a handful of players, but in Paris there are so many players looking in good shape and this should mean an entertaining viewing tournament, although one that can be tough to negotiate when making daily Picks from the event.

Before all of that, the Rome Masters needs to be concluded and Thursday looks a tough day- four matches are scheduled, but only one selection will be made from the second of the WTA Semi Finals.

Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: It might have been a win that will put another bit of momentum into Qinwen Zheng's career having got the better of the World Number 1 for the first time. The confidence can only be increased from the fact that she was a deserving winner and the Gold Medal Winner from the Paris Olympic Games will be a genuine threat to win the upcoming French Open.

Qinwen Zheng can really make a statement in Rome if she can back up her win over Aryna Sabalenka by beating the second best player in the world.

Seeing off the Madrid Champion will have been a huge boost for Qinwen Zheng, but beating the Runner Up in the next Round would only see her price shorten for success at a Grand Slam for the first time. Much will depend on the Zheng serve and whether she can continue to back it up as well as she has in this tournament, but this is expected to be a stern examination for the World Number 8.

Coco Gauff had a solid win over Mirra Andreeva in the Quarter Final and she has won three matches in a row without dropping a set.

Much like her fellow top ten Ranked opponent, the key for Coco Gauff is to continue protecting the second serve as she has done in this tournament. The American has clearly shown an aggressive and productive approach to her return of serve, but that is always going to be something Coco Gauff is comfortable doing when she knows she is able to roll through her own service games.

Qinwen Zheng does have a very good first serve, but she is looking for a big opener and that has seen her make 52% of her first delivery in the tournament. It is a number that needs to be improved so Coco Gauff is not getting a foothold in return games, and that is where the Semi Final could be won or lost.

Both previous matches between the players have been competitive, but it has been Coco Gauff who has created the majority of Break Points. One of those matches took place here in Rome twelve months ago and the higher Ranked player was able to come through a competitive opening set before pulling away from Qinwen Zheng and this could be another match that follows that kind of pattern.

Two players who should be there or thereabouts when the French Open reaches the last few days will be looking to lay down a marker here, but the edge feels like it is with Coco Gauff and she can come through a tough Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 11-8, + 1.29 Units (19 Units Staked, + 6.79% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Thursday 23rd January)

If I am being honest, I am not a big fan of the technology that has infiltrated sport, especially in football where so many subjective decisions are causing controversy.

However, there are certain elements where technology can play an important role- offside is slightly controversial with the line drawing, but goal-line technology is making things much clearer and that is a positive intervention.

With that in mind, it is quite staggering that tennis players are expected to make snap shot calls over things like a double bounce- when the lines were being called by umpires, players were still given a bit of time to determine whether they wanted to challenge calls, but those are much easier to see for a player compared with the number of bounces a ball has taken when it is a bang-bang call.

The reality is that on Day 11 of the Australian Open it was not a bang-bang call when Emma Navarro's drop-shot clearly landed for a second time significantly before Iga Swiatek was able to get to it and the entire Stadium could see what had happened immediately.

However, Emma Navarro was not able to really stop the point where she is expected to and ultimately it has proven to be a controversial moment that will have authorities changing the way they expect the technology to be used.

The match would have still likely landed in Iga Swiatek's direction, but it was a poor look for a sport in a Quarter Final setting and that will be talked about until the Semi Final matches begin on Day 12.

Both Tennis Picks came through on Day 11 and that has moved the number back in a positive direction after a 1-2 record on Day 10.

It has been a really strong tournament and with six matches left it feels more comfortable to say that- however, the focus is to go 6-0 rather than 0-6 over the coming days to give the 2025 year an early boost.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Paula Badosa: In April 2022, Paula Badosa was the World Number 2 and looking like a player ready to challenge the very best for the very biggest prizes in the sport.

Injury pushed Paula Badosa not only down the World Rankings to the point that she was entering the Australian Open in 2024 as the World Number 100, but it also pushed the Spaniard to the brink of retirement.

The last twelve months might have felt like the last roll of the dice for Paula Badosa and any setbacks might have meant retirement was the only real solution to her issues.

Thankfully she has not only largely avoided problems, but Paula Badosa has gradually approached the kind of tennis that took her to World Number 2 in the first place. She reached the US Open Quarter Final in September, only the second time she had made it that far at a Grand Slam event, but Paula Badosa has surpassed that here in Melbourne after the deserved upset of Coco Gauff on Day 10.

Improvements on the court means Paula Badosa entered the tournament as the World Number 12 and she is expected to be back inside the top ten when the new Rankings are released on Monday.

This is a big match for Paula Badosa and she will be hoping that facing a friendly face in Aryna Sabalenka, a good friend off the court, will help ease the tension.

The two time defending Champion came through a tough Quarter Final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and that will have given Aryna Sabalenka a bit more belief as she looks to win another Grand Slam title Down Under. Her overall performance in Melbourne has perhaps not reached her top level, but that could be a positive for Aryna Sabalenka as she looks to peak in the coming days and try and win the title on Saturday.

We know there is better to come from the Sabalenka first serve and that is going to be important in this Semi Final, especially if Paula Badosa continues to serve as well as she has.

The most impressive part of Paula Badosa's serving has to be how well she has managed the second serve and she beat an erratic and inconsistent Coco Gauff impressively. There is an expectation that Aryna Sabalenka will offer more of a threat on the return with this aspect of her tennis being key to her run to the Semi Final, while the experience edge cannot be ignored.

Aryna Sabalenka is leading the head to head thanks to five straight wins over Paula Badosa, including all three played in 2024.

They did play out a competitive match in Stuttgart on the clay, which was prematurely ended when Paula Badosa had to withdraw in the third set, but the other two matches on the hard courts of Miami and clay courts of Roland Garros were both won comfortably enough by the Belarusian.

Paula Badosa has a big game and can be very dangerous, but it is an unfamiliar moment for her and that could just see nerves play a part.

Prior to her successes in Australia, Aryna Sabalenka had some of those difficult learning moments in the big Grand Slam matches and she may just have the power and authority on this court to dish out a painful lesson to a good friend.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Madison Keys: The chances of the Quarter Final moving in a different direction are pretty slim, but Iga Swiatek's win over Emma Navarro had a huge controversial moment in the second set when a clear 'double bounce' was missed by the umpire.

Without an immediate stop of the point, Emma Navarro was not able to review, while Iga Swiatek has had to face some criticism for not showing some sportsmanship to offer the point to her opponent.

It was at a big moment with Navarro looking to move ahead in the second set, but she failed to win another game and Iga Swiatek continues to play at a very high level.

Five wins have been produced at Melbourne Park and the numbers are really impressive, and that means Madison Keys has a huge challenge in front of her as she bids to return to a Grand Slam Final.

The last American female player left in the draw, Madison Keys has played the big points really well in her run to the Semi Final. She has dropped sets in three of the five matches won at the Australian Open, including in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final wins, but credit has to be given to Madison Keys for overcoming tough situations.

Without a doubt she is going to have to pick up her level and Madison Keys is going to have to serve at her very best if she is going to beat Iga Swiatek playing at her current level.

She has being protecting the serve well enough, but Madison Keys is only winning 40% of return points in this tournament and that makes it very difficult to believe in her chances of securing the upset. The fact Keys is now playing an opponent who has just SIX Break Points in five matches won at the Australian Open means the American is likely going to be under significant scoreboard pressure.

Iga Swiatek has not been broken in her last four matches and a dominant first serve has kept her on top of opponents and broken their spirit.

And of course you cannot ignore the fact that the World Number 2 has won 55% of the return points played at the Australian Open, which means Madison Keys is going to have to get plenty of first serves in play and try and move into a position to play first strike tennis. This is going to be very challenging for her and the feeling is that Iga Swiatek will control the tempo of this match and break down Keys physically and mentally during the time spent on the court.

The head to head does not make very good reading for Madison Keys, although both matches played against Iga Swiatek in 2024 were on the clay courts and ended in routine wins for the Polish player as expected.

In two previous hard court matches, both players have won once with the most recent being a Madison Keys win in Cincinnati in August 2022. However, the form of the two players leading into this Semi Final suggests Iga Swiatek is going to avenge that defeat and her return is capable of putting Madison Keys under the kind of pressure that eventually leads to a routine win for the higher Ranked player.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 26-10, + 21.40 Units (69 Units Staked, + 31.01% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 5th September)

By the time Day 11 begins, there will be just eight Singles players left at the US Open.

This is the point in which the women's and men's events separate with each being showcased on different days, beginning with the women's Semi Final matches on Day 11.

Day 12 will be reserved for the men's Semi Final matches before the tournament is concluded over the weekend with the women's Final on Saturday and the men's on Sunday.

The last of the women's Quarter Final matches is scheduled for the opening match of the Day 10 evening session and so any selection from that match will be added to this thread.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Emma Navarro: Twelve months ago, Emma Navarro had just lost in the First Round at the US Open and the World Number 57 made little noise in the tournament.

Fast forward to September 2024 and Navarro is going to be cracking the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time having surpassed her Quarter Final run at Wimbledon. This will mean even more to Emma Navarro who was born in New York and reaching the Semi Final is a big achievement.

She has already beaten the defending Champion and now faces the 2023 Runner Up, although most will feel that Aryna Sabalenka is a much greater test than anyone that Navarro has beaten so far.

After missing Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics, Aryna Sabalenka has shown she is back to her very best with a title win in Cincinnati followed by a very strong run in this tournament. Getting over the Semi Final hurdle had proved too much for Sabalenka to handle mentally, but she is now a two time Grand Slam Champion and did make the Final at Flushing Meadows twelve months ago.

The World Number 2 crushed Emma Navarro at the French Open, but the belief in the lower Ranked player will be fuelled by the win she has over Aryna Sabalenka at the Indian Wells Masters on a hard court. On that day Navarro played well and was the more clinical when the Break Points came up, while she saved 4/6 Break Points played on her own serve.

Creating Break Points against the Sabalenka serve is never an easy task and that is going to be the challenge for Emma Navarro. Aryna Sabalenka has dropped serve just four times in the five wins she has produced at the US Open, which is very strong form, while three of her last four opponents have failed to convert any of their opportunities.

The expectation is that Emma Navarro will be able to have a bit more success considering her ability to get enough balls back into play to create problems. It is key to try and make Sabalenka feel she is working for every point and not having the easy service games to roll through and build confidence and momentum.

Emma Navarro has been serving very well for the majority of matches played in the tournament and maintaining that is also very important if she is going to give the World Number 2 something to think about. An aggressive player, Aryna Sabalenka has been keeping the pressure on her opponent's behind her return and she may just have the qualities to win a tight set before running away with this match.

Her experience is going to be so important, and that may see Aryna Sabalenka have the right tennis at the right moments to win the key points in a solid victory.

Emma Navarro has laid the foundation for more successes to come, but this is where her 2024 US Open may come to an end.

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 games v Karolina Muchova: She has reached as high as World Number 3 in the World Rankings, but the criticism of Jessica Pegula is that she had not made it past the Quarter Final at any Grand Slam.

Six defeats were suffered in that Round between 2021 and 2023 and Jessica Pegula had been set as a big underdog in her seventh attempt to make a Grand Slam Semi Final when facing Iga Swiatek on Day 10 at the US Open.

Not only did she crack through the glass ceiling, but Pegula did it in such style that she has to be feeling very, very confident right now. It has backed up the form shown in the build up to the US Open after Jessica Pegula won the Canadian Masters and reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters and the American is going to be receiving the lion's share of the support in this Semi Final.

Backing up the Quarter Final win will be a challenge and Pegula will have plenty of respect for Karolina Muchova, who is playing at a very high level herself. They actually played one another at the Cincinnati Masters and the first two sets were very competitive before Pegula was able to pull away for the victory, which will stand her in good stead.

Karolina Muchova was a comfortable winner in the Quarter Final, but she was dealing with some kind of illness and will not have a day of rest between matches to prepare for this contest. That is a potential additional factor at play for this Semi Final, although the overall form during this fortnight has been very impressive.

The lower Ranked player has been producing the stronger serving in this tournament, but Muchova has only had to beat a single top 20 Ranked opponent, while Jessica Pegula has beaten two, including the World Number 1.

It can be difficult to trust Pegula considering the amount of times she has thrown in a really poor performance at the business end of a tournament, while a victory over Iga Swiatek has raised the level of expectation around her. This pressure could be an issue, but the performances over the last month may just give Pegula the confidence to reach the US Open Final on Saturday, although it may take another three sets to get the job done.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-15, + 14.24 Units (82 Units Staked, + 17.37% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 6th June)

There is also the scenario where upsets can turn a tennis draw lopsided and that is something that UEFA may come to understand in the years ahead with their new Knock Out format in the Champions League.

Two upsets on Wednesday has certainly given the end of the Women's French Open that kind of feeling with the first Semi Final likely to send a very strong favourite into Saturday's Final.

Both Jasmine Paolini and Mirra Andreeva have to be given a lot of credit for the runs made, but the winner of Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff is likely going to be adding another Grand Slam to their collection and that may just build further pressure on that Semi Final.

Those two players go up first before the second Semi Finalists both look for a major early achievement in their careers. It should be a good day of tennis for the fans before we get to find out which two players compete for the second Grand Slam of the 2024 season.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Coco Gauff: This is a match up between two of the top three players on the WTA Tour, but the spread is heavily skewed in favour of the World Number 1.

That isn't a massive surprise with this Grand Slam Semi Final being played on the clay courts in Paris, but there is also the match up problem overall for Coco Gauff who has lost ten of her eleven previous matches against Iga Swiatek.

The one win was on a fast court in Cincinnati, but Iga Swiatek got the better of Gauff in a couple of other hard court matches after that and the World Number 1 has won all four previous clay court matches against the American.

The most recent was in Rome in the build up to this French Open and Swiatek was a more comfortable winner than the final 6-4, 6-3 scoreline might have suggested.

It underlines the huge challenge that Coco Gauff faces- her best efforts have led to very one-sided defeats on this surface, while the overall record suggests Iga Swiatek has the perfect blend of attack and defence to give the World Number 3 fits on the court.

Eight of the previous eleven matches competed between these two players would have seen Iga Swiatek cover this line and she is playing at a remarkably high level since the almost upset Second Round win over Naomi Osaka.

Iga Swiatek's real edge is that she is able to control her points behind serve much more effectively than Coco Gauff and that is likely going to be shown up in this Semi Final.

The American does enjoy the clay courts and she is playing well, but that is not enough to compete with Iga Swiatek alone- Coco Gauff is going to have to find something special to find an upset, but it is unlikely and the expected outcome is a routine win for the favourite to lift the trophy for a third time in a row.

Jasmine Paolini-Mirra Andreeva Over 8.5 Match Breaks: The overwhelming feeling was that we were on a collision course between all of the top four players in the World Rankings when it came to the Semi Finals at Roland Garros in 2024. The World Number 1 and World Number 3 cemented their places to face off against one another on Tuesday, but Wednesday proved to be much different.

First up Elena Rybakina was upset by Jasmine Paolini and then an out of sorts Aryna Sabalenka was beaten by teenage prodigy Mirra Andreeva in the second Quarter Final.

So to say this is an unexpected Semi Final is putting it lightly.

However, both Paolini and Andreeva have to be given a lot of credit for the path they have cut through the draw and both are deserving of their place in the final four. Jasmine Paolini has impressed by showing grit and determination to work her way into the top 10 of the World Rankings, while Mirra Andreeva has heaps of potential and seems capable of fulfilling that very quickly.

Tension will be high in this second Semi Final on Thursday and that is not going to be a surprise.

New emotions will have to be contained with the two players a win away from reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final and the only hope is that both are able to free up and play the kind of tennis they have produced in Paris over the last couple of weeks.

Both of these players are comfortable on the red dirt and the return games have been very impressive and that is the main reason this feels like a match that will produce at least nine breaks of serve. Four of the five matches played by Jasmine Paolini has seen that mark surpassed, although it is only the case in two of the five matches played by Mirra Andreeva.

These two met in Madrid and shared out eleven breaks of serve that day in what was a two set win for the younger player and you do have to appreciate how well both Paolini and Andreeva have been returning in this event.

Mirra Andreeva does have the edge when it comes to the serve and that may ultimately be the reason she is able to reach what should be the first of many Grand Slam Finals, but the 17 year old will have to overcome some nerves. The Italian across the net will fight until the match is over and so this could be a back and forth Semi Final with a huge number of breaks of serve for both players.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jasmine Paolini-Mirra Andreeva Over 8.5 Match Breaks @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 19-7, + 15.52 Units (52 Units Staked, + 29.85% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 25th January)

There have been some remarkable results throughout the fortnight at the Australian Open, but plenty of really good tennis too.

On Day 11 we were treated to a couple of top class men's Quarter Final matches, while also seeing a women's Semi Final line up completed which would have had been predicted by very few people before the tournament began.

No one will doubt the run Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have had and the winner of that Semi Final is expected to be a strong favourite in the Final.

But how many would have had Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska coming out of the top half as the other Finalist? At least Zheng reached the US Open Quarter Final and has long been talked about as having massive potential, but Dayana Yastremska's run has really come as a surprise.

She is a former World Number 21, but Yastremska was forced to come through the Qualifiers this year- she had not been past the First Round of a Grand Slam since returning from the ban she had been given after an adverse drugs test. It is a Semi Final that could be nervy for both players and may really come down to which of the two are serving better on the day, although the winner will be an underdog on Saturday in the Final.

Both women's Semi Finals are set to be played on Day 12 at the Australian Open as the tournament winds down and you can read my Picks below.

Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka over 21.5 games: It almost feels like the women's draw should have been re-Seeded considering the amount of upsets we have seen throughout the Australian Open. And so while the top half of the draw is going to give us a first time Grand Slam Finalist, the bottom half has put together a Semi Final between the two players who won their maiden major in 2023.

The Australian Open crown is being defended by Aryna Sabalenka, but Coco Gauff won the US Open by coming from behind to beat the World Number 2 in the Final.

It is perhaps a mental edge the American can take into this Semi Final having struggled in her Quarter Final win over Marta Kostyuk. Prior to that Coco Gauff had been in imperious form on the hard courts, but there were some nerves and the power of her opponent certainly gave Gauff plenty to think about.

Now she has to take on arguably the most powerful player on the WTA Tour and one who has been dominating all that have stood in front of her in Melbourne. There has been little drama for Aryna Sabalenka, but most will feel that there is a massive obstacle for her to overcome if she is going to win a second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.

In a warm up event to the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka crushed all opponents before running into Elena Rybakina in the Final and winning just three games. There is no doubting the quality of her front-running, but Sabalenka has yet to show she can handle someone coming at her and Coco Gauff has a history of doing that in their head to head match ups.

Coco Gauff has the head to head advantage on the hard courts with a 3-2 lead over Aryna Sabalenka, but nothing has come easy and four of the previous five matches between these two on this surface have needed a deciding set.

The 'easiest' win came for Sabalenka in Indian Wells in March 2023, but the rest of the matches have been massively competitive and the numbers have backed that up.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Aryna Sabalenka has tended to have more Break Points than Coco Gauff, but the latter has tended to play those big moments a little more efficiently. That has given her the chance to have the lead in the head to head on the hard courts and it is going to be a huge part of this match.

Aryna Sabalenka's level in this tournament has been historically strong and she is certainly capable of blowing past Coco Gauff as she did in Indian Wells. However, the feeling is that Gauff will grow having come through a tough test in the Quarter Final and showed her Champions mentality, while we have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka need to overcome difficult moments.

There is likely to be a number of close games in the match and both players are Grand Slam Champions now- there will be some nerves knowing the winner is going to be a big favourite in the Women's Final on Saturday and that may mean some twists and turns in a match up that has produced them regularly in the past.

Three sets were needed in the US Open Final and this is another match between these two Slam Champions that could need a deciding set.

Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: The top four names on the WTA Tour have been in and around the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments over the last twelve months, but the women's draws continue to throw up new names making strong runs.

The 2024 Australian Open has proven to be no different and the top half of the draw has really seen a surprising Semi Final match up being set.

Both Dayana Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng were able to win their Quarter Final matches on Day 11 of the tournament and that has meant not having a day of rest to appreciate what they have done. Facing one another will certainly build some tension as both players will look at this Semi Final as a very winnable one, while nerves ahead of the biggest match of their careers is going to be understandable.

It is slightly problematic that Qinwen Zheng played in the second Quarter Final and that she had an hour extra on the court, but it was not such an intense match that she can use that as an excuse if Zheng is unable to make the Final. There has been plenty of positive talk around this player over the last eighteen months to believe Qinwen Zheng had the qualities to win a Grand Slam title, but it has perhaps come a little quicker than anticipated.

That won't matter and it does feel like Zheng is building momentum.

After three less than ideal performances, Qinwen Zheng has certainly picked up her level in her last two wins in the tournament, which will give her confidence. At the same time you cannot argue that the draw was anything but kind to the soon to be top 10 Ranked player and Zheng has not had to beat anyone Ranked higher than Number 54.

Coming into the tournament, Dayana Yastremska was struggling down at World Number 93 and had to come through the Qualifiers, but she will be back inside the top 30 at the end of the Australian Open. The Ukrainian is certainly playing much higher than the current Ranking number next to her name and Yastremska is likely taking inspiration from Emma Raducanu who won the US Open as a Qualifier in 2021.

That run truly came out of left field, but Dayana Yastremska is a former World Number 21 and is hitting the ball very big at the moment. The fact is all of her wins in the main draw at the Australian Open have been against top 50 Ranked opponents and so her numbers look pretty impressive with that in mind.

Both of these girls have served very well and that has allowed them to dictate the tempo of their matches.

Out of the two, Qinwen Zheng has been getting a bit more out of the first serve and is a big ace hitter, but she is also only getting 53% of her first serves in play. Allowing Dayana Yastremska to see a lot of second serves will be a problem considering the Ukrainian has been winning more points on the return compared with Zheng, while she has also had a bit more protection of the second serve.

Nerves are the big 'x factor' that really cannot be determined, but Qinwen Zheng did reach the US Open Quarter Final in September and that may help her.

However, Dayana Yastremska has played with a real freedom and having a bit more time to prepare for the match could be the key to keeping this one close and competitive. It has been a long tournament for the Qualifier and conditions will be different in the evening compared with the Quarter Final being played in the day, but Yastremska looks more tested and that may be the big advantage she has over Qinwen Zheng, who is facing a significantly tougher test than at any other time in Melbourne this week.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 21-46, - 55.20 Units (134 Units Staked, - 41.19% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2023 (June 8th)

The final eight players left standing at the French Open will all have the smell of a Grand Slam title in their nostrils, but this is when the tough work has to be completed.

Handling the occasion is as much a factor as the ability to hit a ball over a net and I do think that is where the two Grand Slam Champions left in the women's tournament have an edge over Semi Final opponents and look on course for a big Final on Sunday. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have won the last two Grand Slam tournaments and are the top two Ranked players in the World with the winner of the tournament going into Wimbledon with the top Ranking next to their name.

Overlooking Karolina Muchova and Beatriz Haddad Maia would be a mistake, but the top two Seeds are big favourites and it is hard to make a case to oppose them from what we have seen in the French Open so far.

We also have a very good looking Semi Final line up to look forward to on Friday in the men's tournament and most will be anticipating the huge showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, but I don't think either Casper Ruud or Alexander Zverev will mind too much about that.

It was the worst day of the two weeks by some distance on Wednesday with all four selections failing to get over the line- I should have known it was going to be a tough day as soon as Ons Jabeur failed to take her Break Point chances at the end of the second set, which would have given her the chance to serve for a place in the Semi Final and for the cover, but that was just one of the small margins that ended up hurting on the day.

Alexander Zverev missed out on a 0-40 position to close out the third set of his match, which would have put him in a strong position to cover, while Holger Rune failed to turn up for an hour and wasn't quite able to climb the mountain.

The day hurt for the Picks, but the tournament is still in a profitable position with four days to go and a chance to get the numbers moving back in a positive direction.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Karolina Muchova: This is going to be a very interesting Semi Final with two players trying to impose contrasting styles on the other as they look to earn a place in the Final of the second Grand Slam of the 2023 season.

Most fans will know all about the power that Aryna Sabalenka possesses and the World Number 2 is going to want to overwhelm any opponent that steps on the court with her. It has been a telling factor in her wins so far in Paris and Sabalenka is a very comfortable clay court player, even if the assumption is that the faster surfaces would be her favourite.

Her game plan is going to be pretty easy to figure out, but stopping Aryna Sabalenka from doing what she wants on the court is a completely different proposition. It has proven too much for her opponents so far this week, but Karolina Muchova may be able to head into this Semi Final feeling her slice and dice style could at least disrupt the higher Ranked opponent.

This has been a very strong tournament for Karolina Muchova who was Unseeded when it began, but who will be back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings when those are released next Monday. Her two early wins were tough, but Muchova has built her confidence the longer she has spent in Paris and the serve has been an effective weapon for the Czech player.

There is no doubt that Karolina Muchova is going to have to serve at a very high level to win this match and she is going to be up against an Aryna Sabalenka who has not returned as well as she would have liked in her last two matches. Some of that is down to the defensive strengths of both Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina to handle her power, but both of those players also had to save a number of Break Points and I do think Karolina Muchova will be under more threat from the Sabalenka return than she has faced in this tournament.

Getting as many first serves into play as possible will be a big help for Karolina Muchova, but her second serve is likely going to be attacked and that will put some pressure on the Czech's own return game.

So far in this French Open event, Karolina Muchova has been able to exert some control on the return, but it may be much more difficult against the Sabalenka serve and I think that will eventually break down Muchova.

I actually admire Karolina Muchova and for all she gets out of her tennis and this is not a player that is beaten easily very often.

However, it feels like her serve is going to be a bit more vulnerable than Aryna Sabalenka's serve and ultimately it may be asking too much for the Karolina Muchova return to keep her in this match once the World Number 2 gets motoring.

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Beatriz Haddad Maia: Any player that is able to come from a set down to win Grand Slam matches in three consecutive Rounds has to be hugely admired. Beatriz Haddad Maia has been able to do that in her wins over Ekaterina Alexandrova, Sara Sorribes Tormo and Ons Jabeur and the Brazilian has been able to hold her tennis together when the pressurised moments have come up.

In her Quarter Final win on Wednesday, Beatriz Haddad Maia saved two Break Points in her last service game of the second set as she was almost heading out of the French Open, but she turned the match around against Wimbledon and US Open Runner Up Ons Jabeur in very impressive fashion.

Being able to run through the final set as quickly as she did does mean Beatriz Haddad Maia should have been able to keep some energy in the tank, but this is not an ideal situation for her. After all of the tennis she has been forced to play, Beatriz Haddad Maia will not have a day off between matches to recover and now faces the ultimate challenge on a clay court.

Iga Swiatek has not really been pushed too hard in the run to another French Open Semi Final and even her win over Coco Gauff was more comfortable than the 6/4, 6/2 scoreline might have suggested. While the young player deserves credit for at least giving Swiatek something to think about, the World Number 1 was comfortably the superior player on the court and I do think it is going to be very difficult from preventing Iga Swiatek winning a third French Open in four years.

Despite her very strong wins in Paris, Iga Swiatek will know that she still needs to get a bit more out of the serve if she is going to defend the title she won twelve months ago. She did produce a big serving day in the win over Gauff on Wednesday, and Iga Swiatek continues to exert her will over her opponents with her strong return game.

Iga Swiatek has a very strong record against left handed players on the Tour too having compiled a 24-4 mark against them, but it should be noted that one of the defeats was to Beatriz Haddad Maia last year in the Canadian Masters.

That has to give the underdog a boost in confidence, but Haddad Maia is going to have to lift her level considerably to challenge Iga Swiatek on the clay courts and she is not expected to get as much help as the likes of Jabeur and Sorribes Tormo have given her at key moments in those matches.

A big hitting, aggressive player like Beatriz Haddad Maia is dangerous with the kind of start she is getting on the handicap, but I do think it will be tough for her to overcome some of the prolonged stretches of below par tennis we have seen from her in this Grand Slam. Unlike some of her recent opponents, Iga Swiatek is not likely to drop her level and let the Brazilian back into the match and I think the World Number 1 is able to come through with a wide win.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 38-29, + 5.98 Units (134 Units Staked, + 4.46% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2021 (June 10th)

Day 12 of the French Open is reserved for the Women's Semi Finals and both are going to be played back to back on the main show court in Paris.

It should be a decent day after four surprising names have made their way into the Semi Final and all four should be full of belief that they can pick up the title on Saturday.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Tamara Zidansek: Both of these players spent well over two hours on the court on Tuesday and both were rewarded with a first ever Grand Slam Semi Final.

It has been a long time coming for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who has lost multiple Grand Slam Quarter Finals through her long career as she has perhaps failed to reach the kind of level some had predicted for her. That isn't to say it has been a bad career, but a peak World Ranking of Number 13 and failure to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final before this tournament in Paris is perhaps not as successful as Pavlyuchenkova looked like she could be when dominating the junior world.

Breaking through the Quarter Final barrier in a long match against friend and Doubles partner Elena Rybakina may give Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova a 'nothing to lose' attitude for the remainder of the French Open, but there is some pressure on her. The Russian will go into this Semi Final as a considerable favourite which is perhaps not a surprise when you think of how far out of left field this run has been for Tamara Zidansek.

The Slovenian has played in eight Grand Slam tournament main draws before the French Open and she had won a total of three matches, but Zidansek has won five in a row in Paris and battled through a tough Quarter Final to take her place in the final four. She has played the big points really well and Tamara Zidansek has won a number of matches as the underdog which will give her a lot of confidence going into this match.

Tamara Zidansek certainly has the edge when it comes to the movement around the court and that can be very important on a clay court, but she will have to serve well to keep Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at bay.

In this tournament, it is Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who has impressed more consistently with her return and she has broken at least five times in each of her five wins. Most impressively, the Russian has created at least ten break points in each of her last four matches and that kind of pressure will be tough for Tamara Zidansek to deal with, especially as she has given up more break points than she has created in each of her last four wins.

Both players have battled hard in the tournament, but you would think there will be a few more cheaper points coming from the Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova racquet and that can be a key in a match that is going to see plenty of nerves from both sides of the court. A real opportunity to not only reach a Grand Slam Final, but also perhaps win a Major tournament will be heavy on the minds and I think Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has more to prove in that regard as she could see this as a last chance to play in a showcase match in her career.

However, I think the experience has to help her and I think Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has been playing the superior return tennis in the French Open which is going to be key to the outcome of the first Semi Final on Thursday. There will be swings in momentum, but I think Pavlyuchenkova will have a little too much for a solid Tamara Zidansek who has seen her serve attacked regularly and perhaps just had the fine margins on her side so far in Paris.

Barbora Krejcikova + 3.5 games v Maria Sakkari: All four Women's Quarter Finals were won by the underdog and that means the defending Champion Iga Swiatek has been beaten.

Once again a new Grand Slam Champion is going to be announced on Saturday as the top of the Women's game continues to be tightly contested with many players capable of putting seven wins together to win a Major tournament. The winner of this Semi Final is likely going to be the favourite to win the title and both Barbora Krejcikova and Maria Sakkari will be feeling very good about their tennis after their wins on Day 11.

Unlike the other two Semi Finalists, Barbora Krejcikova and Maria Sakkari had to play their Semi Final on Wednesday rather than Tuesday, but I don't think that is going to be a major factor. Fitness should not be an issue that hurts either player and I do think there is every chance that the underdog could win this one outright.

Maria Sakkari will have grabbed the headlines for her strong win over Iga Swiatek, although you do have to wonder how much an injury was a factor for the defending Champion. It has continued what has been a strong tournament for Greek tennis, while Sakkari has been playing at a really good level at the French Open which makes her dangerous.

The serve has been a key factor for Sakkari through the five wins she has had in Paris, but that has only helped her return game with more break points created than her opponent in each Round of the tournament. It is encouraging tennis from a player who needed a break after a relatively low-key clay court season and makes the run to the Semi Final even more impressive.

It will be difficult to match her level from the win over Iga Swiatek though and Maria Sakkari will be well aware of how improved Barbora Krejcikova is as a Singles player. The clay court season has been a strong one for the Czech player that flies under the radar somewhat behind the likes of Karolina Pliskova, Karolina Muchova and Petra Kvitova as the top names from that nation, but Barbora Krejcikova showed a strong mentality to beat Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final in the manner she did.

There has been a pretty good consistency with the serve, but Barbora Krejcikova knows there may be more to come from that shot if she is going to surprisingly go on and win the French Open. However, she has been really effective on the return and much of this match is going to come down to which of these players is able to take control of rallies behind heavy groundstrokes.

The 2-0 head to head in favour of Barbora Krejcikova includes a solid win over Maria Sakkari on the Dubai hard courts earlier this year, a match in which she dominated the break points and was ultimately a comfortable winner. That will help, but both players will need to get on top of their nerves knowing a huge opportunity is in front of them in the same manner the two players in the first Semi Final are going to have to manage.

Both players have shown enough on the clay courts to believe they can win, but this handicap looks a touch too big in favour of the underdog considering how well Barbora Krejcikova has played here in Paris and on the clay in general over the last couple of years. She can certainly match Maria Sakkari who will have to get over the emotions of a big upset win against the defending Champion and has to deal with the expectations that come after a win of that magnitude.

It certainly feels like a handicap will be difficult to overcome even if Maria Sakkari wins the match as I expect Barbora Krejcikova to push her all the way. The underdog is certainly capable of winning this Semi Final at her best too and the games are tempting enough to get behind.

MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

French Open Update: 47-41, + 0.70 Units (176 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

US Open Day 11 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 10th)

The US Open is down to the final four in both the Men's and Women's draws and the change in recent years means we now have the Semi Final matches of both tournaments played on separate days.

This at least allows players to have as much time as they need to recover if they make the Final rather than in the recent past when the second Semi Final winner would be under immense pressure to be as fit as possible for the Final.

It was a particular concern for the Men's Final, but we shouldn't hear any excuses now.

From what we have seen it would still be a real surprise to see a new Grand Slam Champion in the Women's tournament with three of the four making the Semi Final being previous winners. Two have won at the US Open before, but the Men's tournament has shaped up very differently with all four remaining in the draw looking to win a maiden Slam and perhaps then be able to see their own careers move upwards significantly.

On Day 11 it is the turn of the Women as the Semi Final matches are played back to back on Ashe from Midnight United Kingdom time. I will be keeping an eye on those matches in the background, although the main focus may be on the NBA PlayOffs and the start of the 2020 NFL season.

The second Semi Final certainly looks more intriguing than the first on paper, but all four players left in the draw will be confident in their own abilities having won five matches at the US Open already.

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Jennifer Brady: The first of the Women's Semi Finals looks like being a big hitting encounter as Naomi Osaka takes on underdog Jennifer Brady. While Osaka is a former two time Grand Slam Champion, Brady had never been beyond the Fourth Round at a Grand Slam in her carer and that experience could be key.

You can't ignore the fact that Naomi Osaka has only ever twice reached the Quarter Final at any Grand Slam, but she clearly builds the confidence as both times she has gone on to win the tournament. The scoreline might not have shown it in the last two Rounds, but Osaka has been dominant in the wins over Anett Kontaveit and Shelby Rogers and looks to be peaking towards Saturday's Final.

The serve has been a potent weapon for Naomi Osaka and she has only dropped serve twice in the last four matches having dropped it twice in the First Round win. In the last two matches she has only faced a single break point and is winning at least 76% of points behind the serve in each match which gives her the freedom to attack the return.

While I would think the serve would be tested by Jennifer Brady and the ability she has shown on the return so far in this tournament, I also have to accept that the American has simply not faced a serve like the one she will see on Thursday. Caroline Garcia is arguably the best server she has faced in the tournament, but Naomi Osaka is another step up from that level in her current form and I do think it will be difficult for Brady to really get her teeth into this serve.

That is going to put some pressure on the home hope in her bid to reach her maiden Grand Slam Final, while Jennifer Brady is also going to have to deal with her nerves. She did win a title in Lexington last month, but Brady is not someone that is overly familiar with the business end of tournaments and admitted that she was having to deal with some nerves in her Quarter Final win.

There is a big serve that Brady can look to rely on, but in the last couple of Rounds it has been one that opponents have been able to get a read on. With Naomi Osaka likely going to be in control of her own service games, I do think the Japanese star can hit with some freedom on the return and has shown she is very strong in that aspect of her game.

Naomi Osaka has been creating plenty of break point chances, but she needs to be a little more productive when the chances come up. You can't really allow Jennifer Brady to hang around as Osaka did with the last two opponents faced, but I do favour the higher Ranked player to work her way through and most likely in two sets.

It has been a very good tournament for Jennifer Brady and the last month will have given her confidence, but I do think Naomi Osaka will wear her down with the pressure of her own serve making Brady go for a little more. Eventually I would think Osaka is going to have the majority of break points and she can crack through the Brady defences and cover what looks like a considerable mark.

Serena Williams-Victoria Azarenka over 22.5 games: So suffice to say I might have gotten the Victoria Azarenka-Elise Mertens Quarter Final a little wrong- instead of the underdog showing any kind of grit, it was one way traffic for Azarenka who only dropped a single game to take her place in the US Open Semi Final.

The Belgian is going to face some serious questions internally about her performance on the day as she continues to be battered by the better players on the Tour on the hard courts, but overall it was a productive month for Mertens.

But onto the actual Semi Finalist.

Over the last couple of weeks there has really been a turn in the Azarenka form and she is playing at a very high level here at the US Open. Even then I was somewhat surprised that she would be set as the favourite against Serena Williams if only for the sole reason that I thought the layers would continue to overrate the American chasing her 24th Grand Slam title.

Serena Williams needed three sets for the third match in a row and it was also the second time in this tournament that she has had to come from a set behind to move through the Round. There is clearly a decline in the levels being produced by Serena Williams, but the raw numbers don't factor in a Champion's heart which has seen Williams come back from difficult positions already in the last eleven days.

She is going to need to dig in and use her aura to help overcome Victoria Azarenka, but there should be no real fear from the other side of the court despite the largely one-sided head to head record. They last met in March 2019 when Serena Williams was able to beat Victoria Azarenka in straight sets on the Indian Wells hard courts, but it was not an easy match for her and I would suggest that Williams is not at the level she was back then and Azarenka looks to be playing as well as she has at any point since returning to the Tour.

Three of the last four meetings between these players at Grand Slam level have gone the distance and even though Azarenka looks to be playing a lot better than Serena Williams here this week, I would not be surprised if we see this one going three sets too.

The strengths of the players look to be going against each other with Serena's serve coming up big at key times, while the Azarenka return has been crucial to her winning a title ahead of the US Open and her run here. The Azarenka serve always feels more vulnerable, but Williams has not been returning as well as she would have liked and I do think the match is going to be a competitive one.

We have seen enough from Serena Williams to think she won't go down easily if she does, but I also think Victoria Azarenka is playing well enough to not lose hope even if she falls behind. The Belarusian has already come from a set down once in this tournament and I would be disappointed if this Semi Final doesn't have the twists and turns that the previous US Open Finals between these two players have had.

It is a big number of total games, but, if the match goes the distance as I believe it can, it should be one that is surpassed.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Serena Williams-Victoria Azarenka Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 41-35, + 1.79 Units (152 Units Staked, + 1.18% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2018 (July 12th)

The England World Cup Semi Final is being played on Wednesday evening which means I am covering the Women's Semi Finals at Wimbledon merely hours after the Semi Final line up was completed.

I think it looks a fascinating day for the ladies who will be playing on Centre Court and I think there will be some fun tennis for the fans to enjoy as the nation wakes up from either seeing England reach their first World Cup Final in 52 years or recovering from another Semi Final disappointment.

Football fever has no doubt reached the players at Wimbledon this year too, but the focus of the four ladies playing on Thursday will be in making sure they are playing again this Saturday.


Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: A lot of people have been criticising the women's tournament at Wimbledon this summer after all of the top ten Seeds were beaten before the Quarter Finals. Yet here we have a Semi Final featuring two players who have won Grand Slam titles before albeit still looking for the first Wimbledon crown.

Jelena Ostapenko continues her rise in the women's game having won the French Open in 2017 and followed that up with her first Wimbledon Quarter Final twelve months ago. A dominant win over Dominika Cibulkova has helped her surpass that achievement to make the Semi Final here and there is a lot to admire about her game.

The Latvian is capable of getting very hot on a tennis court which means hitting winner after winner and even a defensive master like Angelique Kerber would struggle to keep Ostapenko at bay if the latter is feeling her game. She can crack winners straight off the return of serve and is able to hit down the line and cross-court without losing any pace on the ball.

Ostapenko is yet to drop a set at Wimbledon and she has an underrated serve when she is getting the first serve rhythm down. That makes her a massive danger to anyone she plays on any given day, but the all or nothing approach can also see Ostapenko produce a tonne of unforced errors.

Unforced errors is not the business in which Angelique Kerber operates and she has the experience of being a multiple time Slam winner as well as a former Wimbledon Finalist. There were still nerves towards the end of the Quarter Final win over Daria Kasatkina as Kerber has had a difficult eighteen months or so during which time she has struggled to always find her best tennis after a career best 2016.

However Kerber has been approaching her best for a number of months and coming out of a clay court season that doesn't suit her should have given the German confidence. The way she has handled her nerves towards the end of the last two matches will also stand her in good stead and I think Kerber's superior grass court tennis history will help her in those difficult moments against a free hitting spirit like Ostapenko.

This match is going to be close and much will depend on the racquet of the Latvian which makes it tough to go against her. The recent loss to Agnieszka Radwanska on the grass courts has to be the blueprint for Kerber to follow as Ostapenko struggled to get enough out of her serve to challenge the former top ten player.

My feeling is that Kerber's defensive skills will do enough to frustrate Ostapenko into going for a little more and that should see her unforced errors creep upwards. We did see how Ostapenko was tough to stop at the French Open in 2017 when she got hot like she is looking at Wimbledon, but the grass courts should give Kerber the edge and I like the German to extract enough errors to win this match and cover the number.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Julie Goerges: After all the questions about Serena Williams should have been Seeded or not at the Wimbledon tournament, some have now wondered why she wasn't Seeded much higher than her current 25 number.

Once again Serena Williams looks to be the player to beat on the grass of SW19 after coming through some difficult moments against Camila Giorgi in the Quarter Final. She will be facing another big hitting player on Thursday in the Semi Final, but Giorgi really is someone who is one of a kind and Serena Williams has been serving very well for the majority of the last ten days.

That makes it a big ask for Julia Goerges to find a way to get closer to her having lost all three previous matches against Serena Williams including on the clay courts of the French Open six weeks ago. On that day Goerges did break the Williams serve for the first time, but her limited returning game on the grass courts doesn't offer a lot of encouragement for me in this one.

Goerges has also spent a lot more time on the court than Serena Williams at Wimbledon having needed eighteen games in a deciding set to see off Barbora Strycova and then needing three sets to beat Kiki Bertens in the Quarter Final. That is a big emotional effort for a player who had a surprisingly poor record at Wimbledon and on the grass in general before this run.

With a big serve and heavy forehand you would have thought Goerges would be happy on this surface, but that has not been the case for the majority of her career. Early losses at Wimbledon became the norm for her and I think the first Grand Slam Semi Final is also going to be playing on the nerves and that is before she thinks of the opponent she is up against.

If Goerges is able to serve up to the standards she has set she will be dangerous, but I have a feeling she is going to be a little tight especially if Williams is able to get a couple of big hits off early. Serena's return game has not been up to the level she would have liked, but she is serving so well that players are going to feel the pressure to stay with her and I think that will contribute to Goerges cracking here.

The German has not had the best returning numbers on the grass courts in her career and now faces the best serve in the women's game. I think that builds the scoreboard pressure and Serena Williams will be able to find a similar win to the one she produced against Goerges at the French Open and that will be good enough to cover this number for the American.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2017 (July 13th)

This feels like a tournament that is going to be one which has come really close to some strong numbers, but one that ultimately comes close, but not close enough.

Seeing Simona Halep fall as an 8-1 pick to win the Fourth Quarter in the Ladies draw was a disappointment considering how close she came to beating Johanna Konta. That coupled with both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic failing to win their Quarter of the draw despite being big favourites in their Quarter Final matches makes it tough, and even more difficult to take when you see injury cost both Murray and Djokovic.

With Angelique Kerber also out, it was down to Marin Cilic and Venus Williams to keep the outright picks alive and both still have a chance to produce some strong numbers for me. Cilic is already a winner in the Second Quarter having come in as a 4-1 shot prior to the tournament, while Venus Williams was a big price to win the tournament and has reached the Semi Final.

It won't be easy for Venus Williams when she faces home hope Johanna Konta, while Magdalena Rybarikova takes on Garbine Muguruza in the other Semi Final. Rybarikova came into the tournament way outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and is on the brink of making the Saturday Final in what has been a fairytale run and the two Semi Final matches both look decent on Thursday.


Magdalena Rybarikova + 3.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: There is no doubt that Magdalena Rybarikova is going to feel the nerves of playing in a Grand Slam Semi Final, even though the Slovakian has shown real grit throughout this fortnight. Confidence is clearly soaring for Rybarikova who has had a tremendous grass court season, although it is not a surprise that she has been set as the underdog in this one.

She had never been beyond the Third Round at any of the Grand Slams, but you would never have guessed it with the way Rybarikova has played at key moments throughout Wimbledon. The win over Karolina Pliskova shows that Rybarikova is not afraid to take on the big names either and I do think she can give Muguruza plenty to think about.

The numbers back that up with Rybarikova returning as well as anyone left in the draw and she has dealt with the big serves of Pliskova and Coco Vandeweghe well enough to believe she can have success against the powerful Muguruza delivery. Rybarikova has won 40% of the return points against Pliskova and 46% against Vandeweghe, while backing that up with strong serving of her own.

Muguruza is very capable of blowing players away on the grass as a former Wimbledon Finalist, but I am not sure the Spaniard hasn't been riding her luck at times. The win over Svetlana Kuznetsova in the Quarter Final looks like a routine one, but it would have been a different story if the latter had been as clinical with her chances as Muguruza was on the day.

The flashier shots are likely to come off the Muguruza racquet with the big hitting winners very impressive and the more memorable shots you will see. However she has been under the cosh in her last two matches and Rybarikova has shown she can take the chances when they come her way throughout the grass court season which could see her surprise by reaching the Final.

The last two matches for Muguruza can be summed up by her going 6/11 on break points converted compared with her opponents going 3/13 and I do think Rybarikova is playing well enough to keep this one close at the least. Generally Rybarikova has served very well during this tournament and that backs up her performances in pre-Wimbledon grass court events too.

With that in mind I do think Rybarikova can take a set in this one which will give her every chance of covering with the games she is being given. It will be an upset, but I think Rybarikova can beat Muguruza on Thursday in what looks a very close Semi Final as long as the Slovakian can keep her nerves under control.


Venus Williams v Johanna Konta: Anyone who has been on the outright picks that I put up prior to the tournament beginning may want to lay off some of the Venus Williams price ahead of this Semi Final. Others may just want to let the pick ride and that is going to be a decision that each individual has to make for themselves.

This might not be the ultimate test at Wimbledon it once was, but beating Venus Williams on the famous green lawns in SW19 has remained one of the toughest matches anyone can play. That is what is in front of Johanna Konta on Thursday and I have to admit I am a little surprised that the British player is favoured to win the match.

She might be a lot younger than Venus Williams, but Konta has played three really tough matches at Wimbledon already and I have to think that accumulated fatigue is going to play a part at some point. I can't see Konta continuing to win the big points as she has done with the numbers both have produced so far this fortnight and that is a key reason I believe Venus Williams will get the better of her.

Konta did beat Williams at the Miami Masters on her way to the biggest title of her career, but Williams did snap a run of three consecutive losses to Konta when beating her in the Rome Masters. Playing on the grass is also a surface on which Williams has thrived much more than Konta and I do think the American former World Number 1 has been serving at a pretty high level which gives her every chance of earning the 'upset' in this one.

As well as Konta has done to get through the draw, she has been relying on the serve to be firing and I think that is going to be tested by Venus Williams. The latter has been returning effectively throughout the tournament and nullified some of the big hitters she has faced with her strength on the grass courts and the ability Williams has shown on the return.

The Konta serve has been a serious weapon for her and she has beaten Williams enough times to believe she can do it again. Wins over the American at the Australian Open and in Miami will give her confidence, but I think Konta is perhaps not as strong on the return as Williams and accumulated fatigue as well as the build up of pressure may just be the telling factors in this one.

While the media will be dreaming of a Konta Wimbledon win forty years after Virginia Wade, I think Venus Williams will get the better of her in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Magdalena Rybarikova + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Venus Williams @ 2.05 Bet Victor (0 Units)*

*Having picked Venus Williams each-way in the outright picks, I do think Venus Williams is still capable of winning this match on the numbers. However I won't be putting any units on it having Williams in the outright picks.

Wimbledon Update: 43-46 (6 Voids), - 4.24 Units (173 Units Staked, - 2.45% Yield)