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Showing posts with label Wimbledon Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wimbledon Picks. Show all posts

Saturday, 12 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Men's Final (Sunday 13th July)

The Ladies Final proved to be something of a damp squib, but Wimbledon comes to a close with the top two of the Men's game facing one another for a second Slam Final in succession.

Suffice to say it would be a huge surprise if this Final is nearly as one-sided as the Ladies Final on Saturday, especially with both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz looking in strong form.


Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz over 40.5 games: Fans of Men's Tennis have long hoped that a new rivalry would form at the end of the 'Big Three' era and that hope has long been on Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz pushing one another forward.

For the second Grand Slam in a row, Sinner and Alcaraz will face off for the title and the pair have combined to win each of the last six Grand Slam titles with the number seven consecutive Slam to be held by one of the two to be decided on Sunday.

There is no doubt that these are the best two players in the world and it'll take a brave person to back the field against either of these two players when it comes to the US Open in September. Both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have won three Slams since the Australian Open in 2024 and no one will have forgotten the French Open Final played last month, which was won by Alcaraz in five sets having saved Championship Points and recovered from 2-0 behind in sets.

It is a victory that will give Carlos Alcaraz the mental edge having beaten his biggest rival in five consecutive matches, including in each two Grand Slams. Both victories have been at the French Open, but the Spaniard has also beaten Jannik Sinner at the US Open in 2022.

Being a two time defending Wimbledon Champion means he is a rightful favourite, but it is ironic that Jannik Sinner's sole Grand Slam victory over Carlos Alcaraz came at this tournament in the Fourth Round in 2021.

Jannik Sinner will have some regret about the two French Open losses considering the way the matches played out, especially the Final last month, and the World Number 1 has been dealing with an elbow issue. It is going to add to the challenge, but the performances in the last two Rounds have been very impressive and the Italian will feel a strong serving day will give him every chance of winning this title for the first time and ending the Carlos Alcaraz reign as Champion in SW19.

After that epic Final in Paris, all four of the previous Grand Slam meetings between these players have lasted at least four sets, while the last three have all ended in five sets.

It would be a massive surprise if there are not swings in this Men's Final with both players capable of going through periods of domination.

The fluctuation in the Carlos Alcaraz performances are perhaps higher/lower compared with a steadier Jannik Sinner, but the highs have seen the Spaniard play at an exceptional level. However, it is the lows where Sinner can take advantage and the feeling is that this could be another brilliant Final to watch.

Four sets have to be expected- a straight sets victory for either would be a huge surprise- and you cannot rule out another epic developing here.

Both have been serving very well in the last couple of Rounds and so tie-breakers could be in play again, as they were in the French Open Final, and backing the two best players in the world to combine for enough games to cover this total games line looks to be the right approach to take.

Picking a winner is incredibly tough, but my narrow lean may be with Jannik Sinner to find a way to end his losing run to Carlos Alcaraz and head into the US Open looking to win three of the four Slams played this season.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 6-4, + 2.18 Units (20 Units Staked, + 10.90% Yield)

Friday, 11 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 12th July)

At the time of writing, the Men's Semi Final matches have yet to be completed, but the Ladies Final is know and will take centre stage on Saturday, albeit at a later start time than usual.

That may help as the main heat of the day is avoided and it should be a decent Final between two players who may not have felt they were going to be involved on the final Saturday when the tournament began.


Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: Anyone who picked this as the Ladies Final at the start of the Wimbledon tournament would deserve a lot of praise, but to most, it is a surprising match up to determine the Champion of the third Grand Slam of the season.

Out of the two players, there is no doubt that former World Number 1 Iga Swiatek has the experience having won multiple French Open titles and also the US Open. She would become the only active player on the Tour that has won Grand Slams on all three surfaces if she can pick up the title on Saturday, although the run has surprised considering how little success Iga Swiatek has previously enjoyed at Wimbledon.

Prior to this season, Iga Swiatek had only reached the Quarter Final once as her best effort, but she has looked completely at ease on the surface having played well at Bad Homburg in the last warm up event on the grass.

The only 'negative' to her run through to the Final is that Iga Swiatek has only beaten one player Ranked inside the top 20 and you do have to wonder if that is going to be a potential problem. Yes, she has not really been pushed by opponents and the quality behind the serve has been really impressive, but it could also mean Swiatek is not as well prepared to play the Final as she would have been by beating stronger players.

Being prepared to face some of the best feels more comfortable for Amanda Anisimova having already seen off the World Number 1 in the Semi Final.

Strong performances on the grass ahead of Wimbledon will have given the American a lot of confidence, and that has shone through at tough moments with the win over Sabalenka meaning Amanda Anisimova has needed three sets in half of the six victories put on the board. However, that also means she will not be too concerned if this match gets tight having shown her character throughout the last fortnight.

It should be noted that Amanda Anisimova had enjoyed a pretty comfortable draw before the win over Aryna Sabalenka, but had made harder work of her run compared with her opponent in this Final.

There is a lot to like about the Anisimova game- she has a decent serve and aggressive groundstrokes which makes her dangerous on the return. The margins have felt tighter in her wins though and it is going to be tougher for Amanda Anisimova if she is not able to get plenty of first serves in play and try and shift the pressure onto Iga Swiatek.

The latter has been serving really well and looks to be about as comfortable as she has ever looked on the grass.

With the superior experience of Grand Slam Finals, Iga Swiatek may not make the mistakes that Aryna Sabalenka felt she did in the Semi Final and that could see her get the better of the lower Ranked player.

MY PICK: Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 5-4, + 0.52 Units (18 Units Staked, + 2.87% Yield)

Thursday, 10 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2025 (Friday 11th July)

The Ladies Final has been set and you could argue that both Finalists are something of a surprise- Amanda Anisimova has shown some form on the grass this summer, as has Iga Swiatek, but neither has had a big impact at Wimbledon before and the winner is set to become the latest 'surprising' Champion here.

Before that, we have two huge Men's Semi Finals featuring three of the top four players and the seven time Champion Novak Djokovic.

No matter which permutation we get for the Final, it should bring together a really positive end to the third Grand Slam of the season and the attention will soon turn to the hard courts.

We do have some clay court events and some early hard court tournaments beginning right after Wimbledon concludes in what is a relentless Tour, but the majority of the biggest names will be thinking about the Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati before the US Open gets underway next month.

However, the focus for those left playing on the grass is picking up a Major trophy this weekend and you can read my thoughts on the two Semi Final matches taking place on Friday below this.


Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Tennis fans, especially fans of the Men's game, will feel a new era is being ushered in, although one where the young players are still growing.

You cannot dismiss the Grand Slam titles that have already been won by Carlos Alcaraz and he is the two time defending Champion at Wimbledon, but comparing his run in 2025 compared with the way dominant Champions like Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer would move through the draws is night and day.

Yes, he keeps winning and that has to be respected- nineteen wins in a row have been produced at Wimbledon and there is a growing aura around Carlos Alcaraz, which makes it tough to face him. However, the likes of Fabio Fognini, Jan-Lennard Struff and Andrey Rublev have taken sets from the World Number 2 and the Spaniard was under a bit of pressure when playing at Queen's Club, although ultimately winning the title.

The manner of the win over Cameron Norrie will certainly have the Alcaraz fans feeling much better about their man and he is deserving of being a strong favourite even when taking on a very comfortable grass court player in Taylor Fritz. Titles have been won on the surface and the American has reached the Wimbledon Semi Final for the first time, although, much like Carlos Alcaraz, it has been far from a straight-forward pathway through the draw.

In some ways Taylor Fritz was fortunate to come through in four sets against Karen Khachanov in the Quarter Final and there is a lot of pressure on the World Number 5 to make sure he is serving at his very best. Anything less would see him in a tough position trying to win rallies against someone who is superior on the ground, and the match up has proven to be a difficult one for Taylor Fritz in the past.

This is the first meeting on grass, but Carlos Alcaraz holds two hard court wins over the American and neither was very competitive with Taylor Fritz restricted to winning 59% of points behind serve. Obviously that is a number that will need to be improved dramatically if Taylor Fritz is going to threaten the upset, but there is also the pressure of knowing how important it is to get plenty of first serves in play.

In the two meetings on the Tour, the Fritz second serve has been attacked relentlessly by Carlos Alcaraz, while the defending Champion has been picking up his own level behind the serve in the last two Rounds.

The Semi Final is going to be much more competitive than the Carlos Alcaraz Quarter Final win over Cameron Norrie, but there is this feeling that the defending Champion will begin to pull away from his opponent again.

He has not been at his best in this tournament, but Taylor Fritz has had plenty of moments where he has been struggling and Carlos Alcaraz can beat him for a third straight time, while also reaching the Wimbledon Final for a third year in a row.


Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: An injury scare during the Fourth Round 'win' over Grigor Dimitrov had some wondering if Jannik Sinner would play in the Quarter Final, but he did and he was a strong winner over Ben Shelton.

The Italian has been given a second chance in the tournament having looked all but out against Grigor Dimitrov with the World Number 1 trailing 2-0 in sets and struggling to really get to grips with what the veteran was producing. A really unfortunate pectoral injury saw Dimitrov forced to pull out of that match and there is every reason to believe Jannik Sinner is even more dangerous than usual if he feels he is playing with 'house money'.

A four set was produced by Novak Djokovic in his own Quarter Final, but it was a tougher than expected match against Flavio Cobolli and a slip in what proved to be the last game of the match has raised some doubt about the seven time Champion's health.

It would be a surprise if Novak Djokovic is not able to go on Friday, but he will need to be at full health as he looks to secure yet another Wimbledon Final spot. Winning a 25th Grand Slam is the goal for Djokovic and he remains one of the top grass court players in the world, but Carlos Alcaraz has beaten him twice in a row at Wimbledon and the former World Number 1 has lost his last four matches against Jannik Sinner.

None of those have been on the grass, but the Italian crushed Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open in 2024 and that court is the one where the latter is at his very best. Last month Jannik Sinner secured a straight sets win over Novak Djokovic at the French Open to reach the Final and the mental edge may just be with the current World Number 1.

Of course Sinner has not had the same type of success on the grass compared with Novak Djokovic and was beaten by the latter in 2022 and 2023 right here at Wimbledon. However, the second of those defeats felt very unfortunate for Sinner who had played well, but could not take his Break Point chances compared with a clinical Novak Djokovic and that ultimately cost him the match.

Both will appreciate the importance of serving well in this match, but it has felt like Sinner has been a touch more consistent in this part of his tennis.

Novak Djokovic has to take encouragement from the stronger return numbers he has put on the board at the tournament, but that is also partly down to the match ups he has faced and getting into the Jannik Sinner serve is a completely different test, even for the best return player of all time.

In the recent head to head, Novak Djokovic has really had a tough time dealing with the power and ability to back up the serve that Jannik Sinner has been able to produce. The scoreboard pressure has made it tough on the veteran and it is going to take something pretty special for Novak Djokovic to win this match.

The Sinner elbow issue has to be watched in what could be a longer, drawn out match compared with the big hitting power battle he had with Ben Shelton. However, Jannik Sinner's movement and heavy ball gives him the edge and the feeling is that he will find a way to win this one in three or, most likely, four sets.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 4-3, + 0.86 Units (14 Units Staked, + 6.14% Yield)

Wednesday, 9 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2025 (Thursday 10th July)

Four days remain at Wimbledon in 2025 and that means we are down to the last eight players at the tournament as the third Grand Slam of the season draws to a close.

By the end of Thursday, we will have the Ladies Final and the next Champion will be a step closer to achieving their aim.

Both favourites are rightly favoured in the Semi Final matches to be played on Day 11, although conditions are going to be far from easy with the temperature soaring in London.


Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: The Quarter Final proved to be a very exhausting occasion for Aryna Sabalenka, both mentally and physically, but she remains a part of the Wimbledon draw. After the win over Laura Siegemund, the World Number 1 admitted her thoughts had turned to leaving another Grand Slam without the trophy as the lower Ranked player's style bamboozled Sabalenka.

There were a lot of spins and slices, a change of rhythm between points and just the all-around grass court tennis style that so few play with these days.

Allowing her frustration to build, Aryna Sabalenka showed plenty of character and resolve to eventually come through in almost three hours on the court and the day of rest between the Quarter Final and Semi Final will do her good.

You can guarantee that Amanda Anisimova will emphasise with the Belarusian having reached the Final at Queen's Club last month before being beaten by veteran Tatjana Maria and all of the grass court nous that the older player had. That has not stopped Amanda Anisimova from building her confidence on this surface and a strong run through to the Semi Final will have added to her belief.

This is also a match up that Amanda Anisimova has enjoyed- she has won five of the eight previous matches against Aryna Sabalenka, although the World Number 1 will point out that three of the last four have been won by herself. That includes revenge wins over the American at the Australian Open in 2024 and French Open in 2025 having lost at both of those Slams to Amanda Anisimova in 2019.

Aryna Sabalenka will appreciate that she will enjoy this match up much more than the Quarter Final in that she is going to be opposed by someone who will want to hit through the ball as much as she will herself. That should mean an 'easier' rhythm to understand, although Sabalenka will be well aware of the threat that Amanda Anisimova will bring onto the court.

Both are going to be well aware of the importance of serving well- on what is expected to be a hot day, the ball is going to be tough to deal with if the server is playing at a top level.

The consistent serving at the tournament has been with Anisimova, but there is little doubt that the higher level can come from Aryna Sabalenka and that is where the World Number 1 may prove to have an edge. She has not always looked at her most convincing this year at Wimbledon, but Sabalenka has shown plenty of character to come through difficult moments and she may also be a bit more battle-hardened having had a tougher pathway into the Semi Final.

When they met at Roland Garros last month, Amanda Anisimova was being given a couple more games on the handicap and she was able to cover, despite a straight sets defeat. This time the spread looks a bit more manageable for Aryna Sabalenka to win and cover, just as long as the top Seed can deal with the nerves and tension she has displayed at the business end of Slams throughout her career.

A first Wimbledon Final will mean a lot to Aryna Sabalenka and she can win a big-hitting Semi Final.


Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Belinda Bencic: The second Semi Final in the Ladies tournament is the one occasion in this Grand Slam where players are actually scheduled to play on back to back days.

Both winners came through in straight sets on Wednesday, which will help, although there was a slight concern about Belinda Bencic's health having called for the trainer towards the end of the second set.

However, it is the Wimbledon Semi Final and that is going to mean the adrenaline will be used to push Bencic through.

A bigger test may be the opponent standing on the other side of the net, even if Iga Swiatek is playing in her first Wimbledon Semi Final too.

The Quarter Final win over Liudmila Samsonova was another solid one for Swiatek, although she will know that she needs to improve her serving having faced ten Break Points in that win. She saved eight of those, but Iga Swiatek had been much more dominant behind serve before that victory and she will look for that to be a big weapon for her against Belinda Bencic.

In previous meetings between the players, the Iga Swiatek serve has been a big advantage for her, although Belinda Bencic has shown her own qualities behind that shot. It was the key to getting past youngster Mirra Andreeva and the Swiss player is going to be well aware of the importance of trying to keep the former World Number 1 under the pump.

Playing on the grass should help, but Belinda Bencic is going to need to be healthy and it is important to note that Iga Swiatek has beaten her here at Wimbledon before.

That was in July 2023 and it will give the multiple time Grand Slam Champion a little more belief in her ability to make it through to a maiden Wimbledon Final. It is Iga Swiatek who has dominated the break points in recent matches against Belinda Bencic and she has been playing well enough to put the pressure on the World Number 35 if there is any lingering injury concern.

Matches between the pair have been competitive, but it is Iga Swiatek who is playing at a good enough level to work her way through to the Final behind a solid win.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 3-2, + 0.66 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.60% Yield)

Tuesday, 8 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 9th July)

The big news that everyone is waiting to hear is all about the Jannik Sinner elbow ahead of Day 10 at Wimbledon.

He looked to be on course for a Fourth Round exit before the most ill-timed of injuries suffered by Grigor Dimitrov, but Jannik Sinner had been worrying about his elbow after a very early fall. Despite admitting that the fall did not seem to be a big deal, Sinner also mentioned that he could feel an issue when serving or hitting a forehand and a MRI was scheduled for Tuesday.

At the time of writing, the only indication about his health is cancelling a practice session he had set for the day and there has to be some serious doubt about whether he can participate in the Quarter Final against Ben Shelton.

His withdrawal would be a blow for those on Court One on Wednesday, but the other three Quarter Final matches will make for good viewing for those watching back home. In a tournament filled with upsets, it may not be the wisest decision to back favourites, but the Picks below all lean that way and you can read the reasoning as to why further on down.


Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Losing both matches played on the grass in 2024 and beginning this year's short stint on the surface with two defeats in three matches may have just given Mirra Andreeva pause for thought. However, it has to be remembered that she reached the Fourth Round on debut at Wimbledon having coming through the Qualifiers and the youngster is Coached by a former Champion at this event.

She lost a couple of tight matches last year and there is no doubting the talent of Mirra Andreeva and what she is likely to achieve in the sport. There have been moments where you have to be reminded that she is a teenager and an inexperience has been seen in some of the defeats she has suffered in recent weeks.

Despite that, Mirra Andreeva enters Wimbledon as the World Number 7 and she is set to improve that regardless of how the tournament ends. However, the Ladies draw has opened up through the opening four Rounds and there has to be some real belief that a maiden Grand Slam title could be secured here, especially if Andreeva can maintain current levels of form.

All eight sets have been won on her way to a first Quarter Final in SW19 and only one of those sets has seen an opponent win more than three games. Mirra Andreeva has been returning so well and putting an extreme amount of pressure on opponents, while her serve is very effective for an 18 year old.

The youngster will need all of that if she is going to get the better of Belinda Bencic, a player who has long enjoyed playing on the grass even if the results have not always been there at Wimbledon. She has made the Fourth Round three times previously, but this is the first time Belinda Bencic has made the Quarter Final with all of her previous experiences of making this Round coming in New York City at the US Open.

Belinda Bencic is going to return to the top 30 of the World Rankings at the end of the tournament, which should mean a Seeding spot when the US Open is played later in the year, and it may have done her some good at being pushed in the previous Rounds.

While it has been largely comfortable for Mirra Andreeva, Belinda Bencic won't panic if things go against her early on and that is due to the fact she has won a couple of matches in three sets. Even the straight sets win in the Fourth Round was a challenge for the Swiss player, but there will be some pressure on Bencic to serve more effectively than she has in the last three Rounds.

Anything else could mean Mirra Andreeva is able to get on the front foot and her experience of reaching a Quarter Final and a Semi Final at the French Open may mean the young player is able to cope with the occasion better than most 18 year olds could do.

Belinda Bencic is likely going to be highly motivated by the challenge, but there have been one or two signs that she may have peaked already and Mirra Andreeva's strong form can see her through to her first Semi Final here.


Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Liudmila Samsonova: If this match was being played on another surface, you would have to make Iga Swiatek a massive favourite to get the better of Liudmila Samsonova.

Not only has she won all four previous matches against this opponent, but Iga Swiatek has not even faced a Break Point in the last three wins, including in the Fourth Round at the US Open last year.

However, this is a Quarter Final at Wimbledon and the grass courts on which Iga Swiatek has not always felt her most comfortable, even with a decent career record on the surface. This is just the second time she has reached the last eight at Wimbledon, but the former World Number 1 has plenty of Grand Slam experience and that could be very important in what is a remaining eight players where very few have the know-how to win at the business end of a major.

Plenty of respect will be given to Liudmila Samsonova, a player that has won multiple titles on the grass and who has rolled through the first four Rounds at Wimbledon this year. The Fourth Round win was a bit more challenging, but Samsonova has been looking really strong in the opening three wins and has a game that is well suited to the surface.

Inexperience may be an obstacle here with Liudmila Samsonova only reaching the second week of a Grand Slam four times before and never making it beyond the Fourth Round. Her Wimbledon record has perhaps not reflected the capabilities on a grass court and the World Number 19 will also have the mental challenge of facing an opponent that has given her very little encouragement in the last three meetings.

The service numbers have dipped in the last couple of wins, which will be concerning for Liudmila Samsonova, and that could be a problem with Iga Swiatek serving as well as she has been throughout this tournament.

You do have to feel that the World Number 4 is going to be pretty comfortable having contained any threat that Liudmila Samsonova brings onto the court in their most recent meetings. Serving well will allow Iga Swiatek to go on the attack against the Samsonova serve and the belief is that she can reach her maiden Semi Final at Wimbledon with a good, strong win when all is said and done.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Flavio Cobolli: There have been plenty of upsets and surprising runs in the Ladies tournament at Wimbledon in 2025, but there have been one or two names that have arrived in the last eight of the Men's event that would have surprised too.

One of those is Flavio Cobolli, despite being a Seed, and the young Italian has made it through to the second week of any Grand Slam for the first time. He then got the better of an experienced player in Marin Cilic in the Fourth Round to reach the Quarter Final and that meant plenty of emotions were on display from his father and brother.

Jannik Sinner may be the poster boy of Italian tennis and there have been players like Jasmine Paolini and Matteo Berrettini who have had considerable successes, and that will be a source of inspiration for Flavio Cobolli. Some have suggested that Cobolli has not always focused on his tennis, but he looks to be locked in now and he is at a career best World Ranking with more to come next Monday.

The key for the younger player is to make sure he focuses on his own tennis- there has to be some improvement in the service numbers if Flavio Cobolli is going to earn the upset and it is so important not to be overawed by taking on a seven time Wimbledon Champion and someone who has won twenty-four Majors.

Flavio Cobolli does know Novak Djokovic and will have practiced with him (and his son), but it is a different experience in a competitive environment on a show court, having not played on Centre or Court One before. In their sole previous meeting last year on the hard courts of Shanghai, the Italian managed to win just three games and the mental battle is going to be just as important as anything happening on the court.

The World Number 24 has served well in the tournament, but it should be noted that half of the four wins have been against players Ranked outside of the top 200 and one of the other wins was against veteran Marin Cilic.

Facing Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon is a very different challenge, even if the seven time Champion was not at his very best in the win over Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round. The Serb was not that comfortable in the conditions nor with the movement and defensive capabilities of De Minaur, but Novak Djokovic should be much happier on Wednesday in warmer and what is forecasted to be much calmer conditions.

The serve was not working nearly as well as Novak Djokovic would have hoped, but the first three Rounds showed he is still very capable behind that shot.

You cannot expect Djokovic to come out as poorly as he did in the last Round, especially with the whole day being more to his liking in terms of the wind. He will be looking to put the Italian under pressure with his own return and if Novak Djokovic is serving back at the level we have seen through the first three Rounds, he should be able to contain much of the threat from the other side of the net.

The match up may be a bit more to Novak Djokovic's liking with Flavio Cobolli looking to hit the ball with more power compared with Alex De Minaur, but that also means likely to make more errors against the best defensive player of all time.

Covering this mark will not be easy for Novak Djokovic, but it is a huge test for an inexperienced opponent and that could see Flavio Cobolli fall away in at least one of the sets played. He will likely enjoy moments of success with the big game he can bring onto the court, but Djokovic has seen most of what his opponent will look to do and he can find the solutions to move through with some relative comfort.

MY PICKS: Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 2-0, + 3.06 Units (4 Units Staked, + 76.50% Yield)

Monday, 7 July 2025

Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 8th July)

Personal time needed to be taken at the start of the tournament in Wimbledon and it feels like I've benefited from avoiding the carnage that took place through the first week of the third Grand Slam of the season.

In the main the top names in the men's draw have made it through to the last eight, although Jannik Sinner was very fortunate to come through his Fourth Round match with Grigor Dimitrov in the most unexpected of ways.

However, the WTA event is once again about as open as you can imagine and none of the remaining eight players should feel like this is not a huge opportunity for them to win a Grand Slam title. Unexpected Ladies Champions have become the norm at SW19 in recent years and, outside of Aryna Sabalenka, the same is likely to happen in 2025.

Iga Swiatek remains active in the draw, but her previous poor form on the grass means she remains vulnerable despite a strong run.


We are into the last eight of both draws and selections will be made from the final few days.

That begins with the Day 9 Picks from two of the four Quarter Final matches, which can be read below.


Taylor Fritz - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: American tennis has seen plenty of those playing on the WTA Tour having success at the Majors, but over twenty years have passed since a male player has been able to pick up one of the big four titles.

One of the big hopes to break that run has been Taylor Fritz, but the Quarter Final Round had proven to be too much to handle with four exits at that stage being as good as it got. That was before the run to the US Open Final last year, but 2025 has been a real disappointment for Taylor Fritz having failed to reach the second week in Melbourne or Paris.

Two of the five Grand Slam Quarter Finals that have been reached by Taylor Fritz have been right here at Wimbledon and so it is no surprise to see him back in that Round. It backs up what has been a strong run on the grass over the last month with two titles picked up and Taylor Fritz will have plenty of belief in his tennis being good enough to win the title here on Sunday.

He has to be considered a strong favourite to beat Karen Khachanov, who has been slipping back in the World Rankings, but who deserves respect having been a former Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon in his own right. Decent runs had been produced in the build up to the 2025 tournament, but Karen Khachanov has also benefited from a number of upsets in his portion of the draw.

It has meant recording wins over players Ranked at Number 88, 147, 37 and 109 in his four wins at the tournament.

Karen Khachanov has perhaps made harder work than he should have to win his four matches at the tournament and he is going to have to serve better than he has at times if he is going to earn the upset.

Two previous wins over Taylor Fritz will give Karen Khachanov belief, but those were both recorded at a time when he would have been the higher Ranked player compared with the American. That has switched around ahead of this Quarter Final and you do feel the match will be won or lost on the racquet of the World Number 5.

Taylor Fritz has become one of the leading performers on the grass courts at this moment in time and that should see him find a way to come through in three or four sets. None of those will be easy to win, but Fritz can out-serve the World Number 20 and earn his first ever spot in the Wimbledon Semi Final.


Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Back in 2019, a 17 year old Amanda Anisimova made a stunning run through to the Semi Final at the French Open and there were some huge expectations that would be heaped onto her shoulders.

At 20 years old, Amanda Anisimova made the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but a year later she decided to take a break from tennis having mentioned potential burnout as a reason. Personal issues had taken a toll and the World Ranking slipped well outside the top 200, but the benefits can be seen in July 2025.

Just prior to Wimbledon, Amanda Anisimova reached her career best World Ranking just outside of the top 10 and at the end of this tournament she will be entering those positions for the first time. A run to the Queen's Club Final showed how comfortable her game translates onto the grass and Amanda Anisimova has battled through the draw where so many other Seeds have fallen.

This is going to be a tough Quarter Final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who has reached the last eight at all four Grand Slams- her run to the Quarter Final here means the World Number 50 has reached the last eight at least twice in three of the four Grand Slams with an opportunity to complete the set at the US Open.

It is the eleventh time Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam event, although it should be noted that she has been beaten in nine of the last ten. Experience is one thing, but there will also be pressure on the 34 year old who may feel this open draw is the best opportunity she will have to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has had to dig deep in the last two Rounds and this match up has proven to be a tough one for her in the past.

All three Tour matches between Pavlyuchenkova and Amanda Anisimova have ended in favour of the younger player, including both matches played in 2024. Those were both hard court matches, but the feeling is that the two players are going to want to challenge one another from the baseline in this one too.

Big serving is key to set things up for the heavy groundstrokes that both players can produce and the tournament numbers suggest Amanda Anisimova has been the more consistent on that front.

Amanda Anisimova will have to come through some tough moments, as she has in each of the last two Rounds, but the younger, fresher player may just out-hit Anastasia Pavyluchenkova again. In the two wins over this opponent last year, Amanda Anisimova was the superior server and her performances over the last month may just see her come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Saturday, 13 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 14 Pick 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 14th July)

The attention of the nation might already have turned to the Euro 2024 Final, but tennis fans will at least have the opportunity to lead into that game by watching the Final of the Men's event at Wimbledon.

It looks like being a really good Final twelve months after Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic met in a five set classic in SW19 and both are going to be feeling good about their chances of success having eased through the Semi Final matches on Friday.

The tournament comes to a close, but the attention will quickly turn to the Olympic Games later this month before the players hop across the pond and prepare for the upcoming US Open which begins at the end of August as is traditional.

We should have some real interest in the Olympic Games with that tournament potentially being the last for Rafael Nadal on the famous courts of Roland Garros, while Andy Murray is another hoping to be fit enough to compete as a Singles player for the final time having missed Wimbledon to his own frustration.


The new Ladies Champion at Wimbledon is Barbora Krejcikova as we have yet another surprising winner of the tournament on the WTA side of things.

She now has as many Grand Slams as Aryna Sabalenka and more than both Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina, which is a real surprise, and Barbora Krejcikova will be heading back into the top ten of the World Rankings on Monday. It might give the former French Open Champion a chance to take some momentum into the Olympic Games back on the clay courts, but for now the Czech player will enjoy becoming Wimbledon Champion as her mentor Jana Novotna had managed to do in her career too.

Now the attention will turn to the big Men's Final between top of the top three players in the World and by the end one of the players will be holding two of the four Grand Slam titles.


Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic over 40.5 games: Twelve months ago, Carlos Alcaraz reached the Final at Wimbledon in somewhat surprising fashion considering he had been beaten relatively early at the French Open. He was the Queen's Champion, which is always a good indicator of the kind of successes a player can have at Wimbledon, but Alcaraz was the underdog against Novak Djokovic, the seven time Champion.

The Rematch is played this Sunday and this time it is the defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz set as the favourite against the former World Number 1.

A lot of Spanish fans will have eyes on this Wimbledon Final before the Euro 2024 Final is played later in the evening and they will be keen to see a Double. Despite not finding his best tennis consistently, Carlos Alcaraz has shown he has the character to come through some difficult moments in his run to the Wimbledon Final.

There is also a real feeling that Carlos Alcaraz has come through the tougher half of the draw with three wins over top 16 Ranked opponents, while the highest Ranked player Novak Djokovic has beaten is the World Number 15 Holger Rune.

Carlos Alcaraz will be the first to admit that even then, his level will have to be picked up if he is going to get the better of Novak Djokovic for a second time in a row at Wimbledon. His serving numbers have really not been up to the standard expected on a grass court and that is going to be tested by arguably the greatest return player in the history of the sport.

The Novak Djokovic return numbers have perhaps not been as strong as we have come to expect, but that might have something to do with a far more aggressive approach taken through this tournament. The knee is not one that Djokovic wants to have to take into long rallies as often as he has been known to do, and that aggression has led to more mistakes and looking to end points quicker than normal.

It is something that will likely have been noted by the Alcaraz team and they will be keen to not give too much away to Djokovic and force him into those rallies that the seven time Champion has been looking to avoid.

One area where Novak Djokovic has had more success is behind his serve with his follow up shot to that opening one looking to get into position to end points as soon as possible. His numbers have been strong throughout his run to the Final and even Lorenzo Musetti struggled to test Djokovic in the manner he would have hoped on this side of his tennis.

Novak Djokovic has only dropped serve five times throughout the fortnight at Wimbledon, whereas Carlos Alcaraz dropped serve five times in just his Third Round match. This might be key to the outcome of this match, as could the fact that Novak Djokovic has won the last two matches against the Spaniard since losing the Wimbledon Final in 2023.

Matches between the players have been intense, but Novak Djokovic has had the edge on the service numbers.

However, some of those numbers are influenced by the match at Roland Garros in 2023 when Carlos Alcaraz completely cramped up under the tension of the occasion. He is a much stronger player now and this has all of the makings of another Wimbledon epic.

There will be plenty of fans hoping the match is perhaps not quite as intense as the almost five hours spend on court last season (with the fear it would potentially begin to encroach towards the Euro 2024 Final kick off), but another four setter has to be the minimum expectation.

Last season there were two sets that ended in 6-1 scores, which could make it hard to cover the total line in this one if it does indeed conclude in four sets.

With the way both Alcaraz and Djokovic are playing, it would be a surprise if we do see those one-sided sets again, especially after their battle at Cincinnati last August.

Novak Djokovic perhaps looks an appealing underdog, but he has not really bettered too many of his rivals so far this season and this is a big step up compared with previous opponents played.

Being slightly more battle-hardened should aid Carlos Alcaraz, but the real expectation is for another very competitive match between players from different generations. They should both contribute to a strong Final in which both players will win a set and that should put this match well on the way to surpass the total games line in this one.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 21-21, - 5.44 Units (84 Units Staked, - 6.48% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Pick- Ladies Final (Saturday 13th July)

We have gotten the Men's Final that most would have hoped for when the Wimbledon tournament began, but the unexpected Ladies Final is first up this weekend.

Once again it has been a wide open event and two players with Grand Slam Final experience will be meeting, even if picking both Finalists would have been a challenge beyond the vast majority of fans.

Going back to my Day 1 Picks, the players in the outright market that were highlighted outside of the obvious favourites included Lorenzo Musetti at 100-1 and Jasmine Paolini at 66-1.

While the Italian men's challenger came up short, those who did back the latter will be in a very strong position come Saturday.


Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The last time these two players met on the Tour, Barbora Krejcikova was the World Number 128 and Jasmine Paolini was the World Number 156. That match was in the First Qualifying Round at the 2018 Australian Open, but suffice to say this is a much bigger stage for the two players to be competing on in 2024.

When they play one another on Saturday in the Wimbledon Final, both players are guaranteed to be in the top 14 of the World Rankings when the new numbers are released on Monday. It is Jasmine Paolini, the new World Number 5, who is the higher Ranked, but Barbora Krejcikova has been given the edge in the Final by those putting the odds together.

You cannot argue with that as the two surprising former French Open Finalists meet- Barbora Krejcikova was able to win the title when reaching the Final, while Jasmine Paolini came up a little short against Iga Swiatek last month, but being a former Grand Slam Champion is certainly going to be a potential factor in favour of Krejcikova.

Winning the title would actually push Barbora Krejcikova back into the top 10 and she will certainly feel she has been playing strong tennis this week.

The tournament did start slowly and there were nerves early in the Semi Final, but the way the Czech player was able to turn things around against Elena Rybakina will serve her well. The match up in this one is very different with Jasmine Paolini not having the kind of power that the former Wimbledon Champion possesses, and certainly a stronger defender, but beating a former Champion will certainly make Barbora Krejcikova play with some confidence.

Both players are happy to play in the Ladies Doubles at Grand Slam level and so there is a feeling that this is going to be a fun match to watch.

A key for Barbora Krejcikova is to serve well and try and keep Jasmine Paolini under pressure, although the Italian has continued to play with the confidence and character to never be out of a match.

She has turned around some tough moments throughout this Wimbledon run and has become the first women's player to reach both the French Open and Wimbledon Final in the same season since Serena Williams eight years ago. Any time you are in a conversation with Williams, you know you are doing something right and Jasmine Paolini has shown her fortitude in her wins over Madison Keys and Donna Vekic when things looked to have moved beyond her.

In saying that, Paolini has perhaps benefited from both of those players picking up injuries during the match which changed the momentum of the contest. That was certainly the case against Madison Keys who led 5-2 in the deciding set and had two opportunities to serve out the match.

Jasmine Paolini is a fighter though and her movement around the court will extract errors- the serve can be a vulnerability and it is a Final that could really come down to the Barbora Krejcikova racquet and how much control she has on her unforced error count.

Keeping those as contained as possible is key and it does feel like the edge is with the former French Open Champion over the 2024 Finalist.

There are likely to be a number of breaks of serve and this might be the third Wimbledon Ladies Final in four years that needs a deciding set. The narrow edge has to be with Barbora Krejcikova who may be able to get through a couple of service games with a bit more ease and that may just build enough pressure on Jasmine Paolini to see the Italian come up slightly short in a second Grand Slam Final in a row.

MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 20-21, - 7.18 Units (82 Units Staked, - 8.76% Yield)

Thursday, 11 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Friday 12th July)

With the Ladies Final set for Saturday, attention will turn to the Men's Semi Final matches on Day 12 of Wimbledon.

Three of the top five players are involved, while Lorenzo Musetti is looking to really make a massive statement by reaching his first Grand Slam Final in what has been a very good month of tennis for him.

He is the surprise of the Men's tournament, but Musetti is hoping to join his compatriot Matteo Berrettini in reaching a Wimbledon Final, while the bigger task is to try and become the second Italian to win a Grand Slam this season after Jannik Sinner was able to do that in Australia.

Beating Novak Djokovic is still the ultimate challenge in a best of five set format, while the other Semi Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev is a repeat of a Semi Final played at Wimbledon last year.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Italian Tennis has been experiencing a real boost over the last few years with some big names on the ATP Tour. Jasmine Paolini is making an impact on the WTA Tour and now Lorenzo Musetti is once again sharing some of the limelight of Jannik Sinner by returning to the top 20 in the World Rankings and gearing up for his first Grand Slam Semi Final.

He came through a battle in the Quarter Final against Taylor Fritz, but that win has continued what has been a fine month of grass court tennis.

Lorenzo Musetti is still only 22 years old and so it is perhaps no surprise that there has been a slight stagnation to the development on the Tour. Thirteen months ago he reached a career high World Ranking, but it has not been the easiest year on the Tour and that is why he had slipped out of the top 20.

Poor Grand Slam results have not helped, but Musetti has taken the form from reaching the Queen's Club Final and brought that with him on the short journey to Wimbledon. Overall the performances have been impressive, but the Italian has also had to show his battling qualities with a couple of five set wins and also being able to recover when behind.

All of that is likely going to be tested by Novak Djokovic who will be keenly listening out for boos instead of Muus from the Centre Court crowd.

The seven time Wimbledon Championc continues to feel that crowds are not offering the respect that he deserves, although there remains a real feeling that Novak Djokovic is just trying to fuel his motivation even further. Being given a Bye to the Quarter Final might feel like a bonus for Djokovic, who had come into the Wimbledon tournament with fitness doubts, and having three full days of recovery between matches within a Grand Slam tournament is a huge boost for his chances of matching Roger Federer's eight wins in SW19.

Things have not gone completely his way at Wimbledon, but Novak Djokovic's dominant win over Holger Rune in the Fourth Round suggests he is rounding into form. No one is going to question the grass court pedigree of the former World Number 1 and Novak Djokovic deserves to be a relatively strong favourite in this Semi Final.

However, the Serb is not going to take anything for granted against a player who has twice been one set away from beating him at a Grand Slam.

Both of those matches were at Roland Garros in 2021, when Lorenzo Musetti really announced himself to a wider audience while leading Novak Djokovic 2-0, and earlier this year when Musetti lost the first set, but won two in a row in the Third Round.

Novak Djokovic was able to turn both matches around and he will also note that those were played on clay, the favoured surface of Lorenzo Musetti.

Two previous hard court matches have both ended in favour of Djokovic with some relative comfort attached and even the slightly slower grass court of Centre Court is unlikely to change things too much. It is the first time Lorenzo Musetti will be playing on the main court of Wimbledon, although handling the occasion is something he has the temperament to do.

The bigger question is having the tennis to beat Novak Djokovic and that seems unlikely right now, even after an impressive win over Taylor Fritz in the Quarter Final.

There is just so much more solidness about Novak Djokovic's all around game compared with Fritz and that is likely to show up. The favourite has the better serving consisteny and Novak Djokovic is just as capable of exerting returning pressures like Lorenzo Musetti.

In their previous matches, there has been a clear edge in favour of Novak Djokovic when it comes to holding serve and he may just wear down the younger player and cover what is a big handicap mark all things considered.


Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The grass courts have frustrated Daniil Medvedev at times and he is still mostly in love with the hard courts, but his recent runs at Wimbledon may just have shown the World Number 5 how capable he is on this surface.

In reality Daniil Medvedev is a pretty solid player on all surfaces and it would be a real shame for him and his brand of tennis if he is not able to add to the US Open he won in 2021.

There is no doubt that he has had his chances- Daniil Medvedev should have won the very next Grand Slam at the Australian Open- and a consistent performer on the Tour has now reached the Semi Final in four of the last five Slams played. He was leading by two sets again in the Final at the Australian Open earlier this year before coming up short and so Daniil Medvedev may still feel he has something to prove.

That defeat came against Jannik Sinner, but it was Medvedev who beat the Italian in the Quarter Final here, although the challenges do not get any easier.

Next up is the defending Champion and Carlos Alcaraz continues to show that he can battle through difficult moments on his way to his successes. Winning the French Open-Wimbledon double has proven to be a huge challenge throughout the years, but Carlos Alcaraz is playing with a real determination and will to win and this is a match up that will not concern him.

It has not been the most convincing of runs and the Spaniard has dropped one set in each of his last two wins, while needing to come through in five sets in the Third Round against Frances Tiafoe. The level did increase as he overwhelmed Queen's Champion Tommy Paul in the Quarter Final after a slow start and that kind of performance will give Carlos Alcaraz full belief that he can go on and win the title here again.

The serve is not working quite as well as it was twelve months ago and that will need to be improved if Carlos Alcaraz is going to defend his title. Each of his last three opponents have been able to fashion at least ten Break Points and giving up that many chances is always going to be dangerous, even if Carlos Alcaraz has the returning ability to make up for that.

He will know that a poor serving day could lead to problems, as it did when losing to Danill Medvedev at the US Open last year as the defending Champion.

In saying that, it is a match that has been the exception in recent meetings between Medvedev and Alcaraz and that gives the latter a significant mental edge.

Last year it was Carlos Alcaraz who beat Daniil Medvedev in pretty routine fashion in the Wimbledon Semi Final and he has also won two matches against this opponent since the US Open defeat. This means Alcaraz has won four of the last five against Daniil Medvedev and so the onus really is on the underdog to change things around.

He put in a lot to beat Jannik Sinner in the Quarter Final, although fatigue is not expected to be an issue with that match being played on Tuesday and this Semi Final taking place on a Friday.

Back in 2021, Daniil Medvedev did beat Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon in a big straight sets victory, but things have changed between the players since then. On that day, Medvedev broke the Alcaraz serve seven times, but he has managed to do that just six times combined in the next five matches played and this feels like a match that is very much going to be played on the Alcaraz racquet.

There is room for improvement for Carlos Alcaraz, but the comfort within this match up should help in encouraging that and he can win and cover over the course of this contest.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 19-20, - 6.62 Units (78 Units Staked, - 8.49% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 11th July)

It is Semi Final day on Thursday with both Ladies last four matches played on the same day.

The tournament has reached the business end and the third Grand Slam of the season is ready to be handed out.


Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: Despite having a longer career in the limelight, Donna Vekic is going to be the more inexperienced player in this surprising Wimbledon Semi Final from the bottom half of the Ladies tournament.

With a career best World Ranking of Number 19, Donna Vekic has perhaps not reached the kind of level that most tipped for her when she broke through onto the WTA Tour. She is only 28 years old now, but Donna Vekic played in the US Open Qualifiers all the way back in 2012 and her first main draw match at a Grand Slam a few months later at the Australian Open in 2013.

Injuries haven't always helped, but Vekic has perhaps struggled mentally when she has put decent runs together at the biggest events. The Croatian has made it through to her first Grand Slam Semi Final this week having previously reached just a couple of Quarter Finals, while it is quite amazing to note that Donna Vekic has never made the Quarter Final in any of the WTA 1000 events that are played throughout the year.

Her opponent in this Semi Final is a late bloomer on the Tour, but Jasmine Paolini is going to be playing with the confidence of a player that reached the French Open Final last month. Some fortune has been behind this run, most notably in her Fourth Round win over Madison Keys who picked up an injury while leading 5-2 in the third set, but Jasmine Paolini showed her class by completely dominating Emma Navarro in the Quarter Final.

This is a different kind of challenge against a player like Donna Vekic who can serve big and put some huge groundstrokes together- it will be a similar kind of match as the one that Paolini faced against Madison Keys.

Just like Keys, Donna Vekic can go through moments where the radar is out of sync leading to unforced errors and she will know that Jasmine Paolini is likely going to bring a consistent brand of tennis to the court.

You also have to factor in the amount of time Vekic has spent on the court in the last few days with each of the last three matches needing three sets and two of them being played into a third hour.

Jasmine Paolini has won two of the three previous matches between the players and both wins have been on a hard court, which should give her a solid mental edge. The most recent match between the players came last year in Canada and Paolini edged a tight first set before pulling away and there is a feeling that something similar may happen in this Semi Final.

There will be tension in the air considering how much is on the line, but Jasmine Paolini's confidence is at a super-high level right now and that is important. We saw moments in the Quarter Final win over Lulu Sun that Donna Vekic is still prone to feeling that pressure and Paolini's recent French Open run might just stand her in good stead as she looks to make it through to back to back Grand Slam Finals.


Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 games v Elena Rybakina: The two previous meetings have both ended in Barbora Krejcikova wins over Elena Rybakina, so that will help, but it is still a big ask to beat the 2022 Wimbledon Champion on Centre Court in the 2024 Semi Finals.

She snapped a losing run to get the better of Jelena Ostapenko in the Quarter Final and Barbora Krejcikova was able to serve very efficiently. This has been an aspect of her tennis that has improved after the struggles of the first couple of Rounds and it is vital for the former French Open Champion to make sure she looks after this side of her game.

In the first two Rounds, Barbora Krejcikova was winning fewer than 60% of her service points and she was very fortunate to get through those two matches.

Since then, Krejcikova has won at least 70% of her service points in each of the three matches played at Wimbledon and she has faced just eight Break Points in those three wins compared with twenty-two in the first two matches combined.

Serving well is one thing, but keeping Elena Rybakina on the back-foot is key.

We have seen the former Champion growing in matches as she has been allowed to really push through her groundstrokes on the return and Elena Rybakina has been freed up by her own big serve.

Trying to get enough of those serves back into play will be a significant challenge for Barbora Krejcikova who did have some struggles getting into the Jelena Ostapenko games in the Quarter Final. Unlike the Latvian, Elena Rybakina is not as wasteful with some of her rally balls and will not give away some of the games in a manner that Ostapenko can be prone to do.

Elena Rybakina is really looking after her serve in this tournament and that is why she is a clear favourite to win the Wimbledon title for a second time in three years. Even in the two losses to this opponent, Elena Rybakina has not had too many issues when it comes to the serve and that is likely going to be key for her again.

There is also the additional factor of Barbora Krejcikova playing in the Ladies Doubles this week as well as the Singles, and that has meant playing twice on Wednesday, just twenty-four hours before this big Semi Final.

We do know that Barbora Krejcikova is used to playing both Singles and Doubles in a Grand Slam tournament so it should not be a major problem, but this is already a tough match for her. It would be a surprise if Krejcikova is able to go all the way and earn the upset, but she should be competitive enough and the Czech player is perhaps being a little underrated in this Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 18-19, - 6.62 Units (74 Units Staked, - 8.95% Yield)

Wednesday, 10 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 10th July)

The tournament might have been affected by the ridiculous amount of rain that has been around in London over the last couple of weeks, but at least the Singles events are right on schedule.

The roof may not be needed on either show court on Day 10 of Wimbledon when the rest of the Semi Finalists are confirmed.


Taylor Fritz - 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: There is a big opportunity for both Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti on Day 10 of The Championships as they bid to reach a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.

It was supposed to be a quarter of the draw where the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev would have made a big impact, but both were upset early on in the tournament.

Take nothing away from Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz, especially not the latter who came from two sets down to beat a top four player in Alexander Zverev in the Fourth Round on Monday, but you can also make a strong guess at the fact that both players in this Quarter Final are very comfortable with the match up presented to them.

The two players both enjoyed strong grass court tournaments in the build up to Wimbledon, which means both Musetti and Fritz should be playing with a lot of confidence on the surface. The former was a beaten Finalist at Queen's Club, while Taylor Fritz won the Eastbourne title and has now won eight matches in success on the grass.

Taylor Fritz looks to be the more battle-hardened of the two players having secured two top 20 wins already at Wimbledon and both against solid opponents. On the other side of the net, Lorenzo Musetti's best win in SW19 is against the current World Number 37 and the way he was handled by Tommy Paul in the Queen's Final will certainly be something that Fritz will have noted.

A couple of years ago, Taylor Fritz was able to beat Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets at Wimbledon and you have to give the American a big edge on the serve. Throughout this run, Fritz has really put opponents under significant pressure thanks to his serving numbers and this match is likely going to be placed on Court One, which is the quicker of the two show case courts.

It should further enable Fritz to rattle through some of his service games and keep the pressure on Lorenzo Musetti, despite the fact the Italian has been serving well in the last three matches. His win over a big server in the Fourth Round will have given Musetti plenty of belief ahead of the Quarter Final, even if Taylor Fritz is an all around superior player to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.

The grass court defeats to Matteo Berrettini and Tommy Paul last month are perhaps more of an indicator as to how this match may develop.

Lorenzo Musetti did win his last match against Taylor Fritz, but that was on a clay court and the faster surfaces should really give the American a significant edge.

The line is not an easy one to cover if Lorenzo Musetti is playing his best, but you have to believe the Taylor Fritz serve may just force a couple of capitulations thanks to scoreboard pressure and that will see the World Number 12 move through.

Taylor Fritz has played in three previous Grand Slam Quarter Finals, including one at Wimbledon, and that experience edge may also help in an event where he looks to be playing the superior tennis compared with his opponent.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: There are still a number of the grass court title winners playing in the Men's draw at Wimbledon this week, even as we move into the Quarter Final Round.

Those players will have a lot of confidence and belief in their tennis having also won four matches at Wimbledon and one of those is Alex De Minaur who has somewhat flown under the radar. That may have something to do with benefiting from a walkover in the Third Round, but a title winner on the grass courts of Hertogenbosch will be given plenty of respect.

The home fans may want to get behind him anyway seeing as De Minaur is in a relatively high-profile relationship with British women's number one Katie Boulter, although the crowd may be a little more aware of how they made sound to seven time Champion Novak Djokovic.

After cruising past Holger 'RUUUUUUNE' in the Fourth Round, Novak Djokovic's on-court interview suggested that the fans were perhaps happier to use this as cheer for his opponent as an opportunity to boo him. There were some tense exchanges and it is perhaps clear that Novak Djokovic continues to feel underappreciated despite moving past both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on the all-time Grand Slam Winners list.

Once again it is likely to be his opponent who receives more of the support with his connections to British Tennis, but Djokovic might just come out with a bit more fire, which is when he plays his best tennis.

As mentioned before the tournament began, Novak Djokovic is still one of the top grass court players in the world if he is healthy and the four wins here suggests he is capable of going all the way for an eighth time in SW19.

He is a favourite in this Quarter Final, but Novak Djokovic will know that it could be tougher to shorten the points as he has been trying to do all week. The defensive skills of Alex De Minaur makes him dangerous, although the Australian has a vulnerable serve and that is where the former World Number 1 can really come into his own.

Alex De Minaur has reached a career best World Number 7 and he is on course to actually break new ground at the end of this tournament. However, his lack of Grand Slam experience could be an issue with this being his third ever Quarter Final at this level compared with Novak Djokovic who has made it through to his fifteenth Wimbledon Quarter Final alone.

The key to this Quarter Final is the way that Novak Djokovic is serving and the feeling is that he is going to earn a few cheaper games than his opponent.

There are positives for Alex De Minaur to take away from his grass court successes this summer, but the serve is a bit more vulnerable and Novak Djokovic may just be able to find a way to cover even in a match where he may drop another set.


Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: After barely having any main draw Grand Slam experience as a Singles player, Barbora Krejcikova surprisingly won the French Open in 2021 and followed up with three decent runs at the next three Grand Slams played.

At the end of the Australian Open in 2022, Barbora Krejcikova had reached World Number 2, but it has been a tough time for her since then and she was fortunate to earn a Seeding for Wimbledon.

Twelve months ago, the Czech player arrived here just outside the top 10 of the World Rankings and that should underline how difficult the last twelve months have been for a player now down at World Number 32. Her four wins at Wimbledon will be a huge boost though and another win or two would see Barbora Krejcikova move back into the top 20, while also alleviating any fears of falling out of the Seeding positions for the US Open.

She did reach the Australian Open Quarter Final earlier this season, but Barbora Krejcikova had failed to progress beyond the Second Round in four of her previous five Grand Slams before her surprising run under the radar here at Wimbledon. With top names falling all around, there may be a feeling in the Krejcikova camp that she has the tennis to secure a second upset Grand Slam title.

Performances early in the draw at Wimbledon were not very impressive, but Krejcikova looks to have improved her level in the last couple of matches. One of those was against an injured opponent so cannot be given the same respect as the one in the Fourth Round when the Czech player got the better of Danielle Collins.

Next up is a former Wimbledon Juniors Champion in Jelena Ostapenko who also had limited Grand Slam experience before surprisingly surging to the French Open title in 2017. She is still only 27 years old, but Ostapenko has not had the kind of impact as a Singles player that was threatened with that run to the French Open title as a teenager.

She did reach the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2018 before losing to eventual Champion Angelique Kerber, but Jelena Ostapenko was not able to progress past the Fourth Round of any Grand Slam until Melboune in January 2023. Later in the year she reached the Quarter Final at the US Open too, so recent experiences may just settle the Latvian who will go for all of her shots without any hestitation.

After a pretty poor grass court campaign over the last month, Jelena Ostapenko has blitzed the competition at Wimbledon and is playing about as well as anyone left in the draw. Not only has she yet to drop a set, but no player has managed to win more than three games in any of the sets played and Jelena Ostapenko's numbers are very impressive.

With three wins in a row over Barbora Krejcikova behind her, including beating her in the Birmingham Final on a grass court last year, Jelena Ostapenko has to be feeling confident about her tennis. She is a player that will go for big shots, which can lead to a host of errors, but the serve has been working well and an aggressive return might keep her fellow former French Open Champion under the cosh.

It has been an easy tournament for Jelena Ostapenko so far, but that is rarely the case for her over stretches of periods- however, the Latvian is playing with a real sense of belief and expectation that can see her progress and cover this handicap mark set by the layers.


Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: After winning her Fourth Round match due to Anna Kalinskaya being forced to retire, Elena Rybakina was asked if she is feeling any additional pressure as the highest Seed left in the Wimbledon Ladies tournament and as a former Champion here.

The World Number 4 made it clear that she is not thinking about anything but the next match and that has to be the right approach with matches still to be won on the grass and not on paper.

Arguably this is the toughest match that Elena Rybakina could face out of the players remaining in the last eight of the draw and Elina Svitolina showed twelve months ago how good she can be on the grass courts of SW19.

Added motivation is there to give her compatriots something to cheer them up as Ukraine continues to deal with the Russian offensive in a war that has lasted well over two years already. Elina Svitolina wore a black ribbon in support of those affected by a major Russian strike on the eve of her Fourth Round match and the World Number 21 has admitted that she is finding it tough to focus on her tennis.

Despite that, Elina Svitolina is performing at a high level when she is on the court and she has been serving very effectively, which makes things all the easier on the grass. Three of the four wins have been against opponents that Svitolina would have expected to beat, but the victory over Ons Jabeur in the Third Round is very impressive, especially in the manner that win was put together.

Beating a two time Runner Up is one thing, but beating a former Wimbledon Champion is another and that is the challenge that Elina Svitolina will be facing in this Quarter Final. When the two players met at the French Open, you may have thought the surface would have aided Svitolina, but it was Elena Rybakina who came through with a strong win and is now on a much more favoured court.

Neither player can point to a deep grass court run in preparation for Wimbledon, but the level within the tournament has to be respected.

Elena Rybakina has certainly enjoyed the benefit of being a top four Seed with the way the draw has panned out for her and so there is some concern that she is not going to be ready for a big step up in class. Being familiar with the Elina Svitolina game will help, but Rybakina will know that she will need to serve well and avoid a rash of unforced errors if she is going to edge past this opponent.

The competition level has to be considered, but even then the 2022 Wimbledon Champion has played really well in working her way through the tournament.

Elina Svitolina will offer resistance, but she was pretty well beaten in her Semi Final here last season and the World Number 4 might just wear her down with big serving and aggressive groundstrokes through the course of this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 17-17, - 3.94 Units (68 Units Staked, - 5.79% Yield)