Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 8th July)

Personal time needed to be taken at the start of the tournament in Wimbledon and it feels like I've benefited from avoiding the carnage that took place through the first week of the third Grand Slam of the season.

In the main the top names in the men's draw have made it through to the last eight, although Jannik Sinner was very fortunate to come through his Fourth Round match with Grigor Dimitrov in the most unexpected of ways.

However, the WTA event is once again about as open as you can imagine and none of the remaining eight players should feel like this is not a huge opportunity for them to win a Grand Slam title. Unexpected Ladies Champions have become the norm at SW19 in recent years and, outside of Aryna Sabalenka, the same is likely to happen in 2025.

Iga Swiatek remains active in the draw, but her previous poor form on the grass means she remains vulnerable despite a strong run.

We are into the last eight of both draws and selections will be made from the final few days.

That begins with the Day 9 Picks from two of the four Quarter Final matches, which can be read below.

Taylor Fritz - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: American tennis has seen plenty of those playing on the WTA Tour having success at the Majors, but over twenty years have passed since a male player has been able to pick up one of the big four titles.

One of the big hopes to break that run has been Taylor Fritz, but the Quarter Final Round had proven to be too much to handle with four exits at that stage being as good as it got. That was before the run to the US Open Final last year, but 2025 has been a real disappointment for Taylor Fritz having failed to reach the second week in Melbourne or Paris.

Two of the five Grand Slam Quarter Finals that have been reached by Taylor Fritz have been right here at Wimbledon and so it is no surprise to see him back in that Round. It backs up what has been a strong run on the grass over the last month with two titles picked up and Taylor Fritz will have plenty of belief in his tennis being good enough to win the title here on Sunday.

He has to be considered a strong favourite to beat Karen Khachanov, who has been slipping back in the World Rankings, but who deserves respect having been a former Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon in his own right. Decent runs had been produced in the build up to the 2025 tournament, but Karen Khachanov has also benefited from a number of upsets in his portion of the draw.

It has meant recording wins over players Ranked at Number 88, 147, 37 and 109 in his four wins at the tournament.

Karen Khachanov has perhaps made harder work than he should have to win his four matches at the tournament and he is going to have to serve better than he has at times if he is going to earn the upset.

Two previous wins over Taylor Fritz will give Karen Khachanov belief, but those were both recorded at a time when he would have been the higher Ranked player compared with the American. That has switched around ahead of this Quarter Final and you do feel the match will be won or lost on the racquet of the World Number 5.

Taylor Fritz has become one of the leading performers on the grass courts at this moment in time and that should see him find a way to come through in three or four sets. None of those will be easy to win, but Fritz can out-serve the World Number 20 and earn his first ever spot in the Wimbledon Semi Final.

Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Back in 2019, a 17 year old Amanda Anisimova made a stunning run through to the Semi Final at the French Open and there were some huge expectations that would be heaped onto her shoulders.

At 20 years old, Amanda Anisimova made the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but a year later she decided to take a break from tennis having mentioned potential burnout as a reason. Personal issues had taken a toll and the World Ranking slipped well outside the top 200, but the benefits can be seen in July 2025.

Just prior to Wimbledon, Amanda Anisimova reached her career best World Ranking just outside of the top 10 and at the end of this tournament she will be entering those positions for the first time. A run to the Queen's Club Final showed how comfortable her game translates onto the grass and Amanda Anisimova has battled through the draw where so many other Seeds have fallen.

This is going to be a tough Quarter Final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who has reached the last eight at all four Grand Slams- her run to the Quarter Final here means the World Number 50 has reached the last eight at least twice in three of the four Grand Slams with an opportunity to complete the set at the US Open.

It is the eleventh time Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam event, although it should be noted that she has been beaten in nine of the last ten. Experience is one thing, but there will also be pressure on the 34 year old who may feel this open draw is the best opportunity she will have to win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has had to dig deep in the last two Rounds and this match up has proven to be a tough one for her in the past.

All three Tour matches between Pavlyuchenkova and Amanda Anisimova have ended in favour of the younger player, including both matches played in 2024. Those were both hard court matches, but the feeling is that the two players are going to want to challenge one another from the baseline in this one too.

Big serving is key to set things up for the heavy groundstrokes that both players can produce and the tournament numbers suggest Amanda Anisimova has been the more consistent on that front.

Amanda Anisimova will have to come through some tough moments, as she has in each of the last two Rounds, but the younger, fresher player may just out-hit Anastasia Pavyluchenkova again. In the two wins over this opponent last year, Amanda Anisimova was the superior server and her performances over the last month may just see her come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 8 Picks 2024 (Monday 8th July)

The tournament is moving into the second week and we will have the Quarter Final line up completed by the end of Day 8 at The Championships.

Rain has been an issue, but it has also been at a time when the Singles tournament is still in a position to be right on schedule.

Weather issues should not be a problem at all on Monday, although the rest of the Wimbledon event may need to be completed under the roofs of Centre Court and Court One.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Taylor Fritz: The Ladies draw has been decimated with upsets littered around the tournament, but the top names are still going strong in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon on Day 8 of The Championships.

Quarter Final spots have already been secured by Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, but it is an opportunity for other members of the top four places in the World Rankings to earn their own places in the last eight.

First up on Centre Court as far as the Men's tournament is concerned is Alexander Zverev, and the current World Number 4 could yet improve his World Ranking at the end of the tournament. In previous years it has been a tough Grand Slam for Alexander Zverev, but he is playing with the confidence of a player that has reached the French Open Final and who has had success on the surface before, albeit outside of SW19.

One issue that may still be a potential thorn in the side of the German is the left knee issue having slipped with a serious looking impact in the Third Round win over Cameron Norrie. Having a day of rest between matches will help Alexander Zverev in what is expected to be a very tough Fourth Round match against a confident opponent.

Taylor Fritz has played well on the grass before and he is riding a seven match winning run on the surface having won the title in Eastbourne just before Wimbledon began. There will still be some real regret at failing to beat Rafael Nadal in the Wimbledon Quarter Final two years ago, but Fritz did not have the best grass court season in 2023 and has suffered a defeat to Jordan Thompson at Queen's Club.

The win over Alejandro Tabilo in the Third Round was impressive and Taylor Fritz is continuing to get plenty out of his serving, although he will be facing a tough challenge on the return against this Alexander Zverev serve.

In the previous eight matches between Fritz and Zverev, it is the latter who has had a big advantage when it comes to the serving numbers and that has helped the German win five of those matches. They met at Wimbledon in 2021 and Alexander Zverev was able to recover from a set down to beat Taylor Fritz in four sets in the Third Round, although it should be noted that the American player is much improved now.

Five sets were needed when these two met at Wimbledon back in 2018, and Alexander Zverev was able to get the better of that match too.

There is little doubt that this is another match that could go pretty deep with both players capable of serving at a very high level. The total line is in a good spot, but there is also a reason to believe that Alexander Zverev might have a bit more quality over Taylor Fritz and ultimately back up the slight edge that the layers believe he has over this opponent.

With both serving at a high level, the feeling is that Alexander Zverev can find a way to get a few more returns into play and find a way to neutralise some of the rallies. That will be key to the outcome of the match and Zverev can earn a maiden Quarter Final spot at Wimbledon as he reaches that stage at all Grand Slam events in his career.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Holger Rune: The seven time Wimbledon Champion has not been at his top level during the first week at this Grand Slam tournament, but Novak Djokovic has found a way through the draw.

Despite the injury that forced a withdrawal at the French Open, Novak Djokovic has looked like he is playing with enough freedom to have a real tilt at winning the Wimbledon title for an eighth time.

He is perhaps changing his style to ensure that he is not having to play long, drawn out points and aggravate any lingering issue, but Novak Djokovic has been effective. Dropping two sets over the first three matches is perhaps not what we have always come to expect from the former World Number 1, but he has found a way to keep control of matches against overmatched opponents.

That will not be the case in the Fourth Round when Novak Djokovic faces Holger Rune, a young opponent who has two pro wins over Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic has won the other three matches between himself and Holger Rune, but he will be aware that this is a player that can be very tough to beat at his best. The Dane did have come from two sets down in the Third Round, while Holger Rune was beaten in his first match at Queen's Club, but he will still believe that he has the tennis to at least test the favourite.

Holger Rune did reach the Wimbledon Quarter Final last year so clearly is capable of performing at a good level on the grass courts, while he may feel he can offer more of a threat against the Novak Djokovic serve than he did in that defeat against Carlos Alcaraz.

However, there is also a feeling that Novak Djokovic is rounding into form to have a real go at trying to win this title again, and he is playing with an aggression that may give him an edge.

In previous matches between Djokovic and Holger Rune, the former has held 83% of the service games played compared with 75% for Rune. On a grass court, you would still have to give the Number 2 Seed a bit more of an advantage and he can get the better of Holger Rune with a solid victory in this Fourth Round match.

Elena Rybakina-Anna Kalinskaya over 20.5 games: The 2022 Wimbledon Champion is still playing in the 2024 tournament and Elena Rybakina is a strong favourite to win a second Grand Slam title here.

She has been considered a part of the big four on the WTA Tour, but the other three players in that group have all exited the Wimbledon draw before the Quarter Final. Dangerous players like Ons Jabeur and Madison Keys are also out and Elena Rybakina's experience may give her a real edge over the rest of the draw.

In saying that, this Fourth Round match has the potential to be really awkward for Elena Rybakina as she prepares to face Anna Kalinskaya.

The latter might be making some headlines through her relationship with Jannik Sinner, but that will not do Anna Kalinskaya any justice to her own level. The World Number 18 is ready to make another move in the World Rankings having reached the Fourth Round here and Anna Kalinskaya reached the Final on the grass courts of Berlin before losing a tight match against Jessica Pegula.

She was playing pretty well in Berlin, while Anna Kalinskaya's confidence won't have been dented with three wins in the draw in Wimbledon and all without dropping a set. The serve has been working well and that is going to be key for Kalinskaya if she is going to find a way to upset the odds in this Fourth Round match that opens Centre Court.

We know that strong serving and powerful groundstrokes are going to be flying from the Elena Rybakina side of the net.

That will be important for the former Champion if she is going to regain her crown on the grass courts of Wimbledon and this could be a competitive match and one that surpasses the total games line set.

Previous matches between Elena Rybakina and Anna Kalinskaya have been very competitive and there is every chance that this one will be the same. The layers are anticipating a potentially comfortable win for the 2022 Champion, but Anna Kalinskaya can play her part in front of a big crowd and this might be a match that features at least two very competitive sets.

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Xin Yu Wang: She reached the Wimbledon Semi Final in 2019, but Elina Svitolina had different priorities to deal with off the court which meant her World Ranking had dropped and a Wild Card was needed last year.

In a stunning run, Elina Svitolina was able to reach the Semi Final again and she was firmly a crowd favourite. This is still the case in 2024 and many will be hoping that Svitolina can win a maiden Grand Slam title now that the British representatives are all eliminated.

One of those players was eliminated by Xin Yu Wang in the Third Round- she came from a set down to beat Harriet Dart.

At this stage of her career, Xin Yu Wang has been known for her Doubles play rather than her Singles performances, but reaching the Fourth Round at Wimbledon means another jump in her World Ranking is expected at the conclusion of the tournament. Another victory will give Wang an opportunity to move into the World's top 32 and that would mean a potential Seeding when the US Open begins at the end of August.

Winning this Fourth Round match will be challenging for Xin Yu Wang when you think of the amount of tennis already played in the tournament. She has needed three sets in all three wins at Wimbledon and there were signs that Wang was struggling in her eventual win over Harriet Dart, who will feel she missed her chances to earn the victory in the Third Round.

Elina Svitolina should have the confidence to take the opportunities after consecutive straight sets win with the latter against Ons Jabeur looking like strong form. It was the eventual Wimbledon Champion who beat Elina Svitolina last year in the Semi Final, but she has been able to fly a little more under the radar in 2024 and that has only been a benefit for the World Number 21.

There was not a lot of positive form ahead of the Wimbledon tournament, but that was the case last year and Elina Svitolina can find a way to break down an opponent who has already invested a lot at this event.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina-Anna Kalinskaya Over 20.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 14-14, - 3.56 Units (56 Units Staked, - 6.36% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 6 Picks 2023 (July 8th)

The good news is that Wimbledon is finally back on schedule with half of the Third Round matches completed and the other half set to be played on Saturday.

Unfortunately the bad news is that the poor weather is set to return to South West London in the coming days and it could lead to more frustrations for those on the outside courts. The Doubles events at Wimbledon are going to be most affected, but the Singles event will also be severely impacted if we get anything like the poor weather we have seen earlier this week.

Day 6 does look like a day in which there are going to be moments when players need to come on and off court, but that may be good news for some of those in the draw who have already been playing catch up without earning any kind of break.

We are close to the second week of the tournament when a large majority of the Singles matches can be scheduled for the two courts that have a roof, which is a major bonus, but the next couple of days are still fairly busy and it might just mean more frustration for those who have not had the benefit of playing on Centre Court or Court One.

Friday was a difficult day for British Tennis fans with all three players in the Gentlemen's draw exiting within a couple of hours,

Liam Broady played well, but could not quite match the intensity he had in the win over Casper Ruud as he slipped to a four set defeat, while Cameron Norrie will be extremely disappointed in losing in four sets to Christopher Eubanks twelve months after making the Semi Final here.

Most disappointing may be the defeat suffered by Andy Murray in the Second Round.

The former two time Champion was genuinely distraught at going out as early as he has at Wimbledon and Andy Murray was speaking like someone who is going to be considering whether he wants to keep playing professional tennis. My feeling is that he was speaking in the heat of the moment after a very tight loss, but Andy Murray has shown again that there is still enough quality in his tennis to believe he can yet have an impact at the very highest level.

His return is not at the level it was when he won three Grand Slam titles and getting that back will not be easy, but Murray will hopefully have a couple of weeks off and then look for a strong couple of runs ahead of the US Open to get back into the Seeding positions for the major tournaments. This will certainly help him build himself into tournaments in the future and he can return to Wimbledon in 2024 with a bit more confidence a higher level, but it is a tough sport and Murray will have to work out whether he really wants to put in the work to improve the results.

Regardless, Andy Murray has made his mark on the sport and I do hope we still have more moments to enjoy before he does call time on his career.

It was a tough day for the Tennis Picks, but the winners eventually begun to come together to keep the totals in a positive place.

More work has to be done to make sure the third Grand Slam of the season can finish with a winning record and the tournament still has eight days to run before the 2023 Champions are decided.

Below you can see the selections from Day 6 at the tournament when the remainder of the Third Round is set to be played, weather permitting, and the totals are now completely updated with the tournament back on track.

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: An unfamiliar home player caused Daniil Medvedev one or two problems in the First Round, but most anticipated a much tougher battle for the former World Number 1 in the Second Round. This time he was taking on a grass court specialist in Adrian Mannarino and a player who holds multiple wins over Daniil Medvedev on the surface.

He might not have given himself a very high grade for the First Round win, but Daniil Medvedev was impressive in dismissing Mannarino in straight sets. The serve looks to be working pretty effectively on the grass, despite poor results in the warm up events and Daniil Medvedev has shown in the past that he is a capable performer at Wimbledon, although he has only made the second week once before.

The loss in 2021 to Hubert Hurkacz in the Fourth Round really stung Daniil Medvedev, but he looks to be in a decent section from which he can reach the Quarter Final for the first time at the very least.

Once again the Number 3 Seed is going to have to show focus and avoid allowing frustration to set in as he takes on another solid grass court player in Marton Fucsovics. In 2021, the Hungarian reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon, but the former Junior Champion at The Championships has otherwise a surprisingly poor record on the grass considering the game he possesses.

Injuries have not helped the World Ranking, but the Number 67 Ranked player is set for a positive move in those standings having won two matches at Wimbledon. Marton Fucsovics has impressed having dropped a single set and he reached the Final in Stuttgart after coming through the Qualifiers in preparation for Wimbledon this year.

The return has been a big weapon for Marton Fucsovics in his first two wins in the draw, while he showed that he can really back up his serve in his wins over Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz last month. Marton Fucsovics also holds a win over Daniil Medvedev at a Grand Slam event when beating the Russian at the French Open in 2020, but this is a different kind of test for him and much will depend on how many first serves Fucsovics can get into play.

You know Daniil Medvedev will be happy to sit deep in the court and try and get as many balls back into play and see if he can wear down his opponent and that has proven to be an effective plan in his two wins.

As long as Medvedev serves as he has been in the first two Rounds, the feeling is that he can ride through a couple of tough opening sets before seeing Marton Fucsovics perhaps just melt away in what is expected to be cooler conditions at Wimbledon on Saturday.

Alexander Zverev v Matteo Berrettini: If the conditions are as wet as some are forecasting, it could mean this Third Round match is going to be played under the roof on Court One and that should only increase the chances of this being a big-serving match.

Regardless of an indoor or outdoor setting, both Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini have certainly been getting plenty out of their serve in their first two wins this week at Wimbledon.

Both have been impacted by the weather and it does mean they are playing a lot more tennis on successive days than they would be used to under the Grand Slam schedule. Both are going to be playing for a third day in a row, although Matteo Berrettini's First Round match was played over three days, while Alexander Zverev was forced to wait until Thursday to hit a ball in anger for the first time in competitive action at Wimbledon.

Matteo Berrettini is a former Wimbledon Finalist and he has won multiple titles on the grass courts, while wins over Lorenzo Sonego and Alex De Minaur have to be respected at Wimbledon. The form has been somewhat surprising considering Matteo Berrettini was forced to miss much of the clay court season and was well beaten in his only warm up match played on the grass, but the Italian is clearly enjoying being back at Wimbledon after missing out in 2022 when impacted by Covid.

His record on the grass and at Wimbledon is considerably superior to Alexander Zverev, but the latter has won both matches having dropped a single set and was a relatively comfortable winner in the Second Round. It should mean Alexander Zverev has plenty left in the tank despite getting ready to play his third full match on consecutive days, while a run to the Semi Final in Halle to follow his Semi Final run at the French Open will have restored some confidence.

Serving has been key for both of these players and there is every chance that we are going to see a potentially long match with tie-breakers needed to separate the two in this big Third Round match.

If Matteo Berrettini had been playing more tennis of late, he might have been an appealing player to back on the surface. However, it has long felt like Alexander Zverev has the tools to be an effective grass court player, while the German has won three of the four completed matches played between these two and also was leading Matteo Berrettini at the Tour Finals in November 2021 before the latter had to retire mid-match.

In their previous matches, Alexander Zverev's serve has been the more effective with holds in 90% of service games played compared with Matteo Berrettini's 80% mark. While none of those have been on the grass, which is Berrettini's favourite surface, the feeling is that Alexander Zverev will offer the most significant test of the Italian's fitness and can break him down over four or five sets.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tommy Paul @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Holger Rune - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Christopher Eubanks - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 42-34, + 6.88 Units (152 Units Staked, + 4.53% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2022 (July 8th)

One upset and one favourite earned their path into the Ladies Singles Final at Wimbledon to be played on Saturday and now the Men get to work out who will be rounding out the tournament for another year on Sunday.

Another solid day for the Tennis Picks has seen a big bounce back from the poor Day 9 showing, and hopefully I have at least three more winners to come. 

At the time of writing the news about Rafael Nadal's withdrawal had not been confirmed so you can ignore the second selection.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Cameron Norrie: There were a couple of moments in the Quarter Final when it felt like Novak Djokovic was not going to find the intensity he needed to avoid losing his first match at Wimbledon since 2018. Dropping the first two sets is never an ideal position to be in, but Novak Djokovic largely dominated Jannik Sinner from that stage and he was never in a position where he was behind by a break on the scoreboard in the final three sets.

Some potential fatigue could have been a factor in this Semi Final if his opponent had eased through the last Round, but Cameron Norrie had a much more arduous and stressful passage into the last four. The British Number 1 has become one of a handful of male players to reach the last four at Wimbledon and Cameron Norrie has to pick himself up from a rollercoaster back and forth Quarter Final win of his own.

While Novak Djokovic's situation was clear after falling into a 0-2 hole, Cameron Norrie had rallied to win the second set before finding himself 2-1 behind against David Goffin. And unlike the top Seed in the draw, Cameron Norrie had to battle very hard to win the final set which needed almost the full thirteen games and a Super Tie-Breaker to decide the winner.

Cameron Norrie has played some solid tennis in the tournament, but there have been too many tight matches against players that are significantly below the level that Novak Djokovic can bring to the court. The lefty serve should give him an advantage, but Norrie has not been completely convincing behind serve with both Jaume Munar and David Goffin breaking the serve five times.

The return numbers have also declined in each of the last three Rounds and that could be an issue against Novak Djokovic who is likely going to exert plenty of pressure with his own return.

Their sole previous match at the ATP Finals will be a reminder for Cameron Norrie as to how important it is for him to serve well- he was blitzed by Novak Djokovic that day and managed to win just three games.

I am not expecting a complete blow out in this one with the Centre Court crowd firmly behind the home player, but I do think Novak Djokovic is the far superior player on grass at this stage of their careers. Both are coming in off tough Quarter Final wins, but Novak Djokovic has been much more deadly on the return of serve and I do think that will make the difference in this match as he slowly quietens the crowd and moves clear of Cameron Norrie in what I am expecting to be a straight sets win.

Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 sets v Rafael Nadal: One of the most remarkable moments of the tennis season was seen on Wednesday as Rafael Nadal overcame an early injury, had to change up his service action to avoid being in pain and then recovered from 2-1 down against Taylor Fritz to win the match in five sets.

There was no doubt that this family, namely father and sister, were making gestures as early as the second set for Rafael Nadal to withdraw from his Quarter Final, but this is a 22 time Grand Slam Champion and he showed all of that to somehow win that match. Taylor Fritz will have regrets, while Rafael Nadal is reported to have a tear in the abdomen region, although feels he can play through the pain and take part in the Semi Final.

It would have been a tough match up for Rafael Nadal even at full health against the enigmatic Australian Nick Kyrgios who has put together some very strong tennis to reach his first ever Grand Slam Semi Final.

For many, the biggest obstacle in front of Nick Kyrgios is Nick Kyrgios- there is no doubt that some of his on court antics wind up the opponent, but he is just as likely to wind himself up and make some poor decisions which prove to be costly.

However, with a serve like he has, Nick Kyrgios has to feel he can get on the front foot and really test Rafael Nadal's movement on this surface. He also has previous of beating Nadal at Wimbledon with the two sharing a win apiece in SW19 and Nick Kyrgios does tend to raise his game when going up against some of the stronger players on the Tour.

Nick Kyrgios has three wins over Rafael Nadal and matches between these two have tended to be close and competitive thanks to the huge serve possessed by the former. With Rafael Nadal perhaps struggling with injury, Nick Kyrgios may feel he has more scope to put together some strong returns and I do think he is going to make his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.

I do have to say that Nick Kyrgios has felt like he has been winning matches on the tight margins because he does have a weaker than average return game, while he did not serve as well as he would have liked in the last Round. However, I do think he will be extra motivated in facing a player he has had issues with in the past and Nick Kyrgios has held 93% of his service games against Rafael Nadal in the two grass court matches between them.

With an injury weakening the defending Australian and French Open Champion, Nick Kyrgios can take advantage and win this one in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 53-45, + 8.12 Units (196 Units Staked, + 4.14% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2021 (July 8th)

The Euro 2020 Finals and the run the England national team have been on has made it more difficult to write out longer posts for the last few days at Wimbledon.

Other aspects of my personal life have been busier too, but I have had time to research the selections for the Women's Semi Finals which are played on Wednesday. Expect a longer post for Thursday's Men's Semi Finals and for the two Finals to be played over the weekend.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber + 3.5 Games @ 

Karolina Pliskova-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 60-48, + 11.38 Units (216 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2019 (July 8th)

The only Grand Slam event that plays the entire Fourth Round on a single day means there is no Tennis on Sunday. Manic Monday is considered one of the finest days on the Tour with so many quality matches being played over a several hour period and Wimbledon has to be very proud of the line up that is in front of them in 2019.

In the last few years the men's game has perhaps been leading the headlines on Manic Monday, but this year it really does feel like the women's Fourth Round is the more interesting Round of the two being played.

There are some big matches ahead in the men's draw that will definitely earn the headlines later in the week, but I think the women's tournament has lived up to top billing too and this is going to be a fun second week of Wimbledon.


The Tennis Picks have had a decent first week at the tournament and I have to be happy with the position they are in going into the second. There is still considerable work to do to ensure the tournament ends with another positive return to add to the season totals, so this is not the time to lose focus.

You can see the tournament totals below as well as the selections from the Fourth Round matches which are all scheduled to be played on Monday.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Benoit Paire: Reaching the second week at Wimbledon for a second time in his career means this is the best Slam for Benoit Paire. He also managed to reach the Fourth Round at the French Open a few weeks ago and the Frenchman is going to be improving his current World Ranking while also chasing his first ever Quarter Final at a Grand Slam.

Standing in his way is Roberto Bautista Agut who had a very impressive win over Karen Khachanov in the Third Round. The Spaniard is yet to drop a set at Wimbledon and will be playing in the Fourth Round here for a third time. Roberto Bautista Agut managed to reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open in January, his first appearance in a Grand Slam Quarter Final, and I do think both players will be feeling some nerves with the draw that is open in front of them.

You have to believe the dominant head to head in favour of Bautista Agut is going to play a part in the way the match shakes up. Their one previous match at Wimbledon saw Bautista Agut come from 2-0 down in sets to win in five sets, but that is part of eight straight wins Bautista Agut has had over Paire.

The last match between the two was in January 2017, but Bautista Agut has had a big advantage when it comes to holding serve in previous matches. While he has held 86% of his service games, Benoit Paire is at 63% and I do think this is going to play a part in this match.

Over the last twelve months Bautista Agut has held 93% of his service games played on the grass courts prior to this tournament and he has broken in 24% of return games. In SW19, Bautista Agut has won at least 73% of service points played in each of his three matches and even more impressive is the fact he has been broken just once and not faced a break point in either of the last two Rounds.

Benoit Paire is someone who can get plenty out of his serve on the grass courts so that has to be respected. However he has not been able to get as much from his return of serve as he would have liked and I do think a player like Bautista Agut is going to be have the edge on that side of his game which does end up making a difference on the day.

The Frenchman has held 83% of his service games on the grass courts over the last twelve months prior to Wimbledon. He has remained strong on that side of his game in this tournament, but Paire only breaks serve in 17% of return games and he has struggled for breaks in the last couple of Rounds. I do think Paire will have some success against the Bautista Agut serve, but the latter has enjoyed this match up and has had the edge in those previous matches by a considerable margin when it comes to protecting the serve.

While it is a big number to cover in the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam, I think Bautista Agut can be backed to do that.


Kei Nishikori - 6.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: Back to back upsets over John Isner and Jan-Lennard Struff has seen Mikhail Kukushkin reach the second week at Wimbledon for the first time in his career. In fact this is only the second time the Kazakhstan player has made the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam with the first appearance being back in the Australian Open of 2012.

It is going to take another big upset for Kukushkin to make the Quarter Final and prevent Kei Nishikori from making the final eight in consecutive seasons at Wimbledon. If Kei Nishikori is able to win, he will have made the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the fifth major in a row, although he is yet to convert those into a Semi Final at any Slam other than the US Open.

Kei Nishikori decided he would not play any grass court tennis in the lead up to Wimbledon this year, but he has been impressive in the tournament so far. The comfortable Third Round win over Steve Johnson was impressive as Nishikori has continued to serve very well and allowed his solid return game to look after itself.

The serve can be a vulnerability, but Nishikori has only been broken four times in three Rounds at Wimbledon and he has won at least 72% of service points in each Round. In fact Nishikori has improved in each Round with 72% of service points won in the First Round followed by 75% in the Second Round and 78% in the Third Round. The Japanese star has broken in at least three return games in each of the last three Rounds and the strong serving has allowed Nishikori to dominate in his wins.

It is a big challenge in front of Mikhail Kukushkin who was fortunate to beat Jan-Lennard Struff in the last Round. He has shown resilience by edging out John Isner in five sets and then keeping Struff held out in four sets, but spending six and a half hours on court in the last couple of Rounds will have sapped some of the energy.

He is also under some pressure knowing Nishikori has won all nine previous matches on the Tour which have taken place between 2011 and 2018. It is impossible to ignore the fact that Mikhail Kukushkin has held just 63% of his service games played against Kei Nishikori, while the latter has managed to hold onto 87% of his service games in those head to heads.

Their sole previous match at Wimbledon came in 2012 and Kei Nishikori was a comfortable straight sets winner as he produced the much better serving on the day. Mikhail Kukushin's serving on the grass over the last twelve months heading into Wimbledon saw him hold less than 80% of his service games played and I think Kei Nishikori is going to get into enough of those to find the breaks to win and cover the handicap mark in this one.

This is a big mark, but I can see Nishikori wearing down Kukushkin and winning one of the sets with a couple of breaks of serve more than in his opponent while producing a straight sets victory on the day. That should be enough to set him up to cover the line in this one and I do think there is enough productive serving and returning from Kei Nishikori over the last week to keep the head to head numbers similar to where they have been. Those numbers should give him every chance to cover on the form shown so far in SW19.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Joao Sousa: The first week of the tournament in Wimbledon looked to be a real test of the resolve Rafael Nadal would have on the grass courts, but he has overcome all of those challenges on his way to the Fourth Round. Three wins have come with a single set being dropped and Nadal beating the likes of Nick Kyrgios and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga on the grass courts will have stood him in good stead to take on the second week of Wimbledon.

On paper this may not look a difficult match as the last two Rounds, but Joao Sousa has been playing well enough to be respected. In the build up to this tournament he was holding in 90% of the service games he played on the grass courts and he was winning 71% of the points won behind serve.

Those numbers continued to look impressive in the first two Rounds at Wimbledon, but the Portuguese player was pushed by Dan Evans in the Third Round. Joao Sousa has put a win over a talented grass courter in Marin Cilic in the books with a strong display on both the serve and the return, but in the Third Round win over Evans it was a much to do with the British player's inability to take the chances that were in front of him as it had to do with the performance produced by Sousa.

Being out on the court for almost four hours is not ideal preparation for a Fourth Round match with someone like Rafael Nadal who continues to play some strong grass court tennis. In the last couple of years he has been very good on the surface and was very close to winning Wimbledon twelve months ago, but the Spaniard's wins this year show he is perhaps ready to return to title winning ways in SW19.

Rafael Nadal has won 70% of points behind serve in each of his three matches at Wimbledon, but those numbers have been improving in each passing Round. It won't surprise anyone that a player like Nadal who takes every point as seriously as if his life depends on winning it has been as good on the return as he has with only the match against Nick Kyrgios being problematic after the Australian produced some of his biggest serving.

Since June 2017 Rafael Nadal has broken in 26% of return games played on the grass courts and he has produced thirteen breaks of serve in this tournament so far. That keeps his numbers steady with breaks in 27% of return games played at Wimbledon 2019 and I do think Nadal is going to be able to wear down Sousa and perhaps keep him under constant pressure.

These two players have only met twice before on the Tour and the last of those was over three years ago in May 2016. They have played five sets and Rafael Nadal has held Joao Sousa to one or fewer games in three of those sets. Rafael Nadal has broken in 50% of return games played against Joao Sousa and has held 95% of service games he has played in those two matches and I think the Spaniard can be backed to win and cover a huge number for a Fourth Round match at a Grand Slam.


Matteo Berrettini-Roger Federer over 34.5 games: When the draw was made for Wimbledon at the end of last month the match that looked like it could potentially be a real obstacle in front of former eight time Wimbledon Champion Roger Federer was this one.

Matteo Berrettini has had a stunning year all around to move into the top 20 of the World Rankings, while he has been one of the stand out players over the last month on the grass courts. He was one of the Seeds I was interested seeing in what section of the draw he would land and the Italian has found his way through to the Fourth Round as expected.

Less expected has been the awkwardness of some of the wins Berrettini has produced at the tournament having needed four sets to beat Aljaz Bedene and then five sets to overcome Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. The Italian came from 2-1 down in sets to overcome Schwartzman in the last Round as he saw off the lower Seeded player, but it is not ideal to have been forced to have had to dig in as deep as he had to.

He will be feeling a little disappointed the match took as long as it did as Berrettini served for the first set at 6-5 before losing that on a tie-breaker and missed out on Set Points in the second set before needing to come through another pressurised breaker. The serve just about held itself together in the Third Round win over the dangerous Schwartzman, but Matteo Berrettini will be the first to admit he will need to be at his very best behind that shot to have a chance to win a match of this scale.

Going into the tournament Matteo Berrettini had held 98% of service games played on the grass and he has managed to hold 91% of those games played at Wimbledon. It has continued to allow some freedom for Berrettini on the return of serve, although breaking the Roger Federer serve is always going to be a challenge on the grass courts considering how well the Swiss player has been serving.

Roger Federer has only been broken in two games in his three matches at Wimbledon and since June 2016 he has managed to hold 93% of the service games played on the grass courts. The return has been a declining part of the Federer game and that has to be an area in which Matteo Berrettini has to take advantage with his own ability to look after serve.

Nerves are going to be a factor in this one as Berrettini continues to build on what has been his best Grand Slam performance to date. To try and beat Roger Federer on a grass court at Wimbledon is going to be difficult to put to the back of the mind and that is my one concern in making the selection I have.

Much is going to depend on early in the match- if Berrettini can settle down and get into a rhythm on the serve I do think he can make life tough for Roger Federer. The latter deserves to be a favourite, but even covering the handicap mark will be difficult if Matteo Berrettini does bring his best tennis to the court and I do think the Italian can make his mark even if he falls short.

A strong serving day from Matteo Berrettini will help this Fourth Round match reach a position where we should see the total games line surpassed. I know Roger Federer will be difficult to break, but if Berrettini is able to serve well he could steal a set and force a couple of tie-breakers which will give the match every opportunity of moving over the total games line in this one.


Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Karolina Muchova: Four of the final sixteen players in the women's draw at Wimbledon come from the Czech Republic and this Fourth Round match is going to guarantee at least one player from that country making it through to the Quarter Final.

Two Karolinas from the Czech Republic meet as Muchova and Pliskova clash on Monday. The younger of the two players is Karolina Muchova who has reached a peak Ranking in recent days and she has reached her best Grand Slam result already and so could be feeling there isn't much for her to lose by taking it to the veteran.

Karolina Pliskova had never reached the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam and people had been doubting her before her breakthrough at the US Open in 2016 when finishing as Runner Up. Since then Pliskova has reached the Quarter Final in six of the next ten Grand Slam events being played, although she is looking to do that at Wimbledon for the first time in 2019.

Her experience will certainly give the confidence to crack another barrier on the Tour and Pliskova will also be full of confidence having won the title in Eastbourne just a couple of days before Wimbledon began. The serve has been a huge reason for her successes on the grass with the first serve being a particularly dominant shot for Pliskova and that continues to be the case for the most part at Wimbledon despite the slower conditions at the club.

The return of serve has also been working very well for Pliskova and she certainly has every chance of going all the way and winning the title here out of the weaker bottom half of the draw. However, Karolina Muchova has to be playing with a lot of confidence thanks to the strong performances over the last week and she won't be easy to knock off here.

It has been something of a surprise run from Muchova when you think of her previous performances on the grass, but she has been serving well and that will give her an opportunity to try and shift the pressure onto Pliskova. The serving has given Muchova a chance to attack the return with success and we have certainly seen more from her than previously on this surface, although having the same success against the Pliskova serve will be far from easy.

These two players met at the Australian Open back in January and Pliskova was able to really hurt Muchova on the return of serve. On that day Karolina Pliskova also won 71% of service points played and created ten break points against the Karolina Muchova serve.

In this tournament Muchova has been broken three times compared with Pliskova's serve being broken five times, but I think the match up should favour the older Czech player. This is a tough mental spot for Muchova who may have looked up to the likes of Pliskova and Petra Kvitova when getting onto the Tour, and that may also play a part in this match.

Much will depend on the Pliskova serve, but if she has a good day on that side of her game I would think she has enough power in the return to hurt the Muchova second serve and then cover the handicap mark in the match.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: Any time a twenty-three time Grand Slam Champion reaches the second week of a tournament then you know other players around the draw will be sitting up and paying keen attention. Most will suggest they only take it 'one match at a time' and that they don't focus on other results, but Serena Williams coming through the first week at Wimbledon will have been very difficult to ignore.

This Fourth Round match should be a good one for Williams on paper as she has dominated Carla Suarez Navarro in their previous six matches on the Tour. The last of those was back in 2015 when Serena Williams was arguably a different player, but I don't think it is worth ignoring the fact that Suarez Navarro has yet to win more than three games in a single set against the former World Number 1.

The American was not at her fluent best in the first couple of Rounds at Wimbledon, but the performance in seeing off Julia Goerges in the Third Round was very impressive. Serena Williams has held 85% of service games played in the tournament and she has won at least 65% of service points in each of her three matches here, but in the last Round she did not face a break point and I do think there is a feeling that she is peaking as we head into the second week of the tournament.

The breaks have been coming pretty regularly for Williams in the last seven days too and I do think her power has every chance of imprinting on the Suarez Navarro serve. While the Spaniard has been able to come through her matches without dropping a set, she has been broken seven times already and the fact that Serena Williams has won 58% of the points played on the Suarez Navarro serve in their previous matches has to be a big concern.

In their previous six matches, five of them have seen Serena Williams avoid being broken. That might not be the case when these two meet in the Fourth Round, but I do think Serena Williams will have too much in this match up and she should be able to dominate the return to the extent of being in a position to win and cover the handicap in the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Roger Federer Over 34.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Barbora Strycova @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin-Fernando Verdasco Over 37.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Guido Pella-Milos Raonic Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 40-31, + 11.78 Units (142 Units Staked, + 8.30% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 6 Picks 2017 (July 8th)

I have to begin this thread by saying I am a little irritated with the lack of luck some of my picks have had in the last couple of days. The numbers have pointed to what should have been successful picks, but players have not been as clinical as their opponents when it has come to the break points.

Marin Cilic's win over Steve Johnson kind of summed things up.

Cilic dominated Johnson, completely outplayed him from start to finish barring two blips on serve which were both gobbled up by the American. Yet Johnson kept saving break point after break point under pressure and somehow only lost by a margin of five games despite constantly being under the cosh.

It happens and the only positive for me is that it was clearly the right selection that needed a sprinkling of luck to come in.

Karen Khachanov needed that same sprinkling of luck when he was cruelly denied a chance to break serve in the third set of his loss to Rafael Nadal. I have to credit the young Russian who is showing all of the signs of being able to become a real force on the Tour. Consistency will come with the more matches he plays, but Khachanov returns very well too and is more than just a big serving baseliner and I am a big fan of his.

The one positive so far is that the outright selections have almost all made it into the second week and look in a decent nick going into that. Angelique Kerber and Novak Djokovic both play on Saturday, and are favoured to progress, and it would give me a chance to get this Wimbledon tournament back on track for the picks.

Andy Murray did make it harder than it perhaps should have been when getting past Fabio Fognini, but that says more about the kind of enigmatic character Fognini is. Now he has the weekend to rest before an assault on another Wimbledon title which is what every player who is in action on Monday will be thinking to themselves.


Milos Raonic - 6.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: A former Wimbledon Finalist will always be respected when back on the lawns in SW19 and Milos Raonic is quietly going through the draw. He has not been completely convincing, although anyone who has a serve as big as the Canadian is going to be a real threat on this surface.

Facing this serve is going to be a real challenge for Albert Ramos-Vinolas who had to battle through five sets to earn his own place in the Third Round. There is no doubt the Spaniard is not completely comfortable on the grass and he does tend to have issues when facing top ten players who just have a little more in the locker compared with Ramos-Vinolas himself.

Ramos-Vinolas is 1-8 when facing a top ten opponent in Grand Slam events, although that was a win over Raonic in Paris. However beating Raonic on the clay is a completely different task as to facing him on the grass and Ramos-Vinolas is 0-3 when facing a top ten player at Wimbledon where his return issues on this surface are most highlighted.

There is a feeling around that Raonic is not at 100% which does make it dangerous to back him here, and especially when asking him to cover what is a very big amount of games for a returner who does struggle. However he hasn't been returning too badly over the last few weeks on grass and now faces Ramos-Vinolas whose serve can be put under real pressure.

It shouldn't be a factor, but Ramos-Vinolas did spend some time out on court in the heat of Thursday having to come through a five set match. He is a clay courter so has to be used to some long matches, but it can be at the back of the mind if Ramos-Vinolas falls a couple of sets behind which may give Raonic the chance for a double break of serve in the final set.

Raonic's serve should keep him in front for much of the match and I think he can come through this one with a 6-3, 7-6, 6-2 kind of win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Dudi Sela: This might initially look like a disrespectful amount of games being given to Dudi Sela considering how well he has played on the grass courts over the last few weeks. He has reached the Quarter Final at one Challenger and won another, while the two wins Sela has had here this week might indicate that he is feeling very good about himself.

The way he battled back to beat John Isner was impressive, although Isner is not as strong on the grass as most would think. This time Sela is facing a real grass court player in Grigor Dimitrov who has played some very strong tennis already this week with the serve and return both in good order.

I still don't consider Dimitrov a real contender to win the title at Wimbledon because I would like to see more out of his return game in general. However that hasn't been a problem for him so far this week as he has won at least 46% of the points against the serve and more impressive is the conversion rate of break points that have come his way.

Those wins over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Marcos Baghdatis have improved Dimitrov's record to 9-1 at Wimbledon when facing players outside the top 50 in the World Rankings like he will be playing on Saturday. His return numbers are actually much better in those matches than they are in general on the grass and I think Dimitrov will be able to exert some real pressure on Sela.

As much as I respect the wins Sela has had over the last few weeks which is going to improve his confidence, the Israeli has struggled when facing players who are inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. Sela's return game is solid enough to cause some problems if he is able to find the right connections and Dimitrov's serve can sometimes see the Bulgarian break down, but it is the Sela serve which really gets dominated against the best players.

I expect Dimitrov will be able to get into a few of the Sela service games and it will take something special from the latter to improve his 1-15 record against top 20 opponents in Grand Slam matches. It will be tough for Sela to keep holding serve in this one and I think Dimitrov will work his way through to a 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 win to move into the second week.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Mischa Zverev: It seems unlikely that Mischa Zverev is coming into this Third Round match at full health having really been struggling two days ago in his five set win over Mikhail Kukushkin. He needed to see the trainer that day and Zverev was on the brink of being beaten from 2-0 up in sets, and now the challenge in front of him is arguably as difficult as it can get when he faces Roger Federer.

These two played out a close match in Halle a couple of weeks ago, although that was mainly because Zverev was able to serve his way out of trouble on a couple of occasions. That is also a potential with the German who will serve and volley all day, but Federer will know exactly what is coming and he has played well against left-handers in 2017 which should mean he is able to move through relatively easily.

The question is whether Federer can do enough to break down the Zverev game and cover what is a big number. He managed to do that in Melbourne at the Australian Open as he crushed Zverev for the loss of just eight games, and Federer has been serving so well that it is hard to imagine him being broken more than a couple of times over a three set win.

Federer has some really impressive numbers when facing opponents who are Ranked outside the top 20 and it is in these matches that Federer really does return effectively enough to earn his breaks. He will know what Zverev is going to do and Federer should be able to make things awkward enough for the German to find a way to get into rallies and create the angles to pass him at the net.

It has been tough for Zverev to match the very best players and his record against top 5 players shows that with his serve being not as impactful as he would like. That may happen in this one too and I am not sure he is going to see too many chances on the Federer serve to escape a 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 kind of loss.


Dominic Thiem - 6.5 games v Jared Donaldson: The grass courts are proving to be a puzzle that Dominic Thiem has yet to really solve, but he has shown that he can still produce a heavy hitting game on the surface. His two wins here at Wimbledon have come against players that many would consider solid grass court opponents, and Thiem has come through with relative comfort in those matches.

Thiem has been returning well and the only negative for him in the first week here is that he has not converted the break points at an efficient rate as he would have liked.

If Thiem does make it through to the second week in London, there are going to be some big tests ahead for him, but Jared Donaldson may not be as tough as some players could be once you reach the Third Round of a Slam. Donaldson's performances of the grass still need work too, and a real issue has been that he does not get enough from the serve to put pressure on opponents.

That should mean Thiem, who has been returning well enough, should once again be in a position to earn the majority of break points in this match. His serve still gets some pop off the surface, but the Austrian tries to be a little too aggressive which means he may give Donaldson some chances too, although the American's returning numbers on grass have generally not been that strong.

Donaldson might be more of a challenge for players over the coming weeks when the Tour moves to the United States hard courts, but this might not be the surface for him where he struggles for his rhythm. It was Thiem who beat Donaldson fairly comfortably on the clay courts of Madrid a couple of months ago, and Donaldson is yet to really compete with opponents in the top ten of the World Rankings.

This is the weakest of the surfaces for Thiem, but Donaldson is only in the Third Round thanks to a very kind draw and I think the Austrian wins this one 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.


Tomas Berdych - 6.5 games v David Ferrer: The poor returning at the big moments were once again on display from Tomas Berdych who had to expend more energy on the court on Thursday than he needed to. That was all because he dropped the third set against Ryan Harrison despite serving for the match, but Berdych has still made his way through to the Third Round on Saturday.

It is clear to most that Berdych is simply not returning as well as he once did and that is likely to be a real factor once we get into the second week and the big opponents stand in front of him. It will be an issue in matches over the next few months too and is something to keep in mind when Berdych is being asked to cover some big numbers against better players than the ones he has faced this week.

In this Third Round match he faces a fellow veteran in David Ferrer who has significantly gone backwards in both his return and service games. The Spaniard doesn't hold serve easily at all these days and Berdych will feel he still possesses the power on the serve to put Ferrer under all kinds of pressure in this one.

Berdych has got the better of recent matches between these two and I do think a strong serving day, which Berdych does still produce for the most part, will set him up for what could be a relatively straight-forward win. You can see the steady decline in the Ferrer number over the last twelve months and I think he has had his moment at Wimbledon when surprising Richard Gasquet in the First Round.

It will be a huge surprise if he can win this one too and I think Berdych gets the better of an opponent who is 2-9 when facing top 20 Ranked players since the beginning of the 2016 season. Once upon a time Ferrer would be a real challenge for any player on the Tour but he breaks considerably less than he did and finds it much more difficult to hold onto his serve against the top players.

I think Berdych can return just well enough to crack the Ferrer serve a few times on his way to a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 win and a place in the second week at Wimbledon yet again. You can get the 5.5 handicap, but I think the numbers point to a slightly easier day for Berdych and I will back the odds against quotes that he covers an additional game.


Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: I love hearing tennis players speak with a little more honesty than the cliched responses they generally give out so it was refreshing to hear Gael Monfils say he is still not quite understanding how to perform his best on the grass. You might not have guessed that after seeing Monfils reach the Final in Eastbourne last week before two solid wins in the main draw at Wimbledon, but there is a lack of belief in his game on this surface.

Usually I would think someone like Adrian Mannarino could be under-rated against Monfils, but the number of games being given to him don't seem to be enough. Mannarino is a very solid grass court player, but Monfils has dismissed his challenge at Wimbledon in the past and Mannarino has some real questions to answer about how his hip is feeling as well as trying to pick himself up from a five set win over Yuichi Sugita.

The physical and emotional effort put into that match is likely to have an effect on his performance in the Third Round as the heat keeps sweltering in London. And it has to be noted that as well as Mannarino has played on the grass, he has yet to really bridge the gap to the opponents he has played who have been in the top 20 of the World Rankings.

Mannarino is 1-8 in those matches on the grass, including losing to Alexander Zverev and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Hertogenbosch and Queens respectively in June. He has struggled to make the returns to get into a position to break serve as well as he can do on the grass and Mannarino isn't going to win too many matches with less than 70% service holds and under 59% of the points won behind serve on any grass court.

Now he has to face Monfils who has at least produced slightly better numbers on the grass over the last month than his career in general on this surface. Even if he doesn't say it himself, Monfils has to be playing with more confidence, while the Frenchman is also 10-1 in Grand Slam matches against left-handed players not called Rafael Nadal.

In 9/10 of those wins Monfils has covered this number of games and that includes a win over Mannarino here two years ago. While the latter has had some results on the grass, I am looking for Monfils to continue into the second week with a 6-3, 7-6, 6-4 win.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: It feels like a lifetime ago that Ernests Gulbis was amongst the elite of the ATP Tour, but injuries and a loss of form have seen him slip way down the World Rankings. The two wins this week are going to be very important for Gulbis as he bids to move back up the Rankings, but it is a surprise to see Gulbis performing as well as he has on the grass courts.

The win over Juan Martin Del Potro was very impressive especially in coming in straight sets and Gulbis' serve has to be respected even against the best returners on the Tour. If he is hitting his marks, Gulbis is very hard to contain on his own serve, but actually winning this match means producing the kind of returns that he is not really known for on the grass.

The return numbers have steadily declined since 2013 across the board, but Gulbis never really had a lot of success on the grass courts. Novak Djokovic will be confident having won the title in Eastbourne last week and producing a really good performance in the Second Round and he has been looking after his serve well enough to think he can keep Gulbis from getting too much from the returns.

No one will doubt the confidence Gulbis has in his own game, but I think it is still a big ask to produce the tennis he needs to make this a really competitive match. The serve is the key for him and Djokovic's returning numbers in 2017 and their decline has been a strong part of the reason that he has not performed as well as in previous years.

However Djokovic has shown he might be getting somewhere close to his best over the last couple of weeks and I do think the former World Number 1 will be a little too good for a player who hasn't had a lot of wins in recent months. Gulbis has taken some one-sided losses in that time and I think Djokovic may just wear him down as he bids for his place in the Fourth Round on Monday.

After a couple of tight sets, I will look for Djokovic to pull away in a 7-6, 6-3, 6-2 win.


Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: This match would be a really difficult one for Sorana Cirstea in normal circumstances, but she might also be dealing with the emotions of seeing what happened to Bethanie Mattek-Sands at first hand. Cirstea and Mattek-Sands are friends off the court and that would have an affect on anyone if they would see their friend lying in complete and utter pain.

We will never know who would have won the match if Mattek-Sands never suffered what looked like a brutal injury, but the numbers suggested the American was on top. The grass courts are simply not the surface that Cirstea has enjoyed and now she takes on a former Wimbledon Finalist in Garbine Muguruza who has impressed with her two wins this week.

Muguruza has struggled with her game since winning the French Open title in June 2016 and her numbers have just declined across the board compared to her overall performances in 2015 and 2016. While she has had two wins of quality this week, the Spaniard has really been up and down from day to day that you can wonder which Garbine Muguruza will take to the court on a given day.

She hasn't always performed at her best on the grass, but Muguruza has tended to produce her best at Wimbledon compared with Cirstea whose numbers have just declined slightly in matches played at Wimbledon compared with her overall grass numbers. The Romanian has really had a hard time when facing top 20 opponents on the grass as she has seen her serve being attacked and her own return game not getting the kind of traction she would want in those matches.

In Melbourne Muguruza proved she was far too good for Cirstea and I think she will frank that result. On that day the return was devastating and the serve worked wonderfully, and Muguruza may feel she can get something similar going on the grass courts although perhaps the margin is a little tighter than at the Australian Open as I expect the Spaniard to win this one 6-3, 6-4.


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 games v Polona Hercog: The grass courts have never been the favourite surface of veteran Svetlana Kuznetsova and I am not sure she really believes in her ability to win the title at Wimbledon despite the open nature of the women's draw. However she will continue to take it a match at a time as she quietly makes her way through a section of the draw that has lost some big names already.

There are still enough names that I would favour over Kuznetsova, but one of those is not Polona Hercog who has made her way through the Qualifiers and into the Third Round. You have to respect the fact she has won five straight matches on the grass, but she has not faced someone as strong as Kuznetsova who tends to be too good for the lower Ranked players in these Grand Slam events.

Hercog might be better than the Ranking suggests, but she is on her way back from injury and this is not someone who has thrived on the grass in the past either. Before this tournament, Hercog didn't have great numbers on the grass at Wimbledon and Kuznetsova has shown some really solid returning so far at this event and in general on the grass to think she can keep her opponent under pressure.

The Russian has been particularly strong when she has faced players from outside the top 100 in the World Rankings at Grand Slam events and I think Kuznetsova will be in a strong position in a number of return games. It would be nice if she can have one of her better serving days in a bid to cover this number, but it could happen against a relatively poor returner in Hercog who has beaten players she perhaps would have expected to.

When Hercog has stepped up to play top 10 Ranked players, she has a 1-17 record and has struggled in both serve and return departments. 10 of those 17 losses have come by a margin of at least six games and I think Kuznetsova can do enough in a 7-5, 6-2 win.


Alison Riske-Coco Vandeweghe three sets: Two American grass court specialists play one another for a place in the second week at Wimbledon and both Alison Riske and Coco Vandeweghe may feel this is as good a chance as they will have to win a Grand Slam Singles title.

The more likely winner of the match is Vandeweghe, but I can't shift the fact that Riske has won the last three matches and also holds a win over her on the grass courts. Riske is playing some inspired tennis of late with an under-rated serve being backed up by some impressive returning.

Playing aggressively off the ground has proved to be the winning formula for Riske, although now she faces one of the better female servers on the Tour. Vandeweghe's easy action penetrates the courts here and she will feel she can put Riske under enough pressure to see her snap in her own service games.

The numbers over the last month certainly favour Vandeweghe and Riske has been overpowered by the likes of Garbine Muguruza and Karolina Pliskova on this surface. That has to be a concern for Riske fans, but her head to head to with Vandeweghe will give her confidence and Riske has played well at Wimbledon in her career.

Riske has played seven top 30 Ranked players at Wimbledon and while she is 2-5 in those matches, all but one has gone the distance. The Vandeweghe numbers are really impressive on the grass courts, and I do think she will ultimately win this one but may have to go the distance to do so.

Usually the power hitting game of Vandeweghe doesn't produce too many deciders on the grass as she will either blitz through an opponent or make too many errors to reverse a match back in her favour. However she has won and lost a set twice over the last month on the grass and this feels like a match that may need to go all the way before we find our winner who is moving into the Fourth Round.

MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Riske-Coco Vandeweghe Three Sets @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 28-32-4, - 5.52 Units (113 Units Staked, - 4.88% Yield)