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Showing posts with label Men's Semi Final Pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Men's Semi Final Pick. Show all posts

Friday, 6 June 2025

French Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2025 (Friday 6th June)

Day 13 at the French Open is reserved for the men's Semi Final matches and we do have two solid match ups as we draw to the end of the second Grand Slam tournament of the season.

The second will certainly garner more of the sporting headlines as Novak Djokovic takes on current World Number 1 Jannik Sinner so soon after the latter returned from a three month ban for failing a drugs test last year. There are going to be a lot of interested spectators in that match, while Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti could be in line to meet in multiple more Grand Slam matches in the future, especially here at Roland Garros.


Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Novak Djokovic: While the rest of his long-term rivals have moved into retirement, 38 year old Novak Djokovic continues to push back against Father Time and he has reached another Semi Final at the French Open.

He dropped the first set of his Quarter Final against Alexander Zverev and looked to be under some pressure, but Novak Djokovic's aura still exists when it comes to facing those who have been on the Tour for a long time. You could see the belief ebbing out of Alexander Zverev at an alarming rate mid-way through the third set and he never really recovered until it was far too late.

A passive approach has been criticised with many believing that underlined the lack of belief that Alexander Zverev really had in his ability to earn the upset.

This is almost certainly not going to be the approach that the World Number 1 takes as Jannik Sinner looks to add another Grand Slam to his collection.

His three month suspension was followed by an immediate run to the Rome Masters Final, which showed Jannik Sinner has not missed much of a beat. Since arriving in Paris, Jannik Sinner has made it his business to not only win matches, but to win in such dominant style to really lay down a marker to his main rivals and you have to say he has achieved that and more.

The numbers have been stunning- Jannik Sinner has been serving at a high elite level, but he has been backing that up with aggressive returning and his recent opponents have not been able to live with him.

In saying all of that, Jannik Sinner will know that Novak Djokovic represents a significant upgrade in level of opponent and the former World Number 1 is on a decent winning run having won the title in Geneva just prior to the French Open beginning. There have been a couple of moments when Djokovic has been pushed, but the Olympic Gold Medal winner has looked very comfortable back here at Roland Garros and he will have taken plenty of positives out of the Quarter Final win.

At the same time, Novak Djokovic will have to be at close to full strength to match the intensity and power that Jannik Sinner is going to be bringing onto the court. Unlike Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner is not going to lose faith in the heavy groundstrokes that have taken him to the top of the men's game and further confidence can be taken from the fact he has beaten Novak Djokovic in each of the last three matches between them.

That includes crushing Djokovic on his favoured court at the Australian Open in 2024, while the improved Jannik Sinner serve has not even faced a Break Point in the last two matches against the best return player of all time.

Novak Djokovic will have plenty of motivation from the odds favouring his opponent, but Jannik Sinner is not Alexander Zverev.

He is not someone who is likely going to capitulate mentally if a couple of games have not gone his way and Jannik Sinner has shown he can overwhelm opponents with the tennis he can produce. As long as he serves near to where he has been throughout this tournament, the Italian will likely keep Novak Djokovic under the pump and that may eventually lead to a more comfortable victory than most would expect.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games
Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games

Thursday, 7 July 2022

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2022 (July 8th)

One upset and one favourite earned their path into the Ladies Singles Final at Wimbledon to be played on Saturday and now the Men get to work out who will be rounding out the tournament for another year on Sunday.

Another solid day for the Tennis Picks has seen a big bounce back from the poor Day 9 showing, and hopefully I have at least three more winners to come. 

At the time of writing the news about Rafael Nadal's withdrawal had not been confirmed so you can ignore the second selection.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Cameron Norrie: There were a couple of moments in the Quarter Final when it felt like Novak Djokovic was not going to find the intensity he needed to avoid losing his first match at Wimbledon since 2018. Dropping the first two sets is never an ideal position to be in, but Novak Djokovic largely dominated Jannik Sinner from that stage and he was never in a position where he was behind by a break on the scoreboard in the final three sets.

Some potential fatigue could have been a factor in this Semi Final if his opponent had eased through the last Round, but Cameron Norrie had a much more arduous and stressful passage into the last four. The British Number 1 has become one of a handful of male players to reach the last four at Wimbledon and Cameron Norrie has to pick himself up from a rollercoaster back and forth Quarter Final win of his own.

While Novak Djokovic's situation was clear after falling into a 0-2 hole, Cameron Norrie had rallied to win the second set before finding himself 2-1 behind against David Goffin. And unlike the top Seed in the draw, Cameron Norrie had to battle very hard to win the final set which needed almost the full thirteen games and a Super Tie-Breaker to decide the winner.

Cameron Norrie has played some solid tennis in the tournament, but there have been too many tight matches against players that are significantly below the level that Novak Djokovic can bring to the court. The lefty serve should give him an advantage, but Norrie has not been completely convincing behind serve with both Jaume Munar and David Goffin breaking the serve five times.

The return numbers have also declined in each of the last three Rounds and that could be an issue against Novak Djokovic who is likely going to exert plenty of pressure with his own return.

Their sole previous match at the ATP Finals will be a reminder for Cameron Norrie as to how important it is for him to serve well- he was blitzed by Novak Djokovic that day and managed to win just three games.

I am not expecting a complete blow out in this one with the Centre Court crowd firmly behind the home player, but I do think Novak Djokovic is the far superior player on grass at this stage of their careers. Both are coming in off tough Quarter Final wins, but Novak Djokovic has been much more deadly on the return of serve and I do think that will make the difference in this match as he slowly quietens the crowd and moves clear of Cameron Norrie in what I am expecting to be a straight sets win.


Nick Kyrgios - 1.5 sets v Rafael Nadal: One of the most remarkable moments of the tennis season was seen on Wednesday as Rafael Nadal overcame an early injury, had to change up his service action to avoid being in pain and then recovered from 2-1 down against Taylor Fritz to win the match in five sets.

There was no doubt that this family, namely father and sister, were making gestures as early as the second set for Rafael Nadal to withdraw from his Quarter Final, but this is a 22 time Grand Slam Champion and he showed all of that to somehow win that match. Taylor Fritz will have regrets, while Rafael Nadal is reported to have a tear in the abdomen region, although feels he can play through the pain and take part in the Semi Final.

It would have been a tough match up for Rafael Nadal even at full health against the enigmatic Australian Nick Kyrgios who has put together some very strong tennis to reach his first ever Grand Slam Semi Final.

For many, the biggest obstacle in front of Nick Kyrgios is Nick Kyrgios- there is no doubt that some of his on court antics wind up the opponent, but he is just as likely to wind himself up and make some poor decisions which prove to be costly.

However, with a serve like he has, Nick Kyrgios has to feel he can get on the front foot and really test Rafael Nadal's movement on this surface. He also has previous of beating Nadal at Wimbledon with the two sharing a win apiece in SW19 and Nick Kyrgios does tend to raise his game when going up against some of the stronger players on the Tour.

Nick Kyrgios has three wins over Rafael Nadal and matches between these two have tended to be close and competitive thanks to the huge serve possessed by the former. With Rafael Nadal perhaps struggling with injury, Nick Kyrgios may feel he has more scope to put together some strong returns and I do think he is going to make his maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.

I do have to say that Nick Kyrgios has felt like he has been winning matches on the tight margins because he does have a weaker than average return game, while he did not serve as well as he would have liked in the last Round. However, I do think he will be extra motivated in facing a player he has had issues with in the past and Nick Kyrgios has held 93% of his service games against Rafael Nadal in the two grass court matches between them.

With an injury weakening the defending Australian and French Open Champion, Nick Kyrgios can take advantage and win this one in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon 2022: 53-45, + 8.12 Units (196 Units Staked, + 4.14% Yield)

Thursday, 18 February 2021

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2021 (February 19th)

The end of the latest run in a Grand Slam for Serena Williams looked a little more final than we have seen in previous years and you do have to wonder if she is considering calling time on her career. I am not entirely surprised even if Williams looked as strong as ever in Melbourne this past two weeks, but time doesn't stop for any player and there are some major threats in the Women's game these days and I am not sure Serena will ever be able to win the Singles Grand Slam title she needs to match Margaret Court.

Wimbledon and the US Open offers big opportunities, but time is running out and I think there will be other names that start as favourites at both of those Grand Slams later this year.

It has been a spectacular career if this is indeed the final year on the Tour for Serena Williams, and she looks to have passed the torch to someone who idolised her growing up. Naomi Osaka can become the dominant force on the WTA Tour for years to come if she so wishes, although there are some quality players at the top of that Tour who will believe they can get the better of a player that has to show improvement on the clay and grass courts.

It makes Women's Tennis appealing to fans with some uncertainty as to how a tournament will develop, but it is also important to have a star like Naomi Osaka beginning to build her own legacy in the sport and be able to take over from the 'legends' when they are ready to be moved aside.


It has been a long-term issue in the Men's game with the Big Three dominating over the years, but finally we may be seeing other players ready to challenge the elite. If either Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas are able to win the title, they will become the youngest first time Grand Slam Winner in a little under twelve years and could see that player going on to superstar status.

Novak Djokovic will be waiting for the winner though and beating him here is as big a challenge as knocking off Roger Federer at Wimbledon and Rafael Nadal at the French Open. With an extra day of recovery under his belt and looking like he is firmly over whatever injury plagued him in the Third Round, Novak Djokovic is going to be a big favourite on Sunday and it will be up to the winner of the second Semi Final to have to dig deep and try and knock off one of the top names in the sport on their favourite Grand Slam surface.


Daniil Medvedev-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 38.5 games: For a long time fans of the ATP have been waiting for the 'Next Gen' of stars to make their impact at the Grand Slam level and we have seen some of those players getting closer and closer to doing so. One of the 'Big Three' is already waiting in the Final of the 2021 Australian Open, but both Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are much improved young players and they meet in a big Semi Final with every confidence that the winning player will have the belief to go on and win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Daniil Medvedev has celebrated his 25th birthday during the Australian Open, while Stefanos Tsitsipas is 22 years old- if either goes on to win the title here this week, they would be the youngest first time Men's Grand Slam Champion since Juan Martin Del Potro won the 2009 US Open as a 20 year old.

That underlines some of the development of sports science which means Tennis players can extend their careers longer than they would, but also the weight of expectation that fans have had on younger players as they look for them to announce themselves at the highest level.

Both of these players are operating at elite level and the match being played under the lights will help with the physical issues that both will likely have been dealing with. Daniil Medvedev was cramping right after his Quarter Final win over compatriot Andrey Rublev with both players suffering in the heat, while Stefanos Tsitsipas was on the court for over four hours two days ago as he became the second player to recover from two sets down to beat Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam tournament.

Earlier in the tournament Stefanos Tsitsipas benefited from a walkover too so he has played one fewer match than his rival, but he has twice needed over four hours to win matches. There is also the emotional and physical energy needed to come from two sets down to win a match at any time which has to be a factor in this one and I think it is going to be a big test for Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The layers seem to believe the same with Daniil Medvedev going in as the favourite, but the raw numbers from the tournament suggests it will be a close match. Unsurprisingly the Russian has the superior return numbers, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown off stronger returning than we have come to expect of him in the early stages of his career and the Greek top tenner also has been serving at a higher level than his opponent.

Despite playing one match fewer, Stefanos Tsitsipas has actually spent more time on court than his opponent and the head to head is heavily in favour of Daniil Medvedev. The latter has won five of their previous six matches and leads on the hard courts 4-1, while Medvedev will extract some confidence from the fact he has never been beaten outdoors by Stefanos Tsitsipas.

However, there has been a clear sign that Medvedev has had more issues facing the Tsitsipas serve in the last few meetings- in each of the last three hard court matches, Daniil Medvedev has won 33%, 31% and then 30% of return points played and the break points created have slipped from five to three to zero in those matches too.

It has to be encouragement for the improving Greek star, although he has had a tough time dealing with the Daniil Medvedev serve too and I think the performances in the Australian Open suggest this is going to be a tight match. I would be surprised if either player is able to run through in straight sets, although my edge goes with Daniil Medvedev because of the emotional and physical effort Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to put into his Quarter Final win over Rafael Nadal.

The serving is going to be key for both players on the faster courts in Melbourne this year and I think the two players can combine for enough games to cover this total line set as long as we see at least four sets. Tie-breakers won't be a surprise and they played out a tight match on a fast court in Shanghai eighteen months ago which was eventually won 7-6, 7-5 by Daniil Medvedev.

The only concern for the selection is that Daniil Medvedev is able to win the first two sets- I think that could see a flat Stefanos Tsitsipas beaten, but anything else should make this a very competitive match with both players serving at a really strong level. It could be the kind of match that Novak Djokovic will enjoy as much as the fans with the winner being drained for the Final in two days time, but it should be a memorable Semi Final and I will look for the two players to produce some excellent tennis in a tight match.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 46-42, - 3.22 Units (176 Units Staked, - 1.83% Yield)