Australian Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2026- Men's Final (Sunday 1st February)

After two quite unbelievable Semi Final matches, the men's Final on the last Sunday in Melbourne could really signify the passing of the torch between generations.

Novak Djokovic will want to just underline his status as the best player of all time, but Carlos Alcaraz has plenty on the line himself and the youngest player to win the career Grand Slam would certainly place his name in the history books already.

Some may feel it could end up being an important Grand Slam title at the end of the respective careers with Alcaraz looking more than capable of getting close to the current mark set by Novak Djokovic.

It should be a fitting occasion to conclude the first Grand Slam of the 2026 season and one that every Tennis fan should be looking forward to.

The women's Final on Saturday did provide the drama that had largely been missing from that tournament as Elena Rybakina came through in three sets.

It looked like the match was going to get away from the Kazakhstan player in the final set, but a five game winning run turned things in Rybakina's favour and she has moved back into the top three of the World Rankings.

A healthy Elena Rybakina could be a threat at two of the next three Grand Slams, although still has something to prove on the clay courts.

Wimbledon has to be a big target and she can certainly close towards the top of the World Rankings if she can maintain the form of the last six months.

Some words about Aryna Sabalenka- the World Number 1 is a huge personality and remains one of the most consistent players who is always there or thereabouts at the biggest tournaments.

Reaching four of the last five Grand Slam Finals is nothing to be sneered at, even if Sabalenka has come up short in three of those.

You have to expect Aryna Sabalenka to be challenging for the biggest titles throughout 2026 and she has shown plenty of mental resilience to bounce back from plenty of other setbacks to be concerned about how she will respond to this Australian Open Final defeat.

Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: Depending on your personal belief system, you may describe events on Friday as being 'destiny', 'fate' or perhaps even think some sort of 'divine intervention'.

That is certainly the case for the second Semi Final which was won by Novak Djokovic and the desire to win a twenty-fifth Grand Slam title is now just one match away.

It has been a miraculous few days for the 38 year old and that cannot be denied, no matter what else you believe.

A walkover in the Fourth Round is not so unique- in a long Grand Slam tournament, things like that happen, but the last couple of matches have been very unique.

Trailing 2-0 in the Quarter Final, Novak Djokovic admitted that his time in Melbourne looked to be coming to an end for another year.

Instead, Djokovic was given a reprieve as his fortune was Lorenzo Musetti's misfortune with an injury forcing the Italian to withdraw early in the third set when looking more than on course to beat the ten time Australian Open Champion.

Novak Djokovic admitted the better player had lost on the day, and there may be a similar feeling after he somehow managed to rally and beat the World Number 2 in a five set epic on Friday. The numbers back up that this may have been the most unexpected Semi Final win in a Grand Slam event going back to 1991 when some of the leading number-crunchers have been keeping vigorous records.

The former World Number 1 had 8 Break Points compared with the 18 that Jannik Sinner created, but Djokovic won the majority of the biggest points and recovered from 15/40 positions twice and 0/40 in the final set. He took his one and only Break Point created and the legendary Serb won a match in which his opponent won 12 more points over the course of the epic last four contest.

Suffice to say it is very difficult to overcome those kinds of numbers over and over again, while Novak Djokovic just spent over four hours on the court at 38 years old. Recovery is going to be the big challenge, but it certainly helps that his opponent in this Final has just played the longest Semi Final in Australian Open history.

Carlos Alcaraz is looking to become the youngest player to complete the career Grand Slam, but he had to dig seriously deep to beat Alexander Zverev having cramped up towards the end of the third set. At that stage the World Number 1 looked to be cruising through, but the body began to let him down and that allowed Alexander Zverev to win the next two sets in Tie-Breakers and then take a break lead in the decider.

All credit has to be given to the Spaniard for turning that set around and fighting his way through to the Final, although he has since indicated that he was not receiving a Medical Time Out for cramping issues, but because he felt something else in his muscle. That MTO infuriated Alexander Zverev, because you are not allowed to have a trainer come and work on cramps unless between changeovers and even then it can only be used three times.

Ultimately Zverev has tried to move past any controversy and it is Carlos Alcaraz who will be playing in the Australian Open Final for the first time.

Like his older opponent, Carlos Alcaraz will have to show tremendous recovery after spending almost five and a half hours on the court on Friday. Credit has to be given to the top Seed for the way he managed his serve in that win over Alexander Zverev and it is going to need to be a key shot for him to earn the victory over Novak Djokovic.

Carlos Alcaraz is plenty experienced, even at this young age, but this is easily his best run at the Australian Open and that means he is breaking new ground.

Of course that is far from the case for Novak Djokovic who has won this title ten times in his career and he has NEVER been beaten in the Australian Open Final. This has to give the Serb so much confidence, while he will note that he upset Carlos Alcaraz on this court twelve months ago in a four set win.

Prior to the US Open Semi Final in September, Novak Djokovic had not been beaten on a hard court by Carlos Alcaraz and that is another factor that has to give the veteran belief that this is his moment to win a twenty-fifth Grand Slam title and move clear of all.

The four hard court matches played between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have narrowly favoured the latter, but the win in New York City has to give the Spaniard so much confidence.

He only faced a single Break Point that day and Alcaraz had his chances in the Quarter Final defeat to Novak Djokovic twelve months ago.

Carlos Alcaraz will believe that his serve has improved markedly since that loss to Novak Djokovic in Melbourne when he was only winning 58% of points played behind the serve. That number improved to 70% in New York City and the returning numbers were similar in both matches, which suggests Carlos Alcaraz deserves the edge that has been given to him.

Over the last twelve months, Carlos Alcaraz has been the superior hard court player, while he has definitely been the more impressive within this tournament.

Novak Djokovic has shown he can play clutch tennis at the biggest moments, while the aggressive style surprised Jannik Sinner and may also give Alcaraz something to think about.

Factoring in the ability to recover from epic five setters on Friday is much more difficult- you would think Carlos Alcaraz being younger and playing earlier on the day will give him the edge, but dismissing the motivation that is fuelling Novak Djokovic and having that see him leave everything on the court would be dangerous.

The hard court performances against Carlos Alcaraz and the confidence of playing in these conditions and on this court makes Novak Djokovic a threat too.

Perhaps he is playing with some destiny and that Sunday is all about Novak Djokovic moving past Margaret Court's twenty-four Grand Slams just across from a tennis court names after the Australian.

Winning the title and leaving the sport would just be a fitting end to what has been a wonderful career, but the numbers suggest Carlos Alcaraz will have a little too much for Novak Djokovic. His variety is going to be important, as it was in the US Open Semi Final win, and a cold heart can only pick the World Number 1 to complete his career Grand Slam by breaking the heart of one of the absolute greatest to ever pick up a racquet.

It would really not offend if this Pick is wrong and Novak Djokovic can turn back the clock one more time, but he is going to have to come through some really sticky moments again and this time he may just come up short.

That win in New York City should make Carlos Alcaraz know what he needs to do in this Australian Open Final and he may just have too much over three or four sets.

MY PICK: Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 37-23, + 15.08 Units (124 Units Staked, + 12.16% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Women's Final 2026 (Saturday 31st January)

Don't misunderstand, I had been just as disappointed as most with the lack of drama at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

But then it was the turn of the men in the Semi Finals.

And boy, did Friday provide us everything that us fans were demanding and more.

Carlos Alcaraz came through in the longest Australian Open Semi Final on record with the match going three minutes shy of five and a half hours.

You'd have to worry about his fitness ahead of the Final, but the second Semi Final went well over four hours before Novak Djokovic found his way into yet another Grand Slam Final.

I will have more thoughts on that in the Day 15 thread as the Australian Open comes to a conclusion, but first we have what could be a 'blink and you miss it' Women's Final.

Two big hitters are not going to hang around in service games and it should be a decent contest between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina as two players who will occupy the top three places in the World Rankings on Monday morning meet in the Melbourne showpiece on Saturday evening.

Elena Rybakina v Aryna Sabalenka: On the pure numbers, you have to consider Aryna Sabalenka not only the World Number 1, but the top player on the hard courts on the WTA Tour.

This is the fourth year in a row that she will be competing in the Australian Open Final and Aryna Sabalenka has also reached the US Open in each of the last three seasons. Four Grand Slams have been won on the surface- twice in a row at both of Melbourne and New York City- but Aryna Sabalenka was denied a third straight success here twelve months ago when upset by Madison Keys.

You would also consider Elena Rybakina's game to work very well on the hard courts and so it is a surprise that she is playing in her first Grand Slam Final on the surface since the 2023 Australian Open.

In fact, you can go even further and state that it is a surprise that she has not reached another Grand Slam Final since that defeat in Melbourne, but Elena Rybakina has been in good form for several months now and there will be plenty of confidence and experience that she can call upon for this Final.

Both players have been in exceptional form at the Australian Open- neither has dropped a set and both Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have been particularly effective at protecting the second serve. It is Rybakina who has a narrow advantage on the first serve percentage of points won, but the World Number 1 has been the slightly superior return player.

However, that return game is going to be tested by this Elena Rybakina serve, even in the Night Session when the cooler conditions can make the ball all the heavier to try and hit through the court. That has not prevented the World Number 5 from still having a big impact with her serve and that could be a key to the outcome of this match.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will know that they are going to win plenty of points when the first serve lands and both will want to get on the front foot. That could also mean playing with more aggression on the return of serve whenever a second serve is seen and this has been the one match up that has proven to be pretty challenging for the top Seed.

In 2023, Aryna Sabalenka came from a set behind to beat Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open Final and that meant the Belarusian had won the opening four matches between the players on the Tour and all in three set matches.

She most definitely had the mental edge at that stage, but two months later Elena Rybakina beat Sabalenka for the first time in the Indian Wells Final.

That result has sparked a positive run for the lower Ranked player and the last ten between these two players have ended in six Elena Rybakina wins.

It also includes a run of six wins in the last eight hard court matches, including Elena Rybakina winning two of three last year- both of those wins were on some of the faster hard courts at Cincinnati and then indoors in Riyadh, while Aryna Sabalenka beat this opponent in Wuhan in between those defeats.

Of course the win in the Australian Open Final is one that will give Aryna Sabalenka a lot of confidence, but in the eight matches on the hard courts since then, the World Number 1 has struggled to match the serving qualities of Elena Rybakina. The returning percentage of points won is 10% lower against Rybakina compared with Aryna Sabalenka's average and that is a big difference that keeps the top Seed under real pressure.

Her first serve has not been as punishing in those matches against Elena Rybakina either and the power that the latter can generate means she can stick with Aryna Sabalenka and give as good as she gets.

You have to respect the qualities of Sabalenka in winning multiple Grand Slam Finals and the consistency she has had at all Majors to reach the business end of tournaments over and over again.

Elena Rybakina has struggled for the momentum within Grand Slam tournaments that is needed to go as deep as she would have expected, but that has not been the case in Melbourne and she looks like she can upset the odds.

Twelve months ago, Aryna Sabalenka opened the season by winning the title in Brisbane and then reached the Final in Melbourne.

She has done the same in 2026, but Madison Keys managed to find a way to get the better of Aryna Sabalenka in 2025 and the feeling is that Elena Rybakina's game matches up well enough to help the 26 year old win a second Grand Slam title.

MY PICK: Elena Rybakina @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 36-23, + 12.08 Units (122 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2026 (Friday 30th January)

We may have gotten down to the Australian Open Semi Final with the top four men's Seeds all still in action, but most fans will believe the World Number 1 and 2 are going to have too much for experienced opponents.

The last three Grand Slam Finals have been a match up between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner and they are clear favourites to meet in the Sunday showpiece.

However, out of the two opponents, it does feel like Alexander Zverev can offer some resistance against Carlos Alcaraz as long as he can put together a decent serving day.

Novak Djokovic fans may believe destiny is driving his run to the Semi Final having had some fortune in Melbourne, but his level has dipped significantly from his peak days dominating the Tour. It was really good to hear Djokovic giving a journalist some pushback having received a pretty disrespectful line of questioning, but the 38 year old has to be significantly better than Wednesday if he is going to find a way to upset Jannik Sinner in the other Semi Final.

Carlos Alcaraz-Alexander Zverev over 35.5 games: You could easily come to the conclusion that Carlos Alcaraz is a multiple time Champion at Melbourne Park after watching him ease past Alex De Minaur in the Quarter Final.

Instead, the World Number 1 was winning a Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and in doing so was also ending the hopes of the home fans in seeing a men's winner at the event for the first time in fifty years.

Carlos Alcaraz is now two wins away from becoming the youngest men's player to complete the career Grand Slam, but he will have a lot of respect for the opponent in front of him.

Despite both being in the top three of the World Rankings, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev only met once in 2025 and that ended in a routine win for the Spaniard on the fast courts of Cincinnati back in August. That levelled up the career head to head between the players, but also means Alcaraz has won four of the seven matches since joining the elite on the Tour with a couple of the early losses at a time when the Spaniard was making his way up the World Rankings.

The three losses in that time underline the danger that Alexander Zverev does pose with a big serve backed up by enough on the ground to believe he can cause the upset.

It is the serve that has been a crucial weapon for Alexander Zverev in this tournament and the World Number 3 has long been comfortable playing in Melbourne. Last year he came up short in the Final, but Zverev continues to insist he is at his best health-wise right now and the German holds a win over Carlos Alcaraz on this court in the Quarter Final played two years ago.

Taking Alexander Zverev at face value with his assessment on his own health makes it understandable that the hard court numbers dipped as much as they did in 2025 and he will be well aware that he needs to serve very well to win this match.

This was the main reason he was able to hold off Learner Tien in the Quarter Final, while it was a big reason why Alexander Zverev was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz here a couple of years ago.

Of course the challenge for every player chasing the top two in the World Rankings is whether they can play at a high level for long enough to remain competitive.

Carlos Alcaraz looks to be getting stronger as this tournament progresses and he has not dropped a set in the last two Rounds against Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur. He has admitted working on the serve and that has seen him dominate behind that shot, while Alcaraz has won two of the last three hard court matches against this opponent.

The layers are expecting a straight-forward win for Carlos Alcaraz with the favoured scoreline being 3-0 in sets, while he has been asked to cover the same line that was in place for his Quarter Final match.

However, that does all feel a little disrespectful to Alexander Zverev who can make use of the conditions to get the maximum out of his serve.

He will have to begin this match with some confidence just to make sure he does not allow a frontrunner like Carlos Alcaraz to move through the gears.

As long as Alexander Zverev can continue to serve at the clip he has been in Melbourne, he has every chance of making this a competitive Semi Final and the two players may put enough games on the board to surpass this total.

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Novak Djokovic: The top four Seeds in the men's tournament have made it through to the Semi Final, but the two players competing in this one will feel they have had a bit of fortune on their side to make it through to the final four of the opening Grand Slam event of the season.

In the Third Round, Jannik Sinner looked to be cramping up and not being able to physically deal with the challenging conditions as he trailed by a break in the third set. Fortunately the heat rule was applied by the tournament organisers right at that point, which meant playing under a roof with controlled conditions and, most importantly, allowing the World Number 2 to just take in the liquid needed to get back somewhere close to full health.

He was fortunate at Wimbledon last year as well and Sinner took full advantage by winning his first title at that Grand Slam and the Italian has breezed past his last two opponents to take his place in the Semi Final here again.

So the defending Champion will be thankful, but there is so much more for Novak Djokovic to be thankful about as he looks to win a record twenty-fifth Grand Slam title.

Over the last eighteen months, Novak Djokovic has come to terms with the fact that beating both Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz is going to be incredibly tough for him at this stage of his career- he has admitted he needs to get through the early Rounds of a Grand Slam as easily as possible to have enough in reserve to beat either of the top two players in the world, never mind knowing that he likely would have to beat both.

After coming through three opening wins easily, Novak Djokovic benefited from a walkover in the Fourth Round, which most have seen as a positive for him.

Even more luck was needed in the Quarter Final as Novak Djokovic admitted himself in the post-match interviews.

He was down 2-0 in sets against Lorenzo Musetti in that Quarter Final and looking unable to turn the tide with the Italian dominating, but an injury early in the third set meant the match came to an abrupt stop just four games into that set. Novak Djokovic was gracious enough to admit he felt he was 'going home', but he has made it through and some will think he is 'destined' to win at an event he has previously won ten times.

Novak Djokovic cannot keep hoping for some 'divine intervention', but he remains active at the Australian Open and that makes him a danger.

However, it is hard to imagine the last time Novak Djokovic would have been 8-1 to win a tennis match and that just underlines the gap that has developed between the long time dominant Champion and the two leading the ATP these days.

Last year, Novak Djokovic did upset Carlos Alcaraz here in Melbourne so his chances cannot be dismissed, but he has lost five matches in a row against Jannik Sinner, including at both the French Open and Wimbledon last year. Not only did Djokovic lose those matches, but he did not win a set, while even playing at his favourite Grand Slam might not make much of a difference when noting that he was crushed in four sets by Jannik Sinner here just two years ago.

The Novak Djokovic serve is declining from the level he once produced and he is no longer the best return player on the Tour, although his place in history is firmly secure for now.

These are things that Jannik Sinner just does better than Novak Djokovic in January 2026 and the World Number 2 has not dropped his serve in the last couple of Rounds. The feeling is that he is going to keep Djokovic under some pressure, while also being able to get his teeth into the return games more effectively than the Old King, and Jannik Sinner may end up producing a routine win like the one he did against the Serb in the Wimbledon Semi Final last July.

He broke the Novak Djokovic serve five times in that match and the way Lorenzo Musetti was able to break down that part of the Djokovic game will certainly offer Jannik Sinner plenty of encouragement.

It feels really wrong to be asking Jannik Sinner to cover this spread line against an opponent who has won the Australian Open ten times, but it does feel that time has gotten the better of Novak Djokovic and one of the top two players in the world can underline the difference at this stage of their careers.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz-Alexander Zverev Over 35.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 35-22, + 12.48 Units (118 Units Staked, + 10.92% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2026 (Thursday 29th January)

The opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season has now reached the last four days and that means the spotlight will shine on the Singles tournaments on different days.

On Thursday and Saturday it will be the leading ladies who take centre stage with the two Semi Finals played on the Night Session before the Saturday showpiece Final.

On Friday and Sunday it will be the turn of the men and it may take a brave person to back against seeing the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Grand Slam Final for the fourth Major in a row. Players like Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic will be hoping experience can give them an edge, but it is a big ask and the two leading male player on the Tour continue to dominate.

Before all of that we get into the women's Semi Final matches and both offer some intrigue.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina know what it takes to get over the line, but Jessica Pegula is a former US Open Finalist and Elina Svitolina will feel that she has already overachieved since returning to the Tour. Of course the latter is being fuelled further by off court events taking place back in her homeland and that is going to be the backdrop to her Semi Final with the World Number 1, while also meaning the latter will be playing with plenty of motivation of her own knowing how some of her peers feel about her presence on the Tour.

The second Semi Final should be another fun match between Pegula and Rybakina and my Picks from both last four matches can be read below.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: You cannot ignore the political backdrop to this Australian Open Semi Final when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Elina Svitolina. It has been a tournament filled with questions being asked of the American players about political upheaval taking place back in the United States, while a different Ukrainian player made headlines early at the Australian Open when criticising some of the top Russian and Belarusian athletes on the Tour.

There is not going to be a handshake before or after this match, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will be very respectful of what the other brings on the court. Added motivation cannot be ignored on both sides of the net and it is going to be very important for the two competitors to keep a lid on the emotions if they are going to find a way to compete in the Final of the opening Grand Slam of the season.

While impossible to ignore issues off of the court, the focus here has to be on how the two have matched up with each other.

Both have to be credited for maintaining unbeaten runs through the opening month of the season which has led to each winning a title, while the performances within the Australian Open have also been impressive.

Aryna Sabalenka has beaten a couple of young, developing stars of the WTA Tour in the last two Rounds, but Elina Svitolina will be the highest Ranked player she will have faced in Melbourne this year. Previously that match would have been against World Number 16 Victoria Mboko, but inexperience would still have been. factor in that Fourth Round match and now Sabalenka is facing someone returning to the top 10 of the World Rankings and who has plenty of Grand Slam experience.

Not only that, but Elina Svitolina is much more battle-hardened having beaten three players Ranked inside the top 22, while also having back to back top 10 wins. Those last two victories over Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff came in matches when Elina Svitolina did not drop a set and she produced some high quality tennis to make sure neither Andreeva nor Gauff could get a foothold into those matches.

There is still a mental obstacle to overcome as Elina Svitolina has not reached a Grand Slam Final before, but the run to the Semi Final here means her record in Majors is as successful post-motherhood as it was before she took her leave of absence from the Tour.

This is the first Grand Slam Semi Final since Elina Svitolina's surprising run at Wimbledon 2023, while the style of play has changed with the 31 year old looking to be more aggressive in her tennis. This has been evident here in Melbourne with Svitolina using the serve very well, especially when it comes to protecting the second serve, and Svitolina has really had a lot of success on the return.

She may have played some high Ranked opponents, but that has not stopped Svitolina from winning 52% of return points played, while she has broken at least four times in every match at Melbourne Park.

Of course it has to be noted that this time Elina Svitolina will be facing one of the best servers on the WTA Tour in Aryna Sabalenka and the World Number 1 has been particularly effective at winning a few more points behind the second serve. She may also feel there is room for improvement on the points won behind the first serve, but Aryna Sabalenka looks to be peaking at the right time.

Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka's control of the serve has allowed her to play with aggression on the return and she has also been very effective at winning those points to keep the pressure on the opponent.

It does feel like this Semi Final will come down to which of the two players is most effective at looking after the second serve.

In recent meetings between the players, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has just been able to play the bigger points more effectively and her power has been telling on the return.

The majority of the previous matches have been on the clay courts, which is a surface on which Elina Svitolina may feel she can cause more problems for the World Number 1.

In two previous hard court matches, Aryna Sabalenka's first serve has made the difference, including in the first of those when the younger player was much lower in the World Rankings. The hard court match in Cincinnati in August 2024 was dominated by Sabalenka and the feeling is that she has the serving prowess to avoid the kind of capitulation suffered by Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final.

The blueprint to attack the Elina Svitolina serve has been shown in the Round earlier by Mirra Andreeva and you just have to believe that Aryna Sabalenka's comfort on the Melbourne hard courts eventually see her pull away for a solid win and a place in the Australian Open Final for a fourth year in a row.

Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve and 5+ Aces v Jessica Pegula: Both Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina came through Quarter Finals in impressive fashion and that makes for a good looking Semi Final between players who have been amongst the best on the Tour for some time.

Both have played Grand Slam Finals, but it is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line when winning the title at Wimbledon.

Elena Rybakina also reached the Final right here in Melbourne six months after winning the title at SW19, but she came up short against Aryna Sabalenka in 2023. Since that defeat, her best Grand Slam runs have been at Wimbledon where she has reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final and, somewhat more surprisingly, at the French Open where Elena Rybakina has played in another Quarter Final.

However, despite the very strong hard court numbers over the last couple of seasons, Elena Rybakina has struggled to make the second week at either of the two Slams played on that surface until this strong opening to the 2026 season.

Jessica Pegula had also reached a ceiling in her Grand Slam performances, but broke through to reach the Final at the US Open in 2024 and was a Semi Finalist in New York City back in September. Before 2024, Pegula had played in and been beaten in five Grand Slam Quarter Final matches, which includes in three straight years at the Australian Open.

There had also been signs that this was a player who was becoming a declining force, but the World Number 6 has really impressed in her run to the Semi Final in Australia over the last few days. She has beaten the defending Champion and Jessica Pegula came through a tight second set to beat Amanda Anisimova, who had reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, while also maintaining a run of having yet to drop a set in the tournament.

Her opponent has also come through in straight sets throughout the tournament and overcame a slow start to motor past Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final, which will have given Elena Rybakina a real boost in confidence.

The serve is proving to be a monster weapon for Rybakina and she has really gotten in to a nice rhythm behind that shot in the last two Rounds as the competition has increased.

It is going to need to be working as well to keep a lid on Jessica Pegula, but Elena Rybakina has to be confident having beaten the American twice on the hard courts in 2025. Both of those wins saw Elena Rybakina have a real edge on the serve and that is likely going to be a key factor in the outcome of this Semi Final, although Jessica Pegula's mental strength can not be dismissed.

The American has been the stronger return player in the tournament, but that has to be expected.

It is the Elena Rybakina second serve that can become a key in making sure that the Kazakhstan representative is not being pushed back early in rallies and she will certainly feel she has the easy power to come through this match.

You have to expect Elena Rybakina's serve to rack up the Ace count in this match- she has been flowing nicely in the last two Rounds and managed to put up 24 Aces in the two wins over Jessica Pegula last year with at least 9 in both wins.

Elena Rybakina also broke at least four times in both matches and she has the capabilities of hitting those marks again.

As mentioned, Rybakina has been finding some stellar rhythm on the serve and Madison Keys managed 4 Aces in her defeat to Jessica Pegula, while the World Number 5 has broken at least four times in each of the last four wins in the tournament.

You have to respect Jessica Pegula's capabilities of digging in and finding a way to turn points and games, which makes the spread dangerous, but putting the Ace count and Breaks of Serve together gives us an odds against quote for Elena Rybakina, who looks the stronger player overall.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve & 5+ Aces @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 33-22, + 8.48 Units (114 Units Staked, + 7.44% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 28th January)

There really isn't much to complain about when you make three selections from the opening four Quarter Final matches played at the Australian Open and all return as winners.

Making it most pleasing is the ease in which the three selections came in- Alexander Zverev did need to win a fourth set Tie-Breaker, but should have won the second set Breaker and things would have been even more comfortable for him.

He has set up another Grand Slam meeting with Carlos Alcaraz, while Elina Svitolina's comprehensive win over Coco Gauff means the Ukrainian is back in the top 10 of the World Rankings and looking like she is playing at a level to finally win a Grand Slam title.

Of course, she only has the World Number 1, the top Seed and the three consecutive time Australian Open Finalist to beat to reach the showpiece event on Saturday evening.

This has not been a tournament of too many surprises, but that does mean there are four more good looking Quarter Final matches heading out on the Rod Laver Arena on Wednesday as we hit Day 11 of the Australian Open.

The two women's Quarter Finals look exceptionally strong, while wins for Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner would mean the men's event is going to be concluding with the top four players on the Tour facing off, although neither should assume that Lorenzo Musetti and Ben Shelton are going to be willing to roll over easily.

On Day 11, three more selections are made from the matches scheduled to be heading out onto the courts as the first Grand Slam of 2026 gets closer and closer to crowning Champions.

Iga Swiatek v Elena Rybakina: When the draw was made a little under two weeks ago, most fans would have been hoping that Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina were going to be on a collision course.

For moment Iga Swiatek fans may have been wondering if the former World Number 1 was going to be able to come through an awkward Third Round match that headed into a deciding set, but these two players have been untroubled for the majority of the tournament.

The numbers have been most impressive on the side of Elena Rybakina.

Not only has she won all four matches in straight sets, but Elena Rybakina has been serving at a really high level and that will always make her dangerous on the faster surfaces on the Tour. The first serve is about as good as any on the WTA Tour and Rybakina will know that she needs to land plenty of those if she is going to put Iga Swiatek under pressure.

However, it is the way Elena Rybakina has protected her second serve in the tournament which has really caught the eye, although there is no doubt that her opponent is going to offer a real test of that shot.

Before the tournament began, there were some question marks about Iga Swiatek and whether she had really prepared as well as hoped in the off-season.

Those concerns look to have been put to bed with her level in the event, although Swiatek has benefited from a kind draw with the toughest match being the Third Round contest against Anna Kalinskaya and that needed a deciding set.

The World Number 2 has been returning really well with over half of the return points being won by Swiatek, and that always puts an opponent under pressure. It is very unlikely that she will be able to do that against this Rybakina serve, but Iga Swiatek has tended to be able to get into the return games and eventually prove to have too much for the former Wimbledon Champion.

Elena Rybakina was able to break the mental hold that Swiatek may have had over her when beating this opponent at the WTA Finals a couple of months ago, but there is a feeling that the higher Ranked player was not quite at her best in Riyadh.

Another competitive match has to be expected, but Iga Swiatek may have the edge on the return of serve and that could see her through to the Semi Final.

Amanda Anisimova - 1.5 games v Jessica Pegula: These two compatriots last met in the Final of the Canadian Masters in August 2024 and it was Jessica Pegula who got the better of Amanda Anisimova in three sets to win the title.

Fast forward to January 2026 and so much has changed for the latter, who is going into this Quarter Final as the favourite.

When Amanda Anisimova last faced Jessica Pegula, she was the World Number 132 and still making her way back onto the Tour after taking a break from the sport.

Now it is Anisimova who will go into this Quarter Final as the higher Ranked of the two players and she has also reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, which has given the World Number 4 a huge amount of confidence. The performances here in Melbourne have been from a player who has total belief in what she needs to do on the court and there is a consistency from Amanda Anisimova that will make her very dangerous.

Of course she has to respect Jessica Pegula who has been a consistent feature of the top 10 in the World Rankings and who has just beaten the defending Champion in the Fourth Round.

Prior to the win over Madison Keys, Jessica Pegula had been crushing all opponents behind some spectacular performances, but that is partly down to the draw opening up for her. The win over Keys was solid enough, although it was a match that could have seen the momentum swing at a couple of key moments and Pegula may feel that she has to find another level when facing someone like Amanda Anisimova.

She has never been beaten on the Tour by Anisimova, which has to be noted, but Jessica Pegula will also be aware that this may be the best version of her compatriot to date.

Over the last twelve months there has been contrasting results when these two have faced top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts- Amanda Anisimova has won seven out of ten in that spot, while Jessica Pegula has lost seven out of eleven.

Throughout her career, Jessica Pegula has just found things a bit too tough at the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments and that has happened more often than not. She can cause problems with her returning ability, but Anisimova may just have the slight edge at key moments and she can move through to the Semi Final at the Australian Open for the first time.

Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Lorenzo Musetti: It is not going to surprise anyone that 38 year old Novak Djokovic has produced declining numbers on the hard courts over the last couple of seasons.

However, all credit has to be given to the twenty-four time Grand Slam Champion that he continues to produce at a level that most mortals would consider very high.

The drop from the previous level is hard to ignore and makes it easy to not see Djokovic at the same light as previously, but this is a player that continues to look after himself very well and has all of the experience to deal with adversity.

He has yet to be given a real challenge at the Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court and receiving a walkover in the Fourth Round can only be a positive for him. It has been some time that Novak Djokovic has been making it openly known that he feels he has run out of steam at the business end of Grand Slams and not had the energy to beat Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, while also feeling that he would have to beat both to win a twenty-fifth Slam title.

Lacking energy cannot be an excuse when not having to go out on the court in what have been tough conditions over the last few days in Melbourne and Novak Djokovic is the favourite in this Quarter Final.

Lorenzo Musetti just crushed Taylor Fritz and so will be playing with a lot of confidence, while the Italian has easily had his best year on the hard courts. His opening to 2026 suggests Musetti can build on that, while he took a set from Novak Djokovic on the hard courts for the first time when facing him in the Final in Athens at the back end of the 2025 season.

Despite that, Lorenzo Musetti came up short and has lost all four hard court matches played against the former World Number 1 and so will have something to prove.

Here at Melbourne Park, Lorenzo Musetti has been serving pretty well and he is going to have to keep Novak Djokovic from taking control of rallies by producing a strong opening shot.

This has been a challenge for him against this opponent and that may show up over the course of the three plus hours that these two players will likely need to spend on the court.

Novak Djokovic will know that while he is struggling to keep up with the top two players in the world, like many on the ATP Tour, that there is also a closing of the gap between some of those climbing the World Rankings.

However, he still has some real aura on the court and Novak Djokovic can serve well enough to get out of one or two more jams compared with the World Number 5 and that should see the Serb come through in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Iga Swiatek @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 33-19, + 14.48 Units (106 Units Staked, + 13.66% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 27th January)

Taking a quick glance at the Quarter Final lineup at the Australian Open will make any Tennis fan pretty excited about the potential for some brilliant matches to conclude the opening Grand Slam of the season.

Top names, some new faces and conditions that offer plenty of challenges should make for some solid tennis and an opening of what could be a really good season on the Tour.

The last couple of days have been tougher for the Tennis Picks, which is never a positive, but hopefully that momentum can swing back on Day 10 and start a strong end to the tournament.

Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alex De Minaur: A thumping win over Alexander Bublik has sent a statement out to the rest of the field that Alex De Minaur is determined to end Australia's sixty year wait to have a Men's Champion at their own Grand Slam. There hasn't even been an Australian Men's Finalist since Lleyton Hewitt did that in 2005 and was beaten in four sets by Marat Safin, and Hewitt has been helping Alex De Minaur with any advice he needs.

Before all of that, De Minaur has other milestones to reach- he has never reached any Grand Slam Semi Final and breaking that duck at the Australian Open will mean so much to him.

The level being produced in the tournament has to be hugely encouraging for his fans, but Alex De Minaur has long been developing his game to try and see if that can bridge the gap to the top two players in the world.

In this Quarter Final, the World Number 6 has an opportunity to show how much he has learned when he takes on the top Seed and a player in Carlos Alcaraz who has shown little sign of losing his appetite for more and more Grand Slam successes.

The World Number 1 won the titles in Paris and New York City, but he has never been past the Quarter Final at the Australian Open as Carlos Alcaraz continues to chase a record of becoming the youngest player to ever complete the career Grand Slam.

In each of the last two years, Carlos Alcaraz has fallen at this stage of the Australian Open in four set defeats to Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic- the loss twelve months ago to the Serb will have really hurt considering Djokovic had displayed signs of battling through an injury and was forced to withdraw after a single set of the Semi Final.

All of that is forgotten though considering the successes Carlos Alcaraz has had in the months since that defeat and his hard court pedigree makes him very dangerous.

The numbers may not be as strong as Alex De Minaur's in the four wins produced, but Carlos Alcaraz is very comfortable and still looks like he may have gears to go through.

He will also have no real concerns about a match up against a player he has beaten in all five meetings on the pro Tour, even if there will be plenty of respect for the way Alex De Minaur has been extracting everything from his potential.

Carlos Alcaraz won both hard court meetings, which both took place on indoor courts in 2025, and he was able to break serve four times in each, while dropping serve twice.

As well as the home favourite has been serving this week, Alex De Minaur will recognise that the return player in front of him is more dangerous than most and that is going to be a factor. The pressure only builds when you think of how well Carlos Alcaraz has been serving and an entertaining match should eventually end with the top Seed moving through with enough breaks of serve to cover this spread, even if he is to drop a set.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Learner Tien: Both of these players really impressed in comprehensive Fourth Round matches and they should enter this Quarter Final with a lot of confidence.

The experience edge is most definitely on the side of Alexander Zverev, but Learner Tien is growing on the Tour every passing week and is set for another push up the World Rankings. Last year he made the Fourth Round here, but the destruction of three time former Finalist in Melbourne, Daniil Medvedev, has moved the 20 year old American into his first ever Quarter Final at Grand Slam level.

There are going to be nerves on both sides with the feeling that this is a good opportunity for both and these two players split two matches last year.

It was Learner Tien who won the sole hard court match, but Alexander Zverev beat the American at the French Open on a surface that the World Number 3 is going to be more comfortable than the youngster.

The hard courts are a different story and Learner Tien will have taken a lot of confidence from the manner of the victory over Daniil Medvedev.

There have been a couple of matches where the edges have been much tighter between Learner Tien and opponents he has beaten on his way to the Quarter Final, but overall he has looked good in the conditions. The serve is becoming a bit more consistent with 84% of the games played ending in a hold, and that has really allowed Learner Tien to take a grip of return games, where he has a lot of strengths.

Getting the ball back into play and then outworking opponents is the plan and Tien is comfortable with his defensive capabilities on a court.

Of course he will be dealing with a big Alexander Zverev serve and facing an opponent who feels he is as healthy as he has been since reaching the Final in Melbourne twelve months ago. There will be some pressure on Zverev to try and avoid a long match ahead of what could be a Semi Final against the top Seed, but he will also want to avoid being too aggressive and handing the errors over that Learner Tien will want to feast upon.

Alexander Zverev has been serving very big in the tournament with 72% of service points won and 90% of service games ending in a hold.

Some have criticised the World Number 3 for sometimes being a little passive on the court, but he has been returning with real authority in the run to the Quarter Final and that may be key to the outcome of this match.

The younger player is breaking new ground in Melbourne, but it may still be a little too much inexperience to deal with the occasion and that can help Alexander Zverev to come through in four sets.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Iva Jovic: For the thirteenth Grand Slam event in succession, Aryna Sabalenka has worked her way through to the Quarter Final, while she remains on course to compete for the title at the Australian Open for the fourth year in a row.

The top Seed did have an awkward Third Round win, but Aryna Sabalenka was able to control young upstart Victoria Mboko in the Fourth Round, although after blowing a lead in the second set and having to win the match on the Breaker to avoid having to go the distance.

In the main Aryna Sabalenka has to be very happy with the victory over Mboko, who looks like she is going to be competing at the very top of the WTA Tour in years to come.

Now the World Number 1 takes aim at another rising star on the Tour when taking on 18 year old Iva Jovic in the Quarter Final.

There has been plenty of noise about the potential of the 18 year old American, and the rise in the World Rankings over the last twelve months would have caught the eye. Iva Jovic entered the Australian Open as the World Number 27, meaning she was Seeded in the draw, but she is on course for a top 20 Ranking at the end of the event and there is even an opportunity to win the Grand Slam title and finish as a top 10 Ranked player.

All of those positives are almost certainly going to come for Iva Jovic, but the Auckland Finalist will also know that this is a big step in level of opponent. She has upset Jasmine Paolini in the Third Round in Melbourne, but Aryna Sabalenka has proven to be a consistent force on the WTA Tour and remains the favourite to win this title for a third time in four years.

The younger player has been serving very well in the tournament, but it should be noted that outside of the win over Jasmine Paolini, Iva Jovic has not had to face anyone higher than World Number 94 in other three wins. That has contributed to the stronger serving numbers, but anything that is not hitting the right marks in this one will be attacked by Sabalenka, who has been putting a lot of pressure right from the opening return of serve.

Iva Jovic has decent numbers on the return against top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, but that has slightly dipped against top 20 opponents.

The real issue is that the teenager has not faced Aryna Sabalenka and the power that will be felt from the other side of the court and it took Victoria Mboko a bit of time to become accustomed to that. However, she had been blown away in one set in that Fourth Round loss and Aryna Sabalenka feels capable of covering this spread, even if the match is plenty competitive at times.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 30-19, + 9.44 Units (100 Units Staked, + 9.44% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2026 (Monday 26th January)

Day 8 at the Australian Open was clearly the worst one of the week, but a 2-4 return could have been a lot worse and the overall numbers remain in a very strong position.

However, things can unravel pretty quickly in the coming days and it is important to remain focused and make sure this opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season (and opening tournament covered) sets a solid foundation for the remainder of the year.

Giving away such a positive start would be a real disappointment.

On Day 9, the Quarter Final lineup for both Men's and Women's tournaments will be set and that means another busy day of action.

However, the matches look pretty competitive on Monday and so there are 'only' three selections from the play to come, which can be read below.

Taylor Fritz v Lorenzo Musetti: The 2024 Wimbledon Quarter Final between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz was an entertaining five setter which was surprisingly won by the underdog Italian.

The odds are much tighter when they meet in the 2026 Australian Open with a place in the Quarter Final on the line.

We still have Taylor Fritz down as favourite in this Fourth Round match, which is not a surprise on the hard courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is being given a lot of respect. The World Number 5 actually is the higher Seed compared with Fritz, but there is little doubt that the latter is at his most comfortable on the hard courts.

Last year we did see Lorenzo Musetti pick up his level on this surface and that is backed up by the run to the US Open Quarter Final- his numbers were much improved on the hard courts and Musetti was able to compete at the Tour Finals for the first time in his career, which was another big achievement having broken through at Grand Slam level in Paris and New York City.

He has impressed here this week, but Musetti needed four and a half hours to get through his Third Round match and in very tough conditions- this has to have an impact on the gas tank, even with a day of rest between matches.

His opponent also needed to dig in to win his match, but Taylor Fritz did not need nearly as long out on the court and that is going to be important for him.

The American has also won both previous hard court matches against Lorenzo Musetti, including beating him a couple of months ago at the Tour Finals. That would have been a win in hostile surroundings, but Taylor Fritz is very experienced and his serve can be the big weapon in this match.

Over the first three matches here, Taylor Fritz has held 89% of his service games played compared with Musetti's 81% mark.

No one will be surprised that Lorenzo Musetti has produced the stronger returning numbers this week, but the conditions should be favourable to Taylor Fritz with the first strike very important here at Melbourne Park.

Taylor Fritz will take confidence from the win that was produced in Turin in November, albeit on an indoor hard court, although he will expect Lorenzo Musetti to offer plenty of resistance.

However, the longer this match goes, the more it should favour Taylor Fritz after the efforts Musetti made to get through his Third Round match, and the World Number 9 can reach his second Quarter Final at the Australian Open.

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The heat in Melbourne was intense enough on Saturday to have a rule in place that there would not be too much tennis played at the highest point of the day. Some matches were going to cross over and one of those involved Jannik Sinner, who was suffering very badly in the third set as he trailed by a break.

The upset at that point looked on course, but Jannik Sinner was perhaps fortunate to have the organisers decide that was the moment they would bring the players off the court and allow the organisers to put the roof in place to control conditions.

The World Number 2 was cramping and his team were highly concerned, but being able to head off the court and just take in the pickle juice and electrolytes to rebuild his strength proved to be crucial. While never being completely comfortable, Jannik Sinner was able to come through in four sets and the defending Champion will be hoping he can now really settle into the tournament.

It was the case when the won the title at Wimbledon back in July- he was trailing 2-0 in sets when Grigor Dimitrov picked up an injury that forced him to withdraw when looking the much stronger player and Jannik Sinner benefited by going on to win the event in SW19.

Jannik Sinner will feel there is room for improvement on the serve, which is going to be important in the second half of this tournament, but he is returning very well and that should give him the edge in this Fourth Round match. The fitness should not be an issue for Sinner after coming through some testing moments and he will have something of a mental edge against a compatriot.

An unexpected run to the Fourth Round will have given Luciano Darderi confidence, but it is still very difficult to ignore the overall record on the hard courts over the last couple of years.

Luciano Darderi has been serving well in Melbourne, but this is an opponent who will present a very difficult test for him.

It also means the World Number 25 will be under pressure to try and get into the Sinner service games if he is being put under the cosh on his own serve and this is a considerable increase in level of opponent compared with the players Luciano Darderi has beaten at the Australian Open.

When he played Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open in the Third Round, Luciano Darderi was not able to maintain a level to give the eventual Champion something to think about.

He was good enough to be competitive within a set, but Luciano Darderi may struggle to stick with Jannik Sinner much as he did against Alcaraz and the top Italian player on the ATP Tour can cover a big line.

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Xinyu Wang: This will be the fourth time Amanda Anisimova will be competing in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but the American has yet to make it through to the Quarter Final.

Despite reaching the last two Grand Slam Finals, Amanda Anisimova will be fairly comfortable that the attention of the sports writers for the women's tournament in Melbourne have focused on other names. The World Number 4 will be happy to continue her surge in the tournament without having to deal with additional pressure and Amanda Anisimova is playing at a decent level.

Peaking too early in a Grand Slam event is always a concern for players, but it does feel like Amanda Anisimova has some gears to go through, although she may not necessarily need them in this Fourth Round clash.

At the end of this tournament, Xinyu Wang will be back inside the top 40 of the World Rankings and another upset in the Fourth Round would mean setting a new career best mark.

She beat the World Number 13 in the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, Xinyu Wang has come up short when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. To her credit, she did give Elina Svitolina something to think about in losing the Auckland Final before getting the better of Linda Noskova in the last Round at this tournament, but Wang had been pretty well beaten in other matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in the months prior to these last results.

Recent form cannot be dismissed and Xinyu Wang is dangerous playing with her current level of confidence, although the second serve is a vulnerability.

This has also been something of an issue for Amanda Anisimova in her three wins at the Australian Open, although the higher Ranked player has been very convincing when her first serve has landed. She has also been seeing the ball very well as proven by the strong returning numbers produced and that may give her the edge in this Fourth Round match and a chance to pull away and cover a big spread.

A competitive set will also be expected where Xinyu Wang is able to get enough from her own first serve, but the overall expectation is that Amanda Anisimova is able to exert her strengths on the Fourth Round match and she can find the breaks of serve that she will need to get over this line.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Vctor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 29-17, + 12 Units (94 Units Staked, + 12.77% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Sunday 25th January)

It was not quite the day that would have been hoped, but a slight loss on Day 7 of the Australian Open has not had a massive impact in the overall tournament numbers.

The second week begins in Melbourne on Sunday and it is perhaps fortunate that all of the top names are still fighting it out for the first Grand Slam of the season- both Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner have had to come through real testing matches, but the former one through her quality and the latter was perhaps fortunate that the organisers called for a break in play through the 'heat rule' when he was trailing 3-1 in the third set and barely looking capable of walking, never mind running.

The break worked for the defending Champion, but he will have some questions to answer about his body in the next twenty-four hours.

At least the conditions on Monday look much more manageable when Sinner is next out, but before that we have a full day of action at Melbourne Park with the top half of the Fourth Round draws to be completed.

Picks from the day can be read below as the quality of matches tends to pick up at this stage of any of the big tournaments to be played on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Francisco Cerundolo: The continued dominance of Cameron Norrie on the professional Tour has helped Alexander Zverev reach the Fourth Round yet again at the Australian Open.

However, there are much bigger ambitions within the German's camp than merely getting to the second week of a Grand Slam and Alexander Zverev's team should be happy with the progress that has been made.

It has not been a perfect run with sets dropped in each of the three matches won, but the time spent on the court has not been too taxing, while Alexander Zverev will be pleased to hear the forecast for Sunday looks much better compared with what could be the brutal heat expected on Saturday. This should help the World Number 3 continue to manage himself and make sure there is plenty left in the tank when he will be expecting to face the top two players in the world to round out this Grand Slam.

The focus cannot be looking down the line and Francisco Cerundolo has plenty of hard court pedigree to deserve to be respected.

Upsetting Andrey Rublev in the Third Round means Cerundolo is unlikely to be overlooked and the World Number 21 has also beaten Alexander Zverev three times since May 2024.

All of those wins have been on the clay courts, including twice last year, but Alexander Zverev has begun to turn the head to head around- he won a match on the hard courts in Canada when Francisco Cerundolo had to withdraw in the second set, but more importantly Zverev has beaten this opponent on another hard court in Davis Cup aciton in November.

There wasn't a lot between the players in that Davis Cup match, but Alexander Zverev had been the slightly stronger server and that is going to be the key weapon in this Fourth Round match.

Experience could also be a factor that gives Alexander Zverev the edge- while he has reached Grand Slam Finals and been a feature of the Quarter Final and beyond, Francisco Cerundolo has only reached the Fourth Round (twice) at the French Open and had only reached the Third Round on a couple of occasions in hard court Grand Slam events, albeit both times here in Melbourne.

Francisco Cerundolo came through in straight sets against Andrey Rublev in the Third Round, but it was a match played on very fine margins.

This time those slight inches could go in favour of Alexander Zverev who will still feel there is more to come from his own serve, but who also has been returning the ball effectively enough to believe in his tennis.

Over the last twelve months, Francisco Cerundolo has lost five of seven hard court matches against top 10 Ranked opponents and his numbers have taken a significant dip in those outings.

He is unlikely to be rolled over easily, but Alexander Zverev can perform as he did in the Davis Cup win over this opponent and can move through in three or, more likely, four sets to take his place in the Quarter Final for the fifth time in seven years at the Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev-Learner Tien over 37.5 games: Twelve months ago, a young Qualifier moved into the main draw at the Australian Open and upset the then World Number 5 in the Second Round of the tournament.

Learner Tien was Ranked outside the top 100 in the 2025 Australian Open after battling through those Qualifying Rounds, but it has been a memorable twelve months for the 20 year old and more improvement is expected in the weeks and months ahead.

He only won one Grand Slam match at the French Open, Wimbleon and US Open combined, but Learner Tien clearly enjoys playing Down Under having reached the Fourth Round for a second year in a row. This time he is a Seeded player and has not had to win six matches to make the second week and that should mean Learner Tien has plenty in the tank for this big Fourth Round match.

Five sets were needed to avoid another early Grand Slam exit, but the American has won the last two matches with a single set dropped and, importantly, has only spent a few minutes over four hours on the court.

At his age, Learner Tien will have no excuses for being fatigued and the conditions on Sunday look much more comfortable compared with the day before.

On the other side of the court, Daniil Medvedev just about remained unbeaten in 2026 by coming from two sets down to win his Third Round match, although the World Number 12 needed almost four hours before finally getting past Fabian Marozsan.

He will be well aware of the challenge coming up having faced Learner Tien three times in 2025- all on the hard courts- and all of those matches entering a final set decider. The Second Round match between them in Melbourne lasted five sets, while the match in Beijing ended in a final set withdrawal for Medvedev.

However, the most recent match was played at the Shanghai Masters and Daniil Medvedev was finally able to edge past this opponent in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 victory.

There has been so little between the players in the three meetings and it would be a surprise if this match was decided in straight sets either way.

Nothing has come easy when Tien and Medvedev have met one another and both have struggled to consistently hold serve, which suggests this could be another match with several swings in momentum.

Both have held 66% of service games played against the other and Learner Tien has won 57% of service points played, while Daniil Medvedev is at 59%.

You have to give the narrowest of edges to Daniil Medvedev, even after the gruelling Third Round win, but this is likely to be a Fourth Round match that goes pretty long and that could see the players end up combining to surpass the total set.

Alexander Bublik-Alex De Minaur over 38.5 games: He has never hidden his disdain for playing on the hard courts, but something has clicked for Alexander Bublik.

Having only previously been beyond the Second Round once in eleven hard court Grand Slam tournaments played, Alexander Bublik reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2025. This surprised himself, but Bublik has had a very strong twelve months on the Tour and entered the tournament in Melbourne as the World Number 10, while keeping expectations at a minimum.

He won a title in the warm up to the Australian Open, but Alexander Bublik had never been beyond the Second Round here and had lost three straight First Round matches at this opening Grand Slam of the year.

Out of all of the Grand Slams played, Alexander Bublik particularly disliked the Australian Open, but he is feeling better about things. There were even some positive words said about the event, but he may not be so happy when having to deal with an opponent and the crowd as expected to be the case in this Fourth Round match.

Alexander Bublik has not dropped a set at the tournament and that is largely down to an improved serve that has produced holds in 93% of service games played. He has been able to back that up with some aggressive returning and Bublik looks a dangerous test for home favourite Alex De Minaur.

The World Number 6 has only dropped a single set at the tournament as he looks to at least match the Quarter Final run from 2025 and Alex De Minaur has impressed with the dominant wins that have been put on the board.

Like his opponent in the Fourth Round, Alex De Minaur has held in 93% of service games played at the tournament and has only faced 9 Break Points in the event.

However, the real difference has been the way in which the Australian has returned serve, which has always been a strength, and he has broken in 40% of return games played. He will be the first to admit that he has not faced a server as strong as Alexander Bublik, but Alex De Minaur has to be confident he can at least get himself into rallies and wear down this opponent.

That looked to be the case when Alex De Minaur led Alexander Bublik 2-0 in sets at the French Open, but the latter dug in and upset the Australian in five sets.

They met again at the Paris Masters at the end of the 2025 season and that was another huge battle, which was eventually won by Alexander Bublik in three sets. Both players won at least 67% of points behind serve in that match on an indoor hard court and the conditions at Melbourne Park have been pretty quick, which makes the serve hugely important to both players.

Overall the edge has to be with the home favourite who can use the crowd to keep him going when things get tough.

Alex De Minaur's return edge could also play out over the best of five set format, but you would expect both to win a set and the serving power of the two players could see this total games number surpassed.

There is a fragility around Alexander Bublik, which could show up at any time, so a fast start will be needed to just give himself confidence in what is going to be a tough environment. As long as he can serve as well as he has this month, Bublik can make this a tough test for Alex De Minaur and both players can put on a very strong match.

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Tommy Paul: The World Number 1 clearly admires Tommy Paul and admitted that he is expecting a very tough battle against this opponent in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.

They have matched up well with one another, but Carlos Alcaraz may be playing with a bit more confidence in his physicality compared with Paul, who has only recently stated that his foot is feeling much more like it did when fully healthy.

Tommy Paul is a very good hard court player and he has actually beaten Carlos Alcaraz twice in four meetings on the surface.

The most recent hard court match was at the Cincinnati Masters in August 2023 and Tommy Paul was able to take a set from Alcaraz on that day too, although this time the Spaniard had enough to win the decider in that tournament.

The numbers have been very similar in the hard court meetings between the players and that makes this a potentially awkward match for the top Seed.

However, Carlos Alcaraz has beaten Tommy Paul at Grand Slam events at Wimbledon and the French Open with the last of those being played several months ago in Paris. It is another surface on which Paul has played well, but those two Grand Slam defeats have seen the American struggle to stay with Carlos Alcaraz in the best of five set format and something similar may happen on Day 8 of this tournament.

Both players will recognise that this is the toughest obstacle they have faced at the Australian Open by some distance, but the edge remains with Carlos Alcaraz.

This will not be an easy match to win, but Carlos Alcaraz can wear down Tommy Paul and it does feel like the World Number 1 will be able to extract a little more out of his serve to earn the edges needed.

Covering is not goign to be easy either, but Carlos Alcaraz has managed to do that in the two Grand Slam wins over this opponent and may just be able to pull away in the latter stages of the contest.

Mirra Andreeva - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: There is no doubt that the Ukrainian players on the Tour are finding it easy to be motivated to take on Russian and Belarusian opponents- some would like to separate politics and sports, but it is not always possible and you can see that extra intensity in the matches involving players representing those nations.

A veteran like Elina Svitolina has made her feelings clear about the war in Eastern Europe and she has a very strong record against Russian players since returning to the Tour and being very vocal about events affecting her homeland.

It was on display in the Third Round as Svitolina moved past Diana Shnaider in straight sets, but beating this special teenage talent is going to need more than the heart.

Mirra Andreeva is still only 18 years old, but she is a top 10 Ranked player and it really does feel like it is only a matter of time before she wins a Grand Slam title. That could open the door for multiple more successes and Andreeva has looked pretty comfortable in the conditions in Melbourne.

Even a hostile crowd was not able to put her off her game in the win over Maria Sakkari, while Mirra Andreeva beat Elina Svitolina in straight sets in Indian Wells last year.

On that day she was clearly the superior server as the younger player held Elina Svitolina to just 23% return points won.

The World Number 12 has yet to drop a set in her run to the Fourth Round, but Elina Svitolina did not have things all of her own way in the Third Round and this is a considerable leap in level of opponent too.

Elina Svitolina is experienced and a player that will not give up, but she is 2-3 when facing top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

If she serves well, she will have a chance of the upset, but it feels like Mirra Andreeva is playing at a high enough level to eventually break down this opponent much like she did on the North American hard courts in 2025 and she can reach her first Quarter Final at the Australian Open.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: It may 'only' be the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but this is a contest between two players who will have genuine aspirations of winning the first Major of the 2026 season.

Both Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova are very comfortable on the hard courts and have enjoyed a solid month of tennis, while they have each dropped just a single set in three matches at the Australian Open.

Out of the two players, you would have to say that Coco Gauff has been a little more convincing than the 29 year old opponent she is facing, but there will be a lot of respect for the quality of tennis that Karolina Muchova can produce.

One of the remaining issues for Coco Gauff is the problems with the serve that continues to see her throw far too many Double Faults, and that is a hugely contributory factor in the poor second serve percentage of points won. It does put some pressure on the American to make sure she is getting plenty of first serves in play, but there is a belief that Gauff can actually protect the second serve pretty well too when she is not gift-wrapping free points.

The World Number 3 continues to be a very effective return player on the surface as well and that is where Coco Gauff may be able to work through some problems and progress past Karolina Muchova.

The latter is the World Number 19 and just crushed Magda Linette for the loss of just two games in the Third Round, but Karolina Muchova has not been as convincing as Gauff in the opening two wins.

Karolina Muchova should have the edge when it comes to the serving consistency, but this has not been a very good match up for her in the past.

All four professional matches between the players have been won by Coco Gauff and all of those have been on the hard courts- the last meeting came a little over twelve months ago in the United Cup building up to the 2025 Australian Open, but that was yet another one-sided win for the younger player.

They met in the US Open Semi Final in 2023 and that ended in a straight sets win for Coco Gauff, albeit in two tight sets- the other three wins have also been in straight sets, but in much more routine fashion, and this looks like a match up that works for Gauff as she can match the athleticism of Karolina Muchova.

It is Coco Gauff who tends to get a bit more out of the first serve when these two have faced off and that could be the key to this Fourth Round match.

Covering is not going to be easy against a player of Karolina Muchova's quality, but if Coco Gauff can stick around the 64% mark of first serves in play, she should have enough to contain the threats and ultimately find the breaks needed to make relatively serene progress into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev-Learner Tien Over 37.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik-Alex De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-13, + 16.74 Units (82 Units Staked, + 20.41% Yield)