NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Conference Championship (Sunday 26th January)

It has been a remarkable season and we are now just hours away from learning which two teams will be heading to the home of the San Francisco 49ers to compete for the Super Bowl.

Injuries have been a big factor throughout the 2025 season and those continue to have a big impact on the outlook for teams, even this late into the year.

The Denver Broncos lost their starting Quarter Back in the win over the Buffalo Bills, while the Seattle Seahawks have a Quarter Back fighting through the pain. Offensive Linemen and Defensive Linemen absentees can be so important at this time of the season when winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so very important.

Both Championship Games to be played on Sunday are intriguing with the factors around them, but it still feels like the winner of the NFC Championship will be a big favourite to win it all in two weeks time.

The AFC Champion is going to have something to say about that, but the focus has to be on the opponent in front of each team this Sunday and both games look like they can produce drama.

It has been a difficult season for the NFL Picks after a decent last few years, but my thoughts on the Conference Championship Games can be read below.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: There was some controversy attached to the end of the Denver Broncos (15-3) win over the Buffalo Bills with a long debate over whether the road team should have been awarded a catch in Overtime that would have put them in a position to win the game. If the decision on the field had ruled Brandin Cooks down with the ball, there would unlikely have been an overturn on the review, but that is in the books and it is the Broncos who will be hosting the AFC Championship Game as the Number 1 Seed.

Fans would have left the Stadium in buoyant mood, but that would have changed very quickly.

Quarter Back Bo Nix was quickly ruled out for the season having suffered an injury on the penultimate play of the Divisional Round win over the Bills.

All of a sudden, the Denver Broncos are going to be heading into the Conference Championship Game with a backup at the most important position of any sport.

Making it all the more challenging is that Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in the NFL since Week 18 of the 2023 regular season.

Head Coach Sean Payton is backing his Quarter Back to come in and do what is needed for the Denver Broncos and there will be plenty of respect for Stidham on the other sideline considering he was Drafted into the League by the New England Patriots (16-3).

He played under the guidance of Josh McDaniels and that should help the Patriots plan for what they may see from a Quarter Back that is the first since 1972 to have his first start of a season in the Conference Championship Game.

Josh McDaniels will be passing all of the data over to the New England Defensive unit, but he will also be focusing on making sure Drake Maye and company have a good plan to deal with what has been one of the top Defensive units in the NFL.

The Patriots have done just enough Offensively, but the run through to the Championship Round has been based on the performance on the other side of the ball. Drake Maye has had a very strong season at Quarter Back, but his two Playoff appearances this season have been erratic to say the least and he has to make sure he has better control of the football when he is being hit.

Turnovers could be a huge part of the outcome of this AFC Championship Game and so the Quarter Back has to be careful.

He will be looking to lean on the New England rushing attack, which has been operating well, and there looks to be an advantage on the Line of Scrimmage in favour of the Patriots. For much of the season the Broncos have been very good at stopping the run, but they have struggled towards the end of the regular season and into the Playoffs and keeping Drake Maye in front of the chains would give the Number 2 Seed a real advantage.

Third and manageable compared with third and long will be a huge difference for the New England Offensive unit.

Putting Maye in a position where he can make quick throws to keep the chains moving would be a distinct advantage, but holding onto the ball too long will allow the Denver pass rush to have a big impact in the contest. The Patriots Offensive Line have been very good at establishing the run, but the pass blocking has been something of a weakness and Drake Maye will not want to attempt to attack this Denver Secondary with the pocket collapsing around him.

You have to imagine the Broncos Defensive players have been focused this week in producing their absolute best to give the injury hit Offensive unit a boost.

They look capable of at least slowing down the New England Offense, which has not exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in the two Playoff wins, and that will give Jarrett Stidham an opportunity.

It would not surprise anyone if Sean Payton has a solid plan for his backup, but you have to believe the Broncos are going to want to get behind this Offensive Line and at least make sure they can establish the run.

JK Dobbins looks set to miss out again, which is another blow for the Offense, and the Broncos will have noted how effective this New England Defensive Line have been at playing the run in recent games. They have made things very difficult for the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans and so the game plan may be to get Jarrett Stidham comfortable and ask him to make some quick, easy throws to settle in, especially while New England anticipate plenty of early runs.

Head Coach Mike Vrabel has really put together a strong Defensive unit and they have a team that will feel they can shut down the Broncos.

If they can keep Denver in third and long, the New England Secondary will be full of confidence and belief in their Secondary having made Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud look very ordinary. They have also been turning the ball over with great success in the two Playoff wins, although Jarrett Stidham may be given a bit more protection behind the Denver Offensive Line than either Herbert or Stroud were afforded.

Those Interceptions being created by the Patriots have to be respected and New England do look capable of winning this one on the road.

However, there have only ever been 10 Road Favourites of 4 or more points in the Conference Championship Round and those teams are a perfect imperfect 0-10 against the spread.

Hosts that have been set as the underdog are on a 14-3 run against the spread in the NFL Playoffs over the last decade too.

Good teams do have a habit of stepping up their level to offer as much support as possible to a backup Quarter Back, while Denver are hosting, which should also be a big help.

Most are going to back the New England Patriots against Jarrett Stidham, but this Broncos Defensive unit can make this a low-scoring, competitive affair and that makes the points being given to the hosts appealing. The AFC hosts have tended to be the stronger at covering the spread in the Championship Game and the Denver Broncos will have a point to prove after the injury to Bo Nix and can keep this one close thanks to the Defensive unit going up against Drake Maye and company.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: For the third time this season, the Seattle Seahawks (15-3) and Los Angeles Rams (14-5) face off, but this time with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

If the previous two games are anything to go by, this is going to be an exciting, competitive contest that will come down to the final snap of the ball.

The Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle by 2 points when hosting them earlier in the season, but the most recent game in Week 16 of the regular season saw the Seahawks recover from a big deficit and earn a home win. This ultimately led to them finishing with the Number 1 record in the NFC and is the reason that the Seattle Seahawks host the Championship Game.

You want to know how competitive the games were in the regular season? The Rams had a single point advantage in the two games played and just ONE Offensive yard more than the Seahawks.

Seattle had been favoured when hosting in Week 16 and they are going into the Championship Game as a slightly stronger favourite- they played on Saturday in the Divisional Round and so have an extra day of rest, while the Rams had a very tough road game on Sunday that they could have easily lost in Overtime in frigid temperatures in Chicago.

That has been factored into the spread, while the Seahawks are also holding home advantage, which has been a key to the outcome of the majority of recent Conference Championship Games.

However, things are not exactly going smoothly for Seattle- Quarter Back Sam Darnold is playing through an injury, while Running Back Zach Charbonnet has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury suffered in the blowout of the San Francisco 49ers. There are still some issues on the Offensive Line, even though Charles Cross is back in practice to protect Darnold's blindside, and this is a match up that has been tough for Seattle in two regular season meetings.

Kenneth Walker III had a big outing at Running Back behind a powerful Seattle Offensive Line, but he will have a different test without his partner to come in and give him some time to rest. This week Walker III is also running against the Los Angeles Defensive Line, which is much stronger than the one he was facing last week, although the Seahawks will have confidence they can establish the Running Back.

This looks to be an important factor in the outcome of the game, especially as we are still not sure how healthy Sam Darnold is at Quarter Back- the Divisional Round blowout of the 49ers began very early and so Darnold was not under much pressure to drop back and throw the ball, but it is unlikely to be that comfortable in this game agains the Rams.

Any time Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are in third and long, the Rams pass rush is likely going to put the Quarter Back under significant pressure and that has not always been a position in which Darnold has thrived. There have been holes in the Rams Secondary that have been exploited in this Playoff run, which have been exploited by Bryce Young and Caleb Williams, but Seattle are a run first Offensive unit and the main ambition for Sam Darnold is to avoid giving this game away.

Instead he will be happy to play the field position and lean on a fantastic Seattle Defense that has continued to perform at a top level all season.

In recent games, the Seahawks Defensive Line have proved to be stout at clamping down on the run, while the Secondary have stepped in front of passes and turned the ball over.

However, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams have a potent passing game and talented Receivers who will feel they can break clear of some of the Defenders to be faced and offer up passing lanes down the field. Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a finger issue and Sean McVay admitted he did not give his Offensive unit the best game plan to deal with the Chicago Bears, but both are expected to be improved on Sunday.

Giving the Rams most confidence is the fact that they put up almost 600 Offensive yards and Matthew Stafford had over 450 passing yards in the narrow loss in this Stadium in Week 16.

They did blow that lead, but it will offer Stafford and company encouragement about what they can do in the Championship Game and he will also have Davante Adams available for this one. That gives the Rams another crease on the Offensive side of the ball and Los Angeles do have a very good balance in the team.

If the spread moved to the key number 3, it would be an easy choice to back the Los Angeles Rams in what should be another game that comes down to the wire.

On the current line, the Rams still look worthy of being selected with the points they are being given, but it could come down to a final Field Goal and it is a dangerous line.

NFC home teams are just 8-10 against the spread in the Championship Game, while home teams facing Divisional rivals are just 13-17 against the spread.

Blowing out the San Francisco 49ers will have caught the eye, but everything went right for the Seahawks from the opening kick off and NFL teams that have won home games by at least 35 points are 14-26-1 against the spread in the next game played.

There has been so little between the teams throughout the course of the season that it feels unlikely to be much different on Sunday so the points being given to the Los Angeles Rams looks the best play.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 50-65, - 20.31 Units (115 Units Staked, - 17.66% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2026 (Sunday 25th January)

It was not quite the day that would have been hoped, but a slight loss on Day 7 of the Australian Open has not had a massive impact in the overall tournament numbers.

The second week begins in Melbourne on Sunday and it is perhaps fortunate that all of the top names are still fighting it out for the first Grand Slam of the season- both Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner have had to come through real testing matches, but the former one through her quality and the latter was perhaps fortunate that the organisers called for a break in play through the 'heat rule' when he was trailing 3-1 in the third set and barely looking capable of walking, never mind running.

The break worked for the defending Champion, but he will have some questions to answer about his body in the next twenty-four hours.

At least the conditions on Monday look much more manageable when Sinner is next out, but before that we have a full day of action at Melbourne Park with the top half of the Fourth Round draws to be completed.

Picks from the day can be read below as the quality of matches tends to pick up at this stage of any of the big tournaments to be played on the Tour.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Francisco Cerundolo: The continued dominance of Cameron Norrie on the professional Tour has helped Alexander Zverev reach the Fourth Round yet again at the Australian Open.

However, there are much bigger ambitions within the German's camp than merely getting to the second week of a Grand Slam and Alexander Zverev's team should be happy with the progress that has been made.

It has not been a perfect run with sets dropped in each of the three matches won, but the time spent on the court has not been too taxing, while Alexander Zverev will be pleased to hear the forecast for Sunday looks much better compared with what could be the brutal heat expected on Saturday. This should help the World Number 3 continue to manage himself and make sure there is plenty left in the tank when he will be expecting to face the top two players in the world to round out this Grand Slam.

The focus cannot be looking down the line and Francisco Cerundolo has plenty of hard court pedigree to deserve to be respected.

Upsetting Andrey Rublev in the Third Round means Cerundolo is unlikely to be overlooked and the World Number 21 has also beaten Alexander Zverev three times since May 2024.

All of those wins have been on the clay courts, including twice last year, but Alexander Zverev has begun to turn the head to head around- he won a match on the hard courts in Canada when Francisco Cerundolo had to withdraw in the second set, but more importantly Zverev has beaten this opponent on another hard court in Davis Cup aciton in November.

There wasn't a lot between the players in that Davis Cup match, but Alexander Zverev had been the slightly stronger server and that is going to be the key weapon in this Fourth Round match.

Experience could also be a factor that gives Alexander Zverev the edge- while he has reached Grand Slam Finals and been a feature of the Quarter Final and beyond, Francisco Cerundolo has only reached the Fourth Round (twice) at the French Open and had only reached the Third Round on a couple of occasions in hard court Grand Slam events, albeit both times here in Melbourne.

Francisco Cerundolo came through in straight sets against Andrey Rublev in the Third Round, but it was a match played on very fine margins.

This time those slight inches could go in favour of Alexander Zverev who will still feel there is more to come from his own serve, but who also has been returning the ball effectively enough to believe in his tennis.

Over the last twelve months, Francisco Cerundolo has lost five of seven hard court matches against top 10 Ranked opponents and his numbers have taken a significant dip in those outings.

He is unlikely to be rolled over easily, but Alexander Zverev can perform as he did in the Davis Cup win over this opponent and can move through in three or, more likely, four sets to take his place in the Quarter Final for the fifth time in seven years at the Australian Open.

Daniil Medvedev-Learner Tien over 37.5 games: Twelve months ago, a young Qualifier moved into the main draw at the Australian Open and upset the then World Number 5 in the Second Round of the tournament.

Learner Tien was Ranked outside the top 100 in the 2025 Australian Open after battling through those Qualifying Rounds, but it has been a memorable twelve months for the 20 year old and more improvement is expected in the weeks and months ahead.

He only won one Grand Slam match at the French Open, Wimbleon and US Open combined, but Learner Tien clearly enjoys playing Down Under having reached the Fourth Round for a second year in a row. This time he is a Seeded player and has not had to win six matches to make the second week and that should mean Learner Tien has plenty in the tank for this big Fourth Round match.

Five sets were needed to avoid another early Grand Slam exit, but the American has won the last two matches with a single set dropped and, importantly, has only spent a few minutes over four hours on the court.

At his age, Learner Tien will have no excuses for being fatigued and the conditions on Sunday look much more comfortable compared with the day before.

On the other side of the court, Daniil Medvedev just about remained unbeaten in 2026 by coming from two sets down to win his Third Round match, although the World Number 12 needed almost four hours before finally getting past Fabian Marozsan.

He will be well aware of the challenge coming up having faced Learner Tien three times in 2025- all on the hard courts- and all of those matches entering a final set decider. The Second Round match between them in Melbourne lasted five sets, while the match in Beijing ended in a final set withdrawal for Medvedev.

However, the most recent match was played at the Shanghai Masters and Daniil Medvedev was finally able to edge past this opponent in a 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 victory.

There has been so little between the players in the three meetings and it would be a surprise if this match was decided in straight sets either way.

Nothing has come easy when Tien and Medvedev have met one another and both have struggled to consistently hold serve, which suggests this could be another match with several swings in momentum.

Both have held 66% of service games played against the other and Learner Tien has won 57% of service points played, while Daniil Medvedev is at 59%.

You have to give the narrowest of edges to Daniil Medvedev, even after the gruelling Third Round win, but this is likely to be a Fourth Round match that goes pretty long and that could see the players end up combining to surpass the total set.

Alexander Bublik-Alex De Minaur over 38.5 games: He has never hidden his disdain for playing on the hard courts, but something has clicked for Alexander Bublik.

Having only previously been beyond the Second Round once in eleven hard court Grand Slam tournaments played, Alexander Bublik reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2025. This surprised himself, but Bublik has had a very strong twelve months on the Tour and entered the tournament in Melbourne as the World Number 10, while keeping expectations at a minimum.

He won a title in the warm up to the Australian Open, but Alexander Bublik had never been beyond the Second Round here and had lost three straight First Round matches at this opening Grand Slam of the year.

Out of all of the Grand Slams played, Alexander Bublik particularly disliked the Australian Open, but he is feeling better about things. There were even some positive words said about the event, but he may not be so happy when having to deal with an opponent and the crowd as expected to be the case in this Fourth Round match.

Alexander Bublik has not dropped a set at the tournament and that is largely down to an improved serve that has produced holds in 93% of service games played. He has been able to back that up with some aggressive returning and Bublik looks a dangerous test for home favourite Alex De Minaur.

The World Number 6 has only dropped a single set at the tournament as he looks to at least match the Quarter Final run from 2025 and Alex De Minaur has impressed with the dominant wins that have been put on the board.

Like his opponent in the Fourth Round, Alex De Minaur has held in 93% of service games played at the tournament and has only faced 9 Break Points in the event.

However, the real difference has been the way in which the Australian has returned serve, which has always been a strength, and he has broken in 40% of return games played. He will be the first to admit that he has not faced a server as strong as Alexander Bublik, but Alex De Minaur has to be confident he can at least get himself into rallies and wear down this opponent.

That looked to be the case when Alex De Minaur led Alexander Bublik 2-0 in sets at the French Open, but the latter dug in and upset the Australian in five sets.

They met again at the Paris Masters at the end of the 2025 season and that was another huge battle, which was eventually won by Alexander Bublik in three sets. Both players won at least 67% of points behind serve in that match on an indoor hard court and the conditions at Melbourne Park have been pretty quick, which makes the serve hugely important to both players.

Overall the edge has to be with the home favourite who can use the crowd to keep him going when things get tough.

Alex De Minaur's return edge could also play out over the best of five set format, but you would expect both to win a set and the serving power of the two players could see this total games number surpassed.

There is a fragility around Alexander Bublik, which could show up at any time, so a fast start will be needed to just give himself confidence in what is going to be a tough environment. As long as he can serve as well as he has this month, Bublik can make this a tough test for Alex De Minaur and both players can put on a very strong match.

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Tommy Paul: The World Number 1 clearly admires Tommy Paul and admitted that he is expecting a very tough battle against this opponent in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open.

They have matched up well with one another, but Carlos Alcaraz may be playing with a bit more confidence in his physicality compared with Paul, who has only recently stated that his foot is feeling much more like it did when fully healthy.

Tommy Paul is a very good hard court player and he has actually beaten Carlos Alcaraz twice in four meetings on the surface.

The most recent hard court match was at the Cincinnati Masters in August 2023 and Tommy Paul was able to take a set from Alcaraz on that day too, although this time the Spaniard had enough to win the decider in that tournament.

The numbers have been very similar in the hard court meetings between the players and that makes this a potentially awkward match for the top Seed.

However, Carlos Alcaraz has beaten Tommy Paul at Grand Slam events at Wimbledon and the French Open with the last of those being played several months ago in Paris. It is another surface on which Paul has played well, but those two Grand Slam defeats have seen the American struggle to stay with Carlos Alcaraz in the best of five set format and something similar may happen on Day 8 of this tournament.

Both players will recognise that this is the toughest obstacle they have faced at the Australian Open by some distance, but the edge remains with Carlos Alcaraz.

This will not be an easy match to win, but Carlos Alcaraz can wear down Tommy Paul and it does feel like the World Number 1 will be able to extract a little more out of his serve to earn the edges needed.

Covering is not goign to be easy either, but Carlos Alcaraz has managed to do that in the two Grand Slam wins over this opponent and may just be able to pull away in the latter stages of the contest.

Mirra Andreeva - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: There is no doubt that the Ukrainian players on the Tour are finding it easy to be motivated to take on Russian and Belarusian opponents- some would like to separate politics and sports, but it is not always possible and you can see that extra intensity in the matches involving players representing those nations.

A veteran like Elina Svitolina has made her feelings clear about the war in Eastern Europe and she has a very strong record against Russian players since returning to the Tour and being very vocal about events affecting her homeland.

It was on display in the Third Round as Svitolina moved past Diana Shnaider in straight sets, but beating this special teenage talent is going to need more than the heart.

Mirra Andreeva is still only 18 years old, but she is a top 10 Ranked player and it really does feel like it is only a matter of time before she wins a Grand Slam title. That could open the door for multiple more successes and Andreeva has looked pretty comfortable in the conditions in Melbourne.

Even a hostile crowd was not able to put her off her game in the win over Maria Sakkari, while Mirra Andreeva beat Elina Svitolina in straight sets in Indian Wells last year.

On that day she was clearly the superior server as the younger player held Elina Svitolina to just 23% return points won.

The World Number 12 has yet to drop a set in her run to the Fourth Round, but Elina Svitolina did not have things all of her own way in the Third Round and this is a considerable leap in level of opponent too.

Elina Svitolina is experienced and a player that will not give up, but she is 2-3 when facing top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months.

If she serves well, she will have a chance of the upset, but it feels like Mirra Andreeva is playing at a high enough level to eventually break down this opponent much like she did on the North American hard courts in 2025 and she can reach her first Quarter Final at the Australian Open.

Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: It may 'only' be the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but this is a contest between two players who will have genuine aspirations of winning the first Major of the 2026 season.

Both Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova are very comfortable on the hard courts and have enjoyed a solid month of tennis, while they have each dropped just a single set in three matches at the Australian Open.

Out of the two players, you would have to say that Coco Gauff has been a little more convincing than the 29 year old opponent she is facing, but there will be a lot of respect for the quality of tennis that Karolina Muchova can produce.

One of the remaining issues for Coco Gauff is the problems with the serve that continues to see her throw far too many Double Faults, and that is a hugely contributory factor in the poor second serve percentage of points won. It does put some pressure on the American to make sure she is getting plenty of first serves in play, but there is a belief that Gauff can actually protect the second serve pretty well too when she is not gift-wrapping free points.

The World Number 3 continues to be a very effective return player on the surface as well and that is where Coco Gauff may be able to work through some problems and progress past Karolina Muchova.

The latter is the World Number 19 and just crushed Magda Linette for the loss of just two games in the Third Round, but Karolina Muchova has not been as convincing as Gauff in the opening two wins.

Karolina Muchova should have the edge when it comes to the serving consistency, but this has not been a very good match up for her in the past.

All four professional matches between the players have been won by Coco Gauff and all of those have been on the hard courts- the last meeting came a little over twelve months ago in the United Cup building up to the 2025 Australian Open, but that was yet another one-sided win for the younger player.

They met in the US Open Semi Final in 2023 and that ended in a straight sets win for Coco Gauff, albeit in two tight sets- the other three wins have also been in straight sets, but in much more routine fashion, and this looks like a match up that works for Gauff as she can match the athleticism of Karolina Muchova.

It is Coco Gauff who tends to get a bit more out of the first serve when these two have faced off and that could be the key to this Fourth Round match.

Covering is not going to be easy against a player of Karolina Muchova's quality, but if Coco Gauff can stick around the 64% mark of first serves in play, she should have enough to contain the threats and ultimately find the breaks needed to make relatively serene progress into the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev-Learner Tien Over 37.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik-Alex De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-13, + 16.74 Units (82 Units Staked, + 20.41% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson (Saturday 25th January)

There was a Friday morning card from Japan featuring the Monster and so the main thread for the week can be read here.

In this one, the focus is on the back to back cards Matchroom have scheduled from the United Kingdom and United States with twelve hours of Boxing for fans to enjoy.

The fighters the promotion are representing are hoping to get through tough challenges and then move onto World Title fights in the months ahead.

A decent undercard has been put together with other fighters looking to move into headlining events of their own and so it is an important night before the first Super Fight of 2025 next weekend.

Diego Pacheco vs Steven Nelson

Injury meant a big step backwards for Steven Nelson, and he has perhaps not been given the opportunities that he would have wanted as an unbeaten fighter.

He works with Terence Crawford and Bomac and Steven Nelson will be well prepared for a fight that could open the door for World Titles and big financial rewards in the weeks and months ahead.

A serious injury kept him out of the ring for a long time, but the Nelson return has been very slow with a single fight in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and against opponents nothing like the one he is facing in this bout in January.

Diego Pacheco has been told to 'wait his turn' by Bomac, but the 23 year old is impatient and the development of the young fighter has been very good. He has had those learning fights and those tough moments, and Diego Pacheco is looking to win this contest and then perhaps target the World Titles.

The younger of the two fighters is already pretty highly Ranked with three of the governing bodies and so Diego Pacheco could be in line for a World Title shot at some point over the next twelve months.

All of that will go to waste if he was to lose on Saturday and that is the pressure of this fight.

You know Steven Nelson will be well prepared in the gym and he will have gotten some solid sparring, while the tactics of his trainer are going to be spot on.

However, there is no moving away from the fact that Steven Nelson has been relatively inactive and all of the physical advantages are with the younger fighter. At 36 years old, Nelson will be well aware that sparring is not the same as actually fighting and so it has to be accepted that he is taking a considerable step up in terms of level of opponent compared with those he has faced in the past.

The progress of Diego Pacheco has been put together very well by his team and promoter and that activity gives him another advantage.

It may be a fight that is a slow burner, but Pacheco should build the pressure over the course of this Twelve Round fight and that may eventually see him just wear down Steven Nelson.

You have to give all of the respect to Nelson and his training team and you know he will be well prepared, but Diego Pacheco feels like a whole new level of experience for the veteran and the younger man can make a statement before calling out some of the Champions and bigger names in and around the Super Middleweight Division.

Andy Cruz is on the undercard and expected to continue on his fast track towards a World Title bid- he should be able to secure the victory, but finding a good angle to get behind him is very difficult.

A late Stoppage or a wide Points victory are the likely outcomes, but the layers are very much expecting the same.

There are also big expectations on the shoulders of 23 year old Ernesto Mercado who has an unbeaten record and found a Stoppage in fifteen in his sixteen victories.

A lot of those victories have been very early, but veteran Jose Pedraza could just push him a little longer, which can only be good for Mercado's development.

Last year Jose Pedraza was Stopped in the Sixth Round by Keyshawn Davis, who will be fighting for a World Title next month, but that is only his second defeat inside the distance. Arnold Barboza Jr needed the cards to get the better of Pedraza in 2023, while Vasyl Lomachenko is another who could not force this opponent to quit.

The layers are expecting another early night for Ernesto Mercado, but the feeling is that he will do well to end this quicker than Keyshawn Davis did and a small interest on the younger, progressive fighter to secure a Stoppage in the second half of this contest is warranted.

Before all of the action gets going in Las Vegas, Matchroom are putting on a card in Nottingham headlined by Dalton Smith who is expecting to make a significant move in his career in 2025.

Hopes of a domestic showdown with Adam Azim continue to be dashed with reports suggesting that was a fight being negotiated for the undercard of the upcoming Chris Eubank Jr-Conor Benn bout at the end of April, but Dalton Smith's career continues to develop in a positive trajectory.

Winning here could place Dalton Smith in the mandatory shot for the WBC World Title in the Light-Welterweight Division and the British fighter is a big favourite.

Walid Ouizza is the opponent for this vacant European Title that was once held by Adam Azim and Dalton Smith should have far too much for the Frenchman.

Early defeats in his career have been overcome, but this is another step upwards for Walid Ouizza and the power of Dalton Smith is expected to be a considerable factor in the outcome of this Title Fight.

Winning European Title fights are rarely easy, but Dalton Smith is chasing World honours and he is likely going to have the firepower to get on top relatively early on in this one.

Wearing down Walid Ouizza, Dalton Smith might be set for another mid-fight finish as he has secured in his last two wins and he can then target a really big fight, potentially at Hillsborough, in the summer.

MY PICKS: Diego Pacheco to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Ernesto Mercado to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Dalton Smith to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 3-1, + 3.53 Units (6 Units Staked, + 58.83% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2025- Women's Final (Saturday 25th January)

Injuries might have been the headlines on Day 13 of the Australian Open, although one of the Semi Final matches was completed and the other ended prematurely.

The fans were extremely upset with Novak Djokovic's decision to pull out of his Semi Final against Alexander Zverev moments after losing the first set tie-breaker, but booing him off the court is not really acceptable behaviour.

Maybe I am getting older, but a dominant, long time Champion and an all time great surely deserves more respect than he was afforded in Melbourne, while it truly feels like something that would not have happened a decade ago.

These days being a troll seems like a big career move for so many, but giving that kind of energy the oxygen it does not deserve has perhaps filtered into society in general. Instead of empathy and understanding, people feel like they own some of the great entertainers of our day and so 'deserve' to be given 'value for money'.

Don't misunderstand the situation, of course you're going to be disappointed if you had paid money to sit on the Rod Laver Arena and the match ended in that manner.

But it is not the first time this has happened and in previous years you would see the injured player given a warm applause rather than the disdain that seems to be reserved for Novak Djokovic, despite his obvious talents and impressive achievements.

Later in the evening, Jannik Sinner moved through to the Final for a second year in a row as he looks to defend the title won last year, but the World Number 1 definitely picked up an injury scare in the third set against Ben Shelton. Fortunately for the Italian, Ben Shelton could not avoid the Unforced Errors that just prevented him pushing the top Seed a little more having served for the first set and come up short.

It should be a good Men's Final on Sunday to round out the Australian Open, but before that we have a big hitting, potentially fun Women's Final to look forward to.

The fan in me hopes for a tight, competitive Final between Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka, although the head is suggesting something a little different.

You can see the train of thought below where the Pick for the Women's Final has been made with just two matches left at the Australian Open in 2025 and with a positive start to the season secured.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: There was a time when Aryna Sabalenka was seen as a player that would struggle to get over the line when it came to the absolute business end of Grand Slam tournaments.

A similar feeling had been around Madison Keys, but the difference between the two players is that Aryna Sabalenka kept getting into those Semi Final spots in the Grand Slams. This gave her the experience to eventually deal with her nerves and find a way through to the Final and then go on and win two Australian Open titles and one US Open.

The World Number 1 is still only 26 years old and the two time defending Australian Open Champion is the favourite to complete a hat-trick of titles here. Over the next twelve months, Aryna Sabalenka is going to be amongst the favourites to win every Grand Slam that she competes in and she certainly looks the clear best player in the world on the hard courts.

When Madison Keys reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2015 just a couple of weeks before she was turning 20 years old, American tennis fans may have felt the next big star of the sport was beginning to shine through.

However, the career has perhaps not panned out as Madison Keys or her supporters would have expected.

She has reached four further Semi Finals at Grand Slams and also played in the US Open Final in 2017, but there has been a lot of disappointing performances in the Majors around those strong runs. And after losing in the Semi Final here in Melbourne in 2022 and at the same stage in New York City in 2023, Madison Keys really did feel her hopes of winning a Grand Slam were over.

The loss at the US Open really hurt- Madison Keys took the first set 6-0 against Aryna Sabalenka that year, but was beaten 7-6, 7-6 in the next two sets and the World Number 14 was clearly devastated in the press conference.

An upset win over Iga Swiatek has given Madison Keys another chance to finally take home a Major, but she is still going to have to find another level to beat the peaking Aryna Sabalenka.

Madison Keys is going to have to find her best serving to try and keep Aryna Sabalenka under pressure, especially as her own return is going to be tested by the World Number 1. Making a fast start is important just to settle some nerves, but even in that US Open Semi Final that Madison Keys came so close to winning, it was a match that Aryna Sabalenka deserved to win even after dropping the first set without winning a game.

A much more routine win was produced by the Belarusian when these two players met in Beijing on the hard courts at the back end of last year and Aryna Sabalenka is producing at a higher level in this tournament. You have to believe the top Seed is very comfortable on the Rod Laver Arena these days and Aryna Sabalenka will know all about the occasion, which are factors that only strengthen her edge.

Once again, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has the edge on protecting the second serve as well as on the returning numbers and the two time defending Champion should have the qualities to break down Madison Keys in a competitive, but solid enough victory for the World Number 1.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-12, + 19.40 Units (75 Units Staked, + 25.87% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 25th January)

There have been some remarkable results throughout the fortnight at the Australian Open, but plenty of really good tennis too.

On Day 11 we were treated to a couple of top class men's Quarter Final matches, while also seeing a women's Semi Final line up completed which would have had been predicted by very few people before the tournament began.

No one will doubt the run Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have had and the winner of that Semi Final is expected to be a strong favourite in the Final.

But how many would have had Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska coming out of the top half as the other Finalist? At least Zheng reached the US Open Quarter Final and has long been talked about as having massive potential, but Dayana Yastremska's run has really come as a surprise.

She is a former World Number 21, but Yastremska was forced to come through the Qualifiers this year- she had not been past the First Round of a Grand Slam since returning from the ban she had been given after an adverse drugs test. It is a Semi Final that could be nervy for both players and may really come down to which of the two are serving better on the day, although the winner will be an underdog on Saturday in the Final.

Both women's Semi Finals are set to be played on Day 12 at the Australian Open as the tournament winds down and you can read my Picks below.

Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka over 21.5 games: It almost feels like the women's draw should have been re-Seeded considering the amount of upsets we have seen throughout the Australian Open. And so while the top half of the draw is going to give us a first time Grand Slam Finalist, the bottom half has put together a Semi Final between the two players who won their maiden major in 2023.

The Australian Open crown is being defended by Aryna Sabalenka, but Coco Gauff won the US Open by coming from behind to beat the World Number 2 in the Final.

It is perhaps a mental edge the American can take into this Semi Final having struggled in her Quarter Final win over Marta Kostyuk. Prior to that Coco Gauff had been in imperious form on the hard courts, but there were some nerves and the power of her opponent certainly gave Gauff plenty to think about.

Now she has to take on arguably the most powerful player on the WTA Tour and one who has been dominating all that have stood in front of her in Melbourne. There has been little drama for Aryna Sabalenka, but most will feel that there is a massive obstacle for her to overcome if she is going to win a second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.

In a warm up event to the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka crushed all opponents before running into Elena Rybakina in the Final and winning just three games. There is no doubting the quality of her front-running, but Sabalenka has yet to show she can handle someone coming at her and Coco Gauff has a history of doing that in their head to head match ups.

Coco Gauff has the head to head advantage on the hard courts with a 3-2 lead over Aryna Sabalenka, but nothing has come easy and four of the previous five matches between these two on this surface have needed a deciding set.

The 'easiest' win came for Sabalenka in Indian Wells in March 2023, but the rest of the matches have been massively competitive and the numbers have backed that up.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Aryna Sabalenka has tended to have more Break Points than Coco Gauff, but the latter has tended to play those big moments a little more efficiently. That has given her the chance to have the lead in the head to head on the hard courts and it is going to be a huge part of this match.

Aryna Sabalenka's level in this tournament has been historically strong and she is certainly capable of blowing past Coco Gauff as she did in Indian Wells. However, the feeling is that Gauff will grow having come through a tough test in the Quarter Final and showed her Champions mentality, while we have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka need to overcome difficult moments.

There is likely to be a number of close games in the match and both players are Grand Slam Champions now- there will be some nerves knowing the winner is going to be a big favourite in the Women's Final on Saturday and that may mean some twists and turns in a match up that has produced them regularly in the past.

Three sets were needed in the US Open Final and this is another match between these two Slam Champions that could need a deciding set.

Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: The top four names on the WTA Tour have been in and around the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments over the last twelve months, but the women's draws continue to throw up new names making strong runs.

The 2024 Australian Open has proven to be no different and the top half of the draw has really seen a surprising Semi Final match up being set.

Both Dayana Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng were able to win their Quarter Final matches on Day 11 of the tournament and that has meant not having a day of rest to appreciate what they have done. Facing one another will certainly build some tension as both players will look at this Semi Final as a very winnable one, while nerves ahead of the biggest match of their careers is going to be understandable.

It is slightly problematic that Qinwen Zheng played in the second Quarter Final and that she had an hour extra on the court, but it was not such an intense match that she can use that as an excuse if Zheng is unable to make the Final. There has been plenty of positive talk around this player over the last eighteen months to believe Qinwen Zheng had the qualities to win a Grand Slam title, but it has perhaps come a little quicker than anticipated.

That won't matter and it does feel like Zheng is building momentum.

After three less than ideal performances, Qinwen Zheng has certainly picked up her level in her last two wins in the tournament, which will give her confidence. At the same time you cannot argue that the draw was anything but kind to the soon to be top 10 Ranked player and Zheng has not had to beat anyone Ranked higher than Number 54.

Coming into the tournament, Dayana Yastremska was struggling down at World Number 93 and had to come through the Qualifiers, but she will be back inside the top 30 at the end of the Australian Open. The Ukrainian is certainly playing much higher than the current Ranking number next to her name and Yastremska is likely taking inspiration from Emma Raducanu who won the US Open as a Qualifier in 2021.

That run truly came out of left field, but Dayana Yastremska is a former World Number 21 and is hitting the ball very big at the moment. The fact is all of her wins in the main draw at the Australian Open have been against top 50 Ranked opponents and so her numbers look pretty impressive with that in mind.

Both of these girls have served very well and that has allowed them to dictate the tempo of their matches.

Out of the two, Qinwen Zheng has been getting a bit more out of the first serve and is a big ace hitter, but she is also only getting 53% of her first serves in play. Allowing Dayana Yastremska to see a lot of second serves will be a problem considering the Ukrainian has been winning more points on the return compared with Zheng, while she has also had a bit more protection of the second serve.

Nerves are the big 'x factor' that really cannot be determined, but Qinwen Zheng did reach the US Open Quarter Final in September and that may help her.

However, Dayana Yastremska has played with a real freedom and having a bit more time to prepare for the match could be the key to keeping this one close and competitive. It has been a long tournament for the Qualifier and conditions will be different in the evening compared with the Quarter Final being played in the day, but Yastremska looks more tested and that may be the big advantage she has over Qinwen Zheng, who is facing a significantly tougher test than at any other time in Melbourne this week.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 21-46, - 55.20 Units (134 Units Staked, - 41.19% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2023 (January 25th)

One half of the Semi Final line up has been confirmed and the remaining four places will be decided on Day 10 at the tournament.

There is a full day of action on the Rod Laver Arena beginning with the two women's Quarter Final matches followed by the men.

Ben Shelton-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 games: It was not a good day for American tennis on Tuesday at the Australian Open as two players fell at the Quarter Final stage of the tournament, one each from the men's and women's draws. However, it is not all doom and gloom with this Quarter Final guaranteeing at least one player into the last four as the two remaining American players meet one another in what should be a big hitting match.

Both Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul have surprisingly made their way through to the Quarter Final, although the inexperienced Shelton has arguably benefited from a kind draw. While he has yet to beat a player Ranked inside the top 66, Tommy Paul has beaten three players from inside the top 40 to make his way into the last eight.

In recent seasons Tommy Paul has been a much improved player on the Tour and his numbers on his favourite surface, the hard courts, have reflected the improvement made. He reached his career best World Ranking last September at Number 28, but a win on Day 10 at the Australian Open will mean Paul is going to crack the top 20 regardless of how much further he progresses in the tournament.

That is a huge motivation, as well as the opportunity to perhaps win his first ever Grand Slam title, but Tommy Paul would be making a real mistake overlooking his compatriot. Amazingly, Ben Shelton had not played outside of the United States before heading 'Down Under' to play a couple of warm up events prior to the Australian Open and he has taken full advantage of the way the draw has broken down for him.

However, it would be wrong to say Ben Shelton is just an opportunist considering he ended last season with three straight titles at the Challenger level. He is inexperienced, but the lefty has a big serve and he has won 76% of the points played behind the serve at the Australian Open, which has unsurprisingly led to holds in 96% of service games played.

It will always give the young American a chance and having the confidence in the serve will also put opponents under significant pressure knowing one lapse in concentration could cost them a set. Tommy Paul will be aware of that, but he will be happy enough with his own level of serving with 88% of games held in the tournament and that despite playing the higher quality of opponent compared with Ben Shelton.

A real difference between the players is the return of serve and that is where the favourite, Tommy Paul, has a significant edge. He has broken in 33% of return games at the tournament, but has regularly managed 28% break rates over the course of a season on the hard courts in recent years, while Ben Shelton has only broken in 13% of return games played.

Ben Shelton's break percentage is much better on the Challenger Tour, but it is still below the mark that Tommy Paul has produced on the main ATP Tour and it could prove to be significant when it comes to the tie-breakers that are likely going to be needed.

My edge is with Tommy Paul to use his experience and return game to just about move past Ben Shelton, but I would be surprised if the young American completely wilted away. This is a new situation for Shelton to deal with, but if he serves as well as he can, he will feel he can at least take a set from Tommy Paul and I think the two players could combine to surpass the total games line set.

I thought it might be a few more games higher than where the total currently stands and it would be a surprise if either player is blown away. A three set win for either would mean the total cannot be surpassed, but I anticipate both will win a set and it could be a day for the servers on Rod Laver Arena.

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Andrey Rublev: There has been some frustration from Novak Djokovic and his camp that some have sought to downplay the injury he has been dealing with throughout the Australian Open. It may have something to do with the fact he looked to be really struggling two years ago before comfortably working his way through the draw and his Fourth Round win over Alex De Minaur was also very 'easy' a couple of days ago.

Personally I do think there is an issue, but I am not sure it is as serious as it has sometimes looked. It does have to be managed, as any sore hamstring would need, but Novak Djokovic is certainly going to be strong enough to finish this event and it is going to take a special effort to beat him on a court he has long dominated.

Andrey Rublev won't be intimidated by the challenge, even though he has lost two of the three previous matches against the former World Number 1. Both of those defeats have been indoor hard court defeats at the ATP Tour Finals, but the main reason Andrey Rublev should not worry about beating Novak Djokovic in a place he is very comfortable is because his one win came last year in Belgrade.

That was on a clay court, but Novak Djokovic is a very comfortable player on that surface so the win should not be downgraded. On that day Andrey Rublev got a bit more out of the serve and was able to win the big points, but he was very strong on the return of serve and is going to need to be very effective on this side of the net if he is going to upset the favourite for the title.

It has been a different story in the two hard court matches though and Novak Djokovic has had a massive edge over Andrey Rublev- he has held 94% of his service games played in those two matches compared with Rublev's 56% mark and that has to be a real confidence booster for the fans of the Serb.

Barring a couple of slip ups against Grigor Dimitrov in the Third Round, Novak Djokovic has been serving at an incredible level through this Australian Open tournament and has held 94% of the service games played. I do think Andrey Rublev can test that, but he is coming in off an emotional and physical match against Holger Rune and you do have to factor in the lack of success in return games the Russian has had against Djokovic in their hard court matches.

Andrey Rublev has also been serving well in the four matches won in Melbourne after struggles in losses in warm up events earlier this month. That is key for him again to try and keep Novak Djokovic under some pressure, but the latter has been returning at a very high level all week and he has broken at least five times in all four wins, while winning 47% of return points played leading to breaks in 42% of return games played.

This is a big spread as far as the level of Andrey Rublev at his best is concerned and with some doubts about how healthy Novak Djokovic is, but I do think their previous hard court matches suggest that Djokovic will be the dominant player. I expect one or two sets to be close, but Novak Djokovic should be able to put at least one set in the bank with a double break of serve and that can see him cover this handicap mark set.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Donna Vekic + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 37-28, + 7.78 Units (126 Units Staked, + 6.17% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2022 (January 25th)

The last couple of days at the Australian Open have begun to produce the upsets and Day 8 was a day when another couple of big names departed, while others barely scraped over the line.

The Women's draw continues to be wide open and that was underlined by the likes of Alize Cornet and Sorana Cirstea being able to turn back the clock- Cornet managed to beat Simona Halep, but Cirstea came up short.

However, the performances underlined the fact that anyone can beat anyone and it is the main reason we have had so many new Grand Slam Champions and surprise winners.

The top of the game needs a big time rivalry though and I am hoping Ashleigh Barty is going to be at least one of the players that looks to become the dominant force on the Tour. She will need a rival to go with her and bring in new eyes on the sport, especially at a time when the likes of Serena Williams look on the brink of retiring.

The Quarter Final line up has been set and the top half of the Men's and Women's draws will get to play on Rod Laver Arena through Day 9 at the tournament.

After a poor Day 8 for the Tennis Picks, I am hoping the following selections can help me bounce back and move the totals back in a positive direction.

Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Denis Shapovalov: Being a higher Seeded player has meant Rafael Nadal has had an 'easier' path through to this Quarter Final and it is underlined by the fact he has yet to face someone Ranked higher than Number 30. That all changes for Rafael Nadal on Tuesday as he gets set to try and return to another Semi Final at the Australian Open when he takes on a fellow lefty, Denis Shapovalov.

The young Canadian looked really impressive in the Fourth Round when dismissing Alexander Zverev in straight sets and all of his wins at the Australian Open have come against players Ranked inside the top 60. You have to keep that in mind when looking at the numbers that both Denis Shapovalov and Rafael Nadal have produced in this tournament, although there is some pressure on Shapovalov.

As well as he has played, his return is still a big weakness and you can just imagine that the 20 time Grand Slam Champion looking to make history by putting 21 on the board will know all about that. I expect Rafael Nadal to look to contain the threat of Denis Shapovalov with his own serve working very well in the Australian Open so far, although the Spaniard has been beaten by this opponent on a hard court before.

It is a result that will focus Rafael Nadal and came in the first ever match against Denis Shapovalov- the latter was a little fortunate that day and he has lost the next three matches against Nadal, including in their last meeting on the hard courts.

The match between these two was highly competitive on a clay court last year and I do think Denis Shapovalov will be able to play some tennis which will be tough for Rafael Nadal to deal with. However, it should be pointed out that Rafael Nadal has been the more productive return player in their head to head and the Spaniard has been very strong on this side of his game at the Australian Open as Nadal looks to extend his unbeaten start to the season.

If Denis Shapovalov serves as he can, I do think he will win a set, but Rafael Nadal looks like he matches up pretty well with the youngster. At some point Denis Shapovalov will break through past one of the Big Three, but I think the return has to be significantly improved and I am going to look for the Spaniard to reach the Semi Final in three or four sets.

Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 sets v Gael Monfils: It has been a very good career, but this looks like being one of the last chances for Gael Monfils to fulfil the potential most believed he had before he turned pro.

At 35 years old, the Frenchman looked to have seen his best days on the court, but Gael Monfils has had a very strong Indian Summer in Australia and he has managed to win a title already. He has backed that up very well with Gael Monfils winning all four matches at Melbourne Park without dropping a set and his numbers have been very strong.

Gael Monfils has held almost 93% of the service games played at the Australian Open and that has allowed him to put a lot of pressure on his opponents. That has helped Gael Monfils in breaking in 44% of return games too, although the level of performance suggests the Frenchman may already have peaked in the tournament.

That will be a major problem for Gael Monfils if it proves to be true as he is next up against Matteo Berrettini who has become a very familiar face at the business end of Grand Slam tournaments. He reached the Final at Wimbledon last year and the Italian is the favourite to make his way to the Semi Final at the Australian Open after crushing Pablo Carreno Busta in the Fourth Round.

Matteo Berrettini has not impressed as much as Gael Monfils in terms of pure numbers, but the Italian has had a much more difficult run. His serve continues to be a potent weapon with 92% of games being held in this tournament, but Matteo Berrettini has done enough with his return to find the breaks he has needed to win matches.

It should be noted that he has dropped four sets already in the tournament and I do think Gael Monfils will push Matteo Berrettini, much like he did when these two met in the Quarter Final at the US Open in 2019. On that occasion it took five sets to decide a winner, although Berrettini was a much more comfortable winner when these two met at the ATP Cup in 2021.

The numbers in the two matches between these players on the hard courts do not make good reading for Gael Monfils and I do think this is a big step up for him. Winning the title in Adelaide is a confidence booster for the Frenchman, but he has yet to face anyone Ranked inside the top 20 of the World Rankings in 2022 and I think a battle hardened and progressing Matteo Berrettini will have too much for him.

Both players have been serving well, but the feeling is that Matteo Berrettini is more likely to sustain the current levels and Gael Monfils may not be able to get into the return games as he has in this tournament. I expect him to be closer than he was when losing in straight sets at the ATP Cup, but at the same time I think Matteo Berrettini is much improved from September 2019 and he can find a way to win this one in much cleaner fashion than their last hard court Quarter Final meeting at a Grand Slam.

Madison Keys v Barbora Krejcikova: There is still going to be a real feeling within every player left in the Women's draw that they can win this Grand Slam and the wide open nature of the draw means there have been plenty of close matches, upsets and good tennis to watch.

Both Madison Keys and Barbora Krejcikova won their Fourth Round matches as the underdog and I think there is going to be a confidence in their tennis in this Quarter Final. Barbora Krejcikova is a Grand Slam Champion, but Madison Keys is playing as close to her best as is possible and has reached the business end of three of the four Grand Slams.

The American is a former Semi Finalist here in Melbourne and will be looking to match that run at the very least, while Madison Keys has reached the Final at the US Open before coming up a little short on the day. Recent seasons have been much tougher for Madison Keys who has not reached a Quarter Final at a Grand Slam since 2019, but she has played at a very high level this month.

It is a level that has already produced a title for Madison Keys, but she will be challenged all the way by Barbora Krejcikova who reached the Final of a warm up tournament before the Australian Open began. The Czech player dominated Victoria Azarenka in the last Round, but I think Krejcikova will know full well that this is a different kind of test and one that should be much tougher.

Both players have been serving really well, but it is Barbora Krejcikova who has performed a little better on the return- it is the main area of concern for Madison Keys and has perhaps been the reason she has fallen down the World Rankings, but I do think the American has her eye in so far this month.

The key for both players is trying to get enough first serves in so they can play first strike tennis, and I am giving Madison Keys enough of an edge in this one to make her worthy of backing. The American has been more consistent of the two players in the tournament so far and I think at key moments in this match that should stand her in good stead as Madison Keys becomes the first Semi Finalist at the Australian Open in 2022.

Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: When you look at the final eight names left in the Women's draw at the Australian Open in 2022, most would likely tip up Ashleigh Barty as the favourite to win this Grand Slam tournament. There is pressure on her shoulders with the expectant home crowd long believing Ashleigh Barty can end the long wait for a home winner Down Under, but so far the Australian is more than holding her nerve.

Instead Ashleigh Barty has been coasting her way through the opening four Rounds of the Australian Open and she has backed up her performances in winning a title earlier this month. In fact she lost her set played in 2022 and all Ashleigh Barty has done since then is win sixteen sets in a row to produce an 8-0 record.

To underline the dominance, only four of those sets have seen Ashleigh Barty lose four or more games and you won't be surprised that the numbers have been very strong. That suggests she has been very good rather than lucky, although Barty may be the first to admit she expects more from the return of serve.

In the four wins at Melbourne Park the returning numbers have been impressive and the biggest challenge may be between the ears for Ashleigh Barty who has reached the Quarter Final for a fourth year in a row. Only one of those have been converted into a Semi Final place and Barty will know this is going to be anything but a walkover when facing Jessica Pegula.

The American lost both matches before the Australian Open begun, but she made her breakthrough at the Australian Open last year and has backed that up by reaching the Quarter Final again.

A flat Maria Sakkari was beaten in the Fourth Round, but Jessica Pegula has not been that impressive on her run to the Quarter Final this time around and I do think she is going to have raise her game two or three notches to be competitive in this Quarter Final. The serve is a pretty good weapon for Jessica Pegula, but she is only winning 42% of return points in this tournament and Pegula won three tight matches earlier in the tournament.

Those were against players Ranked way below Ashleigh Barty and their sole previous meeting came at the French Open which was won by the Australian in straight sets. That was in the First Round in 2019 and Ashleigh Barty went on to win her first Grand Slam title so she will be hoping a win over Jessica Pegula could be part of another Slam success.

I do think Jessica Pegula will be competitive, but I think Ashleigh Barty will have the lion share of the break points and her current form could see her pull away for a win and a cover of this spread.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Madison Keys @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 34-26, + 5.78 Units (120 Units Staked, + 4.82% Yield)