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Showing posts with label January 26th. Show all posts
Showing posts with label January 26th. Show all posts

Sunday, 25 January 2026

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2026 (Monday 26th January)


Day 8 at the Australian Open was clearly the worst one of the week, but a 2-4 return could have been a lot worse and the overall numbers remain in a very strong position.

However, things can unravel pretty quickly in the coming days and it is important to remain focused and make sure this opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season (and opening tournament covered) sets a solid foundation for the remainder of the year.

Giving away such a positive start would be a real disappointment.

On Day 9, the Quarter Final lineup for both Men's and Women's tournaments will be set and that means another busy day of action.

However, the matches look pretty competitive on Monday and so there are 'only' three selections from the play to come, which can be read below.


Taylor Fritz v Lorenzo Musetti: The 2024 Wimbledon Quarter Final between Lorenzo Musetti and Taylor Fritz was an entertaining five setter which was surprisingly won by the underdog Italian.

The odds are much tighter when they meet in the 2026 Australian Open with a place in the Quarter Final on the line.

We still have Taylor Fritz down as favourite in this Fourth Round match, which is not a surprise on the hard courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is being given a lot of respect. The World Number 5 actually is the higher Seed compared with Fritz, but there is little doubt that the latter is at his most comfortable on the hard courts.

Last year we did see Lorenzo Musetti pick up his level on this surface and that is backed up by the run to the US Open Quarter Final- his numbers were much improved on the hard courts and Musetti was able to compete at the Tour Finals for the first time in his career, which was another big achievement having broken through at Grand Slam level in Paris and New York City.

He has impressed here this week, but Musetti needed four and a half hours to get through his Third Round match and in very tough conditions- this has to have an impact on the gas tank, even with a day of rest between matches.

His opponent also needed to dig in to win his match, but Taylor Fritz did not need nearly as long out on the court and that is going to be important for him.

The American has also won both previous hard court matches against Lorenzo Musetti, including beating him a couple of months ago at the Tour Finals. That would have been a win in hostile surroundings, but Taylor Fritz is very experienced and his serve can be the big weapon in this match.

Over the first three matches here, Taylor Fritz has held 89% of his service games played compared with Musetti's 81% mark.

No one will be surprised that Lorenzo Musetti has produced the stronger returning numbers this week, but the conditions should be favourable to Taylor Fritz with the first strike very important here at Melbourne Park.

Taylor Fritz will take confidence from the win that was produced in Turin in November, albeit on an indoor hard court, although he will expect Lorenzo Musetti to offer plenty of resistance.

However, the longer this match goes, the more it should favour Taylor Fritz after the efforts Musetti made to get through his Third Round match, and the World Number 9 can reach his second Quarter Final at the Australian Open.


Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The heat in Melbourne was intense enough on Saturday to have a rule in place that there would not be too much tennis played at the highest point of the day. Some matches were going to cross over and one of those involved Jannik Sinner, who was suffering very badly in the third set as he trailed by a break.

The upset at that point looked on course, but Jannik Sinner was perhaps fortunate to have the organisers decide that was the moment they would bring the players off the court and allow the organisers to put the roof in place to control conditions.

The World Number 2 was cramping and his team were highly concerned, but being able to head off the court and just take in the pickle juice and electrolytes to rebuild his strength proved to be crucial. While never being completely comfortable, Jannik Sinner was able to come through in four sets and the defending Champion will be hoping he can now really settle into the tournament.

It was the case when the won the title at Wimbledon back in July- he was trailing 2-0 in sets when Grigor Dimitrov picked up an injury that forced him to withdraw when looking the much stronger player and Jannik Sinner benefited by going on to win the event in SW19.

Jannik Sinner will feel there is room for improvement on the serve, which is going to be important in the second half of this tournament, but he is returning very well and that should give him the edge in this Fourth Round match. The fitness should not be an issue for Sinner after coming through some testing moments and he will have something of a mental edge against a compatriot.

An unexpected run to the Fourth Round will have given Luciano Darderi confidence, but it is still very difficult to ignore the overall record on the hard courts over the last couple of years.

Luciano Darderi has been serving well in Melbourne, but this is an opponent who will present a very difficult test for him.

It also means the World Number 25 will be under pressure to try and get into the Sinner service games if he is being put under the cosh on his own serve and this is a considerable increase in level of opponent compared with the players Luciano Darderi has beaten at the Australian Open.

When he played Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open in the Third Round, Luciano Darderi was not able to maintain a level to give the eventual Champion something to think about.

He was good enough to be competitive within a set, but Luciano Darderi may struggle to stick with Jannik Sinner much as he did against Alcaraz and the top Italian player on the ATP Tour can cover a big line.


Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 games v Xinyu Wang: This will be the fourth time Amanda Anisimova will be competing in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but the American has yet to make it through to the Quarter Final.

Despite reaching the last two Grand Slam Finals, Amanda Anisimova will be fairly comfortable that the attention of the sports writers for the women's tournament in Melbourne have focused on other names. The World Number 4 will be happy to continue her surge in the tournament without having to deal with additional pressure and Amanda Anisimova is playing at a decent level.

Peaking too early in a Grand Slam event is always a concern for players, but it does feel like Amanda Anisimova has some gears to go through, although she may not necessarily need them in this Fourth Round clash.

At the end of this tournament, Xinyu Wang will be back inside the top 40 of the World Rankings and another upset in the Fourth Round would mean setting a new career best mark.

She beat the World Number 13 in the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, Xinyu Wang has come up short when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. To her credit, she did give Elina Svitolina something to think about in losing the Auckland Final before getting the better of Linda Noskova in the last Round at this tournament, but Wang had been pretty well beaten in other matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in the months prior to these last results.

Recent form cannot be dismissed and Xinyu Wang is dangerous playing with her current level of confidence, although the second serve is a vulnerability.

This has also been something of an issue for Amanda Anisimova in her three wins at the Australian Open, although the higher Ranked player has been very convincing when her first serve has landed. She has also been seeing the ball very well as proven by the strong returning numbers produced and that may give her the edge in this Fourth Round match and a chance to pull away and cover a big spread.

A competitive set will also be expected where Xinyu Wang is able to get enough from her own first serve, but the overall expectation is that Amanda Anisimova is able to exert her strengths on the Fourth Round match and she can find the breaks of serve that she will need to get over this line.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Vctor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 29-17, + 12 Units (94 Units Staked, + 12.77% Yield)

Saturday, 25 January 2025

NFL Playoff Picks- Championship Games 2025 (Sunday 26th January)

We are down to the final three games of the 2024 NFL season and the Championship Games are going to set the Super Bowl match up for two weeks time.

It has been a fun season and you would say that at least one of the teams involved are a surprise name, but in the main we are set for two big games and the Super Bowl should be a lot of fun regardless of the match up that will be set.

The season is going to be one that finishes with a winning record, but a strong end is the target and then to get ready to go again in eight months time.

My only hope is that there is less refereeing controversy this week compared with the Divisional Round.


Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Having a rookie Quarter Back along with a first year Head Coach and then being blown out in Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suggested the Washington Commanders (14-5) would have to go through something of a transitional season in the tough NFC East.

Instead, Jayden Daniels has surpassed all expectations and Head Coach Dan Quinn has set a standard, which the Commanders players having been very willing to follow.

Getting into the Playoffs is a big achievement for Washington, but even the most optimistic of fans could not have expected the Commanders to win consecutive road games for the first time in the post-season. Upsets over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions, the Number 1 Seed, has given Washington an opportunity to play the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season when they won the Super Bowl.

A familiar opponent will be in front of the Commanders as they play the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) for the third time in the 2024 season.

The two teams split the regular season meetings, but the Eagles will feel pretty comfortable in the match up, even if Jayden Daniels is playing at a very high level.

Of course there has to be some confidence in the Washington ranks having beaten the Eagles in the most recent meeting, but that was also a game in which Philadelphia Quarter Back Jalen Hurts was out with a concussion very early on. And even then, it took a late drive from the Commanders to earn the victory, while the game here at Lincoln Financial Field was dominated by the home team.

The scoreboard might not say that, but Washington had a late score to keep that defeat respectable and they will be well aware of the challenge coming up as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts missed some time after the concussion suffered in December, but he took another heavy hit in the Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams last week. There was clearly some impact on his movement in the second half and Hurts is likely going to operate with a knee brace in the NFC Championship Game, although the reports during the week is that the Quarter Back is going to be in better shape than he ended the last game.

Even if Hurts is not as mobile as usual, the Philadelphia Offensive Line is going to be the dominant force in this game and they will feel they can rip open some big running lanes for Saquon Barkley. Last week the Running Back was key to the successes the Eagles had and he should have another big game when facing this Washington Defensive Line struggling to make consistent stops.

It should make life that much more comfortable for Jalen Hurts and the conditions should be easier in which to throw compared with the Divisional Round. The cold can make things tough for Receivers, but this Eagles team have plenty of talented playmakers that will likely be in one on one coverage at times if the Offensive Line pummels Washington up front.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders may feel they can run the ball with some success in this one too, although there has been a difficult injury on the Offensive Line that will hurt the underdog. The mobile Quarter Back helps, but Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler will be hoping that the Offensive Line will still be able to give them some opportunities against this tough Eagles Defensive Line.

Without a real running threat, the Eagles could really get after Jayden Daniels and it is very important for Washington to keep this one close on the scoreboard to avoid having to throw over and over again. If they are in third and long or obviously chasing points, Philadelphia's pass rush is going to have a big impact in this game, while the Eagles Secondary have been playing at a high standard all season.

Throwing against them will be tougher for Jayden Daniels than it was against an injury hit Lions team and the Philadelphia Eagles are deserving favourites.

They look like the team that will have the better Offensive balance and the Eagles can use home advantage to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.

Running the ball and controlling the clock can be backed up by a very good Defensive unit and it feels like time is going to hit midnight for Jayden Daniels and the upstart Washington Commanders in this NFC Championship Game.


Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In recent years, the Buffalo Bills (15-4) have gotten the better of the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in the regular season, but beating them when it really matters has been beyond their reach.

In 2024, the Bills have secured another regular season win over Kansas City, but the AFC Championship Game sees the two come together in the Playoff once again. Three of the last four Buffalo Playoff runs have been ended by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium after barely holding off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs did not have it much easier against the Houston Texans, but they have an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of the AFC Championship Game and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills had a much tougher Divisional Round win.

On one hand they will feel battle hardened, but the other is the physical toll a game against the powerful Ravens will have had on the players and the Buffalo Bills still have so much to prove as they look to make the Super Bowl for the first time since January 1994 when they were beaten for the fourth time in a row as the AFC representative.

Controversial decisions overshadowed Kansas City's win over Houston last week with some bogus flags being thrown to keep the Offensive unit on the field, but they will need more from Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs are going to win a third Super Bowl in a row. The zebras are hopefully not going to be over-involved in this AFC Championship Game after being criticised for some of the flags thrown last week, with conspiracy theorists offering their belief that the NFL would like to see the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if it means Taylor Swift will be attending.

Regardless of some of the poor calls, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are only concentrating on imposing themselves on this Championship Game. No one can take away from the talent and success Mahomes has had, especially as the Kansas City Chiefs have offered little support on the ground.

Andy Reid is very happy moving away from seeing run plays called and that has had to be the position for the Kansas City Chiefs with the Offensive Line struggling. They are not expected to have a lot more joy rushing the ball against this Buffalo Defensive Line and that will mean all of the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes to make plays with his arm and legs.

He is capable of doing that, but becoming one-dimensional may give the Buffalo Bills to make some big plays.

Patrick Mahomes does not have the consistent Receiving option that he would like, but Travis Kelce is playing in Playoff mode and the Quarter Back should be able to make some plays down the field. However, it has not been easy to throw against this Buffalo Secondary and the Bills should believe they can contain the home team for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.

For everything he has achieved in the NFL, Josh Allen knows that he will be judged by successes in the Playoff and he is going to be the key player for Buffalo. Last week Allen got the better of Lamar Jackson by playing a clean game and more of that will be needed against this Kansas City Defensive unit that deserves a lot of credit for the team building the record that they have.

It may be Josh Allen's legs that make the first impact on this game with the Kansas City Defensive Line just having one or two issues stopping the run in recent games. With James Cook behind him, Buffalo can use the RPO to just move into third and manageable positions on the field, which is key for a team that does not have a stand out Receiver, but have a number of players ready to make the big catch when needed.

Playing in front of the chains negates what has been a disruptive Kansas City pass rush with Josh Allen not having to hold onto the ball for too long and the Buffalo Bills may find a balance in their play-calling that gives them the edge.

In recent years we have seen Buffalo falter in the big moments and the Kansas City Chiefs are two time defending Super Bowl Champions so it is not easy to back against the Chiefs here.

However, the Buffalo Bills may have come through their most difficult challenge after winning the turnover battle against the powerful Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen may finally take this franchise back into the Super Bowl.

Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have found a way to win games when not being at their best all season, but they will need their best to beat Buffalo. The struggles to run the ball may just mean Buffalo can prepare a little more for what is to come from the home team and the Secondary have played well enough to stall drives.

With Josh Allen's dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, the Buffalo Bills may just come through as the narrow underdog in the AFC Championship Game.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)
Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)
Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.90 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2025- Men's Final (Sunday 26th January)

Madison Keys is a Grand Slam Champion.

If you had told me that a decade ago, it would not have caused much surprise, but it really had felt like the American had missed her best chances to win a Major.

Beating the top two players on the Tour in back to back matches makes the victory all the sweeter, and Madison Keys can go into the rest of the 2025 season filled with confidence.


On Sunday another player who has gotten close to winning a Major is trying to win a maiden title at this level when Alexander Zverev looks to get the better of Jannik Sinner.

It is a good looking Final and a tough one to call- the head to head suggests it will be very close, while there is one or two doubts about a hip injury that Sinner is carrying after his Semi Final win over Ben Shelton.

Any lingering issue would make Alexander Zverev a big price to win this match outright, but it would be a surprise if this one is not a battle and so my last selection from the 2025 Australian Open moves towards an angle which can be read below.


Jannik Sinner-Alexander Zverev over 39.5 games: Two injuries were the tale of the day when the Semi Final matches were played on Friday, but Jannik Sinner was able to overcome his hip issue to see off Ben Shelton in the Night Session.

All eyes will be on the World Number 1 and defending Champion as he looks to recover and prepare for the Australian Open Final when the 2025 tournament comes to a close on Sunday.

Alexander Zverev is the opponent after he was the beneficiary of a Novak Djokovic injury that forced the ten time former Champion to withdraw from the Semi Final at the end of the first set. The fans in attendance voiced their extreme disappointment with boos as Djokovic left the court, which was poor from those in the stands to say the least, and Alexander Zverev was quick to point that out.

It has felt that Zverev has perhaps missed his opportunity to win a Grand Slam in previous attempts, but this may be one more big chance for him to really spark his career. Take nothing away from the consistency that has taken the German into World Number 2, but Alexander Zverev could put a few Grand Slams in the trophy cabinet if he is able to win the first one.

No matter what, Alexander Zverev is going to enter this match in healthier shape than Jannik Sinner who is clearly carrying a couple of knocks. The hip issue could become a very tough one to overcome if Jannik Sinner is not able to recover over the forty-eight hours between Semi Final and Final and the head to head with Alexander Zverev suggests it would be a close match even if both were healthy as they could be ahead of this Final.

Both players have been producing at a very high level in this tournament and the serve has been a key shot for Sinner and Zverev.

With that in mind, it would be tough to serve with any kind of hip issue that is painful on landing and that may just give Alexander Zverev, the significant underdog, the edge.

The World Number 2 has the edge in terms of former matches with Alexander Zverev holding a 4-2 lead over Jannik Sinner on all surfaces and that becomes 3-1 when only focusing on hard court matches. Alexander Zverev has beaten Sinner twice at the US Open, including a five set win at the 2023 tournament, but it was the Italian who won their most recent meeting in Cincinnati in a match that was had three competitive sets played out.

It was a close match and it would not have taken much to swing things back in favour of Alexander Zverev, but it is an important mental step for Jannik Sinner to have taken to win that Semi Final in a big tournament.

He has been the superior server of the two in Melbourne over the last two weeks and Jannik Sinner has had the slight edge when it comes to the return.

This means he is rightly set as favourite, although the issue at the end of the Semi Final is one that will cause some doubt and Alexander Zverev may feel the longer he has the top Seed out on the court, the more the match pendulum will swing in his favour.

Assuming both are ready to go on Sunday evening in Melbourne, serving could be key and this could be another Australian Open Final that goes long.

Five of the last eight Men's Finals have needed all five sets to determine a winner and the last Grand Slam match between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner did the same at the US Open in 2023. It would not be a surprise if sets go deep and four might be all that is needed to ensure the total games line is passed.

MY PICK: Jannik Sinner-Alexander Zverev Over 39.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 27-13, + 17.40 Units (77 Units Staked, + 22.60% Yield)

Thursday, 25 January 2024

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2024 (Friday 26th January)

Three of the top four Ranked players on the ATP Tour have managed to come through all of the upsets and drama at the Australian Open to take their place in the Semi Final.

It would be a huge disappointment if the two men's Semi Finals are not filled with excitement for the fans and we are likely to see these matches a number of times across the biggest events in 2024. Winning the opening Grand Slam is the obvious big motivation for all four players, but it also stands that the Champion will have laid down a serious marker to the main rivals on the Tour.

The winner of the first Semi Final is expected to go into the Sunday showcase match as the big favourite.

However, the second Semi Final is filled with headlines made from off-court issues between the players and it should make for a very good day at Melbourne Park.


Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Jannik Sinner: There is a real hope that Jannik Sinner will be able to breakthrough and win a maiden Grand Slam title this season to join Carlos Alcaraz in bringing the future of tennis into the present. For fans of the sport, it would be good to begin to see a real changing of the guard, and Jannik Sinner can really prove himself if he can get the better of Novak Djokovic on Rod Laver Arena, a court the World Number 1 has dominated.

The win over Andrey Rublev was tougher than the final scoreboard will indicate and Jannik Sinner knows he will need to be better when playing in his first Australian Open Semi Final. He will have to lean on the previous experience of facing Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final back in July, while the Italian did manage to beat the World Number 1 twice on the hard courts at the back end of the 2023 season.

They split a win apiece in the ATP World Tour Finals, although it was Novak Djokovic who won the match for the trophy, and Jannik Sinner was then able to beat Djokovic in the Davis Cup Finals. These wins will give him plenty of confidence to take into this Semi Final, although Novak Djokovic may point out that he was the stronger player in all three matches and just finished on the wrong end of the tight matgins.

Novak Djokovic was able to contain the threat Taylor Fritz brought onto the court in the Quarter Final and rallied after dropping the second set to move through in four sets. His numbers were strong in the match, while playing in the heat also made it tough for Djokovic having largely been contained to the Night Session throughout the tournament.

He should be back in that slot for this Semi Final, while Novak Djokovic will benefit from having an additional day of rest between the Quarter Final and this match. Of course Jannik Sinner benefits from the same, but you have to believe this is better for the older player and Djokovic can bring his best onto the court.

Losses in the ATP World Tour Finals and Davis Cup Final would have hurt, but Novak Djokovic has long spoken about peaking for the Grand Slam events as he looks to surpass Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slam wins in her home country. We have seen him peaking in this tournament with the much improved numbers and performances in the last three matches having done just enough to win the first two at the Australian Open.

At the same time, Jannik Sinner's numbers have declined in each of his last three matches from a high reached in his Second Round win. That suggests the level of competition has increased and the Italian is perhaps not being allowed to dominate as he has earlier in the event and now he faces the ultimate challenge at the Australian Open.

He has yet to drop a set, and the serve has been very strong for the World Number 4.

Imposing that serve on Novak Djokovic will be a key to the outcome of this match and Jannik Sinner will be encouraged by the fact he held 86% of his service games played against this opponent in their three hard court matches played at the end of the 2023 season. However, it was Djokovic's performances on the Break Points that stands out in those matches and Jannik Sinner showed he can play under the pressure of having to same those big points in his win over Andrey Rublev too.

He will need to do that again in this one and it is hard to ignore the fact that Novak Djokovic won 73% of the points played behind serve compared with Jannik Sinner's 63% mark in those hard court matches.

On Rod Laver Arena, Novak Djokovic may feel a little more confident in playing those big points better than he did at the end of 2023 and the feeling is that the World Number 1 is getting stronger as the tournament winds down. At the same time Jannik Sinner may just be weakening a little bit and the feeling is that Novak Djokovic will be able to come through in three or four sets.


Alexander Zverev v Daniil Medvedev: It will feel like a case of what might have been for Alexander Zverev- he was giving Rafael Nadal all he could handle in the French Open Semi Final and was a couple of solid tournament runs away from becoming World Number 1 for the first time when injury cruelly struck in June 2022.

That injury cost him the rest of the season and it has taken plenty of hard work over the last twelve months to have Zverev feeling like he is back at a level he belongs.

For two and a half sets, Alexander Zverev showed all of his very best tennis as he dominated Carlos Alcaraz and moved to within a game of the Australian Open Semi Final. He was not quite able to maintain the standards and ended up dropping the third set, but the German rallied in the fourth and moved into his second ever Australian Open Semi Final.

The first ended in a four set loss to Dominic Thiem, who would go on and beat Zverev later in the year in the US Open Final too, but it really does feel like Alexander Zverev is finding his best tennis right now. This tournament is laying a strong foundation for the rest of the 2024 season, but Alexander Zverev will not want it to end just yet.

Anyone who has watched 'Break Point' on Netflix will know there is little love lost between Alexander Zverev and Semi Final opponent Daniil Medvedev as they prepare to meet on Friday.

That rivalry made for good watching for the viewers, but it has not been much of one on the court over the last few years and that is something that Alexander Zverev will be keen to change.

He won the first four professional matches between the players, but Daniil Medvedev was Ranked at Number 50 or higher in those matches, while Zverev was a top 10 Ranked player for the majority of those and expected to win. Since then, it is Medvedev who has become a fixture in the top 10 of the World Rankings and he has won eleven of fourteen matches between the pair.

That includes winning five of six matches played between the two last year and so Daniil Medvedev has to believe he has the tennis to earn yet another Australian Open Final spot.

It is certainly a head to head that will give Daniil Medvedev plenty of reason to think he can win this Semi Final and it is perhaps the main reason the World Number 3 has been set as the favourite in the match.

On the raw numbers, Daniil Medvedev has had a difficult Australian Open tournament and there is no doubting that there has been a lingering affect of having finished in the early hours of the morning when winning his Second Round match against Emil Ruusuvuori. He showed plenty of fatigue in the five set Quarter Final win over Hubert Hurkacz, but there is no doubting the fight and tenacity that Daniil Medvedev will bring onto the court for as long as he is out there.

Ultimately it is about the recovery and how well he is able to do that- not only did Medvedev have to play for over four hours in the Quarter Final, but he played in the hottest part of the day and the energy was clearly being sapped from him. The fact he rallied from dropping the fourth set to win a decider just underlines the quality and the mental strength Daniil Medvedev has and he will need all of that in this Semi Final.

The problem Daniil Medvedev has had in the tournament is that he is only holding 82% of service games played- that is considerably down on his 86% mark set over the 2023 calendar year, while the return is then placed under considerable pressure. In the Quarter Final, Medvedev had to deal with a lot more Break Points than he created and it is unsustainable to continue to replenish energy being lost physically and emotionally.

He played the big points well enough to edge past Hubert Hurkacz and it was the same against Emil Ruusuvuori, but it will have accumulated some fatigue.

Alexander Zverev has had anything but a clean run himself though and so the fatigue problem may not be as great for Daniil Medvedev as it would be if he was playing Novak Djokovic or Jannik Sinner instead. And while he is not returning as well as his rival, the performance in the Quarter Final behind serve will have really encouraged Zverev and his supporters that he can turn the tables on the World Number 3.

And despite the head to head in 2023, it should be noted that the four hard court matches were closely contested with Daniil Medvedev edging the big points. Those were all across best of three set formats too and the feeling is that the Russian is perhaps running close to empty and Alexander Zverev will have the fitness edge if this goes long.

Reaching a second Grand Slam Final will add to the pressure on Zverev, but his performance in the Quarter Final compared with Daniil Medvedev's suggests it is the German getting stronger the Australian Open winds down.

This has the makings of being a really good Semi Final after the efforts both have put into the tournament, but Alexander Zverev's serve has been working well enough in Melbourne to believe he will be lining up in the Men's Final on Sunday.

Backing against Daniil Medvedev is not easy considering his hard court abilities and the motivation he will have in wanting to keep Alexander Zverev under the cosh, but you cannot ignore the obvious fatigue build up we have seen. As long as Zverev can contain his emotions against this rival, he may have enough to come through after another long match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 22-47, - 55.54 Units (138 Units Staked, - 40.25% Yield)

Thursday, 26 January 2023

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2023 (January 26th)

We are down to the final four of both the men's and women's Singles event at the Australian Open and there is every chance we are going to get two quality Finals from here.

Novak Djokovic is the clear favourite to win the men's event, but Stefanos Tsitsipas is a looming threat and I think those two would produce an ideal end to the first Grand Slam of the 2023 season.


The women's event looks much more open- in one Semi Final we have two former major winners squaring off, but the other has a surprising player making their first Grand Slam Semi Final appearance against one who has long been considered a Champion in the making that has come up short.

Elena Rybakina winning is perhaps the best outcome for fans on the WTA Tour- there are simply not many multiple time Slam Champions still playing regularly and Rybakina winning two of the last three Grand Slams may come through to be the rival that Iga Swiatek needs. A win over Swiatek in this tournament and then going on to win it would only build a rivalry that is desperately needed on the WTA side of the Tour and I think Elena Rybakina has all of the tools to be a future World Number 1 and to add many a Slam to the Wimbledon trophy she took home last July.

However, in saying that, I do think someone like Aryna Sabalenka could go strength to strength when she is able to get over the hump and win her first Grand Slam title. Her overall record at this level is actually pretty poor and so it does feel the time may be running out for Sabalenka to do that and push her career forward from there.


Day 10 proved to be another mixed bag for the Tennis Picks, but it could have been a lot worse after the disappointing results through the Quarter Final Round.

With just six matches left at the Australian Open this year, I would be extremely disappointed to go 2-4 or worse and dent the numbers produced from the tournament so far. In reality I am always aiming for six out of six winners to end the first Slam of the year and build some confidence to take into a very long season.


Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: It might say 22 next to her name in terms of the Seeding at the Australian Open, but Elena Rybakina is the current Wimbledon Champion and would have entered 2023 as a comfortable top ten Ranked player if that tournament had not had its Ranking points removed by the Tours.

That came in light of the decision to ban players from Belarusian and Russian nationalities from competing in the tournament and so this is a Semi Final that could not have taken place at Wimbledon last July. Victoria Azarenka was not able to compete there, but has found some of her old form in Melbourne where she is a two time former Champion having upset Jessica Pegula in the Quarter Final.

It is a win that has to give Victoria Azarenka a lot of confidence and the women's tournament looks wide open for each of the four players remaining. This is the Semi Final featuring the only two remaining players with at least one Grand Slam title in the bag and so the winner between Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina may enter the Final as the favourite with the experience edge alone.

Neither of these players had much momentum behind them from the warm up tournaments, but they do have a Champion mentality which has proved to be crucial for them in Melbourne. Elena Rybakina has beaten the World Number 1 in very fine fashion, and both Rybakina and Victoria Azarenka have two wins over players currently Ranked inside the top 13.

I cannot easily dismiss Victoria Azarenka's chances after the strong win over Jessica Pegula, but that was also a victory over a World Number 3 that has never reached the Semi Final of any Grand Slam. Stats like that underline why there is a perceived weakness at the top of the women's game, but you still have to beat the player in front of you and Victoria Azarenka did that in fine enough form to be respected, even at this stage of her career.

However, I do think Elena Rybakina is the rightful favourite as someone who continues to showcase her development into one of the premier WTA players around. Winning a second Grand Slam in seven months would certainly mean the Kazakhstan player will enter a lot of tournaments right amongst the favourites to win and Rybakina may also be ready to build a rivalry with Iga Swiatek for the top position on the Tour.

Like a few players before her, Elena Rybakina possesses a dominant serve- you can't put it up there with Serena Williams' serve right now, but it is a weapon that has proven to be essential to her game. If she serves as well as she can, there isn't a player on the Tour that can beat Elena Rybakina, but the key for her will be to find the consistency to produce week after week.

The serve has been a massive threat for Elena Rybakina throughout this tournament and it can be the key to breaking this Semi Final open. In her sole previous meeting with Victoria Azarenka in Indian Wells last March, Elena Rybakina only offered up a single Break Point in a straight sets win and she won 77% of her service points played on the day.

Victoria Azarenka's first serve can help her get in front of a rally, but she does not have the most effective second serve and she will not earn as many cheap points as Elena Rybakina is expected to in this Semi Final.

The return edge is with Azarenka, but I am not sure she will be given the time to really try and impose that on this match and I do give Elena Rybakina an edge in earning a place in the Saturday Final.

Elena Rybakina could become a truly exceptional player if she can find a stronger return game, but it has been plenty strong this week in Melbourne and I think she beats the veteran in a fun, but ultimately in a largely dominant display.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Magda Linette: Both of these players won in straight sets on Day 10 at the Australian Open, but Aryna Sabalenka was a clear favourite in her Quarter Final. That makes her win no less impressive, although the headlines will have been written by Magda Linette who continues making surprising progress at Melbourne Park.

If someone had told you that a women's Polish player will make the Semi Final at the Australian Open two weeks ago, you would have had a lot of money on that being Iga Swiatek. Instead of the World Number 1, Magda Linette has made a number of firsts in her career at the tournament- it has been the first time she has reached the second week of a Grand Slam, the first Quarter Final at a Slam and now a first Semi Final at a Slam.

She will not want the run to end and even the poor head to head with Aryna Sabalenka is not likely to upset Magda Linette considering she beat Karolina Pliskova on Wednesday having lost seven of the previous nine against the Czech player. A lot of those losses had been in one-sided fashion too so the fact the four sets played against Aryna Sabalenka have ended 6-1 (twice), 6-2 and 6-3 may not be as big a factor as you would expect.

Ultimately the pressure is on Aryna Sabalenka who has long been considered a Grand Slam Champion in the making and found a way to falter when the winning line has approached. Despite the obvious qualities, Sabalenka has yet to make the Final of any Grand Slam and has lost all four Semi Final matches played at this level, a fact that will not have been lost on her.

Like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka has surprisingly not made it to the Quarter Final at the Australian Open before and she has led in two of her previous three Semi Final matches at Grand Slams before losing. Having come close to reaching a Final, I expect some nerves to be at play compared with Magda Linette who may feel she has nothing to lose having completely moved past her expectations here.

The lower Ranked player is going to have to serve well and see whether she can build some pressure on her opponent in this Semi Final. So far, Magda Linette has been able to look after her second serve and that has led to dropping serve just ten times in her five wins at the Australian Open so far, while then allowing her to take a few more risks on the return.

Serving well has to be the key against an aggressive Aryna Sabalenka who looks to attack that shot constantly.

Aryna Sabalenka has been dominating on the return throughout this month and has pushed her numbers to winning 50% of return points played in the tournament. That is an incredible level and maintaining that for seven matches will never be easy, but Sabalenka is playing with a real confidence and has not really been pushed in any of her matches in the draw.

She has not played the same level of opponents as Magda Linette, but Aryna Sabalenka also won a tournament ahead of the Australian Open and there is no doubting her level right now. The serve was something of a hindrance at times last year, but Sabalenka looks to have gotten control of the second delivery and that has rebuilt the confidence in that shot and has led to losing serve just five times in five matches.

Donna Vekic had her chances in the Quarter Final, but I expect Aryna Sabalenka to largely contain the threat in this Semi Final as she did in her last match. The power and aggression should favour the World Number 5 and I think Aryna Sabalenka will make her way into a maiden Slam Final with a strong victory in the second Semi Final to be played on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 39-30, + 7.04 Units (134 Units Staked, + 5.25% Yield)

Tuesday, 25 January 2022

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2022 (January 26th)

If you had told me that Rafael Nadal and Matteo Berrettini had both moved into 2-0 leads in their Quarter Final matches on Day 9 at the Australian Open, I would have been expecting at least one winning Pick.

Quite unbelievably, both players saw their opponents scramble back to 2-2, but then managed to battle against the momentum that built against them in a 3-2 win.

It is annoying to say the least, especially as it would have resulted in the tournament totals moving back in a very positive direction. Thankfully both Madison Keys and Ashleigh Barty came through to avoid a loss on the day, but it does feel like a missed opportunity.

Hopefully the remaining Quarter Final matches are much more positive in terms of the returns, although as a fan it is good to see the Australian Open have some drama in the matches that are being played.


Danielle Collins - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: The top half of the draw has a favourite who has steamrolled her way past every opponent that she has faced, but the bottom half of the Women's event at the Australian Open has arguably four surprise names involved.

The most surprising Quarter Final clash may be the one involving Danielle Collins and Alize Cornet and both players have to be aware of the size of the opportunity in front of them. In a long career, the veteran Alize Cornet has already broken new ground by reaching the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the first time, while Danielle Collins is a former Australian Open Semi Finalist and has also reached the Quarter Final at the French Open previously.

You do have to think that plays some part in the match, but Danielle Collins is not going to be the most intimidating opponent that Alize Cornet has played in the tournament having beaten two previous Slam Champions in her four matches here. The win over Garbine Muguruza was very comfortable, but Alize Cornet had to dig deep to beat Simona Halep in the Fourth Round and that after a very intense Third Round win.

Fatigue has to be accumulating for Alize Cornet and she is being asked to play at a difficult time, but the battle and fight the Frenchwoman has shown has to be commended. Her numbers in the Australian Open are considerably better than her usual hard court level and I think the chance of reaching a Slam Semi Final has to keep her highly motivated with those opportunities likely to be limited for the 32 year old Cornet.

However, she did look really tired at times in the last Round and, although known as someone who can be a little 'dramatic' on the court, I do think there has to be some accumulation building up. That is both from an emotional and physical point of view and I think Danielle Collins is playing the steadier tennis all around, even though she has had to come from a set down in back to back wins.

Those have been in matches that the American has looked really good and she has created a lot more break points than she has been giving up. Danielle Collins has been serving really well throughout the tournament and that can make the difference for her in this match, although she will have to contain emotions that can sometimes rear up.

This is a very big mark and Alize Cornet is not someone who will go away easily, but I think if Danielle Collins can get in front there will be some pressure on the underdog that can wear her down a bit quicker. Alize Cornet has yet to be behind in the tournament and it will be a tough situation to deal with in her current condition.

Danielle Collins looks to have the edge in the serving department and I think that will see her do enough to not only move through to the Semi Final, but to do so in some style.


Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: Earlier in her career, Kaia Kanepi reached a number of Grand Slam Quarter Finals, but injuries racked up and she missed two years on the Tour. The Estonian returned with a Quarter Final run at the US Open in 2017, but she has made just two Fourth Rounds since then.

Everything has changed at the Australian Open as Kaia Kanepi has made her maiden Australian Open Quarter Final after a gruelling win over Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round. Kaia Kanepi even begun to celebrate too early in the Super Tie Break win over the Number 2 Seed, but she has shown the battling qualities which have allowed her to come back from a set down in each of her last two matches.

The run has perhaps been more surprising at this stage of the Kanepi career when you look at the hard court numbers over the last two seasons and I think that is going to make this a really tough Quarter Final for her to deal with. However, Kaia Kanepi is going to feel like she is a dangerous player in this match as long as she continues to serve as she has done at Melbourne Park in her run to this Quarter Final.

Once again Kaia Kanepi is going to be an underdog when she faces Iga Swiatek who is one of just two former Grand Slam Champions that are still looking to add to the titles they have won. While we have seen a decline in some of the hard court numbers that Kanepi has produced, Iga Swiatek is a progressing player on the hard courts and that is underlined by the fact she has made her first Grand Slam Quarter Final on this surface.

Iga Swiatek has been pushed in the last two Rounds and she was quite emotional after coming from a set down to beat Sorana Cirstea in the Fourth Round, but the former French Open Champion should be able to handle the occasion. Only Ashleigh Barty has proven to be too good for Iga Swiatek in the Australian summer in January and she has also been a player that has found plenty out of the serve to stay on top of opponents.

First serves are going to be absolutely massive for both of these players, but it is Iga Swiatek who has been the slightly better return player. It is where the difference can be made between them on the day and I think the hard court numbers over the last couple of years suggests the Pole can find a level that Kaia Kanepi may struggle to match.

The Women's tournament has been fun at the Australian Open because matches have been competitive, but I do think this Quarter Final can move towards the favourite who can then eventually begin to roll past her opponent. Kaia Kanepi will be confident and feel like she has nothing to lose, but Iga Swiatek is in fine form and I think she will do enough to win and eventually enough to cover.


Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Three years ago, a surprising run to the Australian Open Semi Final announced Stefanos Tsitsipas to the wider tennis audience and he reached the same Round last year before losing to Daniil Medvedev. The first half of the season has tended to be a more productive time for the Greek player who has played in three Semi Finals and one Final at the Australian Open and French Open combined.

Those two Slams have been his stronger ones and Stefanos Tsitsipas has not been beyond the Fourth Round at either Wimbledon or the US Open and his run to the Quarter Final here makes him dangerous. However, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled through this tournament and he has yet to really reached the kind of level that would be expected of him.

He has been an improving player on the hard courts thanks to a better ability to get into return games, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has had some doubts about his fitness prior to the tournament beginning. It certainly may be playing a part in the long matches that Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to deal with at Melbourne Park already, and the big question has to be how much is left in the tank for one of the contenders.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is also going to have to deal with an up and coming threat on the ATP Tour and Jannik Sinner has already moved into the top ten of the World Rankings. In just his third ever Grand Slam event, the Italian reached the Quarter Final at the French Open, but a much improved player will be taking the court this time.

One poor set aside, Jannik Sinner has been in control of his tennis and he has been serving really well at Melbourne Park, while that has only opened things up for his aggressive return to takeover matches. It was a bit more of a challenge against home opponent Alex De Minaur in the Fourth Round, but Jannik Sinner played the big points well and his hard court numbers this month have been very impressive.

I also have to give Jannik Sinner the edge when it comes to the fitness in this Quarter Final and I think that will help him against an opponent who has the winning record in their three previous matches. All of those came on the clay courts, which is a surface on which Stefanos Tsitsipas plays his best tennis, but I do think the Italian is going to prove to be a real threat on the hard courts if he is not already.

If Stefanos Tsitsipas had not been struggling with some physical issues and not been pushed as hard as he has in this tournament, I think this would be a really close match. However, it feels like a huge opportunity for Jannik Sinner to make his way into a maiden Grand Slam and I think he can produce a very good win as long as the Italian can stay on top of his emotions.


Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Frustrations were high on the Daniil Medvedev side of the court in his four set Fourth Round win over Maxime Cressy and plenty of that was down to the opponent. The American is an 'old school' player who looks to play serve-volley all day long and it was clear that Daniil Medvedev was having issues trying to work out the best way to deal with a player that is not being replicated by too many others around the Tour.

While he was irritated by the tennis he was facing, Daniil Medvedev may also have been externalising the frustration of not being scheduled to be played on Rod Laver Arena. As the top Seed in the Men's draw and the last Grand Slam Champion, you can understand that Daniil Medvedev will feel he is one of the big draws at all events and particularly on a day when none of the 'Big Three' are involved.

He will get his wish the rest of the way at the Australian Open and Daniil Medvedev has been placed in the evening session, which is the primetime spot for many players at Melbourne Park. That should at least make the World Number 2 happier as he takes a step closer to winning a second Grand Slam title and also move into position as the World Number 1.

A huge serve is backed up by a very efficient return and that makes Daniil Medvedev very dangerous on the hard courts as he looks to reach a third straight Final on this surface in the Grand Slams. Daniil Medvedev has broken at least three times in every match he has played so far at the Australian Open and he has created at least eleven break points in each of the last three matches here, numbers that are going to give the Russian plenty of confidence.

He will also earn confidence when playing Felix Auger-Aliassime and it has been a good match up for Daniil Medvedev. This is the third time they have met on a hard court since September and Daniil Medvedev has won the last two in dominant fashion, which underlines why he is such a big favourite here.

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov are leading Canadian tennis into a new era and the two combined to help their nation win the ATP Cup before the Australian Open began. He has reached the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time in his career thanks to the performances at the ATP Cup, but Felix Auger-Aliassime knows the challenge in front of him.

After reaching the Quarter Final at Wimbledon and then the Semi Final at the US Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime is hoping that he continues to progressing to reach a maiden Grand Slam Final. However, the young Canadian was beaten pretty comfortably in those two previous Grand Slam matches when reaching the latter stages and there is still a real question mark about the return and whether that is good enough to beat the best.

Even in the run here at the Australian Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime has only managed to break in 18% of return games and it is a mark that is not going to get things done against the top players he will have to beat to reach the Final.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has a 3-15 record against top ten Ranked opponents on the hard courts and his marks of 72% of games being held and 14% of return games leading to a break of serve is not up the level he needs. In the two matches against Daniil Medvedev over the last five months, Felix Auger-Aliassime has only held serve in 60% of service games played compared with his opponent's mark of 95% and that is a gap that looks very difficult to bridge.

Daniil Medvedev has broken Felix Auger-Aliassime nine times in five sets played against him and his current form suggests the Russian is going to be able to pull away and cover a big number in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 36-28, + 5.78 Units (128 Units Staked, + 4.52% Yield)

Tuesday, 26 January 2021

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (January 26-28)

That honestly felt like one of the longest GameWeeks we have seen in Fantasy Football as it covered over a week of matches, but it has turned out to be a decent one and without having to use any of the Chips we have over the second half of the season.

The games keep coming in this congested season and the next four GameWeeks are going to be played over a two week period which means you have to be aware of rotations so having a deep bench is going to be imperative. More on this below, but first my thoughts about the ten Premier League games to be played between Tuesday and Thursday.


Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: In recent years the West Ham United fans have been far from convinced about the direction the club were moving in, but they will feel much happier with what they are seeing at the moment.

David Moyes is really getting the best from the squad and 5 wins in a row in 2021 is giving the team confidence as they progress up the Premier League standings and also in the FA Cup. The manager was able to rest some key players in the 4-0 Cup win over Doncaster Rovers this past weekend, but that took nothing away from what looks a stronger squad than the one he had last season.

There is still a hope that another striker can be brought into the London Stadium to ease the burden on Michail Antonio, but for now West Ham United will make the relatively short trip to Selhurst Park with plenty of belief behind them.

Defensively they have been very good and that has resulted in a single goal conceded in their last 5 games in all competitions. The numbers back up those successes and I think West Ham United can make life difficult for Crystal Palace.

However, Roy Hodgson has had a number of days to prepare for this fixture after his team were beaten in the FA Cup Third Round at Wolves earlier in the month. It should mean Wilfred Zaha is available having missed the 4-0 defeat at Manchester City, although Crystal Palace continue to be inconsistent in the final third.

They have not scored in their last 3 games in all competitions, but all of those fixtures came away from Selhurst Park. At home Crystal Palace have largely managed to find the net and that makes them dangerous even against the strong system West Ham United have been playing in.

Games between these teams have usually produced goals for both, and they did draw 1-1 at the London Stadium around six weeks ago. However it was not a game blessed with a lot of chances and I think the recent performances of the two teams suggest one of these sides will fail to find the net.

Crystal Palace are perhaps being under-rated as the home underdog, but my bigger feeling is that one of these teams will fail to find the net with two organised managers in charge. The last 7 between Crystal Palace and West Ham United have seen both teams score, but I am looking for that run to end here.


Newcastle United v Leeds United Pick: The next two weeks could be absolutely huge for Newcastle United and especially manager Steve Bruce with 3 of the next 4 Premier League games being played at St James' Park. The feeling is that Mike Ashley doesn't really want to have to sack Bruce, but Newcastle United have to arrest the slide towards the relegation zone and the fixture list is one from which they should be earning positive results.

First up is Leeds United who have lost their last 3 games in all competitions without scoring a goal, although Marcelo Bielsa has had a number of days to prepare his team for this fixture. That is an important development for Leeds United who have perhaps not played as poorly as the results suggest, while also giving the players the chance to just reset after the defeats.

This is a team that will continue to play the same way and that means Leeds United will be getting forward and looking to attack a vulnerable Newcastle United team. The Magpies have looked a mess at the back which has given teams some big chances to score goals against them, while they have been struggling for goals themselves that only increases the overall pressure on the team.

Steve Bruce is trying to find the right formula to change the feelings around the club, but Newcastle United do look vulnerable to a team like Leeds United.

The visitors have lost 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games, but those have come at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and the new White Hart Lane. This is a much more winnable game for Leeds United who have visited 3 clubs that are currently below them in the Premier League table and have won 2 of those.

Leeds United should have the goals to take this game away from Newcastle United and I think they can win here. I expect Newcastle United to have better successes going forward, if only because of the Leeds United style, but the visitors should be well prepared and I think Marcelo Bielsa will have his team ready to win here.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Anyone who watched the FA Cup Fourth Round tie between Southampton and Arsenal on Saturday will be expecting another tight and competitive game between the two teams.

Ralph Hasenhuttl went with a stronger looking team than Mikel Arteta and the Austrian was rewarded with a 1-0 win for Southampton.

That result means Southampton have kept 4 clean sheets in a row at St Mary's, although they are going to be missing what most would consider to be three of the first choice back four in this fixture. It will put pressure on the home team who have defended well and then punished teams with the quality that James Ward-Prowse, Stuart Armstrong, Danny Ings and Che Adams have been able to produce in the final third.

Southampton have not been creating a lot of chances though and those players have made the best of what they have been given. It is hard to sustain that over a length of time and now they face an Arsenal team who had kept 5 clean sheets in a row before the 1-0 defeat here over the weekend.

Mikel Arteta's team have looked to be playing with more confidence of late, but Arsenal are still not creating as many chances as the manager would like. That has made those clean sheets very valuable and Arsenal have managed to do that in their last 2 away games at West Brom and Brighton.

I am expecting another tight game between these teams who have shared out three goals across 180 minutes against one another in the last six weeks. Both teams will want to get forward, but they could be faced with tough defences that are playing with some confidence and limiting the amount of chances opponents have been able to create against them.

4 of the last 5 games between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and I would not be surprised to see that being the case again on Tuesday. The injuries and suspensions in the Southampton backline have to be a concern, but the system should keep the home team strong and hard to break down, while Arsenal have been focusing on their defensive performances to the detriment of their attacking output of late.

One of the teams failing to score would not be a big surprise and I am expecting a low-scoring fixture to be played out.


West Brom v Manchester City Pick: With 19 Premier League games to play and with a 6 point gap to Brighton outside of the bottom three you do have to believe that every point will matter to West Brom if they are going to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

The Baggies have appointed Sam Allardyce to aid them in their bid to avoid relegation and ten days ago West Brom won for the first time under the former England manager.

They have had time to prepare for this fixture having lost in the FA Cup Third Round, but Allardyce is a pragmatic manager and he will know which games West Brom need to target if they are going escape their current plight. He has made it clear that anything from this fixture would be a bonus, but West Brom face Fulham and Sheffield United over the next week and there is no doubt that The Baggies will be looking for results in those games.

It could mean Sam Allardyce is perhaps looking at this fixture as little more than a distraction in preparing for those games against fellow clubs inside the bottom three. Ultimately the manager has indicated that a win in this one will mean nothing if West Brom were not able to beat fellow relegation candidates and I think that could influence team selection.

Manchester City may be more vulnerable to an upset without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and last month West Brom rode their luck at times to earn a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium. That will be encouraging, but West Brom didn't create a lot and I expect a defensive performance from the hosts which should help Manchester City move into a position to earn another clean sheet.

It should be noted that Manchester City are perhaps more vulnerable away from home having only kept a single clean sheet in their last 4 games on on their travels in all competitions. However two of those were Cup ties with changes made and Chelsea scored very late on having trailed 0-3 in the other game in that time.

West Brom have not scored in their last 3 home games and offered little threat against Aston Villa, Leeds United and Arsenal. I think they may not want to run their key players into the ground before the big games coming up and I think it will result in a comfortable Manchester City win on the day.

Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero are big absences, but Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva have been rested and Phil Foden is in fine form for the visitors. I expect they will have enough quality at both ends to earn the three points and likely with yet another clean sheet for the John Stones-Ruben Dias centre defence partnership to enjoy.


Burnley v Aston Villa Pick: This has the makings of an intriguing Premier League fixture and one that both Sean Dyche and Dean Smith will be confident that their team can produce the three points.

Burnley and Aston Villa have both been in positive form and I do think there is enough to like about the way the teams have been approaching fixtures to believe this could be a better game than some would think.

Aston Villa have been creating chances, but this is a team who have not defended as well as their overall numbers would suggest. It has especially been evident in recent away games, although Aston Villa will point out that those fixtures have come against some of the better teams in the Premier League.

Now while Burnley are not on the same level as Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs, they have been playing well enough in recent weeks to believe in themselves. Even in the 0-1 defeat to Manchester United, Burnley did create chances although they have been struggling to contain teams at the back too.

When these teams met last month it ended goalless, but Aston Villa created a host of very good chances in that fixture and I do think they will do the same here.

However I think Burnley are playing pretty well at home and they should be able to have some opportunities of their own. Both games in the Premier League between these clubs finished with at least three goals last season and I do believe an early goal could open this fixture up with both teams perhaps offering up more good scoring chances than their managers would really like.

Burnley home games have been low-scoring throughout the season, but Aston Villa can help open things up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Chelsea v Wolves Pick: There was some surprise in the English media that Frank Lampard was sacked as manager of Chelsea, but this is a club that tolerates very little underachievement.

The reality is that Chelsea have spent a lot of money in the summer and they would have expected to be much closer to the top. Instead Chelsea have been left in 9th place and they are 5 points behind the top four in a season where the top of the Division has been wide open.

For whatever reason, you can't deny that Chelsea have been in miserable form for almost two months having looked like a genuine title contender. I am not sure if the players knew there were some who were uncertain about Lampard and decided to down tools, or whether confidence has just been shot to bits, but Chelsea have not been getting the results they would have wanted.

Thomas Tuchel is the latest man expected to take over at Stamford Bridge and he will know all the about the pressure that comes at clubs like this. He had been under that pressure in his last job at Paris Saint-Germain, but the German will be tasked to turn the form around and at least help Chelsea get back into the Champions League.

He won't be in charge on Wednesday, but Tuchel may pick the team and Chelsea have been playing better than some of the results have suggested. The Blues have creative players and they should be able to do that against Wolves who have been in miserable form themselves and don't look the same without Raul Jimenez leading the line.

Wolves did come from behind to beat Chelsea at Molineux last month, but they had lost 3 away Premier League games in a row before the 3-3 draw at Brighton. The chances that teams have been creating against Wolves is a real worry for Nuno Espirito Santo and I think we will see a big reaction from the Chelsea players on Wednesday afternoon.

There may be a sense of freedom or maybe they had lost faith in Frank Lampard and will be looking to show a new manager what they are capable of. Chelsea have been creating enough chances and playing well enough at Stamford Bridge to get the better of Wolves and I think they will be able to break down an out of form team in the victory.

The Blues were unfortunate to lose to Wolves when they met earlier this season, but I think they earn a measure of revenge here and begin the move back up the League table.


Brighton v Fulham Pick: Over the next two weeks there are some very big games between those clubs at the bottom of the Premier League table.

The teams in and around the bottom four are meeting one another regularly in that time and by the end of those two weeks we should have a good idea as to which of the clubs are able to avoid relegation.

Brighton have to find a way to win at the Amex Stadium having failed to do so in over six months in the Premier League, but they have won back to back games and that will be encouraging for Graham Potter. A win on Wednesday will really open the gap between Brighton and the bottom three and the side have played better than their overall results would suggest.

There will be a confidence in the home squad, but Fulham have to find a way to match that having lost 3 games in a row in all competitions. All 3 losses have come at home and Fulham were dumped out of the FA Cup on Sunday, but Scott Parker knows his team have an opportunity in front of them.

In the next few days Fulham visit Brighton and West Brom, the teams currently sandwiching them in 18th place, and wins in both would really inspire the players. However there is always the other side of the coin which says defeats in both games would leave Fulham struggling to find the belief to avoid the drop and so this is a very important week for the entire club.

Avoiding defeat would likely be acceptable in one game as long as Fulham can win the other game, but this is a team who have been struggling to find the balance at both ends of the field. While they have looked a bit better defensively, Fulham have not been creating a lot of chances and we may see a similar game as to when these clubs met at Craven Cottage which finished goalless.

Chances didn't come easy that day, although Brighton may feel a touch more fortunate to have come away with the draw. This time I expect Brighton to have the better of the play, but these are two teams who won't want to give a lot away and I think we will see a tight and competitive game produced.

It may result in one of the teams failing to find the net as they look to prevent giving too much encouragement to the other and this may be a relatively low-scoring fixture.


Everton v Leicester City Pick: Both Carlo Ancelotti and Brendan Rodgers have to be very satisfied with what they have seen from their Everton and Leicester City teams respectively as we approach the end of January.

Both clubs are still in the FA Cup and both are dreaming of a return to the Champions League which only increases the importance of this fixture.

While Everton have been a little inconsistent at home in recent weeks, Leicester City have won 5 in a row overall and 5 of their last 6 away games which will give them confidence. Even the absence of Jamie Vardy until next month has not been a major concern for Leicester City who feel there is a real depth at the club that makes them dangerous.

Last season's experiences should help Leicester City who have quality in the final third that will make life very difficult for Everton. I expect The Foxes to create chances here, although the last time Leicester City were beaten came in a fixture against Everton.

That win for Everton at the King Power Stadium last month was deserved and the first team look as healthy as they have since the beginning of the season. At that stage Carlo Ancelotti was getting plenty out of his players and I think they are going to be dangerous too in what looks to be a decent fixture on paper.

Goals have tended to flow when these teams have faced one another and I do think both Everton and Leicester City are playing well when looking to attack. At the same time there are one or two vulnerabilities in defensive areas which can be exposed by the other and 11 of the last 12 between these clubs at Goodison Park have ended with at least three goals shared out.

On current form I would think a 2-1 victory either way can't be ruled out and I do think this will be a fixture in which goals will be the outcome.


Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: At the start of this latest round of Premier League fixtures this is one featuring top versus bottom, although Manchester United will likely be kicking off in 2nd place assuming Manchester City beat West Brom at The Hawthorns.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer won't be worrying about League position at kick off, but will be expecting Manchester United to focus on the task in hand which is making sure they don't drop any silly points. It has been the foundation of success for Manchester United who have won all of their League games played against the current bottom seven in the League standings.

Manchester United's win over Liverpool in the FA Cup Fourth Round will only add to the confidence of the players and this is a game they should win. They have won 5 of their last 6 at Old Trafford in all competitions and there has been an improvement in the performances both going forward and defensively.

It is certainly expected to be good enough to beat a Sheffield United team who have looked out of their depth in the Premier League this season. They haven't been as bad as only managing 5 points, but Sheffield United have once again struggled for goals and defensively they have certainly taken a step back from last season.

Teams have been able to not only get after Sheffield United, but Aaron Ramsdale has struggled to replicate the success Dean Henderson had which has left Chris Wilder's team in a vulnerable spot.

Sheffield United have looked a little stronger at home, but they have not created a lot in their most recent away games. The Blades have only scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games and that lack of a cutting edge is likely going to be costly for them here.

It does have to be said that Manchester United have not really dealt in clean sheets as much as they would have liked, but they have produced 4 in their 9 home League games this season. Manchester United beat Sheffield United 3-0 at Old Trafford last season too and I think they are likely going to win this game fairly comfortably on the day and with a clean sheet to boot.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The final game of this round of Premier League fixtures looks a very important one, especially when it comes to a potential title challenge for either Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool.

Both managers will likely expect the two Manchester clubs to win their Premier League fixtures that are played on Tuesday and Wednesday and that will open up a considerable gap to these two teams.

With that in mind I would expect Jose Mourinho and Jurgen Klopp to understand the importance of the three points which will keep them in touch with those leading teams. Anything less than the win on Thursday will put pressure on Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool and that goes as far as the pressure building on a top four chase.

When they met at Anfield last month Liverpool scored a late goal to win the game, but Tottenham Hotspur really will feel they deserved a lot more than they got. Now the onus is on Tottenham Hotspur playing in their own Stadium, although I expect Jose Mourinho will be looking for the counter attack to expose a Liverpool team that have been struggling.

They may have lost at Old Trafford, but at least there were some signs that Liverpool's attacking football was rediscovering the lost rhythm of recent weeks. Liverpool have still not scored in 4 Premier League games, although they have created some chances and it is unlikely that the front three will continue to misfire.

The goal scored at Manchester United might turn things around, but Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can pick up where the current Premier League leaders left off and that is using their speed and counter attacking to hurt the Champions. Playing on Monday evening in the FA Cup Fourth Round was not ideal, but Tottenham Hotspur have played well in recent games and they are a difficult team to see off.

As the home underdog I do think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing and especially when you look at how Liverpool have played away from home all season. The feeling is that Liverpool are a little more predictable with their attacking play and Tottenham Hotspur should be well prepared to deal with what is in front of them.

Spurs have played well enough to believe they can expose the defensive vulnerabilities of their visitors, and I think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing to avoid defeat.

In recent seasons Liverpool have had the edge when these teams have faced each other, but they have been fortunate to win their last 2 games against Spurs. In those games Tottenham Hotspur have played well and deserved more than they got, and they have created enough chances in recent fixtures to believe they can perhaps edge out Liverpool.

The neutrals should enjoy this fixture and I think it will be a close game, but Liverpool look short considering their recent form and overall away record. It may not ebb and flow as much as the Cup tie at Old Trafford on Sunday, but Jose Mourinho should be able to employ the counter attacking approach he favours and that may be good enough to pick up a positive result.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-West Ham United Both Teams to Score- NO
Leeds United
Southampton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester City Win to Nil
Burnley-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals
Brighton-Fulham Both Teams to Score- NO
Everton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester United Win to Nil
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 20
Any time you pick up close to 100 points in a single GameWeek without using any chips has to be considered a very good return, but I still feel a little disappointed.

Kevin De Bruyne's injury one minute before the 60th minute mark meant I got a very low return from the Captain choice in the DGW, while I have to ask the entire midfield what fascination they had with picking up bookings.

Example? Hakim Ziyech has had one booking all season, but somehow managed to pick up a yellow card in both games played and earned just 2 points from his DGW, a terrible signing for that week.

Marcus Rashford had two games and earned 3 points, Tomas Soucek had two games and earned 4 points so those three midfielders really let me down. So with that in mind to pick up 93 positive points (with the four point hit included) is a better return than I may have imagined if you had given me those totals before a ball had been kicked.


It was not an ideal week with De Bruyne picking up an injury and Rashford looking like a doubt after scoring against Liverpool in the FA Cup, but having to leave with a knee injury. Instead of wanting to move through GW20 without making a transfer, I can't have two 'premium' assets potentially missing a number of games and it may need a third hit in consecutive weeks to shape the squad as I would like.

The injury to Marcus Rashford does not sound like a serious one, but I do think he will miss the fixture against Sheffield United and that is a big blow for my team. It is frustrating too, considering the moves made to have the squad in a good position heading into early February, but this is one of those seasons where the best made plans have fallen by the wayside and there really isn't much you can do about that.


Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has stated Marcus Rashford has been in training on Monday and Tuesday, and it is something that is perhaps going to prevent me taking the hit. I have a decent looking bench this week if he doesn't play, but there is always the worry that Rashford comes on for a cameo as he did at Fulham last week.

Kevin De Bruyne's absence is much clearer and replacing him is the major thought process I am working with ahead of GW20- the options are pretty clear for me as I look for the Manchester City replacements considering their three games coming up over the next week, although I have considered one or two other names.

Those have come from Leicester City (Harvey Barnes, James Maddison and Ayoze Perez look like good options, the last of those looks like being the main replacement for Jamie Vardy who will be back in February).

Another team with some good looking fixtures coming up is Everton and they are looking healthier than they have at any time over the last two months. James Rodriguez would be the main target and with three decent looking games to come, although for now I think I may wait to upgrade other positions with their assets.

There is also a feeling that Everton are going to have a couple of DGWs coming up very soon which will bolster my squad so that is something to keep in mind.

However my lean is with the Manchester City midfielders who have three good fixtures to come and with players in decent form. Bernardo Silva has thrived in the past when KDB has been missing games, while Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan are very strong options too which opens the door to upgrading assets in other positions.

The deadline is coming up at 4:30pm on Tuesday and I think it will be a decision I make as close to that time as possible, but my leans are fairly clear.