NFL Playoff Picks- Championship Games 2025 (Sunday 26th January)

We are down to the final three games of the 2024 NFL season and the Championship Games are going to set the Super Bowl match up for two weeks time.

It has been a fun season and you would say that at least one of the teams involved are a surprise name, but in the main we are set for two big games and the Super Bowl should be a lot of fun regardless of the match up that will be set.

The season is going to be one that finishes with a winning record, but a strong end is the target and then to get ready to go again in eight months time.

My only hope is that there is less refereeing controversy this week compared with the Divisional Round.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Having a rookie Quarter Back along with a first year Head Coach and then being blown out in Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suggested the Washington Commanders (14-5) would have to go through something of a transitional season in the tough NFC East.

Instead, Jayden Daniels has surpassed all expectations and Head Coach Dan Quinn has set a standard, which the Commanders players having been very willing to follow.

Getting into the Playoffs is a big achievement for Washington, but even the most optimistic of fans could not have expected the Commanders to win consecutive road games for the first time in the post-season. Upsets over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions, the Number 1 Seed, has given Washington an opportunity to play the NFC Championship Game for the first time since the 1991 season when they won the Super Bowl.

A familiar opponent will be in front of the Commanders as they play the Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) for the third time in the 2024 season.

The two teams split the regular season meetings, but the Eagles will feel pretty comfortable in the match up, even if Jayden Daniels is playing at a very high level.

Of course there has to be some confidence in the Washington ranks having beaten the Eagles in the most recent meeting, but that was also a game in which Philadelphia Quarter Back Jalen Hurts was out with a concussion very early on. And even then, it took a late drive from the Commanders to earn the victory, while the game here at Lincoln Financial Field was dominated by the home team.

The scoreboard might not say that, but Washington had a late score to keep that defeat respectable and they will be well aware of the challenge coming up as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

Jalen Hurts missed some time after the concussion suffered in December, but he took another heavy hit in the Divisional Round win over the Los Angeles Rams last week. There was clearly some impact on his movement in the second half and Hurts is likely going to operate with a knee brace in the NFC Championship Game, although the reports during the week is that the Quarter Back is going to be in better shape than he ended the last game.

Even if Hurts is not as mobile as usual, the Philadelphia Offensive Line is going to be the dominant force in this game and they will feel they can rip open some big running lanes for Saquon Barkley. Last week the Running Back was key to the successes the Eagles had and he should have another big game when facing this Washington Defensive Line struggling to make consistent stops.

It should make life that much more comfortable for Jalen Hurts and the conditions should be easier in which to throw compared with the Divisional Round. The cold can make things tough for Receivers, but this Eagles team have plenty of talented playmakers that will likely be in one on one coverage at times if the Offensive Line pummels Washington up front.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders may feel they can run the ball with some success in this one too, although there has been a difficult injury on the Offensive Line that will hurt the underdog. The mobile Quarter Back helps, but Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler will be hoping that the Offensive Line will still be able to give them some opportunities against this tough Eagles Defensive Line.

Without a real running threat, the Eagles could really get after Jayden Daniels and it is very important for Washington to keep this one close on the scoreboard to avoid having to throw over and over again. If they are in third and long or obviously chasing points, Philadelphia's pass rush is going to have a big impact in this game, while the Eagles Secondary have been playing at a high standard all season.

Throwing against them will be tougher for Jayden Daniels than it was against an injury hit Lions team and the Philadelphia Eagles are deserving favourites.

They look like the team that will have the better Offensive balance and the Eagles can use home advantage to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.

Running the ball and controlling the clock can be backed up by a very good Defensive unit and it feels like time is going to hit midnight for Jayden Daniels and the upstart Washington Commanders in this NFC Championship Game.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In recent years, the Buffalo Bills (15-4) have gotten the better of the Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) in the regular season, but beating them when it really matters has been beyond their reach.

In 2024, the Bills have secured another regular season win over Kansas City, but the AFC Championship Game sees the two come together in the Playoff once again. Three of the last four Buffalo Playoff runs have been ended by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium after barely holding off the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round.

The Kansas City Chiefs did not have it much easier against the Houston Texans, but they have an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of the AFC Championship Game and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills had a much tougher Divisional Round win.

On one hand they will feel battle hardened, but the other is the physical toll a game against the powerful Ravens will have had on the players and the Buffalo Bills still have so much to prove as they look to make the Super Bowl for the first time since January 1994 when they were beaten for the fourth time in a row as the AFC representative.

Controversial decisions overshadowed Kansas City's win over Houston last week with some bogus flags being thrown to keep the Offensive unit on the field, but they will need more from Patrick Mahomes if the Chiefs are going to win a third Super Bowl in a row. The zebras are hopefully not going to be over-involved in this AFC Championship Game after being criticised for some of the flags thrown last week, with conspiracy theorists offering their belief that the NFL would like to see the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if it means Taylor Swift will be attending.

Regardless of some of the poor calls, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are only concentrating on imposing themselves on this Championship Game. No one can take away from the talent and success Mahomes has had, especially as the Kansas City Chiefs have offered little support on the ground.

Andy Reid is very happy moving away from seeing run plays called and that has had to be the position for the Kansas City Chiefs with the Offensive Line struggling. They are not expected to have a lot more joy rushing the ball against this Buffalo Defensive Line and that will mean all of the pressure is on Patrick Mahomes to make plays with his arm and legs.

He is capable of doing that, but becoming one-dimensional may give the Buffalo Bills to make some big plays.

Patrick Mahomes does not have the consistent Receiving option that he would like, but Travis Kelce is playing in Playoff mode and the Quarter Back should be able to make some plays down the field. However, it has not been easy to throw against this Buffalo Secondary and the Bills should believe they can contain the home team for long enough to give their own Offensive unit a chance to win this game.

For everything he has achieved in the NFL, Josh Allen knows that he will be judged by successes in the Playoff and he is going to be the key player for Buffalo. Last week Allen got the better of Lamar Jackson by playing a clean game and more of that will be needed against this Kansas City Defensive unit that deserves a lot of credit for the team building the record that they have.

It may be Josh Allen's legs that make the first impact on this game with the Kansas City Defensive Line just having one or two issues stopping the run in recent games. With James Cook behind him, Buffalo can use the RPO to just move into third and manageable positions on the field, which is key for a team that does not have a stand out Receiver, but have a number of players ready to make the big catch when needed.

Playing in front of the chains negates what has been a disruptive Kansas City pass rush with Josh Allen not having to hold onto the ball for too long and the Buffalo Bills may find a balance in their play-calling that gives them the edge.

In recent years we have seen Buffalo falter in the big moments and the Kansas City Chiefs are two time defending Super Bowl Champions so it is not easy to back against the Chiefs here.

However, the Buffalo Bills may have come through their most difficult challenge after winning the turnover battle against the powerful Baltimore Ravens and Josh Allen may finally take this franchise back into the Super Bowl.

Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes have found a way to win games when not being at their best all season, but they will need their best to beat Buffalo. The struggles to run the ball may just mean Buffalo can prepare a little more for what is to come from the home team and the Secondary have played well enough to stall drives.

With Josh Allen's dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, the Buffalo Bills may just come through as the narrow underdog in the AFC Championship Game.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.90 Units

NFL Championship Game PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 29th)

The NFL Championship Games take place on Sunday as we finally learn the names of the two teams that will be competing in the Super Bowl in a fortnight from now.

Both games have the look of being fascinating viewing for the neutrals and I do think both could come down to the wire.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: If you are being honest, it has felt like the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) and San Francisco 49ers (15-4) have been on a collision course in the NFC. They have looked the two best team and strong wins in the Divisional Round means the two will meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

You have to really like the composition of both rosters and I do think it will be a very close, competitive game.

There are some weaknesses that the other side will be looking to exploit, but it would be a real surprise if the outcome is still not in doubt as we hit the two minute warning in the Fourth Quarter.

The 49ers have to be given credit for the way they have overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy continues to surpass expectations. Mr Irrelevant will only be the fifth rookie Quarter Back to play in a Championship Game, but Purdy has to overcome the fact that the previous four were all beaten and struggled with Interceptions.

Kyle Shanahan is not expected to lean on his Quarter Back and put him in a dangerous position to turn the ball over. Instead the 49ers will continue to lean on the running game and will scheme up a number of misdirections and runs from different players to try and keep the Philadelphia Eagles off-balance.

Despite the improvements made on the Defensive Line, the Eagles have still had one or two issues stopping the run as they would like and that can only be encouraging news for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey may be the lead Running Back, but Deebo Samuel is someone that the 49ers will line up in the backfield and he is capable of ripping off a big run or two at any time, which should keep Brock Purdy and company in front of the chains.

This is so important for the 49ers- Purdy can make quick throws to get the ball into the hands of his skill players, but the San Francisco 49ers will not want to be in a position where he has to allow routes to develop down field and then have to deal with the vicious Eagles pass rush.

Throwing against the Eagles Secondary is not going to be easy and the 49ers did have issues moving the ball consistently and scoring points against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round. As good as the Dallas Defensive unit have been, the Philadelphia Eagles have been even better and I think they will feel they can slow down the rookie Quarter Back as long as they can stay on top of the run game.

Brock Purdy will make the headlines as the rookie and the last selection in the NFL Draft, but he should be the first to tell anyone that listens how important the rest of the roster is. The San Francisco Defense turned the ball over a couple of times in the narrow win over Dallas last week and I do think that was vital to the outcome of the game and the 49ers will be looking to earn some extra possessions against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.

A Defensive Line that has been very strong against the run will be key for the 49ers, but there is one big factor that has been mentioned in the build up and that is the playmaking ability of Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back for the Eagles. Mobile Quarter Backs can be very tough to play and it has bene something of a relative weakness for the 49ers, although it is a theory that has not been tested much at all this season.

Jalen Hurts could be the key for the Eagles- that additional running threat may just give the 49ers pause for thought up front and playing in front of the chains is huge for the Eagles against a very tough Defensive unit on the other sidelines.

Slowing down the San Francisco pass rush would be a bonus of staying in manageable down and distance, while it would also just open up some of the passing lanes. A strong end to the season has given the 49ers Secondary some confidence, but the Eagles have a lot of top options in the Receiving unit and I do think Philadelphia can win against the Defensive Backs they are facing.

Both of these teams have positive trends behind them, but the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in the last ten games between them.

I think it will be close and there won't be much between the two teams, while turnovers are the one factor that you cannot really predict, yet will have a huge outcome in this one.

My feeling is that the home field advantage and the ability of Jalen Hurts to move the chains with his legs will ultimately make the difference for Philadelphia on the day. Both Defensive units are amongst the best in the NFL, while Brock Purdy may become the latest rookie Quarter Back to falter in the Championship Round of the PlayOffs.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Most were expecting the AFC Championship Game to have to be played on a neutral field and tickets were already being sold on that basis, but no one told the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) what script had been written. Instead they dominated the Buffalo Bills on the road in the Divisional Round and for a second season in a row they will head to Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game.

Last season the Bengals upset the home team Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) as a big underdog and Joe Burrow has continued his dominance of this opponent since heading into the NFL by making it 3-0 against the Chiefs during the 2022 regular season. It is no wonder the spread is much closer for this AFC Championship Game compared with when they met last year, while the additional reason is the high ankle sprain Patrick Mahomes is dealing with.

The Kansas City Quarter Back has been in practice, but most feel he is going to be limited at best once the real game starts.

That is obviously far from ideal for the Chiefs who know how important the mobility of Patrick Mahomes is to his overall game and losing that, or being limited, has proven to be hard to overcome in previous games when suffering with an injury. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line, but a part of that success is down to being able to scramble away from the pressure and I do think Patrick Mahomes is not going to be as strong in that aspect of his play in the AFC Championship Game.

When these teams met last month, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to run the ball really well and they may have to lean on that approach again if Andy Reid feels his Quarter Back is not at full health. However, there has been an improvement in the performance of the Cincinnati Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run as they have gotten healthier on this side of the ball.

Andy Reid is also a Head Coach that can lose interest in running the ball and it may be on Patrick Mahomes to lead the Kansas City Chiefs as he has done for much of his time with the team. The Quarter Back will have spaces in the Secondary to expose if he is able to put weight on his damaged ankle and Travis Kelce is expected to have a strong game for the Chiefs.

As I've said a few times, much will depend on how healthy Patrick Mahomes is and even a fully healthy Quarter Back might have had some issues beating Cincinnati.

He has yet to do that since Joe Burrow arrived in Cincinnati and the Bengals have momentum behind them after upsetting the Buffalo Bills on the road. The team are also getting healthier at the right time and the Offensive Line used the week between the Wild Card and Divisional PlayOff games to just work out how they were going to plug the gaps left by injured players.

That performance against the Buffalo Bills was really impressive from the Offensive Line which bullied the Bills up front and protected Joe Burrow when he stepped back to throw. The punishing moves to get Joe Mixon on track was huge in the win over Buffalo and stopping the run has been something of a weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs, which can only mean good things for the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

If they can establish the run, Joe Burrow and the passing game should be able to purr into action. There are some top Receiving options for a Quarter Back that has thrived in playing big games both in College and in the pro ranks, while running the ball anywhere nearly as well as they did last week will mean Joe Burrow has a touch more time in the pocket to make the big plays downfield.

Kansas City's Secondary have played well down the stretch, but they won't have come up against too many teams with as dynamic playmakers as the Cincinnati Bengals.

I do like the chances of seeing a repeat rather than revenge in this AFC Championship Game after the Bengals upset the Chiefs in January 2022. While this won't be the same level of upset, the Bengals are the underdog again and Joe Burrow and company will play with the motivation of wanting to prove people wrong again.

Patrick Mahomes is not expected to be at full health, which is a blow for the Kansas City Chiefs, while this has been a team that have regularly been over-rated by the odds compilers this season.

Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams, while they are also 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen against a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs have been struggling against the numbers and they are a surprising 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten at home. A poor record against the Bengals will be a mental obstacle to overcome and I think the road underdog can find a way to reach back to back Super Bowls with a victory at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

NFL PlayOffs Championship Games 2022 (January 30th)

The NFL Championship Games in the PlayOffs are going to be played on Sunday and I am looking to round off what has been a difficult season with some positive momentum to take into the 2022 season.

With just three games left until September, I am hoping the Championship Games are even half as fun as the last two weekends have proven to be.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In the regular season, it was the Cincinnati Bengals win over the Kansas City Chiefs which cost the latter home field advantage in the PlayOffs. However, the same Bengals have been to the Number 1 Seeded Tennessee Titans in the post-season and knocked them off, which has allowed the Chiefs to host another AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs were a little fortunate to come away with a win over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, but they blew out the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round. Their opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals, have been involved in two close wins over the Titans and previously the Las Vegas Raiders, but the win over Kansas City in Week 17 will not be far from the minds of either set of players.

It does make me wonder if this line is a touch too high considering what the Bengals did against the Chiefs in that win at home, and especially when you think of how Josh Allen carved up this Kansas City Secondary last week. A coin toss and some poor game management cost Buffalo as much as anything else, but I do think the Kansas City Chiefs will feel destiny is on their side after that victory.

In saying that, Cincinnati have nothing to lose as a big underdog and they will feel they have learnt plenty from the Chiefs in the win over them. Joe Burrow is a Quarter Back that has been very successful in the post-season both as a College player and a pro, and I do think the Bengals have full belief in their Quarter Back.

However, the Offensive Line has got to play a lot better than what we have seen in the post-season when Joe Burrow has been under siege at times. He was battered by the Tennessee Titans to the point where the win over the Number 1 Seed has been even more unexpected, and Joe Burrow is going to need a lot more support from the Offensive Line if he is going to avoid a defeat in this one.

Joe Mixon will be important as the Bengals will look to establish the run against a Kansas City Defensive Line which has been inconsistent up front. As good as Mixon has been at Running Back, the Bengals Offensive Line has not really been as strong as Cincinnati fans would have liked and they have struggled to open holes up front as much as they have struggled in protecting Joe Burrow.

Kansas City do not have the same kind of pass rush as the Titans, but they are good enough to at least get in Joe Burrow's face and that could lead to some mistakes for someone who will be playing the biggest game of his life. Winning a National Championship should give Joe Burrow plenty of confidence, but reaching a Super Bowl is a different level and beating Kansas City on the road is going to be a monster challenge for the Quarter Back.

I think Joe Burrow will score points with the Bengals much as Josh Allen did in the Divisional Round, but I also think he is not playing to the same level as the Buffalo Bills Quarter Back. If the Cincinnati Offensive Line is not able to set up the run, I do think it could be tough to throw the ball with the crowd at Arrowhead Stadium compared with how Joe Burrow played at home.

Joe Burrow will get his points, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are very likely to get theirs and I think they will have enough to move into another Super Bowl after beating arguably the best team in the AFC. The narrow win over the Buffalo Bills will have given the Chiefs every bit of confidence and I do think they are still going to play with an attitude of being overlooked with many believing the Cincinnati Bengals may be able to find an upset.

Running the ball may not be high on the agenda when it comes to the play-calling, but the Chiefs should be able to establish the ground game whenever they have the ball. The Bengals Defensive Line has struggled and putting Patrick Mahomes in a position to get the play-action and quick passes going is a position that no Defensive unit really wants to be in.

The feeling is that Patrick Mahomes can have a very big game with the team capable of moving the ball on the ground and he should be under very little pass rush pressure too. This is important for the Kansas City Chiefs and I do think they will be well aware that many feel the Bengals could potentially upset them here.

Kansas City were fortunate to cover last week, but they are now 6-0 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite. This is a game in which many are tipping up the Bengals to perhaps upset the Chiefs and I do think that is down to the Week 17 game, but this time the Chiefs are unlikely to be overlooking their opponent and it should show up in the AFC Championship Game.

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are here to stay, but this may be a lesson for them that helps them grow and I will back the Kansas City Chiefs to find the Offensive balance to pull clear and cover.

The public look to be behind the Cincinnati Bengals too and I think that only hardens my belief that the Kansas City Chiefs are the right side.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The long-term thinking for most casual fans is that it is very difficult to beat a team three times in the NFL season, but the actual facts play out somewhat differently.

Last season the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did avoid the sweep to the New Orleans Saints, but ten of the last fourteen teams looking to beat a Divisional rival for a third time in the same season have managed to do just that. The San Francisco 49ers have beaten the Los Angeles Rams twice already in 2021 and they are a team with momentum as they look for a third road win in a row in the NFL PlayOffs to reach the Super Bowl.

Knocking off the Number 1 Seeded Green Bay Packers on the road days after doing the same to the Dallas Cowboys has given the 49ers confidence. The fans are happy to pay the prices to make this feel like a home game too, although the fact is that teams looking for a sweep of three games in one season have struggled a little more on the road than they have at home.

Now the 49ers have to also face a Los Angeles Rams team that have looked pretty strong in beating the Arizona Cardinals and reigning Super Bowl Champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You could argue that Matthew Stafford is playing the best Football of the season at Quarter Back and the Los Angeles Rams know that two home wins will secure a Super Bowl title.

It puts pressure on the Rams and I think the Offensive unit is going to be tested by the San Francisco Defense which has been playing at a high level in the post-season. They have limited the Cowboys and Packers to a combined 27 points on the road and beating the Rams twice will mean the Defensive unit go into the Championship Game with full belief they can do the same here.

The 49ers held the Rams to 34 combined points in the two games in the regular season and they will feel being able to keep them at the average will give their team every chance of progressing to the Super Bowl. They do look to match up pretty well with the Rams on this side of the ball and that is very much down to the fact that the Defensive Line has been able to control the line of scrimmage.

Cam Akers is back for the Los Angeles Rams, but I am not sure they are going to find much room from conventional running plays. The game plan may be for Matthew Stafford to get the ball out into the flat in his playmaker's arms as quickly as possible and look for some yards after the catch in place of a running game.

However, failing to be able to run the ball allows the San Francisco pass rushers to pin back their ears and put Matthew Stafford under pressure at Quarter Back. With a banged up Offensive Line, the Rams may struggle to contain the 49ers in third and long and that has helped a Secondary make some big plays.

Stopping the Rams and all of their weapons completely is not going to be easy, but the 49ers have shown they match up well with them on this side of the ball. Los Angeles have also been so reliant on the pass that it has bred some inconsistencies in their Offensive drives and I certainly believe the 49ers have the Defense which can keep them in this game.

It sounds like Jimmy Garoppolo will be leaving the San Francisco 49ers in the off-season even if he helps the team win the Super Bowl and that is largely down to the fact that most believe the Quarter Back is fortunate to play in the system. He made some poor decisions in the first two games of the PlayOffs and that is a concern for the team, although he may benefit from not having to throw the ball too often.

Jimmy Garoppolo had a good game in the win over the Los Angeles Rams in this Stadium last month, but the 49ers are going to want to give the ball to their Running Backs and Deebo Samuel for as much as possible. The Quarter Back will have to keep the Rams honest, but the 49ers do match up well with the Rams who have struggled to stop the run and I expect to see long, extended drives from the 49ers in this one.

There has been some improvements with the level of performance of the Rams Defensive Line, but someone like Samuel is a huge match up problem depending on where he lines up and that should mean San Francisco are able to establish the run. Getting in front of the chains will just slow a Rams pass rush, which is very dangerous, and the key for the 49ers is looking to get Trent Williams on the field.

Injuries in the Los Angeles Secondary should give Jimmy Garoppolo a chance to have another decent showing in this Stadium, but turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. He has to be more careful with the accuracy of his passes, but I do think the Quarter Back can do enough to keep up with the Rams and potentially win this one outright.

The underdog has now covered in six straight between these Divisional rivals and San Francisco are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road against the Rams. Under Kyle Shanahan they have had the better of Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams and the 49ers have covered the last four times these teams have met.

San Francisco are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the road underdog, including going 2-0 in the NFL PlayOffs, and I think they are getting just enough points to cover here.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

NFL Championship Game PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 24th)

The 2020 NFL season may have been played during a pandemic, but we are down to the final four as the Championship Games are played this weekend.

It is all credit to the NFL we have gotten here and I know I am grateful to the players for putting themselves out there for our entertainment- I have little doubt how much more difficult life would have been without the breaks given to us by the various sports and the NFL has really been a blessing over the last several months.

We will have a small break after this weekend with the Super Bowl scheduled to be played on Sunday 7th February at Raymond James Stadium and it looks like it is going to be a very strong game regardless of which two teams are going to compete in it.

Last week the NFL Picks had a bounce back week after the really poor showing in the Super Wild Card Round and I do look like completing a very strong season. To be fair it had been a poor run before the Divisional Round when the Picks went 3-1 and I am looking to back it up with the two Championship Games to be played on Sunday before the Super Bowl in two weeks time.

I do think these four teams are the best ones in the NFL and I would be disappointed if either game is a blow out. My feeling is that the Number 1 Seeds will prevail, but both road teams are not to be taken lightly as you will be able to tell when reading my thoughts below.

Before the Super Bowl my plan is to have my first Mock Draft ahead of the NFL Draft which will take place in April. I do think I will be able to create a couple of Mocks before the Draft as the Senior Bowl and Combine news comes out, while I would not be surprised to see some major trade moves made before the Draft takes place.

Teams will look a lot different by the time the NFL rolls back around next September and I am also trying to be as hopeful as possible as to how the 2021 season will look for the fans as well as the players.

My hope would be that fans will be back in greater numbers and that the International Series could be back too which means London will be fortunate to have some live NFL again.

Personally I am also keen on getting over for at least one game next year with the Dolphins playing road games in New Orleans and Las Vegas, and it is these kinds of dreams which can help the days tick along while we are all having difficulties through our day to day lives.

After the positive Divisional Round selections, you can read my Championship Picks below.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They might not be the top two Seeds in the NFC, but it does feel like the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best two teams in the Conference at this time in January.

The Buccaneers have had to win two road games against Divisional Winners to earn their spot in the Championship Game and now they are one win away from adding another piece of history to Tom Brady's long list of accolades in the NFL. Winning would mean Brady would be the first Quarter Back to play a Super Bowl in his home Stadium and there is a feeling the Buccaneers have picked up their play as each week has passed in the first with Tom Brady at the team.

After reports Brady and Bruce Arians were not on the same page, wins over the Washington Football Team and the New Orleans Saints have taken the Buccaneers to the Conference Championship Game. When Tom Brady was signed that would have been the minimum expectation for the Buccaneers in the 2020 season and the veteran Quarter Back doesn't look like he has missed a beat even at his advanced age.

Tampa Bay have won six in a row and they humiliated the Green Bay Packers in the regular season, although it did not dent the confidence of the Packers. That defeat was a bad one, but Green Bay finished with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and that means they are the only team in the Conference who have earned a Bye Week and they secured a comfortable home win over the Los Angeles Rams to earn their spot in the Championship Game.

As good as Tom Brady has been, Aaron Rodgers has been playing at MVP level for the Green Bay Packers and that is almost despite the lack of support given to him by the team. If the Packers had picked a top Receiver in the Draft last year I would have had them down as favourites to win the Super Bowl, but Rodgers is playing at an elite level and that is bringing out the best of those around him.

However I do feel just as much credit has to be given to the Green Bay Offensive Line which has been able to dominate the trenches despite the injuries they have picked up over the course of the season. David Bakhtiari is absent, but that did not stop the Packers from running over a very power Los Angeles Defensive Line last week and they have also protected Aaron Rodgers which has allowed the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back ample time to dissect teams down the field.

The battle in the trenches is going to be incredibly fun to watch on this side of the ball- the Packers Offensive Line have bullied teams and opened up big holes for the running game, but this week they are facing a Tampa Bay Defensive Line bolstered by the likely return of Vita Vea who has been activated and is ready to play according to all reports.

His presence on the Defensive Line might just give the Buccaneers a boost having been strong against the run all season, but showing some signs that there was some wear on the players up front. Now having a healthy Vea back will only make it that much more difficult for Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and the Green Bay Offensive Line to have the same kind of success they have been enjoying in recent weeks.

This is the key to the game on this side of the ball- if the Packers can get any kind of a run game going I do think they will open the field for Aaron Rodgers against a Tampa Bay Secondary which has given up some big yards. Last week the Buccaneers were able to expose the deterioration of Drew Brees who looks set to move into retirement, but Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he has throughout his career.

Stopping Aaron Rodgers is a far bigger challenge than Drew Brees at this stage of their careers and I do think Green Bay will be able to move the sticks through the air. Davante Adams is a big time Receiver for the Packers and he was schemed up to pick up 66 passing yards and a Touchdown in the win over the tough Rams Secondary in the Divisional Round.

Other Receivers have stepped up to make plays for Rodgers when Adams has not been open and I do think Green Bay can have success through the air. The key for Aaron Rodgers is avoiding the turnovers that Tampa Bay used to blow out the Packers in Week 6 of the regular season, but he will feel he is playing at a much better level now and I think Green Bay will have success and find better balance than some may believe in light of the Vita Vea return for the visiting team.

It does sound like it will be cold and possibly snowy in Green Bay at kick off on Sunday, but I think the Packers will be able to at least stay in front of the chains behind this Offensive Line.

Those conditions may not be ideal for teams coming from warmer climates to play in, although Tom Brady has plenty of experience from his time with the New England Patriots. It will be up to his team-mates to show they can cope with what could be difficult field conditions to run on, but Tampa Bay are playing well and their own Offensive Line may feel they can have success if they pick up from where they left off in the Divisional Round.

Namely run the ball.

Leonard Fournette had a strong game against the New Orleans Saints Defensive Line despite the fact the Saints had been playing the run pretty well all season. He backed up the change in pace at Running Back through Ronald Jones and it will be up to the Tampa Bay Offensive Line to try and move people around and give the two Backs a chance of keeping Tom Brady and the entire Offense in front of the sticks.

Stopping the run has been one of the weaknesses of the Green Bay Defensive unit which has played pretty well all season. In the Divisional Round Cam Akers led the Los Angeles Rams to over 5 yards per carry against this Green Bay Defensive Line and it will be important for the Buccaneers to not only keep their own team in third and manageable spots, but also keep Aaron Rodgers freezing on the sidelines by extending drives and controlling the time of possession.

I expect the Buccaneers will have some success with the two Running Backs they will trot out onto the field, but ultimately this game will still come down to Tom Brady and the vast amount of weapons he is working with these days. Antonio Brown looks set to be ruled out which is a blow, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are viable threats down the field and will give Tom Brady an opportunity to reach yet another Super Bowl.

They will be facing the power of the Green Bay Defense though with an ever improving Secondary and a decent pass rush up front that may be able to at least rattle the Quarter Back. It won't be easy to get to Brady, but injuries on the Tampa Bay Offensive Line have not cleared up and so the likes of Preston Smith and Za'Darious Smith should be able to at least get Tom Brady to throw the ball quicker than he likes when he is in obvious passing downs.

And then that will be Tom Brady throwing into the Green Bay Secondary which has some serious talent and an ability to at least slow some of the top Receiving options for the veteran Quarter Back. Stopping Tampa Bay completely looks out of the question with the experience they have at Head Coach and Quarter Back, but Green Bay will certainly feel they can do enough on both sides of the ball to eventually earn their place in the Super Bowl.

The elephant in the room has to be that Week 6 game between these teams which saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers score thirty-eight points in a row to erase an early deficit and beat the Green Bay Packers 38-10 at home. The Packers were undone by turnovers that day, but over the years we have seen a number of occasions where the team hosting the Championship Game was beaten in the regular season by their opponent and on the road.

Those teams are 14-8 outright and they are 4-3 against the spread in the last seven after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Tennessee Titans in that spot last season. Even those that have been blown out (loss by ten or more points) in the regular season game have recovered for a 5-3 against the spread in the Championship Game and that should encourage the Green Bay Packers.

I have to respect Tom Brady and his ability, while Tampa Bay have a decent record as an underdog in recent games in that spot including winning outright last week at the New Orleans Saints. However, the Green Bay Packers are a strong home favourite and they have been a very good team to back in recent PlayOff Games even though Aaron Rodgers is just 2-2 against the spread in his four previous NFC Championship Games.

Two of those losses for Aaron Rodgers have come on the road though and he is a much better Quarter Back at home and I think his Packers team will find the balance to have the edge. Tom Brady is just 6-7 against the spread in his thirteen previous Championship Games with the New England Patriots and I think the Green Bay Packers will find the plays to edge to the win here, although it should be a really good game to watch.

In recent years the team that have won the regular season game have tended to do the same in the Championship Game rematch, but I think there are enough factors to believe the Green Bay Packers can overcome that. The conditions should suit the home team, they should have the superior balance Offensively even with the likely improvement in the Tampa Bay Defensive Line and I think Aaron Rodgers will play well enough at home to avoid the turnovers which have fuelled the Buccaneers in their win the regular season as well as the one over the New Orleans Saints in the SuperDome in the Divisional Round.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The top two Seeds in the AFC have long looked the best teams in this Conference and I think this Championship Game was the more predictable of the two we are going to see on Sunday.

The Kansas City Chiefs were able to hold on to beat the upstart Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round and it was a case of holding on when Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury. That saw the Quarter Back entering the concussion protocol, but Mahomes has been on the practice field all week and he is set to go on Sunday.

That win came after the Chiefs received the one and only Bye Week in the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket towards the Super Bowl. The Chiefs did what they needed to, but the Buffalo Bills have arguably looked more impressive in their wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, especially the latter victory, although both games were played at home and it is a different ask having to travel to Arrowhead Stadium to earn a big result.

Those wins have been well deserved and the Buffalo Bills have won eight in a row which will give them a confidence boost. They will need all of that to beat the Kansas City Chiefs who may not be dominating teams, but the Super Bowl Champions have won eleven of their last twelve games and the sole loss came in Week 17 of the regular season when they rested key starters.

It will not be the case on Sunday in the Championship Game and there is a hope that important skill players like Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be available with both being limited in practice. Those two players will be important to give the Chiefs a bit more balance Offensively, but the Offensive Line may also be back to full health which is very important to Patrick Mahomes and the entire Chiefs team.

A fully functioning Offensive Line will give the Chiefs an opportunity to establish the run and especially if Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell are ready to play. With Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back you know the Bills will concentrating on shutting down the passing lanes, but that did not work out very well for them when these teams met in the regular season and the Defensive Line have not really been able to contain the run as well as they would have liked in recent games.

The Bills will point out the successes they had against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, but they did not respect Lamar Jackson's passing ability as much as they will have to respect what Patrick Mahomes can do and that is a vital difference. It should mean Andy Reid is able to scheme up plays to move the ball on the ground, although I imagine Mahomes is not going to be keeping too often in this one to avoid any more unnecessary hits that could see him knocked out of this game.

Buffalo have a strong Secondary in terms of the pure talent on the roster and a Head Coach who is Defensive minded, but there have been holes in this unit which are sure to be exposed by Patrick Mahomes. If the Bills do decide to contain the run, Mahomes should have a big game and this really is a 'pick your poison' kind of day for Buffalo.

It will mean there is a pressure on the Buffalo Bills Offensive unit to potentially have to keep up in a shoot out and for Josh Allen to show he belongs with the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL. I have to admit I have been largely impressed with the development of Josh Allen in the 2020 season, but he has also been helped by the moves made by the Buffalo Bills which have improved the Receiving options considerably for the young Quarter Back.

Gabriel Davis is not expected to suit up for the Bills, but Stefon Diggs has been huge for them since being traded from the Minnesota Vikings. Cole Beasley, John Brown and Dawson Knox do offer Josh Allen some serious Receiving threats, but Josh Allen will know it will be far from easy against this Kansas City Secondary and he will have to show what he has learned from the regular season game against the Chiefs when Buffalo were held to 206 yards and Allen has just 122 passing yards.

Most of the problems come from the fact that Buffalo have not really run the ball as effectively as they would have liked and that can be a big problem when we get to January. It hasn't cost them so far and Buffalo have looked good, but Josh Allen will need his team to keep him in front of the sticks and his legs will be as important as his arm in this one.

There are some holes on the Kansas City Defensive Line which does allow teams to establish the run, but Buffalo have schemed away from that and it will aid the Chiefs. I still expect Josh Allen to lead some nice drives, but he will be under pressure from the Kansas City pass rush and this is a Chiefs Secondary that are capable of making some big plays when necessary as they showed when stopping the Cleveland Browns on the goal-line before half time in the Divisional Round win.

The feeling is that we are going to get a close game here, but Kansas City have the mental edge having deservedly beaten the Buffalo Bills in the regular season. Now they get to host the AFC Championship Game and they will certainly believe they can build on the 7-2 record teams who won the regular season match up have built in the Championship Game rematch.

On the scoreboard the regular season game was competitive, but Kansas City had over double the total yards of the Buffalo Bills and I still think they have the superior team.

The key is Patrick Mahomes- he has stated he is out of the concussion protocol and will play on Sunday, but if the Chiefs have to go with Chad Henne I am not at all convinced about their chances of winning this game. With Mahomes at Quarter Back I think they will have too much scoring power and especially if the Offensive Line is intact after injuries over the last few weeks.

Buffalo are 7-1-2 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog and they are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten overall which are numbers that have to be massively respected.

At the same time Kansas City have been failing to perform to the level of 'good teams win, great teams cover' as they have not managed to do that in their last four as the home favourite and are just 1-8 against the spread in the last nine overall. That includes failing to cover against the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round, but they may have felt their options were greater if Patrick Mahomes had played the whole game.

Even then the Chiefs have not been covering which is a concern, but I think this spread is low enough to be a manageable one for them. Not many teams have gotten the better of the Bills in the 2020 season, but Kansas City handled them really well on the road and I think they are looking pretty healthy right now which will give them the edge.

Buffalo can come again in 2021 with Josh Allen having another year under his belt, but for me the defending Super Bowl Champions will be able to make it repeat, not revenge, in this AFC Championship Game after beating the Bills in the regular season.

Covering small spreads as favourites has not been a winning formula in the last ten seasons with none of the three favourites of less than 3.5 points being able to do that. However I think Patrick Mahoms is an elite Quarter Back which is underlined by his 26-14 record against the spread when favoured by less than double digits and I expect him to come out and dominate this game against a challenger to his throne in Josh Allen.

The team which won the regular season meeting is 5-2 against the spread in Championship Game rematches and I think Kansas City will extend that after the Green Bay Packers get the better of that trend.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 3.36 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)

Wild Card Round: 1-5, - 8.18 Units (12 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 17: 4-5, - 3.10 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)

Week 16: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 15: 3-4-1, - 2.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 14.88% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 3 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.75% Yield)

Week 13: 5-5, - 0.82 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.10% Yield)

Week 12: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 11: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-3-1, + 1.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.13% Yield)

Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)

Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)

Season 2020: 78-63-4, + 13.46 Units (292 Units Staked, + 4.61% Yield)

NFL PlayOffs Championship Games Picks 2020 (January 19th)

In the last few years upsets have been rare in the Divisional Round of the NFL PlayOffs, but there was one major one last week when the Tennessee Titans knocked off the Baltimore Ravens on the road.

The other three home teams all playing off a Bye were winners, but the Titans rolling over Baltimore was a massive upset. Tennessee now go into the AFC Championship Game facing the Number 2 Seed in the Conference with the chance to beat the top three teams on the road as the Number 6 Seed which would be a remarkable achievement.

Winning at Arrowhead Stadium won't be easy, but Tennessee are playing with confidence and that looks an interesting game to open the Championship Games. The second one between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers has put the top two Seeds in the NFC on a collision course and this should be a fun day which sets up the Super Bowl contest that will be played in two weeks time.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: When the NFL PlayOffs began I think most would have been comfortable predicting the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs would make the AFC Championship Game- while the Chiefs secured their spot, the Baltimore Ravens became the second upset victims of the Tennessee Titans who rolled to a big road win over them in the Divisional Round.

The Number 6 Seeded Titans have already won at the Number 3 Seeded New England Patriots before knocking off the top Seed in the Conference. Winning a third road game against the team that finished in between Baltimore and New England would be a huge achievement for Tennessee, but this is arguably the most difficult of the tests in front of them.

There is no doubt that Baltimore were hot going into the PlayOffs, but Kansas City have looked like the team most rounding into form and I would have been comfortable backing the Chiefs even if they had been travelling to Baltimore. The Defensive unit has picked up their play and it looks like Chris Jones is trending towards playing on Sunday which will give them another boost.

Some might be surprised to read that I believe the Defensive unit have been playing well considering they gave up 31 points to the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, but that was largely down to a horrific First Quarter when a blocked punt produced one Touchdown and a muffed punt left Houston inside the 10 yard line for another. After the first twenty minutes, Kansas City settled down on that side of the ball and restricted Houston to 7 points over the last forty minutes which shows what they are capable of.

Slowing down Derrick Henry is going to be a major problem for Kansas City with the big Running Back hammering New England and Baltimore and pounding them into submission. All season one of the main problems for the Chiefs has been stopping the run so you have to imagine Henry can have another very big game, although the key requirement for the team is making sure they don't allow Kansas City to build a big lead and force them to have to take to the air.

Ryan Tannehill has found a new lease of life with the Tennessee Titans having arrived from the Miami Dolphins prior to the season beginning and starting out as the backup to Marcus Mariota. Since Tannehill has come in, the Titans have been flying, although he has not been asked to do too much during this strong run that has taken them to the AFC Championship Game.

While there are one or two holes in the Kansas City Secondary which have been hit by teams as they chase the comeback, the Titans won't want to rely on the Tannehill arm in what could be cold and windy conditions at Arrowhead.

Those conditions may actually work to Tennessee's favour for the most part, especially if it is as gusty as some have suggested it is going to be. It might make it a little tougher for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to sling the ball around as they did last week when scoring Touchdowns on seven consecutive possessions which turned the Divisional Round Game right around.

Even then you wouldn't really back against Mahomes having another big showing and his threat has opened things up in the running game too. Damien Williams played a huge part in the success over the Houston Texans and he could find a few more running lanes against the Titans who will have to be wary of the ability of Mahomes to make plays when scrambling for First Downs himself.

Patrick Mahomes has been well protected by his Offensive Line too so he should have time to find Receivers down the field against a Tennessee Secondary which has not been able to stop teams from throwing against them. Where the Titans have had successes is by winning the turnover battle in the last couple of games, but Mahomes is not likely to make big mistakes and it only took some big drops to stop the Chiefs moving the chains last weekend.

Tennessee did win the regular season meeting between these teams, but Patrick Mahomes was not at full health back then and even then the Chiefs were a missed Field Goal from moving Overtime. You do have to respect the Titans and the way they have some momentum behind them, while stopping Derrick Henry might be next to impossible outside of moving a couple of scores clear and forcing the Titans to have to rely on Ryan Tannehill instead.

Colder conditions do make those teams who run the ball that much more dangerous, but Kansas City look better balanced and I do think they have been peaking at just the right time. Teams who have won the regular season game and then rematched in the PlayOff Championship Game do have a lot more success than failure so the Titans will feel confident, but I think Kansas City might have too much scoring for their team.

The Chiefs are 4-2-1 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season and they are 3-1-1 against the spread in that spot.

There are some major trends that go against Kansas City from a historical perspective as teams who score 39 or more points in a PlayOff Game have struggled to cover in their next one. The Titans have been dominant on the ground and if they can keep things close early they will have a chance, but I think Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have learned a lot from their AFC Championship Game loss from last season and they will start faster this time around.

If they can do that the Chiefs should have just enough to edge to the win and the cover in this one.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: I am sure I am not the only one who immediately thought back to the Week 12 regular season meeting between these teams when the Green Bay Packers booked their spot in the NFC Championship Game and a return to the San Francisco 49ers. The immediate reaction has to be that we are going to see more of the same, especially as teams are 12-6 in regular season rematches in Championship Games and 9-2 when they won that regular season game by 21 points.

You can see why so many would favour the 49ers who have home advantage and looked to be in fine form when crushing the Minnesota Vikings in the Divisional Round. They have also had one extra day to rest and prepare for this game and I do think that could play a part when it comes down the stretch, and that makes it very important for the Green Bay Packers to make a much better start than when these teams first met.

The Packers were down 23-0 at half time that day, but they have won six in a row since then and they have to be feeling pretty good with the way they handled the Seattle Seahawks last week. Aaron Rodgers had one of his more productive days of the season and the Packers are going to need him to be at his best having been stymied in the regular season meeting against this Defensive unit.

Aaron Rodgers found himself under significant pressure throughout that one, but part of the reason was the inability to get much going on the ground. The other Aaron, Jones, has been playing pretty well behind a healthier Offensive Line in recent games although Dalvin Cook got next to nothing out of this San Francisco Defensive Line last week and so it might be another tough outing for the Running Back. Instead he might be a threat catching balls out of the backfield to try and loosen up things for the run, while I do think Rodgers will come out throwing as long as it is not towards Richard Sherman.

Davante Adams will be able to make plays lined in different places, but Green Bay will need someone else to step up to ease the pressure on them. The Offensive Line also have to show they have learnt something from their blow out loss in Week 12 when Aaron Rodgers was Sacked five times and under pressure throughout.

While I do think the Packers will be better Offensively than they were in the loss in Week 12, the real challenge for them is going to be on the Defensive Line and working out how to have an impact on the San Francisco rushing numbers. No matter who gets the ball for the 49ers the system has been designed to put a lot of cloak and mirrors around what they are doing and it has seen San Francisco pound teams into submission.

In the win over the Vikings, the 49ers were ripping off chunks on the ground and breaking the heart of the visitors and stopping the run has been the one big weakness of the Green Bay Packers. They have to find a way to at least make Jimmy Garoppolo have to throw from third and long spots, although the Quarter Back had a solid enough showing when he was asked to do that by the Vikings too.

Jimmy Garoppolo is more than a game manager, but he is playing behind an Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection. Running the ball effectively opens things up for the Quarter Back, but if the Packers can find a way to get into position to unleash the 'Smith Brothers' then it could be a tough afternoon for Garoppolo.

He did have a very good performance in the Week 12 blow out of the Packers so Garoppolo should have confidence, but the Green Bay Secondary has played well enough to believe they can be much better this time too. I still expect the 49ers to have plenty of Offensive success in the game, but Green Bay should avoid the blow out and getting more than a Touchdown start with the road team is appealing.

Aaron Rodgers is 2-0 against the spread in that spot in his NFL career, while the 49ers are 1-4-1 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season. San Francisco did cover as the favourite last week, but they have some poor trends in that spot and they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine following a win by at least 14 points.

Green Bay have a 3-1 record against the spread as the underdog this season, although the one loss was to the 49ers when given 3.5 points in Week 12. The 9-2 record of teams who won the regular season game by 21 points and then rematching in the Championship Game is a concern for the Packers, but those teams who have been blown out have recovered to be more competitive of late.

In fact those teams who have lost by 14 or more points in the regular season are 4-1 against the spread in the Championship Game rematch in the last five games we have seen that happen. I do think Aaron Rodgers and company will have learned plenty from the Week 12 blow out and I expect them to keep this one much closer so will take the points with the Super Bowl winning Quarter Back.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Divisional: 1-3, - 4.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)
Wild Card: 2-2, - 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Week 17: 2-4, - 3.98 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.17% Yield)
Week 16: 7-4, + 5.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 22.91% Yield)
Week 15: 1-7-1, - 12.28 Units (18 Units Staked, - 68.22% Yield)
Week 14: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 3.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.38% Yield)
Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 64-69-2, - 21.36 Units (267 Units Staked, - 8% Yield)

NFL Play Offs Championship Game Picks 2019 (January 20th)

I had a pretty awful Divisional Round of the Play Offs for the second season in a row and I know exactly where I went wrong.

If I do the same next season I deserve to go 0-4 for the third year in a row.

Idiot selections aside, we have reached the NFL Championship Games and I think the four most deserving teams make up the final quartet. Home Field should be the difference maker, but you can see how closely the teams are matched that the layers are hesitant to give the home team more than the three points that is standard practice when beginning to compile spreads.

I do think both games will be fascinating and we won't see the blow outs like we did in a couple of the Play Off Games played in the Divisional Round.

Below you can read my selections for the Championship Games.


Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Back in Week 9 of the regular season the New Orleans Saints beat the Los Angeles Rams at home and that not only ended the unbeaten run of the visitors, but it also meant the Saints were able to secure home field advantage through the Play Offs. Even after the game in Week 9 the feeling was that the two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game and that has proven to be the case.

Both received a Bye in the Wild Card Round which would have been a huge help, but the Saints and Rams showed they are the two best teams in the NFC with the performances in the Divisional Round. The Rams dominated the Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, while the New Orleans Saints survived being punched in the mouth early in the game with the Philadelphia Eagles and overcame a 0-14 deficit to earn their spot in the Championship Game.

Two Offensive minded Head Coaches will receive plenty of media attention during the week, but it is going to be the play of the Defensive units which decide this game. While the Saints and Rams have been capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the two Defensive units have played their part at pivotal moments and that is going to be all important in this one.

Beating the Saints in the SuperDome may be one of the biggest challenges in the NFL and they proved that through the season. A Week 1 upset to Tampa Bay and a Week 17 loss to the Carolina Panthers with rested starters should not cloud the difficulty the Los Angeles Rams have in winning here on Sunday afternoon.

The Rams Defensive Line was huge for them against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round as they clamped down on Ezekiel Elliot. However Wade Phillips has seen his Defense struggle against the run all season and I don't think one game is enough to suggest things would have changed significantly.

When they played here in Week 9 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara had big games for the Saints and I do think the two dynamic Running Backs can do the same here. Ultimately the Rams have to respect the quality Quarter Back Drew Brees and his ability to make plays through the air and that may lead to more holes for the New Orleans Offensive Line to exploit and set the team up in third and manageable situations.

Michael Thomas had a monster game in Week 9, but I think the Saints will be looking to other options with Aqib Talib back. Drew Brees has been able to throw many unfamiliar names open and I do think play-action and short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield will keep the chains moving and put some pressure on Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams to keep up in what could be another shoot-out.

Last week the Rams were able to establish both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson in their win over Dallas and they had some really long, time consuming drives which may be the game plan for this one too. Keeping Brees and company off the field and cooling them down would be huge for the Rams, but they are playing an under-rated New Orleans Defensive unit that may feel they have the talent to make some big plays.

There has been a key injury on the Saints Defensive Line which may have a big impact on the game. Sheldon Rankings is done for the season and is a big body in the middle of the Saints Defensive Line which helped them hold teams to 3.6 yards per carry through the season. Now the Saints have to face Gurley and Anderson without him having seen the two prove huge in the win over the Cowboys in the Divisional Round and that could be where this game is won and lost.

New Orleans will feel they have enough playmakers to win this game if they can stop the run like they have for the season, but it looks a big ask. That makes things a little more comfortable for Jared Goff who has not maintained his form from the first half of the season through to the second half.

Goff has not been asked to do a lot with the run game working as well as it has for the Rams and he will need all the support he can get again if they are going to win this game. There are holes in the New Orleans Secondary to exploit, but those are much easier to attack from third and manageable than third and long so Gurley and Anderson have to have a big game and Los Angeles can't afford to fall into a big hole on the scoreboard.

It is a difficult game to predict because you simply can't know how the loss of Rankings is going to affect the New Orleans Saints. If the Rams can run the ball effectively they will be very difficult to beat, but what I do think is that we are not going to get the same time of shoot out as we did in Week 9.

Both teams will look to run the ball and I don't think the Saints will get the chunk plays through the air as they did last time. Running the ball means the clock gets worn down that much quicker and long, effective drives will be the order of the day for the Rams.

It is a big total with many expecting the teams to pick up from where they left off in Week 9, but both Offensive units have not been as explosive in the back part of the season. The Championship Game looks a good one, but one where I will look for the total points line to be a touch on the high side.


New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is another rematch in the Championship Round of the Play Offs, but this time the Kansas City Chiefs will get to host the New England Patriots having lost in Foxboro in the regular season. This is the second of the Championship Games to be played on Sunday and the layers are finding it very difficult to split the teams with home field being given the three points that is the general rule for those layers creating the spreads.

It was the New England Patriots who won the regular season game in another shoot out, but the second half performance from the Kansas City Chiefs will be a big encouragement to them. Patrick Mahomes grew in that game and has proven to be a level headed Quarter Back that can play at a very high level no matter the intense nature of the NFL.

The Chiefs comfortably handled the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round at home and having the chance to host this one at Arrowhead is a huge advantage for them. They have won eight of their nine games played at home in the 2018 season and Kansas City will be very confident against a New England Patriots team that were only 3-5 on the road.

There were a lot of people writing off the Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick to beat them last week in the Divisional Round. It was never a contest though and the Patriots dismissed the Chargers, but for once they are not hosting the AFC Championship Game and that does feel like a difference maker.

In recent years the Patriots have been very vulnerable when losing home advantage in the Play Offs and I really do think that could be the case again. I don't want to write off Bill Belichick and his brilliant mind especially as he has seen Patrick Mahomes once this season and likely compiled a great game plan to limit the young Quarter Back, but I love the way Mahomes has handled all situations.

There is no doubt that there has been an improvement in the levels the New England Defensive unit have been operating at, but those performances have been with home comforts. It has been a very different story on the road and I do think the Chiefs can find a very good balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will make it very difficult to stop them.

Damien Williams and Spencer Ware are not as good as Kareem Hunt, but both are solid enough Running Backs who should be able to have success in this one. Andy Reid is someone who will look to establish the run in different ways so Tyreek Hill running a jet sweep will also have an impact on this game, while Mahomes is an athletic Quarter Back too, but I would expect Williams and Ware to have success against the Patriots Defensive Line despite the recent strength shown up front.

Patrick Mahomes has been put under pressure at times by the opposing pass rush and that may be the case again in this one, but third and long doesn't faze him. There have been too many occasions when those have been converted into First Downs to think he is 'lucky' so I do think Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have success moving the chains as they did when these teams met in the regular season.

Beating Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Play Offs is a huge test for any team in the NFL and you know these two men are unlikely to put New England in a spot where they beat themselves. You just know Brady is itching to keep proving the doubters wrong after hearing his thoughts following the dominant win over the Chargers and the Patriots did score 43 points against the Chiefs at home.

With Josh Gordon gone, New England have been happy to lean on their Running Backs either as Receivers coming out of the backfield or pounding the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Sony Michel has been a huge success for the Patriots and have a big game in the Divisional Round, but both James White and Rex Burkhead get their touches too and the Patriots will feel they can establish the run.

This is huge for New England who know that the one thing Kansas City do very well is rushing the passer and putting them under intense pressure. It has proven that the best way to beat Brady in the Play Offs is with a strong pass rush which leads to the future Hall of Famer just getting a little edgy inside the pocket and perhaps makes him feel some phantom pressure that lead to mistakes.

That pressure for the Chiefs has been a key reason the Secondary have improved as the weeks have gone on in the NFL. While Brady will have some success, I do think the Chiefs have the edge with the pass rush that can at least stall some drives and give Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

As you can tell I do like Kansas City, although some of the enthusiasm is taken away when you think of the Coaching battle. I like Andy Reid, but he has Coached some poor Play Off games which would concern me against someone like Bill Belichick.

However Reid seems to hold all the Aces in this one and my favourite to win the Super Bowl is Kansas City so I do believe they win this one. Backing the home team to cover against the Patriots in the Play Offs may seem dangerous, but New England are 1-4 in their last five road Play Off games and they are also 1-4 against the spread in that time.

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams Under 56.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)