NFL Super Wild Card Weekend PlayOffs Picks 2024 (January 13-15)

The final week of the regular season is officially in the books and that means we have our fourteen PlayOff teams heading into the post-season.

One from each Conference will be resting this week and watching the others fight it out for a place in the Divisional Round- the two Number 1 Seeds look most likely to meet in Las Vegas next month in the Super Bowl, but there are one or teams in the PlayOffs who will be looking to upset those plans.

Injuries and a loss of form at a bad time means there are a couple of outsiders who are not going to be heavily backed at this point of the season, but you have to play the games on the field and every team that still has a chance of making the Super Bowl will be looking for some momentum to take them through.

The Super Wild Card Round is now going to be played from Saturday through to Monday- money talks so the Monday Night Football PlayOff game is going nowhere.

A worry was that the winning team in that slot would struggle in the short week entering the Divisional Round, but the early sample of games has those teams at 1-1 the following weekend. This time it is the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meeting in the final game of the Super Wild Card Weekend and that could mean a trip to the Number 1 Seed in the Divisional Round for the winner if the other Seeds hold up.

However, it feels unlikely that all the higher Seeds will go through on Saturday/Sunday with some good looking games being given tight lines by the oddsmakers down in Vegas.

I'll have my Picks below, but before that you can see how I rate the fourteen teams left:

1) Baltimore Ravens- they have beaten the 49ers and the Ravens look like a team capable of winning it all this season with a strong, balanced approach both Offensively and Defensively.

2) San Francisco 49ers- they were beaten in the 2019 Super Bowl and have suffered NFC Championship Game defeats in the last two years, both times on the road. This time San Francisco have home field throughout the PlayOffs until the big game, and the team looks capable of producing a first Super Bowl win in almost thirty years.

3) Buffalo Bills- momentum is important and the Bills have plenty of experience. Winning the AFC East means they will get an opportunity to host at least two home PlayOff games if they can progress in the post-season and Buffalo might just be ready to win a Super Bowl for the first time.

4) Dallas Cowboys- NFC East winners and a team that may finally live up to those from the past.

5) Kansas City Chiefs- they may be the defending Champions, but Patrick Mahomes may have to show off how good he can be on the road if the Chiefs are to return to the Super Bowl. If the Defensive unit cannot keep them in games, Mahomes and company have to finally find the rhythm that has been missing for much of the season.

6) Cleveland Browns- Joe Flacco has gotten hot in January before to lead his team to a Super Bowl win and the Browns have the kind of Defensive unit that will keep them in games.

7) Los Angeles Rams- are there many hotter teams than the Los Angeles Rams going into the post-season? Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Sean McVay have Super Bowl winning experience to guide younger players through the post-season.

8) Detroit Lions- it has been a strong season for Dan Campbell and his team, but they have a tough start to the post-season and the top two Seeds in the NFC also look a little stronger than the Lions, especially with home advantage.

9) Miami Dolphins- injuries to the Defensive unit will only increase pressure on the banged up Offensive unit. Losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 means road PlayOff Football and Miami have continued to fall short against the best teams in the NFL.

10) Philadelphia Eagles- another team that has picked up some injuries as the season has worn down. The Eagles came up slightly short last season, but they are in miserable form and have a much tougher road towards the PlayOffs than twelve months ago, while some reports suggest there is a breakdown between the players and Coaching Staff.

11) Green Bay Packers- they have perhaps gotten here a year too early with a very young roster. Jordan Love has shown some of the highs he can reach, but inexperience may hold back the team this year.

12) Houston Texans- another team that has overachieved to win the AFC South, but one that will benefit massively from PlayOff experience. CJ Stroud looks a star in the making.

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- there is still plenty of experience in the locker room, but the Buccaneers are perhaps one of the more fortunate of the teams to make the post-season.

14) Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Tomlin has to be given credit for finding a way to drag Pittsburgh to the PlayOffs, but an injury to TJ Watt comes at a very bad time. Rumour suggests Tomlin is ready to step away as Head Coach, while the Offensive unit is still being led by a third string Quarter Back.

These Rankings do not necessarily mean much in terms of how the PlayOffs will shake up, but it would be a huge surprise if any of the bottom seven were able to win the Super Bowl.

Injuries can play a major factor- ask San Francisco after the way the NFC Championship Game was lost twelve months ago. Teams can also step up to earn an upset or two behind hot Quarter Backs, but right now it would be the top two in these Rankings that are expected to compete for the Super Bowl.

Buffalo and Dallas will have something to say as good looking Number 2 Seeds, but Football is played on the field and not paper and so we should have an exciting time finding out when the post-season begins on Saturday afternoon.

Week 18 proved to be as difficult for the NFL Picks as was a concern prior to a game being played, but it has been a solid regular season for the Picks.

Backing that up in the PlayOffs is key, beginning with Super Wild Card Weekend, and the selections can be read below.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans Pick: A new Head Coach and a Quarter Back selected to be a franchise changer would likely have meant relatively low expectations of the Houston Texans in 2023. Instead, CJ Stroud has proven how good he can be, while DeMeco Ryans has guided the Texans to a surprising AFC South Division Title and the chance to host the first of the Super Wild Card Weekend PlayOff games.

It is a rematch of a Week 16 meeting with the Cleveland Browns, who finished with the top Wild Card Seed in the AFC, but this time Stroud will be suiting up for the Houston Texans. That has not prevented the Browns from being set as the road favourites, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will certainly believe their Week 18 win at the Indianapolis Colts has given them some momentum in what was effectively the first 'PlayOff' game the Texans will have faced this season.

While they battled for a place in the post-season, the Cleveland Browns were able to rest their starters for the final regular season game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The key question for the Browns is whether that has snapped any rhythm, but they have overcome plenty of issues already this season to earn their spot in the PlayOffs. Losing both Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and Nick Chubb at Running Back were massive blows for the Browns, but it is veteran Joe Flacco who came in off the street to really give Cleveland the kind of boost that has set them as favourites to reach the Divisional Round.

It may mean a road game at the Baltimore Ravens, the Number 1 Seed and the team that Joe Flacco led to a Super Bowl Championship, although the veteran is well aware of the dangers of overlooking any team when you get into the PlayOffs. He has made it clear to the Cleveland roster that they have to remember it is 'win or go home' time in the NFL and the Browns are going to need Joe Flacco at his very best if they are going to have a deep run.

You don't want to read too much into the Week 16 win secured by Cleveland, especially with Houston in better shape on both sides of the ball, but the Browns did blow out the Texans. That will give Joe Flacco confidence with the Browns very leaning on the veteran Quarter Back as injuries to the Offensive Line and top Running Back has just hurt the output of the ground attack.

Despite the blowout loss in Week 16, the Texans Defensive Line continued to shine by holding the Cleveland Browns to 1.8 yards per carry. They have been stout all season and it is unlikely that Kareem Hunt or Jerome Ford are going to be major factors as runners, although both will be targeted by Joe Flacco when he steps back to throw.

It has been Joe Flacco's ability to target David Njoku and Amari Cooper that has given the Cleveland Browns life, and the veteran will be the key again. The Houston Secondary have struggled at times, but Will Anderson Jr is back and will certainly help spark the pass rush pressure when Flacco drops back to target his Receivers down the field.

That pressure could lead to more Interceptions (Flacco had two in the win over Houston) and there is certainly a feeling that the Texans will force the experienced Quarter Back into one or two mistakes here. The Browns should still have some success throwing the ball against this Secondary, but they will need a big game from the Defensive unit if they are going to secure a place in the Divisional Round.

Key performers like Anderson Jr will be back Defensively, while Houston will also have CJ Stroud at Quarter Back rather than Case Keenum and/or Davis Mills. Those two struggled against a very strong Cleveland Defensive unit, but that Week 16 game was played at the home of the Browns and there is no doubting that this Defense has been strong, but less effective on the road.

One of the major problems for the Browns has been the Defensive Line and being able to contain the run- the Texans picked up 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season meeting and that was without CJ Stroud, who will be given a lot more respect for his abilities at Quarter Back than his backups would have been.

With the team still struggling to control the line of scrimmage, Houston will certainly be looking at Devin Singletary to establish the run for the home underdog. This could be massive for the entire team with CJ Stroud not needing as much time to make his throws down the field behind an Offensive Line that has not been as strong when it comes to pass protection as it does to run blocking.

Injuries in the Receiving corps is a big problem for Houston, but it will certainly help if they are playing in third and manageable spots. CJ Stroud has shown he can find Nico Collins, although it will an issue to find consistency when throwing the ball without some of the other players that had stepped up for the rookie Quarter Back in the regular season.

We are unlikely to see a blowout as was the case in Week 16, but the edge is still with the Cleveland Browns.

Houston have perhaps reached the post-season earlier than expected and rookie Quarter Backs have had their issues in PlayOff starts. First time Quarter Backs in the PlayOffs in general have had a difficult time and the Cleveland Browns will not have put in any big effort in Week 18 like the Texans needed to win the AFC South.

The Texans can keep this close by running the ball effectively, but Joe Flacco and company may just step up with the bigger plays in the passing game. Turnovers could be a problem for the Cleveland Browns considering they are likely to be pretty one-dimensional Offensively, but Flacco has shown he can find the spaces in this Houston Secondary to lead his team to a win.

It is the PlayOffs and nothing is likely to come easy, but the feeling is that Cleveland can just about edge through to the Divisional Round. The Texans have been a solid underdog to back this season as they have overachieved, but the Browns have been a good favourite and they can secure just a second PlayOff win since the formation of the current Cleveland Browns.

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The inability to hang onto the lead they entered the Fourth Quarter with has had a huge impact on the Miami Dolphins as they return to the PlayOffs. Instead of a home game and the Number 2 Seed in the AFC, the Dolphins dropped all the way down to the Number 6 Seed and that means having to travel to cold, very cold, Kansas City Chiefs instead.

The Chiefs are well rested having allowed the starters some time off in Week 18 with the AFC West Division secured again. They may not be the favourites to defend their Super Bowl crown, but the Chiefs are loaded with experience and it will take a strong effort to knock off Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Losing to the Buffalo Bills will have just raised those questions about the Dolphins and whether they can beat good teams or are just a product of their kind schedule. It seems to be a bit of both, but the defeat in Week 18 came with a number of injuries with the Defensive unit taking a significant hit.

A number of players look like they will be missing for Miami and they have had to pick up a number of veterans who had been sitting on the sofa to try and bolster the team. Xavien Howard is going to be a big miss at Quarter Back, although the Dolphins may look at this game as one they can manage without one of their top Defensive Backs considering Kansas City's Offensive woes through much of the season.

The line of scrimmage will be key for the Dolphins, although they have not been as efficient at shutting down the run on the road as they have been at home. The conditions may mean they will be willing to take more of a risk to attack Isiah Pacheco and stop the Chiefs establishing the run, while it would also allow the new look pass rush to try and rattle Patrick Mahomes.

Any obvious passing down and distance will give the Dolphins a chance to try and rush the Quarter Back and Patrick Mahomes has not really found a chemistry with his Receiving corps this season. The Chiefs will be able to make some plays through the air, but the conditions may make it more difficult and the bigger ambition for Mahomes may be to ensure he does not make mistakes that set up short fields for Miami.

It will mean they can lean on a Defensive unit that have played at a high level and who will feel they can get the better of a Dolphins team that have struggled when facing some of the stronger teams in the NFL. Add in the fact that Raheem Mostert and Jayden Waddle are both banged up, while Tua Tagovailoa is making his first PlayOff start and you have to believe the Chiefs can at least limit what the Dolphins are able to produce Offensively.

The Offensive Line was healthier in Week 18 and may be stronger with another week on the field- this is so important for the Miami Dolphins as the look to establish the run and try and control the outcome of this Super Wild Card game. The Dolphins have been able to run the ball with their misdirecton and motion at the line of scrimmage, but they will have to note that the Kansas City Defensive Line have just stiffened up as the season wound down.

If the Chiefs can control the line of scrimmage, they will feel the Secondary is playing well enough to benefit from the pass rush pressure they are expected to generate around Tua Tagovailoa. That pressure could lead to turnovers, which has been a problem for the Quarter Back against the better teams faced, and this may be Miami's undoing, even in Tyreek Hill's 'revenge' game.

Making mistakes will be fatal to the Miami chances and this is a team that has not enjoyed playing in the extreme cold that has been forecasted for Kansas City.

This would have been a tough PlayOff environment even in perfect conditions, but first time PlayOff starter Tua Tagovailoa may have a very difficult time in the cold, which has been a problem for him in his career.

Miami are also 2-8 in the ten road starts made by this Quarter Back with the Dolphins set as the underdog. They are just 1-5 against PlayOff teams this season, while Tua Tagovailoa is 3-7-1 against the spread when playing away from home against a team with a winning record.

He has also lost all four road starts at night when set as the underdog and the feeling is that the Kansas City Chiefs may do just enough at home to cover this spread. The public look to be favouring the road underdog, but Patrick Mahomes is 12-7 against the spread when that has happened and he can guide the Chiefs to a similar margin of victory as they had over the Dolphins in the regular season.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: After losing to the Philadelphia Eagles at the end of November, it felt like it was a long road back towards the PlayOffs for the Buffalo Bills. The players have admitted that they have felt in post-season mode ever since moving into December and the Bills have won five in a row to not only power into the PlayOffs, but to finish with the Number 2 Seed.

The reward is a home Super Wild Card game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who somehow managed to sneak into the PlayOffs as the Number 7 Seed.

It was three wins in a row that took the Steelers into the PlayOffs and two of those wins have come as the underdog, which is very impressive. Mason Rudolph was the third string Quarter Back, but leapfrogged both Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky and led the three wins over the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens to guide Mike Tomlin's men into the PlayOffs.

Some reports still suggest that Tomlin may leave his post as Head Coach when the Steelers season ends, while the biggest blow to the team is losing TJ Watt to an injury. The leader on the Defensive side of the ball has been key for the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are remarkably 1-10 without him, while going 2-4-1 against the spread since the beginning of 2022 when Watt has been sidelined.

With the cold, windy conditions expected in Buffalo on Sunday, losing Watt will still be a massive blow for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

However, that loss can be lessened if the Steelers Defensive Line can find a way to contain the run- the Bills struggled to run the ball efficiently in Miami in Week 18, but James Cook and Josh Allen are more than capable of running the ball right at the Pittsburgh Steelers and keeping the team in front of the chains.

Josh Allen has admitted that the gusty conditions may make it tougher to throw the ball, but he should have an 'easier' time if the Bills can run the ball and stay in front of the chains. Not having TJ Watt harassing him when he drops back to throw is also a huge bonus and this Pittsburgh Secondary will struggle to contain Stefon Diggs and the two Tight Ends that will run down the field and find spaces with the time Josh Allen is expected to have.

It should be noted that the Bills have struggled to cover as double digit favourite- Josh Allen has not covered in his last seven in that position, although the last cover was against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The key to that happening in this Super Wild Card game is the Buffalo Defensive unit who have really been playing at a very good level down the stretch to help guide the team into the PlayOffs. They will be facing Mason Rudolph making his first PlayOff start as a Quarter Back, a situation that has proved too much for the majority in the past in that position.

Pittsburgh have to lean on the Offensive Line and the dual Running Backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and see if they can frustrate the Bills and keep Allen and company icing up on the sidelines.

They have been a little inconsistent when it comes to running the ball, while the Buffalo Defensive Line have been a little better as the season has worn on. Much of this one could come down to how much respect the Buffalo Defensive unit have for Mason Rudolph or whether they are going to sell out on stopping Harris and Warren.

If they can control the line of scrimmage, the Buffalo pass rush will really give Mason Rudolph fits and that pressure has led to better Quarter Backs making rash decisions and forced turnovers.

Three Touchdown passes and avoiding Interceptions have been key for Mason Rudolph since being reinstated as the starting Quarter Back, but keeping a clean game may be more difficult in this one. If the game gets out of control, the Steelers will not want to be throwing in these conditions and that may only compound the issues for a Quarter Back making his first post-season start.

Mike Tomlin has a very good record as the Head Coach of an underdog-set Pittsburgh Steelers, but they are just 3-5 against the spread when given at least 8 points. The Steelers have been 7 or more point underdogs twice in the PlayOffs and are 0-1-1 against the spread, including a 21 point loss as a double digit dog at Kansas City two years ago.

This is also the third week in a row that the Steelers are playing on the road and that is a difficult spot for most teams, while an experienced Buffalo team have the momentum to push forward and earn their place in the Divisional Round with a rare cover of a massive spread.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: First time Quarter Backs playing in the post-season have had a very difficult time and the records against the spread back that up.

In Super Wild Card Weekend in January 2024, the first three games will see us opposing those Quarter Backs, but this one looks an opportunity to back Jordan Love as he brings the young Green Bay Packers to Arlington.

Three wins in a row have helped the Packers return to the PlayOffs a year after missing out with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and Jordan Love has had some very strong moments. The Packers are one of the younger rosters in the NFL and so the future looks bright, but it should also be pointed out that they are the Number 7 Seed and that means having to face a very tough road game.

The Number 2 Seeds are the Dallas Cowboys who are looking for a really strong run in the post-season. They have not played in the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season when the Cowboys last won the Super Bowl and there is pressure on Mike McCarthy as Head Coach with Jerry Jones expecting a minimum run of reaching that Championship Game this time around.

It is no surprise to see the Cowboys down as the favourites and they could be facing a Green Bay Secondary without Jaire Alexander who was hurt on Wednesday and missed practice on Thursday. Losing their best Corner Back will be a devastating blow for the Packers as they look to find a way to contain CeeDee Lamb and really would give the Dallas Cowboys an edge.

However, the Packers Defensive Line have been playing well down the stretch as they helped guide Green Bay back into the post-season. This will be encouraging for the Packers, especially as the Dallas Offensive Line have not really dominated at the line of scrimmage as we have come to expect.

Being in a position to place the pressure on Dak Prescott at Quarter Back will feel like a big advantage, even if Alexander is not good to go. While the numbers have been very good this season, Prescott would likely be under pressure from the Packers pass rush and the fact of the matter is that the Quarter Back will know the expectation level of the fans inside the Stadium.

He is just 1-5 against the spread in his six PlayOff starts for the Dallas Cowboys, while the team in general are just 3-12-1 against the spread in their last sixteen PlayOff games. Some of that is down to having to deal with a great sense of expectation, while the layers will know that people are going to be lined up around the corner to back Dallas in a big game.

Dak Prescott does have a good record when favoured by at least 6 points at home, but this game very much depends on how well Jordan Love handles his first start in the post-season.

Much like the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers would love to establish the run and try and ease some pressure on Jordan Love at Quarter Back. Aaron Jones has been back and the Packers have been running the ball well, but they are going to be facing a tough Cowboys Defensive Line who have really been stout against the run down the stretch.

This really feels like a key to the outcome of the game- both teams will feel they can dominate the line of scrimmage and it is also important to make sure Green Bay remain competitive and not be forced into a one-dimensional game plan.

The Offensive Line have been a strong part of Green Bay on this side of the ball and they have also been very good at giving Jordan Love time in the pocket. Keeping the Dallas pass rush away from Love will not be easy, but the Packers will be hoping to be in front of the chains and that should mean there is an opportunity to attack this Secondary.

Interceptions, or avoiding them, will be high on the mind of Jordan Love who could have Christian Watson back in the line up as someone who can stretch the field. The young Receiving corps have stepped up for Love and the Packers may be able to make enough plays on this side of the ball to ensure a competitive game.

Mike McCarthy would love to get one over his former team and the edge has to be with Dallas at home, although covering this spread may be more challenging.

Matt LaFleur is 20-10 against the spread when set as the underdog as the Green Bay Head Coach and he can put together a strong enough game plan to make sure the Packers are competitive in this Super Wild Card Weekend game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions Pick: After spending twelve years with the Detroit Lions, Matthew Stafford was traded to the Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff coming the other way.

It worked out very well for the Rams who won the Super Bowl in Stafford's first season as their starting Quarter Back, but the Lions fans will be very happy with the development of their own team and the abilities that Jared Goff has shown.

The 'NFL Script' has certainly come up big with the Number 3 Seeded Lions hosting the Number 6 Seeded Los Angeles Rams and it is no surprise that this has been given a primetime spot on Sunday evening. Amazingly this is the first time Matthew Stafford will be starting a PlayOff game in this Stadium, despite the number of years he played for the Detroit Lions, and he will be arriving with one of the hotter teams entering the post-season.

A few weeks ago it felt like the Los Angeles Rams were not going to be able to force a return to the PlayOffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl. However, seven wins in eight games with the only exception being a tight defeat to the Baltimore Ravens will have really boosted the belief of the Rams and they are a very live underdog.

There has been a really nice balance in the Offensive approach run by the Rams, although that may not be as evident when they face this Detroit team.

The Lions have a Defensive Line that have proven to be very strong when it comes to clamping down on the run so it may be difficult for Kyren Williams to be able to move the ball on the ground as he has at time during this successful run. You have to assume Sean McVay will find a way to produce something that resembles an effective rushing attack, but Williams may be more of a threat as a pass-catching Back rather than continuing to pound his head against the Lions brick wall.

Pass rush pressure is likely going to be a factor going against Matthew Stafford and the Rams, but the veteran Quarter Back will also recognise the problems Detroit have been having in the Secondary. The Receiving corps is certainly capable of winning their battles on the outside and the Rams should be able to make some big plays in the passing game, while also setting up screens to make sure they are not too far behind the chains.

The line of scrimmage is expected to be key on the other side of the ball as the Lions look to get plenty out of both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In recent games the Lions have been grinding out the yards, but this looks another tough challenge with the Rams Defensive Line improving week after week when it comes to stopping the run.

For all of the successes that Jared Goff has had this season and since joining up with the Detroit Lions, the Los Angeles Rams will believe that they can rattle him into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.

The Rams Secondary have allowed teams to have success throwing the ball against them and the Lions should be able to get the passing game going, especially as the Offensive Line have offered Jared Goff plenty of time. However, there have been some big Interceptions in key games down the stretch and making those mistakes will certainly give the Rams an advantage as far as the outcome goes.

Jared Goff will be a player that Sean McVay knows plenty about, but he has really performed well for Head Coach Dan Campbell.

He has been particularly impressive indoors and Matthew Stafford has a pretty poor record as the underdog- only one of the last six games started by Stafford for the Rams has been with the team set as the underdog, although he did help cover in that one against the Baltimore Ravens.

In general Matthew Stafford has struggled and his team is just 1-9 in the last ten in that position straight up.

Beating their former Quarter Back to head through to the Divisional Round would be a huge plus for the Lions, but teams being set as favourites in their first PlayOff game after missing out the previous years have tended to cover. Momentum is with the Los Angeles Rams and Stafford should be very comfortable in this Stadium, while McVay's familiarity with Jared Goff has to give the Rams another edge.

There should be plenty of points scored, but taking those on offer with the road underdog looks the most appealing angle to play.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Things can change very, very quickly in the NFL and there is a feeling that something has shifted irreversibly with the Philadelphia Eagles.

A few weeks ago they looked on course to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC for a second season in a row and many would have had them down as favourites to reach the Super Bowl and perhaps even manage to finish with the Championship. Instead the team have lost five of their last six games and not only failed to earn the top Seed, but did not defend their NFC East crown and dropped to the Number 5 Seeding.

It likely means needing to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl rather than two home games, while reports suggest Head Coach Nick Sirianni is on the verge of being fired. He has guided the Eagles to the PlayOffs in each of the three seasons in charge, including the Super Bowl run last season that just came up short against the Kansas City Chiefs, but there has been a suggestion that the players are no longer playing for Sirianni and his Coaching staff.

Losing this Super Wild Card Weekend game on Monday in a prime time spot would perhaps be the final blow and Nick Sirianni needs a big performance from his team.

They are facing the NFC South Division Winners after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bounced back from a Week 17 defeat to see off the Carolina Panthers and enter the PlayOffs as the Number 4 Seed. After Tom Brady retired last season, the Buccaneers may have felt this would be something of a transitional season, but Baker Mayfield has played well enough to guide them back into the post-season.

However, Baker Mayfield has been banged up and so there has to be a question about whether he can do enough to expose the obvious issues the Eagles are having Defensively.

The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games so certainly have the momentum to get the better of the defending NFC Champions. They will need Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back though and that is largely down to the fact that Tampa Bay do not match up as well with the Eagles on the Offensive side of the ball.

A healthy Mayfield would have a chance to attack this Secondary, but the Buccaneers Offensive Line have not really found a way to establish a consistent running attack to balance things out for their Quarter Back. Even with a faltering Eagles Defensive Line in front of them, Tampa Bay may have issues getting Rachaad White going on the ground, although the Running Back is someone that can play a part in the passing game.

This will likely mean the pressure is on the Quarter Back to make the big throws to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and try and move the chains through the air. Baker Mayfield has shown he can do that, but he might be under a bit of pressure from the Eagles pass rush, while he will also have to be very aware of the turnovers that Philadelphia's Defensive Backs will be chasing.

He is 2-0 against the spread in previous PlayOff starts and that will offer Tampa Bay encouragement as they look to upset the Eagles. They failed to do that in the regular season when beating as a 5.5 point underdog in this Stadium back in September, but a lot has changed for Philadelphia since then and the spread reflects that.

Jalen Hurts has been banged up, but a big problem for the Quarter Back is that both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could be limited. Being without the top two Receivers would make things very difficult for Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, especially against this Buccaneers Defensive unit which has been a huge part of the run into the post-season.

While the Offensive Line struggles, Tampa Bay's Defensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can contain the Eagles running threat. Of course Jalen Hurts is capable of scrambling for First Downs of his own, although he may not be completely comfortable trying to do that with a banged up body.

The Eagles will do well to keep the Buccaneers pass rush from rattling Jalen Hurts and if the Wide Receivers are not quite right, this has the makings of an upset.

Mistakes made in the passing game have been an issue for Hurts down the stretch and he has to be thinking the same as Baker Mayfield in knowing how important it is to have a clean game.

This may mean less risks being taken, while the lean in the spread is with the Buccaneers having a start.

Instead of that, the selection is backing this game to finish under the total line set and that is largely down to the problems both Offensive units could have in finding consistency. Turnovers could be the major issue with short fields being created likely to result in a relatively high-scoring game, but you have to believe both game plans will be to avoid as much risk as possible knowing how important the turnover battle is expected to be.

Early forecasts suggest it will be wet and potentially windy, which makes the passing game that much harder to execute and both teams may look to pound the rock and control the clock and the tempo of the game. The reports suggesting Philadelphia are exploring potentially firing their Head Coach is not ideal a couple of days before a PlayOff game, and has me leaning with the upset, but the play is going to be back an 'under' in this total line set.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Philadelphia Eagles Under 43.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 70-55-4, + 11.03 Units

NFL Championship Game PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 29th)

The NFL Championship Games take place on Sunday as we finally learn the names of the two teams that will be competing in the Super Bowl in a fortnight from now.

Both games have the look of being fascinating viewing for the neutrals and I do think both could come down to the wire.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: If you are being honest, it has felt like the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) and San Francisco 49ers (15-4) have been on a collision course in the NFC. They have looked the two best team and strong wins in the Divisional Round means the two will meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

You have to really like the composition of both rosters and I do think it will be a very close, competitive game.

There are some weaknesses that the other side will be looking to exploit, but it would be a real surprise if the outcome is still not in doubt as we hit the two minute warning in the Fourth Quarter.

The 49ers have to be given credit for the way they have overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy continues to surpass expectations. Mr Irrelevant will only be the fifth rookie Quarter Back to play in a Championship Game, but Purdy has to overcome the fact that the previous four were all beaten and struggled with Interceptions.

Kyle Shanahan is not expected to lean on his Quarter Back and put him in a dangerous position to turn the ball over. Instead the 49ers will continue to lean on the running game and will scheme up a number of misdirections and runs from different players to try and keep the Philadelphia Eagles off-balance.

Despite the improvements made on the Defensive Line, the Eagles have still had one or two issues stopping the run as they would like and that can only be encouraging news for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey may be the lead Running Back, but Deebo Samuel is someone that the 49ers will line up in the backfield and he is capable of ripping off a big run or two at any time, which should keep Brock Purdy and company in front of the chains.

This is so important for the 49ers- Purdy can make quick throws to get the ball into the hands of his skill players, but the San Francisco 49ers will not want to be in a position where he has to allow routes to develop down field and then have to deal with the vicious Eagles pass rush.

Throwing against the Eagles Secondary is not going to be easy and the 49ers did have issues moving the ball consistently and scoring points against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round. As good as the Dallas Defensive unit have been, the Philadelphia Eagles have been even better and I think they will feel they can slow down the rookie Quarter Back as long as they can stay on top of the run game.

Brock Purdy will make the headlines as the rookie and the last selection in the NFL Draft, but he should be the first to tell anyone that listens how important the rest of the roster is. The San Francisco Defense turned the ball over a couple of times in the narrow win over Dallas last week and I do think that was vital to the outcome of the game and the 49ers will be looking to earn some extra possessions against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.

A Defensive Line that has been very strong against the run will be key for the 49ers, but there is one big factor that has been mentioned in the build up and that is the playmaking ability of Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back for the Eagles. Mobile Quarter Backs can be very tough to play and it has bene something of a relative weakness for the 49ers, although it is a theory that has not been tested much at all this season.

Jalen Hurts could be the key for the Eagles- that additional running threat may just give the 49ers pause for thought up front and playing in front of the chains is huge for the Eagles against a very tough Defensive unit on the other sidelines.

Slowing down the San Francisco pass rush would be a bonus of staying in manageable down and distance, while it would also just open up some of the passing lanes. A strong end to the season has given the 49ers Secondary some confidence, but the Eagles have a lot of top options in the Receiving unit and I do think Philadelphia can win against the Defensive Backs they are facing.

Both of these teams have positive trends behind them, but the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in the last ten games between them.

I think it will be close and there won't be much between the two teams, while turnovers are the one factor that you cannot really predict, yet will have a huge outcome in this one.

My feeling is that the home field advantage and the ability of Jalen Hurts to move the chains with his legs will ultimately make the difference for Philadelphia on the day. Both Defensive units are amongst the best in the NFL, while Brock Purdy may become the latest rookie Quarter Back to falter in the Championship Round of the PlayOffs.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Most were expecting the AFC Championship Game to have to be played on a neutral field and tickets were already being sold on that basis, but no one told the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) what script had been written. Instead they dominated the Buffalo Bills on the road in the Divisional Round and for a second season in a row they will head to Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game.

Last season the Bengals upset the home team Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) as a big underdog and Joe Burrow has continued his dominance of this opponent since heading into the NFL by making it 3-0 against the Chiefs during the 2022 regular season. It is no wonder the spread is much closer for this AFC Championship Game compared with when they met last year, while the additional reason is the high ankle sprain Patrick Mahomes is dealing with.

The Kansas City Quarter Back has been in practice, but most feel he is going to be limited at best once the real game starts.

That is obviously far from ideal for the Chiefs who know how important the mobility of Patrick Mahomes is to his overall game and losing that, or being limited, has proven to be hard to overcome in previous games when suffering with an injury. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line, but a part of that success is down to being able to scramble away from the pressure and I do think Patrick Mahomes is not going to be as strong in that aspect of his play in the AFC Championship Game.

When these teams met last month, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to run the ball really well and they may have to lean on that approach again if Andy Reid feels his Quarter Back is not at full health. However, there has been an improvement in the performance of the Cincinnati Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run as they have gotten healthier on this side of the ball.

Andy Reid is also a Head Coach that can lose interest in running the ball and it may be on Patrick Mahomes to lead the Kansas City Chiefs as he has done for much of his time with the team. The Quarter Back will have spaces in the Secondary to expose if he is able to put weight on his damaged ankle and Travis Kelce is expected to have a strong game for the Chiefs.

As I've said a few times, much will depend on how healthy Patrick Mahomes is and even a fully healthy Quarter Back might have had some issues beating Cincinnati.

He has yet to do that since Joe Burrow arrived in Cincinnati and the Bengals have momentum behind them after upsetting the Buffalo Bills on the road. The team are also getting healthier at the right time and the Offensive Line used the week between the Wild Card and Divisional PlayOff games to just work out how they were going to plug the gaps left by injured players.

That performance against the Buffalo Bills was really impressive from the Offensive Line which bullied the Bills up front and protected Joe Burrow when he stepped back to throw. The punishing moves to get Joe Mixon on track was huge in the win over Buffalo and stopping the run has been something of a weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs, which can only mean good things for the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

If they can establish the run, Joe Burrow and the passing game should be able to purr into action. There are some top Receiving options for a Quarter Back that has thrived in playing big games both in College and in the pro ranks, while running the ball anywhere nearly as well as they did last week will mean Joe Burrow has a touch more time in the pocket to make the big plays downfield.

Kansas City's Secondary have played well down the stretch, but they won't have come up against too many teams with as dynamic playmakers as the Cincinnati Bengals.

I do like the chances of seeing a repeat rather than revenge in this AFC Championship Game after the Bengals upset the Chiefs in January 2022. While this won't be the same level of upset, the Bengals are the underdog again and Joe Burrow and company will play with the motivation of wanting to prove people wrong again.

Patrick Mahomes is not expected to be at full health, which is a blow for the Kansas City Chiefs, while this has been a team that have regularly been over-rated by the odds compilers this season.

Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams, while they are also 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen against a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs have been struggling against the numbers and they are a surprising 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten at home. A poor record against the Bengals will be a mental obstacle to overcome and I think the road underdog can find a way to reach back to back Super Bowls with a victory at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

NFL Divisional Round PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 21-22)

It has been one of those weeks where life takes over and that means this thread is simply focusing on NFL Picks from the four Divisional Round games in the PlayOffs.

I think it could be a favourites weekend as you will be able to read below.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: One of the biggest PlayOff comebacks has helped the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) reach the Divisional Round of the post-season. Backing that up will be the challenge for Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the team after the young Quarter Back recovered from a horrendous start against the Los Angeles Chargers in the Super Wild Card game last week.

It was Trevor Lawrence who led the recovery, but the four Interceptions thrown in the first half left the Jaguars chasing the game against the Chargers.

Doing that against the Number 1 Seed in the AFC would be a much taller mountain to climb for the Jacksonville Jaguars as they prepare to visit the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3), a team who have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Everyone knows how strong Andy Reid has been as a Head Coach with time to set his team up for a game and the Kansas City Chiefs are very experienced in the PlayOffs.

This should mean any lead is managed better than the Los Angeles Chargers managed in the Super Wild Card Round and the Kansas City Chiefs piled up some huge numbers in a double digit win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the regular season.

They have nor provided much bulletin board material despite the big win over the Jaguars and Patrick Mahomes believes he is facing a much stronger team than the one he carved up before. However, I do think Mahomes is playing at a strong level and his Offensive unit have plenty of weapons even though they moved Tyreek Hill in the last off-season.

Some of the explosiveness has gone, but there are still some fast Receiving options here, while Travis Kelce could have a really strong game. The Chiefs are capable of establishing the run, but Head Coach Andy Reid seems to get board of that game plan and that should mean another gram watching Patrick Mahomes slinging the ball around the field.

It certainly helps that Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving around in the pocket to buy himself time when pressure has come, while the Offensive Line have also played really well. I think we will see the Quarter Back finding his skill players down the field and the spread is very going to come down to whether the Jaguars can pick themselves from an emotional win and go again.

This is never easy, especially not against a rested Number 1 Seed, but I do think Trevor Lawrence will have some success.

The Quarter Back could get some support from Travis Etienne running the ball and that will open things up for Lawrence as he looks to secure another upset in the PlayOffs. Establishing the run will also slow down the Kansas City pass rush and offer Trevor Lawrence the chance to use play-action to get into a position to take his shots down the field.

You have to credit how both of these Defensive units have played down the stretch, but I do think Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can pull away for another big PlayOff win.

They piled up huge numbers against the Jaguars in the regular season and won by double digits despite giving the ball away three times and also allowing Jacksonville to secure an onside kick.

Those extra possessions did not help the Jaguars stay with the Chiefs and I think a cleaner effort from Kansas City should put them in a position to avoid any backdoor cover.

I don't think Trevor Lawrence will begin this game as poorly as he did the Super Wild Card Round game, and I do think the Jaguars are fun to watch on this side of the ball. The Kansas City Chiefs have not really been a team that have been successful covering the spreads in each passing week, but they look capable of finding the plays to do that here.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two wins in the regular season has given the Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) the mental edge over their NFC East rivals the New York Giants (10-7-1). Beating any team three times in a single season is tough, but the rested Number 1 Seed in the NFC are the clear favourites to beat this rival once again.

The two week break for the Philadelphia Eagles looks to have come at a good time and they look so much healthier than they did before Week 18. Jalen Hurts is the obvious name when it comes to players with improved health, but the return of Lane Johnson is huge for the Offensive Line and I do think the Eagles will come with a real statement to make.

They will have to respect the New York Giants who deservedly upset the Minnesota Vikings in the Super Wild Card Round, although both of those teams are not as good as hyped up. New York are playing well, but this is a significant step up in level of competition and they were pretty well beaten when hosting the Eagles in the regular season.

You cannot read too much into the Week 18 game as the Giants were resting starters and the Eagles looked to take their foot off the gas when holding a big lead.

With the team looking strong, Philadelphia should be able to move the ball against the Giants Defensive unit, despite the improvement made by the latter. Having Jalen Hurts back at Quarter Back makes the rushing attack that much more effective for the Eagles and I do think they will be able to keep the team in third and manageable spots throughout this game.

Receivers like AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith give Jalen Hurts tremendous players to throw to and Dallas Goedert is another threat- with the Quarter Back capable of running out of the RPO, the Eagles should have the balance to keep the chains moving and having the Giants second guessing what to expect.

That puts all the pressure on the Offensive unit to try and keep the New York Giants competitive and Daniel Jones is coming off an appearance that is likely going to make him a very rich player in the years ahead. He does have a healthy Saquon Barkley behind him, but there is no doubt that the Giants are facing a much more confident Defensive team than the one they beat in Minnesota.

Perhaps New York will try to run the ball through Jones and Barkley, but this Eagles Defensive Line has been refortified and I think they will want to test the Quarter Back and his makeshift Receivers and see if they can keep the Giants in this Divisional Round game.

Once again the Giants cannot expect Daniel Jones to have the passing lanes he had last week against the Minnesota Vikings and throwing against this Philadelphia Secondary from obvious passing positions or situations is very difficult. The Eagles produce a fierce pass rush and they have some top players in the Defensive Backs positions to back up the rushers up front by locking down the Receivers facing up against them.

Daniel Jones will make some plays, but the Eagles should have a bit too much overall on both sides of the ball and they can pull away for a win and a cover.

I have to acknowledge how well the Giants have played in Philadelphia in recent years and they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six visits. They could easily secure the backdoor cover if the Eagles begin playing prevent Defense late in the game, but I like the Number 1 Seed to make a statement and win this one by double digits.

The Eagles are rested and looking healthy as they bid for a Super Bowl run and I think they can open their post-season with a solid win in the Divisional Round before hosting the NFC Championship Game next week.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This is officially going to be the game most remember for the first between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen after the really emotional way the regular season game had to be curtailed. Damar Hamlin is on the long road to recovery after suffering on the field late in the season, but the Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) and Buffalo Bills (14-3) will be focusing on trying to reach the AFC Championship Game having won tighter than expected home games in the Super Wild Card Round last week.

This time the teams will be meeting Buffalo where snow could potentially be a factor on Sunday. Conditions are cold as expected, but it should not be too windy and I think both Quarter Backs will be confident that the passing game will be able to operate as they would like.

As we have come to expect in the post-season, the running attack is the key for any team and I think that is particularly important for both teams in what should be the best game of the weekend.

Opponents have tended to allow the Bills running lanes in a bid to quieten down the passing attack over the course of the season, but that has not really worked that effectively. Establishing the run opens things up for the pass and Josh Allen is a Quarter Back who is happy to take what the Defensive schemes give him and he is capable of getting the ball out of his hands quickly, or pick up First Downs with his legs.

The Bills should be able to run the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are a middling run Defense, and they have players capable of breaking a big play or two on the ground. This should make things a little more comfortable for Josh Allen, especially as the Quarter Back has been a little more generous with his throws of late with key Interceptions leaving points on the board.

Josh Allen will also have a little more time in the pocket if his team are in third and manageable and that is also really important considering some of the pass protection breakdowns we have seen in recent games. Scrambling away from pressure will help, but third and manageable opens up the passing options and the Buffalo Bills should be able to move the ball through the air against this Cincinnati Secondary, especially with the skill players Buffalo have.

I expect Buffalo to have Offensive successes, but it may be a little more difficult for Joe Burrow and company. In the limited time on the field in their regular season game, Burrow and the Bengals were moving the ball pretty well, but injuries to the Offensive Line have decimated this unit and that is very difficult to overcome, regardless of how good your Quarter Back and skill players may be.

Once again the Bengals are going to be facing a Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run and forced teams to try and beat them through the air. It is unlikely that either Joe Mixon or Samaje Perine are able to have a lot of joy pounding the rock behind this makeshift Offensive Line and that could make things very dangerous for the Bengals.

This is also where the injuries on the Offensive Line means the depth of the Bengals is tested and being in third and long and hoping the pass protection holds up is going to be a huge challenge for Joe Burrow and the team. Von Miller may not be around, but the Bills still generate pressure up front and they have enough players on the Defensive Line that will feel they can break into the backfield past the second string Offensive Line players in front of them and put Joe Burrow under immense pressure.

An increasingly healthy Secondary is also capable of locking down Receivers with the pass rush getting to the Quarter Back and I think this could be the end of the line for Cincinnati.

No one will doubt this is a big line considering what we have seen from Joe Burrow in his time with LSU and Cincinnati, but the Offensive Line looks broken and that makes it very hard to imagine the Bengals having any consistent success. They don't have the same Offensive balance as the Buffalo Bills are likely to have and I think the home team will be able to win this by around a Touchdown mark.

The Bills have not been a very good home team to back of late, but the sharp money looks to be behind them and I will back Buffalo to reach the AFC Championship Game, which will either be hosted by the Bills or played on a neutral field if Kansas City win on Saturday.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: For the first time in the NFL PlayOffs, we will have had a Monday Night Football game in Super Wild Card Round- the question we all have to find out the answer to is how will a team react to what is ultimately a short week between PlayOff games?

The Dallas Cowboys (13-5) are the team facing that situation as they head to the San Francisco 49ers (14-4) for this Divisional Round game on Sunday afternoon. Last season it was the 49ers who upset Dallas as the road underdog, but this time they are favoured at home and San Francisco benefit from having two days more preparation time than the Cowboys.

A win at Tampa Bay was impressive, but the Buccaneers have not performed well throughout the 2022 season and this is a significantly tougher test for the Dallas Cowboys. Now they have to face a 49ers team coming in off a blow out and one that has won eleven in a row since a Week 7 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Brock Purdy has come in and managed the Offensive unit well enough, although all the credit has to be given to Head Coach Kyle Shanahan who has made sure his young Quarter Back is being put in a very strong position on the field. The 49ers are not asking their rookie to throw into tight windows, but simply getting the ball out of Brock Purdy's hands as quickly as possibly and making sure the skill players are in space to pick up plenty of yards after the catch.

This is going to be the toughest Defensive unit that Brock Purdy has seen in his short time in the starting role at Quarter Back, but I do think the 49ers match up pretty well with the Cowboys overall. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell have been very good at establishing the run behind this strong San Francisco Offensive Line and I expect those two Running Backs to get plenty of touches in this one.

Out of the two, Christian McCaffrey also provides a threat leaking out of the backfield, while Deebo Samuel is another the 49ers will use to carry the ball as they use a lot of misdirection to keep Defensive Lines guessing.

Moving the ball this way should make it easier for Brock Purdy to get the ball out to his Wide Receivers and I do think the San Francisco 49ers will find a way to get things moving against a strong Dallas Defensive unit.

There should also be a confidence in the Dallas Offensive unit after Dak Prescott's huge game in Tampa Bay- the Quarter Back was rarely bothered after the first couple of series and Prescott will be looking to pick up from where he left off.

However, Dak Prescott and the passing game is really sparked by the ability of the Cowboys to run the ball and this is going to be the pressing concern for Dallas on Sunday. The Buccaneers Defensive Line is one that is in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, but there aren't many better than the 49ers and I do think they can find a way to clamp down on Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard.

The latter is likely to be important as a safety blanket in the passing game, but Dak Prescott playing behind the chains is going to be a tough challenge for a Quarter Back who has been guilty of plenty of turnovers before the win over Tampa Bay in the Super Wild Card Round.

This will mean the Cowboys Offensive Line is going to be dealing with the huge amount of pressure that San Francisco can get up front, but Prescott has to be encouraged by one or two holes that have been evident in the 49ers Secondary. The problem is trying to exploit those from third and long situations and I think the game plan run by Dallas is going to make it difficult for them to have any consistent success and especially not on a short week.

Turnovers are going to be a huge part of any NFL game, but those are magnified in the PlayOffs and I do think Dak Prescott is likely to make more mistakes than Brock Purdy. The 49ers have been well coached and will put their Quarter Back in a stronger position overall and this should make the difference in the big game on Sunday.

San Francisco are 12-2 against the spread in their last fourteen home games, while the Dallas Cowboys are just 4-9 against the spread when playing on Sunday following a Monday Night Football outing.

Despite the win over Tampa Bay, I cannot ignore the fact that Dallas have not been as strong on the road and in outdoor conditions and I think it will lead to a late drive that sees San Francisco win and cover this line.

The Cowboys did beat San Francisco on the road when they last met in a game hosted by the 49ers in 2017, but that's not really going to be relevant to the players on Divisional Round Weekend in 2023.

A narrow win for the 49ers over Dallas last season in the PlayOffs is a game that could be on the mind of those involved on Sunday and I think a narrow San Francisco win and cover is most likely, possibly with a late Dak Prescott Interception making the difference on the day.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Super Bowl LV NFL Pick 2021 (February 7th)

I always find it surprising as to how quick the NFL season has been played when we reach the Super Bowl and after Sunday there will be seven months before we see more competitive Football.

Things may have changed significantly by then by in our personal lives, which should be closer to a return to normal than they are now, and the NFL 2021 season could have the seventeenth regular season game on the schedule. We will learn more about that in the coming weeks, while fans in London will surely be excited to hear that the NFL are looking to return the International Series games to the schedule too.

The new NFL season will get underway in the middle of March and we should have a lot more information as to the shape the 2021 season will take, while also hearing rumours about which teams could potentially be playing those International games. Free Agency will also get underway and that will change the shape of the Draft, but for now you can read my first Mock Draft here.

Before we can think about a new one, let's put the 2020 year in the books and that means completing the one game left this season. You can read my selection below for the Super Bowl which is being played in Tampa Bay this year and with a limited crowd inside the Stadium too.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: For the first time in the Super Bowl era, one of the teams competing will be playing in their home Stadium.

Unsurprisingly it is a team led by Tom Brady who continues to break down historical records and is looking for his seventh ring, but this time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The previous six came in his time with the New England Patriots, but Brady has erased the narrative that he is a Quarter Back who was a product of the Patriots system rather than one who would have been a top player regardless.

Now in his time with the Buccaneers Tom Brady is showing that he is capable of winning games in a different system, a relationship that has had some teething problems in the early part of the 2020 season. It does feel like that Brady and Head Coach Bruce Arians are on the same page and the Offensive weapons that are surrounding the veteran Quarter Back are thriving with a player who will get them the ball.

Winning a seventh ring will make it a very strong case for Tom Brady to be considered the greatest Quarter Back of all time, if he is not already, but beating Patrick Mahomes and the defending Champions Kansas City Chiefs will only add to the legacy.

Beating Kansas City won't be easy as they look to become the first team since Brady's New England to win back to back Super Bowls after working their way through the PlayOffs. The Chiefs have not always been at their dominant best and that is underlined by their poor record against the spread in 2020, but they did beat the Buffalo Bills without too many issues and look to have peaked at just the right time.

Most will put this game down to Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes, but it can be lost in the stories that the two Quarter Backs essentially are not playing against each other. Instead two strong Defensive Co-Ordinators will be looking to slow down very strong Offensive units and give their team the best possible chance of success.

Those Defenses have actually made some massive plays for both teams already in the post-season- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive unit have made some big plays against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers which set their team up to win those games, while the Kansas City Chiefs knuckled down hard against the Cleveland Browns as Mahomes exited the game, while giving up just 41 points in the two PlayOff wins.

One of the more under-reported issues that is facing the Kansas City Chiefs are the two injuries on the Offensive Line with both starting Tackles expected to miss out. Mitchell Schwartz has yet to be a confirmed absentee, but looks incredibly unlikely to have recovered from a back injury which has kept him out for over half a season, while Eric Fisher has been ruled out following an injury in the AFC Championship Game.

Losing both Tackles would hurt an Offensive Line against any team, but it is especially the case against this Tampa Bay pass rush which has been thriving and causing havoc throughout the post-season. The key for the Buccaneers and Defensive Co-Ordinator Todd Bowles is trying to get some pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but without having to use too many Blitzes.

They have the players to do that, but Bowles is also someone who is keen on dialling up the Blitz and I think it could be a case of living or dying by the sword in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is a Quarter Back who loves seeing the Blitz as he makes the right plays more often than not and I think the Chiefs will feel they can still have some success in this one.

It may not be as consistent with the likely pressure being felt from the edges, and it won't be easy for the Kansas City Chiefs to run the ball to slow it down either considering the success Tampa Bay's Defensive Line have been having in the post-season. Even then you have to note the holes in the Tampa Bay Secondary which can be attacked and Patrick Mahomes is about as good as any Quarter Back in the NFL, if not the top player at the position, and you would expect him to connect with some big time playmakers to move the stick in the big game.

Much is going to depend on how well Kansas City have been able to prepare their backups at the Tackle position- if they can give Mahomes enough time to scramble and find his playmakers the Chiefs should be able to have success in the Super Bowl, and Andy Reid is one of the best at preparing his team when having more time to do so.

The likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will have their big gains and Patrick Mahomes has been careful enough with the ball to be fully aware of the ball-hawking Tampa Bay Secondary whose turnovers have proven to be a major part of the reason they have been able to win at New Orleans and Green Bay. Pressure up front could lead to Mahomes having to throw the ball before he is ready which could give the Buccaneers Secondary a chance, but I like the Quarter Back and believe he will be ready to deal with what he sees.

Patrick Mahomes will have success, but I also think the Offensive Line issues will give the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a chance to get the ball back into the hands of Tom Brady and their own powerful Offense. However it should be said that the Defensive turnovers have been massively important for the Buccaneers and really set them up to win tight games against the Saints and the Packers and it might have hidden the fact that the Buccaneers have not been the most consistent calling plays and having long drives end in scores.

In the Championship Game Tom Brady had three Touchdown passes, but also threw three Interceptions and now he is facing a Steve Spagnuolo led Defensive unit. It will lead to memories of 2007 when the New York Giants upset Tom Brady and the New England Patriots thanks to the aggressive Defense sent out by Spagnuolo who will be looking to find a way to give the veteran something to see that he hasn't in his long career.

To make life easier for himself, I do think Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to make strong use out of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones at Running Back. While they have not been the best at establishing the run, the Buccaneers have done well enough to believe they can take advantage of the Kansas City Defensive Line which has been better at getting after the Quarter Back than pushing back against the run.

Putting Tom Brady in third and manageable spots opens up the playbook and Tampa Bay will feel it is always an advantage keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines for as long as possible. That will slow down some of the pass rush pressure that Kansas City have been able to generate, while it will also keep the Chiefs guessing and perhaps prevent the turnover creating Secondary from being able to step in front of some passes.

With the passing options Tampa Bay have at their disposal I do think they are going to be able to make some plays against this Kansas City Secondary. It is a talented team, but the Chiefs can sometimes bend and Tom Brady will likely be able to find a way to get the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, a talented group of Receivers who are almost impossible to shut down completely.

Steve Spagnuolo knows what works against Tom Brady though and I think he will have schemed up the Kansas City Defensive unit to maybe force a couple of mistakes from the veteran. For the main Tom Brady can avoid those, but he won't want to see the Buccaneers get too far behind the Kansas City Chiefs and that means making a faster start than when these teams met in the regular season.

For the first time in Super Bowl history we are not only having a team playing in their home Stadium, but this is also a repeat of a regular season game in the same Stadium. Back in Week 12 the Kansas City Chiefs came out firing and took a big lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before having to hold on for a 3 point win to move to 10-1 while dropping their hosts to 7-5.

The Buccaneers have not lost a game since then, but they have to be a little wary about taking on a Chiefs team that Intercepted Brady twice that day and had an almost 150 yard advantage when it came to the Offensive numbers produced. Turnovers won the day for the Chiefs too with a 2-1 advantage, although Tampa Bay did manage to take down Patrick Mahomes more times than Kansas City got to Tom Brady and this time the two Tackles will be missing.

I do think this is likely to be another competitive game even though the first meeting needed a big fightback from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to do that. I expect they would have learned something from that game and the Buccaneers were dropped to 7-5 on the day and look a much stronger all around team now.

It is the Offensive Line concerns that really make me believe the Buccaneers keep this close- they were lucky to cover for me in Week 12, but I think getting more than a Field Goal worth of points could be crucial in a game that could easily go down to the wire.

No one would be surprised if Patrick Mahomes pulled the win out of the fire, but Tom Brady won't go down without a fight either and I do think Tampa Bay have a real advantage being at home, especially in the current climate.

As good as the Chiefs clearly are, they are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the favourite. The Buccaneers won't mind being the underdog having won outright in the last two PlayOff spots despite being the dog, and they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.

Ironically Tampa Bay have had to win three road games to play at home on Super Bowl night- four previous teams have done that and the last three have all won the Super Bowl so I am going to roll with the points in the big game on Sunday. As I said I think the game will be tight and would not be surprised if it is decided by a Field Goal either way, so taking the hook with the underdog hosts looks good here.

The favourite has won the last two Super Bowls including Kansas City last season and it is hard to oppose Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid off a Bye, but the Offensive Line issues may restrict the scoring for the Chiefs and that will give Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to earn a backdoor cover at the worst, much like we saw in Week 12.

Since 2006 the team with the better record is only 1-11 against the spread in the Super Bowl, while those teams are just 2-10 straight up. I have to say that is a remarkable statistic and, while trends are there to be snapped, it does make it more comfortable going with the 'home' team who are the underdog this week.

At exactly three points it is a much harder spread to manage, so pay a bit of juice for the hook on Super Bowl Sunday.

MY PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.76 Bet365 (2 Units)

Championship Round: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 3.36 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)

Wild Card Round: 1-5, - 8.18 Units (12 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 17: 4-5, - 3.10 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)

Week 16: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 15: 3-4-1, - 2.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 14.88% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 3 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.75% Yield)

Week 13: 5-5, - 0.82 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.10% Yield)

Week 12: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 11: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-3-1, + 1.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.13% Yield)

Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)

Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)

Season 2020: 79-64-4, + 13.12 Units (296 Units Staked, + 4.43% Yield)