NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Divisional Round (Saturday 17th January-Sunday 18th January)

If you wanted to sum up how this season has seemed to go for the NFL Picks, seeing the late drama in a number of the Wild Card Games all working against the selections summed it up.

As a fan you couldn't help but be excited not only by what we were watching, but what kind of drama that may still await with the final eight teams now set.

However, for the selections, seeing the Rams and Packers blow big leads on their way to non-covers or outright defeats and then followed by the Jacksonville Jaguars losing deep in the Fourth Quarter and the Eagles somehow failing to win their own games on Sunday, it all added up to another bitter blow in what has been a poor season for the selections.

At this point, I would be happy to see more quality games and there is no doubt that picking a winner remains incredibly difficult.

The Buffalo win in Jacksonville is huge, but they have to play a well rested Number 1 Seed on the road, while the Seattle Seahawks look well balanced, although who would trust Sam Darnold in a really big moment?

Out of all the teams remaining, the Los Angeles Rams look best on both sides of the ball, but a road game in Chicago in January is always going to bring its challenges.

New England's win over the Los Angeles Chargers was a solid one, but Drake Maye will need to be better and the Patriots continue to look like a team that is overachieving thanks largely to the schedule that has been given to them.

As for the others, there are plenty of plusses and minuses around them and this really feels like a small window for many of those teams as far as Super Bowl success is concerned with a stronger looking field expected to be involved in twelve months time.

Over the next couple of days, the Divisional Round of the Playoffs will be completed and that means there are now just seven games left in the 2025 season.

The Picks from the four games to be played can be read below, although it has been the kind of season when picking the other side might make sense for readers.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos Pick: You could make a reasonable argument to say the winner of this AFC Divisional Round Game will be the favourite to reach the Super Bowl.

The Buffalo Bills (13-5) would have to sweep their way through two more road games, but you would likely set them as favourite against either New England or Houston even in that spot. First they have to beat the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, although the well rested Denver Broncos (14-3) will feel they have something to prove having been completely crushed by the Bills in the post-season twelve months ago.

With the spread as short as it is, the Broncos will be taking plenty of motivation from the lines from Vegas too.

Coming into this Divisional Round after a Bye Week has to be a bonus and you also cannot ignore how well Sean Payton has prepared his team with rest. This is also a relatively short week for the Buffalo Bills who were winning on Sunday in the Wild Card Round, and that is something the Broncos have to make count.

However, there are questions to answer for the Number 1 Seed and most are in relation to the Offensive problems they have had for much of the season. The Broncos have found a way to win games, which cannot be dismissed, but Bo Nix and company have been erratic to say the least and Sean Payton was not very happy with the Week 18 efforts from his players on this side of the ball.

Earlier this season, the Broncos Offensive Line were really powering things, but that has not been the case in recent games. JK Dobbins has been a miss and is set to be absent on Saturday, even as he continues his rehab on the field, while too many mistakes have been committed by the Linemen which has kept the Broncos behind the chains.

Running the ball against the Bills has been a successful game plan for much of the last several months, but you have to believe they are going to be looking to force Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. The Quarter Back is one who is happy to scramble for First Downs when he has needed to do that, but this Buffalo team are well aware of those kinds of players thanks to Josh Allen and so there is a belief the Bills can clamp down on the run.

Trevor Lawrence did show what can be achieved by throwing 200 yards and adding 31 rushing yards so there is some encouragement for Box Nix, although he has to hope the Broncos can keep him in front of the down and distance.

We have seen Bo Nix produce some very good looking numbers from the Quarter Back position, but the last couple of starts have not been amongst those. This Bills Secondary has played well over the course of the season and there will be a feeling in Buffalo that they match up well with the Broncos on this side of the ball, which has to offer plenty of encouragement to the team.

The Bills also have Josh Allen.

Despite multiple injuries, Josh Allen willed the Bills to a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars as looks to make sure the absence of the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is not a missed opportunity for his team. The Quarter Back is going to put it all on the line, but he has unfortunately lost a couple more Receivers and that leaves Buffalo stretched, which makes things that much tougher against an elite Defensive unit like the one Denver have.

Like the opposition, Denver have to feel they know how to play a mobile Quarter Back pretty effectively and they will not want Allen to beat them with his legs.

James Cook can have some success running the ball and there is a suggestion that the slight edge at the Line of Scrimmage is with the Buffalo Offensive Line rather than the Denver Defensive Line. This is going to be the key to the outcome of the game with the Bills looking to keep the team in front of the chains and somewhat negate the powerful pass rush the Broncos bring onto the field.

Any time Josh Allen and company are behind the chains, you have to feel the Denver pass rush will have a big impact on the game and especially with Buffalo being down multiple Receivers. There are still those that can make plays, but this is a productive Denver Secondary and quicker throws may be the best way to move the chains.

The Broncos Secondary ended the season looking very comfortable, but Josh Allen is a special Quarter Back and that is what may give the road team a narrow edge.

Turnovers are going to be absolutely crucial to the final outcome and this looks a game that will come down to the wire.

Number 1 Seeds have tended to struggle in this spot when facing a 6 or 7 Seed, while those teams who earned wins on the road in the Wild Card Round have a strong covering record in the Divisional Round.

Effectively this is a game that is set as a pick 'em and hosts have tended to find a way through to the Championship Round, albeit not necessarily with a very good covering record. The outright winner is likely to cover either way and the narrow edge has to be with the superior Quarter Back, while the Bills look like they match up pretty well with this Denver team.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: A Bye was earned by beating the San Francisco 49ers (13-5) in Week 18 of the regular season, but the Number 1 NFC Seed Seattle Seahawks (14-3) have suffered a scare.

On Thursday, it was announced that Sam Darnold had been placed on the injury report and considered Questionable to start this Divisional Round Game, although the Quarter Back has downplayed suggestions that he would not suit up.

Two regular season games were split by these NFC West rivals, although the second one was the most important with the Seahawks beating the 49ers on the road and securing the top Seed. However, San Francisco can take confidence from the win in Seattle back in Week 1, while there will be little sympathy for an injury suffered by the hosts considering what the 49ers have been through in the campaign.

Another one was suffered last week in the Wild Card upset of the Philadelphia Eagles- George Kittle is out for the rest of the Playoff run, while Fred Warner is not going to be ready to suit up this week as he was hoping.

Brock Purdy found enough connections with his makeshift Receivers to earn passage past the Philadelphia Eagles, but now has to lead the San Francisco 49ers to find a way to move the ball against a very good Seattle Defensive unit. Just two weeks ago, San Francisco had fewer than 200 Offensive yards against Seattle, although the return of Trent Williams is a big boost for the Offensive Line.

Trent Williams is not at 100%, but it may help in the run blocking against a stubborn Seattle Defensive Line.

Getting anything from Christian McCaffrey on the ground would be considered a boost for the San Francisco Offense, although it is clear that the Running Back is going to be most effective as a catcher coming out of the backfield.

There has to be a huge amount of respect for how the Seahawks have played on the Defensive side of the ball, but Kyle Shanahan will have used the short week to at least find some ways to get his team to move the chains.

The short week is far from ideal- the 49ers are also coming off a game on the East Coast, but they will feel they can have a little more success than they produced in the Week 18 defeat.

Importantly the San Francisco 49ers look capable of keeping this one close on the scoreboard with the way they match up with the Seahawks on the other side of the ball.

If Sam Darnold is limited, that will certainly help, while an appearance from Drew Lock would certainly tighten the margins.

Everything that is happening in the Quarter Back room should only have strengthened the approach that the Seahawks will take to the game- they are going to pound the rock over and over again against a 49ers Defensive Line that has been worn down by injuries and who continue to allow teams to have considerable success on the ground.

Two weeks ago, Seattle had 180 rushing yards against the 49ers and they will be looking to pick up from where they left off and just keep the pressure on this NFC West rival.

That should keep the pressure from the Quarter Back, regardless of who it may be, and gives the Seahawks the edge in the straight up market, but perhaps not the spread.

A strong Head Coach like Kyle Shanahan will have new looks for the Seahawks and San Francisco may only need 13 points to earn a cover.

For all of the problems San Francisco have had, they only allowed 13 points in the Week 18 loss and they allowed the same number when they met in Week 1.

Brock Purdy is expected to be better with Trent Williams on the Offensive Line and road teams are 4-2 against the spread when facing Divisional rivals in this Round of the Playoffs.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points are also 29-17-1 against the spread in the Divisional Round of the post-season.

Number 1 Seeds have had poor records covering in recent years in the Divisional Round, as already mentioned, and the San Francisco 49ers are strong enough to keep this one competitive, even in a losing effort.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: Two of the top Defensive units in the NFL meet in this Divisional Round Game on Sunday when the New England Patriots (15-3) host the Houston Texans (13-5).

They were both set as relatively narrow favourites in the Wild Card Round, but both the Patriots and Texans dominated behind these Defensive units.

However, it is Houston who have drawn the short straw by having to play on Monday Night Football in the Wild Card Round and that means having to compete on the road on a short week.

Much is going to depend on the Houston Defensive unit and they will take a huge amount of encouragement from the Drake Maye struggles against a more than competent Los Angeles Defense last week. The Texans will feel they have an even better unit than the Chargers and will be looking to confuse the young Quarter Back.

Running the ball is going to be the first target for the New England Patriots and they have had success doing that behind this Offensive Line, although rarely going up against a unit like this Houston Defensive Line. This battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be important in cold conditions and the Patriots will be keen to place Drake Maye in positive yardage situations, while also being able to slow down the fierce Houston pass rush.

There will be opportunities for Maye and the New England passing game if they are able to stay in third and manageable spots, although nothing is going to come easy in these conditions.

It will be tough for the hosts, but it is also going to be hugely challenging for the road team who are used to much warmer conditions than they are likely to find in Foxboro.

One of the big criticisms of the Houston Texans has been the performance of the Offensive unit and there is pressure on them to find enough points to help out the Defense.

The Texans will be looking to do the same as the Patriots and that is establish the run, but the Offensive Line have not played at the same level as the one New England will run out on the field. So while the Patriots will have belief in what they can do at the Line of Scrimmage, it may be tougher for the Houston Texans against a Patriots Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run.

CJ Stroud may be able to move around to clear away from the pass rush pressure, which can be something to slow this New England rush, but he is also going to be severely challenged when it comes to throwing against this Secondary.

Not only does it look like Christian Gonzalez is going to suit up for New England, but Houston are set to be without Nico Collins who is the big target for Stroud and that could make things very difficult.

The Fumbles in Pittsburgh were not punished and the Quarter Back is going to have to be close to his best if he is going to lead the Texans to a second consecutive road win.

There is a positive history for those teams chasing second road wins in succession in the Divisional Round, while it has been noted that hosts have been good at winning, but not necessarily covering.

However, the slight edge has to be with the New England Patriots to be able to do enough, as they did in the Wild Card Round, and the feeling is that Drake Maye can out-perform CJ Stroud in a game that could come down to the passing game.

Turnovers could change the entire momentum of this game, which is going to be close, but the New England Patriots can cover even in a relatively low-scoring win to progress to the AFC Championship Game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears Pick: If you were to suggest the most likely winner of the Super Bowl because of the balance of the team, you may point out the Los Angeles Rams (13-5) as the team to beat.

However, a couple of slips late in the season has meant the Rams have had to enter the post-season as one of the Wild Card teams and has meant having to win at least twice on the road.

Despite an injury suffered by Matthew Stafford, which had slowed down the Rams and looked to be a costly issue in the eventual win over the Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles have made it through to the Divisional Round.

Now they have to pack the bags and travel to the Chicago Bears (12-6) who produced a historic Playoff comeback to beat the Green Bay Packers last week.

As you may expect in January, it was always going to be cold in Chicago.

However, the temperatures are going to be exceptionally cold on Sunday evening when this game kicks off and there will be snow flurries too, which is going to make it very challenging for Matthew Stafford and the Rams.

The Quarter Back has huge experience of playing in cold weather having been a part of the Detroit Lions in the NFC North before heading to a warmer climate in Los Angeles. That will help Matthew Stafford prepare, mentally if nothing else, but even compared with previous standards of road games in Chicago and Green Bay, this is going to be something unique.

Some of the Rams have already been downplaying the weather, but it is a huge factor in this one.

In normal conditions or in a Dome setting, you would really like how the Rams match up with the Chicago Bears on the Offensive side of the ball.

While they will usually go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them, the Rams Offensive Line have been very productive at setting the tempo by winning at the Line of Scrimmage and putting a strong running game on the board. The likelihood is that the Los Angeles Rams will want to keep the ball on the ground at times in the conditions expected and they are expected to have success when they do that.

This Offensive Line also gives Matthew Stafford protection and he would carve up this Chicago Secondary, but again the weather is going to be a factor when it comes to throwing and catching.

After the huge comeback put together by the Bears in the Wild Card win over rivals Green Bay, Ben Johnson and the fans will have a lot of faith in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. Some of the Bears Receivers have also stepped up and Williams plays behind an Offensive Line that will offer him some time, although the same problems with the conditions will have to be overcome.

Much like the opposite unit, the Chicago Offensive Line have been very strong this season and they have been important in opening up the running lanes for the Bears.

Recent outings have been more challenging, but the Bears will have noted the success teams have had in the last few games against this Rams Defensive Line. Keeping that powerful Offensive unit on the sidelines to really feel the cold would be a huge win for the Chicago Bears and there is every chance that they can put a game plan together to keep this one close.

Sean McVay has admitted he will be speaking to his close friend Matt LaFleur, who happens to be the Green Bay Head Coach, but ultimately this is a Head Coach with a Super Bowl Championship on the resume. You have to expect the Rams will have a good plan, even in the poor conditions, but they are a road favourite and those teams are just 1-4 against the spread in the last five Divisional Round Games in that situation.

The Rams do look like having all of the ingredients to win another Super Bowl, but having a hook over a key number 3 makes the Chicago Bears worthy of backing to avoid a blowout defeat.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 48-63, - 20.05 Units (111 Units Staked, - 18.06% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks- Divisional Round 2025 (Saturday 18th January-Sunday 19th January)

The home teams dominated the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs and there are three big favourites hosting in the Divisional Round.

However, two of those are playing after Bye Weeks and so the road underdogs travelling to Kansas City and Detroit may hope that their own rhythm gives them a chance for the upset.

In reality it is going to be tough for any of the first three road teams going up, but the last game of the Divisional Round between Buffalo and Baltimore could be an epic... It is the game of the weekend and one that all are looking forward to as we finalise the last four teams standing ahead of the Championship Sunday coming up.

The NFL Picks moved back in a positive direction with a 4-2 return last week, but there is some frustration with the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew their chances to beat the Washington Commanders.

That was the sole home defeat in the Round, but it is still always nice to return a positive number and the hope is to kick on through the Divisional Round as we move into that time of the season when there are just seven games left until September.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC might be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoff after a Bye Week, but they will both be playing on Saturday.

First up is the AFC Number 1 Seed the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) who are looking to make history over the coming weeks.

There is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of their dynasty with three Super Bowl rings in the last of the five seasons. However, they can really cement their names in the history of the NFL by winning the Super Bowl for a third year in a row, something that has never been done before despite some of the top teams that have been around.

Even winning consecutive Super Bowl Championships has placed Kansas City amongst some of the very best teams in history. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Andy Reid and Quarter Back Patrick Mahomes for continuing to motivate themselves for more, but this season there has to be a lot of credit given to the Chiefs Defensive unit for the incredible record put together.

The Chiefs have rode their luck at times, but they are going to be very tough to beat with Arrowhead behind them.

Resting their starters in Week 18 does mean it has been a considerable layoff for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is a team that have become used to earning Byes in the post-season. Last year was very different and the Chiefs got hot at a very good time, while there won't be many rushing to back the Houston Texans (11-7) to earn a second upset in a row.

Winning as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round will have given the Texans a boost, but this is a very tough game for them on the road and in what is expected to be very cold temperatures at Arrowhead. CJ Stroud has shown his qualities since entering the NFL, but one of those has not been performing in these kind of cold weather temperatures and it will be tough for the Texans, a Dome team.

The Texans will need the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit to make some plays, but the Defensive unit have to pick up from where they left off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Houston Defensive Line will feel they can contain the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground and put all of the pressure on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, although this is a Quarter Back who thrives when he has the game on his shoulders.

It has not been a vintage season for Patrick Mahomes and this Texans Secondary have played well behind some of the pressure they have generated up front. In saying all that, you know Mahomes is going to scramble and extend plays and he has a huge amount of trust in all of his Receivers that he will keep drives moving.

A key for the Texans is to try and generate pressure with the front four and see if they can leave when in coverage, but it will be tough to completely lock down Patrick Mahomes. Instead the Defensive unit have to try and give their Offense a chance in this one by at least stalling some Kansas City drives and keeping their team in the game.

Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the Houston Texans and so the play-calling has perhaps become more reliant on the run rather than CJ Stroud and the pass. Joe Mixon has been having a strong end to the season for Houston and the encouraging part, as far as they are concerned, is that the Chiefs Defensive Line has been allowing teams to move the chains.

They may try and strengthen up front to force CJ Stroud to have to take to the air with the main threat being Nico Collins, and there have been one or two holes that the Quarter Back may feel he can exploit in the Secondary.

Avoiding turnovers is absolutely key for Houston, who were beaten here at Arrowhead just days before Christmas. That was a game where Kansas City only had a little over 60 yards more than Houston and it was a competitive game for a long time, which is the expectation of this Divisional Round game.

You would think having the Bye has given the home teams a big advantage in the Divisional Round, but that has not been the case and those teams are 3-5 against the spread.

And for all of Patrick Mahomes' qualities, he is just 22-32-3 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 7 points. For a long time the Chiefs have done what is needed to win games, but blowing teams away is not really high on their list of agendas in each week and there is every chance they begin to look ahead to the AFC Championship Game if getting into a two score lead.

The cold weather continues to be a concern, but CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as the underdog and the Texans can control the Line of Scrimmage, which should allow them to keep this close on the scoreboard at the very least.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Pick: In Week 18 the Detroit Lions (15-2) were able to get the better of Divisional rivals Minnesota for a second time in the regular season and that secured the NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A Bye through to the Divisional Round has given the Lions an opportunity to rest and allow other players to recover from injuries so they can take part in what Detroit are hoping is a maiden run to the Super Bowl.

Home advantage is secured through to the Super Bowl, but there is some pressure on the Detroit Lions who have made it very clear that winning the Championship is their only ambition for the season.

Next up is the Washington Commanders (13-5) who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road last week, although the mistakes made by the Buccaneers at the end of that Wild Card game will haunt them through the off-season.

Jayden Daniels made some big plays late on, as he has throughout his rookie season, but it has been tough for rookie Quarter Backs to string wins together in the Playoff. The Commanders feel they have a special player behind Center, but this is another big test for Jayden Daniels and against the team many feel has been the best in the Conference all season.

Even as injuries have piled up, credit has to be given to the Lions for finding a way to clamp down on Offenses they have been facing.

The bend, don't break concept has worked for the Lions, but the first port of call for Detroit will be for the Defensive Line to play the run a little better than they have in recent games. Trying to keep the Commanders in third and long will give the Lions an opportunity to try and rattle Jayden Daniels, although the young Quarter Back has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and make his plays down the field even under pressure.

The Lions Secondary did give Sam Darnold problems in Week 18, but this is arguably a tougher test and they have given up enough yards through the air to offer Jayden Daniels and company plenty of encouragement.

Washington's own Defensive Line have played well in recent games and that is going to be key for them in this big road game in the Divisional Round. However, they have rarely been up against a powerful Offensive Line like the one that Detroit will be bringing onto the field.

David Montgomery is back and the 'Sonic and Knuckles' combination when coupled with Jahmyr Gibbs will make it very difficult for the Commanders to keep tabs on the Lions.

That same Offensive Line has offered plenty of pass protection for Jared Goff too and giving the Quarter Back a bit of time in the pocket could see the Lions make some big plays down the field. The ability to run the ball opens up play-action, quick strike Football and the Lions are going to be very confident behind Jared Goff.

The Quarter Back has a 34-13-1 record against the spread when playing indoors for the Detroit Lions, while the game plan for this one should be well executed for a Head Coach who has an 11-2 record against the spread when having preparation time.

Historically the Lions have not been a team you want to back to cover big spreads, especially when facing teams with a winning record. However they covered in the post-season last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a biggish favourite and Detroit might just show their talent edge in this one against the overachieving Washington Commanders.

This is a big line though and Jayden Daniels can do enough to secure a backdoor cover with his own ability at Quarter Back.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points have a 26-17-1 record against the spread in this Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the Commanders can do enough to avoid the blowout. Teams that missed the Playoff the previous year have a 28-14 record against the spread in the Divisional Round and Washington may make use of this big number, even if it means opposing strong records that Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have put together.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: When you have a Head Coach and a Quarter Back who have won the Super Bowl together, you will always have a chance to make an impact in the post-season.

Despite being set as the underdog, the Los Angeles Rams (11-7) crushed the fourteen win Minnesota Vikings and they have been rewarded with a trip across the country for this big Divisional Round game in the Playoff.

If the regular season game is anything to go by, the Rams will know how tough this assignment would be in perfect conditions. However, the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) are going to be hosting in cold, snowy weather and that should suit the NFC East Champions who were able to beat Green Bay pretty comfortably here last week.

The conditions won't be something unfamiliar to the Eagles and that gives them a mental edge compared with the Los Angeles Rams who have to go through multiple time zones and play on the road, while also coming out of a warmer climate than what they have to play through in the Divisional Round.

Playing in wet, cold conditions also means a team will look to lean on the Offensive Line and the Philadelphia Eagles will have been keen to do that anyway. You can't blame the Eagles who have an Offensive Line that helped pile up 314 yards on the ground in the road win in Los Angeles.

Saquon Barkley has had a memorable season, but this is a smart player who will do the right thing for the team rather than for his own personal statistics. That really does make it easier for the Offensive Line to want to block for their Running Back, while Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of tucking and running himself.

Stopping the run has been a problem for the Rams and what many believe is an undersized Defensive Line and they are not expected to have a lot of success at pushing back against this Eagles Offensive Line. With the conditions expected, the Eagles will be comfortable moving the ball on the ground and then using the pass intermittently to the big Receivers that are aiding Jalen Hurts.

Los Angeles would love to have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball around the Stadium, but that might be tough in these conditions.

Kyren Williams have been playing really well for the Rams, but he is going to have a tough day in the office if trying to establish the run against this Eagles Defensive Line. So much of the success that Philadelphia have had this season has been thanks to the massive improvements made on the Defensive side of the ball and the Secondary have really been able to clamp down on the passes to make it very tough to sustain drives against them.

Matthew Stafford will have some time in the pocket, but throwing in snowy conditions will not be easy and especially not against this Defensive unit and the Philadelphia Eagles may just roll on.

Jalen Hurts does have a 15-7 record against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning record, while he is 3-0 against the spread at home in the Playoff.

You have to respect Sean McVay and his abilities as a Head Coach, but those teams that have earned a blowout win in the regular season have been very good at covering in the Playoff rematch and the expectation is that the Eagles frank the road win they secured over the Los Angeles Rams in November.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Most neutral fans will easily point to the final game of the Divisional Round as being the one they are looking forward to the most and both the Buffalo Bills (14-4) and Baltimore Ravens (13-5) hold genuine Super Bowl ambitions.

The two teams had been set as big favourites to win in the Wild Card Round when hosting, and the Bills and Ravens responded in kind. That has only increased the appetite to see this big Divisional Round game, which is a rematch of an early regular season meeting.

On that occasion it was the Baltimore Ravens hosting and they crushed the Buffalo Bills so will be confident in this rematch- as mentioned in the Rams-Eagles preview, teams that hold blowout wins in the regular season over a Playoff foe have actually performed really well in the second meeting.

On paper it does look like a tough match up for the Buffalo Bills, especially when they have the ball, and so there is going to be a lot of pressure on Quarter Back Josh Allen. The Bills would love to be able to run the ball, but the Offensive Line have not been playing with dominance down the stretch and running the ball against this Baltimore Defensive Line has proven to be tough throughout the 2024 season.

Josh Allen can tuck it and run, but the Ravens have their own dual-threat Quarter Back and so you have to believe the Defensive players understand how best to contain the Bills on the ground.

There are spaces in the Secondary to be exploited, even if the Baltimore Ravens Secondary have stepped up in recent games. However, this is Josh Allen at home and the confidence to spread the ball around means it will be tough for the Ravens to stop the Bills completely, even if they will have an edge keeping the home team in third and long spots.

Pushing around the Baltimore Defensive Line might not be something that the Buffalo Offensive Line can expect to do with consistency, but the bigger test may be in keeping Josh Allen upright and earning him the time to throw the ball down the field. The Bills have done that in recent games, but this time they may not be in front of the chains and the Ravens have a pass rush that have found a way to get home.

Baltimore will be expecting a bigger test from the Bills Offensively having restricted them to 10 points in the regular season game, while they may also believe this Buffalo team are going to be looking to prove themselves after losing 35-10. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson crushed the Bills on the ground and the Offensive Line showed that they are still very capable of wearing teams down up front as they proved against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card win.

The Bills Defensive Line have played well down the stretch, but this is a significant test for them and Buffalo have to win at the Line of Scrimmage. Winning in this sense means just forcing Lamar Jackson to have to throw out of Third and Six or Third and Seven and see if they can make plays through the air to change the momemtum.

Zay Flowers has been out of practice and remains Questionable for the Divisional Round game, but Lamar Jackson has others capable of filling the void as long as he is not expected to push the boat out with his passes. Much like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson has been given a lot of protection from the Offensive Line and that has given him the time to attack teams through the air, although this Buffalo Secondary has played well.

It has all of the makings of a really good game, but the edge has to be with Baltimore who might just dominate the Line of Scrimmage. In close games that could make all of the difference to just flip the field, or create a turnover or two, and the Ravens can frank their big regular season win with another over Buffalo.

Lamar Jackson has had his issues in the post-season, but he won't mind being favoured after the Ravens had initially opened up as the road underdog. The Quarter Back has a perfect 6-0 record against the spread when that has happened previously, while Lamar Jackson has an impressive 26-9 record against the spread if the line is set between plus and minus 3 points.

You have to think that Josh Allen and the Bills will be very aware that they are the home underdog, despite having the better record, and that could inspire the home team. However, the match up looks to be in favour of the Baltimore Ravens and they can be the one that most likely has to travel to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game next weekend.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.99 Units

NFL Championship Games PlayOff Picks 2024 (January 28th)

There was one 'upset' in the Divisional Round of the NFL PlayOffs when the Kansas City Chiefs got the better of the Buffalo Bills, but fans of the Green Bay Packers will be wondering how their young team blew a huge opportunity to knock off the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

Jordan Love's mistake at the end was costly, and one that he would love to have back. A turnover in desperation time is one thing, but throwing a Pick across your body with time on the clock and a couple of Time Outs was maddening and something Love and the Packers will think about in the off-season.

He showed enough to be rewarded with a new contract and there are plenty of positives for Green Bay to take into the 2024 season.

However, it is the two Number 1 Seeds who will be hosting the Championship Games on Sunday and conspiracy theorists will believe they know who will be facing off in the Super Bowl.

Over the last couple of seasons, the preview for the Super Bowl has featured two distinct colours which have ended up representing the two teams involved. For this year, the colours are red and purple and so many believe that means the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are 'scripted' to meet in Vegas in a couple of weeks from now.

Others suggest the NFL are desperate for Taylor Swift to be at the Super Bowl, and not as the Half Time show in this case, but Football is played on the field and it is no surprise the top Seeds are both favoured having home field advantage and also having been through one Bye in the PlayOffs.

After a 3-1 Divisional Round for the NFL Picks, a very strong season has already been secured for the selections made on the page.

Three more games are to come though and the ambition is to finish up with three more winners, beginning with the selections from the Championship Games which can be read below.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The AFC Championship Game is not being hosted at Arrowhead Stadium this season, but the Kansas City Chiefs are there again and that experience makes them very dangerous.

While there were some question marks about Patrick Mahomes and how his Chiefs would handle playing a road PlayOff game for the first time in the Divisional Round, all were answered positively as they got the better of the Buffalo Bills in a big game again.

After taking out the Number 2 Seed, the Kansas City Chiefs are now travelling to the Number 1 Seeded Baltimore Ravens, who had a much easier time of it in the Divisional Round as they crushed the Houston Texans. Playing the early game on Saturday compared with the Kansas City Chiefs going out last on Sunday will certainly tip some of the favour towards the Baltimore Ravens, but there is an immense amount of respect for the Chiefs and all they have achieved.

There are other factors in their favour- the Ravens have not left home since Christmas Day, while the Chiefs are in the tough spot of having to play back to back road games in the PlayOffs. For all of their experience and achievements, this is a first for Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City since he took over as the starting Quarter Back and it will be a considerable challenge.

Winning in Buffalo was huge, but it has come at a cost for Kansas City who will be without Joe Thuney on the Offensive Line. There is still a minor hope that Thuney will be able to suit up, but he is not trending in the right direction and that would be a huge blow to the Chiefs Offensive Line and Mahomes himself.

Andy Reid is not a massive fan of running the ball over and over, but the Chiefs showed they are willing to do what is needed when they beat the Bills in the Divisional Round. It has been one of the weaknesses of this very strong Baltimore Defensive unit and the importance of being able to establish the run will not be lost on anyone associated with Kansas City.

They have the capabilities of running the ball, although the absence of Joe Thuney will obviously have an impact on that. Losing their Left Guard may also mean the Chiefs are not able to keep the four man pass rush pressure generated by the Ravens from penetrating into the backfield and forcing Patrick Mahomes to get off his spot and have to move around before targeting Receivers down the field.

Unlike last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are not going to be facing a banged up Secondary in the Championship Game- Marlon Humphrey is back in practice and should be ready to go for the Ravens. This is going to put some pressure on the Receivers, who have been inconsistent all season, especially as they are facing a Baltimore Secondary who have been as good as any in the NFL over the course of the season.

So once again it comes back to running the ball effectively and at least giving Patrick Mahomes an opportunity- he will make all of the throws needed, but his Receivers are likely to be more confident in converting those short yardage positions than having to set longer routes and keeping concentration amongst a lot of contact.

The Baltimore Defensive unit have been very good at creating turnovers in contact and so it could be a potentially challenging day Offensively for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Unlike previous seasons, the Chiefs can rely on on the Defensive unit a lot more to make up for the Offensive struggles we have seen throughout the season.

Lamar Jackson had some PlayOff negatives to address last week in the Divisional Round and he and the Ravens did that very well against the Houston Texans. As well as the Texans had been playing Defensively, this is another test for the Baltimore Ravens as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs are one of the top Defensive units in the NFL, but you may not always appreciate that with the Offense making the headlines. However, they have had real issues when it comes to stopping the run, including last week against James Cook, and this could be a real problem against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.

Injury has robbed the Ravens of their top two Running Backs, but they have still found a way to pound the rock behind this Offensive Line. Having someone like Jackson at Quarter Back helps and it will have been noted that Josh Allen was plenty effective when tucking the ball and running with it, which is what the Baltimore Quarter Back will do on designed plays too.

Running the ball should mean it is harder for Chris Jones and the Kansas City pass rush to impact the game, while also making it easier for Jackson when he does drop back to throw the ball down the field. The Ravens may not have the stand out names in the Receiving corps, but Zay Flowers has shown his worth and another week of practice should have Mark Andrews back on the field.

This is a huge boost for the Ravens and the home team can win this game.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is not an easy decision- he has won eight of eleven starts when set as the dog, including last week, while Mahomes is 5-0 against the spread when given more than a Field Goal worth of points.

A backdoor cover orchestrated by one of the best at Quarter Back cannot be ruled out, but the injury to Joe Thuney does really hurt this Chiefs team Offensively. They also match up poorly with the Ravens on the other side of the ball and Lamar Jackson's win over the Houston Texans will have just eased the PlayOff pressure he may have felt before the game was played.

Lamar Jackson has looked after the ball when throwing in recent games, but turnovers are likely going to be very important and Baltimore cannot afford to fumble their place in the Super Bowl.

The Ravens have enjoyed their schedule with this being a fourth consecutive home game and with a Bye Week thrown in too- this has not been that uncommon in recent years heading into the Championship Games and the previous eight teams are 5-3 against the spread with only one outright loser.

It will be close and competitive throughout with both teams looking to impose themselves on the line of scrimmage. However, the injury suffered by Joe Thuney could be key to separating the Ravens and Chiefs and Baltimore can do enough to get the better of the dominant AFC team and earn passage into the Super Bowl behind a cover.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: 1991.

That is the last time the Detroit Lions have played in the NFC Championship Game, but Dan Campbell and the management deserve a lot of credit for the way they have turned this franchise around. It would have been easy to move on from a Head Coach who had overseen a 3-13 record in his first season and then begun the next year at 1-6.

A strong end to the 2022 season saw the Lions only just miss out on the PlayOffs having won eight of ten games, but that run also gave the players and the entire franchise belief that they were heading in the right direction. They won the NFC North for the first time (they last won a Division when playing in the NFC Central), and the Detroit Lions have dismissed the challenge of the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take their place in the Championship Game.

Confidence will not be an issue, but the Lions are not nearly as experienced as the San Francisco 49ers, who only just beat the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round last weekend. Winning is all that matters, and the 49ers will lean on the experience of now playing in their fourth NFC Championship Game in five seasons.

The 49ers have lost the last two NFC Championship Games, but both were on the road and they did reach the Super Bowl in 2019 after crushing the Green Bay Packers in the Championship Game at home.

Eight of the last ten NFC Championship Games have been won by the home team and the San Francisco 49ers are playing with an extra day of rest. This is perhaps contributing to the fact that the 49ers are strong favourites to win this game and move onto Las Vegas in a couple of weeks time, but it is unlikely to be plain-sailing.

When San Francisco have the ball, the line of scrimmage is going to be a huge part of how successful the 49ers are going to be. Kyle Shanahan wants his team to be able to run the ball effectively as it opens up the playbook, and he will be willing to give the Detroit Lions a different look up front and have Receivers carry the ball to make sure the team is always in front of the chains.

Any team that has Chrsitian McCaffrey in the backfield behind this Offensive Line will be very confident, but the Lions are not without hope. All season we have seen the Defensive Line step up and stop the run and they have held their last three opponents to an average of just 80 yards per game on the ground.

Teams have been able to pick up some big chunks at times, which will encourage the 49ers, but it is going to be a key part of the game as the strength of the 49ers Offense goes up against the strength of the Lions Defense.

If the Lions can continue to be as stout as they have been all season, they will certainly feel they can rattle Brock Purdy at Quarter Back. Injuries in the Lions Secondary does mean it is possible to throw the ball against them and the 49ers have a number of quality weapons that can be used, but keeping the 49ers in third and long will allow the Detroit pass rush to get into Purdy's face and perhaps produce an errant throw or two.

Brock Purdy should have been picked off at least once last week by the Green Bay Packers, but the weather looks more to the Quarter Back's liking on Sunday. This should mean he has a better day passing the ball, but that pass rush pressure could still be a major problem and it will give the Lions a chance to stall drives.

After playing home games indoors, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will have been keen to see the weather report- he has played in California with the Los Angeles Rams, but it is Goff's time with the California Golden Bears that should mean he is happy enough in the outdoor conditions at Levi's Stadium.

Detroit will not want to put all of the pressure on their Quarter Back, but they will want to dominate on the ground with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs giving the Lions a dangerous duo behind Jared Goff. Both have been important to the Lions in their two PlayOff wins, while Gibbs is someone that can be a major threat whenever he gets a touch of the ball, although there is room for improvement.

They will certainly be encouraged by the performance of Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers and the Lions will be hoping to pick up from where their NFC North rivals left off in the Divisional Round. It is very important to establish the run to keep Jared Goff in positive field posiition and just give the Lions the kind of balance that will offer them every chance of earning the upset.

The Lions Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have also been very effective when it comes to protecting Jared Goff.

This feels really important to the outcome of the game- the Lions will have noted that there are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if they can keep Nick Bosa and Chase Young relatively quiet in the pass rush. Another important aspect of Jared Goff's play is that he has largely steered clear of turnovers and it was those mistakes from Jordan Love that cost the Green Bay Packers the opportunity of the upset.

Jared Goff will feel he has the weapons to win this game, even on the road. The numbers show that Goff has been more effective indoors, but the weather forecast is not a negative one for him and his time in California should mean that he cannot use playing outdoors as an excuse for underperforming.

His teams are 14-9 against the spread when set as an underdog of at least 5 points, while Goff and the Lions have really played well against the spread when facing the best teams in the NFL. They are also 12-7 against the spread as the road underdog since Dan Campbell took over as Head Coach and the Lions are being given plenty of points in this one.

The 49ers have been favoured in every game played this season, but they dropped to 3-6 against the spread as the home favourite in 2023 having failed to cover against the Green Bay Packers.

However, the biggest impact on this game has to be the status of Deebo Samuel- he has avoided a season ending injury having been knocked out of the Divisional Round game against the Packers, but he is questionable at best for Sunday.

While the 49ers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, Samuel looks to be the key to all they want to achieve Offensively. His ability to be a key part of the passing and the rushing side of the Offensive unit cannot be underestimated and it is telling that the 49ers are 10-3 against the spread in games that Deebo has started and finished, but amazingly 0-5 against the spread without him.

It may help the Lions slow the 49ers sufficiently enough to stay competitive throughout this one. Turnovers are likely going to be key for the team that reaches the Super Bowl, but Detroit certainly have a chance to win this one outright and so taking the points on offer looks to be the right play.

Of course there are a couple of practices to get through and Samuel is likely to be a game time decision, but the Lions can still be given an edge with this many points on their side.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 1.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 78-57-4, + 16.11 Units

NFL Divisional Round PlayOff Picks 2024 (January 20-21)

The NFL PlayOffs are usually an exciting time of the year, but fans will be hoping for a lot more drama in the Divisional Round than we saw in the Super Wild Card Round last time out.

Six games were played, but five of those ended up in blowouts and only the Los Angeles Rams-Detroit Lions game kept fans engrossed right down to the wire.

Some of the final scores looked more competitive than the games actually were, but we are hoping for better in the Divisional Round.

That may be asking too much with two big favourites and another who are favoured by almost a Touchdown.

The two Number 1 Seeds are both back to host games, although perhaps not against the opponent they would have been expecting to face, but it just feels a little underwhelming. That may be partly down to the fact that the Miami Dolphins season ended in a whimper, but I am also a fan of the sport and I want to see top games and it just feels like those are missing right now.

It is very difficult to look beyond the top Seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, but the hope is that we see some drama this week.

Another good week for the NFL Picks has kept the momentum going- after losing the opening Wild Card Pick, the next five came back as winners and that should ensure a winning season at the very least.

Backing that up in the Divisional Round is still very much the aim with the selections from the games added below.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a rematch of a Week 1 game, but the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud are going to feel they are much more rounded a few months later. The Quarter Back was making his first ever start in the NFL when losing to the Baltimore Ravens, but will lead the Texans into this Divisional Round game having the momentum of winning three games in a row, including blowing out the Cleveland Browns in the Super Wild Card Round game.

Of course this is a big step up in challenge for the Houston Texans, who have been hit by injury on both sides of the ball.

One thing is facing the top Seed in the AFC, but another is facing them knowing the Baltimore Ravens are rested and also hosting the game outdoors in what is expected to be cold weather.

However, that did not work out very well for the Baltimore Ravens when last in this position- Lamar Jackson might be having a MVP level season, but he will have some mental demons to exorcise having struggled to take his regular season form into the PlayOffs and with plenty of talk about the loss to the Tennessee Titans in the last couple of weeks.

John Harbaugh is trying to follow brother Jim by winning the biggest prize in his sport, but he does not have the best record when preparing his Ravens out of a Bye Week. His team have effectively had three weeks off, which is going to raise another concern, but the Baltimore Ravens should have key players back.

Most notable could be Mark Andrews, although his status is still Questionable for this Divisional Round game. The Ravens have continued to play well even in his absence, but Andrews could be a huge boost for the team if they are able to get him back into the fold.

The Ravens are going to want to run the ball first and foremost and use that to open up the passing lanes, although the weather may hinder any impact through the air anyway. You have to give DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Coaching Staff a lot of credit for the vast improvements made on the Defensive Line, but injuries have perhaps contributed to the Texans having a little more difficulty in stopping the run down the stretch.

Losing JK Dobbins has hurt, but Dalvin Cook has been signed and the veteran can join Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in helping the Ravens establish the run. Of course they have also have Lamar Jackson who can tuck the ball and pick up plenty of yards on the ground himself, so the feeling is that the Ravens can keep themselves in front of the chains.

It should mean they can make plays through the air when they decide they can- the gusty winds could be a problem, but throwing out of third and manageable is a good place to be. Lamar Jackson has some quality weapons in the passing game that can expose this Texans Secondary and the feeling is that the Ravens can at least produce an Offensive outing more like what we have seen in the regular season than we did when they faced the Titans in this position in 2019.

You cannot ignore the poor recent record the Ravens have had in the post-season though and there is going to be plenty of pressure on them.

Conversely, Houston may arrive feeling like they have already massively overachieved and having nothing to lose, while they have a Quarter Back that has shown throughout his rookie season that he can elevate this team.

The Texans did win at Cincinnati outdoors, but they were well beaten by the New York Jets and you do have to wonder if CJ Stroud can take his success on the road.

He is a quality Quarter Back, but this is another top Defensive unit in front of him and one that is much healthier than the Cleveland Browns who were beaten in the Super Wild Card Round. The score in that one got out of hand for the Browns once Joe Flacco became a turnover machine with a couple of Pick-Sixes, so the expectation is that this is another big test for the rookie Quarter Back.

You have to believe the experience of playing here in Week 1 will help, but Stroud is without some key Offensive pieces and the Offensive Line continues to struggle in pass protection. The Texans would hope to establish the run against the Ravens, which is the weakness on this side of the ball, but they can only be used as long as the game is competitive, while you also have to factor in the struggles the Houston Offensive Line have had in establishing the run down the stretch.

A lot of the pressure has been on CJ Stroud, although the rookie has obviously accepted that and played very well. In this one he is likely going to be scrambling around and looking to make plays, but that becomes difficult against this Ravens Secondary, even if Marlon Humphrey is expected to miss out.

A backdoor cover is possible with the line as high as it is, while Lamar Jackson has been a Quarter Back to oppose when he has been favoured by more than 3 points. His PlayOff record is abysmal considering the talent, but the Ravens do match up pretty well with the Texans and the outdoor conditions should favour Baltimore a bit more too.

CJ Stroud has looked after the ball very well as the pressure has intensified during this three game winning run, but the Ravens will generate pressure and they may be able to create a turnover or two to just pull away for the win and cover.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: If this Divisional Round game had been played a year ago, all of the talk would have been about Aaron Rodgers and being overlooked by the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Draft. The veteran Quarter Back has moved on and the Green Bay Packers will head off to face the Number 1 Seed in the NFC with Jordan Love at Quarter Back instead.

It has been an up and down season for Love personally and for this young Packers team, but there has been enough to see to have fans believing that a Championship will be possible in the coming years. This year might be too soon, but the Packers will not be lacking confidence having humbled the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Super Wild Card Round.

This is a significant step up against a rested San Francisco team that are favoured to win the Super Bowl.

Last season an injury to Brock Purdy proved costly in the NFC Championship Game and so there is plenty of motivation for the 49ers to right that wrong, and it is no surprise to see them as a big favourite. Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread when set as the home favourite in the PlayOffs and many fans will be expecting them to improve on that over the next two weekends to earn a trip to Las Vegas in mid-February.

The 49ers will not be overly concerned about back to back home losses to end the regular season, especially as the last one was with the backups.

Having a couple of weeks off has given the starters a boost and the 49ers are coming in looking very healthy, which is a concern for every other team with Super Bowl ambitions. They will certainly feel this health gives them every chance to impose themselves on the Offensive side of the ball and the Green Bay Packers have long had issues trying to stop a Kyle Shanahan San Francisco Offense.

With the Offensive Line intact, the 49ers are expected to run the ball right at the Green Bay Packers and Christian McCaffrey should be able to produce a big game. While the Packers Defensive Line have stiffened down the stretch, they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one San Francisco trot out onto the field and Green Bay have allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the road this season.

Motion and sweeps will give the 49ers a way to establish the run too and McCaffrey can be a big threat as a pass-catcher so the feeling is that the home team will be in third and manageable throughout the game.

Some may see Brock Purdy as a product of the system rather than him being an elite Quarter Back, but it doesn't really matter because he is producing on the field. With Jaire Alexander Questionable, Purdy should be able to use play-action to hit his Receivers down the field, while it also makes it very difficult to get to the Quarter Back for a solid pass rush if the Packers are playing behind the chains.

The 49ers have been very impressive in their dominance in the regular season with all but one of their wins being by double digits and so they have to be respected.

Much is going to depend on the Green Bay Offensive Line in this one as the Packers look to be competitive in this Divisional Round game. A lot of credit has been given to the development of Jordan Love, but the key to this one may actually be Aaron Jones and the Line as they look to establish the run against the 49ers and sustain drives.

The Offensive Line have offered Jordan Love time in the pocket when he has dropped back to throw, but it is much easier to try and contain Nick Bosa and Chase Young if they are in third and manageable. So the key is to make sure that Jones gets things going on the ground, although the 49ers are well aware of the importance of shutting down the Running Back and have played well in recent games when it comes to defending the run.

Jordan Love has been careful with the ball, but that becomes more challenging if the team are chasing points or in obvious passing situations. He has a young Receiving corps that have stepped up as the season has worn on, while Christian Watson should offer more in the Divisional Round having only just returned for the PlayOffs.

There are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if the Green Bay Packers are at their best and Jordan Love may be able to engineer a backdoor cover. They covered as a big road underdog in the Super Wild Card Round and the Packers have a solid 7-4 record against the spread when given points this season.

Of course opposing San Francisco in their own Stadium has proven to be a poor choice, although they have not been as effective covering the spread with the layers putting down big spreads knowing the public want to back them. In this Divisional Round game, the public look to be favouring the Packers, but they do have the qualities at the line of scrimmage on the Offensive side of the ball to find a way to a backdoor cover at worst.

Kyle Shanahan has proven to be a PlayOff master as the home favourite, but there looks to be enough points to be worth getting behind the Packers for a second week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The last Super Wild Card Round game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'upset' the Philadelphia Eagles, although the home team were a trendy pick on the day. That means the Buccaneers get the chance to travel to the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round and Tampa Bay will appreciate the fact that this game is played under a Dome (even if a journalist asked Todd Bowles about how the weather will impact his team, doh).

Make no mistake, the Buccaneers are rightly set as the underdog against a Lions team that held off former Quarter Back Matthew Stafford in a home win last Sunday. That does mean Detroit have a slight advantage when it comes to the rest and recovery, while home advantage is also going to be important for Dan Campbell's team.

All credit has to be given to the Head Coach, but plenty should also be reserved for Jared Goff who has proven he is anything but a bust at Quarter Back. It was his play that helped the Lions to a big road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season in a game hosted by the Buccaneers, although the Defensive unit also had a really impressive showing when these teams met in October.

Unfortunately for the Lions, injury have lessened the impact being made by the Defensive unit compared with earlier in the regular season. They were able to keep the Rams out of the End Zone at key moments in the second half in their Super Wild Card Round win, but the Lions Secondary are struggling and now face a Tampa Bay team with quality Receivers.

The expectation was that there was going to be a significant drop off for the Receivers with the Buccaneers moving from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, but the latter has to be given a lot of praise for the season his team have had. While not perfect, Mayfield has made enough plays to believe he can help his team be a lot more competitive than they were in the home loss.

A lot of pressure will be on the Quarter Back considering the struggles the Buccaneers have had when it comes to establishing the run. There were some positive plays in the win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but this week they are facing a Detroit Defensive Line that have been stout all season and continue to clamp down on the run very effectively.

This most certainly will allow the Lions to let their pass rushers off the leash and they will be expected to hit Baker Mayfield a lot in this game. The Quarter Back has shown toughness to hang in the pocket and make his throws down the field, but that pressure can lead to mistakes and that will be a huge blow to any hopes the Buccaneers have in trying to earn the upset.

Avoiding those mistakes and playing the field position would be a huge success for Tampa Bay, while you also have to expect Baker Mayfield to get the ball to the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton in the passing game. The injuries in the Detroit Secondary has meant that teams have been able to pile up the numbers through the air and Baker Mayfield can at least give his team a chance.

Much like the Lions, the Buccaneers Defensive Line will also be looking to make Detroit one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. Running the ball has been a huge part of the successes that Jared Goff has had at Quarter Back and the Lions have a tandem at Running Back who have been very effective.

However, the Lions struggled to get much going on the ground when facing Tampa Bay in the regular season and it may be tough for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in this one. The latter of the two is likely to have a bigger impact in the passing game, but forcing Detroit to become one-dimensional and rely on the Goff arm would feel like a big win for the road underdog.

This is a young Tampa Bay Secondary, but they showed they are playing at a better level than when these teams met in the regular season. Placing Detroit in obvious passing situations should give the Buccaneers a chance to get into the backfield and rush the Quarter Back, although Jared Goff has been pretty careful with his placement and that is also important.

He does have Receivers who can make some big plays in the passing game and the Lions have been much better at home this season.

However, they did fail to cover as the home favourite last week and this Tampa Bay team have been a feisty underdog.

The Buccaneers are not only 9-3 against the spread as an underdog this season, but that becomes 7-1 against the spread when set as the road underdog.

After the win on Monday Night Football, Baker Mayfield has improved to 3-0 against the spread as the underdog in the PlayOffs and that is a record that has to be respected. In his NFL career overall, Mayfield has been more productive in the role of an underdog and he clearly becomes motivated to upset the odds or perceived slights of being an underdog.

Detroit are a very good team and clearly improved under Dan Campbell, but they are dealing with post-season expectations and the Buccaneers may have a more 'care-free' attitude having overachieved to reach the Divisional Round. The Lions did crush the Denver Broncos as a 5.5 point favourite, but failed to cover here against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers as a bigger favourite.

I would have loved to have gotten a point more for the underdog, but even at this number, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can make enough plays in the passing game to stay with the home favourite.

As long as Baker Mayfield doesn't have a turnover-filled game, the road underdog looks the team to back with the points.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has become a familiar PlayOff match up and it has been clear for a while that the Buffalo Bills were being built to make sure they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. You can't blame the thinking with the Chiefs costing the Bills a potential Super Bowl a couple of times and clearly being the team to beat in the AFC in recent years.

There is one major difference in this game this year though.

This time the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs who are playing on the road for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting Quarter Back.

It will make a difference in terms of dealing with the home crowd and the noise, but the conditions should not be a major problem for the Chiefs to deal with. Only last week they played in about as bad a cold as you can imagine, but this week everything feels a bit more serene in Buffalo and that should allow both teams to produce their best.

We are still expecting cold and wind, but the Bills and Chiefs cannot use that as an excuse- depending on the Saturday results, the winner of this may even be playing for an opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game.

A bigger concern for Buffalo has to be the host of Defensive injuries picked up in their Monday night win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Wild Card Round. The delay means they have also had two days fewer rest than the Kansas City Chiefs who have already beaten one AFC East team in this PlayOff run.

While the Chiefs have come out largely healthy from last weekend, Buffalo have already ruled out Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp and Baylon Spector, while Rashal Douglas, Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard are Questionable. The latter three are expected to suit up, but the Linebackers and Defensive Backs are banged up and that should give the Kansas City Chiefs a chance when it comes to the passing game.

This has been inconsistent all season- Patrick Mahomes is still playing at a high level, but his Receivers are young or erratic and it has meant the Chiefs have not been nearly as explosive as previous years. However, the injuries in the Secondary means the Bills may struggle to cover as effectively as usual and even this Receiving corps available to Mahomes could have a strong outing.

Establishing the run first would be ideal and the Chiefs have been very good on the ground down the stretch, even if Head Coach Andy Reid does not stick with the game plan as he perhaps should. Despite some improvements, injury has again lessened the impact the Bills have had in clamping down on the run and so Patrick Mahomes should be able to throw out of third and manageable spots on the field.

Patrick Mahomes has been well protected by the Offensive Line down the stretch too and that should mean the Quarter Back has the time for this Receivers to beat some of the backups that will be operating in the Buffalo Secondary.

Those injuries will have increased the pressure on Josh Allen and the Offensive unit, which will be without big game Gabe Davis for another outing.

There is no doubt that the Josh Allen legs will be as important as his arm in this one as the Bills look to get something going on the ground. After a strong run of games from James Cook, the run game has just bogged down in recent outings and they are now playing against a Chiefs team that have really focused on trying to clamp down on the run.

This still remains the best way to begin to attack Kansas City and the dual-threat of Josh Allen should make it 'easier' for the Bills to try and get things moving on the ground. Being able to do so means the play-action can be employed, while also slowing down the Kansas City pass rush, which has been a huge importance to the Chiefs winning the AFC West again.

A young Kansas City Secondary has continued to play really well and losing the game-stretching threat of Gabe Davis should allow the Chiefs to play with a bit more aggression at the line of scrimmage. Stefon Diggs has not been used as well as he has in the past, but he will still be a focal point of the Defensive Backs and the Kansas City Defensive unit have to believe they can do enough to get the better of the Bills Receivers.

Buffalo will still make some plays, but it does feel like those injuries in the Defensive unit will give the Kansas City Chiefs every chance of earning the upset. They have a Defensive unit of their own which has played as well as any out there, while Patrick Mahomes will point out that his team lost the regular season game to Buffalo after a controversial refereeing call.

The Chiefs are 9-3-1 against the spread when set as the underdog since 2018 and the feeling is that they will be hugely motivated by being the underdog in this PlayOff game, especially as they are still the defending Super Bowl Champions.

For all of their qualities, the Bills are only a middle of the road team when it comes to covering as the home favourite over the last couple of years. They are also just 3-3 against the spread as the home favourite in the post-season and the play has to be taking the points with the expectation being that the Chiefs can make enough plays against a banged up Secondary to keep this one close.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 75-56-4, + 14.45 Units