Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 20th January)

The First Round is concluded at the Australian Open on Tuesday as Day 3 of the tournament gets underway.

In the main, the top names have managed to get through the opening Round and there will be plenty of tougher obstacles to overcome if they are going to move on and win the Australian Open. Some of the other contenders are going to want to follow suit on Day 3, although it looks another day to pick off some selections.

Monday produced a 1-1 return for the selections made, but that continues a solid start to the opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season.

Three Picks have been made for Day 3 and those can be read below.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Shintaro Mochizuki: He is barely holding onto a Seeding at the 2026 Australian Open, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may feel comfortable in the Melbourne surroundings.

He has dropped down to World Number 33, but a couple of withdrawals means he is the Number 31 Seed in the tournament.

However, Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the Semi Final three times at the Australian Open and has also added an appearance in the Final in another tournament Down Under. This can only give him confidence as he looks to at least surpass the First Round and avoid opening exits in this event for the second season in a row, which would be a big disappointment to the huge amount of fans that come to support Tsitsipas.

Throughout his career, Stefanos Tsitsipas has tended to play his best tennis in the first half of the season and he is hoping that things have settled off the court, which will allow him to play his best on the court. A disappointing loss early in Adelaide will not have overshadowed what has been a solid opening to the month for the former World Number 3 and he is a favourite against this younger opponent.

Shintaro Mochizuki is still outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings and he has struggled for the consistency that will be needed if he is going to surpass his career best mark of World Number 92.

Eight losses in his last nine hard court matches will not have given Mochizuki much confidence and he was beaten in both matches at the United Cup and in Qualifying in Auckland in preparation for this opening Grand Slam.

Over the last twelve months, Shintaro Mochizuki is 1-4 on the hard courts when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent on the hard courts and he has struggled to be competitive in those matches.

One of the defeats was to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the United Cup and that match will just settle any nerves that the Greek player may have otherwise have felt prior to the Australian Open getting underway.

The contest was competitive, but Stefanos Tsitsipas created a lot more Break Points than his opponent and the numbers produced by Shintaro Mochizuki were similar to those he has put together against the better players on the Tour. Those have left the World Number 112 short of the top opponents faced and Stefanos Tsitsipas should earn the breaks he needs to cover a slightly awkward line.

In reality that is largely down to the inconsistency that Tsitsipas has produced as a return player, but he should be confident enough in this match up to earn the four or five breaks that may be needed to cover this mark.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Antonia Ruzic: The return to the Tour has been pretty challenging for Naomi Osaka, even if the former World Number 1 has shown signs of getting closer to her best tennis.

The run to the US Open Semi Final back in September will have given Naomi Osaka a huge boost- this is her best Grand Slam run since winning the Australian Open in 2021. Prior to becoming a mother for the first time, Naomi Osaka had been the dominant hard court player on the WTA Tour and it is impossible to ignore the fact that she won four Grand Slam titles on the surface.

Two of those were right here in Melbourne, although Naomi Osaka has been beaten in the First Round and Third Round in her last two appearances here.

However, the improvement in the second half of the 2025 season means Naomi Osaka has moved back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. This is important for Osaka in terms of being able to avoid the top names on the Tour until the Third Round at least and this gives the former World Number 1 an opportunity to build some momentum into the biggest events of the 2026 year over the next eleven months.

For all of the improvement, there is scope for more with Naomi Osaka looking to show a bit more on the return of serve, while she is 1-1 on the hard courts in preparation for this event.

First up for Naomi Osaka is a match up against Antonio Ruzic who is the World Number 71 and who has lost her sole match in the build up to the Australian Open.

The 22 year old has steady numbers when facing players Ranked inside the top 50 over the last twelve months on the hard courts, but she is 0-3 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents. That is the challenge for the younger player and she has not really been able to get into the return games in those matches against the best players on the Tour.

Antonio Ruzic is going to have to serve well to try and build some pressure on Naomi Osaka, but the latter has gotten to grips with facing those she should be beating. Over the last twelve months, Osaka is 8-4 when facing those outside of the top 50 and a couple of those defeats could easily have gone in her way with a bit more fortune at the biggest moments.

Only one of the last seven Grand Slam tournaments have ended in a First Round defeat for Naomi Osaka and she may have just enough in hand to cover this awkward line set for this match.

Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Two former Grand Slam Finalists meet in the First Round at the Australian Open in 2026 and Sloane Stephens and Karolina Pliskova are both Ranked outside of the top 1000.

That is less to do with their talent, but more to do with injuries meaning limited time spent on the court over the last twelve months and so every win in Melbourne will provide a significant boost.

With both turning 33 and 34 respectively in March, you do have to accept that Stephens and Pliskova are in the final stages of what have been strong careers. Sloane Stephens won a Grand Slam title at the US Open, while losing another at the French Open, while Karolina Pliskova reached two Grand Slam Finals without winning a Major.

Of course it is the Czech player who earned the World Number 1 position, while Sloane Stephens is a former World Number 3, and both players are very familiar with one another.

Since returning from a year long lay off, Karolina Pliskova has lost all three matches played on the Tour and is making her debut in 2026. This has to be a potential factor in the match and it is the main reason that Pliskova has been set as the underdog in this contest.

Sloane Stephens also returned in 2025 and failed to win a match before losing early in Auckland, but the American decided to take part in the Qualifiers for the Australian Open rather than looking for a Wild Card. She is a former Semi Finalist at this Grand Slam, but six of the last eight appearances at the Australian Open have ended in a First Round defeat.

Three Qualifying wins will have given Sloane Stephens a real boost and the performances in those matches will also be a real shot of confidence.

It also will help the American that she has won six of the seven matches against Karolina Pliskova on the main Tour and that includes both previous hard court contests.

Neither player is at the level they once were, but Sloane Stephens should be all the better for the tennis that she has gotten under her belt this past week.

Her tennis matches up pretty well with Karolina Pliskova and that may show up on the final scoreboard in this clash of two veterans that once pushed for Grand Slam titles, but are just trying to remain in position to compete on the Tour these days.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (1 Unit)

Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Australian Open Update: 6-2, + 6.20 Units (16 Units Staked, + 38.75% Yield)

College Football Pick- National Championship 2025 (Monday 20th January)

The new College Football Playoff has changed the way we lead up into the National Championship Game, but we have got here and it looks like a decent game between two schools that have overcome some adversity during the course of the season.

The off-season is going to bring changes in College Football and we might even here about any extension to the Playoff format, while all eyes will be on North Carolina and whether they can retain Bill Belichick as Head Coach.

It has been a fun season for the fans to enjoy, but all comes to a conclusion with a new Champion set to be crowned when the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish face off.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The new College Football Playoff format will be considered a success, although there maybe some tweaks and an expansion over the coming years.

The first twelve team Playoff ends on Monday with the National Championship Game and it looks a good one.

Both the Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) played in the First Round of the post-season and they have each beaten three opponents.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee Volunteers at home before earning revenge over the Oregon Ducks, the Big Ten Champions, in the Quarter Final. They were not as dominant, despite the score, in the win over the Texas Longhorns, but the Ohio State Buckeyes will feel they are pretty well tested ahead of the National Championship as a talented group peak at just the right time.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish have beaten two Big Ten opponents on their way to the National Championship Game and that will give them plenty of confidence that this season can end with a trophy to parade. The blowout of the Indiana Hoosiers was expected, but the tough, battling win over the Penn State Nittany Lions just underlined the belief in this Fighting Irish team.

Beating the SEC Champions Georgia, albeit with a backup Quarter Back, will have deepened that belief and Notre Dame have to be respected for gritting their way through to the National Championship Game. Injuries have piled up, which is something those in the Playoff Committee will have noted, but the Fighting Irish continue to rally together and 'next man up' mentality is helping them.

This is the hardest of tests for Notre Dame with the Buckeyes finally looking like they are playing at the level that most expected from them before a ball had been kicked off, and it may not be the best match up Offensively.

The Fighting Irish want to lean on the Offensive Line, but the Playoff performances have been more challenging for them as they have opened up holes for 4.1 yards per carry. However, Notre Dame are not going to want to move too far away from the plan, and that is a problem when going up against this Ohio State Defensive Line, which has played at a really high level in the post-season.

Riley Leonard would love to throw the ball to open the running lanes, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Quarter Back has not really been as consistent with the step up in level of competition. There has been some success throwing the ball against the Buckeyes, but that is because teams have needed to take risks and Leonard and company may get into a vicious cycle if they have to move away from the run.

It would also mean trying to stop the fierce Ohio State pass rush that has penetrated the backfield and Riley Leonard has been put under duress during the Notre Dame run to the National Championship Game. That pressure has led to some turnovers and the Ohio State Buckeyes have to be very confident about what they can do when the Fighting Irish have the ball, especially with further injuries on the Notre Dame Offensive Line.

In saying that, Notre Dame are going to be confident they can make enough plays on the Defensive side of the ball to keep this one competitive and give them a chance of earning the upset.

Extra preparation time should mean the Fighting Irish are ready to challenge this very productive Ohio State Offense, which has found considerable balance.

Moving the ball on the ground against the Fighting Irish Defensive Line with any consistency will not be easy, but this Ohio State team will be confident they can rip open some big plays to keep the team balanced, which is so important in these potentially tight, competitive Defensive battles.

Will Howard is certainly the stronger passer of the two Quarter Backs taking to the field and he has some hugely talented playmakers around him. Assuming the Fighting Irish are going to try and limit the impact of Jeremiah Smith, others have shown they can step up for their Quarter Back and make the plays that keep the chains moving down the field.

There are some big injuries on this side of the ball for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to deal with and even Head Coach Marcus Freeman's strong record when having time to prepare looks like it may not be good enough to keep his team within the spread.

He will make sure Notre Dame remain competitive, but the likelihood is that the Ohio State Buckeyes use their talent to wear down a Notre Dame team missing a lot of important players on both sides of the ball. Head Coach Ryan Day is under some pressure to bring home the National Championship, but his Buckeyes team look to have peaked at the right time and they can cover on their way to a very successful season, a loss to Michigan aside.

MY PICK: Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Playoff Semi Final: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)

Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2025 (Monday 20th January)

Since the beginning of this tournament, I have constantly looked back on the Australian Open 2024 as the low point of the Tennis Picks and the focus of making sure something that like that does not happen again.

The selection process has been a bit tighter in January 2025, but there were enough positives from the remaining three Grand Slam tournaments and the Tour Finals to believe that there was not a lot wrong with the processes taken before making the Picks.

I've always said you need some luck with the tight margins that represent any tennis match on the Tour.

In most cases it comes down to one or two points in a set to really dictate the final score- that may be taking a single Break Point or saving multiple Break Points, or as simple as a net cord changing the momentum within a match.

With that in mind, the Australian Open 2024 will long live in the memory as the absolute worst performance and it is something I will be looking to avoid happening again.

The New Year and the first Grand Slam of the season has really been the opposite of the tournament in 2024 and four winners from four selections on Day 8 has kept the total moving in a positive direction. The only pick that didn't return was when Jack Draper called it quits in his match with Carlos Alcaraz as the Spaniard was closing in on a win and a cover too, something that the British player is perhaps earning a reputation for doing when things are not going his way.

However, the win includes a couple of odds against prices, which can build the momentum and it would be a real disappointment if this is not a tournament that kicks off the 2025 Tennis Picks with a positive return.

In saying that, this is not the time to pat yourself on the back and instead the focus is to try and win every day.

On Day 9 the Fourth Round is completed as we reach the business end of the tournament with some top names and favourites still involved with real ambitions of winning this Grand Slam.

There are some tight, competitive matches that look too tight to call one way or the other, but the there are three selections which can be read below.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Holger Rune: Winning both Grand Slam tournaments played on the hard courts, the ATP Tour Finals and plenty of other Masters events on the surface means Jannik Sinner is the player to beat in the men's draw in Melbourne.

He benefits from being on the other side of the draw to the likes of Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, but there is still a cloud hanging over the World Number 1 due to a failed drugs test from last year which has yet to be completely cleared up.

The fact that Sinner is able to focus on his tennis is testament to his mental resiliency, especially as he was faced with plenty of criticism ahead of the US Open, which he ended up winning.

Three wins at the Australian Open have come in routine fashion and Jannik Sinner will go into this Fourth Round match as a considerable favourite.

Of course Jannik Sinner will have a real respect for Holger Rune, the World Number 13 who was as high as World Number 4 eighteen months ago and looks to be coming out of a difficult patch of form. The Dane is still only 21 years old and has massive potential for big successes on the Tour, but Rune perhaps hit an early wall in his career and early losses at both the Australian Open and US Open last year would have stung.

Winning this match would push Holger Rune back into the top ten of the World Rankings, but he has not been the most convincing player entering the Fourth Round. Putting three wins on the board will build some confidence, but Holger Rune has been edging some fine margins and he has played fourteen of fifteen potential sets to move through the draw.

The time spent on the court is not a massive concern, but the mental effort to get through a couple of five setters, including in the Third Round, has to take a toll.

This is also a big step up for Holger Rune, who will be motivated by the challenge, and Jannik Sinner has won their last two matches on the Tour. Neither has been comfortable, but the last match was in April 2024 and the World Number 1 continues to grow his aura on the court.

Both are serving well, although the edge is with the top Seed, but the big difference may be the ability on the return and that is where Jannik Sinner looks the stronger player.

Make no mistake, this is a big spread and Holger Rune is capable of testing Jannik Sinner.

However, the feeling is that Sinner is fresher and looks to be just increasing his level as we move into the second week of this Grand Slam and he may end up pulling away from Holger Rune over the course of a three or four set match. One of those sets could be won with a couple of breaks of serve, and that may be enough to push Jannik Sinner past the line set.

Daria Kasatkina v Emma Navarro: Only two places separated these two top ten Ranked players ahead of the tournament and the layers are finding it hard to put much more between them when it comes to the prices for this Fourth Round match.

It is Emma Navarro who is the higher Ranked of the two players, but the American has not really impressed in Melbourne.

The heart is not going to be criticised though and Emma Navarro has found a way through in matches where she has been struggling and that will give her plenty of confidence. We are moving into the second week at this Grand Slam, which means the competition is expected to increase, so there is some pressure on Navarro to lift her level.

Next up is Daria Kasatkina, the World Number 10 and a player who is going to hold onto one of those spots barring an upset and Madison Keys winning the event.

She has been a dominant winner in all three matches in Melbourne, but Daria Kasatkina has not played anyone inside the top 20 of the World Rankings and that has to be factored in. Take nothing away from the performances, but it should be pointed out that Daria Kasatkina has a 4-4 record against top 20 opponents over the last twelve months and is just 0-2 when it comes to facing fellow top ten opponents on this surface.

Emma Navarro has needed three sets in each of her victories in Melbourne, and it is the slightly better returning numbers compared to her overall numbers in that category which have helped her through to the Fourth Round.

It will certainly give the American hope, especially as she is facing an opponent in Daria Kasatkina who does not have the most intimidating of serves.

The World Number 10 is a very good return player though and Emma Navarro has not really been getting enough out of her serve to ever think she will be comfortable.

Expect plenty of rallies and breaks galore, but the feeling is that Daria Kasatkina's current level may just see her outlast an opponent who has already played a lot of tennis over the last week.

Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Eva Lys: She is only 23 years old, but Eva Lys would have arrived in Australia hoping to have an impact at a warm up event and then earn a place in the main draw at the Australian Open to earn some valuable Ranking points.

She would have admitted some disappointment having been beaten in Brisbane in the opening Qualifying Round before Eva Lys was able to make it through two matches in the Australian Open Qualifiers. It was not to be as the German was beaten in the Third Qualifying Round and Eva Lys admitted that she had booked a flight out of the country and back onto the slog of the Tour.

The World Number 128 was given a reprieve by earning a Lucky Loser spot in the main draw in Melbourne and Lys has taken full advantage.

Fortune has been on her side having faced a Qualifier in the First Round of the main draw and Eva Lys has won two more matches, but against opponents Ranked 69 or lower. She still had to win the matches though and Eva Lys will be entering the top 100 for the first time at the end of this tournament, which means direct entry into further Grand Slam tournaments and an opportunity to play bigger events than she has been fighting through.

It has been all positive for Eva Lys, but she is going to have to raise her level significantly in this Fourth Round match on Monday when taking on World Number 2 Iga Swiatek.

A flawless performance saw Iga Swiatek drop just a single game in her crushing win over former US Open Champion Emma Raducanu and the Polish player has admitted that she feels much stronger than when preparing at the United Cup.

Iga Swiatek has to be really happy with her level having beaten three opponents Ranked 61 or higher, and she has dominated behind serve. In the last two matches she has not even faced a Break Point, while Swiatek has won 53% of return points played in the Australian Open.

Her level is considerably higher than someone like Eva Lys and Iga Swiatek looks to be really focused right now.

As long as that continues to be the case, Iga Swiatek should dominate this match and there is every chance she can avoid giving too much away to her opponent. This is a massive line, one that is more along the lines that the men are asked to cover in a best of five set match, not a best of three, but Iga Swiatek is playing at such a standard that she may just have the capabilities of securing another one-sided victory in the tournament.

Their sole previous meeting was on Iga Swiatek's favoured clay courts in 2022 and Eva Lys was able to win just two games on the day- she may double that total here, but even that may not be enough to prevent the Number 2 Seed from easing through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 21-7, + 18.98 Units (53 Units Staked, + 35.81% Yield)

NFL Divisional Round PlayOff Picks 2024 (January 20-21)

The NFL PlayOffs are usually an exciting time of the year, but fans will be hoping for a lot more drama in the Divisional Round than we saw in the Super Wild Card Round last time out.

Six games were played, but five of those ended up in blowouts and only the Los Angeles Rams-Detroit Lions game kept fans engrossed right down to the wire.

Some of the final scores looked more competitive than the games actually were, but we are hoping for better in the Divisional Round.

That may be asking too much with two big favourites and another who are favoured by almost a Touchdown.

The two Number 1 Seeds are both back to host games, although perhaps not against the opponent they would have been expecting to face, but it just feels a little underwhelming. That may be partly down to the fact that the Miami Dolphins season ended in a whimper, but I am also a fan of the sport and I want to see top games and it just feels like those are missing right now.

It is very difficult to look beyond the top Seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, but the hope is that we see some drama this week.

Another good week for the NFL Picks has kept the momentum going- after losing the opening Wild Card Pick, the next five came back as winners and that should ensure a winning season at the very least.

Backing that up in the Divisional Round is still very much the aim with the selections from the games added below.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a rematch of a Week 1 game, but the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud are going to feel they are much more rounded a few months later. The Quarter Back was making his first ever start in the NFL when losing to the Baltimore Ravens, but will lead the Texans into this Divisional Round game having the momentum of winning three games in a row, including blowing out the Cleveland Browns in the Super Wild Card Round game.

Of course this is a big step up in challenge for the Houston Texans, who have been hit by injury on both sides of the ball.

One thing is facing the top Seed in the AFC, but another is facing them knowing the Baltimore Ravens are rested and also hosting the game outdoors in what is expected to be cold weather.

However, that did not work out very well for the Baltimore Ravens when last in this position- Lamar Jackson might be having a MVP level season, but he will have some mental demons to exorcise having struggled to take his regular season form into the PlayOffs and with plenty of talk about the loss to the Tennessee Titans in the last couple of weeks.

John Harbaugh is trying to follow brother Jim by winning the biggest prize in his sport, but he does not have the best record when preparing his Ravens out of a Bye Week. His team have effectively had three weeks off, which is going to raise another concern, but the Baltimore Ravens should have key players back.

Most notable could be Mark Andrews, although his status is still Questionable for this Divisional Round game. The Ravens have continued to play well even in his absence, but Andrews could be a huge boost for the team if they are able to get him back into the fold.

The Ravens are going to want to run the ball first and foremost and use that to open up the passing lanes, although the weather may hinder any impact through the air anyway. You have to give DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Coaching Staff a lot of credit for the vast improvements made on the Defensive Line, but injuries have perhaps contributed to the Texans having a little more difficulty in stopping the run down the stretch.

Losing JK Dobbins has hurt, but Dalvin Cook has been signed and the veteran can join Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in helping the Ravens establish the run. Of course they have also have Lamar Jackson who can tuck the ball and pick up plenty of yards on the ground himself, so the feeling is that the Ravens can keep themselves in front of the chains.

It should mean they can make plays through the air when they decide they can- the gusty winds could be a problem, but throwing out of third and manageable is a good place to be. Lamar Jackson has some quality weapons in the passing game that can expose this Texans Secondary and the feeling is that the Ravens can at least produce an Offensive outing more like what we have seen in the regular season than we did when they faced the Titans in this position in 2019.

You cannot ignore the poor recent record the Ravens have had in the post-season though and there is going to be plenty of pressure on them.

Conversely, Houston may arrive feeling like they have already massively overachieved and having nothing to lose, while they have a Quarter Back that has shown throughout his rookie season that he can elevate this team.

The Texans did win at Cincinnati outdoors, but they were well beaten by the New York Jets and you do have to wonder if CJ Stroud can take his success on the road.

He is a quality Quarter Back, but this is another top Defensive unit in front of him and one that is much healthier than the Cleveland Browns who were beaten in the Super Wild Card Round. The score in that one got out of hand for the Browns once Joe Flacco became a turnover machine with a couple of Pick-Sixes, so the expectation is that this is another big test for the rookie Quarter Back.

You have to believe the experience of playing here in Week 1 will help, but Stroud is without some key Offensive pieces and the Offensive Line continues to struggle in pass protection. The Texans would hope to establish the run against the Ravens, which is the weakness on this side of the ball, but they can only be used as long as the game is competitive, while you also have to factor in the struggles the Houston Offensive Line have had in establishing the run down the stretch.

A lot of the pressure has been on CJ Stroud, although the rookie has obviously accepted that and played very well. In this one he is likely going to be scrambling around and looking to make plays, but that becomes difficult against this Ravens Secondary, even if Marlon Humphrey is expected to miss out.

A backdoor cover is possible with the line as high as it is, while Lamar Jackson has been a Quarter Back to oppose when he has been favoured by more than 3 points. His PlayOff record is abysmal considering the talent, but the Ravens do match up pretty well with the Texans and the outdoor conditions should favour Baltimore a bit more too.

CJ Stroud has looked after the ball very well as the pressure has intensified during this three game winning run, but the Ravens will generate pressure and they may be able to create a turnover or two to just pull away for the win and cover.

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: If this Divisional Round game had been played a year ago, all of the talk would have been about Aaron Rodgers and being overlooked by the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Draft. The veteran Quarter Back has moved on and the Green Bay Packers will head off to face the Number 1 Seed in the NFC with Jordan Love at Quarter Back instead.

It has been an up and down season for Love personally and for this young Packers team, but there has been enough to see to have fans believing that a Championship will be possible in the coming years. This year might be too soon, but the Packers will not be lacking confidence having humbled the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Super Wild Card Round.

This is a significant step up against a rested San Francisco team that are favoured to win the Super Bowl.

Last season an injury to Brock Purdy proved costly in the NFC Championship Game and so there is plenty of motivation for the 49ers to right that wrong, and it is no surprise to see them as a big favourite. Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread when set as the home favourite in the PlayOffs and many fans will be expecting them to improve on that over the next two weekends to earn a trip to Las Vegas in mid-February.

The 49ers will not be overly concerned about back to back home losses to end the regular season, especially as the last one was with the backups.

Having a couple of weeks off has given the starters a boost and the 49ers are coming in looking very healthy, which is a concern for every other team with Super Bowl ambitions. They will certainly feel this health gives them every chance to impose themselves on the Offensive side of the ball and the Green Bay Packers have long had issues trying to stop a Kyle Shanahan San Francisco Offense.

With the Offensive Line intact, the 49ers are expected to run the ball right at the Green Bay Packers and Christian McCaffrey should be able to produce a big game. While the Packers Defensive Line have stiffened down the stretch, they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one San Francisco trot out onto the field and Green Bay have allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the road this season.

Motion and sweeps will give the 49ers a way to establish the run too and McCaffrey can be a big threat as a pass-catcher so the feeling is that the home team will be in third and manageable throughout the game.

Some may see Brock Purdy as a product of the system rather than him being an elite Quarter Back, but it doesn't really matter because he is producing on the field. With Jaire Alexander Questionable, Purdy should be able to use play-action to hit his Receivers down the field, while it also makes it very difficult to get to the Quarter Back for a solid pass rush if the Packers are playing behind the chains.

The 49ers have been very impressive in their dominance in the regular season with all but one of their wins being by double digits and so they have to be respected.

Much is going to depend on the Green Bay Offensive Line in this one as the Packers look to be competitive in this Divisional Round game. A lot of credit has been given to the development of Jordan Love, but the key to this one may actually be Aaron Jones and the Line as they look to establish the run against the 49ers and sustain drives.

The Offensive Line have offered Jordan Love time in the pocket when he has dropped back to throw, but it is much easier to try and contain Nick Bosa and Chase Young if they are in third and manageable. So the key is to make sure that Jones gets things going on the ground, although the 49ers are well aware of the importance of shutting down the Running Back and have played well in recent games when it comes to defending the run.

Jordan Love has been careful with the ball, but that becomes more challenging if the team are chasing points or in obvious passing situations. He has a young Receiving corps that have stepped up as the season has worn on, while Christian Watson should offer more in the Divisional Round having only just returned for the PlayOffs.

There are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if the Green Bay Packers are at their best and Jordan Love may be able to engineer a backdoor cover. They covered as a big road underdog in the Super Wild Card Round and the Packers have a solid 7-4 record against the spread when given points this season.

Of course opposing San Francisco in their own Stadium has proven to be a poor choice, although they have not been as effective covering the spread with the layers putting down big spreads knowing the public want to back them. In this Divisional Round game, the public look to be favouring the Packers, but they do have the qualities at the line of scrimmage on the Offensive side of the ball to find a way to a backdoor cover at worst.

Kyle Shanahan has proven to be a PlayOff master as the home favourite, but there looks to be enough points to be worth getting behind the Packers for a second week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The last Super Wild Card Round game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'upset' the Philadelphia Eagles, although the home team were a trendy pick on the day. That means the Buccaneers get the chance to travel to the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round and Tampa Bay will appreciate the fact that this game is played under a Dome (even if a journalist asked Todd Bowles about how the weather will impact his team, doh).

Make no mistake, the Buccaneers are rightly set as the underdog against a Lions team that held off former Quarter Back Matthew Stafford in a home win last Sunday. That does mean Detroit have a slight advantage when it comes to the rest and recovery, while home advantage is also going to be important for Dan Campbell's team.

All credit has to be given to the Head Coach, but plenty should also be reserved for Jared Goff who has proven he is anything but a bust at Quarter Back. It was his play that helped the Lions to a big road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season in a game hosted by the Buccaneers, although the Defensive unit also had a really impressive showing when these teams met in October.

Unfortunately for the Lions, injury have lessened the impact being made by the Defensive unit compared with earlier in the regular season. They were able to keep the Rams out of the End Zone at key moments in the second half in their Super Wild Card Round win, but the Lions Secondary are struggling and now face a Tampa Bay team with quality Receivers.

The expectation was that there was going to be a significant drop off for the Receivers with the Buccaneers moving from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, but the latter has to be given a lot of praise for the season his team have had. While not perfect, Mayfield has made enough plays to believe he can help his team be a lot more competitive than they were in the home loss.

A lot of pressure will be on the Quarter Back considering the struggles the Buccaneers have had when it comes to establishing the run. There were some positive plays in the win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but this week they are facing a Detroit Defensive Line that have been stout all season and continue to clamp down on the run very effectively.

This most certainly will allow the Lions to let their pass rushers off the leash and they will be expected to hit Baker Mayfield a lot in this game. The Quarter Back has shown toughness to hang in the pocket and make his throws down the field, but that pressure can lead to mistakes and that will be a huge blow to any hopes the Buccaneers have in trying to earn the upset.

Avoiding those mistakes and playing the field position would be a huge success for Tampa Bay, while you also have to expect Baker Mayfield to get the ball to the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton in the passing game. The injuries in the Detroit Secondary has meant that teams have been able to pile up the numbers through the air and Baker Mayfield can at least give his team a chance.

Much like the Lions, the Buccaneers Defensive Line will also be looking to make Detroit one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. Running the ball has been a huge part of the successes that Jared Goff has had at Quarter Back and the Lions have a tandem at Running Back who have been very effective.

However, the Lions struggled to get much going on the ground when facing Tampa Bay in the regular season and it may be tough for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in this one. The latter of the two is likely to have a bigger impact in the passing game, but forcing Detroit to become one-dimensional and rely on the Goff arm would feel like a big win for the road underdog.

This is a young Tampa Bay Secondary, but they showed they are playing at a better level than when these teams met in the regular season. Placing Detroit in obvious passing situations should give the Buccaneers a chance to get into the backfield and rush the Quarter Back, although Jared Goff has been pretty careful with his placement and that is also important.

He does have Receivers who can make some big plays in the passing game and the Lions have been much better at home this season.

However, they did fail to cover as the home favourite last week and this Tampa Bay team have been a feisty underdog.

The Buccaneers are not only 9-3 against the spread as an underdog this season, but that becomes 7-1 against the spread when set as the road underdog.

After the win on Monday Night Football, Baker Mayfield has improved to 3-0 against the spread as the underdog in the PlayOffs and that is a record that has to be respected. In his NFL career overall, Mayfield has been more productive in the role of an underdog and he clearly becomes motivated to upset the odds or perceived slights of being an underdog.

Detroit are a very good team and clearly improved under Dan Campbell, but they are dealing with post-season expectations and the Buccaneers may have a more 'care-free' attitude having overachieved to reach the Divisional Round. The Lions did crush the Denver Broncos as a 5.5 point favourite, but failed to cover here against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers as a bigger favourite.

I would have loved to have gotten a point more for the underdog, but even at this number, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can make enough plays in the passing game to stay with the home favourite.

As long as Baker Mayfield doesn't have a turnover-filled game, the road underdog looks the team to back with the points.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has become a familiar PlayOff match up and it has been clear for a while that the Buffalo Bills were being built to make sure they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. You can't blame the thinking with the Chiefs costing the Bills a potential Super Bowl a couple of times and clearly being the team to beat in the AFC in recent years.

There is one major difference in this game this year though.

This time the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs who are playing on the road for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting Quarter Back.

It will make a difference in terms of dealing with the home crowd and the noise, but the conditions should not be a major problem for the Chiefs to deal with. Only last week they played in about as bad a cold as you can imagine, but this week everything feels a bit more serene in Buffalo and that should allow both teams to produce their best.

We are still expecting cold and wind, but the Bills and Chiefs cannot use that as an excuse- depending on the Saturday results, the winner of this may even be playing for an opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game.

A bigger concern for Buffalo has to be the host of Defensive injuries picked up in their Monday night win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Wild Card Round. The delay means they have also had two days fewer rest than the Kansas City Chiefs who have already beaten one AFC East team in this PlayOff run.

While the Chiefs have come out largely healthy from last weekend, Buffalo have already ruled out Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp and Baylon Spector, while Rashal Douglas, Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard are Questionable. The latter three are expected to suit up, but the Linebackers and Defensive Backs are banged up and that should give the Kansas City Chiefs a chance when it comes to the passing game.

This has been inconsistent all season- Patrick Mahomes is still playing at a high level, but his Receivers are young or erratic and it has meant the Chiefs have not been nearly as explosive as previous years. However, the injuries in the Secondary means the Bills may struggle to cover as effectively as usual and even this Receiving corps available to Mahomes could have a strong outing.

Establishing the run first would be ideal and the Chiefs have been very good on the ground down the stretch, even if Head Coach Andy Reid does not stick with the game plan as he perhaps should. Despite some improvements, injury has again lessened the impact the Bills have had in clamping down on the run and so Patrick Mahomes should be able to throw out of third and manageable spots on the field.

Patrick Mahomes has been well protected by the Offensive Line down the stretch too and that should mean the Quarter Back has the time for this Receivers to beat some of the backups that will be operating in the Buffalo Secondary.

Those injuries will have increased the pressure on Josh Allen and the Offensive unit, which will be without big game Gabe Davis for another outing.

There is no doubt that the Josh Allen legs will be as important as his arm in this one as the Bills look to get something going on the ground. After a strong run of games from James Cook, the run game has just bogged down in recent outings and they are now playing against a Chiefs team that have really focused on trying to clamp down on the run.

This still remains the best way to begin to attack Kansas City and the dual-threat of Josh Allen should make it 'easier' for the Bills to try and get things moving on the ground. Being able to do so means the play-action can be employed, while also slowing down the Kansas City pass rush, which has been a huge importance to the Chiefs winning the AFC West again.

A young Kansas City Secondary has continued to play really well and losing the game-stretching threat of Gabe Davis should allow the Chiefs to play with a bit more aggression at the line of scrimmage. Stefon Diggs has not been used as well as he has in the past, but he will still be a focal point of the Defensive Backs and the Kansas City Defensive unit have to believe they can do enough to get the better of the Bills Receivers.

Buffalo will still make some plays, but it does feel like those injuries in the Defensive unit will give the Kansas City Chiefs every chance of earning the upset. They have a Defensive unit of their own which has played as well as any out there, while Patrick Mahomes will point out that his team lost the regular season game to Buffalo after a controversial refereeing call.

The Chiefs are 9-3-1 against the spread when set as the underdog since 2018 and the feeling is that they will be hugely motivated by being the underdog in this PlayOff game, especially as they are still the defending Super Bowl Champions.

For all of their qualities, the Bills are only a middle of the road team when it comes to covering as the home favourite over the last couple of years. They are also just 3-3 against the spread as the home favourite in the post-season and the play has to be taking the points with the expectation being that the Chiefs can make enough plays against a banged up Secondary to keep this one close.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 75-56-4, + 14.45 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2024 (Saturday 20th January)

Any winning Pick seems to have to go through the wringer before getting over the line, while it is a train straight to the losing station when things have gone wrong.

Taylor Fritz needing about three hundred Break Points, while giving away Breaks as soon as his opponent got to the same position, summed up the way this week has moved.

Another one- how many people would back against Novak Djokovic earning at least one break of serve when opening serve and leading by two sets? Unbelievably he did not even fashion a Break Point having broken serve three times in the first two sets and missed the cover by a single game having won a Tie-Breaker to move through.

Colour me surprised.

It is not making a lot of sense to me- when players who have career records of 4-21 against top 50 Ranked opponents suddenly play better than most top 10 players, you have to wonder what is going on?!

The Australian Open has a history for surprising results, but this has been a tournament when even those winning matches are making it an absolute chore to do so.

Going into the second week, you have to believe that will change, but it just looks like one of those tournaments.

Once again it is a frustrating day when you think of how close a couple of the losing Picks came to a cover... Instead they have produced another losing day, the fifth in six and it just feels like taking one too many body shots when expecting much more of a positive impact.

Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 games v Nuno Borges: A title win in Brisbane and two solid performances against players that are far better than their World Ranking would suggest will have given Grigor Dimitrov plenty of confidence. The feeling is that this Third Round match is against a weaker opponent than the previous two, but the Bulgarian will do well to focus as he looks to reach the second week at the Australian Open for the first time since 2021.

The focus has to come from the fact that Grigor Dimitrov is facing someone that is Ranked higher than the previous two opponents.

Nuno Borges has also eliminated one of the Seeded players in a crushing Second Round win, although that was a real surprise considering this is a player that has not had the most success on a hard court and his warm up results had been pretty poor. This is another step up for Nuno Borges, but he will be playing with some confidence considering manner of his two wins.

The numbers suggest the run is not sustainable without picking up his form, but Nuno Borges will feel that all of the pressure is on the Bulgarian rather than himself. He can come out with little expectation on his shoulders, but Borges has shown very little form on his surface and especially not when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.

His victory in the Second Round was against such an opponent, but Nuno Borges will know how much happier Grigor Dimitrov is on this surface compared to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

The match is very much expected to be played on the Dimitrov racquet- he has opened 2024 in very strong serving form and that has allowed the former World Number 3 to really take an aggressive and proactive approach to the return of serve. While he has faced 16 Break Points in the first two matches, Grigor Dimitrov has created 37 Break Points of his own and the expectation is that the Bulgarian will have Nuno Borges under pressure for much of the match.

There is a competitive spirit about Nuno Borges that does make him potentially a little dangerous, but Grigor Dimitrov is playing at a very good level and should be able to exert that influence on the outcome of the match.

Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 sets v Ugo Humbert: Any time a player is forced to go the distance at a Grand Slam, you do have to wonder how much they may have left in the tank going forward. There are a number of players that have spent more time on the court than they may have imagined, but Hubert Hurkacz did not have as long a match as a five setter may indicate.

He came through relatively comfortably at the end and Hubert Hurkacz has made a solid start to his 2024 season as he quietly moves under the radar. That is a surprise considering the Pole goes into the Australian Open as the World Number 9, but it may be down to the fact that Hurkacz has only reached the Quarter Final at one previous Grand Slam and that was when he played in the Wimbledon Semi Final in July 2021.

Hubert Hurkacz did make the second week in two of the four Grand Slams played last season and so he will be first focusing on at least matching his performance at the Australian Open twelve months ago. The exit of Holger Rune has really opened up his little section of the draw, but Hubert Hurkacz cannot afford to take any opponent lightly.

That is especially the case against Ugo Humbert who has won both of his matches in Melbourne in four sets.

The lefty has reached a career high World Ranking at Number 20 and holds that mark going into the Australian Open, but his run in Melbourne was ended in the Third Round twelve months ago and this is another tough looking match for Ugo Humbert.

Ugo Humbert has a 5-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and that means nothing can be taken for granted against the Frenchman. The serve is a weapon that can build pressure on opponents when Humbert is finding his best form and that is going to be very important for him if he is going to earn the upset in this Third Round match.

Previous matches against Hubert Hurkacz suggests the higher Ranked player will have the edge- they did play out a tight match on an indoor court in Basel at the back end of the 2023 season, but Hurkacz had almost double the amount of Break Points and that usually will lead to a victorious effort.

While there isn't a huge amount between the players in the previous matches, Hubert Hurkacz is winning around 7% more points behind serve and that narrow edge makes all of the difference in a sport of inches.

The Hubert Hurkacz return game has been exposed when he has played the better players on the Tour on the hard courts, but this may be the right opponent for him in this Third Round. Tie-Breakers are likely going to be key, but the slightly superior Hubert Hurkacz serve could see him come through in three or four sets.

Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Miomir Kecmanovic: This is going to be feeling like something of a revenge tour for Tommy Paul who got the better of Jack Draper in the Second Round having lost both previous matches against him. Now he has to face an opponent who actually beat Tommy Paul right here at the Australian Open two years ago and who has already beaten one Seed in the draw.

It is perhaps an unexpected run for Miomor Kecmanovic, but this is a player who has shown solid ability on the hard courts previously.

The last twelve months has been more difficult for Miomir Kecmanovic who had lost nine of eleven matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. However, the Serb will be feeling much better about his level after beating two of those Ranked opponents already in 2024, including in the last Round, while that win over Tommy Paul at the Australian Open will further his belief.

Tommy Paul has won a more recent match against Miomir Kecmanovic when moving past him at the Cincinnati Masters back in August in a match the American dominated. It was only a wasteful display on the Break Points created that made things look a lot closer on the scoreboard, but Paul will know that he needs to just have a bit more composure when he chances come his way.

That was the only negative out of his win over Jack Draper in the last Round, but Tommy Paul has to be happy with his overall level. He is close to his peak World Ranking, but Paul does have to defend points from a run to the Australian Open Semi Final from last year and he does look capable of getting the better of this opponent.

Nothing comes easy for any player that has had some difficulty on the returning side of his tennis over the last twelve months, although the numbers have been decent enough. He has broken in almost 28% of return games played when only considering players Ranked outside of the top 20 and in matches played on the hard courts and you do have to feel that Tommy Paul will find the answers to come through this match.

Miomir Kecmanovic can be dangerous and his win over Tommy Paul at the Australian Open came in a match that was very competitive. However, it was a match in which Paul had more Break Points and the feeling is that he can earn some revenge by getting through this Third Round match in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Navarro - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Clara Burel - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 11-32, - 45.72 Units (86 Units Staked, - 52.16% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2023 (January 20th)

A couple of frustrating moments over the last couple of days have meant being unable to back up the First Round successes with the same in the Second Round.

Instead it was a much tougher couple of days thanks to two matches both seeing a pivotal third set move against the selections made.

At one point it looked like being a solid enough Day 4, but things twisted late and it has been back to back disappointing days for the Tennis Picks.

Day 5 will move into the Third Round action and that should mean better quality of matches.

The best two matches of the tournament so far have both involved Andy Murray, although the Australian Open organisers are going to have to do something with the way they operate the Night Session going forward.

Andy Murray and Thanasi Kokkinakis deserved so much better than having to compete past 3:30am and I am not sure how the organisers expect players to recover and head out onto the court on Day 6 with a realistic hope of winning matches.

Once again it has led to some suggesting best of five set matches should be scrapped, but I don't buy into that and I actually think they would be better off either starting the 'Night' session around two hours earlier or leaving only one match to be scheduled for the time slot rather than two that we have right now.

Either way there will be questions for the organisers and those in Paris and New York City to answer going forward.

Most of the big names are through to the Third Round, although both draws have lost big players too. Rafael Nadal went out on Wednesday and both Casper Ruud and Ons Jabeur, Grand Slam Finalists in 2022, were beaten in their own Second Round matches played on Thursday.

With Novak Djokovic struggling to stay on top of his hamstring complaint and Iga Swiatek also with some fitness doubts around her, I do think both Singles titles are there for the taking for any of the players who have been close, but not quite gotten over the line before.

Picking a winner is still tough- Daniil Medvedev has impressed in the men's and Aryna Sabalenka looks the danger in the women's draw- but at the moment it is still difficult to oppose Djokovic and Swiatek.

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 games v Sebastian Korda: Many have already spoken about the potential of Sebastian Korda and 2023 has started well enough to believe this may be the breakthrough year for the young American. At 22 years old, Sebastian Korda is approaching his career best World Ranking and I think he has to be focusing on cracking the top 20 as a minimum this year, while perhaps looking for a strong run or two at the major tournaments that are played on the Tour.

He reached the Final in Adelaide in the build up to the first Grand Slam of the season and Sebastian Korda managed to push Novak Djokovic to three sets, although he did come up short.

After reaching the second week at both the French Open and Wimbledon before, Sebastian Korda is looking to do the same at a Grand Slam played on the hard courts for the first time. He has matched his run to the Third Round from last year, but Korda will also be well aware that he has to be better than he has produced in the Australian Open if he is going to upset the back to back Runner Up at this tournament.

Daniil Medvedev has looked very comfortable back on the courts at Melbourne Park, but he is a smart player and will know that the players beaten in the first two Rounds are not of the level that Sebastian Korda can bring to the court. Like his opponent, Daniil Medvedev's run in Adelaide was ended by Novak Djokovic, this time in the Semi Final, but he has long been one of the top hard court players on the Tour and I do think the World Number 8 is going to come out on top of this match.

Out of the two players, it feels like the Daniil Medvedev serve is a little more reliable, while he will feel he is one of the top return players on the Tour anyway. That pressure is likely to be exerted on the Sebastian Korda game and the younger player is going to have to play the big points really well to stay with Medvedev in this Third Round match.

Neither of the players has served as well they would have liked at the tournament and that may have something to do with the tennis balls being used, which have been criticised by many of the players. They have contributed to making this feel like slower conditions than players would expect of the hard courts, but I do think it probably suits Daniil Medvedev a little more with his ability to keep the ball in the court.

Sebastian Korda has already faced thirty Break Points in this tournament compared with thirteen for Daniil Medvedev, while the latter has earned significantly more chances to Break even considering he has played two fewer sets.

These two met in Paris a little over twelve months ago and it was Daniil Medvedev's returning that made a big difference in the outcome of that match. I expect the same to happen here in the Third Round and Daniil Medvedev can cover what is a very big line at this stage of the tournament.

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: He may not have shown it, but Cameron Norrie has to have been disappointed to have failed to win the title in Auckland when losing to Richard Gasquet in the Final.

Instead he has talked up the positives of the run and how it has prepared him for the Australian Open and the British Number 1 is a favourite to reach the second week in Melbourne for the first time in his career. The World Number 12 has a pretty unremarkable Grand Slam record for someone in his position and that just seems to underline the fact that Cameron Norrie is very good when it comes to beating those players he should do.

It means having a strong record below the Grand Slam level and Cameron Norrie has largely dominated players from outside the top 20 of the World Rankings as he has compiled a 32-7 record on the hard courts against those opponents in a twelve month period.

His two victories so far this week have come against players Ranked Number 143 and 55, although Cameron Norrie made harder work of the Second Round match than it perhaps should have been. That is a worry for Norrie as the competition gets harder with his next opponent having already beaten one Seed in the tournament.

Jiri Lehecka has only just turned 21 years old and so is learning his craft on the Tour and he has only dropped a single set on his way into the Third Round. The First Round win over Borna Coric has opened up this section of the draw, but Jiri Lehecka will know how tough the challenge in front of him could be having suffered both losses in 2023 to players Ranked inside the top 12, including once against Cameron Norrie.

The serve can be a big weapon for the Czech player when he is at his best, but he has two losses on the resume against Cameron Norrie and both on a hard court. You have to credit Jiri Lehecka for taking a set in both matches, but he has been clearly second best in those matches judging by the numbers.

In those two previous matches, Cameron Norrie has created a lot more break points in both, including when they met in Auckland earlier this month. I have to credit Jiri Lehecka for playing the big points as well as he has against Cameron Norrie, but the British player is the superior player at this stage of their careers and I think that will show up here.

Jiri Lehecka does have a couple of top 20 wins on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but one of those was against Alexander Zverev earlier this month, a player who has only just returned to the Tour following a major injury last June.

As long as Cameron Norrie doesn't lose his focus or feel the nerves about reaching the second week at a Slam, I think he should have enough to win well.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 16-13, + 0.38 Units (58 Units Staked, + > 1% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2022 (January 19th)

There continue to be some very good matches at the Australian Open, although those have featured players lower down the Seeding, and the top names have largely made comfortable progress so far at the tournament.

The Second Round is going to be completed on Day 4 at Melbourne Park and that means a number of British players are in action. It feels like the majority of players who have travelled Down Under from the United Kingdom have been placed in the bottom half of the Men and Women's draw at the Australian Open and the expectation is that there will still be a number involved later this week.

It has also been a good few days for the Tennis Picks after a strong Day 3, although I am not going to have as many selections from the Thursday offering as I did on Wednesday. There are a number of big favourites I do like to cover, but also plenty of close matches that I am looking to avoid in a bid to keep the positive run going.

Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Taro Daniel: On the same court on which he was beaten in five sets and where many felt they may not see Andy Murray in a Grand Slam tournament again, some redemption was had by the former World Number One in the First Round of the Australian Open in 2022. This time Andy Murray came out on the right side of a tough five set win over a Seeded opponent and it does feel like the door could soon open for a really strong run at Melbourne Park where he is a multiple time Runner Up.

Winning the tournament would still be a huge underdog story for Andy Murray and he has admitted himself that he is going to try and take things as they come each day. Having a day of rest will be important for the veteran having reached the Sydney Final last weekend and after spending just eight minutes shy of four hours on court to see off the huge hitting Nikoloz Basilashvili a couple of days ago.

The match up looks much more favourable for Andy Murray in the Second Round as he takes on Qualifier Taro Daniel.

Any Qualifier who has won three matches and then managed to work his way through the First Round of a Grand Slam has to be respected and Taro Daniel is clearly enjoying his summer in Australia having put together a 7-1 record so far. It would be foolish to ignore the fact that only two of those matches have been against players Ranked inside the top 100 and Taro Daniel is 1-1 in those matches.

His service numbers have been strong, but I do think Taro Daniel is going to be tested in a much tougher manner than he has at any stage over the last month. There is no doubt that Andy Murray has a long way to go to reach his peak return numbers from a few years ago, but he is a player that will get plenty of balls back in play and this is a match in which the British player will not be overpowered as he was at times by the strong ball striking of his last opponent.

The Andy Murray serve is actually looking in pretty good shape so far in January and I think it will be difficult for Taro Daniel to have the same success as Nikoloz Basilashvili had in the two matches played against Murray. Over the last two years, Taro Daniel is just 1-10 against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and his return numbers are incredibly poor with just 31% of return points won and breaks in 11% of return games played.

That puts a huge amount of pressure on the Taro Daniel serve and I think Andy Murray can build on the win in the First Round by securing passage to the next Round in much more routine fashion on Day 4 at the Australian Open.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Steve Johnson: At 20 years old it feels like Jannik Sinner is ready to make a move to the upper echelons of the ATP Tour and his experiences at the ATP Finals in Turin underline the point. He is already inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, but this is the year in which he will be looking for a little more consistency from his game overall and also in terms of results at the Grand Slam level.

To highlight the point, Jannik Sinner reached the Fourth Round at the French Open and US Open in 2021, but he lost in the First Round both here and at Wimbledon. In fact half of the eight Grand Slam tournaments the Italian has entered have ended in the First Round and so the win over Joao Sousa on Tuesday will likely have given him a boost in confidence for the challenges ahead.

There are going to be some tough matches to negotiate if he is going to reach the second week at the Australian Open for the first time and Jannik Sinner would be wrong to look past the veteran Steve Johnson, even if he is no longer the player he was.

Even at his best, Steve Johnson had a real problem in finding the right way to approach return games to really push on and enter the top 20 of the World Rankings. These days the American has slipped outside the top 100 and Steve Johnson needs to put some wins together over the coming weeks to get back into a position where he will be given spots in the main draws of the Grand Slams without needing to play the Qualifiers.

A 5-2 month so far will be a boost for the Ranking points and Steve Johnson did well to rally and beat a home hope in the First Round, although Johnson is likely to be the first to admit he has to pick up his level if he is going to beat an opponent like Jannik Sinner. The serve has long been a big weapon for Steve Johnson, but there were some signs of decline behind that shot in 2021 on the hard courts and it will be an area where the aggressive youngster across the net will be looking to attack where he can.

Jannik Sinner is not the best returner just yet, but he has opened 2022 with his numbers looking impressive even if I am not sure he is going to sustain the level over the course of the next several months. When these two met in Washington on the hard courts last August, Jannik Sinner was able to exert the pressure needed to crack through the Steve Johnson serve and I think he will wear down the American in this Second Round.

I doubt Sinner will be able to coast part Steve Johnson and will be pushed in at least one and perhaps two sets, but I think the Italian has the serve to contain the threat coming from the other side of the net. The longer they are out on court, I expect to see Jannik Sinner put more and more pressure on the Johnson serve and eventually he may break the back of the match and pull clear for a cover of a pretty wide mark.

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: You would be overlooking a player like Ricardas Berankis if you were to judge him solely on his career best World Ranking as I think the talented player should be earned a much higher spot than the Number 50 he achieved. That was a few years ago and Ricardas Berankis is barely holding onto a top 100 Ranking these days, but he will feel he has nothing to lose and has the kind of tennis that is capable of pushing the very best players on the Tour.

You could see that talent in the competitive loss to Rafael Nadal in the lead up the Australian Open, but Ricardas Berankis did have a very tough match in the First Round that lasted close to four hours and five sets and it may play a part in this one too.

One of the main reasons that Ricardas Berankis has not been much higher up the World Rankings is a relatively vulnerable serve compared with the very best players. It was the main reason he was beaten by Nadal in the warm up event, and Berankis has won just under 59% of service points played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts throughout his career.

While the return has been effective for him at the lower level, Ricardas Berankis has broken in just 14% of return games played against those opponents across twenty-seven matches and I do think he will have issues trying to get into the Andrey Rublev service games.

The top ten Ranked player has played his first match of 2022 in the First Round at the Australian Open and Andrey Rublev looked like he was refreshed and ready for another big year on the Tour. He dominated that match and Andrey Rublev has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months

Andrey Rublev was broken just once in his first match and he has a very effective return of serve, which should put him in a position to win and cover in this Second Round match. It is a big spread, but Rublev will have the break point chances to win at least one set with two more breaks of serve than Ricardas Berankis and that can make all the difference in the handicap selection.

These players have met twice before and those matches have ended 1-1, but the last of those was in September 2019. Andrey Rublev won that day, but he is much improved, while we have seen the best of Ricardas Berankis and I think the difference will be wide enough for the Russian player to earn another good, straight sets win as he had in the First Round.

MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 6.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anett Kontaveit - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Danielle Collins - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 18-8, + 13.20 Units (52 Units Staked, + 25.38% Yield)