NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Divisional Round (Saturday 17th January-Sunday 18th January)

If you wanted to sum up how this season has seemed to go for the NFL Picks, seeing the late drama in a number of the Wild Card Games all working against the selections summed it up.

As a fan you couldn't help but be excited not only by what we were watching, but what kind of drama that may still await with the final eight teams now set.

However, for the selections, seeing the Rams and Packers blow big leads on their way to non-covers or outright defeats and then followed by the Jacksonville Jaguars losing deep in the Fourth Quarter and the Eagles somehow failing to win their own games on Sunday, it all added up to another bitter blow in what has been a poor season for the selections.

At this point, I would be happy to see more quality games and there is no doubt that picking a winner remains incredibly difficult.

The Buffalo win in Jacksonville is huge, but they have to play a well rested Number 1 Seed on the road, while the Seattle Seahawks look well balanced, although who would trust Sam Darnold in a really big moment?

Out of all the teams remaining, the Los Angeles Rams look best on both sides of the ball, but a road game in Chicago in January is always going to bring its challenges.

New England's win over the Los Angeles Chargers was a solid one, but Drake Maye will need to be better and the Patriots continue to look like a team that is overachieving thanks largely to the schedule that has been given to them.

As for the others, there are plenty of plusses and minuses around them and this really feels like a small window for many of those teams as far as Super Bowl success is concerned with a stronger looking field expected to be involved in twelve months time.

Over the next couple of days, the Divisional Round of the Playoffs will be completed and that means there are now just seven games left in the 2025 season.

The Picks from the four games to be played can be read below, although it has been the kind of season when picking the other side might make sense for readers.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos Pick: You could make a reasonable argument to say the winner of this AFC Divisional Round Game will be the favourite to reach the Super Bowl.

The Buffalo Bills (13-5) would have to sweep their way through two more road games, but you would likely set them as favourite against either New England or Houston even in that spot. First they have to beat the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, although the well rested Denver Broncos (14-3) will feel they have something to prove having been completely crushed by the Bills in the post-season twelve months ago.

With the spread as short as it is, the Broncos will be taking plenty of motivation from the lines from Vegas too.

Coming into this Divisional Round after a Bye Week has to be a bonus and you also cannot ignore how well Sean Payton has prepared his team with rest. This is also a relatively short week for the Buffalo Bills who were winning on Sunday in the Wild Card Round, and that is something the Broncos have to make count.

However, there are questions to answer for the Number 1 Seed and most are in relation to the Offensive problems they have had for much of the season. The Broncos have found a way to win games, which cannot be dismissed, but Bo Nix and company have been erratic to say the least and Sean Payton was not very happy with the Week 18 efforts from his players on this side of the ball.

Earlier this season, the Broncos Offensive Line were really powering things, but that has not been the case in recent games. JK Dobbins has been a miss and is set to be absent on Saturday, even as he continues his rehab on the field, while too many mistakes have been committed by the Linemen which has kept the Broncos behind the chains.

Running the ball against the Bills has been a successful game plan for much of the last several months, but you have to believe they are going to be looking to force Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. The Quarter Back is one who is happy to scramble for First Downs when he has needed to do that, but this Buffalo team are well aware of those kinds of players thanks to Josh Allen and so there is a belief the Bills can clamp down on the run.

Trevor Lawrence did show what can be achieved by throwing 200 yards and adding 31 rushing yards so there is some encouragement for Box Nix, although he has to hope the Broncos can keep him in front of the down and distance.

We have seen Bo Nix produce some very good looking numbers from the Quarter Back position, but the last couple of starts have not been amongst those. This Bills Secondary has played well over the course of the season and there will be a feeling in Buffalo that they match up well with the Broncos on this side of the ball, which has to offer plenty of encouragement to the team.

The Bills also have Josh Allen.

Despite multiple injuries, Josh Allen willed the Bills to a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars as looks to make sure the absence of the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is not a missed opportunity for his team. The Quarter Back is going to put it all on the line, but he has unfortunately lost a couple more Receivers and that leaves Buffalo stretched, which makes things that much tougher against an elite Defensive unit like the one Denver have.

Like the opposition, Denver have to feel they know how to play a mobile Quarter Back pretty effectively and they will not want Allen to beat them with his legs.

James Cook can have some success running the ball and there is a suggestion that the slight edge at the Line of Scrimmage is with the Buffalo Offensive Line rather than the Denver Defensive Line. This is going to be the key to the outcome of the game with the Bills looking to keep the team in front of the chains and somewhat negate the powerful pass rush the Broncos bring onto the field.

Any time Josh Allen and company are behind the chains, you have to feel the Denver pass rush will have a big impact on the game and especially with Buffalo being down multiple Receivers. There are still those that can make plays, but this is a productive Denver Secondary and quicker throws may be the best way to move the chains.

The Broncos Secondary ended the season looking very comfortable, but Josh Allen is a special Quarter Back and that is what may give the road team a narrow edge.

Turnovers are going to be absolutely crucial to the final outcome and this looks a game that will come down to the wire.

Number 1 Seeds have tended to struggle in this spot when facing a 6 or 7 Seed, while those teams who earned wins on the road in the Wild Card Round have a strong covering record in the Divisional Round.

Effectively this is a game that is set as a pick 'em and hosts have tended to find a way through to the Championship Round, albeit not necessarily with a very good covering record. The outright winner is likely to cover either way and the narrow edge has to be with the superior Quarter Back, while the Bills look like they match up pretty well with this Denver team.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: A Bye was earned by beating the San Francisco 49ers (13-5) in Week 18 of the regular season, but the Number 1 NFC Seed Seattle Seahawks (14-3) have suffered a scare.

On Thursday, it was announced that Sam Darnold had been placed on the injury report and considered Questionable to start this Divisional Round Game, although the Quarter Back has downplayed suggestions that he would not suit up.

Two regular season games were split by these NFC West rivals, although the second one was the most important with the Seahawks beating the 49ers on the road and securing the top Seed. However, San Francisco can take confidence from the win in Seattle back in Week 1, while there will be little sympathy for an injury suffered by the hosts considering what the 49ers have been through in the campaign.

Another one was suffered last week in the Wild Card upset of the Philadelphia Eagles- George Kittle is out for the rest of the Playoff run, while Fred Warner is not going to be ready to suit up this week as he was hoping.

Brock Purdy found enough connections with his makeshift Receivers to earn passage past the Philadelphia Eagles, but now has to lead the San Francisco 49ers to find a way to move the ball against a very good Seattle Defensive unit. Just two weeks ago, San Francisco had fewer than 200 Offensive yards against Seattle, although the return of Trent Williams is a big boost for the Offensive Line.

Trent Williams is not at 100%, but it may help in the run blocking against a stubborn Seattle Defensive Line.

Getting anything from Christian McCaffrey on the ground would be considered a boost for the San Francisco Offense, although it is clear that the Running Back is going to be most effective as a catcher coming out of the backfield.

There has to be a huge amount of respect for how the Seahawks have played on the Defensive side of the ball, but Kyle Shanahan will have used the short week to at least find some ways to get his team to move the chains.

The short week is far from ideal- the 49ers are also coming off a game on the East Coast, but they will feel they can have a little more success than they produced in the Week 18 defeat.

Importantly the San Francisco 49ers look capable of keeping this one close on the scoreboard with the way they match up with the Seahawks on the other side of the ball.

If Sam Darnold is limited, that will certainly help, while an appearance from Drew Lock would certainly tighten the margins.

Everything that is happening in the Quarter Back room should only have strengthened the approach that the Seahawks will take to the game- they are going to pound the rock over and over again against a 49ers Defensive Line that has been worn down by injuries and who continue to allow teams to have considerable success on the ground.

Two weeks ago, Seattle had 180 rushing yards against the 49ers and they will be looking to pick up from where they left off and just keep the pressure on this NFC West rival.

That should keep the pressure from the Quarter Back, regardless of who it may be, and gives the Seahawks the edge in the straight up market, but perhaps not the spread.

A strong Head Coach like Kyle Shanahan will have new looks for the Seahawks and San Francisco may only need 13 points to earn a cover.

For all of the problems San Francisco have had, they only allowed 13 points in the Week 18 loss and they allowed the same number when they met in Week 1.

Brock Purdy is expected to be better with Trent Williams on the Offensive Line and road teams are 4-2 against the spread when facing Divisional rivals in this Round of the Playoffs.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points are also 29-17-1 against the spread in the Divisional Round of the post-season.

Number 1 Seeds have had poor records covering in recent years in the Divisional Round, as already mentioned, and the San Francisco 49ers are strong enough to keep this one competitive, even in a losing effort.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: Two of the top Defensive units in the NFL meet in this Divisional Round Game on Sunday when the New England Patriots (15-3) host the Houston Texans (13-5).

They were both set as relatively narrow favourites in the Wild Card Round, but both the Patriots and Texans dominated behind these Defensive units.

However, it is Houston who have drawn the short straw by having to play on Monday Night Football in the Wild Card Round and that means having to compete on the road on a short week.

Much is going to depend on the Houston Defensive unit and they will take a huge amount of encouragement from the Drake Maye struggles against a more than competent Los Angeles Defense last week. The Texans will feel they have an even better unit than the Chargers and will be looking to confuse the young Quarter Back.

Running the ball is going to be the first target for the New England Patriots and they have had success doing that behind this Offensive Line, although rarely going up against a unit like this Houston Defensive Line. This battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be important in cold conditions and the Patriots will be keen to place Drake Maye in positive yardage situations, while also being able to slow down the fierce Houston pass rush.

There will be opportunities for Maye and the New England passing game if they are able to stay in third and manageable spots, although nothing is going to come easy in these conditions.

It will be tough for the hosts, but it is also going to be hugely challenging for the road team who are used to much warmer conditions than they are likely to find in Foxboro.

One of the big criticisms of the Houston Texans has been the performance of the Offensive unit and there is pressure on them to find enough points to help out the Defense.

The Texans will be looking to do the same as the Patriots and that is establish the run, but the Offensive Line have not played at the same level as the one New England will run out on the field. So while the Patriots will have belief in what they can do at the Line of Scrimmage, it may be tougher for the Houston Texans against a Patriots Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run.

CJ Stroud may be able to move around to clear away from the pass rush pressure, which can be something to slow this New England rush, but he is also going to be severely challenged when it comes to throwing against this Secondary.

Not only does it look like Christian Gonzalez is going to suit up for New England, but Houston are set to be without Nico Collins who is the big target for Stroud and that could make things very difficult.

The Fumbles in Pittsburgh were not punished and the Quarter Back is going to have to be close to his best if he is going to lead the Texans to a second consecutive road win.

There is a positive history for those teams chasing second road wins in succession in the Divisional Round, while it has been noted that hosts have been good at winning, but not necessarily covering.

However, the slight edge has to be with the New England Patriots to be able to do enough, as they did in the Wild Card Round, and the feeling is that Drake Maye can out-perform CJ Stroud in a game that could come down to the passing game.

Turnovers could change the entire momentum of this game, which is going to be close, but the New England Patriots can cover even in a relatively low-scoring win to progress to the AFC Championship Game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears Pick: If you were to suggest the most likely winner of the Super Bowl because of the balance of the team, you may point out the Los Angeles Rams (13-5) as the team to beat.

However, a couple of slips late in the season has meant the Rams have had to enter the post-season as one of the Wild Card teams and has meant having to win at least twice on the road.

Despite an injury suffered by Matthew Stafford, which had slowed down the Rams and looked to be a costly issue in the eventual win over the Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles have made it through to the Divisional Round.

Now they have to pack the bags and travel to the Chicago Bears (12-6) who produced a historic Playoff comeback to beat the Green Bay Packers last week.

As you may expect in January, it was always going to be cold in Chicago.

However, the temperatures are going to be exceptionally cold on Sunday evening when this game kicks off and there will be snow flurries too, which is going to make it very challenging for Matthew Stafford and the Rams.

The Quarter Back has huge experience of playing in cold weather having been a part of the Detroit Lions in the NFC North before heading to a warmer climate in Los Angeles. That will help Matthew Stafford prepare, mentally if nothing else, but even compared with previous standards of road games in Chicago and Green Bay, this is going to be something unique.

Some of the Rams have already been downplaying the weather, but it is a huge factor in this one.

In normal conditions or in a Dome setting, you would really like how the Rams match up with the Chicago Bears on the Offensive side of the ball.

While they will usually go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them, the Rams Offensive Line have been very productive at setting the tempo by winning at the Line of Scrimmage and putting a strong running game on the board. The likelihood is that the Los Angeles Rams will want to keep the ball on the ground at times in the conditions expected and they are expected to have success when they do that.

This Offensive Line also gives Matthew Stafford protection and he would carve up this Chicago Secondary, but again the weather is going to be a factor when it comes to throwing and catching.

After the huge comeback put together by the Bears in the Wild Card win over rivals Green Bay, Ben Johnson and the fans will have a lot of faith in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. Some of the Bears Receivers have also stepped up and Williams plays behind an Offensive Line that will offer him some time, although the same problems with the conditions will have to be overcome.

Much like the opposite unit, the Chicago Offensive Line have been very strong this season and they have been important in opening up the running lanes for the Bears.

Recent outings have been more challenging, but the Bears will have noted the success teams have had in the last few games against this Rams Defensive Line. Keeping that powerful Offensive unit on the sidelines to really feel the cold would be a huge win for the Chicago Bears and there is every chance that they can put a game plan together to keep this one close.

Sean McVay has admitted he will be speaking to his close friend Matt LaFleur, who happens to be the Green Bay Head Coach, but ultimately this is a Head Coach with a Super Bowl Championship on the resume. You have to expect the Rams will have a good plan, even in the poor conditions, but they are a road favourite and those teams are just 1-4 against the spread in the last five Divisional Round Games in that situation.

The Rams do look like having all of the ingredients to win another Super Bowl, but having a hook over a key number 3 makes the Chicago Bears worthy of backing to avoid a blowout defeat.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 48-63, - 20.05 Units (111 Units Staked, - 18.06% Yield)

NFL Week 18 Picks 2026 (Saturday 3rd January-Sunday 4th January)

And before you know it, we are into the final Week of the NFL regular season.

There are still some things in play in Week 18, but perhaps not as many as the League would have wanted.

However, that has not stopped the broadcasters from being able to select some 'winner takes all' offerings from the final set of games and the NFC South and AFC North Divisional games are set for big spots.

The Las Vegas Raiders are almost certainly going to be 'on the clock' when the regular season comes to a close, while the fourteen teams entering the NFL Playoffs are all going to believe the year is going to begin with a Super Bowl Championship.

You can certainly make the case for a number of teams to contend for the Championship in what has been a very wide open NFL season and that should be good viewing for neutral fans all around.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: There will be a lot of regret in Atlanta that the Falcons are already eliminated considering how open the NFC South Division has been, but they may yet have a big impact on the final standings and which team will be playing in the post-season.

The Falcons are still involved after upsetting the Los Angeles Rams in Week 17, although they will not be a factor if the Carolina Panthers (8-8) are able to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) for the second time in three weeks.

It remains the ultimate focus for the Panthers who will not want to be nervously watching Sunday results and hoping they are still able to move through to the Playoffs via the backdoor. An Atlanta win over New Orleans will mean the Panthers are in no matter what happens on Saturday, but it has been made clear to the players that the only control they have over the situation is winning this game in Tampa Bay.

Things are much, much clearer for the Buccaneers who know their grip of the Division has been loosened by losing a number of tight games over the last month.

That includes a late Interception in the defeat to the Panthers in Week 16 when the Buccaneers looked on course for at least a game-tying Field Goal and perhaps the go-ahead Touchdown. Everyone associated with the Buccaneers have been feeling the disappointment of recent results and Quarter Back Baker Mayfield will need to be at his absolute best if Tampa Bay are alive for at least one more day.

He started the season in fine form, but Mayfield has been playing through injury and that has perhaps contributed to the back-breaking mistakes he has made. Interceptions are one thing, but second half Interceptions hurt so much more and that has become a feature for the Buccaneers, who would have been in a 'winner takes all' spot if they had not been upset by the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.

They cannot change that now and the fans will be expecting a big effort to at least maintain having a chance of playing more Football in January beyond this week.

Injuries have been a big part of the season for the Buccaneers, but they will feel they can run the ball with some success in this one. However, Head Coach Todd Bowles has suggested that too much stock was placed in this aspect of the Offense in the loss to the Carolina Panthers and this time they may choose to use the pass to open the running lanes.

In recent games, teams have been able to pound the rock with some success against the Panthers Defensive Line and the Buccaneers are set to have key performers on the Offensive Line available for this game.

Tampa Bay will want to establish the run to at least slow the Carolina pass rush, which has been a big weapon for the Panthers in recent games and contributed to stronger play out of the Secondary. They will be tested by the likes of Mike Evans, who has shown how much he has been missed for long stretches of the season, and the Buccaneers will note that they had more Offensive yards than the Carolina Panthers in the Week 16 loss.

On that day it proved to be the sole Interception thrown by Baker Mayfield which made the difference, and the Buccaneers have been speaking about playing a clean game.

The same will be said for the Carolina Panthers who will certainly feel they can run the ball with success in this one too and that will help ease the pressure on Bryce Young. The Quarter Back has shown positive flashes, but there are still plenty of outings like the one in Week 17 in which Young has struggled in the passing game and that has perhaps held the Panthers back.

Bryce Young should have more time than Baker Mayfield and he should be in third and manageable spots on the field, but he did not reach 200 passing yards in the win over the Buccaneers and has struggled for consistency. If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can get in front, they will certainly feel they can contain the Carolina passing game for long enough to earn the win and continue the home dominance of this Divisional rival.

Nothing has come easy for a team that has gotten used to losing close games, but the Buccaneers were driving for a win in Week 16 and this time they can use home field to just edge past the Panthers and then hope the Atlanta Falcons fail to win the final game of the season on Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: After the Los Angeles Rams were beaten on Monday Night Football to put the NFC South in a funny position going into the final Week of the regular season, it was also a result that has massively cleared up the top of the NFC West.

Three teams will be heading to the post-season from the NFC West, but two of those will be out on the road.

One of those is the Los Angeles Rams, but the other is going to be decided on Saturday when the Divisional lead is fought out between the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4). Avoiding defeat is the focus for the Seahawks, but a loss would hand the 49ers the top Seed in the Conference and the Divisional title having already beaten Seattle on the road back in Week 1 of the season.

So much has changed for the 49ers since then with injuries decimating the Defensive unit and playing without Quarter Back Brock Purdy for a huge part of the regular season. With that in mind, all credit has to be given to Kyle Shanahan and his Coaching staff for putting the 49ers in a position where they can win the NFC West and earn the top Seed in the Conference.

At the same time, credit has to be given to the Seattle Seahawks for the season they have put together and Sam Darnold will feel this is another chance to prove himself as capable of winning a big game.

The Quarter Back led a huge comeback against the Los Angeles Rams a couple of weeks ago to keep the Seattle Seahawks on track for the top Seed in the Conference and he will have been encouraged by the San Francisco Defensive struggles in the 49ers win over Chicago last weekend.

Both teams are in a tough spot- Seattle had to play in the early Eastern time slot last week and San Francisco were on Sunday Night Football meaning this short week feels shorter than usual.

However, there will be no excuses with so much on the line not only for the Division, but potentially for the run to the Super Bowl.

Seattle might be on the road, but they are going to be confident in what they can do with the ball in hand.

In recent games, the Seahawks Offensive Line have shown they can play January Football by helping establish the run and Seattle are expected to have considerable success on the ground. Last week the Bears were able to execute very well when running the ball to keep the Quarter Back in front of the chains and and the Seahawks will look for a similar approach to make sure they are extending drives.

This should mean Sam Darnold has time to find his Receivers when he does drop back to throw, while the Quarter Back is not expected to be under a lot of pressure after the injuries San Francisco have suffered in the pass rush department. All of that suggests that the Seahawks can have successes like the Bears and Indianapolis Colts have had against the 49ers in the last couple of weeks and that will shift the pressure onto Brock Purdy and the San Francisco Offensive unit.

In those games Brock Purdy has more than handled the extra pressure and he will be confident with the likelihood of having George Kittle back.

However, Trent Williams is expected to missing on the Offensive Line and that is a massive blow for the 49ers who may struggle to run the ball with any consistency. It was already going to be a test against this Seattle Defensive Line, but without Williams it is so much tougher and that will mean it is up to Brock Purdy.

The Quarter Back has shown he can make big plays with his arm and his legs in leading the 49ers to high-scoring wins over the Colts and Bears, but those Defensive units do not stack up to the capabilities of the Seattle Seahawks.

Brock Purdy has been well protected, but the Seattle Secondary have played at a very good level all season and so it may be tough to replicate recent outings produced by the Quarter Back. Instead drives may stall and the 49ers may be a bit too one-dimensional, which could mean the momentum ends up being with the Seattle Seahawks.

The 49ers have won seven of the last eight between these NFC West rivals, but the sole exception in that run came in the San Francisco home loss to Seattle last season.

We could see the Seahawks make it back to back wins at the Stadium that is hosting the Super Bowl in February and that will make Seattle a real threat to return here for the big game in the weeks ahead.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: There is still an outside chance that the Houston Texans (11-5) can win the AFC South, but they will need to win this game and hope the Jacksonville Jaguars lose when facing the Tennessee Titans. That looks unlikely, but the Texans will be playing next week in the Wild Card Round of the post-season, no matter what happens in Week 18.

Winning the Division would mean a home game in the Wild Card, but everything is suggesting the Houston Texans would actually be heading onto the road and very likely against the aforementioned Divisional rivals Jacksonville.

Nothing suggests the Texans will be resting key players in this one in preparation for next week and the start of the Playoffs and that gives Houston the edge in this game.

They are hosting the Indianapolis Colts (8-8) who will be motivated by wanting to end the season with a winning record, but injuries have stacked up and that has ultimately cost the Colts. Philip Rivers came out of retirement to try and help Indianapolis find a win or two that may have been enough to earn a spot in the post-season, but it was not to be and Rivers is not going to be starting this final regular season game.

Instead it is Riley Leonard who will be given a first start in the NFL as the Colts look to analyse what they have in the young Quarter Back, although it seems harsh to do that against this Houston Defensive unit.

It is the Houston Defense that has been the main reason the Texans have won eight in a row and built up considerable momentum to take into the Playoffs.

The Texans Defensive Line will certainly feel they can clamp down on the run and see if the Indianapolis Colts trust Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm. That is going to be a huge challenge for an inexperienced Quarter Back, especially against a Secondary that loves to turn the ball over, and Leonard being asked to make plays from third and long spots on the field looks tough.

Even with that in mind, this does feel like a big spread considering how Offensively challenged the Houston Texans have been this season- the Defensive unit, as stated before, have been the key, and CJ Stroud and company have some making up to do if they are going to offer the same kind of quality when they have the ball.

In saying that, this may be a Defensive unit that Houston can expose and especially if they are able to create short fields.

Credit has to be given to the Colts Defensive Line for the way they have continued to fight at the Line of Scrimmage, but the Secondary have picked up too many injuries and that has allowed Quarter Backs to attack the Colts with plenty of success. We have seen the likes of Brock Purdy pile up the Offensive numbers against the Colts and there are some key starters sitting out in Week 18, which can only aid CJ Stroud in his bid to show rivals that this Houston team have some firepower that deserves to be respected.

The Quarter Back should have time when he steps back to throw, and he should be able to hurt this Colts Secondary.

With a couple of turnovers, the Houston Texans may just end up pulling clear of a visiting team that will look back at this season with some regret and one that may lose some motivation if they fall a couple of scores behind.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: A big home loss in Week 17 has locked the Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) into the Number 7 Seed in the NFC Playoff Bracket and so the focus in Week 18 is simply getting healthier. That means a host of starters will be missing for this final game of the regular season and the Packers have already chosen third string Quarter Back Clayton Tune to begin this game.

A surprising decision by the Dallas Cowboys to cut Trevon Diggs may have worked for the Packers who picked him up to improve the Secondary, which has been struggling without the pass rush pressure up front.

He is another who may be worked out during the week to get ready for the Wild Card Round and there are a host of Green Bay players who just need a bit of time to see if they can recover physically and mentally for a post-season run.

Clayton Tune is in an unenviable position when facing the Minnesota Vikings (8-8) who will be keen to finish the season with a winning record, even if the year is not one that they will remember too fondly.

A third string, inexperienced Quarter Back facing a Brian Flores Vikings Defensive unit feels like a huge mismatch, especially as the Packers may struggle to run the ball very well. This all means the pressure is on Clayton Tune to keep things moving, but he could be lured into a couple of mistakes by the Vikings if he is throwing out of pressurised spots on the field.

JJ McCarthy is set to take the field for the Vikings, which is important as they look to end the season with one more win and give the Quarter Back a little more experience. He should be facing a number of Packers backups and McCarthy is still surrounded by a couple of Receivers who have the capabilities of a big bounce-back year in 2026.

Minnesota's Offensive Line should set the table up front and JJ McCarthy is unlikely to be under any immense pressure.

This should mean the Vikings are in a position to comfortably move the chains up and down the field and Minnesota can do enough to cover what is a big line.

Overall it has been a difficult season for the Vikings as injuries and inexperience hit them hard, but they should be able to finish with a flourish against this rival.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: They battled through injuries and came very close to winning in Week 17, which would have given the Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) real motivation to end the regular season on a high.

If they had fought back and beaten the Houston Texans, the Los Angeles Chargers would have been looking to win the AFC West, but the defeat came a couple of days after the Denver Broncos (13-3) had won on Christmas Day.

Both of those results mean the Denver Broncos have won the Division, but Sean Payton's team still need another victory to secure the top Seed in the Conference. They are playing after a mini-Bye and the focus has been on the Los Angeles backups after it was announced that Justin Herbert and a host of starters would not be suiting up.

Technically the Chargers are still fighting for Seeding as they can finish anywhere between the Number 5 and Number 7 spot, but there is also a real feeling that health means much more to them in January than the final Seed. No matter where they finish, the Chargers know they cannot be competitive without getting some of their key players prepared and that is the focus, which leaves them vulnerable to this Divisional rival.

It may not be what the New England Patriots or Jacksonville Jaguars want to hear, but the Chargers have to do what is right for them and one of those two teams can earn 'revenge' when they are likely hosting Los Angeles in the Wild Card Round.

That does mean the Denver Broncos winning this game and it has been made clear to the players that they have to focus if they are going to secure the top Seed in the Conference. Even when the chips seem to be in hand, the Broncos have struggled for consistency and they made heavy weather of beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17.

Bo Nix and company should be able to move the ball with some consistency against a team that will be a shell of the usual level of player that they will send out onto the field.

The Broncos can run the ball with some success and Nix will be throwing against a Secondary that will have some issues stopping the pass. This is a chance for Denver to show that they have an Offensive unit capable of backing up a strong Defensive unit, which is going to be the key to any deep Playoff run.

They are not exactly a unit that you would trust, but the Denver Broncos could make some big plays on the other side of the ball to set up some short fields.

Trey Lance has not lived up to his billing when being Drafted into the NFL and the Quarter Back has a challenging task in front of him, especially with the Offensive Line ravaged by injury and skill Offensive players sitting out.

Even in normal circumstances, the Chargers would know how hard they would have to work to run the ball with any consistency against this Denver Defensive Line, while the banged up Offensive Line has not been able to keep the pass rush out of the backfield. All of that should be on show in this Week 18 game that means so much more to the hosts than the Los Angeles Chargers and it is going to be very hard for Trey Lance to change the narrative.

There is a chance that Lance will show off some of his talent with the Broncos perhaps a little unsure what to expect, but they can also force a couple of mistakes and this should see Denver eventually pull away for a big win.

As mentioned, the Broncos have not exactly been a team that have looked as strong as the record would suggest, but they are rested, prepared and highly motivated and those can all be factors that lead to a solid win for Denver.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: The loss in Week 17 has stopped the Chicago Bears (11-5) from finishing the season with the top Seed in the NFC, but they are still chasing the Number 2 Seed having already clinched the NFC North.

There is going to be some question marks around whether the Bears want to finish with the Number 2 Seed knowing that would mean facing the Green Bay Packers for a third time, but games against San Francisco/Seattle or the Los Angeles Rams are not exactly 'easier'.

Instead the focus looks to be on bouncing back from the Week 17 loss in San Francisco and the Bears will certainly want to earn revenge for a regular season loss to the Detroit Lions (8-8) who have surprisingly been eliminated. This should also mean something to Head Coach Ben Johnson against the team where he was Coaching last year and who thumped Chicago pretty comfortably earlier in the season.

This time the Lions are ravaged by injury, although they are going to have Jared Goff playing at Quarter Back, and the game is being played at Soldier Field. An outdoor game in the elements of Chicago may not exactly been the most appealing to the Lions team that have nothing to play for and that may show up in this game.

Jared Goff and company will have noted how the 49ers moved the ball against the Bears last week and look to follow suit, but there are so many key players missing for the road team.

The Offensive Line have been worn down and that has seen the Lions really struggling to establish the run in recent games- failing to do that makes it very difficult for this team to function as they would like, while Goff is without a number of Receivers that are going to get healthy and have big returns next year.

Prior to the loss to the 49ers, the Chicago Bears had looked a little stronger in the Secondary with important names returning for them, but that Week 17 game was a considerable setback.

However, the Lions may not have the personnel to be able to exploit Chicago as much as they would like and the motivation has to be questioned.

January Football usually means looking to run the ball as effectively as possible- where the Detroit Offensive Line has been struggling, the Chicago Offensive Line have been hugely excited about getting to help the team to pound the rock. The numbers have been really impressive in recent games as the Bears have used a tandem at Running Back to very good effect, while they are facing a Lions Defensive Line that have given up monster plays on the ground.

As long as the Bears can continue at their current pace, Caleb Williams will be operating in third and manageable spots from the Quarter Back position and that should see him making his plays down the field before the pressure can get to him. Over the last several weeks, the Lions Secondary have tried to fill the holes that injuries have left behind, but those have eventually worn them down and Williams should be able to make sure the Chicago Bears are in a very good spot to bounce back from a loss and make sure they head into the Playoff with some momentum.

The home team will not want to risk anyone who is needed next week and who is not at full health, but overall the Bears should have the stronger personnel out on the field on both sides of the ball.

Covering will not be easy if attention shifts to next week, but the Lions have not looked fully focused in the last couple of weeks as the Playoffs slipped out of sight. With the setting giving the Bears real home field advantage, the new NFC North Champions can just show the rest of the Division they fully deserve that tag ahead of the Wild Card Round of the post-season.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: For a period in Week 17, it felt like the NFL was going to have to deal with the worst case scenario of having most key Playoff slots confirmed before the final week of the regular season. Things changed and they did have a couple of key games that could be placed in high-profile spots.

The game that will round out the 2025 regular season on Sunday Night Football will also determine the final Playoff place when the AFC North is decided.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) have once again finished with a winning record under Head Coach Mike Tomlin, although there has been speculation about the future of Tomlin. Fans have not been happy, and missing the Playoffs will be a big blow for the Steelers, especially as they just had to beat struggling Cleveland last week to confirm their place as Divisional Winners.

It was a loss that came twenty-four hours after the Baltimore Ravens had run right through the Green Bay Packers to keep the season alive.

Derrick Henry was the key player just days after the Ravens had been hugely criticised for leaving him on the sidelines in the Fourth Quarter when trying to control the clock against the New England Patriots with a Week 16 lead. They were not going to make the same mistake and Henry crushed the Packers and is expected to be a key figure for Baltimore once again.

However, this week he will be playing behind Quarter Back Lamar Jackson who looks to be trending towards a return to action having missed the win last time out. It has been a season of ailments for Jackson, but there was no way he was going to sit out this huge game and it certainly gives the Baltimore Ravens an edge.

They were beaten by the Steelers at home, but the Ravens will still be wondering how that happened having pounded Pittsburgh on the ground and out-gained them significantly over the course of the game.

Pittsburgh will have TJ Watt back on this side of the ball, but the Defensive Line is going to know they are in for a very tough evening dealing with Derrick Henry and this Ravens Offensive Line. In recent games they have gotten back to basics with the Offensive approach and the assumption is that Henry is not going to be out of the lineup very often now we have reached January when the King really reminds everyone of his qualities.

TJ Watt will have an impact in the passing game, but the Ravens are much more dangerous when they can use play-action, although Lamar Jackson may not be taking too many risks with his legs. That does lessen his impact at Quarter Back, but the return is a boost and the pressure will be on the Steelers to find better Offensive plays than they produced in the very disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns.

It is a big blow that DK Metcalf is going to conclude his suspension this week having become the main target for Aaron Rodgers, while Darnell Washington broke his arm last week. Calvin Austin III is likely to suit up, but the veteran Quarter Back has not been given the kind of options in the passing game as he would have hoped, even if Rodgers has spoken glowingly about his time in Pittsburgh.

Aaron Rodgers will be hoping the Pittsburgh Offensive Line can at least help out and recent performances have been encouraging, although this is an improved Baltimore Defensive Line.

The Running Backs are likely to be a big part of the passing game, but it may not be easy for Pittsburgh to attack this vulnerable Baltimore Secondary without the likes of Metcalf and Washington. Aaron Rodgers has plenty of experience, but could also face plenty of pass rush pressure when he does drop back to throw the ball and that is where the Ravens look to have the slight edge.

This has traditionally been a rivalry that has been very competitive and with the underdog usually making use of the points being offered to them.

However, Baltimore blew out Pittsburgh twice last season and this feels like an opportunity for the Ravens to dominate at the Line of Scrimmage and ultimately allow Derrick Henry to carry them into the Wild Card Round. As long as Lamar Jackson is able to make a few plays, the Steelers could struggle to find enough Offensive output to keep this one close and the Baltimore Ravens can win the AFC North again and take the Number 4 Seed in a wide open Conference.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.81 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 45-54, - 13.54 Units (99 Units Staked, - 13.68% Yield)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2025 (Thursday 25th December-Monday 29th December)

This thread will be extended ahead of the Saturday selections, but for now the focus is on the Christmas Day games.

A tough season for so many of the top teams has made the NFL all the more difficult to read, while the broadcasters are going to be desperate for something to be wrapped up in Week 18 when they get to flex the most meaningful games into prime-time spots.

It is looking increasingly difficult to do that considering how the early Week 17 results have panned out, including a couple more Divisions being wrapped up. Even some of the Seeding is beginning to be set in stone for the Playoffs, making those broadcasting decisions more challenging, and they will be hoping that there is some drama on Sunday and Monday to open up some options for two Saturday slots and the Sunday Night Football finale to the regular season.

Picks from the Sunday games have now been added below after what has been a poor start to the week. Hopefully some of the inches begin to lean back towards the selections after a late Field Goal allowed Washington to cover on Thursday and Los Angeles Chargers shot themselves in the foot consistently in the defeat to the Houston Texans.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: The NFL schedule was put together several months ago and they would have been hoping that this was going to be a pivotal NFC East clash in Week 17 of the regular season.

A primetime spot on Christmas Day is instead being contested by two teams who have had disappointing seasons and allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to become the first repeat Divisional Winner in over twenty years.

At least the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) can say they were pushing the Eagles until earlier this month, but a run of three straight losses has meant elimination.

The Washington Commanders (4-11) have been even bigger disappointments considering they reached the NFC Championship Game and were expected to build on the 2024 successes. Injuries have been a big factor that has worked against the Commanders and they look set to be playing a third string Quarter Back on Thursday.

Josh Johnson will have got some more reps in with the starters, which should help, and he has plenty of experience at the position. However, Johnson has a 1-8 record as a starter in the NFL and at 39 years old, he is not nearly as strong an athlete as he once was, which is going to be problematic for him

Last week, Josh Johnson struggled in relief, although he will feel this is an 'easier' matchup against a Dallas Defensive unit that has been a little inconsistent all season and who may not have the same intensity after elimination as the Philadelphia Eagles had in the Week 16 win over the Commanders.

The Commanders will look to establish the run, although that is an area where the Cowboys have definitely improved as the season has gone on. Injuries in this position has also limited the effectiveness of the Washington ground game and Josh Johnson may not be as willing to scramble as much as he once did.

However, that may not be a bad thing considering the holes that have continued to be exploited in this Cowboys Secondary and even Josh Johnson may have successes. There are some decent skill players around him and Johnson is likely going to have more time in the pocket than he would have had against the Eagles pass rush last week.

Avoiding turnovers is the key and the veteran Quarter Back will note that this Dallas team have struggled to pick up Interceptions all season.

Washington should feel they can move the ball better than they did when Josh Johnson came into the game last week and that is also down to the fact they can prepare the veteran a little better.

At the same time, the Dallas Cowboys have to be really confident that they can have considerable success moving the chains with a well balanced Offensive output.

This should all begin with the Dallas Offensive Line who can push Washington around up front and set up some strong running lanes. Keeping Dak Prescott in third and manageable spots will always feel like a big win for the Cowboys and especially with the tandem of Wide Receivers being amongst the best in the NFL for the Quarter Back to target.

Struggles to stop the ground game has contributed to stronger numbers against the pass in recent games, but the Commanders Secondary have to know that they are facing a significant test this week. For all of the disappointment of missing out on the Playoffs again, Dallas have to be really satisfied with the way Dak Prescott has gone about his business and the Cowboys should have too much firepower in this potential shoot out.

It was Jayden Daniels who started at Quarter Back in the game between these Divisional rivals in Arlington and the Commanders were blown out on that day.

A big effort was put into the game with the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but the Commanders may not be as ready as they need to be on this short week and the Dallas Cowboys can win and cover on the road.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: After coming so close to reaching the Super Bowl two years ago and finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC in 2024, the Detroit Lions (8-7) were expected to have another big push at trying to reach the big game for the first time. There have been positive moments, but injuries have hurt the team on both sides of the ball and the Week 16 upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers places Detroit in an unenviable position.

Time has virtually run out for the Lions to earn a spot in the post-season and they need a number of results to go their way.

Extending hopes for a few more days means needing to win on Christmas Day and then hoping the Green Bay Packers lose to the Baltimore Ravens. Even if that happens, Detroit will enter Week 18 needing to win and hoping for another Green Bay loss and so it is a long shot for the Lions to make the Playoffs to say the least.

Head Coach Dan Campbell will be trying to focus his players on the main ambition of Christmas Day and that is beating the Minnesota Vikings (7-8).

The Vikings won in Week 16 and they are still hoping to finish with a winning record, although this is another team in the NFC North that will look back at 2025 with some regret after a strong 2024 season.

JJ McCarthy at least looked to be rounding into some form and showing why the Vikings were willing to let Sam Darnold walk and give the youngster the keys to the Offensive unit, but his season is over.

A hand injury means no risk will be taken and that also means Max Brosmer is set to make his second career start for Minnesota. His first was far from memorable, although Brosmer will feel more comfortable throwing against this Lions Secondary that is banged up rather than facing the Seattle Seahawks who are in line to finish with the top Seed in the Conference.

There are skilled Receivers who can aid the Quarter Back, but the problem for Max Brosmer is the injuries in other key areas of the Offensive unit.

For starters Center Ryan Kelly is set to miss out and the Running Backs have been hit hard by injury, which means the Vikings may not be able to exploit the problems the Detroit Defensive Line have been having when trying to clamp down on the run. Putting the young Quarter Back in third and manageable would certainly make his life easier, even if the Lions Secondary is banged up, especially as the Vikings Offensive Line have also had some issues in pass protection.

This is something the Lions will look to expose and try and get the ball back to what has been a stuttering, inconsistent Offensive unit.

Last week was expected to be a game in which the Lions Offensive Line could get themselves right and pummel the Pittsburgh Steelers on the ground, but it was a struggle. With that in mind, it may be tough for Detroit to expose some of the issues that Minnesota have been having against the run and that will mean the pressure is on Quarter Back Jared Goff, who has not always handled that very well.

Sacks have to be in play here for the Vikings, while the Minnesota Secondary have played hard all season.

The problem will be if Max Brosmer is not able to move the ball with any consistency and the field position battle is lost.

Add to that the fact that Brosmer has thrown 4 Interceptions in limited playing time this season and there is a feeling that the Lions can make enough plays to eventually crack past this spread and move clear of this Divisional rival.

Detroit failed to do it last week, but they remain a very good team to back after a loss with Head Coach Dan Campbell leading the way and there may be enough Defensive plays made to help the Lions stay alive in the Playoff chase for a few more days at the very least.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Both of these AFC West teams made the post-season at the end of the 2024 campaign and so the schedule makers would have again picked this game for a big spot on Christmas Day expecting it to be one that matters.

It does for the Denver Broncos (12-3) who are still holding onto the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and who are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. They still need to win out to hold off the Los Angeles Chargers for the Divisional title, although a Broncos win and Chargers loss in Week 17 will do the job, while the loss to the Jaguars means there are a couple of threats capable of taking away the top Seed.

When the schedule was set up, the expectation was that the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) would also be contesting Playoff spots considering they have never missed out on a post-season berth with Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back. In fact they have not failed to reach the AFC Championship Game since 2017, but it has been a tough season for the Chiefs and the ACL injury picked up by Patrick Mahomes means the Quarter Back has a lot of recovery to get through before Week 1 of the 2026 season.

He has already begun his pathway towards a return to the NFL field, but the Chiefs have also been eliminated and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 suggests the team are already thinking ahead to the end of the year.

Facing a Divisional rival and being able to play spoiler is going to provide plenty of motivation, but Patrick Mahomes' backup Gardner Minshew suffered an ACL injury of his own in the defeat to the Titans.

All of that means Chris Oladokun is making his first NFL start at Quarter Back having been Drafted into the League in 2022 with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He had a handful of snaps in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Chris Oladokun had an 11/16 outing and 111 passing yards against the Tennessee Titans last week. That will offer him some confidence, but Oladokun has to be the first to know that facing the Titans Defense and the Broncos Defense are completely different challenges and especially after the latter allowed the Jaguars to put up big points against them in Week 16.

Rashee Rice is set to miss out and the Kansas City Offensive Line have not been able to win at the Line of Scrimmage and at least push the ball on the ground to make life more comfortable for the Quarter Back. While Patrick Mahomes was playing the position, you could feel confident that he would make plays down the field, but a third string Quarter Back with little to no experience is going to find it very difficult.

It really does not help that Chris Oladokun is going to be playing behind what has been a turnstile of an Offensive Line and the pressure this Denver team can get up front is going to lead to mistakes and stalled drives.

The Broncos will have to really make a mess of things to lose, but can this team cover with what has been a pretty average Offense?

Creating short fields would certainly help, while the Denver Broncos have to feel they can punish the Chiefs as effectively as the Tennessee Titans did if Kansas City are not fully invested. At the same time Sean Payton will be expecting to get the last big effort from the Chiefs as they look to dent a rival in front of the home fans, but the Broncos Offensive Line can set the table and make life easier for Bo Nix.

The Quarter Back has put up some decent numbers of late, although not necessarily getting going as early as he should, but he is well protected and the Broncos have Receivers capable of making plays for Bo Nix when he does drop back to throw.

Bo Nix had solid passing numbers when facing the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season and he should be able to get the team up to 20-24 points, which may be all they need.

Newst that Kansas City are set to leave Arrowhead may also be a factor in the game with the fans likely to voice their feelings and this just feels like a game that may get away from the Chiefs. The Coaching Staff will do all they can to help the inexperienced Quarter Back, but it is asking a lot against a top Defensive unit and one that will be angry after Week 16 events and Denver may have enough Offensive output to secure a win and cover.

There are going to more starters playing for the Chiefs than when these teams met in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Kansas City were blown out 38-0, but they may struggle for Offensive points again and that can help the road team pull clear.

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: There will be a lot of talk around the Playoff meeting between these teams at the end of the 2024 season, but this Week 17 game is massively important for both the Houston Texans (10-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (11-4).

After the win secured by the Denver Broncos on Christmas Day, the Chargers remain in a position where two wins to close out the regular season will see them take the AFC West Division and potentially the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A loss would mean the end of those hopes for the Chargers and they will be entering the Playoff as a Wild Card team, while at the same time it will allow the Houston Texans to enter Week 18 with a chance to win the AFC South.

There is a bit more pressure on the Texans in that they could allow the Indianapolis Colts to push past them by losing their remaining two games, while the Houston players have spoken about trying to match the intensity of the hosts. There is a real expectation that the Los Angeles Chargers will be fired up to make up for the awful way the season ended in that Wild Card defeat to the Houston Texans.

Four Interceptions were thrown by Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Quarter Back has admitted that he still thinks about his personal performance in that defeat.

Once again Herbert has to be expecting a tough challenge from the Houston Texans who may have the best Defensive unit in the NFL, although they have struggled to stop the run with consistency in recent outings. This Chargers Offensive Line have opened up a few holes at the Line of Scrimmage and that is going to be an important part of this game with the team looking to keep Justin Herbert in third and manageable spots on the field.

Attacking this Secondary is going to be very difficult, while the Houston Texans have a pass rush that will look to get in and around Justin Herbert whenever he drops back to throw the ball.

Jim Harbaugh will have confidence in the Offensive game plan, but the Head Coach will also have a lot of belief in the Chargers Defensive unit.

Houston have won seven in a row, but they have not always been the most convincing on the Offensive side of the ball, although Quarter Back CJ Stroud has plenty of positive experience in his young career. However, unlike the Chargers, the Houston Offensive Line may struggle to help establish the run against a tough Los Angeles Defensive Line.

CJ Stroud has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball, and he has some solid numbers of late- of course it should be noted that the Quarter Back has not faced a Secondary as good as the one the Chargers have been able to trot out onto the field.

Both of these teams look capable of having an impact in the post-season in what looks a wide open Conference, but in this game home advantage and the slightly superior Quarter Back play should come from the Los Angeles Chargers.

It also cannot be underestimated the importance of being able to establish the run and it is the Chargers that may have the edge at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball- if they can do show that on the field, the Chargers may just edge this game and set up a 'winner takes all' game that is likely to be flexed into a prime time spot against the Denver Broncos in Week 18.

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers Pick: After seeing Lamar Jackson go down with another injury and blowing a big lead in the eventual loss to the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens (7-8) are on the brink of elimination. They can hold that off for at least twenty-four hours by winning this game, but Jackson is almost certainly missing out at Quarter Back and we have seen teams dial it in even before elimination has been confirmed.

Head Coach John Harbaugh is now on the hot seat and the Baltimore Ravens have to pick themselves up after the manner in which they were beaten last week being one that will hurt for a while.

The Quarter Back situation is an issue, but the Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) have a similar issue with Jordan Love ruled out and Malik Willis looking like he may need to play through the pain and illness.

Much like Baltimore, the Green Bay Packers have to be wondering how they were beaten in Week 16 at the Chicago Bears, a defeat that likely means needing to on a road run through the Playoff if they are going reach the Super Bowl. A post-season berth has been secured by the Packers, and there is an outside chance they could pip the Chicago Bears to the NFC North Division title, but the Packers may already be thinking ahead to the early part of the New Year when the Playoffs begin.

This could mean avoiding taking unnecessary risks with players and the Packers will need the backup Quarter Back to find a way to lead them to a win.

Malik Willis has shown he is a competent backup, but the issues at the end of the loss to the Bears and the illness he has been dealing with this week is a problem. He should have some spaces to attack against this Baltimore Ravens Secondary as long as Willis is operating close to full health, and the Green Bay Packers do have some quality Receivers who can step up.

Running the ball may be more challenging for the Packers and being in third and long spots will allow Baltimore to try and rattle Malik Willis through the pass rush they have been able to generate.

The Ravens game plan should be pretty straight-forward, although they have been hearing the criticism of the team from the Week 16 loss to the New England Patriots- for some reason Baltimore decided they would sit Derrick Henry when leading by double digits, rather than the obvious appeal of getting their workhorse Running Back to pound the rock and wear down the Patriots.

It would be negligent if Henry is not used in this one with the Ravens Offensive Line happier in running the ball and this Green Bay Defensive Line picking up injuries and finding it a little tougher to clamp down on the run. A backup Quarter Back should mean Baltimore will want to lean on the run game, while Tyler Huntley is capable of moving the ball with his legs if he needs to do that.

Micah Parsons is missing for Green Bay, and that means the pass rush has slowed down, which can only be a positive for Huntley.

That lack of pressure has seen some big holes open up in the Green Bay Secondary and Tyler Huntley should be able to make enough plays to keep the Ravens competitive.

Having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks appealing enough, although it should be noted that Baltimore's intensity in this game is harder to factor with elimination potentially confirmed this weekend. Injuries on both sides of the ball have really hurt the Ravens, but Green Bay have problems at Quarter Back and that can see the road team keep this close, even if Playoff hopes fade as the game concludes.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Depending on how the Houston Texans perform on Saturday, the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) could be in a position to win the AFC South the following day.

They are heading out on the road to face the desperate Indianapolis Colts (8-7) who have not been able to overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and now need to win out, and hope for help, if they are to make the Playoff. Several weeks ago the Colts looked the most likely to win the AFC South, but even the return of Philip Rivers has not been able to turn things around for the Colts and they are on the brink of elimination.

Indianapolis could have Sauce Gardner back to help a Secondary that have been exposed in recent weeks and who just allowed Brock Purdy to carve them up.

However, you have to wonder if he is truly healthy enough to make a big difference for a team that may feel they have blown their hopes of reaching the post-season over the last couple of weeks. Even the motivation to play spoiler for a Divisional rival may not be enough considering how close the Colts will feel they were to making the Playoff and then falling short.

The Colts have at least continued to play hard at the Line of Scrimmage and clamp down on the run, but the Secondary issues have still allowed teams to move the ball up and down the field.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars will be very confident with what they have been producing Offensively having just beaten the Denver Broncos on the road. The Offensive performance in that win is really encouraging and the trade for Jakobi Meyers has opened up the passing game for Trevor Lawrence to show what he can do at the NFL level.

Even if Sauce Gardner is back, the Jaguars have to feel good about their chances to move the chains on this side of the ball, which will shift the pressure onto Philip Rivers.

The veteran Quarter Back did all he could in keeping the Colts competitive in the defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, although this is looking like a tougher test on paper considering how well the Jaguars have been playing on the Defensive side of the ball.

Indianapolis would like to lean on Jonathan Taylor and the running game, but the Colts have been struggling at the Line of Scrimmage in recent outings and that has seen the team have real issues in establishing the run.

Pressure can be generated up front if the Jaguars can push the Indianapolis Colts behind the down and distance, although Rivers' last performance suggests he can have some success throwing down the field.

Of course it is difficult on a short week having lost an important game and the feeling is that eventually the Jaguars will have a bit too much and that will see them pull clear on the scoreboard.

It was the case when the teams met in Florida and the Jaguars can keep hopes alive of perhaps even stealing the Number 1 Seed away from the Denver Broncos.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: If the New England Patriots (12-3) can win out, there is still a chance they could finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, but winning the AFC East would be a huge achievement in its own right. The win at the Baltimore Ravens puts them in a strong position to end the Buffalo Bills dominance in the Division and the Patriots are strong favourites to beat the New York Jets (3-12).

Motivation in the home camp will always be intensified by fact they are in a position to play spoiler for a rival, but the New York Jets are persisting with Brady Cook at Quarter Back and the team have looked like they have drawn a line under this season in recent outings.

Brady Cook is inexperienced, and that has shown, and it is going to be tough for the Jets to find anything consistent on this side of the ball.

They may look to run the ball against what has been a vulnerable looking New England Defensive Line, although the Jets have not really been very effective at that in recent games with teams knowing they do not have to be overly respectful of the passing game. You have to believe the Patriots will take their Secondary to deal with any throws that Brady Cook is able to make and that could see them double down on the efforts to stop the run and force the young Quarter Back to beat them with his arm.

The Offensive Line have not only struggled when it comes to helping establish the run, but they have not offered much pass rush protection either and so this looks like it could be another challenging test for the New York Jets.

Injuries were picked up by the New England Patriots in that battling win over the Ravens on the road and they could be without Running Back TreVeyon Henderson as well as a couple of Receivers on Sunday. However, the Patriots Offensive Line will still feel they can open up significant running lanes up front and that should bode well for Drake Maye and company.

With the problems the Jets have been having in stopping the run, New England should be in strong down and distance throughout the game.

It should mean Drake Maye does have time to target Receivers when he is dropping back to throw the ball down the field and the Jets Secondary have been incredibly vulnerable of late.

Anything other than a New England win would be a huge surprise, but the question is whether they can cover- a stronger Jets team were beaten by 13 points in Foxboro and this New England team are capable of putting up enough points and creating some turnovers to do a little better.

New York should be motivated, but they are also in a position to finish with a high Draft Pick and Brady Cook may not be ready to keep the Jets going on the scoreboard as they try and push the team chasing a high Seed in the Playoff.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The big fightback to beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16 of the NFL season has pushed the Seattle Seahawks (12-3) into a position where they can finish with the top Seed in the Conference. They looked down and out in that Thursday Night Football game, but Sam Darnold showed he can win big games and the Overtime win and a mini-Bye puts the Seahawks in confidence mood.

They will not want to slip up in the bid to win the Division, but the Seahawks have to be aware of the dangers that can be posed by the Carolina Panthers (8-7) who have taken the lead in the NFC South.

There is a chance the Panthers can secure the Division at the end of this week- they need to win and hope the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose at eliminated Miami, otherwise Carolina will be set for a 'winner takes all' game against the Divisional rivals next week.

With that in mind, there may be one eye on the scoreboard to see how Tampa Bay are performing and that could be a factor in this game.

Of course it is not an ideal scheduling spot for the Seattle Seahawks- not only have they beaten the Rams in Week 16, but the Seahawks finish the season against the San Francisco 49ers and overlooking this opponent would be a mistake.

A defeat would open the door for the Rams and/or the 49ers to take the Division and force Seattle to play road games in January and so there should be some real focus attached to this game.

The Seahawks do look like they match up pretty well with this Carolina team, especially on the Defensive side of the ball.

While the Panthers would love to establish the run and keep Bryce Young in third and manageable spots on the field, the Seahawks are a Defensive unit that have been very proud of how they have played the run. There are some holes in the Secondary which can be exploited, as Los Angeles did, but this is not the approach the Carolina Panthers tend to take with the Offensive game plan and Seattle will travel to the Eastern time zone full of belief, especially with the extra rest in place.

There should also be some comfort in the way the Seattle Seahawks want to play this game on the Offensive side of the ball.

Using the Offensive Line to run the ball should be high on the list of priorities and the Seahawks should have considerable success doing that against this Carolina Defensive Line.

Sam Darnold should then have a bit more time to make his reads if the Seahawks are running the ball as they can and he will not have to take too many risks with the ball.

Respect has to be given to the way the Carolina Secondary have been playing and they created a big turnover to beat the Buccaneers last week, but Seattle should be pretty happy with the way this game can be played. Running the ball will make it very difficult for the Carolina Secondary against some of the Receivers that Sam Darnold can target and the NFC West leaders can get the better of the South leaders in this important Week 17 game.

Seattle have won by solid margins when travelling to the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons this season and having that bit more time to prepare for this game can only bode well for them.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 40-48, - 12.09 Units (88 Units Staked, - 13.74% Yield)