NFL Week 17 Picks 2025 (Thursday 25th December-Monday 29th December)

This thread will be extended ahead of the Saturday selections, but for now the focus is on the Christmas Day games.

A tough season for so many of the top teams has made the NFL all the more difficult to read, while the broadcasters are going to be desperate for something to be wrapped up in Week 18 when they get to flex the most meaningful games into prime-time spots.

It is looking increasingly difficult to do that considering how the early Week 17 results have panned out, including a couple more Divisions being wrapped up. Even some of the Seeding is beginning to be set in stone for the Playoffs, making those broadcasting decisions more challenging, and they will be hoping that there is some drama on Sunday and Monday to open up some options for two Saturday slots and the Sunday Night Football finale to the regular season.

Picks from the Sunday games have now been added below after what has been a poor start to the week. Hopefully some of the inches begin to lean back towards the selections after a late Field Goal allowed Washington to cover on Thursday and Los Angeles Chargers shot themselves in the foot consistently in the defeat to the Houston Texans.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: The NFL schedule was put together several months ago and they would have been hoping that this was going to be a pivotal NFC East clash in Week 17 of the regular season.

A primetime spot on Christmas Day is instead being contested by two teams who have had disappointing seasons and allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to become the first repeat Divisional Winner in over twenty years.

At least the Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) can say they were pushing the Eagles until earlier this month, but a run of three straight losses has meant elimination.

The Washington Commanders (4-11) have been even bigger disappointments considering they reached the NFC Championship Game and were expected to build on the 2024 successes. Injuries have been a big factor that has worked against the Commanders and they look set to be playing a third string Quarter Back on Thursday.

Josh Johnson will have got some more reps in with the starters, which should help, and he has plenty of experience at the position. However, Johnson has a 1-8 record as a starter in the NFL and at 39 years old, he is not nearly as strong an athlete as he once was, which is going to be problematic for him

Last week, Josh Johnson struggled in relief, although he will feel this is an 'easier' matchup against a Dallas Defensive unit that has been a little inconsistent all season and who may not have the same intensity after elimination as the Philadelphia Eagles had in the Week 16 win over the Commanders.

The Commanders will look to establish the run, although that is an area where the Cowboys have definitely improved as the season has gone on. Injuries in this position has also limited the effectiveness of the Washington ground game and Josh Johnson may not be as willing to scramble as much as he once did.

However, that may not be a bad thing considering the holes that have continued to be exploited in this Cowboys Secondary and even Josh Johnson may have successes. There are some decent skill players around him and Johnson is likely going to have more time in the pocket than he would have had against the Eagles pass rush last week.

Avoiding turnovers is the key and the veteran Quarter Back will note that this Dallas team have struggled to pick up Interceptions all season.

Washington should feel they can move the ball better than they did when Josh Johnson came into the game last week and that is also down to the fact they can prepare the veteran a little better.

At the same time, the Dallas Cowboys have to be really confident that they can have considerable success moving the chains with a well balanced Offensive output.

This should all begin with the Dallas Offensive Line who can push Washington around up front and set up some strong running lanes. Keeping Dak Prescott in third and manageable spots will always feel like a big win for the Cowboys and especially with the tandem of Wide Receivers being amongst the best in the NFL for the Quarter Back to target.

Struggles to stop the ground game has contributed to stronger numbers against the pass in recent games, but the Commanders Secondary have to know that they are facing a significant test this week. For all of the disappointment of missing out on the Playoffs again, Dallas have to be really satisfied with the way Dak Prescott has gone about his business and the Cowboys should have too much firepower in this potential shoot out.

It was Jayden Daniels who started at Quarter Back in the game between these Divisional rivals in Arlington and the Commanders were blown out on that day.

A big effort was put into the game with the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but the Commanders may not be as ready as they need to be on this short week and the Dallas Cowboys can win and cover on the road.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: After coming so close to reaching the Super Bowl two years ago and finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC in 2024, the Detroit Lions (8-7) were expected to have another big push at trying to reach the big game for the first time. There have been positive moments, but injuries have hurt the team on both sides of the ball and the Week 16 upset loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers places Detroit in an unenviable position.

Time has virtually run out for the Lions to earn a spot in the post-season and they need a number of results to go their way.

Extending hopes for a few more days means needing to win on Christmas Day and then hoping the Green Bay Packers lose to the Baltimore Ravens. Even if that happens, Detroit will enter Week 18 needing to win and hoping for another Green Bay loss and so it is a long shot for the Lions to make the Playoffs to say the least.

Head Coach Dan Campbell will be trying to focus his players on the main ambition of Christmas Day and that is beating the Minnesota Vikings (7-8).

The Vikings won in Week 16 and they are still hoping to finish with a winning record, although this is another team in the NFC North that will look back at 2025 with some regret after a strong 2024 season.

JJ McCarthy at least looked to be rounding into some form and showing why the Vikings were willing to let Sam Darnold walk and give the youngster the keys to the Offensive unit, but his season is over.

A hand injury means no risk will be taken and that also means Max Brosmer is set to make his second career start for Minnesota. His first was far from memorable, although Brosmer will feel more comfortable throwing against this Lions Secondary that is banged up rather than facing the Seattle Seahawks who are in line to finish with the top Seed in the Conference.

There are skilled Receivers who can aid the Quarter Back, but the problem for Max Brosmer is the injuries in other key areas of the Offensive unit.

For starters Center Ryan Kelly is set to miss out and the Running Backs have been hit hard by injury, which means the Vikings may not be able to exploit the problems the Detroit Defensive Line have been having when trying to clamp down on the run. Putting the young Quarter Back in third and manageable would certainly make his life easier, even if the Lions Secondary is banged up, especially as the Vikings Offensive Line have also had some issues in pass protection.

This is something the Lions will look to expose and try and get the ball back to what has been a stuttering, inconsistent Offensive unit.

Last week was expected to be a game in which the Lions Offensive Line could get themselves right and pummel the Pittsburgh Steelers on the ground, but it was a struggle. With that in mind, it may be tough for Detroit to expose some of the issues that Minnesota have been having against the run and that will mean the pressure is on Quarter Back Jared Goff, who has not always handled that very well.

Sacks have to be in play here for the Vikings, while the Minnesota Secondary have played hard all season.

The problem will be if Max Brosmer is not able to move the ball with any consistency and the field position battle is lost.

Add to that the fact that Brosmer has thrown 4 Interceptions in limited playing time this season and there is a feeling that the Lions can make enough plays to eventually crack past this spread and move clear of this Divisional rival.

Detroit failed to do it last week, but they remain a very good team to back after a loss with Head Coach Dan Campbell leading the way and there may be enough Defensive plays made to help the Lions stay alive in the Playoff chase for a few more days at the very least.

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Both of these AFC West teams made the post-season at the end of the 2024 campaign and so the schedule makers would have again picked this game for a big spot on Christmas Day expecting it to be one that matters.

It does for the Denver Broncos (12-3) who are still holding onto the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and who are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. They still need to win out to hold off the Los Angeles Chargers for the Divisional title, although a Broncos win and Chargers loss in Week 17 will do the job, while the loss to the Jaguars means there are a couple of threats capable of taking away the top Seed.

When the schedule was set up, the expectation was that the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) would also be contesting Playoff spots considering they have never missed out on a post-season berth with Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back. In fact they have not failed to reach the AFC Championship Game since 2017, but it has been a tough season for the Chiefs and the ACL injury picked up by Patrick Mahomes means the Quarter Back has a lot of recovery to get through before Week 1 of the 2026 season.

He has already begun his pathway towards a return to the NFL field, but the Chiefs have also been eliminated and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 suggests the team are already thinking ahead to the end of the year.

Facing a Divisional rival and being able to play spoiler is going to provide plenty of motivation, but Patrick Mahomes' backup Gardner Minshew suffered an ACL injury of his own in the defeat to the Titans.

All of that means Chris Oladokun is making his first NFL start at Quarter Back having been Drafted into the League in 2022 with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He had a handful of snaps in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Chris Oladokun had an 11/16 outing and 111 passing yards against the Tennessee Titans last week. That will offer him some confidence, but Oladokun has to be the first to know that facing the Titans Defense and the Broncos Defense are completely different challenges and especially after the latter allowed the Jaguars to put up big points against them in Week 16.

Rashee Rice is set to miss out and the Kansas City Offensive Line have not been able to win at the Line of Scrimmage and at least push the ball on the ground to make life more comfortable for the Quarter Back. While Patrick Mahomes was playing the position, you could feel confident that he would make plays down the field, but a third string Quarter Back with little to no experience is going to find it very difficult.

It really does not help that Chris Oladokun is going to be playing behind what has been a turnstile of an Offensive Line and the pressure this Denver team can get up front is going to lead to mistakes and stalled drives.

The Broncos will have to really make a mess of things to lose, but can this team cover with what has been a pretty average Offense?

Creating short fields would certainly help, while the Denver Broncos have to feel they can punish the Chiefs as effectively as the Tennessee Titans did if Kansas City are not fully invested. At the same time Sean Payton will be expecting to get the last big effort from the Chiefs as they look to dent a rival in front of the home fans, but the Broncos Offensive Line can set the table and make life easier for Bo Nix.

The Quarter Back has put up some decent numbers of late, although not necessarily getting going as early as he should, but he is well protected and the Broncos have Receivers capable of making plays for Bo Nix when he does drop back to throw.

Bo Nix had solid passing numbers when facing the Kansas City Chiefs earlier in the season and he should be able to get the team up to 20-24 points, which may be all they need.

Newst that Kansas City are set to leave Arrowhead may also be a factor in the game with the fans likely to voice their feelings and this just feels like a game that may get away from the Chiefs. The Coaching Staff will do all they can to help the inexperienced Quarter Back, but it is asking a lot against a top Defensive unit and one that will be angry after Week 16 events and Denver may have enough Offensive output to secure a win and cover.

There are going to more starters playing for the Chiefs than when these teams met in Week 18 of the 2024 season and Kansas City were blown out 38-0, but they may struggle for Offensive points again and that can help the road team pull clear.

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: There will be a lot of talk around the Playoff meeting between these teams at the end of the 2024 season, but this Week 17 game is massively important for both the Houston Texans (10-5) and Los Angeles Chargers (11-4).

After the win secured by the Denver Broncos on Christmas Day, the Chargers remain in a position where two wins to close out the regular season will see them take the AFC West Division and potentially the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A loss would mean the end of those hopes for the Chargers and they will be entering the Playoff as a Wild Card team, while at the same time it will allow the Houston Texans to enter Week 18 with a chance to win the AFC South.

There is a bit more pressure on the Texans in that they could allow the Indianapolis Colts to push past them by losing their remaining two games, while the Houston players have spoken about trying to match the intensity of the hosts. There is a real expectation that the Los Angeles Chargers will be fired up to make up for the awful way the season ended in that Wild Card defeat to the Houston Texans.

Four Interceptions were thrown by Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Quarter Back has admitted that he still thinks about his personal performance in that defeat.

Once again Herbert has to be expecting a tough challenge from the Houston Texans who may have the best Defensive unit in the NFL, although they have struggled to stop the run with consistency in recent outings. This Chargers Offensive Line have opened up a few holes at the Line of Scrimmage and that is going to be an important part of this game with the team looking to keep Justin Herbert in third and manageable spots on the field.

Attacking this Secondary is going to be very difficult, while the Houston Texans have a pass rush that will look to get in and around Justin Herbert whenever he drops back to throw the ball.

Jim Harbaugh will have confidence in the Offensive game plan, but the Head Coach will also have a lot of belief in the Chargers Defensive unit.

Houston have won seven in a row, but they have not always been the most convincing on the Offensive side of the ball, although Quarter Back CJ Stroud has plenty of positive experience in his young career. However, unlike the Chargers, the Houston Offensive Line may struggle to help establish the run against a tough Los Angeles Defensive Line.

CJ Stroud has been well protected when he has dropped back to throw the ball, and he has some solid numbers of late- of course it should be noted that the Quarter Back has not faced a Secondary as good as the one the Chargers have been able to trot out onto the field.

Both of these teams look capable of having an impact in the post-season in what looks a wide open Conference, but in this game home advantage and the slightly superior Quarter Back play should come from the Los Angeles Chargers.

It also cannot be underestimated the importance of being able to establish the run and it is the Chargers that may have the edge at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball- if they can do show that on the field, the Chargers may just edge this game and set up a 'winner takes all' game that is likely to be flexed into a prime time spot against the Denver Broncos in Week 18.

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers Pick: After seeing Lamar Jackson go down with another injury and blowing a big lead in the eventual loss to the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens (7-8) are on the brink of elimination. They can hold that off for at least twenty-four hours by winning this game, but Jackson is almost certainly missing out at Quarter Back and we have seen teams dial it in even before elimination has been confirmed.

Head Coach John Harbaugh is now on the hot seat and the Baltimore Ravens have to pick themselves up after the manner in which they were beaten last week being one that will hurt for a while.

The Quarter Back situation is an issue, but the Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) have a similar issue with Jordan Love ruled out and Malik Willis looking like he may need to play through the pain and illness.

Much like Baltimore, the Green Bay Packers have to be wondering how they were beaten in Week 16 at the Chicago Bears, a defeat that likely means needing to on a road run through the Playoff if they are going reach the Super Bowl. A post-season berth has been secured by the Packers, and there is an outside chance they could pip the Chicago Bears to the NFC North Division title, but the Packers may already be thinking ahead to the early part of the New Year when the Playoffs begin.

This could mean avoiding taking unnecessary risks with players and the Packers will need the backup Quarter Back to find a way to lead them to a win.

Malik Willis has shown he is a competent backup, but the issues at the end of the loss to the Bears and the illness he has been dealing with this week is a problem. He should have some spaces to attack against this Baltimore Ravens Secondary as long as Willis is operating close to full health, and the Green Bay Packers do have some quality Receivers who can step up.

Running the ball may be more challenging for the Packers and being in third and long spots will allow Baltimore to try and rattle Malik Willis through the pass rush they have been able to generate.

The Ravens game plan should be pretty straight-forward, although they have been hearing the criticism of the team from the Week 16 loss to the New England Patriots- for some reason Baltimore decided they would sit Derrick Henry when leading by double digits, rather than the obvious appeal of getting their workhorse Running Back to pound the rock and wear down the Patriots.

It would be negligent if Henry is not used in this one with the Ravens Offensive Line happier in running the ball and this Green Bay Defensive Line picking up injuries and finding it a little tougher to clamp down on the run. A backup Quarter Back should mean Baltimore will want to lean on the run game, while Tyler Huntley is capable of moving the ball with his legs if he needs to do that.

Micah Parsons is missing for Green Bay, and that means the pass rush has slowed down, which can only be a positive for Huntley.

That lack of pressure has seen some big holes open up in the Green Bay Secondary and Tyler Huntley should be able to make enough plays to keep the Ravens competitive.

Having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks appealing enough, although it should be noted that Baltimore's intensity in this game is harder to factor with elimination potentially confirmed this weekend. Injuries on both sides of the ball have really hurt the Ravens, but Green Bay have problems at Quarter Back and that can see the road team keep this close, even if Playoff hopes fade as the game concludes.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Depending on how the Houston Texans perform on Saturday, the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) could be in a position to win the AFC South the following day.

They are heading out on the road to face the desperate Indianapolis Colts (8-7) who have not been able to overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and now need to win out, and hope for help, if they are to make the Playoff. Several weeks ago the Colts looked the most likely to win the AFC South, but even the return of Philip Rivers has not been able to turn things around for the Colts and they are on the brink of elimination.

Indianapolis could have Sauce Gardner back to help a Secondary that have been exposed in recent weeks and who just allowed Brock Purdy to carve them up.

However, you have to wonder if he is truly healthy enough to make a big difference for a team that may feel they have blown their hopes of reaching the post-season over the last couple of weeks. Even the motivation to play spoiler for a Divisional rival may not be enough considering how close the Colts will feel they were to making the Playoff and then falling short.

The Colts have at least continued to play hard at the Line of Scrimmage and clamp down on the run, but the Secondary issues have still allowed teams to move the ball up and down the field.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars will be very confident with what they have been producing Offensively having just beaten the Denver Broncos on the road. The Offensive performance in that win is really encouraging and the trade for Jakobi Meyers has opened up the passing game for Trevor Lawrence to show what he can do at the NFL level.

Even if Sauce Gardner is back, the Jaguars have to feel good about their chances to move the chains on this side of the ball, which will shift the pressure onto Philip Rivers.

The veteran Quarter Back did all he could in keeping the Colts competitive in the defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, although this is looking like a tougher test on paper considering how well the Jaguars have been playing on the Defensive side of the ball.

Indianapolis would like to lean on Jonathan Taylor and the running game, but the Colts have been struggling at the Line of Scrimmage in recent outings and that has seen the team have real issues in establishing the run.

Pressure can be generated up front if the Jaguars can push the Indianapolis Colts behind the down and distance, although Rivers' last performance suggests he can have some success throwing down the field.

Of course it is difficult on a short week having lost an important game and the feeling is that eventually the Jaguars will have a bit too much and that will see them pull clear on the scoreboard.

It was the case when the teams met in Florida and the Jaguars can keep hopes alive of perhaps even stealing the Number 1 Seed away from the Denver Broncos.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: If the New England Patriots (12-3) can win out, there is still a chance they could finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, but winning the AFC East would be a huge achievement in its own right. The win at the Baltimore Ravens puts them in a strong position to end the Buffalo Bills dominance in the Division and the Patriots are strong favourites to beat the New York Jets (3-12).

Motivation in the home camp will always be intensified by fact they are in a position to play spoiler for a rival, but the New York Jets are persisting with Brady Cook at Quarter Back and the team have looked like they have drawn a line under this season in recent outings.

Brady Cook is inexperienced, and that has shown, and it is going to be tough for the Jets to find anything consistent on this side of the ball.

They may look to run the ball against what has been a vulnerable looking New England Defensive Line, although the Jets have not really been very effective at that in recent games with teams knowing they do not have to be overly respectful of the passing game. You have to believe the Patriots will take their Secondary to deal with any throws that Brady Cook is able to make and that could see them double down on the efforts to stop the run and force the young Quarter Back to beat them with his arm.

The Offensive Line have not only struggled when it comes to helping establish the run, but they have not offered much pass rush protection either and so this looks like it could be another challenging test for the New York Jets.

Injuries were picked up by the New England Patriots in that battling win over the Ravens on the road and they could be without Running Back TreVeyon Henderson as well as a couple of Receivers on Sunday. However, the Patriots Offensive Line will still feel they can open up significant running lanes up front and that should bode well for Drake Maye and company.

With the problems the Jets have been having in stopping the run, New England should be in strong down and distance throughout the game.

It should mean Drake Maye does have time to target Receivers when he is dropping back to throw the ball down the field and the Jets Secondary have been incredibly vulnerable of late.

Anything other than a New England win would be a huge surprise, but the question is whether they can cover- a stronger Jets team were beaten by 13 points in Foxboro and this New England team are capable of putting up enough points and creating some turnovers to do a little better.

New York should be motivated, but they are also in a position to finish with a high Draft Pick and Brady Cook may not be ready to keep the Jets going on the scoreboard as they try and push the team chasing a high Seed in the Playoff.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The big fightback to beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16 of the NFL season has pushed the Seattle Seahawks (12-3) into a position where they can finish with the top Seed in the Conference. They looked down and out in that Thursday Night Football game, but Sam Darnold showed he can win big games and the Overtime win and a mini-Bye puts the Seahawks in confidence mood.

They will not want to slip up in the bid to win the Division, but the Seahawks have to be aware of the dangers that can be posed by the Carolina Panthers (8-7) who have taken the lead in the NFC South.

There is a chance the Panthers can secure the Division at the end of this week- they need to win and hope the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose at eliminated Miami, otherwise Carolina will be set for a 'winner takes all' game against the Divisional rivals next week.

With that in mind, there may be one eye on the scoreboard to see how Tampa Bay are performing and that could be a factor in this game.

Of course it is not an ideal scheduling spot for the Seattle Seahawks- not only have they beaten the Rams in Week 16, but the Seahawks finish the season against the San Francisco 49ers and overlooking this opponent would be a mistake.

A defeat would open the door for the Rams and/or the 49ers to take the Division and force Seattle to play road games in January and so there should be some real focus attached to this game.

The Seahawks do look like they match up pretty well with this Carolina team, especially on the Defensive side of the ball.

While the Panthers would love to establish the run and keep Bryce Young in third and manageable spots on the field, the Seahawks are a Defensive unit that have been very proud of how they have played the run. There are some holes in the Secondary which can be exploited, as Los Angeles did, but this is not the approach the Carolina Panthers tend to take with the Offensive game plan and Seattle will travel to the Eastern time zone full of belief, especially with the extra rest in place.

There should also be some comfort in the way the Seattle Seahawks want to play this game on the Offensive side of the ball.

Using the Offensive Line to run the ball should be high on the list of priorities and the Seahawks should have considerable success doing that against this Carolina Defensive Line.

Sam Darnold should then have a bit more time to make his reads if the Seahawks are running the ball as they can and he will not have to take too many risks with the ball.

Respect has to be given to the way the Carolina Secondary have been playing and they created a big turnover to beat the Buccaneers last week, but Seattle should be pretty happy with the way this game can be played. Running the ball will make it very difficult for the Carolina Secondary against some of the Receivers that Sam Darnold can target and the NFC West leaders can get the better of the South leaders in this important Week 17 game.

Seattle have won by solid margins when travelling to the Washington Commanders and Atlanta Falcons this season and having that bit more time to prepare for this game can only bode well for them.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 40-48, - 12.09 Units (88 Units Staked, - 13.74% Yield)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 25th December-Monday 30th December)

I hope everyone enjoys the festive period with families- the NFL Week 17 Picks will be added to this thread through to Monday with a fuller thread for the final week of the regular season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Christmas Day landing on Wednesday might have given the NFL some pause for thought about continuing with their relatively new tradition, but they have scheduled a couple of games by having four teams play one another on Saturday in Week 16 and then switch opponents for this Week 17 outing.

On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) were able to hold off the Houston Texans, but it was a tougher night for the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) who were crushed by the Baltimore Ravens. So both of these teams will enter this Christmas Day contest in very different moods and with their Playoff Seeding being impacted by the outcome of the game.

In reality the Kansas City Chiefs are almost there when it comes to securing the Number 1 Seed in the AFC again and earning the sole Bye in the Conference. Hosting the Playoffs gives the Chiefs a huge edge as they look to repeat in the Super Bowl again and they need either one win or one Buffalo loss in the final two weeks to secure their place.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, back to back losses has just allowed the Baltimore Ravens to move alongside them in the race for the AFC North Divisional crown. A superior Conference record is giving the Steelers the edge in the tie-breaker, but that could all change at the end of Christmas and it is a big, big game for the Steelers.

Russell Wilson was extremely disappointed with his personal performance in the loss to the Ravens having given up a key Fumble when it looked the Steelers were going to cross over for a Touchdown. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is not concerned about his veteran Quarter Back, who has turned back the clock a little bit this season, and he expects the experience to help Russell Wilson to bounce back.

He could be helped by the fact that Chris Jones is potentially missing for the Chiefs and that may allow Wilson a bit more time to make his plays down the field, especially if George Pickens returns at Wide Receiver from an injury of his own. The Quarter Back will be well aware that this is a very strong Kansas City Defensive unit that has perhaps been the main reason the team have picked up fourteen wins in the regular season, but there are one or two holes that the Steelers have to look to exploit.

Much could come down to the will of the Pittsburgh Offensive Line who have struggled to really help get the run going in recent games, but are facing a Kansas City team that can be vulnerable on the ground. Keeping Russell Wilson in front of the chains opens things up to try and attack an underrated Secondary, while also making sure he has a bit more time in the pocket to make his reads too.

Russell Wilson has to be aware of the Kansas City ability to turn the ball over through the air and so will have to perhaps tone down the moon-ball angles at times. Being at home will help this Offensive unit get back on track after tough road losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore, but the Steelers will also need to have plenty of respect for the ability of the Chiefs Defenders.

Patrick Mahomes suffered a scare for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, but looked pretty comfortable in Week 16 and will be looking to pick up from where he left off. However, there will be a huge amount of respect for some of the opponents that will be standing across the Line of Scrimmage and the Steelers are still a Defensive unit that deserves plenty of plaudits.

They remain a Defensive Line that will feel can clamp down on the run, but the key to the outcome of the game will be TJ Watt and company and whether they can challenge this Kansas City Offensive Line through the pass rush. We know that the Chiefs are a team that will look to the pass more than run, even when the game-plan looks to favour the ground game, but the Offensive Line have given Patrick Mahomes all of the time he has needed.

That strength at the Line of Scrimmage may be the ultimate factor with the Steelers Secondary banged up as we head into the final two weeks of the regular season.

His own Wide Receiver weapons are getting healthier and Patrick Mahomes has to believe he can make the plays into this Secondary that puts Kansas City into a position to win and secure the Number 1 Seed.

Opposing Mike Tomlin as an underdog is never ideal, and as a home underdog it should be even more concerning.

However, the feeling is that the Steelers have just lost a touch of momentum at a bad time and Kansas City can do enough to get past this spread line set.

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: The win over the Pittsburgh Steelers has just given the Baltimore Ravens (10-5) the momentum to push through and win the AFC North.

Ultimately they need to win their remaining two games and hope the Steelers lose once, which is entirely possible considering the schedules left.

Players will likely have one eye on the early kickoff on Christmas Day, but the Ravens will also be asked to focus and not worry about the Half Time Show featuring Beyonce either.

Three wins in four has just pushed some momentum behind Baltimore and this is a team that feels they have been built for a deep Playoff run. Finishing up with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC rather than one of the Wild Card spots does make that task a little easier with the guarantee of at least one home game in the post-season and there is motivation there to finish strong.

The Week 17 game on Christmas Day looks to be the most challenging one left for the Baltimore Ravens as they visit the Houston Texans (9-6) on a short week. Both teams played on Saturday, but the Texans were beaten by Kansas City and their chances of improving the Number 4 Seed they hold has drastically been reduced by that defeat.

Seeding is less of a concern than losing Tank Dell for a number of months and the Wide Receiver room has taken another big knock with Stefon Diggs already sidelined. It has made things more difficult for CJ Stroud in what has been an inconsistent sophomore season in the NFL, but earning another Divisional crown and having the chance to host another Playoff game has to be considered a success.

The matchup for the Texans looks a tough one when they have the ball in their hands.

This is a team that wants to run the ball, but that has not been easy to do against the Baltimore Defensive Line and Houston have just hit a wall of late. Joe Mixon will want to remind a former AFC North rival of his talent, but the Running Back can only be as strong as the Offensive Line allows him and his bigger threat may actually be leaking out of the backfield and acting as a safety blanket for CJ Stroud in the passing game.

The Quarter Back is going to need someone to step up next to Nico Collins without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and it is going to be tough for the Texans to move the ball with consistency. Earlier in the season, the Ravens Secondary had not really played at a high level, but they look to be rounding into some form now and the pass rush generated up front will really help.

It is going to be a challenge for the Texans, especially on a short week, but they have signed Diontae Johnson who was recently released by the Ravens. This could be an 'x factor', but Baltimore are unlikely to be overly concerned about what Johnson can offer in this Week 17 game.

Instead the respect will be for CJ Stroud and his capabilities as a Quarter Back, but the Ravens will feel they can pressure with the Defensive unit and then use the scoreboard to create more.

A balanced Ravens Offense will feel confident in being able to do what they like on this side of the ball, even if the Texans Defensive Line have been corralling the run pretty well of late. Stopping Derrick Henry is something they have dealt with before when he was playing in the same Division, but stopping Henry AND Lamar Jackson on the ground has proven to be tough for the best Defensive Lines in the NFL and this Christmas Day game should be no different.

Everything begins with the run for the Ravens and it has opened up the passing lanes for Lamar Jackson, who should be well protected behind his Offensive Line. There are definitely areas that the Ravens can exploit in the Secondary and you have to feel the motivation edge and the balance on the Offensive side of the ball gives the road team enough advantages to cover this mark.

It is a big line when you think it is 2 points higher than Week 16 when the Chiefs hosted Houston, but the injury concerns about Patrick Mahomes contributed to the line set. Since then the Texans are even more firmly entrenched in the Number 4 Seed position in the AFC and losing Tank Dell may mean the Coaching Staff are less likely to put their best players in tough situations on the field.

With the Ravens likely controlling the clock and making some big plays at the Line of Scrimmage when Houston have the ball, the road team can win and cover in this Christmas Day game.

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears Pick: You have to believe that the Seattle Seahawks (8-7) will still be focused in Week 17 of the NFL regular season, even if control of their Playoff destiny is no longer in their own hands.

If this game was being played on Sunday rather than Thursday Night Football, it would be one that would have to be skipped with other factors at play.

Ultimately the Seahawks know they can only make the Playoff if they beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18... What makes their motivation a little harder to predict in this game on Thursday is that the Seahawks absolutely need the Los Angeles Rams to lose both games left in the regular season and that makes their game against the Arizona Cardinals the only one that really matters.

Even if both the Seahawks and Rams lose this week, a Seattle win in Week 18 would see both finish with a 9-8 record and the Seahawks having the slightly stronger tie-breaker, but any Rams win in Week 17 will mean they cannot be overturned by Seattle no matter what the latter does.

With all that being said and this game being on a short week, the Seahawks should still want to give themselves momentum having lost two games in a row. Even if winning out is not enough to secure passage into the Playoff, it is important for Seattle to go into that final regular season game in a positive mindset, especially if the door has been left opened by the Rams to allow Seattle to pass them in the final standings.

It looks to be a good match up for the Seahawks against the Chicago Bears (4-11) who have lost nine in a row, including back to back blowout losses to Divisional rivals. With one more Divisional game left, the Bears are clearly going to be looking forward to the end of the season and the start of another rebuild and this looks to be a team that have just lost some heart at the end of a long regular season.

There are obviously shoots of optimism through Caleb Williams at Quarter Back, but it has become clear that the Offensive Line needs to be fixed and he still needs some support around him. The Quarter Back has been under siege far too often this season and it has not helped that the Bears have struggled to establish the run game to just ease the pressure on Williams.

It is unlukely that the Bears will get much going on the ground in this one and that is going to mean another tough day in the office for Caleb Williams. We have seen Seattle struggle a little bit in the Secondary in recent games, but those games have been against some of the best teams in the Conference and the Secondary have still stepped up at times to show the talent that Seattle have on this side of the ball.

For the main, Seattle are likely to be comfortable enough dealing with the Chicago Offensive plan, and they should be able to have their way when Geno Smith and company have the ball in their own hands.

The Quarter Back was able to suit up in Week 16 when Seattle were narrowly beaten by the Minnesota Vikings to lose control of their own destiny, but Smith played well and there should be a solid balance to the Seahawks approach. The team have powered up the run game behind this Offensive Line and should be able to keep Geno Smith in third and manageable spots, and that should just mean a comfortable night attacking this banged up Bears Secondary.

Some have suggested the Seahawks could rest key players, but the talk out of the locker room looks to indicate differently so the likes of DK Meltcalf are expected to take to the field.

This is a huge boost for Geno Smith, even as a decoy to open things up for other Receivers, and the Seattle Seahawks should find some momentum from winning this game.

All eyes will then turn to Los Angeles with the hope that Divisional rivals Arizona can upset the Rams on the road, but the focus on Thursday Night Football should see Seattle move into a position to win and cover.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: Elimination has been confirmed from the Playoffs as far as the New England Patriots (3-12) have been concerned for some time. However, that did not stop them giving AFC East Champions Buffalo Bills all they could handle in Week 16 and they will rematch the Bills to conclude the regular season.

It has to leave you questioning the motivation for this Week 17 game- if it was the final home game of the season, that would be something, but the Patriots finish up with a game against the Bills here and the players might not have the same amount of energy to invest in this game as they did when trying to stop Buffalo earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.

The Patriots can play spoiler for the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) and force them to enter Week 18 needing to win on the road at a Divisional rival, but there may be little appetite for that from the home team.

An early Eastern Time kickoff is never ideal for a travelling West Coast team, but the Chargers beat AFC West rivals Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 and that additional preparation time should help. Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers Head Coach, has had plenty of success in the early Eastern kickoff slot in his previous tenure leading the San Francisco 49ers so there is little concern that Los Angeles will not be prepared well enough.

We all know that Jim Harbaugh's Football idea is to establish the run first and foremost and there have been problems for the New England Defensive Line to address. That could show up here with the Chargers expected to have success on the ground, even if both Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are missing out.

Edwards has already been ruled out, while Dobbins is Questionable, but the Chargers should still have a bit more success on the ground considering the struggles of the Patriots.

This will be important for Justin Herbert and just allow the Quarter Back to have a bit more time to make his throws down the field, even with the Chargers being a bit inconsistent in this aspect of their game. For much of the season, the Patriots Secondary have really played pretty well and so it is key for the Chargers to ground and pound an opponent that gave plenty of themselves in the loss to the Bills.

There are problems for the Chargers to address on the Defensive side of the ball, especially with the potential Wild Card game just two weeks away. Los Angeles have struggled to stop the run too, which is a positive for New England who want to keep things as simple as possible for their rookie Quarter Back, while it will also ease the pass rush that has managed to get after Drake Maye.

Like many young, inexperienced Quarter Backs, Draye Maye has made one or two costly mistakes.

He should have some successes throwing the ball in this one, but avoiding Interceptions is key and the feeling is that the Patriots may struggle to have the same intensity as they produced in Week 16.

They are at home and that will help, but the Patriots might be a little spent in this one and that could give the rested Chargers enough of an edge to earn a win and a cover and book their place in the post-season.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The likelihood of a late run into the post-season for the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) is slim at best, but they can only give themselves an opportunity going into Week 18 by winning this game.

Ultimately the underachieving Bengals know they need to win out and earn plenty of help around the NFL, and three wins in a row has just put some momentum behind Cincinnati, even if it is perhaps too late.

One of the three Wild Card spots in the AFC has been taken by a rival from the AFC North, but the other two berths are held by two AFC West teams going into the penultimate week of the regular season. Earlier in the day the Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to wrap up their own Playoff spot, but the Bengals will keep themselves alive by beating the Denver Broncos (9-6) who were beaten by the aforementioned Chargers in Week 16.

Sean Payton has turned things around for Denver and with a rookie Quarter Back too, but there is still some work to do and this is a tough road test.

In recent games the Broncos have just struggled to really open up big running lanes, but they could get back to the ground game in this one with the Cincinnati Defensive Line continuing to have problems in containing teams.

This is so important for Quarter Back Bo Nix who will be put in a position to challenge a Bengals Secondary that have put up decent numbers during their winning run. Of course that is partly down to the poor Quarter Backs they have faced and Nix has shown he can do a bit more than the likes of Cooper Rush, Will Levis and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, especially with an Offensive mind like Payton as his Head Coach.

Denver are going to need their Offense to be operating at their efficient best, especially when facing a Bengals team that have plenty of skilful players on their side of the ball.

Tee Higgins is banged up, but Joe Burrow and company have found a way to keep the chains moving and they have put up plenty of points throughout the season to offer Cincinnati opportunities to win more games than they have. It will be on Joe Burrow's shoulders with the Broncos Defensive Line likely going to contain Chase Brown as a runner, although Brown will leak out of the backfield and likely be a very productive safety blanket for his Quarter Back.

Riley Moss is expected to be available for the Broncos, which is a huge plus for Denver's Secondary which has been exploited without him opposite Patrick Surtain II.

Even then, stopping this Cincinnati passing attack is going to be very tough and the Bengals may just have a narrow edge in this big Week 17 game.

Joe Burrow has played well considering he has been under pressure at times when he steps back to throw the ball, but the one concern has been a couple of Interceptions and Fumbles that have just held the Bengals back. He will need to play a cleaner game to ensure Cincinnati are still alive going into Week 18 in what has been a disappointing season so far and the Bengals may get the better of a potential shoot-out in this one.

You have to respect the fact that Sean Payton and his Broncos team will have a very good game-plan put together with the additional time to prepare, but the Cincinnati Bengals may just have the firepower to get the better of Denver and cover this spread set.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: They might have been eliminated before kicking off in Week 16, but the Dallas Cowboys (7-8) have continued to play hard for Head Coach Mike McCarthy even in a lost season.

Starting Quarter Back Dak Prescott has missed several weeks and top Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb has been shut down for the season, but motivation will be easy to find over the next two weeks with Dallas potentially playing spoiler for Divisional rivals.

First up is the Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) who have likely lost their chance of earning the Number 1 Seed in the NFC after giving up a late Touchdown drive to the Washington Commanders last week. That also means the Division is still at play, although the permutations for the Eagles to fail to be crowned NFC East Champions needs a lot to go against them.

Instead the main concern will be to get Jalen Hurts healthy at Quarter Back having been knocked out of the loss to the Commanders with concussion and he is due to sit out in Week 17, Even if the Division is wrapped up, they will be keen to get Hurts on the field next week and not have his next snaps taking place in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs, but for Week 17 it will be a banged up Kenny Pickett driving the Philadelphia Offensive unit.

In fairness to Pickett, he did not play badly when coming into the Week 16 game with the Commanders and there are plenty of talented players all around him.

A Running Back chasing history will likely be given a huge amount of the ball and Saquon Barkley will hope to put up the kind of numbers that forces Philadelphia to give him some snaps next week against the New York Giants. He needs over 250 rushing yards to earn the record, and Barkley will be leaned upon to run behind this impressive Philadelphia Offensive Line going up against a Cowboys team that have struggled to stop the run all season.

Easing the pressure on Kenny Pickett is clearly important, but it is also a sensible game plan against Dallas anyway and the Quarter Back could see the passing lanes open up to feed AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. The latter dropped a pass that would have likely led to an Eagles win last week, but there is a balance to this Eagles team that makes them dangerous.

Keeping a clean pocket will also be important to the Quarter Back because Dallas have been able to rush the passer effectively in recent games. They will be hoping that pressure up front can just force Kenny Pickett into mistakes that Jalen Hurts would perhaps avoid and that can give the Cowboys a chance to keep this competitive.

Cooper Rush will be operating the Dallas Offensive unit and he will have to be aware of the kind of standards that Philadelphia have been setting on the Defensive side of the ball.

The Cowboys have been playing pretty well of late thanks to the Offensive Line helping establish the run, but that looks like it will be much tougher to do in this game. Last week a lot had to go wrong for the Eagles to help the Commanders win that game, but even then they managed to turn the ball over a number of times and it all begins by clamping down on the run and forcing teams to try and beat them through the air.

Jayden Daniels was able to do that, but it will be tougher for Cooper Rush who is simply not as strong a Quarter Back and without his top target.

Philadelphia are set up really well to defend the pass, even when not being able to generate a host of pressure up front, and they could have the players capable of turning the ball over and giving their backup Quarter Back the extra possessions needed to secure a win and a cover.

Last week would have stung, but the Eagles can bounce back and show they are going to be a real Playoff threat with a big win over their NFC East rivals who have been hit too hard by injury and inconsistency this season.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Professional players know they are playing for their future whenever they step onto a NFL field, but there are times when management above them are making decisions that ultimately focus on the years ahead.

Fresh from scoring the Touchdown that eliminated the Arizona Cardinals from post-season play, the Carolina Panthers (4-11) have shut down Chuba Hubbard for the season. The Running Back has shown his worth to the team in 2024, but that is a decision that has not gone down very well with the fans and the Panthers might be glad to be on the road.

The travelling team will still want to show how much they have been improving and Quarter Back Bryce Young has two more games to display his talent. After a really poor rookie season and being benched in this one, Young has looked much more capable in recent weeks and the Panthers may choose to surround him with some more talent and really see what the young Quarter Back can do.

Motivation is also there to play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) who were beaten narrowly in Week 16 and have lost control of their own destiny.

Baker Mayfield and company need to win out and hope the Atlanta Falcons fail to win one of their remaining two games and there will be a confidence around Tampa Bay that the chips may fall their way and earn the NFC South team a home Playoff game in two weeks time.

Overlooking the Panthers would be a mistake, but Tampa Bay have to be confident they can move the ball with some consistency at home.

Teams have been able to dominate the Carolina Defensive Line in recent games and Bucky Irving may have a big game for the Buccaneers, whose own Offensive Line have been very happy to get their hands dirty in the run blocking game. The expectation is that the Buccaneers will be in third and manageable spots through much of the afternoon and this should open things up for Baker Mayfield and some of his skilled Receiving options.

Being in front of the chains just slows the pass rush pressure, while the Panthers have stronger Secondary numbers merely because teams have not needed to throw against them while the Defensive Line have struggled. This Buccaneers team have shown how good they can be Offensively during a four game winning run before losing to Dallas and Tampa Bay will believe they cover the spread through their Offensive firepower.

Scoring points is obviously important to any cover of a spread mark, but the Buccaneers do look like a team that will match up with the Panthers very well on the other side of the ball.

Even without Chuba Hubbard in the lineup, the Panthers would love to run the ball but that has been a challenge against this powerful Tampa Bay Defensive Line. With their top Running Back it would have been tough to establish the run and it feels like a game in which all of the pressure will be on Bryce Young at Quarter Back.

He can make some plays with his legs, but it will be really difficult to find any consistency Offensively if the Panthers are always behind the chains. Bryce Young will be under some duress from the Tampa Bay pass rush, while the Buccaneers Secondary have been in decent form as the regular season has wound down and this gives the home team a considerable edge.

Last week the Panthers showed they are still dangerous, but Tampa Bay are coming into this one behind a loss and will be automatically more focused in trying to keep their Playoff hopes alive. With the match up on both sides of the ball, this has the makings of a solid Tampa Bay win in the early Sunday kickoff slot and they can cover a big line with some huge play made on the Defensive side of the ball.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Moving into Week 17 of the NFL regular season, there are only five teams in the NFC that have won at least ten games and three of those are in the NFC North.

The Green Bay Packers (11-4) are going to the Playoffs, but there is still a chance fo them to improve their Seeding and they will certainly be keen to hold off the Washington Commanders for the Number 6 Seed at worst.

Motivation will also come from the fact that the Green Bay Packers have come up short against the best teams and they are looking to show they can compete before the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs begins with a road game at a Divisional Champion.

Where that will be is still up for debate and even the destiny of the NFC North is likely going to come down to Week 18- it is not only the Divisional crown on the line, but very likely the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and the Minnesota Vikings (13-2) are continuing to defy all expectations.

The Vikings have to win out if they are going to take the Division ahead of the Detroit Lions- they play before Detroit and there was some question about whether the Lions would rest their starters if the Vikings won simply as that second game between the top two in the NFC North would end up being a Divisional decider.

Minnesota will try and do their part and that is winning this game and sweeping the Green Bay Packers having won on the road when holding off a big rally from Green Bay.

Sam Darnold is going to be signing a big contract soon, but this is going to be a significant test for the Quarter Back with the pressure likely going to be on his arm and the two special Receivers he is throwing to. Aaron Jones would love to remind his former team of his abilities from the Running Back position, but the Vikings Offensive Line have not been able to establish the ground game with any consistency as injuries have piled up.

Making it tougher is trying to run against this Green Bay Defensive Line which is much stronger than previous editions when it comes to clamping down on the run.

Keeping the Vikings in obvious passing situations wil be important and allow the Packers to unleash the pass rush that has rattled Sam Darnold in recent games. Injuries on the Offensive Line have contributed to the pocket crumbling around Darnold and he has absorbed plenty of hits, which is expected to be the case when dropping back to throw against a quality Packers Secondary in this game.

Green Bay will certainly feel they can make some big plays Defensively and that will give a healthier Jordan Love an opportunity to lead the team to a big, important win.

There may be some regret that Aaron Jones is not playing in the Green Bay uniform, but Josh Jacobs can quickly make people forget with his strong performances from Running Back. He is expected to have a few more running lanes to exploit and the Packers will not shy away from driving the ball on the ground if that is what the Defensive unit is offering up.

In recent games it has been possible to push the ball on the ground against Minnesota and this is going to be important for Jordan Love, who will be offered even more time in the pocket than he has been given in recent games. In the main the Quarter Back has played with a clean pocket and there is no doubt that there are areas to attack this Minnesota team down the field.

Christian Watson could miss out, which hurts the Packers and the deep ball play, while there has to be a respect for the ball-hawking playmakers that Minnesota do have in the Defensive Back positions. However, Jordan Love has been careful with his throws and the Packers may just have the balance to 'upset' the hosts in this one, even if the overall Seeding is largely unlikely to be improved.

This has all of the makings of a top quality, Playoff-like game and the Green Bay Packers may edge to the victory as the narrow underdog.

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders Pick: No one would have expected the Washington Commanders (10-5) to challenge for a Playoff spot in 2024 under a new Coaching staff and a rookie Quarter Back. They are on the brink of confirming a Wild Card spot at the very least, while there is still an opportunity to win the NFC East and the Commanders look to have found their franchise Quarter Back.

There is so much to like about Jayden Daniels and everything he brings to the Commanders and you have to believe his experiences in 2024 will set him up for so much more to come. Washington will be looking to build the team around a Quarter Back on a rookie contract and Daniels co-ordinating a drive to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a big spot in Week 16 can only help the Quarter Back grow further.

This is another big spot for the Washington Commanders when hosting the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) who have made a Quarter Back change and taken over as the leaders of the NFC South.

Two wins will means the Falcons are in, but one defeat opens the door for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and there is plenty of pressure on Michael Penix Jr at Quarter Back who took over from Kirk Cousins before the Week 16 crushing win over the New York Giants.

Atlanta will be hoping to keep the pressure away from Penix Jr by running the ball and the Falcons Offensive Line have been playing well down the stretch. They have a quality Running Back in Bijan Robinson and we have seen the Commanders struggle in stopping the run for much of the season.

Improvements have been made in the Secondary play, but this Falcons team have a lot of Receivers that can make plays for the Quarter Back and Drake London has been cleared to play.

Michael Penix Jr is being given plenty of good advice from veteran Kirk Cousins and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that will give him time to make plays in the pocket. Of course this is a much bigger spot than facing the New York Giants looking forward to the end of the season, but Michael Penix Jr can help the Falcons sustain some success Offensively and give the Defensive unit something to protect.

One of the reasons the Falcons are in a position to earn a Playoff spot is the big improvements made by the Defensive unit and they will need to be at their best to keep Washington quiet.

The Defensive Line have really clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like it is going to be keenly contested- the Commanders have Brian Robinson Jr and Jayden Daniels capable of ripping out some big gains on the ground, but there is little doubt that the Falcons have had more intensity in clamping down on the run and this could determine the whole game.

Any time the Falcons have Washington in obvious passing situations, the pass rush is likely to have a big impact on Jayden Daniels and the time he has to throw down the field. He can scramble and give himself more time, but Daniels has faced plenty of Sacks too and the Falcons can protect the Secondary by putting the Quarter Back under duress.

For all of the successes Jayden Daniels has had in his rookie season, Interceptions can be an issue and this Falcons Secondary have been picking off passes in recent games to just ensure the team is still in a position to reach the post-season.

Turnovers could be key in this game as well, but the feeling is that Michael Penix Jr and this Atlanta Falcons team can keep this one close on the scoreboard, even on a primetime spot.

Both teams should be bringing their best with so much on the line, and this could be one that goes right down to the wire with big implications around the top of the NFC.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The top Seed in the NFC and the Division crown in the NFC North might be decided in Week 18, but this game is played on Monday Night Football and that means the Detroit Lions (13-2) will know all of their clinching scenarios.

It was put to Head Coach Dan Campbell that he could decide to rest starters if this game is effectively meaningless- that would be the case if the Minnesota Vikings are able to beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. However, Campbell made it clear to the media that this is a business trip for the Lions and they will be coming out to win as they do every week.

That decision is perhaps easier to make considering how the Lions season ended last year.

They had a big lead over the San Francisco 49ers (6-9) in this Stadium in the NFC Championship Game, but the Lions allowed the home team to recover and end their hopes of making the Super Bowl. This Week 17 game is not nearly as important for the injury hit 49ers who have been eliminated from the post-season, but Detroit will not have forgotten January 2024 and they might bare their teeth.

Detroit can feel like this is a test of their Offensive game-plan and that could be important with the Playoffs now coming up very quickly.

For all of their issues this season, the 49ers Defensive unit have still played very well and so the Lions will have to be at their best to win here. David Montgomery is likely to sit out, but Jahmyr Gibbs has shown his quality at Running Back and the Lions will be looking to get the ball into the hands of their speedy superstar.

Everything begins at the Line of Scrimmage for the Lions and they will feel they can at least keep Jared Goff in third and manageable spots, which is important for the Quarter Back too. He is more than a game manager, but Goff will have respect for this San Francisco Secondary, even if they have been eliminated from the Playoffs.

The 49ers have lost a number of key players on the Offensive side of the ball, but they are facing an injury hit Detroit team and that may at least give them a chance to keep this one competitive.

Trent Williams has been ruled out for the last two weeks and that is going to hurt San Francisco with the Offensive Line not nearly as strong running the ball without the Tackle. This has been an issue for them all season with the team down to a fourth string Running Back after injuries have piled up in the backfield and it has put all of the pressure on Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.

He has been without key Receivers, but there are holes in this injury hit Lions Secondary and Brock Purdy could have a decent outing in San Francisco's last home game of the 2024 season.

However, the consistency has perhaps lacked with Purdy having to play from third and long on occasion and that is something that the Lions will look to exploit. The kicking issues are another concern for the home team and it feels like the motivation is with Detroit to just make amends for that NFC Championship Game defeat.

And if the Green Bay Packers upset Minnesota on Sunday, Detroit will be playing for a Division crown and potentially the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, which can only aid the motivation for a strong performance here on the road.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)