NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)

We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers is played on Sunday night.

That does mean that the Western Conference Finals will begin first rather than the Eastern Conference Finals and Game 1-4 are played on alternate days.

All NBA fans have to be excited about the Western Conference Finals- the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs could build up a real rivalry over the next several years with two young rosters filled with some incredible talent.

The winner of the Western Conference Finals will be expected to be set as favourites in the NBA Finals, but the New York Knicks have produced some of the best basketball of this year's Playoffs and will certainly have something to say about that.

Twenty-seven years have passed since the Knicks last reached the NBA Finals and fifty-three since New York last won a NBA Championship, but they have won seven Playoff games in a row and mostly in supremely confident fashion.

Nothing can be taken for granted against whoever they face in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Knicks are going to be favourites and it is up to this team to manage the huge expectations that have been placed on their shoulders.

NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4

Monday 18th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: This is the Western Conference Finals that fans would have wanted to see and the Oklahoma City Thunder are going to be favourites to move through to another NBA Finals.

They have breezed through the Playoffs without dropping a game, but this is going to be a significantly tougher Series.

However, that ability to make comfortable progress has meant the Oklahoma City Thunder are well rested and they are also expecting to have Jalen Williams available in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The depth of the Thunder has been a huge advantage over the rivals faced in the Playoffs so far, while Oklahoma City have been allowed to play with real physicality and that has seen them dominate the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers.

Both of those teams were shorthanded, but that is not going to be the case in the Western Conference Finals and the San Antonio Spurs have to believe their own depth helps them match up well with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Spurs may not have the MVP of the League on the roster, but they will believe Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the court all the same. Using the depth to keep themselves competitive when Wemby has to be given a rest is the key for the Spurs, and it remains an important factor that San Antonio won four of the five regular season meetings between the teams.

There has been nothing wrong with the Oklahoma City Defensive unit, but recent games have been tougher for them even if they should be stronger at home. They are going to need to play well on this side of the court against a San Antonio team that have been very strong Defensively and used that to wear down the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Second Round Series.

Some will like the fact that the Spurs have not lost a lot of rhythm by playing in the Second Round until Friday, but the Oklahoma City Thunder showed that rest will not bother them. You would expect the Thunder to find their rhythm at home pretty quickly, but the defending Champions will also want to make an early statement against a team that gave them so much trouble in the regular season.

This is the shortest spread that the Thunder will have faced in the post-season at home in 2026, but that is the kind of respect that the San Antonio Spurs.

In saying that, the Spurs may still feel they are being overlooked by having this many points given to them and the road team can be backed in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, which has all of the signs of being one that could potentially go all the way.

Tuesday 19th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Twenty-seven years have passed since the New York Knicks last reached the NBA Finals and multiple generations have failed to see the team win the NBA Championship.

After what had been something of an inconsistent regular season and falling 2-1 behind in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, the Knicks have found some of their best basketball. The momentum has grown as they have not only won seven straight Playoff games, but the Knicks completely overwhelmed the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers and fans will believe they won't have many better opportunities to reach the NBA Finals.

Last year the season ended in the Eastern Conference Finals after a Game 6 loss to the Indiana Pacers, but injuries had held the team back and the Knicks look to be heading into the 2026 Conference Finals in much better shape.

OG Anunoby missed some time in the Second Round sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers, but he has been back in full practice with the team giving him a big chance of recovering with the rest days they have had between Series. Karl-Anthony Towns is playing about as well as he ever has in the NBA, while Jalen Brunson is expected to enjoy this match up.

The Knicks have been underrated Defensively, while the three point shooting has been at historically strong levels in the previous two Rounds as the team have rallied together and found a really good rhythm.

One of the only concerns for the fans is that the long layoff between the end of the Second Round Series and the start of the Eastern Conference Finals could work against New York.

However, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come into the Conference Finals having had to dig in to beat the Detroit Pistons in Game 7 and that is the second Series in the post-season that has gone all the way. Donovan Mitchell stepped up to lead the Cavaliers into the Eastern Conference Finals, which is also the first time Mitchell will have been that far in the Playoffs, but the key starters who have all been so important for Cleveland have already had a lot of minutes in the post-season.

This is a Series that is also going to feel very different for the Cavaliers- this time they are facing an opponent that will believe they can match the Offensive firepower on the other side of the court. After seeing the barrage of three pointers that the Knicks have been connecting on, the pressure will be on Cleveland to find the energy to get out to those shooters, while a returning Anunoby gives the Knicks the kind of Defensive length and intensity to put plenty of pressure on the Cavaliers.

Big favourites and Game 1 home teams have struggled in recent Conference Finals Series, but in recent situations where the Number 3 Seed has been favoured by at least 3.5 points, those teams have tended to cover.

A number of adjustments are going to have to be made by the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals compared with what has come before, but this feels a tough spot for them with a day of rest between Game 7 of the Second Round Series and this opening contest.

It is a big spread, but the New York Knicks have a lot of momentum that could carry into the Eastern Conference Finals and they may find some three point shooting rhythm to cover at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday.

Wednesday 20th May

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 2 Pick: These two Western Conference rivals are expecting to battle one another for the next several years at the very top of the NBA and Game 1 suggests the Western Conference Finals could be an epic affair.

Double Overtime was needed before the San Antonio Spurs eventually prevailed thanks to a monster game from Victor Wembanyama.

For all intents and purposes, the Spurs fans will know the team have already achieved all they would have wanted from the first two games of the Series, but the players will feel there is an opportunity to really take control of this Conference Finals. Another win on the road would put the Spurs in a very strong position before returning home and they have shown they have what it takes to beat the defending Champions time and time again throughout this season.

Game 1 was won without De'Aaron Fox, who has to be considered Questionable for Game 2, but Wemby put the team on his back and had a big moment to level things up in the first Overtime played. His 41 Points alone would impress, but adding 24 Rebounds along with 3 Blocks and 3 Assists underlines the impact Victor Wembanyama had on the game as he became the youngest player to ever have at least 40 Points and 20 Rebounds in a Playoff game.

Asking for more of the same may be too much, but the San Antonio Spurs will feel Victor Wembanyama is the most impactful player on the court even if he did not win the MVP.

The player who did, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, produced an inefficient 24 Points in Game 1 as the Spurs crowded him, but that did mean the Oklahoma City Thunder had multiple open looks that were missed. Some will believe that is down to the fact they have won all eight Playoff Games and so had a lot of rest between the end of the Second Round Series and Game 1 of the Conference Finals, but you have to think the Thunder are confident that the shooters will be better when those looks come up again.

Oklahoma City's regular season record against the Spurs will put them under some pressure, but they are the defending Champions and a response is expected.

Once again they are being asked to cover a big spread, which has not been a good position for favourites in the Conference Finals, but teams playing after a loss are 34-19-1 against the spread at this stage of the post-season.

Big favourites have struggled in the Conference Finals, but Number 1 Seeds have a 21-14 record against the spread when favoured by at least 6.5 points and this Thunder team have the experience and the quality to find a way to bounce back.

The Spurs covered as a big underdog, but that has not always been a good spot for the Number 2 Seed in the Conference Finals and those teams being given at least 5 points are now 7-16 against the spread.

Opposing the Spurs is not easy considering how they have matched up with the Thunder all season, but Oklahoma City may be facing a team that could soon turn their attention to 'holding serve' at home having already stolen home court advantage away. If that is going to happen, Game 2 looks the spot and the Thunder should be a little more efficient with the looks they missed out on last time out, which should see them edge past this spread line set.

Thursday 21st May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: Most of the attention is going to be focusing on the New York Knicks after putting together a historic comeback that will have fans believing destiny is with them as they bid to return to the NBA Finals for the first time in twenty-seven years.

They were 22 points behind with less than eight minutes remaining and no one would have given the Knicks a shot at recovering.

Instead the team rallied to force Overtime and overwhelmed the Cleveland Cavaliers to produce the biggest comeback in the history of the New York Knicks as far as the post-season goes, while also being the second biggest deficit clawed back in the Fourth Quarter of any Playoff game in the last thirty years.

The number crunchers gave the Knicks a 0.1% chance of winning with a little over half of the Fourth Quarter remaining, but somehow it is New York who have a 1-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Jalen Brunson put the team on his back and could not miss, but there were also key contributions from three point shooters who had been ice cold for the first three Quarters. Some of that is clearly down to the big gap between games, but the Knicks found their rhythm just in time and all of the momentum is with a team that have won eight straight Playoff games.

Credit has to be given to New York for the fight shown, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are rightly going to be facing criticism.

James Harden was exposed time and time again on the Defensive side of the court as the Knicks turned up the heat, which also impacted his level on the Offensive side as he was worn down. Donovan Mitchell had been playing really well, but drifted out of the game as the Cavaliers looked for someone to take control, although he has played down an injury concerns.

And Head Coach Kenny Atkinson has had to face the critics having failed to use his Timeouts in a bid to at least curtail the Knicks run in the Fourth Quarter when almost everyone else would have used them, even just to slow the clear momentum shift.

Adjustments will have to be made by the Cavaliers, but they have responded to adversity throughout these Playoffs and that makes them dangerous- yes, they did lose two in a row at the Detroit Pistons to open the Second Round Series, but the Cavaliers won road games in Game 5 and Game 7 to show they can come through difficult, hostile environments.

However, there has to be a concern about the way things went at the end of Game 1 and the relative lack of recovery time before the teams face off again in Game 2 at The Garden.

Open shooters will have to be more clinical with those opportunities, while Mitchell cannot allow himself to become a non-factor as he did in the second half of the Fourth Quarter and in Overtime in Game 1.

The challenge for the Cavaliers is knowing that this New York Knicks team had been completely out of sync for so long in Game 1 that they should have won on the road, while now they are dealing with a team that did find rhythm with their shots. The three point shooting has been eye-catching in this Playoff run, but the Knicks have so much room for improvement from the Tuesday efforts that they feel very, very dangerous if the Cavaliers do not come out with a point to prove.

Big favourites have found it tough in the Conference Finals, while teams playing after a loss have bounced back effectively, which are both trends favouring the road team.

Game 2s have tended to be very good for home teams after a win with those putting together an 8-5 run against the spread and the New York Knicks have to believe the manner of the opening win is going to have a hangover effect on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It is imperative the Knicks come out fast and use the emotion of the crowd to get on top of the Cavaliers as early as they can and, if they can do that, they should have a better shooting day with some of the looks they saw in Game 1 to believe they can win and take a 2-0 lead in the Series with a cover of the spread line set.

Friday 22nd May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: They did what they needed to during a two game road business trip to Oklahoma City, but it has come at a cost for the San Antonio Spurs.

De'Aaron Fox was already missing and another primary ball-handler in Dylan Harper suffered an injury in the Third Quarter of Game 2, which ultimately tipped things in favour of the defending Champions. Turnovers killed the San Antonio Spurs with Stephon Castle being most guilty and they are going to be desperate to have at least one of Fox or Harper available for Game 3 as the Western Conference Finals shifts to San Antonio for the next two in the Series.

Every team needs players who can bring the ball up the court and create plays and San Antonio are no different- after the Double Overtime win in Game 1 behind a monster game from Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs best player was not as influential a factor in Game 2 and some of that is down to the inability of those outside of De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper being able to set the tempo with turning the ball over.

Turnovers have long been situations from which the Oklahoma City Thunder shine and most would have expected a big response from this group after losing Game 1.

Shai-Gilgeous Alexander had a really efficient day from the field, even if his flopping on almost every shot taken is beginning to be noted more and more, while the intensity of the team meant they were not outgunned on the boards for a second time in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder were out-Rebounded in Game 2, but by a 4 board margin rather than the 21 more recoveries earned by the Spurs in Game 1.

It wasn't a perfect night for the Thunder, who may have lost Jalen Williams to another injury, while there have been plenty flagging up some of the physical, rough-housing the officials either missed or ignored against Victor Wembanyama.

On San Antonio's home court, those calls may end up trending in favour of the Spurs and it does make Game 3 that much more interesting for viewers.

In recent years, the Conference Finals have seen the zig-zag theory working really well with teams coming off losses producing strong numbers in the next game. The San Antonio Spurs will be hoping another day of recovery will help them here and you would expect De'Aaron Fox to suit up having been a game-time decision on Wednesday.

That will help, as will a few more positive calls from the officials, but this Oklahoma City Thunder deep have showcased the kind of depth they have.

Number 2 Seeds have been solid backs when favoured in Conference Finals games, while it should also be noted that Number 1 Seeds have not performed well as small favourites or underdogs, which is what the Oklahoma City Thunder have been set as in this important Game 3 battle.

Instead of picking a side, it may pay for this one to end up surpassing a total that has moved up a couple of points compared with Game 2.

That opening Double Overtime Game 1 has sapped some early energy and we saw signs of that in Game 2, while the officials may be more on top of some of the physicality we have seen where obvious fouls were not being called. Those have been highlighted nationally and it could be a Game 3 where whistles are more frequent, which in turn leads to drawn out Quarters as teams head to the Foul Line.

Three point shooting was more efficient in Game 2 as the Defensive players perhaps struggled to get out to those spot up shooters with tired legs recovering from the opening outing in the Western Conference Finals.

If that continues, this line may still be a touch low and it should be stated that Conference Finals games where the total has been set between 209 and 216 points have now finished with an 'over' in twenty-five of the last thirty-six occasions that has happened, including in Game 2 of this Series.

Turnovers lead to quick points too and the Spurs could be guilty of that again, but the home team are also showing they can break down this Oklahoma City Defensive scheme and this total may end up being surpassed in a Game 3 that really feels like it is finely balanced.

MY PICKS: 18/05 San Antonio Spurs + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 New York Knicks - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

20/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

21/05 New York Knicks - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

22/05 San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals: 3-0, + 2.74 Units (3 Units Staked, + 91.33% Yield)

Second Round: 5-8, - 3.45 Units (13 Units Staked, - 26.54% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Divisional Round (Saturday 17th January-Sunday 18th January)

If you wanted to sum up how this season has seemed to go for the NFL Picks, seeing the late drama in a number of the Wild Card Games all working against the selections summed it up.

As a fan you couldn't help but be excited not only by what we were watching, but what kind of drama that may still await with the final eight teams now set.

However, for the selections, seeing the Rams and Packers blow big leads on their way to non-covers or outright defeats and then followed by the Jacksonville Jaguars losing deep in the Fourth Quarter and the Eagles somehow failing to win their own games on Sunday, it all added up to another bitter blow in what has been a poor season for the selections.

At this point, I would be happy to see more quality games and there is no doubt that picking a winner remains incredibly difficult.

The Buffalo win in Jacksonville is huge, but they have to play a well rested Number 1 Seed on the road, while the Seattle Seahawks look well balanced, although who would trust Sam Darnold in a really big moment?

Out of all the teams remaining, the Los Angeles Rams look best on both sides of the ball, but a road game in Chicago in January is always going to bring its challenges.

New England's win over the Los Angeles Chargers was a solid one, but Drake Maye will need to be better and the Patriots continue to look like a team that is overachieving thanks largely to the schedule that has been given to them.

As for the others, there are plenty of plusses and minuses around them and this really feels like a small window for many of those teams as far as Super Bowl success is concerned with a stronger looking field expected to be involved in twelve months time.

Over the next couple of days, the Divisional Round of the Playoffs will be completed and that means there are now just seven games left in the 2025 season.

The Picks from the four games to be played can be read below, although it has been the kind of season when picking the other side might make sense for readers.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos Pick: You could make a reasonable argument to say the winner of this AFC Divisional Round Game will be the favourite to reach the Super Bowl.

The Buffalo Bills (13-5) would have to sweep their way through two more road games, but you would likely set them as favourite against either New England or Houston even in that spot. First they have to beat the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, although the well rested Denver Broncos (14-3) will feel they have something to prove having been completely crushed by the Bills in the post-season twelve months ago.

With the spread as short as it is, the Broncos will be taking plenty of motivation from the lines from Vegas too.

Coming into this Divisional Round after a Bye Week has to be a bonus and you also cannot ignore how well Sean Payton has prepared his team with rest. This is also a relatively short week for the Buffalo Bills who were winning on Sunday in the Wild Card Round, and that is something the Broncos have to make count.

However, there are questions to answer for the Number 1 Seed and most are in relation to the Offensive problems they have had for much of the season. The Broncos have found a way to win games, which cannot be dismissed, but Bo Nix and company have been erratic to say the least and Sean Payton was not very happy with the Week 18 efforts from his players on this side of the ball.

Earlier this season, the Broncos Offensive Line were really powering things, but that has not been the case in recent games. JK Dobbins has been a miss and is set to be absent on Saturday, even as he continues his rehab on the field, while too many mistakes have been committed by the Linemen which has kept the Broncos behind the chains.

Running the ball against the Bills has been a successful game plan for much of the last several months, but you have to believe they are going to be looking to force Bo Nix to beat them with his arm. The Quarter Back is one who is happy to scramble for First Downs when he has needed to do that, but this Buffalo team are well aware of those kinds of players thanks to Josh Allen and so there is a belief the Bills can clamp down on the run.

Trevor Lawrence did show what can be achieved by throwing 200 yards and adding 31 rushing yards so there is some encouragement for Box Nix, although he has to hope the Broncos can keep him in front of the down and distance.

We have seen Bo Nix produce some very good looking numbers from the Quarter Back position, but the last couple of starts have not been amongst those. This Bills Secondary has played well over the course of the season and there will be a feeling in Buffalo that they match up well with the Broncos on this side of the ball, which has to offer plenty of encouragement to the team.

The Bills also have Josh Allen.

Despite multiple injuries, Josh Allen willed the Bills to a victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars as looks to make sure the absence of the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens is not a missed opportunity for his team. The Quarter Back is going to put it all on the line, but he has unfortunately lost a couple more Receivers and that leaves Buffalo stretched, which makes things that much tougher against an elite Defensive unit like the one Denver have.

Like the opposition, Denver have to feel they know how to play a mobile Quarter Back pretty effectively and they will not want Allen to beat them with his legs.

James Cook can have some success running the ball and there is a suggestion that the slight edge at the Line of Scrimmage is with the Buffalo Offensive Line rather than the Denver Defensive Line. This is going to be the key to the outcome of the game with the Bills looking to keep the team in front of the chains and somewhat negate the powerful pass rush the Broncos bring onto the field.

Any time Josh Allen and company are behind the chains, you have to feel the Denver pass rush will have a big impact on the game and especially with Buffalo being down multiple Receivers. There are still those that can make plays, but this is a productive Denver Secondary and quicker throws may be the best way to move the chains.

The Broncos Secondary ended the season looking very comfortable, but Josh Allen is a special Quarter Back and that is what may give the road team a narrow edge.

Turnovers are going to be absolutely crucial to the final outcome and this looks a game that will come down to the wire.

Number 1 Seeds have tended to struggle in this spot when facing a 6 or 7 Seed, while those teams who earned wins on the road in the Wild Card Round have a strong covering record in the Divisional Round.

Effectively this is a game that is set as a pick 'em and hosts have tended to find a way through to the Championship Round, albeit not necessarily with a very good covering record. The outright winner is likely to cover either way and the narrow edge has to be with the superior Quarter Back, while the Bills look like they match up pretty well with this Denver team.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: A Bye was earned by beating the San Francisco 49ers (13-5) in Week 18 of the regular season, but the Number 1 NFC Seed Seattle Seahawks (14-3) have suffered a scare.

On Thursday, it was announced that Sam Darnold had been placed on the injury report and considered Questionable to start this Divisional Round Game, although the Quarter Back has downplayed suggestions that he would not suit up.

Two regular season games were split by these NFC West rivals, although the second one was the most important with the Seahawks beating the 49ers on the road and securing the top Seed. However, San Francisco can take confidence from the win in Seattle back in Week 1, while there will be little sympathy for an injury suffered by the hosts considering what the 49ers have been through in the campaign.

Another one was suffered last week in the Wild Card upset of the Philadelphia Eagles- George Kittle is out for the rest of the Playoff run, while Fred Warner is not going to be ready to suit up this week as he was hoping.

Brock Purdy found enough connections with his makeshift Receivers to earn passage past the Philadelphia Eagles, but now has to lead the San Francisco 49ers to find a way to move the ball against a very good Seattle Defensive unit. Just two weeks ago, San Francisco had fewer than 200 Offensive yards against Seattle, although the return of Trent Williams is a big boost for the Offensive Line.

Trent Williams is not at 100%, but it may help in the run blocking against a stubborn Seattle Defensive Line.

Getting anything from Christian McCaffrey on the ground would be considered a boost for the San Francisco Offense, although it is clear that the Running Back is going to be most effective as a catcher coming out of the backfield.

There has to be a huge amount of respect for how the Seahawks have played on the Defensive side of the ball, but Kyle Shanahan will have used the short week to at least find some ways to get his team to move the chains.

The short week is far from ideal- the 49ers are also coming off a game on the East Coast, but they will feel they can have a little more success than they produced in the Week 18 defeat.

Importantly the San Francisco 49ers look capable of keeping this one close on the scoreboard with the way they match up with the Seahawks on the other side of the ball.

If Sam Darnold is limited, that will certainly help, while an appearance from Drew Lock would certainly tighten the margins.

Everything that is happening in the Quarter Back room should only have strengthened the approach that the Seahawks will take to the game- they are going to pound the rock over and over again against a 49ers Defensive Line that has been worn down by injuries and who continue to allow teams to have considerable success on the ground.

Two weeks ago, Seattle had 180 rushing yards against the 49ers and they will be looking to pick up from where they left off and just keep the pressure on this NFC West rival.

That should keep the pressure from the Quarter Back, regardless of who it may be, and gives the Seahawks the edge in the straight up market, but perhaps not the spread.

A strong Head Coach like Kyle Shanahan will have new looks for the Seahawks and San Francisco may only need 13 points to earn a cover.

For all of the problems San Francisco have had, they only allowed 13 points in the Week 18 loss and they allowed the same number when they met in Week 1.

Brock Purdy is expected to be better with Trent Williams on the Offensive Line and road teams are 4-2 against the spread when facing Divisional rivals in this Round of the Playoffs.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points are also 29-17-1 against the spread in the Divisional Round of the post-season.

Number 1 Seeds have had poor records covering in recent years in the Divisional Round, as already mentioned, and the San Francisco 49ers are strong enough to keep this one competitive, even in a losing effort.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots Pick: Two of the top Defensive units in the NFL meet in this Divisional Round Game on Sunday when the New England Patriots (15-3) host the Houston Texans (13-5).

They were both set as relatively narrow favourites in the Wild Card Round, but both the Patriots and Texans dominated behind these Defensive units.

However, it is Houston who have drawn the short straw by having to play on Monday Night Football in the Wild Card Round and that means having to compete on the road on a short week.

Much is going to depend on the Houston Defensive unit and they will take a huge amount of encouragement from the Drake Maye struggles against a more than competent Los Angeles Defense last week. The Texans will feel they have an even better unit than the Chargers and will be looking to confuse the young Quarter Back.

Running the ball is going to be the first target for the New England Patriots and they have had success doing that behind this Offensive Line, although rarely going up against a unit like this Houston Defensive Line. This battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be important in cold conditions and the Patriots will be keen to place Drake Maye in positive yardage situations, while also being able to slow down the fierce Houston pass rush.

There will be opportunities for Maye and the New England passing game if they are able to stay in third and manageable spots, although nothing is going to come easy in these conditions.

It will be tough for the hosts, but it is also going to be hugely challenging for the road team who are used to much warmer conditions than they are likely to find in Foxboro.

One of the big criticisms of the Houston Texans has been the performance of the Offensive unit and there is pressure on them to find enough points to help out the Defense.

The Texans will be looking to do the same as the Patriots and that is establish the run, but the Offensive Line have not played at the same level as the one New England will run out on the field. So while the Patriots will have belief in what they can do at the Line of Scrimmage, it may be tougher for the Houston Texans against a Patriots Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run.

CJ Stroud may be able to move around to clear away from the pass rush pressure, which can be something to slow this New England rush, but he is also going to be severely challenged when it comes to throwing against this Secondary.

Not only does it look like Christian Gonzalez is going to suit up for New England, but Houston are set to be without Nico Collins who is the big target for Stroud and that could make things very difficult.

The Fumbles in Pittsburgh were not punished and the Quarter Back is going to have to be close to his best if he is going to lead the Texans to a second consecutive road win.

There is a positive history for those teams chasing second road wins in succession in the Divisional Round, while it has been noted that hosts have been good at winning, but not necessarily covering.

However, the slight edge has to be with the New England Patriots to be able to do enough, as they did in the Wild Card Round, and the feeling is that Drake Maye can out-perform CJ Stroud in a game that could come down to the passing game.

Turnovers could change the entire momentum of this game, which is going to be close, but the New England Patriots can cover even in a relatively low-scoring win to progress to the AFC Championship Game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears Pick: If you were to suggest the most likely winner of the Super Bowl because of the balance of the team, you may point out the Los Angeles Rams (13-5) as the team to beat.

However, a couple of slips late in the season has meant the Rams have had to enter the post-season as one of the Wild Card teams and has meant having to win at least twice on the road.

Despite an injury suffered by Matthew Stafford, which had slowed down the Rams and looked to be a costly issue in the eventual win over the Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles have made it through to the Divisional Round.

Now they have to pack the bags and travel to the Chicago Bears (12-6) who produced a historic Playoff comeback to beat the Green Bay Packers last week.

As you may expect in January, it was always going to be cold in Chicago.

However, the temperatures are going to be exceptionally cold on Sunday evening when this game kicks off and there will be snow flurries too, which is going to make it very challenging for Matthew Stafford and the Rams.

The Quarter Back has huge experience of playing in cold weather having been a part of the Detroit Lions in the NFC North before heading to a warmer climate in Los Angeles. That will help Matthew Stafford prepare, mentally if nothing else, but even compared with previous standards of road games in Chicago and Green Bay, this is going to be something unique.

Some of the Rams have already been downplaying the weather, but it is a huge factor in this one.

In normal conditions or in a Dome setting, you would really like how the Rams match up with the Chicago Bears on the Offensive side of the ball.

While they will usually go as far as Matthew Stafford takes them, the Rams Offensive Line have been very productive at setting the tempo by winning at the Line of Scrimmage and putting a strong running game on the board. The likelihood is that the Los Angeles Rams will want to keep the ball on the ground at times in the conditions expected and they are expected to have success when they do that.

This Offensive Line also gives Matthew Stafford protection and he would carve up this Chicago Secondary, but again the weather is going to be a factor when it comes to throwing and catching.

After the huge comeback put together by the Bears in the Wild Card win over rivals Green Bay, Ben Johnson and the fans will have a lot of faith in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. Some of the Bears Receivers have also stepped up and Williams plays behind an Offensive Line that will offer him some time, although the same problems with the conditions will have to be overcome.

Much like the opposite unit, the Chicago Offensive Line have been very strong this season and they have been important in opening up the running lanes for the Bears.

Recent outings have been more challenging, but the Bears will have noted the success teams have had in the last few games against this Rams Defensive Line. Keeping that powerful Offensive unit on the sidelines to really feel the cold would be a huge win for the Chicago Bears and there is every chance that they can put a game plan together to keep this one close.

Sean McVay has admitted he will be speaking to his close friend Matt LaFleur, who happens to be the Green Bay Head Coach, but ultimately this is a Head Coach with a Super Bowl Championship on the resume. You have to expect the Rams will have a good plan, even in the poor conditions, but they are a road favourite and those teams are just 1-4 against the spread in the last five Divisional Round Games in that situation.

The Rams do look like having all of the ingredients to win another Super Bowl, but having a hook over a key number 3 makes the Chicago Bears worthy of backing to avoid a blowout defeat.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 48-63, - 20.05 Units (111 Units Staked, - 18.06% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks 2026- Wild Card Round (Saturday 10th January-Monday 12th January)

The NFL regular season has thrown up plenty of surprises in the 2025 campaign and so there cannot be too many raised eyebrows when it comes to the final fourteen teams who are taking part in the post-season.

Of course there are some big favourites that have been eliminated before the Playoffs have begun, but that won't be written in the history books when a Super Bowl Winner is decided in early February.

Pressure is on those that are still playing in January and that is because they may feel this is a small window that has opened up for success before some of the stronger teams bounce back next season. That especially feels the case for those involved in the AFC side of the Bracket, although whoever comes through is expected to be the Super Bowl underdog with the NFC teams looking stronger one through seven.

However, in saying all that, there have been so many surprising results from week to week this season that you cannot dismiss a few more happening over the next three weeks before the Super Bowl is actually set for San Francisco.

Picking a favourite is difficult, but the way my Bracket worked out saw the Denver Broncos facing the Philadelphia Eagles in the big game.

That could change very quickly and this has been the worst season for a number of seasons for the NFL Picks, which perhaps makes my predictions look all the weaker immediately anyway.

The Wild Card Round is played between Saturday and Monday and all of the selections are in this thread below.

For games where a selection has yet to be made, those will be added in the next several hours as Wild Card Weekend kicks off in Carolina and concludes in Pittsburgh over the next few days.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: After the San Francisco 49ers were beaten on Saturday in Week 18, an opportunity arrived for the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) to move into the Number 5 Seed in the NFC. That would mean beginning the post-season at the home of the NFC South Winners rather than facing the Philadelphia Eagles or Chicago Bears and a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals saw the Rams move up into this Seeding position.

It was also important to snap a two game losing run before the Playoffs, although the Carolina Panthers (8-9) will ultimately have been thankful for one of those Rams losses.

If Los Angeles had beaten Atlanta in Week 17, the Carolina loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have meant elimination for the Panthers and the Buccaneers hosting this Wild Card Game. They still needed the Falcons to win out against the New Orleans Saints to finally begin to think ahead to the post-season for the first time in almost a decade, but Carolina have made it and will believe this represents a 'new season.

They have to think that way after the Panthers closed the regular season with three losses in four games, including consecutive defeats.

One of those losses was to the Seattle Seahawks as Carolina were beaten by 17 points in the last game of the regular season, but the Panthers should not be intimidated by facing the Los Angeles Rams considering they upset this opponent in the regular season in November.

It was a day when one of the leading contenders for the regular season MVP, Matthew Stafford, was responsible for three turnovers and that was a decisive factor in what turned out to be a 3 point loss right in this Stadium. The Rams were 9.5 point favourites on that day, but the spread has actually moved another point in their favour despite the defeat and that is a number that will be very tough to cover.

Over the course of the season, the Rams have played well Defensively, but they struggled to find the right balance on this side of the ball in the loss to Carolina.

The key to beating the Panthers is stopping the run, but the Los Angeles Defensive Line have finished the season looking vulnerable and that is something that the home team are going to be wanting to expose. With a Quarter Back lacking Playoff experience, the Panthers will want to control the clock and tempo of this game, while also making sure Bryce Young is not feeling too much pressure trying to convert from third and long spots.

There has been plenty to like from Bryce Young this season after looking like a bust, but the young Quarter Back has still been inconsistent, while the Los Angeles pass rush will be looking to unleash if they can force the Panthers behind the chains. Being able to do that should help slow this opponent down, but the key is at the Line of Scrimmage and finding a way to clamp down on the rush.

Bryce Young did throw 3 Touchdowns without an Interception in the upset of the Rams earlier this season, but it may be tough to replicate that now that the Rams Secondary will be more ready to deal with what this Quarter Back can throw at them.

The Rams also have to expect veteran Quarter Back Matthew Stafford to have a much cleaner game all around and there will be a real feeling that Los Angeles can find plenty of balance on this side of the ball.

Running the ball will just make sure the passing lanes remain open, although it is clear that the Rams will go as far as Matthew Stafford can take them.

Importantly key players are returning for the Playoff push with Davante Adams back to give Stafford another big option in the passing game and that will aid the Rams who have to respect how the Carolina Panthers Secondary were playing to close out the season. They limited Baker Mayfield (twice) and Sam Darnold in the passing game in the last three games, but Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams are another big test and this is a team that have been very good at throwing the ball all season.

The Rams also have the experience edge and it should be noted that first appearances in the Playoffs for Quarter Backs have been hugely challenging- those that have been set as the underdog, like Bryce Young, are just 14-22-1 against the spread in this spot, while those Quarter Backs are also just 23-43-1 against the spread when facing an opponent with a Quarter Back that has played in the post-season previously.

Last season the Texans showed that a Head Coach/Quarter Back combination who are both making first appearances in the Playoffs in those current roles can overcome the recent trend as they were able to upset the Los Angeles Chargers, but the Texans were more talented than this Carolina team have looked.

At the same time, you cannot ignore some recent big trends that make it less appealing to back the Rams here- road teams that have won at least 11 regular season games were just 1-3 against the spread in the Playoffs twelve months ago, while underdogs have been very productive in recent NFC Wild Card Games.

Road favourites are just 8-13-1 against the spread in the Wild Card Games played since 2008, which is hard to ignore, while hosts have been in very good form in the Saturday Wild Card Games in recent years with this being a 'short week'.

You would still expect the Rams to find a way to win here, but it does make asking them to cover a bit more of a question, especially with the line where it is.

However, Los Angeles do look the right side and outright winners have tended to cover far more often than not in recent Wild Card Games.

Conditions could be difficult for the Los Angeles Rams with the chance of there being rain and wind, but they should still have too much for a Panthers team that backed their way into the post-season. Add in the motivation to make up for the road loss in the regular season and it should be a clear thinking Los Angeles team arriving in Charlotte for this opening Wild Card Game and the Rams can win well.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: Rivalry games will always come with extra attention, but a Divisional rivalry taking place in the post-season will go down in folklore for whichever team is able to come out on top.

The home team have won the last five times a Divisional rivalry has been played in a Wild Card Game, but the Chicago Bears (11-6) and Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) split two regular season games and will have a lot of respect for what the other brings to the field.

There is plenty of familiarity coming out of the fact that the Bears and Packers are meeting for the third time in six weeks and second time in four weeks at Soldier Field.

Both teams would have loved to have had more momentum- the Bears finished with the Number 2 Seed in the NFC, but have lost two in a row, while the Green Bay Packers have lost four in a row. Key players have not played for a while with Quarter Back Jordan Love taking snaps for Green Bay for the first time since being knocked out of the last game here at Soldier Field, while the starters were resting in Week 18 to make sure they can overcome all ailments ahead of this Wild Card Game.

The Bears were beaten in Week 18 right here by the Detroit Lions, but earned the Number 2 Seed after the Philadelphia Eagles were beaten on the same day and that means they have this tough looking Wild Card Game to open on their return to the post-season.

It has been a really good first season as Head Coach for Ben Johnson, while he will use his experience Coaching with the Detroit Lions in recent years to help his young group come together. The Offensive game plan has certainly worked for Quarter Back Caleb Williams in his second season in the NFL, but he is making his first start in the post-season and has to overcome some serious trends going against him.

Much like Bryce Young earlier in the day, Caleb Williams will know Quarter Backs making the first Playoff start are just 15-23 against the spread in those outing and a really poor 23-43-1 against the spread when facing an opponent with a Quarter Back that has Playoff experience.

It looks like Chicago will be going into this one as the underdog so Williams will also have to overcome the 14-22-1 record against the spread that those 'rookie' Playoff Quarter Backs have faced.

His performances on the field have to give the Chicago Bears a huge amount of confidence and they will also note that Caleb Williams is going to be facing a banged up Green Bay Defensive unit that have shown plenty of signs of having worn down.

This season the Bears made a real effort to give the Quarter Back time and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that have given him Caleb Williams time when he has dropped back to throw. That is helped by the ability Williams has in scrambling away from pressure and still keeping his eyes down the field, while the Chicago Offensive Line have been very happy when it comes to run blocking and this is an area where they should be able to pummel an injury hit Green Bay Defensive Line.

A tandem at Running Back should mean Chicago can keep legs fresh as they look to make sure Caleb Williams is kept in third and manageable spots, and from there it will be a chance for Williams to shine.

Rome Odunze looks like he will be suiting up to offer up more downfield threat and the Bears will be confident they can have Offensive successes with a balanced play-calling day. Of course they should watch out for Trevon Diggs who the Green Bay Packers have been able to sign after he was cut at the end of the season by the Dallas Cowboys, but there will be a confidence in Chicago that the home town team can produce on this side of the ball.

The tougher test may actually be when the Green Bay Packers have the ball.

In the last few weeks there had been some improvement shown by the Chicago Defensive unit as injuries began to clear up, but they were struggling to get off the field in the last couple of defeats.

Now they have to take on the Green Bay Packers team that will have Jordan Love at Quarter Back and a number of the key Offensive starters hoping to be much healthier with a couple of weeks of rest under the feet. Jordan Love had 234 passing yards with 3 Touchdown passes in the first game against the Bears and the Quarter Back had begun in decent shape in the game here at Soldier Field before being knocked out of the game with concussion.

Josh Jacobs should be feeling much better having had a number of injury issues at the close of the regular season and he is going to be an important figure for the Green Bay Packers- they should be able to use the Offensive Line to establish the run and that is going to be important for this team to make sure they strike a balance on this side of the ball that makes it tough to stop them.

It should also mean Jordan Love has enough time to move the ball down the field before the Chicago pass rush can get to him and there are plenty of skill players that can step up for the road team.

In his absence it has been tough for the Packers to throw the ball with the same consistency as when they have Love at Quarter Back, but the expectation is that the Chicago Secondary is going to have some problems getting on top of all of the Receivers that can be targeted.

Recent seasons have seen the underdog put together strong returns in the Wild Card Round, while road favourites have a poor record.

The Number 2 Seed has also been dominant in the Wild Card Round since the expansion of the NFL Playoff, while the Chicago Bears have won the most recent regular season meeting between these NFC North rivals.

However, you cannot ignore how many things had to go in the Bears favour at Soldier Field to earn the victory, including recovering an onside kick and seeing the Packers turn the ball over when driving in Overtime.

There really wasn't much between the teams in the regular season, but Jordan Love's Playoff experience may end up making the difference.

We should see plenty of points assuming the weather conditions do not worsen significantly, although it will be cold as expected in January Chicago weather.

Once all is said and done, the Green Bay Packers may be the team who can avoid those late game mistakes that cost them three weeks ago and they may just be able to force a mistake from a first time Playoff Quarter Back and come out on top in this good looking Wild Card Game.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The NFL Playoffs look incredibly competitive this season and you could feasibly make a case for any of the fourteen teams to win the Super Bowl next month.

The AFC Playoff picture has been opened up by the elimination of the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, two teams that would have entered the season amongst the favourites to win it all.

One of the 'favourites' that will still be playing Football in January is the Buffalo Bills (12-5), but they failed to win the AFC East and that means the team has to head out on the road for at least the Wild Card Round. The Bills finished as the Number 6 Seed and they are a very narrow favourite to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) who won the AFC South in the first season under Head Coach Liam Coen.

After another inconsistent start to the season, the Jaguars won the last eight regular season games, which means they have the second longest winning streak in the NFL ahead of the Wild Card Round. The real credit has to be that the Jaguars have won those games under the pressure of being chased by the Houston Texans, who won nine games in a row, and that should mean Jacksonville are very much battle-hardened as they return to the post-season.

Head Coaches that are Coaching in the Playoffs for the first time are 10-6 against the spread in recent times under this situation and that should give Jacksonville belief, although it should be noted that they are facing a very experienced Buffalo team that have been so very close to reaching a Super Bowl.

However, the Bills will be disappointed that they have not quite been able to get over the line, while the standout statistic here is that Buffalo have not won any of the last nine road Playoff Games going back to 1992.

Quarter Back Josh Allen is absolutely the key to any success in January and February 2026 and he kept his streak of starts going when taking one snap in Week 18. However, Allen has been dealing with a foot issue and there is no doubt that the Buffalo Bills will need the Quarter Back to use his legs if they are going to find a way to win this Wild Card Game.

Running the ball in general is going to be key as Jacksonville will be hosting in unfamiliar conditions- instead of the warm weather that has been around, there is a forecast that this will be played in rainy conditions and that may mean teams are trying to pound the rock.

The Bills Offensive Line will be confident in being able to establish the run, although that will be very dependent on Josh Allen being able to scramble down the field. By having some of the Linebackers focusing on the Quarter Back, James Cook will end up having more spaces to exploit, but if Allen shows he is not quite at full health, the Jaguars may just believe the Defensive Line can force the Quarter Back to show off his passing ability.

Jacksonville have not really been able to pressure the Quarter Back, but the Secondary have played well and they should be confident that third and long spots will be difficult for the Bills to convert. Stopping Josh Allen completely is unlikely, but the Jaguars can feel they have won if the Quarter Back is not able to run as effectively as usual and has to rely on some of the Receivers to step up.

It is the injuries on the Buffalo Defensive unit that could be the real issue in this game and they may struggle to deal with what has become a balanced and effective Jacksonville Offensive unit.

Trevor Lawrence has played well and is capable of running the ball when needed, and it is a game in which the Jaguars Offensive Line can force spaces up front to keep the team in front of the chains. For much of the season, the Bills have been banged up and unable to stop the run with any consistency and the Jaguars are not going to shy away from pounding the ball against the Bills and making sure their own Quarter Back is kept in positive field position.

The arrival of Jakobi Meyers has been really important for the Jaguars and allowed Trevor Lawrence to display the passing that had encouraged this team to take him as the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

To be fair to the Bills Secondary, they have produced decent numbers this season, but some of that is down to the issues they have had up front in stopping the run. Recent outings have been against teams that have not thrown the ball nearly as well as Trevor Lawrence has been during this eight game winning run.

There are plenty of recent general Wild Card Game trends that favour the Buffalo Bills, while the experience factor cannot be dismissed.

Oddsmakers are clearly anticipating a close game and it would be a surprise if that is not the case.

Josh Allen's health is a real concern for the Buffalo Bills, while there is also pressure on the team knowing that the likes of Kansas City and Baltimore are not going to stand in the way. That can be a hindrance at times and the Jacksonville Jaguars look balanced Offensively, which could end up proving to be the big difference between the teams on the day.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: There is a belief that you want to be playing your best Football in January and so it was a surprise to see so many of the NFC Playoff teams losing in Week 18.

Both of these teams were beaten, although the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) will most certainly be feeling the pain more than most.

They went into a home game in Week 18 with a chance to not only win the NFC West, but a win would also have meant a Bye as the Number 1 Seed in the Playoff. Instead the 49ers slipped below the Los Angeles Rams and that means having to travel across the country and take on the defending Champions on their home turf.

It has been far from a vintage season for the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), but they did comfortably win the NFC East and losing in Week 18 is not something that overly concerned the Coaching staff. You have to believe that facing the Green Bay Packers rather than either of the NFC West Wild Card teams was something that the Eagles actively tried to avoid by sitting the starters in Week 18 and they certainly will believe they match up best with the injury hit 49ers.

Take nothing away from the season that the 49ers have produced, but they were not exactly given the most taxing of schedules and San Francisco struggled mightily against the Seattle Seahawks last week.

One of the big injuries late in the season has been suffered by Trent Williams and there is no doubt that the San Francisco Offensive Line is not nearly as strong without him. Perhaps Williams will try and suit up, but he could be limited and the 49ers may not get too much change out of this Philadelphia Defensive Line that have played the run pretty well all season.

Christian McCaffrey can still be a factor having maintained good health, but the Running Back may be a big threat leaking out of the backfield and offering Quarter Back Brock Purdy a security blanket.

Brock Purdy was receiving plenty of plaudits for some of his late season play, but the entire Offensive unit struggled against the Seahawks in Week 18 and this Philadelphia Defense has been the strength of the defending Champions.

Without a strong running game to back him, Brock Purdy is going to be put under pressure by this Eagles pass rush and throwing against this Secondary from third and long will be asking a lot without the kind of Receivers San Francisco have had in recent seasons.

Those years would have also been at a time when the 49ers could rely on the Defensive unit to keep them in games, but to say they have been banged on this side of the ball would be a huge understatement.

Over the last couple of weeks, the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks have given the Philadelphia Eagles the blueprint they need on the Offensive side of the ball- both teams have run the ball very well behind the Offensive Line and the Eagles and Saquon Barkley should be able to pick up from where those teams left off.

No one will suggest Barkley has been nearly as strong as last season, but the Eagles ended the regular season running the ball with more confidence and also have Quarter Back Jalen Hurts who is capable of moving the chains with his legs too.

This should make things pretty comfortable for Hurts when he does drop back to throw the ball downfield.

The 49ers Secondary has been exposed by the lack of a pass rush up front and Jalen Hurts will have plenty of time to target the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, while Dallas Goedert continues to make big plays when needed.

It has been an inconsistent season for the Eagles Offense, but this looks a 'get right' opportunity.

Number 3 Seeds have not been the best teams to back in recent Wild Card seasons, while NFC underdogs have been thriving against the spread.

This has to be noted, but in the last 34 Playoff Games involving a Road team that has more regular season wins than the host, the Home team have a 22-11-1 record against the spread.

Hosts are also 16-8 against the spread in the last four seasons of Wild Card action and this looks like a game in which the Philadelphia Eagles should be the stronger team by some margin on both sides of the ball. As long as the Offensive unit have a semi-decent outing, they should have too much for an injury hit visiting team that have overachieved this season.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: Winning the AFC East and ending the dominance of the Buffalo Bills and securing the Number 2 Seed in the Conference means the New England Patriots (14-3) should be full of confidence. They have a Head Coach in Mike Vrabel who has had considerable success in the role with the Tennessee Titans, but who also understands what winning looks like in New England and this is a dangerous team.

However, the Patriots are going to have a first time Playoff Quarter Back in Drake Maye and it has been stated multiple times that those players have tended to struggle in the first starts in the post-season. That has been particularly evident when they have been opposed by a Quarter Back that has Playoff experience, and this is the situation for Maye and the Patriots when taking on the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6).

A Week 17 loss to the Houston Texans ended the Chargers hopes of finishing above the Denver Broncos in the AFC West and they rested all starters in Week 18 for the loss to the Number 1 Seed.

That won't matter and there are plenty of players in the Chargers locker room that feel that the week off between competitive games will have done them the world of good. One of those is Quarter Back Justin Herbert who has been playing through a broken hand on his non-throwing hand and who admitted that not being hit in Week 18 has helped him feel so much better.

All of his experience is going to be needed if the Chargers are going to upset the odds and beat the New England Patriots here in Foxboro.

For much of the season it has been Justin Herbert carrying the team on his back, but the Offensive Line has been decimated and it is very hard to win games consistently without the strong support up front. It has led to Herbert being under pressure all of the time and 54 Sacks backs up that statement as the Chargers look to head to New England with backup Tackles.

Trey Lance absorbed six more Sacks in relief of Justin Herbert last week, but having the starter back is going to help and the Chargers will certainly feel they can pummel the ball on the ground to at least keep the team in third and manageable spots. That should make things a bit more comfortable in the passing game, while the Chargers may believe they can control the pass rush at the Line of Scrimmage if they are pounding the rock with some success.

The real key is on the Defensive side of the ball where the Chargers have played well on season.

In particular the Chargers Defensive Line have really been able to clamp down on the run and they need to make sure they are able to at least give New England something to think about. The Offensive Line has been able to keep Drake Maye in third and manageable spots on the field, but it may not be as easy to do that against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Drake Maye has not been afforded a lot of protection when he has stepped back to throw the ball and so the Patriots need to make sure they are running the ball with some effectiveness.

The Quarter Back will have some holes to exploit in the Secondary, but this is a tough Los Angeles Defense and they can keep this one close against Drake Maye.

Nothing will be easy for the Chargers, but the experience of the Head Coach and Quarter Back can see them potentially pull off the upset.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 9.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 48-58, - 15.05 Units (106 Units Staked, - 14.20% Yield)